"During the early 1990s, the military intelligence in Sudan was responsible for the arbitrary arrest and detention, enforced disappearance, and torture or other ill-treatment of numerous people in Sudan. The Arab League's decision to appoint as the head of the observer mission a Sudanese general on whose watch severe human rights violations were committed in Sudan risks undermining the League's efforts so far and seriously calls into question the mission's credibility."Al-Dabi became Sudan's ambassador to Qatar in 2003, and it's probably that post that earned him the leadership of the Arab League monitor team. However, the suspicion is that he'll be sympathetic to the Syrian regime's violence, since he participated in the violence of Sudan's regime. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8983170/Syria-credibility-of-Arab-Leagues-General-Mohammed-Ahmed-al-Dabi-questioned.html "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria accused of hiding hundreds of prisoners from monitors" Syria's opposition figures, led by Human Rights Watch, have accused the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad of moving hundreds of prisoners to military sites to hide them from Arab League monitors. Syria is not permitting the Arab League monitors to visit military sites. <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/2011/12/27/world/meast/syria-unrest/ "CNN"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Egypt's police conduct raids on foreign rights groups in Cairo" The Egyptian police raided more than a dozen offices of local and foreign rights groups as part of a probe into alleged illicit foreign funding of political groups. At least two US rights groups - the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and the International Republican Institute (IRI) - were targeted in the operation. The U.S. State Department said it was "deeply concerned" about the raids. <#stdurl http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/egypt/story-e6frg6so-1226233144152 "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey's warplanes kill 36 Kurdish civilians in Iraq by mistake" <#inc ww2010.pic g111229c.jpg right "" "The families of the 36 smugglers killed in the Turkey's airstrikes retrieve the bodies"#> Turkey has been pursuing Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) terrorists in Iraq, and bombing their camps. Airstrikes by Turkey's warplanes in northern Iraq on Thursday killed 36 people who turned out to be civilians. The Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) initially said that, based on information from the National Intelligence Organization (MIT), there were no civilians in the region targeted by the airstrikes. Later in the day, the said the incident was the result of an "operational accident" that was caused by a mistake or intelligence failure. The victims were apparently civilian smugglers moving gas, cigarettes and sugar from Iraq into Turkey, and had no connection to the PKK. This incident will sharpen the political debate in Turkey over what some see as an internal contradiction in the views of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who views Hamas in Gaza as victims, but views the PKK as terrorists. <#stdurl http://www.todayszaman.com/news-267130-questions-abound-over-airstrike-that-killed-36-in-southeast.html "Zaman (Istanbul)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey's Kurds riot in Istanbul following airstrikes" More than 2,000 Kurds demonstrated in Istanbul against the Turkish authorities following the fatal airstrikes that killed 36 civilian Kurds. Some chanted pro-PKK slogans. The protest degenerated into clashes with riot police who had been deployed in large numbers, and used water cannon and tear gas. <#stdurl http://www.euronews.net/2011/12/29/kurdish-writer-punish-those-responsible-for-air-strike/ "EuroNews"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Deeply divided, Greece's new government has ground to a halt" The government of interim Prime Minister Lucas Papademos has completely ground to a halt, and is unable to proceed with even the most urgent measures. Reform measures that were promised as a condition of further international bailout money are not being implemented. The privatization program has stopped, as the government is not selling government-owned assets. Labor markets have not been deregulated. The program of public sector layoffs is a fiasco, with ony 1,000 of 30,000 planned layoffs completed. The modernization of the civil service has been delayed. The planned third round of pension cuts has halted. Corruption is widespread, as politicians have unexplained fortunes in their bank accounts. According to Papademos,
"Now the issue is simply whether we remain in Europe or not. The governing parties have an obligation to work together honestly to finally banish the nightmare of a return to the drachma. If this government doesn't get it right, Greece will go hungry."His dramatic appeal has been ignored. Greece will have a €14.5 billion bond payment due in March. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,805975,00.html "Spiegel"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1144 "30-Dec-11 World View -- Turkey's warplanes kill 36 Kurdish civilians in Iraq by mistake"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111229 29-Dec-11 World View -- U.S. Fifth Fleet threatens Iran with retaliation in Strait of Hormuz =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111229.head 29-Dec-11 World View -- U.S. Fifth Fleet threatens Iran with retaliation in Strait of Hormuz =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111229.keys Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-il, Kim Jong-un, South Korea, Iran, Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Navy, Fifth Fleet, Ali Khamenei, Israel, Benny Gantz, Operation Cast Lead, Mohamed ElBaradei, Egypt, Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, SCAF, Muslim Brotherhood, Nigeria, Boko Haram, Samoa, international date line, Greek Orthodox, Armenian Apostolic, Bethlehem, Church of the Nativity =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111229.loc ww2010.weblog.log1112 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111229.date 29-Dec-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111229.txt1 Israel's army chief says war with Gaza inevitable =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111229.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>.
"From time to time, we face rocket fire from the Gaza Strip and we understand the continuing buildup from the Egypt region. ... I believe that the State of Israel cannot continue to live under the active threat of Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Sooner or later, there will be no escape from conducting a significant operation. The IDF knows how to operate in a determined, decisive and offensive manner against terrorists in the Gaza Strip."Gantz's statement was made on their anniversary of Operation Cast Lead, Israel's previous ground invasion of Gaza, launched on December 27, 2008. Turning to more local matters, Gantz said that in certain circumstances and during non-official military events, the IDF would be prepared to exempt religious soldiers from participation if they are uncomfortable hearing women sing. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=251195 "Jerusalem Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.S. and Egypt in secret talks on Israel" Mohamed ElBaradei, who won a Nobel Peace Prize when he headed the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency, and is now a candidate for president of Egypt, said that the United States is doing whatever it can to stop Egypt from annulling the 1979 peace agreement with Israel. Referring to recent meetings between Washington officials and Egypt;'s ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), he said:
"The negotiations were completely secret and confidential. What the supreme military council said was that the talks were about bilateral and mutual relations, but I believe that Americans wanted to ensure that the deals signed between Egypt and Israel will remain intact if Islamists ascend to power."The two Islamist parties affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafi movement have won the majority of votes in the first two rounds of elections in the country. <#stdurl http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/151161 "Israel National News"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Nigerian Christians call Christmas bombings a 'declaration of war'" Nigeria's Christians are losing faith that the government will protect them from attacks by Islamic extremists and will "respond appropriately" to future killings, the country's leading church group warned Wednesday. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e111226 ""26-Dec-11 World View -- Christmas church bombings by Boko Haram trigger clashes in Nigeria""#>) In an apparent revenge attack, attackers threw a bomb into an Arabic school in mainly Christian southern Nigeria, wounding six children and an adult. <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/2011/12/28/world/africa/nigeria-church-bombings/ "CNN"#> and <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5h-48BisuNb4Q1cFfRn5MNQq5A7xA?docId=CNG.4e4702fabf3f2b684a3a7bcddb45299f.411 "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Samoa will skip a day, as international date line moves" What date comes after December 29? If you're in the tiny South Pacific nation of Samoa this year, then the date that comes after December 29 is December 31. December 30 will not exist. This will occur because the international date line, that separates one day from the next, will move east, putting Samoa west of it. The reason for the change is that Samoa wants to align its calendar with the Asians, who are their main trading partners. <#stdurl http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501712_162-57349492/samoa-to-skip-a-day-cross-international-dateline/ "AP"#> What I find fascinating about this story, and haven't seen discussed anywhere, is not that December 30 will disappear, but that Friday will disappear, and the day of the week will go from Thursday to Saturday. This should be completely unacceptable to Jews, Christians, and Muslims who follow the teachings of the Old Testament, where it says that certain things happen every seven days. There is no provision to skip a day, which means, for example, that Samoan Christian church services from now on should be on Monday. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Orthodox priests in Bethlehem attack each other with broomsticks" <#inc ww2010.pic g111228b.jpg right "" "Broomstick brawl between rival clergymen in Bethlehem (BBC)"#> As the January 6 date of the Orthodox Christmas approaches, the Church of the Nativity, believed by many to be the birthplace of Jesus Christ, in the West Bank town of Bethlehem, is being cleaned and prepared. On Wednesday, a brawl erupted between Greek Orthodox and Armenian Apostolic clergy, with each side attacking the other with broomsticks. The two denominations each control sections of the church and fiercely guard their turf. The violence broke out when the sides accused each other of crossing into their territory. Palestinian police officers had to intervene in the fight, and separate the two sides. <#stdurl http://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/clergymen-clash-at-birthplace-1277591.html "AP"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1143 "29-Dec-11 World View -- U.S. Fifth Fleet threatens Iran with retaliation in Strait of Hormuz"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111228 28-Dec-11 World View -- Thousands of Israelis protest ultra-Orthodox Jewish extremists =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111228.head 28-Dec-11 World View -- Thousands of Israelis protest ultra-Orthodox Jewish extremists =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111228.keys Generational Dynamics, Orthodox Jews, Beit Shemesh, Israel, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Taliban, Doha, Qatar, Hamid Karzai, European Central Bank, ECB, interbank lending, Italy, Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Seyed Mohammad Marandi, Why This Kolaveri Di, Kolaveri, Tamil =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111228.loc ww2010.weblog.log1112 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111228.date 28-Dec-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111228.txt1 Last week's ECB euro liquidity flood is failing badly =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111228.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>.
"[such an embargo would create a very difficult situation globally] because that would mean the halt of oil exports from the Middle East and that would have a devastating effect on the global economy. "The best [strategy for the West] is to quit threatening Iran and trying to punish ordinary Iranians and to try to behave more reasonably in a more respectable manner, and tensions in the region would decrease. The American behavior is creating a dangerous situation not only for Iran but for the whole globe. The United States is basically pushing things into the direction in which everyone is going to pay a heavy price."<#stdurl http://rt.com/news/iran-oil-sanctions-threat-783/ "RT"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Why This Kolaveri Di?" For today's musical entertainment, we have <#stdurl https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YR12Z8f1Dh8 "Why This Kolaveri Di,"#> a song that's surprised everyone by becoming a viral hit throughout Asia and the world, since it was released on November 18. Sung by Tamil star Dhanush, the song is in both Tamil and English. The lyrics are somewhat controversial, as the word "Kolaveri" means "murderous rage," but it's a slang word used by young people to shut someone up. The song's lyrics depict the anguish of a man who was just dumped by his girlfriend. It's a very catchy song.
[youtube YR12Z8f1Dh8 nolink]
<#stdurl http://www.hindustantimes.com/Entertainment/RegionalFlavours/Kolaveri-Di-crosses-10-million-mark/Article1-775973.aspx "Hindustan Times"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1141 "28-Dec-11 World View -- Thousands of Israelis protest ultra-Orthodox Jewish extremists"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111227 27-Dec-11 World View -- Iran's naval units begin main stage of ten-day war games =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111227.head 27-Dec-11 World View -- Iran's naval units begin main stage of ten-day war games =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111227.keys Generational Dynamics, Syria, Arab League, Bashar al-Assad, U.N. Security Council, Homs, Mustashar Mahgoub, Iran, Israel, Orthodox Jews, Beit Shemesh, Armenian genocide, Turkey, Gaza, Freedom Flotilla, France, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Gulf of Aden, Iraq, Muqtada al-Sadr, Nouri al-Maliki, Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111227.loc ww2010.weblog.log1112 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111227.date 27-Dec-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111227.txt1 Ultra-orthodox Jews in Israel clash with police over gender issues =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111227.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>."Our people managed to take four observers from their Damascus Hotel (Sham Hotel) without the notification of the Syrian government on Sunday night to show them the reality of what is happening inside the neighbourhoods of Baba Amr and Khailidyeh. While we were touring the area the shelling started and he was wounded by the fire of the Syrian security forces."The Arab League is denying that any of their monitors have been wounded, but whether true or not, this situation shows how the violence in Syria is entering a much more dangerous phase. No one seriously believes that allowing the monitors to enter Syria is anything but a stalling ploy by al-Assad's regime, and that al-Assad intends to control the monitors by using "minders" to restrict their movements. Some reports indicate that monitors are being prevented from using satellite phones to talk to activists. These actions are going to infuriate the Arab League monitors, and motivate them to make unauthorized trips, risking monitor casualties that could cause an Arab League country to intervene militarily. <#stdurl http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/middleeast/news/article_1682774.php/LEAD-Arab-League-monitor-reported-injured-in-Syria-as-25-killed "Deutsche Presse-Agentur (DPA)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria releases Iranian prisoners to make room for more Syrians" A source from Iran is saying that Syrian authorities have released thousands of Iranian prisoners in Syrian jails, mainly on drugs and riot charges. "A convict who was handed a life sentence for drug dealing has recently returned to Iran and confirmed that all other Iranian prisoners were released and are all now back in Iran," according to the Iranian source. According to the source, this unexpected step aims at emptying Syrian prisons that are now ready to receive as many revolutionaries and political activists as possible. Syria's opposition confirms that the number of political detainees has so far reached 100,000, the majority of which kept in deplorable conditions. <#stdurl http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/12/25/184465.html?PHPSESSID=0nvb02d4juo3sajrme1urhbf13 "Al-Arabiya"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Ultra-orthodox Jews in Israel clash with police over gender issues" <#inc ww2010.pic g111226b.jpg right "" "An ultra-Orthodox Jewish man argues with a secular man during the protests (Reuters)"#> Approximately 300 ultra-Orthodox Jews began chasing police officers, hurled rocks at them, and burned trashcans on Monday after police were called to remove a sign on a main street that orders the separation of men and women in a neighborhood in Beit Shemesh, a town near Jerusalem. On Sunday, a Channel 2 news team was attacked and beaten by 200 ultra-Orthodox men at the same location on the street where the sign that was removed had been hanging. Other recent incidents including spitting at an 8-year-old girl for "dressing immodestly," and attacking a woman who refused to move to the back of the bus. The ultra-Orthodox Jews appear to want to impose gender restrictions similar to those imposed by hardline Muslim Sharia law. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/8978325/Clashes-erupt-between-police-and-ultra-Orthodox-Jews-near-Jerusalem.html "Telegraph"#> and <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/ultra-orthodox-israel-police-clash-in-beit-shemesh-officer-wounded-1.403743 "Haaretz"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel politicians call for recognition of Armenian genocide" Politicians from the left and right in Israel's Knesset (parliament) are calling on the government to officially recognition the 1915 war in Turkey as a Turkish genocide of Armenians. This occurs just after France's National Assembly passed a bill making denial of Armenian genocide a crime punishable by a year in jail, causing a diplomatic crisis between Turkey and France. Relations between Israel and Turkey have been on a downhill ride since May 31, 2010, when a confrontation between Israel's armed forces and a Gaza "Freedom Flotilla" resulted in the deaths of nine Turkish citizens. The Knesset's current motion is not new, having been placed on the agenda in 1989. However, Israel's Foreign Ministry said that it would be irresponsible to make any official declarations on the genocide matter. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=250974 "Jerusalem Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iran's naval units begin main stage of ten-day war games" Iran's navy has completed on Monday the preliminary stage of ten-day naval war games to exercise control of the Strait of Hormuz. Submarines, warships, missile-firing destroyers, coast-to-sea missile systems, drones, and electronic warfare equipment will be tested during the exercises with live fire. The war games would be staged in a large area from the east side of the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf of Oman to the northern Indian Ocean. In terms of intelligence, the maneuvers would cover a vast area stretching from the northern Indian Ocean to the Gulf of Aden. <#stdurl http://www.tehrantimes.com/politics/93923-iranian-naval-units-complete-preliminary-stage-of-war-games "Tehran Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr escalates Iraq's political crisis" The political party loyal to radical Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr called Monday for the dissolution of Iraq’s parliament and new elections. Iraq plunged into a new sectarian political crisis last week when Shia prime minister Nouri al-Maliki called for the arrest of the country’s top Sunni political figure, Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi. Al-Hashemi is currently hiding out in Iraq's Kurdish north, out of reach of al-Maliki. The political crisis has been escalating just days after the last American troops withdrew, and was worsened by a huge terrorist attack in central Baghdad. <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/sadrists-call-for-new-elections-in-iraq-as-political-turmoil-escalates/2011/12/26/gIQAL5m5IP_story.html "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Yemen's president Saleh to come to U.S. for medical care" The administration has decided to allow Yemen's president Ali Abdullah Saleh to travel to the U.S. for medical treatment of medical problems stemming from a near-fatal bomb blast in June at the mosque in his presidential complex. The decision is considered controversial because Yemen's protesters would like to see him remain in Yemen for prosecution. UPDATE: The White House later denied this report, saying that no decision had been made. <#stdurl http://www.politico.com/politico44/2011/12/no-decision-yet-on-yemen-108745.html "Politico"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1139 "27-Dec-11 World View -- Iran's naval units begin main stage of ten-day war games"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111226 26-Dec-11 World View -- Christmas church bombings by Boko Haram trigger clashes in Nigeria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111226.head 26-Dec-11 World View -- Christmas church bombings by Boko Haram trigger clashes in Nigeria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111226.keys Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Karachi, Imran Khan, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey, Nicolas Sarkozy, France, genocide, Ali Babacan, Armenia, Nigeria, Boko Haram, Abuja, Jos, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, AQIM, al-Shabaab, Somalia, Maiduguri =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111226.loc ww2010.weblog.log1112 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111226.date 26-Dec-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111226.txt1 Hope and change Pakistan candidate Imran Khan draws huge crowd in Karachi =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111226.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>.
[youtube cditC3T93dE nolink]
In the 1960s-70s, Karachi Pakistan at this time of the year used to be engulfed with festive spirit, Christmas trees, celebratory lights, figurines of baby Jesus, Santa Claus and Poinsettia flowers. The Christmas of today, much like everything else in Karachi, has changed immensely. The decorations and props are replaced by metal detectors, police patrol cars and scanners, as Taliban-linked terrorists attack Christians and Shia Muslims alike. This year, however, Christians in Karachi are celebrating Christmas in St. Peter's Church of Karachi, the largest Christian Church in Pakistan, with a capacity of 5,000 worshipers. The domed, three-story building that towers over the sprawling slum is a Roman Catholic church that was completed in November at a cost of approximately $4 million. <#stdurl http://www.aljazeera.com/video/asia/2011/12/2011122413512197710.html "Al-Jazeera"#> and Dawn (Pakistan) and <#stdurl http://www.goddiscussion.com/87973/pakistans-persecuted-roman-catholics-find-hope-at-towering-church-constructed-in-slum/ "God Discussion (blog)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Thousands celebrate Christmas in Bethlehem" Tens of thousands of tourists and Christian pilgrims packed the West Bank town of Bethlehem for Christmas Eve celebrations Saturday, for the highest turnout in more than a decade. The Israeli military said that some 100,000 visitors, including foreigners and Arab Christians from Israel, had reached Bethlehem, up from 70,000 the previous year. Thousands of Palestinians from inside West Bank also converged on the town. "We love to share this holiday with our Christian brothers," said Amal Ayash, 46, who came to Manger Square with her three daughters, all of them covered in veils. "It is a Palestinian holiday and we love to come here and watch." <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hrYycwHR_UO2PBLXSynITL7XqE0Q?docId=94ba61956b6849b4985ee109f8635550 "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "EU president Herman Van Rompuy spreads Christmas joy with 'World Book of Happiness'" <#inc ww2010.pic g111224c.jpg right "" "Herman Van Rompuy (left) spreads happiness to French president Nicolas Sarkozy"#> European Union president Herman Van Rompuy wants temporarily to put aside worries about failing economies, the collapsing euro currency, and the financial crisis. He's urging world leaders to keep their spirits up and look on the bright side. He's sending copies of the "World Book of Happiness," containing essays and haikus on happiness, to 200 world leaders. The essays are from 50 different nations across the world. EU leaders may pay particular attention to a segment entitled, "create your own currency that no one else can buy," while another section of the book suggests that "money can buy happiness if we spend it on each other." By the way, you can buy the book online if you want to cheer yourself up. <#stdurl http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2075766/Euro-president-sends-200-world-leaders-collection-essays-happiness.html?ito=feeds-newsxml "Daily Mail"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Libya celebrates independence from Italy" Italy ruled Libya as a colony from October, 1911, until Libya declared independence on December 24, 1951. When Muammar Gaddafi took power trough a coup on December 1, 1969, and became dictator for 41 years, he made it illegal to celebrate Libya's independence from Italy. So on Saturday, for the first time in decades, Libya is able to celebrate Independence Day. <#stdurl http://www.tunisia-live.net/2011/12/24/today-libya-celebrates-independence-from-italy/ "Tunisia Live"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Gorbachev asks Putin to resign before massive protests over election fraud" <#inc ww2010.pic g111224b.jpg right "" "Huge Saturday rally in Moscow on Sakharov Avenue, named after Nobel Peace Prize-winning late Soviet dissident Andrei Sakharov (Ria Novosti)"#> Tens of thousands of protesters rallied in Moscow on Saturday to demand new parliamentary elections, following a stream of revelations from around the country that massive election fraud was committed in the December 4 elections. Vladimir Putin's United Russia party won just a hair over 50% of the vote, but opponents believe that figure would have been much lower without election fraud. The protests were the largest that Moscow has seen since the 1991 protests that brought down the Soviet Union, at that time led by Mikhail Gorbachev. Gorbachev on Friday called on Putin to resign, and for the annulment of the recent election, due to "numerous falsifications and rigging," with results that "do not reflect the will of the people." <#stdurl http://en.ria.ru/russia/20111224/170465766.html "Ria Novosti"#> and <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/8977219/Mikhail-Gorbachev-calls-for-Putin-to-resign.html "The Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Former Russian finance minister warns of 'revolution'" Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin and Putin ally warned that the coming March 4 presidential elections must be more democratic, "otherwise it’s revolution, otherwise we will lose this chance which we have today -- a peaceful transformation, and the trust which the new elected government must receive." Putin last week insisted that the results of the parliamentary vote were fair and accused protesters of being funded by foreign powers. <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-24/putin-faces-more-mass-protests-kudrin-warns-of-revolution.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Drone strikes in Pakistan suspended for six weeks" An unnamed Obama administration official acknowledged on Saturday an ongoing six-week suspension of drone strikes in Pakistan. The suspension gives time for the administration to try to repair relations with Pakistan, after 24 Pakistani soldiers were killed by a drone strike in November. A Department of Defense investigation blamed the killings on miscommunications between U.S. and Pakistani forces, but Pakistani officials continue to insist that there was a deliberate American decision to kill the Pakistani soldiers. Other possible reasons for the suspension of drone strikes could include poor weather, and the ongoing need to develop precise information about new targets. <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/2011/12/24/world/asia/pakistan-us-drones/ "CNN"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1133 "25-Dec-11 World View -- Europe spreads Christmas joy with the 'World Book of Happiness'"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111224 24-Dec-11 World View -- Syria's regime may be responsible for suicide bombings =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111224.head 24-Dec-11 World View -- Syria's regime may be responsible for suicide bombings =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111224.keys Generational Dynamics, Damascus, Syria, Arab League, Bashar al-Assad, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Great Successor, Turkey, France, National Assembly, genocide, Armenia, Nicolas Sarkozy, Paul Sarkozy, Algeria, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkophobia, Islamophobia =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111224.loc ww2010.weblog.log1112 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111224.date 24-Dec-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111224.txt1 Turkey accuses France of genocide in Algeria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111224.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>."In Algeria, an estimated 15 percent of the population had been subjected to the massacre of French from 1945 on. This is genocide. Algerians were burnt en masse in ovens. They were martyred mercilessly. If French President Mr. (Nicolas) Sarkozy does not know about this genocide, he should ask his father Paul Sarkozy. His father Paul Sarkozy served as a soldier in the French legion in Algeria in 1940s."Sarkozy responded, "In every circumstance we must remain cool headed and calm. France alone determines its politics. France does not ask for authorization. France has convictions: human rights, the respect for history. Every country must make the effort to revisit its past. France does not give lessons to anyone nor does it receive lessons from anyone." <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/2011/12/23/world/europe/france-armenia-genocide/index.html "CNN"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1131 "24-Dec-11 World View -- Syria's regime may be responsible for suicide bombings"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111223 23-Dec-11 World View -- Jordan helps Hamas break with Syria and Iran =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111223.head 23-Dec-11 World View -- Jordan helps Hamas break with Syria and Iran =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111223.keys Generational Dynamics, Hamas, Palestinian Authority, Fatah, Khaled Meshaal, Mahmoud Abbs, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Jordan, Iran, Qatar, Hizbollah, Turkey, Lebanon, France, Armenia, genocide, Nicolas Sarkozy, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, xenophobia, Turkophobia, Islamophobia, Israel, South Sudan, Sudan, Juba, Khartoum, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Uganda, Salva Kiir, Greece, haircut =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111223.loc ww2010.weblog.log1112 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111223.date 23-Dec-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111223.txt1 Hedge funds threaten to sue over Greece haircut =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111223.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>.
"As of now, we are canceling bilateral level political, economic and military activities. We are suspending all kinds of political consultations with France, [and] bilateral military cooperation, joint maneuvers are canceled as of now. This is using Turkophobia and Islamophobia to gain votes, and it raises concerns regarding these issues not only in France but all Europe. [Turkey could] not remain silent in the face of this. I am asking now if there is freedom of expression and freedom of thought in France, and I will reply myself, no, there is not."The bill has not become law, as it still has to pass France's upper chamber prior to the end of the Parliamentary session in February. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16306376 "BBC"#> and <#stdurl http://www.todayszaman.com/news-266486-turkey-announces-sanctions-on-france-recalls-envoy-over-genocide-bill.html "Zaman (Istanbul)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel's relationship with South Sudan grows increasingly warm" The visit to Israel this week by South Sudan president Salva Kiir was kept under the radar, but it represents a new Africa-centric direction in Israel's foreign policy. South Sudan (capital: Juba) is a predominantly Christian country that seceded from the Muslim-dominated Sudan (capital: Khartoum) in July of this year, and is the newest country in the United Nations. Israel has a decades old relationship with the South Sudanese as part of a Christianity alliance that Israel has cultivated with Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Uganda, to counter Sudan and other Muslim countries. Israel has recently announced that it will participate militarily in Kenya's fight against the al-Shabaab militants in Somalia. However, Kiir's visit to Israel is triggering alarm in Khartoum, because the visit is "an issue of concern because of its possible repercussions on the national interest and national security of the country." <#stdurl http://www.afriquejet.com/israel-south-sudan-presidents-visit-to-tel-aviv-worries-sudan-2011122230235.html "Afrique en Ligne"#> and <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Editorials/Article.aspx?id=250634 "Jerusalem Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Hedge funds threaten to sue over Greece haircut" <#inc ww2010.pic g111222c.jpg right "" "Lucas Papademos on Thursday (Kathimerini)"#> The July 21 bailout of Greece that the eurozone finance ministers announced with enormous gaiety and fanfare left a number of details remaining to be worked out, and agreement on those details is still far away. At that time, it was decided that anyone holding Greek debt would have to take a 21% "haircut," meaning that they would lose 21% of their investment -- and they would do so "voluntarily," so that a legal credit event wouldn't occur. Later, the Europeans demanded the private creditors (mostly banks and hedge funds) increase their voluntary haircut to 50%. But now, a Spanish hedge fund has walked out of the "voluntary" negotiations over demands that the 50% be increased to a larger amount. Insiders indicate that negotiations are tense and far from a deal. There's a hard deadline of March, when Greece faces a €14.5 billion bond redemption and it will need new financing if it is to pay out on the bonds when they mature. <#stdurl http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/12/20/greece-bonds-idINDEE7BJ0CF20111220 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece's PM seeks to ward off a governmental crisis" Talks have collapsed among the parties in Greece's interim caretaker government over plans to cut auxiliar pensions, in order to meet the austerity reforms demanded by the country's international creditors. Some opposition figures are demanding that Prime Minister Lucas Papademos dissolve the government and call for snap elections, but Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos says that snap elections are out of the questions, since the negotiations for the amount of the "haircut" on Greek bonds are at a crucial stage. <#stdurl http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_22/12/2011_419747 "Kathimerini"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1126 "23-Dec-11 World View -- Jordan helps Hamas break with Syria and Iran"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111222 22-Dec-11 World View -- Defense Sec'y Panetta threatens Iran over nuclear weapons =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111222.head 22-Dec-11 World View -- Defense Sec'y Panetta threatens Iran over nuclear weapons =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111222.keys Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Javert, Les Misérables, Nouri al-Maliki, Tareq al-Hashemi, Iraqiya bloc, European Central Bank, ECB, Greece, Spain, Italy, Long term refinancing operation, LTRO, Iran, Israel, Leon Panetta, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Salafi Nour Party =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111222.loc ww2010.weblog.log1112 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111222.date 22-Dec-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111222.txt1 Massive European bailout operation appears to be failing =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111222.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>.
"Well, we share the same common concern. The United States does not want Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. That's a red line for us and that's a red line, obviously, for the Israelis. If we have to do it we will deal with it. If they proceed and we get intelligence that they are proceeding with developing a nuclear weapon then we will take whatever steps necessary to stop it."He added that "no options are off the table," including military steps, and that a nuclear weapon in Iran is "unacceptable." <#stdurl http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18563_162-57345322/panetta-iran-will-not-be-allowed-nukes/ "CBS News"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Egypt's Salafi Nour party affirms support for Israel treaty" The spokesman of Egypt's ultraconservative Salafi Nour Party said in a Wednesday interview that the party is committed to agreements signed by previous Egyptian governments, including the 1979 peace treaty with Israel. The interview countered Israeli fears that Islamist parties would seek to cut ties with Israel. "We are not opposed to the agreement, and we are saying that Egypt is committed to the agreements that previous Egyptian government have signed," said the spokesman. He added that he supports changes to the agreement, but "the place for that is the negotiation table." Long-time readers who recall my discussions of the Muslim Brotherhood earlier this year will not be surprised by this development. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110203 ""Violence between protester factions kills three in Egypt""#> from February.) Abrogating the treaty would be almost a declaration of war with Israel, and the Egyptian people have no taste for such a war. The youthful protests are angry at the ruling army council, not at Israel. <#stdurl http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/egypts-ultraconservatives-support-israel-treaty-15206047 "AP"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1125 "22-Dec-11 World View -- Defense Sec'y Panetta threatens Iran over nuclear weapons"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111221 21-Dec-11 World View -- Arrest warrant for Iraq's VP plunges Iraq's government into crisis =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111221.head 21-Dec-11 World View -- Arrest warrant for Iraq's VP plunges Iraq's government into crisis =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111221.keys Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Tahrir Square, Mina Danial, Coptic Christians, North Korea, Kim Jong-il, Iraq, Tareq al-Hashemi, Saleh al-Mutlak, Nuri al-Maliki, Iraqiya bloc, Iyad Allawi, Jund al-Khilafah, JaK, Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, H5N1, bird flu, National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity, NSABB =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111221.loc ww2010.weblog.log1112 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111221.date 21-Dec-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111221.txt1 Congress goes home for the holidays =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111221.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>.
"Iraqiya has decided today to boycott sessions of cabinet. This decision is based on the deterioration of the political process, and to ensure that the country will not head towards a catastrophe if Maliki's dictatorship continues."Al-Maliki has demanded that al-Mutlak be sacked. Iyad Allawi, the former prime minister who now leads the Sunni-backed Iraqiya bloc in parliament, likened the prime minister to Saddam Hussein. <#stdurl http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2011/Dec-19/157339-vp-arrest-warrant-plunges-iraq-into-crisis.ashx "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Jund al-Khilafah (JaK) raises terror threat in Kazakhstan" <#inc ww2010.pic g111113c.jpg right "" "Central Asia, including Kazakhstan, highlighting Islamist groups in North Caucasus, Uzbekistan, Xinjiang"#> The al-Qaeda linked terrorist group Jund al-Khilafah (JaK) is stepping up its terrorist attacks in Kazakhstan in reaction a series of measures by President Nursultan Nazarbayev announced early this year to impose several restrictions on the Muslim and Christian religions. These measures include government censorship of religious literature, approval for opening mosques and churches, and bans on prayers within any state organization. In addition, the government has been cracking down on women's head scarves or hijabs and men's beards. JaK also has global ambitions, and explains its name "Jund al-Khilafa" as follows:
"This name reminds Muslims of their duty to revive the Islamic Caliphate as a system. ... It is the system of Shariah-based governance that must be prevail in every Muslim country from the east to the west. ... We believe that the region of Central Asia, in addition to the Islamic Maghreb [North Africa] and Yemen, are candidates to be the nucleus for the return of the Caliphate State in the future."JaK's objective in Kazakhstan is to end the 22-year-old Nazarbayev regime through an "Arab Spring." <#stdurl http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/ML21Ag01.html "Asia Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "US health agency asks Nature and Science to redact bird flu data" America's National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity (NSABB) have asked the editors of Nature and Science magazines to redact key details about H5N1 bird flu experiments that modify the virus so that one ferret can easily infect another ferret. It's thought that the same technology could be used to modify the virus so that one human could easily pass it to another human, allowing a biomedical terrorist to create an H5N1 bird flu pandemic that would kill tens of millions of people. Some of the scientists involved (presumably nihilistic Gen-Xers) are balking at the restrictions, saying that their findings should be made freely available to the world. Reportedly, the editors have agreed to redact the crucial information, provided that the full details of the study will be available to legitimate scientists who request it. But let's face it: Pandora's box has already been opened, and can't be closed again. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-16279365 "BBC"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1124 "21-Dec-11 World View -- Arrest warrant for Iraq's VP plunges Iraq's government into crisis"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111220 20-Dec-11 World View -- Suspicions arise over the cause of Kim Jong-il's death =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111220.head 20-Dec-11 World View -- Suspicions arise over the cause of Kim Jong-il's death =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111220.keys Generational Dynamics, North Korea, South Korea, Kim Jong-il, Kim Jong-un, Kim Il-sung, Iraq, Tariq al-Hashemi, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, U.N. General Assembly, U.N. Security Council, Arab League, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Anne Sinclair, Martine Aubry, Eva Joly, Carla Bruni-Sarkozy =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111220.loc ww2010.weblog.log1112 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111220.date 20-Dec-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111220.txt1 Strauss-Kahn's wife is 'Woman of the Year' for standing by her man =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111220.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>.
"At the vanguard of the Korean revolution stands Kim Jong-un, great successor to the revolutionary cause of juche [self reliance] and the outstanding leader of our party, military and people. Kim Jong-un’s leadership will guarantee the completion of the revolutionary cause of juche through the generations after it was started by Kim Il-sung and led to victory by Kim Jong-il."It added that the entire nation "should faithfully follow comrade Kim Jong-un’s leadership and protect and bolster the unified front of the party, military and the public." <#stdurl http://koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2011/12/116_101137.html "Korea Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Death of Kim Jong-il raises questions on power succession" Analysts dithered on Monday over the question of whether the succession from Kim Jong-il to Kim Jong-un will be quiet or chaotic. There are several concerns. First, North Korea is a starving nation, and the change of leadership may trigger social unrest that's just seething below the surface, leading to millions of refugees. Second, there may be a succession battle, with an army coup supplanting Kim Jong-un's leadership, or even a succession battle within Kim's family. Third, Kim Jong-un may feel the need to prove himself by launching a provocative military action against South Korea, like last year's sinking of a South Korean warship or shelling a South Korean island, risking all out war with the South. However, many analysts pointed out that North Korea is actually governed by the powerful National Defense Commission, and so there is continuity of government during the succession. Furthermore, Kim Jong-un has a mentor -- Jang Song-thaek, the late Kim's brother-in-law and vice chairman of the National Defense Commission, guiding the young leader to building his political base. <#stdurl http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2011/12/19/59/0401000000AEN20111219014300315F.HTML "Yonhap"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Suspicions arise over the cause of Kim Jong-il's death" <#inc ww2010.pic g111219b.jpg right "" "Kim Jong-il left, Kim Jong-un right, in October 2010 (Korea Times)"#> North Korea’s Central News Agency (KCNA) reported Monday that Kim died of a heart attack last Saturday on a train while heading to an unidentified destination. However, some analysts say that Kim's actions in dismissing numerous military officers, especially those in their 50s, harbor deep resentment against both Kim and the next leader, Kim Jong-un. "As their vested interests were hurt due to Kim Jong-il, I would not rule out the possibility that some military officers, who believed their clout and influence had been damaged, could have played a role in his death," said one analyst. <#stdurl http://koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2011/12/116_101111.html "Korea Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "North Korea test fires two short-range missiles" North Korea test-fired two short-range missiles off its east coast on Monday. However, South Korean officials believe that the test firings were planned in advance, and were not related to Kim Jong-il's death. <#stdurl http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/12/19/89/0301000000AEN20111219015351315F.HTML "Yonhap"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iraq's government disintegrates as Sunni/Shia tensions grow" The day after the last of the U.S. troops left Iraq, the country's Shia-led government issued an arrest warrant for the Sunni vice president Tariq al-Hashemi, accusing him of running a hit squad that assassinated government and security officials. Al-Hashemi apparently anticipated the move, going to the semiautonomous Iraqi region of Kurdistan in the north, hoping that Kurdish authorities would not turn him in. This comes as two Sunni provinces have left the government, and expressed their desire to form their own autonomous government. As I <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e111219 "reported"#> yesterday, Iraq is replaying the same political turmoil that they experienced in the 1930s, during the country's previous generational awakening era prior to the current one. <#stdurl http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501713_162-57345127/iraq-issues-arrest-warrant-for-sunni-vp/ "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria's Bashar al-Assad agrees to Arab League monitors" The Arab League's latest threat -- to turn the question of Syria's violence over to the U.N. Security Council -- has apparently motivated president Bashar al-Assad to agree on Monday to allow Arab League monitors into the country. On the same day, the 193-member U.N. General Assembly adopted, by a vote of 133 to 11 with 43 abstentions, to adopt a human rights committee resolution that "strongly condemns the continued grave and systematic human rights violations by the Syrian authorities, such as arbitrary executions, excessive use of force and the persecution and killing of protesters and human rights defenders." However, opposition leaders said that al-Assad's Monday announcement offered little new. The plan in question, first proposed last month, would have the Syrian government withdraw its troops from the country’s cities, release political prisoners, hold talks with opposition groups and let in monitors from Arab League. Al-Assad is now accepting the proposal, but opponents say that his acceptance is a delaying tactic, before he launches his next wave of violence. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=250156 "Jerusalem Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Strauss-Kahn's wife is 'Woman of the Year' for standing by her man" <#inc ww2010.pic g111219d.jpg right "" "Anne Sinclair, 'Woman of the Year' (AFP)"#> Dominique Strauss-Kahn's wife Anne Sinclair, who stood by the former IMF chief during his sex scandal, was named Woman of the Year in a poll for a French woman's magazine on Monday. Among 10 female personalities, the new IMF chief Christine Lagarde came in second, and the Socialist party candidate for president, Martine Aubry, came in third. Next came French First Lady Carla Bruni-Sarkozy. Eva Joly, the Green Party presidential candidate who came seventh said, "I find this sad -- it represents concepts of life and male-female relations that are very, very outdated, blah, blah, blah." Meanwhile, Dominique Strauss-Kahn returned to public life on Monday with a speech to an economic forum in Beijing, China, where he said, "The euro is a raft on the verge of sinking." <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jI-bedtwtdBDSLKbLa6YYWDC6huw?docId=CNG.756e4b2283cf8526bfb3c8d4117b0c36.141 "AFP"#> and <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/dominique-strauss-kahn/8965900/Dominique-Strauss-Kahn-tries-to-make-political-comeback-in-China.html "Telegraph"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1123 "20-Dec-11 World View -- Suspicions arise over the cause of Kim Jong-il's death"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111219 19-Dec-11 World View -- Iraq's government destabilizes after Americans' departure =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111219.head 19-Dec-11 World View -- Iraq's government destabilizes after Americans' departure =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111219.keys Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-il, Egypt, Tahrir Square, Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, SCAF, Hosni Mubarak, Kamal al-Ganzuri, Syria, Iran, Hamas, Fatah, Palestinian Authority, Islamic Jihad, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey, Iraq, Saddam Hussein, Supreme Military Council, China, Mandarin, Cantonese, Guangdong province =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111219.loc ww2010.weblog.log1112 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111219.date 19-Dec-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111219.txt1 Egyptians shocked by video of army beating veiled woman protester =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111219.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>.
"Those who are in Tahrir Square are not the youth of the revolution. This is not a revolution, but a counter-revolution."This has angered protesters, and the videos of army violence have infuriated protesters. The complete video of the beaten woman is at the end of this World View report. <#stdurl http://www.news.com.au/world/egypts-shame-shock-video-shows-soldiers-beating-female-protesters-with-metal-poles/story-e6frfkyi-1226225384635 "AP"#> From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Egypt is different from Syria and Iran. The latter two countries are in a generational awakening era, when a civil war is impossible, so any regime change is expected to generate only short-lived violence that should fizzle quickly (as happened in Iraq in 2006-7). But Egypt is in a generational crisis era, so that increasing violence could spiral into a crisis civil war. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Hamas moves away from violence in deal with Palestinian Authority" Hamas has confirmed that it will shift tactics away from violent attacks on Israel as part of a rapprochement with the Palestinian Authority (Fatah). According to a spokesman, "Violence is no longer the primary option but if Israel pushes us, we reserve the right to defend ourselves with force." This may surprise some people, but it's quite natural as the Hamas leadership grows older. But as we've <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e111212 "reported"#> recently, a more violent group, Islamic Jihad, led by a younger generation, is growing quickly in capabilities and military infrastructure, presenting a major challenge to Hamas's authority. Hamas and Fatah will try once again to reconcile and form a unity government, but they failed at that several times already. <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/dec/18/hamas-moves-from-violence-palestinian "Guardian"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Rumors abound that Turkey's Erdogan is seriously ill from cancer" <#inc ww2010.pic g110906c.jpg right "" "Recep Tayyip Erdogan"#> Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was reported to have undergone abdominal surgery on November 26. Turkish officials denied rumors of cancer and insisted that he was in good health, but new reports have emerged that he entered the hospital again on Sunday, suffering from Rectosigmoid cancer, though it's not known how advanced it is. Erdogan has been the leading political figure in the Mideast for a couple of years, and his disappearance would add to the general destabilization of the entire region, which seems to be getting worse every day. <#stdurl http://debka.com/article/21581/ "Debka"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iraq's government destabilizes after Americans' departure" As the last American soldiers leave Iraq, old sectarian rivalries are beginning to reemerge. Saddam Hussein's government was Sunni-led, and its treatment of the majority Shia population was brutal. The American-led war has put Shia officials in charge, and created an uneasy alliance between Shia and Sunni, with American troops providing the glue. Now the glue is gone, and the government is becoming unstable. Two Sunni provinces are withdrawing from the government, saying that they want to declare themselves as autonomous regions like the Kurds in the north. There's also a widespread conviction that with the Americans gone, Iranian influence will spread. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16234723 "BBC"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "American withdrawal from Iraq widens rift between Turkey and Iran" As we recently <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e111216 "reported,"#> Turkey's Supreme Military Council has announced that it has reviewed Turkish Armed Forces preparedness for war, without specifying what threats it's preparing for. However, it's assumed that Turkey is preparing for war in Syria, and possibly its main supporter, Iran. The American withdrawal from Iraq opens a new area of competition between Turkey and Iran, with the possibilities that Turkey will be aligned with the Sunnis in the west, and Iran will be aligned with the Shias in the east. Iraq's Shia-led government is demanding that Turkey stop interfering in Iraq, and has welcomed a closer relationship with Iran, something that's sure to make Iraq's Sunni minority increasingly nervous. <#stdurl http://www.todayszaman.com/news-266002-rivalry-over-syria-iraq-widens-rift-between-turkey-and-iran.html "Zaman (Istanbul)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iraq headed for further political chaos" During the period 2003-2008, when I was writing a lot about the Iraq war, the mainstream media articles, quoting so-called experts in Washington, were almost entirely fatuous ideological nonsense, written by people who knew little more about Iraq then how to spell it. It was a great shock to me to learn how abysmally ignorant the Washington politicians, journalists, analysts and "experts" are about even the simplest facts about the Mideast. Articles in <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e070114b "Congressional Quarterly"#> and other publications showed that politicians and journalists were totally ignorant about Iraq, not knowing even the simple fact that al-Qaeda is a Sunni organization. Nancy Pelosi indicated she was completely unaware that al-Qaeda was even in Iraq. And this isn't a one-sided appraisal; Republicans and Democrats were equally ignorant. Generational Dynamics is the only methodology that produced correct predictions about Iraq, and my web site was the only one in the world that told you what's going on in the world, and what's going to happen. In particular, my 2007 article, <#hreftext ww2010.i.iraq070401 ""Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq,""#> was the best analytical article on what was happening in Iraq than any article on any other web site or publication in the world. In that article, I pointed out that if you want to understand Iraq today, then you have to understand Iraq's history at least as far back as the Great Iraqi Revolution of 1920. In particular, you have to look at Iraq in the 1930s, Iraq's last generational awakening era prior to the current one. I quoted the history of Iraq at that time, but the main point is utter political chaos, and that's what we can expect today. But the history of Iraq also shows that Iraq's Sunni and Shia populations are highly nationalistic, and consider themselves to be Iraqis first, and Sunnis or Shias second. This indicates that they'll unite if threatened by Iran, Turkey, or anyone else. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China announces restrictions on Cantonese broadcasts" China has announced that all television and radio stations must broadcast only in the Mandarin (Putonghua) language. The requirement is particularly targeted at Guangdong province in the South, where the indigenous population speaks Cantonese. When China announced this policy a year ago, it triggered a series of mass demonstrations by furious Cantonese speakers, causing Beijing to back off. The new announcement says that the law will come into effect on March 1. <#stdurl http://topics.scmp.com/news/china-news-watch/article/Cantonese-broadcasts-restricted-in-Guangdong "South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Video of Egyptian woman beaten in Tahrir Square" The following <#stdurl http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vf_0p4a_GwI "video"#> (or a different <#stdurl http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4iboFV-yeTE "video"#> with additional footage) is extremely graphic, and should be viewed only by people with strong stomachs. Helmeted officer charge toward a veiled woman in Tahrir Square, drag her on the ground, beat her with clubs, kick her in the head, stomp on her, and drag her by her hair. One soldier even pulled her veil over her head stomps on her breasts.
[youtube vf_0p4a_GwI nolink]
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1121 "19-Dec-11 World View -- Iraq's government destabilizes after Americans' departure"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111218 18-Dec-11 World View -- Europe's financial crisis brings accusations of xenophobia =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111218.head 18-Dec-11 World View -- Europe's financial crisis brings accusations of xenophobia =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111218.keys Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Armenians, genocide, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Nicolas Sarkozy, Standard & Poors, France, Britain, Christian Noyer, Nick Clegg, David Cameron, Anglo-Saxon liberal tradition, French dirigiste tradition, xenophobia, Arab League, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Security Council, India, Russia, Manmohan Singh, Dmitry Medvedev, Goundhog Day, Kick the Can Theory =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111218.loc ww2010.weblog.log1112 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111218.date 18-Dec-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111218.txt1 Congress kicks the can down the road to Groundhog Day =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111218.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>."A downgrade doesn’t strike me as justified based on economic fundamentals. Or if it is, they should start by downgrading the U.K., which has a bigger deficit, as much debt, more inflation, weaker growth and where bank lending is collapsing."But Nick Clegg, head of the Liberal Democratic party that is David Cameron's governing partner, responded by warning of xenophobia and polarization:
"There are different visions and traditions of what European integration looks like. The great genius of European integration economically is that it has always held two different traditions in balance – the Anglo-Saxon liberal tradition and the French dirigiste tradition. The goal has been to ensure that neither the French or British tradition triumphed over the other. I don't think it is in their interest to see the British liberal tradition marginalised. It will not happen. The danger at the moment is because society is under economic stress, xenophobia, chauvinism and polarization increase. You can see it in British politics. This is the perfect environment if you are [Ukip leader] Nigel Farage or [SNP leader] Alex Salmond. The people who are trying to exploit the politics of grievance and blame, they believe they have got the wind in their sails. I represent a centre-ground liberalism that is saying we have got to stick to being reasoned and open. The liberal open society is always under pressure when there is fear and anxiety in society."<#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-14/ecb-s-noyer-says-rating-companies-have-become-irrational-.html "Bloomberg"#> and <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/dec/16/clegg-vows-return-britain-europe "Guardian"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Arab League gives Syria another Wednesday deadline" For several months, the Arab League has given Syria's president Bashar al-Assad one deadline after another to end the massacre of unarmed protesters, but al-Assad not only ignored all deadlines, but actually escalated the violence each time. Now the Arab League appears ready to give its final ultimatum: If al-Assad doesn't allow inspectors into Syria by Wednesday, then they'll (gasp!) refer the case to the U.N. Security Council. Previous attempts to get the Security Council to condemn violence in Syria have been blocked by Russia and China, on the grounds that they agreed to a tiny action in Libya that the West turned into a major military action. <#stdurl http://gulfnews.com/news/region/syria/syria-has-until-wednesday-to-avoid-un-action-1.952809 "Gulf News"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "India and Russia strengthen strategic and economic ties" Just as the economic and strategic ties between China and Pakistan are growing, they are also growing between Russia and India. India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visited Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in Moscow on Sunday, and said,
"The depth and range of our relationship with Russia is growing. Our strong strategic partnership in nuclear energy, defence and space will, in future, be buttressed by a stronger economic relationship."With Russia formally joining the World Trade Organisation while Manmohan Singh was in Moscow, the two sides have decided that an Indian study group will explore the possibility of a comprehensive economic cooperation agreement (CECA) with a three nation grouping comprising Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia. <#stdurl http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/stronger-economic-ties-with-russia-in-future-prime-minister-manmohan-singh/articleshow/11147637.cms "India Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Congress kicks the can down the road to Groundhog Day" A few months ago I proposed the "Kick the Can Theory," which says that government is so paralyzed that every important decision will be postponed as long as possible, and that the paralysis will end only when a major crisis occurs that puts the survival of the nation in danger. So far, every major decision in Washington or Europe has reaffirmed and supported the Kick the Can Theory. That was never more true as on Saturday, when Congress passed a compromise payroll tax cut bill that will expire in two months. That means that somewhere around Groundhog Day, the whole thing will be repeated again, and we'll have to listen to same nattering of politicians saying the same old things, over and over and over again. <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-17/two-month-deal-caps-year-of-concessions-as-obama-looks-to-2012.html "Bloomberg"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1120 "18-Dec-11 World View -- Europe's financial crisis brings accusations of xenophobia"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111217 17-Dec-11 World View -- China may add the Seychelles to its 'String of Pearls' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111217.head 17-Dec-11 World View -- China may add the Seychelles to its 'String of Pearls' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111217.keys Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Cairo, China, Seychelles, Gwadar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Burma, Fitch, euro zone, France, Belgium, Spain, Slovenia, Italy, Ireland, Cyprus, Germany, Bundesbank, Canada, Czech Republic, East Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bengali, Bangla =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111217.loc ww2010.weblog.log1112 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111217.date 17-Dec-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111217.txt1 Fitch says a comprehensive euro zone deal is 'beyond reach' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111217.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>.
"a 'comprehensive solution' to the euro zone crisis is technically and politically beyond reach. Of particular concern is the absence of a credible financial backstop. In Fitch's opinion this requires more active and explicit commitment from the ECB to mitigate the risk of self-fulfilling liquidity crises for potentially illiquid but solvent Euro Area Member States."It put Belgium, Spain, Slovenia, Italy, Ireland, and Cyprus on negative watch, which could mean a downgrade within three months. On the same day, Moody's Investors Service cut Belgium's credit rating by two notches, while Standard & Poors has already warned 15 of the currency bloc's 17 members they were close to a downgrade. <#stdurl http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCATRE7BF0OX20111217 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Germany expresses doubts about helping the IMF help Europe" Last week's eurozone summit was largely a waste of time, but it did reach one concrete decision: They vowed to loan up to €200 billion ($260 billion) to the International Monetary Fund so that the IMF could step up its aid to European countries in need. Now, though, with Germany's Bundesbank (central bank) showing increasing doubts about the fund and others demonstrating an unwillingness to participate, even that measure may now be in doubt. Germany, the biggest potential contributor is indicating that it won't do so unless members outside of Europe also contibute. Russia has indicated a willingness to contribute, but the U.S., Canada, the U.K and the Czech Republic, among others, have indicated an unwillingness to participate. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,804228,00.html "Spiegel"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pakistan commemorates the war that created Bangladesh" <#inc ww2010.pic india4.jpg right "" "Indian subcontinent"#> Friday was the 40th anniversary of the day when Pakistan became the first state to disintegrate after World War II. What is now called Bangladesh used to be part of Pakistan, and was known as East Pakistan. At that time, a civil war between the East and West Pakistan forces, with the East Pakistanis aided by Indian troops, led to the secession of East Pakistan, and the creation of Bangladesh. The two countries have little in common except the Muslim religion. Bangladesh's people are ethnic Bengali, speaking the Bangla language. Pakistan has several ethnic groups, and the national language is Urdu, though Radio Pakistan broadcasts daily in over 20 languages and dialects. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what's interesting is that the 1971 was was a generational crisis war for Bangladesh, just as the 1947 Partition war was a crisis war for Pakistan. This happens because Pakistan and Bangladesh are on different generational timelines, just as they have different ethnicities and different languages. <#stdurl http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2011\12\16\story_16-12-2011_pg3_6 "Daily Times (Pakistan)"#> and <#stdurl http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2011\12\17\story_17-12-2011_pg3_5 "Part II"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1119 "17-Dec-11 World View -- China may add the Seychelles to its 'String of Pearls'"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111216 16-Dec-11 World View -- Unrest grows in Shanghai, China, as housing prices collapse =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111216.head 16-Dec-11 World View -- Unrest grows in Shanghai, China, as housing prices collapse =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111216.keys Generational Dynamics, Shanghai, China, home prices, Beijing, Changsa, Ordos, Inner Mongolia, IMF International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, Turkey, Supreme Military Council, Ahmet Davutoglu, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Russia, chemical weapons, biological weapons, France, Jacques Chirac, Dominique de Villepin, Iraq, oil for food scam, Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel, price tag attacks, Ramallah, West Bank, Iran, Great Islamic Revolution =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111216.loc ww2010.weblog.log1112 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111216.date 16-Dec-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111216.txt1 Turkey reviews military preparedness for war with Syria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111216.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Unrest grows in Shanghai, China, as housing prices collapse
"There is no economy in the world, whether low-income countries, emerging markets, middle-income countries or super- advanced economies that will be immune to the crisis that we see not only unfolding, but escalating at a point where everybody would actually have to focus on what it can do. [If the international community doesn’t work together,] the risk from an economic point of view is that of retraction, rising protectionism, isolation. This is exactly the description of what happened in the ‘30s and what followed is not something we are looking forward to."She added that the world economic outlook "is quite gloomy." <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-15/imf-s-lagarde-says-escalating-european-crisis-requires-more-cooperation.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey reviews military preparedness for war with Syria" Turkey's Supreme Military Council has announced that it has reviewed Turkish Armed Forces preparedness for war. Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has said in the past that Turkey does not want war with Syria, but may be forced to invade a create a buffer zone on Syrian soil to provide refugee camps for thousands of people fleeing violence from president Bashar al-Assad's regime. However, Debka is reporting that Turkey's announcement was triggered by the al-Assad's deployment of missiles, some tipped with chemical warheads, on their common border. This comes on the heels of <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e111214 "reports"#> that American troops are massing in Jordan on Syria's border. Debka's subscriber-only newsletter adds reports that Russia has been airlifting to Syria supplies of face masks for protection against chemical and biological weapons and quantities of medical supplies. <#stdurl http://www.todayszaman.com/news-265860-top-turkish-military-council-reviews-preparedness-for-war.html "Zaman (Istanbul)"#> and <#stdurl http://www.debka.com/article/21577/ "Debka"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Jacques Chirac found guilty of corruption in 'historic' verdict" <#inc ww2010.pic g111215c.jpg right "" "Jacques Chirac"#> France's former president Jacques Chirac has been given a two-year suspended jail sentence for embezzling public funds and abusing public trust. The historic verdict was announced in the 'Great Hall' in which Marie Antoinette, the wife of King Louis XVI, was sentenced to death during the French Revolution. A court on Thursday found Jacques Chirac, 79, guilty of diverting public funds and abusing public trust after he paid supporters for municipal jobs which didn't exist when he was mayor of Paris. Chirac and his deputy, Dominique de Villepin, are known for opposing the American operation in Iraq, but it later turned out that Chirac and de Villepin opposed the operation because they were making millions of dollars in a corrupt <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/nov/16/iraq.usa "oil-for-food deal"#> that enriched France, but left millions of Iraqi citizens to starve. The oil-for-food corruption was not the subject of Thursday's court finding. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,804003,00.html "Spiegel"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia's Putin confirms that he'll appoint Medvedev to be prime minister" The joke initiated by Russia's prime minister Vladimir Putin in 2008 came full circle on Thursday. After serving two consecutive terms as president, Putin was no longer constitutionally allowed to run for president again in 2008. So Putin arranged for Dmitry Medvedev to win the election for presidency in 2008, so that Medvedev would appoint him as prime minister. Most Russians assumed that the whole arrangement was a scam, something that Putin piously denied. Then, last month, Putin revealed that it was a scam after all, and that he would run for president again, now that he's able to do so again, and this was his intention all along. On Thursday, he announced that once arranges to win the presidential election next year, he'll appoint Medvedev to be prime minister, thus completing the circle. <#stdurl http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/12/15/russia-putin-medvedev-idINDEE7BE0C920111215 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia says it will invest to save the euro" Russia's president Dmitry Medvedev is promising to invest $10 billion or more in the eurozone, to save the euro. "Russia has its quota in the IMF, and we will meet all our obligations and are ready to invest the relevant money. We are also ready to consider other measures of support," said Medvedev. Trade with the EU comprises more than half of Russia’s foreign trade and 41 per cent of Russia’s foreign reserves are also in euros. <#stdurl http://rt.com/business/news/russia-invests-eu-medvedev-927/ "Russia Today"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel's Netanyahu won't let radical settlers 'start a religious war'" Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has promised legal retribution against far-right settlement activists who are assumed to be the perpetrators of a "price tag" attack on a mosque in Ramallah in the West bank. After they broke into the mosque, the vandals lit a fire in the women’s prayer section on the top floor. The vandals also spray-painted red Hebrew words on an interior wall: “Mitpze Yitzhar” and “war.” Graffiti with the words “price tag” were written on the mosque’s exterior wall. Netanyahu said on Thursday evening,
"We won’t let them [Jewish extremists] attack our soldiers, start a religious war, set fire to mosques [and] attack Jews or non-Jews. We will act with a strong hand and make sure they’re prosecuted. The law is the law. Justice is justice."The number of price tag attacks has been increasing recently. The phrase "price tag" is frequently used by far-right Israeli settlers to denote revenge attacks against Palestinians or IDF soldiers in response to moves by the Israeli government to evacuate illegal West Bank outposts, or as retribution for attacks by Palestinians. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=249662 "Jerusalem Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iran's people fear leadership will cause a catastrophic war" Ordinary Iranians are increasingly worried that the policies of Iran's leadership with regard to nuclear facilities are risking an Israeli strike and a catastrophic war. Many Iranians are stocking up on basic goods, changing their money into foreign currencies, or obtaining visas to move abroad. As I've written many times, Iran's hardline leadership is hoping a war or threat of war will unify the country behind the leader, as happened in the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution. But that was a generational crisis era, and today Iran is in a generational awakening era, meaning that there's a "generation gap," and the younger generations are rebelling against the generations of war survivors. <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/leaders-are-defiant-but-many-iranians-fear-war/2011/12/08/gIQAHVdMrO_story.html "Washington Post"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1116 "16-Dec-11 World View -- Unrest grows in Shanghai, China, as housing prices collapse"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111215 15-Dec-11 World View -- Egypt's seculars try to beat Islamists in today's voting =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111215.head 15-Dec-11 World View -- Egypt's seculars try to beat Islamists in today's voting =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111215.keys Generational Dynamics, China, Wukan, Guangdong province, commodities, gold, margin calls, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Poul Thomsen, Greece, Herman Van Rompuy, EU Council, UNESCO, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Freedom and Justice Party, Salafist Nour party, Egyptian Bloc =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111215.loc ww2010.weblog.log1112 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111215.date 15-Dec-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111215.txt1 IMF demands that Greece break the 'taboo' of dismissing civil servants =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111215.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Wukan village in southeast China under siege, running out of food
"The political dynamic is a very interesting one, and that is, the 18th Party Congress is around the corner. We forgot sometimes, we have elections here next year. They have leadership changes. You'll hear politics play out because of those elections. You'll hear politics play out in China because of those leadership changes. They are sweeping, and they are significant. If you stop to ponder that 70 percent of the top 200 leaders are turning over in China, including seven of the nine members of the Standing Committee of the Politburo, I can't remember a time since 1949 when this significant, this comprehensive a change has occurred in - in senior leadership in China. The Fifth Generation is coming to the forefront. I know many members of the Fifth Generation, as I did the Fourth and some in the Third. They have a different view of the world. It's based more on a nationalistic set of impulses. They don't necessarily remember the Great Leap Forward, '60 to '64. They barely remember the Cultural Revolution, '66 to '76. They do remember 30 years of blue sky, eight, nine, 10 percent economic growth. That has informed their view of the world. They think their time has arrived."This is the generational change that I've referenced a number of times. Huntsman provides a nice description of it. This is a generation completely untouched by the genocidal Communist Revolution and its bloody aftermath in the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution. They've had a good life, an easy life, and believe that China should take its place as the leader of the world, replacing the United States, which they see as in decline. And they're willing to go to war for it. <#stdurl http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1112/11/fzgps.01.html "CNN"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Power grid becomes more and more vulnerable to cyber attack" With all the news about Stuxnet and cyber attacks, you would think that people in charge of the American electrical grid would be working to make it safer, and would be trying to find ways to protect it from hacker attack. But you would be wrong. The power grid is actually becoming more and more vulnerable to attack. The reason is that millions of new "smart meters" and associated sensors and communication devices are being connected to grid. These components come from hundreds of manufacturers and software developers, and each new device represents a potential new vulnerability to cyber attack. <#stdurl http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2011/1206/Cyber-security-Power-grid-grows-more-vulnerable-to-attack-report-finds "CS Monitor"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Euro Zone leaders just have to pray for luck now" Friday's 26 nation deal to save the euro will require months to implement, and does nothing in the meantime to alleviate the crisis. Thus, if the euro is to be saved, then a lot of luck is going to be required. The following will be required to happen: (*) Investors will avoid dumping European debt; (*) S&P will hold off with threatened downgrades; (*) Foreign governments will provide cash to the European Central Bank (ECB) to prevent a bond panic. The first test will come soon, as S&P decides whether to go ahead and downgrade the AAA ratings of Germany and France. <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-11/-luck-may-be-key-to-success-for-leaders-blueprint-to-save-euro.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Proposed S. Korean towers resemble exploding World Trade Center" <#inc ww2010.pic g111211b.jpg center "" "Left: World Trade Center on 9/11; right: proposed design of Seoul towers"#> Talk about poor taste! A Dutch architectural firm has unveiled pictures of the luxury residential towers scheduled to be built in Seoul, South Korea. The towers include a so-called “cloud” feature connecting them around the 27th floors, resembling the World Trade Towers in the process of collapsing following the 9/11 attacks. I suppose if you lived in one of those "cloud" apartments, then you'd have a spectacular view, but you might be bothered by 3,000 ghosts. <#stdurl http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/proposed-s-korean-towers-resemble-exploding-world-trade-center_611802.html "Weekly Standard"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1105 "12-Dec-11 World View -- Huntsman: China's Fifth Generation will have 'nationalistic impulses'"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111211 11-Dec-11 World View -- Hamas, embarrassed by Syria's violence, may be forced to move =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111211.head 11-Dec-11 World View -- Hamas, embarrassed by Syria's violence, may be forced to move =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111211.keys Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Hamas, Syria, Muslim Brotherhood, Bashar al-Assad, Iran, Hizbollah, Pakistan, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, TTP, Afghanistan =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111211.loc ww2010.weblog.log1112 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111211.date 11-Dec-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111211.txt1 Taliban claims to be talking peace with Pakistan government =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111211.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Tens of thousands protest in Russia as anti-Putin civil unrest grows
"I said before I came to Brussels that if I couldn't get adequate safeguards for Britain in a new European treaty, then I wouldn't agree to it. What is on offer isn't in Britain's interests, so I didn't agree to it. We're not in the euro and I'm glad we're not in the euro."The main point of difference was that euro officials wanted to impose a financial transactions tax on all countries, but it would fall 80% on London, thus providing a back door way for Britain to contribute to eurozone bailouts, even though Britain is not in the eurozone. Britain's pullout reflects a recurring hostility between France and Britain over EU fiscal matters. This led to a shouting match in 2005 over agricultural subsidies for France, and it's now peaking again over the financial crisis. Recently Sarkozy expressed fury that Cameron was meddling in eurozone affairs, even though Britain is not a euro nation, and on Friday morning they exchanged angry words. Analysts say that even though Britain has opted out of the current deal, Brussels may be able to impose a financial transactions tax on London through other means, such as through trade policy between the eurozone and Britain. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8945101/David-Cameron-and-Nicolas-Sarkozy-clash-before-Euro-deal-blocked.html "Telegraph"#> and <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ba7f2868-2285-11e1-8404-00144feabdc0.html "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Britain's 'veto' may represent historic turning point for EU" It's an irony of history that the Maastricht Treaty that formally launched the European project was signed by 12 leaders of the European community exactly 20 years ago, on December 9-10, 1991. European politicians are harshly criticizing David Cameron for not signing on to Friday's deal, saying that Britain is now completely isolated from the other EU countries. Few doubt that Cameron's decision represents a historic split in the European Union. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,802823,00.html "Spiegel"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey's exports reach a historic new record" While many countries are in trouble with exports, Turkey is an exception. Turkey's exports have reached $133.97 billion in the past 12 months, indicating that the country has now broken a new record with the highest level of exports in the history of the republic. <#stdurl http://www.sundayszaman.com/sunday/newsDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=265205 "Zaman (Istanbul)"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1101 "10-Dec-11 World View -- Europe in historic split, after Britain opts out of eurozone deal"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111209 9-Dec-11 World View -- Sarkozy: Europe risks a new explosion =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111209.head 9-Dec-11 World View -- Sarkozy: Europe risks a new explosion =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111209.keys Generational Dynamics, Nicolas Sarkozy, Mario Draghi, European Central Bank, ECB, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Jon Corzine, Eric Holder, Russia, Vladimir Putin =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111209.loc ww2010.weblog.log1112 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111209.date 9-Dec-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111209.txt1 Oil pipeline in Syria explodes after terrorist attack =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111209.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Nicolas Sarkozy becomes apocalyptic
"Never has Europe been so necessary and never has it been in so much danger... Never has the risk of Europe's explosion been so great. ... Never have so many countries wanted to join Europe. Never has the risk of a disintegration of Europe been so great. Europe is facing an extraordinarily dangerous situation. The diagnosis is that we have a few weeks to decide because time is working against us. If we aren't in agreement on this, I fear that we won't be able to agree on anything. That's the analysis."The most likely scenario is that something will be announced on Friday with great fanfare, and then it will take the markets a few hours or a couple of days to realize that it doesn't change anything. Europe has almost run out of can-kicking road. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16080530 "BBC"#> and <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/8942090/Debt-crisis-live.html "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "ECB President Mario Draghi dashes hopes of 'big bazooka'" What everyone's waiting to hear on Friday is an announcement by European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi that the ECB will "print" money and purchase an unlimited number of bonds from Italy, Spain, and any other countries where it might be necessary. The reasoning is that the eurozone leaders will reach some agreement, involving centralized control of individual nations' budgets, to limit future uncontrolled spending, so that Draghi will be convinced that the ECB bond purchase "big bazooka" solution is safe. However, Draghi on Thursday shut the door to bond purchases, and said that the only possible solution is a "fiscal compact" among the eurozone nations. Still, everyone's hoping that Draghi will change his mind on Friday. Meanwhile, European banks received a new shock on Thursday, when they learned that they need to raise €114.7 billion in new cash, much more than previously expected, because of the Greek financial crisis. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-08/draghi-says-ecb-to-lend-banks-more-to-avert-credit-crunch-as-key-rate-cut.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Oil pipeline in Syria explodes after terrorist attack" <#inc ww2010.pic g111208b.jpg right "" "Black smoke rises from oil pipeline attacked by terrorists (EPA)"#> An explosion has hit a pipeline carrying oil to a refinery in Syria on Thursday. No casualties were reported, and no one claimed responsibility for the terrorist action. The state-run news service said, "An armed terrorist group committed an act of sabotage." <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/dec/08/syrian-oil-pipeline-explosion "Guardian"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Arab Spring coming to Russia on Friday" An unprecedented display of anger against Russia's prime minister Vladimir Putin is building, as 18,000 people have signed up on a Facebook page to attend planned mass demonstrations on Friday, December 10, over election fraud in last Sunday's Duma elections. Wednesday was a third night of protests in Moscow and St. Petersburg, resulting in numerous arrests. However, the persistence of the demonstrations is being seen as remarkable, and a challenge to Putin. <#stdurl http://www.rferl.org/content/russian_protesters_mobilize_online_as_leaders_jailed/24414881.html "RFERL"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Al-Assad, Corzine and Holder all tell the same story" In today's culture of fraud and extortion, all the stories sound the same:
Assad: OK, we don't kill our people, nobody kill. No government in the world kill its people, unless it's led by crazy person. For me, as president, I became president because of the public support. It's impossible for anyone, in this state, to give order to kill people.Assad gave one bizarre explanation after another. This one was pretty amazing:
Walters: Well in the beginning these protests, the women were marching with children carrying olive branches nobody at that point was asking for you to step down. It has escalated. Do you think that your forces cracked down too hard? Assad: They are not my forces, they are military forces belong to the government. Walters: OK, but you are the government. Assad: I don't own them. I am president. I don't own the country, so they are not my forces. Walters: No, but you have to give the order? Assad: No, no, no. We have, in the constitution, in the law, the mission of the institution to protect the people to stand against any chaos or any terrorists, that their job, according to the constitution to their-- to the law of the institution. Walters: The crackdown was without your permission? Assad: Would you mind, what do you mean by crackdown? Walters: The, the reaction to the people, the some of the murders some of the things that happened? Assad: No, there is a difference between having policy to crack down and between having some mistakes committed by some officials, there is a big difference. For example, when you talk about policy it's like what happened in Guantanamo when you have policy of torture for example we don't have such a policy to crack down or to torture people, you have mistakes committed by some people or we heard we have some allegations about mistakes, that is why we have a special committee to investigate what happened and then we can tell according to the evidences we have mistakes or not. But as a policy, no.This may have some interesting internal manifestations, since he's essentially blaming his underlings, including his own brother, for the crackdown, while not taking any responsibility himself. When asked about the United Nations report accusing him of crimes against humanity, he said that the U.N. hadn't bothered to send him the report, so he doesn't know what's in it. When he was asked about the Arab League sanctions against Syria, he said that the sanctions didn't hurt Syria, but they hurt Syria's neighbors. When reminded that Syria has become isolated, "We have good relations with the world, but not vice versa." He said that any attempt to overthrow him would bring disaster:
Assad: Syria is the fault line in the Middle East. You know, the Middle East is generally it's very diverse in ethnicities, in sects, in religions, but Syria the most diverse and this is the fault line where all these diversity meet so it's like the fault line of the Earth of the, of the Earth. When you play with it, you will have earthquake that is going to effect the whole region. So playing don't mean to overthrow me or to deal with me it's not about me it's about the, the, the fabric of the society in this region that is what I meant.At the end of the interview, he was asked if he feels guilty for all the deaths:
Assad: I did my best to protect the people, so I cannot feel guilty, when you do your best. You feel sorry for the lives that has been lost, but you don't feel guilty -- when you don't kill people.He is a "crazy person," as he suggests, though probably no crazier than any of the politicians in Washington or Brussels. <#stdurl http://abcnews.go.com/International/transcript-abcs-barbara-walters-interview-syrian-president-bashar/story?id=15099152 "ABC News"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pressure builds on euro summit meeting on Thursday and Friday" <#inc ww2010.pic g111207b.gif right "" "Greece's 2 year bonds at 140%"#> Possibly no financial summit meeting in years has been watched as closely as the one being held on Thursday and Friday in Brussels. The plan is to agree that all 17 euro zone countries will agree to treaty the commits them to accept sanctions if they ever exceed prescribed debt limits. To back this up, some bailout mechanism will be introduced, such as the ECB "printing" money and buying toxic bonds, or perhaps just guaranteeing toxic bonds from Italy and Spain, to try to force yields (interest rates) down. (Yields on Greece's 2-year bonds reached 142.3% on Wednesday. No, that's not a typo.) The Germans know that, in the end, they're going to be the ones to pay the tab for a failed bailout, which is why they're demanding heavy fiscal controls on wayward nations. An unnamed senior German official said on Wednesday:
"I have to say today, on Wednesday, that I am more pessimistic than last week about reaching an overall deal ... A lot of protagonists still have not understood how serious the situation is. My pessimism stems from the overall picture that I see at this point, in which institutions and member states will have to move on many points to make possible the new treaty rules that we are aiming for."The world financial community is looking to this meeting to save the euro. Whether these leaders can pull something out of the hat is what everyone is waiting to see. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/07/us-eurozone-idUSTRE7B30AO20111207 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Germanophobia spreads through Europe" <#inc ww2010.pic g111207d.jpg right "" "Merkel is Salome, a seductress who is said to have created the distraction that allowed beheading John the Baptist, is here receiving Sarkozy's head (Bild/Guardian)"#> A German newspaper has conveniently provided a collection of cartoons and a list of some of the comments made by commentators in other European countries. Here are some excerpts:
"Mr. Vice President, Mr. Speaker, members of the Senate and the House of Representatives: Yesterday, Dec. 7th, 1941 — a date which will live in infamy — the United States of America was suddenly and deliberately attacked by naval and air forces of the Empire of Japan."Within an hour, Congress passed a declaration of war against Japan. In generational theory, this was a "regeneracy event," an event that ended the political bickering and unified the country behind the President. It only took 24 hours for the nation to go from a peaceful Sunday to World War II. <#stdurl http://framework.latimes.com/2011/12/06/pearl-harbor-photos/ "LA Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China's Hu Jintao tells navy to prepare for military combat" China's president Hu Jintao addressed the powerful Central Military Commission on Tuesday, and said:
"[The navy should] accelerate its transformation and modernization in a sturdy way, and make extended preparations for military combat in order to make greater contributions to safeguard national security. Our work must closely encircle the main theme of national defense and military building."Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao last month warned against interference by "external forces" in regional territorial disputes including those in the South China Sea. News reports indicate that the Dept. of Defense is playing down these remarks, but can you imagine the international uproar if President Bush or President Obama ever made remarks similar to President Hu's? <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gAez8SIMfjSbwOXzFSBLxNzlZrFg?docId=CNG.858b1c9b4e61e65eb7764010c93e843b.2a1 "AFP"#> and <#stdurl http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2011-12/06/c_131291648.htm "Xinhua"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Afghanistan shocked by coordinated suicide attacks targeting Shias" <#inc ww2010.pic g111206c.jpg right "" "Twin blasts in Shia shrines in Kabul and Mazar-i-Sharif"#> 58 people were killed and over 150 injured on Tuesday from coordinated suicide bomber attacks in Shia Muslim shrines in two Afghanistan cities, Kabul and Mazar-i-Sharif. The suicide bombings attacked Shia worshipers during Ashura, one of Shia Muslim's holiest celebrations. The bombings are thought to be related to a key international conference on Afghanistan in Bonn, Germany, which just agreed to extend international support for Afghanistan to 2024, following the scheduled withdrawal of all foreign troops by the end of 2014. Many analysts expressed that this would launch a new series of sectarian Sunni vs Shia attacks. <#stdurl http://nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/International/06-Dec-2011/At-least-48-killed-over-100-injured-in-Kabul-blast "Nation (Pakistan)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Lashkar-e-Jhangvi claims credit for Kabul attack" We've written about Lashkar-e-Jhangvi several times in the past -- a terrorist group that targets Shia and Sufi shrines in Pakistan, and who has been responsible for hundreds of deaths of worshipers. In addition. Lashkar-e-Jhangvi is connected to Jundullah, a terrorist group that has perpetrated major attacks on Shia mosques and Revolutionary Guard stations in southeastern Iran. It's now considered possible that Lashkar-e-Jhangvi is extending operations into Afghanistan. <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/rare-attack-in-kabul-targets-shiite-mosque/2011/12/06/gIQAVnEkYO_story.html?tid=pm_pop "Washington Post"#> News stories are reporting Sunni/Shia violence in Afghanistan as "rare," and even President Hamid Karzai is quoted as calling the new attacks "unprecedented." These are people with short memories. There was a large, extremely bloody, genocidal civil war in Afghanistan in the years 1991-96. That was considered mainly an ethnic war, fought mainly between the Hazaris in the north and the Pashtuns in the south, but the Hazaris are Shia and the Pashtuns are Sunni. That war climaxed in 1996, and Afghanistan entered a generational Recovery era, which is just ending now. What we're seeing are the first signs of a generational Awakening era, as the children who grew up after the end of the civil war are now getting old enough to avenge the atrocities committed on their parents' generation. As usual in an awakening era, there is a "generation gap," and the children are acting against their survivor parents' wishes, and indeed the Taliban leadership on Tuesday put out a statement strongly condemning the attacks. Some analysts fear a new civil war in Afghanistan, but that's impossible because the survivor generation won't permit it. But that won't stop terrorist attacks of the kind experienced on Tuesday. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece's bank run is accelerating" Many Greeks are draining their savings accounts because they are out of work, face rising taxes or are afraid the country will be forced to leave the euro zone. At the start of 2010, savings deposits totalled €237.7 billion. Since then, they fallen by €49 billion, and in the last couple of months the withdrawals have increased dramatically -- €5.4 billion in September and by an estimated €8.5 billion in October. In August, unemployment reached 18.4%. Many Greeks now hoard their savings in their homes because they are worried the banking system may collapse. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,802051,00.html "Spiegel"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Britain's David Cameron threatens to torpedo eurozone crisis resolution" Britain, which is not part of the 17 nation eurozone and still uses its own currency, the pound sterling, has threatened to prevent the "solution" advanced by France and Germany to be implemented, unless the proposals contain safeguards for Britain. In fact, some of the proposals will require changes to the Lisbon treaty, which is the current agreement among all 27 European Union countries. Britain's prime minister David Cameron is the leader of the Conservative Party, which opposes transferring more sovereign powers to Brussels. Many party members want to ditch the EU altogether. According to Cameron, who is increasingly considered by many eurozone leaders to be an annoying jerk, "Eurozone countries do need to come together, do need to do more things together — if they choose to use the European treaty to do that, Britain will be insisting on some safeguards too. As long as we get those, then that treaty can go ahead. If we can't get those, it won't." <#stdurl http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/merkel-downplays-sp-downgrade-15093476 "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Sarkozy tries to halt spread of 'Germanophobia' in France" <#inc ww2010.pic g111206d.jpg right "" "Greek protesters carry a sign comparing Germany's actions in 2011 to Hitler's actions in Dachau in 1933 (Spiegel/DPA)"#> Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy shrugged off anti-German sentiments expressed by some opposition leaders in France when they met in Paris on Monday. Some Socialist Party leaders in France accused President Sarkozy of pandering to Germany’s “Bismarck-like policies,” and obeying its “diktat” in solving the region’s crisis. The charges led Sarkozy’s governing party to attack what it said was “irresponsible Germanophobia.” Leftwing Parisian MP Jean-Marie Le Guen said Sarkozy's meeting with Merkel was like French prime minister Edouard Daladier's role at the 1938 Munich Conference when Daladier, Neville Chamberlain and Italy's fascist leader Benito Mussolini appeased Hitler. Sarkozy said Merkel should know "so as not to be hurt", that these anti-German sentiments "are not held by those in charge" in France. <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-06/merkel-sarkozy-shrug-off-french-germanophobia-on-crisis-effort.html "Bloomberg"#> and <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/dec/05/nicolas-sarkozy-angela-merkel-europe?newsfeed=true "Guardian"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Generational Dynamics podcasts"
[youtube XEUPJqKIzFg nolink]
"And it has two silver linings. Silver lining number one is that there's not much left to go wrong. Housing's already depressed. Auto sector's down. So the -- you really can't get much more downside. So we need to grow. And manufacturing has turned out to be in much better shape than anyone dreamed, and it's been a real engine of this recovery."Not much left to go wrong?? I would laugh at this if it weren't so sickening. Let me now repeat this quote from John Kenneth Galbraith's 1954 book The Great Crash - 1929, where he contrasted the 1929 crash with previous panics:
"A common feature of all these earlier troubles [previous panics] was that having happened they were over. The worst was reasonably recognizable as such. The singular feature of the great crash of 1929 was that the worst continued to worsen. What looked one day like the end proved on the next day to have been only the beginning. Nothing could have been more ingeniously designed to maximize the suffering, and also to insure that as few as possible escaped the common misfortune." (p. 108)In fact, Douglas Holtz-Eakin was directly contradicted by Carl Case, co-author of the Case-Shiller report. On Tuesday, when the latest Case-Shiller report was released, I transcribed the following from an interview with Carl Case on BBTV, when Case explained why he thought housing prices would fall at least another 5-10%, based on experiment he tried with his home price computer model:
"We 'shocked our model' with the shadow inventory. If we put in the entirety of the shadow inventory into our home price model, home prices would fall another 30%. We don't expect that will happen - the shadow inventory would never make its way like a wave into the market, but what it does show is the market clearing price for homes. So we have a long way to go before we see anything like normalcy in the home market."So, when Holtz-Eakin says that there "not much left that can go wrong," he's not only dead wrong, he's catastrophically wrong -- by 30%. And, in fact, if there's a financial panic, which Generational Dynamics predicts is coming, then that shadow inventory would indeed make its way like a wave into the market. I recently <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e111008 "quoted"#> former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan as saying, "All the econometric models failed in 2008 - across the board," and I pointed out that they've been failing for a lot longer than that. Holtz-Eakin is like all the economists you see on tv, is using econometric models that have consistently been proven wrong. Being consistently wrong doesn't seem to bother Holtz-Eakin or anyone else in Washington or on Wall Street -- as long as they get their money. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Four days left to save the euro" Europe is reaching the edge of a cliff this Friday, when French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel will have to announce their new plan to save the euro. Europe has been on the edge of a cliff before. In the last two years, the Europeans have announced one truly ridiculous plan after another -- plans that could not possibly work. But they always fooled enough people to pull Europe back from the cliff's edge for a few weeks or, more recently, for a few days. Now we're waiting for a new plan on Friday. We can only wait with breathless anticipation to see what it will be, and how many and for how long people will be fooled. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Putin's party suffers a major setback in Duma elections" <#inc ww2010.pic g111204c.jpg right "" "Vladimir Putin"#> Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party suffered a sharp drop in support in Sunday's parliamentary elections, just barely past the 50% mark, but falling far short of the two-thirds majority that it had enjoyed for years. The Communist Party (KPRF) came in at second place, with 19% of the votes, with the remaining votes split among the five remaining parties. The outcome for United Russia would force the party, accustomed to passing legislation without regard for support from others, to negotiate and cooperate with competing political parties. <#stdurl http://en.ria.ru/russia/20111205/169332951.html "Ria Novosti"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "New study highlights China's massive war preparations" A study by Georgetown University has developed evidence that China is building thousands of miles of hardened, bombproof tunnels and storing thousands of nuclear missiles. The study was based on analysis of publicly available military journals and videos, so the conclusions can't be confirmed, but it appears that China is building a massive arsenal of nuclear missiles in preparation for war with the United States. As I reported in August in <#hreftext ww2010.i.china110828 ""New Pentagon report outlines China's military buildup,""#> has been massively preparing for war over Taiwan and in the South China Sea, and that they would now, or very soon, win such a war with the U.S. This new data extends the war preparations to bring the war to U.S. soil. With China's rapid military buildup, the next 12 months appear increasingly likely. <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/georgetown-students-shed-light-on-chinas-tunnel-system-for-nuclear-weapons/2011/11/16/gIQA6AmKAO_story.html?hpid=z2 "Washington Post"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1083 "5-Dec-11 World View -- Egypt's two Islamist winners now become arch foes"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111204 4-Dec-11 World View -- Russia elects a new Duma amid harsh ultranationalism =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111204.head 4-Dec-11 World View -- Russia elects a new Duma amid harsh ultranationalism =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111204.keys Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev, Duma, United Russia, Stop Feeding the Caucasus!, Russia for the Russians, Egypt, Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, SCAF, Arab League, Syria, Bashar al-Assad =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111204.loc ww2010.weblog.log1112 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111204.date 4-Dec-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111204.txt1 Egypt's ruling army council 'worries' about Islamist election win =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111204.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Russia elects a new Duma on Sunday
"Angela Merkel demanded tougher control over the tax-and-spend policies of Germany's single-currency partners at the start of a make-or-break five days for the euro. Seeking to halt the single currency's drift towards collapse, the German chancellor finally took decisive action to calm the financial markets when she said it was time to stop talking about a fiscal union and start creating one. Merkel said, however, that negotiations to secure greater centralised control over the budgets of the 17 members of the eurozone could not be rushed and would involve a risky renegotiation of the Lisbon treaty."Decisive action???? She gave a FRIGGIN' SPEECH! Since when is giving a speech "decisive action," especially when it's going to take "years" for anything to get done? Here's a story from <#stdurl http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2011/12/03/britain-faces-demotion-as-france-and-germany-push-for-new-eu-115875-23605938/ "Mirror"#>:
"Britain faced being sidelined yesterday as German Chancellor Angela Merkel set out plans for a new "euroland." She will use a summit next week to demand a "fiscal union" so all 17 eurozone countries are bound by the same budgetary rules. A new treaty, forcing governments in the single currency to give up tax and spending powers, was essential to rescue the eurozone, she said. But the power-grab by France and Germany may create a two-tier European Union and see Britain – not in the single currency – lose its place at the top table."These fears of a Berlin takeover of Europe, 73 years after the Anschluss, are being widely expressed in Europe. Here's a more sober news story from the <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/the-merkel-plan-ill-save-the-euro-with-a-federal-europe-6271544.html "Independent"#>:
"Chancellor Angela Merkel insisted yesterday that the euro could only be saved by changes in the EU treaty to impose legally enforceable budget discipline on countries using the single currency. Her words, in a landmark speech to the Bundestag, implied exactly the kind of federalist solution, over-riding national sovereignty, which was rejected the day before by President Nicolas Sarkozy. Efforts will be made to resolve the apparent gulf between the two leaders when they meet in Paris on Monday to agree draft treaty changes to place before a critical EU summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday."So it looks like Merkel and Sarkozy have only a few days left bridge their differences, so that they can complete the Franco-German takeover of Europe, and thus save the euro. It's just one more in a seemingly endless supply of bizarre days. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Record turnout in Egypt's elections" Egypt's people were ebullient this week as they surged to the to the polls for the first free elections in decades. 62% of eligible voters took part in the first round of parliamentary elections, with turnout as "the highest since the time of pharaohs." Official results have not yet been announced, but leaks indicate that the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) took 40% of the votes. Following closely behind is the conservative Salafi Al-Nour Party, with about 30% of the votes, raising concerns in the West of an Islamist government. <#stdurl http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/28338/Egypt/Politics-/BREAKING-Record-turnout-reaches--in-Egypt-election.aspx "Al-Ahram"#> and <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-02/islamist-parties-may-have-won-70-of-vote-in-egypt-s-election.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pakistan changes rules of engagement versus U.S. forces" Relations between Pakistan and the U.S. continued to deteriorate following the recent attack by Nato forces that inadvertently killed 24 Pakistani soldiers in the tribal regions. Pakistan officials are saying that the attack was intentional, and are denying the U.S. version of the story that the outcome was inadvertent. On Friday, Pakistan's army changed the rules of engagement, so that Pakistan's commanders in the wild Afghan border region can return fire if under attack without waiting for permission. This policy change could have the unintended consequence of having U.S. and Pakistan forces firing at each other. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/after-nato-strike-pakistan-adjusts-rules-of-engagement/ "Reuters"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1080 "3-Dec-11 World View -- Europe recoils as Germany takes charge"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111202 2-Dec-11 World View -- Can the euro be saved? =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111202.head 2-Dec-11 World View -- Can the euro be saved? =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111202.keys Generational Dynamics, European Central Bank, ECB, Mario Draghi, Olli Rehn, Nicolas Sarkozy, Angela Merkel, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, China, manufacturing, Nasa, Voyager, Russia, cruise missiles, Syria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111202.loc ww2010.weblog.log1112 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111202.date 2-Dec-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111202.txt1 Russia delivers anti-ship missiles to Syria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111202.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Last-ditch plan to save the euro begins to emerge
"The ECB's monetary policy is constantly guided by the goal of maintaining price stability in the euro area over the medium term - and this applies to price stability in both directions."The key phrase here is "in both directions," referring to both inflation and deflation. Based on this and numerous economists' remarks about the danger of deflation in the eurozone, it's now thought that Draghi is about to reverse himself and agree to a substantially looser monetary policy for the ECB than he's previous said he'd allow. Thus, the emerging plan to save the euro is roughly as follows:
[youtube P4boyXQuUIw nolink]
<#stdurl http://mars.jpl.nasa.gov/news/whatsnew/index.cfm?FuseAction=ShowNews&NewsID=1189 "Nasa Jet Propulsion Laboratory"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1063 "27-Nov-11 World View -- Furious Pakistan shuts Nato down after deadly border strike"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111126 26-Nov-11 World View -- Despite chaos, Egypt's parliamentary election will proceed on Monday =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111126.head 26-Nov-11 World View -- Despite chaos, Egypt's parliamentary election will proceed on Monday =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111126.keys Generational Dynamics, Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkey, Syria, Arab League, Bülent Arinç, Vietnam, Spratly Islands, Paracel Islands, South China Sea, Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan, China, Iceland, Egypt, Mohamed ElBaradei, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Yemen, Col. Yehia Saleh, Gen. Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, Italy, yield inversion, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Eurogroup, haircut =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111126.loc ww2010.weblog.log1111 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111126.date 26-Nov-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111126.txt1 Greece to demand investors increase bond 'haircut' to 75% =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111126.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Once again, Turkey threatens Syria, but then says it won't interveneA quick overview of economics in the Euro Zone Some years ago a small rural town in Spain twinned with a similar town in Greece. The Mayor of the Greek town visited the Spanish town. When he saw the palatial mansion belonging to the Spanish mayor he wondered how he could afford such a house. The Spaniard said; "You see that bridge over there? The EU gave us a grant to build a two-lane bridge, but by building a single lane bridge with traffic lights at either end this house could be built." The following year the Spaniard visited the Greek town. He was simply amazed at the Greek Mayor's house, gold taps, marble floors, it was marvelous. When he asked how this could be afforded the Greek said; "You see that bridge over there?" The Spaniard replied: "No."(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1058 "25-Nov-11 World View -- Massive confrontation in Egypt expected on Friday"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111124 24-Nov-11 World View -- Thanksgiving - a time to prepare as the world darkens =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111124.head 24-Nov-11 World View -- Thanksgiving - a time to prepare as the world darkens =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111124.keys Generational Dynamics, Thanksgiving, European Commission, Eurobond, Germany, CommerzBank, Angela Merkel, José Manuel Barroso, Antonis Samaras, Greece, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Kemal Ataturk, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Yemen, King Abdullah II, Saudi Arabia, Ecclesiastes =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111124.loc ww2010.weblog.log1111 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111124.date 24-Nov-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111124.txt1 Germany's bond auction called a 'complete disaster' as bond panic spreads =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111124.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Happy Thanksgiving
"I consider it extremely worrying and inappropriate that the European Commission is directing the focus to eurobonds today. ... [It is false to assume that the] collectivization of debt would allow us to overcome the currency union's structural flaws."The opposition, including the Greens and the Left party, accused Merkel's government of hypocrisy, since her government plans to take on €4 billion euros more debt next year than in the current year. "We ought to save up today, so that we have jobs in this country tomorrow. You are calling for strict austerity in Europe. How credible do you really think this policy is when you're increasing the debt in Germany?" <#stdurl http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,15552009,00.html "Deutsche-Welle"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "European bank run is starting" Spain on Monday paid a whopping 5.22% for three month bonds, and 5.33% for six-month bonds, as Spanish banks are now too weak to support their own government's debt issuance. The reason is a withdrawal of deposits -- a quiet bank run -- that is now in full swing in the banking systems of several southern European countries. The ongoing crisis is putting European banks under enormous pressure. Even German banks are in difficulty. Particularly hard hit is Commerzbank, which may have to ask for government money because of a significantly higher need for recapitalization than thought so far. Commerzbank alone will have an additional need of €5bn, which market analysts think the bank will be unable to raise on the markets. <#stdurl http://www.eurointelligence.com/ "Euro Intelligence"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Opposition leader Samaras in Greece continues political theatre" <#inc ww2010.pic g111123e.jpg right "" "Antonis Samaras"#> Greece has not yet received a commitment for the next €8 billion bailout payment partially because of some political theatre being played by Antonis Samaras, leader of the opposition New Democracy party. He has refused all along to agree to the austerity measures that Greece committed to when the EU agreed to provide the bailout payments. Led by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the euro leaders are firmly refusing to pay the bailout money unless all political parties are firmly committed to the austerity measures, and they're demanding that Samaras sign a letter expressing his commitment. On Wednesday, Samaras finally wrote a letter making a partial commitment, saying that "certain policies will have to be modified." Samaras is repeating a previous statement that Merkel has already rejected. <#stdurl http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_4158_23/11/2011_416203 "Kathimerini (Athens)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey's Erdogan offers apologies for killing 14,000 Kurds in 1930s" Turkey has been fighting an on-and-off conflict with a separatist terrorist group, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), since the 1980s, and the policies of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan have been under attack by opposition parties for not being able to settle the PKK conflict. In a parliamentary debate on Wednesday, Erdogan responded to opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu by apologizing for a 1930s attack that killed 14,000 members of the rebelling Kurdish minority:
"Am I going to apologize or are you? If there is need for an apology on behalf of the state, if there is such a practice in the books, I would apologize and I am apologizing."The apology was actually a political barb aimed at Kilicdaroglu. At the time of the rebellion, the leader was the revered Kemal Ataturk, in the same party as Kilicdaroglu today. Turkey is also under pressure to acknowledge other dark pages in its history, including the mass killings of Armenians in 1915, a special wealth tax imposed on Jews in the 1940s and attacks on its Greek minority in 1955. <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/turkish-pm-offers-first-apology-for-killings-of-nearly-14000-kurds-in-the-1930s/2011/11/23/gIQAfMjznN_story.html "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Yemen's President Saleh finally agrees to step down after 33 years" <#inc ww2010.pic g111123c.jpg right "" "Saleh meets with Saudi King Abdullah in Riyadh (AP)"#> After ten months of huge "Arab Spring" street protests, in which his security forces killed hundreds of unarmed street protesters, Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh has agreed to step down within 30 days, after being leader for 33 years. The deal was backed by the United States, and brokered by the Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). When he finally signed the agreement to step down, he did so in the Saudi capital of Riyadh after most of his allies had abandoned him and joined the opposition. Several months ago, Saleh's palace mosque was bombed and he was treated in Saudi Arabia for severe burns. It's not clear when or if Saleh will return again to Yemen, as he plans to travel to New York for unnamed medical treatment. The agreement gives him immunity from prosecution. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jGBVFO-wHxfnZv8sFTz7-taAJG6A?docId=2deb926218564baa8b21e218586d7bcd "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Power struggle is likely in Yemen" The deal opens the way to what will likely be a messy power struggle. Among those possibly vying for power are Saleh's son and nephew, who command the country's best-equipped military units; powerful tribal leaders; and the commander of a renegade battalion. According to one analysis, "What should be one of Yemen's main historical events is tainted by fear of an armed conflict in between General Mohsen's dissident troops, Al-Ahmar tribesmen and the remnants of the regime as many former power-players feel the GCC agreement is not serving their immediate interests. Already clashes in al-Hasaba and near the Square were reported in the early hours of the afternoon and fighter jets were seen hovering above Arhab, north of Sana'a." <#stdurl http://yemenpost.net/Detail123456789.aspx?ID=3&SubID=4380&MainCat=3 "Yemen Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "With much wisdom comes much sorrow" My study of Generational Dynamics over almost ten years has taught me a great deal, and has brought me a great deal of grief and sorrow. On this Thanksgiving Day, I'd like to repeat a quote from the Old Testament, which is considered a holy book by Jews, Christians and Muslims alike. Here's Ecclesiastes 1:9-18:
"What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun. Is there anything of which one can say, "Look! This is something new"? It was here already, long ago; it was here before our time. There is no remembrance of men of old, and even those who are yet to come will not be remembered by those who follow. I, the Teacher, was king over Israel in Jerusalem. I devoted myself to study and to explore by wisdom all that is done under heaven. What a heavy burden God has laid on men! I have seen all the things that are done under the sun; all of them are meaningless, a chasing after the wind. What is twisted cannot be straightened; what is lacking cannot be counted. I thought to myself, "Look, I have grown and increased in wisdom more than anyone who has ruled over Jerusalem before me; I have experienced much of wisdom and knowledge." Then I applied myself to the understanding of wisdom, and also of madness and folly, but I learned that this, too, is a chasing after the wind. For with much wisdom comes much sorrow; the more knowledge, the more grief."Something to think about on Thanksgiving. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1057 "24-Nov-11 News -- Thanksgiving - a time to prepare as the world darkens"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111123 23-Nov-11 World View -- Massive protests continue in Egypt =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111123.head 23-Nov-11 World View -- Massive protests continue in Egypt =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111123.keys Generational Dynamics, Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, Egypt, Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, SCAF, Cairo, Alexandria, eurobond, ECB, Federal Reserve, Angela Merkel, Mario Draghi, Ben Bernanke, Katie Martin =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111123.loc ww2010.weblog.log1111 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111123.date 23-Nov-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111123.txt1 Euro collapse now seems inevitable, as Franco-German rift grows =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111123.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Egypt's military leader responds to mass protests
"In the great 25 January revolution, the people rose up to demand freedom, democracy and social freedom. The armed forces, which are an indispensable part of the people, have taken a national decision that they should be appreciated for siding with the people, embodying unity between the army and the people and being a role model for world revolutions to follow. The SCAF [Supreme Council of the Armed Forces] has borne the responsibility of running the country during this transitional stage which followed the former regime. A series of reform measures have been started on a path towards democracy. We have pledged repeatedly that the armed forces will not be an alternative to the legitimacy sought by the people. We did not have the ambition to ascend to the throne of power and we did not seek this, but we realised beforehand that politics entails differences in viewpoints... We have been and we are still implementing our first decision since the 25 January revolution as we did not fire one bullet at the chest of any Egyptian citizen. The ancient Egyptian military has an established doctrine that it is an inherent part of the Egyptian people whose task is to protect the nation. We cannot allow standing against the people. ... Running the country during the transitional period has not been as easy as some people might think... It's easy to talk, but less easy to act. The Egyptian economy is noticeably declining. Whenever the situation moves towards stability, something happens that drags us backwards. But we in the armed forces - the school of patriotism - are used to confronting hardships and we are trained how to be patient until we reach our goal by thorough planning and determination to succeed. Some people tried to drag us to confrontations and we bore hardships, offences and defamation. We did not respond to such attempts and we have been and we still are committed to self-restraint to the maximum degree. ... The SCAF does not seek power and places the higher interest above any other consideration, and is ready to immediately hand over authority and return to its original task to protect the homeland, through a public referendum, if that is what the people want and if that is what is needed."Tantawi promised to turn the government over to civilians by July of next year, but the size of the crowds of protesters makes it unlikely that anyone will believe him. In fact, the brutal tactics that the security forces have used against the protesters, resulting in dozens of deaths, have almost completely discredited the army leaders. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15847315 "BBC"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Massive protests continue in Egypt" There were large protests in Egypt again on Tuesday evening, this time numbering over 100,000 in Cairo and Alexandria. The young protesters had high hopes in February, when Hosni Mubarak was ousted, and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) took over governing. At that time, they had a fantasy that overthrowing the government would actually improve their lives. Now that it hasn't they're ready to overthrow the government again. They're demanding that the army leaders "return to their barracks," and turn the government over to civilians. But beyond ousting SCAF, the protesters have no idea what they want to accomplish. <#stdurl http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/11/201111222246740429.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Euro collapse now seems inevitable, as Franco-German rift grows" There are two major ideas to "save" the euro. One is the creation of a "eurobond" which is backed by all the countries in Europe, so that individual countries won't be affected by bond panics. Germany, with memories of the 1920s hyperinflation, sees this as a new path to hyperinflation, and is against it. The second is that the European Central Bank (ECB) "print money" and use it to buy up all the bonds issued by troubled countries, a form of quantitative easing. The ECB is opposed to that for much the same reason - fear of hyperinflation. And anyway, either of these plans would only provide a few months' relief, just as all the previous plans have done. However, it's possible for some idea to change from "politically impossible" to "politically unavoidable" in a matter of days. so we shouldn't yet count out one of these plans. The "Kick the Can Theory" says that something has to be tried, and that something may well be one or both of these. <#stdurl http://www.expatica.com/de/news/german-news/franco-german-rift-widens-over-ecb-role-in-debt-crisis_190374.html "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Another savior for Europe: The Federal Reserve" If German Chancellor Angela Merkel is opposed to the eurobond, and ECB chairman Mario Draghi is opposed to quantitative easing, then perhaps Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke can help out. The U.S. Federal Reserve has been pumping billions of dollars into the European banking system in recent weeks in an attempt to help stabilize the continent’s financial crisis. And while the effort remains small, it is likely to grow in coming days as Europe’s banks struggle to find lenders willing to help them service their dollar denominated debts. <#stdurl http://swampland.time.com/2011/11/22/can-the-feds-billions-help-save-europes-banks/?xid=gonewsedit "Time"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Wild-eyed hyperbole addicts" According to Katie Martin in the Wall Street Journal:
"A few months ago, predicting the breakup of the euro was the preserve of wild-eyed hyperbole addicts, braying europhobes and professional cynics."Hmmmmm, let's see. No one's paying me, so I'm not a professional cynic. I don't know if I bray, but I'm not a europhobe. So that must make me a wild-eyed hyperbole addict. I've been making wild-eyed hyperbole addictive predictions of this type for almost ten years, based on Generational Dynamics theory, and they've all turned out to be right or are trending in that direction. Meanwhile, I recently <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e111008 "quoted"#> former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan as saying, "All the econometric models failed in 2008 - across the board," and I pointed out that they've been failing for a lot longer than that. So maybe there's a market for wild-eyed hyperbole addicts after all. At least the number of people calling me a sociopath has decreased in the last couple of years. <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204531404577053891893340870.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1052 "23-Nov-11 World View -- Massive protests continue in Egypt"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111122 22-Nov-11 World View -- Egypt under threat from 'Second Revolution' mass protest =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111122.head 22-Nov-11 World View -- Egypt under threat from 'Second Revolution' mass protest =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111122.keys Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Cairo, Tahrir Square, Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, SCAF, Muslim Brotherhood, Freedom and Justice Party, Revolutionary Youth Coalition, million man protest, Credit Suisse, euro, MF Global, Jon Corzine, Jordan, King Abdullah II, Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority, Israel, West Bank, East Jerusalem, Lebanon, Iran, CIA, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Abdullah Gül, Recep Tayyip Erdogan =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111122.loc ww2010.weblog.log1111 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111122.date 22-Nov-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111122.txt1 The 'last days of the euro' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111122.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Egypt's 'Second Revolution' mass protest threatens next week's election
"It is with regret and unflinching moral certainty that I announce that Barnhardt Capital Management has ceased operations. ... The reason for my decision to pull the plug was excruciatingly simple: I could no longer tell my clients that their monies and positions were safe in the futures and options markets – because they are not. And this goes not just for my clients, but for every futures and options account in the United States. The entire system has been utterly destroyed by the MF Global collapse. Given this sad reality, I could not in good conscience take one more step as a commodity broker, soliciting trades that I knew were unsafe or holding funds that I knew to be in jeopardy. The futures markets are very highly-leveraged and thus require an exceptionally firm base upon which to function. That base was the sacrosanct segregation of customer funds from clearing firm capital, with additional emergency financial backing provided by the exchanges themselves. Up until a few weeks ago, that base existed, and had worked flawlessly. Firms came and went, with some imploding in spectacular fashion. Whenever a firm failure happened, the customer funds were intact and the exchanges would step in to backstop everything and keep customers 100% liquid – even as their clearing firm collapsed and was quickly replaced by another firm within the system. Everything changed just a few short weeks ago. A firm, led by [Jon Corzine], stole all of the non-margined cash held by customers of his firm. Let’s not sugar-coat this or make this crime seem “complex” and “abstract” by drowning ourselves in six-dollar words and uber-technical jargon. Jon Corzine STOLE the customer cash at MF Global. ... I have learned over the last week that MF Global is almost certainly the mere tip of the iceberg. There is massive industry-wide exposure to European sovereign junk debt. While other firms may not be as heavily leveraged as Corzine had MFG leveraged, and it is now thought that MFG’s leverage may have been in excess of 100:1, they are still suicidally leveraged and will likely stand massive, unmeetable collateral calls in the coming days and weeks as Europe inevitably collapses. I now suspect that the reason the Chicago Mercantile Exchange did not immediately step in to backstop the MFG implosion was because they knew and know that if they backstopped MFG, they would then be expected to backstop all of the other firms in the system when the failures began to cascade – and there simply isn’t that much money in the entire system. In short, the problem is a SYSTEMIC problem, not merely isolated to one firm."Barnhardt's remarks apply to the futures markets, but the stock market is becoming equally dangerous, because of the same culture of fraud and extortion. Ordinary people should focus on preserving assets, keeping money in their homes or in FDIC insured bank accounts. I omitted from my excerpts of Barnhardt's statement her remarks about "the abject lawlessness and contempt for humanity" of the Obama administration -- not because her remarks aren't true, but because they apply to pretty much every politician and banker these days, in Washington, New York, Brussels, and elsewhere. <#stdurl http://www.zerohedge.com/news/entire-system-has-been-utterly-destroyed-mf-global-collapse-presenting-first-mf-global-casualty "Zero Hedge"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "News site 'Politico' approves fraud by lawmakers" Even by non-existent Washington media standards, I was startled by the <#stdurl http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/68271.html "Politico"#> news site story that condones insider trading by Congress, saying that the accusations are a right-wing conspiracy. I've written many times how much the culture has changed since the 1990s, when the Silent Generation (survivors of WW II) disappeared, and Generation-Xers reached middle management positions in the mid-2000s decade. It's not that all Gen-Xers are crooks; the vast majority are honest. But they've created the culture of fraud and extortion that we've been experiencing by refusing to criticize almost any Gen-Xer for any crime, no matter how egregious. This has been apparent in books on the financial crisis by Mike Taibbi and others that document massive fraud by Gen-Xers in financial institutions, but never actually blame any of them, somehow painting them as victims, despite the crimes they've committed. The difference between the Silents and the Gen-Xers is that most Silents had morals and ethics, and many Gen-Xers apparently do not. During the 1980s savings and loan crisis, thousands of people were criminally referred by regulators, while during this crisis, which is many times bigger, there have been almost none. That's the difference between the Silents and the Gen-Xers. There's been only one criminal conviction: Raj Rajaratnam has been convicted of insider trading and sentenced to 11 years in jail. (<#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-08/rajaratnam-must-pay-92-8-million-in-sec-insider-trading-suit-judge-rules.html "Bloomberg"#>) This brings me back to the Politico article that I referenced above. Massive insider trading by Congressmen and Senators of both parties was exposed earlier this week on CBS's show 60 Minutes, when BigPeace editor Peter Schweizer revealed his research that shows how they used inside information on secret lawmaking negotiations to line their pockets with huge profits in the stock markets. Even though they should be given jail sentences like Raj Rajaratnam's, they're free to do what they want because Congress has exempted itself from the insider trading laws. They can commit all the crimes they want without fear of criminal prosecution. They can buy stocks on Monday and then pass a law on Tuesday that causes the stock price to triple. It's all perfectly legal. But to the Gen-Xers at Politico, Schweizer's work is a vast right-wing conspiracy. The politicians who take our money and screw us are just innocent victims of Schweizer and his right-wing buddies, according to Politico. Politico's article is one of the sleaziest I've seen, and that's saying a lot because there's a hell of a lot of sleaze in the mainstream media. <#stdurl http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/68271.html "Politico"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Protesters attack U.S. Embassy in Athens, Greece" <#inc ww2010.pic g111117c.jpg right "" "Protests in Athens on Thursday (Reuters)"#> Some 30,000 people took to the streets in Athens on Thursday, in commemoration of the 38th anniversary of the ultra-right junta of the "Black Colonels." Most demonstrations protested Greece's austerity program, demanded by the European Union and International Monetary Fund as conditions to receive the next €8 billion bailout payment. Several hundred protestors attempted to storm the U.S. Embassy but were stopped by police, after which tensions grew between the two opposing sides and involved Molotov cocktails from the protestors and tear gas from the police. The protesters were mostly communists who blame the United States for supporting the "Black Colonels" in their suppressing a university students' uprising on November 17, 1973. The communists demand that Greece secede from the eurozone and that communism be reinstated in the country. <#stdurl http://en.ria.ru/world/20111117/168797405.html "Ria Novosti"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "IMF has not yet approved next €8 billion bailout payment to Greece" Greece's interim Prime Minister Lucas Papademos has won a vote of confidence from the parliament, and is now trying to get approval for the austerity budget required by the EU and the IMF to receive further bailout money. The IMF has stated that another condition is that the austerity measures must have strong political support from all parties. However, the next €8 billion bailout payment has been put into question because Antonis Samaras, Greece’s main opposition leader, has balked at signing a separate letter pledging commitment to austerity measures requested by EU officials, saying his support for the transitional government is enough. <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-17/papademos-readies-greek-budget-debt-swap-after-vote-win.html "Bloomberg"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1044 "18-Nov-11 World View -- MF Global bankruptcy begins to claim victims"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111117 17-Nov-11 World View -- As China prepares for war, U.S. increases military presence in Pacific =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111117.head 17-Nov-11 World View -- As China prepares for war, U.S. increases military presence in Pacific =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111117.keys Generational Dynamics, Arab League, Rabat, Morocco, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Qatar, Hamad bin Jassim, Jordan, Amman, Free Syrian Army, China, Greece, Piraeus container port, Fitch ratings service, Iran, Israel, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, IRGC, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Peskov, Mahmoud Abbas, Khaled Meshal, Cairo, Egypt =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111117.loc ww2010.weblog.log1111 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111117.date 17-Nov-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111117.txt1 Russia's rapprochement with Iran openly violates US/UN sanctions =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111117.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Arab League confirms suspension of Syria, threatens economic sanctions
"Bashar, you who have thousands of people in jail, must find those who attacked the Turkish flag and punish them. I want to make this clear to the Assad regime: Throughout history, those who have tried to touch the Turkish flag were given their response. They will receive a response in the future as well. Once again, we strongly condemn these attacks. We want the Syrian regime not only to apologize, but also to find the culprits. ... Those who fire on their own people will go down in history as leaders who feed on blood. You are on the same path. ... Nobody now expects the (Syrian) people's demands to be met. We all want the Syrian administration, which is now on a knife-edge, to turn back from the edge of the cliff."<#stdurl http://www.todayszaman.com/news-262734-erdogan-vows-response-to-syria-after-attack-on-turkish-flag.html "Zaman (Istanbul)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Over 70 killed in Syria's bloodiest day" More than 70 people died in one of the bloodiest days of Syria's eight month uprising, activists said on Tuesday, as president Bashar al-Assad's loyalists reacted angrily to the growing harsh criticism from other Arab and Turkish leaders. Around 100 of his supporters stormed the Jordanian embassy in Damascus overnight, after Jordan's King Abdullah II became the first Arab leader to publicly call for Assad to quit. The Assad regime has announced that it will not send a representative to the Arab League meeting on Wednesday, the date of the deadline that was set for Assad to end the violence against protesters. This makes it certain that the suspension will go ahead. <#stdurl http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/Over-70-killed-in-Syrias-bloodiest-day/articleshow/10749404.cms "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Qatar accused of arming opposition, as Syria violence escalates" The escalating violence in Syria comes amid reports that Qatar is supplying money and arms to the regime's opposition, a claim that the Qataris deny. However, Qatar has taken a leading role in getting the Arab League to suspend Syria, a symbolic act that's taken on huge significance. <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/at-least-70-die-in-uprising-as-violence-escalates-6262678.html "Independent"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Defectors in the Free Syrian Army attack regime intelligence complex" Syrian army defectors attacked an intelligence complex on the edge of Damascus early on Wednesday, in the first reported assault on a major security facility in the eight-month uprising. Members of the Free Syrian Army fired shoulder-mounted rockets and machine guns at a large Air Force Intelligence complex situated on the northern edge of Damascus. A gunfight ensued and helicopters circled the area. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/syrian-army-defectors-hit-intel-complex--activists/ "Reuters"#> The international situation with respect to Syria is becoming more dangerous every day. When comparing Libya with Syria, there's an interesting irony. In Libya, the West established a no-fly zone and supported the rebels, with the consent and approval of the Arab League, with the result that the Libyan action was kept under control. But it's pretty clear that the West will not be establishing a no-fly zone over Syria, and will participate little or not at all in a Syrian military action launched by countries like Turkey and Qatar, if one occurs. Without the "calming" influence of the West, it's quite possible that such a military action, if it occurs, will spiral into a regional war. Indeed, Bashar al-Assad has already promised that he will make sure that it happens. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Germany's economy dominates Europe, as bond rout expands" Bond prices in countries across Europe plummeted on Tuesday, pushing bond yields (interest rates) to crisis levels. It's no longer a crisis confined to Greece and Italy; it's now Europe itself that's beginning to experience full scale panic -- almost everywhere except in Germany. The problem is illustrated by the following charts: <#inc ww2010.pic g111115c.gif center "" "Nov 15 bond yields for Germany (1.8%), France (3.7%), Spain (6.1%) and Belgium (4.9%)"#> Germany is remaining a tower of strength, but bond prices in France, Spain and Belgium are crashing, pushing yields up to crisis levels, indicating a full-scale panic. Italy's bond yields are above 7% again. Even countries like Norway and Finland are experiencing increases in bond yields, though they're still relatively low compared to the others. The crash in France's bonds is particularly dangerous, as France is considered the strongest economy in Europe, along with Germany. France has been desperate to preserve its AAA rating, but that may now be in jeopardy. <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-15/italian-yields-reach-7-french-debt-slides-as-bond-rout-deepens.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "German official clashes with UK, saying, 'Now Europe is speaking German'" Volker Kauder, a senior member of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) party said that Germany's fiscal policies had become a model for the rest of Europe. "Suddenly Europe is speaking German," he said. Kauder added that the UK, as a member of the EU "also carries a responsibility for the success of Europe. Just looking for their own advantage and not being prepared to contribute -- that cannot be the message we accept from the British," he said, referring to Britain's opposition to the financial transaction tax that Germany has been lobbying for in order to raise revenue for future bank bailouts. Britain derives 30% of its economic output from the City of London financial center, and would lose some of that benefit with a financial transaction tax. Germany and Britain are headed for a major collision on this issue, as Merkel has been quoted as saying that she won't let the U.K. "get away" with its refusal to back a financial transaction tax, and British Prime Minister David Cameron dismissed the "utopian" idea, pointing out that 80% of the money collected on the tax would come from Britain. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,798009,00.html "Spiegel"#> and <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-15/merkel-cameron-clash-on-taxes-eu-exposes-widening-breach.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Deadlocked Congressional 'Super Committee' agree to freeze time" As the deadlocked Congressional "Super Committee" tries to follow Europe's example, the desperate members may have found a way to kick the can down the road. Reports indicate that the members have agreed to freeze time on November 22, so that the deadline date of November 23 never happens. <#stdurl http://www.huffingtonpost.com/spencer-green/super-committee-members-a_1_b_1088162.html "Huffington Post (Satire)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Islamist terrorist threat grows in Kazakhstan" <#inc ww2010.pic g111113c.jpg right "" "Central Asia, highlighting Islamist groups in North Caucasus, Uzbekistan, Xinjiang"#> Kazakhstan was once depicted as an island of stability invulnerable to the encroachments of Islamist extremists. However, a recent series of such attacks have forced Kazakh officials to at least partially abandon their blissful state of denial. In May of this year, the first warning came from the Taliban who accused Kazakhstan of supporting NATO forces in Afghanistan. It appears that Islamist extremists are not only targeting the power structures, trying to frustrate government institutions, but also they are attempting to disrupt economic ties between Kazakhstan and western companies, by attacking the oil-producing infrastructure. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38672&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=0b18187823da0d8fdaf10366050572c8 "Jamestown"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1040 "16-Nov-11 World View -- Germany's economy dominates Europe, as bond rout expands"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111115 15-Nov-11 World View -- Mideast turmoil increases after Arab League suspends Syria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111115.head 15-Nov-11 World View -- Mideast turmoil increases after Arab League suspends Syria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111115.keys Generational Dynamics, Iran, Israel, Mossad, Hassan Tehrani Moqaddam, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Arab League, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Jordan, King Abdullah, Turkey, Bülent Arinç, Qatar, Spain, euro, China, South China Sea, Philippines, Spratly Islands =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111115.loc ww2010.weblog.log1111 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111115.date 15-Nov-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111115.txt1 Spain appears next in line to be attacked in bond market =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111115.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Iran blames Israel's Mossad for massive explosion on Saturday
"The EU faces a quasi-existential crisis. The special role played by the Commission in EU integration is based on the market, and this crisis has brought the market economy itself into crisis. It has lost respectability. This threatens to tip the Community into disintegration. We have seen an extremely bad example from the world champions, the US, and the UK, which generated this crisis by years of mistakes and lack of rule enforcement. The speed with which they ditched free-market principles in a matter of weeks was remarkable. The UK spoke of 'British workers for British jobs'. The policy reflexes have become national again.<#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6183857/EU-faces-existential-danger-from-economic-crisis.html "Telegraph (Sept, 2009)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Hope that new governments in Greece and Italy will stop EU deterioration" The year 2011 has been remarkable -- the Arab spring, the deterioration of Europe and the eurozone, the rise of left-wing violence in Europe and America, and the financial deterioration of America are just a few of the things that show a world changing more and more rapidly, careening to a new destination not yet understood. In the last week alone, the financial crisis has collapsed two European governments, with new unelected leaders in both Greece and Italy. EU officials in Brussels have been blaming the deterioration of the eurozone on "greedy Anglo-Saxon speculators," and are hoping that these changes in government will "restore confidence." However, officials in Germany's government now believe that Greece's exit from the eurozone will strength the euro in the long term, and so German lawmakers are preparing for Greece’s departure from the common currency in case the new government doesn’t commit to carrying forward reforms. <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-13/euro-gains-as-new-governments-in-italy-greece-boost-confidence.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia's president Medvedev warns against cutting eurozone" Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev indicated that expelling Greece from the eurozone would cause "irreparable damage." Almost half of Russia's currency reserves are in euros. "If the number of euro zone countries is reduced, it does not mean it will make the euro a more stable currency. ... We are fans of the euro and of the euro economy." <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-13/russian-president-medvedev-warns-against-cut-in-euro-area-s-size.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia's Circassian problem grows on approach of 2014 Sochi Olympics" On November 7, the European parliament in Brussels observed Circassian Day, focusing on the increasing activism of Circassians in Europe. The Circassian issue continues to gain increasing international attention because of the 2014 Winter Olympics to take place in the Black Sea resort of Sochi. However, as I <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e101030 "first reported"#> a year ago, Sochi is claimed by the Circassians as their terrority, and it is the site of a well remembered major battle between Circassians and Russians in 1864, a battle that the Circassians claim was a Russian genocidal killing of Circassians. Russia’s reaction to the increased awareness of the Circassian issue has been mixed. Some officials have dismissed Circassian claims or made gestures of accomodation, while The Russian military quietly has relocated a brigade into the region near Sochi, apparently to strengthen the Russian military presence in the northwestern Caucasus to protect the Sochi Olympic from possible attacks. It is open to question, however, how effective the military would be against a terrorist attack by Circassian activists. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38645&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=233cebecd6827144636b42089bec472c "Jamestown"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Jihadists from Caucasus, Uzbekistan and Xinjiang linking up" <#inc ww2010.pic g111113c.jpg right "" "Central Asia, highlighting North Caucasus, Uzbekistan, Xinjiang"#> With both the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and North Caucasus (NC) militant groups suffering from devastating manpower losses, some Uzbek analysts and security officers project the two extremist groups will pair up. In 1944, Soviet authorities deported about 500,000 residents of the North Caucasus, including Chechens, Ingush, Circassians, Balkarians and Azeris, to Central Asia, citing fears of wartime disloyalty. The exiled populations lived there until 1989, when they began returning to their ancestral homelands as the Soviet regime collapsed. Now the two groups are finding common ground, and are receiving training in Pakistan's tribal areas, as well as in the Caucasus. Furthermore, the Muslim Uyghur separatists in China's northwest Xinjiang province are also linking up, demanding that Xinjiang become Uyghur Autonomous Region of China. <#stdurl http://centralasiaonline.com/en_GB/articles/caii/features/main/2011/11/09/feature-01 "Central Asia Online"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Peter Schweizer exposes massive Washington corruption on '60 Minutes'" Appearing on CBS's show 60 Minutes on Sunday, BigPeace editor Peter Schweizer revealed his research that shows that Congressmen and Senators of both parties are using inside information on secret lawmaking negotiations to line their pockets with huge profits in the stock markets. Ordinary people would go to jail for insider trading for this sleazy behavior, but Congress has conveniently exempted itself, allowing it to commit crimes and enrich themselves on a daily basis and get away with it. <#stdurl http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18560_162-57323527/congress-trading-stock-on-inside-information/ "CBS 60 Minutes"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Berlusconi: 'I am the Jesus Christ of politics'" Now that Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has been forced out of office, and is being blamed as a buffoon and a thief, people are recalling some of their favorite Berlusconi quotes, including the following:
"The choices we make will be decisive for the Greek people. The participation of our country in the eurozone is a guarantee for the country's monetary stability. It is a driver of financial prosperity. The path will not be easy but I am convinced the problems will be solved faster and at a smaller cost if there is unity and consensus."He'll need all the blessings he can get. His job is being called a 'poisoned chalice': to push through harsh austerity measures needed to qualify for the EU's next €8 billion bailout installment before Greece goes bankrupt in December. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15691697 "BBC"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "France demands an investigation into S&P's 'shocking' error" The S&P Ratings service accidentally released a message on Thursday saying that France's AAA credit status had been downgraded. Although the mistake was corrected quickly, it resulted in a spike in France's bond yields (indicating increased fear of French default). French officials are demanding an investigation into the mistake, but some analysts are pointing out that the fact that the message accidentally went out indicates that the ratings agencies are working on an eventual downgrade. <#stdurl http://www.euronews.net/2011/11/11/sp-downgrades-france-by-mistake/ "Euro News"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Investors pop the champagne corks - again" It doesn't take much these days to get investors' hopes soaring, and that's what happened on Friday, when Greece swore in a new prime minister, and Italy's parliament passed austerity measures on Friday, paving the way for final approval over the weekend. Wall Street stock prices soared with investors' hopes, rising 2-3%. Everybody's now hoping that the worst is over. Greece and Italy have new "technocrat" governments, poised to pass their austerity measures, France will keep its AAA rating, and everything will settle down again. In other news, the Boston Red Sox are expected to win the 2011 World Series. <#stdurl http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/11/11/wall-street-soars-on-euro-hopes-data/ "Fox News"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Who owns the northern lights?" <#inc ww2010.pic g111111c.jpg right "" "Northern Lights in Norway (DPA)"#> Norway's officials are unhappy about an attempt by Finland to use the aurora borealis, or nothern lights, in a marketing campaign promoting tourism in Finland. The Norwegians like to think that the northern lights are associated first and foremost with their country, that the Finns may be looking to muscle in on their territory. A Norwegian tourism promoter said, "We can not stand by and watch the Finns try to grab a bigger share [of the northern lights market]. We will not give up -- the northern lights will be ours." <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/0,1518,797225,00.html "Spiegel"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Human Rights Watch asks Arab League to expel Syria" Based on more than 110 interviews with victimes and witnesses from Homs, Syria, Human Rights Watch is accusing the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad of committing crimes against humanity, including torture and unlawful killings. At a Saturday meeting of the Arab League, HRW will ask the League to impose sanctions on Syria. But they face stiff opposition from Mr Assad's allies in the League, among them Iraq, Lebanon and Sudan. <#stdurl http://www.hrw.org/news/2011/11/11/syria-crimes-against-humanity-homs "Human Rights Watch"#> and <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8884600/Syria-Arab-League-under-new-pressure-to-act-against-Assad-regime.html "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria's army defections may lead to a coup d'état" The violence in Syria has been increasing in the two weeks since the regime of president Bashar al-Assad agreed to a peace plan offered by the Arab League. It's now clear that Assad's acceptance of the plan was simply a smokescreen, but it's significant nonetheless because accepting the plan was an admission that it was Syria's own army, rather than foreign conspirators or "armed terrorist gangs," who were using bloody violence against unarmed civilians. However, Syrian troops are increasingly unwilling to fire on innocent protesters, and the surge in daily defections is quickly becoming the "Free Syrian Army." Although Assad hopes to buy enough time to beat down the protesters, he's gradually losing control over security conditions, and a military coup d'état can no longer be dismissed as an impossibility. <#stdurl http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/the-damascus-conundrum-1.927119 "Gulf News"#> There is widespread fear that we're going to see a repeat of the bloody Syrian civil war that climaxed in the 1982 massacre of tens of thousands of civilians in Hama in a few days by Syria's army, under the orders of the current president's father. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, that kind of outcome is completely impossible, for the simple reason that the generations of survivors of that war are still around, and will do everything possible to prevent a repeat of that horror. So a military coup d'état does appear to be the likely climax of Syria's generational awakening era conflict. Very often, this kind of government change is completely bloodless, like the resignation of Richard Nixon that climaxed America's last awakening era. We can't really expect a completely bloodless coup (or "velvet coup") in Syria, however, since there's already been a fair amount of blood spilled, with some 3,000 people killed in eight months. But a coup d'état, if it comes, is less likely to come with a bang than with a whimper. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1035 "12-Nov-11 World View -- Lucas Papademos promises to keep Greece in the eurozone"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111111 11-Nov-11 World View -- World focuses on Mario Draghi and the European Central Bank for the 'Big Bazooka' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111111.head 11-Nov-11 World View -- World focuses on Mario Draghi and the European Central Bank for the 'Big Bazooka' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111111.keys Generational Dynamics, Mario Draghi, ECB, Big Bazooka, Lucas Papademos, Italy, Silvio Berlusconi, Mario Monti, Jean-Claude Trichet, Angela Merkel, George Papandreou, Nicolas Sarkozy, José Manuel Barroso, European Commission, Spratly Islands, South China Sea, Philippines, China, Prince William, Catherine, Falkland Islands, Argentina =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111111.loc ww2010.weblog.log1111 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111111.date 11-Nov-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111111.txt1 China to Philippines: 'Prepare for the sound of cannons' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111111.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * World focuses on Mario Draghi and the European Central Bank for the 'Big Bazooka'
"In the end, clearly, there will be two European gears: one gear towards more integration in the euro zone and a gear that is more confederal in the European Union."The division between euro and non-euro countries in the EU has been causing increased friction and hostility, because the eurozone countries are making decisions that affect everyone, and the non-eurozone countries don't have a say in the decisions. Talk of a split Europe is becoming increasingly serious, leading European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso to object:
"Let me be clear - a split union will not work. This is true for a union with different parts engaged in contradictory objectives; a union with an integrated core but a disengaged periphery; a union dominated by an unhealthy balance of power or indeed any kind of directorium. [The EU is based on justice, equality and rule of law,] not on any power or forces.If you've been following this debate, Dear Reader, then you must realize that we're in a time of major historic changes, with the changes occurring more and more rapidly each day. The feeling that events really are spinning out of control is growing. <#stdurl http://euobserver.com/18/114236 "EU Observer"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China to Philippines: 'Prepare for the sound of cannons'" There have been at least nine incidents since March between the Philippines and China over their conflicting claims to the Spratly Islands and the South China Sea. In the latest incident, on October 19, a Philippine warship became entangled with the cables of a Chinese fishing vessel, which at the time was towing 23 unmanned dinghies. The Chinese boat immediately left the scene, abandoning the dinghies. A Chinese newspaper has warned the Philippines against provoking China into taking retaliatory military action. "A counter-attack is likely," the newspaper said in a strongly worded editorial, adding that the Philippines "should prepare for the sound of cannons" from China. A columnist in the same paper urged Beijing to wage "tiny-scale battles" against both the Philippines and Vietnam "to teach them a lesson." <#stdurl http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/MK10Ae01.html "Asia Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Prince William will leave wife Kate for the rocky Falklands" Prince William, the Duke of Cambridge, will be deployed to the Falkland Islands for six weeks next February and March, in a routine assignment as a Royal Air Force search and rescue co-pilot. As 2012 will be the 30th anniversary of Britain's defeat of Argentina in the Falklands War. The RAF is making clear that William will not conduct any ceremonial duties while he is there, to prevent tensions from worsening. His new wife Catherine will not accompany him. William has increased his workload recently as he seeks promotion, and hopes that this deployment will allow him to take full charge of his helicopter. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-15682242 "BBC"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1034 "11-Nov-11 News -- World focuses on Mario Draghi and the European Central Bank for the 'Big Bazooka'"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111110 10-Nov-11 World View -- Pandemonium in Europe shocks world markets =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111110.head 10-Nov-11 World View -- Pandemonium in Europe shocks world markets =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111110.keys Generational Dynamics, Greece, George Papandreou, Antonis Samaras, Italy, bond panic, European Central Bank, ECB, Silvio Berlusconi, Ghana, Agogo, Fulanis, Occupy Wall Street, Tahrir Square, Russia, Just Russia, North Caucasus =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111110.loc ww2010.weblog.log1111 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111110.date 10-Nov-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111110.txt1 Protests in Russia unify ethnic Russians against the North Caucasus =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111110.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Greece's Papandreou says his successor will be .........
"Today we leave aside our differences [with] a common effort to ensure the country moves forward, not only to remain part of the eurozone but also to emerge from the crisis. [The interim government would] justify the sacrifices made by the Greek people over the past two years. ... I never put my position above the national good. For me, Greece is above everything. Wherever I go, I will carry the Greek flag in my heart."He also said that he would do everything he could to support the new prime minister and the new government. But he didn't resign, and he didn't indicate who his successor will be, because of bitter disagreements with the opposition. Greece still hasn't received the next €8 billion bailout payment, which was to have been provided right about now, in time to make the next debt payment. But European officials have conditioned it on formation of a new government that passes the committed austerity measures, and every day's delay in forming a new government also delays the bailout payment. <#stdurl http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_11158_09/11/2011_414058 "Kathimerini"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Italy unravels in bond panic" What appears to be a full-fledged bond panic began on Wednesday, as yields (interest rates) on Italy's bonds went parabolic, going well above 7% to 7.25%. Italy has €1.9 trillion in debt, with something like €77 billion scheduled to roll over this year, and €200 billion next year. Having to pay 7.25% interest on this new debt would move Italy into a vicious downward spiral. Even worse, the interest rate appears poised to continue increasing, perhaps to 10% and beyond. That's what happened to Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Here's a comparison of what happened to Greece last year with what's happening to Italy right now: <#inc ww2010.pic g111109c.gif center "" "Greece's bond yield went above 7% in April of last year, and kept going up. Now the same thing is happening to Italy's bonds"#> When Greece's bond yields began to exceed 7% last year, I wrote that a major panic was in progress. As you can see, Greece's bond yields then ran up above 12%, before they were brought down temporarily by the shock and awe bailout package announced on May 9, after which they continued to rise. Wednesday's surge to 7.25% may indicate that a major new panic is in progress. <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-09/italy-s-senate-speeds-vote-as-berlusconi-prepares-resignation.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pandemonium in Europe shocks world markets" Wall Street stocks fell 3-4% on Wednesday, as investors realized that Italy is too big to fail but also too big to bail, and yet was failing anyway. There's really only one proposal on the table that following the "Kick the Can Principle," and that's to have the European Central Bank (ECB) "print money" and use it to purchase massive amounts of Italian bonds, enough to bring the yields down. There are just a few problems with this idea -- the Germans are against it, the ECB is against it, and it violates existing eurozone treaties. Even so, it's on the table. <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/nov/09/eurozone-disaster-scenarios?newsfeed=true "Guardian"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Chaotic European politics raises fears of a collapse of the euro zone" French and Germany officials have been holding discussions for a split of the eurozone, even though some people believe that this move would bring forward the nationalistic hatreds that led to World War II. Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said he would step down, but he insisted on new elections, leaving both Italy and Greece facing long periods of political instability, at a time when the entire European economy is deteriorating into chaos. Even with Berlusconi gone, there's no credible belief that his replacement, whoever that may be, will be able to solve Italy's problems any better than he did. <#stdurl http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCATRE7A831520111109 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Xenophobia towards Fulanis in Ghana becomes extreme" <#inc ww2010.pic g111109d.jpg right "" "The Agogo youth protest over the Fulani occupation of their land"#> Although they're ethnically similar, and share a common religion (Islam), tension is mounting between the residents of Ghana and the nomadic Fulanis in the city of Agogo. The Fulani culture is one of herding cattle and trading, and this requires cattle herds to travel over residents' land. This was even an issue in America in the 1800s, when the cowboys complained that the farmers were building too many fences, and the farmers were complaining that the cowboys's herds were destroying their crops. This was a theme of the Broadway show Oklahoma!. In Agogo, the Fulanis and their herds are being forced off of the lands in one region, but they have no place to go because no one wants them on their land. This has resulted in extreme xenophobic accusations of murder, rape and inhuman treatment. <#stdurl http://edition.myjoyonline.com/pages/news/201111/76168.php "Joy Online (Agopo)"#> and <#stdurl http://www.citifmonline.com/index.php?id=1.290993.1.648286 "Citi FM Online"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The 'Occupy Wall Street' protests began in Tahrir Square" One effect that has inspired little comment has been the spread of the "Arab spring" protests to the West. Western media largely report the Occupy wall Street protest as the inspiration for other protest across the world. But this new form of protest took the ancient route out of the Arab world, through Spain. Inspiring the young Spanish Indignados to occupy squares in cities across their country, before moving across the Atlantic to America. There is little, if anything, new in the "Occupy" protests that was not already present in Tahrir Square in Cairo. <#stdurl http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MK01Ak02.html "Asia Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Protests in Russia unify ethnic Russians against the North Caucasus" National Unity Day in Russia, on November 4, brought formerly opposed protest groups together on a single issue: to demand an end to the government’s financing of the North Caucasus. Tens of thousands of protesters from different groups -- the nationalist Just Russia party, democratic activists, the Communist party, and others -- protested in cities across Russia, with slogans such as "Russia for Russians" and "Stop Feeding the Caucasus." The level of xenophobia between ethnic (Orthodox Christian) Russians and (Muslim) Caucasians has been surging. The Russian government has been pouring money into the North Caucasus in an attempt to quell the unrest, as the 2014 Olympics games in Sochi in the North Caucasus approach. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=38634&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=512 "Jamestown"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1033 "10-Nov-11 World View -- Pandemonium in Europe shocks world markets"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111109 9-Nov-11 World View -- Iran nuclear report raises questions of sanctions and military action =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111109.head 9-Nov-11 World View -- Iran nuclear report raises questions of sanctions and military action =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111109.keys Generational Dynamics, Silvio Berlusconi, Italy, United Nations, International Atomic Energy Authority, IAEA, Ehud Barak, Israel, Iran, Iraq, Hizbollah, Lebanon, Barack Obama, Nicolas Sarkozy, Security Council, China, Russia, Star Trek, Captain Kirk, Spock, Nazi Germany =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111109.loc ww2010.weblog.log1111 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111109.date 9-Nov-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111109.txt1 Obama and Sarkozy say that they can't stand Israel's Netanyahu =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111109.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Italy's Berlusconi loses parliamentary majority, appears close to resigning
"To be honest, this needs a special kind of analysis, because the Syrian regime is genuinely stuck in a mentality of denial. They are truly unable to believe that there is actually a protest movement against them. Everything that's going on around them is actually a conspiracy. Therefore, they try to paint a new reality, a virtual reality, in which they live.... When I say the Syrian media are dishonest, I mean they are dishonest even in weather forecasting. They believe that if they say, 'It's too hot today', it will negatively affect tourism. They believe if they speak about the drought in Syria, it will be an indirect reference to government policy. They actually go so far as to invent these armed terrorist gangs. They get people to act the role, and they go and film them, and any professional can tell that they are quite professional in filming and in directing and in using zoom-in and zoom-out, but it's low quality."=inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Italy's Berlusconi uses Facebook posting to deny resignation" <#inc ww2010.pic g111107c.gif right "" "Italy 10 year bond yield at 6.66% on 7-Nov"#> Bond yields (interest rates) on Italy's ten-year bonds took another sharp upward spike on Monday, to the devilish level of 6.66%. Italy has €1.9 trillion in debt, and large chunks of it have to be rolled over in the next few months. Bond yields are rising rapidly, are already unsustainable, and may soon exceed 7%. In this environment, Italy's prime minister Silvio Berlusconi is being pressured to resign. On Monday, Berlusconi used a posting on Facebook to deny that he's planning to resign, but his support is deteriorating, and many believe he'll step down soon. That won't be the end of his troubles, as he's facing some legal actions that were postponed as long as he's in office. <#stdurl http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/2011/11/08/silvio-berlusconi-denies-he-s-quitting-on-facebook-115875-23545458/ "Mirror"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Silvio Berlusconi postpones release of his latest love songs" Italy's prime minister Silvio Berlusconi has been forced to delay the release of his latest love song album, entitled "True Love," with words by Berlusconi and music by his long time guitarist partner Mariano Apicella. The album had been due for release in September, with a huge launch party planned in Milan. Berlusconi is a former cruise ship crooner, and this would be his fourth album of love songs. But as he struggles to tackle Italy's massive public debt, hold together his crumbling coalition and defend himself in three trials, Berlusconi has been forced to push the release date back, <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/nov/02/financial-crisis-berlusconi-love-song?newsfeed=true "Guardian"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1028 "8-Nov-11 World View -- With Italy crumbling, euro crisis approaches an end game"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111107 7-Nov-11 World View -- Congressional 'Super Committee' faces same problems as Greece and Italy =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111107.head 7-Nov-11 World View -- Congressional 'Super Committee' faces same problems as Greece and Italy =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111107.keys GenerationalDynamics, Hajj, Stoning the devil, Saudi Arabia, Italy, Greece, George Papandreou, Silvio Berlusconi, IMF, Spain, Kick the Can Principle, China, Burma, Vietnam, Philippines, Libya =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111107.loc ww2010.weblog.log1111 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111107.date 7-Nov-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111107.txt1 China's 'good neighbor' policy failing, as neighbors turn against China =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111107.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Muslim hajj pilgrims perform devil stoning ritual
"You'd have thought that the United States debt-ceiling debacle and the eurozone's endless cycle of half-measures declared and quarter-measures taken would have impressed upon Western leaders the urgency of finding new solutions to their economic difficulties and the modesty of recognizing the need for help in implementing them. You'd be wrong. Instead, they responded to a recent proposal from some emerging countries to increase the firepower of the IMF with a mixture of fear and arrogance."<#stdurl http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2011-11/05/content_14042130.htm "China Daily"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Britain's David Cameron issues a stark warning" As we've reported, Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron is unhappy with the euro leaders because he was excluded from their recent summit meeting. He did attend the G-20 meeting, issued a stark warning. "I am not going to pretend all the problems in the eurozone have been fixed. They have not. The task for the eurozone is the same as going into this summit. The world can't wait for the eurozone to go through endless questions and changes about this. We, like the rest of the world, need the eurozone to sort out its problems. We need more to happen in terms of detail on the European firewall." He added that this is only "a stage of the global crisis." <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/nov/04/global-recession-g20-summit "Guardian"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Papandreou barely survives confidence vote in Greece's parliament" <#inc ww2010.pic g111104b.jpg right "" "Papandreou shakes hands with Venizelos after winning the confidence vote"#> Greece's Prime Minister George Papandreou won a confidence vote in Parliament early on Saturday by a vote of 153 out of 300 MPs. Papandreou is being asked to step aside by many in his own party and the opposition. In that case, it's thought that Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos is most likely to succeed him, until elections could be called. Papandreou has indicated that he would like lead a coalition government until early elections could be called. <#stdurl http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_31432_05/11/2011_413383 "Kathimerini"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Threats grow against Iran's nuclear program" Israel's President Shimon Peres on Friday said that the media speculation about a potential Israeli attack on Iran may have some basis in truth, since he believes probably won't be possible to find a diplomatic solution. French President Nicolas Sarkozy condemned Iran's nuclear program and said France would not stand idly by "if Israel's existence were threatened. ... Iran's behavior and this obsessional desire to acquire nuclear military (capability) is in violation of all international rules, and France condemns firmly the lack of respect for these rules." <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=244404 "Jerusalem Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The 'Freedom Waves to Gaza' flotilla is seized by Israel" The two boats in the "Freedom Waves to Gaza" flotilla that approached Gaza on Friday with the purpose of breaking Israel's blockade of Gaza were seized by the Israeli Defenses Forces (IDF) navy, after they were boarded and led to the Israeli port Ashdod. No one was hurt, according to the IDF, and the activists on board were turned over to police and immigration authorities. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=244392 "Jerusalem Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Britain will abstain on U.N. Security Council Palestine statehood vote" Britain says that it will join France in formally abstaining in the United Nations Security Council on any vote to admit a Palestinian state as a U.N. member. Admitting a new state to U.N. membership requires a Security Council vote, and Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas has already formally request such a vote. However, the United States has already announced that it will veto the proposal, so Britain's and France's abstentions are symbolic. However, they are a humiliation for Abbas because Hamas has opposed the bid, and because Hamas has gained additional respect versus Abbas among Palestinians for negotiating the deal that freed over 1,000 Palestinians from Israeli jails in return for a captured Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/palestinianauthority/8869966/Britain-to-abstain-on-Palestine-statehood-vote-at-UN.html "Telegraph"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1024 "5-Nov-11 World View -- Threats grow against Iran's nuclear program"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111104 4-Nov-11 World View -- Greece buckles to European demands and cancels referendum =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111104.head 4-Nov-11 World View -- Greece buckles to European demands and cancels referendum =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111104.keys Generational Dynamics, Europe, Greece, bailout, Nicolas Sarkozy, Angela Merkel, George Papandreou, Ben Bernanke, kicking the can down the road =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111104.loc ww2010.weblog.log1111 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111104.date 4-Nov-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111104.txt1 Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's press conference =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111104.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Greece buckles to European demands and cancels referendum
"Well, we have the ability to provide more stimulus and accomodation. We believe that a good bit of the unemployment that we are seeing is what economists would call cyclical unemployment, that is unemployment rising because of inadequate demand in the economy. If that's the case, then monetary policy by lowering interest rates, making financial conditions more accomodative should stimulate demand, should stimulate spending, over a period of time, that will help bring down cyclical unemployment. That is something we know from a lot of experience, and although it's been a very slow process here, there's no reason to think that the same basic effect will not work in this case as well. Now, it's also possible that part of the increase in unemployment reflects so-calld structural factors, mismatches between workers skills and job opportunities, loss of skills, geographical mistmach, etc. And to the extent that that's the case, then monetary policy is much less effective, because in that case only other kinds of labor market policies can make progress against that type of unemployment. Then again, I do think that a considerable part of the unemployment we're seeing is cyclical, and is thus amenable to monetary policy. Final comment. Cyclical umplopyment left untreated, so to speak, for a long time can become structural unemployment as people lose skills, they lose attachment to the labor force, as their work networks dry up and so on. So in that respect, it's important for us to try to address the unemployment problem, in a sense, while it's still amenable to monetary policy."With regard to the first paragraph above, I cannot for the life of me see how Bernanke can possibly believe what he's saying. He says we know certain things from "a lot of experience," when the whole point of the question he was asked were that those things have been abject failures in the last three years. In a <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e111008 "report"#> last month, I quoted former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan as saying, "All the econometric models failed in 2008 - across the board." Surely Bernanke knows that as well, and yet he and other analysts and economists keep saying that what has failed before will work next time. The fact is that when Bernanke talks about "a lot of experience," he's talking about the period from 1945 to 1990. Nothing in that period is relevant today, and that's why all the econometric models fail, time after time. You have to go back to the 1930s to find data that's relevant today. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Following the script" I've been writing on Generational Dynamics for close to ten years now, and I've always tried to push the envelope to see what could be predicted, based on generational forecasting, and what could not. I've frequently pointed out that each individual has free will and can do anything he wants, but when you're talking about a generation that has millions of people, then certain kinds of aggregate actions and behaviors can be predicted with mathematical certainly. I've used the analogy that if you throw a rock into a lake, then you can't predict what any individual water molecule will do, but you can predict with certainty what kind of waves and ripples you'll get. The last few days have solidified for me a feeling that's been growing -- that the world has been following a preordained generational script, that cannot be prevented or avoided. And a Greek referendum was not in the script. The script that's being followed is very similar to the one the world was following in the 1930s. When I wrote my article on the 1932 book, <#hreftext ww2010.i.garrett071009 ""The bubble that broke the world,""#> I suggested that just as America tried to bail out Germany in 1931, China might try to bail out America in the current crisis. We can now understand why America tried to bail out Germany in 1931. America was forced by international pressure to do so, just as Europe is being forced by international pressure to bail out Greece, and Greece is forced to accept the terms. When I was in school in the 1950s, there were two major mysteries about the 1930s that everyone referred to. First, why did all the economists keep saying that the worst was over, even though the Great Depression continued to worsen? And second, why did England believe in "peace in our time," when it was clear to Churchill and a few others that Germany was rapidly arming itself for war, while everyone else seemed oblivious to it. Today I won't attempt to go into the question of why everyone seems oblivious to China's massive preparations for war with the U.S., except to point out that the situation with Germany is the obvious analogy. But the first question, on why 1930s economists kept saying that the worst is over, is completely analogous to Bernanke's inane statement quoted above. I've repeatedly pointed out on my web site that economists can't explain the tech bubble that began in 1995 -- why it occurred at all, and why it didn't occur instead in 1985 or 2005. Even if you don't accept all of generational theory, the answer to this question is unambiguously obvious -- the 1990s was the time when the survivors of the 1929 crash and the 1930s Great Depression all disappeared -- retired or died, all at once. As obvious as that is, I've never seen a single mainstream economist state it or even discuss it. This has always astounded me. Apparently, never admitting to a generational explanation for anything is part of the generational script, since admitting to a generational explanation implies that you can't do anything about it, and most people are emotionally unable to handle that. One more point that I've emphasized before: The script cannot be controlled by politicians. In the United States, under President Barack Obama, I'm not aware of a single major policy that would be any different if President George Bush had had a third term. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110922 ""22-Sep-11 World View -- Obama delivers 'warmest pro-Israel speech ever' to UN""#>) =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Elements of the script" So what are the elements of the script, and how can we define them so as to make it possible to make intelligent forecasts about the future? I've written about this subject in <#hreftext ww2010.i.forecast090503 ""Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology,""#> and so this hypothesis of a "script" is new material that supplements the previous document. The phrase that we hear constantly is "kick the can down the road," which means that no one in power can make a decision, except to make a decision to postpone making a decision. In the 1930s, America bailed out Germany to delay the worst of the Great Depression, and England believed in "peace in our time" in order to avoid preparing for war. Both of these actions were attempts to "kick the can down the road." Thus, we hypothesize as follows: In this generational Crisis era, if you want to forecast what's going to happen in the future, then forecast the solution that kicks the can down the road. Thus, the Greek referendum was not in the script because it risked too much. However, the referendum might have gone ahead, in which case there would have been a worldwide effort to convince the Greek people to accept the euro deal, and it would have passed. The generational script must be followed. Once we've accepted this hypothesis, then we can predict many things. Greece will get its next bailout payment, and the one after that. China will try to bail out Europe at some point. America will remain oblivious to China's military buildup. In each case, the problem being addressed has no solution. For example, Greece will eventually default, and bring down euroland. Most people emotionally simply can't face up to that, and so they argue with one another about solutions that can't work. The arguing only stops when a real crisis occurs. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "A little generational theory" The 1990s was called a generational Unraveling era, because all the rules that the survivors of the previous crisis war (WW II) put in place, to prevent another war, unraveled. The 2000s have been a generational Crisis era, but it has two parts. The early part of a Crisis era is what's still happening today -- endless political bickering over insoluble problems. One researcher (Matt Ignal) has referred to this as the "post-Unraveling" portion of the Crisis era. The second part occurs when the real crisis begins. In our case, it will be a worldwide financial panic, a major terrorist attack on American soil, a Chinese attack on Taiwan, or some other terrifying event. Generational theory calls those "regeneracy events," because those are the events that end the political bickering once and for all, and regenerate civic unity for the first time since the end of WW II. So the post-Unraveling is a period of enormous anxiety, when the world tries one desperate solution after another to postpone the inevitable disaster. The regeneracy is the disaster that finally occurs, and leads to the real crisis -- in our case a major global fiscal crisis and a new world war. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1022 "4-Nov-11 News -- Greece buckles to European demands and cancels referendum"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111103 3-Nov-11 World View -- Fallout spreads from Greece's call for referendum =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111103.head 3-Nov-11 World View -- Fallout spreads from Greece's call for referendum =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111103.keys Generational Dynamics, Israel, West Bank, settlements, Palestinian Authority, UNESCO, Benjamin Netanyahu, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Arab League, Freedom Waves to Gaza flotilla, IMF, Christine Lagarde, Greece, George Papandreou, referendum, Nicolas Sarkozy, Angela Merkel =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111103.loc ww2010.weblog.log1111 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111103.date 3-Nov-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111103.txt1 Israel is widely condemned for approving new settlements =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111103.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Israel approves 2,300 new settlements as punishment for Palestinian Authority
"I welcome the prime minister’s indication that the referendum which has been announced will take place as soon as possible so that the euro summit agreement can be implemented expeditiously. As soon as the referendum is completed, and all uncertainty removed, I will make a recommendation to the IMF Executive Board regarding the sixth tranche of our loan to support Greece’s economic program."<#stdurl http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_32331_03/11/2011_412991 "Kathimerini"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece announces plans for a December 4 referendum" Prime Minister George Papandreou is being condemned by furious EU leaders Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel, as well as by politicians in Athens. He will face a vote of no confidence of Friday, and if it succeeds, then the referendum will be canceled and instead there will be new elections. Sarko and Merkel summoned Papandreou to an emergency summit meeting in Cannes on Wednesday, to tell him that Greece will not receive any more loans until the issue is resolved. However, Papandreou insisted on going forward:
"The Greek people want us to remain in the euro zone,» he told reporters after talks with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. «We are part of the euro zone and we are proud to be part of the euro zone. Being part of the euro zone means having many rights and also obligations. We can live up to these obligations. I do believe there is a wide consensus among the Greek people and that's why I want the Greek people to speak."Papandreou announced that the referendum will take place on December 4. Expect to see total chaos in Europe until then, as everybody works to convince the Greek people to vote to say in the eurozone. <#stdurl http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_18661_03/11/2011_412993 "Kathimerini"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece shrugs off talk of a Greek army coup" Greece has a history of military coups, and the firing on Tuesday of top army generals has raised concerns in the foreign press that a coup might be in progress or imminent. However, Greeks are shrugging off these concerns, saying that the army no longer has enough political power. According to one analyst, the move is simply pure politics, done at a time when Papandreou fears losing the planned vote of no confidence. "To reshuffle the top brass is (something) typically done by outgoing governments, which appoint some of their own to top position before leaving power. We do not think that the move was indicative of increased coup risks, simply because the Greek army of today is not likely to even mull coup ideas." <#stdurl http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/11/02/idINIndia-60283220111102 "Reuters"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1021 "3-Nov-11 World View -- Fallout spreads from Greece's call for referendum"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111102 2-Nov-11 World View -- Euro in crisis again, as Greece melts down after referendum bombshell =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111102.head 2-Nov-11 World View -- Euro in crisis again, as Greece melts down after referendum bombshell =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111102.keys Generational Dynamics, euro, Greece, George Papandreou, Evangelos Venizelos, MF Global, Jon Corzine, Allied Home Mortgages, Russia, North Caucasus, Kyrgyzstan, Almazbek Atambayev, Manas air force base =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111102.loc ww2010.weblog.log1111 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111102.date 2-Nov-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111102.txt1 Foreign central banks are no longer buying US Treasuries =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111102.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Universal fury at George Papandreou for referendum call
"Syria is different in every respect from Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen. The history is different. The politics is different. Syria is the hub now in this region. It is the fault line, and if you play with the ground you will cause an earthquake … Do you want to see another Afghanistan, or tens of Afghanistans? Any problem in Syria will burn the whole region. If the plan is to divide Syria, that is to divide the whole region."Assad insisted that his army is targeting only "terrorists." <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8857898/Assad-challenge-Syria-at-your-peril.html "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Support for Assad regime" External intervention in Syria could meet with substantial opposition. Last week, there was another large pro-Assad demonstration with tens and perhaps hundreds of thousands of people, including veiled women, old men, thousands of children with "Syria" written on their faces. The struggle in Syria now cuts through the center of the country and that many armed men now oppose the army. <#stdurl http://www.dp-news.com/en/detail.aspx?articleid=101468 "Robert Fisk"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Is Iran dropping its support for Syria?" According to an analysis by Debka, the lengthy October 23 <#stdurl http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1110/23/fzgps.01.html "CNN interview"#> of Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was part of the power struggle between Ahmadinejad and supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and signaled a revised Iranian strategy that includes the removal of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. In that interview, Ahmadinejad said,
"Nobody, nobody, nobody has the right to kill others, neither the government nor the opponents. Our recommendation is very clear and it is a recommendation for all. for the United States: Instead of capturing or arresting people, they should hear the voice. They should listen to the people and they have things to say. And they should pay attention to their demands and needs. We say that governments must be responsible for the needs and desires of their own peoples, the security of the people and their rights. And this is general for Iran, for Libya, for Syria, for Europe, United States, Africa, everywhere. And this is a general rule for all. We have announced that many times."Thus, Iran and Turkey are drawing close to a rapprochement after a year of vitriolic exchanges of Iran, and are developing a joint strategy. Separately, Debka reports that Syria is laying land mines along the border with Turkey, and is preparing for military intervention. <#stdurl http://www.debka.com/article/21428/ "Debka"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.S. economy tipping into recession" Dozens of specialized leading indexes indicate that the U.S. economy is tipping into a new recession, and that there's nothing that policy makers can do to prevent it. A new recession isn’t simply a statistical event. It’s a vicious cycle that, once started, must run its course. Under certain circumstances, a drop in sales, for instance, lowers production, which results in declining employment and income, which in turn weakens sales further, all the while spreading like wildfire from industry to industry, region to region, and indicator to indicator. <#stdurl http://www.businesscycle.com/reports_indexes/reportsummarydetails/1091 "Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Germany's Constitutional Court vetoes high-speed bailout decisions" <#inc ww2010.pic g111029c.jpg right "" "Germany's Constitutional Court"#> Germany's Verfassungsgericht (Federal Constitutional Court) has issued a temporary injunction banning the work of a new nine-person panel setup by the Bundestag (parliament) to make speedy decisions on proposals related to the euro bailout mechanism, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). The first committee meeting, scheduled for Friday, was cancelled. It's feared that Germany's parliament might take weeks or months to make decision required to implement the EFSF, and so the committee was set up to streamline decision making. But according to one opponent of the committee, "The Bundestag cannot be replaced by a nine-member committee on such important issues." <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,794578,00.html "Der Spiegel"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1015 "30-Oct-11 News -- Tension over Syria mounts as Arab League meets on Sunday"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111029 29-Oct-11 World View -- Kenya gets mired in Somalia, and U.S. involvement rapidly expands =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111029.head 29-Oct-11 World View -- Kenya gets mired in Somalia, and U.S. involvement rapidly expands =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111029.keys Generational Dynamics, China, housing bubble, credit bubble, EFSF, Klaus Regling, Fitch Ratings, Greece, haircut, Kenya, Somalia, Mwai Kibak, Abdiweli Mohammed Ali, Ethiopia, Arba Minch base, Reapers, al-Shabaab =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111029.loc ww2010.weblog.log1110 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111029.date 29-Oct-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111029.txt1 China's housing bubble collapses as home prices fall sharply =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111029.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * China's housing bubble collapses as home prices fall sharply
"The 50 percent nominal haircut on the proposed bond exchange would be viewed by the agency as a default event under its Distressed Debt Exchange criteria."According to an analyst, "It’s highly likely that all three rating agencies will classify this restructuring as a technical default. Even if it’s voluntary, investors are left with a product that’s lower in value to what they originally agreed. <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-28/fitch-says-50-greek-bond-haircut-would-be-default-event.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Kenya gets mired in Somalia, and U.S. involvement rapidly expands" <#inc ww2010.pic g111028b.jpg right "" "American air force base in Arba Minch, in Ethiopia (Washington Post)"#> President Mwai Kibak defended Kenya's decision to carry out a military action against al-Shabaab militia in Somalia, saying that it's not a war against Somalia. He made it clear there is no turning back and that the operation against al-Shabaab would continue until Kenya’s national security and economic interests are secured. Al-Shabaab is an affiliate of al-Qaeda. At the same time Somalia’s Prime Minister Abdiweli Mohammed Ali said in a statement that his country and Kenya shared a common strategy against al-Shabaab. "The Somali Government views the fights against al-Shabaab extremists as direct support extended to the Somali people and as an action that will improve the security of Somalia, Kenya, and of the entire Horn of Africa." <#stdurl http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/InsidePage.php?id=2000045803&cid=4 "Standard Media (Kenya)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "American expands its Arba Minch Air Force base in Ethiopia" After repeatedly denying that America had any bases in the region, the Air Force finally confirmed Thursday that an air base at Arba Minch, in Ethiopia, became operational early this year, and that it has been secretly flying Reaper drones over Somalia, as part of a rapidly expanding U.S.-led proxy war against al-Shabaab. The Air Force has invested millions of dollars to upgrade an airfield in Arba Minch, Ethiopia, where it has built a small annex to house a fleet of drones that can be equipped with Hellfire missiles and satellite-guided bombs. An early version of this story reported that the drones were armed, but the Washington Post later corrected the story to say that the drones are unarmed and have been used only for surveillance and collecting intelligence. However, the Pentagon did not rule out arming them in the future. <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-drone-base-in-ethiopia-is-operational/2011/10/27/gIQAznKwMM_story.html "Washington Post"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1009 "29-Oct-11 World View -- Kenya gets mired in Somalia, and U.S. involvement rapidly expands"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111028b 28-Oct-11 News -- Markets explode on crazy Rube Goldberg eurozone deal =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111028b.head 28-Oct-11 News -- Markets explode on crazy Rube Goldberg eurozone deal =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111028b.keys Generational Dynamics, Rube Goldberg, eurozone, Greece, DFSF, Christine LaGarde, Angela Merkel, financial engineering, Italy, Spain, Germany, Haverford Quality Investments, Hank Smith, price/earnings ratios =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111028b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1110 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111028b.date 28-Oct-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111028b.txt1 Haverford's Hank Smith lied about price/earnings ratios =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111028b.txt2 The Dow Industrials by 340 points on Thursday, on the basis of a new eurozone deal, announced at 4 am on Thursday morning, that would be beyond belief if it weren't for the fact that nothing is beyond belief today. <#inc ww2010.pic g111027.gif center "" "Device to put toothpaste on a toothbrush (Rube Goldberg)"#> This eurozone deal is the craziest Rube Goldberg thing imaginable. These European leaders got together in the middle of the night and strung together a bunch of proposals, most of which were the cause of the financial crisis in the first place. Here are the major parts of the deal, according to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-27/europe-bolsters-crisis-fighting-tools-pledging-to-provide-details-later.html "Bloomberg,"#> and according to numerous comments I heard and read on Thursday:
"Absolutely they're cheap on a P/E basis. They're selling below the historical average at about 13 times next year's earnings."This is an absolute lie, and he knows it. The historical average, based on trailing earnings, is 14. I have not seen any historical analysis of the P/E ratio based on forward earnings, but I have seen figures that indicate that forward earnings (based on analyst estimates) have averaged something like twice as high as the earnings turn out to be. This implies that the historical average for P/E ratios based on forward earnings is 7, which means that a P/E ratio of 13 is WAAAAAAAAAAAAY expensive. Even if Smith himself, who undoubtedly earnings a multi-million dollar salary, is too dumb to understand this, there's no doubt that his technical staff understands it, and so this is a purposeful lie. As I've said before, analysts and journalists on CNBC and Bloomberg tv ALWAYS lie when they talk about price/earnings ratios (also called valuations), as I've discussed in <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e101005 ""5-Oct-10 News -- Goldman Sachs's Cohen gives price/earnings fantasy""#> and <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e100824 ""24-Aug-10 News -- Ariel's Bobrinskoy gives price/earnings fantasy.""#> So, in case I've been too subtle, let me state it clearly: Hank Smith of Haverford Quality Investing was on CNBC on Thursday morning and he purposely lied about P/E ratios. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The biggest monthly point gain in history" The Dow Industrials average increased by 340 points on Thursday, and the Dow is now on pace for the biggest monthly point gain in history, according to the pundits. Back in 2004, someone online asked me, "How can you ever be proven wrong? You're predicting a financial crisis, and if it doesn't happen, then you just say it hasn't happened yet." My response at that time was, "Public debt has been increasing exponentially. If it ever starts leveling off and falling, then you can tell me I'm wrong." I was predicting that the financial crisis would occur in 2007, and that turned out to be right in the sense that the credit crunch began at that time. But the major crisis hasn't yet occurred, because governments around the world have been increasing public debt to astronomical levels. Every action taken by America, Europe, China and other countries since 2007 has been to stave off disaster by enormously increasing public debt. I can't tell the exact date when this is all going to come crashing down, but Thursday's parabolic stock market surge may indicate that it may not be far off. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1008 "28-Oct-11 News -- Markets explode on crazy Rube Goldberg eurozone deal"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111028 28-Oct-11 World View -- U.N. Security Council ends mandate for international military operations in Libya =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111028.head 28-Oct-11 World View -- U.N. Security Council ends mandate for international military operations in Libya =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111028.keys Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, BBC, Inter-Services Intelligence, ISI, Maulana Abdul Ghani, Taliban, Predator drone, Security Council, Libya, Iran, chess, Ehsan Qaem Maqami, Ehud Sachar, Israel =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111028.loc ww2010.weblog.log1110 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111028.date 28-Oct-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111028.txt1 Pakistan threatens to sue BBC over documentary on helping Taliban =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111028.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Pakistan threatens to sue BBC over documentary on helping Taliban
"Saying a country’s legal system will be based on sharia law is about as descriptive as saying it will be based on the Ten Commandants or the teachings of Christ. Like Christianity, Judaism or any other religion, Islam is subject to countless interpretations. Sharia law has meant many different things in many different countries across the ages. Even Islamic fundamentalists are not all alike. Wahhabis rule in both Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, yet liquor is readily available in the latter but not the former."Long-time readers of my web site are well aware of how skeptical I am about Western claims about Islamic Sharia law. Boot seems to have described the situation pretty well. Just to take one example, I'm much more concerned about the ISI support for the Taliban than I am about Sharia law. <#stdurl http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/10/25/libya-islamic-democratic-identity/ "Commentary"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Police and 'occupy' protesters clash in Oakland violence" Violence broke out between police and "Occupy Wall Street" protesters in Oakland, Calif. Protesters threw bottles at police, who used teargas in return. An Iraq war veteran was hit in the head with a projectile, and he is reported to be in critical condition. These left-wing protests in Greece, Spain, America, and other countries continue to exhibit low-level violence, which is expected to grow as the financial crisis grows. <#stdurl http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/july-dec11/occupywallst_10-26.html "PBS"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Financial crisis summit meeting of European leaders fails to agree on anything" <#inc ww2010.pic g111026c.jpg right "" "Sarko and Merkel on Wednesday"#> Although negotiations are extending past midnight into Thursday morning, officials at the much-hyped summit meeting of European leaders are saying that they have been unable to reach agreement on any of the major issues that they've repeatedly promised to agree on by now. A major issue is the size of the "haircut" that holders of Greek bonds will "voluntarily" have to take. Bankers, the major bondholders, originally agreed to the 21% haircut announced in July, but they're now balking at the 50%+ haircut that's currently under consideration, preferring instead to force a "credit event" that will allow them to collect on their credit default swap (CDS) insurance after a Greek default. Another issue is the increase to the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), a bailout fund which is supposed to prevent future crises. They want to increase the fund to €2 trillion or more from its current €440 million, but they can't agree on who will provide the funding. <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-26/impasse-on-greek-debt-relief-threatens-eu-crisis-summit-deal.html "Bloomberg"#> Update: Early Thursday morning, bankers and politicians announced an agreement on a 50% "haircut." =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Dutch finance minister blames the 'Anglo-Saxon press'" Holland Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager blames the Anglo-Saxon press for attaching so much importance to Wednesday's failed summit. "We never talked about this summit as the decisive summit. It has only been portrayed as such by the Anglo-Saxon press," he said. <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20111025-714553.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Catholics vs Protestants in European fiscal crisis" The BBC presented some comedic material on the European fiscal crisis, and one of the comedians was Abie Philbin Bowman. The following is my transcription of what he said, which is supposed to be funny, but which may cause some people to take offense:
My show is called "Pope Benedict - Bond Villain." For some reason, all of the Catholic countries are the ones in trouble - Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy. And all of the countries doing the bailing out are the Protestant nations of Europe, like Germany, the UK, Scandanavia, Holland. The Greeks are neither Catholic nor Protestant -- they're Orthodox, though their system of accounting is not particularly Orthodox. And essentially what I'm asking: Is this a Vatican plot, to make us really poor, so that we all believe in God again. Headed by the Pope who is the perfect Bond villain. He has all the elements - the German accent, shadowy Nazi past, a priceless art collection, lives in a huge mansion, drives the Popemobile, and is the head of a secret organzation which is trying to take over the world. And not only that, but like every truly great Bond villain, the public name sounds completely innocent, Pope Benedict XVI, and a real name which is pure evil -- Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger [[said gutterally]]. You can almost hear Sean Connery saying, "You'll never get away with this, Ratzinger". -- Abie Philbin Bowman(BBC World Service) (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1006 "27-Oct-11 World View -- Financial crisis summit meeting of European leaders fails to agree on anything"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111026 26-Oct-11 World View -- Wednesday's much-hyped EU Finance Ministers' meeting is canceled =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111026.head 26-Oct-11 World View -- Wednesday's much-hyped EU Finance Ministers' meeting is canceled =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111026.keys Generational Dynamics, Eurozone, Greece, Silvio Berlusconi, Italy, Algeria, Arab Spring, Thailand, Yingluck Shinawatra, Bangkok, Russia, Security Council, Libya, MANPADS =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111026.loc ww2010.weblog.log1110 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111026.date 26-Oct-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111026.txt1 Thailand's PM Yingluck concedes that Bangkok will be flooded =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111026.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Wednesday's much-hyped EU Finance Ministers' meeting is canceled
"Jalil was saying that we're going to stick with our religion, even the parts that the West doesn't approve of. I think he brought the subject up because of the raped women in the country, because of the divorced women, because of the women who are widowed right now. And I think that he understands right now that the chance for them to get married [is small], and polygamy will give them the dignity and security from social stigma against rape. In parallel, at the same time, we need to cure the whole rape issue, and I think right now polygamy will go side by side in curing it. And I think polygamy is a worthy option right now for Libyan women who are widowed."The BBC interviewer, James Menendez, actually sputtered in confusion over hearing this, and asked her what she meant.
"Women who have been raped or widowed - polygamy will give them a bigger chance for them to be taken in by somebody who's already married - a husband that already has another wife. Rape isn't something that's easy, and I think [polygamy will] get more accepted, and I think also there are many men out there who are married who are honored to have women who gave up so much for the revolution and are willing to take in these women."I've always thought that it was man-bashing by feminists who extol the virtues of one woman marrying another woman, but then recoil in horror when one woman wants to marry another woman AND a man. Just one more area of misunderstanding between the Arabs and the West. (BBC World Service) =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece's government runs out of ink for tax bills" The government department in Greece that sends out tax bills and statements to citizens has run out of ink because the supplier hasn't been paid. The Finance Ministry is asking taxpayers to print out their own tax bills via the online system, and then pay them. The ministry hopes to sign a deal for more ink by the end of the year. <#stdurl http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_23/10/2011_411495 "Kathimerini"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1003 "25-Oct-11 World View -- Polygamy in Libya becomes an issue in the West"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111024 24-Oct-11 World View -- Sarkozy tells Cameron to 'shut up' in euro clash =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111024.head 24-Oct-11 World View -- Sarkozy tells Cameron to 'shut up' in euro clash =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111024.keys Generational Dynamics, John Kenneth Galbraith, Greece, Europe, Christine Lagarde, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Nicolas Sarkozy, France, Angela Merkel, Germany, David Cameron, Britain, Jean-Claude Juncker, Tony Blair, Jacques Cirac, Swiss People's Party, SVP, Switzerland, Libya, Mustafa Abdul-Jalil, National Transitional Council, Sharia Law, Muammar Gaddafi =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111024.loc ww2010.weblog.log1110 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111024.date 24-Oct-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111024.txt1 Libya's interim leader declares support for Sharia law =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111024.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * The European situation continues to worsen
"A common feature of all these earlier troubles [previous panics] was that having happened they were over. The worst was reasonably recognizable as such. The singular feature of the great crash of 1929 was that the worst continued to worsen. What looked one day like the end proved on the next day to have been only the beginning. Nothing could have been more ingeniously designed to maximize the suffering, and also to insure that as few as possible escaped the common misfortune." (p. 108)Shell-shocked European leaders are aware that they're facing imminent disaster, but they keep hoping that if they can only stall a few days or a few weeks longer, then things will improve. But the singular feature of Europe's problems is that the worst is continuing to worsen. As we've <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e111022 "reported,"#> A new bombshell hit the EU finance ministers on Friday, when they learned that Greece alone could swallow the eurozone's entire €440 billion bailout fund, leaving nothing for Italy, Spain or France. And on Saturday, Christine Lagarde, the new head of the International Monetary Foundation (IMF) announced that the IMF would no longer be willing to pick up a third of the total bill for rescuing Greece, a contribution worth €73 billion, unless Greece were forced to default, and investors were forced to take at least a 50% "haircut" -- meaning that European banks that had invested heavily in Greek bonds would have to write off 50% of their debt. This worsening situation is caused by generational changes, as I've described many times. I've used the analogy before that this is like a tsunami that was launched decades ago, and is now drowning Europe. No politician could have either caused or prevented this tsunami, nor the tsunami that's also headed for America, nor the one headed for China. The politicians are trying to pile sandbags on the beach, but the tsunami keeps getting higher and higher, pouring over the sandbags, ready to drown everyone. The EU finance ministers met all weekend without reaching any conclusions. That Greece will have to default is now a given, even though they'll get their next bailout payment in November. When Greece defaults, German banks will come out relatively OK, while French banks face disaster. That's why the Germans want each country to bail out its own banks, while the French want the European Central Bank (ECB) to bail out everyone's banks. The next meeting of EU finance ministers is Wednesday. No one knows whether they'll come up with some kind of agreement by then. But Generational Dynamics tells us that it doesn't make any difference. No matter what deal they come up with, it won't be enough, and the tsunami will overwhelm it. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/belgium/8843652/Eurozone-summit-despair-and-backbiting-in-the-corridors-of-power.html "Telegraph"#> and <#stdurl http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2011/1024/1224306388759.html "Irish Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Britain may hold referendum on leaving the European Union" Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron is facing a massive political rebellion as over 70 MPs in his own Conservative (Tory) party are threatening to vote in favor of holding a referendum on leaving the European Union. In a sign of the growing acrimony on the Tory benches, one senior party member accused William Hague, the Foreign Secretary, of "insulting MPs' intelligence" by claiming that such a vote would be damaging in a time of economic uncertainty. <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservatives-in-disarray-as-70-mps-threaten-revolt-over-eu-2375099.html "Independent"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Sarkozy tells Cameron to 'shut up' in euro clash" This reminds me of the good old days of 2005. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e050618 ""Acrimonious European Union summit ends in crisis""#>) In 2005, there was a very acrimonious EU summit meeting where French President Jacques Chirac was demanding that Britain receive less EU money and France receive more EU money. Furious EU President Jean-Claude Juncker shook his fist at British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Several months later, Britain caved in to Chirac's demands. Well, there they go again. French President Nicolas Sarkozy told British Prime Minister David Cameron to "shut up" on Sunday. "We are sick of you criticising us and telling us what to do. You say you hate the euro and now you want to interfere in our meetings." The particular issue that triggered the acrimony was Cameron's insistence that he be allowed to attend Wednesday's meeting of the eurozone finance ministers, even though Britain is not in the eurozone. They finally compromised by agreeing to allow Cameron to attend for the first hour. <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/sarkozy-tells-cameron-to-shut-up-in-euro-clash-2375098.html "Independent"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Anti-Immigrant party loses ground in Switzerland" <#inc ww2010.pic g071021.gif right "" "From 2007: Anti-immigration election poster, declared "racist" by opponents, depicts white sheep kicking a black sheep away from a Swiss flag, with the caption, "Establish your security.""#> For the first time in four years, Switzerland's major anti-immigrant party has lost ground. In elections on Sunday, support for the Swiss People's Party (SVP) fell by more than 2 points to 26.8%, instead of growing to more than 30% as party leaders had predicted. The party rose to fame in 2007 when it got 29% of the vote on an anti-immigrant campaign that the United Nations described as "racist." In 2009, the SVP shocked Europe by backing a referendum forbidding the building of minarets. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e091202 ""Switzerland shocks itself by passing a ban on minarets.""#>) Sunday's election indicates that, for the first time, the xenophobic fervor may be starting to retreat, as other issues, particularly the growing financial crisis, threaten to overwhelm Europe. <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/farright-party-loses-support-in-swiss-poll-2375073.html "Independent"#> and <#stdurl http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/politics/Fragmented_centre_holds_sway_over_right_and_left.html?cid=31415918 "SwissInfo"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Libya's interim leader declares support for Sharia law" <#inc ww2010.pic g111023b.jpg right "" "Mustafa Abdul-Jalil on Sunday (AP)"#> In an announcement that's sure to raise human rights concerns in Western countries, Mustafa Abdul-Jalil, the chairman of the National Transitional Council and de facto president of Libya announced:
"We, as an Islamic state, have adopted the Islamic Shariah as the main source of legislation. As such, any law that runs contrary to the Islamic principles of the Islamic Shariah is legally void."Islamic law, or Sharia law, is perceived extremely negatively in the West, even though most of the concerns are exaggerated. As a practical matter, the biggest consequence of Sharia law is that banks are not permitted to charge interest. "Interest creates disease and hatred among people," according to Jalil. However, Sharia law is practiced in some Gulf countries, which have pioneered the development of Sharia-compliant banks which charge fees rather than interest for loans, while they normally run alongside western-style banks. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8844819/Libyas-liberation-interim-ruler-unveils-more-radical-than-expected-plans-for-Islamic-law.html "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Colonel Gaddafi's will calls for his supporters to fight on" In his will, former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi made it clear that he had decided to die in Libya rather than flee, telling his supporters: "Let the free people of the world know that we could have bargained over and sold out our cause in return for a personal secure and stable life. We received many offers to this effect but we chose to be at the vanguard of the confrontation as a badge of duty and honour." Gaddafi asked to be buried, clothed as he died, with his body unwashed, in a graveyard in his home town of Sirte, not far from where he was killed as he fled the city on Thursday. He said, "I call on my supporters to continue the resistance, and fight any foreign aggressor against Libya, today, tomorrow and always." <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8844912/Col-Gaddafis-will-calls-on-followers-to-fight-on-and-remember-heroes.html "Telegraph"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1002 "24-Oct-11 World View -- Sarkozy tells Cameron to 'shut up' in euro clash"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111023 23-Oct-11 World View -- U.S. warns American citizens in Kenya of imminent terrorist threat =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111023.head 23-Oct-11 World View -- U.S. warns American citizens in Kenya of imminent terrorist threat =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111023.keys Generational Dynamics, Nairobi, Kenya, Somalia, India, Pakistan, China, Turkey, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Sultan bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Nayef, King Abdullah, Vladimir Putin, Russia =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111023.loc ww2010.weblog.log1110 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111023.date 23-Oct-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111023.txt1 Turkey's incursion into northern Iraq kills 49 Kurdish rebels =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111023.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * U.S. warns American citizens in Kenya of imminent terrorist threat
"This is to inform U.S. citizens residing in or visiting Kenya that the U.S. Embassy in Kenya has received credible information of an imminent threat of terrorist attacks directed at prominent Kenyan facilities and areas where foreigners are known to congregate, such as malls and night clubs."As we <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e111018 "reported"#> when Kenya announced the invasion last week, Al-Shabaab said that it would "strike at the heart of [Kenya's] interests." However, the U.S. announcement didn't specify who was threatening the attack. [A terrorist attack in Nairobi on August 7, 1998 killed about 200 people and left more than 1,000 injured after a bomb explosion near the then US embassy.] <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/2011/10/22/world/africa/kenya-us-warning/index.html "CNN"#> and <#stdurl http://www.nation.co.ke/News/US+embassy+warns+on+Kenya+attack/-/1056/1259986/-/hw6030/-/ "The Nation (Kenya)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Analysis: India being 'contained' by growing Chinese footprint in Pakistan" <#inc ww2010.pic india5.gif right "" "Indian subcontinent, highlighting Kashmir and Jammu"#> According to an Indian analysis, China's rapidly increasing footprint in Pakistan-governed Kashmir and in Afghanistan represents an increasing military danger to India. There are some 3000-4000 Chinese, including troops, in Pakistan-governed Kashmir, stationed near the Line of Control (LOC) that separates the Pakistani and Indian regions, building major infrastructure projects. Kashmir and Jammu (K&J) were the site of an extremely bloody genocidal war between Hindus and Muslims following Partition, the 1947 war that following the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent, creating the states of India and Pakistan. The region is still disputed, and in recent years, China has become firmly and unequivocally on the side of Pakistan, making it clear that any war in the region will be on two fronts for India. In addition, China has been aggressively bidding for large energy and infrastructure projects in northern Afghanistan, meaning that China will have a strong presence in Afghanistan as the Americans withdraw. At that time, the Islamist Mujahadeen terrorists will be diverted away from Afghanistan towards K&J. The analysis concludes that India must increase its own footprint in Afghanistan. Generational Dynamics predicts that India and Pakistan will be re-fighting the genocidal 1947 war. <#stdurl http://www.idsa.in/idsacomment/IncreasingChineseFootprintinIndiasNorthWest_msingh_211011 "Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses (IDSA)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey's incursion into northern Iraq kills 49 Kurdish rebels" Turkey's air and ground offensives are continuing on both sides of the border with Iraq. At least 49 Kurdish rebels have been killed in the past two days, according to Turkish military sources. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is calling for national unity in the fight against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) terrorists, but he's facing increasing political opposition for the military conflict, with political opponents charging him with using the military for political purposes, rather than negotiating. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Turkey-Says-49-Kurdish-Rebels-Dead-132379933.html "VOA"#> and <#stdurl http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=turkish-prime-minister-erdogan-eyes-united-front-against-pkk-2011-10-21 "Hurriyet (Ankara)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey's image is confusing to Tunisia and the Arab world" According to <#stdurl http://www.juridicas.unam.mx/wccl/en/curriculum/ibrahim_kaboglu.htm "Ibrahim Kaboglu,"#> a Turkish professor of constitutional law and human rights activist, Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is sending confusing signals to the Arab world, and generating opposition in Tunisia in particular. Erdogan is presenting Turkey to the Arab world as a model of coexistence between an Islamist government and a secular nation. As a result, he's distrusted by both Islamists and secularists in Arab countries. <#stdurl http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=contradictory-image-of-turkey-is-confusing-the-arab-world-2011-10-21 "Hurriyet"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Death of Saudi prince signals more conservative Islamist shift" <#inc ww2010.pic g111022c.jpg right "" "Prince Nayef bin Abdul Aziz al Saud (Reuters)"#> Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud died Saturday in a New York hospital, having been ill with cancer for some time. He was heir to the throne, meaning that he was next in line to replace his half-brother, King Abdullah. 87-year-old Abdullah himself had just returned to the palace from his third back surgery this year. Sultan's death leaves his brother Prince Nayef bin Abdul Aziz al Saud the likely successor to the king. In the past, Nayef has criticized some of King Abdullah's social reforms, and is thought to be more religiously conservative than Abdullah. However, he's also a pragmatist, and as king would be unlikely to risk social unrest by reversing too many reforms. <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/2011/10/22/world/meast/saudi-arabia-prince-dead/ "CNN"#> and <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15417221 "BBC"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia's defense industry beset by corrupt, predatory practices" In what might be called his presidential campaign speeches, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has promised that within a decade a three trillion ruble ($95.18 billion) modernization program will completely rearm the entire military as well as make Russia a paragon of global growth, science and innovation. However, when one looks at the real state of affairs in the defense industrial sector as well as overall state procurement it becomes clear that such promises are but another farcical echo of earlier Soviet invocations of the radiant future. As Putin himself observed, only the stage of placing of state orders is currently regulated at present, and even this is insufficiently regulated. Meanwhile, the number and volume of non-competitive (and both corrupt and predatory) practices are increasing while more and more contracts are concluded with a sole contractor. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=38557&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=27&cHash=a2103c768fd61cdfd1c7d465d95cce08 "Jamestown"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1001 "23-Oct-11 World View -- U.S. warns American citizens in Kenya of imminent terrorist threat"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111022 22-Oct-11 World View -- Surprise! Greece's economy is worse than expected =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111022.head 22-Oct-11 World View -- Surprise! Greece's economy is worse than expected =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111022.keys Generational Dynamics, occupy Wall Street, Douglas Schoen, Mahmoud Abbas, United Nations, Greece, Nato, Libya, National Transitional Council, NTC, Iraq =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111022.loc ww2010.weblog.log1110 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111022.date 22-Oct-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111022.txt1 Occupy Wall Street protesters very similar to Greece's protesters =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111022.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Occupy Wall Street protesters very similar to Greece's protesters
"A few hours ago I spoke with Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki. I reaffirmed that the United States keeps its commitments. He spoke of the determination of the Iraqi people to forge their own future. We are in full agreement about how to move forward. So today, I can report that, as promised, the rest of our troops in Iraq will come home by the end of the year. After nearly nine years, America’s war in Iraq will be over. Over the next two months, our troops in Iraq -- tens of thousands of them -- will pack up their gear and board convoys for the journey home. The last American soldier[s] will cross the border out of Iraq with their heads held high, proud of their success, and knowing that the American people stand united in our support for our troops. That is how America’s military efforts in Iraq will end."<#stdurl http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/10/21/remarks-president-ending-war-iraq "White House"#> The complete withdrawal of American troops from Iraq is raising controversy. The U.S. had hoped to leave several thousand troops behind in a non-combat role, in which they would train and advise Iraqi security forces, but the complete withdrawal may result in a dangerous power vacuum. According to security analyst Anthony Cordesman, "Now we’re going to have zero [soldiers], which means there won’t be forces to help maintain checkpoints between Kurds and Arabs. There are not going to be specialized forces to help the Iraqis deal with the kinds of terrorism and insurgent groups they have. We’re not going to have any clear contingency basing structure that will allow us to rapidly deploy if Iraq faced a threat from Iran." <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/usa/US-Withdrawal-Raises-Questions-of-a-Vacuum-in-Iraq-132358203.html "VOA"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1000 "22-Oct-11 World View -- Surprise! Greece's economy is worse than expected"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111021 21-Oct-11 World View -- St. Nicholas Greek Orthodox Church to be rebuilt at Ground Zero =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111021.head 21-Oct-11 World View -- St. Nicholas Greek Orthodox Church to be rebuilt at Ground Zero =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111021.keys Generational Dynamics, National Transitional Council, NTC, Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, Tuareg tribe, Basque, ETA, Gerry Adams, Sinn Fein, IRA, Nicolas Sarkozy, Angela Merkel, France, Germany, Greece, Communists, anarchists, St. Nicholas Greek Orthodox Church, Ground Zero, Hillary Clinton, Pakistan, Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111021.loc ww2010.weblog.log1110 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111021.date 21-Oct-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111021.txt1 Mission Accomplished! as Muammar Gaddafi is killed in Libya =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111021.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Mission Accomplished! as Muammar Gaddafi is killed in Libya
"I think they're gonna support the euro. They're GONNA support the euro. [Question: Are they going to announce how they're going to do that?] Well, if they start doing that, then the market's going to correct itself, and that's going to cause some problems. And that's why I honestly believe they're waiting until pretty much the last minute, because they DO have some kind of solution. I'm SURE they have SOME KIND of solution. But they don't wanna mention it because it has to be a HUGE number, and that will cause EXTREME volatility in the markets, and right now, we don't really need that volatility. ... The truth is that 2 trillion, and probably more, will probably have to be invested."What mere words don't convey is the sense of panic in his voice. "They DO have some kind of solution. I'm SURE they have SOME KIND of solution." His voice was conveying desperation. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "A sense of panic among politicians in Europe"
"The situation has been deteriorating dramatically, after Moody's put the French credit rating on a review. European officials are now warning that the eurozone may be in danger of unraveling unless the Sunday's summit was able to take a big decision. German politicians continued yesterday to lower expectations, while the British papers seem to be convinced that the Big Bazooka may indeed come out on Sunday."<#stdurl http://www.eurointelligence.com/ "Euro Intelligence"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Sarkozy: 'Our destiny will be decided in the next 10 days'" France's president Nicolas Sarkozy reportedly said the following (translation):
"The choice that France made for Europe, against the backdrop of Franco-German reconciliation, is a choice that no one should question. France will not stand alone. Our continent, I should say the European continent, is the continent that has experienced the two most barbaric wars in the world. It was not the Middle Ages, it was the 20th century, on two occasions. We are in the early 21st century. I'll never let this destroy European heritage that has been transmitted by the wisdom of our elders, who, with war as a foundation, have managed to build reconciliation. Europe is the most beautiful construction in the service of peace ever invented by human beings. There is no place in the world where they have succeeded in creating an alliance so integrated among countries that are so different, in order to bring peace. I will not let this heritage be destroyed. ... If you let the euro be destroyed, you take the risk of destroying Europe. Those who would destroy the euro will bear the responsibility for the resurgence of war on our continent."The unstated subtext of Sarkozy's statement is this: The Germans attacked France in two barbaric wars in the 20th century, and if the German taxpayer refuses now to bail out France and the rest of Europe, then Germany will be responsible for another barbaric war. <#stdurl http://elysee.blog.lemonde.fr/2011/10/18/sarkozy-se-pose-en-pere-de-leurope/ "Le Monde"#> (Paragraph updated - 20-Oct) =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "€440 billion will become €2 trillion through 'leverage'" According to expectations inferred from various news reports, the meeting on Sunday, October 23, will announce the following:
"With the consent of the Government of Uganda, and as notified to Congress, the United States has sent a small number of U.S. military advisors to the region to assist the forces that are pursuing the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) and seeking to bring top commanders to justice. These advisors will work with our regional partners and the African Union in the field to strengthen information-sharing, enhance coordination and planning, and improve the overall effectiveness of military operations and the protection of civilians. These advisors will not engage LRA forces unless necessary for self-defense."According to a statement by President Barack Obama, "I believe that deploying these U.S. armed forces furthers U.S. national security interests and foreign policy, and will be a significant contribution toward counter-LRA efforts in central Africa." <#stdurl http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2011/10/175522.htm "State Dept."#> and <#stdurl http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=65664 "Dept. of Defense"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "LRA head Joseph Kony seeks theocratic state based on Ten Commandments" Joesph Kony, head of the LRA, is accused of war crimes and is wanted by the International Criminal Court. Kony is a self-styled mystic and religious prophet, claims to be fighting on orders from God to establish theocratic rule based on the Biblical Ten Commandments. LRA terrorists move in very small groups that defy organized forces looking for them. These small groups attack civilian villages, torturing, mutilating and killing men, raping women, and kidnapping children as sex slaves. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g_k7HxM6K32WKaWD6GNF1QQf9NNw?docId=CNG.19cbae00c31007ab44469985e8a939e2.2f1 "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Left-wing protests continue to grow on Wall Street and in Europe" Fourteen "Occupy Wall Street" protesters in lower Manhattan were arrested on Friday, for performing such acts as overturning trash baskets or hurling bottles. A much larger confrontation was threatened over plans to close Zuccotti Park for cleaning. Zucotti was the site of many of the demonstrations against the financial industry, and there were concerns over violence if the police went ahead with plans to close the park. However, the confrontation was averted when the park closing was postponed. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-14/wall-street-protesters-arrested-in-lower-manhattan-police-say.html "Bloomberg"#> "Occupy Wall Street" protesters are swelling and clashing with police across the country. Scores of protesters were arrested in Denver, Seattle, San Diego and New York, while similar demonstrations were scheduled to take place in Washington, Orlando and Atlanta. <#stdurl http://www.cnn.com/2011/10/14/us/occupy-wall-street/index.html "CNN"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "All forms of public transport in Athens paralyzed by strikes" Union leaders were ratcheting up their action on Friday, in a bid to overturn draft legislation that implements further cuts to wages and pensions, as required by the European Union for further bailouts. (The reasoning is: Why suffer austerity programs, if the EU is going to supply the bailout money anyway?) There were no services by taxi drivers, or on the Athens metro, tram, city buses, trolley buses and the electric railway. Larger strikes are planned for next week. <#stdurl http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_13/10/2011_410798 "Kathimerini"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Debate over 'Leftist Terrorism' erupts in Germany" So far, authorities have found at least 17 incendiary devices near German rail facilities in and around Berlin this week. They were planted next to train tracks and near signalling equipment. Two have gone off. Though no injuries have yet been reported, the discoveries have resulted in significant train delays and several cancellations. Many officials are concerned that the country is seeing the beginnings of a wave of leftist terror. The fear is a renaissance of something like the Red Army Faction, the terror group which perpetrated dozens of killings in Germany over three decades starting in the early 1970s. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,791715,00.html "Spiegel"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Wall Street protests spread to London" More than 13,700 people have expressed their support on Facebook for a Saturday protest in London's financial district, demonstrating against "corporate greed." One protester said that they were likely to protest "outside selected corporations' headquarters as well as demonstrating in front of shops; everything is on the table." <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/not-only-in-america-wall-street-protests-are-coming-to-london-2370908.html "Independent (London)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Distrust of Egypt's interim military government grows" The distrust between pro-democracy activists in Egypt and the governing Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) has deepened after last weekends bloody clash between Coptic Christian protesters and the military. On Friday, hundreds of protesters marched from Egypt's pre-eminent mosque to a central Cairo cathedral in a show of Muslim-Christian unity, chanting slogans against the country's interim military rulers. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5ix6eZXJnQ-mB5W4eau1N3foTSA3w?docId=a156db3f5ddf42e88e2749dbe073744e "AP"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=987 "15-Oct-11 News -- Iran's assassination plot goal: Armed clash with U.S."#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111014 14-Oct-11 World View -- Obama accuses Iran of 'dangerous and reckless behavior' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111014.head 14-Oct-11 World View -- Obama accuses Iran of 'dangerous and reckless behavior' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111014.keys Generational Dynamics, Iran, Manssor Arbabsiar, Adel A. al-Jubeir, Quds Force, Slovakia, EFSF, Greece, bailout, Burma, India, Thein Sein, Manmohan Singh, King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck, Jetsun Pema, Bhutan =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111014.loc ww2010.weblog.log1110 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111014.date 14-Oct-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111014.txt1 Burma's ties with India deepen, as ties with China weaken =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111014.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * World opinion split on Iran's alleged assassination plot
"China and Myanmar on Monday agreed to properly settle matters related a suspended joint hydropower project in Myanmar, and both sides pledged to increase cooperation and work toward bringing mutual benefits to the two nations. ... The two foreign ministers also exchanged views on bilateral relations and other issues of common concern, with both voicing commitments to push forward the bilateral comprehensive and strategic partnership in a bid to achieve joint development, said the press release."What's remarkable about this news story is that it says absolutely nothing (it reminds me of Merkel and Sarkozy making a big announcement on Sunday that they had a plan to have a plan), and yet the article is extremely deferential to Burma. China seems afraid that they're losing Burma as an ally. <#stdurl http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-10/10/c_131183217.htm "Xinhua"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Saudi Arabia says that Iran must 'pay the price' for assassination attempt" Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran have been deteriorating anyway, especially after the Saudis' support for Bahrain's government in cracking down on Shia protesters, earlier this year. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110315 ""15-Mar-11 News -- Bahrain uprising becomes explosive as Saudi troops arrive""#>) Now, the alleged scheme to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the U.S. has infuriated the Saudis. Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former ambassador to Washington, said Wednesday the evidence was "overwhelming" and "clearly shows official Iranian responsibility" for the plot. He indicated that Iran will 'pay the price' for its actions. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Saudi-Arabia-Iran-Must-Pay-Price-for-Plot-131587328.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China's Mandarin language continues to lose popularity in favor of English" Education officials in China are becoming increasingly worried about the large-scale weakening of the language abilities of native speakers of Mandarin. Although China's education system teaches Mandarin for 12 years from primary school to high school, more than 30% of college students fail tests that evaluate language abilities. There are two major factors that explain the withering popularity of Mandarin. First, more and more students have rushed to English traning classes, because better English can mean a higher salary. And second, the use of computers makes it unnecessary for students to learn how to write Chinese characters. According to one educator, every Chinese character is a light, but now many have dimmed. "We need to re-light them to provide us a guiding light." <#stdurl http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-09/26/c_131161007.htm "Xinhua"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=984 "13-Oct-11 World View -- Saudi Arabia says that Iran must 'pay the price' for assassination attempt"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111012 12-Oct-11 World View -- Criticism of Egypt's armed forces intensifies after 'Black Sunday' Copt massacre =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111012.head 12-Oct-11 World View -- Criticism of Egypt's armed forces intensifies after 'Black Sunday' Copt massacre =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111012.keys Generational Dynamics, Slovakia, Iveta Radicova, European Financial Stability Facility, EFSF, Greece, Troika, bailout, Gilad Shalit, Hamas, Israel, Egypt, SCAF, Maspero, Coptic Christians, Hosni Mubarak, Adel A. al-Jubeir, Saudi Arabia, Iran =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111012.loc ww2010.weblog.log1110 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111012.date 12-Oct-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111012.txt1 European 'troika' approves Greece's next bailout payment =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111012.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Slovakia parliament rejects enlarged bailout fund
"This [incident] reflects an unprecedented failure in running the country during the transitional period. Since 11 February, the country has been going from worse to worst. If the military stays in power for much longer, the country might head towards more violence, and social peace will be in jeopardy."Another analyst added, "The SCAF's performance on the sectarian portfolio has been really bad since the revolution. They are dealing with the matter the same way Mubarak was. What new regime are we speaking of?" <#stdurl http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/503818 "Al-Masry Al-Youm (Cairo)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Egypt's deputy prime minister resigns in protest" Hazem El-Beblawi, who serves in Egypt's SCAF government as both finance minister and deputy foreign minister, handed in his resignation on Tuesday in protest over the government's handling of the Sunday massacre, saying that "he can't work like this." Sunday's bloodshed was seen by many activists as a turning point in Egypt's already chaotic transition: the deadliest use of force against protesters by the military, which has touted itself as the "protector of the revolution." Criticism has been mounting that the military, which took power after Mubarak's ouster, has adopted the same tactics as the former regime and has been slow to bring real change. <#stdurl http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/article/Anger-grows-at-Egypt-military-in-Christian-deaths-2212810.php "Associated Press"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Egypt's SCAF progressively losing its support" Long before Sunday's incident, it's been clear that Egypt's SCAF government has been losing support of the Egyptian people who brought about the ouster of Hosni Mubarak. The military establishment has continued in the way of the old regime by reviving the Emergency Law, trying civilians in military courts, and delaying handing over the rule to civilian authority. According to one Egyptian analyst:
"We must remember that the Egyptian revolution did not [take] the rule into its hands and is therefore not responsible for what is happening. The only one responsible is the SCAF, which is standing in for both the president of the republic and the parliament during the interim period. The Egyptians rose up against Hosni Mubarak and toppled him, and when the army [joined the protesters] on the streets, the rebels celebrated their victory and returned home, believing that the SCAF would represent the revolution and realize all of its goals. This was a serious misreading [of reality]. "The military is part of the old regime and was never part of the revolution. We were wrong not to realize that the great national role of the Egyptian military is one thing and the political role of the SCAF is another. The SCAF was not revolutionary and did not oppose [the methods of] the Mubarak regime, not for a single day. It was simply a part of [this regime]."<#stdurl http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5715.htm "Memri"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.S. accuses Iran of plot to kill Saudi ambassador" <#inc ww2010.pic g111011d.jpg right "" "Adal A. al-Jubeif"#> U.S. officials on Tuesday accused Iran's government of plotting to assassinate Adel A. al-Jubeir, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United States, and a close adviser to Saudi's King Abdullah. The Justice Department charged two Iranians — one of them a U.S. citizen — accusing them of orchestrating an elaborate murder-for-hire plot that targeted al-Jubeir. The Iranians planned to employ Mexican drug traffickers to kill Jubeir with a bomb as he ate at a Washington restaurant, U.S. officials said. <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iranian-charged-in-terror-plot/2011/10/11/gIQAiaYxcL_story.html "Washington Post"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=983 "12-Oct-11 World View -- Criticism of Egypt's armed forces intensifies after 'Black Sunday' Copt massacre"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111011 11-Oct-11 World View -- Egypt in shock over bloody massacre of Coptic Christians =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111011.head 11-Oct-11 World View -- Egypt in shock over bloody massacre of Coptic Christians =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111011.keys Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Coptic Christians, Nicolas Sarkozy, Angela Merkel, Greece, default, Maspero, Arab League, Amr Moussa, Homs, Syria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111011.loc ww2010.weblog.log1110 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111011.date 11-Oct-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111011.txt1 Report: Merkel has concluded that Greek default is inevitable =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111011.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Wall Street stocks soar 3% on empty promise by Sarkozy/Merkel
"FT Deutschland leads with the story this morning - sourced to several German government officials - that Angela Merkel is pushing for an involuntary Greek default. The paper writes that the German government has now concluded that Greece was insolvent and that it would have to default on its debt. Germany was now trying to persuade its European partners to accept the inevitable, but was still running into opposition from the European Commission, the ECB, and several member states, including France."The report concludes by quoting European Commission president José Manuel Barroso warning that a Greek default would lead to disaster. <#stdurl http://www.eurotrib.com/comments/2011/10/9/9272/71489/55 "EuroIntelligence"#> Merkel is risking a "snowball effect," according to another analyst, who says a "Pandora's box" would be opened. "It would be a complete disaster, a signal that sovereign debt is not safe. Investors would pull their deposits out of Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy and set off bank runs across Europe. The French are against doing this and so is the European Central Bank. They know banks need more time to adjust. We don't think Europe will pull the trigger." <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8819195/German-push-for-Greek-default-risks-EMU-wide-snowball.html "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "With elections approaching, Egypt's government in crisis over Sunday's violence" Sunday's violence, the bloodiest since the protests began in January, resulting in the deaths of 24 Coptic Christians, is igniting fears of widespread sectarian violence across the country. Egyptian presidential candidate and former Arab League president Amr Moussa warned that Sunday's event was a "big catastrophe" that is not merely the latest episode of sectarian tension but the beginning of a faceoff between Egypt’s Muslims and Christians, not only in Cairo but all over Egypt. "This cannot be repeated; we are at the door of a huge confrontation, not just in Maspero but all over Egypt." <#stdurl http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/23785/Egypt/Politics-/Egypt-political-parties-condemn-Maspero-attacks,-b.aspx "Al-Ahram"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Egypt's state television admits to making up news that incited violence" Maspero, Egypt’s state television, announced on Monday that there are no deaths among the military forces after previously reporting that there were during the Sunday clashes. They falsely reported that the Coptic protesters attacked the military forces with weapons, resulting in the deaths of three soldiers, and they called on the Egyptian people to take to the streets to protect the armed forces. The news agitated many Muslims who took up arms and clashed with protesters, both Muslims and Coptic Christians. <#stdurl http://bikyamasr.com/45280/egypt-state-television-admits-to-making-up-news-over-soldiers-deaths/ "Bikya Masr (Cairo)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Youtube video shows army tanks running over Christians" The video is provided by al-Arabia, shows armored vehicles running over people, killing and injuring scores of them: =// http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBxMG1e8oLw
[youtube vBxMG1e8oLw nolink]
<#stdurl http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBxMG1e8oLw "Youtube"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Semblance of a civil war in Homs, Syria" The days of Syrian regime forces massacring peaceful, unarmed protesters appear to be over in Homs, the third largest city in Syria. Armed civilians, along with military defectors, are now battling Bashar al-Assad's regime security forces in formerly peaceful neighborhoods. Perhaps the most dramatic facet of the struggle is a series of assassinations this past week that have left nearly a dozen professors, doctors and informers dead in a paroxysm of violence. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Syria is in a generation Awakening era, and so a crisis civil war is impossible. If a civil war begins, it will fizzle quickly. <#stdurl http://www.smh.com.au/world/civil-war-erupts-in-syrian-city-20111002-1l3ry.html "NY Times"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=982 "11-Oct-11 World View -- Egypt in shock over bloody massacre of Coptic Christians"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111010 10-Oct-11 World View -- Sarkozy/Merkel announce non-plan, as Dexia bank breaks up =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111010.head 10-Oct-11 World View -- Sarkozy/Merkel announce non-plan, as Dexia bank breaks up =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111010.keys Generational Dynamics, Coptic Christians, Egypt, Nicolas Sarkozy, Angela Merkel, Carla Bruni, John Mauldin, Belgium, France, Germany, Dexia Bank, Turkey, Ahmet Davutoglu, Libya, China's 1911 revolution, Xinhai Revolution, Qing Dynasty, Richard Nixon, Mao Zedong, Taiping Rebellion, Communist Revolution =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111010.loc ww2010.weblog.log1110 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111010.date 10-Oct-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111010.txt1 23 dead in clash between Coptic Christians and Egyptian security =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111010.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * 23 dead in clash between Coptic Christians and Egyptian security"The bellicose forces at home and abroad kicked up extremely reckless rackets of military confrontation with the DPRK [North Korea] in south Korea in September. This is a military provocation to escalate military tension on the Korean Peninsula and an undisguised declaration of intention to do harm to the DPRK by force of arms. Never before has there been such madcap DPRK-targeted saber-rattling including war confabs, war exercises and arms buildup as what happened last month. Their saber-rattling was prompted by a sinister intention to derail the process for dialogue and peace on the Korean Peninsula. Their reckless war moves are marring the atmosphere of dialogue and putting peace and stability on the peninsula at great peril. It admits of no argument that the U.S. and the south Korean authorities are chiefly to blame for confrontation hardly defused despite the DPRK's patient efforts for improving the inter-Korean relations and the wishes of the international community for dialogue."<#stdurl http://www.kcna.co.jp/item/2011/201110/news07/20111007-08ee.html "KCNA (North Korea)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Japan tries to resolve issue of North Korean abductions of Japanese" Japan's new Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda is expressing his intention to visit North Korea to help resolve the long-standing issue of dozens of Japanese citizens abducted by North Korean agents in the 1970s-80s. Some were forced to teach Japanese language and culture to spies. Rights groups say some of the older abductees were apparently killed so that their identities could be adopted by North Korean agents. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/Japan-Prime-Minister-Vows-to-Resolve-Decades-Old-Abductions-by-North-Korean-Agents-131389633.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Yemen's president Saleh again says that he'll step down" <#inc ww2010.pic g111008c.jpg right "" "Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh on Saturday"#> Repeating a pattern he's followed several times before, Yemen's president Ali Abdullah Saleh said Saturday that he would step down within a few days, acceding to the demands of opposition activists who began protesting on January 22 of this year. The offer to step down is thought to be a ploy motivated by the award on Friday of the Nobel Peace Prize to Tawakul Karmal, a Yemeni activist leading demonstrations against Saleh. <#stdurl http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/world_now/2011/10/yemen-president-saleh.html "LA Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Arab and Christian graves vandalized in Arab section of Jaffa, Israel" As we recently <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e111008 "reported,"#> Israel's security agency Shin Bet has recorded a growing number of terrorist attacks in the last year by Jewish settlers and activists. Less than a week after the arson of a mosque in northern Israel, dozens of Christian and Muslim graves were vandalized in an Arab section of the Israeli city of Jaffa on Thursday or Friday. Among the words spray-painted in Hebrew on the gravestones were "price tag" and "death to all Arabs." The phrase "price tag" is frequently used by radical Israeli settlers to denote revenge attacks against Palestinians in response to moves by the Israeli government to evacuate illegal West Bank outposts, or as retribution for attacks by Palestinians. <#stdurl http://www.cnn.com/2011/10/08/world/meast/israel-graves-vandalized/ "CNN"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iraq sides with Syria and Iran against U.S. policy" More than six months after the start of the Syrian uprising, Iraq is offering key moral and financial support to the country’s embattled president, Bashar al-Assad, undermining a central U.S. policy objective. This is part of a trend that Iraq is siding with Iran as the Sunni Arab nations, led by Saudi Arabia, become more closely aligned with Pakistan and China. <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iraq-siding-with-iran-sends-lifeline-to-assad/2011/10/06/gIQAFEAIWL_story.html "Washington Post"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=979 "9-Oct-11 World View -- North Korea threatens South Korea with military action"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111008 8-Oct-11 World View -- Paramilitaries may be joining drug wars in Mexico =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111008.head 8-Oct-11 World View -- Paramilitaries may be joining drug wars in Mexico =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111008.keys Generational Dynamics, Alan Greenspan, econometric models, Peter Orszag, Fitch Ratings, Moody's Investor Services, dowgrades, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Dexia bank, Mexico, Veracruz, Mexican Revolution, Afghanistan, Taliban, Hamid Karzai, Pakistan, Israel, Shin Bet, IDF =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111008.loc ww2010.weblog.log1110 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111008.date 8-Oct-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111008.txt1 Greenspan: All econometric models have failed =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111008.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Alan Greenspan: All econometric models have failed
"All the econometric models failed in 2008 - across the board. And the question is, would they have caught it if they had had more data. I will submit to you, given the existing econometric structure, you could fit the 2008 data, 2009, 2010, and you still wouldn't forecast it. The crucial question is - there are many missing independent variables in these models."This is exactly the point that I've been making for years -- and not just since 2008. Macroeconomics models are completely static in time, and economists assume that the same macroeconomics model that worked in the 70s and 80s also work today, an assumption which is completely absurd on its face. As I've pointed out many times, economists have been consistently wrong about everything, at least since 1995. They didn't predict and can't explain the 1990s tech bubble, the real estate and credit bubbles, the financial crisis since 2007, where we are today, and what's coming next year. Generational Dynamics is to macroeconomics as macroeconomics is to microeconomics. Macroeconomics models aggregate microeconomics models over the entire population, and Generational Dynamics models aggregate macroeconomic models over time. Economist Peter Orszag appeared on CNBC at the same time, and said, "Most of the major econometric models -- the administration, the Fed, the CBO -- missed this because they were based on a time period that didn't have this kind of experience in it." That's exactly right. If you want to use econometric models to predict what's happening today, then you have to use data from the 1930s. Nothing since then is relevant. (CNBC) =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Italy and Spain debt downgraded, Belgium is next" Fitch Ratings service downgraded the credit ratings of bonds issued by Italy and Spain early Friday, and said its long-term outlook for both countries was negative. Fitch based its decision on the growing debt crisis in Europe and deteriorating prospects for getting deficits under control. Later in the day, Moody's Investors Service put Belgium on notice for a possible downgrade, citing the uncertainty of the costs for rescuing Dexia bank. (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e111004 ""4-Oct-11 World View -- Belgium's Dexia bank may be near collapse""#>) On Friday, Moody's also downgraded a dozen British and nine Portuguese banks. Each day, Europe is closer to the edge of the cliff. <#stdurl http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2011/10/07/europe-debt-crisis-banks.html "Canadian Broadcasting (CBC)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Paramilitaries may be joining drug wars in Mexico" Evidence is growing that people with military training are perpetrating some of the most gruesome drug cartel violence in Mexico, leading to concern that Mexico's government no longer has control of the armed forces. The latest atrocity was the discover of 32 bodies scattered in houses in the port city of Veracruz this week, the latest sign that Mexico's drug-fueled violence is entering a new phase in which murky paramilitary-style squads are carrying out mass exterminations. Two weeks ago, gunmen dumped 35 semi-nude, mutilated bodies along a freeway underpass in Veracruz in broad daylight. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Mexico is headed for a new war, refighting the Mexican Revolution of the 1910s along the fault line separating the people of European ancestry versus the indigenous peoples ("Amerindians") of Mexico -- the Mayans in the south and the Aztecs and Commancheros in the north. This war is expected to spread into the southwestern United States. <#stdurl http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/10/07/2443792/paramilitaries-may-have-entered.html "Miami Herald"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Karzai: Taliban can't move a finger without Pakistan" <#inc ww2010.pic g111007c.jpg right "" "Hamid Karzai on Friday, speaking to the BBC"#> The already inflamed relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan became more tense on Friday when Afghanistan's president, in an interview on the tenth anniversary of the start of the Afghan war, blamed the Taliban insurgency squarely on Pakistan:
"On the overall policy of Pakistan toward Afghanistan and towards the Taliban, definitely, the Taliban will not be able to move a finger without Pakistani support. The fact is the Taliban were and are stationed, in terms of their political headquarters and operational headquarters, in Pakistan. We all know that. The Pakistanis know that. We know that. We're not saying this in a manner of accusation and reprimand. We are saying this in a manner of a statement intended towards a solution of the problem."Pakistan maintains it cut off ties to the Taliban and other militants following the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-15213999 "BBC"#> and <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5i5abexEQMBjwdsVLW8Suzw3FLkxg?docId=c767f7f354944d5a8ba202597c7592ca "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israeli Security: Violence by Jewish settlers and activists is growing" A violent attack on a mosque in Galilee, apparently carried out by settlers and right-wing Jewish activists -- is the latest sign that Jewish terrorism is increasing, according to Shin Bet, Israel's Security Agency. Shin Bet has recorded a growing number of these attacks, several dozen in the past year, including attacks like the one on Sunday against mosques, the uprooting of olive trees, the puncturing of tires on military vehicles, the harassment of left-wing activists, IDF officers and Shin Bet officials and others. The fear within the Shin Bet and the IDF is these attacks will continue to increase as the Palestinians move forward with their unilateral bid for statehood at the United Nations, and if large-scale demonstrations erupt in Palestinian towns. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/NationalNews/Article.aspx?id=240433 "Jerusalem Post"#> and <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/dozens-of-settlers-surround-idf-patrol-in-west-bank-and-assault-soldiers-1.388594 "Haaretz"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=977 "8-Oct-11 World View -- Paramilitaries may be joining drug wars in Mexico"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111007 7-Oct-11 World View -- Left-wing and anarchist protests increase in Europe and America =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111007.head 7-Oct-11 World View -- Left-wing and anarchist protests increase in Europe and America =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111007.keys Generational Dynamics, left-wing protests, Athens, New York, Occupy Wall Street, Richard Trumka, AFL-CIO, James Hoffa, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Mahmoud Abbas, Council of Europe, United Nations, China, tariffs =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111007.loc ww2010.weblog.log1110 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111007.date 7-Oct-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111007.txt1 Senior US officials meet with Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111007.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Left-wing and anarchist protests increase in Europe and America
"This is to strengthen Afghanistan, this is to strengthen a brother of Pakistan. To train our police for us, to train our army for us, to train thousands of Afghan youth who are right now sitting in India, and if Pakistan and other neighbors of us want to offer the same what we have taken, we would be delighted to take it, so let us be emphatic here, that neither India nor Afghanistan intends this to be beyond the two countries. ... In all sincerity, desirous of results, we will continue to work with our brothers in Pakistan."However, Pakistan editorialists saw the situation differently:
"The accord means some of the worst fears of at least some elements in Pakistan have now changed into reality. The nexus that has been developing for some years between Kabul and New Delhi has already caused a great deal of trepidation, particularly in military circles, where the thinking runs along a single track: control over Kabul and the events that take place there is vital to Pakistan’s strategic assets. The notion of an ‘enemy’ country gaining charge there is difficult to stomach, and in the lexicon of the military, this essentially means that Pakistan is flanked on either side by nations who are not allies. The idea that “my enemies’ friend is my enemy” runs strong. And of course the current state of relations between Pakistan and the US adds a further dimension of angst to the situation."Historically, Hindus have been allied with Shia Muslims in wars against Sunni Muslims, and this is the current trend in the region. In the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, it's expected that Pakistan will be allied with the Taliban (Pashtuns) in southern Afghanistan, and India will be allied with Iran and with the Hazaris and other Shia Muslims in northern Afghanistan. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/Karzai-Reassures-Pakistan-on-India-Deal-131166228.html "VOA"#> and <#stdurl http://tribune.com.pk/story/267406/ties-between-kabul-and-new-delhi/ "Express Tribune (Karachi)"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=975 "6-Oct-11 World View -- Turkey prepares to invade Iraq, targeting PKK Kurds"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111005 5-Oct-11 World View -- Euro / Greek financial crisis heads for dénouement =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111005.head 5-Oct-11 World View -- Euro / Greek financial crisis heads for dénouement =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111005.keys Generational Dynamics, euro, Greece, private sector involvement, Belgium, Dexia bank, France, Germany, haircut, Evangelos Venizelos, Italy, Moody's, Syria, Susan Rice, Russia, China, United Nations, Security Council, Libya, Israel, Palestinians, Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev, Amanda Knox =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111005.loc ww2010.weblog.log1110 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111005.date 5-Oct-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111005.txt1 Italy government bonds downgraded by Moody's =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111005.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Euro / Greek financial crisis heads for dénouement
"The United States is outraged that this council has utterly failed to address an urgent moral challenge and a growing threat to regional peace and security. Today two members have vetoed a vastly watered down text that doesn't even mention sanctions. Let me be clear: the United States believes it is past time that this council assumed its responsibilities and imposed tough targeted sanctions and an arms embargo on the Assad regime."Russia and China are known to be furious that the West far exceeded its mandate in Libya after the Security Council approved, with abstentions by Russia and China, a humanitarian effort to protect civilians. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5ieN2Hye9_WGit8Bb0yzlkbsPoe_w?docId=CNG.206b7e3a2746fca52d7eb492b168be3f.5a1 "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Palestinians in Israeli jails stage growing hunger strike" Some 500 Palestinian prisoners in Iraeli jails have joined a hunger strike to protest worsening prison conditions. Thousands of Palestinians stage rallies in both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank showing solidarity with prisoners. The strike was called after prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu toughened restrictions on Palestinian prisoners as part of an effort to force Hamas to free kidnapped IDF soldier Gilad Schalit. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=240420 "Jerusalem Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Putin's plans to return to Russia's presidency raising questions" Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's announcement that we recently <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110925 "reported"#> to the effect that he would run for President in 2012, replacing Dmitry Medvedev, has raised constitutional questions. Russia's constitution prohibits anyone from becoming president for more than two consecutive terms, and that's the reason why Putin could not run for president in 2008. Putin's announcement appears to confirm that Medvedev was just a "placeholder" for Putin, so that Putin could stay in power for 16 or more years, violating the spirit, if not the letter, of the Russian constitution. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38483&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=c7dc467e7a95a815cf11dd3c742d2d16 "Jamestown"#> and <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,789767,00.html "Spiegel"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Money flies out of Russia faster than predicted" Russia's central bank reported on Tuesday $18.7 billion in capital outflows in the third quarter, on top of $30.6 billion that had left Russia between January and June. These figures were far greater than had been predicted. Government officials have blamed the capital flight on a fragile business climate in which investors complain of red tape and the inability to defend their rights in court. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5j-oKPxo2DROUZ-T_F-ZsgAfCfPCw?docId=CNG.4a0cf4ff47cb1ef3bc8e8d71b20ff1a9.2b1 "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Amanda Knox ... errrrrrr ... something something something" <#inc ww2010.pic g111004c.jpg right "" "Amanda Knox"#> This is the most important international news story in the world today, more important than the European debt crisis, more important than Libya, more important than the Mideast, more important than anything. Since the Amanda Knox story is so important, I'm doing this item on Amanda Knox, so that all of my readers can be well informed about everything important that's going on in the world. Now you know. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iuvUP-k9XVt9YfxN2yR1TcNhsuzg?docId=53a09011d4654fb0bf97187c92f24aed "AP"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=974 "5-Oct-11 World View -- Euro / Greek financial crisis heads for dénouement"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111004 4-Oct-11 World View -- Belgium's Dexia bank may be near collapse =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111004.head 4-Oct-11 World View -- Belgium's Dexia bank may be near collapse =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111004.keys Generational Dynamics, Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Juncker, Greece, Belgium, Dexia bank, Olli Rehn, George Papandreou, France, Sirte, Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, Palestinian Authority, Victoria Nuland, Israel, United Nations, China, tariff, Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, Japan, Germany =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111004.loc ww2010.weblog.log1110 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111004.date 4-Oct-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111004.txt1 Administration lobbies Congress to restore Palestinian aid =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111004.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Euro finance ministers signal that Greece will get its money anyway
"We had no one advocating a default for Greece. Everything will be done to avoid that and it will be avoided. Nobody was advocating an exit of Greece from the euro area. I have to firmly deny all these rumors that Greece could decide to leave the euro area and I have to firmly deny any rumors of a Greek default."When asked what Greece has to do, after failing to meet previous targets, EU economic affairs commissioner Olli Rehn said,
"There has been a slippage this year. ... What is essential is that Greece will have to meet or exceed its target in 2012 with regards to its fiscal deficit, and it must improve its track record in 2011."All the signs point to another round of "kicking the can down the road." <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/03/eurozone-eurogroup-idUSL5E7L31PE20111003 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece's Papandreou angrily reject's demands to reduce public salaries" Greece's Prime Minister George Papandreou reacted angrily to the suggestion, offered by the "troika" (European Commission, European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund) inspectors that Greek law be changed to allow employers to to bypass union contracts and allow lower salaries. "Collective labor contracts apply. We are not, nor do we have any intention of becoming, India or Bangladesh," said Papandreou. <#stdurl http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_03/10/2011_409248 "Kathimerini"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Belgium's Dexia bank may be near collapse" Belgium's Dexia SA bank may be broken up, the first major bank casualty of Greece's debt crisis. The bank lost €4.03 billion in the second quarter, the largest loss in its history, after it wrote down its holdings of Greece's debt. France and Belgium bailed out Dexia in 2008, and apparently only a new bailout will save Dexia now. After panic selling of Dexia shares on Monday, Belgium's finance minister said, "The French and Belgian governments are behind their banks, whether that is Dexia or another. To help banks and to help, for example French and Belgian savers, the first thing to do is to help Greece." <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-03/dexia-plunges-in-brussels-on-concern-second-rescue-required.html "Bloomberg"#> and <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/oct/03/dexia-shares-france-belgium "Guardian"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Civilians flee Sirte, Libya, ahead of rebel onslaught" <#inc ww2010.pic g111003b.jpg right "" "Civilians fleeing Sirte pass a checkpoint on the outskirts of the city on Sunday. (Reuters)"#> Fearing a coming bloodbath, tens of thousands of civilians are fleeing their homes in Sirte, the birthplace of Libya's former leader Muammar Gaddafi, as thousands of rebel troops encircle the town. Sirte is one of the last major strongholds of Gaddafi supporters, and the fighting has been fierce. Residents are desperate to flee the city, despite the fact that Gaddafi supporters are blockading exit roads and threatening to kill anyone who tries to leave. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,789626,00.html "Der Spiegel"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Administration lobbies Congress to restore Palestinian aid" Fearing a collapse of the Palestinian Authority, the Obama administration is lobbying Congressional leaders to restore $200 million in aid that was blocked in retaliation for the bid to the United Nations to recognize a Palestinian state. On Monday, State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said, "We think it is money that is not only in the interest of the Palestinians, it is in U.S. interest and it is also in Israeli interest and we would like to see it go forward," <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/03/palestinians-israel-usa-idUSN1E7921V620111003 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Anti-China tariff bill advances in Congress" The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was enacted by Congress in 1930, against the advice of almost all economists of the time. The effects were enormous. The bill erected large trade barriers for numerous products, virtually shutting down product exports to the United States. Both Germany and Japan were particularly affected. The Smoot-Hawley act was arguably the first hostile act of World War II. A bill with similar intent, and with strong bipartisan support, is now being considered by the Senate. It would let American businesses seek duties on Chinese imports, supposedly to make up for the weak yuan. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-03/china-currency-measure-sending-a-message-advances-in-senate.html "Bloomberg"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=972 "4-Oct-11 World View -- Belgium's Dexia bank may be near collapse"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111003b 3-Oct-11 News -- Burma (Myanmar) suspends dam project in major break with China =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111003b.head 3-Oct-11 News -- Burma (Myanmar) suspends dam project in major break with China =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111003b.keys Generational Dynamics, Burma, Myanmar, Myitsone dam, China, 88 Generation, Unraveling era, Thein Sein, Paris Hilton =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111003b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1110 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111003b.date 3-Oct-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111003b.txt1 Burma's generational Unraveling era brings big changes =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111003b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Burma (Myanmar) suspends dam project in major break with China" The government of Burma (Myanmar) has made a surprise announcement that the construction of a huge hydroelectric dam being built in a partnership with China is being suspended, at least until 2015, according to the <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-15123833 "BBC"#> <#inc ww2010.pic g111002.jpg center "" "Burma - Myitsone dam"#> The Myitsone dam project is definitely aligned with Chinese culture, rather than Burmese culture, or the culture of any other country. With 1.5 billion people, China faces a reality that people are a commodity and land is priceless. So China has more dams within its borders than any other country, according to the <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/mar/04/china-dams-emissions-carbon-hydropower "Guardian."#> Chinese dams have displaced an estimated 23 million people. Dam breaks in the country with the world's worst safety record have killed approximately 300,000 people. The enormous Three Gorges dam project alone displaced 1.3 million people. The Burma dam project is clearly a Chinese projects, and would have created a reservoir of some 296 square miles, an area larger than Singapore, in addition to displacing thousands of people, mostly from the Kachin ethnic group, according to environmental group <#stdurl http://www.internationalrivers.org/en/node/6882 "International Rivers."#> Despite that, some 90% of the electricity would be exported to China, which adds insult to injury. So it's not surprising that there's been widespread opposition to the dam project from the Kachin People’s Organization, conservationists, scholars, and political activists including Aung San Suu Kyi. What IS surprising is that the Burmese government actually acceded to the demands of the opposition, risking a major confrontation with China. Burma's government is currently the target of international sanctions that were imposed on the former military government, and China has been one of the country's continuing allies. The $3.6 billion Myitsone project was being developed jointly by the state Myanmar Ministry of Electric Power, the privately-owned Asia World Company of Burma and the China Power Investment Corporation. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Objections from China" China's <#stdurl http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/xwfw/s2510/t864761.htm "Foreign Ministry"#> issued the following cautious statement on Saturday, in reaction to the project suspension:
"The Chinese Government always supports Chinese enterprises cooperating with enterprises of other countries based on the principle of mutual respect, mutual benefit and equality, requires them to perform duties and fulfill obligations in strict accordance with laws and regulations of the host country and urges relevant government to protect the legal and legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises. The Myitsone Dam is a jointly invested project between China and Myanmar that has gone through scientific verification and strict examination of both sides. Relevant matters arising from the implementation of the project should be handled appropriately through bilateral friendly consultation."In fact, anti-Chinese sentiment has been growing in Burma, according to the <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-15121801 "BBC,"#> and the the Myitsone dam project has become a lightning rod for that resentment. China exploited the void created by international sanctions, and moved rapidly to exploit Burma's rich natural resources, as well as develop the Myitsone dam. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Burma's generational Unraveling era" In my 2007 article, <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e070926 ""Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter,""#> I provided a generational history of Burma. Burma's last generational crisis war was an extremely bloody ethnic civil war that climaxed in 1958 after intervention by China. As always happens, this crisis war was followed by a Recovery Era in which austere rules and institutions were created with the sole objective of guaranteeing that no such war should ever be allowed to happen again. Thirty years later, on 8/8/88, Burma had an Awakening Era clima, when hundreds of thousands of students in the "88 generation," joined by monks and civilians, marched against the military government. Soldiers opened fire on demonstrators with machine guns, resulting in thousands of casualties. In the aftermath, the military government cracked down brutally. They particularly arrested Aung San Suu Kyi, daughter of World War II hero Aung San, and kept her under arrest until recently. When the military government brutally slaughtered thousands of monks and civilians peacefully protesting in 2007, it was widely believed that the 1988 slaughter would be repeated. In fact, a lot of it was repeated, but there was a difference. Burma in 2007 was in a generational Unraveling era, so named because the austere rules and institutions of the Recovery era all unravel. The unraveling in Burma has been rapid. Aung San Suu Kyi is now free. The military government has been replaced by a civilian government. And Burma is on the verge of releasing some of the more than 2,000 political prisoners held in its jails, a move that is one of the main criteria for the lifting of sanctions against the country, according to <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f3b031ce-e9b7-11e0-bb3e-00144feab49a.html "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>. President Thein Sein has proposed a labor law allowing trade unions to take industrial action. And the authorities in Rangoon last week allowed an opposition demonstration to commemorate the uprisings of three years ago. Thus, the suspension of the Myitsone dam project was not an isolated event; it was only the latest action in a series of actions, following the shock of the bloody overreaction to the 2007 demonstrations, that are returning Burma to a more democratic government. The postwar austerity is unraveling completely. Possibly most significant in this unraveling period is that Burma is clearly trending away from China, signalling the likelihood that Burma will side with India and the west in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Burma Dumps China And Embraces Paris Hilton" In a bizarre twist of events, Burma has dumped its longstanding trading partner China in favor of Paris Hilton. Paris has been a vocal opponent of the Myitsone dam. "I have told President Thein Sein I will open lots of perfume, handbag and shoe factories as long as he stops this dam project and that I'll tell Obama to drop the sanctions to achieve these goals," said Paris. <#stdurl http://www.thespoof.com/news/spoof.cfm?headline=s4i100571 "The Spoof"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=971 "3-Oct-11 News -- Burma (Myanmar) suspends dam project in major break with China"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e111003 3-Oct-11 World View -- Greece misses requirements for next bailout payment =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111003.head 3-Oct-11 World View -- Greece misses requirements for next bailout payment =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111003.keys Generational Dynamics, Greece, troika, European Commission, European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, labor reserve, Pakistan, al-Qaeda, Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan, TTP, Baitullah Mehsud, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Islam Karimov, Leon Panetta, Egypt, Israel, Turkey, Hugo Chávez, Venezuela, Tibetan plateau, China =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111003.loc ww2010.weblog.log1110 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111003.date 3-Oct-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111003.txt1 Terrorist groups in Pakistan are splintering into smaller groups =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e111003.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Greece misses requirements for next bailout payment
"We are determined, the Greek people are determined, to make this a great success. When people ask me, "Do you have the support?" my first answer is "That is not my problem." I have said, "I am here to work for my country, save my country, change the country. whether I am reelected or not is not my problem. My problem is to save the country. ... I understand the political difficulties in our European family. And one country wonders why it should support another for its past mistakes. Or why some country should take so much pain for a crisis that began with the banking system. But as I have said, this is not an investment in past failures. This is an investment in future successes, our common success. But now Europe must go one step further. We must prove to the markets that we have a firm grip on the debt crisis, and that we are determined to resolve it together. Because our common future depends on it. Whenever I think of Europe's future, I also remember Europe's past. In the bloody and bitter aftermath of the second world war, Europe decided to make business, not war. This was not just an economic objective. It was above all a profoundly political objective, to build a Europe free of destructive nationalism, ethnic hatred and poverty. Caught up in the current crisis, it's easy to lose sight of the bigger picture. But let's try to get some historical perspective on our union, a union of nations with a history of violent conflicts, a union of nations whose borders have often been disputed, a union of nations with all kinds of political systems and competitive differences. ... Instead of war and imperialism, today Europe exports peace, social and democratic principles. ... The European Union has always been much more than a common market, even though we're not a United States of Europe. So if the sovereign debt crisis has strained European unity, here again we can make this crisis an opportunity -- deeper integration, deeper understanding, greater oversight and control. For example, surely Greece, a small country with a GDP not much bigger than the German state of Essen, cannot be responsible for rattling the very foundations of the Union."By playing the "World War II card," he's directly striking at the heart of anxiety for European elders: the fear that if the European Union continues to fall apart, then Europe will return to "destructive nationalism, ethnic hatred and poverty." Generational Dynamics predicts that this is in fact what will happen. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel's Netanyahu approves peace talks while new settlements are announced" <#inc ww2010.pic g110927c.jpg right "" "New settlement construction site in Gilo, east Jerusalem (AFP)"#> Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was harshly criticized by political leaders in Europe and America, after Israel approved construction of 1,100 new settlement homes in the east Jerusalem neighborhood of Gilo. EU Foreign Affairs Chief Catherine Ashton urged Israel to "reverse" its decision, saying that "settlement activity" threatens the viability of a two-state solution. On the same day, Netanyahu announced the support of the Mideast Quartet's initiative for renewed peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians. These two announcements would appear to be contradictory, since Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas has committed to not having peace talks as long as settlements are being built in the West Bank. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=239792 "Jerusalem Post"#> and <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/israel-decides-to-support-quartet-plan-for-renewed-talks-with-palestinians-1.387091 "Haaretz"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria's regime fights the 'Free Syrian Army' of defectors" Dozens of armored vehicles entered the central Syria town of Rastan early Tuesday, while army troops stormed hospital emergency rooms looking for wounded rebel soldiers. Dozens of people were reported taken from their homes. Syrian troops backed by tanks and helicopters have killed at least eight people in raids designed to crush army deserters, who have formed the "Free Syrian Army," consisting of thousands of defectors across the country. <#stdurl http://blogs.voanews.com/breaking-news/2011/09/27/syrian-forces-seeking-army-defectors-storm-cities-killing-8-2/ "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pakistan lauds China's birth as a brilliant miracle" President Asif Ali Zardari was positively rapturous in his statements about China's National Day celebrations, commemorating the October 1, 1949, birth of the People's Republic of China. "The people of Pakistan join their Chinese brethren in celebrating that important turning point in world history, the formal proclamation by Chairman Mao of the founding of the People’s Republic." He said that never before in the annals of history had a people taken hold of their destiny so resolutely, marched forward with such distinction and accomplished such great feats. He said China's birth was also the birth of a miracle, a brilliant chapter in the story of human kind, a miracle continues to unfold to this day. <#stdurl http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=69786&Cat=2 "The News (Pakistan)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China strengthens relationships with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia" Pakistan hosted China's top security official, Meng Jianzhu, and staged war games with Saudi Arabia on Monday, strengthening relations with the two nations, at a time when America's relationships with both nations are deteriorating sharply. Generational Dynamics predicts that Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni Muslim countries will be allies of China in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war. Meng was visiting Pakistan to discuss Chinese Uighur militants who are living in northwest Pakistan alongside al-Qaida-linked extremists. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g9nV7ef0Nx0jemKj8VKuVYnQ0BcQ?docId=9a6a3b70b5424d09a61590fa01d3608a "AP"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=961 "28-Sep-11 World View -- Pakistan lauds China's birth as a brilliant miracle"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110927 27-Sep-11 World View -- European leaders float a fantasy bailout plan =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110927.head 27-Sep-11 World View -- European leaders float a fantasy bailout plan =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110927.keys Generational Dynamics, IMF, Greece, Jens Weidmann, Bundesbank, home sales, Palestinian state, U.N. Security Council =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110927.loc ww2010.weblog.log1109 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110927.date 27-Sep-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110927.txt1 U.N. Security Council considers Palestinian state application =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110927.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * European leaders float a fantasy bailout plan
"It is a moment of truth and my people are waiting to hear the answer of the world. Will it allow Israel to continue its occupation, the only occupation in the world? Will it allow Israel to remain a State above the law and accountability? Will it allow Israel to continue rejecting the resolutions of the Security Council and the General Assembly of the United Nations and the International Court of Justice and the positions of the overwhelming majority of countries in the world? I come before you today from the Holy Land, the land of Palestine, the land of divine messages, ascension of the Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) and the birthplace of Jesus Christ (peace be upon him), to speak on behalf of the Palestinian people in the homeland and in the the Diaspora, to say, after 63 years of suffering of the ongoing Nakba: Enough. Enough. Enough. ["Nakba" means "Catastrophe" - JX] It is time for the Palestinian people to gain their freedom and independence. The time has come to end the suffering and the plight of millions of Palestine refugees in the homeland and the Diaspora, to end their displacement and to realize their rights, some of them forced to take refuge more than once in different places of the world. At a time when the Arab peoples affirm their quest for democracy - the Arab Spring - the time is now for the Palestinian Spring, the time for independence."Thousands of Palestinians crowded into an overflowing Clock Square in Ramallah. As Abbas began to speak the square fell almost entirely silent. But his pledge that "the people will continue their popular peaceful resistance" against occupation and "apartheid" was greeted with whistles, cheers and a rolling sea of flag waving. There were supporters on every visible rooftop waving the Palestinian flag and hundreds more dangling out of windows, craning to see the speech live on the big screens. <#stdurl http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/219078/20110923/mahmoud-abbas-un-speech-palestine-statehood-israel.htm "IB Times"#> and <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/sep/23/mahmoud-abbas-saluted-historic-speech "Guardian"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Abbas submits application to U.N. Security Council" <#inc ww2010.pic g110923c.jpg right "" "Abbas presents statehood application to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on Friday (AP)"#> Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas formally asked the U.N. Security Council Friday to recognize a Palestinian state. The Security Council is expected to take weeks, perhaps months, to act on the statehood application. In his U.N. address, shortly after the Abbas speech, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel will support Palestinian statehood, but only after a negotiated peace accord that guarantees Israel’s security. He said Israel left Gaza, uprooting settlements in 2005 to international applause, but was rewarded with a takeover of Gaza, and rocket attacks, by the militant Hamas. He said the core issue of the conflict is not settlements, but the Palestinians’ refusal to accept a Jewish state in any borders.
"Israel is prepared to have a Palestinian state in the West Bank, but we’re not prepared to have another Gaza there. And that’s why we need to have real security arrangements, which the Palestinians simply refuse to negotiate with us. Who’s there to stop us [from conducting negotiations]? What is there to stop us? If we genuinely want peace, what is there to stop us from meeting today and beginning peace negotiations?"In the meantime, the United States and the other members of the Middle East Quartet - the European Union, Russia and the United Nations - offered a new proposal for direct talks Friday. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/-Palestinians-Submit-Statehood-Application-to-UN-130435223.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "President Saleh makes surprise return to Yemen" <#inc ww2010.pic g110923d.jpg right "" "President Saleh in May (Reuters)"#> Yemen's president Ali Abdullah Saleh made a surprise return to the capital city Sanaa on Friday. He returned from Saudi Arabia, where he has been recuperating from a terrorist bomb attack in early June. "I return to the nation carrying the dove of peace and the olive branch," he said on state television. But the military battle continued between Saleh's security forces and defectors who are backing anti-Saleh protesters. The fear is that Saleh's return will ignite further violence and civil war. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/23/us-yemen-idUSL5E7KL0XB20110923 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Mullen's accusations send U.S.-Pakistan relations down unpredictable path" U.S. Admiral Mike Mullen's testimony to the the Senate Armed Services committee on Thursday that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency was directly supporting the Taliban-linked Haqqani network that was conducting terrorist attacks against Americans and American allies in Afghanistan, has substantially increased tensions between America and Pakistan. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110923 ""23-Sep-11 World View -- Admiral Mullen accuses Pakistan of terrorism in Afghanistan""#>) According to U.S. officials, terrorists who attacked the U.S. Embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, last week, killing 34, left behind cell phones that showed that the terrorists were in contact with the ISI both before and during the attack. <#stdurl http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/09/23/eveningnews/main20110965.shtml "CBS News"#> Pakistan public opinion is sharply split over Mullen's accusations. The government is angrily denying the charges. Many people are expressing highly nationalistic demands that all contact with the U.S. be ended. However, many editorials are critical of the government. For example,
"A spate of reports has appeared of late in the western press, which, from the point of view of the Americans, would seem to buttress the case against Pakistan. Most allege that the Haqqanis are behind most of the attacks on US targets in Afghanistan. In the face of these clear signs from the US, Pakistan has been cautious, which is the correct posture. This however doesn’t stop the jingoists among the media and the retired bureaucratic community from advising Pakistan to stand up on its hind legs and pay the US back in kind. References are being made in Pakistan to America as an imperial hegemon which has been despoiling other states, starting with Vietnam and ending with Iraq and Afghanistan. This kind of rhetoric is misplaced because the question everyone has to answer next is: knowing all this, why did Pakistan become a strategic partner of the hegemon? Since this question can’t be answered — condemnation of past rulers of Pakistan will not do — let us focus on our internal weaknesses and approach the crisis realistically. Also, quite crucially, we need to realise that regardless of what the reality on the ground may be, whether the Haqqanis are acting independently or what have you, the fact of the matter is that what Pakistan says in its defence is no longer being believed in foreign capitals. It doesn’t matter if the Foreign Office comes out with statements, as it did on September 20, the point is that no one abroad is ready to believe much of what we are saying."A common fear is that the U.S. will take whatever military action it wants, within Pakistan's borders:
"Statements from the likes of Interior Minister Rehman Malik denying these charges and nudging the Americans to “prove” their allegations are tantamount to giving them a reason to go on an all out offensive. No one is now ready to believe that Pakistan’s military-intelligence establishment has not played a double game with the US and, some would say, the Pakistani nation."<#stdurl http://tribune.com.pk/story/258834/time-for-some-hard-decisions/ "Express Tribune (Pakistan)"#> and <#stdurl http://dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2011\09\24\story_24-9-2011_pg3_1 "Daily Times (Pakistan)"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=956 "24-Sep-11 World View -- Abbas asks U.N. to admit Palestine as a full member"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110923 23-Sep-11 World View -- Admiral Mullen accuses Pakistan of terrorism in Afghanistan =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110923.head 23-Sep-11 World View -- Admiral Mullen accuses Pakistan of terrorism in Afghanistan =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110923.keys Generational Dynamics, Mike Mullen, Pakistan, Haqqani Network, Inter-Services Intelligence, Rehman Malik, World Bank, Robert Zoellick =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110923.loc ww2010.weblog.log1109 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110923.date 23-Sep-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110923.txt1 World Bank warns of spreading financial crisis =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110923.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Admiral Mullen accuses Pakistan of terrorism in Afghanistan
"The Haqqani Network ... acts as a veritable arm of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence Agency. With ISI support, Haqqani operatives planned and conducted that truck bomb attack, as well as the assault on our embassy. We also have credible intelligence that they were behind the 28 June attack against the Inter-Continental Hotel in Kabul and a host of other smaller but effective operations. In choosing to use violent extremism as an instrument of policy, the government of Pakistan - and most especially the Pakistani Army and ISI - jeopardises not only the prospect of our strategic partnership, but also Pakistan's opportunity to be a respected nation with legitimate regional influence. They may believe that by using these proxies they are hedging their bets, or redressing what they feel is an imbalance of regional power. But in reality they have already lost that bet."This unprecedented condemnation was the harshest public appraisal of Pakistan yet. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-15024941 "BBC"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pakistan will not tolerate American 'boots on the ground'" Pakistan's Interior Minister Rehman Malik categorically rejected US allegations that ISI aids or has ties to the Taliban-allied Haqqani network, and said that Pakistan will not tolerate any incursion onto its territory by US forces targeting militant groups.
"The Pakistan nation will not allow the boots on our ground, never. Our government is already cooperating with the US…but they also must respect our sovereignty. If you say that it is ISI involved in that attack, I categorically deny it. We have no such policy to attack or aid attack through Pakistani forces or through any Pakistani assistance. ... We are fighting a common enemy but unfortunately not with a common strategy. Instead of a blame game we have to sit together. We are not part of the terrorism, we are part of the solution. ... For us, whether it’s the Haqqanis or Tehreek-e-Taliban, or LeJ, they are all terrorist outfits and we will leave no stone unturned to go against them. ... Pakistan should be given some trust, and this trust deficit should go away, because we are fighting a war. There is not a day that is not 9/11 for my country."Malik also complained that the Americans had so far not provided Pakistan with intelligence that would help it go after the Haqqani network. Dawn =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "World Bank warns of spreading financial crisis" The global economy is deteriorating rapidly, according to World Bank President Robert Zoellick. Budgets are deteriorating and government deficits are increasing in countries around the world. "If the situation deteriorates further, then developing countries' growth could turn down, their asset prices could drop and then their non-performing loans could increase," he said. "With these pressures and prospects we have to anticipate possible protectionist pressures, beggar-thy-neighbor policies and a risk of a retreat to Populism." <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/22/us-worldbank-developing-idUSTRE78L74520110922 "Reuters"#> <#inc ww2010.pic dppr1-100801-s.gif right "" "S&P 500 Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E1) 1871 to August 2010"#> I'm posting this chart again because it's still highly relevant, and it explains what's going on on Wall Street. Even if you don't understand the Law of Mean Reversion at all, you can still understand this chart. This shows that P/E ratios (also called "valuations") have been high, sometimes astronomically high, continuously since 1995. And you can see that valuations are on their way down to 1982 levels, which implies a stock market at the Dow 3000 level or lower. (Since August, 2010, the P/E ratio has fallen to about 15.) Zoellick referred to protectionism and beggar-thy-neighbor policies. These could be components of a worldwide financial panic. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a massive generational panic and crash is coming, for the first time since 1929. This must occur for the same reason that many times an alcoholic won't reform until he "hits bottom," losing his family, his home and his job. No one seriously believes that world political and financial executives have "reformed" since the crisis first began in 2007; in fact, the abuses are much worse today than they were then. It's impossible to predict exactly when this full-scale panic and financial crash will occur, but it's coming with mathematical certainty. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=955 "23-Sep-11 World View -- Admiral Mullen accuses Pakistan of terrorism in Afghanistan"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110922 22-Sep-11 World View -- Obama delivers 'warmest pro-Israel speech ever' to UN =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110922.head 22-Sep-11 World View -- Obama delivers 'warmest pro-Israel speech ever' to UN =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110922.keys Generational Dynamics, Barack Obama, Israel, Palestinian Authority, Security Council, United Nations, Jens Weidmann, Bundesbank, ECB, troika, European Commission, IMF =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110922.loc ww2010.weblog.log1109 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110922.date 22-Sep-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110922.txt1 Greece announces new austerity measures =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110922.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * President Obama delivers 'warmest pro-Israel speech ever' to UN
"Let us be honest with ourselves: Israel is surrounded by neighbors that have waged repeated wars against it. Israel’s citizens have been killed by rockets fired at their houses and suicide bombs on their buses. Israel’s children come of age knowing that throughout the region, other children are taught to hate them. Israel, a small country of less than eight million people, look out at a world where leaders of much larger nations threaten to wipe it off of the map. The Jewish people carry the burden of centuries of exile and persecution, and fresh memories of knowing that six million people were killed simply because of who they are. Those are facts. They cannot be denied."Things like the settlements and the 1967 borders were not mentioned, though they were major elements of Obama's previous speeches on the Mideast. This speech represents a major change in Obama's policy in the Mideast. <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/obama-gets-a-kosher-seal-of-approval-1.385896 "Haaretz"#> and <#stdurl http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/09/21/remarks-president-obama-address-united-nations-general-assembly "White House"#> I first wrote about Barack Obama in 2007, in <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e070123 ""Barack Obama to Boomers: Drop dead!""#> In that article, I quoted Obama as expressing his contempt for Boomers. This was when Obama and the loony left were doing everything in their power to cause America to lose and be humiliated in Iraq. In the end, it was the loony left that was humiliated, after the success of President Bush's "surge" strategy. People have criticized me for being "anti-Obama." I've never been "anti-Obama," but I've been extremely critical of the ridiculous promises that he made. He said in 2008, "This was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal." He would be guided by facts, not like President Bush, who was guided by ideology and ignored facts. He would cure global warming, close Guantanamo, become friendly with Iran and North Korea, bring a two-state solution to Palestinians and Israelis, beat the Taliban and al-Qaeda, end the financial crisis, reflate the real estate and stock market bubbles and, of course, provide universal health care. He has not achieved a single one of these objectives, and many of them are total failures. Wednesday's reversal on Mideast policy is just the latest example. People who criticized me for criticizing Obama's policies were dead wrong, and I was right. Race was never an issue for me, and ideology was never a major issue. For me, the major criticism of Obama was that he was too young, too inexperienced, a nihilistic Gen-Xer who believes that if he destroys the world and rebuilds it, then it will be "healed." He's grown a great deal in his job, though he still has a lot to learn. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, none of this is surprising. It's a basic principle of Generational Dynamics that, even in a dictatorship, great events are determined by generations of people, not by the politicians. Obama may have different rhetorical skills than President Bush, but the policy results have been the same as if Bush had had a third term. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Palestinians back off on statehood bid -- temporarily" With enormous pressure being applied by the Americans, the Europeans, and even Hamas, to back off, Palestinian Authority (PA) officials have agreed not to rush the United Nations Security Council into reaching a decision on membership of a Palestinian state in the U.N. The Palestinians will give the UN Security Council "some time" to study their application for full membership in the United Nations. Like so many other political decisions these days, this one "kicks the can down the road" for a while, giving Western politicians time to find some formula that will derail the statehood bid entirely. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=238941 "Jerusalem Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel uses 'The Scream' as Palestinians demonstrate" Clashes broke out between Palestinians and Israeli security forces in the West Bank on Wednesday amidst celebrations in support of the Palestinian Authority's UN statehood bid. The Israeli Defense Force (IDF) in order to disperse several dozen Palestinians who were burning tires and throwing stones at security forces, used "The Scream," a non-lethal sonic weapon that emits a deafening sound people cannot stand. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=238942 "Jerusalem Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "ECB 'dissidents' meet secretly to oppose liquidity policies" Jens Weidmann, president of the Bundesbank (Germany's central bank) organized a meeting of "dissident" members of the European Central Bank (ECB) to strategize how to force an end to the ECB's "quantitative easing" policies -- purchasing near-toxic bonds issued by Spain and Italy. The meeting was secret, but not denied. Others attending were the central bankers of Luxembourg and Netherlands. If this movement grows, it will pit the countries with strong economies against those with weak economies. <#stdurl http://english.capital.gr/News.asp?id=1286530 "Capital.gr (Athens)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece announces new austerity measures" After many days of failing to come up with new austerity measures to convince the "troika" (the European Commission, the ECB, and the IMF) that it's deserving of the next bailout tranche, before going bankrupt in mid-October, Greece announced a new plan after a seven hour cabinet meeting. "These choices send the message to our partners and the markets that Greece wants and is able to fulfill its obligations, always remaining in the central core of the euro and the European Union." Most of the details were not announced, but they include a reduction in pensions, and in increase in taxes. No public sector workers are going to be laid off right away, but some 30,000 of them will be placed in a "labor reserve" by the end of the year, meaning that they will earn a reduced salary for a limited period before the government has the right to sack them or re-employ them. However, all of these measures still have to be approved by the Parliament. <#stdurl http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_8168_21/09/2011_407477 "Kathimerini"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=954 "22-Sep-11 World View -- Obama delivers 'warmest pro-Israel speech ever' to UN"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110921 21-Sep-11 World View -- Suicide bomb threatens Afghan 'peace process' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110921.head 21-Sep-11 World View -- Suicide bomb threatens Afghan 'peace process' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110921.keys Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Greece, Evangelos Venizelos, George Papandreou, S&P, Italy, Christine Lagarde, IMF, Slovakia, Finland, Burhanuddin Rabbani, Bank of China, Yemen, Mohsen al-Ahmar, Ankara, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110921.loc ww2010.weblog.log1109 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110921.date 21-Sep-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110921.txt1 Another day of disastrous financial news for Greece and Europe =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110921.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Another day of disastrous financial news for Greece and Europe
"Times are getting more and more interesting here in Europe. In fact, John has it right with the amount of real problems he is reporting, the only thing John is missing is the fear on the streets here. People are truly worried about the EU falling apart and the coming riots. Already shops on High Street which were doing very badly and are closing down in larger numbers now, jobs are even harder to find now and there are growing concerns about other Europeans coming into the UK to take jobs. My landlord said yesterday that in Ireland, mortgage rates are at 7-8%. Since the real estate collapse there in Ireland, values are down 50%."Sooner or later, there will be full scale panic, and that time may be close. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Europeans fail again to agree on bailout for Greece" Another telephone conference call, this one lasting two hours, between EU and Greek officials failed to produce an agreement on terms for Greece to receive the next tranche of its debt bailout, before it goes bankrupt in mid-October. Greece's finance minister Evangelos Venizelos said that he made "good process" in the talk. EU and IMF officials will return to Athens next week to seal the deal. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-19/greece-aid-talks-to-continue-after-productive-meeting-on-securing-funds.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "S&P downgrades Italy's debt" S&P's ratings service cut its rating on Italy's debt by one notch, and kept its outlook negative, a move that took markets by surprised. The rating agency warned of a deteriorating growth outlook and damaging political uncertainty. According to one analyst, "Coming at a time when the world's financial markets are on the edge, warily watching for a default by Greece with knock-on unknown effects on the financial system, the optics of this downgrade stink." <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/20/markets-global-idUSL3E7KK01220110920 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "IMF chief says that the world economy is in a 'dangerous new phase'" International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde said that the world economy has entered a "dangerous new phase." She said, "Exactly three years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the economic skies look troubled and turbulent as global activity slows and downside risks increase." <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-15/imf-s-lagarde-warns-world-economy-is-in-dangerous-new-phase-.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Slovakia threatens Europe's euro rescue package" According to the rules, all 17 euro countries must agree to a bailout before it will be allowed. Finland has already thrown a monkey wrench into the bailout of Greece by demanding "collateral" for their share. But perhaps even greater opposition will come from Slovakia, Europe's second poorest country, and a country that's already suffered painful, self-imposed economic reforms with any EU bailout. Now they're being asked to contribute €7.7 billion ($10.9 billion) to the euro rescue fund, and if the Parliament votes against it, then the entire rescue fund will collapse. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,787152,00.html "Spiegel"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Another suicide bombing threatens Afghanistan's 'peace process'" <#inc ww2010.pic g110920c.jpg right "" " Burhanuddin Rabbani on 26-Aug-11 (Getty)"#> Former Afghanistan president Burhanuddin Rabbani, a leading figure in the Afghan "peace process," and head of the a government council trying to negotiate a political settlement with the Taliban insurgents, was killed on Tuesday by a suicide bomber, throwing the "peace process" into further disarray. Rabbani and 27 others were killed by a militant who detonated explosives hidden in his turban. As we've reported, there have been numerous recent terrorist attacks on Kabul, including a 20-hour assault against the U.S. Embassy and NATO headquarters in Kabul that finally ended Sept. 14. That attack killed 16 Afghans — five police officers and 11 civilians, more than half of them children. <#stdurl http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/09/20/501364/main20108832.shtml "CBS/AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China's banks halt FX transactions with European banks" Bank of China and other Chinese banks are halting foreign exchange transactions with European banks. This follows the lead of other Asian banks that have been cutting credit lines and exposures to European banks during the last few months. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/20/uk-boc-swaps-idUSTRE78J0SZ20110920 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Yemen violence escalates, raising fears of civil war" Yemen's anti-regime demonstrations have been going on for eight months, but as we've been reporting, they suddenly took a far more violent turn on Sunday. Tuesday was the third day of increased violence, the worst since the demonstrations began. The conflict is morphing from one between the army and unarmed peaceful protesters into a military battle between forces loyal to the regime of President Ali Abdullah Saleh and army forces that have defected, led by defected General Mohsen al-Ahmar, who used to be Saleh's right hand man. There are hundreds of tents in the streets of central Sana, where thousands of protesters have been living for months, and protesters are being killed by stray shells from both sides. Estimated casualties are 50 deaths, 658 wounded, and 47 in critical condition. <#stdurl http://yemenpost.net/Detail123456789.aspx?ID=3&SubID=4093&MainCat=3 "Yemen Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Terrorist attack in Ankara, Turkey" <#inc ww2010.pic g110920d.jpg right "" "Terrorist attack in Ankara"#> A bomb planted inside a car near government offices in Turkey's capital, Ankara, killed three and wounded 34. No one has claimed responsibility for the terrorist act, but it's known that the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) have been stepping up terrorist attacks in Turkey in the last couple of months. <#stdurl http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=fatal-attack-hits-ankara-2011-09-20 "Hurriyet (Istanbul)"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=950 "21-Sep-11 World View -- Suicide bomb threatens Afghan 'peace process'"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110920 20-Sep-11 World View -- Chaos in Europe as deadline for Greece draws near =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110920.head 20-Sep-11 World View -- Chaos in Europe as deadline for Greece draws near =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110920.keys Generational Dynamics, Mahmoud Abbas, Israel, Palestinians, Benjamin Netanyahu, Barack Obama, Germany, Pirate Party, troika, European Central Bank, European Commission, International Monetary Fund, Greece, George Papandreou, Angela Merkel, Wolfgang Schäuble, Cyprus, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Yemen =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110920.loc ww2010.weblog.log1109 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110920.date 20-Sep-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110920.txt1 Pressure increases on Abbas to skip UN statehood bid =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110920.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Pressure increases on Abbas to skip UN statehood bid
"I was in Tunisia yesterday; I greeted people who carried out the Jasmine Revolution. Two days before that, I was in Egypt and I greeted people who have initiated the Arab Spring. Today, I am with you. Those who repress their own people in Syria will not survive. The time of autocracies is over. Totalitarian regimes are disappearing. The rule of the people is coming. ... Do not give credit to those who have plans for Libya's resources. Libya belongs to Libyans and it should remain so. God bless all of you."As we've been <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110917 "reporting,"#> Turkey is on a collision course with Greece, Cyprus and Israel in the eastern Mediterranean, with a possible military confrontation over oil and gas exploration. <#stdurl http://www.todayszaman.com/news-256939-syrias-oppressors-will-not-survive-erdogan-says-in-libya.html "Zaman"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia prepares justification for military intervention in former Soviet states" The Secretary-General of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), consisting of member states Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan from the old Soviet empire, is making statements that will justify future military interventions in member countries, in case of "Arab revolution" type upheavals and regime-succession crises. "Approval by the UN Security Council would not be necessary" for such interventions. The CSTO has mainly been emphasizing anti-terrorism activities in recent years, but the spate of Arab upheavals have opened the eyes of Russian officials to the possibility of analogous events in Central Asia and elsewhere in CSTO’s "area of responsibility." <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38395&tx_ttnews[backPid]=512 "Jamestown"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Denmark moves left with first woman prime minister in its history" <#inc ww2010.pic g110917c.jpg right "" "Helle Thorning-Schmidt (AFP)"#> After ten years of center-right political leadership, Denmark has swung to the other side of the political spectrum. Thursday's election gave center-left Social Democrat (SF) lead candidate Helle Thorning-Schmidt and her allies barely enough seats to form a coalition and become the first woman prime minister in Denmark's history. The Social Democrats promised to raise taxes for banks and the wealthy to help pay for better schools and hospitals. The new government has pledged to spend about 21 billion kroner ($3.9 billion) more a year on welfare than before. The opposition has warned that the policies will push Denmark deeply into debt. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,786652,00.html "Spiegel"#> and <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-09-15/thorning-schmidt-wins-danish-election-after-vowing-to-spend-more.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Abbas infuriated by document from American peace envoys" A special document that U.S. peace envoys David Hale and Dennis Ross presented to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas on Thursday was "the last straw" for Abbas, convincing him once and for all to go to the United Nations and ask for membership for a Palestinian state. The document was supposed to dissuade Abbas from going to the U.N., but instead it infuriated him. The document referred to Israeli settlements in the West Bank as "demographic changes." According to a Palestinian official, this phrase would actually legalize the settlements, which the entire world, including the U.S., had so far considered as illegal. <#stdurl http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2011/09/west-bank-a-us-paper-had-reverse-effect-on-abbas.html "LA Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "EU finance ministers again fail to agree on financial stability plans" <#inc ww2010.pic g110917d.jpg right "" "Anti-austerity protesters in Poland (Reuters)"#> A two-day meeting of 17 euro country finance ministers in Poland has failed to accomplish anything. The group had approved a bailout for Greece on July 21, but Greece has been falling behind with agreed fiscal and structural reforms that have been set as a condition for continued support for Athens by international lenders. Talk of an imminent Greek default is widespread. However, Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said, "The comments and analyses about an imminent default or bankruptcy are not only irresponsible but also ridiculous. Every weekend Greece ... is subject to this organized attack by speculators in international markets." <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/17/us-eu-crisis-idUSLDE78G00Z20110917 "Reuters"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=945 "18-Sep-11 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan receives rock-star treatment in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110917 17-Sep-11 World View -- Turkey on collision course with Greece, Israel in Mediterranean =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110917.head 17-Sep-11 World View -- Turkey on collision course with Greece, Israel in Mediterranean =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110917.keys Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Cyprus, Mediterranean, Israel, Greece, Russia, Barbarossa, Child mortality, food prices, cannon fodder, Mahmoud Abbas, Syria, Lebanon, China, Vietnam, India, Phillipines =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110917.loc ww2010.weblog.log1109 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110917.date 17-Sep-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110917.txt1 Child mortality falls, amount of cannon fodder grows =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110917.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Turkey on collision course with Greece, Israel in Mediterranean
"This is not finished, this is not done, this is not over; there are still parts of Libya under Gaddafi’s control. We will help you to find Gaddafi and bring him to justice."Sarkozy added that airstrikes against pro-Gaddafi forces "will continue as long as Libyan leaders think Libyan people are in danger." Whether this means that the Nato action will morph into a kind of "nation-building" exercise, like the ones in Iraq and Afghanistan, remains to be seen. <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-09-15/libyan-rebels-fight-for-sirte-as-u-k-french-leaders-pledge-aid.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Fed bails out Europeans with dollars" The European Central Bank (ECB) can "print" as many euros as it wants, and it has been doing so to purchase near-toxic bonds from Italy and Spain. However, the ECB cannot print dollars, and for the last couple of weeks there's been a growing crisis that European banks don't want to lend dollars to one another, let alone to other entities. U.S. money market funds and other traditional dollar lenders have become increasingly nervous about the threat of a Greek debt default. The ECB itself has been lending dollars to European banks, but the ECB is running out of dollars. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-14/ecb-lends-dollars-to-two-banks-in-the-euro-area-as-credit-markets-tighten.html "Bloomberg"#> In order to "kick the can down the road" yet one more time, and to provide three more months for the Europeans to find a way to keep Greece from defaulting, the Fed is setting up a "liquidity swap program" with four foreign central banks -- the ECB, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank. The Fed sets up "swap lines" with the foreign banks, exchanging their currency for dollars, with an agreement that the foreign banks have to exchange back at a fixed date, after three months in this case. Thus, the Europeans now have enough dollars to last them until the end of the year. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/15/us-ecb-dollar-idUSTRE78E3LH20110915 "Reuters"#> and <#stdurl http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_liquidityswaps.htm "Federal Reserve"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel prepares for West Bank violence on bid for Palestinian state" Large demonstrations and possible violence in the West Bank are expected in conjunction with the Palestinians' request for United Nations recognition of an independent Palestinian state. In preparation, Israel has given approval for the Palestinian Authority (PA) to equip its security forces with riot-control gear, such as tear gas grenades and rubber bullets. In addition, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is reinforcing its West Bank forces, calling up a few reserve battalions. The battalions have trained to deal with possible scenarios, including violent marches toward settlements, IDF checkpoints and major roads serving the Israeli population. <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/israel-okays-pa-s-acquisition-of-anti-riot-gear-ahead-of-un-vote-1.384530 "Haaretz"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey's rise threatens Iran's dreams of regional hegemony" When the "Arab Awakening" began, Iran claimed credit for it as having been inspired by Iran's Islamic Revolution of 1979, and hoped that it would lead to Iranian leadership among the Arab states. This was always a REALLY silly claim, but now Iran is facing a different reality. The Arab pro-democracy demonstrations are galvanizing Arabs around Turkey, leaving Iran out in the cold. This development is consistent with my oft-stated expectation that when forced to choose sides in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, Iran will side with the West, including Israel. <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7ed3e438-dfb5-11e0-b1db-00144feabdc0.html "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Jordanians hold smaller than expected anti-Israeli protest" <#inc ww2010.pic g110915b.jpg right "" "Protesters shout anti-US and Israeli slogans outside the US embassy in Amman (Reuters)"#> Activists had called for a "million-man march" against Israel, but only 300 or so demonstrators gathered at the Israeli embassy in Amman, Jordan, on Thursday. They demanded to end the 1994 Wadi Araba peace treaty with Israel, the second Arab peace deal signed with Israel, after the 1979 deal with Egypt. The demonstrators, a mix of leftist, liberal and Islamist opposition activists, instead gathered near a mosque close to the complex, shouting, "No Zionist embassy on Arab land." <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/09/2011915203518629423.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "American officials blame Pakistan for terrorist attack on Kabul" U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker and U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta are blaming Pakistan for not preventing the Haqqani group from perpetrating several terrorist attacks in Kabul, Afghanistan. On September 13, militants dressed in burqas worn by many Afghan women ferried a carload of weapons and ammunition past checkpoints and set off suicide bombs, killing six Nato personnel. This came three weeks after the Taliban killed eight people in an assault on the British Council cultural center. Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) service is known to have ties to the Haqqani network. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-14/u-s-says-fighters-tied-to-pakistan-spy-agency-hit-kabul-embassy.html "Bloomberg"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=943 "16-Sep-11 World View -- Fed bails out Europeans with dollars"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110915 15-Sep-11 World View -- Will China bail out a deteriorating Europe? =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110915.head 15-Sep-11 World View -- Will China bail out a deteriorating Europe? =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110915.keys Generational Dynamics, China, Europe, euro bonds, International Court of Justice, Italy, reparations, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey, Israel =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110915.loc ww2010.weblog.log1109 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110915.date 15-Sep-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110915.txt1 Criticism mounts for Turkey's Erdogan for 'dangerous macho posturing' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110915.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * China demands a price for bailing out Europe
"We have confidence in Europe's economy and euro, and support some European countries' efforts to stabilize market, balance budgets and boost structural reform. China will further expand trade and investment with Europe, continue to regard Europe as one of China's main investment markets, and enhance cooperation with European countries in macroeconomic policy-making, international financial system reform, and global governance."In return, however, China is demanding a high price -- a demand that the U.S. lift restrictions of high technology products to China, and European recognition of China as a "market economy." <#stdurl http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-09/14/c_131138865.htm "Xinhua"#> and <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,786287,00.html "Spiegel"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Desperate Europeans seek 'euro bond' solution" Moody's cut the credit ratings on Wednesday of two French banks, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole, because of their exposure to Greece's debt. Separately, European finance ministers have been warned that Europe is close to a renewed credit crunch and a "systemic" crisis in the euro zone. As Europe's banking system continues to deteriorate, some leaders are beginning to push hard for a "euro bond" solution. Under this scheme, all 17 eurozone countries would jointly issue and guarantee euro bonds, and individual countries would no longer issue national bonds. The result would be that the northern countries, such as Germany and Finland, would have to pay higher interest rates on their bonds. But the profligate southern countries, currently paying astronomical rates, would pay much lower rates. It seems highly doubtful that the Germans will go along with this, but even the Germans might agree to this out of desperation. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/14/us-eurozone-idUSTRE78B24R20110914 "Reuters"#> Some commentary:
"The latest dramatic development is the re-emergence of the banking crisis, which the authorities had hoped to quell through a sustained economic recovery and deliberately misleading stress tests. Both planks of that "strategy" have come unstuck. The rout on the French banking system highlights the need for an urgent recapitalisation -- an issue recently raised by Christine Lagarde, and angrily denied by the eurozone's complacent political leadership. The latest signs are that governments are about to allow the latest stage of the crisis to run out of control. <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ef510c44-de26-11e0-9fb7-00144feabdc0.html "The FT"#> has a story that France continues to resist pressure to recapitalise the banking system, quoting a French official as saying the French equivalent of "crisis, what crisis?" The French banking system, he said, was well capitalised. The problem was Greece, not the French banks. Moody's will decide on Thursday whether or not to downgrade French banks."<#stdurl http://www.eurointelligence.com/ "Euro Intelligence"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "World Court to decide on WW II Nazi reparations" Italian courts have awarded victims of Nazi war crimes monetary compensation from Germany, and have allowed the seizure of German property in Italy in payment. In 2008, Germany took the case to the United Nations International Court of Justice, claiming that Italian courts have violated German sovereignty by addressing civilian claims for Nazi war crimes. The case, which could have world wide consequences, will be heard this week. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,786216,00.html "Spiegel"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Criticism mounts for Turkey's Erdogan for 'dangerous macho posturing'" Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has become substantially more influential in the Arab world because of aggressive verbal attacks and military threats directed at Israel. However, outside of the Mideast, his statements are being criticized. European leaders are beginning to express alarm at his strident anti-Israel policy and his "macho posturing." Erdogan is risking a conflict with the West, and appears to have abandoned attempts to join the European Union. Erdogan is also receiving criticism in the Arab world for appearing to be abandoning the Syrian people, who are being massacred by the country's president Bashar al-Assad. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,786204,00.html "Spiegel"#> and <#stdurl http://www.asharq-e.com/news.asp?section=2&id=26573 "Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London)"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=942 "15-Sep-11 World View -- Will China bail out a deteriorating Europe?"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110914 14-Sep-11 World View -- Turkey again escalates military threat to Israel =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110914.head 14-Sep-11 World View -- Turkey again escalates military threat to Israel =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110914.keys Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Cairo, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Barack Obama, Iran, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Ann Curry, NBC's Today Show, Mahmoud Abbas, United Nations, Security Council, Angela Merkel, Italy, China, cooking oil =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110914.loc ww2010.weblog.log1109 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110914.date 14-Sep-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110914.txt1 Abbas will apply for full U.N. membership for Palestinian state =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110914.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Turkey's Erdogan receives hero's welcome in Egypt
"Muslim and Western publics continue to see relations between them as generally bad, with both sides holding negative stereotypes of the other. Many in the West see Muslims as fanatical and violent, while few say Muslims are tolerant or respectful of women. Meanwhile, Muslims in the Middle East and Asia generally see Westerners as selfish, immoral and greedy – as well as violent and fanatical."<#inc ww2010.pic g110910b.gif right "" "Pew report findings"#> One finding of the Pew study that is seldom reported in the West is that both Westerners and Muslims are almost equally concerned about Islamist extremism. For example, 77% of Israelis, 76% of Russians and 69% of Americans are concerned about Islamist extremism, but so are 78% of Palestinians, 73% of Lebanese, and 64% of Egyptians. This isn't surprising when you consider the fact that al-Qaeda linked terrorist acts have killed far more ordinary Muslims than Westerners. This proves that Islamist terrorism is a threat to everyone, Muslims and non-Muslims alike. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, when I report on Muslims, I distinguish between three groups. The largest group (probably 99.9%) are ordinary Muslims who are just trying to get through the day and feed and house their children, and aren't out to harm anyone. Even where anti-Americanism is high, which is certainly the case in Pakistan, it doesn't mean that ordinary Muslims wish harm to Americans; it does mean that they want Americans to go home, since they (incorrectly) blame Americans for the almost daily terrorist attacks in Pakistan. An analogous group in the West are what I've been calling for years the "loony left" in America, who are highly anti-American, but aren't terrorists. Many NY Times and MSNBC reporters and personalities appear to be in this category. The second group, sometimes called "salafists," commit terrorist acts over local or regional issues. Many of these groups either want nothing to do with al-Qaeda, or simply have not established a connection with al-Qaeda, but they still have no objections to blowing up a local shopping center to make a national political point. Analogous non-Muslim groups in the West are IRA and ETA terrorists. The third group, the "jihadists," are al-Qaeda linked terrorist groups. These include al-Qaeda itself (headquartered in Pakistan/Afghanistan), Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP - Yemen), and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM - North Africa). These groups are actively seeking to bring terrorism to Europe and America, and are dangerous to everyone, Muslims and non-Muslims alike. Interestingly enough, the Pew report only focuses on Sunni Muslims, pointedly omitting Iran, which has a largely pro-Western population, despite its hardline anti-Western leadership. As I've said in the past, I expect the coming Clash of Civilizations world war to pit China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim nations against America, Russia, India and the West, and I expect Iran, when forced to choose, will side with Israel and the West. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=938 "11-Sep-11 News -- Ten years after 9/11, Muslims and Westerners are far apart"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110911 11-Sep-11 World View -- Political crises in Turkey, Egypt and Israel =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110911.head 11-Sep-11 World View -- Political crises in Turkey, Egypt and Israel =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110911.keys Generational Dynamics, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel, Turkey, Egypt, Avigdor Lieberman, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Hosni Mubarak, Essam Sharaf, Osama Heika, Kim Jong-il, Kim Jong-un, Liu Ming, Uyghurs, Masood Khan, Xinjian, Kashgar, Hotan, Pakistan =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110911.loc ww2010.weblog.log1109 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110911.date 11-Sep-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110911.txt1 Egypt's government in crisis after storming of Israel's embassy =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110911.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Political crises in Turkey, Egypt and Israel
"We stressed the principle that we will ensure the safe movement of Gaza's aid vessel. The eastern Mediterranean Sea is not Israel's private playground. As long as it avoids intervening in the freedom of movement in the region, we won't send any warships to escort the vessels. It appeared as if we were offering to have warships escort every aid vessel. This is not true. Turkey will defend the rights of its citizens only when Israel chooses to intervene and prevent free movement in international waters."Since Turkey already claims that Israel's blockade of Gaza "prevent[s] free movement in international waters," it's hard for me to read this new statement as a retraction. However, it does appear to be a softening, forced on Erdogan by political pressure. <#stdurl http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4120259,00.html "Ynet"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Egypt's government in crisis after storming of Israel's embassy" <#inc ww2010.pic g110910c.jpg right "" " Demonstrators outside the Israeli embassy building in Cairo early on Saturday (AFP)"#> Egypt's security forces are on high alert, after three people were killed and 1,049 wounded in clashes that began on Friday and continued into Saturday, around the Israeli embassy in Cairo. Egypt's government held a crisis meeting in which prime minister Essam Sharaf offered to resign, an offer that the military council rejected. Egypt has announced that it will find and prosecute those responsible for the embassy violence, and will implement a state of emergency again. The repeal of emergency laws was a key demand of protesters in the uprising that toppled Hosni Mubarak in February. In a televised message Saturday, the information minister Osama Heikal said the government was committed to protecting all embassies in Egypt after three people were killed in overnight clashes, and authorities would apply "all articles of the emergency law to ensure safety". <#stdurl http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Egypt+vows+those+targeted+Israel+mission/5382936/story.html "Reuters"#> and <#stdurl http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/threat-of-emergency-law-after-cairo-riot "The National (UAE)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China: Chaos in North Korea over rise of Kim Jong-un" With North Korea's president Kim Jong-il approaching his 70th birthday, and pushing his young son Kim Jong-un as his successor, Chinese scholars and politicians are expecting chaos when Kim finally steps down and lets his son take over. According to Professor Liu Ming of the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences:
"Without Kim Jong-il's rule, the personality cult will be phased out and some long-restrained opinion and behavior will gradually burst out, [and] the three-four years after Kim Jong-il] will be a very dangerous period" while Kim Jong-un and his family will regain power and order. [The son] "will try to reestablish the personality cult again, [even as] less and less people will continue to believe a mystified Kim Jong-un. "Many people, including the military, doubt the legitimacy of the hereditary succession for three generations and particularly the qualifications of Kim Jong-un."<#stdurl http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/MI10Dg01.html "Asia Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Uyghur Unrest in Xinjiang shakes relations between China and Pakistan" <#inc ww2010.pic g110910e.jpg right "" "Pakistan's President Zardari and China's President Hu Jintao"#> The number of terrorist incidents by Muslim Uyghurs in China's northwest Xinjiang province has been increasing, causing death, destruction and ethnic tension the cities of Kashgar and Hotan. The situation was further complicated when the government of the city of Kashgar published a statement online that claimed at least one of the perpetrators had been trained in Pakistan. The allegation by Chinese officials cast a shadow over Sino-Pakistani relations, a bilateral relationship that had been characterized in Kashgar just the month before by Pakistani Ambassador to China Masood Khan as "higher than mountains, deeper than oceans, stronger than steel, sweeter than honey, and dearer than eyesight." Sounds like true love to me. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38346&tx_ttnews[backPid]=26&cHash=0deb5cb416e57f966d045c8f237bcf14 "Jamestown"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=938 "11-Sep-11 News -- Ten years after 9/11, Muslims and Westerners are far apart"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110910 10-Sep-11 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan harshly escalates the military threats against Israel =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110910.head 10-Sep-11 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan harshly escalates the military threats against Israel =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110910.keys Generational Dynamics, Greece, default, Evangelos Venizelos, George Papandreou, Germany, Angela Merkel, Egypt, Israeli embassey, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, International Protection, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, James Hoffa, ILWU =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110910.loc ww2010.weblog.log1109 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110910.date 10-Sep-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110910.txt1 Union longshoremen in Washington heed James Hoffa's call for violence =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110910.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Markets plunge on rumors of imminent Greece default
"A military solution is never the right solution. We believe that freedom and justice and respect for others are the rights of all nations. All governments have to recognise these rights. Problems have to be dealt with through dialogue. Other countries in the region can help the Syrian government and people to talk to each other with a view to resolving their differences and introducing the reforms that are needed."Ahmadinejad's remark carefully avoid mentioning Iran's own massacre of innocent Iranian people two years ago. <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/09/20119814058609374.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece's GDP fell by 7.3% in Q2 - more than expected" Greece's economy seems to become measureably worse almost every day, making it less and less likely that Greece will qualify for the next tranche of its bailout money, due at the end of this month. Previous estimates were that Greece's GDP would fall by 6.9%, compared to the second quarter of 2010, but the Hellenic Statistical Authority reported on Thursday that the GDP actually fell by 7.3%. <#stdurl http://english.capital.gr/News.asp?id=1277175 "Capital.gr"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "US investigates 'specific, credible' terror threat for 9/11" U.S. officials announced on Thursday that they have discovered information about a threatened terror attack planned for Sunday, the tenth anniversary of the September 11, 2001, attacks. The treat is described as "specific and credible," but "unconfirmed," meaning that they'll be working quickly to either confirm or refute that threat. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/US-Investigates-Specific-Credible-Threat-for-911-Anniversary-129501438.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "One, Two, Three ... Infinity - Revisited" <#inc ww2010.pic g110908c.jpg center "" "Exponential growth of public debt since end of World War II (Spiegel)"#> The silliest thing in President Barack Obama's jobs speech on Thursday evening was his promise that his new litany of spending projects will be "paid for." Incredibly this is supposed to be done by a special super congressional committee. These kinds of compromises were possible in the 1980s, when the Silent generation was in charge. But today, with the Gen-X culture in charge, there is no chance whatsoever of this kind of compromise. All that will happen is that both sides will maneuver to blame the other side. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-08/senator-kyl-says-he-may-quit-deficit-supercommittee-if-defense-cut-further.html "Bloomberg"#> In 2008, I wrote the article, <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e081125 ""One, Two, Three ... Infinity,""#> in which I compared to the ever-increasing government spending plans to a book by George Gamow that I read in school in the 1950s. My use of that particular phrase was to convey the idea that American debt was on an exponential growth path that would not be stopped except by a major financial collapse and crisis. The point of that article is that each bailout would fail, and the next one would have to be larger, and would achieve a smaller effect. (This is the Law of Diminishing Returns.) As the above graph shows, that exponential growth path has continued since 2008, and it will continue until there is a crisis so huge, that total financial collapse occurs. As the late economist Herb Stein said:
"Stein's Law: If something cannot go on forever, then it won't."=inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Generational split among Egypt's Bedouins in Sinai" While the "Arab Revolution" that began on January 25 in Egypt has not seriously divided Egyptians, the exceptions have been the ethnic Bedouins in Sinai, near the border with Israel and Gaza. After the recent terror attack on southern Israel launched from Sinai, Egypt has been planning increase a military presence there, and to build housing for millions more citizens. However, Bedouin tribal chiefs have been losing their influence among the young, who no longer take them seriously, and young Bedouins have been protesting and blocking development plans. <#stdurl http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/23089 "Al Masry Al Youm (Cairo)"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=934 "9-Sep-11 World View -- One, Two, Three ... Infinity - Revisited"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110908 8-Sep-11 World View -- Thousands of surface-to-air missiles missing from Libya warehouses =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110908.head 8-Sep-11 World View -- Thousands of surface-to-air missiles missing from Libya warehouses =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110908.keys Generational Dynamics, Libya, surface-to-air missiles, sa-24, Delhi, India, Germany, constitutional court, Switzerland, franc, currency war, Iran, Azerbaijan, Urmiyya Lake =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110908.loc ww2010.weblog.log1109 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110908.date 8-Sep-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110908.txt1 Germany's constitutional court approves bailouts =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110908.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Thousands of surface-to-air missiles missing from Libya warehouses
"Swiss National Bank sets minimum exchange rate at CHF [Swiss franc] 1.20 per euro The current massive overvaluation of the Swiss franc poses an acute threat to the Swiss economy and carries the risk of a deflationary development. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is therefore aiming for a substantial and sustained weakening of the Swiss franc. With immediate effect, it will no longer tolerate a EUR/CHF exchange rate below the minimum rate of CHF 1.20. The SNB will enforce this minimum rate with the utmost determination and is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities. Even at a rate of CHF 1.20 per euro, the Swiss franc is still high and should continue to weaken over time. If the economic outlook and deflationary risks so require, the SNB will take further measures."In other words, the SNB will "print" an unlimited number of francs and use them to purchase euros, in order to devalue the franc. This ought to be an interesting experiment. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-06/swiss-national-bank-sets-minimum-exchange-rate-of-1-20-against-the-euro.html "Bloomberg"#> and <#stdurl http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/reference/pre_20110906/source/pre_20110906.en.pdf "Swiss National Bank (PDF)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "CDC discovers new cases of mutated swine flu" New cases of swine flu with genes from the pandemic 2009 H1N1 swine flu have been reported. The new cases this year are similar to an outbreak of a new H1N1 virus in California in April 2009 that later became a pandemic flu. But that doesn’t mean that this virus will follow the same path, according to the CDC. <#stdurl http://news.consumerreports.org/health/2011/09/cdc-uncovers-a-new-swine-flu.html "Consumer Reports"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=930 "7-Sep-11 World View -- Turkey threatens military confrontation with Israel in Mediterranean"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110906 6-Sep-11 World View -- China scrambles to explain recent arms sales offers to Gaddafi =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110906.head 6-Sep-11 World View -- China scrambles to explain recent arms sales offers to Gaddafi =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110906.keys Generational Dynamics, Greece, IMF, bailout, Germany, Iceland, Geir Haarde, Steingrimur Sigfusson, China, Libya, Pakistan, CIA, ISI, Younis al-Mauritani, Israel, Gaza, Turkey =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110906.loc ww2010.weblog.log1109 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110906.date 6-Sep-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110906.txt1 Doubts escalate about the latest bailout of Greece =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110906.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Doubts escalate about the latest bailout of Greece
"Israel faces a real threat to its security from militant groups in Gaza. The naval blockade was imposed as a legitimate security measure in order to prevent weapons from entering Gaza by sea and its implementation complied with the requirements of international law. ... Although people are entitled to express their political views, the flotilla acted recklessly in attempting to breach the naval blockade. The majority of the flotilla participants had no violent intentions, but there exist serious questions about the conduct, true nature and objectives of the flotilla organisers. ... Israeli Defence Forces personnel faced significant, organised and violent resistance from a group of passengers when they boarded the Mavi Marmara requiring them to use force for their own protection. Three soldiers were captured, mistreated, and placed at risk by those passengers. Several others were wounded. ... No satisfactory explanation has been provided to the panel by Israel for any of the nine deaths. Forensic evidence showing that most of the deceased were shot multiple times, including in the back, or at close range has not been adequately accounted for in the material presented by Israel."<#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/sep/01/un-investigation-backs-israel-blockade-gaza "Guardian"#> A furious Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that irrespective of anything that the leaked U.N. report says, Turkey's demands of Israel are unchanged: official apology, compensation to families of the victims and lifting the Gaza blockade. Davutoglu said that Friday is the last chance for Israel to apologize. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Turkey intends now to move on to "Plan B," which will include a campaign against Israel to be carried out at UN institutions, legal action against senior Israeli figures in European courts, and an end to military cooperation between Turkey and Israel. <#stdurl http://www.todayszaman.com/news-255525-turkey-says-demands-from-israel-unchanged-powerful-to-protect-rights-of-citizens.html "Zaman (Istanbul)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Palestinians' may settle for being a U.N. 'Observer State'" If, as expected, the United States vetoes the Palestinian bid for admission to the United Nations as a sovereign state in the Security Council, then the Palestinians can ask the General Assembly for Palestine to be admitted as an "Observer State," which would not require Security Council approval. It would allow the Palestinians to level charges against Israel in the International Criminal Court, or to invite U.N. peacekeepers into the West Bank and Gaza, resulting in at least a legal confrontation with Israeli troops. <#stdurl http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2091317,00.html "Time"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "High-profile official resigns from Syria's government in protest" Judge Adnan Mohammad al-Bakkour, the attorney-general of Hama, a major city of Syria, has resigned in the first high-profile defection from the regime of president Bashar al-Assad. "I, Judge Adnan Mohammad al-Bakkour, Hama province Attorney-General, declare that I have resigned in protest of the savage regime's practices against peaceful demonstrators," he said. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/31/us-syria-defection-idUSTRE77U7H320110831 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia's Soyuz Program Crashes and Burns" With America's space shuttle fleet in mothballs, Nasa is depending on Russia's Soyuz rockets to transport supplies and astronauts to the international space station. But the recent crash of a Soyuz rocket on a supply mission is more than just an embarrassment for Russia's space industry. The accident follows a series of mishaps in the space program. These mishaps have shattered public confidence in the aging Russian technology, which is crucial to the future of manned spaceflight. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,783210,00.html "Spiegel"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=924 "2-Sep-11 News -- U.N. flotilla report raises Turkey-Israel tensions"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110901 1-Sep-11 World View -- Two Gaddafi sons contradict each other on negotiations =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110901.head 1-Sep-11 World View -- Two Gaddafi sons contradict each other on negotiations =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110901.keys Generational Dynamics, Muammar Gaddafi, Saadi Gaddafi, National Transitional Council, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, Iran, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Ali Akbar Salehi, Amnesty International, Nicolas Sarkozy, Mahmoud Abbas, King Abdullah II, Hamas, China, Tibet, Buddhism =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110901.loc ww2010.weblog.log1109 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110901.date 1-Sep-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110901.txt1 Jordan's king warns that Palestinian statehood would harm Palestinians' rights =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110901.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Two Gaddafi sons contradict each other on negotiations
[youtube EHQC8p6U26Q nolink]
So the last generational Libyan crisis ended in the mid-1930's with the Fezzan brutal conquest following the bloodly Cyrenaica conquest. For the ongoing one I'm not sure the rebels will unavoidably divide with the West invading the East or the contrary. Gaddafi and his son Saif Al Islam are still free and alive. Moreover the rebels have not yet taken the control of Syrte area and the Fezzan. So I suppose in the next months the civil war will continue with loyalists claiming to fight a NATO Quisling puppet government. You wrote: "the current civil war has not been anything like a generational crisis war." Well, both sides committed war crimes. They killed prisoners of war and finished off wounded fighters. The rebels target blacks because Gaddafi hired Chadians mercenaries and sometimes tortured them. Before giving up a town the loyalists routinely killed political prisoners or tried to do it. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Climate change scientists warn of extraterrestrial attacks" <#inc ww2010.pic g110829b.jpg right "" "A scene from Mars Attacks!"#> According to Nasa-affiliated scientists at Pennsylvania State University, extraterrestrial beings might view changes in Earth's atmosphere as symptomatic of a civilisation growing out of control – and take drastic action to keep us from becoming a more serious threat. To bolster humanity's chances of survival, the researchers call for caution in sending signals into space, and in particular warn against broadcasting information about our biological make-up, which could be used to manufacture weapons that target humans. <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2011/aug/18/aliens-destroy-humanity-protect-civilisations "Guardian"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=920 "30-Aug-11 News -- Bird flu pandemic concerns increase again"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110829 29-Aug-11 World View -- China expresses 'strong dissatisfaction' with the Pentagon's report =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110829.head 29-Aug-11 World View -- China expresses 'strong dissatisfaction' with the Pentagon's report =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110829.keys Generational Dynamics, China, Pentagon, Egypt, Sinai, Israel, Arab League, Syria, Euro, bailout, Germany, AQIM, Algeria, Nigeria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110829.loc ww2010.weblog.log1108 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110829.date 29-Aug-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110829.txt1 Egypt to deploy troops, armor, helicopters in Sinai =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110829.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * China expresses 'strong dissatisfaction' with the Pentagon's report"China unswervingly adheres to the path of peaceful development, and its national defense policy is defensive in nature. [China's defense building] is solely to safeguard its own sovereignty and territorial integrity, and ensure smooth economic and social development, and does not target any country. Given the progress of science and technology, it's normal for the Chinese army to develop and renew some weapons and equipment."<#stdurl http://eng.mod.gov.cn/TopNews/2011-08/26/content_4293378.htm "China's Ministry of Defense"#> The new Pentagon report shows that China is rapidly preparing for all-out war with America over Taiwan. An attack within 12-18 months is a reasonable expectation. Please see my complete analysis of the Pentagon report: <#hreftext ww2010.i.china110828 ""New Pentagon report outlines China's military buildup""#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Egypt to deploy troops, armor, helicopters in Sinai" Israel's defense minister, Ehud Barak, is reported to have said that Israel and Egypt have agreed that Egypt should deploy thousands of troops in Sinai, along with helicopters and armored vehicles, in even though the 1979 Camp David agreement strictly forbids it. "Sometimes you have to subordinate strategic considerations to tactical needs," said Barak. The agreement comes after a recent terrorist attack in southern Israel that was perpetrated by terrorists passing through Sinai, and the deaths of five Egyptians by Israeli forces in the aftermath of the attack. <#stdurl http://www.economist.com/node/21526921 "Economist"#> The Economist report has generated a great deal of interest throughout the Mideast, and a great deal of controversy in Israel, because it brings Egypt's armed forces close to Israel's border for the first time since the 1970s. When questioned about the report on Sunday, Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu seemed to confirm it by saying that the deployment is "not something that we have to rush into." He added that "Security arrangements must be dealt with, and we must invest more resources in building the barrier on the border with Egypt." <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=235690 "Jerusalem Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Lockerbie bomber Abdel Baset al-Megrahi near death" <#inc ww2010.pic g110828c.jpg right "" "Abdel Basset al-Megrahi on Sunday (CNN)"#> One hoped-for outcome of the war in Libya was that Abdel Baset al-Megrahi, the Libyan found guilty of the 1988 bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, would be returned to Scotland to serve out his jail sentence. However, Libya's rebel government said on Sunday that they will not extradite al-Megrahi to Britain. Then, several hours later, a CNN reporter was allowed by his family to visit al-Megrahi, and found him to be near death. According to his family, they've been unable to get al-Megrahi any medical care since Tripoli fell to the rebels. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Libyan-Rebels-Will-Not-Extradite-Lockerbie-Bomber-128568703.html "VOA"#> and <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/08/28/libya.lockerbie.robertson/ "CNN"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Arab League proposes Syria peace plan" The Arab League on Sunday joined the long line of nations and organizations calling on Syria's president Bashar al-Assad to stop massacring his own people. Arab League Secretary-General Nabil al-Arabi will visit Syria with "an initiative" to end the violence. But the statement provoked an angry rejection from Syria though, which condemned it as "a clear violation ... of the principles of the Arab League charter and of the foundations of joint Arab action." <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8728094/Arab-League-proposes-Syria-peace-plan.html "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Euro bailout plan deteriorates further as 'hysteria' sweeps Germany" Klaus Regling, the director of the EU's bailout rescue fund, says that "Hysteria is sweeping Germany," as opposition in penny-pinching Germany grows to bailing out the profligate "olive zone" nations in the south. Chancellor Angela Merkel no longer has enough votes in the Bundestag (Parliament) to guarantee backing of the euro bailout plan. Christian Wulff, Germany's president, stunned the country last week by accusing the European Central Bank of going "far beyond its mandate" with mass purchases of Spanish and Italian debt, and warning that the Europe's headlong rush towards fiscal union stikes at the "very core" of democracy. There may be a major crisis as early as next week, when Germany's Verfassungsgericht (constitutional court) rules on the legality of the EU's bailout package. A negative ruling would set off an instant brushfire across the euro zone. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8728628/Euro-bail-out-in-doubt-as-hysteria-sweeps-Germany.html "Ambrose Evans-Pritchard"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "AQIM takes credit for suicide bombing in Algeria on Friday" The group Al Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) claimed responsibility in a statement Sunday for the double suicide bombing that killed 18 people two days earlier at the Military Academy of Cherchell in Algeria. AQIM is also thought to be linked to the terrorist group Boko Hara that took credit for the bombing Friday of the United Nations building in Abuja, the capital city of Nigeria. <#stdurl http://www.ennaharonline.com/en/news/7135.html "Ennahar (Algiers)"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=918 "29-Aug-11 World View -- China expresses 'strong dissatisfaction' with the Pentagon's report"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110828 28-Aug-11 World View -- Al-Qaeda's second in command killed in Pakistan =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110828.head 28-Aug-11 World View -- Al-Qaeda's second in command killed in Pakistan =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110828.keys Generational Dynamics, Atiyah Abd al-Rahman, Al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden, AQIM, Libya, Damascus, Syria, Kafarsouseh, Bashar al-Assad, Monterrey, Mexico, casinos =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110828.loc ww2010.weblog.log1108 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110828.date 28-Aug-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110828.txt1 Mexico's federal agents raid Monterrey casinos =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110828.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Al-Qaeda's second in command killed in Pakistan
"We are neighbors, allies and friends. But you, too, are responsible. This is my message. [You should] once and for all stop the criminal sale of high-powered weapons and assault rifles to criminals that operate in Mexico. ... Part of the tragedy that we Mexicans are living through has to do with the fact that we are next to the world's greatest drug consumer, and also the greatest global arms vendor that pays billions of dollars each year to criminals."<#stdurl http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/08/26/2376448/us-bears-some-blame-for-casino.html "Miami Herald"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iran's Ahmadinejad says Palestinian state is only the 'first step'" Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Friday that having the U.N. gives full membership to a Palestinian state -- in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, with East Jerusalem as its capital -- was only the first step. "Recognising the Palestinian state is not the last goal. It is only one step forward towards liberating the whole of Palestine." <#stdurl http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/08/26/idINIndia-58992720110826 "Reuters"#> China's special envoy to the Middle East, Wu Sike, said here Friday that his country fully supports the Palestinians' right to establish an independent state in a balanced manner and through peace talks. "China supports the Palestinian people and their cause. We also support the Palestinians to get the United Nations recognition of a Palestinian state on the lands occupied in 1967 with Jerusalem as capital." <#stdurl http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-08/27/c_131077668.htm "Xinhua"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Egypt's 'million man protest' rally attracts only hundreds" Turnout was much lower than expected for an Egyptian demonstration on Friday outside Israel's embassy in Cairo calling on Egypt's government to expel Israel's ambassador, and to reevaluate the 1979 Camp David agreement with Israel. Activists had promised a "million man protest," but far fewer showed up. Israel has never been a target for this year's "Arab revolutions," and that's apparently still true in Egypt, even though national elections are coming up soon. The demands were triggered by the deaths of five Egyptians in the aftermath of last week's terrorist attack in southern Israel. <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/million-man-anti-israel-rally-in-cairo-attracts-only-hundreds-1.380903 "Haaretz"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Report accuses Moody's of ratings bias" There have been accusations by many people (including me) that the ratings agencies took fat fees in return for AAA ratings to fraudulent mortgage-backed securities in the 2003-2007 time period. Now a study by college professors claims that Moody's Investors Service inflated the credit scores of those securities which earned the most money for Moody's. Moody's challenges the validity of the study, but it's clear that there is going to be greater scrutiny on the ratings agencies to determine why they gave AAA ratings to synthetic securities that later turned out to be almost worthless. <#stdurl http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/08/25/report-accuses-moodys-of-ratings-bias/ "CNN Money"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Stocks rise because Bernanke announces a two-day meeting" What's going on is really laughable. At his speech on Friday morning, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke did not give traders anything that they were hoping for -- specifically a promise of more "quantitative easing" to help the banksters get their million dollar bonuses. But he did say that policy makers will meet for two days next month, instead of just one, to "allow a fuller discussion" of the economy and the Fed’s possible response. That was enough for the traders, who pushed stocks up 1.5-2% on Friday. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-26/fed-s-bullard-says-2-day-meeting-allows-fed-to-consider-options.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Dozens killed in suicide bombing of U.N. building in Nigeria" <#inc ww2010.pic g110826c.jpg right "" "Rescue workers search for survivors in U.N. building in Abuja, Nigeria (Reuters)"#> Dozens of people were killed or injured on Friday when a suicide car bomber rammed a Honda car laden with explosives into the United Nations building in Abuja, the capital city of Nigeria. All the four floors of the building were affected. The car, which rammed into the lobby of the building, exploded immediately, killing the suspected bomber instantly and almost everyone that was at the spot. <#stdurl http://www.thenationonlineng.net/2011/index.php/news/17432-bomb-kills-20-at-abuja-un-house.html "The Nation (Nigeria)"#> In February, we reported on numerous atrocities committed by Christians and Muslims against each other in Nigeria's central city of Jos. (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110224 ""24-Feb-11 News -- Clashes in Jos, Nigeria, pit Christians against Muslims""#>) Like Jos, Abuja is right on the fault line between Muslims in the north and Christians in the south. The Islamist terrorist group Boko Hara took credit for the attack on Friday. In the Hausa language, the group's name means "western education is a sin." It's believed that Boko Hara has ties to Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), which has committed numerous terrorist attacks in the Maghreb (northern Africa). <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/learningenglish/home/world/Boko-Haram-Claims-Nigeria-Attack-128490388.html "VOA"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=915 "27-Aug-11 World View -- Mexico blames U.S. for Monterrey terror attack"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110826b 26-Aug-11 News -- Fears of tribal violence in Libya grow =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110826b.head 26-Aug-11 News -- Fears of tribal violence in Libya grow =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110826b.keys Generational Dynamics, Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, Ireland, National Transitional Council, Abdel Fatah Younis, Condoleezza Rice =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110826b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1108 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110826b.date 26-Aug-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110826b.txt1 Muammar and Leezza, sittin' in a tree ... =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110826b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Fears of tribal violence in Libya grow" Libya is a tribal society, with over 140 tribes, according to <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/08/22/analysis.libya.shashank.joshi/ "CNN."#> Some analysts are claiming urbanization has reduced tribal identities, and that the population has become much more homogeneous, but I strongly disagree with that, based on theory from Generational Dynamics. <#inc ww2010.pic g110825.jpg center "" "Libyan rebel fighters step on a picture of Muammar Gaddafi in Tripoli (Reuters)"#> Northern Ireland is a good example of how tribal violence never completely disappears, as I reported two months ago in <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110623b ""23-Jun-11 News -- Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again.""#> To this day, there is still bitter violence between the indigenous Gaelic Irish people and the descendants of the English and Scottish people. The two groups fought the bloody Nine Years War four centuries ago (1594-1603), and the hate-filled memories continue until this day. So the tribes in Libya are "playing nice" right now, because they still have Gaddafi as a common enemy, and because they want to get their hands on the billions of dollars of frozen Libyan funds. As soon as those motivations recede, it's quite possible, even likely, that full-scale tribal war will break out. A proper understanding of what's happening in Libya today requires at least going back to the tribal wars of the 1930s. As I've said many times, I haven't found detailed information on those tribal wars, and it's quite possible that nothing was ever written down. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Mission accomplished or tribal war?" <#inc ww2010.pic g110220b.gif right "" "Libya, showing the three historic divisions: Tripolitania, Fezzan and Cyrenaica"#> Based on the limited information we have, we know that there's a sharp split between Tripoli and west Libya (Tripolitania), versus Benghazi and east Libya (Cyrenaica). The National Transitional Council (NTC), located in Benghazi, is a government of mostly eastern tribes, and western tribes do not necessarily feel that it represents them, especially because many of the western tribes (Warfalla, Magarha, Warshafana, Tarhuna, and Gaddafi's Qadadfa tribe in Sirte) enjoyed long-standing government largesse from Gaddafi's government, according to <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/08/22/analysis.libya.shashank.joshi/ "CNN."#> A list of the major Libyan tribes by region has been compiled by writer <#stdurl http://www.sandraoffthestrip.com/2011/02/26/libyan-tribes-in-alphabetical-order-and-by-east-or-west/ "Sandra Gore Nielsen."#> There are also substantial conflicts within the east and west. The commander of the rebel forces, General Abdel Fatah Younis, was assassinated several weeks ago, and the perpetrators still haven't been identified. Ali Senussi, the leader of the Obeidi tribe, centered in Tobruk, that Younis belonged to, promises that once things have begun to settle down, his tribe will get revenge, by either government law or tribal law, according to <#stdurl http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0825/Tribal-divisions-may-test-new-Libya-government "CS Monitor."#> "The Obeidis are promising this will not go unpunished. We hope to be in a country of law and good judgment that ensures our rights without us having to take them ourselves. But if we needed to take our justice by ourselves, we will do it." Tribal atrocities are already occurring in Tripoli. Fighting still continues between rebels and Gaddafi supporters in Tripoli. With anti-aircraft fire, mortars, machine gunners and snipers raking sectors of the city of 2 million, the streets have run red with blood, according to <#stdurl http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/article/1045086--libya-s-victorsneed-restraint "Reuters."#> According to the article, capital reporters saw the bodies of 30 men who apparently fought for Gaddafi. At least two had their hands bound. One was strapped to a hospital gurney with a drip still in his arm. Meanwhile medical workers report that Gaddafi's forces carried out a "mass execution" of 16 or more prisoners. A survivor of the massacre said the troops methodically shot the group as they prepared to retreat. A major tribal war is brewing around the city of Sirte (Surt), according to <#stdurl http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/08/25/501364/main20097170.shtml "AP."#> Sirte is Gaddafi's home towm, and the home of Gaddafi's own tribe. Gaddafi's whereabouts are unknown, but one possibility is that he's returned to Sirte and is being protected there. Rebel forces are now closing in on Sirte, and there may be a very bloody battle there. But even apart from all this, Generational Dynamics theory says that the tribal wars of the 1930s are going to be repeated. Even if the older generations are advising against it, the younger generations will remember the bits and pieces of the bloody violence of the 1930s, and will act upon it, as young people do. <#inc ww2010.pic g110825b.jpg right "" "Condoleezza Rice at 2008 Glamour Magazine awards"#> An interesting angle to this situation is the assessment of international winners and losers. Germany, Russia and China all supported Gaddafi until the very end, and so they're likely to be cut out of commercial deals under the new government. France, Britain and the United States all supported the Libyan action, so they're likely to come out winners. But don't declare "Mission Accomplished!" just yet. Just as the Iraq war didn't end in 2003, it's likely that the Libya war isn't over yet. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Muammar and Leezza, sittin' in a tree ..." Rebels searching Muammar al-Gaddafi's compound in Tripoli have found a photo album filled with photos of former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Gaddafi reportedly said to al-Jazeera in 2007, "Leezza, Leezza, Leezza ... I love her very much," calling her his "darling black African woman." <#stdurl http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/08/25/qaddafis-crush-condoleezza-rice/ "Fox News"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=914 "26-Aug-11 News -- Fears of tribal violence in Libya grow"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110826 26-Aug-11 World View -- Egyptian activists plan 'million man protest' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110826.head 26-Aug-11 World View -- Egyptian activists plan 'million man protest' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110826.keys Generational Dynamics, Ben Bernanke, Egypt, Israel, Camp David agreement, Greece, haircut, Iraq, Syria, Dick Cheney, Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev, China, Gary Locke =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110826.loc ww2010.weblog.log1108 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110826.date 26-Aug-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110826.txt1 Greece has yet to describe debt swap plan for bailout =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110826.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Traders await Bernanke's Friday speech, following Perry's slam" <#inc ww2010.pic g110825c.jpg right "" "Ben Bernanke"#> Stock market traders this week have been wild with anxiety over what Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is going to talk about in the speech that he'll give on Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. In last year's speech, he hinted at more quantitative easing, triggering a 28% rally on Wall Street. When this was being discussed on Tuesday, I honestly thought that some of the anchors on Bloomberg TV were going to burst out into song, as they sported the broadest of grins and joyously reported the rally in Wall Street stocks. Matt Miller gushed that he wished there could be an earthquake every day, if that's what it took to push the stock market up. However, the excitement wore off and stocks were down again by Thursday, as traders realized that Bernanke is unlikely to announce any new quantitative easing program. That was true anyway, but the recent accusation by Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry that quantitative easing is "treasonous" makes any QE attempt subject to accusations that Bernanke is supporting President Obama's reelection. <#stdurl http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/08/25/2375157/all-ears-await-bernanke-speech.html "Miami Herald"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Egyptian activists plan 'million man protest' on Friday" Remarkably, Israel has not been a part of the "Arab revolutions" that have spread around the Mideast since January, but with national elections coming up soon in Egypt, Egyptian activists are demanding that the government reevaluate the Camp David agreement with Israel. The demands were triggered by the deaths of five Egyptians in the aftermath of last week's terrorist attack in southern Israel. Activists are planning a "million man protest" on Friday, but the planned demonstrations have split the activist groups, many of whom do not wish to participate. <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/egyptian-to-hold-million-man-protest-against-peace-accord-with-israel-1.380723 "Haaretz"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece has yet to describe debt swap plan for bailout" A crucial part of the plan for the second bailout of Greece is that banks be forced to take a "voluntary" haircut of 21% on their existing holdings of Greek bonds. As we reported, the 21% figure is based on unrealistic assumptions, and may be much higher. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110724 ""24-Jul-11 World View -- Mauldin: Greece's bond 'haircuts' are at 75-80%.""#>) However, Greece has yet to send out a detailed plan for the bond swap, suggesting that there are problems with coming up with a plan that won't be ridiculed by almost every analyst in the world. <#stdurl http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0825/breaking42.html "Irish Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iraqi refugees in Syria now under attack from Assad" At the height of Iraq's sectarian war in 2006, a flood of refugees took their families to Syria and Jordan for safety. However, Bashar al-Assad's bloody regime is now turning its tanks and guns on the civilians in eastern Syria, on the Iraq border. As a result, many refugees are considering returning to Iraq for safety. <#stdurl http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=104884 "Inter-Press Service (IPS)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Dick Cheney wanted to bomb Syrian nuclear reactor in 2007" In June, 2007, Vice President Dick Cheney urged President George W. Bush to bomb Syria's suspected nuclear reactor site, according to leaked passages from Cheney's new memoir. "I again made the case for U.S. military action against the reactor. But I was a lone voice. After I finished, the president asked, 'Does anyone here agree with the vice president?' Not a single hand went up around the room." As it turned out, the Israeli Air Force bombed the site in September of the same year. <#stdurl http://www.jta.org/news/article/2011/08/25/3089121/cheney-i-wanted-to-bomb-syria-in-2007 "Jewish Telegraphic Agency"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Putin increases lead over Medvedev in public opinion polls" As the March 2012 presidential election approaches, public approval President Dmitry Medvedev fell in August to its lowest level since he took office, while the approval of Prime Minister Vladimin Putin has held steady. But both of their ratings would be the envy of American politicians. Medvedev's approval rating fell to 63% in August from 66% in July, while Putin's rating was steady at 68%. <#stdurl http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/poll-shows-approval-for-medvedev-at-low/442693.html "Moscow Times"#> Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev will probably wait until December to reveal which of them will run for president in 2012. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-22/putin-medvedev-said-to-make-2012-announcement-in-december.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "New U.S. ambassador to China receives vitriolic attacks" Gary Locke is the first Chinese-American to be appointed as American ambassador to China, and this has generated an enormous amount of public interest, especially in the question: Is he more Chinese or more American? Upon arriving in Beijing, he said that "[he is] a child of Chinese immigrants representing America, the land of my birth, and the American values my family holds dear. [I and my family] all personally represent America and America's promise as a land of freedom, equality and opportunity. And it is that enduring promise and those values that I will represent in my official capacity serving the president and the American people as the United States ambassador to China." This was met by overwhelming public disapproval, many with vitriolic personal attacks, accusing the new ambassador of being a "Chinese traitor," "shameless showman," and part of a "carefully designed plot with ulterior motives." <#stdurl http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/aug/17/inside-china-904847644/?page=all "Washington Times"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=914 "26-Aug-11 News -- Fears of tribal violence in Libya grow"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110825 25-Aug-11 World View -- Euro crisis regains the spotlight =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110825.head 25-Aug-11 World View -- Euro crisis regains the spotlight =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110825.keys Generational Dynamics, euro Greece, Finland, Moody's, Alan Greenspan, Austria, Japan, Germany, Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Tripoli, Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, Sirte, Glenn Beck, Israel =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110825.loc ww2010.weblog.log1108 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110825.date 25-Aug-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110825.txt1 Glenn Beck rally in Jerusalem stirs controversy =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110825.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. * Greek bonds crashing again as euro crisis regains the spotlight
"We've had experience with bailouts within Germany. Bavaria, a strong state, has to pay for weaker states like Berlin or Breman. It's not working in Germany. It always takes pressure away from states to cut deficits and spending for social things, for things that are popular. In Bavaria, people have to pay for things in Breman or Berlin, and that's not right because it takes off the pain, takes off the pressure that's necessary to have a balanced budget."<#stdurl http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/worldservice/wbnews/wbnews_20110819-1757a.mp3 "BBC World Business (mp3 - around 8:20)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Columnist Abdullah Bozkurt: Syria's fate depends on Turkey" Turkey has reached a point of no return with the Syrian authoritarian leadership, with US and European leaders now openly asking for the departure of President Bashar al-Assad. It is a shame that Assad brushed aside all the achievements he has helped Syria gain over the last decade, saving the country from isolation and from being an international pariah to become a country eager to implement reforms such as impressive economic undertakings. Now it all has gone down the tube thanks to the oppressive mentality of the powerful inner circle Assad leads, with quite a push from the Iranian leadership. Assad must appreciate the fact that Turkey has never played on majority Sunni fears in Syria and kept pretty much silent on increasing Iranian activities in the country. It did not allow him to be a proxy in the undeclared war between Sunni Arab countries and Shiite regimes in the Middle East. But this may change if Turkey, a Sunni majority country, is pushed into a corner. <#stdurl http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist-254309-departure-of-assad-and-turkeys-role.html "Zaman"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey plans expanded military garrisons in northern Iraq" The outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), based in northern Iraq, has been conducting terrorist attacks in Turkey since the 1980s. There have been several agreed ceasefires, but the latest one ended in February, and dozens of Turkey's soldiers have been killed or wounded by PKK terrorists since then. Turkey's warplanes have participated in in aerial raids against PKK hideouts in northern Iraq this week. Turkey already maintains 2500 troops in intelligence gathering outposts in Northern Iraq and they were deployed in 1995 with the permission of the Kurdish regional government. Now word has leaked that Turkey plans to turn the outposts into operational front garrisons to support major operations against PKK terrorists. <#stdurl http://www.todayszaman.com/news-254320-turkey-to-boost-its-troop-presence-in-northern-iraq.html "Zaman"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey's Erdogan visits Somalia to increase influence in Africa" Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan became the first major Western leader in decades to visit Somalia, a country wracked by war and famine. The visit was designed to demonstrate Turkey's readiness to help victims of a devastating famine, but also to showcase Turkey's ambition to become a major political and economic player in Africa. Erdogan was accompanied by his wife Emine and three of his four children, as well as Ahmet Davutoglu, his foreign minister, who is scheduled to tour South Africa and Ethiopia after leaving Somalia. Erdogan has focused during the last decade on expanding Turkey's influence in the Arab world, and now he's turning to expanding Turkey's influence in Africa. <#stdurl http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/africa/erdogan-goes-to-somalia-to-help-victims-and-turkeys-image "The National (UAE)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Taliban terrorists kill 9 in attack on Britain's cultural center in Afghanistan" <#inc ww2010.pic g110819c.jpg right "" "Smoke billows from British Council in Kabul on Friday (Reuters)"#> The Taliban are claiming responsibility for a suicide bombing attack on Britain's cultural center on Friday, in Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan. At least nine people were killed in the assault, which took place on the 92nd anniversary of Afghanistan's independence from Britain. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/south/Militants-Storm-British-Council-in-Afghan-Capital-in-Deadly-Attack-128069038.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Teen suicide bomber kills 55 in Pakistan's tribal area" Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Pakistan Taliban, are suspected as perpetrators of a horrific attack by a teenage suicide bomber in Pakistan's tribal area. The attack took place in a mosque attended by more than 400 people during Friday prayers. 55 people were killed and more than 117 others were killed, after the roof of the mosque caved in. <#stdurl http://nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Politics/20-Aug-2011/Bomber-kills-53-at-Jamrud-mosque "Nation (Pakistan)"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=906 "20-Aug-11 World View -- Gaza-Israel violence escalates again"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110819 19-Aug-11 World View -- Global markets plunge on bad economic news =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110819.head 19-Aug-11 World View -- Global markets plunge on bad economic news =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110819.keys Generational Dynamics, Israel, Eilat, Gaza, Sinai, Egypt, Bashar al-Assad, Syria, Karachi, Pakistan, credit freeze, Philly Fed, home sales, Wall Street, Asian stocks, Georgetown basketball, Bayi Military Rockets, China =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110819.loc ww2010.weblog.log1108 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110819.date 19-Aug-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110819.txt1 Israel strikes Gaza targets, after terrorist attack on southern Israel =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110819.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel strikes Gaza targets, after terrorist attack on southern Israel" <#inc ww2010.pic g110818b.jpg right "" "The Sinai is the easternmost region of Egypt, along the border with Israel"#> As we <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110818 "reported yesterday,"#> Egypt's Sinai region has become almost completely lawless since the pro-democracy protests began in January, and the new government withdrew all its security forces from Sinai. Egypt has recently been returning its army to the Sinai, but not soon enough. On Thursday, terrorists, thought to have come from the Gaza Strip, killed at least eight Israelis and wounded as many as 40 others in multiple coordinated attacks on public buses and private cars just north of the Red Sea tourist town of Eilat. Two of the dead were reported as a four year old and a six year old. A Hamas official said that Hamas was not behind the attacks, but he praised the attacks anyway. <#stdurl http://www.theisraelproject.org/site/apps/nlnet/content2.aspx?c=hsJPK0PIJpH&b=689705&ct=11177845 "Israel Project"#> The Israeli military carried out air strikes over the Gaza Strip, targeting those it blamed for a series of deadly attacks in southern Israel. At least six people, including a senior militant, were killed in the air strikes. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14577593 "BBC"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "West Urges Syria's Assad to Step Down" The United States, European Union and other world powers are calling for the resignation of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad because of his continued bloody massacre of innocent civilians. However, I did not hear or read one person who claimed that this action would cause Assad to do anything different. Turkey did not participate in the announcement. The U.S. already has economic sanctions in place for Syria, and the Europeans plan to push for Syrian sanctions in the United Nations Security Council. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Europeans-to-Push-for-Syrian-Sanctions-in-UN-Security-Council--128044768.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Karachi Pakistan in a daze after another 30 killed in ethnic violence" <#inc ww2010.pic g110818c.jpg right "" "Funeral of three people killed on Thursday (PPI)"#> The port city of Karachi, Pakistan, is in a state of constant fear after two days of ethnic violence in which 50 people were killed. In at least 21 cases, a person was kidnapped, tortured for several hours, killed with multiple gunshots, stuffed into a gunny bag, and dumped at a random place. <#stdurl http://www.dawn.com/2011/08/19/city-in-a-daze-after-another-30-killed.html "Dawn (Karachi)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Banks fear a new credit freeze" When the "credit crunch" began late in 2007, it meant that it had become impossible for one bank to lend money to another (See my 2007 article, <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e071111 ""Markets fall as torrents of CDO exposures bolster fears of new credit crunch.""#>) Now, the burgeoning European credit crisis is motivating the Fed to scrutinize the assets of European banks with offices in the U.S. This has caused concerns among bankers that this will trigger a new credit crunch like the one in 2007. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/18/us-markets-money-idUSTRE77H51X20110818 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Analysts stunned by freefall of Philadelphia Fed factory index" The Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey index fell to -30.7 in August from +3.2 in July. A positive index indicates growth, and analysts were expecting a reading of +0.5. Instead, the enormous decline stunned analysts, and indicated a rapidly weakening economy. Another early look at manufacturing in August, the New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing survey, was also weak. The survey fell to a reading of negative 7.7, the third straight negative monthly reading. <#stdurl http://www.marketwatch.com/story/philly-feds-factory-index-in-august-freefall-2011-08-18 "MarketWatch"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Previously occupied home sales fall unexpectedly" The number of people who bought previously occupied homes fell in July for the third time in four months. This year is on pace to be the worst in 14 years for home sales, as more Americans worry that the economy could slip back into another recession. Home sales fell 3.5 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.67 million homes, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. That's far below the 6 million that economists say must be sold to sustain a healthy housing market. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j5YfyhaBqdegA46f0AcxUMjTs-gw?docId=41a74d4692a74e3aa3419da9e0a27f35 "Associated Press"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Wall Street stocks fall 4-5% after a slew of bad economic news" Many commentators were "shocked" by Thursday's stock market plunge of 4-5% for Wall Street stocks, and some blamed a note from Morgan Stanley saying that the U.S. and Europe "dangerously close to recession" because of unsatisfactory responses from policymakers. As I've explained in the past, analysts had been predicting a huge recovery in last half of this year, including vastly bloated earnings predictions. A recession would mean that the bloated earnings predictions are wrong, and that stock valuations are much higher than usual, meaning that stock prices are high, and it's time to sell. The Morgan Stanley report was followed by a slew of bad economic news, including a negative Philadelphia Fed manufacturing report, and a fall in home sales. Stocks also fell sharply in Europe. <#stdurl http://www.thestreet.com/story/11224175/1/stock-market-story-aug-18.html "The Street"#> From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a full-fledged panic and crash is coming with certainty, either now or before too long. This is being debated in the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2&p=9656&#p9646 "Generational Dynamics forum."#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Asian stocks sink on fears of U.S. recession" As of this writing on Thursday evening (Friday morning in Asia), stock markets in Asia open sharply lower amid signs of a possible U.S. recession and renewed worries over the financial health of Europe's banks. Also Wall Street futures are sharply lower, suggesting a lower opening on Friday morning. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jUr20eOZ-PTBsdJEgHyly7Rfa-wg?docId=bde2accb32d944aca5e92238d08771a9 "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Georgetown basketball exhibition game in China ends in brawl" <#inc ww2010.pic g110818d.jpg right "" "Basketball brawl"#> What began as a goodwill trip to China for the Georgetown men’s basketball team turned violent Thursday night when its exhibition game against a Chinese professional club deteriorated into a benches-clearing melee in which players exchanged blows, chairs were thrown and spectators tossed full water bottles at Hoyas players and coaches as they headed to the locker room. The American team returned to the locker room with 9 minutes 32 seconds left in the game and the scored tied at 64 after a chaotic scene in which members of the Georgetown and Bayi Military Rockets teams began swinging wildly and tackling one another. <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/colleges/fight-ends-georgetown-basketball-exhibition-in-china/2011/08/18/gIQAs1zeNJ_story.html?hpid=z2 "Washington Post"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=905 "19-Aug-11 World View -- Global markets plunge on bad economic news"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110818 18-Aug-11 World View -- Turkey backs off on threat to Syria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110818.head 18-Aug-11 World View -- Turkey backs off on threat to Syria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110818.keys Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Sinai, Bedouins, al-Qaeda, Israel, Turkey, Hamas, Syria, Ahmet Davutoglu, Latakia, Benjamin Netanyahu, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy, Switzerland, Swiss franc, Germany, France =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110818.loc ww2010.weblog.log1108 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110818.date 18-Aug-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110818.txt1 Syria threatens family members of Syrian-Americans =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110818.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "2,000 Egyptian troops take on al-Qaeda in the Sinai" <#inc ww2010.pic g110817c.jpg right "" "Flames rise over gas pipeline targeted by Bedouin militants"#> When Egypt's pro-democracy protests began in January, they were relatively peaceful in Cairo, but the one area of Egypt that appeared ready to explode into violence was the Sinai, the region adjacent to Israel where major battles were fought in the 1967 Six-Day War and the 1973 Yom Kippur War between Israel and Arab states. Under the 1979 Camp David peace agreement between Israel and Egypt, Egyptian forces must stay out of the Sinai region. The result is that movements sympathetic to al-Qaeda are forming in the Sinai, especially since January, when Egyptian security forces withdrew in confusion, leaving the region lawless. With an increase in terrorist acts in the Sinai, Egypt sent 2,000 troops back to attempt to police the region, but they're largely unarmed because of the 1979 agreement. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38332&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=e7febdaa0aa09f351c578962ec81b1ba "Jamestown"#> and <#stdurl http://debka.com/article/21209/ "Debka"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey backs off on threat to Syria" A statement by Turkey's foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu appears to back off from previous implied military threats to Syria if Syria does not stop the massacre of innocent civilians. In a press conference on Tuesday, he said,
"If the operations continue in Syria and the operations become a regional problem, Turkey can naturally not remain indifferent. We believe that Syria would make a very big contribution to the stability of the region if it goes through a peaceful transformation. However, for this to happen bloodshed must stop and reforms must be enacted. The sufferings in many cities in Ramadan should end. There are many important common efforts that can be exerted by Turkey and Jordan to form a regional sensitivity because they are both immediate neighbors of Syria. Our consultations will continue and intensify, and we will try to make progress on the issue of a regional stance."Davutoglu was asked about news reports that Turkey's army might enter Syria to create a buffer zone on Syrian soil. He said that there were no such plans: "We're talking about a border that is 900 kilometers long. We cannot talk about such a development right now." However, there was one breathtaking threat described by the article: Sources say it is still too early to call on Assad to step down, but underline that patience is running out fast, meaning that Ankara may finally call for his departure soon. Whew! <#stdurl http://www.todayszaman.com/news-254088-turkey-seeks-regional-stance-vis-à-vis-syria.html "Zaman"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Hamas deeply embarrassed by Syria's assault on Palestinians" <#inc ww2010.pic g110817b.jpg right "" "Palestinian girl in Ramallah holds poster depicting Assad with a red 'X' across his face. (Reuters)"#> Ordinary Palestinians in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip have been extremely and openly critical of the massacre of innocent civilians in Syria, especially after last weekend's bloody assault on Palestinians in a refugee camp in Latakia. However, Hamas, the governing authority in the Gaza Strip, has its headquarters and numerous backers in Damascus. Thus Hamas' leaders have refused to say anything about the violence against Palestinians, and have moved to prevent public demonstrations against Syria in Gaza. Thus, rumors are growing that Hamas may move its heaquarters to Qatar, Turkey or Sudan. (Egypt has refused to allow the group to open an office in Cairo.) <#stdurl http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation-world/sns-rt-palestinians-syriahamasl5e7jh020110817,0,122996.story "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria threatens family members of Syrian-Americans" U.S. officials are accusing Syrian diplomats in Washington of tracking and photographic anti-regime activists in the United States, and sending the reports back home. Several Syrian-Americans say that as a result of their activities in the U.S., family members have been interrogated, threatened or arrested in Syria. One Syrian scientist visited the U.S., and then was tortured to get the names of anyone he might have met with, and was then killed. Syrian diplomats are pursuing similar activities in countries around the world, blaming activists as being "Zionist conspirators." <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904823804576504260399843094.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel firm on not apologizing to Turkey" Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Wednesday that Israel will not apologize to Turkey for the deaths of nine Turkish citizens last year in May during the confrontation between Israel's Defense Forces (IDF) and the "Freedom Flotilla" that had been dispatched to break Israel's sea blockade on Gaza. Later on Wednesay, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said it would be impossible for Turkish-Israeli ties to improve unless Israel apologised and paid compensation for the killing of the nine Turks. <#stdurl http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4109923,00.html "Ynet"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Widespread disappointment over Sarkozy-Merkel meeting" Tuesday's meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy had been hyped by people claiming that it would solve the European debt crisis. Instead, it produced nothing but vague words, according to most commentators. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,780714,00.html "Der Spiegel"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Switzerland continues desperate attempt to inflate the franc" The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been flooding the currency markets with huge amounts of liquidity -- 200 billion Swiss francs ($253 billion) -- in an attempt to deflate the <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110814 ""massively overvalued""#> currency. However, currency investors aren't cooperating, and they're pouring money into Swiss currency as a "safe haven" against a euro currency beset by the massive debt crisis. The result is that the Swiss franc continues to surge against the euro and the U.S. dollar. However, some people are benefiting. Swiss tourists are flooding across the border into Germany and using their expensive francs to purchase volumes of German good priced in relatively weak euros. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-17/switzerland-increases-efforts-to-weaken-franc-with-flood-of-bank-liquidity.html "Bloomberg"#> and <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,780774,00.html#ref=nlint "Spiegel"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=904 "18-Aug-11 World View -- Turkey backs off on threat to Syria"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110817b 17-Aug-11 News -- New GDP reports put European economy at near standstill =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110817b.head 17-Aug-11 News -- New GDP reports put European economy at near standstill =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110817b.keys Generational Dynamics, Europe, economy, GDP, Germany, France, Nicolas Sarkozy, Angela Merkel =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110817b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1108 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110817b.date 17-Aug-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110817b.txt1 Sarkozy and Merkel reject euro bonds =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110817b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "New GDP reports put European economy at near standstill" <#inc ww2010.pic g110816.gif center "" "Sarko and Merkel discuss euro bonds (PressEurop)"#> The momentum with which the German economy started into 2011 has slowed down considerably, according to <#stdurl http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/press/pr/2011/08/PE11__297__811,templateId=renderPrint.psml "Germany's Federal Statistical Office (Destatis)"#>. In the second quarter of 2011, the gross domestic product (GDP) rose just 0.1% on the first quarter, after the result for the first quarter was corrected downwards to +1.3%. However, imports in the second quarter of 2011 rose more strongly than exports.That large increase in imports on the one hand led to higher building of inventories, while on the other hand it resulted in a balance of exports and imports that had an altogether negative impact on economic growth. Also, final consumption expenditure of households and capital formation in construction had a slowdown effect on the German economy in the second quarter of 2011. The figures for Germany were much lower than economists had expected, and French GDP was also stagnant. Figures released later in the day showed that the entire eurozone growth was stagnant. The main reason for the bad eurozone figures was the slowdown in its two largest economies, Germany and France, according to <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,780470,00.html "Spiegel."#> Many on-air commentators talked about what a shock this was, because Europe needed a robust Germany economy to lead the continent out of its debt crisis. As I've reported many times, economists in Europe and America have been counting on a "V-shaped" recovery in the last half of this year, so that the rapid growth would wipe out the staggering debt without any sacrifices. This prediction had been based on 1970s and 1980s macroeconomic models that are no longer valid because the generational constellation has changed. I'd like to quote (paraphrasing) an analyst that I heard on BBC on Tuesday:
"The biggest worry is that the growth in consumption (consumer purchases) is falling. People have suffered a number of shocks that have created a sense of uncertainty, and people are starting to behave in a very careful manner. People are saving money like mad, which is causing the Germany economy to slow down, which will cause the whole of Europe to slow down. No one knows if people will continue to save, and not spend. No one can predict the future."In fact, it IS possible to predict the future in some areas. We're repeating the 1930s, when economists and politicians were predicting that "prosperity is just around the corner," and were proven wrong. People today are becoming increasingly risk averse, just as they did in the 1930s. <#inc ww2010.pic g110816b.gif right "" "Investors are risk averse too (WSJ)"#> This means that consumption is going to continue falling, and there's no hope at all of a "V-shaped recovery." To the contrary, the sharp fall in consumption will result in a deflationary spiral. There won't be any significant growth again until the 2020s, when the new generation of young people reaches teen years and starts nagging their parents for money to spend. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Sarkozy and Merkel offer additional disappointments" Investors had been hoping for one of Europe's famous "shock and awe" announcements, like the various nuclear option bailouts that have been going on for 18 months. In particular, when French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel met in Paris on Tuesday, they were hoping for a big "euro-bond" announcement. Under this scheme, all 17 eurozone countries would jointly issue and guarantee euro bonds, and individual countries would no longer issue national bonds. Instead, Sarkozy and Merkel announced some vague plans for closer eurozone integration, according to <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/16/us-eurozone-idUSL6E7JD02L20110816 "Reuters."#> Sarkozy said, "We have exactly the same position on euro bonds. Euro bonds can be imagined one day, but at the end of the European integration process, not at the beginning." This immediately caused a Wall Street stock slide. The European Central Bank (ECB) has been keeping Spain and Italy from falling off a cliff by purchasing €21 billion in bonds from the two countries at low interest rates. Several commentators indicated that they feared that Spain and Italy are now going to start falling off a cliff again, because the of the disappointing performance of Sarkozy and Merkel. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=900 "17-Aug-11 News -- New GDP reports put European economy at near standstill"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110817 17-Aug-11 World View -- Libya's rebels predict victory 'within the month' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110817.head 17-Aug-11 World View -- Libya's rebels predict victory 'within the month' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110817.keys Generational Dynamics, Russia, Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, Boris Yeltsin, Libya, National Transitional Council, Gaza, Hamas, Fatah, North Korea, South Korea, Yellow Sea drills, China, aircraft carrier, South China Sea, Tajikistan =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110817.loc ww2010.weblog.log1108 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110817.date 17-Aug-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110817.txt1 China's new aircraft carrier vulnerable to attack in South China Sea =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110817.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The failed Russian coup, 20 years later" <#inc ww2010.pic g110816c.jpg right "" "Mikhail Gorbachev returns to Moscow from the Crimea in August, 1991, after attempted coup (Reuters)"#> August 16 is the 20th anniversary of the attempted coup by Soviet hardliners to eliminate President Mikhail Gorbachev and to take control of the government. They put Gorbachev under house arrest in his vacation villa on the Black Sea in the Crimea. All communications were cut off, and no one knew whether he was dead or alive. The hardliners claimed that Gorbachev was ill and there was disorder in various, unspecified parts of the Soviet Union. Gennady Yanaev signed the decree naming himself as acting USSR president on the pretext of Gorbachev’s inability to perform presidential duties due to "illness." The political winner of coup attempt was Boris Yeltsin, because he happened to be at the right place at the right time, and took over when the coup failed. That was the event that signaled the final end of the Soviet Union. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38326&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=564d1c086141e14da9171b2ef0d4ff98 "Jamestown"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Libya's rebels predict victory 'within the month'" Libya's rebel National Transitional Council (NTC) is claiming that their forces now totallt control the town of Zawiya, about 30 miles west of Tripoli, cutting off the major route that was keeping the capital, Tripoli, supplied with food and fuel. The TNC is claiming that the war against Muammar al-Gaddafi had entered a "decisive phase," and that victory is possible within the month (which, I assume, means in the next two weeks). <#stdurl http://tripolipost.com/articledetail.asp?c=1&i=6675 "Tripoli Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.S. restores funding to aid groups in Gaza" The U.S. has restored funding to international aid groups in the Gaza Strip, after Hamas rulers backed down from a demand from one of the groups to turn over its books for auditing and to allow Hamas officials to search its offices. Aid groups have refused to allow the audit from concern that Hamas would try to control its activities. Hamas is listed as a terror organization by the US and EU. A Hamas official said that they backed down from the demand to audit the International Medical Corps., but said that the organization had agreed to independent auditing. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jBPct5tcO0uXQnLTlQtvkvDqVg-g?docId=52ab91f2335e4158a76f23c369aa4d98 "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Hamas claims that Fatah is violating their reconciliation agreement" Hamas today accused Fatah of going back on previous agreements between the two political groups and violating the reconciliation deal that had been signed in Cairo earlier this year. The accusation concerns a detail involving voter registration. Future elections will determine which organization is in control of the unity government. <#stdurl http://english.pnn.ps/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10591&Itemid=61 "Palestine News Network"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "North Korean slams joint U.S-S. Korea Yellow Sea naval drills" Tens of thousands of American and South Korean military personnel are taking part in joint military drills that began on Tuesday in the Yellow Sea. The exercises will last for 10 days. The U.S. calls the exercises routine and defense-oriented because they're aimed at simulating the destroying of North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction. peaking through its official media, Pyongyang has urged Seoul and Washington to call off the drills, saying they increase the likelihood of nuclear war. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/US-South-Korea-Begin-Joint-Military-Drill-127815718.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China's new aircraft carrier vulnerable to attack in South China Sea" China's new aircraft carrier has returned to port after completing its initial sea trials. The carrier is hugely popular in China, where it is being touted as a symbol of the country's ascent to great-power status. Ardent online fans have already christened the vessel Shi-Lang, after the 17th century Taiwan-conquering admiral. The carrier would seem to decisively shift the palance of power in the South China Sea, where China has territorial disputes with Vietnam, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei. However, the carrier would be extremely vulnerable in those waters, because it has inadequate protection against incoming missiles. <#stdurl http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/MH17Ad02.html "Asia Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia moves to return border guards to Tajik-Afghanistan border" Russia has been pressing Tajikistan hard to allow the return of Russian border guards to the border between Tajikistan and Afghanistan. Russian officials are genuinely concerned about the impact of Afghan narcotics, most of which are smuggled into the country through Central Asia. An estimated 130,000 people in Russia die each year from heroin overdoses and drug-related crime. Last year, Russia’s anti-narcotics chief, Viktor Ivanov, suggested that about 60 percent of Russia-bound Afghan heroin is smuggled through Tajikistan, which needs support in fighting drug trafficking through its borders. However, Tajikistan is balking at giving up its sovereignty to allow the Russian border guards. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38330&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=0bcdef813cdd5caaa9ea7f06fc78baf1 "Jamestown"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=900 "17-Aug-11 News -- New GDP reports put European economy at near standstill"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110816b 16-Aug-11 News -- Turkey threatens Syria, as military attacks Palestinian refugee camp =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110816b.head 16-Aug-11 News -- Turkey threatens Syria, as military attacks Palestinian refugee camp =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110816b.keys Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Syria, Alawite, Latakia, refugee camp, Ahmet Davutoglu, Iran, Bashar al-Assad =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110816b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1108 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110816b.date 16-Aug-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110816b.txt1 Turkey issues very harsh, strongly worded implied threat to Syria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110816b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey threatens Syria, as military attacks Palestinian refugee camp" The U.S. State Dept. has called "abhorrent and repulsive" the massive new military assault by the army and navy of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad on the port city of Latakia, according <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/US-Syria-Crackdown-on-Dissent-is-Abhorrent-Repulsive-127787523.html "VOA."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110815.jpg center "" "Latakia's Ramleh district is pummeled with tank, gunboat and automatic weapons fire. (AFP)"#> Assad's forces have avoided the neighborhoods of Assad's Alawite sect, and instead have been targeting Sunni Muslim neighborhood, including a large Palestinian refugee camp in Latakia's al-Ramel district. Five to ten thousand refugees were forced to flee, and their whereabouts are unknown, according to the <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14533967 "BBC."#> Newspapers in the region have expressed anger about Arab states' failure to respond to events in Syria. Another report indicates that Assad's security forces began ordering residents of the Ramleh region, which includes a refugee camp housing more than 10,000 Palestinians, to go to a soccer stadium ahead of what they described as a huge military operation. After the people were herded into the stadium, security forces took away their identification cards and cellphones. At least five people were confirmed dead, according to the <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-syria-latakia-20110816,0,6681337.story "LA Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey issues very harsh, strongly worded implied threat to Syria" Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has issued a stark warning to Syrian authorities to immediately halt military operations across the country or he said there will be nothing left to talk about the steps that would be taken in support of the Syrian people, according to <#stdurl http://www.todayszaman.com/news-253879-turkey-nothing-left-to-talk-about-if-syria-fails-to-halt-operations.html "Zaman"#>:
"If these operations do not stop there will be nothing left to say about the steps that would be taken. This is our final word to the Syrian authorities, our first expectation is that these operations stop immediately and unconditionally. In the context of human rights this cannot be seen as a domestic issue."The last sentence is important because it establishes a justification for Turkish military action. Davutoglu was essentially repeating what he said a week ago in connection with his visit to Syria on Tuesday. However, he did not specify what action Turkey would take if the attacks continue, and he stopped short of calling for Assad to step down, which is a demand of Syria's pro-democracy activists. In the past few weeks, we've seen unconfirmed reports that (1) Turkey is talking about a military action to establish a buffer zone on Syrian soil, (2) Iran is threatening retaliation with missiles on Turkey, if such an action occurs, and (3) American assets in the Mediterranean and on bases in the region will be used to protect Turkey from the Iranian missiles. On Sunday, <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110814 "we quoted"#> an unconfirmed report that this US-Turkish military operation would begin on August 27 if the slaughter hasn't stopped. This is speculative, of course, but what isn't speculative is that not only is the slaughter of civilians not ending, but in fact Assad seems to be getting more violent and bloody every day, which could well force the hand of even a reluctant Turkey. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=899 "16-Aug-11 News -- Turkey threatens Syria, as military attacks Palestinian refugee camp"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110816 16-Aug-11 World View -- Korea criticizes Japan on Liberation Day =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110816.head 16-Aug-11 World View -- Korea criticizes Japan on Liberation Day =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110816.keys Generational Dynamics, South Korea, Lee Myung-bak, Liberation Day, Dokdo islands, Takeshima islands, Italy, Spain, bailouts, European Central Bank, ECB, Germany, Angela Merkel, Somalia, famine =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110816.loc ww2010.weblog.log1108 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110816.date 16-Aug-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110816.txt1 Euro crisis continues as 'euro bond' proposal stirs debate =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110816.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Korea stirs nationalism over Dokdo/Takeshima islands on Liberation Day" <#inc ww2010.pic g110815b.jpg right "" "Lee Myung-bak and first lady, Kim Yoon-ok (center) wave Korean flags on Liberation Day (Yonhap)"#> South Korea's president Lee Myung-bak was harshly critical of Japan in his Liberation Day speech on Monday, at a time when Korea-Japan relations are at a low ebb. Liberation Day commemorates the end of Japan's colonial rule of Korea from 1905-1945. Lee was particularly critical of Japan's approval of new textbooks that claim Japanese sovereignty over two small islands between the two countries, known as the Dokdo islands to the Koreans, and the Takeshima islands to the Japanese. According to Lee,
"Japan has a responsibility to teach its young generation the truth about what happened in the past. By doing so, we can then allow young people in Korea and Japan to forge ahead into the new era with a correct recognition and understanding of history. This kind of cooperation will greatly contribute to the peace and prosperity of the world as well as Northeast Asia. [The pain and suffering inflicted by the Japanese would be something that Koreans would never forget.] For the sake of the future relationship, Korea will not be bound by the unfortunate past. But at the same time, the Korean people can never forget the history of the recent past altogether."<#stdurl http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2940260 "JoongAng (Seoul)"#> Here's a pretty interesting video that describes the situation:
[youtube DKMS-4Fy7sQ nolink]
<#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/video/asia-pacific/2011/08/201181552013544834.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Euro crisis continues as 'euro bond' proposal stirs debate" It was revealed that, in order to keep Italy and Spain from being dragged into a sovereign debt crisis, the European Central Bank (ECB) last week bailed out the two countries and broke all previous records by purchasing €22 billion in bonds from the two countries. The ECB has been harshly criticized for waiting too long to bail out Greece, Ireland and Portugal, and apparently they're taking the criticism to heart by pursuing an early and enormous bond purchase program. <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/aug/15/european-central-bank-bonds "Guardian"#> Many analysts are saying that there's only one way left to save the euro -- by issuing "euro bonds." Instead of having each of the 17 eurozone countries issue its own bonds, the countries would jointly issue and guarantee euro bonds that represent the entire eurozone. (This seems to me like another total fantasy -- or worse -- being perpetrated by EU politicians. If Italy and Spain and the euro could be saved by issuing euro bonds, then Italy and Spain and the euro could be saved by the ECB purchasing country bonds, which is what they're doing now. This is another example of politicians thinking the rhetoric and appearances will trump fundamentals.) <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-08-15/on-euro-bonds-europe-s-politicians-lag-behind-the-market-view.html "Bloomberg"#> The German government is saying publicly that it is adamantly opposed to the "euro bond" idea, because they would "take away the pressure to save" from debt-laden states. However, there are some mixed messages coming from Berlin that some politicians, especially Angela Merkel's political opponents, are ready to accept the euro bond idea. <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ae3157c0-c754-11e0-9cac-00144feabdc0.html "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.N. says Somalia food aid is being stolen, fueling civil war" <#inc ww2010.pic g110815c.jpg right "" "A group of internally displaced people crowd underneath a partially destroyed building in Mogadishu on Sunday (AFP)"#> With nearly 3.2 million people in Somalia facing starvation, it's to be expected that some food aid pouring into Somalia might go missing. But the sheer scale of the theft taking place calls into question aid groups’ ability to reach the starving. It also raises concerns about the willingness of aid agencies and the Somali government to fight corruption, and whether diverted aid is fueling Somalia’s 20-year-old civil war. <#stdurl http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/aug/15/un-says-food-aid-stolen-from-famished/ "Associated Press"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=899 "16-Aug-11 News -- Turkey threatens Syria, as military attacks Palestinian refugee camp"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110815 15-Aug-11 World View -- Libya's rebel forces deliver crucial blow to Gaddafi's regime =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110815.head 15-Aug-11 World View -- Libya's rebel forces deliver crucial blow to Gaddafi's regime =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110815.keys Generational Dynamics, Syria, Latakia, Bashar al-Assad, Libya, Zawiya, Abdel Fatah Younis, Obeidi tribe, China, Benghazi, Nicolas Sarkozy, Angela Merkel, euro bonds =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110815.loc ww2010.weblog.log1108 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110815.date 15-Aug-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110815.txt1 Merkel and Sarkozy to meet Monday for make-or-break euro crisis talks =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110815.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria's regime shells Latakia civilians by land and by sea" <#inc ww2010.pic g110814b.jpg right "" "Syria"#> Now that Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has turned to the port city of Latakia as a target, he's massacring unarmed civilians by land and by sea. In a major escalation, Syria's navy turned its gunboats on random civilian neighborhoods of Latakia, while army tanks blasted neighborhoods from the other directions. Latakia is a key strategic asset, as we <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110814 "reported"#> yesterday, because Iran has agreed to fund a military base at the city's airport to facilitate arms deliveries. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8700810/Syrias-navy-shells-port-town-of-Latakia.html "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Libya's rebel forces deliver crucial blow to Gaddafi's regime" In a major strategic victory, Libya's rebel forces took control of the town of Zawiya, about 50 km (30 miles) west of Tripoli, cutting off the major route that was keeping the capital, Tripoli, supplied with food and fuel. But rebel forces are now in their strongest position since the uprising against four decades of Gaddafi's rule began in February. They now control the coast both east and west of Tripoli. To the north of the capital is the Mediterranean and a Nato naval blockade, while to the south is empty desert. However, a Gaddafi spokesman denied that Zawiya was held by the rebels, saying it was "under our full control." <#stdurl http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2011/0815/1224302449600.html "Irish Times"#> Late Sunday evening, sources reported that representatives of Libya's rebels were holding negotiations with representatives of Muammar Gaddafi's government. The talks are being held in a hotel on the Tunisian island of Djerba near the border with Libya. <#stdurl http://af.reuters.com/article/libyaNews/idAFLDE77D08420110814 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Libya's tribes may turn against one another" The assassination of the Libyan rebels' army commander, Abdel Fatah Younis, that we <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110729 "reported"#> two weeks ago, is exposing important fault lines among rebel factions and tribes. In particular, Younis was a member of the Obeidi tribe, who are now threatening retaliation. The tribes are all united now in the fight against Muammar Gaddafi's forces, but the fear is that once Gaddafi is defeated, the tribes will begin to turn against each other. Since Libya is in a generational Crisis era, this would not be a surprise. If the rebel forces win, it will turn out to be particularly dangerous to have been a member of a tribe that supported Gaddafi during the current war. <#stdurl http://www.smh.com.au/world/libya-rebel-feuds-threaten-gaddafi-mission-20110814-1isz8.html "NY Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China seeks to return to abandoned projects in Banghazi, Libya" When war broke out almost six months ago, China evacuated its workers from Libya, leaving behind many unfinished construction projects. Once one of Muammar Gaddafi's closest supporters, China is now shifting its stance, and warming relations with the rebel National Transitional Council. <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6ab4fff0-c3fe-11e0-b302-00144feabdc0.html "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Merkel and Sarkozy to meet Monday for make-or-break euro crisis talks" After last week's stock market roller coaster ride, fueled by a possible French banking crisis, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel will meet in Paris on Monday for what is being billed a make or break summit for the euro. With Greece, Ireland, and Portugal in bailout mode, and questions about a bailout of Italy floating in the air, Sarkozy and Merkel are said to be considering "euro bonds." Unlike bonds issued by individual countries, "euro bonds" would be backed by the entire euro zone. By this means, the "virtuous countries" like Germany can continue to bail out the "profligate countries," like Greece. <#stdurl http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2026056/Angela-Merkel-Nicolas-Sarkozy-make-break-talks-euro.html "Daily Mail"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=896 "15-Aug-11 World View -- Libya's rebel forces deliver crucial blow to Gaddafi's regime"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110814 14-Aug-11 World View -- Syria's Assad asks for 15 more days to slaughter civilians =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110814.head 14-Aug-11 World View -- Syria's Assad asks for 15 more days to slaughter civilians =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110814.keys Generational Dynamics, Carpet Right building, Tottenham, London, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah, Latakia, Iran, Libya, Palestinian Authority, Caribbean, United Nations, Riyad Malki, Pakistan, Switzerland, Swiss franc =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110814.loc ww2010.weblog.log1108 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110814.date 14-Aug-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110814.txt1 Desperate Swiss try to devalue the Swiss franc =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110814.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "London residents wonder why their homes and businesses were destroyed" <#inc ww2010.pic g110813b.jpg right "" "The flaming Carpet Right building in Tottenham has become the horrible iconic picture of last week's London riots"#> Every explanation for last week's UK riots seems unsatisfactory, designed to conform to an ideology or a theory. "I hear social deprivation blamed, yet there are other poor areas of the country that didn't riot. Others blame atheism and the lack of morality. Yet I have never lived in a community in London where so many of my neighbours go to church. Even the simplest explanation of Conservative ministers that it is simply 'criminality' is meaningless." <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/aug/13/tottenham-riots-youth-hackney-haringey "Guardian"#> I make a connection between the nihilism of the rioters, who destroyed people's lives for the enjoyment of it, with the nihilism of the Gen-X financial engineers who knowingly created some $50 trillion of fraudulent artificial securities that are still sitting in bank portfolios, waiting to implode. I realize that the rioters were young, and were not Gen-Xers, so there is still a lot to be understood from a generational point of view. Both the above article and a Reuters article of several days ago emphasize the relationship between the rioters and their parents, with some parents participating in the riots. I also make the connection to the nihilism of the July 7, 2005, London subway bombings, where young people in immigrant communities blew themselves and the subways up, motivated by "altruistic suicide," believing that their parents would be proud of them for committing these acts. The generational connection that needs to be explored is how the nihilism of the Nomad archetype (like Generation X) gets translated into a full scale crisis, perpetrated by the Nomads and their Hero archetype children. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/10/us-britain-riots-hackney-idUSTRE77946F20110810 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria's Assad asks for 15 more days to slaughter civilians" Reports indicate that Syria's president Bashar al-Assad told Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Tuesday that, with a free hand, he would finish off the revolt in 10 to 15 days and then get down to introducing political reforms including free elections with full opposition participation. If he went back on his word, then Obama and Erdogan would talk again about a possible US-Turkish military operation in Syria. They decided to trust Assad "one last time" regardless of his broken promises in the past. So mark your calendar, folks -- the deadline is August 27. <#stdurl http://www.debka.com/article/21205/ "Debka"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "US/Saudi leaders tell Syria's Assad to stop, as his regime smashes into Latakia " The Syrian army's bloody rampage against unarmed civilians is moving on to a new city, Latakia, on the Mediterranean coast in the west. On Saturday, Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah and U.S. President Barack Obama joined in a toothless demand that the Syrian regime "immediately" halt its brutal crackdown on protesters. Obama and Abdullah "expressed their shared, deep concerns about the Syrian government's use of violence against its citizens. They agreed that the Syrian regime's brutal campaign of violence against the Syrian people must end immediately, and to continue close consultations about the situation in the days ahead." <#stdurl http://arabnews.com/middleeast/article488050.ece "Arab News"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iran building a military base in Latakia, western Syria" Iran has agreed to provide $23 million to build a new military complex at Latakia airport, to handle Iranian arms shipments to Syria, to include machine guns, rockets and medium-range missiles. It will be completed by the end of next year. Iran plans to fly hundreds of tons of weapons to Latakia on freight planes which have a capacity of up to 40 tons each. Previous Iranian efforts to provide arms shipments have suffered several setbacks after Turkish officials intercepted a number of shipments destined for Syria. In return for Iranian military support, Syria has supported Tehran's attempts to develop the Islamic Shia fundamentalist Hizbollah militia into a major political force in neighboring Lebanon. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/8699077/Iran-agrees-to-fund-Syrian-military-base.html "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Interim assessment of the humanitarian mission in Libya" Although Nato is nominally in charge of the Libya mission, it was really launched and is led by Europe's residual military powers, France and Britain, operating in their respective national capacities. President Nicolas Sarkozy and Prime Minister David Cameron each embarked on this intervention as a short-term political project, taking "days not weeks," only to see it turn into stalemate, and the expected political rewards turn into liabilities. The resulting perception is that Nato has been held in check by Colonel Muammar Gaddafi’s third-rate troops for all these months. Nato's last perceived military success was Kosovo in 1999. Along with the costly failure in Afghanistan, another failure in Libya would make Nato look irrelevant to American and West-European publics, exposing it to even more debilitating budget cuts after those it has already incurred. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38286&tx_ttnews[backPid]=512 "Jamestown (#1)"#> and <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38292&tx_ttnews[backPid]=512 "Jamestown (#2)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Libyan diplomats tried 'fire sale' in Britain prior to expulsion" In the days before the expulsion of Libya's diplomats from London several weeks ago, they attempted a a "fire sale" of properties and expensive cars worth up to $160-million in the days leading up to their expulsion, intelligence sources have disclosed. <#stdurl http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Libyans+tried+fire+sale+Britain+prior+expulsion/5246276/story.html "Montreal Gazette"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Palestinians visit Caribbean nations to gain UN recognition" Palestinian Authority Foreign Minister Riyad Malki has been making the rounds of 19 countries in Central America and the Caribbean to convince them to support the Palestinians' attempt in September to gain U.N. General Assembly recognition of a Palestinian state. Some of these countries have a population less than 45,000, but they're still sovereign U.N. member states. The Palestinians need two-thirds of the U.N. member states -- that is, at least 129 countries -- and that assumes that America won't carry out its threat to veto the resolution in the Security Council. In the case of a veto, the only option remaining would be to ask the General Assembly for nonmember state status, which they can get with only a majority of the votes of those present in the session. <#stdurl http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2011/08/west-bank-palestinians-determined-to-get-more-recognitions.html "LA Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Saudi-Pakistan relations at a new high" Pakistan maintains close military ties with Saudi Arabia through expertise, and extensive support and training for Saudi defense forces. Saudi Arabia has been more supportive of Pakistan on the Kashmir issue (versus India) than any other nation in the world. Saudi-Pakistan bilateral trade is above $3.3 billion per year. <#stdurl http://arabnews.com/saudiarabia/pakistan_independence-day/article488061.ece "Arab News"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Desperate Swiss try to devalue the Swiss franc" Switzerland is one of the European countries that retained its national currency, and did not join the euro currency. Now, top officials at the Swiss National Bank (SNB) are desperately trying to devalue the Swiss franc, because it's become "massively overvalued." Before the 2008 credit crisis, one euro could buy you 1.65 Swiss francs. But after last week's wild stock market gyrations, leaving France's banks in crisis, one euro could only purchase 1.08 Swiss francs. Swiss francs are becoming more valuable because investors are looking for "safe havens" where they can put their money. US Treasuries are one such safe haven, and the Swiss franc is another safe haven. The highly revalued Swiss franc has put Switzerland into dangerous territory this past month, because the tourist industry is collapsing, and the machine tool industry is heading for major layoffs. The Swiss are trying to devalue the franc by "printing money" - flooding the market with francs, but all of these measures failed during a similar crisis in 1978. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8696289/Desperate-Swiss-eye-euro-peg-to-repel-safe-haven-flood.html "Telegraph"#> (Paragraph corrected - 14-August) (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=895 "14-Aug-11 World View -- Syria's Assad asks for 15 more days to slaughter civilians"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110813 13-Aug-11 World View -- Turkish army forces on high alert near the Syrian border =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110813.head 13-Aug-11 World View -- Turkish army forces on high alert near the Syrian border =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110813.keys Generational Dynamics, Berlin Wall, Turkey, Syria, Israel, settlements, Gaza, Hamas, Germany, birth rate, China, protests, short selling =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110813.loc ww2010.weblog.log1108 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110813.date 13-Aug-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110813.txt1 Europeans commemorate the building of the Berlin Wall, 50 years ago =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110813.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Europeans commemorate the building of the Berlin Wall, 50 years ago" <#inc ww2010.pic g110812c.jpg right "" "Workers build part of the Berlin Wall 50 years ago, August 13, 1961 (AP)"#> When the Soviets suddenly erected the Berlin wall, separating East and West Berlin, the two populations diverged. When the wall fell twenty years ago, it was even more shocking to the East Germans, because their country disappeared, and with it their own identities. Now, younger generations of East Germans are beginning to ask questions about why it happened, and why it lasted so long. <#stdurl http://www.presseurop.eu/en/content/article/855391-wall-between-generations "PressEurop"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkish army forces on high alert near the Syrian border" In recent days, the Turkish army summoned hundreds of officers for reserve duty, placing them in bases near the border with Syria, where they remain on high alert. The protests and the bloodshed continued on Friday. 13 protesters were shot to death by President Assad's security forces, when live fire was shot at thousands of worshippers on their way home from Friday prayers. Increasingly, the Syrian uprising is turning from an internal affair to a regional one, and a potential regional war, with Iran and Iraq siding with Syria against Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the other gulf states. <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/syria-uprising-may-lead-to-regional-war-1.378391 "Haaretz"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Abbas envisions US peacekeeping role in new Palestinian state" Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas and prime minister Salam Fayyad have been giving conflicting signals as to whether they will seek UN recognition of a Palestinian state in September. Abbas gave his vision of security in a future Palestinian state, saying that a third party comprised of NATO forces under US command would take responsibility. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=233543 "Jerusalem Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Cost of protecting Jerusalem settlements at $11,000 per resident" In traditional Arab neighborhoods near the Old City where tensions run particularly high, it costs $22 million to provide security roughly 2,000 Israelis – or $11,000 per resident, according to an Israeli group opposed to the settlements. This comes at a time when Israel's government is facing unprecendent public protests over the soaring cost of housing. <#stdurl http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0812/Israelis-protest-costly-housing-but-not-cost-of-settlements.-Why "CS Monitor"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "US threatens to cut off aid to Gaza after Hamas crackdown" The U.S. will cut $100 million in American aid money to Paletinians in Gaza, if Hamas continues with "unwarrented audits" of local American nonprofit organizations. Hamas shut down one such organization, the U.S.-financed International Medical Corps, after it refused to submit to a Hamas audit. <#stdurl http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/08/12/ap/middleeast/main20091658.shtml "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Why won't Germans have more babies?" <#inc ww2010.pic g110812b.gif right "" "Anemic birth rate in German (Spiegel)"#> Germany is a country where fewer children are being born despite all official efforts to reverse the trend. For years, administrations in Berlin have tried to encourage Germans to have more children. Indeed, the Merkel administration has been particularly active on this issue, with generous parental leave benefits, that have already cost the government almost €15 billion. But no matter how much money the state throws at the problem, Germans just won't have children. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, birth rate is a very interesting issue, since a high birth rate, combined with low infant mortality, provides cannon fodder for the next war. Since WW II, Sunni Muslim states and Israel have had explosive birth rates, while birth rates have declined in many other nations. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,779741,00.html "Spiegel"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Violent protests break out in southwest China town" There are tens of thousands of regional protests in China every year, and the number has been growing. (See my 2005 article, <#hreftext ww2010.i.china050116 ""China approaches Civil War""#>) Some are ethnic (e.g., Han Chinese versus Tibetans or Uighurs), but most of them are along the fault line between peasants and government elite. On Thursday, thousands of Chinese took to the streets of Qianxi, Guizhou, in southwestern China, with some smashing police vehicles in protest of rough handling by government officials. China reported almost 90,000 such "mass incidents" of riots, protests, mass petitions and other acts of unrest in 2011, up from 60,000 in 2006. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/12/us-china-unrest-idUSTRE77B07S20110812 "Reuters"#> and <#stdurl http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2011-08/13/content_13104865.htm "China Daily"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "France, Italy, Spain, Belgium attempt to ban short selling" Hoping to stem the growing financial crisis in Europe, four countries -- France, Italy, Spain, Belgium -- are blaming the "speculators," and trying to end speculation by imposing bans on short selling. In short selling, an investors "bets" that the price of the stock will go down. The way it works is that the investor borrows shares of the stock from his stock broker and then sells the stock, promising to buy it back in a fixed period, like 90 days. If the price goes down in the meantime, the investor makes money. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-11/france-italy-spain-belgium-to-impose-short-sale-curbs-regulator-says.html "Bloomberg"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=894 "13-Aug-11 World View -- Turkish army forces on high alert near the Syrian border"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110812 12-Aug-11 World View -- Female suicide bombers kill 7 in Pakistan =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110812.head 12-Aug-11 World View -- Female suicide bombers kill 7 in Pakistan =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110812.keys Generational Dynamics, suicide bombers, Peshawar, Pakistan, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Turkey, Ahmet Davutoglu, Hizbollah, Lebanon, Walid Jumblatt, Postal Service, David Cameron, social media, religion, Israel, Palestinian Authority =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110812.loc ww2010.weblog.log1108 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110812.date 12-Aug-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110812.txt1 Wall Street prices surge again as turmoil continues =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110812.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Seven people killed by two female suicide bombers in Peshawar, Pakistan" <#inc ww2010.pic g110811b.jpg right "" "Police van affected by bomb blast"#> At least seven persons including four police personnel and a child were killed and more than 20 others injured in twin acts of terrorism in Peshawar, in northwest Pakistan, on Thursday. Two burqa-clad female suicide bombers blew themselves up at police check post, killing both suicide bombers. Some people are saying that the Taliban's use of female suicide bombers is an act of desperation for them, but they're presenting special problems for police. The burqa-clad women terrorists found no hurdle in getting close to their targets since traditionally the male police staff had been reluctant to check women for security needs. <#stdurl http://nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Politics/11-Aug-2011/Twin-blasts-rock-Peshawar-5-dead "The Nation (Lahore)"#> and <#stdurl http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2011\08\12\story_12-8-2011_pg7_13 "Daily Times (Lahore)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria's Assad thumbs his nose at Turkey, NATO and the West" It's been two days by the visit by Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to Syria's president Bashar al-Assad to issue a "final warning" to stop the slaughter of his own civilians. Not only did the trip fail to produce any results, and it's being viewed increasingly as not only a failed mission, but even a humiliating mission. Assad's forces continued the massacres while Davutoglu was visiting Damascus, and then proceeded to goad Turkey by immediately after the visit following up with attacks on towns in Turkey's border region. Syria has also received assurances from Iran that Iran's missiles would attack any Mideast air base from which planes took off to take part in an attack on Syria. Syria increasingly sees Turkey, NATO and the West as too weak to do anything to stop his massacres. <#stdurl http://debka.com/article/21195/ "Debka"#> The Syria uprising and Assad's violent response continues to exacerbate the divisiveness of politics in neighboring Lebanon. Hizbollah continues to lose credibility for failing to criticize his ally, Assad, for slaughtering innocent civilians, while Walid Jumblatt, leader of an opposing party, is openly expressing his support for the Syrian people's right to freedom and democracy. Syria ended its three-decade military and political occupation of Syria in 2005, but Lebanese politics remain divided along lines of loyalty to Damascus and its benefactor Iran. Those rivalries – many rooted in old enmities of ethnicity and religion – have now been exacerbated by the seemingly open-ended turmoil unfolding next door. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=233279 "Jerusalem Post"#> and <#stdurl http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2011/Aug-12/Jumblatts-message-to-Syria-mirrors-that-of-Turkey.ashx "Daily Star (Lebanon)"#> Turkey now remains a real wild card, given the enormous amount of prestige that the Erdogan government has invested in trying to convince Assad to end the violence. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38302&tx_ttnews[backPid]=27&cHash=f9d890f2e9f878e3e7cbc6044d460f69 "Jamestown"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Wall Street prices surge again as turmoil continues" <#inc ww2010.pic g110811c.jpg right "" "Four-day roller coaster ride on Wall Street"#> Just before 9 am ET, Reuters reported from anonymous sources that banks in Asia were cutting credit lines to major French banks. Markets in America and Europe initially reacted negatively, but then largely shrugged it off. Stock prices surged 4-5% on Wall Street on Thursday, continuing the huge see-saw daily movements. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/11/us-crisis-asia-exposure-idUSTRE77A1Q620110811 "Reuters"#> France's CAC 40 Index, which lost 5.5% on Wednesday, lost another 0.6% on Thursday, after the above Reuters report. With France's banks essentially in crisis, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel will meet next week. They will be working to fulfill their promise that "they would formulate joint recommendations aimed at strengthening political and economic governance in the euro area before the end of the summer." <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-08-11/merkel-to-meet-sarkozy-in-paris-as-debt-crisis-roils-france.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Postal Service asks Congress to allow 120,000 layoffs" Facing bankruptcy as early as September, the United States Postal Services has appealed to Congress to remove collective bargaining restrictions and allow 120,000 layoffs and major changes to employee benefits. <#stdurl http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/11/news/economy/postal_service_layoffs/ "CNN"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "David Cameron threatens to block social media in Britain" Britain's prime minister David Cameron is threatening to respond to the recent riots in London and other cities by blocking individuals' access to Twitter, Facebook, BlackBerry Messenger, and other social media. Speaking to the House of Commons on Thursday, where the MPs had been dragged back from their summer vacations, Cameron said:"Everyone watching these horrific actions will be stuck by how they were organised via social media. Free flow of information can be used for good. But it can also be used for ill. So we are working with the Police, the intelligence services and industry to look at whether it would be right to stop people communicating via these websites and services when we know they are plotting violence, disorder and criminality. I have also asked the police if they need any other new powers."Presumably he could ask the Iranians and Syrians how they do it. 36% of British teens are on the Blackberry. <#stdurl http://blogs.ft.com/fttechhub/2011/08/cameron-threatens-to-block-rioters-from-social-media/ "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Boy or girl? A simple test raises ethical concerns" A simple blood test can determine with 95% accuracy whether an unborn baby is a boy or a girl. As the tests become more widely available, they raise ethical questions, since couples could use a gender test to decide whether to have an abortion. <#stdurl http://www.dailynews.com/ci_18646980 "LA Daily News"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "One-third of the world's population is experiencing rising restrictions on religion" Among the world’s 25 most populous countries – which account for about 75% of the world’s total population – restrictions on religion substantially increased in eight countries and did not substantially decrease in any. In China, Nigeria, Russia, Thailand, the United Kingdom and Vietnam, the increases were due primarily to rising levels of social hostilities involving religion. In Egypt and France, the increases were mainly the result of government restrictions. The rest of the 25 most populous countries, including the United States, did not experience substantial changes in either social hostilities or government-imposed restrictions. <#stdurl http://pewresearch.org/pubs/2080/-religious-restrictions-social-hostilities-europe-asia "Pew Research"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel to approve 4,300 settlement units in Jerusalem" In a move that's certain to outrage the Palestinians, Israel's Interior Ministry has given final authorization to build 1,600 apartments in Greater Jerusalem and will approve 2,700 more in the coming days. <#stdurl http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/146635 "Israel National News"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=893 "12-Aug-11 World View -- Female suicide bombers kill 7 in Pakistan"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110811b 11-Aug-11 News -- Stock panic resumes on concerns over Europe's solvency =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110811b.head 11-Aug-11 News -- Stock panic resumes on concerns over Europe's solvency =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110811b.keys Generational Dynamics, euro, panic, Société Générale, BNP Parabas, Crédit Agricole =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110811b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1108 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110811b.date 11-Aug-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110811b.txt1 The euro is quickly unraveling =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110811b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Stock panic resumes on concerns over Europe's solvency" World stock markets give all appearances of being in free fall, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell another 519 points, down 4.6% in another roller coaster day, and has now lost more than 2,000 points since July 21, according to <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jtMxwSxTNqkgHwqRDY8UcOPfheOQ?docId=d3c8a1e2600d456795153b8d896beb20 "AP."#> From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this wild lurching is a danger sign that full scale panic may be near. <#inc ww2010.pic g110810.jpg center "" "Frankfurt Stock Exchange - people stand in the balcony above the DAX index board on 10-Aug (Reuters)"#> Based on various comments I heard on TV, here's what I infer has been going on: Analysts have been predicting the fabled "V-shaped" recovery in the last half of this year, and that prediction was based on bloated predictions of corporate earnings in the last half of the year. Starting from these bloated predictions, analysts further screw things up by ignoring one-time expenses (these are the so-called "operating earnings"). The result is that analysts were predicting huge profits this year, which would mean low price/earnings ratios (also called "valuations"), which would mean that stocks are "oversold" and "the cheapest they've been in years." Since July 21, it's become increasingly clear to the general public that mainstream economists and analysts don't have the vaguest idea what they're talking about, and that politicians simply lie about economics every time they open their mouths. This has caused investors to realize that the bloated earnings predictions are not valid. If the bloated earnings predictions are wrong, then valuations are much higher than the analysts and economists have been saying, and therefore stocks are overpriced after all. Thus, the reasoning concludes, it's time to sell. And that's what they did. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Selling on the rumor" All it took on Wednesday was a trigger: A rumor that France's debt was going to be downgraded from AAA, immediately denied by all three major ratings agencies. But the rumor was too credible to be ignored, since France is worse off than the U.S., and the U.S. has lost its AAA rating. The other part of the rumor was that France's major banks -- Société Générale, BNP Parabas, and Crédit Agricole -- were all in serious trouble because of their exposure to Greek debt. Once again, all three issued immediate denials, SocGen particularly saying that it plenty of reserves. But let's recall that in March, 2008, Bear Stearns went bankrupt. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e080315 ""A historic day in Ben Bernanke's Great Historic Experiment""#>) Two days before Bear Stearns collapsed, the CEO Alan Schwartz had appeared on CNBC, responding to rumors that Bear was having a liquidity crisis. At that time, he said:
"We finished the year, and we reported that we had $17 billion of cash sitting at the parent company as a liquidity cushion. As the year has gone on, since year end, that liquidity cushion has been virtually unchanged, ... The markets have certainly gotten worse, but our liquidity position has not changed at all, our balance sheet has not weakened at all,"It was a complete lie. So SocGen and the other banks made a similar statement on THIS Wednesday, and there's no reason to believe SocGen's denial. What we do know is that, at the end of August, SocGen and other European banks are going to be forced to "voluntarily" do a bond swap of their Greek bonds, and that will force them to take a "voluntary" haircut of at least 21%, and possibly a lot more. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110724 ""24-Jul-11 World View -- Mauldin: Greece's bond 'haircuts' are at 75-80%""#>). So it's not surprising that investors didn't really believe the nonsense denials. The result was that SocGen was down 14.7%, Agricole was down 11.8%, and BNP was down 9.4% -- on Wednesday alone. Italy's Intesa Sanpaolo was off 14%, and Monte dei Paschi fell 10%, according to <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/86a22704-c37e-11e0-b163-00144feabdc0.html "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)."#> Once the European banks led the way, American banks started selling off as well. The reason is that American banks are just as overexposed to European banks, especially French banks, as European banks are overexposed to Greek banks. <#inc ww2010.pic dppr1-100801-s.gif right "" "S&P 500 Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E1) 1871 to August 2010"#> I'm posting this chart again because it's still highly relevant, and it explains what's going on on Wall Street. Even if you don't understand the Law of Mean Reversion at all, you can still understand this chart. This shows that P/E ratios (also called "valuations") have been high, sometimes astronomically high, continuously since 1995. And you can see that valuations are on their way down to 1982 levels, which implies a stock market at the Dow 3000 level or lower. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The euro is quickly unraveling" What's becoming increasingly clear, based on the commentary that I heard on Wednesday, is that the euro is quickly unraveling. Europe has exactly two choices right now:
"The market had fallen 16% since it reached its peak on September 3, but no one was concerned. In fact, pundits said that it was time to buy. Everone believed that the economy and the market were "fundamentally sound" (that phrase is a sure sign of trouble), and so few suspected that anything was wrong." Date DJIA (Change) (% of trend) (% of 1929 high) ----------------- -------------- ---------------- ---------------- Mon 1929-10-21 320.91( -3.71%) (213% of 150.23) ( 84% of 1929-09-03) Tue 1929-10-22 326.51( +1.75%) (217% of 150.25) ( 85% of 1929-09-03) Wed 1929-10-23 305.85( -6.33%) (203% of 150.26) ( 80% of 1929-09-03) Thu 1929-10-24 299.47( -2.09%) (199% of 150.28) ( 78% of 1929-09-03) Black Thursday Fri 1929-10-25 301.22( +0.58%) (200% of 150.30) ( 79% of 1929-09-03) --------------------------------------------------------------------- Mon 1929-10-28 260.64(-13.47%) (173% of 150.36) ( 68% of 1929-09-03) Black Monday Tue 1929-10-29 230.07(-11.73%) (152% of 150.38) ( 60% of 1929-09-03) Wed 1929-10-30 258.47(+12.34%) (171% of 150.40) ( 67% of 1929-09-03) Thu 1929-10-31 273.51( +5.82%) (181% of 150.41) ( 71% of 1929-09-03) (half-day) --------------------------------------------------------------------- Mon 1929-11-04 257.68( -5.79%) (171% of 150.49) ( 67% of 1929-09-03) Wed 1929-11-06 232.13( -9.92%) (154% of 150.53) ( 60% of 1929-09-03) Thu 1929-11-07 238.19( +2.61%) (158% of 150.55) ( 62% of 1929-09-03) Fri 1929-11-08 236.53( -0.70%) (157% of 150.57) ( 62% of 1929-09-03) --------------------------------------------------------------------- Mon 1929-11-11 220.39( -6.82%) (146% of 150.62) ( 57% of 1929-09-03) Tue 1929-11-12 209.74( -4.83%) (139% of 150.64) ( 55% of 1929-09-03) Wed 1929-11-13 198.69( -5.27%) (131% of 150.66) ( 52% of 1929-09-03) Thu 1929-11-14 217.28( +9.36%) (144% of 150.68) ( 57% of 1929-09-03) Fri 1929-11-15 228.73( +5.27%) (151% of 150.70) ( 60% of 1929-09-03) ---------------------------------------------------------------------My reason for posting this data is because what we're seeing these days appears to be very similar to what happened prior to the 1929 crash, especially the wild volatility, and the calm assurance of some analysts that the worst is over. Does that mean that we're days away from a crash? It's impossible to tell, of course, and Higgenbotham in the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=12&start=440#p9476 "Generational Dynamics forum"#> expects the market to remain fairly steady for at least a few more weeks. What can be said with certainty is that the stock market is very dangerous right now. Take care. Note: At this writing, late Monday evening ET, Wall Street stock index futures are down another 2.5%, and Asian stocks on Tuesday morning are nosediving, according to <#stdurl http://www.cnbc.com/id/44066544 "CNBC."#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=888 "9-Aug-11 News -- World stock markets continue their dramatic slide"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110809 9-Aug-11 World View -- Riots and looting spread across Britain =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110809.head 9-Aug-11 World View -- Riots and looting spread across Britain =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110809.keys Generational Dynamics, Britain, David Cameron, Syria, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Philadelphia, Japan, China, North Korea =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110809.loc ww2010.weblog.log1108 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110809.date 9-Aug-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110809.txt1 More Arab states recall envoys from Syria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110809.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Riots and looting spread across Britain" <#inc ww2010.pic g110808b.jpg right "" "Arson and looting in London"#> British Prime Minister David Cameron cut short his vacation on Monday to fly home and speak soothing words, as riots and looting spread across London for the third night in a row, and began to spread to other cities, including Birmingham, Liverpool and Bristol. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/09/britain-riot-idUSL6E7J80H020110809 "Reuters"#> The cause of the riots is being debated. Apparently there are no racial or ethnic issues, leading one politicial to say, "It was needless, opportunistic theft and violence - nothing more, nothing less." However, an economist blames the riots on austerity measures that have made deep public spending cuts and hiked taxes. "In real terms the actual spending reduction program is the most painful if it all came to fruition since the 1940s in terms of its actual squeeze on the levels of public spending. It's something that the U.K. has not endured for many, many years." <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/europe/Riots-Continue-in-London-127253623.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "More Arab states recall envoys from Syria" Arab states, normally loath to criticize another Arab state publicly, are falling in line behind Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah in strongly condemning the violence perpetrated by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. Abdullah has called Assad a "killing machine." Bahrain and Kuwait have followed Abdullah's lead in recalling their ambassador's to Syria. This comes at a time when Turkey's foreign minister is scheduled to visit Syria on Tuesday to deliver a strong message, possibly warning of potential military action from Turkey. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/08/us-gulf-syria-envoys-idUSTRE7773O820110808 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Philadelphia imposes 9 pm curfew on teenagers" <#inc ww2010.pic g110808c.jpg right "" "Philadelphia mayor Michael A. Nutter"#> Michael A. Nutter, the Mayor of Philadelphia, has announced a 9 pm weekend curfew on teenagers, in response to "flash mobs" of marauding teens who beat random people and destroy property. He's created controversy by blaming the problem mostly on blacks, particularly blaming absent fathers and neglectful parents in the black community. "You have damaged your own race." <#stdurl http://www.philly.com/philly/news/127248428.html "Philadelphia Inquirer"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Japan releases China's trawlers fishing in Sea of Japan" In a replay of an event that brought relations between China and Japan to a crisis level last year in September, Japan on Friday detained two Chinese fishing trawlers and their 17 passengers, charging them with fishing illegally in the Sea of Japan. Japan's Kyodo News reported that once the captains admitted to fishing illegally and offered cash for security or to sign papers promising to pay, a quick release would follow. <#stdurl http://www.globaltimes.cn/NEWS/tabid/99/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/669831/Chinese-trawlers-released.aspx "Global Times (Beijing)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "N. Korean government earns cash from hacking S. Korean online games" North Koreans have made $6 million in two years by hacking into popular South Korean online gaming sites such as "Lineage" and "Dungeon and Fighter." This allowed them free access to the games' servers, which allowed them to accumulate virtual money in the game. This virtual money can then be sold to real human game players, who use it to buy game accessories online. <#stdurl http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/05/world/asia/05korea.html?_r=4 "NY Times"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=888 "9-Aug-11 News -- World stock markets continue their dramatic slide"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110808 8-Aug-11 World View -- Threats to Syria grow from all sides =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110808.head 8-Aug-11 World View -- Threats to Syria grow from all sides =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110808.keys Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Ahmed Davutoglu, Turkey, Arab league, King Abdullah, Saudi Arabia, ECB, Jean-Claude Trichet, Postal Service, Burj Khalifa, Dubai, Israel, Avigdor Lieberman =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110808.loc ww2010.weblog.log1108 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110808.date 8-Aug-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110808.txt1 Desperate European Central Bank fires a bazooka =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110808.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syrian armored forces move on to flatten Deir Ezzor" <#inc ww2010.pic g110807d.jpg right "" "Syrian protesters run from tear gas canisters in Homs (Reuters)"#> Things appear to be moving quickly with respect to the situation in Syria, as threats emerge from the entire region. Some 55 people were killed by Syria's army on Sunday across the country. Having massacred as many people as possible in Homa, the armed forces of Bashar al-Assad's regime has moved on to the city of Deir Ezzor. The technique being used in each of these cities is that tanks first surround the city to prevent anyone from fleeing and then, once the city is sealed, the tanks start flattening residential neighborhoods and the snipers kill anyone on the street, even children. <#stdurl http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2011/08/07/Dozens-die-in-Syrian-crackdown/UPI-83491312716375/ "UPI"#> and <#stdurl http://debka.com/article/21188/ "Debka"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria replies harshly to threat from Turkey" As we <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110807 "reported"#> yesterday, Turkey's foreign minister Ahmed Davutoglu will visit Syria on Tuesday to hand Syria a final message that Turkey will not stand by while Syria commits these massacres on Turkey's doorstep. It's thought that this is Turkey's last warning before intervening militarily in Syria. Syria has responded harshly to the warning, saying that they would deliver an "even more decisive" message. "If Davutoglu is to deliver a decisive message to Syria, he will hear Syria's more decisive reply regarding the Turkish stance which failed to condemn the brutal killing and crimes committed by the armed terrorist groups against the civilians, military and police members until now." <#stdurl http://www.todayszaman.com/news-253032-syria-hits-back-at-turkish-rebuke-as-pre-visit-tension-escalates.html "Zaman"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Arab League breaks silence and condemns violence in Syria" Arab nations have been strangely silent during the massacre in Syria for five months, but on Sunday Arab League Secretary-General Nabil Elaraby issued a statement expressing "growing concern and strong distress over the deteriorating security conditions in Syria due to escalating violence and military operations in Hama and Deir Ezzor and other areas of Syria." Elaraby’s statement was one of the strongest made by an Arab leader since the start of the Syrian uprising, as most governments had stayed silent apparently fearing the power of the protests would move to other Arab states. <#stdurl http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/08/07/161262.html "Al-Arabiya"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Saudi King Abdullah recalls the Saudi ambassador to Syria" Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah issued a statement on Monday morning that he was withdrawing the Saudi ambassador from Damascus in protest of the violence. "What is happening in Syria is not acceptable for Saudi Arabia. Syria should think wisely before it’s too late and issue and enact reforms that are not merely promises but actual reforms." He said that Syria has two choices: "Either it chooses wisdom on its own or it will be pulled down into the depths of turmoil and loss. The events are grave and cannot be justified, and this has resulted in the loss of large numbers of lives and left many injured. This cannot be contemplated by any sane Muslim, Arab or other human being. He added that all should be aware that what's happening in Syria cannot be condoned by Islam. <#stdurl http://arabnews.com/saudiarabia/article484965.ece "Arab News"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Desperate European Central Bank fires a bazooka" I had thought that Washington and Brussels had finally run out of bullets in their attempt to halt the increasingly rapid deterioration of the global financial system. It turns out that they HAVE run out of bullets, so now the European Central Bank (ECB) "has decided to bring out the bazooka," according to one analyst. After having refused to do so for months, and having said that he would never do so, ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet announced on Sunday evening that the ECB would begin buying bonds from Italy and Spain, in a massive exercise in quantitative easing. In helping to bailout Greece, Ireland and Portugal, the ECB has previously purchased about €74 billion of assets from those countries. But doing the same for Spain and Italy will cost at least several billion euros, possibly more than €1 trillion. So this is truly a move of complete desperation, and one that can't succeed. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-07/trichet-draws-ecb-bazooka-to-stem-contagion.html "Bloomberg"#> and <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/07/us-ecb-italy-idUSTRE7762RD20110807 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "It's that '1937 feeling' all over again" Analysts are comparing today's environment to 1937, when the Fed pulled back on lending and government spending fell 10%, and this was followed by a deepening of the economic slump. However, that's really wishful thinking. (See the 1932 book, <#hreftext ww2010.i.garrett071009 ""The bubble that broke the world.""#>) Today is actually much more like 1931, and we're soon going to see the equivalent of the collapse of Austria's Credit-Anstalt bank and Germany's Danatbank in 1931. These events brought about massive unemployment, and social tension that gave rise to Communism and Naziism. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/07/us-global-economy-weekahead-idUSTRE77628V20110807 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "US Postal Service comes closer to bankruptcy" The U.S. Postal Service posted a $3.1 billion loss for third quarter, and will completely run out of cash by the end of September. Suggestions offered to save money are to eliminate Saturday deliveries, to close more post offices, or for Congress to allow the Postal Service to borrow more money. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-05/u-s-postal-service-posts-3-1-billion-loss-for-third-quarter.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Residents of Dubai skyscraper have to fast longer during Ramadan" <#inc ww2010.pic g110807b.jpg right "" "The Burj Khalifa hotel in Dubai, the tallest skyscraper in the world"#> Muslims residing above the 80th floor in Dubai's Burj Khalifa, the tallest skyscraper in the world, during Ramadan must fast for two or three minutes longer in the evening, because the sun sets 2-3 minutes later, according to the Dubai Islamic Affairs Department in a Fatwa. Furthermore, they must begin their daily fasting two minutes earlier, since the sun rises earlier above the 80th floor. <#stdurl http://gulfnews.com/in-focus/ramadan/burj-khalifa-residents-told-to-fast-longer-during-ramadan-1.848316 "Gulf News"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Workers in Dubai are not exempt from work or fasting during Ramadan" Manual laborers who work under the scorching Gulf sun are not exempt from work during the month of fasting; however breaking of the fast mid-way is acceptable depending on level of 'hardship'. Dubai People engaged in work that is of a strenuous and demanding nature do not fall under the category of those exempt from fasting, according to the latest of the Ramadan series of fatwas issued by the Dubai Islamic Affairs and Charitable Activities Department (IACAD). The fatwa goes on to say, however, that it is permissible for such a person to break their fast during the day if forced by the tough nature of their job — provided the missing day of fast is compensated for later. <#stdurl http://www.albawaba.com/workers-strenuous-jobs-not-exempt-fast-387165 "Al-Bawaba"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Avigdor Lieberman warns that Palestinians want 'bloodshed'" <#inc ww2010.pic g110807c.jpg right "" "Avigdor Lieberman"#> Israel's hard right Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman warns that the Palestinian Authority is preparing to attack Israel with "bloodshed on a scale we haven't seen" in September, after the UN recognizes Palestine. He announced that he is advocating that Israel sever all ties with the Palestinian Authority. <#stdurl http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/146459 "Israel National News"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=886 "8-Aug-11 World View -- Threats to Syria grow from all sides"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110807b 7-Aug-11 News -- Bitter recriminations fly over U.S. debt downgrade =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110807b.head 7-Aug-11 News -- Bitter recriminations fly over U.S. debt downgrade =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110807b.keys Generational Dynamics, S&P, ratings downgrade, China =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110807b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1108 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110807b.date 7-Aug-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110807b.txt1 China issues a bitter, acerbic statement =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110807b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Bitter recriminations fly over U.S. debt downgrade" The late Friday <#stdurl http://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDT-Type&blobcol=urldata&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobheadervalue2=inline%3B+filename%3DUS_Downgraded_AA%2B.pdf&blobheadername2=Content-Disposition&blobheadervalue1=application%2Fpdf&blobkey=id&blobheadername1=content-type&blobwhere=1243942957443&blobheadervalue3=UTF-8 "Standard & Poor's report (PDF)"#> downgrading U.S. debt from AAA to AA+, with negative outlook, has raised anger and anxiety around the world, and led to a feeling that the deterioration of the global financial system is speeding up. <#inc ww2010.pic g110806.gif center "" "US Debt vs GDP (BBC)"#> We're in uncharted territory. No one knows what's going to happen next week, with opinions spanning the range from "non-event" to "catastrophe." The most bitter, acerbic statement came from China's state run news agency <#stdurl http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/indepth/2011-08/06/c_131032986.htm "Xinhua"#>:
"The days when the debt-ridden Uncle Sam could leisurely squander unlimited overseas borrowing appeared to be numbered as its triple A-credit rating was slashed by Standard & Poor's (S&P) for the first time on Friday. Though the U.S. Treasury promptly challenged the unprecedented downgrade, many outside the United States believe the credit rating cut is an overdue bill that America has to pay for its own debt addition and the short-sighted political wrangling in Washington. Dagong Global, a fledgling Chinese rating agency, degraded the U.S. treasury bonds late last year, yet its move was met then with a sense of arrogance and cynicism from some Western commentators. Now S&P has proved what its Chinese counterpart has done is nothing but telling the global investors the ugly truth. China, the largest creditor of the world's sole superpower, has every right now to demand the United States to address its structural debt problems and ensure the safety of China's dollar assets. To cure its addiction to debts, the United States has to reestablish the common sense principle that one should live within its means. S&P has already indicated that more credit downgrades may still follow. Thus, if no substantial cuts were made to the U.S. gigantic military expenditure and bloated social welfare costs, the downgrade would prove to be only a prelude to more devastating credit rating cuts, which will further roil the global financial markets all along the way. Moreover, the spluttering world economic recovery would be very likely to be undermined and fresh rounds of financial turmoil could come back to haunt us all."Republicans and Democrats have been blaming each other for the downgrade. U.S. House Speaker Republican John Boehner blamed the downgrade on decades of reckless spending, accusing leading Democrats of refusing to make "tough choices." Democratic Senate Leader Harry Reid said the move "reaffirms the need for a balanced approach to deficit reduction," including an end to tax breaks for the wealthiest Americans – something Republicans refused to accept. <#stdurl http://blogs.voanews.com/breaking-news/2011/08/06/us-credit-downgrade-sparks-more-political-jabs/ "VOA"#> From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, politicians could have neither caused nor prevented the growing financial crisis. This is a generational crisis, the first since the 1930s. The credit bubble of the mid-2000s decade created huge amounts of liquidity. With the collapse of that bubble, there is less money in the world every day, because of deleveraging. As liquidity becomes more scarce, meaning that the supply of liquidity goes down, the "price" of liquidity, as measured in interest rates (bond yields) goes up, particularly in Europe, by the law of supply and demand. This is causing a deflationary spiral that cannot be stopped by any politicians. The bitter recriminations will continue and worsen until the crisis becomes so great that all sides will be forced to unite for the survival of the nation. This is the generational "regeneracy" of civic unity that will occur for the first time since the end of World War II. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=884 "7-Aug-11 News -- Bitter recriminations fly over U.S. debt downgrade"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110807 7-Aug-11 World View -- Turkey's patience runs out over Syria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110807.head 7-Aug-11 World View -- Turkey's patience runs out over Syria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110807.keys Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Ahmet Davutoglu, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Navy SEALs, North London, Al-Shabaab, Somalia, Mogadishu, Tel Aviv, Israel =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110807.loc ww2010.weblog.log1108 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110807.date 7-Aug-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110807.txt1 Navy SEAL team killed in helicopter crash in Afghanistan =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110807.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey says that 'patience is running out' over Syria's savagery" <#inc ww2010.pic g110701d.jpg right "" "Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu (Zaman)"#> For months, there's been talk that Turkey might invade Syria to create a "buffer zone" on Syrian soil to which people can flee. Now Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu will visit Syria next week to pass a stark warning to President Bashar al-Assad that Turkey will not remain a bystander if the five-month crisis in the neighboring country deepens. According to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan:
" We have been very patient until now, waiting to see whether we can fix this; whether they will listen to what we have been saying. But our patience is running out now. [Davutoglu] will have the necessary talks and convey our messages in a determined manner. The ensuing process will be shaped according to the response we get."<#stdurl http://www.todayszaman.com/news-252949-davutoglu-to-visit-syria-as-turkeys-patience-running-out-over-crackdown.html "Zaman (Istanbul)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Navy SEAL team among those killed in helicopter crash in Afghanistan" <#inc ww2010.pic g110806d.jpg right "" "A helicopter similar to the one shot down on Saturday"#> Navy SEALs suffered a devastating loss when nearly two dozen of the elite troops were among 30 Americans and seven Afghan commandos who died when their helicopter was shot down in Afghanistan early Saturday. It was the largest number of American troops killed in a single day in the war. U.S. officials said the helicopter appeared to have been felled by enemy fire, and the Taliban quickly claimed responsibility. The loss of so many SEALs represents a significant blow to a tightknit group that is involved in some of the most sensitive U.S. counter-terrorism operations around the world. <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-afghanistan-chopper-20110807,0,1729289.story "LA Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Rioters protesting in North London set cars, bus and shops on fire" Riot-squad officers clashed with demonstrators amid chaotic scenes in north London on Saturday evening, as a protest over the shooting of a man by police turned violent. Two patrol cars, at least one shop and a double-decker bus were set on fire. <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/cars-bus-and-shops-set-ablaze-by-rioters-protesting-over-met-shooting-man-dead-2333327.html "Independent"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Al-Shabaab Islamists in Somalia flee from Mogadishu" In a rather startling development, Somalia's al-Shabaab Islamists have fled the capital Mogadishu, apparently driven out by African Union peacekeepers. The horrific famine in Somalia has drained major sources of income from the Islamists, exposing rifts in al-Shabaab's leadership between an international wing influenced by al-Qaeda fighters who favour guerrilla tactics like suicide bombings, and others who sought a conventional military strategy of holding territory. The abandonment of Mogadishu suggests the international faction won the day. "If that is the case then al Shabaab might leave other cities, ... melt away in the population and turn to guerrilla warfare, explosions, assassinations or suicide attacks," said one analyst. <#stdurl http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL6E7J606B20110807 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Hundreds of thousands of Israelis march for economic reform" <#inc ww2010.pic g110806b.jpg right "" "Israeli activists rally in Tel Aviv against rising property prices on 30-Jul (Reuters)"#> A quarter-million Israelis marched Saturday for lower living costs in an escalating protest that has catapulted the economy onto the political agenda and put pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The demonstrations have upstaged Netanyahu's standoff with the Palestinians ahead of their bid to lobby for U.N. recognition of statehood next month. Protests also deflated his celebration of Israel's stability as citizen revolts rock surrounding Arab states across the Middle East and North Africa. <#stdurl http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE7752EQ20110806 "Reuters"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=884 "7-Aug-11 News -- Bitter recriminations fly over U.S. debt downgrade"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110806b 6-Aug-11 News -- U.S. State Dept. urges U.S. citizens to leave Syria immediately =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110806b.head 6-Aug-11 News -- U.S. State Dept. urges U.S. citizens to leave Syria immediately =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110806b.keys Generational Dynamics, Syria, travel warning, Bashar al-Assad, Dmitry Medvedev, Hizbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110806b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1108 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110806b.date 6-Aug-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110806b.txt1 Hizbollah's dilemma on Syria uprising =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110806b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.S. State Dept. urges U.S. citizens to leave Syria immediately" The U.S. Department of State on Friday issued a <#stdurl http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/tw/tw_5442.html "travel warning"#> urging all U.S. citizens to depart Syria immediately, "while commercial transportation is still available." It warns, "Syrian efforts to attribute the current civil unrest to external influences may lead to an increase in anti-foreigner sentiment. Detained U.S. citizens may find themselves subject to allegations of incitement or espionage." <#inc ww2010.pic g110805.jpg center "" "Kuwaitis in Kuwait City demonstrate to demand expulsion of Syrian ambassador (AFP)"#> It was the first Friday in Ramadan and the first major day of demonstrations in the city of Hama since Syria's president Bashar al-Assad's regime began its bloody massacre on the unarmed civilians of the city, reportedly killing over 200 people. If Assad had hoped that the massacre would stop the anti-regime demonstrations, then his hopes were dashed on Friday, according to the <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/la-fg-syria-protests-20110806,0,2255646.story "LA Times."#> In cities across the country, tens of thousands were willing to risk their lives by joining the demonstrations. At least 14 people were killed on Friday, 11 of them in the capital, Damascus, and its outskirts. "Because of the crackdown in Hama, people all over went out on the streets in solidarity. This is what happens when the government tries to stop us," according to one activist. Assad is particularly focusing on Hama because of the city's historical significance. Syria's last generational crisis war was the civil war that began in 1976, and featured a major armed uprising by people under the name of the Muslim Brotherhood. The crisis climax of the war occurred when President Hafez al-Assad, the father of the current president, bombed the city flat in 1982, killing tens of thousands of people, in one of the most brutal genocidal acts since the end of World War II. Today's president Assad is reliving those days. He imagines an armed uprising of "foreign activists," like the Muslim Brotherhood in days of old. He actually claims that the violence and slaughter were being perpetrated not by his forces but by these armed activists. Maybe he really believes that or maybe he's making a political statement, but either way, he's trying to prevent the massive bloodshed of a new uprising like the one in 1982. What Assad doesn't understand is that such an uprising is literally impossible at this time. Syria is in a generational Awakening era, one generation past the bloody 1982 Hama massacre. The survivors of that massacre are still alive, and they've determined that nothing like that should ever happen again. So we have a situation where Assad is acting in the belief that he's in the beginning of a massive new armed uprising in Hama, although such an uprising is impossible. If Assad understood Generational Dynamics theory (or read my web site), he would know that the bloody massacre he's perpetrating is completely unproductive. Syrian's demonstrators today are not perpetrating an armed uprising. They're like the demonstrators in America's last generational Awakening era, in the 1960s and 1970s. The young generation, in the same archetype as America's Boomers of the 1960s, will continue to demonstrate and express outrage for years, until some climax occurs, such as the end of Assad's reign. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russian president Medvedev says that Assad is 'in for a grim fate'" <#inc ww2010.pic g110805b.jpg right "" "Photo of Assad scolding Russian president Medvedev"#> Although Russia refused to allow a UN Security Council resolution on Syria, it did go along with a toothless statement condemning the violence. However, even this represents a change by the Russians. But now, Russia's president Dmitry Medvedev says:
"In my discussions with President Assad during our personal conversations and in our correspondence I have been advocating one principal idea: that he should immediately launch reforms, reconcile with the opposition, restore civil accord, and start developing a modern state. Should he fail to do that, he is in for a grim fate, and we will eventually have to take some decisions on Syria, too. Naturally, we have been watching developments very attentively. The situation is changing, and so are our objectives."<#stdurl http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/08/05/54246871.html "Voice of Russia"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Hizbollah’s dilemma on Syria uprising" Lebanon's terrorist group Hizbollah initially supported the "Arab spring" movements, with Hizbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah saying, "We cannot stand idly when the disputes takes place between the oppressed and oppressor, between right and wrong." However, he's changed his tune since the Arab uprising spread to Syria, and threatened the regime of Hizbollah's close ally, Bashar al-Assad. Each wave of arrests and killings in Syria exposes the dual standards of his position. There have been reports of protesters chanting anti-Hizbollah slogans, and the organisation has come in for criticism from some former supporters in the Arab media. <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2e98fb7c-bf47-11e0-898c-00144feabdc0.html "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=883 "6-Aug-11 News -- U.S. State Dept. urges U.S. citizens to leave Syria immediately"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110806 6-Aug-11 World View -- S&P downgrades U.S. debt =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110806.head 6-Aug-11 World View -- S&P downgrades U.S. debt =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110806.keys Generational Dynamics, Standard & Poor's, debt rating, jobs report, Luc Coene, ECB, Turkey, Israel, Lebanon =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110806.loc ww2010.weblog.log1108 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110806.date 6-Aug-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110806.txt1 Jobs report contains some ugly truths =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110806.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Standard & Poor's downgrades U.S. debt from AAA to AA+" <#inc ww2010.pic g110805c.jpg right "" "Standard & Poor's"#> The S&P ratings service downgraded U.S. debt from AAA to AA+ late on Friday. The outlook is "negative," meaning that further downgrades are possible.
"The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government’s medium-term debt dynamics. ... More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative outlook to the rating."The Administration put tremendous political pressure this week on S&P, to convince it not to downgrade. However, as I've pointed out before, S&P could not succumb to this political pressure without creating a disastrous situation in Europe, where S&P had resisted political pressure not to downgrade various European countries. There are many contracts in the world that are written to require investments only in AAA rated securities. Many mutual funds are required to invest only in AAA rated securities. Thus, the downgrading of US Treasuries presents a very complex situation with unforeseeable consequences. The other two major ratings agencies, Moody's and Fitch, have reaffirmed their AAA ratings on U.S. debt, but still have a "negative" outlook, meaning that they can join S&P in its downgrade. However, for the time being at least, the fact that only one ratings agency out of three has lowered the U.S. rating may make it possible for many organizations to ignore the S&P downgrade, or to issue a waiver of some kind. The first major market test of the downgrade will occur on Sunday evening ET, when the Asian markets open on Monday morning. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-06/u-s-credit-rating-cut-by-s-p-for-first-time-on-deficit-reduction-accord.html "Bloomberg"#> and <#stdurl http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/05/news/economy/downgrade_rumors/index.htm?iref=BN1&hpt=hp_t1 "CNN"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "S&P downgrade tops a chaotic day on the markets" Wall Street stocks ended the day mixed, obscuring the 508-point range through with the DJIA traveled, in a roller-coaster ride that appeared to contain both upward and downward mini-panics. The jobs report for July came out at 8:30 am ET. It was extremely dismal, but it was less dismal than expected, and this triggered a huge initial market spike at the open. But then, each tiny bit of bad financial news caused the market to go down, and each tiny bit of good financial news pushed it back up. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g8RTSETgrt24od69WkmbwADOg69Q?docId=2da8e3f537df47809559a3acba878a99 "AP"#> I would warn my readers that the market is extremely dangerous right now, and that cash and Treasury bills are much safer than the stock market right now, despite the downgrade. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Jobs report contains some ugly truths" The Friday morning jobs report said that the economy added 117,000 jobs in July, and the unemployment rate fell to 9.1% from 9.2%. But according to the jobs report, there were 38,000 FEWER people working in July versus June. The anomaly was caused by a huge spike-up in the number of "discouraged workers," people who have stopped looking for work, and who are not counted as unemployed. And the so-called "real" unemployment rate, which adds in discouraged workers and others not counted as part of the headline unemployment rate, remains high at 16.1%. <#stdurl http://www.cnbc.com/id/44033486 "CNBC"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pouring water into a bucket with a hole in it" The chaos is much worse in Europe than on Wall Street. The European Central Bank is reacting by restarting its version of quantitative easing -- by purchasing bonds issued by Greece, Portugal and Ireland. But the ECB is not yet purchasing bonds issued by Spain and Italy, because these countries have not yet taken enough austerity measures. According to Luc Coene, on the ECB governing council:
"The bank is ready to make major efforts to help the situation, but countries have to do what is necessary first, otherwise it’s just like pouring water into a bucket with a hole in it. Markets have heard too many promises, without seeing anything concrete … once concrete measures are taken, contagion will stop automatically."<#stdurl http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2011/08/05/ecb-official-were-not-being-helpful/ "MarketWatch"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey will not participate in US-Israel military drills" The Turkish navy will not participate in upcoming joint drills staged by the United States and Israel in the Mediterranean, in a display of its disappointment with Israel after the country refused to apologize for the deaths of nine Turks in the confrontation between the Gaza "Freedom Flotilla" and the Israeli navy in May, 2010. The purpose of the drills, which have been going on for ten years, is to gain experience in collaborative research and rescue missions. <#stdurl http://www.todayszaman.com/news-252745-turkey-not-participating-in-us-israel-drill-due-to-apology-disappointment.html "Zaman (Ankara)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Lebanon and Israel disagree over offshore natural gas and oil rights" Lebanon's parliament has passed a law that, in effect, challenges Israel's rights to continue drilling for oil and natural gas in areas of the Mediterranean Sea that Lebanon claims are its own. Lebanon will submit the law to the United Nations, to determine the maritime boundary between the two countries and to define Lebanon's "exclusive economic zone" (EEZ). <#stdurl http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/lebanon-to-drill-in-disputed-sea "The National (UAE)"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=883 "6-Aug-11 News -- U.S. State Dept. urges U.S. citizens to leave Syria immediately"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110805b 5-Aug-11 News -- Markets plunge 5% on Thursday over bad economic news =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110805b.head 5-Aug-11 News -- Markets plunge 5% on Thursday over bad economic news =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110805b.keys Generational Dynamics, Europe, Greece, Jose Manuel Barroso, Wall Street, panic =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110805b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1108 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110805b.date 5-Aug-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110805b.txt1 N. Korea demands food, cement in response to S. Korea's flood aid offer =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110805b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Markets plunge 5% on Thursday over bad economic news" Politicians scrambled to lie and point fingers, as they tried to figure out how to make sure that someone else was blamed for the plunge on world markets on Thursday. It was a truly vomit-inducing spectacle. <#inc ww2010.pic g110804.jpg center "" "Jose Manuel Barroso"#> On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 512 points, with the biggest nine-day drop since March 2009. The "Volatility Index" (VIX), a measure of investor anxiety computed from the volume of certain hedging options, jumped 35% to 31.66, the highest close since July 2010, and the biggest jump since Feb 27, 2007, according to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-04/vix-jumps-to-highest-level-since-march-as-economic-data-pushes-down-stocks.html "Bloomberg."#> "It’s just panic out there," says one analyst. "Everyone is moving into cash. People are selling everything.” The economic news has been particularly bad recently in America, Europe and China, as we've been reporting, and that may have triggered the mini-panic. However, many analysts said that it was triggered by a <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8681770/Jose-Manuel-Barroso-letter-the-full-text.html "statement"#> by European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso in the form of a letter to the 27 leaders of the European Union:
"Developments in the sovereign bond markets of Italy, Spain and other euro area Member States are a cause of deep concern. Though these developments are clearly unwarranted on the basis of economic and budgetary fundamentals and the recent efforts of these Member States, they reflect a growing scepticism among investors about the systemic capacity of the euro area to respond to the evolving crisis. Markets remain to be convinced that we are taking the appropriate steps to resolve the crisis. The 21st of July bold decisions on the Greek package ... are not having their intended effect on the markets. Markets highlight, among other reasons, the global economic uncertainties due to both economic growth and the protracted decision on budgetary adjustments in the US but, first and foremost, the undisciplined communication and the complexity and incompleteness of the 21st July package. Whatever the factors behind the lack of success, it is clear that we are no longer managing a crisis just in the euro-area periphery."It's really hard to know how to respond to this crap. The "July 21st package" was based on phony numbers and hasn't even been implemented yet. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110724 ""24-Jul-11 World View -- Mauldin: Greece's bond 'haircuts' are at 75-80%""#>) Barroso and other EU officials have lied over and over, even though it's been obvious since early last year that any bailout of Greece would not prevent default. <#inc ww2010.pic g110802b.gif right "" "Italy 10 year bonds - 8/2/2011 - 6.1% yield"#> However, Barroso is right about one thing: that the crisis has spread beyond the periphery, and is beginning to affect the euro's core countries -- Spain, Italy, Belgium, and even France. There's been a bond panic going on in Europe, as we've been describing, with people selling off bonds, forcing up yields (interest rates). The 6.1% yield on Italy's 10-year bonds is the particular value that triggered Barroso's statement. But now the European bond panic has spread to the stock markets, including Wall Street. What makes me angry about all this -- besides the constant, incessant lying by politicians in Washington and Brussels and by economists and analysts on CNBC and Bloomberg TV -- is that this was entirely predictable. As I've been saying for years, price/earnings ratios (also called "valuations") have been way above average since 1995. Thus, by the Law of Mean Reversion, the valuations have to fall to values well below average for a roughly equivalent amount of time, meaning that the stock market will fall to Dow 3000 or lower, and stay there for years. There won't be any recovery until the 2020s. If you look at the bottom of the <#stdurl http://www.generationaldynamics.com/ww2010.htm "Home Page"#> of my web site, you'll see the price/earnings ratio <#stdurl http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?redir=http://tal.marketgauge.com/dvmgpro/charts/CPERATI.HTM "chart"#> that gets updated every week. Here's last Friday's version of the chart: <#inc ww2010.pic pe110726.gif center "" "S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio and S&P 500-stock Index as of 29-July-2011. (MarketGauge ® by DataView, LLC)"#> And here's the version of the same chart from 2003: <#inc ww2010.pic per0310.gif center "" "S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio and S&P 500-stock Index as of 10-Oct-2003. (MarketGauge ® by DataView, LLC)"#> So for some of you guys who think I make all this stuff up, you can see that the MarketGauge people have reached exactly the same conclusion. And I didn't invent or make up the Law of Mean Reversion, either. I've been writing about this stuff for years, but in recent days the debt crises in Europe and America have finally educated people about how bad off things are. I don't expect the average "man on the street" to understand the Law of Mean Reversion, but I do expect the high-priced analysts who appear on TV to understand the Law of Mean Reversion, and to tell the truth about what it means. Instead, they lie about valuations, and always say that stocks are cheap. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110728b ""28-Jul-11 News -- Washington follows Brussels in fraud and extortion""#>) Mainstream economists are consistently wrong. They didn't predict and can't explain the 1990s tech bubble, the real estate and credit bubbles, the financial crisis since 2007, where we are today, and what's coming next year. They macroeconomic models based on 1970s-80s data, when Great Depression survivors were running things, so these models are consistently wrong today. If you listen to mainstream economists, then you're going to get screwed. If you listen to analysts on CNBC or Bloomberg TV who are telling you that stocks are way cheap because of Thursday's panic, then you're going to get screwed. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there's going to be a major panic and Wall Street crash to the Dow 3000 level and lower. I'm not saying that we're in the middle of this panic right now (though we may be), but I'm saying that it's coming with mathematical certainly. Use the time remaining to prepare yourself, your family, your community, and your nation. Note: At this writing, on Thursday evening ET (Friday morning in Asia), Asian stock markets have fallen over 4%. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=882 "5-Aug-11 News -- Markets plunge 5% on Thursday over bad economic news"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110805 5-Aug-11 World View -- Another horrific day of slaughter in Hama, Syria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110805.head 5-Aug-11 World View -- Another horrific day of slaughter in Hama, Syria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110805.keys Generational Dynamics, Hama, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Hillary Clinton, Korea, Egypt, Hosni Mubarak, China, Japan, Pakistan, Uighurs =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110805.loc ww2010.weblog.log1108 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110805.date 5-Aug-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110805.txt1 Peace in Our Time Dept.: China criticizes Japan =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110805.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Another horrific day of slaughter in Hama, Syria" <#inc ww2010.pic g110804c.jpg right "" "People duck to avoid gunfire from snipers in Hama (Reuters)"#> It's been another horrific day of slaughter by the regime of president Bashar al-Assad, targeting ordinary civilians in the city of Hama. According to various news reports, army tanks and snipers have totally locked down the city. Army tanks fire indiscriminately into residential neighborhoods. People are without electricity or food. If someone leaves home to try to get food, there's a good chance that a sniper will kill him. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Thursday that U.S. officials believe more than 2,000 people have been killed in the Syrian government’s months-long crackdown on dissent. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Clinton-Syria-Death-Toll-Exceeds-2000--126800548.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "N. Korea demands food, cement in response to S. Korea's flood aid offer" A day after S. Korea Seoul offered $4.7 million in emergency relief aid to the flood-stricken North Koreans, they asked South Korea to provide rice, flour, cement and heavy construction equipment instead. The South Koreans immediately turned down the request, saying that they would only send medical supplies and other necessities, including blankets and packs of instant noodles. North Korea has been hit hard by floods in recent years, mainly because of its lack of investment in disaster control and severe deforestation. However, South Korea stopped sending rice and cement to the North after North Koreas two military attacks last year, on a South Korea ship and island, respectively. <#stdurl http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2011/08/04/71/0401000000AEN20110804006751315F.HTML "Yonhap"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Mubarak trial inflames supporters and detractors in Egypt" <#inc ww2010.pic g110804b.jpg right "" "Deposed leader Hosni Mubarak on trial"#> Hundreds of riot police in Cairo, Egypt, struggled to separate the supporters of deposed Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak from those who despised him, as Mubarak's trial began. No one even knew for sure whether the ill Mubarak would even show up. So the picture of a humiliated Mubarak appearing in court in bed inside a steel cage served to infuriate his supporters and cheer his detractors. Mubarak is being charged with ordering security forces to shoot hundreds of demonstrators when the demonstrations began at the beginning of the year. He's also charged with corruption and abuse of power. <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-egypt-mubarak-trial-20110804,0,2267345.story "LA Times"#> and <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iFZj6y1Psjx2g5hB01s7nB24gjrg?docId=f96a927ce79a46dd9e84108f89f27998 "Associated Press"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Peace in Our Time Dept.: China criticizes Japan" China has blasted Japan's annual defense report, which warned that China was stepping up belligerent activities in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, risking conflict. The report also criticizes China's rapid military buildup. However, China's foreign ministry issued a statement calling the report "China-bashing" and "nitpicking." "China has always conducted maritime exploration, training and other activities involving the protection of its national interests in its territorial waters. That's in line with China's legitimate demands for peaceful development," says the state-run news service. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-14398647 "BBC"#> and <#stdurl http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-08/04/c_131029748.htm "Xinhua"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China continues to blame Pakistan for Uighur terrorism" China is pointing the finger of blame for a weekend terrorist attack by Uighurs at Pakistan, its close ally. China said that an “initial probe” had shown that leaders of Sunday’s attack on a restaurant, in which 11 people died, had received explosives and firearms training in Pakistan-based camps of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, also known as ETIM. The allegation is striking because of China's close relationship with Pakistan, and because China is echoing similar complaints by the U.S., India and Afghanistan that Pakistan isn't doing enough to stop terrorism. <#stdurl http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=7903&Cat=13 "The News (Pakistan)"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=882 "5-Aug-11 News -- Markets plunge 5% on Thursday over bad economic news"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110804 4-Aug-11 World View -- UN Security Council condemns Syria's regime =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110804.head 4-Aug-11 World View -- UN Security Council condemns Syria's regime =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110804.keys Generational Dynamics, Syria, Hama, Bashar al-Assad, UN Security Council, Lebanon, Russia, iran, famine, Somalia, Pakistan, Karachi, Mojahir, Taliban, euro crisis =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110804.loc ww2010.weblog.log1108 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110804.date 4-Aug-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110804.txt1 Europeans are 'astonished' at growing euro financial crisis =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110804.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syrian tanks move into center of Hama" <#inc ww2010.pic g110803.jpg right "" "Tanks in Hama, Syria, after heavy shelling in the city (Reuters)"#> The Syrian regime's massacre of the city of Hama that began on Sunday continued on Wednesday as tank and rocket fire targeted civilian neighborhoods, and prevented people from escaping. <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-syria-hama-20110804,0,7395291.story "LA Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "UN Security Council condemns Syria's regime" The continuing slaughter of unarmed Syrians by Bashar al-Assad's regime is outraging the international community, so much so that the 15-member United Nations Security Council on Wednesday actually approved unanimously a statement which "condemns the widespread violations of human rights and the use of force against civilians by the Syrian authorities." Security Council rules require that such a statement be adopted unanimously for it to become official, and so there have been months of acrimonious negotiations over the wording. Thus, Lebanon reluctantly didn't block the resolution, but as soon as it passed, Lebanon disavowed the statement. <#stdurl http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/un-hammers-out-condemnation-of-syrian-attacks-on-civilians/story-e6frg6so-1226108075970 "AFP"#> Russia particularly opposed any UN resolution that imposed sanctions on Syria. This follows an agreement between Russia and Iran that Russia would block any strong resolution condemning Iran's ally Bashar al-Assad. In return, Iran would cooperate more closely with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in its nuclear program. Furthermore, Russia would work to get some of the sanctions against Iran removed. Russia's plan has been approved by U.S. and European governments, since it's becoming clear that nothing has the slightest effect on slowing Tehran's nuclear momentum <#stdurl http://debka.com/article/21171/ "Debka"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Famine spreads in Somalia" The east African famine has spread to three new regions, leaving the entire southern Somalia likely to be declared a famine zone witin the next six weeks. Millions of people face starvation, and food aid is prevented from reaching many people because much of southern Somalia is controlled by al-Shabab Islamist militants who last year banned food aid and forced many aid groups out of the region. <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/somali-famine-spreads-to-three-new-areas/2011/08/03/gIQAdz2osI_story.html "Washington Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pakistan deploys hundreds of extra troops to tackle Karachi violence" With ethnic and political violence responsible for over 300 deaths in Karachi, Pakistan has deployed hundreds of extra troops to Karachi to tackle the violence. Most of the violence is between two groups. One group is the Mohajir, the descendants of people who came to Pakistan after the partition of India; and the other group is Pashtun immigrants from Pakistan's tribal areas. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/8679430/Pakistan-deploys-hundreds-of-extra-troops-to-tackle-Karachi-violence.html "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Europeans are 'astonished' at growing euro financial crisis" Europeans had expected the bailout of Greece two weeks ago to contain Europe's financial crisis, but now they are beginning to panic, as the crisis spreads to Spain and Italy. EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy tried to counter rising bond yields for Italy and Spain by saying, "Astonishingly, since our [bailout] summit, the cost of borrowing has increased again for a number of euro area countries. I say astonishingly, because all macro economic fundamentals point in the opposite direction." As I've explained repeatedly, the "macro economic fundamentals" he talks about are based on models developed in the 1970s and 1980s, when the generations of Great Depression survivors were running things. Today, with the Great Depression survivors gone, those models are wrong. Europe and America are both headed for a major financial crisis and stock market panic. The worst is far from over. <#stdurl http://euobserver.com/?aid=32675 "EU Observer"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=881 "4-Aug-11 World View -- UN Security Council condemns Syria's regime"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110803b 3-Aug-11 News -- Possible bond panic is in process, after can-kicking debt ceiling deal =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110803b.head 3-Aug-11 News -- Possible bond panic is in process, after can-kicking debt ceiling deal =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110803b.keys Generational Dynamics, debt ceiling deal, bond panic, Brussels, Washington, Greece, Italy, Spain, Cyprus, bailout =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110803b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1108 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110803b.date 3-Aug-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110803b.txt1 Bond panic in Europe =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110803b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Possible bond panic is in process, after can-kicking debt ceiling deal" Mainstream economists and analysts expected the stock market to rise on Tuesday, after the uncertainty about raising the debt ceiling was resolved by a bill passed by Congress. Instead, stocks on Wall Street fell 2%. As usual, mainstream economists were wrong. <#inc ww2010.pic g110802.jpg center "" "Congress leaves for a taxpayer-paid four week vacation in the sun, as Spain's prime minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero has been forced to abandon holiday plans because of financial crisis. (AFP)"#> When the bailout of Greece was announced a couple of weeks ago, at least the Europeans got two or three days of euphoria out of it, before it all fell apart into bitter recriminations. In Washington, the euphoria was almost nonexistent, and the bitter recriminations began instantly. The Brussels agreement and the Washington agreement have one huge thing in common: Neither of them did anything but "kick the can down the road." In particular, the debt ceiling agreement sets up some kind of super-committee that's going to meet this fall and decide on budget cuts and tax increases. And the budget cuts won't actually cut anything -- they'll only slow the budget growth a little. The situation in Washington is just as chaotic as it was before the agreement, except that the debt ceiling got raised, which everyone knew was going to happen anyway, one way or another. However, investors were swayed by one piece of bad economic data after another:
"[T]here is one big armed gang in Syria, and it's named the Syrian government. I think we can safely say it's full-on warfare by the Syrian government on its own people. This full-on warfare in which the government is engaged in today, I think, amounts to nothing less than a last act of utter desperation. They're killing their own people, they're sending their tanks into their own cities. It's ridiculous. ... There is one big armed gang in Syria and it's named the Syrian government."<#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jRK1ErOtltufk8anosSE8Ugr6bpQ?docId=CNG.a1c17e374b3c060c86c086f0fb2f62ab.ed1 "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Taliban take credit for suicide bombing in Afghanistan" <#inc ww2010.pic g110731b.jpg right "" "A policemen stands guard at site of suicide bombing in Lashkar Gah on Sunday (Xinhua)"#> Ten Afghan police officers were killed Sunday when a suicide bomber detonated a car bomb outside the main police compound in the southern town of Lashkar Gah in Afghanistan, an area where coalition forces have turned full security responsibility over to Afghans. The Taliban have targeted many of the seven areas that are among the first phase of the transition to draw down U.S. troops. Sunday’s assault is the latest in a recent string of attacks that have included the assassination of numerous high-profile military and civil officials. The transition to a more independent Afghan security force is part of a gradual plan to withdraw U.S. and NATO forces by 2014. <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/suicide-bomber-kills-10-afghan-officers-1-child-outside-police-headquarters/2011/07/31/gIQAt6cskI_story.html "Washington Post"#> Because of the continuing threat posed by a resurgent Taliban, Britain is considering doubling the tour of duty of British combat forces from 6 to 12 months, in preparation for withdrawal by 2014. In particular, those involved in "mentoring" Afghan forces will be emphasized. <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/aug/01/british-military-afghanistan-tour-duty "Guardian"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Violence between Uighurs and Han returns to China's Xinjiang province" Two years ago, in July 2009, there was a massive riot by ethnic Uighurs in China's Xinjiang province. (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e090707 ""China's Xinjiang province is scene of violent anti-government protests""#>) The Uighurs were protesting discimination from Han Chinese, and the Beijing government's policy of massively relocating Han Chinese into Xinjian to dilute the Uighur population. China violently crushed the protests, but suddenly new violence is occurring. Over the weekend, several incidents occurred that the Chinese are calling "terrorism." At least 14 people were killed, and there may or may not have been a bomb involved. <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-china-kashgar-20110801,0,412853.story "LA Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China imposes media ban on rail crash coverage" China's government, still shocked by the extent of public fury over the bullet train collision last weekend, is attempting to cut off protests by restricting further press coverage of the accident. According to an official statement issued on Friday, "All local media, including newspapers, magazines and websites must rapidly cool down the reports of the incident. [Editors] are not allowed to publish any reports or commentaries, except positive news or information released by the authorities." However, the ban itself is generating more outrage. Angry postings on Weibo, the Chinese equivalent of Twitter, have continued, suggesting that the ban may backfire. What links this story to the previous one (on Uighurs) is the Chinese Communist Party's overwhelming paranoic fear of a mass rebellion. <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4f08e9f8-bb55-11e0-a7c8-00144feabdc0.html "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Mexico arrests killer of 1500, including U.S. Consulate employee" <#inc ww2010.pic g110731c.jpg right "" "Jose Antonio Acosta Hernandez gets 'perp walk' treatment (AP)"#> Mexican authorities have arrested on Sunday a former federal police officer and Juarez drug cartel leader, accused of ordering 1,500 killings during a campaign of terrorism along the U.S.-Mexico border. Jose Antonio Acosta Hernandez, nicknamed "El Diego," is also accused of masterminding the attack last year that killed a U.S. Consulate employee, her husband and the husband of another Consulate worker in Ciudad Juarez. <#stdurl http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jul/31/suspect-arrested-in-slayings-of-us-consulate-emplo/ "Washington Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Chavez wants to increase OPEC's oil quota for Venezuela" President Hugo Chavez said Friday that Venezuela's oil production quota within OPEC should increase now that its proven crude reserves have grown. Earlier this month, OPEC recognized Venezuela as the country with the biggest proven oil reserves in the world, saying that with 296.5 billion barrels it now surpasses Saudi Arabia. "The more reserves you have, the higher the quota you have," Chavez said. <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9OPMT7G0.htm "AP"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=872 "1-Aug-11 World View -- Syria's regime massacres hundreds"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110731 31-Jul-11 World View -- Major social change in Turkey =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110731.head 31-Jul-11 World View -- Major social change in Turkey =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110731.keys Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Libya, Abdel Fatah Younes, National Transitional Council, TNC, Egypt, Cairo, Tahrir Square, salafists, Muslim Brotherhood, Israel =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110731.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110731.date 31-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110731.txt1 Egypt's salafists dominate Friday's rally in Tahrir Square =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110731.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Resignation of Turkey's military commanders signals major social changes" <#inc ww2010.pic g110730b.jpg right "" "Recep Tayyip Erdogan"#> Following the mass resignation of senior military officers that we <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110730 "reported"#> yesterday, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed on Saturday to press ahead with plans for a new consitution. "I believe our biggest duty is to prepare a new constitution, democratic and liberal, without shortcomings and meeting the needs of today. Turkey cannot continue on its path with a constitution prepared in the extraordinary conditions of a period when democracy was shelved," said Erdogan, alluding to the time after a 1980 coup when the current charter was prepared. <#stdurl http://www.todayszaman.com/news-252187-erdogan-focuses-on-constitution-as-turkeys-top-brass-quit.html "Zaman"#> The military has considered itself to be the protector of the secular Turkey, and successfully thrown out civilian governments through four coups d'état to prove it. However, a generational shift has made itself felt in the last ten years with the rise of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by Erdogan, and a corresponding rise of traditional conservative social values, although Erdogan eschews the label "Islamist." Instead of the military overthrowing the civil government, this time the government overthrew the military and firmly established civilian control of the military. However, there are sharp divisions between the secular and conservative, and they are just as divisive to Turkish politics as the split between the left and the right is to American politics. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jv2VgLy6awN2xHP4UyJcc2lfvlgg?docId=a7fa54d5ecc340e08e3e2ac81426bbc0 "AP"#> and <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/30/us-turkey-military-analysis-idUSTRE76T0ZU20110730 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Killing of Libyan rebel military commander raises concerns" The National Transitional Council (NTC), which has just been recognized by the UK as the only legitimate government of Libya, is causing concern over the conflicting stories about the killing on Friday of Abdel Fatah Younes, a Gaddafi defector who had been serving as commander in chief of the rebel army. Some stories say that Younes had been arrested prior to the killing, while others say merely that the TNC had some questions for him. It's not known who did the killing, but a rebel faction is considered most likely. Another possibility is that Gaddafi's forces got to him, while Gaddafi has been blaming the assassination on al-Qaeda. <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/07/20117301751273757.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Egypt's salafists dominate Friday's rally in Tahrir Square" <#inc ww2010.pic g110730c.jpg right "" "Protest banner reads, 'The Quran is our constitution and the Sunnah [Islamic doctrine] is our path' (Ahram)"#> Cairo's iconic Tahrir Square was packed with thousands of anti-government and anti-army protesters on Friday, but for the first time, the protests were dominated not by the liberal activists, but by salafist (Islamist) groups, called for setting up an Islamic state and enforcing Sharia law in Egypt. Salafists are ultraconservatives, close to Saudi Arabia's Wahhabi interpretation of Islam and more radical than the Brotherhood. They seek to emulate the austerity of Islam's early days and oppose a wide range of practices like intermingling of the sexes that they view as "un-Islamic". Many also reject all forms of Western cultural influence. However, although there were many salafist protesters, it's believed that they comprise only a small minority of the Egyptian population. <#stdurl http://213.158.162.45/~egyptian/index.php?action=news&id=20076 "Egyptian Gazette"#> and <#stdurl http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/17702/Egypt/Politics-/Islamists-win-some,-lose-some-by-overwhelming-Frid.aspx "Al-Ahram"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "'Arab Awakening' spreads to Israelis" Hundreds of thousands of Israelis took part in protests held in cities across the country on Saturday night. They were protesting the high cost of housing, food and raising children, as well as low salaries. They demanded government price controls, improved education, free education from birth, free university tuition, and quality healthcare for everyone. They also demanded better salaries and benefits for social workers, police and other public servants. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/NationalNews/Article.aspx?id=231688 "Jerusalem Post"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=871 "31-Jul-11 World View -- Major social change in Turkey"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110730b 30-Jul-11 News -- Economists in shock over GDP report =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110730b.head 30-Jul-11 News -- Economists in shock over GDP report =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110730b.keys Generational Dynamics, GDP, Europe, Italy =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110730b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110730b.date 30-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110730b.txt1 Europe's economy continues to deteriorate =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110730b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Economists in shock over GDP report" On a story posted at 6:04 am on Friday morning, the Washington Post said, "The consensus forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg is that GDP rose at a 1.8 percent annual rate in the second quarter [from april to June], about the same as the 1.9 percent rate of growth in the first quarter [from January to March]." <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/political-economy/post/no-rosy-outlook-for-fridays-gdp-report/2011/07/28/gIQAFh3gfI_blog.html "Washington Post"#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110729.jpg center "" "On the streets of New York (Reuters)"#> The Commerce Department released th GDP figures at 8:30 am on Friday, and they were stunningly worse than economists predicted, according to <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/29/us-usa-economy-idUSTRE7662I420110729 "Reuters:"#>
"July 29, 2011: BEA Reports 1Q-2011 and "Great Recession" Far Worse Than We Were Previously Told Included in the BEA's first ("Advance") estimate of second quarter 2011 GDP were significant downward revisions to previously published data, some of it dating back to 2003. Astonishingly, the BEA even substantially cut their annualized GDP growth rate for the quarter that they "finalized" just 35 days ago -- from an already disappointing 1.92% to only 0.36%, lopping over 81% off of the month-old published growth rate before the ink had completely dried on the "final" in their headline number. And as bad as the reduced 0.36% total annualized GDP growth was, the "Real Final Sales of Domestic Product" for the first quarter of 2011 was even lower, at a microscopic 0.04%. And the revisions to the worst quarters of the "Great Recession" were even more depressing, with 4Q-2008 pushed down an additional 2.12% to an annualized "growth" rate of -8.90%. The first quarter of 2009 was similarly downgraded, dropping another 1.78% to a devilishly low -6.66% "growth" rate. And the cumulative decline from 4Q-2007 "peak" to 2Q-2009 "trough" in real GDP was revised downward nearly 50 basis points to -5.14%, now officially over halfway to the technical definition of a full fledged depression. One of the consequences of the above revisions to history is that the BEA headline "Advance" estimate of second quarter GDP annualized growth rate (1.29%) is magically some 0.93% higher than the freshly re-minted growth rate for the first quarter. From a headline perspective, that makes for a far better report than the 0.63% drop from the previously published 1Q-2011 number -- since otherwise the new 2Q-2011 numbers would be showing an ongoing weakening of the economy."Note that today's report has downward revisions going back several years. Economists had been talking about an improving economy this whole time, while people were losing their jobs and homes and wondering what the economists were talking about. Now, with all these downward revisions, we can see that the people were right and the economists were wrong. I keep saying this, because it's important: Economists have NO IDEA what's going on. I mean, this is really amazing. The economists in Washington produced figures for Q1 that were WILDLY more optimistic than they turned out to be, and they've been overly optimistic for YEARS. It's quite possible that the most recent figure of 1.3% is also wildly optimistic. Macroeconomics models are completely static in time, and economists assume that the same macroeconomics model that worked in the 70s and 80s also work today, an assumption which is completely absurd on its face. As I've pointed out many times, economists have been consistently wrong about everything, at least since 1995. They didn't predict and can't explain the 1990s tech bubble, the real estate and credit bubbles, the financial crisis since 2007, where we are today, and what's coming next year. Their predictions are no better than flipping a coin. In fact, since they've been predicting each month for several years that real estate prices had reached a bottom and that a V-shaped recovery would begin the next quarter, their predictions are MUCH WORSE than flipping a coin. Generational Dynamics is to macroeconomics as macroeconomics is to microeconomics. Macroeconomics models aggregate microeconomics models over the entire population, and Generational Dynamics models aggregate macroeconomic models over time. In brief: The 1990s tech bubble began when the generations of Great Depression survivors retired, all at once. The credit bubble began when Gen-Xers began moving into middle management positions. And today, the current generations of people have been burned and have become extremely risk averse, and will remain risk averse for the rest of their lives. There will not be any recovery until the 2020s. Mainstream economists have no idea what they're talking about. Anyone who listens to them is going to get screwed. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Europe's economy continues to deteriorate" <#inc ww2010.pic g110729b.gif right "" "Italy 2 year bonds - 7/29/2011 - 4.3% yield"#> The economists in Europe are no better than economists in America. European economists have been using their 1980s macroeconomic models to predict that Europe would return to rapid growth and would wipe out any debt. But there's been no V-shaped recovery in Europe, either. Two-year bond yields (interest rates) for Italy and Spain continue to increase, while those for Greece are still well above 30%. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=870 "30-Jul-11 News -- Economists in shock over GDP report"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110730 30-Jul-11 World View -- Turkey's military commanders resign en masse =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110730.head 30-Jul-11 World View -- Turkey's military commanders resign en masse =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110730.keys Generational Dynamnics, Turkey, Isik Kosaner, AKP, China, anti-submarine warfare (ASW), Abdel Fatah Younes, Libya, Russia, Eli Lake, Georgia, Abkhazia, Apple, Nancy Pelosi =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110730.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110730.date 30-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110730.txt1 China confronts its weakness in anti-submarine warfare =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110730.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Mass resignation of Turkey's senior military commanders put government in crisis" <#inc ww2010.pic g110729d.jpg right "" "U.S. Gen. David Petraeus (now the designated CIA chief) poses with Turkey's Chief of Staff, Gen. Isik Kosaner, on July 18, 2011 (AP)"#> Turkey's Chief of General Staff Isik Kosaner and the commanders of the air, navy and land forces have all resigned from their posts on Friday. The resignation of so many top commanders for the first time ever in Turkey signals a deep rift with the government, led by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of the Justice and Development Party (AKP, pronounced "ahk party"). Since coming to power in 2002, the AKP and the army have had a very difficult relationship that has been continually deteriorating. Ever since Ataturk founded Turkey in 1924, Turkey has been an ostentatiously secular country, abandoning its Ottoman Empire role as leader of the Muslim world. The AKP has sought to restore Turkey's Muslim identity, leading to policy clashes with the army. The army was accused of a coup plot in 2003, and again in 2007. This has led to the arrest of hundreds of army officers, finally leading to Friday's mass resignation. <#stdurl http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=top-military-brass-resign-from-posts-2011-07-29 "Hurriyet (Ankara)"#> The event triggering the mass resignation occurred on Friday morning, when an Istanbul court accepted an indictment saying that some military generals ordered their subordinates to create anti-government websites and disseminate propaganda against the AKP, as well as some religious communities in Turkey. The suspects are being accused of “attempting to overthrow the government” and of “leading and being a member of an armed terror organization.” They are also accused of cataloging military officers according to their religious or political beliefs, possibly for future reference. Fourteen officers on active duty, four retired military officers and a civilian public servant were accused in the indictment. <#stdurl http://www.todayszaman.com/news-252041-court-accepts-indictment-in-propaganda-websites-case.html "Zaman (Istanbul)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China confronts its weakness in anti-submarine warfare" As China continues to spend massively on military hardware, as it prepares for a near-future all-out war with the United States, Beijing is deploying its first aircraft carrier, and continues to upgrade its array of lethal anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs). However, Beijing is beginning to confront its weaknesses in anti-submarine warfare (ASW), and looking to fill the gap with unconventional operations, such as unmanned underwater vehicles, or even refitting fishery vehicles with an ASW helicopter, ASW torpedoes and a towed array sonar. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38252&tx_ttnews[backPid]=25&cHash=b9095bce2d16bad77a4ca93444b1a656 "Jamestown"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Assassination of Libya's rebel general may trigger tribal conflict" <#inc ww2010.pic g110729e.jpg right "" "The body of Abdel Fatah Younes is carried through the streets of Benghazi on Friday (Getty)"#> The assassination of Libyan rebel commander Abdel Fatah Younis, that we <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110729 "reported"#> yesterday, is having broader ramifications. Libya's rebel Transitional National Council (TNC), which was just recognized by the UK as the only legitimate government of Libya, is composed of representatives of a number of tribes which have not always been friendly to one another. Younis is a member of the Obeidi tribe, and many of that tribe are now turning against the TNC. <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/youness-assassination-could-trigger-tribal-warfare-2328629.html "Independent"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "CIA: Russia implicated in attempted bombing of American embassy in Tblisi Georgia" Investigative reporting by Washington Times' Eli Lake has uncovered a secret CIA report that Russia's military in Abkhazia is behind a spate of bombings across Georgia in September, including a 22-Sep-2010 bombing attempt on the U.S. Embassy in Tblisi. The U.S. administration has kept the charges quiet in order not to upset its new "reset" policy, seeking closer ties with Russia. Russian officials have denied the charges and accused Georgia of trying to foment a propaganda campaign. They also accused the Washington Times of trying to trigger a second propaganda wave. Russian involvement was discovered when a military official offered to help with the casualties of an explosion that had never occurred, as the bomb had been defused. <#stdurl http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jul/21/russian-agent-linked-to-us-embassy-blast/ "Washington Times 7/21"#>, <#stdurl http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jul/26/us-report-russia-tied-to-embassy-blast/ "7/26"#> and <#stdurl http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jul/28/clinton-raised-issue-of-a-russian-link-to-bombing-/ "7/28"#>, and <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38241&tx_ttnews[backPid]=27&cHash=fcc222272c546e2dba74631e72267c09 "Jamestown"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "France advocates recognizing Israel as a Jewish state" Israel's diplomatic officials have reacted very positively to to a statement by France's Foreign Minister Alain Juppe saying that any solution to the Middle East conflict would need to recognize Israel as the nation-state for the Jewish people. The move seen as a signal to Palestinian Authority regarding language that the European Union might support in a UN resolution recognizing a Palestinian state. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=231285 "Jerusalem Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Apple's cash reserves surpass US government operating balance" New figures from the U.S. Treasury Department indicate that the government has a total operating cash balance of $73.768 billion, less than Apple Inc.'s own cash reserves of $75.876 billion. <#stdurl http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/11/07/28/apples_76b_in_cash_reserves_surpass_us_government_operating_balance.html "Apple Insider"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Nancy Pelosi just wants to save the world" <#inc ww2010.pic g110729c.jpg right "" "Nancy Pelosi"#> Nancy Pelosi on July 28, 2011: "What we’re trying to do is save the world from the Republican budget. We’re trying to save life on this planet as we know it today." <#stdurl http://pajamasmedia.com/tatler/2011/07/28/nancy-pelosi-just-wants-to-save-the-world/ "PJ Tatler"#> Nancy Pelosi on July 28, 2008: "I’m trying to save the planet; I’m trying to save the planet. I will not have this debate trivialized by their excuse for their failed policy. I respect the office that I hold. And when you win the election, you win the majority, and what is the power of the speaker? To set the agenda, the power of recognition, and I am not giving the gavel away to anyone." <#stdurl http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0708/12122.html "Politico"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=870 "30-Jul-11 News -- Economists in shock over GDP report"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110729b 29-Jul-11 News -- Europeans losing patience with Washington gridlock =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110729b.head 29-Jul-11 News -- Europeans losing patience with Washington gridlock =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110729b.keys Generational Dynamics, Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany, Italy, Greece, credit rating, Cyprus, Demitris Christofias =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110729b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110729b.date 29-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110729b.txt1 Are there any adults in the room? =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110729b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Europeans losing patience with Washington gridlock" European leaders have long expressed confidence that the US would find a resolution to its ongoing debt impasse. But now there is growing concern that it won't, according to <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,777121,00.html#ref=nlint "Spiegel."#> German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble says, "Everyone in the US should be aware of their responsibility for the global financial markets." <#inc ww2010.pic g110728.jpg center "" "Angela Merkel and Wolfgang Schäuble in June (AP)"#> Schäuble added a laugh line: "In the euro-zone we haven't managed to solve all of our problems. But we have at least taken an important step." <#inc ww2010.pic g110728b.gif right "" "Italy 2 year bonds - 7/28/2011 - 4.2% yield"#> As we've been reporting, the default of Greece's debt as certain, and contagion to Italy and Spain is also certain. It took only four days to show that the markets were unconvinced by last week's bailout, and Italy's bond yields are continuing their inexorable rise again. The picture above shows German Chancellor Angela Merkel talking with German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble talking in June about the bailout deal. At that time, the Germans were demanding that investors holding Greek bonds would have to be required to take a "haircut," losing some of the principal in their investment. As the deal was finally announced last week, the "haircut" would be 21%, but it would be "voluntary." Investors, mostly banks, will swap their old, rotten Greek bonds for shiny new Greek bonds backed by the EU, and theoretically therefore immune to default, though when you do the math, the haircut will be much larger (see <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110724 ""24-Jul-11 World View -- Mauldin: Greece's bond 'haircuts' are at 75-80%""#>). In case you're wondering, all this "voluntary" bond swapping hasn't taken place yet. It's supposed to take place at the end of August. So there's nothing about last week's bailout plan that's been implemented yet, despite Schäuble's claim that Europe is solving its problems. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Downgrading the U.S. credit rating" It's becoming increasingly accepted that America's AAA credit rating is soon going to be downgraded, irrespective of how the debate over the debt ceiling goes. This is because S&P Rating Service has announced that a downgrade will occur unless the government takes significant steps to reduce the debt to GDP ratio. Fox News on Thursday evening reported on the paraphrased transcript of a conference call with S&P, in which the following was said:
QUESTION: "$4 trillion number has been circulating to stabilize the debt-GDP ratio. Where does this number come from?" S&P RATINGS SERVICE: "It came from Bowles-Simpson (deficit/debt commission) and was embraced by President Obama and Rep. Paul Ryan. Actually, $4 trillion won't do the trick to stabilize debt to GDP, but would take you far along and signal seriousness. IMF says you need 7.5% of GDP to stabilize, we think it's a little more than that. Four trillion dollars would be a good down payment."These figures weren't explained, but I believe that the $4 trillion is a 10-year figure, while the 7.5% is an annual figure. Thus, if the GDP is around $14 trillion per year, then 7.5% each year for 10 years would come to $10.5 trillion. Now, it's pretty obvious that even the $4 trillion figure won't be reached, so S&P may have already committed itself to downgrading the U.S. credit rating. The lowering of America's AAA credit rating is different from default. If an agreement is reached in the next few days to raise the debt ceiling, then default will have been averted. However, the credit rating can still be lowered because the U.S. is spending a lot more than it takes in. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The Europe crisis versus the American crisis" There are parallels between the situations in Europe and America, with America about a year behind Europe in dealing with the problems. I believe that we can expect America to follow the European example in many ways, such as the following:
"There is always a point towards the end of July when the eurozone news flow drops off sharply due to the summer holidays. We may have reached that point today. Even though the situation remains hopeless, it is no longer deemed to be serious. As bond yields rise back to the pre-summit levels, the congratulatory mood among officials has given way to more recriminations for who is to blame for the poor communication. FT Deutschland echoes the criticism of a diplomat who said that EU leaders created confusion after the summit by citing wildly different figures about the scale of the implied debt reduction. He gave as an example the statement by Mark Rutte, the Dutch PM, who suggested in his final press conference that the private sector component was part of the €109bn package. (There was also confusion about the extent to which the agreement would reduce the net debt of Greece.) There was also a lack of clarity as to how the IMF will participate in the programme. Christine Lagarde said the negative market reaction was due to the complexity of the agreement, and the fact that a lot of work has yet to be done to implement the decision. The newspaper noted that there is not even a scheduled meeting for the eurogroup, which is supposed to implement the agreement."The fact is that the eurogroup's latest announcement is based on fraud and extortion. The fraud comes from misstating the figures (see <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110724 ""24-Jul-11 World View -- Mauldin: Greece's bond 'haircuts' are at 75-80%""#>), and the extortion comes from forcing major investors (mostly banks) to take "voluntary" haircuts on Greek bonds. And let's recall that European politicians have lied over and over again, and Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker was quoted as saying, "When it becomes serious, you have to lie," as we <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110511 "reported"#> in May. Blaming the renewed euro crisis on "poor communication" is absurd beyond belief (except that nothing is beyond belief these days). We've now extended to the limit the 2000s concept that fundamentals are irrelevant, and nothing matters except what you say and what you can extort. I first became aware of this insanity in 2004, when I commented, with incredulity, how "[Ben] Bernanke apparently believes that the Fed can use verbal statements, even misleading verbal statements, to affect the economy -- stock prices, interest rates (bond prices), and so forth -- in the long run!" (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e041010b ""Bernanke / The Fed congratulates itself - again - on its jawboning policy""#>) As this policy of defrauding investors and the public has increasingly failed to work, we've seen extortion applied to try to make it work. One of the worst offenders has been <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e080208 "New York Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo"#> who spent several months in 2008 helping the banks and "monoline" bond insurance companies to collude to commit fraud. And we've seen widespread fraud and extortion related to the "ObamaCare" health care bill, which I've said was <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e090725 "a proposal of economic insanity,"#> because it was just like President Nixon's wage-price controls. And journalists on CNBC and Bloomberg TV have been defrauding viewers and investors consistently by quoting price/earnings ratios (also call valuations) based on fraudulent "operating earnings" (which exclude many expenses), rather than real earnings. I had completely forgotten about an interview that I posted in February 2009 in the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2&p=2563#p2563 "Generational Dynamics Forum,"#> but never posted in the web log. Better late than never, here's the Bloomberg TV interview with Charles Minter, Director & Co-Portfolio Manager, Comstock Partners:
"We think it's just insane what Wall Street are looking at, and looking at operating earnings. It just makes no sense. Operating earnings exclude writeoffs. The only way you get people coming on the air and talking about the market being fairly valued, or undervalued, or really cheap, is to look at operating earnings, which only came into existence in the late 1980s, and became more and more popular as everybody on Wall Street needed to use them, especially during the financial mania of the late 1990s, in order to justify the prices they were paying for the S&P 500. They should have been using reported earnings, which are GAAP earnings, and we have a history of reported earnings going back for 90 years. We have no history of operating earnings."The interview was conducted by Bloomberg TV anchor Matt Miller, and after that, he would question people about operating earnings versus real earnings. He stopped doing that after a few days, I assume because some advertiser threatened his job. <#inc ww2010.pic g110727c.gif right "" "WSJ P/E ratio, July 27, 2011"#> At that time, someone pointed out to me that the Wall Street Journal was reporting P/E ratios in terms of operating earnings. I wrote a series of really nasty, mocking comments, and after two or three months, WSJ reversed itself. I don't know whether it was because of me or because of someone else, but WSJ's <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html?mod=topnav_2_3002 "Price/Earnings page"#> is publishing the S&P 500 P/E ratio based on "Trailing 12 months," which refers to real earnings during the last year, and which is the correct value to use. By the way, the current value, as of July 22, is 16.55, not the nonsense figures of 12 or 13 that you hear on CNBC or Bloomberg TV. Analysts and journalists on CNBC and Bloomberg tv ALWAYS lie when they talk about price/earnings ratios (also called valuations), as I've discussed in <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e101005 ""5-Oct-10 News -- Goldman Sachs's Cohen gives price/earnings fantasy""#> and <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e100824 ""24-Aug-10 News -- Ariel's Bobrinskoy gives price/earnings fantasy.""#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Fraud and extortion in Washington" Just as no solution exists for Europe's debt problems, it's also true that no solution exists for America's debt problems. America is in a continuing deflationary spiral, there will be no V-shaped recovery, and a default is 100% certain, now or later. Politicians on both sides are committing fraud on a continuing basis, making claims that change on an hourly basis. Extortion takes the form of, "Do it my way, or we'll have a new Great Depression." Democrats blame the problems on the Tea Party "terrorists," while Republicans blame the Obama administration "socialists." In fact, we're headed for a new Great Depression, no matter what happens in Washington. I suspect that many of the politicians already realize this, and all they're doing now is posturing so that someone else will be blamed -- which is exactly what the Europeans have been doing for well over a year. As for the current deficit ceiling battle, my expectation is that they'll do exactly what the Europeans have been doing. They'll come to some stopgap agreement that "kicks the can down the road," and they congratulate themselves for being so clever, while they blame the other side. When things start unraveling again, then the whole process will be repeated. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The war on ratings agencies" There's a very interesting war being conducted by Washington politicians on Moody's, S&P and Fitch, the three major bond ratings services. Let's first recall that the Europeans have been conducting a war on the same ratings agencies ever since they began downgrading the debt of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, over a year ago. American politicians really didn't care about the ratings agencies then, until they started talking about downgrading U.S. debt. Ratings agency officials were grilled on Wednesday for the House Financial Services committee, according to <#stdurl http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/27/news/economy/rating_agency/index.htm "CNN."#> The argument being used against ratings agencies is: "The ratings agencies gave AAA ratings to securities that turned out to be toxic. They were completely wrong in retrospect. So why should anyone believe them now?" As I've said many times, the circumstantial evidence is that ratings agencies purposely accepted fat fees from Citibank and other banks to give AAA ratings to mortgage-backed synthetic securities that they new to be defective, because they were making so much money doing so. Nonetheless, it's hypocritical to blame the messenger now. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "A warning about gold" <#inc ww2010.pic g101107b.jpg right "" "Price of gold, 1851-2010, in constant 2010 dollars (Motley Fool)"#> I've warned web site readers about investing in gold a number of times in the past, and now is a good time to repeat those warnings. The adjoining chart appears in a <#stdurl http://www.fool.com/investing/etf/2010/11/02/warning-gold-could-drop-below-500.aspx "Motley Fool"#> article from last year. As it shows, the long-term trend price of gold is about $500 per ounce. Gold is currently around $1600 per ounce, and applying the Law of Mean Reversion to the current bubble, its price is going to fall well below $500. This means that anyone investing in gold right now is expected to lose a great deal of money. The Fed and a number of economists are saying that the economy is slowing down right now. The same is happening in Europe and China. This will result in a fall in all commodities prices, forcing commodities dealers to sell their gold to pay for their losses in other commodities. This could happen next month or next year, but it's coming, and it will mean a collapse of the gold bubble. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Moody's puts 5 states on notice for possible downgrade" Moody's Investors Service has announced that if the U.S. government debt loses its AAA rating, then there are five states that will also lose their AAA ratings: Maryland, New Mexico, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia. Moody's placed the group of five under watch because of their relatively large exposure to federal funding – from Medicaid payments to government contracts and the like. And any deal to raise the debt ceiling will likely include spending cuts. <#stdurl http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/07/27/5-states-at-risk-in-the-debt-ceiling-debate/ "Fortune"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "S&P lowers Greece's ratings" Standard & Poor's on Wednesday cut Greece's sovereign credit rating further into junk territory, saying the European Union's proposed debt restructuring would put the country into "selective default". <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/27/greece-ratings-sandp-idUSN1E76Q16A20110727 "Reuters"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=868 "28-Jul-11 News -- Washington follows Brussels in fraud and extortion"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110728 28-Jul-11 World View -- Britain expels Libya's ambassador =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110728.head 28-Jul-11 World View -- Britain expels Libya's ambassador =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110728.keys Generational Dynamics, Hina Rabbani Khar, Pakistan, India, Libya, National Transitional Council, Kandahar, Afghanistan, Syria, Ramadan, Russia, International Space Station =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110728.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110728.date 28-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110728.txt1 India swoons over Pakistan's hot new Foreign Minister =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110728.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "India swoons over Pakistan's hot new Foreign Minister" <#inc ww2010.pic g110727b.jpg right "" "India's 79 year old FM S.M. Krishna poses with Pakistan's new FM Hina Rabbani Khar (AFP)"#> In her first visit to India, Pakistan's hot new Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar has drawn a flurry of flattering headlines. "Pak Puts On Its Best Face," said The Times of India. The Mail Today tabloid said:
"The 34-year-old minister scored full marks on the fashion front when she was spotted at the Delhi airport in a monotone outfit of blue -- the colour of the season. Tasteful accessories -- Roberto Cavalli sunglasses, oversized Hermes Birkin bag and classic pearl jewellery -- added a hint of glamour to her look."One blogger tweeted, "She continues to dominate all Delhi chatter." Another, referring to the monsoon season, wrote, "Even the Delhi skies are drooling." Pakistan and India are bitter enemies, so it will be interesting to see how long the honeymoon lasts. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iSNTNzHfxBd9CwcGR9l8GWUm54IA?docId=CNG.4f744593fd1d6c137e081e4d79850e22.31 "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Britain expels Libya's ambassador, recognizes rebel government" Britain's foreign minister William Hague announced that the UK has officially recognized the National Transitional Council (NTC), Libya's rebel government, as "the sole governmental authority in Libya," and has demanded that Libya's diplomats leave the country within 48 hours. Also, Britain is planning to unfreeze $150 million in frozen Libyan oil assets for the NTC. (The U.S. pays about 75% of Nato's operating costs, or about $2-3 million per day.) <#stdurl http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/africa/britain-recognises-libyan-rebels-as-only-legitimate-government "Associated Press"#> Libya's deputy foreign minister said, "We consider this is irresponsible, illegal and in violation of British and international laws." Russia has criticized such moves as following a "policy of isolation" and going beyond the UN's mandate and taking sides in a civil war." <#stdurl http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2011/07/2011727105552506145.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Mayor of Kandahar Afghanistan killed by suicide bomber" The Taliban have claimed responsibility for yet one more high-profile assassination of a Western ally in the Afghanistan war. Ghulam Haider Hamidi, the mayor of Kandahar, was killed by a suicide bomber who set off explosives concealed in his turban. Hamidi, 65, had earned a good reputation for his campaign against corruption, embezzlement, and plots by rival tribes. <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/kandahars-mayor-killed-in-suicide-attack/2011/07/27/gIQA3w0HcI_story.html "Washington Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria: Every day is Friday during Ramadan" Syrian activists have been holding massive anti-government demonstrations every week, when worshippers poured out of mosques after midday prayers. But that may change next week, when Islam's holy month, Ramadan, begins. Activists plan to take advantage of an additional daily prayer recited every day during Ramadan to expand the weekly protests to daily protests. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-27/syrian-protests-during-ramadan-may-turn-every-day-into-friday.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia announces that it will sink space station in Pacific in 2020" The International Space Station (ISS) will be de-orbited and sunk in the Pacific Ocean after 2020. "We will be forced to sink the ISS. We cannot leave it in orbit as it is a very complicated and a heavy object. There must be no space waste from it. We have agreed with our partners that the ISS would function roughly until 2020," according to the deputy head of Russia's space agency. <#stdurl http://en.rian.ru/science/20110727/165412055.html "Ria Novosti"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=868 "28-Jul-11 News -- Washington follows Brussels in fraud and extortion"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110727 27-Jul-11 World View -- China's jets pursue U.S. reconnaissance plane =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110727.head 27-Jul-11 World View -- China's jets pursue U.S. reconnaissance plane =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110727.keys Generational Dynamics, Taiwan, China, Gaza, Hamas, Mahmoud Abbas, United Nations, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Pakistan, India, Greece, Italy, Spain =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110727.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110727.date 27-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110727.txt1 Spain, Italy bond panic resumes, as bailout euphoria fades =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110727.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Taiwan's fighters intercept Chinese jets pursuing U.S. reconnaissance plane" <#inc ww2010.pic g110726b.jpg right "" "Gen Chen Bingde, China's chief military officer"#> Taiwan sent two F-16 fighters to intercept Chinese Sukhoi-27 jets purusing a U.S. reconnaissance plane into Taiwanese airspace on Monday. The two Chinese jets quickly turned around, rather than risk a collision such as occurred in 2001, killing the Chinese pilot. In that incident, the U.S. crew were detained for 11 days in a major diplomatic row. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/8663186/US-to-continue-spy-flights-after-jets-pursued-by-China-over-Taiwan.html "Telegraph"#> China's state-run news agency says that the blame for the incident lies with the U.S. for "such provocative flights, which can and will cause grave damage to relations between the two countries." Chen Bingde, the General Chief-of-Staff of the People's Liberation Army, has criticized the US naval drills in the South China Sea and attempted arms sale to Taiwan, and also urged the US to reduce or halt its military surveillance near China's coast. <#stdurl http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2011-07/27/content_12989306.htm "Xinhua"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Hamas executes two Gazans as spies for Israel, in defiance of Abbas" Gaza's Hamas government Tuesday executed a Palestinian father and son convicted of spying for Israel. Hamas officials said the men had confessed to providing Israeli forces with intelligence that helped them track down Palestinians including Hamas's chief Abdel-Aziz al-Rantissi, who was killed in a 2004 air strike on his car. The larger significance of the move was that the executions were done in defiance of Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas who, according to law, is required to approve such executions. Hamas and the PA were supposed to create a unity government, but that effort has fallen apart, and the executions are emblematic of the continuing split. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/26/us-palestinians-hamas-executions-idUSTRE76P1HN20110726 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Palestinians continue the 'march' to UN recognition of Palestine" The Palestinian Authority (PA) has made a "final decision" to pursue United Nations recognition of a Palestinian state at the opening of the U.N. General Assembly in late September. The PA ambassador announced a “march to legislation” at the UN, saying his government “can’t wait any longer for the government of Israel to negotiate with us in good faith.” Still to be decided: Whether to go before the Security Council first, hoping that the U.S. will reverse its decision to veto any request for statehood, or to go to the General Assembly first. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-26/palestinians-say-time-is-right-for-move-at-un-toward-statehood.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iran-Iraq-Syria alliance challenges Turkey" Iran has decided to unambiguously side with the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, in a split with Turkey. Turkey has been pressuring Assad to adopt reforms and give legitimacy to the Syrian opposition, while Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been appalled by Assad's savage violence and massacres of civilians, compounded by the 16,000 Syrians that have fled into refugee camps in Turkey. Iran and Turkey have been allied over Palestinian issues, but Iran is becoming concerned about Turkey's influence with the Arabs. Iran has also been courting Iraq, and so Turkey has to contend with an Iran-Iraq-Syria alliance. <#stdurl http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MG26Ak01.html "Asia Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Saudi Arabia seeks broader alliance with Jordan" On the Arab side, Saudi Arabia has been courting a relationship with Jordan. On Tuesday, press reports indicated that Saudi Arabia has granted $1 billion in aid to Jordan, to support its economy and cover its budget deficit. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-26/saudi-arabia-grants-jordan-1-billion-for-budget-al-arab-says.html "Bloomberg"#> Saudi Arabia has begun facing three major new challenges. The first is Iran. The second is the collapse of moderate Arab regimes, especially in Egypt, in the course of the "Arab Spring." And third is the growing threat posed by Al-Qaeda and other terrorists. Saudi Arabia is adopting a new strategy: they're pouring billions of dollars into buying off protests and opposing al-Qaeda; they're building new alliances with Pakistan, China and India, after the break with Washington; and they've invited Jordan to become a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), despite opposition from some other members. Al-Bawaba =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Spain, Italy bond panic resumes, as bailout euphoria fades" Relief from last week's grand bailout of Greece appears to have been short-lived, as Europe's financial situation continues to unravel. Spain's short-term cost of borrowing hit three-year highs on Tuesday, while yields on Italy's six month bonds hit their highest since November 2008. Five days after a euro zone summit agreed to a second Greek rescue, Spanish and Italian bond yields are back to the levels seen in the days before the deal was struck. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/26/us-eurozone-idUSTRE76P4OX20110726 "Reuters"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=866 "27-Jul-11 World View -- China's jets pursue U.S. reconnaissance plane"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110726 26-Jul-11 World View -- New concerns on bailout of Greece =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110726.head 26-Jul-11 World View -- New concerns on bailout of Greece =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110726.keys Generational Dynamics, Israel, PLO, Yasser Arafat, Yitzhak Rabin, Mahmoud Abbas, Moody's, Greece, Italy, Spain, Bulgaria, North Korea, South Korea =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110726.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110726.date 26-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110726.txt1 Israel considers revoking the 1993 Oslo accords =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110726.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel considers revoking the 1993 Oslo accords" <#inc ww2010.pic g110725c.jpg right "" "Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and PLO chairman Yasser Arafat signing the Oslo Accords in 1993 (Reuters)"#> Israel's National Security Council is discussing the option of revoking the 1993 Oslo Accords agreement between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), that established the framework for relations between the two governments, and created the Palestinian Authority (PA). The move would be in retaliation for the Mahmoud Abbas's plan to have the United Nations recognize the state of Palestine, based on pre-1967 borders. <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/israel-looking-into-revoking-oslo-accords-in-response-to-palestinian-un-bid-1.375060 "Haaretz"#> Israel is virulently opposed to Mahmoud Abbas's plan because recognition of Palestinian statehood by the UN General Assembly would enhance the Palestinians options, including allowing them to take Israel to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague on charges of war crimes. However, Palestinian statehood, ICC charges, and revoking the Oslo Accords would only be symbolic, and would not change life on the ground. <#stdurl http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/07/25/159317.html "Al-Arabiya"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Moody's downgrades Greece's debt" <#inc ww2010.pic g110725b.gif right "" "Greece's 2 year bond yields at 28.131%"#> Looking at the graph on the right, you might think that things have returned to normal for Greece, with 2 year bond yields (interest rates) plummeting. But then you realize that they've plummeted to a still astronomically high 28.1%. Moody's Investors Service announced on Monday that it was once again downgrading Greece's sovereign debt rating, to just a single notch above default. In doing so, Moody's warned that last week's bailout of Greece, whose main purpose was to prevent "contagion" of the crisis to Italy and Spain, was actually increasing, rather than decreasing, the danger that Europe's debt crisis could spread to Italy and Spain. Moody's said that by agreeing to write down the value of their Greek government bonds by 21%, a precedent had been set that left investors open to further "haircuts" on the sovereign debt of other countries. <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/greek-bailout-could-worsen-eu-debt-crisis-warns-moodys-2326054.html "Independent"#> In fact, although bond yields fell sharply on Friday, just after the bailout was announced, they've started to creep up again for Italy and Spain. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8659207/Eurozone-bonds-creep-upwards-over-bailout-uncertainty.html "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "American funds no longer flowing to European banks" As a side effect of the bailout, American money market funds are no longer willing to loan money to European banks, including those in Italy and Spain, for fear of losing the loan money in a default. <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1cda4056-b495-11e0-a21d-00144feabdc0.html "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The euro is 'Not a hot topic' in Bulgaria" Bulgaria is putting on hold its plans to adopt the euro as its currency. "We want to wait and see how the remaining questions for the euro zone itself are resolved," according to the country's finance minister. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-25/bulgarian-euro-not-a-hot-topic-finance-minister-djankov-says.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China's bullet train crash sours their marketing plan" The companies that manufactured China's high-speed bullet trains had hoped to sell into markets in North America and Europe, but because of the weekend crash that we <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110725 "reported"#> yesterday, "Their chances of selling high-speed trains are zero." <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-26/china-has-zero-chance-on-high-speed-train-exports-after-crash-kills-39.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.S. and South Korea maintain firm stance against North Korea" <#inc ww2010.pic g110725d.jpg right "" "Anti-war activists in Seoul wear masks of President Barack Obama, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak"#> A top diplomat from North Korea visited the United States this week to discuss the possibility of renewing stalled nuclear talks in return for money. However, the U.S. and South Korea reaffirmed their previous statements that the North Koreans must take concrete steps to demonstrate that it is serious. In return for disabling its nuclear program, which has already produced up to 10 atomic bombs, the North would receive economic aid, diplomatic recognition from the United States and a formal treaty to end the Korean War. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/25/us-korea-north-idUSTRE76N1CK20110725?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=71 "Reuters"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=864 "26-Jul-11 World View -- New concerns on bailout of Greece"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110725 25-Jul-11 World View -- Asian stocks fail to crash =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110725.head 25-Jul-11 World View -- Asian stocks fail to crash =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110725.keys Generational Dynamics, China, bullet train, Wenzhou, Greece, Paistan, ISI, Spain, Indignant protesters, United Nations, Israel, Turkey, Freedom Flotilla =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110725.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110725.date 25-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110725.txt1 China public furious at government incompetence in train disaster =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110725.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Asian stock markets fail to crash after debt ceiling talks collapse" Washington politicians predicted that Asian stock markets would crash if a debt ceiling agreement was not reached by Sunday afternoon. But no agreement was reached and as of this writing on Sunday evening, Asian stock markets have fallen 0.8%, but have not crashed. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a panic and crash will occur when it's least expected. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-24/u-s-stock-futures-dollar-decline-as-gold-gains-as-u-s-debt-talks-stall.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China public furious at government incompetence in train disaster" <#inc ww2010.pic g110724b.jpg right "" "Rescuers clear wreckage at crash site (Rex Features)"#> China's government run news service says that "substandard construction and lax safety supervision" have threatened people's lives in some regions of the country, in an article on Saturday's disastrous bullet-train accident, killing at least 35 people, and injured 200. One high-speed train rear-ended another train that had lost power and stalled, after allegedly being hit by lightning, on a bridge near the city of Wenzhou in Zhejiang province. Four coaches from one of the trains was fell off the bridge. <#stdurl http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011-07/25/content_12971615.htm "Xinhua"#> China's bloggers are expressing fury, as stories of the details of the accident come out.
"Specifically, one train (D3115) was struck by lightning and lost power. Stopped on the track, it was then impacted by the train behind it (D301) on the same track. The trains were apparently not in communication with each other because despite operating on the same tracks, they were administered by two different railway bureaus. D3115 was administered by the Shanghai Railway Bureau, and D301 by the Nanchang Railway Bureau."Not only is this massively incompetent, but furthermore, lightning strikes are a common occurrence, and they should not have stopped the train. Bullet trains in France and Japan have a much better safety record. "If nothing else, I suppose this accident in China will once and for all dispel the rumors that China copied their high-speed train from Japan’s." <#stdurl http://chinageeks.org/2011/07/death-on-the-high-speed-rail/ "China Geeks"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China sees investment opportunities in Greece" Thanks to Greece's debt crisis, and the need to privatize and sell off assets, China sees a good opportunity to invest in Greece. <#stdurl http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_24/07/2011_399643 "Kathimerini"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pakistan's spy agency watching and intimidating Pakistanis in US" Operatives of Pakistan's military spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, working in the U.S., have been posing as FBI agents to stalk and intimidate Pakistani journalists, scholars and others living here. <#stdurl http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2011/07/24/pakistans_spy_agency_keeping_tabs_on_diaspora_in_us/ "Boston Globe"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Spain's 'Indignant' austerity protesters walk across country" <#inc ww2010.pic g110724c.jpg right "" "Protesters in Madrid (AFP)"#> Thousands of Spain's "Indignant" protesters have been braving 100+ degree temperatures and walking across the country on foot for weeks, before arriving in Madrid on Sunday. They're protesting unemployment and the economic crisis. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hYlg1Biy6jOw8MgehPlWDxeAoY7A?docId=CNG.aa2204e49b3820f2f1ab5a4a771183bd.971 "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "UN delays flotilla report as Israel considers apologizing to Turkey" The UN report on the "Freedom Flotilla" that was intended to break Israel's sea blockade of Gaza but instead ended up in a military confrontation with Israel that cost the lives of nine Turkish activists, is being delayed again. The report had been delayed twice before, and was scheduled for release on Wednesday, before this latest postponement. The postponement was requested by Israel to give them more time to negotiate with Turkey over the apology that Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has demanded, to normalize relations between the two countries. Israel's nationalistic Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman had previously threatened to walk out of the coalition government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but on Sunday Lieberman backed off from that threat. <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/un-delays-flotilla-report-as-jerusalem-and-ankara-keep-talking-1.375066 "Haaretz"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=863 "25-Jul-11 World View -- Asian stocks fail to crash"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110724b 24-Jul-11 News -- Norway in shock over 'blond on blond' terrorist violence =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110724b.head 24-Jul-11 News -- Norway in shock over 'blond on blond' terrorist violence =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110724b.keys Generational Dynamics, Norway, Anders Behring Breivik =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110724b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110724b.date 24-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110724b.txt1 Who's to blame for right-wing violence? =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110724b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Norway in shock over 'blond on blond' terrorist violence" Norwegians thought they were immune to this kind of violence. Norway is the land of peace and tranquility. They are the peace brokers, involved in conflict resolution, proud of their country and of doing good around the world, according to the <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/norway/8657204/This-tragedy-marks-the-end-of-Norways-innocence.html "Telegraph."#> Oslo is the home of the Nobel Peace Prize committee that lectures the rest of the world on right and wrong. <#inc ww2010.pic g110723.jpg center "" "Oslo government building"#> 32-year-old Anders Behring Breivik of Oslo, a self-described right-wing fundamentalist Christian anti-immigration activist, has been apprehended for the horrendous acts. First, A huge bomb blast targeting Oslo's main government building caused damage for blocks away. Then Breivik traveled to Utoya island, where there was a summer camp. He spent 90 minutes shooting young teenagers, killing 82 of them. The terrorist acts are thought to be targeted at the Labor Party. The Prime Minister is from the Labor Party, though he wasn't in his office at the time of the blast. And the summer camp was sponsored by the Labor Party for kids who aspired to be politicians. <#inc ww2010.pic g110723b.jpg right "" "Mourners gather around an improvised shring in Oslo (Reuters)"#> "Everyone thought that he was a Muslim, a Pakistani, or someone with dark skin," says an Oslo teen quoted by <#stdurl http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2011/0723/In-Norway-a-sense-of-bewilderment-and-vows-to-stand-together "CS Monitor,"#> "but he was Norwegian and he did this to his own people." A woman said, "It’s just unbelievable that such a thing can happen here in Norway." Right-wing violence was supposed to be under control. There has been right-wing violence in the past, but it was generally limited to property damage and knife violence. The entire country has had about 40 murders per year. No one ever dreamed of an al-Qaeda style mass killing. The horrendous terrorist acts are raising questions about the police, according to <#stdurl http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/world/52246781-68/police-norway-shooting-island.html.csp "AP."#> Why did it take 90 minutes for police to stop the massacre on Utoya? Norwegian police aren't armed normally, so when the local police arrived, they immediately concluded that they couldn't do anything, since they were unarmed. They called in a SWAT team, who had to drive to the scene, and then find a boat, because their helicopter wasn't on standby. That's what took 90 minutes to arrive. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Who's to blame for right-wing violence?" Some people are blaming the terrorist attacks on the rise of right-wing populist parties in several countries. Breivik himself was an active member of the anti-immigration Progress Party, the second largest group in Norway's politics, according to the <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/norway/8656966/Norway-attacks-Anders-Behring-Breivik-was-active-member-of-far-right-party.html "Telegraph."#> The "far right" anti-immigrant Swedish Democrats sprang from nowhere to a sizable number of votes last year. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e100921 ""21-Sep-10 News -- Sweden shocked at anti-immigrant victories.""#>) And just recently, Denmark implemented permanent border checks on its borders with Germany and Sweden. (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110706b ""6-Jul-11 News -- Denmark's border controls called a 'European crisis'""#>) <#inc ww2010.pic g110723e.jpg right "" "Anders Behring Breivik"#> Of course, the leaders of these movements have nothing to do with the kind of violence perpetrated by Breivik, but in today's political climate of universal ideological hatred, politicians on the left will not hesitate to score political points by making such accusations. Even without such direct accusations, there are more nuanced indirect accusations: That these rising right-wing parties are creating a social atmosphere and environment that encourages right-wing extremists like Breivik. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there is a correlation between the rise of right-wing parties and the rise of right-wing violence, but it's not a causal relationship. The common cause is that during the last decade, the survivors of WW II have all but disappeared, pushing the world deeper into a generational Crisis era. And what characterizes all generational Crisis eras is an increase in nationalism and xenophobia. These factors encourage the rise of right-wing violence, just as increasing financial crises encourage the rise of left-wing violence. Ideologues on the left and right may eschew violence, but they encourage mutual hatred. We'll now have to watch to see the effect of this massacre in Norway. Left-wing violence is increasing anyway, as labor unions and socialists react to the forced austerity plans. It's possible that the Norway massacre will be a one-time event, or it may encourage more right-wing violence, especially targeting the waves of Muslim immigrants from Turkey and north Africa. The terrorist attack in Norway may cause horrendous outcomes that go beyond even the death and destruction that occurred on Friday. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=861 "24-Jul-11 News -- Norway in shock over 'blond on blond' terrorist violence"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110724 24-Jul-11 World View -- Mauldin: Greece's bond 'haircuts' are at 75-80% =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110724.head 24-Jul-11 World View -- Mauldin: Greece's bond 'haircuts' are at 75-80% =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110724.keys China, bullet train, Syria, derailment, Cairo, Egypt, Bank of Ireland, default, John Mauldin, Soros Fund, Hugo Chavez, Ramadan, food prices =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110724.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110724.date 24-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110724.txt1 High-speed bullet train falls off bridge in China, killing 22 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110724.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "High-speed bullet train falls off bridge in China, killing 22" <#inc ww2010.pic g110723c.jpg right "" "Wreckage of train after two carriages fell off a bridge (AP)"#> At least 22 people were confirmed dead, and more than 100 people have been sent to hospital, after two coaches of a bullet train fell off a bridge in east China's Zhejiang Province late Saturday. The accident comes a day after China announced an investigation into a third senior railways ministry official. Officials at the Ministry of Transportation and Railways have been accused of corruption in the building of the train infrastructure, siphoning off millions of dollars while taking shortcuts and using low-quality materials in construction. <#stdurl http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-07/24/c_131004925.htm "Xinhua"#> and <#stdurl http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL3E7IM12620110722 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Bank of Ireland defaults on bond payments" The Bank of Ireland has suffered a "credit event," after refusing to buy back €2.6 billion of subordinated debt earlier this month, according to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA). The ISDA has set July 28 for an auction to settle credit default swaps (CDSs) that insured the defaulting bonds. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/22/bankofireland-idUSWLB837520110722 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Mauldin: Greece's bond 'haircuts' are at 75-80%" EU officials and bankers plan to conduct their "voluntary" swap of privately-held Greek bonds for AAA rated longer maturity bonds at the end of August. The strategy will be to do the swap across Europe all at once, so that Greece will be in "selective default" or "restricted default" only for a few days. The private sector investors, mostly banks, will take a 21% "haircut," thus contributing €37 billion to the bailout. (What could possibly go wrong with a clever strategy like that?) <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/23/us-eurozone-timing-idUSTRE76M0VZ20110723 "Reuters"#> The official statement from European officials on the most recent bailout of Greece requires the banks to "voluntarily" take a relatively benign 21% loss of their principal in Greek bonds. But the 21% computation is based on faulty assumptions, and if you do the math with realistic assumptions, then the "haircut" will be more like 75-80%. This is the sixth time in 18 months that European leaders have announced a definitive solution to the euro crisis, and this is the sixth time that the claims are fraudulent. And it won't be just Greece -- the same haircuts will be demanded by Ireland and Portugal, causing Greece's problems to spread throughout Europe. <#stdurl http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/07/kicking-the-can-down-the-road-one-more-time/ "John Mauldin"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Soros Fund has moved to a 75% cash position" With the euro zone facing an extremely serious crisis, reports are surfacing that the Soros Fund Management’s $25.5 billion Quantum Endowment Fund has "pulled back" and moved to a 75% cash position. The fund has already lost over 6% this year. <#stdurl http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2011/07/22/soros-funds-cash-stash-up-to-75-hedgies-ponder-global-sovereign-debt-issues/ "Barrons"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria blames sabotage for train derailment" <#inc ww2010.pic g110723d.jpg right "" "Wreckage of derailed train (Reuters)"#> Syrian authorities blamed sabotage by opposition protesters for the derailment of a train on Saturday, The train was carrying 480 passengers and five crew members, and was traveling to Damascus. The driver was killed instantly. Officials said the saboteurs ripped up a section of the tracks, causing the train to derail and the front carriage to catch fire in the crash. <#stdurl http://gulfnews.com/news/region/syria/syrian-officials-claim-opposition-derailed-train-1.842175 "Gulf News"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Clashes in central Cairo injure more than 231" Thousands of pro-reform protesters calling for the "downfall" of the country's ruling military council were marching toward the military headquarters on Saturday, when they were attacked with knives and sticks and petrol bombs by groups of pro-army protesters. 213 people were injured. <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/20117231893185389.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Venezuela's Hugo Chavez receiving chemo therapy in Cuba" Venezuela's president Hugo Chávez will receive his second round of chemotherapy in Cuba, after receiving two operations last month, one for a pelvic abscess and another to remove a cancerous tumor. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/venezuelas-chavez-faces-second-chemo-treatment/ "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "As Ramadan approaches, hoarders are pushing up food prices" Ramadan this year will run from August 1 to August 30. For the last two months, speculators have been hoarding food items that consumer more during Ramadan, including sugar and cooking oil, pushing prices up. <#stdurl http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=59179&Cat=3&dt=7/24/2011 "The News (Karachi)"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=861 "24-Jul-11 News -- Norway in shock over 'blond on blond' terrorist violence"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110723 23-Jul-11 World View -- Norway terrorist attack kills 17 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110723.head 23-Jul-11 World View -- Norway terrorist attack kills 17 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110723.keys Generational Dynamics, Olso, Norway, Jens Stoltenberg, Nicolas Sarkozy, Angela Merkel, Bashar al-Assad, Naksa Day, Palestinian refugees, Syria, Mikhail Bogdanov, Philippines, South China Sea, Spratly Islands, Pagasa Island, Karachi =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110723.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110723.date 23-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110723.txt1 Fitch gives Greece's bond a temporary 'selective default' rating =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110723.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Dual terrorist attack in Norway kills at least 17 people" <#inc ww2010.pic g110722b.jpg right "" "Aftermath of terrorist bombing in central Oslo (EPA)"#> A meticulously planned terrorist attack on Norway, the worst atrocity since World War II, killed at least 17 people. First, a bomb blew up at the center of Oslo, near the government's headquarters, although Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg was not in the building at the time. Then, hours later, a gunman posing as a policeman rampaged through Utoya, an island 20 miles away, firing at teenagers in a youth camp organized by the ruling Labor party. At least 20 people were seen lying dead in the water. <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/terror-returns-to-hit-norway-2319030.html "Independent"#> Because of the complexity of the attack, it's believed that the gunman was part of a larger group attacking Norway's government. The shooter is in custody, and it's been confirmed that he's Norwegian. Authorities are leaning towards suspecting right-wing extremists rather than an Islamist group. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/norway/8655978/Norway-attack-who-was-behind-the-attack.html "Telegraph"#> Memos from 2009, published by Wikileaks, reveal that US authorities thought that Norway's security service was "in over its head," and that the country was in denial about terrorism. Norwegians felt that their country felt "immune" from terrorism, and "that terrorism happens elsewhere, not in peaceful Norway." <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/norway/8655964/WikiLeaks-files-show-Norway-unprepared-for-terror-attack.html "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Fitch gives Greece's bond a temporary 'selective default' rating" Analysts in Europe and around the world are popping the champagne corks and making bubbly statements about the wonderful bailout of Greece that ministers in Brussels agreed to on Thursday. The IMF and European taxpayes will be shelling out €109 billion, while private bondholders, mostly banks, will "voluntarily" contribute another €50 billion. Fitch Ratings said that the deal represented "an important and positive step towards securing financial stability." However, as expected, Fitch slapped a “restricted default” status on Athens, and warned of a “potential precedent” for Ireland and Portugal. Fitch also promised that the default rating might be only temporary, and that it could be lifted, once its bonds have been exchanged under the EU’s rescue plan. <#stdurl http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/0723/1224301202449.html "Irish Times"#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110722c.jpg right "" "Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel during negotiations (AFP)"#> An interesting analysis, comparing the current financial crisis with Europe's financial crisis following the 1929 Wall Street crash, concludes that the current crisis will "give Germany the empire it’s always dreamed of," because Germany will dominate the "fiscal union" being created, making the governments of the peripheral countries increasingly irrelevant. <#stdurl http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/100098260/this-crisis-will-give-germany-the-empire-its-always-dreamed-of/ "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Despite Assad's atrocities, Syrian protesters flood the streets" It's Friday again, and up to a million people poured out of mosques after midday prayers and filled the streets with anti-government protests, defying numerous atrocities by the security forces of president Bashar al-Assad. At least four people were killed, while thousands have been killed since the protests began. <#stdurl http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2011/Jul-23/Massive-protests-defy-Syrian-authorities.ashx "Daily Star (Beirut)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "In a 'seismic shift', Palestinians turn against Syrian regime" In what some are calling a "seismic shift," the half million Palestinians living in Syria are turning against the Syrian regime and joining the anti-government protesters. Palestinians are furious as details have emerged of the regime's role in pushing Palestinian protesters into a deadly confrontation with Israel last month. (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110607 ""7-Jun-11 World View -- Syria implicated in 'Naksa day' deaths""#>) The confrontation is widely condemned as a move by the Syrian regime to divert attention from its own brutal crackdown. "We will not accept to be a bargaining chip for the Syrian regime," says one Palestinian refugee living in a refugee camp in Syria. <#stdurl http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/middle-east/110721/palestinians-refugees-syria-protests "Global Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia: Gaddafi has concluded that he should step down" Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Mikhail Bogdanov, tells a reporter:
"The Libyan leader has come to the conclusion that it’s high time that he should step down and leave his top-level post. The Libyan representatives arriving from Tripoli, say that a principled decision has already been taken to the effect that Muammar Gaddafi will take part neither in the political talks on settling the crisis nor on the restructuring of the State of Libya."<#stdurl http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/07/22/53593970.html "The Voice of Russia"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China protests visit by Philippine politicians to Spratly Island" China reasserted its claims to all the islands in the South China Sea, even islands historically belonging to other countries, as it lodged a protest over the recent visit of several Filipino politicians and military personnel to Pagasa Island, one of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. TV stations across China covered the visit heavily, including the singing of the Philippine national anthem and flag raising in the island. <#stdurl http://www.mindanews.com/2011/07/23/china-protests-over-philippine-politicians-visit-to-pag-asa-island/ "Minda News (Mindanao)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "15 killed in fierce Karachi Pakistan gunbattle" After five days of political and ethnic violence earlier this month that resulting in the deaths of 98 people and 150 wounded (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110710 ""10-Jul-11 World View -- Karachi Pakistan crawls back to life""#>), a new gunbattle broke out in Karachi on Friday morning. The office and house of a political activist were torched while 20 people, including three women, were injuried in areas of conflict. At least 15 people were killed in the day of protests, that took the police several hours to bring under control. <#stdurl http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=7594&Cat=13&dt=7/23/2011 "The News (Pakistan)"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=860 "23-Jul-11 World View -- Norway terrorist attack kills 17"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110722 22-Jul-11 World View -- Europeans announce bailout plan allowing Greece to default =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110722.head 22-Jul-11 World View -- Europeans announce bailout plan allowing Greece to default =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110722.keys Generational Dynamics, Horn of Africa, famine, Somalia , Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti, Uganda, Greece, bailout, Jose Manuel Barroso, Georgios Papandreou, Italy, Spain, Romania, Bulgaria, S&P Ratings, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Libya, Gaza, Muammar Gaddafi, Russia, Switzerland, North Caucasus, UN Security Council, Meme tracker, Sydney Opera House, Battle of Agincourt, Joan of Arc =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110722.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110722.date 22-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110722.txt1 East Africa famine - a catastrophe in the making =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110722.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "East Africa famine - a catastrophe in the making" <#inc ww2010.pic g110721c.jpg right "" "Famine on the Horn of Africa (Spiegel)"#> After the worst drought since 1950, with no precipitation at all in the last two rainy systems, countries in east Africa (Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti, and Uganda) are facing a humanitarian catastrophe, with some 12 million people already facing starvation, and with that number being only the beginning. A new rainy season is set to begin in autumn, but after the last two years, there's no guarantee that there'll be any precipitation this time either. According to one analyst, "The population has grown significantly, production has sunk dramatically, the climate is changing and many areas used for agriculture have been lost to the nomads. The land, he says, can simply no longer feed the population." <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,775338,00.html "Spiegel"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Europeans announce bailout plan allowing Greece to default" European leaders announced a €109 billion ($157 billion) bailout plan for Greece, going beyond last year's bailout of €120 billion. As demanded by the Germans, the plan provides a way for investors, mostly big banks, with Greek bonds in their portfolios, to "voluntarily" take a haircut of around 20%, by exchanging Greek bonds for guaranteed euro bonds. “It is a voluntary approach by the private sector, and it is therefore a solution with the markets, not against them,” said European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso. “We now have a program and a package of decisions which create a sustainable path for Greece, a sustainable debt management for Greece, and this in the end will mean not only the funding of a program but will also mean the lightening of the burden on the Greek people,” said Georgios Papandreou, the Greek prime minister. <#stdurl http://www.marketwatch.com/story/germany-france-reportedly-agree-on-greek-deal-2011-07-21?dist=afterbell "Market Watch"#> and <#stdurl http://www.iif.com/press/press+198.php "Institute of International Finance Inc."#> No one has come out and said that Greece is going to default on bondholders who don’t exchange their bonds; instead, there’s just a lot of arm-twisting of big banks to do all this “voluntarily.” Since this is clearly a coercive deal, the credit ratings agencies will give Greece's bonds a default rating. <#stdurl http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/07/21/greece-defaults/ "Felix Salmon/Reuters"#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110721d.jpg right "" "Greek Prime Minister Georgios Papandreou (Kathimerini)"#> Nobody really cares any longer about whether Greece defaults or not. Greece, Portugal and Ireland account for just 6% of the euro's problems. The real fear is "contagion," with the panic spreading to Spain and Italy, which account for 23%, and would require a €2 trillion bailout fund. One analyst said that this will be the day that the EU lost control of the system, because the bailout won't stop contagion. Bond yields (interest rates), which are the rates that a country has to pay to borrow money, have been going up in Spain and Italy, and there's little expectation that Thursday's action is going to stop that spiral. What does it mean for things to go out of control? It would mean a run on banks, with people withdrawing their money from unsafe banks and putting it under their mattresses or into other "safe" banks. (Recall that we've already seen major bank panics in 2007 -- in California's <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e070819 "Countrywide Bank,"#> and in Britain's <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e070916b "Northern Rock."#>) Greeks are already moving their funds from Greek banks to Swiss banks. (Bloomberg TV) An escalation of the Greek crisis would affect far more than Italy and Spain. Romania, Bulgaria, and other central/east European and Baltic countries which have benefited from the European credit bubble could be devastated by a slowing European economy. <#stdurl http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2011/07/22/greek-contagion-cee-edition/ "FT Beyond Brics"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "S&P says U.S. has 50% chance of rating downgrade as early as August" Standard & Poor’s reiterated that the U.S. may lose its AAA credit rating as soon as August. The rating may be lowered to the AA+ range with a negative outlook next month even if an agreement to raise the debt ceiling in time to avert a potential default without a “credible” plan to lower deficits, S&P said in a report. The chance of a downgrade in the next three months is 50%. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-21/u-s-risks-august-downgrade-if-no-deficit-progress-s-p-says.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syrian forces massively assaulting city of Homs" The security forces of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad are perpetrating a major military assault on densely populated neighborhoods of Syria's third largest city, Homs. Starting with gunfire at worshippers in a mosque early on Thursday morning, the army used tank shells and machine guns, shooting randomly at people in the streets. People who were dead or injured were left lying the streets, because no could pick them up without being slaughtered by gunfire. <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/201172110946880289.html "Al-Jazeera"#> Syria is getting closer to economic collapse since the unrest began. According to recent reports, business and trade are down 50 percent, unemployment has doubled, food and electricity shortages are escalating, $20 billion has already left the country, banks fear a run on their assets and the government is printing pounds at a furious pace, which risks a rapid devaluation of the national currency. <#stdurl http://www.globalpost.com/dispatches/news/regions/middle-east/think-tanks-and-rights-groups-write-assad-regime "Global Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Libya is new source for smuggled arms to Gaza" Libya has become a new source of smuggled weaponry for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. The arms are being supplied to Gaza by Bedouins, originating from rebel-held territories in eastern Libya. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=230422 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "US and France signal that Gaddafi could stay in Libya" Discussions about a negotiated end to the humanitarian kinetic military action in Libya are exploring the possibility, possibly endored by the U.S., France and other countries, that Muammar al-Gaddafi can stay in Libya, and avoid prosecution by the International Criminal Court, provided that he steps down and agrees to a political transition to the rebel National Transitional Council. <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/21/libya-talks-muammar-gaddafi-stay "Guardian"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel won't apologize for Turkish flotilla deaths" Israel's Minister of Strategic Affairs Moshe Yaalon told foreign reporters on Thursday that he's been holding talks with Turkish officials, but Israel is not ready to apologize for the deaths of nine Turkish activisits on last year's "Freedom Flotilla." However, he hinted that there are disputes within the cabinet, and that Israel's position could still change. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iygllTEVdfEAAm3SzNBplkSecK3Q?docId=30a7f805749e40459c7d23d5fcdbc565 "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russian and Swiss armed forces sign a military-technology cooperation agreement" Russian military officials hope that a ground-breaking agreement between Russia and Switzerland will boost Russia's mountain warfare capabilities, for use in the North Caucasus region as the 2014 Olympics games in Sochi approach. Russian officers, non-commissioned officers (NCOs) and soldiers will be trained in each country by the Swiss armed forces, focusing on enhancing the capabilities of Russia’s mountain warfare units. The Russians also hope that the deal will jump-start the military's fight against massive corruption. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38193&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=abc3110f77468048b36225c75b629f0f "Jamestown"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia blocks a United Nations 'green helmets' climate peacekeeping force" Yes, Dear Reader, the headline is not a joke. Western nations, including the U.S., want the UN Security Council to adopt climate change as an international security matter, and to fund an international "green helmet" climate peacekeeping force. The issue was deadlocked by Russian objections, leading US ambassador Susan Rice to say, "This is more than disappointing. It's pathetic. It's shortsighted, and frankly it's a dereliction of duty." But the Russian envoy said, "We believe that involving the security council in a regular review of the issue of climate change will not bring any added value whatsoever and will merely lead to further increased politicisation of this issue and increased disagreements between countries." <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jul/21/un-security-council-climate-change "Guardian"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pentagon braces for much deeper military cuts" The Pentagon is bracing for spending cuts far deeper than what it was expecting just a few weeks ago, including the possible elimination of an aircraft carrier group and other weapons programs, as an increasing number of lawmakers float proposals for slashing the once-sacrosanct defense budget. <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/pentagon-braces-for-much-deeper-military-spending-cuts-as-part-of-debt-deal/2011/07/20/gIQAdBKfQI_story.html "Washington Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pentagon searches for a 'meme tracker'" The Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has made a broad announcement seeking proposals for a "meme tracker," to be used as a battlefield tool. The meme tracker would allow the tracking of cultural items through blogs, social networking sites and media-sharing technology like YouTube. "The effective use of social media has the potential to help the Armed Forces better understand the environment in which it operates and to allow more agile use of information in support of operations," the research solicitation says. <#stdurl http://www.fiercegovernmentit.com/story/darpa-search-meme-tracker/2011-07-19?utm_medium=nl&utm_source=internal "Fierce Government IT"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Sydney Opera House appears on cover of terror magazine" The Sydney Opera House, a world famous landmark in Sydney, Australia, appears on the cover of the latest edition of Inspire, an English-language terrorist magazine published by Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), raising security concerns. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/australia/8652490/Sydney-Opera-House-appears-on-cover-of-terror-magazine.html "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Ten reasons why the French lost the Battle of Agincourt" First reason: The French were heavily weighted down by up to 50 kg of heavy armor, on a plowed field where it had been raining for two weeks, giving them a big disadvantage against the lightly attired British archers. The French lost at the Battle of Agincourt in 1415, but they got their revenge in 1429 in the Siege of Orléans, under Joan of Arc. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/8648068/Battle-of-Agincourt-ten-reasons-why-the-French-lost.html "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Couple says image of Jesus appears in Walmart receipt" <#inc ww2010.pic g110721b.jpg right "" "Walmart receipt"#> A South Carolina couple who dropped their Walmart receipt on the floor of their apartment discovered three days later that the receipt has changed and was displaying an image of Jesus. [It doesn't look like Jesus to me; it looks like Jimmy Durante.] <#stdurl http://www.kdvr.com/news/kdvr-jesus-walmart-receipt,0,3388483.story "KDRV (Denver)"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=859 "22-Jul-11 World View -- Europeans announce bailout plan allowing Greece to default"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110721 21-Jul-11 World View -- Merkel and Sarkozy agree on plan for Greece =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110721.head 21-Jul-11 World View -- Merkel and Sarkozy agree on plan for Greece =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110721.keys Generational Dynamics, Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy, Greece debt, Syria, France, Robert Ford, Eric Chevallier, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Cyprus, Gaza, Freedom Flotilla, Borders bookstores =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110721.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110721.date 21-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110721.txt1 Bitter Turkey/Greece divide over Cyprus threatens Turkey-EU relations =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110721.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Merkel and Sarkozy agree on plan for Greece after seven hours" <#inc ww2010.pic g110720b.jpg right "" "Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel, Europe's odd couple, in Berlin Wednesday"#> After seven hours of talks that ran late into Wednesday night between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, meeting and dining in Berlin, the two governments have reached a common position on a new bailout of Greece. Details were not revealed, except that it would include a contribution by Europe's banking sector. Presumably Greece will not be forced to default, and so the plan will kick the can down the road. <#stdurl http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCATRE76I5X620110720 "Reuters"#> For the "contribution by Europe's banking sector," the favorite plan now seems to be a bank levy, imposed in such a way that it would raise the desired €30 billion over three years. This bank levy will be completely separate from the bailout of Greece, so it will not count as default. However, the entire plan may be unworkable. It cannot be implemented eurozone-wide, but has to be done country-by-country. It would require all eurozone countries to pass new tax legislation, while it would be impossible to target taxes on specific banks holding Greek bonds. <#stdurl http://www.eurointelligence.com/article/article/two-months-of-negotiations-and-the-outcome-is-a-tax.html?tx_ttnews[backPid]=901&cHash=4178303aa3b7d97ba85d7d4384d79edd "Euro Intelligence"#> Merkel and Sarkozy find each other "mutually unbearable" but they manage to get along despite disagreeing on a number of major issues. Last month, in a report of Sarkozy's visit to Berlin to discuss the Greek crisis, Der Spiegel wrote: "The welcome will once again appear very cordial -- Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel will also work the cameras this time around -- a kiss on the left cheek, a peck on the right one, smiles and waving. Behind closed doors, the atmosphere will be less amicable." <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jul/20/euro-crisis-angela-merkel-sarkozy "Guardian"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Posturing continues in Washington" I almost can't stand to hear anybody in Washington talk about the national debt situation since it either gives me a headache or makes me want to vomit. Everything being said is simply posturing for next year's elections. There's nothing being said by anyone that's worth a piece of crap. Everyone understands that taxes will not be raised and spending will not be cut, except in trivial ways. The only thing that the politicians care about is who's going to be blamed. The U.S. is about a year behind the EU in facing the debt crisis, and the only possible outcome by August 2 will be to kick the can down the road, and the only way that can be done is by raising the debt ceiling, but bury the action in some law that promises to take some action next year, or whatever. <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/obama-moves-to-shore-up-democratic-support-for-broad-debt-plan/2011/07/20/gIQAer94PI_story.html "Washington Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria threatens French and U.S. ambassadors with expulsion" Syria warned French and U.S. ambassadors that they risked expulsion if they breach a travel ban and travel more than 25 kilometers outside the capital city Damascus. U.S. Ambassador Robert Ford and France's ambassador to Syria, Eric Chevallier, traveled to the city of Hama on July 8, and gave support to the anti-government demonstrators, infuriating the Syrian government. <#stdurl http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2011/Jul-21/Damascus-warns-US-French-envoys-apologizes-to-Qatar.ashx "Daily Star (Lebanon)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey continues to threaten Syria with military intervention" Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is so appalled by the savage violence and wholesale massacres by Syrian security forces against peaceful demonstrators, compounded by more than 12,000 Syrians fleeing into refugee camps in Turkey, that Turkey might still invade Syria if the situation deteriorates further. <#stdurl http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Turkey+threat+Syria+changes+Mideast+dynamics/5127444/story.html "Calgary Herald"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Bitter Turkey/Greece divide over Cyprus threatens Turkey-EU relations" The Mediterranean island of Cyprus has been bitterly divided since 1974, since a 1974 war that split the island, with Turkish Cypriots occupying the northern 1/3 of the island, and Greek Cypriots occupying the southern 2/3. The EU recognizes only the Greek government in Nicosia as legitimate, and it is a member of the EU. It is now the turn of Cyprus to assume the rotating presidency of the EU, and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has threatened to freeze relations with the European Union if this takes place in 2012 as scheduled. <#stdurl http://www.todayszaman.com/news-251097-ankara-athens-route-sours-on-erdogans-cyprus-ultimatum.html "Zaman"#> German conservatives are welcoming Erdogan's threats to freeze Turkish relations with the EU, claiming that the threats only serve to further disqualify Turkey's plans to join the European union. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,775490,00.html "Spiegel"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey's PM Erdogan threatens to visit Gaza unless Israel apologizes" <#inc ww2010.pic g110720c.jpg right "" "Erdogan and his wife Emine (the only woman wearing a headscarf) in Nicosia, marking the 37th anniversary of Turkish invasion of Cyprus"#> Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has concluded that Turkey's foreign-policy approach of recent years, which sought to address international problems like the Cyprus conflict with "goodwill," had failed to produce tangible results, and so Erdogan has started to follow a tougher line. Thus, Erdogan is demanding that Israel apologize for the deaths of nine Turkish activists in the "Freedom Flotilla" to Gaza on July 27 of last year, and is demanding that Israel issue its apology before July 27 of this year, the date on which the United Nations is expected to publish a report on the raid. If Israel does not apologize, then Erdogan will enter Gaza from Egypt, breaking the Israeli blockade of Gaza. <#stdurl http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/apologise-for-flotilla-deaths-or-i-go-to-gaza-turkish-pm-tells-israel "The National (UAE)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Borders bookstores will close forever" Borders, the second largest U.S. bookstore chain, will close its doors for good. 400 bookstores will close, costing 11,000 jobs. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/18/borders-liquidation-idUSN1E76H1LQ20110718 "Reuters"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=858 "21-Jul-11 World View -- Merkel and Sarkozy agree on plan for Greece"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110720b 20-Jul-11 News -- Rupert Murdoch hearings show generational split =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110720b.head 20-Jul-11 News -- Rupert Murdoch hearings show generational split =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110720b.keys Generational Dynamics, Rupert Murdoch, James Murdoch, Wendi Deng, Yves Smith, Naked Capitalism, Milly Dowler, Rebekah Brooks =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110720b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110720b.date 20-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110720b.txt1 The media industry is not much different from the banking industry =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110720b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Rupert Murdoch hearings show generational split" Surely the most spectacular moment in the hearings on Tuesday occurred when Robert Murdoch's young 42 year old wife, Wendi Deng, got up and slugged an intruder throwing a paper plate full of shaving foam at her husband, according to the <#stdurl http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2016431/PHONE-HACKING-INQUIRY-LIVE-Rupert-Murdoch-Rebekah-Brooks-face-committee.html "Daily Mail."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110719.jpg center "" "Rupert Murdoch at right, his wife Wendi Deng in the pink jacket, and his son James (Daily Mail)"#> I have no way of knowing whether either Rupert Murdoch or his son James lied during the dramatic hearing on Tuesday, but I do know that Murdoch's testimony is completely consistent with the the culture of fraud and extortion that I've been describing for many years on my web site, among politicians, and in the financial and computer industries. (For the latter, see <#hreftext ww2010.i.java080701 ""Boomers and Gen-Xers: Dumbing down IT.""#>) <#inc ww2010.pic g110719b.jpg right "" "Wendi Deng jumps up instantly and slugs her husband's foam assailant (Daily Mail)"#> The statement by Murdoch that most struck home, in my opinion, occurred when he was asked if he planned to resign, quoted by <#stdurl http://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/07/19/murdoch-says-hes-staying-and-investors-like-it/ "AP."#> Now, you can say that his answer is self-serving, but whether he had any other motives, I felt he was genuinely shocked and angry at what had happened, and his response describes a lot of what's been going on in the last decade:
"I feel that people I trusted, I'm not saying who, I don't know at what level, have let me down. And I think they behaved disgracefully, betrayed the company and me, and it's for them to pay. I think that frankly, I'm the best person to clean this up."This is exactly what happened in the financial industries, where those tens of trillions of dollars of toxic assets still in banks' portfolios didn't just come from nowhere. They were created by Gen-Xers who poured out of colleges in the 1990s with masters degrees in financial engineering. Those people knowingly created these fraudulent securities, and sold them to investors knowing that they were defrauding the investors. Their greedy, incompetent Boomer bosses went along with this, because they were making so much money by defrauding investors. The extortion came in when the bosses started asking too many questions; then the perpetrators threatened to go to another firm or create other problems. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e090607b ""BlogWatch: Yves Smith at 'Naked Capitalism' adopts generational model of financial crisis.""#>) These tens of trillions of dollars of fraudulent securities did not just come from the tooth fairy. Almost every major financial institution in the world was involved as perpetrator, and that could only happen generationally. That doesn't mean that every Boomer and Gen-Xer is a crook; quite the contrary, most people are decent, honest people. But it's amazing how much the culture has changed since the 1990s, when the Silent generation was still in charge. In today's culture, unlike earlier decades, people who are willing to commit fraud and extortion are able to get away with it, and have a big advantage over people who are decent, honest, competent and professional. The Rupert Murdoch scandal exploded into world headlines only in the last couple of weeks, after it was revealed by the <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/jul/04/milly-dowler-voicemail-hacked-news-of-world "Guardian"#> that reporters from Murdoch's News of the World newspaper had hacked into the cell phone account of a missing 13 year old schoolgirl, Milly Dowler, after she had been abducted in 2002. The reporters actually listened to Milly's phone messages and deleted some of them, to keep other reporters from getting the scoop. Milly's distraught parents, not knowing whether she was alive or dead, discovered that the messages had been deleted, and assumed that Milly must have deleted them herself, meaning that she was still alive. Her decomposed body was found in the woods several months later. At Tuesday's hearing, Rebekah Brooks, the editor of the paper at that time, described her reaction when she read the Guardian article two weeks ago, as quoted by <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-14209990 "BBC"#>:
"The idea that Milly Dowler's phone was accessed by someone being paid by the News of the World, or even worse authorised by someone at the News of the World, is as abhorrent to me as it is to everyone in this room. ... I don't know anyone in their right mind who would authorise, know, sanction, approval, anyone listening to the voicemails of Milly Dowler in those circumstances. I just don't know anyone who would think it was the right and proper thing to do at this time or at any time."Once again, I don't know what additional motives Brooks might have had in making this statement, but her anger and disgust is very credible to me, because there are two kinds of people in the world. There are people who think that there's nothing particularly wrong with hacking into the cell phone messages of an abducted 13 year old girl, and there are people who think that no one in his right mind would do so, or who would go ballistic at learning about someone else doing it. I'm firmly in the second of these two categories, and I can easily believe that Brooks was also in the second category. What's different about our culture now that's different from the 1970s, 80s and 90s is that today there are a lot more people in the first category. For these people, decency, honesty, competence and professionalism count for nothing. We know that the culture of fraud and extortion permeates the entire financial industry, as well as the politicians in Washington and Brussels. We know that it also exists in the computer industry, and now we also know that it exists in the media. This is not surprising. What WOULD be surprising is if anyone could name an industry which was not permeated by fraud and extortion in the last few years. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=857 "20-Jul-11 News -- Rupert Murdoch hearings show generational split"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110720 20-Jul-11 World View -- Crucial Brussels meeting on Greece approaches =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110720.head 20-Jul-11 World View -- Crucial Brussels meeting on Greece approaches =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110720.keys Generational Dynamics, Angela Merkel, Germany, France, Greece, Nicolas Sarkozy, Jean-Claude Trichet, Freedom Flotilla II, Dignite-Al Karame, China, string of pearls, Philippines, Spratly islands, House Foreign Affairs Committee, Palestinian Authority =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110720.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110720.date 20-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110720.txt1 China's aggressive naval buildup threatens conflict =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110720.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Germany continues to insist that Greece be allowed to default" <#inc ww2010.pic g110719c.gif right "" "Greece 2 year bonds - 39.0%"#> Germany's panel of economy advisers is urging a default on Greece's debt, with a "haircut" on existing bonds of around 50%. This comes on a day when yields (interest rates) on Greek 2 year bonds surged from 36% to 39%, as Europe's bond panic continues. However, European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet is bitterly opposed to allowing Greece to default, saying that it would be catastrophic for the European banking system. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/19/eurozone-greece-germany-wisemen-idUSLDE76I1KL20110719 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Merkel and Sarkozy to meet on Wednesday in Berlin" The tension and suspense are increasing, as the world waits for the European summit on Thursday to decide on the next bailout of Greece, and whether to let Greece default or to kick the can down the road once again. French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel will meet in Berlin on Wednesday to prepare for the summit. The two will dine together in Berlin before traveling to Brussels on Thursday morning. <#stdurl http://www.expatica.com/fr/news/french-news/sarkozy-merkel-to-meet-ahead-of-eurozone-summit_164318.html "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel intercepts the final 'Freedom Flotilla II' boat" Only one ship escaped Greece's grounding of all the ships in the "Freedom Flotilla II." The French yacht Dignite-Al Karame attempted to reach Gaza on Tuesday, but was intercepted by Israeli naval commandos. The commandos took control of the vessel quickly and faced no resistance from the passengers. They offered the passengers refreshments, and took them into custody. <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/navy-intercepts-final-flotilla-boat-in-international-waters-israeli-commandos-faced-no-resistance-1.374120 "Haaretz"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China's aggressive naval buildup threatens conflict" <#inc ww2010.pic g110719d.gif right "" "China's string of pearls"#> China's "string of pearls" consists of port and airfield construction projects, diplomatic ties and force modernization. These "pearls" range from the coast of mainland China to the recently upgraded military facilities on Hainan Island, China's southernmost territory. They extend through the South China Sea to the Strait of Malacca, over to the Indian Ocean and along the coast of the Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf. They include an airstrip on Woody Island in the Paracel archipelago east of Vietnam. A container shipping facility in Chittagong, Bangladesh, a deep-water port in Sittwe, Myanmar, and a potential naval base in Gwadar, Pakistan are also "pearls", all of them representing Chinese geopolitical influence or military presence. Until recently, China lacked the technical and industrial capacity to build a modern navy. Starting from the 1990s, China kicked off its naval modernization effort by acquiring a range of new weapons including anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), submarines and surface ships. China is also developing the world's first anti-ship ballistic missile, a system specifically designed to defeat US carrier strike groups. <#stdurl http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/MG20Ad01.html "Asia Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Philippine politicians to visit disputed Spratly islands" China is criticizing a plan by Philippine legislators to make a special visit to the Spratly islands in the South China Sea, in order to assert the country's claim to the islands, in opposition to China's claims. There are six nations claiming the islands. China has said the planned trip by the lawmakers could damage bilateral ties. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-14212130 "BBC"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "House bill would cut aid to Palestinians, Lebanon" The House Foreign Affairs Committee will consider a bill that would condition further aid to the Palestinian Authority on its recognition of Israel as a Jewish state. Even if passed by the committee, the bill has little chance of becoming law. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=230115 "Jerusalem Post"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=857 "20-Jul-11 News -- Rupert Murdoch hearings show generational split"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110719b 19-Jul-11 News -- Europe unravels in panic, as Fed considers a European bailout =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110719b.head 19-Jul-11 News -- Europe unravels in panic, as Fed considers a European bailout =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110719b.keys Generational Dynamics, Europe, panic, Greece, Helmut Kohl, Angela Merkel =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110719b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110719b.date 19-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110719b.txt1 Cliffhanger: Will Greece default on its debt this week? =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110719b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Europe unravels in panic, as Fed considers a European bailout" Over the weekend, <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,774875,00.html "Der Spiegel"#> quoted former German Chancellor as saying of the current Chancellor, Angela Merkel: "Die macht mir mein Europa kaputt!" -- "She is destroying my Europe." <#inc ww2010.pic g110512a.jpg center "" "A highly emotional photo of Mitterand and Kohl at Verdun in 1984 (Spiegel)"#> When the English language version of the <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,775085,00.html "Spiegel"#> article appeared on Monday, Kohl is quoted as saying the comment is "totally fabricated," because the fault lies not with Merkel, but with Merkel's predecessor, Gerhard Schröder. In other words, Kohl's Europe was still being destroyed, but it's just not Merkel who's doing the destroying. Kohl's back-pedaling is unlikely to convince many people. The same article accuses Merkel of having a "dangerous lack of passion for Europe": "To her, Europe isn't a question of war and peace but of euros and cents. Her policy so far has consisted of cheerless repair work, of plugging holes and putting out fires." Such is the difference between Boomers like Merkel (born 1954) and Silents like Kohl (born 1930). Kohl lived through the Great Depression, and then saw his country go to war led by what many believe is the most evil man in history, Adolf Hitler. I last used the highly emotional picture at the beginning of this article was in <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110513b ""13-May-11 News -- Europe's immigration crisis strikes at heart of European Union.""#> The moment in 1984 was the pinnacle of Kohl's lifetime, putting behind the bitter, genocidal wars between Germany and France, and creating a European project that would guarantee that nothing so horrible would ever happen again. Kohl unfortunately has had the bad luck (one might say) of living too long -- long enough to see his life's achievement, HIS Europe, disintegrating right before his eyes over immigration and financial crises. <#inc ww2010.pic g110718b.gif right "" "Greece 2 year (36.0%), Portugal 2 year (20.4%) bonds"#> What's now clear to anyone is that Europe is in the throes of a full-scale financial panic -- not a stock market panic (though that's coming), but a bond panic. In the PIIGS countries (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain), bond prices are falling like a stone, pushing yields (interest rates) up to 36% for Greece, and above 20% for Portugal. And readers with a good memory may recall that the last time I talked about a full-scale panic was over a year ago, in <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e100427 ""27-Apr-10 News -- Greece's bonds are hammered, with yields at 13%.""#> But that involved only Greece. This involve large sections of Europe. And it's 20%, not 13%. The crisis worsens measurably every day. As I recently told a friend who asked me about the Greece crisis: "Worse than yesterday, better than tomorrow." =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Bitter disagreements" There's no solution to the problem, and everyone is looking for someone else to blame. A lot of people are claiming that the entire European project ("Kohl's Europe") was flawed, and those criticisms were undoubtedly in Kohl's mind when he first blamed Merkel, and then Schröder. The European ministers are scheduled to meet on Thursday, and the disagreements are bitter. There are numerous proposals, according to the <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jul/18/european-debt-crisi-greece-summit "Guardian,"#> but they can all be boiled down into two choices:
"In fact, that's what's not accepted in the market yet. As of six months ago, people said there's no way an EU country could default. Now a lot of people fall into that, and so the next question is, what is the loss, given that default going to occur. We think it's going to be about 90% in the case of Greece, and about 70% in Ireland and Portugal."Egan claims that he's more accurate than Moody's and the other ratings agencies, because they're compensated by the banks who issue securities and have a conflict of interest, while his firm is compensated by investors who have disparate interests. His claims are backed up in the Barron's article by saying that he's been much more accurate in the past than the others. I've heard several analysts obliquely hint that the Fed would be the institution that bails out Europe:
Question: "The ECB is going to be the final lender for Europe, but they don't have enough money. That's makes us the lender of last resort. And I don't know who bails us out. You think the fed is the lender of last resort to Europe. How does that even work? EGAN: "It's working right now. in a couple of different ways. one is the swap lines, and I broaden it from just the Fed to the US government because you have the IMF support, you have the swap lines, and then you have some back stopping of the CDSs. And you don't really know about that, because that market is not completely transparent. Really, the US government is the only one that can move quickly, and then enforce to solve this problem."A little additional explanation: The "swap lines" refer to having the Fed purchase European bonds, as it did to bail out Wall Street banks in the past. In fact, these swap lines have been in use for a while. The IMF support refers to the 25% contribution that the U.S. makes to any IMF bailout. And backstopping CDSs (credit default swaps) is very murky, but it was a big deal in the bailout of AIG. Egan-Jones lowered the U.S. government debt rating one notch below AAA over the weekend, and explained the decision as follows:
Question: "Will the government have a default or delay a bond payment on August 3?" EGAN: "It's possible, but that's a red herring. The bigger issue in our opinion is adjusting the debt to gdp [ratio]. There are basically three problem in the US: One is that the debt to gdp is 100% or so, compared to Canada, which is a true AAA, they're at about 35%. Second you have a dysfunctional government - you could view it that way, and I'll explain it in a second. Third, you have the Baby Boomers who are retiring, and that increases all the retirement payments. On the dysfunctional part, we have three undeclared wars that have cost $3 trillion. The US government's debt has gone from $8 trillion to $14 trillion over the past 5 or 6 years. 3 of that is undeclared wars, 2 of these is from the debt crisis that hasn't been addressed. We haven't solved, or even addressed, what got us into this difficulty to start with. We cut the US government debt rating over the weekend. We were the first to put a negative watch on March 1, and now we cut US government debt."Egan didn't make the connection between the U.S. bailing out Europe and the need to decrease the U.S. debt to GDP ratio. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "What will happen in Europe this week?" There's actually some genuine suspense this week. There's this meeting in Brussels on Thursday. It's possible that the meeting will be canceled because of the bitter disagreements, but it's also possible that one of the two solutions previously described will be agreed on. Will Greece be allowed to default this week, or will they find a way to kick the can down the road? It's a genuine cliffhanger, worthy of a major suspense movie. It would actually be enjoyable to watch this spectacle, if it weren't for the fact we're all part of the movie, and we're all going to get screwed. As I've said before, we're really watching a horror movie that we're part of, but the doors of the theatre are locked, and we can't get out. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=856 "19-Jul-11 News -- Europe unravels in panic, as Fed considers a European bailout"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110719 19-Jul-11 World View -- U.S. - Gaddafi representatives meet in Libya =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110719.head 19-Jul-11 World View -- U.S. - Gaddafi representatives meet in Libya =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110719.keys Generational Dynamics, Libya, Muammar al-Gaddafi, Sergei Lavrov, Canada, War of 1812, East Africa, Somalia, Kenya, drought, Hamil Karzai, Israeli settlements, Freedom Flotilla II =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110719.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110719.date 19-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110719.txt1 Russia asks U.S. to cancel Cold War anti-Communism law =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110719.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "US officials meet with representatives of Libya's Gaddafi" <#inc ww2010.pic g110718d.jpg right "" "Pro-government demonstrators express their support for Libyan leader al-Gaddafi"#> The US State Department has confirmed that US officials have held face to face talks with representatives of Muammar al-Gaddafi, but denies that the talks were negotiations. The US said that the only purpose of the meeting was to reiterate its demand that Gaddafi step down. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14195476 "BBC"#> Libyan leader Muammar al-Gaddafi scorned Nato's demands in a booming voice, and said that he would die for the Libyan people:
"They said Al Gaddafi will go to Honolulu. This is funny: to leave the graves of my ancestors and my people? Are you serious? ... [I will] Never leave this land sprinkled with the blood of my ancestors who fought Italian and British colonialists. These rats have taken our people hostage in Benghazi, Misurata and the western mountains, using them as human shields. Five million armed Libyans will march on them and liberate the occupied towns as soon as the order is given. "After we gave our children as martyrs, we can't backtrack, or surrender or give up or move an inch. Rest assured in your tombs, our martyrs, we will not betray you ever."<#stdurl http://tripolipost.com/articledetail.asp?c=1&i=6413 "Tripoli Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia criticizes the West's backing of Libyan rebels" Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov criticized the U.S. and other Western nations that have recognized the rebel National Transitional Council as Libya's government, saying that they were taking sides in a civil war. <#stdurl http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE76H08T20110718 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia asks U.S. to cancel Cold War anti-Communism law" Public Law 86-90, signed into law in 1959 by U.S. President Dwight Eisenhower, states that "since 1918 the imperialistic and aggressive policies of Russian communism have resulted in the creation of a vast empire which poses a dire threat to the security of the United States and of all the free people of the world." Moscow criticized the U.S. for retaining this law. "It has long been clear that provisions of this law do not correspond to modern reality," the Foreign Ministry said, adding that the document goes against the "positive trend" in the development of Russian-U.S. relations. <#stdurl http://en.rian.ru/russia/20110715/165218117.html "Ria Novosti"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Canada worries about commemorating the 200th anniversary of the War of 1812" The War of 1812 was a minor non-crisis war for the United States (although the White House burned down, and Francis Scott Key wrote the Star Spangled Banner during the war), but it was a major war for Canada, establishing it as a separate country, apart from the United States. Nonetheless, Canadian officials are worried about how Canada should commemorate the 200th anniversary of the war, in which Canada repelled an invasion by the United States, who is now Canada's closest ally and most valued trading partner. <#stdurl http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-to-tread-carefully-in-war-of-1812-commemorations/article2099541/ "Globe & Mail"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "East Africa's drought and famine - worst in a generation" Somali refugees are flooding camps in Ethiopia and Kenya at a rate of more than 3,000 new arrivals per day. Several seasons of drought has killed livestock and dried up crops in Somalia. Aid agencies can't get into Somalia because of the war. The next rains are not expected until October, and harvests are many months away. Millions of people are at risk of malnutrition and starvation. <#stdurl http://www.catholic.org/international/international_story.php?id=42103 "Catholic Online"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Senior adviser to Afghan president Karzai shot and killed" The bad news from the war in Afghanistan just keeps piling on. Jan Mohammed Khan, a senior adviser to president Hamid Karzi, was shot dead in his home on Sunday. The killing occurred less than a week after Karzai's half-brother, another powerful government official, was murdered by his own bodyguard. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack, saying that they were targeting "traitors in their houses." <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-18/afghan-president-karzai-s-adviser-killed-less-than-week-after-half-brother.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel requests bids for hundreds of West Bank settlements" The Israeli housing ministry said Monday it is inviting developers to bid for the construction of 336 housing units in two Jewish settlements in the West Bank. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has refused to negotiate with Israel while it builds West Bank settlements. <#stdurl http://blogs.voanews.com/breaking-news/2011/07/18/israel-says-to-build-hundreds-of-homes-in-west-bank-settlements/ "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel prepares to intercept French yacht headed for Gaza" While most of the ships in "Freedom Flotilla II" are grounded in Greece, prevented from leaving to challenge Israel's blockage of Gaza, the French yacht Dignite-Al Karame set sail for Gaza on Sunday, after previously declaring that its destination was Alexandria, Egypt. Israeli defense sources said that the French yacht, which has 10 activists and 3 crew members on board, will be prevented from reaching Gaza. The Israel Defense Forces know that an al-Jazeera crew is on the boat and will make an effort not to provide the Palestinians with pictures of "Israeli aggression." <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/news/flotilla-diary/israel-prepares-to-intercept-french-yacht-as-it-sets-sail-for-gaza-1.373928 "Haaretz"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=856 "19-Jul-11 News -- Europe unravels in panic, as Fed considers a European bailout"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110718 18-Jul-11 World View -- US/Vietnam naval exercises =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110718.head 18-Jul-11 World View -- US/Vietnam naval exercises =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110718.keys Generational Dynamics, China, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Europe, Greece, Mideast Quartet, Louis Farrakhan, Jane Fonda, blueberries =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110718.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110718.date 18-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110718.txt1 Thursday's European summit meeting a 'Moment of Destiny' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110718.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.S. and Vietnam launch joint naval exercises amid tensions with China" <#inc ww2010.pic g110717b.jpg right "" "Col. Nguyen Van Lam, center, greets U.S. Rear Admiral Tom Carney with flowers on Friday (Reuters)"#> The U.S. and Vietnam launched a series of joint naval exercises on Friday. The exercises, which are confined to noncombat training, fall short of the kinds of advanced military exercises that occur between the U.S. and longer-term allies in the region, such as the Philippines and Australia. The U.S. strategy is a response to China's recent military aggressiveness, and includes an expansion of training exercises in other parts of the region to include newer participants, such as Cambodia and Malaysia, in some programs, as well as the deployment of new hardware, including littoral combat ships in Singapore. <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304223804576447412748465574.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>. Vietnamese police arrested at least 10 people, among 50 who were approaching the Chinese embassy in Hanoi. They were demonstrating against China over the tensions in the South China Sea. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g3-ytxnHmQ07dP9GSx6sditGfHJw?docId=CNG.2b4f6fd7caf05132cb9f1b6338bac556.601 "AFP"#> Contrary to the desires of the peace-loving Chinese, there have been a spate of escalations of military tensions with China's neighbors in the East China Sea and South China Sea. The saber-rattling provocateurs include Japan, Vietnam, and Philippines. The situation is made worse by U.S. meddling. Treating China as a threat and containing it in the South China Sea issue would be a bad judgment benefiting neither country's interests. If Washington continues to go along the wrong direction, it should prepare for the severe consequences. <#stdurl http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2011-07/16/content_12915608.htm "China Daily"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Thursday's European summit meeting a 'Moment of Destiny'" European leaders will meet in Brussels on Thursday for an emergency summit to agree on another large bailout package for Greece. One unnamed diplomat says, "There are times in history when it really matters. This is one of those times. The people working on a comprehensive package feel the weight of their responsibility." Unfortunately, many people realize that none of the proposals being made is going to be enough. Furthermore, there are two major obstacles to even those proposals: First, no one believes that Greece is going to rid itself of vast amounts of waste and corruption; and second, taxpayers in Germany and other core eurozone countries don't want to bail out Greece again. <#stdurl http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_3_17/07/2011_398714 "Kathimerini"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Mideast Quartet may be facing a serious rift" The recent meeting in Washington of the Mideast Quartet (the US, Russia, the EU and the UN) ended without the usual statement calling on the Palestinians and Israelis to resume peace talks, suggesting that there's a serious rift among the members. <#stdurl http://www.jordantimes.com/index.php?news=39546 "Jordan Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Louis Farrakhan says Europe/America will be drowned in their own blood" Nation of Islaml Leader Louis Farrakhan supports Libyan Leader Muammar al-Gaddafi, and threatens Europe and America: "You will be drowned in your own blood." <#stdurl http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5470.htm "Memri"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Cheap, common drug could dramatically reduce malaria in Africa" Ivermectin, a cheap common drug that's already being used to fight other parasites in Africa, could dramatically decrease the incidence of malaria, which kills almost 800,000 people each year. <#stdurl http://allafrica.com/stories/201107070161.html "All Africa"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "QVC cancels TV appearance by Jane Fonda" <#inc ww2010.pic g110717c.jpg right "" "Jane Fonda mirthfully posing with enemy North Vietnamese soldiers in 1972"#> Jane Fonda was scheduled to appear on the home shopping TV QVC network QVC on Saturday to promote her new book, "Prime Time," but her appearance was canceled at the last minute. On her web site, Fonda claims that the network received a flood of angry calls regarding her Vietnam war activism. "I am, to say the least, deeply disappointed that QVC caved to this kind of insane pressure by some well funded and organized political extremist groups," Fonda wrote. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e050411 ""Jane Fonda's half-hearted selective apology""#>) In 1972, Fonda posed for photos showing her sitting atop a Viet Cong anti-aircraft gun that was targeting American soldiers. When the Vietnam war ended, Fonda enthusiastically supported the Communist-led bloodbath in Cambodia that killed millions of people, because she would never criticize the actions of any Socialist government. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/16/us-janefonda-idUSTRE76F1PW20110716 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Latin American blueberries are 'extreme superfruits'" Researchers have found that two species of wild blueberries native to the tropical regions of Central and South America -- the New World tropics, or Neotropics -- contain two to four times more antioxidants than the blueberries sold in U.S. market "We consider these two species of neotropical blueberries to be extreme superfruits with great potential to benefit human health." <#stdurl http://www.eurasiareview.com/latin-american-blueberries-found-to-be-extreme-superfruits-15072011/ "Eurasia Review"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=855 "18-Jul-11 World View -- US/Vietnam naval exercises"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110717b 17-Jul-11 News -- Syrian opposition movement falters even as protests grow =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110717b.head 17-Jul-11 News -- Syrian opposition movement falters even as protests grow =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110717b.keys Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Istanbul, Turkey, Hizbollah, Lebanon =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110717b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110717b.date 17-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110717b.txt1 Syria increasing arms shipments to Hizbollah in Lebanon =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110717b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syrian opposition movement falters even as protests grow" The "National Salvation Congress," a Saturday meeting of representatives of the opposition to the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, failed to form a shadow government, because of factional differences. <#inc ww2010.pic g110716.jpg center "" "Unidentified Syrian opposition activists chatting in Istanbul on Saturday"#> Friday saw the biggest anti-government demonstrations since the protests began, where tens of thousands of people took to the streets in Damascus for the first time. Assad's security forces massacred civilians with live ammunition and teargas, killing 32. On Saturday, tens of thousands of young Syrians shouting "We want freedom" carried caskets of some of the protesters murdered the previous. Five people were killed on Saturday, according to <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/2011716131429976477.html "Al-Jazeera."#> Despite these large protests of young Syrians, there is little unifying the different opposition factions meeting in Istanbul. A Kurdish representative to the conference says that Kurdish participants pulled out of the conference because participants would not recognize the "ethnic rights of Kurds," according to <#stdurl http://blogs.voanews.com/breaking-news/2011/07/16/syrian-opposition-mulls-transition-plan-2/ "VOA."#> Furthermore, plans to hold a simultaneous conference in Damascus, connected to Istanbul via Skype, had to be canceled when Syrian security forces got wind of the location where preparations were being made, and smashed into the meeting hall of Friday, killing 19 people, according to <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304521304576449793044695976.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>. The conference leaders were also disappointed that US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who was in Istanbul meeting with Turkish officials, made no effort to meet with the Syrian opposition, who were just down the street, according to the <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/syrian-killings-stall-bid-to-unite-opposition/2011/07/16/gIQAV5GTII_story.html "Washington Post."#> Clinton merely gave lukewarm encouragement:
"We’re encouraged by what we see the Syrian people are doing for themselves. This is not anything the United States or any other country is doing. It’s what the Syrian people are doing, trying to form an opposition that can provide a pathway, hopefully in peaceful cooperation with the government, to a better future."It appears quite possible that the "Arab Springtime" in Syria, like those in Libya and even Yemen, are in a stalemate. The earlier dreams that all three countries would quickly remove their dictatorial governments and replace them with democracies seem increasingly distant. Even if Assad is forced to step down, there are many possible scenarios, with a democracy being the most optimistic and possibly unrealistic, according to an analysis in the <#stdurl http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MG14Ak02.html "Asia Times."#> According to the article, analysts are describing a fragmented and opaque opposition, a growing sense of fear, frustration and foreign meddling, and they slam the notion that a democratic transition can happen quickly and following a revolutionary model. "Other scenarios-in-the-making include an increasingly more heated geostrategic game over Syria between Turkey, Iran and by extension the United States and other involved countries. This seems to be the most worrisome development, since such intrigues are traditionally quick to descend on important crisis-stricken countries. As many past experiences and bloody civil wars have taught, this bodes nothing good to Syria and the Levant. Libya is again a contemporary example of the onset of this pattern." From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a bloody civil war is impossible in Syria at this time, since Syria is in a generational Awakening era, only a little more than a generation past their last bloody civil war. If a conflict breaks out, it will fizzle quickly. However, a more significant danger is that Syria can "infect" neighboring countries, causing violence there. Since the Arab protests began in January, Syria has stepped up the shipments of arms to Hizbollah in Lebanon, according to <#stdurl http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4095999,00.html "Ynet."#> The arms shipments include sophisticated ballistic missiles developed with the help of experts from Iran and North Korea. Using financial support from Iran, the flow of weapons entering the Bekaa Valley from Syria has accelerated since March. The weapons include advanced Scud D surface-to-surface missiles, which can carry a one-ton warhead and have a range of 700km – placing all of Israel, Jordan and a large part of Turkey within Hizbollah's range and therefore at risk. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=854 "17-Jul-11 News -- Syrian opposition movement falters even as protests grow"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110717 17-Jul-11 World View -- Mumbai terrorist attacks a business deal =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110717.head 17-Jul-11 World View -- Mumbai terrorist attacks a business deal =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110717.keys Generational Dynamics, China, Dalai Lama, Mumbai, india, Hosni Mubarak, Egypt, Gaza, Werkstatt Deutschland, Qadriga prize, Vladimir Putin, Otto von Habsburg, Austria, Google =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110717.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110717.date 17-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110717.txt1 Construction boom in Gaza since fall of Mubarak regime =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110717.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China slams Obama's meeting with the Dalai Lama" <#inc ww2010.pic g110716c.jpg right "" "Dalai Lama says to President Obama: 'My Nobel Peace Prize is bigger than your Nobel Peace Prize!'"#> China accused the United States on Sunday of "grossly" interfering in its internal affairs and seriously damaging relations after President Barack Obama met exiled Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama at the White House on Saturday. According to China's Foreign Ministry:
"This action is a gross interference in China's internal affairs, hurts the feelings of the Chinese people and damages Sino-U.S. relations. The Dalai Lama has for a long time used the banner of religion to engage in anti-China splittist activities. We demand the United States conscientiously handle China's principled and just stance, immediately take steps to remove the baneful impact, stop interfering in China's internal affairs and stop abetting in and supporting 'Tibet independence' anti-China splittist forces."<#stdurl http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE76G04320110717 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Mumbai terrorist attacks may have been a business deal" Having been unable to identify the perpetrators of last weeks triple bombing terrorist attacks in Mumbai, investigators are now considering a disquieting possibility: that terror is being outsourced to local criminal gangs, as a kind of business deal. For a few thousand rupees [a couple of hundred dollars], you can get a criminal with no particular skills to place a bomb for you. <#stdurl http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/sunday-toi/special-report/Business-of-terror/articleshow/9254539.cms "Times of India"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Construction boom in Gaza since fall of Mubarak regime" Since the fall of the Hosni Mubarak regime in Egypt, there's been a construction boom in Gaza, where more than 14,000 new construction jobs have been created so far this year. The reason for the change is that it's now easier to smuggle construction materials through the tunnels from Egypt, where the Mubarak regime had made it almost impossible. The Israeli blockade of Gaza restricts construction materials, because they could be used to build military bunkers. <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/video/middleeast/2011/07/201171619436625473.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Germany withdraws Quadriga award for Vladimir Putin" <#inc ww2010.pic g110716b.jpg right "" "The Quadriga award is named after the sculpture of a horse-drawn chariot that sits atop the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin"#> Germany's Werkstatt Deutschland has reversed a decision to award Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin the prestigious Quadriga prize. The organization had planned to give Putin the Quadriga Award as a "role model for enlightenment, dedication and the public good" and for his contribution to Russia's "stability through the interaction between prosperity, economics and identity," as well as to the reliability of German-Russian ties. The decision was reversed because of "massive criticism" from the media and politicians. Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and former Czech president Vaclav Havel have won the award in the past. <#stdurl http://en.rian.ru/world/20110716/165230577.html "Ria Novosti"#> and <#stdurl http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/article/Private-German-award-for-Russia-s-Putin-called-off-1468905.php "AP"#> Ironically, Greece's Prime Minister George Papandreou won the award last year for the "Power of Veracity," in recognition of Papandreou revealing the "truth" about the state of Greece’s public finances. <#stdurl https://insidegreece.wordpress.com/tag/werkstatt-deutschland/ "Inside Greece"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Mixed feelings in Austria at funeral of Otto von Habsburg" Austrians felt a mixture of clashing emotions as Otto von Habsburg was buried at 98. The funeral ends the Habsburg dynasty that ruled central Europe for over six centuries. His father, Charles, was the last Habsburg to ascend the imperial throne in 1916; two years later, the empire broke apart after defeat in the first World War and the last kaiser relinquished the throne without formally abdicating. The lavish funeral honored "Otto of Austria, former Crown Prince of Austria-Hungary, Prince Royal of Hungary, Croatia and Bohemia, of Dalmatia, Croatia, Slavonia, Galicia, Lodomeria and Illyria; Grand Duke of Tuscany and Cracow; Duke of Lorraine, Salzburg, Styria, Carinthia, Carniola and Bukowina; Grand Prince of Transylvania, Margrave of Moravia; Duke of Upper and Lower Silesia, Modena, Parma, Piacenza and Guastalla, of Osweicim and Zator, of Teschen, Friaul, Dubrovnik and Zadar; Princely Count of Habsburg and Tyrol, of Kyburg, Gorizia and Gradisca; Prince of Trento and Brixen; Margrave of Upper and Lower Lusatia and Istria: Count of Hohenems, Feldkirch, Bregenz, Sonnenburg; Lord of Trieste, Kotor and Windic March; Grand Voivod of the Voivodship of Serbia." <#stdurl http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2011/0716/1224300821811.html "Irish Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Google zaps your memory" It used to be that comic books made you stupid. Then it was television that made you stupid. Now it's the internet, especially Google, that's making you stupid, since you don't have to try to remember anything if you know you can just google it any time you want. <#stdurl http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2388557,00.asp "PC Magazine"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=854 "17-Jul-11 News -- Syrian opposition movement falters even as protests grow"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110716 16-Jul-11 World View -- EU prepares for emergency financial summit =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110716.head 16-Jul-11 World View -- EU prepares for emergency financial summit =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110716.keys Generational Dynamics, Greece, Italy, European Union, Herman Van Rompuy, George Papandreou, Greek Orthodox Church, Defense Dept., cyber attack, Syria, Libya, Transitional National Council, Hugo Chavez, Cuba, Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Afghanistan =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110716.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110716.date 16-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110716.txt1 Defense Dept. victimized by massive cyber attack =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110716.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "EU president calls emergency summit for Thursday" <#inc ww2010.pic g110715b.gif right "" "Greece 2yr (33.1%), Italy 10yr (5.8%), 7/15/2011"#> It's been another chaotic week for the European Union finance ministers, as the debt crisis has measurably worsened every day. Greece has received bailout money to last them until September, and there was supposed to be an EU summit on Friday to discuss the terms of the next bailout, but the meeting was cancelled because of bitter disputes over the terms of the next bailout. Desperate EU officials had hoped to keep the crisis contained to Greece, Ireland and Portugal, but now it's spreading rapidly to Italy and Spain, whose bond yields (interest rates) have been skyrocketing. On Friday, EU president Herman Van Rompuy called an emergency summit meeting for Thursday. "Our agenda will be the financial stability of the euro area as a whole and the future financing of the Greek program," he tweeted. "I have asked for the preparatory work to be brought forward inter alia by the finance ministries." <#stdurl http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2011/0716/1224300822732.html "Irish Times"#> and <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304203304576447903842805900.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece braces for a 'selective default'" Ever since the financial crisis began, it's been strictly forbidden to utter the D-word in Greece, even though it was mathematically unavoidable. Now, for the first time, Greece's cabinet met to discuss how the government would manage a "selective default" on its debt, after being repeatedly told (lied to) by politicians saying that it would never happen. Prime Minister George Papandreou told his ministers that they have to be properly briefed on the meaning and implications of a selective default. However, Papandreou's finance minister lied again, saying, "If some people choose to translate irresponsibly, in populist terms and for petty political reasons the term ‘selective default,’ I respond by stressing that it is not the same as a credit event, nor default or bankruptcy but a temporary rating of Greek bonds." This is a lie because it certainly WILL BE a credit event. <#stdurl http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_25893_14/07/2011_398436 "Kathimerini"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greek Orthodox Church comes under attack in financial crisis" More than 100,000 people have joined a Greek Facebook page "Tax the Church," urging the state to harness "the huge fortune of churches" to reduce Greece's budget deficit. The Church angrily denies accusations it doesn’t pay its fair share. "This is a lie. We pay more land tax than ordinary businesses and we pay 20 percent of our rental income in tax," said a Church spokesman. <#stdurl http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite3_1_15/07/2011_398564 "Kathimerini"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Defense Dept. victimized by massive cyber attack" In March, a cyber attack on a defense company’s network captured 24,000 files containing Defense Department information. Stolen documents include plans for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, secret information about American satellites, and plans for a new fighter plane. An unnamed foreign intelligence, probably China or Russia, had access to the data for months before it was detected. There are thousands of attempted attacks on DoD's 15,000 computer networks every day, and several of them have been successful. <#stdurl http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=64682 "Dept. of Defense"#> and <#stdurl http://www.informationweek.com/news/government/security/231001907 "Information Week"#> <#stdurl http://www.defense.gov/news/d20110714cyber.pdf "Department Of Defense Strategy For Operating In Cyberspace, July, 2011 (PDF)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syrian forces massacre civilians in enormous protests" In some of the hugest anti-government demonstrations since the protests began, tens of thousands of people took to the streets in Damascus for the first time. Vengeful Syrian security forces of president Bashar al-Assad massacred civilians with live ammunition and teargas, killing 32. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/15/us-syria-idUSTRE76D7NP20110715 "Reuters"#> A report from the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) indicates that Syria is engaging in nuclear activities, in violation of its nonproliferation obligations. <#stdurl http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=syria8217s-alleged-nuclear-activities-raises-concerns-2011-07-15 "Hurriyet (Istanbul)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.S. recognizes Libyan opposition as 'legitimate'" Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced that that the U.S. is recognizing the Libyan opposition as the country's "legitimate governing authority": "The United States views the Gaddafi regime as no longer having any legitimate authority in Libya. And so I am announcing today that, until an interim authority is in place, the United States will recognize the TNC [Transitional National Council] as the legitimate governing authority for Libya, and we will deal with it on that basis. The TNC has offered important assurances today, including the promise to pursue a process of democratic reform that is inclusive both geographically and politically." The announcement is more than symbolic. Legally, it means that billions of dollars in frozen Libyan assets can be made available to the TNC. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14164517 "BBC"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Venezuela's Hugo Chavez returns to Cuba for chemotherapy" <#inc ww2010.pic g110715c.jpg right "" "Hugo Chavez with Fidel Castro"#> Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez will travel to Cuba this weekend for chemotherapy treatment. "I am going to continue with the road to recuperation… This second phase will begin in the coming days with the application of chemotherapy. Now I must fulfill the treatment plan designed by the doctors, in order to recover my health." The exact details on Chavez’ cancer operation, including the location of the tumor extracted and subsequent medical reports have not been made public. <#stdurl http://www.havanatimes.org/?p=46785 "Havana Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Yemen's president Saleh will remain in Saudi Arabia" Yemen officials are denying a report that president Ali Abdullah Saleh will be returning to Yemen as early as this weekend. "The doctors will decide on the president's return," according to an official. Saleh has been in a Saudi hospital since he was injured in a June 3 bombing attack. There are still thousands of people each day protesting to demand that Saleh step down. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/yemens-saleh-to-stay-in-saudi-for-now-official/ "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Afghan civilian deaths up sharply, as war effort deteriorates" The United Nations reports that 1,462 Afghan civilians were killed mostly by insurgents, between January and June of this year, up 15% from last year, painting a picture of deteriorating safety across the country. The grim figures contrast with the relatively upbeat security assessments presented recently by senior U.S. military officials as an American troop drawdown gets underway. <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-afghan-civilians-20110715,0,6355969.story "LA Times"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=849 "16-Jul-11 World View -- EU prepares for emergency financial summit"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110715 15-Jul-11 World View -- War in Libya may be near an end =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110715.head 15-Jul-11 World View -- War in Libya may be near an end =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110715.keys Generational Dynamics, Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, S&P, Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD), Arab League, Mahmoud Abbas, Indian Mujahideen =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110715.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110715.date 15-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110715.txt1 S&P may downgrade U.S. debt even if a debt ceiling agreement is reached =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110715.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Obama agrees to support Russia's bid to end Libya action with mediation" <#inc ww2010.pic g110714b.jpg right "" "Medvedev and Obama meeting in Moscow in 2009 (AP)"#> President Barack Obama will support the mediation attempt by Russia's president Dmitry Medvedev to end the Libya conflict by mediation, provided that Muammar Gaddafi steps aside:
"President Obama spoke with Russian President Medvedev today to discuss a range of bilateral and international issues and to express his condolences on the tragic sinking of the MS Bulgaria. President Obama thanked President Medvedev for Russia's efforts at mediation in Libya, emphasizing that the United States is prepared to support negotiations that lead to a democratic transition in Libya as long as Gaddafi steps aside."The statement doesn't mention whether there are any other conditions, such as requiring Gaddafi to leave Libya, or preventing Gaddafi's son Saif al-Islam from stepping as the new leader, fronting for Muammar. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jvz5Q8lmTAPJCU1XSMnM5jBGZsXg?docId=CNG.e61e0d4f0fa7ba2b2782fefdb3ce32e2.1151 "AFP"#> Though unannounced, Nato discontinued air strikes on Saturday, July 9, essentially because 15,000 flight missions and 6,000 bombardments of Qaddafi targets had failed to achieve their object: removing Gaddafi from power. Thus, Obama's acceptance of Medvedev as mediator means that the military action in Libya is pretty much over, on terms acceptable to Gaddafi. <#stdurl http://www.debka.com/article/21115/ "Debka"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia's Medvedev increasingly marginalized in the face of domestic challenges" A year before Russia's presidential election, in which he may be running against Vladimir Putin, president Dmitry Medvedev is being marginalized by domestic challenges, including manmade disasters. The sinking on July 10 of the MS Bulgaria riverboat on the Volga River, killing 105, and the June 21 crash of a plane, killing 47, are both being blamed on massive negligence and corruption that's stretching all the way to the Kremlin and President Medvedev. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38168&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=30ddcb47d4a4017491f9201145be7313 "Jamestown"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "S&P may downgrade U.S. debt even if a debt ceiling agreement is reached" Standard & Poor's ratings service put the U.S. debt on negative watch on Thursday evening, and said that there's a 50% chance that it might lower U.S.'s credit rating soon, if a deal on raising the government's debt ceiling is not agreed soon. The S&P statement added, "[Even if] an agreement is reached, we do not believe that it likely will stabilize the U.S.' debt dynamics," and we "would expect to lower the long-term 'AAA' rating, affirm the 'A-1+' short-term rating, and assign a negative outlook on the long-term rating." <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/15/us-sp-us-idUSTRE76E01S20110715 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pakistan’s Jamaat-ud-Dawa Steps Up Campaign of Anti-American Rhetoric" Although doing so is illegal, Pakistan's Islamic charity Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) has stepped up its overt anti-Indian and anti-Western rhetoric. The JuD is believed to act as a front organization for the Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorist group, responsible for the horrific 2008 assault on Mumbai. Following the death of Osama bin Laden, hundreds of JuD activists descended into the streets of Pakistan’s main cities, including Karachi and Lahore, to offer special “funerary prayers in absentia” and to pronounce Bin Laden a martyr. Later, JuD activisits joined other Islamist terror groups to organize a rally in Karachi in support of the government of Saudi Arabia against “conspiracies” hatched by the United States and its allies. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38175&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=78ad0f0d8569d2913ec1f9309a0f4588 "Jamestown"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Arab League endorses Palestinian bid for United Nations statehood" The Arab League, meeting in Doha, Qatar, will ask the United Nations to recognize a Palestinian state on pre-1967 lines. Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas is planning to visit a number of EU countries in the coming days to try to persuade them to support the statehood bid at the UN. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=229428 "Jerusalem Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Evidence points to Indian Mujahideen in Mumbai terrorist attacks" Police investigating the multiple terrorist attacks in Mumbai on Wednesday, killing 18 people and injuring over 100, are not yet blaming Lashkar-e-Toiba or other Pakistani terrorist groups. The use of ammonium nitrate-based explosive and shrapnel, to cause maximum casualties from the improvised explosive devices (IEDs) is more typical of the Indian Mujahideen (IM), an Islamist terrorist group within India itself. <#stdurl http://www.hindustantimes.com/Evidence-points-to-IM-hand-in-blasts/Article1-721269.aspx "Hindustan Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "'Because like it or not, he is all of us'" Quote without comment:
"[C]an we just enjoy Obama for a moment? Before the policy choices have to be weighed and the hard decisions have to be made, can we just take a month or two to contemplate him the way we might contemplate a painting by Vermeer or a guitar lick by the early-seventies Rolling Stones or a Peyton Manning pass or any other astounding, ecstatic human achievement? Because twenty years from now, we're going to look back on this time as a glorious idyll in American politics, with a confident, intelligent, fascinating president riding the surge of his prodigious talents from triumph to triumph. Whatever happens this fall or next, the summer of 2011 is the summer of Obama." -- Stephen Marche<#stdurl http://www.esquire.com/features/thousand-words-on-culture/loving-obama-0811 "Esquire"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=848 "15-Jul-11 World View -- War in Libya may be near an end"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110714b 14-Jul-11 News -- Pakistan turns to China as US-Pakistan relations collapse =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110714b.head 14-Jul-11 News -- Pakistan turns to China as US-Pakistan relations collapse =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110714b.keys Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, China, Ahmad Shuja Pasha, Yusuf Raza Gilani =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110714b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110714b.date 14-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110714b.txt1 China contributes to arming Pakistan =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110714b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pakistan turns to China as US-Pakistan relations collapse" From the point of view of generational theory, a crisis era turns into a crisis war between two countries following a series of shocks and surprises, with each side crossing some kind of "red line," and the other side making an even stronger response in retaliation. <#inc ww2010.pic g110713.jpg center "" "Pakistan's ISI director Ahmad Shuja Pasha (a Doppelgänger of Ray Romano) visiting Washington on Wednesday (AP)"#> The latest shock in the U.S.-Pakistan relationship is the revelation that the CIA recruited a Pakistani doctor to run a vaccination program in the area around Osama bin Laden's suspected home, in order to gather DNA evidence from bin Laden family members, according to <#stdurl http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/07/12/pakistan.bin.laden.dna/index.html "CNN."#> The CIA wanted to be completely certain that bin Laden was actually in the house before the military operation that killed him. Two women who appeared to be nurses visited homes and offered free vaccinations for hepatitis B. Rashee Jooma, former spokesman for Pakistan’s Ministry of Health, criticized the CIA operation, telling <#stdurl http://thechart.blogs.cnn.com/2011/07/13/could-bin-laden-hunt-lead-to-more-polio/ "CNN,"#> "This was an irresponsible act by the CIA. This will harm the cause [of the Global Campaign to Eradicate Polio]. There have been several other shocks to Pakistan just in the last couple of weeks. American Admiral Mike Mullen publicly accused Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy agency of murdering a journalist, and of regularly using torture and murder. The previous shock to Pakistan was last week's announcement that the Obama administration decided to suspend $800 million in military assistance to the country. According to the <#stdurl http://uk.ibtimes.com/articles/177664/20110711/pakistan-turns-to-china-as-the-u-s-announces-800-million-aid-cuts.htm "International Business Times,"#> Pakistan just shrugged off the loss of aid. An expert on Pakistan's military said that the amount was not "substantial enough to immediately change policy," but that Pakistan's military might move closer to the militants. "If the partnership frays. Pakistan is no longer seen as fighting America's war. You can negotiate with militant groups then." However, that view seems to have changed rather quickly. Ahmad Shuja Pasha, head of Pakistan’s ISI, made a surprise visit to Washington on Wednesday, according to <#stdurl http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2011/0713/Why-Pakistan-wants-to-keep-that-800-million-in-aid-after-all "CS Monitor,"#> to patch up the rapidly deteriorating relationship between the two countries. Prime minister Yusuf Raza Gilani expressed "concerns" on Wednesday about how the cuts would affect the country's fight with extremism. "It is our own war, but we are fighting this war for the entire world." Whether these last-minutes statements will make much difference at this point is highly doubtful. It will be interesting to see if the Obama administration restores the $800 million in aid and, if so, how Pakistan's public reacts to what would be the widespread perception that Pakistan's government is selling its soul. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Moving closer to China" If you look around the world today, there are two areas where a crisis seems imminent. One area is the European financial crisis, which substantially worsens every day. I honestly don't think that they can get through the summer without a major crisis but but who knows -- maybe they'll figure out a way to "kick the can down the road" once more. The other area is Pakistan, where a series of shocks and surprises have caused the US-Pakistan to fall like a rock. Both the European and Pakistan situations could explode any day. There appear to be no such shocks and surprises in the relationship between Pakistan and China. On Tuesday, the Pakistan Navy began construction in Karachi shipyard of a missile boat that will be equipped with anti-surface missiles, automatic guns and weapons systems. These and other vessels are being built with the cooperation of China, according to <#stdurl http://nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Politics/13-Jul-2011/Navy-constructing-missile-boat "The Nation (Pakistan)."#> China is the single largest arms supplier to Pakistan, according to the <#stdurl http://uk.ibtimes.com/articles/177664/20110711/pakistan-turns-to-china-as-the-u-s-announces-800-million-aid-cuts.htm "International Business Times."#> As the US-Pakistan relationship deteriorates, and suspicions are increasing, China will support Pakistan and at the same time as it enlarge its sphere of influence in the Asian Pacific region. Pakistan's relationship with China has continued to grow closer, as we've been describing for years. Within the last couple of years, China has substantially increased its claims related to border issues with India, and has unambiguously taken Pakistan's side against India over the claims to the disputed areas of Kashmir and Jammu. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's expected that Pakistan will be allied with China and India will be allied with the United States in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=847 "14-Jul-11 News -- Pakistan turns to China as US-Pakistan relations collapse"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110714 14-Jul-11 World View -- New terrorist attack in Mumbai, India =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110714.head 14-Jul-11 World View -- New terrorist attack in Mumbai, India =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110714.keys Generational Dynamics, India, Mumbai, Greece, Arab League, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, David Cameron, Nicolas Sarkozy =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110714.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110714.date 14-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110714.txt1 Greece moving towards default =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110714.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "New terrorist attack in Mumbai, India" <#inc ww2010.pic g110713b.jpg right "" "Police at Opera House bombing site in Mumbai"#> At least 21 people were killed and more than 140 were injured in three coordinated bomb blasts set off by terrorists near the Diamond Market at Opera House, Zaveri Bazar and Dadar (Kabutarkhana) in Mumbai, India's financial capital, during rush hour on Wednesday evening. The Pakistani terrorist group Lashkar-e-Toiba will almost certainly be suspected for this attack, as it was blamed for the horrendous 2008 terrorist attack on Mumbai. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e090107 ""India's Prime Minister Singh formally accuses Pakistan re Mumbai terrorist attacks.""#>) However, the new attack was caused by high-intensity improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and police suspect the involvement of the Indian Mujaheedin. <#stdurl http://netindian.in/news/2011/07/13/00014271/21-killed-141-injured-three-bomb-attacks-mumbai "Net Indian"#> The latest terrorist attack occurred on July 13, 2011. Previous terrorist attacks occurred in May 13 2008, July 26 2008, September 13 2008, November 26 2008, and February 13 2010. The dates can't be a coincidence, though agencies have not been able to crack the reason why 13 and 26 are the chosen days. <#stdurl http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/Intelligence-agencies-yet-to-crack-mystery/articleshow/9218725.cms "Times of India"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece moving towards default" Fitch Ratings Wednesday dropped Greece three notches to triple-C and said default "is a real possibility." In fact, there's been a sharp shift in opinion, and it's now widely expected that Greece will default. One reason is that the markets turned sharply negative on Italy in the last few days. Second, Greece appears close to the limit of how much pain it will endure to close its budget gap. <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304223804576444081732590142.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Arab League tells US to stop interfering in Syria" <#inc ww2010.pic g110713c.jpg right "" "Monday's attack on the American embassy in Syria (AP)"#> A day after the Obama administration sharply escalated the pressure on Syria's president Bashar al-Assad by saying that he had "lost legtimacy" to govern Syria, the Arab League said Wednesday that Washington had overstepped its bounds by making those remarks. "This issue is exclusively decided by the people," said Arab League Chief Nabil Elaraby, and added that Syria was a "main factor of balance and stability in the region." <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jn26YdhdIN7QZkdmY79SEfBE3Bsw?docId=0cbed338b8154a2cb34fed18e5e06cc4 "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "British complain that France is reneging on defense pact" when British Prime Minister David Cameron and French President Nicolas Sarkozy announced their new Anglo-French defence pact at the end of last year, it was meant to herald a new era of cross channel cooperation on a whole range of military issues. However, France has always gone its own way during the Libya military action, and now France may be undermining the entire effort by "passing messages" to Muammar Gaddafi. <#stdurl http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/concoughlin/100096700/it-didnt-take-long-for-paris-to-renege-on-the-anglo-french-defence-pact/ "Telegraph"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=847 "14-Jul-11 News -- Pakistan turns to China as US-Pakistan relations collapse"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110713b 13-Jul-11 News -- EU attacks ratings agencies, and moves towards 'selective defaults' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110713b.head 13-Jul-11 News -- EU attacks ratings agencies, and moves towards 'selective defaults' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110713b.keys Generational Dynamics, Brussels, Greece, Moody's, S&P ratings, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, selective default =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110713b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110713b.date 13-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110713b.txt1 EU approves 'Selective Default' for Greece =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110713b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "EU attacks ratings agencies, and moves towards 'selective defaults'" European Union officials continue to be in a panic, after the Greek "contagion" spread to Italy this week. After Greece, Ireland and Portugal were forced in the last year to beg for bailouts just to survive, it now appears that the same thing is happening to Italy. <#inc ww2010.pic g110712.jpg center "" "Vivian Reding calls for destruction of U.S. ratings agencies cartel"#> Italy's national debt is at 120% of GDP, the second highest in the euro zone after Greece, according to <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,773818,00.html "Der Spiegel."#> In recent months, Standard & Poor's and Moody's ratings services have issued warnings about Italy's debt rating, because of weak economic growth, low productivity, and a rigid labor market. And now, on Tuesday, Ireland joined Portugal and Greece as the third euro zone nation to have its credit rating reduced to junk status by Moody's Investors Service, according to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-12/ireland-is-third-euro-area-country-cut-to-junk-joining-greece-portugal.html "Bloomberg."#> Moody's said that it was probable that Ireland will need additional official financing and that investors will be forced to share in the losses (which would be a default for Irish debt). European officials have been making one ridiculous proposal after another these past few months, including proposals to force investors to take "voluntary" haircuts on Greek debt. The utter absurdity of this has been hard to miss, and the ratings agencies are just saying so. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Declaring war on ratings agencies" So now EU officials are desperately turning to the one action that they have left: They're declaring war on ratings agencies!! EU Justice Commissioner Viviane Reding has demanded the "destruction" of the ratings agencies, according to <#stdurl http://www.faz.net/artikel/C30638/schuldenkrise-eu-kommission-will-rating-fuer-gestuetzte-euro-staaten-verbieten-30461596.html "Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung."#> "I see two possible solutions: either get the G-20 to smash the cartel of the three U.S. ratings agencies, or establish independent ratings agencies in Europe and Asia. It should not be that a cartel of three American companies decide the fate of the entire world's economies." In a speech on Monday, EU Internal Market Commissioner Michel Barnier said that the EU Commission in the future should no longer consider the ratings agencies in judging euro-debt countries such as Greece going through international bailouts. Last week, Germany's finance minister described the "big three" credit rating agencies as an oligopoly that needed to be broken, according to <#stdurl http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,15216983,00.html "Deutsche Welle."#> German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, "It seems strange that there is not a single rating agency coming from Europe. It shows there may be some bias in the markets when it comes to the evaluation of the specific issues of Europe. It is important that the troika [EU, IMF and European Central Bank] do not allow their ability to make judgments to be taken away. I trust above all the judgment of these three institutions." I really have to laugh at this last statement. These three institutions have lied repeatedly in the last year, so I assume that when she says she trusts their judgment, she must mean that she trusts them to continue lying. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Approval for 'Selective Default' for Greece" Many of these lies are directly related to last year's €110 billion bailout of Greece. They kept saying that this would be enough, even though it was obvious to me and other people that it was mathematically impossible for that to be enough. And now, Greece needs another €120 billion bailout, because a default would be disastrous, according to the ECB. Germany, the Netherlands, Austria and Finland are saying ABSOLUTELY NOT -- unless investors share in the bailout, which means a "selective default" for Greece. There was a meeting of the Eurogroup finance ministers on Tuesday, and here's what Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager said, according to <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/12/eurozone-greece-dutch-idUSB5E7I401K20110712 "Reuters"#>:
"We have managed to break the knot, a very difficult knot, of a contradictory statement that you are saying that you want substantial private sector involvement and on the other hand you want to avoid a selective default. Obviously this was a contradiction. So we have broken this knot and now we can do the work in the next few weeks. The (Eurogroup) working group can prepare. It has a broader mandate, several options. [A 'selective default' for Greek debt] is not excluded any more. Obviously the ECB has stated in the statement that it did stick to its position, but the 17 ministers did not exclude it any more so we have more options, a broader scope to work with."A knot? I don't know, Dear Reader. I write about these things as if I'm talking about real people discussing real things, rather than what appear to be cartoon politicians saying cartoon things. I almost don't know what's real and what isn't any more with these people. A couple of weeks ago, a Greek default was both unthinkable and unavoidable. Today, it's thinkable and unavoidable. The ratings agencies have already stated that even a "selective default" will trigger a default rating, with all its consequences. So it now looks like the Europeans are going to call the ratings agencies' bluff. It now appears that the EU is going to "permit" Greece to have a selective default, and the ratings agencies will then be challenged to carry out their threat, and take the blame for any adverse consequences. Europe's financial system is a mess, and America's is close behind. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=846 "13-Jul-11 News -- EU attacks ratings agencies, and moves towards 'selective defaults'"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110713 13-Jul-11 World View -- Afghan president's brother assassinated =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110713.head 13-Jul-11 World View -- Afghan president's brother assassinated =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110713.keys Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Ahmad Wali Karzai, Bashar Ja'afari, Syria, Turkey, Iran, Ahmet Davutoglu, Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110713.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110713.date 13-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110713.txt1 UN Security Council condemns Syria for embassy attacks =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110713.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Assassination of Karzai's brother creates Afghanistan power vacuum" <#inc ww2010.pic g110712b.jpg right "" "Ahmad Wali Karzai"#> The most powerful political figure in Afghanistan's Kandahar province, Ahmad Wali Karzai, half-brother of Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai, was assassinated in his home on Tuesday, apparently by his own bodyguard. Kandahar is a hotbed of Taliban activity, and the assassination throwing into (further) question the American withdrawal strategy. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Half-Brothers-Death-Deals-Blow-to-Afghan-President-125432643.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "UN Security Council condemns Syria for embassy attacks" "The members of the Security Council condemn in the strongest terms the attacks against embassies in Damascus, which have resulted in damage to embassy premises and injuries to diplomatic personnel. The members of the Security Council recall the fundamental principle of the inviolability of diplomatic missions and the obligations on host Governments, including under the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, to take all appropriate steps to protect embassy premises. In this context, the members of the Security Council call on the Syrian authorities to protect diplomatic property and personnel." <#stdurl http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs//2011/sc10321.doc.htm "United Nations"#> Syria's U.N. Ambassador, Bashar Ja'afari, accused the United States and France on Tuesday of distorting and exaggerating facts about the embassy attacks. He said that Syria had sought to protect the embassies and that some demonstrators involved in Monday's events had been arrested and would be brought to justice. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/12/syria-un-ambassador-idUSN1E76B0ZZ20110712 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey holds talks with Iran on Syrian unrest" <#inc ww2010.pic g110712c.jpg right "" "Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu (L) talks to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad"#> Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu met with Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Tehran on Monday to discuss Syria. "Syria is a close friend of both Iran and Turkey, which has close relations with the two countries. It is important for us that there are no more civilian deaths and that the country starts work on reforms as soon as possible," Davutoglu said. <#stdurl http://www.todayszaman.com/news-250176-turkey-holds-talks-with-iran-on-syrian-unrest.html "Zaman (Istanbul)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "France calls for negotiations with Libya's Gaddafi" Becoming increasingly impatient with the slow progress in the humanitarian kinetic military activity whose current object is to drive Muammar Gaddafi from power, France is initiating discussions with Gaddafi about ending the military action with Gaddafi still in power. If this position becomes official, then it would result in a major split within Nato. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8630778/Libya-France-risks-Nato-split-over-call-for-Gaddafi-talks.html "Telegraph"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=846 "13-Jul-11 News -- EU attacks ratings agencies, and moves towards 'selective defaults'"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110712b 12-Jul-11 News -- Syrian protesters attack US and French embassies in Damascus =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110712b.head 12-Jul-11 News -- Syrian protesters attack US and French embassies in Damascus =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110712b.keys Generational Dynamics, Syria, Robert Ford, Eric Chevallier, Hama, Bashar al-Assad, Victoria Nuland, Hillary Clinton =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110712b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110712b.date 12-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110712b.txt1 Tensions rise between Syria and America =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110712b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syrian protesters attack US and French embassies in Damascus" Hundreds of supporters of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad attacked the U.S. Embassy in Damascus on Monday, spray-painting walls with obscenities. Graffiti referring to American ambassador Robert Ford said, "Ford get out now. The people want to kick out the dog," according to <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gC6VvsS48KRlqI7tndFpRWfm-WsQ?docId=b868b49a9bac4c6f965f8600f2ffc6f8 "Associated Press."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110711.jpg center "" "Pro-government Syrian protesters in Damascus at the U.S. Embassy (AP)"#> Syria's government is absolutely furious because Ambassador Ford, along with France's ambassador to Syria, Eric Chevallier, visited the city of Hama on Friday, to show solidarity with the protesters. It's believed that their presence encouraged the enormous turnout of protesters. (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110710b ""10-Jul-11 News -- Iran and Turkey struggle over future of Syria""#>) According to <#stdurl http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2011/07/168018.htm "State Dept."#> spokesman Victoria Nuland, the "thugs" went over the walls, climbed on the roof, and broke windows. "My understanding is that we had U.S. Marines around the facility, and when they made it clear that they were prepared to defend our facility, the mob went back over the walls the same way it had come." Nuland left open the option that the U.S. would send additional Marines to Damascus to protect the Embassy. It's suspected, but not known, that the attack was arranged by the Assad regime. However, the State Department says that the Assad regime "encouraged" the attack and was "slow to respond" when the Embassy requested help, according to <#stdurl http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2011/0711/Did-Syria-order-mob-attacks-on-embassies-And-how-should-US-respond "CS Monitor."#> US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made one of the harshest statements yet to come out of the Administration, according to <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gzV6UhDjinFBomkyeBlH8IBtwkfA?docId=CNG.96f2bd1e98958899d20ad090a8aeefc5.551 "AFP"#>:
"President Assad is not indispensable and we have absolutely nothing invested in him... remaining in power. From our perspective, he has lost legitimacy. Our goal is to see that the will of the Syrian people for a democratic transformation occurs."If I'm not mistaken, this is the first time that the Administration has specifically called for an end to the Assad regime, as opposed to just encouraging him to reform. France's embassy in Damascus was also attacked on Monday. The French Foreign Ministry issued this statement, quoted by <#stdurl http://blogs.aljazeera.net/liveblog/syria-jul-11-2011-1927 "Al-Jazeera"#>:
"For the second time in two days, the French embassy in Damascus, at the same time as the US embassy, was targeted for attacks and vandalism by well-organised groups, in view of Syrian security forces....A battering ram was used to try to break down the doors of our diplomatic mission, windows were broken, intrusions were made inside the embassy, three sentries were injured, and the ambassador's car was destroyed. We call on the Syrian authorities... to respect the Vienna convention on diplomatic relations."An attack on a country's embassy is equivalent to an attack on the country. With Turkey's troops on the border, ready to invade, and with tensions growing in Damascus itself, the possibility of military conflict is growing by the day. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=845 "12-Jul-11 News -- Syrian protesters attack US and French embassies in Damascus"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110712 12-Jul-11 World View -- In Brussels and Washington, dysfunction over debt issues =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110712.head 12-Jul-11 World View -- In Brussels and Washington, dysfunction over debt issues =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110712.keys Generational Dynamics, China, South China Sea, Philippines, Vietnam, Greece, Italy, Spain, Shanghai, San Francisco-Oakland bridge, Mideast Quartet, Iannis Xenakis, Oresteia, Istanbul =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110712.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110712.date 12-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110712.txt1 China criticizes South China Sea drills in Mike Mullen's visit =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110712.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China criticizes South China Sea drills in Mike Mullen's visit" <#inc ww2010.pic g110711c.jpg right "" "China's General Chen Bingde greets Admiral Mike Mullen in Beijing on Monday (Xinhua)"#> In recent weeks, the United States has conducted joint naval exercises in or near the South China Sea with other countries, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Japan and Australia. As Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of US Joint Chiefs of Staff was visiting Beijing, his Chinese counterpart, General Chen Bingde, chief of the general staff of the People's Liberation Army, spoke at a news conference criticizing the naval exercises. "On various occasions, the US has expressed that it does not intend to intervene in South China Sea disputes. The US is actually sending out the opposite signal. We have observed the latest joint exercises between the US and other countries, for example, the Philippines and Vietnam." Chen also criticized the U.S. for spending too much money on the military. <#stdurl http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011-07/12/content_12880596.htm "China Daily"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Panicked EU officials watch bond yields spike to fresh highs" Eurogroup finance ministers meeting in Brussels on Monday to discuss the debt crisis in Italy and Greece, as yields (interest rates) on Spain's 10-year bonds smashed through the 6% barrier, yields on Italy's 10-year bonds jumped 44 basis points to 5.7% and yields on Greece's 2 year bonds rose to 31.1%. German Chancellor Angela Merkel called for more "frugality" in Italy. Increasingly, officials are coming to the conclusion that Greece will default (something that the European Central Bank still bitterly opposes, since they stand to lose the most), and now the talk has gone from avoiding default to reducing the impact of a default. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/8631219/German-Nein-leaves-Italy-and-Spain-in-turmoil.html "Telegraph"#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110711b.gif right "" "Greece's 2 year bond yields at 31.1% (Bloomberg)"#> As Eurogroup ministers discuss the next bailout of Greece, which will be dependent on Greece implementing austerity measures and meeting revenue targets, it now turns out that Greece is likely to miss its 2011 revenue targets by an enormous 3 billion euros. One reason is that Greek tax collectors have only three months to find 800,000 taxpayers who are newly liable to pay taxes under the austerity rules. Even worse, the recession is likely to be worse than expected. <#stdurl http://news.kathimerini.gr/4dcgi/_w_articles_politics_100024_10/07/2011_448843 "Kathimerini"#> summarized by <#stdurl http://www.eurointelligence.com/article/article/italy-under-speculative-attack-crisis-meeting-in-brussels-today.html?tx_ttnews[backPid]=901&cHash=3e09a0dbc2591d8013eb517eab9efc3d "EuroIntelligence"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Washington debt negotiations still at square one" President Barack Obama told the Republicans on Monday that it's time to "pull off the Band-Aid" and "eat our peas," as his way of saying the same thing that everyone's been saying for months - that the debt ceiling negotiations are running out of time, and the country either will or will not suffer a catastrophe if agreement is not reached by August 2. The Republicans are saying that raising taxes will just money to the government that will just be pissed away, and they're right about that. The Democrats are saying that cutting spending will devastate old and poor people, and they're right about that as well. Same as in Europe, a way will be found to "kick the can down the road," until a major crisis forces taxes to be raised AND spending to be cut. <#stdurl http://www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/07/11/debt.talks/index.html "CNN"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Shanghai completes the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge" On Monday, China's Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industry Co Ltd in Shanghai finished the final four pieces of of fabricated steel for the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge, under a contract valued at more than $350 million. It's part of a $7.2 billion project to replace the Bay Bridge that was destroyed in the 1989 San Francisco earthquake. The pieces will be assembled in San Francisco. <#stdurl http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2011-07/12/content_12880826.htm "China Daily"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Mideast Quartet fails to find common ground for peace talks" The Mideast Quartet, which consists of the United States, the United Nations, the European Union and Russia, met in Washington on Monday with the objective of restarting the Mideast peace process. However, Both Israeli and Palestinian officials have decided that there's no common ground to restart the peace talks, and the Palestinians are more determined than ever to pursue the recognition of an independent Palestinian state at the United Nations in September. <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/israel-and-palestinian-sources-to-haaretz-u-s-peace-efforts-have-failed-1.372726 "Haaretz"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Istanbul performance of Iannis Xenakis' Oresteia on YouTube" "Oresteia," composed by my late cousin Iannis Xenakis, was performed at the Istanbul Music Festival on June 21, 2010. The oratorio is sung in three acts with "electrifying" choral work. It's based on the trilogy of Greek tragedies that celebrate the birth of democracy out of destruction in ancient Greece. The Istanbul venue for the performance has historic significance because it was Istanbul's first Christian (Orthodox) Church, which the Ottoman Turks turned into a weapons storage facility shortly after they conquered Constantinople in 1453. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e100912 ""Works by Iannis Xenakis gain wider prominence and recognition""#>)
[youtube v3biAAGX0fw nolink]
<#stdurl http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3biAAGX0fw "YouTube"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=845 "12-Jul-11 News -- Syrian protesters attack US and French embassies in Damascus"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110711b 11-Jul-11 News -- Bosnia still bitterly divided as Srebrenica massacre is commemorated =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110711b.head 11-Jul-11 News -- Bosnia still bitterly divided as Srebrenica massacre is commemorated =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110711b.keys Generational Dynamics, Srebrenica massacre, Bosnian war, Ratko Mladic, Netherlands, Iranian Resistance, Ashraf massacre =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110711b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110711b.date 11-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110711b.txt1 Dutch court rules that Netherlands is responsible for Srebrenica deaths =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110711b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Bosnia still bitterly divided as Srebrenica massacre is commemorated" Hundreds of people lined Sarajevo's main street on Saturday, as trucks bearing 613 coffins carrying victims' remains pass through to Srebrenica, where the victims of Europe's worst massacre since World War II will be buried, according to <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5isQ5OQNmzzUH7n0ENHkLN4Yf_8Mw?docId=9869767dbc23405faec12282ffcfd6b2 "AP."#> The 613 sets of remains, found in mass graves and identified through DNA tests, will be buried at a memorial center near Srebrenica on Monday — the 16th anniversary of the massacre in which more than 8,000 Bosnian men and boys were killed. <#inc ww2010.pic g110710.jpg center "" "Two young women on Saturday mourn over one of 613 coffins of Srebrenica massacre (Getty)"#> At least 8,300 Bosniak (Bosnian Muslim) men and boys who had sought safe haven at the U.N.-protected enclave at Srebrenica were killed by Orthodox Christian Serbs under the leadership of General Ratko Mladic. (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110527b ""27-May-11 News -- Europe cheers the capture of Ratko Mladic, the butcher of Srebrenica""#>) Thousands of people will gather in Srebrenica on Monday to mark the 16th anniversary of the massacre. When the three-year war ended in 1995, it was hoped that time would heal the wounds, but that has not happened. To the contrary, Bosnia is now mired in its worst crisis since the end of the war, according to an analysis by the <#stdurl http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/weekend/2011/0709/1224300372086.html "Irish Times."#> Although everyone seems to agree that the Bosniaks suffered the most from the war, Serb activists are claiming that they are getting no recognition or support over the atrocities that were perpetrated on them. More than 500 Serb civilians are thought to have been held in the Tarcin silo and about 24 were killed, some from beatings and disease but more from gun and shell fire while doing forced labor for their Bosniak captors. The silo was one of scores of camps in which Bosniaks and Croats held Serbs, but only a handful of people have been charged with crimes committed in them. "What happened in these concentration camps is not recognized and we get no help from Bosnia or the international community," says one Serb activist. Meanwhile the small Croat community is becoming increasingly radical in demanding more power to protect its interests. Croatian nationalists are demanding that Croats have their own governmental entity, so that they can run their own affairs without being dominated by the Bosniaks. According to the analysis, violence is not imminent in Bosnia. While nearly everyone agrees that good personal relations among Muslims, Serbs and Croats are not only possible but common, most people also believe that their interests will be protected only by leaders of their own ethnicity. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what we're seeing is a transition from a post-war Recovery era into a new Awakening era. The Recovery era immediately follows the end of the war, and the survivors set up austere rules and institutions to guarantee that no such war will ever happen again. The Awakening era begins 15-20 years later, when the kids growing up after the war begin to make their voices heard, and they reject the rules and the compromises imposed by their parents at the end of the war. What we're seeing now is young activists making demands that their parents are too risk-averse to pursue. Bosniaks are continuing to commemorate the massacre, while Serb and Croat activists are beginning to make demands. The expected pattern is what happens starting 15-20 after most crisis civil wars: political differences become more confrontational, and start to become violent; there are alternating periods of violence and peace, with each new period of violence worse than the last; until finally, decades later, there's a new civil war. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Dutch court rules that Netherlands is responsible for Srebrenica deaths" In a completely unexpected decision, a Dutch appeals court ruled last week that the deaths of three Muslim men in the Srebrenica massacre were the responsibility of the Netherlands. At the time of the massacre, Dutch U.N. troops were in a peacekeeping operation, in charge of what was designated a U.N. safe haven during the Bosnian war. However, when the Serbs demanded that the Muslim prisoners be turned over, the Dutch peacekeepers complied, and the Muslims were massacred. This may be the first time that a state has been held accountable for a peacekeeping operation that went wrong. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Dutch-Court-Rules-in-Favor-of-Srebrenica-Victims-125002104.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iranian Resistance accuses U.S. of responsibility for Ashraf massacre" In July 2009, and again in April 2011, Iraqi forces attacked and massacred Iranian Resistance forces living in Ashraf, a city about 40 miles north of Baghdad. Following the above ruling by the Dutch appeals court, Iranian Resistance activists are accusing the U.S. of being more responsible for the massacre at Ashraf than the Dutch were for the massacre at Srebrenica. <#stdurl http://www.ncr-iran.org/en/ncri-statements/ashraf/10916-us-responsibility-towards-ashraf-is-far-greater-than-the-netherlands-towards-srebrenica "NCR-IRAN"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=844 "11-Jul-11 News -- Bosnia still bitterly divided as Srebrenica massacre is commemorated"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110711 11-Jul-11 World View -- Euro crisis reaches Italy =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110711.head 11-Jul-11 World View -- Euro crisis reaches Italy =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110711.keys Generational Dynamics, Italy, Greece, Hizbollah, Philippines, South China Sea, Pakistan, Divorce generation, Generation-X, Mideast Quartet, Hugo Chavez, Venezuela =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110711.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110711.date 11-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110711.txt1 Gen-Xers become the 'divorce generation' against their will =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110711.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Emergency EU meeting on Monday will discuss crisis in Italy" <#inc ww2010.pic g110710b.gif right "" "Italy 10-year bond yields (Bloomberg)"#> A sharp spike in Italy's bond yields (interest rates) on Friday, combined with the fact that Italy has the highest sovereign debt ratio relative to its economy in the euro zone after Greece, is raising crisis level concerns among European officials. They will hold an emergency meeting on Monday morning to discuss Italy. This emergency meeting will will precede a previously scheduled gathering of the euro zone's 17 finance ministers to discuss a new 120 billion euro bailout of Greece. (By the way, what's happening in Brussels is exactly the same thing that's happening in Washington in discussions over America's astronomical debt levels. After this weekend, officials in Brussels and Washington are back to square one on all of these issues.) <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/10/us-eurozone-idUSTRE7691HM20110710 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Middle East loses faith in Hizbollah" Back in 2006, after the war between Hizbollah and Israel in Lebanon, Hizbollah leader Nassan Nasrallah declared it to be a "divine victory." Hizbollah was widely respected in the Mideast at that time, but since then the respect has worn thin for several reasons. First, a Special Tribunal is about to release a report indicting four Hizbollah officials in connection with the February 2005 assassination of beloved former Lebanese premier Rafiq Hariri. Second, in 2009, Hizbollah's chief financier was arrested in a Bernie Madoff-like Ponzi Scheme. And lately, Hizbollah has become the region's strongest backer of the Syrian regime that's massacring Sunni Muslims. <#stdurl http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/middle-east-loses-faith-in-hezbollah/story-e6frg6ux-1226091826049 "Australian"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "'Peace in Our Time' Department: Philippines vs China" China and the Philippines have issued a joint statement in Beijing on Friday pledging to work together to avoid a military conflict in the South China Sea. Both China and the Philippines are claiming sovereignty over the Spratly Islands. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/east-pacific/Philippines-China-Promise-Stability-for-South-China-Sea-125215999.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.S. withholds $800 million of military aid to Pakistan" The Obama Administration confirmed on Sunday that it's withholding $800 million in military aid to Pakistan, about 1/3 of the the usual annual U.S. security aid to Pakistan. The reduction in aid is in retaliation for the request from Pakistan's military for a "significant cutback" of U.S. military trainers in Pakistan. U.S. and Pakistan relations have been deteriorating in free fall since January, with the arrest of a CIA contractor. <#stdurl http://www.dawn.com/2011/07/11/us-withholds-800m-of-pak-military-aid.html "Dawn (Pakistan)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Gen-Xers become the 'divorce generation' against their will" <#inc ww2010.pic g110710c.jpg right "" "Living Together"#> Many Generation-Xers led wretched childhoods of divorced parents, feeling that every divorce, in its way, is a re-enactment of "Medea": the wailing, murderously bereft mother; the cold father protecting his pristine, new family; the children: dead. Gen-Xers vow that they'll never get divorced, never inflict divorce on their own children, but it doesn't necessarily work out that way. <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303544604576430341393583056.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Mideast Quartet pushing Palestinian state based on pre-1967 borders" The Mideast Quartet, which consists of the United States, the United Nations, the European Union and Russia, will meet in Washington on Monday to figure out a way to revive the Mideast Peace Process, and forestall a Palestinian request to the United Nations for a unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state. The Quartet is expected to issue an international peace plan calling for negotiations based on the pre-1967 borders. <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/mideast-quartet-to-include-obama-s-1967-formula-in-new-peace-push-1.372574 "Haaretz"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Hugo Chavez announces $4 billion loan from China to Venezuela" In a televised interview on Saturday, Venezuela's president Hugo Chavez announced that China will provide Venezuela with another $4 billion loadn. Chavez is recovering from prostate cancer and Venezuela suffers energy shortages and rolling blackouts despite claiming to have the globe's biggest oil reserves. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5h26lVZxRM9yE7mCy6d9ug44tVtxQ?docId=27b59a2dd6f4407785500583b3f48ec1 "AP"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=844 "11-Jul-11 News -- Bosnia still bitterly divided as Srebrenica massacre is commemorated"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110710b 10-Jul-11 News -- Iran and Turkey struggle over future of Syria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110710b.head 10-Jul-11 News -- Iran and Turkey struggle over future of Syria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110710b.keys Generational Dynamics, Iran, Turkey, Syria, Robert Ford, Eric Chevallier, France, Bashar al-Assad =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110710b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110710b.date 10-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110710b.txt1 Iran and Turkey have conflicting objectives =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110710b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iran and Turkey struggle over future of Syria" The Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria is fuming because the U.S. amabassador to Syria, Robert Ford, visited the city of Hama on Friday, and was joined by France's ambassador to Syria, Eric Chevallier, according to <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/09/us-syria-idUSTRE7663MR20110709 "Reuters."#> The two of them showed solidarity with the protesters, and probably contributed to an even larger turnout. <#inc ww2010.pic g110709.jpg center "" "Robert Ford presents his credentials to Bashar al-Assad in January (SANA)"#> U.S. State Department spokesman Victoria Nuland said that the purpose of the visit was "to make absolutely clear with his physical presence that we stand with those Syrians who are expressing their right to speak for change. We are greatly concerned about the situation in Hama." Syria's state-run Syria Arab News Agency (<#stdurl http://www.sana.sy/eng/337/2011/07/09/357448.htm "SANA"#>) said that the provocative act "reminds of the colonialism methods," and that "This behavior is an interference in Syria's internal affairs, instigates riots and violence and contradicts all claims of the United States on supporting the world security and stability, the political solutions, dialogue and reform." The visits by Ford and Chevallier to Hama were more than just provocative gestures of solidarity with the protesters. They are part of a joint effort underway Barack Obama, France's president Nicolas Sarkozy and Turkey's PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan to resolve the Syrian conflict as peacefully as possible, by pressuring Assad to negotiate with the opposition, according to <#stdurl http://www.debka.com/article/21101/ "Debka."#> The pressure is with more than just words, according to the article. Turkey's army is on the border, ready to march into Syria at any time. If Assad's regime initiates a massacre in Hama, then Turkish troops would enter Syria and carve out an 800-square kilometer buffer zone between the Syrian, Iraqi and Turkish borders and the Mediterranean. This enclave would provide a sanctuary for Syrian refugees and opposition leaders. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iran versus Turkey in Syria's crisis" Prior to the Arab uprising, Syria was playing an important role in Mideast policies of both Turkey and Iran. Turkey's strategy has been to maintain cordial "no problem" relationships with all the Arab states, in order to regain some of the hegemony of the Ottoman Empire. The uprising has jeopardized Turkey's relationship with the entire Arab world. Most of the people expect Erdogan to stand up to Assad and bring down his regime if he continues to massacre his own people, but Erdogan isn't really ready to do anything like that. Iran's strategy has been to use Syria and Hizbollah in Lebanon to fight the west, especially Israel. Without Assad, Iran would find it much more difficult to provide arms to either Hizbollah or Hamas. Thus, Iran and Turkey have basically conflicting objectives for Syria, according to <#stdurl http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=47115 "Middle East Online."#> If Assad's regime survives, then Turkey will have immense problems with Arabs. If Assad's regime falls, then Iran will become isolated. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=843 "10-Jul-11 News -- Iran and Turkey struggle over future of Syria"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110710 10-Jul-11 World View -- Karachi Pakistan crawls back to life =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110710.head 10-Jul-11 World View -- Karachi Pakistan crawls back to life =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110710.keys Generational Dynamics, Karachi, Pakistan, Greece, IMF, Palestine, Israel, West Bank, Thailand, Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin Shinawatra, Samak Sundaravej =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110710.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110710.date 10-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110710.txt1 Greece receives 3.2 billion euros from IMF =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110710.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Karachi crawls back to life" <#inc ww2010.pic g110709b.jpg right "" "Karachi crawls back to life"#> After five days of political and ethnic violence that resulted in the deaths of 98 people and 150 wounded, police and paramilitary forces claimed on Saturday evening that they've taken control of the port city of Karachi, the largest city in Pakistan. Police on Friday were ordered to shoot on sight any gunmen, but Amnesty International said, "By granting security forces the power to ‘shoot on sight’ the Pakistani government is effectively declaring Karachi a war zone." <#stdurl http://nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online//Politics/10-Jul-2011/Karachi-crawls-back-to-life "The Nation (Pakistan)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece receives 3.2 billion euros from IMF" The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a 3.2 billion euro ($4.6 billion) payment under a joint loan with the European Union. Last week, the EU had unblocked 8.7 billion euros for Greece. The purpose of the payments is to allow Greece to pay its debts through September, and to buy time so that the EU can figure out how to continue to bail out Greece for years to come. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-09/greece-gets-approval-for-4-6-billion-imf-disbursement-under-joint-bailout.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pro-Palestinian activists plan week of West Bank protests" In the next phase of the "Welcome to Palestine" campaign, Pro-Palestinian activists have been arriving in Jerusalem for a week of protests in the West Bank. The protests will start in the Aida refugee camp north of Bethlehem on Sunday, and end in Jerusalem on Friday. Israel has detained or otherwise prevented hundreds of activists from reaching the West Bank, but activists say that 50 to 100 have made it through. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/NationalNews/Article.aspx?id=228627 "Jerusalem Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Thailand's PM Yingluck Shinawatra accused of buying votes with noodles" Thailand's newly elected prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra was accused of buying votes with noodles during a campaign stop prior to the election. The Election Commission is considering a formal investigation of the vote-buying-with-noodles incident. A spokesman for Yingluck says that the act was not premeditated because a noodle vendor was already cooking when Yingluck arrived and asked if she could help. The Election Commission will take up the matter on Tuesday. In 2008, Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej, an ally of Yingluck's brother Thaksin, was thrown out of office because for many years he had hosted a televised cooking show. When you're talking about Thailand, you just can't make this stuff up. <#stdurl http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/246290/key-democrat-disagrees-with-ec-yingluck-noodle-probe "Bangkok Post"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=843 "10-Jul-11 News -- Iran and Turkey struggle over future of Syria"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110709b 9-Jul-11 News -- Economists in shock at seminal jobs report for June =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110709b.head 9-Jul-11 News -- Economists in shock at seminal jobs report for June =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110709b.keys Generational Dynamics, jobs report, Ron Sims =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110709b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110709b.date 9-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110709b.txt1 Generational crisis era transitions =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110709b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Economists in shock at seminal jobs report for June" On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (<#stdurl http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_07082011.htm "BLS"#>) reported that the U.S. economy created a net of only 18,000 new jobs in June. This was far lower than the 100,000 to 150,000 or more that mainstream economists had been predicting. Even worse, the May jobs report was adjusted sharply downwards. <#inc ww2010.pic g110708.gif center "" "Life Magazine, January 9, 1931"#> There was a lot more bad news. The unemployment rate rose to 9.2%. One-third of the unemployed have been unemployed for over a year. Almost half have been unemployed for over 6 months. Although one month's figures usually don't mean anything, I get the impression is that this report is having a seminal effect on mainstream economists. I was watching CNBC on Friday morning as the jobs report came out, and I saw several mainstream economists first make gleeful, optimistic predictions, and then go into a state of shock where they could barely say anything but gibberish. These are the people who have been promising "a V-shaped recovery next quarter" every quarter for three years. For the last few months, I've been hearing that "we're only in a soft patch," and the huge V-shaped recovery would take off in the last half of the year. Now what I heard them saying is that the recovery won't occur until next year. I guess we're going to have to listen to predictions of a V-shaped recovery in January for next six months. Mainstream economists have gone through one of these transitions every 3-6 months for the past few years. Every time they have to change their projections, as they've had to now, they say, "Nothing like this ever happened before." What they mean when they say that is "Nothing like this has happened since the end of World War II." As we've been saying for years, what's happening today is comparable only to the 1930s, the last period with the same generational configuration. The same problem is happening in Europe, where the exponentially growing debt crisis in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Iceland have caused officials to put forth one crazy proposal after another. The saying "kick the can down the road" is supposed to mean "buy some time until the V-shaped recovery kicks in, and the debt crisis takes care of itself." This is what's always happened since the end of World War II. What they don't understand is that nothing that's happened since the end of WW II is applicable today. The generational configuration matches the 1930s, and that's the only relevant comparison period to look at. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Revisiting the 1930s" When I was in school in the 1950s, my teachers all talked about how economists and experts in the 1930s kept predicting that conditions were about to improve, and they never did. I never understood how the experts could be so wrong, but now that the same thing is happening again, I can see what's going on. It just proves that so-called "experts" are just as vulnerable to wishful thinking and ignoring the fundamentals as the dumbest love-struck teenager. A year ago, in June, 2010, the White House believed that the economy was about to pick up, and Ron Sims, Deputy Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, posted the following, entitled <#stdurl http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2010/06/17/a-summer-recovery "A Summer of Recovery"#>:"With tens of thousands of projects funded and millions of Americans on the job today, it’s hard to believe that it’s only been 16 months since President Obama signed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. And with so many jobs saved and created already, you might think that the Recovery Act’s greatest impact is behind us. But it’s not. As the summer heats up, it is becoming clear that it could quite possibly be the most active season yet when it comes to recovering our economy. There are Recovery Act-funded projects breaking ground across the country that are creating quality jobs for Americans and economic growth for businesses, large and small. This summer is sure to be a Summer of Economic Recovery."Boy, talk about sounding like a love-struck teenager! People have accumulated long lists of dumb-sounding statements by 1930s experts, starting with President Herbert Hoover's "Prosperity is just around the corner." Now, conservatives are beginning to accumulate long lists of dumb-sounding statements by President Obama. Here's a cartoon from <#stdurl http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/271359/todays-jobs-report-will-have-big-political-impact "National Review Online"#>: <#inc ww2010.pic g110708b.jpg center "" "President Obama timeline"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Generational crisis era transitions" There's a very interesting way of looking at this situation from the point of view of generational theory. America has had two generational crisis wars since it's founding -- the Civil War and World War II. When a country goes through a generational crisis war, in many ways it comes out of the war a new country, a different country, sometimes with an entirely new character. When America came out of the civil war, America decided that freedom was the ultimate ideal -- freedom for individuals and freedom for businesses in a laissez-fair economy. By the 1930s, America was deciding that freedom, when carried to an extreme, was a mistake, especially for businesses. President Hoover was blamed for being unwilling to understand that businesses could not simply do anything they wanted, and he was blamed for giving businesses freedom in return for votes. The conclusion of the American people, as embodied in President Roosevelt's New Deal, was that freedom had to be tempered with reasonable regulations and government intervention to control excesses and to protect poor people. Now, in the 2000s, there appears to be a gathering American opinion that regulation and government intervention have gone too far. This new attitude is being expressed in such remarks as "Obama is anti-business" or "Obama is a socialist." The Administration's heavy-handed regulatory framework, especially the health care law and various pro-union initiatives, are leading to accusations that Obama is harming the economy, and making it impossible for businesses to hire new people. Just as Hoover was accused of favoring businesses for their money and votes, Obama is being accused of favoring labor unions for their money and votes. When looked at this way, it seems likely that America will have a different character after it's gone through this crisis, and that character will conclude that government intervention has gone too far. It remains to be seen how the new character of America will be defined. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=842 "9-Jul-11 News -- Economists in shock at seminal jobs report for June"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110709 9-Jul-11 World View -- U.S.-Pak relations worsen again =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110709.head 9-Jul-11 World View -- U.S.-Pak relations worsen again =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110709.keys Generational Dynamics, Hama, Syria, Robert Ford, Eric Chevallier, Mike Mullen, Pakistan, Syed Saleem Shahzad, Muammar Gaddafi, libya, Egypt, Tahrir Square, Cairo, South Sudan =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110709.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110709.date 9-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110709.txt1 Last space shuttle takes off =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110709.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Half a million people protest in Hama, Syria" <#inc ww2010.pic g110708c.jpg right "" "Protests in Hama on Friday (AFP)"#> Despite a bloody, brutal assault on the city of Hama by Syrian security forces earlier this week, half a million protesters were undeterred, and filled the streets of Hama on Friday, demanding the fall of the regime of president Bashar al-Assad. Many feared a bloody new massacre by security forces on Friday, but the arrival of the U.S. ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, later joined by the French ambassador, Eric Chevallier, inhibited the Syrian regime. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Syrian-Forces-Storm-Protest-in-Damascus-Suburb-125202189.html "VOA"#> The Syrian regime has reacted with fury at the U.S. involvement with the protests in Hama, by sending its ambassador to the center of the anti-government protests there, and showing solidarity with the protesters. The presence of Ford, along with his French counterpart, Eric Chevallier, encouraged an even higher turn-out at Friday's demonstration and infuriated the Assad regime. Syria's foreign ministry said it was "proof" that America was instigating events in Syria, and "disturbing internal security and stability." <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8626514/Syria-reacts-at-fury-to-US-involvement-in-Hama.html "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.S. - Pakistan relations once again significantly worsen" U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, publicly accused Pakistan's security agency of murdering journalist Syed Saleem Shahzad, who dared to probe the Islamabad government’s murky dealings. Speaking at the Pentagon Press Association, he said that the torture and murder were "sanctioned by the government," and he said that the killing was part of a pattern. He added that Pakistan was continuing "to, quite frankly, spiral in the wrong direction." <#stdurl http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/americas/us-pakistan-relations-sink-to-new-low/article2092141/ "Globe and Mail"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Last space shuttle takes off" For the last time ever, astronauts used the space shuttle on Friday to slip the surly bonds of earth to touch the face of God. For the first time in two generations, there is no schedule for a resumption of human spaceflight in an American spacecraft after Atlantis completes its massive restocking mission to the International Space Station. From now on, all astronauts going to the International Space Station will have to travel in Russian space ships. <#stdurl http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/chronicle/7645662.html "Houston Chronicle"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Gaddafi shouts defiant threat at Nato" Speaking in an audio message on state TV, Muammar Gaddafi threatened and lashed out at Nato. Shouting loudly, Gaddafi said, "The enemies of the masses will fall under the feet of the masses, under the marching of the masses. The collaborators and traitors will fall — east and west — and NATO will fall under the feet of the Libyan masses, under the feet of the free Libyan people!" <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hQ6w_pLo_XlOZy-zMu8Gyb-XfHNw?docId=627eccfb07754ed78ceab746a50c3403 "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Egypt's protesters hold 'March of the Million'" Friday's "March of the Million", as protesters are calling the new uprising, flooded Cairo's Tahrir Square with pro-democracy protesters, demanding immediate reforms and swifter prosecution of former officials from the toppled government of Hosni Mubarak. <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/video/middleeast/2011/07/20117810134178303.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The world has a new country - South Sudan" As of Saturday, July 9, the world has a new country, South Sudan. According to a statement by the government of Sudan, "The Republic of the Sudan has officially announced its recognition of the secession of the republic of south Sudan as sovereign state as of today Saturday according to existing borderline between south and north Sudan of 1956 acknowledged prior to the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)." <#stdurl http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=77676 "Sudan Vision"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=842 "9-Jul-11 News -- Economists in shock at seminal jobs report for June"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110708b 8-Jul-11 News -- World food prices, euro bond yields and xenophobia increase, leading to a world heart attack =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110708b.head 8-Jul-11 News -- World food prices, euro bond yields and xenophobia increase, leading to a world heart attack =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110708b.keys Generational Dynamics, food prices, sugar prices, bond yields, xenophobia, Marine Le Pen, Brazil, corn harvest =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110708b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110708b.date 8-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110708b.txt1 Brazil's halts corn exports after frost cuts harvest =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110708b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "World food prices, euro bond yields and xenophobia increase, leading to a world heart attack" In 2005, someone asked me: "John, when can you ever be wrong? You've said that there's going to be a financial crisis, but when it doesn't occur, you just say that it hasn't happened yet. So when can you ever be wrong?" My response was: "Public debt has been increasing exponentially. If it starts to level off and fall significantly, then you can say that I'm wrong." <#inc ww2010.pic g110707.jpg center "" "FAO Food Price Index, June 2011"#> Well, here it is 2011, and public debt is still increasing exponentially. There has been what many pundits call "the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression." I would say that with public debt continuing to rise, the worst financial crisis is going to get far worse. Things like public debt can be compared to a person's blood pressure, often called a "silent killer." When a person's blood pressure goes up to 250/150, you can't be sure he'll die right away, but there's a good chance that he'll die pretty soon. So today we're going to update three of these "blood pressure" type indicators. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Food prices" On Thursday, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (<#stdurl http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/wfs-home/foodpricesindex/en/ "FAO"#>) announced that the global food price index, already at historic highs, increased 1% from May to June, and is 39% higher than in June 2010. The price of grains fell slightly, but the price of sugar increased sharply, thanks to decreased production in Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer, according to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-07/world-food-prices-increased-1-last-month-on-cost-of-sugar-dairy-products.html "Bloomberg."#> Around the world there are "megacities," each containing tens of millions of people living in shacks or abandoned warehouses, with no access to farmland. Families in poverty in those cities often survive by foraging in large garbage dumps for scraps of food left over by people who can afford to buy food. As population continues to increase, these megacities multiply. These problems have gotten many times worse in the last two centuries because medical discoveries have lowered the infant and child mortality rate from 40-50% to 1-2%, leading to huge masses of young men needing to feed their families, and ready to fight wars. That's why 20th century wars killed many times more people than 19th century wars. Prices have been rising fairly steadily since 2000, after the Green Revolution petered out in the 1990s. When the price of food goes up, more and more people are pushed into these poverty categories. Food prices are another "high blood pressure" type measure. If food prices even leveled off and started significantly falling, it would mean that something important has changed. As long as food prices continue to increase, the world can only be headed toward war. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "European bond yields" European politicians are ABSOLUTELY FURIOUS at Moody's Investor Service's decision, announced on Tuesday, to cut Portugal's credit rating to below investment grade. Even worse, Moody's gave as one reason for the downgrade the dysfunction of European politicians. Moody's announcement cause an enormous spike in Portugal's government debt bond yields (interest rates), and a smaller spike in Greece's bond yields: <#inc ww2010.pic g110707b.gif center "" "Portugal 2yr, Portugal 10yr, Greece 2yr, Greece 10yr bond yields as of July 7, 2011 (Bloomberg)"#> Yields for 10 year and 2 year bonds increased 3% and 4.5% respectively, to 12.9% and an astonishing 17.5%. Even without these spikes, it's been clear for months that Portugal's bond yields are headed to "credit card rates," just a few months behind Greece's bond yields doing the same thing. This spike was caused, in my opinion, because more people are beginning to understand that the "French plan" that we've been describing, that requires investors to take a "voluntary" loss of money, is completely phony and always has been. I heard one analyst on Bloomberg TV on Thursday, with no one else contradicting him, say that the whole plan was a joke, and that it was purposely made as complicated as possible by the Europeans to hide the fact that it's a joke. This is what we've been saying for a while, of course, but what's different now is that this opinion is becoming mainstream. Investors understand this, and that's why they're pushing Portugal's bond yields to the same astronomical levels as Greece's. Nonetheless, European politicians are furious, and hinting at some kind of retaliation. <#stdurl http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,15216983,00.html "Deutsche Welle"#> quoted German Chancellor Angela Merkel as saying,
"It seems strange that there is not a single rating agency coming from Europe. It shows there may be some bias in the markets when it comes to the evaluation of the specific issues of Europe. It is important that the troika (EU, IMF and European Central Bank) do not allow their ability to make judgments to be taken away. I trust above all the judgment of these three institutions."Like food prices, high bond yields are another "high blood pressure" type measure. Bond yields on all the PIIGS countries (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) have been increasing, and unless they start to level off and fall significantly, then it's a sign of an impending global financial crisis. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Worldwide increase in xenophobia" A number of web site readers of my recent article, <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110706b ""6-Jul-11 News -- Denmark's border controls called a 'European crisis,'""#> indicated that they consider Denmark's decision fully correct and justified. I personally take no position on whether Denmark's actions were "good" or "bad," and almost anything is good for some people and bad for others, just as high food prices are presumably good for farmers. I simply point out that the worldwide increase in xenophobia is just one more "high blood pressure" measure that's been increasing steadily and significantly since the 1990s, and whether it's "good" or "bad," it still means that we're headed for a world war, and that depresses me. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what these three "high blood pressure" indicators have in common is that they've all been increasing substantially since the generations of World War II survivors all disappeared (retired or died) in the 1990s. Stein's law was formulated, in various wordings, by the late economist Herb Stein. It's usually stated as follws: Stein's Law: If something cannot go on forever, then it won't. Each of these three indicators -- food prices, bond yields, xenophobia -- is increasing, and the increases cannot go on forever. It remains to be seen exactly what scenario will stop them. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Marine Le Pen's populism polls well in France" <#inc ww2010.pic g110707c.jpg right "" "Marine Le Pen and her father, Jean-Marie (AP)"#> French politician Marine Le Pen is attracting new voters to the National Front, the right-wing populist party founded by her father, by railing against immigration and globalization. With France's elections a year away, Le Pen is already polling ahead of President Nicolas Sarkozy. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,772875,00.html#ref=nlint "Spiegel"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Brazil's halts corn exports after frost cuts harvest" Excessive frost has already reduced Brazil's corn crop by 30%, and now a new cold snap is expected to lower it still further. This will present problems for Brazil's livestock farmers in finding sufficent feed, and it will be a difficult year ahead for chicken and hog producers as well. The result is that all corn exports have come to a halt. <#stdurl http://www.agrimoney.com/news/fears-grow-for-brazil-corn-as-further-freeze-looms--3329.html "AgriMoney"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=841 "8-Jul-11 News -- World food prices, euro bond yields and xenophobia increase, leading to a world heart attack"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110708 8-Jul-11 World View -- Iran increases arms shipments to Iraq =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110708.head 8-Jul-11 World View -- Iran increases arms shipments to Iraq =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110708.keys Generational Dynamics, iran, iraq, Israel, Turkey, flotilla, Nato, Libya, Pakistan, Yemen, North Korea =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110708.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110708.date 8-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110708.txt1 Israel's airport gears up for 'Welcome to Palestine' activists =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110708.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel's airport gears up for 'Welcome to Palestine' activists" <#inc ww2010.pic g110707d.jpg right "" "Israeli police deploy at Tel Aviv airport on Thursday"#> Israel braced on Thursday for the anticipated arrival of hundreds of pro-Palestinian activists at Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv, by boosting the police presence. The activists are planning to participate in what they say is a peaceful event dubbed “Welcome to Palestine,” designed to highlight conditions in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/israeli-airport-gears-up-against-activists/2011/07/07/gIQAFHQc2H_story.html# "Washington Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel and Turkey make amends before report on last year's flotilla" The United Nations on Thursday agreed to postpone until July 27 publication of a report on the confrontation between Israel's armed forces and last year's "Freedom Flotilla." The confrontation, which occurred on May 31, 2010, resulted in the deaths of nine Turkish pro-Palestinian activists. The document reportedly will say that Israeli forces acted lawfully, though using disproportionate force, and is expected to criticize Turkey's support for the seaborne provocation. Israel has said it would agree to a softening of the report's criticisms of Turkey in return for a normalization of relations between the two countries. <#stdurl http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jul/7/israel-turkey-try-to-ease-tensions-before-un-repor/ "Washington Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iran increases arms shipments to Shia militants in Iraq" As American troops make preparations to leave Iraq by the end of the year, Iran is stepping up its support for Shia militants, supplying them with more sophisticated weapons. According to Admiral Mike Mullen, Iran had made a decision to curtail its support for Shia factions in 2008, but has now increased its activity in Iraq, sending in lethal arms that were being used against American forces. "Iran is very directly supporting extremist troops which are killing our troops," he said on Thursday. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hHtqa502ILh1HW0NRzEMXX2L1u5w?docId=CNG.c62c2c1068ec4d42037ba1d842cf3d64.91 "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Nato forces attack Libya's oil facilities" Nato forces attacked Libya's oil facilities for the first time in this humanitarian kinetic military action, in an attempt to starve Muammar Gaddafi's army of fuel. The airstrikes were on the complex at Brega, one of the countries' biggest petrochemical complexes and port for export, and currently under control of the Gaddafi regime forces. The bombing, however, could be seen as a risky strategy for Nato, which has insisted that its forces are avoiding targeting infrastructure. <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/nato-strikes-at-libyas-oil-in-bid-to-oust-gaddafi-2308962.html "Independent"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "President Saleh of Yemen makes startling TV appearance" <#inc ww2010.pic g110707e.jpg right "" "Ali Abdullah Saleh before (right) and after (Al-Jazeera)"#> Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh, his face burned and his hands covered with bandages, made a startling appearance on TV on Thursday, for the first time since he was wounded in a bomb attack on June 3 in his palace in Yemen's capital, Sanaa. Saleh, who was hospitalised in Saudi Arabia after the June 3 attack, said he had undergone "more than eight successful operations." He appeared to be "defeated in some way" and "a more conciliatory figure." He indicated that he would remain as president, and that he welcomed power sharing as long as it was within the country's constitutional framework. <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/201177143420256530.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Ethnic violence in Karachi, Pakistan, takes 70 lives in three days" There were 34 more people mowed down in ethnic violence in Karachi, Pakistan, on Thursday, in an escalation that has taken the lives of 70 people in three days. Scores of people have received gunshot wounds inside their houses. While law enforcement agencies seem “toothless”, citizens prefer to stay at home for fear of further armed attacks. <#stdurl http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2011\07\08\story_8-7-2011_pg1_1 "Daily Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pakistan denies North Korean bribe in exchange for nuclear technology" In documents obtained by the Washington Post, Abdul Qadeer Khan (AQ Khan), the founder of Pakistan's nuclear program, says that North Korea bribed senior Pakistan military officers in the late 1990s, paying over $3 million to smuggle sensitive nuclear technology into North Korea. A Pakistani general named in the documents strongly denied on Thursday the report, while Pakistan's foreign office called the story "preposterous." <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/pakistans-nuclear-bomb-maker-says-north-korea-paid-bribes-for-know-how/2010/11/12/gIQAZ1kH1H_story.html "Washington Post"#> and <#stdurl http://www.dawn.com/2011/07/07/pakistan-denies-receiving-bribe-from-n-korea-for-nuclear-technology.html "Dawn (Pakistan)"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=841 "8-Jul-11 News -- World food prices, euro bond yields and xenophobia increase, leading to a world heart attack"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110707b 7-Jul-11 News -- Meltdown in US-Pakistan relations forces Afghan war changes =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110707b.head 7-Jul-11 News -- Meltdown in US-Pakistan relations forces Afghan war changes =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110707b.keys Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Afghanistan, gay rights =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110707b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110707b.date 7-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110707b.txt1 Protests in Karachi, Pakistan, over US gay rights event =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110707b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Meltdown in US-Pakistan relations forces Afghan war changes" President Barack Obama's recent announcement of an unexpectedly rapid drawdown of American troops in Afghanistan is producing a bitter reaction in Pakistan to the effect that America makes promises but, once again, is ignoring its promises and abandoning its allies, and that the Obama administration is acting for political purposes, and following narrow parochial interests. <#inc ww2010.pic g110706.jpg center "" "Alternate supply routes to Afghan war (WaPost)"#> The Pakistan public generally blames America for the numerous terrorist attacks from al-Qaeda and the Taliban that Pakistan has suffered since 9/11. Here's a typical view from <#stdurl http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=101396 "Pakistan Observer"#>:
"Pakistan is suffering the most in ongoing war on terror which is raging for over a decade and may go on for many more years. It is up against local militants of various hues funded, equipped trained and guided by foreign agencies based in Afghanistan. Bomb attacks and suicide attacks have become a routine. 30,000 civilians and 5000 security personnel have died in terror attacks. 9,000 security forces have received serious injuries while combating militancy. Afghan and NATO troops indulging in border violations and NATO jets frequently violate airspace and at times bomb security border posts. US Marines had undertaken a heli-borne raid in Angoor Adda in September 2009. Drone strike rate has accelerated from 2009 onwards and has reached a crescendo and hundreds of innocent people have died. ... Presence of US troops is bound to keep insurgency simmering which in turn will keep the region unstable. Pakistan is the most affected country since it will be up against several hostile forces. It will also have to contend with huge CIA network harboring ill designs against Pakistan. With large Indian presence of India in Afghanistan and continued patronage of US military, RAW [India's intelligence agency] will continue with its covert war against Pakistan. Karzai must understand that Pakistan and not USA will act as the proverbial straw to save him from drowning."The concern is that now that the Americans have come to Afghanistan and destabilized the country, they'll leave the country in much the same way that the Americans pulled out of Vietnam -- leaving behind a massive civil war. An analysis published by a Jordanian official and translated by <#stdurl http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5430.htm "Memri"#> says that the American withdrawal will turn Afghanistan into one big terrorist camp:
"But if the American forces indeed withdraw... when [Afghanistan] is still in this tragic state, with the Taliban able to reach any target it wants and Al-Qaeda still in existence and able to hit any target it wants, whether in [Afghanistan] or elsewhere – the situation is bound to return to what it was [before the Americans came]. And in this situation, we will surely see a recurrence of the tragedies that occurred following [America's] first withdrawal in the early 1990s, only in a more catastrophic form."These concerns have been fed by increases in cross-border attacks between Afghanistan and Pakistan. On Wednesday, hundreds of militants crossed from Afghanistan and attacked several border villages in Pakistan, triggering shootouts with local militias that killed at least five people, according to <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j7VmoT2tYUQ8tij50CWGsrQ7gLUQ?docId=17e06ef30221405a99e138eafa7e44ae "AP."#> On Tuesday, at least 150 militants came from Pakistan and overran three border checkpoints in eastern Afghanistan near the border, killing at least 12 Afghan border policemen. These acts are increasing tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Afganistan is accusing Pakistan of intentionally firing rockets into Afghanistan, firing at militants. The accusations have been denied. As tensions grow between Afghanistan and Pakistan, relations between the U.S. and Pakistan are in free fall. The U.S. has sharply reduced military aid to Pakistan, and the Pakistanis have thrown the Americans out of an airbase on Pakistani soil. The concern is that Pakistan could, once and for all, cut off the land route used by American forces to bring food, fuel and equipment from Karachi harbor to Afghanistan. There was, in fact, a brief cutoff in September. For that reason, the U.S. military is rapidly expanding its aerial and Central Asian supply routes to the war in Afghanistan, according to the <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-turns-to-other-routes-to-supply-afghan-war-as-relations-with-pakistan-fray/2011/06/30/AGfflYvH_story.html "Washington Post."#> The map at the beginning of this report shows the new routes. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Afghan counterinsurgency never had a chance of succeeding, largely because of the Pakistan connection. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110630b ""30-Jun-11 News -- Terrorist bombing of Kabul hotel shows power of Haqqani network.""#>) And anyway, in the end, the war in Afghanistan will be less important than the coming nuclear war between Pakistan and India. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Protests in Karachi, Pakistan, over US gay rights event" <#inc ww2010.pic g110706b.jpg right "" "Anti-American rally in Karachi over gay rights event (AFP)"#> About 100 demonstrators in Karachi on Monday protested to denounce a gay rights event hosted last month by the U.S. embassy, calling the meeting "an assault on Pakistan's Islamic culture." According to one Islamic leader, "We condemn the American conspiracy to encourage bisexualism in our country. They have destroyed us physically, imposed the so-called war on terrorism on us and now they have unleashed cultural terrorism on us. This meeting shows cruel America has unleashed a storm of immoral values on our great Islamic values, which we'll resist at all costs." <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jzInYnDVLgNxoOmMe-URQzf-MAAg?docId=CNG.af29a41eca1e4ad2ba4ea4f694697e6f.341 "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Guns and brawls in Afghan parliament" Some parliamentarians are carrying guns into Afghanistan's parliament, after a special election court disqualified 62 lawmakers in the 349-seat parliament. One Tuesday, two female members of parliament got into a brawl (sorry, no pics). <#stdurl http://www.pajhwok.com/en/2011/07/06/mps-carry-guns-parliament "Pajhwok Afghan News"#> and <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/07/05/afghanistan.fight/index.html "CNN"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=840 "7-Jul-11 News -- Meltdown in US-Pakistan relations forces Afghan war changes"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110707 7-Jul-11 World View -- Eurozone sharply split over Greece's debt crisis =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110707.head 7-Jul-11 World View -- Eurozone sharply split over Greece's debt crisis =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110707.keys Generational Dynamics, Libya, Eurozone, China, India, Palestinian Authority, Salam Fayyad, China, small business loans =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110707.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110707.date 7-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110707.txt1 Distrust between China and India growing at an alarming rate =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110707.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Rebels make gains in western Libya" <#inc ww2010.pic g110706c.jpg right "" "Rebel fighters in training"#> Fighting is still going on in Libya. Rebels captured the town of al-Qawalish in western Libya from Gaddafi supporters after a six hour battle. The rebels hope to cut off the road to Tripoli that carries Gaddafi's supplies. <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/07/201176153213449975.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Eurozone sharply split over Greece's debt crisis" The plan put forth as the "French plan" to bail out Greece is being called "illusory" by the Dutch finance minister because no investor will volutarily share in the costs of a bailout, and any involuntary sharing would push Greece into "selected default." Prices on credit default swaps (CDSs) for Portugal's government debt skyrocketed on Wednesday, indicating that investors expect Portugal to follow the same insolvency path as Greece. <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jul/06/eurozone-split-over-new-greece-bailout "Guardian"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Distrust between China and India growing at an alarming rate" At the global level, the rhetoric between India and China is all about cooperation, and indeed the two sides have worked together on climate change, global trade negotiations and demanding a restructuring of global financial institutions in view of the global economy’s shifting center of gravity. But at the bilateral level, tensions are mounting, and the potential for military conflict is high, especially over boundary issues. <#stdurl http://www.fpri.org/enotes/201106.pant.china_india.html "Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Palestinian Authority will only pay half its employees' salaries" Prime Minister Salam Fayyad announced on Wednesday that a severe financial crisis faced by the Palestinian Authority will force the government to pay its civil servants only half of their salaries. The crisis is coming about because international donors, many of them Arab, are failing to meet their commitments to the PA. PA Secretary-General Yasser Abed Rabbo said that the Palestinians were surprised by the Arab countries’ failure to assist them. "The situation has become very complicated for the Palestinian Authority because of the failure of the Arab countries to fulfill their financial promises. This is regretful." <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=228189 "Jerusalem Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Unauthorized ordinations lead to excommunications in China" Unauthorized ordination of a Catholic bishop in China will result in "automatic excommunication" of that bishop. Seven previously ordained bishops participated in the new ordination, and it's under debate whether they should be excommunicated as well for participating. These seven bishops have clearly violated Vatican law, but there are mitigating circumstances, for example, "when the individual committing the offence of ordaining or being ordained, is constrained to do so through great fear, even if this is only relative, or through necessity or great trouble." <#stdurl http://vaticaninsider.lastampa.it/en/homepage/the-vatican/detail/articolo/4215/ "Vatican Insider"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx " Will America's budget deficit bring an end to world peace?" There are 50,000 American troops stationed in Japan. There are more in South Korea. They're all there to keep the peace. People all over the world have benefited from U.S. military presence that has provided stability that has rarely been seen in history. President Obama wants to pull back from those overseas commitments, and use the money to rebuild our own nation, here at home. But there is no one else in the world that can replace America's unique leadership in providing world security. Time =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Small businesses can't get loans" Analysts have been predicting a "V-shaped recovery" for three years, and in particular they've been predicting that the credit freeze that began in 2007 would finally begin to thaw in 2011. Instead, borrowing has only gotten worse. Large companies are successful in securing large bank loans, but loans to small businesses plummeted 10% below their already low levels last year. <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304314404576411901168183390.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Dennis the Dentist and Lawrence the Lawyer" Here's a weird fact. People called Dennis are disproportionately likely to become dentists, and people called Lawrence are more likely to become lawyers. <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/pda/2011/mar/02/ted-2011-roundup-web-entrepreneurs "Guardian"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=840 "7-Jul-11 News -- Meltdown in US-Pakistan relations forces Afghan war changes"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110706b 6-Jul-11 News -- Denmark's border controls called a 'European crisis' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110706b.head 6-Jul-11 News -- Denmark's border controls called a 'European crisis' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110706b.keys Generational Dynamics, Denmark, border controls, xenophobia =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110706b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110706b.date 6-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110706b.txt1 Anti-immigrant xenophobia growing around the world =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110706b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Denmark's border controls called a 'European crisis'" Denmark began on Tuesday to station 50 new customs agents on the country's borders with Germany and Sweden, to implement the new "permanent border control" law that the parliament had passed on Friday by a single vote (90 to 89). The will perform spot checks on vehicles arriving from neighboring countries, according to the <#stdurl http://www.cphpost.dk/component/content/51886.html?task=view "Copenhagen Post."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110705.jpg center "" "Danish customers officer inspects a vehicle on Tuesday on border with Germany. (Reuters)"#> The new law was demanded by the right-wing populist Danish People’s Party (DPP) and, according to DPP leader Pia Kjærsgaard, designed to keep out “criminals from Eastern Europe and illegal economic migrants," according to <#stdurl http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2011/0705/Denmark-imposes-new-border-checks-to-keep-out-immigrants-criminals "CS Monitor."#> As we wrote when the law was being considered (see <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110513b ""13-May-11 News -- Europe's immigration crisis strikes at heart of European Union""#>), this situation is considered to be a major crisis for Europe. The law appears to violate a 1995 agreement called the "Schengen Agreement," signed by the EU nations, guaranteeing an "open border" policy among EU nations. The agreement to permit free travel between EU countries for the first time in history was considered to be of historical importance, and now that it's being rolled back, there's fear that the entire European project is being rolled back. A German politician is infuriating Danes by suggesting that retaliate against Denmark for the law by boycotting Denmark in their vacation plans, according to <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,772521,00.html "Spiegel"#>:
"If Denmark reintroduces border controls during the vacation season, I can only advise people to turn around and go on vacation in Austria or Poland. Freedom of travel is one of Europe's most visible achievements. Those who assail it ... are carving away at the European idea."Danish officials say that the purpose of the new law is to fight organized crime, human trafficking and the drugs trade, and so it does not contradict EU law. Danish customs officer Orla Olesen said: "Illegal immigrants aren't our highest priority. The human-smuggler at the wheel with four immigrants is as interesting to us as a drunk driver, but of course we also then intervene." According to an analysis in <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,772517,00.html "Spiegel,"#> right-wing nationalism is growing in Europe, and it's possible that "Europe is crumbling":
"But something has changed fundamentally since the 1990s. Europe's nations are no longer ruled by dyed-in-the-wool champions of the European project like Helmut Kohl, François Mitterand or Felipe Gonzales, but by cool and calculating politicians like Angela Merkel or political egocentrics such as Nicolas Sarkozy. The main difference between these politicians and the right-wing populists is in ther methods: Whereas the populists openly proclaim their desire to exit the EU, the others are eliminating the political union bit by bit."From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is exactly what happens in a generational Crisis era. The survivors of the previous crisis war (WW II) understand the dangers of xenophobia that lead to discrimination and harsh immigration laws. That's why the Schengen agreement was so important to WW II survivors like like Helmut Kohl, François Mitterand or Felipe Gonzales. As the survivors of the previous crisis war retire and die off, the younger generations become more xenophobic again, and that leads to a new crisis war. Europe isn't the only place that this kind of anti-immigrant xenophobia is growing. According to an analysis last October in <#stdurl http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-Issues/2010/1009/Global-doors-slam-shut-on-immigrants "CS Monitor,"#> countries around the world are pursuing tough immigration polices on a scale rarely seen in history. The article points to increasing anti-immigrant policies of one kind or another in Sweden, France, Britain, Netherlands and other countries. According to the article, the most vociferous immigration debate anywhere is in America on the border with Mexico:
"The first reason is that the actual number of undocumented workers relative to the population is much higher [in the US] than in most European countries," says Jonathan Chaloff, an analyst with the international migration division of the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). "The second reason is that the economic downturn has made it more of an issue. In European countries with large undocumented populations, there is a relatively high employment rate among the undocumented, and no perception of competition with natives, while in the US there's a perception that the undocumented are not employed or are unfairly competing."The article also points out that: Just as Americans want Mexicans out, Mexicans, who might be tolerant of their country as a passageway north to the United States, have no patience with the undocumented Guatemalans and Hondurans increasingly falling short of their destinations. Denmark's new border controls are just one sign that anti-immigrant xenophobia is growing around the world, and it will continue to grow until it is resolved by a world war. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=839 "6-Jul-11 News -- Denmark's border controls called a 'European crisis'"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110706 6-Jul-11 World View -- Moody's cuts Portugal's debt rating to junk status =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110706.head 6-Jul-11 World View -- Moody's cuts Portugal's debt rating to junk status =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110706.keys Generational Dynamics, Germany, Constitutional Court, Moody's, Portugal, Iran, Bahrain, Sunni, Shia, Hama, Syria, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Anne Sinclair, drought, Somalia, Kenya =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110706.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110706.date 6-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110706.txt1 Iran's Bahrain defeat is a seminal event in Sunni/Shia relations =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110706.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Germany's Constitutional Court to decide legality of bailouts" <#inc ww2010.pic g110705b.jpg right "" "Germany's Constitutional Court"#> Another potential problem for the EU's plans to bail out Greece arose on Tuesday as Germany's Constitutional Court began hearings on the legality of Germany's involvement in bailouts for Greece and other eurozone countries. The critics are arguing that Germany's involvement in the debt rescue plan violates the German Constitution by undercutting parliament's rights to review and determine the national budget. An adverse ruling would mean that any further bailouts would require approval by Germany's parliament, which is unlikely, given the German public's growing hostility to the "profligate Greeks." <#stdurl http://www.thelocal.de/national/20110705-36087.html "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Moody's cuts Portugal's debt rating to junk status" Moody's Investors Service cut Portugal's credit rating to below investment grade on Tuesday, and said that there may be further ratings downgrades. One reason given for the move is the "contagion" from the Greek crisis. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-05/portugal-possibly-following-greece-in-bailout-leads-to-moody-s-rating-cut.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iran's Bahrain defeat is a seminal event in Sunni/Shia relations" When anti-government protests began in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia send troops into Bahrain and, in doing so, was able to force Bahrain to remain under Sunni rule, despite its majority Shia population. In fact, Saudi Arabia was extremely aggressive in its anti-Iran rhetoric, while Iran handled the situation with great passivity. This is just one of several recent events that expose Iran's weaknesses. These include the uprisings in Syria, and post-revolutionary Egypt's refusal to renew relations with Iran. <#stdurl http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5424.htm "Memri"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Germany approves sale of advanced tanks to Saudi Arabia" For decades, Germany has refused to sell battle tanks to Saudi Arabia and other Arab states because of its historical obligation towards Israel and its policy of prohibiting the sale of weapons to crisis regions. But now the government has approved the sale of up to 200 advanced "Leopard" tanks to Saudi Arabia, outraging opposition parties in Berlin. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,772501,00.html "Spiegel"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Bloody massacre in Hama, Syria, continues" The expected assault on Hama by Syria's security forces reached maximum impact on Tuesday, as security forces cut off electricity and water and shot people indiscriminately in the streets. When tanks and armored vehicles approached the edges of the city early on Tuesday, hundreds of youths blocked roads leading to residential neighborhoods with garbage containers, wood and metal to try to prevent a possible advance. By evening, security forces had broken through the roadblocks, and are conducting arrests. <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/20117575942416758.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Dominique Strauss-Kahn's wife Anne Sinclair plots revenge" Anne Sinclair, Dominique Strauss-Kahn's wife, is hinting that she might exact revenge against "those who spit in our face." The statement was texted to friends shortly after DSK was freed from house arrest because her rape accuser, Nafissatou Diallo, had been found to have lied repeatedly. Sinclair has continued to express her love for him, even after he's apologized for past indiscretions. "Dominique is her passion, her family, her life," according to one observer. <#stdurl http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/2011/07/05/2011-07-05_dominique_strausskahns_wife_plotting_revenge_against_those_who_have_turned_on_hi.html "NY Daily News"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Severe drought ravages Somalia and Kenya" An extremely severe drought has created millions of refugees, as they travel to find food and water. The humanitarian agency ActionAid is appealing for nearly $2.5 million for its relief operations in Kenya and elsewhere in East Africa. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/decapua-kenya-drought-5july11-125017854.html "VOA"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=839 "6-Jul-11 News -- Denmark's border controls called a 'European crisis'"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110705b 5-Jul-11 News -- EU bailout plan for Greece collapses, as fraud and extortion continue =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110705b.head 5-Jul-11 News -- EU bailout plan for Greece collapses, as fraud and extortion continue =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110705b.keys Generational Dynamics, Standard & Poor's, Greece, French Model, Wolfgang Münchau =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110705b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110705b.date 5-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110705b.txt1 An immovable object meets an irresistible force =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110705b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "EU bailout plan for Greece collapses, as fraud and extortion continue" Standard & Poor's rating service on Monday said that the bailout proposal by French banks (the so-called <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110629b "'French Model'"#>) would prompt a "selective default" rating on Greek debt, according to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-04/greek-rescue-effort-by-europe-may-earn-the-country-default-rating-from-s-p.html "Bloomberg,"#> effectively sinking the plan. (We're not talking about the 3-month bailout that we <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110704 "reported yesterday."#> We're talking about the follow-on 120 billion euro bailout, to cover Greece's debt payments through the end of 2013.) <#inc ww2010.pic g110704.gif center "" "Exposure of various countries to a Greek debt default (Reuters)"#> The S&P statement should hardly be a surprise to anyone. As I've written in the past, the assumptions of the French Model are inherently contradictory. The Europeans don't want taxpayers to bear the entire cost of the bailout. So they want investors to share in the bailout. But they don't want to force investors to share in the bailout, since that would force a default on Greece's debt. So they want the sharing to be "voluntary." But no investor would "voluntarily" lose money, so the whole idea is contradictory and impossible. A European financial analyst that I heard on al-Jazeera on Monday said that the Europeans are absolutely furious that the S&P is torpedoing the European plan. "What right do Americans have to overrule the European government?" was being asked by unnamed European officials, along with unspecified threats against S&P. None of the analysts I heard on any channel claimed that the rating statement was wrong. There was simply anger that S&P had told the truth. Thus, the unspecified threats amount the extortion to force S&P to commit fraud. Extortion and fraud are the norm today, especially in Europe. S&P has good reason to be honest about its rating of the French Model. In the years up to 2007, Citibank, JP Morgan and other investment banks created and sold extremely complex CDOs and other synthetic securities that are <#hreftext ww2010.i.smoking100414 "mathematically provable as fraudulent."#> Nonetheless, S&P was bribed and extorted by the investment banks to give them AAA ratings, thus committing fraud. Extortion and fraud have been the norm for a number of years now. But having committed fraud for so many years, and being blamed for a major part of the financial crisis, S&P now is not going to be too eager to commit fraud again, especially with the intense scrutiny going on today. One of the most widely respected European analysts is Wolfgang Münchau, associate editor of the Financial Times. In a <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/039b6ce0-a582-11e0-83b2-00144feabdc0.html "weekend column"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>, Münchau made a blistering attack on the French plan. He accuses the European politicians of purposely making the French plan as complex as possible -- as complex as a CDO -- in order "to obfuscate facts and circumvent rules." He summarizes the plan, and says:
"If this was any other field of human activity, you would go to jail if you accepted, let alone made such an indecent offer. ... All there is, is this dirty little con-trick. The complexity of the scheme is due to the need to persuade the rating agencies not to attach a default rating to Greek bonds. The rollover agreement represents, from an economic point of view, nothing but a collateralised bond. It subordinates all other bondholders. The rating agencies would normally not hesitate to attach a default rating to Greek government debt. So the solution is to create a complex structure, and claim that it is technically not a collateralised bond, but something that defies definition. Just why the Greeks would want to accept such a ruinous deal is not clear to me. ... We have learnt from the financial crisis that one should not place too much faith in financial vehicles with three-letter acronyms. But that is what we are doing with this European equivalent of a late-period subprime mortgage CDO. We are not just “kicking” any old “can down the road” any more. This is a can of explosives."Münchau wrote this column before the S&P downgrade, and as he suggested, "rating agencies [did] not hesitate to attach a default rating to Greek government debt." =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greek privatization delusion" In order to get its 3-month bailout on Sunday, Greece's parliament had to approve harsh austerity measures, including the privatization of state-owned companies on a massive scale, requiring employees of these companies to lose their jobs or to take substantial pay cuts. Nobody believes that Greece will do this on their own, and so the EU is threatening to 'massively limit' Greece's sovereignty, as we <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110704 "reported yesterday."#> The mechanism would be an external agency modeled on Germany's 'Treuhand agency' that sold off 14,000 East German firms between 1990 and 1994. It is delusional to think that Greece's public sector labor unions will tolerate this without a great deal of violence. As one web site reader succinctly put it yesterday, "Greece will be happy to keep taking the money, but they have absolutely no desire (let alone ability) to pay any of it back. And if people think the Greeks are going to sit idly while Germany, the same people who invaded them during World War II, takes away their sovereignty from them, they're delusional." The stakes are very high in Europe, and no one cares about anyone but himself. Fraud and extortion are the norm, and no one is safe. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "An immovable object meets an irresistible force" On the one hand, you have the public sector labor unions, who are going to be asked to accept more and more job losses and salary cuts. On the other hand, you have the donor countries - Germany, Finland, Slovakia and the Netherlands - who are going to be asked to give more and more to the debtor countries. They'll try to "kick the can down the road" as much as they can, but already they're running out of options. One of the great questions of philosophy is: What happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object? We may be about to find out. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=838 "5-Jul-11 News -- EU bailout plan for Greece collapses, as fraud and extortion continue"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110705 5-Jul-11 World View -- Hugo Chavez makes triumphant return to Venezuela =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110705.head 5-Jul-11 World View -- Hugo Chavez makes triumphant return to Venezuela =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110705.keys Generational Dynamics, Hugo Chavez, Turkey, Libya, Venezuela, Cuba, Syria, Hama, China, Varyag aircraft carrier =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110705.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110705.date 5-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110705.txt1 China postpones sea trial of new aircraft carrier =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110705.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Hugo Chavez makes triumphant return to Venezuela" <#inc ww2010.pic g110704c.jpg right "" "Chavez hugs his daughters on the balcony of Miraflores Palace in Caracas, July 4, 2011 (Reuters)"#> Well, apparently he fooled everyone. When Hugo Chávez gave his televised speech from Cuba on Thursday evening, looking sick as a pig and saying that he had cancer, it was apparently all theatre. On Monday morning he returned to Venezuela, a little thinner, but looking relatively OK. He indicated that he has a long battle ahead to fully recover. His Interior Minister added, "But that doesn't mean that the revolutionary government's actions will slacken." <#stdurl http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE76322Y20110705 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey seizes Libyan Bank assets" Turkey seized control of Libyan bank assets Monday, one day after recognizing Libya's opposition in Benghazi as the country's legitimate government, in moves that effectively severed remaining ties to Col. Muammar Gaddafi. <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304760604576425700767313490.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria's army begins assault on city of Hama" As expected, Syria's tanks, troops and bulldozers on Monday swept into the city of Hama, beginning an assault on the city is known for having massacred civilians in 1982. At least three people were killed on Monday, including a 12-year-old boy, and dozens injured. <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-syria-sweep-20110705,0,3757510.story "LA Times"#> Hundreds of people gathered in downtown Chicago to support the anti-government movement in Syria and urge protesters there to continue their uprising against President Bashar Assad. <#stdurl http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-ap-il-syriaprotests-chi,0,3571410.story "Chicago Tribune"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China postpones sea trial of new aircraft carrier" <#inc ww2010.pic g110704b.jpg right "" "Varyag aircraft carrier"#> China has postponed the sea trial of the Varyag aircraft carrier, originally purchased from Ukraine, and under refurbishment at the Port of Dalian. The official reason for the delay is mechanical problems, but it's also possible that tensions in the South China Sea played a part. <#stdurl http://www.defenceweb.co.za/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=16861:maiden-voyage-of-chinas-first-aircraft-carrier-delayed-a-month&catid=51:Sea&Itemid=106 "Defence Web (S. Africa)"#> Conventional wisdom on China’s carrier plan suggests that the Chinese leadership did not put enough planning in personnel development, and therefore will face a lot of difficulties in operating a carrier group. A review of the training programs developed to cultivate the commanders for its aircraft carriers suggest an ambitious, meticulous and long-term strategy, however. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38128&tx_ttnews[backPid]=381&cHash=a99ffad91bc1d122cec7eb29452196e9 "Jamestown"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=838 "5-Jul-11 News -- EU bailout plan for Greece collapses, as fraud and extortion continue"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110704b 4-Jul-11 News -- Independence Day, 2021 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110704b.head 4-Jul-11 News -- Independence Day, 2021 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110704b.keys Generational Dynamics, Independence Day, 2021, Obamacare, Singularity =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110704b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110704b.date 4-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110704b.txt1 America and the World in Recovery =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110704b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Independence Day, 2021" Pete Schweizer has asked me, for Independence Day, to write something upbeat and optimistic. This is not an easy task for me, given that I'm the gloomiest person in the world. <#inc ww2010.pic future.gif center "" "The Future"#> But in fact, I AM upbeat and optimistic about the 2020s. So, instead of talking about Independence Day 2011, let's go a decade into the future, to July 4, 2021, and look at the world then. This is speculative, but it's grounded in generational theory. Let's start with some optimistic assumptions. We have no way of predicting whether America will survive the coming world war and world financial meltdown. So let's assume that America survives, and let's go even farther -- let's assume that America "wins" (whatever that means) the world war. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "America and the World in Recovery" July 4, 2021, will be a day of jubilation for Americans. We will have beaten the financial crisis and we will have, once again, defeated an enemy that wanted to destroy us. Once again, we will have proven American exceptionalism. There will be joyous parades of war veterans, as the country as a whole cheers, along with President Doe who welcomes the veterans back home and thanks them. But, as President Doe says, there's much work to be done. Hundreds of cities around the nation and around the world contain large "dead zones," where radioactive contamination makes them unliveable. Bridges, trains, and other infrastructure have been destroyed, making delivery of food to some populations almost impossible. With over 2 billion people having been killed by disease, famine and war, there will be a new Green Revolution, to make sure that no one ever starves again. These are all job opportunities. Unlike the 2000s decade, when the economy was contracting and growth was impossible, in the 2020s there are plenty of jobs, and the economy is exploding with growth. America establishes a new Marshall Plan, and sets out to rebuild America and the world. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "New technology" During the war, super-intelligent robots will be used to kill people. At first, they will be under direct control of humans, but by the end of the war, there will be thousands of these robots making their own "shoot to kill" decisions, based on software algorithms programmed in to them. By July 4, 2021, these robots will be repurposed for Recovery. They'll be able to remediate radioactive waste sites that would be deadly for a human. They'll be able to do many of the tedious, repetitious chores involved in anything from rebuilding a home to harvesting crops. Special attention will be given to medical care. Returning veterans will be fitted with "intelligent prosthetics" that work better than their former limbs. Sick people will have "intelligent nursemaids" available for 24 hours a day. A lot more medical care will be possible in the home, essentially providing each family with a full-time doctor/nurse at home. It's quite possible that President Obama will get the credit for universal health care. The current "Obamacare" plan is economically disastrous, and will not be implemented, as I've <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110625b "previously described."#> However, once the war ends, the health care issue will be revived. Universal health care will finally be possible, thanks to the new technology described in the last paragraph. The result may (or may not) be credited to Obama or his successor. Issues that fill the news today will have become irrelevant. New technology will resolve the climate change issue, for example. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The world economy and geopolitics" The dollar, by virtue of its position as the world's major reserve currency, will most likely still be the strongest currency in the world. Other currencies likely to do well are the pound sterling and the yen. Many other currencies, including the euro and the yuan, will most likely be ravaged by hyperinflation. After falling for almost 15 years, housing prices will start to rise again. The stock market, having crashed to Dow 2000, will finally start its long recovery. Europe will have been torn apart by the war, and will decide to apply "lessons learned" from the first attempt at a European Union. They'll try again, and this time the EU will be much more cohesive, possibly very similar to the United States. There will be an NUN -- a New United Nations, with a new organizational structure. The NUN will attempt to resolve the issues revolving around the world's most dangerous regions, and the results will depend on who wins in each region. Thus, whether Israel will survive as a Jewish state will depend not only on whether it survives the war, but also whether the world blames the Jews or the Arabs for the problems of the Mideast. The future of Kashmir/Jammu and the future of Taiwan will be decided, based on the political sensibilities of the time, and the aftermath of the nuclear war between India and Pakistan. In regions around the world, the NUN will redraw country boundaries with only one objective in mind: To guarantee peace for as long as possible. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Culture" The bickering and divisiveness of the 2000s decade will be gone, and the country will be fully unified for the first time since the end of World War II. As in the 1950s, women who earlier had faced starvation and homelessness, possibly becoming refugees when nuclear missiles attack their home towns, will consider staying at home and taking care of the kids to be a gift from heaven. Something like the Great Band Era will return. Your iPad of the 2020s will carry in its memory every musical recording ever made, and so live music will become the most valuable form of entertainment. Even though new movies will be available on home entertainment centers, movie theatres will still be around for dates, or just to get out of the house. However, the villains of the country and the world will be clearly and unambiguously identified, as in the Nazis of WW II. In business, the bankers seem to dig themselves deeper and deeper every day towards being the most hated group in the world. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The 2030s" The 2020s will be a jubilant time for America, but the 2030s will present new challenges. In particular, that will be the time of the Singularity -- the point in time when computers become more intelligent than humans and start improving themselves rapidly. The Singularity may be the greatest boon to humanity, or the greatest disaster. It could go either way, and there's no way to predict. Happy Independence Day, everyone! (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=837 "4-Jul-11 News -- Independence Day, 2021"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110704 4-Jul-11 World View -- Thailand's Yingluck Shinawatra wins decisively =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110704.head 4-Jul-11 World View -- Thailand's Yingluck Shinawatra wins decisively =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110704.keys Generational Dynamics, Yingluck Shinawatra, Thailand, Thaksin Shinawatra, Greece, Jean-Claude Juncker, Hama, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Islamic banking, participation banking, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey, Transitional National Council, Libya, Ahmet Davutoglu, Israel, Palestine, pigeons, Symantec, Stuxnet =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110704.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110704.date 4-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110704.txt1 EU threatens to 'massively limit' Greece's sovereignty =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110704.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Yingluck Shinawatra wins decisive victory in Thailand" <#inc ww2010.pic g110703c.jpg right "" "Yingluck Shinawatra (Bangkok Post)"#> Yingluck Shinawatra led her Pheu Thai ("For Thais") to a decisive victory in Sunday's elections, making it all but certain that she will be the next prime minister of Thailand, and Thailand's first female prime minister. (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110701b ""Thailand's Yingluck promises to use 'femininity' to resolve disputes""#>) She ran a brilliant marketing campaign, with every step scripted by advisors, especially her older brother, Thaksin, living in self-imposed exile in Dubai. Now the only problem left is for her to deal with Thailand's growing ethnic conflicts, Thailand's growing public debt, and the army that overthrew Thaksin in a coup just five years ago. <#stdurl http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/245285/the-making-of-a-prime-minister "Bangkok Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "EU approves 3-month bailout of Greece" Because the Greek parliament approved a harsh austerity plan on Wednesday, European finance ministers authorized an 8.7 billion euro loan payment to Greece by mid-July, just in time for Greece to pay some very sizeable bills that will be coming due. Another 3.1 billion euros will be provided by the IMF. The money will be enough to get Greece through September. In the meantime, the EU will be trying to figure out to approve an additional 110 billion euro bailout to get Greece through 2013, even though everyone "knows" that Greece will never pay the money back. However, before that happens, Greece will have to start implementing its harsh austerity plan, including privatization of public utilities. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-03/greece-buys-time-as-euro-ministers-press-investor-talks-to-wrap-up-bailout.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "EU threatens to 'massively limit' Greece's sovereignty" <#inc ww2010.pic g110602b.jpg right "" "Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker"#> Now that Greece has theoretically approved the austerity measures, the EU is pressuring Greece to implement them as quickly as possible. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said that Greece must not lose momentum in pushing through crucial reforms:
"The next step must be tackled decisively - the measures passed in Athens have to be quickly implemented. The privatizations, for example, have to be started without delay."But the statement that's infuriating Greece's public sector unions is the one by Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of the Eurogroup finance ministers, saying that Greece must accept severe restrictions on its sovereignty:
"The sovereignty of Greece will be massively limited. For the forthcoming wave of privatizations they will need, for example, a solution based on a model of Germany's 'Treuhand agency' One cannot be allowed to insult the Greeks. But one has to help them. They have said they are ready to accept expertise from the eurozone."This is the European version of "I'm from the government, and I'm here to help you." Germany's "Treuhand Agency" sold off 14,000 East German firms between 1990 and 1994, after the Berlin Wall fell and East and West Germany were reunited. <#stdurl http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_03/07/2011_396892 "Kathimerini"#> and <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/03/us-greece-juncker-idUSTRE7620ZK20110703 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria's security forces plan major assault on city of Hama" Army tanks are being deployed around the city of Hama, which saw a huge protest Friday against President Bashar al-Assad. People are being arrested and shot in preparation for the assault. Security forces killed at least 60 protesters in the city a month ago, by firing on crowds of demonstrators. Hama was the site of a huge massacre by security forces of Assad's father. Turkey has warned Assad against repeating "another Hama." <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8614174/Syrian-tanks-deployed-in-Hama.html "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Islamic banking uses different mechanisms besides interest payments" Sharia compliant banks are not permitted to pay or charge interest ("riba"), because it's forbidden under Islamic law. But Islamic banking (or "participation banking") uses different mechanisms. For examples, money from customers' savings accounts is invested in real estate or industry, and profit and loss is shared with the customer. Instead of a car loan, the bank buys the car and sells it to the customer in installments. Currently, 5% of deposits, assets and loans in Turkey are held by participation banks, and that figure is expected to grow. <#stdurl http://setimes.com/cocoon/setimes/xhtml/en_GB/features/setimes/features/2011/07/01/feature-04 "Southeast Europe Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey's PM Erdogan won the election, but faces problems" Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's victory in June 12 elections makes him Turkey's most powerful leader since Kemal Ataturk, the founder of Turkey. Erdogan's style has been described as authoritarian, with a vindictive streak. However, Turkey faces serious problem. One is the portential war on his border with Syria. Another is skyrocketing public debt and unemployment -- 9.5% unemployment rate, 19.3% for Turkish youth. <#stdurl http://www.fpri.org/enotes/201106.robbins.turkey.html "Foreign Policy Research Institute"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey recognizes Libyan rebels as legitimate government" Turkey has now completely reversed its position from when the Nato military intervention into Libya began. At that time, Nato opposed the military action, and was supporting Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. But on Sunday, Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu recognized the rebel Transitional National Council as the legitimate representative of the Libyan people. Davutoglu also said that Turkey will provide another $200 million in aid, adding to the $100 million fund previously announced. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Libyan-Rebel-Chief-Gadhafi-Can-Stay-in-Libya-if-He-Resigns-124939364.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israeli and Palestinian security forces cooperate to prevent violence" Israeli and Palestinian security forces are taking precautions to avoid an outbreak of violence after an expected U.N. vote for Palestinian independence in September. <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/ap-exclusive-israeli-palestinian-forces-hope-to-thwart-violence-in-september/2011/07/03/AGfIqawH_story.html "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pigeons can recognize human faces" <#inc ww2010.pic g110703b.jpg right "" "Be careful! They're watching you!"#> Researchers at the University of Paris Ouest Nanterre La Défense have discovered that wild, untrained pigeons can recognize individual people's faces, and are not fooled by a change of clothes. They theorize that this recognition ability may have come about over the long period of association with humans, from early domestication to many years of living in cities. <#stdurl http://www.livescience.com/14895-pigeons-recognize-human-faces.html "Live Science"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "How Symantec cracked Stuxnet" For techies: Stuxnet is the virus that targeted an Iranian nuclear processing station, and destroyed about 1,000 centrifuges used in uranium separation. This article describes how Stuxnet works, and how it was discovered. <#stdurl http://www.readwriteweb.com/hack/2011/06/how-symantec-cracked-stuxnet.php "Read Write Web"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=837 "4-Jul-11 News -- Independence Day, 2021"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110703b 3-Jul-11 News -- From Cuba to China, people worry about demise of Venezuela's Chavez =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110703b.head 3-Jul-11 News -- From Cuba to China, people worry about demise of Venezuela's Chavez =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110703b.keys Generational Dynamics, Cuba, Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, China =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110703b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110703b.date 3-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110703b.txt1 Leading the struggle for socialism =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110703b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "From Cuba to China, people worry about demise of Venezuela's Chavez" When Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez, in Cuba for an operation, gave a pre-recorded TV address on Thursday evening to announce that he had cancer, said that he was fine, and that he was still running the country as a long-distance president. In a phone call on Friday, he was so optimistic that he said that his illness would "strengthen" him, according to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-02/chavez-says-cancer-to-strengthen-him-optimistic-on-recovery.html "Bloomberg."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110702.jpg center "" "Hugo Chavez on TV on Thursday"#> Chavez didn't say what kind of cancer he had, or at what stage, but doctors consulted by the <#stdurl http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/07/01/2295799/hugo-chavezs-cancer-puts-2012.html "Miami Herald"#> agree that from the few details Chávez shared, he most likely has colon cancer and could face treatment for the next eight to nine months.
“What struck me is that at one point during his announcement, he misspoke and said ‘evolution’ instead of ‘evaluation.’ He corrected himself, but it was odd that in a video that was so staged — complete with props of the Venezuelan flag and a painting of Simon Bolivar — they did not do a retake,” said Douglas Leon, president of the Venezuelan Medical Federation. “What does that say? To me, it says he can only stand up for about 20 minutes, and they couldn’t let him stand for the time it would take to do it over.”The shock announcement has put Venezuelan politics into turmoil as the 2012 presidential election approaches. If and when Chavez returns to Venezuela, the country will be in considerably worse shape than it was when he left it, according to <#stdurl http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2011/07/02/venezuelas-chronic-problems/ "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>. With Chavez convalescing, there are serious problems that are likely to fall by the wayside -- a housing shortage, violence in overcrowded prisons, and electrical blackouts across the country. Venezuela's politics is largely dependent on Chavez's personality and personal relationships, and those relationships will suffer if Chavez is forced to leave office. China, for example, signed a huge oil deal with Venezuela in 2009, according to the <#stdurl http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8260200.stm "BBC."#> But the greatest effect of the disappearance of Chavez, if it occurs, would be on Cuba itself. When Chavez came to power in 1999, Cuba's economy was in tatters, after losing the East bloc support it depended on for three decades, according to <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5h5saUN4qZgFbX5fh3gLr0Lpoi1tA?docId=CNG.8afa091e5483810446b19e5247e325f9.a31 "AFP."#> Cuba's cooperation with Venezuela generates about $6 billion a year for Cuba, its top source of income. Venezuela is invovled in Cuban projects big and small, in oil, fiber optic cable, food supplies, technology, transportation and tourism. Venezuela provides 100,000 barrles of oil per day to Cuba, for little or no cost, and in return, Cuba sends almost 40,000 teachers and doctors to Venezuela - who don't always get paid. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Leading the struggle for socialism" The relationship between Venezuela and Cuba is not seen by Chavez as a purely commercial one. Chavez sees himself in the role of defeating capitalism and bringing back socialism, after the breakup of the Soviet Union. According to <#stdurl http://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/6307 "VenezuelAnalysis"#>:
"The most advanced political struggles in the world today are taking place in Latin America, specifically in Cuba and Venezuela where forces representing the working class have conquered state power, broken with imperialism and continue to consolidate their own revolutions and assist the leftward advance across the continent. Socialists should wholly identify with the leadership of the Cuban revolution, with Fidel Castro in particular, and with Hugo Chávez in Venezuela which are leaderships that seek to represent the interests of the working class and oppressed worldwide. First upturn in world politics for 30 years The advance of the class struggle in Latin America over the past decade was the first indication of an up-turn in the world political situation after the 1990s period of retreat following the destruction of the Soviet Union, the advance of capitalism into Eastern Europe and in Latin America including the defeat of the Nicaraguan revolution."I always feel that statements like these are really pathetic because, putting on my mathematician's hat, it's easy to prove from the mathematics of complexity theory that socialism becomes mathematically impossible as population increases. You can prove that enforcement of socialist policies eventually requires the entire population to become bureaucrats, so that there is no new production. That's why countries like Cuba and North Korea, and Eastern Europe before the collapse of the Soviet Union, were stuck in the 1950s. It's literally mathematically impossible for socialism to work. That's also why China gave up pure socialism several decades ago. It's also why Cuba itself is changing policies and will permit the buying and selling of homes and automobiles as personal property before the end of 2011, according to <#stdurl http://www.ahora.cu/english/sections/international/4547-cuba-buying-selling-of-homes-cars-by-yearas-end.html "Ahora (Cuba)."#> But Chavez isn't being defeated by the mathematics of complexity theory. Chavez is being defeated by cancer, the great leveler of socialists and capitalists alike. Unless the Cubans find a way to completely cure him, Chavez's dream of leading the world into a new, glorious era of socialism is not going to occur. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=836 "3-Jul-11 News -- From Cuba to China, people worry about demise of Venezuela's Chavez"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110703 3-Jul-11 World View -- Israel, Greece and Turkey stall Gaza flotilla =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110703.head 3-Jul-11 World View -- Israel, Greece and Turkey stall Gaza flotilla =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110703.keys Generational Dynamics, Barack Obama, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Israel, Greece, Turkey, China, Kim Jong-il, Kim Pyong-il, Associated Press, North Korea, Yemen, AQAP =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110703.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110703.date 3-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110703.txt1 Kim Jong-il's brother under house arrest in North Korea =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110703.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel, Greece and Turkey cooperate to stall the Gaza flotilla" <#inc ww2010.pic g110702b.jpg right "" "The U.S. flotilla ship 'Audacity of Hope' is being kept from leaving port for Gaza by Greek coast guard"#> A growing strategic relationship between President Obama and Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a major factor in the near collapse of "Freedom Flotilla II," the plan by pro-Palestinian activists to send 1500 activists on 10 ships to Gaza, to break Israel's naval blockade. Another factor is the growing strategic relationship between Israel and Greece, brought together by the common tensions with Turkey. The result, today, is a new US-Turkish alliance, along with Israel and Greece, that will oppose the Palestinians' plan for UN recognition of a Palestinian state in December. <#stdurl http://www.debka.com/article/21080/ "Debka"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China celebrates the 90th anniversary of its Communist Party" China's president Hu Jintao gave a speech on Friday to mark the 90th anniversary of the Communist party. Speaking to thousands of party officials at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Hu urged the party to fight corruption and create what he described as a clean government. He warned that acts of corruption by party members who hold political office could cause the public to lose trust. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/learningenglish/home/Hu-Warns-of-Dangers-From-Corruption-in-China-Party-124887654.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Kim Jong-il's Brother Under House Arrest in North Korea" <#inc ww2010.pic g110702c.jpg right "" "Kim Pyong-il looks too much like Kim Il-sung"#> You can't make this stuff up. Kim Pyong-il, the half-brother of North Korean dictator Kim Jong-il, has been held in house arrest since he returned in May from Poland, where he serves as ambassador. His crime? He looks too much like his father, the revered Kim Il-sung, who founded North Korea. The problem, it seems, is that the heir-apparent to dictatorship throne is Kim Jong-il's son, Kim Jong-un, and Kim Jong-un is himself cultivating the appearance of his grandfather. <#stdurl http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/07/01/2011070100412.html "Chosun"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Associated Press will open an bureau in Pyongyang, North Korea" North Korea's state-run Central News Agency (KCNA) and Associated Press signed a series of pacts that will allow AP to base text and photo jouranlists in the North Korean capital, Pyongyang. North Korea has no diplomatic relations with the U.S. <#stdurl http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2011/07/01/74/0401000000AEN20110701009800315F.HTML "Yonhap"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "New book encourages Yemen's tribes to join the jihad movement" With Yemen's president Ali Abdullah Saleh still being treated in a Saudi Arabia hospital for injuries incurred in a June 3 assassination attempt, both government and opposition forces are vying for the allegiance of the nation's tribal grouping. Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is trying to take advantage of the political chaos by stepping up its armed activities, and by the publication of a new book urging Yemen's tribes to join the jihad movement and AQAP. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38120&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=e7961e52d94fbb7ee814e95d4452bdb2 "Jamestown"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=836 "3-Jul-11 News -- From Cuba to China, people worry about demise of Venezuela's Chavez"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110702b 2-Jul-11 News -- France's politics in turmoil from collapse of Strauss-Kahn rape case =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110702b.head 2-Jul-11 News -- France's politics in turmoil from collapse of Strauss-Kahn rape case =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110702b.keys Generational Dynamics, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Cyrus Vance, Anne Sinclair, Nicolas Sarkozy, Duke Lacrosse, Mike Nifong, Innocence Project, Nafissatou Diallo, Kenneth Thompson, Susan Estrich, Paula Jones, Juanita Broaddrick, National Organization for Women (NOW) =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110702b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110702b.date 2-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110702b.txt1 The sad case of Susan Estrich =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110702b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "France's politics in turmoil from collapse of Strauss-Kahn rape case" Dominique Strauss-Kahn (DSK) was released from jail on his own recognizance on Friday, after being jailed and confined for six weeks, thanks to sexual assault charges by a chambermaid. However, now the prosecutor, Cyrus Vance, is indicating that the accuser, a Guinean woman named Nafissatou Diallo, has lied repeatedly, and has even fabricated previous assault claims. <#inc ww2010.pic g110701.jpg center "" "Dominique Strauss-Kahn and wife Anne Sinclair happy as they leave court on Friday (Le Monde)"#> Until recently, Strauss-Kahn was worldwide head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the leading challenger to run against Nicolas Sarkozy in next year's presidential election in France. The sexual assault allegations, which now appear to be have been fabricated, have cost him his job and probably his political career as well. <#inc ww2010.pic g110701b.jpg right "" "Nafissatou Diallo"#> The case is reminiscent of the "Duke Lacrosse rape case." In 2006, a black woman claimed that several members of the Duke College lacrosse team had raped her. District attorney Mike Nifong kept pursuing criminal charges against the team, for months after he knew for a fact that the alleged attack had never occurred. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e070422 ""Collapse of Duke rape case represents cultural change""#>) Strauss-Kahn prosecutor Cyrus Vance might have been tempted to try the same thing, rather than defy his feminist masters and let a man falsely accused of rape go free. But he's certainly aware that Nifong ended up being disbarred for his behavior, and Vance may have felt that he had to do the right thing just to save his own skin. Research by the Innocence Project has shown that some 5-7% of all rape accusations are fabricated. Women who make false accusations of rape often have a motive of revenge, but not always. Historically, the most well-known false accusations of rape occurred in the 70 years following the Civil War. A white woman would accuse a black male of raping her, and the black male would be lynched, and that would be that. Diallo's motive was probably not a high-tech lynching of Strauss-Kahn, but more likely pure money. The prosecutor Vance said that a day after the alleged rape, Diallo spoke to a drug dealer in prison for advice on maximizing her monetary gain. The conversation had been recorded. Diallo may have been dreaming of a reaching a multi-million dollar settlement with Strauss-Kahn and living the easy life. Diallo's lawyer, Kenneth Thompson, was certainly looking for his share of that settlement. He was obviously furious at losing all that money as he ranted on the courthouse steps on Friday that Vance was afraid to prosecute the case. Diallo is reportedly planning to come forward soon and tell her story to the world. The story that Diallo told never made sense to me. According to Diallo, she wasn't supposed to clean a suite while the guest was still in it, but she entered because she thought it was empty. By that logic, she should have left the suite as soon as she heard any noise. But her story is that nude Strauss-Kahn opened the bathroom door, rushed over to her, threw her on the floor and raped her. I'm sorry, I don't buy it, not unless he was drunk or on drugs. Strauss-Kahn has a reputation as a womanizer, but no reputation for violence. Strauss-Kahn says that any sex that occurred was consensual, and that's credible to me -- not because a pretty, young girl would be attracted to an elderly Strauss-Kahn, but because he may well have paid her. So you can blame Strauss-Kahn for stupidity, but the rape claims are not credible to me. They should have lacked credibility to Vance as well. On the one hand, you have a single girl, a mother, who was highly motivated to make money any way she could, and on the other hand you have a world leader about to leave for the airport for a meeting next day in Berlin on saving the euro. And oh, by the way, he decided to beat the shit out of some girl before heading out. Based on the facts that were available at the time, the preponderance of evidence has always been on Strauss-Kahn's side, not on Diallo's. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Will Strauss-Kahn run for president of France next year?" Barring some incriminating revelation, it now appears that the charges against Strauss-Kahn will soon be dropped, probably at his next court appearance on July 18. In France, the question on everyone's lips is: Will he now run for President as the Socialist Party candidate against Nicolas Sarkozy? In order for that to happen, he would have to apply to run in the primary by July 13. Members of the Socialist Party are feeling "intense relief" at the news of his release, and are considering extending the July 13 deadline for him, according to <#stdurl http://www.lemonde.fr/dsk/article/2011/07/01/intense-soulagement-au-ps-apres-la-liberation-de-dsk_1543770_1522571.html "Le Monde"#> (rough translation):
"The surprise release of Dominique Strauss-Kahn, following a brief court hearing ... has provoked many reactions with the Socialist Party to the idea, suggested by some, of an incredible return to politics next year in the presidential election. François Hollande has said he had "no reservations against the idea to postpone the closing date for applications", originally scheduled July 13, after the release on parole of Dominique Strauss-Kahn. If DSK was cleared at the next hearing, July 18, this would allow it "to have the freedom to make a decision" in relation to the primary, said Mr. Holland, in "late July or even late August." Less enthusiastic about changing the calendar, Arnaud Montebourg, himself a candidate for the Socialist primary, believes instead that the terms and timing of the primary "have, as is, no reason to change" . "The release of Dominique Strauss-Kahn on his own recognizance is important news for him, his wife, Anne Sinclair , and his family. [...] The Socialists, for their part, must continue to chart their route to the victory of the left in 2012 to build all of New France."However, most commentators are saying that Strauss-Kahn's political career has been irrevocably damaged, and that the most that he might hope for is to be finance minister in the cabinet of the next Socialist Party president. On the other hand, there's been a lot of sympathy for Strauss-Kahn in France ever since this incident occurred. The French were appalled at the humiliating treatment he was given before he was even given a trial, let alone found guilty. A poll showed most French people thought that the whole thing was a setup, and now that he's been released, that view appears to have been confirmed. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The sad case of Susan Estrich" For feminists, rape isn't about women -- it's about money and power. That was never so apparent as in the sad case of Democratic Party strategist Susan Estrich. In 1988, Estrich became national campaign chairman for Mike Dukakis' presidential bid. A year earlier, she had written a book called "Real Rape," where she described in highly personal terms how she had been raped in 1974. Through the 80s, Estrich devoted her life to being a rape victim advocate, and was devoted to their cause under the claim that no woman would ever lie about being raped. I wrote a lot about gender issues in the 1990s, and read Estrich's book, and frankly found it impressive. I'm not saying that I ever bought into the whole feminist package about rape, but I did wonder if it was more of a problem than I had previously assumed. Then in 1996 along came Paula Jones and her charges of sexual harassment at President Bill Clinton. Estrich became Clinton's principal defender, saying that even if Clinton was a harasser, defending him was the greater good, because Clinton is pro-woman. "You believe in principle. I believe in politics," she was quoted as saying to someone who disagreed with her. (By the way, VP Al Gore was quoted as saying, "Most people are getting sick and tired of women coming out of nowhere and making unsupported sexual charges.") Then along came Juanita Broaddrick, who credibly charged Clinton with having raped her. And who did I see on TV? There was Susan Estrich, the author of the book I had read, saying that maybe Juanita Broaddrick was lying about having been assaulted and raped, and women do indeed lie about being raped. And we really shouldn't take Juanita Broaddrick too seriously. I was ready to throw up. Here was someone, Susan Estrich, whom I liked and whose opinion I relied on, someone who was credible and likable, and who had impressed me with her story. And there she was, literally selling herself out to the Democratic party establishment. Other feminists did exactly the same thing. Later news stories indicated that the National Organization for Women (NOW) was paid off by the Clinton administration to keep quiet about the rape charges. I quite honestly don't see how Susan Estrich can live with herself. She completely sold herself out as a woman and as a rape victim, and she sold out possibly thousands more women who had been raped and looked to her as a role model. We might ask how many additional rapes have occurred because of Estrich's sellout? Apparently only Republicans can be rapists because they're "anti-woman," but Democrats can freely rape anyone they want, because they're "pro-woman," and the greater good is letting their rapes go unpunished. I guess that's why it's fun to be a Democrat. Or maybe Estrich was lying when she said she was raped in 1974. Who knows? Which story makes the most money? Dominique Strauss-Kahn may be a Socialist, but he's obviously not a Democrat, since he was charged with rape. If he were an ordinary Republican without a lot of money, Cyrus Vance would have let him rot in jail forever, even if he knew that Diallo was lying. The only reason that Strauss-Kahn is getting past these charges is because he's wealthy enough (or, more accurately, his wife Anne Sinclair is wealthy enough) to hire high-priced lawyers and investigative teams. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=835 "2-Jul-11 News -- France's politics in turmoil from collapse of Strauss-Kahn rape case"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110702 2-Jul-11 World View -- Hundreds of thousands of Syrians protest =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110702.head 2-Jul-11 World View -- Hundreds of thousands of Syrians protest =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110702.keys Generational Dynamics, Bashar al-Assad, Hillary Clinton, Syria, Libya, National Transitional Council, Hans Hillen, Amanda Foreman, Iran, India, France, Algeria, Greece =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110702.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110702.date 2-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110702.txt1 Netherlands predicts problems if Libyan action not over by September =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110702.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Hundreds of thousands of Syrians protest" <#inc ww2010.pic g110701c.jpg right "" "Demonstrators march through the streets of Damascus on July 1 (RFE/RL)"#> The brutal acts of killing, torture and mutilation of peaceful protesters by Bashar al-Assad's security forces have not stopped more and more protests from occurring, especially after midday prayers on Fridays. On this Friday, possibly the biggest outpouring in over three months of angry protests occurred, as hundreds of thousands took to the streets in towns across Syria to demand an end of Assad's abuses. Two deaths were repored in Damascus, but the number of deaths in other cities could not be ascertained. Syrian activists say that more than 1,300 have been killed since the beginning, and at least 10,000 have been arrested. <#stdurl http://www.rferl.org/content/hundreds_of_thousands_protest_against_assad_in_syria/24253111.html "RFE/RL"#> Speaking at a meeting of the Community of Democracies in the Baltic state of Lithuania, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said:
" It doesn't appear that is coherent and consistent message coming from Syria. We know what they have to do, they must begin a genuine transition to democracy and allowing one meeting of the opposition in Damascus is not sufficient action toward achieving that goal. So I am disheartened by the recent reports of continued violence on the borders and in Aleppo, where demonstrators have been beaten, attacked with knives by government organized groups and security forces. It is absolutely clear, that Syrian Government is running out of time. There isn't any question about that. They are either going to allow a serious political process, that will include peaceful protests take place throughout Syria and engage a productive dialogue with members of the opposition and civil society, or they going continue to see increasingly organized resistance. We regret the loss of life and we regret the violence, but this choice is up to the Syrian Government. Right now we are looking for action, not words and we haven't seen enough of that."<#stdurl http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2011/07/167502.htm "US State Dept."#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey's foreign minister will talk to rebels in Benghazi" <#inc ww2010.pic g110701d.jpg right "" "Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu (Zaman)"#> Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu will go to Benghazi on Saturday to hold talks with Libya's rebel National Transitional Council (NTC), to prepare to protect Turkey's interests in Libyan if, at some point in the future, Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi is overthrown and the humanitarian kinetic military action ends. Davutoglu sees the NTC as “a legal and credible representative” of the Libyan people, but he does not see it as the sole representative. <#stdurl http://www.todayszaman.com/news-249008-davutoglu-to-go-to-benghazi-following-important-meetings.html "Zaman"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Netherlands predicts problems if Libyan action not over by September" The Dutch defence minister Hans Hillen warned NATO allies on Wednesday against "mission creep" in Libya:
"I hope we will be finished by the end of September. If it's not finished by then, I think the debate will get higher and higher -- 'why didn't we finish until now', and 'what is the problem exactly', and 'why does everybody say give us three more weeks, three more months?' And then in November they say, 'well, just a couple of months' -- that's mission creep."<#stdurl http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/06/29/uk-libya-nato-dutch-idUKTRE75S3XP20110629 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "New book on Britain's participation in the American Civil War" <#inc ww2010.pic g110701e.jpg right "" "A World on Fire"#> A World on Fire: An Epic History of Two Nations Divided, by Amanda Foreman, shows how the American Civil War was not just a vicious struggle between the Unionist North and Confederate South but "neutral" Britain too. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/books/8090170/A-World-on-Fire-An-Epic-History-of-Two-Nations-Divided-by-Amanda-Foreman-review.html "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iran threatens to halt crude oil shipments to India" Iran has warned that it will stop shipments of crude oil to India in August, unless Indian refiners pay the $2 billion that they already owe to Iran. However, Traders and industry executives say that Iran won't really stop oil exports to India, because Iran will have difficulty finding another market that doesn't conflict with the West's sanctions. <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304450604576419322484694248.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Relations between France and Algeria strained by Libya" Relations between France and its former colony, Algeria, have been strained for a number of years, although they cooperate in security cooperation related to the growing role of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) in Africa's Sahel. However, the rapprochement on that issue is being overshadowed by friction over the question of Libya and its future. France is demanding that Muammar Gaddafi step down, while Algeria wants to reach a political solution to the stalemate, based on the position taken by the African Union. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38119&tx_ttnews[backPid]=26&cHash=fc1a9b9ed410074645da9cc042c5fe84 "Jamestown"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Audacity of Hope remains docked in Greece, kept from Gaza" Several ships in "Freedom Flotilla II," with plans to break Israel's blockade of Gaza, are being kept from leaving port in Greece by Greek coast guard officials. One ship, the Audacity of Hope, populated by U.S. activists, made a secretive attempt to leave port on Friday, but coast guard officials forced them to return to port. <#stdurl http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2011/07/01/greece-flotilla.html "Canadian Press"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=835 "2-Jul-11 News -- France's politics in turmoil from collapse of Strauss-Kahn rape case"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110701b 1-Jul-11 News -- Thailand's Yingluck promises to use 'femininity' to resolve disputes =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110701b.head 1-Jul-11 News -- Thailand's Yingluck promises to use 'femininity' to resolve disputes =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110701b.keys Generational Dynamics, Thaksinomics, Thailand, Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin Shinawatra =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110701b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110701b.date 1-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110701b.txt1 The Royal Thai Army claims that it is neutral in Sunday's election =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110701b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Thailand's Yingluck promises to use 'femininity' to resolve disputes" Thailand will hold an election on Sunday, and Yingluck Shinawatra, the leader of the Puea Thai ("For Thais") party has been gaining in the polls. The question on everyone's mind in Bangkok these days is this: If Puea Thai decisively wins the election, and Yingluck becomes Prime Minister, will the army stage a coup? <#inc ww2010.pic g110630.jpg center "" "Yingluck Shinawatra, 44, is poised to become Thailand's first female PM (AP)"#> Yingluck is the sister of Thaksin Shinawatra. Thaksin or his allies have won every Thai election in the past decade. Thaksin won landslide victoriess in 2001 and 2005, but was ousted in 2006 by a coup. Each time that an ally became Prime Minister, opposition leaders have found a way to force the winner from office, in one case because he had been the host of a televised cooking show. (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e081203 ""Thailand government collapses, ending crippling riots from class war""#>) It's widely believed that the army hates Thaksin, and the problem appears to be what a <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/30/us-thailand-election-economy-idUSTRE75T0SW20110630 "Reuters"#> analysis describes as "Thaksinomics." Thaksinomics is basically a spending program that pumps billions of dollars into Thailand's rural economy, theoretically to stimulate consumption and create a Keynesian multiplier effect, according to the article. But critics say that it's simply pork-barrel politics, and that its promised results are unproven. Furthermore, the critics point out that household debt as a percentage of income is above 57%, but was below 50% in 2001. There's plenty of racism involved. The "rural economy" refers to mostly to the the dark-skinned indigenous Thai-Thai majority laboring class, for whom Thaksin is a hero, and the spending is opposed by the élite fair-skinned market dominant minority Thai-Chinese class. (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110526b ""26-May-11 News -- Thailand election portends more ethnic clashes""#>) =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The Royal Thai Army claims that it is neutral" The Royal Thai Army is widely believed to be taking sides and trying to discredit Puea Thai. The Commander-in-Chief Prayuth Chan-ocha has occasionally made veiled threats of an army coup if Yingluck wins. However, on Thursday, Thailand's army chief sought to allay fears of a coup d'état, according to <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/30/us-thailand-politics-army-idUSTRE75T2KZ20110630 "Reuters."#> He said that the military's stance on the election was strictly neutral, but that he would protect 83-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej from anyone showing disrepect to him, which is against the law. <#inc ww2010.pic g110630b.jpg right "" "Yingluck plans to use her femininity for national reconciliation"#> According to a <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13723451 "BBC profile,"#> has two degrees in politics - undergraduate from the northern city of Chiang Mai, her family's powerbase, and masters from Kentucky State University in the US. Until now, she has pursued a corporate career, with little experience in politics. But she says she will use her attributes as a woman to promote national reconciliation:
I am ready to fight according to the rules and I ask for the opportunity to prove myself. I ask for your trust as you used to trust my brother. I will utilise my femininity to work fully for our country."I can hardly wait to see how that works out. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=834 "1-Jul-11 News -- Thailand's Yingluck promises to use 'femininity' to resolve disputes"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110701 1-Jul-11 World View -- U.S. and Pakistan in tit-for-tat retaliation =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110701.head 1-Jul-11 World View -- U.S. and Pakistan in tit-for-tat retaliation =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110701.keys Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Predator drone, Coalition Support Fund, Turkey, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Greece assets, left-wing violence, right-wing violence, Berlin, Spam, Libya, France, Venezuela, Hugo Chavez =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110701.loc ww2010.weblog.log1107 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110701.date 1-Jul-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110701.txt1 Greece finds no buyers in 'fire sale' of national assets =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110701.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.S. delays release of funds to Pakistan" <#inc ww2010.pic g110630c.jpg right "" "Predator drone aircraft"#> The U.S. is delaying the release of $500 million in the Coalition Support Fund (CSF) to Pakistan, and is threatening to cut off Pakistan's civil and military aid, apparently in retaliation for the crackdown against the "Central Investigation Agency (CIA)" network. <#stdurl http://tribune.com.pk/story/197867/rough-rough-patch-miffed-us-holds-back-war-on-terror-money/ "Tribune (Pakistan)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pakistan orders U.S. out of base used for drone attacks" Pakistan has order U.S. personnel to vacate Shamsi airbase, in a remote area of Western Pakistan. The airbase has been used for years to launch drone air strikes on militants in Pakistan's tribal areas. The Shamsi air base was closed apparently in retaliation for an American reduction in coalition support funds. <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/30/pakistan-orders-us-out-drone-base "Guardian"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey denies report that Turkey may invade Syria" A Turkey's foreign ministry spokesman on Thursday denied a report appearing in a Kuwaiti newspaper that Turkish officials had told several Western countries that Turkey might launch a military operation in Syria's north to overthrow President Assad's regime. The spokesman said that the allegations "do not represent the truth whatsoever and it was obviously based on false reporting." <#stdurl http://www.todayszaman.com/news-249006-foreign-ministry-denies-report-that-turkish-military-may-invade-syria.html "Zaman"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syrian military steps up attacks near border with Turkey" Villagers in Syria's Idlib province saw helicopters sweeping in, dropping commandoes into the area from ropes Thursday morning. The commandoes opened fire and killed at least two civilians as the military advanced through a series of villages. Tanks and helicopters also bombarded ancient Byzantine ruins in Al Bara. Al Bara is the site of a famous "dead city," a destination for tourists fascinated by fifth-century Byzantine churches, monasteries, and an iconic, fully intact pyramid-shaped burial chamber. <#stdurl http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/06/30/syria.unrest/ "CNN"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel warns Syria's Assad about possible retaliation" A Kuwaiti newspaper reports that Israel has warned Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad that if he will be targeted if he tries to start a war with Israel, to take the glare off his brutal suppression of the uprising in his country. Israel has not commented on the report. <#stdurl http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/145281 "Israel National News"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece finds no buyers in 'fire sale' of national assets" Hoping to raise 50 billion euros, representatives in Greece's government were at Claridge's hotel in Athens to drum up international investors' interest in a "fire sale" of its national assets. Up for sale are 39 airports, 850 ports, railways, motorways, sewage works, a couple of energy companies, banks, defence groups, thousands of acres of land for development, casinos and Greece's national lottery. Investors came and looked, but did not buy, put off by bureaucracy, strong unions, corruption and a lack of transparency. Said one investor, "Even in the good times Greece is not a country that attracts investment. Foreign investors don't want to invest in a country where there is no flexibility in hiring and firing people. You don't want to invest in a country in which you wake up and a new law has been passed which totally undermines and destroys the value of the investment you've just made." <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jun/28/greeces-fire-sale-shunned "Guardian"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Left-wing and right-wing violence escalates in Berlin" The level of violence between far-right and far-left groups in Berlin has been escalating. Last weekend, five different arson attacks were reported against left-wing organizations in Berlin. The wave of arson was apparently motivated by revenge, following several attacks within the past week on far-right politicians on the streets of Berlin, with weapons ranging from water balloons to glass bottles. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,771329,00.html "Spiegel"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Spam hits lowest levels since 2008" <#inc ww2010.pic g110630d.jpg right "" "Spam volume over last 12 months"#> A new report from Symantec says that global spam is at its lowest levels since 2008. However, the report indicates that quantity has been replaced by quality. Known as "whale phishing," each spam attack is usually targeted to a specific individual or small group of individuals that the virus creator has thoroughly investigated. The targeted individual thinks that he knows the sender and clicks on the wrong thing, causing his entire computer network to become infected. <#stdurl http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/spam_hits_lowest_levels_since_2008_did_you_notice.php "Read Write Web"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "France defends dropping arms to Libya's rebels" France was on the defensive on Thursday, after Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused France of violating UN mandates by dropping tons of weapons to Libyan rebels:
"We are awaiting a response. If this is confirmed, it would be a brazen violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1970."That resolution, passed in February, prohibited states from providing any kind of arms to Libya. According to some reports, the drops included anti-tank missiles and light armoured vehicles, but France is denying this. France's ambassador to the United Nations said that the delivery of these arms to rebels was not in breach of resolution 1970 because they were "self-defence weapons" for the civilian populations in rebel-held areas because they were "under threat." <#stdurl http://www.expatica.com/fr/news/french-news/france-defends-arms-to-libyan-rebels_160004.html "Expatica France"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Venezuela's Hugo Chávez says he's had cancer surgery" Appearing on television on Thursday night from Cuba, Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez said that he's had an operation that removed a cancerous growth. He said that the first operation, to cure the pelvic abscess, had revealed the presence of cancer. There was no information on when and where Chavez's message was recorded, nor did he say how long he would remain in Cuba. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j2Gqw0QRddM9iwnW0lrBXZi8JLkA?docId=52d50cecfbd442b4ab57d7ca33f94e31 "Associated Press"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=834 "1-Jul-11 News -- Thailand's Yingluck promises to use 'femininity' to resolve disputes"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110630b 30-Jun-11 News -- Terrorist bombing of Kabul hotel shows power of Haqqani network =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110630b.head 30-Jun-11 News -- Terrorist bombing of Kabul hotel shows power of Haqqani network =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110630b.keys Generational Dynamics, Kabul International Hotel, Haqqani Network, Pashtuns, Hazari, Iraq, Afghanistan, =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110630b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110630b.date 30-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110630b.txt1 Contrasting the Iraq and Afghanistan wars =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110630b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Terrorist bombing of Kabul hotel shows power of Haqqani network" At least sixteen people including eight attackers have been killed while eight others sustained injuries when heavily armed assailants stormed Intercontinental Hotel Kabul, Tuesday night, according to the <#stdurl http://www.wakht.com/en/020188.php "Wakht News Agency (Kabul)."#> The clash between the attackers and the security officials continued for five hours, and left a major part of the hotel damaged. <#inc ww2010.pic g110629.jpg center "" "Smoke and flames from a fire at the Kabul Intercontinental Hotel (AFP)"#> The Taliban claimed responsibility for the highly coordinated attack on the landmark Intercontinental Hotel in an apparent attempt to show they are still able to carry out such assaults - despite months of heavy attacks by NATO and Afghan forces, according to the article. Afghanistan's Interior Ministry spokesman said that the attackers were from the Haqqani network, and came into Afghanistan from Pakistan, according to <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/06/29/afghanistan.kabul.attack/ "CNN."#> Ironically, at the time of the attack, the hotel contained senior afghan officials discussing plans for the security handover from the American-led coalition to the Afghans, and plans go ahead for an American withdrawal. Many people are questioning whether a security handover is possible. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Contrasting the Iraq and Afghanistan wars" I've been writing about the Afghan war for years, and the best way to understand what's going on is to contrast the Afghan war to the Iraq war:
"What worries us is not who is giving what, but simply that weapons are being distributed by all parties and to all parties. We already have proof that these weapons are in the hands of al-Qaeda, of traffickers. These weapons will contribute to the destabilisation of African states."<#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/06/2011629234644934286.html "Al-Jazeera"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=833 "30-Jun-11 News -- Terrorist bombing of Kabul hotel shows power of Haqqani network"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110629b 29-Jun-11 News -- China promises EU bailout, as officials discuss the 'French Model' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110629b.head 29-Jun-11 News -- China promises EU bailout, as officials discuss the 'French Model' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110629b.keys Generational Dynamics, China, bailout, Greece, EU, French Model, Brady Bonds =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110629b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110629b.date 29-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110629b.txt1 The austerity debate in the United States =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110629b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China promises EU bailout, as officials discuss the 'French Model'" There were two key proposals made on Tuesday, as the Greece debt crisis worsens every day, and EU officials remain paralyzed. <#inc ww2010.pic g110628.jpg center "" "Wen Jiabao and Angela Merkel on Tuesday (Xinhua)"#> During a 5-day tour of Europe, China's Premier Wen Jiaboa met with Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel in order to "boost the growth potential of bilateral trade ... and to once again double our bilateral trade volume in five years," according to <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/28/us-germany-china-trade-idUSTRE75R38Q20110628 "Reuters."#> Wen added,
"China has expressed support for Europe at various times. In other words, when Europe is in difficulty we will extend a helping hand from afar. We will according to need definitely purchase certain amounts of sovereign debt"He added that the problems of Greece and other euro countries are only of a "temporary nature." This is the same kind of pattern that the United States, as a creditor nation, followed in 1931, in bailing out Germany, a debtor nation. However, it did not prevent the collapse of Austria's Credit-Anstalt bank and Germany's Danatbank in 1931, which brought about massive unemployment, and social tension that gave rise to Communism and Naziism. This is all described in the 1932 book, <#hreftext ww2010.i.garrett071009 ""The bubble that broke the world.""#> The Europeans, or at least the elder Europeans, are acutely aware of these 1931 bank failures and their consequences, which is why they're so much more panicked about what's going on than Americans are, and why they're so desperate for a solution. And that's why the Europeans are in a state of total paralysis. They agreed to the huge bailout package in May of last year, but they've done nothing but talk since then, even as it's become apparent that they're headed off a cliff and can't stop. Greece's immediate crisis deadline is coming very soon, according to <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/27/us-eurozone-greece-contingency-idUSTRE75Q3L620110627 "Reuters."#> It has to roll over 2.4 billion euros of 6-month treasury bills on July 15 and 2.0 billion euros of 3-month bills a week later. In August, it has 5.9 billion euros of 5-year bonds maturing and must roll over 2.5 billion of bills. And things get much worse in 2012. Over the next couple of years, Greece will need something like 200 billion euros in loans. If anybody actually believed that a bailout of Greece would work, then they'd probably do it happily. It was obvious at the time of last year's bailout that it wouldn't work, but the politicians prayed for the famous, elusive "V-shaped recovery," and those prayers convinced enough people. But today, there's really almost no one left who believes in that fairy tale. Furthermore, as we <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110628b "described yesterday,"#> the German people are turning firmly against any more bailouts of Greece. <#inc ww2010.pic g110628e.jpg right "" "By 'French Model,' we're not referring to Carla Bruni"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Europeans discuss 'The French Model'" The European discussions of the past few months in Europe have been to find a gimmick that would meet these conditions:
"As reported by European newspapers this morning, French banks had offered to reinvest 70% of their Greek sovereign debt holding maturating 2011-2014. The rest would expire. Of the 70%, 50pp would be rolled over into a 30-year bond, and the remaining 20pp would go into a zero-coupon AAA rated bond, possibly issued or guaranteed by the EFSF. The interest would be withheld and reinvested into a guarantee fund. Furthermore, banks could place the new 30-year bonds into a new Special Purpose Vehicle, thus removing Greek debts from their balance sheets. The French proposal is by far the most constructive step yet taken towards the resolution of the eurozone, but the talks are still in a preliminary phase. Many uncertainties prevail. For example, it is not clear yet whether the EFSF’s explicit mandate needs to be extended (though the scheme circumvents the need for secondary market purchases). Nor is clear how the rating agencies will react to such a scheme, as it constitutes an incentivised rollover. The German banking association and the German finance ministry expressed an interest in what is already being dubbed as the French model. Deutsche Bank seemed unconvinced, Reuters reports. The discussions were held in Rome at the level of the EFC, hosted by Vittorio Grilli."As Marx might say, this proposal contains the seeds of its own destruction. If the AAA bonds are ring-fenced in a "Special Purpose Vehicle," then the banks aren't guaranteeing them, and the only guarantees are those provided by the European taxpayer. And if the French banks were coerced into agreeing to this deal (which anyone in his right mind thinks they were), then the agreement wasn't voluntary, and the ratings agencies will declare a "credit event" default anyway. They've already made that clear in statements during the last few weeks. For more details about the proposal, see this summary by <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/28/us-greece-banks-options-idUSTRE75R4MN20110628 "Reuters."#> Paralyzed euro officials have avoided making any hard decisions for months, and the crisis has gotten steadily worse. The French Model proposal is so nutty, it can only be described as an act of near desperation. During the next couple of days, Greece's parliament will vote on the package of austerity measures imposed by the EU in return for enough of a bailout to pay off Greece's bills through August. What will happen if Greece's parliament votes down the austerity measures? My guess is that the desperate Europeans will provide a bailout anyway, to "kick the can down the road." This will infuriate the German people in a way that can't be predicted. There's really very little time left. The French Model is not a solution, nor does any solution exist. Europeans will attempt further desperation can-kicking maneuvers, but the people, especially the German people, are impatient. It's quite possible that something major will happen this summer. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The austerity debate in the United States" Exactly the same kind of situation is happening in the United States. Washington politicians are in a similar state of paralysis as the Europeans. One would have thought that a compromise over raising the debt limit would have been found months ago, but the politicians are kicking the can down the road, and debating all kinds of proposals on television. According to the news stories, August 2 is either a hard deadline, or not a hard deadline. According to one <#stdurl http://blogs.reuters.com/columns/2011/06/28/default-not-an-option-under-u-s-constitution/ "Reuters columnist,"#> there's a clause in the Constitution that would permit President Obama to ignore the debt limit, and just go on borrowing money. The U.S. is on the same path as Europe, though probably a year or so behind. Still, more and more people every day are coming to realize that America's debts cannot be repaid, any more than Greece's can, and that a default at some point cannot be avoided. China has been bailing out the United States by purchasing hundreds of billions of dollars of U.S. Treasuries, and is now saying that they might also bail out the Europeans. This is a fascinating and incredible echo of what happened in the early 1930s, and unfortunately will probably have an equally disastrous ending. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=832 "29-Jun-11 News -- China promises EU bailout, as officials discuss the 'French Model'"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110629 29-Jun-11 World View -- Iran fires test missiles able to reach Israel =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110629.head 29-Jun-11 World View -- Iran fires test missiles able to reach Israel =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110629.keys Generational Dynamics, Iran, IRGC, Free Gaza Movement, Dennis Kucinich, Syria, South China Sea, China, Zong Qinghou, Tajikistan, Abdujabbor Rahmonov, Billy the Kid, William Koch =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110629.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110629.date 29-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110629.txt1 Gaza Freedom Flotilla II may be delayed until next week =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110629.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iran fires test missiles able to reach US and Israeli targets" <#inc ww2010.pic g110628c.jpg right "" "Iranian revolutionary Guards personnel watch a missile launch on Tuesday. (Payvand)"#> Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps first 14 domestically manufactured missiles on Tuesday during the second day of the first stage of Great Prophet 6 war game. The commander said that longer range missiles are not likely to be build because all of Iran's desired targets are already in reach with its current missiles. "The range of our missiles has been designed based on American bases in the region as well as the Zionist regime." <#stdurl http://www.payvand.com/news/11/jun/1274.html "Payvand"#> and <#stdurl http://www.csmonitor.com/World/terrorism-security/2011/0628/Iran-test-fires-14-missiles-capable-of-reaching-Israeli-US-targets "CS Monitor"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Gaza Freedom Flotilla II may be delayed until next week" According to a leader of the Free Gaza Movement, "There have been many obstacles and complaints. Some boats are not ready and it is not clear when we will sail, although we expect it will be in the coming week. We cannot rule out the possibility that it will be pushed off until the beginning of next week." One of the 10 flotilla ships was sabotaged by cutting the propeller shaft. "Insurance has been withdrawn, one of the ships was sabotaged and Greek authorities have not given all of the permits." He blames the problems, including the sabotage, on the Israelis. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=227011 "Jerusalem Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Kucinich claims remarks about Syria's Assad were mis-translated" Rep. Dennis Kucinich, on a "fact-finding mission" to Syria and Lebanon this week, was quoted by the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) as saying, "President al-Assad is highly loved and appreciated by the Syrians. President Bashar al-Assad cares so much about what is taking place in Syria, which is evident in his effort towards a new Syria and everybody who meets him can be certain of this." Kucinich claims that the quote may have come from a mistranslation of what he actually said. "Given the stakes for Syria and the region, I will consider the article only an error, not a willful intent to mischaracterize my statements or my efforts in the region." <#stdurl http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/168901-kucinich-has-language-problem-in-syria- "The Hill"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Think tank fears war over South China Sea" <#inc ww2010.pic g110628d.jpg right "" "From report, locations of major maritime incidents"#> Growing frictions among nations bordering the South China Sea, exacerbated by the increasing assertiveness of the Chinese military, could lead to armed confrontation and even war, a leading Australian foreign policy think tank warned yesterday. According to the report, "The sea lanes are becoming more crowded, contested and vulnerable to armed strife. Naval and air forces are being strengthened amid shifting balances of economic strategic weight. As the number and tempo of incidents increases, so does the likelihood that an episode will escalate to armed confrontation, diplomatic crisis or possibly even conflict." <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/think-tank-fears-war-over-south-china-sea-2304025.html "Independent"#> and <#stdurl http://www.lowyinstitute.org/PublicationPop.asp?pid=1618 "Lowy Institute"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Is China a communist or capitalist nation?" Zong Qinghou is the richest man in China, with $12 billion in assets. He works 14-hour days, smoking and drinking tea are his only luxuries, and he spends no more than $20 a day. Does Zong, a member of the Communist Party, see himself as more of a communist or a capitalist? His response:
"If there is anyplace in the world where socialism prevails, it's Europe. Europe, with its high taxes and welfare states, is a dead end. People in Europe should work harder."<#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,770696,00.html "Spiegel"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Bill banning children from mosques adopted in Tajikistan" The parliament of Tajikistan is approving a controversial parental responsibility bill, which has been heavily criticized by local religious communities. The new legislation has generated controversy by explicitly barring children under the age of 18 from “participating in the activities of religious organizations,” which include mosques and other places of worship. Local analysts believe that the ban is aimed at preventing Tajik children from becoming radicalized. Presenting the bill in the parliament, Tajik Education Minister Abdujabbor Rahmonov, said: “The draft law allows children that study in religious schools to attend mosques and join religious associations. However, children studying in secular schools are prohibited from doing so before they reach the age of 18.” He also said that children will still be allowed to participate in funerals and attend mosques during official religious holidays. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38104&tx_ttnews[backPid]=27&cHash=829468526dfa6cfc0e164fd49d57e694 "Jamestown"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia still in denial about Circassian genocide as Sochi Olympics approaches" It was almost a year ago that I was the first major American blogger to write about the gathering crisis over the fact that Sochi was the site of an 1864 Russian genocide of the Circassian ethnic group in Russia's North Caucasus. (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e101030 ""30-Oct-10 News -- Caucasus terrorism / politics becomes embroiled in 2014 Olympics""#>) Since then, the genocide issue has been getting increasing attention, and is uniting the 8.5 million Circassians in the world, of whom only about 10 percent (900,000 people) live in Russia, mostly in the North Caucasus. An estimated seven million Circassians live in Turkey, 200,000 in Syria, 130,000 in Jordan, 150,000 in EU countries, 40,000 in Iraq, 30,000 in Libya and about 30,000 in North America. However, Russian officials are avoiding dealing with the problem, and the threat to the 2014 Olympics in Sochi. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38100&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=3dd67504c9f1a2857a2ba3904da06167 "Jamestown"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Rare Billy the Kid photo sold for $2.3 million" <#inc ww2010.pic g110628b.jpg right "" "Billy the Kid tintype"#> The only authenticated photograph of infamous Wild West gunslinger Billy the Kid was auctioned off for $2.3 million on Saturday night. The metallic tintype image had been expected fetch only $400,000. Born Henry McCarty, but known in New Mexico as William Bonney, the Kid was shot dead at age 22 by lawman Pat Garrett in 1881, months after a jailbreak in which Bonney reportedly killed two deputies. The winning bid was from Florida billionaire William Koch one of the sons of Fred C. Koch, founder of Wichita, Kansas-based energy conglomerate Koch Industries. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/26/us-auction-billykid-photo-idUSTRE75O1HX20110626 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "NY Times: A secretive banking elite rules derivatives" I've never believed in almost any conspiracy theories, but a <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2&p=9081#p9081 "forum"#> member called my attention to this one that may be the real thing. According to the NY Times article, a secret cartel of nine NY banks meets every month to prevent other banks from entering the derivatives industry and to influence legislation. The reason that this story is credible is that bankers are increasingly one of the most hated group in the country (the same thing happened in the 1930s), and the bankers themselves are developing a bunker mentality. The same kind of thing might be seen, for example, in Mexican drug cartels. The bank cartel probably won't last long, and bankers will continue to be hated more and more. <#stdurl http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/12/business/12advantage.html "NY Times"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=832 "29-Jun-11 News -- China promises EU bailout, as officials discuss the 'French Model'"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110628b 28-Jun-11 News -- German support for bailout of Greece falls sharply =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110628b.head 28-Jun-11 News -- German support for bailout of Greece falls sharply =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110628b.keys Generational Dynamics, Greece, bailout, austerity, IMF, EU, Peer Steinbrueck, Jose Manuel Barroso =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110628b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110628b.date 28-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110628b.txt1 The people versus their political representatives =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110628b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "German support for bailout of Greece falls sharply" The analysts are holding their breath, waiting for Greece's Parliament to vote on more austerity measures later this week. The austerity measures include higher taxes, lower benefits, sales of assets, and privatizations of public companies. According to one analyst I heard today, the package of new austerity measures will cost each Greek citizen $2,795 euros per year, equivalent to one month's income for a family. These austerity measures are demanded by the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as a condition for new bailout money to Greece to avoid bankruptcy as early as July 15. <#inc ww2010.pic g110627.jpg center "" "Anti-austerity protester in Athens (AFP)"#> Nonetheless, a new poll indicates that most Greeks would rather accept the harsh terms of the austerity package, rather than see their country go bankrupt, according to <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5inpGniCtRtqrW9eP0TGjaU0UnrPg?docId=CNG.c92f962cd2eadb85ecab8f1c1e49cd4b.2e1 "AFP."#> 57% of those polled said the country should accept the deal, while only 22.7% said it should be rejected, "even at the cost of bankruptcy." But while the Greek people may be willing to accept the deal as the lesser of two evils, a poll of the German people says that they're becoming turning strongly against giving Greece another bailout, even if not doing so means the end of the euro. This situation is leading to a major confrontation between the German people and their political representatives, according to an article in the center-right <#stdurl http://www.faz.net/artikel/S30638/schulden-krise-euro-skeptiker-deutschland-einig-wutbuergerland-30448144.html "Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung."#> Rough translation:
"The common man is afraid. For almost an hour, the politician had to listen to speakers on the stage ask, "Why do we have to save Greece?" Because the EU means peace, he says. Because Germany has nine neighbors. Because we should not hold our noses too high. Then war was threatened. Now the audience was asking questions. The man in the beige pleated suit, himself a war child, stood at the microphone and talked about fear. Not fear of tanks. He fears that billions that the German education system will soon lose. "Why do I have the impression that the rescue of foreign countries is always more important than the rescue of our own country?" It was very quiet in the hall, and on stage the politician, former Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck, was struggling to maintain his composure. "Germany is dependent on Europe," he finally says, sounding really embarrassed for the first time that night. "I hope I've made that clear." But he had not. Germany's most popular politican can try to explain the billions of aid to Greece, that neither the opposition politicians nor the unpopular Chancellor Merkel are challenging. But the Germans are not convinced of the necessity of the euro rescue. Not the Social Democrat voters who complain about "these astronomical sums" and ask, where will this money come from? Not the European Union supporters elsewhere in the republic. The government in Berlin favors a rescue package for Greece, but in the countryside, the mood has turned. ... The crisis is becoming a crucial test between the people and their representatives. The Germans simply will no longer put up with it. The head explodes thinking about the billions that were distributed in a big surprise to bankrupt banks. Then the amount increased again in a breath, as the Euro-summit hunted for the next [bailout], while television pictures showed Greece in a political state of emergency. The people are less and less civil in accepting this contradiction."According to the article, Germans oppose further aid to Greece by 60% to 33%, even though 80% of Germans believe that "the financial difficulties of some EU countries [are] a threat to the stability of the euro." =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The people versus their political representatives" The big gap in views between the people and their representatives mirrors the gap between World War II survivors and their children, as I've reported many times. (See my 2005 article. <#hreftext ww2010.i.eu050601 ""France rejects EU Constitution.""#>) The WW II survivors, traumatized for life by the bloody violence of the war, formed the European Union with the specific objective of preventing a new war. However, younger people, with no personal experience of the war, are more concerned about their own incomes than in preventing a new war. My guess is that if Greece's parliament votes down the austerity measures later this week, then the German people will be even more firmly opposed to a bailout of Greece. In fact, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and other senior EU officials have repeatedly said that "there is no Plan B for Greece," and that the austerity plan MUST pass. However, as we've reported many times in the past few months, a European official apparently cannot open his mouth without blatantly lying, and this statement is no exception, according to sources speaking to <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/27/us-eurozone-greece-contingency-idUSTRE75Q3L620110627 "Reuters."#> Unnamed euro zone officials are saying that there is a contingency plan to provide Greece with bailout money, even if the Greek parliament fails to vote in favor of the austerity measures. And why should the Greek parliament vote for the austerity measures, if Greece is going to be bailed out anyway? And it's fascinating that exactly the same kind of austerity debate, with the same kinds of arguments on both sides, is taking place in Washington, framed as a question of whether to raise the debt limit. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=831 "28-Jun-11 News -- German support for bailout of Greece falls sharply"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110628 28-Jun-11 World View -- Genocide charges against Gaddafi =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110628.head 28-Jun-11 World View -- Genocide charges against Gaddafi =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110628.keys Generational Dynamics, International Criminal Court, Muammar Gaddafi, Libya, Ahmet Davutoglu, Israel, flotilla, Egypt, IMF, World Bank, Fazal Saeed Haqqani, Taliban, TTP, TTI, Jalaluddin Haqqani, Haqqani network, video games =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110628.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110628.date 28-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110628.txt1 New book reveals secret meanings of neo-Nazi codes =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110628.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Chances of diplomatic resolution to Libya war now nonexistent" <#inc ww2010.pic g110627b.jpg right "" "Muammar Gaddafi on May 11 (AP)"#> On Monday, the International Criminal Court in The Hague issued arrest warrants on charges of genocide and crimes against humanity for the country’s leader, Muammar Qaddafi, his son Saif Qaddafi, and his intelligence chief. It had previously been hoped (by some) unrealistically that a diplomatic resolution of the humanitarian Libyan kinetic military action could be reached, where Gaddafi would take up residence in Saudi Arabia or some other country. But with arrest warrants pending against him. that option is removed. Gaddafi will now have to fight to victory, or fight to the death. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-27/qaddafi-charges-raise-stakes-for-u-s-leadership-on-libya-view.html "Bloomberg"#> Gaddafi is 'seriously considering' fleeing Tripoli for a more secure location outside the capital, according to U.S. officials. <#stdurl http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/06/24/qaddafi-seriously-considering-fleeing-tripoli-us-officials-say/ "Fox News"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey's foreign minister plans Mideast tour" Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is preparing for a tour of Middle Eastern countries including Syria, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iran. The two major objectives of the tour are to improve relations with Syria, and to aid Palestinian reconciliation and the formation of a unity government. <#stdurl http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=fm-to-embark-on-mideast-tour-2011-06-27 "Hurriyet (Ankara)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel drops its threat to ban flotilla journalists" Israel's government on Monday dropped a threat to issue 10-year bans on journalists aboard a Gaza-bound flotilla attempting to break Israel's naval blockade. <#stdurl http://arabnews.com/middleeast/article462796.ece "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "New book reveals secret meanings of neo-Nazi codes" Openly Nazi symbols such as the swastika are banned in Germany, but neo-Nazis get around the law by using numeric codes. For example, if a sports figure wears shirt number 88, then it's possible that the "88" stands for "Heil Hitler." <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,770820,00.html#ref=nlint "Spiegel"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Egypt risks undermining economy by rejecting IMF loan" Egypt's decision to reject low-interest loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank is politically popular, but it risks much higher poverty and unemployment. <#stdurl http://www.themedialine.org/news/news_detail.asp?NewsID=32536 "Media Line"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Taliban warlord changes militan allegiance" Fazal Saeed Haqqani, a senior Taliban commander, has decided to leave Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP), or Taliban Movement of Pakistan, because TTP is responsible for "brutal" attacks on Pakistani civilians, in violation, he says, of the Koran. Instead, he and his 500 fighters are forming a new group, Tehrik-e-Taliban Islami (TTI). This new Taliban group will target Americans in Afghanistan. Saeed Haqqani is thought to have close ties to the Haqqani network, headed by Jalaluddin Haqqani, one of the fiercest Afghan insurgent groups battling U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/27/us-pakistan-militants-idUSTRE75Q2XT20110627 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Supreme Court strikes down law restricting violent video games" When I was about ten years old, I read a newspaper article that said that some politicians wanted to ban "violent" comic books, including my favorite Superman, because reading them turns children into violent criminals, as if even a young child couldn't tell the difference between a comic book and real life. That was the first time I really began to realize that politicians are idiots. After that it was rock 'n' roll that was evil, then 1970s TV crime shows like Kojak, then porn, then video games. A few years ago, it was the TV show '24'. On Monday, the Supreme Court struck down a law restricting sales of violent video games to children. Still some "experts" claim that video games are dangerous. <#stdurl http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/06/27/scotus.video.games/index.html "CNN"#> and <#stdurl http://blogs.wsj.com/health/2011/06/27/video-game-violence-what-the-science-shows/ "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Women can identify a homosexual man by looking at his photo" When a woman is ovulating, she's instinctively able to identify gay men by looking at their faces in photos. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/8593989/Women-really-have-gaydar-say-scientists.html "Telegraph"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=831 "28-Jun-11 News -- German support for bailout of Greece falls sharply"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110627 27-Jun-11 World View -- Burn-scarred Yemen president to make TV appearance =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110627.head 27-Jun-11 World View -- Burn-scarred Yemen president to make TV appearance =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110627.keys Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Al-Riyada, Israel, Gaza, flotilla, Syria, Lebanon, Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbollah, Greece, Theodor Pangalos, Ireland, Michael Noonan, Cambodia, Killing fields =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110627.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110627.date 27-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110627.txt1 Israel's Navy prepares for confrontation with 'Freedom Flotilla II' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110627.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Burn-scarred Yemen president to make TV appearance" <#inc ww2010.pic g110626b.jpg right "" "Anti-government protesters demanding resignation of Saleh (AP)"#> Yemen officials are saying that badly scarred president Ali Abdullah Saleh will make a televised appearance this week, as he negotiates his return from the Saudi Arabian hospital where he's been confined since he was injured in a bomb attack while he was praying in a mosque in his palace complex in Sanaa. According to an official statement, "The president will appear within the next 48 hours despite our fear that the burns on his features and on different parts of his body will be an obstacle, given that his appearance will not be as the media expects it." <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/yemen/8599557/Yemens-Ali-Abdullah-Saleh-to-make-TV-appearance.html "Telegraph"#> Anti-government protests have continued on a daily basis since Saleh's hospitalization. On Sunday, tens of thousands of Yemenis rallied in the Sanaa and other cities to demand that Saleh step down, and that his family leave the country. It'll be interesting to see how they react to Saleh's planned television appearance. In the meantime, fighting continues between Yemen's army and al-Qaeda linked militants in southern Yemen. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Tens-of-Thousands-of-Yemenis-Call-for-Salehs-Sons-to-Leave-Yemen-124568214.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood continues to splinter" Several factions of the Muslim Brotherhood have broken off to form new parties to rival the Brotherhood's main Freedom and Justice Party. The latest is al-Riyada, Arabic for The Pioneers, a "reformist" party opposed to the Brotherhood's hard lines on viewing Islamic Sharia law as the basis of society. A youth movement within the Brotherhood plans to formalize its own independent political party, according to a youth leader. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iszzz8SGS3OzqhWJ0jARiyUSukpw?docId=73f6e6f13c9c4d6db88074e2ee2e4eed "AP"#> and <#stdurl http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2011/06/24/Youths-spin-off-from-Muslim-Brotherhood/UPI-65441308926141/ "UPI"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel's Navy prepares for confrontation with 'Freedom Flotilla II'" Israel's Navy is making plans to block Freedom Flotilla II from breaching Israel's blockade of Gaza, with the expectation in doing so that there won't be a repeat of the violence that led to the deaths of nine activists, mostly Turkish. Turkey will not participate this year, but vessels from the U.S., France, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Canada are participating. Participants will be arrested, and sent back to their country of origin, and a 10-year travel ban to Israel will be applied to them. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=226655 "Jerusalem Post"#> The Foreign Press Association is accusing Israel of trying to intimidate Gaza flotilla journalists, with the threat of the 10-year travel ban. It says that the threat raises serious questions about Israel's commitment to freedom of the press, and, "Journalists covering a legitimate news event should be allowed to do their jobs without threats and intimidation. We urge the government to reverse its decision immediately." <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/26/israel-accused-gaza-flotilla-journalists "Guardian"#> An official UN Secretary-General's report on last year's flotilla to Gaza concludes that Israel's naval blockade of Gaza is in keeping with international law, and therefore its actions to stop the flotilla were also legal, although they used disproportionate force that led to the deaths of nine Turkish citizens. The report is due to be released within two weeks. The draft report, which has been seen by Israel and Turkey, criticizes the Turkish government and highlights the relationship between it and IHH, the activist group that organized the flotilla. Turkey is asking Israel to agree to "tone down" the criticisms of Turkey in the report, in return for ending the crisis in relations between the two countries. <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/israeli-official-turkey-wants-un-to-tone-down-report-on-gaza-flotilla-raid-1.369614 "Haaretz"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Embassies in Syria and Lebanon prepare for evacuation" American and European embassies in Syria and Lebanon are making preparations for quick evacuations, in case Syria's government falls, and is replaced by a new government that's hostile to the West, or that reacts as the Iranians did after the Shah fell in 1979. <#stdurl http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2011/Jun-27/EU-states-urge-embassy-readiness-in-case-of-evacuation-report.ashx "Daily Star (Lebanon)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Nasrallah accuses the CIA of infiltrating Hizbollah" Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said that the militant Islamic group has uncovered three spies within its ranks, two of whom were recruited by the CIA. The U.S. embassy in Beirut dismissed the report as "empty accusations." <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/06/24/lebanon.hezbollah.spies/ "CNN"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece: Officials say austerity vote may fail" Greece's deputy prime minister Theodor Pangalos says that the vote to pass specific required austerity measures may fail. These austerity measures are required by the EU and IMF (unless they cave in) for Greece to receive the next tranche of last year's bailout. Without this money, Greece will default on July 15, when it can no longer make its debt payments. This is the first of several consecutive major crisis weeks for Greece and the EU. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13921292 "BBC"#> Talk of a Greek default in the near future is becoming widespread. Irish Finance Minister Michael Noonan is seeking to distance Ireland from Greece, for fear that a default in Greece would contaminate Ireland. <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304447804576409620313655208.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Hearings begin on 1970s 'Killing Fields' Cambodian genocide" The Khmer Rouge, led by Pol Pot, was responsible for the deaths of millions of Cambodians in 1975-79. A UN-backed tribunal in Cambodia is holding its first hearing in the trial of four former top Khmer Rouge leaders. The charges include genocide and crimes against humanity. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13922564 "BBC"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=830 "27-Jun-11 World View -- Burn-scarred Yemen president to make TV appearance"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110626b 26-Jun-11 News -- S. Korea thanks America over Korean War, and warns N. Korea =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110626b.head 26-Jun-11 News -- S. Korea thanks America over Korean War, and warns N. Korea =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110626b.keys Generational Dynamics, Korea, Korean War, Lee Myung-bak, Cheonan, Yeonpyeong Island, famine =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110626b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110626b.date 26-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110626b.txt1 China will not support a new North Korean military provocation =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110626b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "S. Korea thanks America over Korean War, and warns N. Korea" Commemorating the beginning of the Korean War on June 25, 1950, South Korean president Lee Myung-bak saluted hundreds of Korean War veterans from home and abroad and said, "I deeply bow my head and experss my respect to you who devoted your hearts and bodies to the country by putting studying behind and picking up guns despite your young age," according to the <#stdurl http://www.koreaherald.com/national/Detail.jsp?newsMLId=20110624000694 "Korea Herald."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110625.jpg center "" "South Korean Prime Minister Kim Hwang-sik speaks on Korea War Memorial Museum in Seoul on Saturday (AP)"#> The commemorations come after a year in which North Korea launched two separate deadly military attacks on South Korea -- the torpedo sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan on March 26, and the November 23 artillery attack on Yeonpyeong Island, killing four South Koreans. The South Koreans never retaliated for the two attacks, though they infuriated the South Korean people, and raised nationalistic sentiment. One reason for the South's hesitation is the strong support that the North Koreans received from their long-time ally, China. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China will not support a new North Korean military provocation" But China has reportedly said that it will no long stand by North Korea if there's another attack, according to <#stdurl http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/international/news/20110624p2g00m0in075000c.html "Mainichi (Japan)."#> On Thursday, President Lee Myung Bak reported told a group of lawmakers that China has officially notified the South Korean government that "it won't stand by the North if it makes an additional provocation." It remains to be seen whether China holds to that promise, if another military attack occurs. North Korea has suffered food shortages for many years, but they're worse than ever this year, according to the <#stdurl http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jun/24/silent-spring-in-north-korea/ "Washington Times."#> World Food Program (WFP) analysts are warning that North Korea could face its worst food crisis since the famine of the 1990s that claimed more than 1 million lives, because severe weather and floods greatly impacted the 2010 fall harvest, leaving no food supplies for months until the summer harvest. Western food aid to North Korea has been cut off in 2009 because of their nuclear weapons program. On Saturday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was quoted by <#stdurl http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2011/06/113_89594.html "Korea Times"#> as saying,
"We have made no decision about providing food aid to North Korea at this time. Any such decision must be based on legitimate humanitarian needs, competing needs elsewhere around the world and our ability to ensure and monitor that whatever food aid is provided actually reaches the people who are in need," she added. "Therefore, North Korea must address our serious concerns about monitoring and outstanding issues related to North Korea's suspension of previous food aid programs before we can consider any decision.The lack of food is causing mass starvation, malnutrition, and even cannibalism, according to <#stdurl http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/korea/articles/20110625.aspx "Strategy Page."#> The result is an increasing number of angry anti-government protests, something that was unheard of in earlier years. The "Jasmine Revolutions" in the Arab world are causing concern and possibly panic in the North Korea's government. North Korea has imported large amounts of tear gas, shields, and helmets from China, apparently with the aim to suppress any uprisings, according to <#stdurl http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/06/22/2011062200492.html "Chosun."#> Late last year, the North launched special riot control force in preparation for massive demonstrations. The units have reportedly developed new riot control methods for public places like railway stations, markets, schools, and parks. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the South Korean government is in a deep state of denial with respect to the possibility of reunification of North and South Korea, which have been separated since they were partitioned after World War II. On Tuesday, South Korean president Lee said that unification could happen at any time, and could come unexpectedly sooner rather than later, according to <#stdurl http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2011/06/24/87/0401000000AEN20110624009900320F.HTML "Yonhap."#> He said inter-Korean unification would come like "a thief in the middle of the night," and that Seoul needs to prepare for such an eventuality. This is completely unrealistic. This view comes from the reunification of German in 1989, which DID come suddenly and unexpectedly, after the Berlin Wall fell. But there's a huge difference between the two situations: Germany was in a generational Unraveling era at that time, and a serious reunification war was impossible; Korea is in a generational Crisis era today, and reunification WITHOUT a serious war is almost impossible. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=828 "26-Jun-11 News -- S. Korea thanks America over Korean War, and warns N. Korea"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110626 26-Jun-11 World View -- Turkey and Syria edge closer to war as border tension increases =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110626.head 26-Jun-11 World View -- Turkey and Syria edge closer to war as border tension increases =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110626.keys Generational Dynamics, Syria, Turkey, Lebanon, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Apaydin, Hizbollah, Israel, Egypt, IMF, al-Qaeda, China, Catholic Church, Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, France, wine, climate change =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110626.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110626.date 26-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110626.txt1 China's Catholic Church will ordain bishops without Vatican approval =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110626.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey and Syria edge closer to war as border tension increases" <#inc ww2010.pic g110625b.jpg right "" "A Syrian boy poses for the camera in front of a tent city in Turkey. (Zaman)"#> A week ago, Turkish officials gave Syria one week to start reforms and stop the violent suppression of protests, which is estimated to have killed more than 1,400 people in less than four months. Now Syrian military units are massing near Turkey's border, apparently as a warning to Turkey not to attempt to establish a buffer zone inside Syria. <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/25/syria-border-turkey-president-assad "Guardian"#> The situation between Syria and Turkey is explosive and could slide into a violent confrontation, a highly-placed Turkish source said on Saturday. Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is exploring possible scenarios involving Syrian military operations on Turkish territory. The concern is that the Syrians would try to hit refugee camps in Turkey that have already taken in 12,000 Syrian civilians. Citing Iranian sources, the Lebanese Al-Akhbar newspaper reported yesterday that Iran had warned Turkey not to allow NATO forces to use Turkish territory to attack Syria, saying if Turkish territory was permitted, Iran would attack American and NATO basis in Turkey. <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/turkey-concerned-syria-border-tension-could-escalate-into-violent-clashes-1.369615 "Haaretz"#> Fearing "a massive influx of refugees" from Syrian, Turkey is building a giant tent city on the Syrian border. The tent city at Apaydin will be the largest of Turkey's refugee camps, with a capacity to accommodate up to 15,000 people. the camp will offer toilets, showers, cinemas, playgrounds for children, a small mosque, a field hospital, recreation areas, and even a wedding hall. The head of the Turkish Red Crescent has said that his agency is in theory able to sustain up to 250,000 people. <#stdurl http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2011\06\25\story_25-6-2011_pg4_1 "Daily Times (Pakistan)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Hundreds of Syrians are fleeing into Lebanon" A French newspaper is reporting that Hezbollah is using trucks to move hundreds of long-range Iranian-produced missiles from Syria to bases in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, for fear that Syria's Assad regime may collapse, and the new Syrian government will cut off ties with Hezbollah. Hezbollah is using sophisticated means of camouflage to thwart possible Israeli attempts to bomb the truck convoys. <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/report-hezbollah-moves-missiles-from-syria-to-lebanon-fearing-fall-of-assad-regime-1.369586 "Haaretz"#> Turkey and Israel are renewing strategic ties, as the Syria crisis escalates. <#stdurl http://www.debka.com/article/21061/ "Debka"#> Hundreds of Syrians fled across the border into Lebanon during the last two days. Six of those coming thre had gunshot wounds, after being shot at by Syrian security forces. However, Lebanon is not as safe for refugees as Turkey is. Syria has a lot of influence in Lebanon, and the regime can still reach people there. <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/201162593534638336.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Egypt withdraws application for IMF / World Bank loans" As we reported six weeks ago, Egypt imports half its wheat, but will be bankrupt by September. Earlier this month, the finance minister announced that the IMF had granted Egypt a loan of three billion dollars over 12 months to help put its economy back on track. However, Egypt has now withdrawn its loan applications to the IMF and World Bank, citing "the pressure of public opinion," presumably after watching how Greece is being skewered. Egypt claims that Saudi Arabia and Qatar have pledged enough aid to last them a year. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iaP24zrwUfQ9NqNcS0gaz1am7c7Q?docId=CNG.30d32258221f800003d7d76c4875683a.341 "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Osama bin Laden wanted to change al-Qaeda's name" The papers that were captured along with Osama bin Laden in the recent raid in Pakistan indicated that bin Laden was concerned that al-Qaeda was losing popularity, especially since it was killing huge numbers of Muslims instead of the American's he wanted to target. The organization's full name is "Al-Qaeda al-Jihad," or "The Base of Holy War," but the shortened form meant "The Base," which doesn't make sense to many people. He wanted a name that would make it clear that he was waging a holy war against America and the West, and considered "Taifat al-Tawhed Wal-Jihad, meaning "Monotheism and Jihad Group," or "Jama'at I'Adat al-Khilafat al-Rashida," meaning "Restoration of the Caliphate Group." <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g_rRfaGC7KfnUzwmCIcrcA29yprQ?docId=22e92d17f675466f9ed2b3b5d4c85d19 "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China's Catholic Church will ordain bishops without Vatican approval" The Chinese Patriotic Catholic Association (CPCA), the state-controlled Catholic Church in China, will select and ordain bishops for 40 of the country's 97 dioceses without Vatical approal. The selection will be based on "national conditions and pastoral and evangelizing work." The Vatican says that ordinations can only go ahead with the pope's blessing, but the Vatican and China have not had formal diplomatic ties since 1951. <#stdurl http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011-06/23/content_12763999.htm "Xinhua"#> and <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hUqzfmQj0urCyqeAyAxL0HPyZomQ?docId=CNG.b26a888f0db4e09e044a71eb4ffa05dd.481 "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Venezuela's Hugo Chavez in critical condition after operation" <#inc ww2010.pic g110622b.jpg right "" "Hugo Chávez speaks to Fidel Castro in Cuba (AFP)"#> Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is in critical condition after an operation for a pelvic abscess in a Havana hospital. Chavez's daughter, Rosina, together with his mother, Marisabel Rodriguez, left for Cuba on an air force plane. <#stdurl http://www.elnuevoherald.com/2011/06/25/967505/en-estado-critico-la-salud-de.html "El Nuevo Herald"#> <#stdurl http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.elnuevoherald.com%2F2011%2F06%2F25%2F967505%2Fen-estado-critico-la-salud-de.html&sl=es&tl=en&hl=&ie=UTF-8 "Translation"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Young generations in France losing interest in wine" It's very unusual for anyone in the mainstream to take generations into account for anything, but a new study of wine drinking habits in France reveals significant generational changes in wine drinking that may signal the end of wine as being part of the French national identity. The over-65 World War II survivors are daily consumers of wine, and recognise the strong social and cultural heritage and enjoy sharing the wine experience with family and friends. The Boomers and Gen-Xers drink only socially with friends, rather than family, and for the young Millennial generation, wine consumption is very much the exception rather than the rule. <#stdurl http://www.eurasiareview.com/are-the-french-becoming-bored-with-wine-25062011/ "Eurasia Review"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Climate change carbon markets are easily subject to fraud and crime" Climate change advocates say that the only way to reduce emissions of global warming gases, mainly carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels, is to implement a worldwide market on synthetic securities known as "carbon credits," and then force each government to participate in a trading scheme for these securities. However, Interpol has warned that carbon credit securities schemes are easily taken advantage of by organized crime, and that they're subject to the same kinds of banker fraud that brought about the global financial crisis. (See my 2007 article, <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e071214b ""UN Climate Change conference appears to be ending in farce.""#>) Finally carbon credit trading doesn't even work -- as has been shown by the European countries where such a scheme has been implemented, with the result that carbon emissions have only increased. <#stdurl http://www.tierramerica.info/nota.php?lang=eng&idnews=3708 "Tierramérica"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=828 "26-Jun-11 News -- S. Korea thanks America over Korean War, and warns N. Korea"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110625b 25-Jun-11 News -- G20 aims to lower food prices by government edict =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110625b.head 25-Jun-11 News -- G20 aims to lower food prices by government edict =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110625b.keys Generational Dynamics, food prices, G20, Nicolas Sarkozy, Green Revolution, FAO, health care, Richard Nixon, Wage-price controls =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110625b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110625b.date 25-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110625b.txt1 Unintended consequences of health care law =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110625b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "G20 aims to lower food prices by government edict" With food prices at historic highs, politicians are scrambling for something to blame other than themselves. That was the main agenda item on the meeting of the G-20 finance ministers from the 20 biggest economies in the world. <#inc ww2010.pic g110624.jpg center "" "Chinese farmers rescue their pigs in flood waters (AFP)"#> The meeting, which ended on Thursday, published an <#stdurl http://agriculture.gouv.fr/Plan-d-Action-sur-la-Volatilite "Action Plan"#> with the following five main objectives:
"The Green Revolution in agriculture, which swept much of the developing world during the 1960s, saved an estimated one billion people from famine. Thanks to high-yielding crop varieties, irrigation, agrochemicals and modern management techniques, farmers in developing countries increased food production from 800 million tonnes to more than 2.2 billion tonnes between 1961 and 2000. Intensive crop production helped to reduce the number of undernourished, drive rural development and prevent the destruction of natural ecosystems to make way for extensive farming. Those achievements came at a cost. In many countries, decades of intensive cropping have degraded fertile land and depleted groundwater, provoked pest upsurges, eroded biodiversity, and polluted air, soil and water. ... [T]he yield growth rate of major cereals is declining, and farmers face a series of unprecedented, intersecting challenges: increasing competition for land and water, rising fuel and fertilizer prices, and the impact of climate change. ... It is now recognized that those enormous gains in agricultural production and productivity were often accompanied by negative effects on agriculture’s natural resource base, so serious that they jeopardize its productive potential in the future. “Negative externalities” of intensification include land degradation, salinization of irrigated areas, over-extraction of groundwater, the buildup of pest resistance and the erosion of biodiversity. Agriculture has also damaged the wider environment through, for example, deforestation, the emission of greenhouse gases and nitrate pollution of water bodies."In other words, the Law of Diminishing Returns is working its magic with the use of fertilizers and insecticides, so that they're less effective as time goes on, and in fact they're causing actual damage to farmland. Other resources, including groundwater and forests, are being used up. As I've described in the past, the Green Revolution petered out in the 1990s, at the same time that the financial crises began, and for the same reasons -- the disappearance by death and retirement of the generations of survivors of the Great Depression and WW II. The result has been sharply rising food prices since the year 2000: <#inc ww2010.pic g110624b.gif center "" "Food Price Index, May 2011 (FAO)"#> From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, we can expect a New Green Revolution to take hold in the 2020s, after the Clash of Civilizations world war has ended, just as there was a Green Revolution after WW II ended. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Unintended consequences of health care law" A related story is the recent <#stdurl http://www.mckinsey.com/en/US_employer_healthcare_survey.aspx "survey of employers"#> commissioned by McKinsey & Company that 30 percent of surveyed employers were "definitely or probably" planning on discontinuing employer-sponsored health insurance after 2014, when the new health care law comes into effect. As I've <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e101001 "written"#> several times in the last two years, the so-called "Obamacare" law is economic insanity, and has no chance of actually being implemented. <#inc ww2010.pic g090725.gif right "" "Inflation rate following the imposition of wage-price controls on August 15, 1971 (econreview.com)"#> Until 2009, by far the dumbest and most destructive economic policy enacted in Washington in my lifetime was the imposition, by President Richard Nixon's administration, of wage-price controls, to counter the national "emergency" represented by an inflation rate of about 4.5%. The controls program was an utter disaster. The inflation rate spiked up during the period of wage-price controls, as you can see from the graph. It caused numerous shortages and mini-calamities, did enormous damage until it was ended three years later, and required years for the economy to recover from the damage. One story that's always stuck in my mind was that farmers in New Jersey were drowning chickens. The problem was that chicken feed was a commodity whose price was determined by the international commodities markets, and so its price could not be controlled, while the prices of chickens WERE controlled. So the prices of chicken feed went up, and the prices of chickens stayed the same, meaning that farmers could no longer afford to raise chickens. So they drowned the chickens, leading to a big shortage of chickens. There were thousands of stories like that. The new health-care law is a repeat of Richard Nixon's wage-price controls as applied to health care industry, and the result is equally disastrous. We have stories of worsening doctor shortages, waivers being granted to political cronies, and lawsuits by people who aren't political cronies. It's an absolute mess. The government cannot control health care prices any more than it can control food prices. The G-20 meeting was a waste of time, but the ministers didn't jump off a cliff by imposing food-price controls. The McKinsey study is just the lastest reason why the health care law is economic insanity, and why it will never be implemented. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=827 "25-Jun-11 News -- G20 aims to lower food prices by government edict"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110625 25-Jun-11 World View -- Claim: Iran is actively helping Syria against protesters =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110625.head 25-Jun-11 World View -- Claim: Iran is actively helping Syria against protesters =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110625.keys Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Syria, Iran, Palestine, Israel, Libya, Saab =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110625.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110625.date 25-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110625.txt1 Turkey throws support behind recognition of Palestinian state =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110625.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey is closely monitoring Syria's military maneuvers" <#inc ww2010.pic g110624c.jpg right "" "Syrian refugees demonstrate in a refugee camp in Turkey (Reuters)"#> Syria and Turkey used to be friendly allies, but the mutual hostility has been growing steadily since the Syria's army and security forces have been massacring peaceful protesters. Now that Syria's army is on Turkey's border, Turkey says that it is closely monitoring the situation, especially as its driving thousands of Syrian refugees into Turkey. The Syrians say that they are deeply offended and angered by Turkey's attitude. An unnamed former Syrian intelligence official says that the troops would be pulled back from the border within a week. <#stdurl http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=turkey-monitoring--syria-closely-davutoglu-2011-06-24 "Hurriyet (Ankara)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israeli claim: Iran is actively helping Syria against protesters" A senior Israeli source says that Iran is actively involved in helping Syria's violence against protesters. According to the report, Iran's Revolutionary Guard and the Al-Quds force are operating throughout Syria. Their role is not limited to shootings; Iran has also supplied equipment to the Syrian army, including sniper rifles and communications systems for disrupting the Internet in the country. <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/senior-israeli-source-iran-actively-helping-syria-squash-demonstrations-1.368971 "Haaretz"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey throws support behind recognition of Palestinian state" Turkey's PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Friday that Turkey would "mobilize" support to help recognition of a Palestinian state. He also said Turkey was prepared to contribute toward Palestinian efforts to form a unity government. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jZOWYp-qZkvKPyL3wRrjQo9U5ofQ?docId=e771e2b881a64f7787e90c7452a0bd66 "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "House rebukes Obama on Libya, but won't cut funds" With the "kinetic military action" in Libya now in its fourth month, the House of Representatives sent a mixed message by refusing to either endorse or curtail the U.S. involvement in libya. By an overwhelming margin, lawmakers refused to sanction U.S. participation in a NATO campaign of airstrikes in the North African country, a vote that amounted to a rare, bipartisan rebuke of a president's foreign policy during an active military conflict. Minutes later, however, a Republican-led effort to try to curb financial support for U.S. involvement also failed. <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-congress-libya-20110625,0,571536.story "LA Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China firm on track to buy stake in bankrupt Saab" Swedish Automobile, the owner of Saab Automobile, is effectively bankrupt and shut down, with funds remaining to pay salaries or continue production. However, the Chinese company Pang Da Automobile Trade Co. plans to buy a stake in Saab, allowing it to continue production. However, one analyst is quoted as saying, "There’s little chance for the deal to be approved by Chinese government given the crowded status of local auto manufacturing." <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-24/pang-da-of-china-says-it-s-on-track-to-buy-a-stake-in-saab-owner.html "Bloomberg"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=827 "25-Jun-11 News -- G20 aims to lower food prices by government edict"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110624b 24-Jun-11 News -- Bernanke's Great Historic Experiment approaches judgment day =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110624b.head 24-Jun-11 News -- Bernanke's Great Historic Experiment approaches judgment day =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110624b.keys Generational Dynamics, Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve, Japan, Europe, Greece =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110624b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110624b.date 24-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110624b.txt1 Why you can't kick the can down the road forever =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110624b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Bernanke's Great Historic Experiment approaches judgment day" Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is considered the world's leading expert on the Great Depression, and how to avoid another one. His strategies have been followed not only in the Unitied States, but also in Europe, Japan, and many other countries. So analysts around the world were shocked on Wednesday by the gloomy economic outlook announced by Federal Reserve and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, at his second press conference ever. According to Bernanke's theory, the world should be recovering strongly by now. <#inc ww2010.pic g110623.jpg center "" "Ben Bernanke on Wednesday (Politico)"#> Many economists, including Bernanke, had predicted that the economy would start growing by now, and would be quickly growing by the end of the year. This is the same kind of forecast that we've been hearing for three years. All bad news was always transitory, and the "V-shaped" recovery was always going to start next quarter. However, on Wednesday, a very somber Bernanke said that the economic outlook, especially for jobs and housing, is significantly worse than his last outlook, just two months ago. His gloom was confirmed on Thursday by new data that indicates that new home sales are still falling, while unemployment benefit applications are still increasing, according to <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j5SVMulfJBzrn2efDl49TGir6_pg?docId=4e9f5b7ac28d49688d2c6218ac00eb70 "AP."#> I actually have a great deal of respect for Bernanke as a man, even though I've criticized him very harshly in the past. The reason is that he is apparently an honest, decent man who says what he believes without spinning it. This is in contrast to politicians in Washington and Brussels, and bankers on Wall Street, who scream "sleaze" every time they open their mouths. We've recently had the spectacle of Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the European finance ministers, being quoted as saying, "When it becomes serious, you have to lie," just after he'd been caught in a number of lies about the bailout of Greece. In 2007, as the financial crisis was beginning, I wrote about <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e070827 "Ben Bernanke's great historic experiment,"#> how he was applying the lessons of his academic studies to his management of the financial crisis. I wrote that Generational Dynamics theory tells us that his strategy cannot possibly work. Now, nearly four years later, this has proven to be true. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The Principle of Maximum Ruin" As I wrote recently in <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110614b ""Revisiting the 'Principle of Maximum Ruin,'""#> mainstream macroeconomic models are completely static in time. Economists assume that the same macroeconomic model that worked in the 70s and 80s also works today, an assumption which is completely absurd on its face, since the economy at that time was being run by the extremely risk-averse generations of survivors of the Great Depression. As I've pointed out many times, economists have been consistently wrong about everything, at least since 1995. They didn't predict and can't explain the 1990s tech bubble, the real estate and credit bubbles, the financial crisis since 2007, where we are today, and what's coming next year. Their predictions are no better than flipping a coin. With regard to Ben Bernanke, I'm reminded of the old joke about the guy who says, "I used to have six theories about raising children. Now I have six children and no theories."
"If true, that aggressive action will only exacerbate the already unstable refugee situation in Syria. Unless the Syrian forces immediately end their attacks and their provocations that are not only now affecting their own citizens but (raising) the potential of border clashes, then we're going to see an escalation of conflict in the area. It is further example of the lengths to which President Assad's regime will go to repress the people of Syria rather than actually working in a collaborative way to try to resolve the legitimate concerns of the Syrian people."<#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13899035 "BBC"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey denies supplying Gaddafi troops with food" Al-Jazeera has reported finding that Turkish food rations were feeding forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. If Turkey is supplying food to Gaddafi's forces, it would be a violation of United Nations sanctions. The rations are produced by UNIFO, a Turkish company which specialises in portable rations and meals ready-to-eat. Turkey's foreign ministry said that anyone could purchase the food rations and supply them to Libyan forces, but that it has no knowledge of any Turkish company doing that. <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/video/africa/2011/06/201162320229309670.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Netanyahu demands that Palestinians accept Israel as 'the Jewish state'" Israel's prime miniter Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday night that restarting peace negotiations would requlre that the Palestinian leaders accept Israel as "the Jewish state." Netanyahu pointed out that he had accepted the idea of a Palestinian state in 2009. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=226378 "Jerusalem Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Palestinians may be easing demands for settlement freeze" AP is reporting that top Palestinian official is saying that the Palestinians are ready to ease their demand for a full freeze on Israel's settlement construction in east Jerusalem. The softened position reflects the Palestinians' growing realization that their alternative strategies to talks — reconciling with the Hamas militant group and seeking unilateral recognition at the United Nations — are both in trouble. The reconciliation agreement is collapsing because of Fatah / Hamas disagreements over control of the unity government. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hc--9HpRde8UiIu_JNsFDWO07RVA?docId=6cd20fc55aff477eacd7268fb2f25414 "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Washington's debt reduction talks mirror Greece's austerity debate" <#inc ww2010.pic g110623c.jpg right "" "Republican leaders Jon Kyl and Eric Cantor, who walked out of talks on Thursday"#> The debt reduction debate, which is Washington's version of Greece's debate on austerity measures, collapsed on Thursday, when the two Republican leaders walked out of the talks hosted by VP Joe Biden. The impasse was over raising taxes, which the Republicans oppose and the Democrats say are necessary. According to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, "There is not support in the House for a tax increase, and I don't believe now is the time to raise taxes in light of our current economic situation." Similar quotes have been heard in Athens. <#stdurl http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/top-republicans-walk-vp-bidens-debt-talks/story?id=13917319 "ABC News"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "EU and IMF approve Greece's proposed austerity measures" Austerity measures proposed by Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos meet the requirements to get the next bailout payment were endorsed by officials from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. It seems that every day there's some kind of announcement like that that is virtually meaningless. The crucial test will come on Tuesday, when Greece's legislature has to pass the austerity law, which is opposed by Greece's powerful public sector unions. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-23/greece-sets-solidarity-levy-on-wages.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "New Jersey legislature approves deep cuts to public worker pensions" New Jersey's Assembly passed a landmark overhaul of the health and pension benefits for public employees in a historic defeat for New Jersey’s powerful public sector unions. Under the law, public employees will have to pay more for their benefits. Although the vote was largely partisan, one Democrat said, "Kicking the can down the road and doing nothing will only require more sacrifice from taxpayers and public workers in the future." <#stdurl http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/06/assembly_passes_landmark_emplo.html "New Jersey Star Ledger"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=825 "24-Jun-11 News -- Bernanke's Great Historic Experiment approaches judgment day"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110623b 23-Jun-11 News -- Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110623b.head 23-Jun-11 News -- Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110623b.keys Generational Dynamics, Northern Ireland, Catholics, Protestants, Republicans, Nationalists, Loyalists, Unionists, Belfast, Ulster Plantation, Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) Troubles =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110623b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110623b.date 23-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110623b.txt1 Echos of the Plantation of Ulster =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110623b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again" Political leaders in Belfast, Ireland, are appealing for calm after violence flared with petrol bombs and other missiles thrown, according to the <#stdurl http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/plea-for-calm-as-rioters-clash-in-short-strand-16014174.html "Belfast Telegraph."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110622a.jpg center "" "Belfast resident Anne-Marie Shanks beside windows that were smashed (Belfast Telegraph)"#> In the worst sectarian violence in a decade, scores of masked men launched coordinated attacks on homes and people in the Catholic pro-republican section of Belfast, resulting in several injuries. The violence is being blamed on the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF), a Protestant pro-loyalist militia formed in 1966 to fight the republicans in Ireland. The violence in Northern Ireland is usually portrayed as religious in nature, where Catholics fight against Protestants. But from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it can be called an ethnic conflict between indigenous Gaelic Irish people (usually Catholic, republican, nationalist) versus descendants of invading English and Scottish people (usually Protestant, loyalist, unionist). As is often the case, religion is not the "cause" of this conflict, but is a tool used by the factions to rally supporters. Generally speaking, the objective of the republicans is to unify the Republic of Ireland (southern Ireland) with Northern Ireland into a single republic, while the unionists want Northern Ireland to remain part of the United Kingdom. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Echos of the Plantation of Ulster" There have been clashes between the two groups since the 1400s, but the most important pattern of wars was set by the Nine Years War (1594-1603), where the Irish Gaelics attempted to overthrow English rule. The result was the Plantation of Ulster, which Gaelics today refer to as "ethnic cleansing," because the British drove the Gaelic from their land, took it over as landlords, and used the Gaelics as servants. The English Civil War of the 1640s was a generational crisis war for England, but it was an Awakening era war for the Gaelics, despite a massacre of the Gaelics by the British under Oliver Cromwell. The next crisis war for Northern Ireland was the Williamite-Jacobite war, climaxing in a victory of the British with the Battle of the Boyne on July 12, 1690. This was the date of the victory of Protestant William of Orange over the Catholic King James II, and it followed England's Glorious Revolution of 1688, where the Dutch Prince William "invaded" England and overthrew King James without firing a shot. Today, sectarian violence in Northern Ireland tends to increase as July 12 approaches, as it's commemorated by the Protestant Orange Institution and associated groups, according to <#stdurl http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2011/0622/Belfast-riots-renew-calls-for-Protestant-Catholic-dialogue "CS Monitor."#> The new violence has raised concerns that a new round of "The Troubles" is about to begin. In the 1960s-90s, in a period known as "the Troubles," there was violence and terrorist attacks between the two factions, mostly ending with peace agreements in 1998 and 2005. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, we're seeing a familiar pattern, with alternating periods of peace and violence, with no end to the violence in sight. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=824 "23-Jun-11 News -- Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110623 23-Jun-11 World View -- State Dept. issues travel warning for Gaza =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110623.head 23-Jun-11 World View -- State Dept. issues travel warning for Gaza =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110623.keys Generational Dynamics, Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, State Dept., Gaza, Flotilla, Israel, Greece, George Papandreou, Alexis Tsipras, China, South China Sea, Bahrain, Syria, Damascus University, Postal Service =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110623.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110623.date 23-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110623.txt1 Uncharacteristic silence of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110623.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Uncharacteristic silence of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez raising questions" <#inc ww2010.pic g110622b.jpg right "" "Hugo Chávez speaks to Fidel Castro in Cuba (AFP)"#> Speculation is rampant that Hugo Chávez is much more seriously ill than admitted, and that there's a power vacuum in Venezuela, since June 10, when Chávez was admitted to a hospital in Cuba for hip surgery. Normally he's on television all the time, giving lengthy speeches, sending tweets to his twitter account. But in the last few weeks, he's been little seen except in a few photographs like the one on the right. <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/22/hugo-chavez-silence-power-vacuum-venezuela "Guardian"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "State Dept. issues travel warning for Gaza" The U.S. State Dept. is strongly urging all U.S. citizens to refrain from all travel to the Gaza Strip, in view of the "Freedom Flotilla II" headed to Gaza with the objective of breaking Israel's sea blockade. According to the warning,
"The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) strictly controls the crossing points between Israel and the Gaza Strip. The security environment within Gaza, including its border with Egypt and its seacoast, is dangerous and volatile. U.S. citizens are advised against traveling to Gaza by any means, including via sea. Previous attempts to enter Gaza by sea have been stopped by Israeli naval vessels and resulted in the injury, death, arrest, and deportation of U.S. citizens. U.S. citizens participating in any effort to reach Gaza by sea should understand that they may face arrest, prosecution, and deportation by the Government of Israel. The Government of Israel has announced its intention to seek ten-year travel bans to Israel for anyone participating in an attempt to enter Gaza by sea. On May 31, 2010, nine people were killed, including one U.S. citizen, in such an attempt. The U.S. Embassy in Tel Aviv and the U.S. Consulate General in Jerusalem are not able to provide consular assistance in Gaza or on the high seas or coastal waters."<#stdurl http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/tw/tw_5511.html "U.S. State Dept."#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece's cabinet approve an austerity budget" A few hours after surviving a confidence vote in the Parliament (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110622b ""22-Jun-11 News -- Greece's Papandreou wins anti-climactic vote of confidence""#>), the cabinet of Prime Minister George Papandreou approved a 2012-2015 austerity plan, as well as laws for its application. However, this vote was anti-climactic as the previous vote, because it changed nothing. The austerity plan is only a paper document until it's passed by the Parliament, with a vote currently scheduled for Tuesday. As we've pointed out, despite numerous meetings and announcements, the Europeans and Greeks have postponed every real financial decision for months. With bankruptcy facing Greece as early as July 15, EU politicians will now have to accomplish in a few days what they couldn't accomplish in months of haggling. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8591262/Greek-cabinet-approves-austerity-budget.html "Telegraph"#> There is considerable opposition to the proposed austerity program. According to Alexis Tsipras of the Left Coalition, "This is not a program to salvage the economy, it's a program for pillage before bankruptcy." The logic is that there's no point in following an austerity program, if you're going to go bankrupt anyway. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-13869428 "BBC"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China warns U.S. to stay out of South China Sea dispute" China warned the U.S. on Wednesday to stay out of disputes in the South China Sea. "If the United States does want to play a role, it may counsel restraint to those countries that have frequently been taking provocative action and ask them to be more responsible in their behavior. I believe that individual countries are actually playing with fire, and I hope that fire will not be drawn to the United States." <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j59Z5oG4QqZH52iBVIif1W5M7pTw?docId=33b11d3341674a1386de8f30642115c8 "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Bahrain prison sentences infuriate Shia majority" The sentencing of 21 men to prison terms ranging from two years to life has sent waves of anger through the majority Shia community in Bahrain. Family members say that they were tortured, denied legal representation, and are now being given harsh sentences to silence them. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13879622 "BBC"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syrian security forces murder students after Assad promised reform" Syria's president Bashar al-Assad gave a speech on Monday at Damascus University where he promised reforms. But some students refused to participate in pro-regime ralles. And so, security forces launched a raid at Damascus University late Tuesday, killing and beating dozens of students. <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-syria-dormitories-20110623,0,163441.story "LA Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Postal Service to stop making pension payments" The U.S. Postal Service, which is facing bankruptcy in September, announced on Wednesday that it will stop paying employer contributions to the Federal Employees Retirement System. The $115 million payment, made every other week, will stop on June 24. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-22/u-s-postal-service-will-suspend-contributions-into-employee-pension-fund.html "Bloomberg"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=824 "23-Jun-11 News -- Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110622b 22-Jun-11 News -- Greece's Papandreou wins anti-climactic vote of confidence =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110622b.head 22-Jun-11 News -- Greece's Papandreou wins anti-climactic vote of confidence =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110622b.keys Generational Dynamics, George Papandreou, Greece, IMF =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110622b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110622b.date 22-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110622b.txt1 Greece's bankruptcy threatens Greece and Europe =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110622b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece's Papandreou wins anti-climactic vote of confidence" Prime minister George Papandreou won a vote of confidence by a vote of 155 to 143 in Greece's Parliament early Wednesday morning, after giving a passionate speech about the need to learn the lessons of previous wars and about the need for unity, according to <#stdurl http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_6641_21/06/2011_395444 "Kathimerini."#> "All Greeks have the duty and the ability to change this country." <#inc ww2010.pic g110621.jpg center "" "George Papandreou speaking to Athens Parliament on Tuesday (AFP)"#> However, the vote was anti-climatic, since it accomplished nothing except to avoid the collapse of Greece's government, which many pundits claimed would have been a major crisis. TV analysts were stressing the dangers if Papandreou lost the vote, but a lot of it was hyperbole, according to the <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jun/21/greece-bailout-lehmans-moment-crisis "Guardian"#>:
"[London] analysts were showing off the benefits of a classical education as they waited on Tuesday for the Greek parliament to decide whether it would accept tough new conditions for a bailout. The country faced a Sisyphean task, said one, namechecking the king of Corinth who was condemned to roll a rock up a hill only to see it bounce down again, then repeat the task for eternity. Another scribbler compared the challenge facing Greece to the 12 labours of Hercules. Top prize for erudition, though, went to Nick Parsons of National Australia Bank, who chose the longest day to compare the long Hellenic power struggle to the story of King Theseus and his bride-to-be Hippolyta in A Midsummer Night's Dream. The European Union and the International Monetary Fund had handed enormous power to the Greeks, Parsons argued, just as Theseus handed power to Hippolyta by agreeing to lay down his sword."The reason that nothing was accomplished is because the real problem is the vote on the austerity measures demanded by the EU and the IMF, and that vote, it turns out, won't occur until next week, on Tuesday, June 28. The vote in the Parliament occurred as about 10,000 angry protesters filled the plaza outside, according to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-21/papandreou-wins-confidence-vote-raising-rescue-chances.html "Bloomberg."#> The powerful electricians trade union conducted strikes on Monday and Tuesday, forcing rolling power outages for two days, as a protest against the planned austerity measures. According to a survey, Greeks oppose the austerity measures by 48% to 35%. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece's bankruptcy threatens Greece and Europe" As we reported a couple of days ago, the Eurogroup unexpectedly failed to approve the next tranche, €12 billion, of payout from last year's bailout commitment. This decision was postponed until early July, just barely in time for Greece to make €4 billion in payments by the week of July 15, or go bankrupt. By delaying this decision, the Eurogroup handed Papandreou a club with which to beat the legislators into submission, although this whole concept may backfire if it further angers the opponents of the austerity measures before the vote next Tuesday. The Eurogroup plan was that the €12 bilion would allow Greece to pay its bills until September, and that would give them enough time in July and August to work out the details of an additional €110 billion bailout that would carry Greece through 2012. But the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has thrown a monkey wrench into that plan, according to the <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0bcfe2d4-9b0e-11e0-a254-00144feabdc0.html "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>. The IMF is going to block the €12 billion aid payment until the Eurogroup comes up with the details of the additional €110 billion bailout. Suddenly, a relatively simple "just give them the money and kick the can down the road again" decision has turned into a very high-pressure situation, which will lead to many additional crisis meetings in the next two or three weeks. With the additional bailout, Greece's total public debt will shoot up from a monumental €350 billion to a completely overwhelming €460 billion. No analyst that I've heard or read recently believes that Greece has any chance of repaying that without defaulting. In this situation, there are two camps of people: Those who say that Greece must continually be bailed out, no matter how much it costs, versus those who say that Greece should be cut loose from the euro, and be allowed to default in its original currency, the drachma. These choices are like being between Scylla and Charybdis, to use one of my own favorite classical Greek metaphors. However, Odysseus at least had the advantage of knowing where these two monsters lived, and the consequences of confronting either of them. But today's financial ministers are completely in uncharted waters. Either of the two choices apparently will lead to a major global banking crisis of unpredictable proportions. A financial crisis for Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Belgium will be almost immediate consequences. At the very least, Greece's entire banking system, as well as banks outside of Greece, will collapse, leading to the unstable situation that gave rise to Communism and Fascism in the 1930s, after the collapse of Austria's Credit-Anstalt bank and Germany's Danatbank in 1931. Despite daily meetings, speeches and grand announcements for the past few weeks, not a single financial decision has been made. Every one that was supposed to be made has been postponed. In the meantime, Greece's crisis has worsened every day. As I've been saying for years, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the worst financial crisis in world history cannot be avoided. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=823 "22-Jun-11 News -- Greece's Papandreou wins anti-climactic vote of confidence"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110622 22-Jun-11 World View -- Support for Afghan war collapses =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110622.head 22-Jun-11 World View -- Support for Afghan war collapses =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110622.keys Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Syria, Gaza, Israel, UNRWA, Freedom Flotilla II =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110622.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110622.date 22-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110622.txt1 New flotilla aims to break Israel's sea blockade of Gaza =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110622.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Obama to announce Afghanistan troop withdrawal, as war support falls" <#inc ww2010.pic g110621c.png right "" "Sharp rise in number backing U.S. Troop Pullout (Pew)"#> On Wednesday evening, President Barack Obama will announce the withdrawal of some of the 100,000 troops in Afghanistan. Speculation is that he'll announce the withdrawal of between 5,000 and 15,000 troops by the end of this year. <#stdurl http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2011-06-21-obama-afghanistan-troops-withdrawal_n.htm?csp=34news "USA Today"#> Support for the war in Afghanistan has been collapsing rapidly. For the first time, a majority (56%) says that U.S. troops should be brought home as soon as possible, while 39% favor keeping troops in Afghanistan until the situation has stabilized. The proportion favoring a quick withdrawal of U.S. forces has increased by eight points since last month (from 48%), immediately after the killing of Osama bin Laden. A year ago, just 40% favored removing the troops as soon as possible, while 53% favored keeping them in Afghanistan until the situation stabilized. <#stdurl http://people-press.org/2011/06/21/record-number-favors-removing-u-s-troops-from-afghanistan/ "Pew Research Center"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Yemen's president Saleh still in unknown state of health" After the attack on his life, aides to President Ali Abdullah Saleh said that he would return from his hospital bed in Saudi Arabia "in a few days." It's now been several weeks, and they're still saying that he'll return to Yemen in a few days. But other sources say that Saleh is having "difficulties breathing and moving," and that he's undergoing surgery in the intensive care unit of a military hospital. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gVIqLs6WIaQ7x-zBmf7AQ8PExoaw?docId=CNG.3f4c6722959304ddd3b019ff687662db.511 "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel approves building of 1,200 new homes in Gaza" Israel has approved the importing of a large enough volume of building materials into Gaza to allow the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) to build 1,200 new homes and 18 schools. This is one of the largest housing projects that the Gaza Strip has seen in years. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Israel-Authorizes-New-Gaza-Housing-Project-124317869.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria's regime complains about biased media" <#inc ww2010.pic g110621b.jpg right "" "Pro-Assad demonstrators in Damascus (SANA)"#> Syria's state run news service is complaining that al-Jazeera, al-Arabiya, the BBC, and other news channels are continuing "their broadcast of fabricated lies" and favoring "those seeking to destabilize Syria," ignoring the millions of pro-regime protesters. Instead, "full time coverage is dedicated for alleged anti-system protests supposedly taking place in the alleys of some Syrian areas shown in shaky and blurry pictures reflecting the views of the agendas they are connected with." <#stdurl http://www.sana.sy/eng/337/2011/06/21/354044.htm "Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "New flotilla aims to break Israel's sea blockade of Gaza" "Freedom Flotilla II," consisting of around 10 ships carrying 500-600 pro-Palestinian activists from 22 countries, will sail from various Mediterranean ports around June 20, with the objective of breaking Israel's sea blockade of Gaza. The U.S. boat, the Audacity of Hope, will have 36 passengers, including 10 American Jews. "It's important that Jews are in this boat... The Jewish lobby in this country is so powerful," said a spokeswoman. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is discouraging the new flotilla, out of fear it could degenerate into violence. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jNeZo7GKzc7tcBVyKKnlxZ7TrBEw?docId=CNG.f6e4cf8f7bcbf9e0be98991770b9f79b.351 "VOA"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=823 "22-Jun-11 News -- Greece's Papandreou wins anti-climactic vote of confidence"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110621b 21-Jun-11 News -- Palestinian unity announcement canceled over Hamas-Fatah split =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110621b.head 21-Jun-11 News -- Palestinian unity announcement canceled over Hamas-Fatah split =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110621b.keys Generational Dynamics, Hamas, Fatah, Palestine, Israel, Gaza, West Bank, Salam Fayyad, Ehud Barak, Jamal Khodari, Mahmoud Abbas =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110621b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110621b.date 21-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110621b.txt1 PA president Abbas says that, given options, he won't go to UN =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110621b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Palestinian unity announcement canceled over Hamas-Fatah split" Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas are supposed to have reconciled for the first time since they were at war in 2008, But the reconciliation has been fraught with problems. And now, the participants have canceled a high profile meeting scheduled for Tuesday to announce a new "unity government," according to <#stdurl http://gulfnews.com/news/region/palestinian-territories/prime-minister-s-post-a-test-for-palestinian-unity-1.824321 "Gulf News."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110620.jpg center "" "Salam Fayyad and Ehud Barak shake hands at King David Hotel, July 2010 (Ynet)"#> The immediate disagreement triggering the cancellation is a dispute over the choice of Prime Minister of the unity government. Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority and Fatah leader, insists on nominating Salam Fayyad, a U.S.-educated internationally respected former World Bank economist who currently heads the Palestinian government in the West Bank. It's believed that a Fayyad government would reassure Western leaders who are concerned about having to deal with a unity government containing Hamas. But Hamas is dead set against Fayyad being any part of the unity government, and considers him to be a criminal traitor because he's negotiated some agreements with the Israelis. In the photo above, published by <#stdurl http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3915347,00.html "Ynet"#> in July, 2010, Fayyad is shaking hands with Ehud Barak at the King David Hotel in Jerusalem. Hamas considers Barak to be a war criminal. Fayyad was, in fact, one of the key people who worked to achieve the unity deal in the first place, according to the <#stdurl http://english.pnn.ps/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10267&Itemid=56 "Palestinian News Network."#> But after the collapse of the Tuesday meeting was announced, Fayyad said that he may announce his refusal to head the new government, so as not to be an obstacle to Palestinian unity. However, it's far from clear that the withdrawal of Fayyad from consideration will clear the way for the unity government to proceed, since Fayyad is only a symbol of the larger issue of whether Hamas or Fatah will dominate the unity government. A major dispute erupted a month ago over whether the Palestinian parliament would have to approve a unity government, according to <#stdurl http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/13108/World/Region/-New-crisis-on-road-to-Palestinian-reconciliation.aspx "Al-Ahram."#> Hamas favored requiring parliament's approval, because Hamas members are in the majority. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "New poll shows that Palestinians favor Fatah policies" However, a new poll of 1,200 Gaza and West Bank Palestinians conducted by the <#stdurl http://pcpsr.org/survey/polls/2011/p40epressrelease.html "Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR)"#> shows that public attitudes among Palestinians have changed substantially since the unity agreement was first announced. Prior to the unity agreement, Palestinians were most concerned about the issue of the Hamas/Fatah split. Once the unity agreement was anounced, the concerns about the split were greatly reduced. Instead, a different issue became prominent: The concern that the unity government will bring back international political and financial sanctions and boycotts. This is a valid concern, since many Western governments have expressed an unwillingness to deal with any government of which Hamas is a part, since Hamas is considered to be a terrorist group. (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110429b ""29-Apr-11 News -- Hamas declares Quartet 'obsolete', while West mulls aid cutoff to Palestinians""#>) Thus, now that the unity government appears to be imminent, the poll indicates that a clear majority of Palestinians want the new government to implement the policies of Fatah and the Palestinian Authority, rather than the policies of Hamas. According to the poll:
"Remember when NATO was accused by the international media and public of not being able to prevent 8,000 Muslim Bosnians from being murdered in front of the world's eyes? As a member of NATO and a country whose border is about to witness such a massacre by the Syrian army, Turkey will not allow such a thing to happen again, especially before its own eyes."According to the article, there have been numerous top-level visits of Turkish officials to the border region, in order to send a clear and serious message to Syria that Turkey will not close its eyes to the killings, though apparently the message is not being understood by Assad. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=821 "20-Jun-11 News -- Turkey and Syria move closer to military clash"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110620 20-Jun-11 World View -- Eurogroup unexpectedly fails to approve Greece bailout =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110620.head 20-Jun-11 World View -- Eurogroup unexpectedly fails to approve Greece bailout =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110620.keys Generational Dynamics, Eurogroup, Greece, George Papandreou, Jean-Claude Juncker, Nato, Tripoli, Libya, Madrid, Spain, Casablanca, Morocco, Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev, Super-Putin =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110620.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110620.date 20-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110620.txt1 Nato admits it probably killed civilians in Tripoli, Libya =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110620.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Eurogroup unexpectedly fails to approve next Greece bailout payment" <#inc ww2010.pic g110619b.jpg right "" "George Papandreou speaking passionately to Greek Parliament (AFP)"#> As thousands of self-proclaimed "Indignant" demonstrators staged peaceful protests outside the Parliament in Athens, Greece's Prime Minister George Papandreou made a dramatic plea for the political parties to unify behind the austerity measures -- tax hikes, spending cuts and privatizations -- that he's proposed, but which have failed in previous attempts to gain approval. "The consequences of a sudden bankruptcy or exit from the euro zone would be immediately disastrous for Greek households, banks, and the country’s credibility," he said, appealing to opposition politicians "to stop fighting in these critical times, stop projecting the image that the country is being torn apart." However, the leader of the radical left coalition said that the austerity measures are the "kiss of death for the Greek people." Papandreou faces a vote of no-confidence on Tuesday. <#stdurl http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_19/06/2011_395173 "Kathimerini"#> The Eurogroup of European finance ministers decided to play brinksmanship on Sunday, by unexpectedly failing to approve the next tranche -- 12 billion euros -- of payout from last year's bailout commitment. It had been expected that this payment would be approved, allowing Greece to pay its bills through September, and giving the EU and IMF time to figure out how to bail out Greece through 2012. (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110618b ""18-Jun-11 News -- Europeans devise a 'voluntary' bailout of Greece""#>) The approval decision has been postponed until early July. (Greece needs to cover about 4 billion euros of bills maturing between July 15 and July 22, and faces about 3 billion euros of coupon payments in the month, and then must redeem 6.6 billion euros of maturing bonds on August 20.) Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker told reporters, "We forcefully reminded the Greek government that by the end of this month they have to see to it that we are all convinced that all the commitments they made are fulfilled." <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-20/europe-fails-to-agree-on-greek-aid-payout-pressing-papandreou-to-cut-debt.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Nato admits it probably killed civilians in Tripoli, Libya" <#inc ww2010.pic g110619c.jpg right "" "People gather outside the rubble of apartment building struck by missile (AFP)"#> Nato officials admitted on Sunday that Nato airstrikes were probably responsible for the destruction of of an apartment building in a residential neighborhood of Tripoli, killing nine people, according to Libyan authorities. Nato said "there may have been a weapons system failure which may have caused a number of civilian casualties." A military missile site was the intended target of the air raid, but "one weapon" apparently went astray. <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/middleeast/la-fg-libya-nato-20110620,0,7734394.story "LA Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Tens of thousands protest in Madrid, Spain" Some 37,000 protesters in the May 15 Movement, named for the day on which the protests started, converged on Madrid, Spain, on Sunday for peaceful protests. They were protesting their governments austerity measures, but they were also protesting the European Union's efforts to stabilize the euro. <#stdurl http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/europe/06/19/spain.protests/ "CNN"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Ten thousand young people protest in Casablanca, Morocco" Although there hasn't been the violence experienced in other countries, thousands of Moroccans have been holding pro-reform demonstrations since February 20. Some ten thousand young people from what is now called the February 20 Movement rallied in Casablanca to reject the constitutional reforms proposed by King Mohammed VI. Mohammed is 47 years old, and took over the Arab world's longest-serving dynasty in 1999. He holds virtually all power, and is also its top religious authority. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hoOpYbvM53CK50DS8uh8Vf4mB4-A?docId=CNG.183747070ebaeb0aaf1c700ebe1075ce.a51 "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev become cartoon superheroes" <#inc ww2010.pic g110619d.gif center "" "Panel from Super-Putin comic"#> Check out <#stdurl http://www.superputin.ru/englishski/#> -- where Russian PM Vladimir Putin becomes a superhero beating the terrorists, along with his sidekick, President Dmitry Medvedev, who is dressed as a bear. The comic strip is apparently the first in a serious about "Super Putin, Man Like Any Other." According to the creator, "We wanted to stir Russia's depressing political scene and create some dialogue." <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gtflZz5km4B57zaacUtbO86fLL9A?docId=CNG.f668c1fb8957b79be4affa075893f4ac.581 "AFP"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=821 "20-Jun-11 News -- Turkey and Syria move closer to military clash"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110619b 19-Jun-11 News -- Violence by ethnic Kachins threatens Burma/China relationship =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110619b.head 19-Jun-11 News -- Violence by ethnic Kachins threatens Burma/China relationship =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110619b.keys Generational Dynamics, Burma, Kachin, Kokang, Shan, Myanmar, Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110619b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110619b.date 19-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110619b.txt1 It's too early for a new crisis civil war in Burma =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110619b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Violence by ethnic Kachins threatens Burma/China relationship" In August 2009, violent fighting between Burma's army and rebels from the Kokang ethnic group sent tens of thousands of Kokang villagers across the border into China. China allowed this because the Kokang are a Han-Chinese minority. Beijing heavily condemned Burma for the attacks on the Kokang. <#inc ww2010.pic g110618.jpg center "" "Burma PM Thein Sein and China Premier Wen Jiabao in Beijing"#> It's different this past week, now that the Burmese army is fighting Kachin rebels in Kachin province of northeast Burma (Myanmar), and the fighting is threatening to spill into the Shan ethnic group to the south, according to <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/Burma-Clashes-Raise-Concern-of-Spreading-Conflict-123996999.html "VOA."#> This time, China has closed the border, and is demanding that the Burmese take all necessary steps to quell the violence. <#inc ww2010.pic g110618b.gif right "" "Burma"#> The Kachin and Shan are indigenous ethnic groups, but the greater problem is that the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), a separatist organization, is in control of townships near two Chinese-built hydroelectric dams, according to the <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/burmamyanmar/8580726/Burmas-army-clash-with-ethnic-Kachin-rebels-for-eighth-day-running.html "Telegraph."#> The KIO has set up refugee camps for thousands of Kachins fleeing the fighting. China has evacuated hundreds of Chinese workers back to China, according to <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jAQVDq-qs1VwRAJ8vD18ZAwREfWg?docId=CNG.8acba1b206bbac57a7e425ac22157b65.5f1 "AFP."#> Burma has had several ethnic rebellions in the last 50 years, and they've all ended quickly. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the new fighting is expected to end quickly as well, but Burmese officials have been following their usual policy of maximum brutality and bloodshed. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Crushing rebellions" Burma's last two crisis wars (1886-91 and 1948-58) were extremely bloody and violent civil wars between ethnic groups. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e070926 ""Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter""#>) What always happens after any such war is that the survivors vow that they'll do everything possible to make sure that it doesn't happen again. However, the people who grow up after the war have no such horrible memories, and they begin to protest and demonstrate. In the case of Burma, the survivors formed a military junta that still rules today, even though the members are aging. Their way of making sure that no similar civil war ever occurs again is to brutally crush every rebellion as quickly as it starts. On 8/8/88 (August 8, 1988), hundreds of thousands of students, in what is now called the "88 generation," joined by monks and civilians, marched against the military government. Soldiers opened fire on demonstrators with machine guns, resulting in thousands of casualties. In 2008, as the 20th anniversary of the 1988 massacre approached, there were massive new demonstrations in Rangoon (Yangon), led by monks and nuns, as well as many ordinary citizens. Thousands of troops poured into the streets of Rangoon. Hundreds of activists and citizens were shot dead or burned alive in government crematoriums. Thousands of Buddhist monks, who led the protests to begin with, have been rounded up and detained. Some were found floating face down in rivers. Now new protests are appearing, this time in the northern provinces of Kachin and Shan. These protests cannot lead to a new civil war, because Burma is in a generational Unraveling era, and there are too many survivors of the last crisis civil war still around. In 5 or 10 years, a new crisis civil war WILL be possible, and no amount of government brutality will stop it -- in fact, government brutality at that time will feed it. But today's protests will fizzle no matter what the government does, and so the brutality is unnecessary. Probably the greatest significance of the fighting at this time is the effect that it will have on the hydropower dams that the Chinese are constructing. These projects have displaced hundreds of thousands of Kachins from their homes, but the electricity being generated is being sent to China, and the payments are being to Burma's ruling élite in Naypyidaw, according to <#stdurl http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3259&Itemid=168 "Asia Sentinel."#> There have already been a number of bombings at the dam sites, and as resentment builds, we can expect to see more acts of terrorism, and more xenophobia directed at the million of Chinese living in the region. If China's interests begin to be seriously threatened, then it may feel compelled to intervene. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=820 "19-Jun-11 News -- Violence by ethnic Kachins threatens Burma/China relationship"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110619 19-Jun-11 World View -- Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood on a charm offensive =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110619.head 19-Jun-11 World View -- Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood on a charm offensive =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110619.keys Generational Dynamics, Athens, Communist party, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Syria, Turkey, Bdama, Bashar al-Assad, N. Janardhan =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110619.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110619.date 19-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110619.txt1 Union members march through Athens and protest austerity measures =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110619.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Union members march through Athens and protest austerity measures" <#inc ww2010.pic g110618c.jpg right "" "Communist party protesters in Athens, Saturday (AP)"#> Several thousand pro-Communist union members marched through central Athens yesterday to protest the government’s latest austerity measures and plans to sell off state enterprises to appease international creditors. "People should have no illusions . . . [the government] and creditors will sit together to skin the Greek people alive," said a Communist party official. <#stdurl http://www.boston.com/news/world/europe/articles/2011/06/19/austerity_protest_in_greece_draws_5000/ "AP"#> In a nationwide survey of over 1,200 Greek voters, 47.5% said they wanted parliament to reject the reform package being offered by the EU and IMF, while only 34.8% wanted to approve it. The loan package would provide 120 bill euros, but would require public sector layoffs and higher taxes. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/18/us-greece-poll-idUSTRE75H1PU20110618 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood on a charm offensive" Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood is planning to contest up to 50% of the parliamentary seats in September's elections, and is campaigning among Coptic Christians to gain supporters. The group has been trying to dispel doubts, particularly among Copts, that it is seeking to monopolise the political scene in the new Egypt and set up a purely Islamic state. "The Freedom and Justice Party has developed a platform that gives Copts the chance to be influential leaders within the party," said Rafiq Habib, a Coptic Christian, who has become the vice-president of the new party. <#stdurl http://gulfnews.com/news/region/egypt/muslim-brotherhood-on-charm-offensive-1.823308 "Gulf News"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria's forces storm town on border with Turkey" In a move certain to increase tensions with Turkey, Syria's troops and gunmen loyal to president Bashar al-Assad stormed the town of Bdama on Saturday, burning houses and arresting dozens. Bdama provides food and supplies to several thousand other Syrians who have fled from the violence in their own villages. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/19/us-syria-idUSLDE73N02P20110619 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "What should a Mideast leader do to survive in office?" According to UAE-based political analyst N. Janardhan, the most important rule for a Mideast leader to survive in office is to never, never, never befriend the west. <#stdurl http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/06/18/153831.html "Al-Arabiya"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=820 "19-Jun-11 News -- Violence by ethnic Kachins threatens Burma/China relationship"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110618b 18-Jun-11 News -- Europeans devise a 'voluntary' bailout of Greece =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110618b.head 18-Jun-11 News -- Europeans devise a 'voluntary' bailout of Greece =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110618b.keys Generational Dynamics, Greece, Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy, George Papandreou, Moody's, Italy =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110618b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110618b.date 18-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110618b.txt1 Greece's Papandreou faces a vote of confidence =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110618b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Europeans devise a 'voluntary' bailout of Greece" Friday was another one of those Alice in Wonderland days where all you can do is shake your head in disbelief at the absurd lengths to which desperate European politicians are going. <#inc ww2010.pic g110617.jpg center "" "Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy after Friday's meeting in Berlin"#> Grinning financial experts on TV on Friday were declaring that German Chancellor Angela Merkel had agreed to back down and accept the terms of French President Nicolas Sarkozy, and that a bailout of Greece had been agreed on. Actually, nothing had been agreed on except for the use of the word "voluntary" in a way that was completely meaningless. But it will allow Merkel and Sarkozy to go back to their respective countries and make contradicting claims. Greece's total debt is an astonishing 350 billion euros. The Germans are sick of paying to bail out Greece, so they're demanding that Greece "reprofile" or "restructure" its debt, so that Greece will owe less than 350 billion euros, and the investors can absorb the loss. This would be a form of default. The investors are the banks, with the European Central Bank (ECB) being the biggest bondholder, so the ECB is dead set against default by any name. The French are on the side of the ECB. There's an even bigger problem with any kind of default. Recall that a credit default swap (CDS) is an insurance policy that insures against the default of a bond. Any kind of Greek default would trigger a "credit event" or "rating event," that would would require all CDS insurance policies on Greek bonds to be paid off. It is believed that this would require hundreds of billions of dollars in CDS payments, causing a chain reaction of bankruptcies. Therefore, on the one hand Greece MUST default, but on the other hand, a default would be catastrophic -- according to whom you believe. So Merkel and Sarkozy agreed to an Alice in Wonderland compromise that's been in the works for a few weeks. The compromise is that investors will contribute "voluntarily." Suppose you have a 2-year Greek Treasury bond that's due to be redeemed in January. Then in January, instead of redeeming it, you will voluntarily roll it over, and take a 10-year bond in exchange. And so, as we recently quoted from <#stdurl http://www.eurointelligence.com/article/article/kicking-the-can-down-to-the-european-summit-and-beyond.html "Euro Intelligence,"#> nobody in their right mind would voluntarily take up any exchange offer of this type, and to the extent they do, the rating agencies, and everybody else will conclude that they have been forced. And if there's any sort of force or coercion, then a credit event will be triggered. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "So what did Merkel agree to?" Merkel was satisfied that banks and private creditors should accept some losses, according to <#stdurl http://www.euronews.net/2011/06/17/second-bailout-for-greece-looms/ "Euro News"#>:
"The main principle is a voluntary participation from the banks. That’s an important message for the banks because there are worries that we’re starting a credit crisis and we don’t want to take that risk."Sarkozy, on the other hand, seems to be satisfied that French banks will accept only small losses, if any. So both sides got what they wanted, even though they wanted opposite things. It's a miracle! In fact, there was no agreement on anything, since the terms of the bailout were left for another day. There was no attempt to define what "voluntary" meant, for example, or how you get investors to "voluntarily" screw themselves with no coercion. Those details will have to be worked out "soon," according to Sarkozy:
"We want to act as soon as possible, without fixing a date, but September wouldn’t be 'as fast as possible' and we’ll have other concerns in August, and as we’re already half way through June, so 'as soon as possible' probably means July."So there you have it. There was absolutely no agreement on Friday, but they put out a silly, meaningless statement about "voluntary" restructuring, and said they'd try to work out the details next month, but they're not sure of the date. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece's Papandreou faces a vote of confidence" The Eurogroup finance ministers are going to meet in Luxembourg on Sunday. They are expected to approve the next tranche of last year's bailout, even though Greece's economy has gotten worse in the last year, and has not met the conditions for receipt of this money. But the alternative is immediate bankruptcy by Greece, with all the consequences described above, and so Greece will just get the money, probably with no conditions attached. This will permit Greece to pay its bills through September, and that will give the Europeans time to figure out the details of the "voluntary restructuring." As we <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110616b "described"#> a couple of days ago, Greece's government was in total chaos and close to collapse, partially because of some missteps by Prime Minister George Papandreou in response to the massive street riots earlier this week. Several of Papandreou's ministers resigned, and on Friday, Papandreou appointed a new finance minister, according to <#stdurl http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_25531_17/06/2011_395073 "Kathimerini."#> The purpose of the cabinet reshuffle was to quell dissent from people in Papandreou's own Socialist party. Whether that's enough may be revealed on Tuesday, when Papandreou will face a vote of no confidence in the Parliament. It will effectively be a vote on Panadreou's entire austerity program, which was a condition of the bailout. If Papandreou loses the vote of confidence, it will almost certainly also mean that his entire fiscal austerity program will lose as well, and that could cause Germany to pull out of the bailout package altogether. Another thing that can go wrong is that Germany's Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe, which will be meeting on July 5 according to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-09/german-top-court-schedules-hearing-in-euro-bailout-suits-1-.html "Bloomberg,"#> could declare the aid package unconstitutional, and block it. One thing that was apparent from the commentary on Friday was that there's almost no one left who believes that Greece is going to escape default eventually. In the case of the war in Libya, you can always hope that someone will kill Gaddafi, and everyone will live happily ever after. But no one believes that the situation with Greece is going to end happily. Between the riots, the no-confidence vote, the court hearing, the Eurogroup meetings, and the investors, this situation could turn into a major world crisis on any day. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Moody's may cut Italy's credit rating" Moody's Investors Service on Friday said it may cut Italy's sovereign credit rating, citing such challenges as reforming a rigid labor market while also facing the likelihood of rising interest rates. "Moody's review of Italy's sovereign rating will focus on the growth prospects for the Italian economy in coming years, and particularly the prospects for a removal of important structural bottlenecks that could hinder a stronger economic recovery in the medium term," the firm said in a statement. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/17/us-italy-moodys-review-idUSTRE75G5AX20110617 "Reuters"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=819 "18-Jun-11 News -- Europeans devise a 'voluntary' bailout of Greece"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110618 18-Jun-11 World View -- Taiwan sides with U.S. against China in Sea =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110618.head 18-Jun-11 World View -- Taiwan sides with U.S. against China in Sea =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110618.keys Generational Dynamics, Taiwan, China, Taiping Island, South China Sea, Philippines, Syria, Gaza, flotilla, Dalai Lama =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110618.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110618.date 18-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110618.txt1 Israeli navy practices boarding ships in readiness for Gaza flotilla =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110618.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Taiwan sides with U.S. against China over South China Sea policy" <#inc ww2010.pic g110617b.jpg right "" "Taiping Island"#> In a change of police that's sure to infuriate Beijing, Taiwan now supports the U.S. position on "freedom of navigation" in the South China Sea. China has been claiming as sovereign territory a huge area in the South China Sea, including regions that are clearly the sovereign territory of Vietnam, the Philippines, and other countries. The U.S. has taken no position on these disputes, but insists that that the South China Sea must remain open to all vessels for free navigation. China has taken the position that it must approve the passage of any ships, especially American military vessels, before they can pass through the South China Sea. Taiwan is now taking the U.S. position. The Taiwanese Navy will also send a naval fleet to Taiwan-controlled Taiping Island -- the biggest island in the Spratlys -- on a routine mission soon. Taiwan operates an airstrip with a 3,800-foot-long, 100-foot-wide cement path on Taiping Island. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38067&tx_ttnews[backPid]=25&cHash=b82c5e4665167be7186e90886b9a9069 "Jamestown"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China's navy conducts live fire drills in South China Sea" A few days after Vietnam conducted live fire artillery drills in the South China Sea, China's navy has been conducting three days of military exercises, including live fire drills, in the disputed waters of the South China Sea, near the Spratly Islands, which are claimed by several countries. Up until now, all encounters have occurred with non-military vessels, and the possibility of a military confrontation is now increasing. <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-china-vietnam-20110618,0,3614940.story "LA Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Fresh Protests Erupt in Syria on Friday" There were fresh protests in cities across Syria on Friday, after midday prayers. There were a few hundred protesters in some cities, and tens of thousands in others. There was intense firing by the army in some cities to disperse the protesters. <#stdurl http://www.dp-news.com/en/detail.aspx?articleid=87312 "Day Press (Syria)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israeli navy practices boarding ships in readiness for Gaza flotilla" Israeli naval commandos carried out wide-ranging exercises in the takeover of a large ship, in preparation for a possible raid of the vessels taking part in the Gaza-bound flotilla that is expected to sail in coming weeks. The exercise appeared aimed at avoiding the killing of any of the passengers in case the commandos are ordered to board the ships to stop them from breaking Israel's naval blockade of Gaza. <#stdurl http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/israeli-navy-practises-boarding-ships-in-readiness-for-gaza-flotilla "National (UAE)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "12 reasons why China is heading for a crash" Reason #1: Over-reliance on property speculation for profits. Reason #5: Local government is hopelessly, intrinsically, deeply corrupt. <#stdurl http://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-wheels-are-falling-off-chinas-boom-2011-6 "Business Insider"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The Dalai Lama walks into a pizza shop ..." A TV anchor in Australia was interviewing the Dalai Lama, and decided to tell him a joke. The Dalai Lama had no idea what he's talking about, and there was humiliation all around. I thought it was a pretty good joke, though:
"The Dalai Lama walks into a pizza shop and says, 'Can you make me one with everything?'"
[youtube xlIrI80og8c nolink]
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=819 "18-Jun-11 News -- Europeans devise a 'voluntary' bailout of Greece"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110617b 17-Jun-11 News -- Rise of Gulf Cooperation Council raises concerns in Mideast =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110617b.head 17-Jun-11 News -- Rise of Gulf Cooperation Council raises concerns in Mideast =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110617b.keys Generational Dynamics, Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Iran, Jordan, Morocco, Malaysia, Pakistan, China =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110617b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110617b.date 17-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110617b.txt1 The GCC versus the Arab League =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110617b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Rise of Gulf Cooperation Council raises concerns in Mideast" At this week's meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Iran was the major topic of discussion among the foreign ministers of the six Arab member nations (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait). <#inc ww2010.pic g110616.jpg center "" "GCC meeting in Jeddah on Tuesday (Arab News)"#> In the final communiqué, the ministers said Iran's interference in their affairs comes "through conspiring against their national security, sowing seeds of sectarian discords among these states' citizens," and the actions are a "violation of their sovereignty, independence and principles of good-neighbourliness, as well as relevant international covenants and laws," according to the <#stdurl http://gulfnews.com/news/region/iran/gcc-condemns-iran-s-interference-in-affairs-of-its-member-states-1.822038 "Gulf News."#> They also expressed "deep alarm" about Iran's nuclear program. Iran's response was too cute by half. They refer to the group as the "[P]GCC", which stands for the "[Persian] Gulf Cooperation Council," in order to emphasize that the gulf being referenced is the Persian Gulf, not the Arab Gulf. And an Iranian Parliament MP is quoted by Iran's <#stdurl http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9003260292 "Fars news service"#> as saying, "The repeated claims by a number of tiny Persian Gulf littoral states are aimed at currying favor with their Western masters," and that Iran "will not take heed of such baseless accusations." He added that the PGCC is so reliant on the Western powers that they have not issued even one statement in support of the Palestinian and Lebanese people and they are only concerned about Iran's affairs. Iran's belittling remarks are a sign of the growing influence of the GCC, following the estrangement of Saudi King Abdullah from President Obama, following the latter's humiliation of long-time ally Hosni Mubarak, calling for him to step down in the face of the student protests. This raised the fear the Obama would also call for Saudi King Abdullah to step down, and led to the conclusion that the U.S. could no longer be trusted, especially with regard to the danger from Iran. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110521b ""21-May-11 News -- Saudi Arabia advances Gulf Cooperation Council, further cuts U.S. ties.""#>) The GCC has taken center stage in two of the major crises facing the Arabian Peninsula: The Bahrain uprising, where the GCC sent in troops to quell the rioting, and the Yemen uprising, where the GCC attempted, unsuccessfully so far, to mediate a peaceful conclusion. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Adding Jordan to the GCC" As we've reported, there are ongoing discussions to add Jordan and Morocco as members of the GCC. The addition of Jordan is a good idea, according to an <#stdurl http://arabnews.com/opinion/columns/article454812.ece "Arab News"#> analysis:"The deal, observers say, is based on the fact that Jordan, which has a long history of security cooperation with the GCC, can do a lot to safeguard the stability of these nations, especially in the face of external threats. On the other hand, Gulf leaders are aware of the strategic importance of Jordan, which has the longest border with Israel, and supporting economically it will undoubtedly reflect positively on their own national security during these turbulent times. So it is a win-win exchange. Jordan already has hundreds of thousands of its nationals working in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait. They are mostly skilled and white-collar professionals who have become the driving force behind key sectors in IT, banking, public administration, education, and media, among others. It goes without saying that expat remittances are an important source of foreign currency inflow for Jordan."The addition of Jordan and Morocco to the GCC also provides more police power to suppress unrest, according to <#stdurl http://www.hudson-ny.org/2174/union-of-arab-kingdoms "Mudar Zahran,"#> a Palestinian writer and academic from Jordan:
"On the other hand, both, Jordan and Morocco have a history of pacifying local unrests with their police forces, rather than their armies; these police forces could provide the GCC states with a quick guns-for-hire to suppress unrests and revolts which have already hit some GCC countries such as Bahrain and Oman. Having Jordan joining the GCC would therefore give the cover of legitimacy to Jordan in involving its police force in any GCC country that oppresses protesters. Jordan might find an interest in sending its servicemen to oppress citizens in GCC countries as that might entitle it for more grants from its oil-rich allies who have stopped being so generous with Jordan since 1990 when the late King Hussein politically supported Saddam. Between 1990 and 2003, the year Saddam was toppled, Jordan received free oil from Iraq in exchange of good ties and serving as Iraq's window to the world when it was under UN-imposed trade sanctions. After Saddam was toppled, the new Iraqi government refused to give free oil to Jordan, which has been paying regular market prices for the oil it purchases from the GCC states since then."=inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The GCC versus the Arab League" The GCC is a council of Sunni Muslim nations, specifically targeted against Iran and Shia Muslims. However, there are two other (mostly) Sunni Muslim organization in the Mideast. One is the Arab League, which has traditionally united the Arab countries. But today the Arab League is barely functional, according to an analysis by <#stdurl http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5376.htm "Memri."#> Indeed, the protests in the Arab world, particularly the Egyptian revolution that brought about the ouster of the Mubarak regime and the popular protests now threatening President Bashar Al-Assad's regime in Syria, have created a leadership vacuum in the Arab world. Thus, Jordan and Morocco's acceptance into the GCC is, among other things, an attempt by the Gulf states to make the GCC a new inter-Arab political body that will guide moves in the region and replace the Arab League – thus shifting the center of gravity and decision making in the Arab world to the Gulf region, according to the article. Furthermore,
"It should be noted that, in parallel to the addition of Jordan and Morocco to the GCC, Saudi Arabia has in recent months been working to garner support and aid from additional Sunni countries, namely, Pakistan and Malaysia, in a bid to create a dominant Sunni bloc against Iran. As part of this campaign, Emir Bandar bin Sultan, secretary-general of the Saudi National Security Council, visited both countries in March to meet with heads of state. The meetings appear to have borne fruit: Pakistan and Malaysia have agreed to send troops to Bahrain to help the regime there suppress the anti-regime Shi'ite unrest there – an indication that both countries have in effect joined the Sunni anti-Iranian camp. On March 28, 2011, bin Sultan visited Pakistan and met with Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani. Following the meeting, the former called Pakistan Saudi Arabia's "strategic partner," while Prime Minister Gilani said that Pakistan promised to continue to stand alongside Saudi Arabia in all international forums. He added that Pakistan was "interested in tightening up its strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia."=inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The Axis versus the Allies" Long-time readers of my web site are aware that for years I've been watching the trend lines to determine the lineups in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war. It's been apparent for some time that the "Axis" will consist of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries, while the "Allies" will consist of the U.S., Japan, India, Russia and Israel. Iran has been clearly headed for an alliance with the West. Iran's young people are clearly pro-Western and not particularly anti-Israel. Furthermore, Shia Muslims have historically been allied with Hindus versus Sunni Muslims. Those will be the deciding factors when Iran is forced to choose one side or the other. Some mysteries remain. How will the European countries line up? Perhaps the unfolding Greece crisis will provide some ansers. Where will Egypt and Turkey line up? What about South Korea? The inclusion of "Sunni Muslim countries" on the "Axis" side has always been a bit vague, but now we have some additional information. The GCC members are Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait, and the members-in-waiting are Jordan, Morocco, Pakistan and Malaysia. These countries are not forming an alliance for commerce; it's a Sunni Muslim alliance specifically opposed to Iran and Shia Muslims. We can tentatively assume that the GCC nations will form the core of the Sunni Muslim countries that will be allied with China against the West. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=818 "17-Jun-11 News -- Rise of Gulf Cooperation Council raises concerns in Mideast"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110617 17-Jun-11 World View -- Short-term bailout of Greece is now expected =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110617.head 17-Jun-11 World View -- Short-term bailout of Greece is now expected =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110617.keys Generational Dynamics, Greece, France, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Contagion, Turkey, Syria, China, South China Sea, Prince Harry, Afghanistan, Harvard Business School, Oregon, Suicide Kits =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110617.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110617.date 17-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110617.txt1 Turkey debating invasion of Syria, with support from U.S. =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110617.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Short-term bailout of Greece is now expected" <#inc ww2010.pic g110616b.gif right "" "Greece 2 year bonds at 30% interest (Bloomberg)"#> The yields (interest rates) on Greece's 2 year bonds briefly exceeded 30% on Thursday, before settling down at just 29.69%. Greek and European officials are desperate, and don't know how to stop this gathering disaster. There was lots of talk on Thursday about a partial bailout. French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel will meet in Berlin on Friday, and are expected to put aside their bitter differences to agree, either on Friday or on a scheduled meeting in Luxembourg on Sunday, to agree to provide Greece with the latest tranche of last year's bailout, even though Greece has not met the required conditions. This stopgap will allow Greece to pay its bills through September. Then another meeting will be held on July 11, to come up with a new bailout agreement to carry through 2012. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jbBvPqseyVJyZvBj_X-qMrEBqQcw?docId=CNG.c943dc1aa252ae568d4e98cee17a662c.711 "AFP"#> If Greece doesn't default, then it will be because the EU will renegotiate last year's bailout with much more liberal terms -- or possibly no terms at all beyond "just take the money." Ireland's Finance Minister Michael Noonan is taking advantage of the situation with Greece to change the terms of Ireland's bailout by demanding investor participation. Portugal has not yet demanded to renegotiate its bailout, but that could happen any time. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-16/ireland-snubs-ecb-effort-to-avoid-meltdown-with-threat-on-bank-guarantees.html "Bloomberg"#> "Contagion" from the Greek situation spread to Spain on Thursday, as Spain had to pay investors unsustainably high yields on bonds. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/16/spain-debt-idUSLDE75F0U920110616 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey debating invasion of Syria, with support from U.S." After three months of widespread slaughter, torture and mutilation of peaceful Syrian protesters by security forces of president Bashar al-Assad, Turkey is considering invading Syria to set up a "security zone" or "buffer zone" on Syrian soil along the border separating the two countries. This would be a major escalation of the crisis, and might lead to military conflict between Syrian and Turkish forces. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8580603/Turkey-to-create-military-buffer-zone-within-Syria-for-refugees.html "Telegraph"#> A couple of days ago, I quoted some analysis from Debka that "military and intelligence sources report that Monday, June 13, the US deployed the USS Bataan amphibian air carrier strike vessel opposite Syria's Mediterranean coast with 2,000 marines, 6 war planes, 15 attack helicopters, including new V-22 Ospreys, and 27 choppers for landing forces aboard." I just received the weekly subscriber-only Debka newsletter, forwarded to me by a subscriber, and it provides some clarification. The US warships aren't there for an American invasion of Libya. They're for defensive purposes. According to reports, the Syrians have threatened to fire missiles deep into Turkey, if Turkish troops enter Syria. According to the Debka report, then the US would provide Turkey with the shield of the AEGIS missile interceptors aboard American warships in the Middle East. <#stdurl http://debka.com/article/21030/ "Debka"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China Patrol Ship Heads to Tense South China Sea" China is sending a large non-military patrol boat into waters where the Chinese have previously had confrontations with Vietnamese and Philippine boats. Chinese media reports emphasized that the voyage is aimed at demonstrating Beijing’s resolve to defend its territorial claims. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/China-Patrol-Ship-Heads-to-Tense-South-China-Sea-123986319.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel will do 'everything necessary' to stop Gaza flotilla" Israel will do everything necessary to prevent a planned international flotilla from reaching Gaza, despite the fact the ships will probably not be carrying weapons, a senior military source said. "No ship will get into Gaza," he said. The flotilla is scheduled to set sail before the end of June. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/16/us-palestinians-israel-flotilla-idUSTRE75F5HL20110616 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Prince Harry will return to Afghanistan" Prince Harry will be granted his wish to return to Afghanistan as an Apache attack helicopter pilot after completing his training next year. He was hastily withdrawn from a tour of Helmand in 2008, after his deployment became publicly known. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/prince-harry/8578644/Prince-Harry-to-return-to-Afghanistan.html "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Harvard Business School rejects finance professionals" Harvard Business School's incoming class will have a substantially smaller percentage of finance professionals than in previous years. Instead, a higher number of students will have manufacturing and technology backgrounds. The article doesn't say so, but I believe that one reason for this is that finance has become a criminal profession. Finance professionals created synthetic securities that were mathematically fraudulent, and sold them as AAA-rated investments. Today, they're charging 30% interest rates, and using the money to pay themselves million dollar bonuses. After financiers did similar things in the 1930s, they were hated for decades. The same thing is happening today. <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304778304576378070795647958.html?mod=djemCJ_t "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Oregon outlaws the sale of suicide kits" Oregon may soon outlaw the sale of self-asphyxiation kits. The suicide rate among seniors who have lost their homes, pensions and life savings is increasing, but apparently the Oregon legislature would rather see these people freeze to death in the streets, rather than make their own decisions and control their own lives. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/us-state-votes-to-outlaw-sale-of-suicide-kits/ "Reuters"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=818 "17-Jun-11 News -- Rise of Gulf Cooperation Council raises concerns in Mideast"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110616b 16-Jun-11 News -- Greece's government nears collapse as euro crisis spreads through Europe =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110616b.head 16-Jun-11 News -- Greece's government nears collapse as euro crisis spreads through Europe =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110616b.keys Generational Dynamics, Greece, Antonis Samaras, George Papandreou, bailouts, Ireland, Portugal, Eurogroup =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110616b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110616b.date 16-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110616b.txt1 Interest rates on Greece's 2-year bonds exceed 28% =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110616b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece's government nears collapse as euro crisis spreads through Europe" After a day of chaos, the situation is deteriorating rapidly in the streets of Athens, in the Greek parliament, and among the finance ministers in Brussels. <#inc ww2010.pic g110615.jpg center "" "Anti-austerity rioting in Athens on Wednesday (AP)"#> Early on Wednesday, angry youths hurled petrol bombs at the Finance Ministry and tens of thousands of protesters marched on parliament to oppose government efforts to pass new austerity laws, according to <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/15/us-greece-idUSTRE75E0ZS20110615 "Reuters."#> At the same time, unions representing half the 5-million-strong workforce also launched a nationwide strike, shutting government offices, ports, schools and reducing hospitals to skeleton staff. <#inc ww2010.pic g110615c.jpg right "" "Antonis Samaras (L) and George Papandreou (ANA)"#> In the face of the widespread opposition and violence, Socialist party Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou offered to make way for a national unity government provided it supported EU/IMF bailout plans. But Antonis Samaras, the leader of the opposition conservative New Democracy party, said the conservatives would only take part in a new unity government if it renegotiated the bailout, a condition that's unacceptable to Papandreou. The result was a "political farce of the first degree," according to an opinion column in <#stdurl http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite3_16868_15/06/2011_394829 "Kathimerini."#>
"Papandreou backed down from his earlier commitment on the grounds that Samaras treated the prospect of cooperation between the two mainstream parties as a public relations stunt. The status of Greece’s political system has suffered irreparable damage as a result. The country’s credibility in the European Union has been tarnished. Greek citizens are simply waiting to see the consequences of this amateurish -- some people would say criminal -- management of the current crisis, and of the nation’s future. True to character, Papandreou on Wednesday acted in a highly unconventional manner that resulted in chaos. Sure, his intentions might have been good. It seems certain that his contacts with Samaras were made without prior consultation with his close aides. A “deal” with the New Democracy leader would involve a “renegotiation” of the first and second memorandum -- and that was perhaps not accepted by some of Greece’s international peers. A tragic Papandreou on Wednesday transformed himself from politician into a fatal hero."Papandreou will no longer pursue a unity government, but has promised a cabinet reshuffle on Thursday. Yeah, that oughta work. The people in Athens are furious about the situation they're in. When Greece was granted the first bailout in May of last year, Papandreou demanded severe austerity measures, and promised that this would solve the problem. Now Papandreou is back making even MORE austerity demands -- tax hikes, public sector layoffs, and so forth. How do we know, the Greek people are asking themselves, that Papandreou won't be back a few months from now and demand even MORE austerity? This situation is just loaded with irony. It was perfectly obvious a year ago that Papandreou was lying. In fact, European officials have done nothing BUT lie in the last year. And when EU officials were caught in a series of major lies about Greece a couple of months ago, Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker was quoted as saying, "When it becomes serious, you have to lie," as I reported at the time. So now Papandreou is being called on his lie. Would Greece have been better off if Papandreou had simply told the truth from the beginning? It's impossible to know, of course, but it's hard to believe the situation would be worse. There's an old saying that "If you understand a problem, then you're 90% of the way to solving it." That isn't true, because there are many problems for which no solution exists, even when you understand the problem. This is one of those problems. There is no satisfactory solution in existence. The following graphs of bond yields for Greece, Ireland and Portugal show why: <#inc ww2010.pic g110615b.gif center "" "Greece 2yr, Greece 10yr, Ireland 10yr, Portugal 10yr bond yields (Bloomberg)"#> These graphs show the yields (interest rates) that investors are demanding to purchase government bonds from Greece, Ireland and Portugal. When bond yields go up, it means that the market is increasingly convinced that the bonds are going to default. Last year's bailouts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal were supposed to guarantee that these three countries were out of the woods -- that's what all the politicians promised us. And what's clear from all of these graphs is that the bailouts have made no apparent difference whatsoever. The market has steadily increased bond yields, betting that the countries are all going to default. Last year's bailouts didn't slow this trend at all, and nobody with any sense could possibly believe that the next bailout will make any difference either. Last year's austerity measures didn't help Greece's economy, either. In particular, Greece is unable to meet the conditions it agreed to in return for last year's bailout, and unless it meets those conditions, it will not receive the next 12 billion euro tranche on the bailout at the end of the month. This will force Greece into bankruptcy. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Interest rates on Greece's 2-year bonds exceed 28%" Incredibly, the yields on Greece's 2 year bonds surged above 28% on Wednesday. Other yields surged as well. It's hard to imagine a greater and more immediate crisis for Europe. Europeans are taking sides, with the French and the Germans leading the opposing camps, according to the <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/gilts/8578101/Greek-crisis-exposes-growing-rift-between-France-and-Germany.html "Telegraph."#> The French want the Greeks to impose even deeper austerity measures, no matter how painful they are -- to the Greeks. The Germans don't want to bail out the Greeks at all, but if they have to, they'll do so only if Greece goes through a partial default, in effect making the investors (mostly European and American banks) bear some of the bailout burden. A Eurogroup finance ministers meeting a couple of days ago accomplished nothing. According to <#stdurl http://www.eurointelligence.com/article/article/kicking-the-can-down-to-the-european-summit-and-beyond.html?tx_ttnews[backPid]=901&cHash=09292b605e1d98f7819c8c62960263c9 "EuroIntelligence"#>:
"The pattern is repeating itself. The finance ministers cannot agree, and shift the debate up to the European Council, who will present the miracle of an agreement at next week’s European Council (a stage set that unfortunately creates much uncertainty, and actual damage in the meantime). Germany already seems to be backing down. “We will not do anything against the explicit advice of the ECB”, Steffen Kampeter, a state secretary in Wolfgang Schäuble’s finance ministry yesterday said, according to Handelsblatt. And that means that they will at most agree some fig-leaf private sector involvement. The outcome will be a purely voluntary rescheduling, which is a euphemism for “no rescheduling”, as nobody in their right mind would voluntarily take up any exchange offer, and to the extent they do, the rating agencies, and everybody else, will conclude that they have been forced. At yesterday’s unscheduled eurogroup meeting, Schäuble launched a last-ditch attempt to save his plan, but there was no majority in support. There will be another meeting on Sunday night in Luxembourg ahead of next week’s scheduled meetings, which will be followed by the EU summit. Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy will meet in Berlin on Friday – a meeting that could pave the way for a compromise."In other words, allowing Greece to default in any way will be so disastrous that the Germans will back down and agree to a full-scale bailout -- just give Greece whatever money it takes to pay its bills. I guess I have to agree that that seems to be the most likely outcome in the next two weeks. But I keep coming back to this story because, even more than the situations in Libya and Syria, the situation in Greece could be a major game changer in the next few weeks, no matter what bailout decision is made. The relentlessly increasing bond yields displayed in the graphs above indicate enormous market distortions that the eurozone can't handle much longer. If Germany and France are committed to unlimited free bailout money for Greece, then Germany and France will also be in danger of economic collapse as well. It may well be that the can has been kicked as far down the road as it can go without a real financial crisis -- for Greece, for Europe, for America, and for the world. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=817 "16-Jun-11 News -- Greece's government nears collapse as euro crisis spreads through Europe"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110616 16-Jun-11 World View -- Thailand heads for a major election crisis =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110616.head 16-Jun-11 World View -- Thailand heads for a major election crisis =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110616.keys Generational Dynamics, Thailand, Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin Shinawatra, Lindsey Graham, Gaza flotilla, Turkey, Syria, Ahmet Davutoglu =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110616.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110616.date 16-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110616.txt1 Senator Graham: Relations with Pakistan near breaking point =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110616.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Thailand heads for a major election crisis" <#inc ww2010.pic g110615d.jpg right "" "Yingluck Shinawatra (Spiegel)"#> The fault line between the élite fair-skinned market dominant minority Thai-Chinese and the dark-skinned indigenous Thai-Thai majority laboring class may soon become violent again, after the July 3 election. (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110526b ""26-May-11 News -- Thailand election portends more ethnic clashes""#>) The Thai-Thai hero, Thaksin Shinawatra, who was prime minister before the élites finally sent him into exile, is about to make a comeback. His sister Yingluck is leading in the polls, and a Yingluck victory would bring Thaksin back in triumph. However, the Commander-in-Chief of the Royal Thai Army, made a veiled threat of an army coup if Yingluck wins. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,768492,00.html#ref=nlint "Spiegel"#> and <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/southeast/Thai-Army-Chief-Issues-Veiled-Election-Endorsement-123902419.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Senator Graham: Relations with Pakistan near breaking point" Washington politicians are furious that Pakistan has arrested several informants who helped the CIA find Osama bin Laden, allowing America's Navy Seals to fly into Pakistan - without permission -- and get him. While the U.S. wants Pakistan to go after the support network which allowed bin Laden to hide in plain sight, Pakistan instead has arrested and interrogated 5 people suspected of helping the CIA pull off the raid. The Pakistanis have been pushing America away ever since they were humiliated by the raid, and Republican Senator Lindsey Graham says that relations with Pakistan are near the breaking point. <#stdurl http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/06/15/eveningnews/main20071393.shtml "CBS News"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Small business hiring at a halt" A survey by the National Federation of Independent Business says that small business hiring prospects by small businesses are some of the worst in history. Small business employ half of the country's private sector workers. <#stdurl http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/15/business/15jobs.html "NY Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Gaza flotilla is set to sail, with or without Turkey's participation" Turkey had planned to give full support to a new flotilla whose objective would be to break Israel's sea blockade of Gaza. Nine Turks were killed on a Gaza flotilla a year ago. However, Turkey may not participate in the new flotilla because of the crisis situation in Syria. <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/gaza-flotilla-still-set-to-sail-with-or-without-ihh-1.367951 "Haaretz"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey promises to keep border with Syria open to refugees" Syrian refugees keep pouring into Turkey to escape the Syrian army massacres going on in the north of Syria. Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu visited two large refugee camps near Turkey's border with Syria. In response to a question, he said, "For us, the Syrians are people who have a common future and destiny with us. Therefore, it is out of the question to close the door to our Syrian brothers after 10,000 [people]. However, when this turns into a big wave, it also has the potential to become a regional and an international matter." <#stdurl http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=turkish-fm-visits-refugee-camps-meets-syria-envoy-2011-06-15 "Hurriyet"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.S. building a secret drone base in Persian Gulf region" Preparing for the possibility of an al-Qaeda takeover of Yemen, the U.S. is building a secret CIA air base in an undisclosed location in the Persian Gulf region to target terrorists in Yemen. The base will be used to launch armed unmanned drones against terrorist targets, and will be completed by the end of the year. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g8HwxL2HlvCgfyN8VcG97KeUbAKQ?docId=e929d4c3868b4f2fb29ecc17416846ac "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Three people arrested for illegally feeding the homeless" Three members of Orlando's Food not Bombs were arrested Wednesday for the crime of feeding homeless people. <#stdurl http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/crime/os-homeless-feedings-arrests-20110601,0,7226362.story "Orlando (Florida) Sentinel"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=817 "16-Jun-11 News -- Greece's government nears collapse as euro crisis spreads through Europe"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110615b 15-Jun-11 News -- Syria pursues scorched earth policy, amid rumors of U.S. military intervention =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110615b.head 15-Jun-11 News -- Syria pursues scorched earth policy, amid rumors of U.S. military intervention =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110615b.keys Generational Dynamics, Syria, USS Monterey, Black Sea, USS Bataan, Alawi, Bashad al-Assad, Turkey, Iran, Hizbollah =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110615b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110615b.date 15-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110615b.txt1 US naval movements lead to rumors of intervention =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110615b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria pursues scorched earth policy, amid rumors of U.S. military intervention" As thousands of families in northern Syria flee from their homes, many across the border into Turkey, army tanks widened the military campaign to crush protests against President Bashar al-Assad, according to <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/14/us-syria-idUSLDE73N02P20110614 "Reuters."#> More than 8,500 Syrians have now fled to refugee camps in Turkey. <#inc ww2010.pic g110614.jpg center "" "USS Bataan amphibian air carrier strike vessel"#> Fleeing refugees are reporting that the army is shooting at anything that moves, and that the troops are burning land and crops in a scorched earth policy to subdue people of the region after large protests against iron-fisted rule. Assad is a member of Alawi religious sect followed by 10% of Syria's population. Alawism is a belief system that has merged Christianity with many Muslim beliefs, as well as traditional pre-Islamic beliefs. 70% of the army is made up of 200,000-300,000 Sunni Muslim conscripts, and there have been some reports that Sunni conscripts are defecting because they don't want to fire on peaceful, unarmed Syrian protesters. But according to commentary that I heard on al-Jazeera on Tuesday, it would be a mistake to assume that a major mutiny is near. Although most of the army is Sunni, the Alawi divisions have the best training and hardware, and they will remain loyal to Assad. There is a lot of pressure for the Sunnis to abandon the regime and join the protesters, but this does not present much of a challenge to the regime unless a rebel army can be fashioned out of these defections, as happened in Libya. A successful challenge would require a critical mass of defectors, and a territory under rebel control, like Benghazi in Libya. The Assad regime is moving quickly to shore up loyalty among its upper ranks, and to keep control of the entire country. As long as even a portion of the army remains loyal, as has happened in Libya, the Assad regime will stay in place. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "US naval movements lead to rumors of intervention" <#inc ww2010.pic g110614b.gif right "" "Black Sea region"#> On Sunday, Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a somewhat <#stdurl http://www.ln.mid.ru/bdomp/brp_4.nsf/e78a48070f128a7b43256999005bcbb3/6db9f0f3bfc53462c32578af004c7474!OpenDocument "confused statement"#> regarding the deployment of the USS Monterey in the Black Sea.
"The entry of the US Navy’s Aegis BMD-equipped Monterey cruiser into the Black Sea to participate in the Ukrainian-US Sea Breeze 2011 exercises has raised several questions for us. The Monterey was sent to European waters as part of the US administration’s Phased Adaptive Approach to building the European segment of its global missile defense system. Phase 1 provides for the deployment in the Adriatic, Aegean and Mediterranean Seas of a group of American ships meant to protect Southern Europe from hypothetical missile threats. According to the official US version, they can also be forward deployed to the Black Sea in case of need, such as aggravation of the situation in the region. While leaving aside the unresolved question about the architecture of a possible European missile defense system as per the Russia-NATO Lisbon summit decisions, we would like to understand just what the US command meant by “aggravation” as it moved the main striking unit of the emerging territorial missile defense system of the North Atlantic Alliance from the Mediterranean to the east. If we are talking about the usual “visit” to this highly sensitive region, why did they choose a ship armed with this particular version of weapons? And what role was assigned to the Monterey anti-missiles by the scenario of the Sea Breeze 2011 exercise during which “an anti-piracy operation by NATO standards” was being tested and improved?"There have been several commentaries on this Russian "overreaction" to the participation of the Monterez in the annual joint U.S.-Ukraine military exercises, this year named Sea Breeze 2011. And all of the commentaries indicate that this is less about a missile system, and more about Syria. According to an analysis by senior Indian diplomat M K Bhadrakumar in the <#stdurl http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MF14Ak02.html "Asia Times,"#> the purpose of deploying the Monterey in the Black Sea is to pressure Russia to back down from its defense of Assad in Syria. Russia has made it clear that it will oppose any U.N. Security Council resolution on Syria, no matter how weak. Russia has a Mediterranean naval base in Syria, and doesn't want to put that at risk, as would happen with a regime change. But the increasing brutality of the Assad's regime has turned Turkey against Assad, and presents Russia with a big problem:
"By improving ties with Turkey in the past decade, Moscow had been hoping that Ankara would gradually move toward an independent foreign policy. The Kremlin's expectation was that the two countries could get together and form a condominium over the Black Sea. But as events unfold, it is becoming clear that Ankara is reverting to its earlier priorities as a NATO country and US's pre-eminent partner in the region. Ankara cannot be faulted: it made a shrewd assessment and drew a balance sheet concluding that its interests are best served by identifying with the Western move to effect a regime change in Syria. Additionally, Ankara finds it profitable that it identifies with the Saudi approach to the upheaval in the Middle East. The wealth Arabs in the oil-rich countries of the Persian Gulf are willing to send their "green money" to Turkey. Ankara also shares Saudi misgivings about Iran's rise as regional power."This is resulting in enormous pressure on Russia to turn against Assad, but either way, these events are giving the U.S. the upper hand over Russia in the region. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Preparations for US military intervention in Syria" According to an analysis by <#stdurl http://www.debka.com/article/21026/ "Debka,"#> an analyst group that has contacts within Israeli and American intelligence but sometimes gets things wrong, the deployment of the Monterey in the Black Sea is just one part of a major realignment of American forces in the region. The purpose of this redeployment is to be prepared in case a decision is made at some point in the future for U.S. military intervention in Syria.
"debkafile's military and intelligence sources report that Monday, June 13, the US deployed the USS Bataan amphibian air carrier strike vessel opposite Syria's Mediterranean coast with 2,000 marines, 6 war planes, 15 attack helicopters, including new V-22 Ospreys, and 27 choppers for landing forces aboard.Also this week, US naval units went operational in the Aegean, Adriatic and Black Seas as part of the joint US-Ukrainian Sea Breeze 2011 exercise. ... This huge concentration of naval missile interceptor units looks like preparations by Washington for the contingency of Iran, Syria and Hizballah letting loose with surface missiles against US and Israeli targets in the event of US military intervention to stop the anti-opposition slaughter underway in Syria."According to the analysis, the threat of US military intervention in Syria is being taken seriously by Iran and by Hizbollah, Assad's two major allies in the region. Furthermore, although Turkey's Prime Minister Tayyep Erdogan does not wish to be seen working closely with the U.S. military, it's believed that Washington is coordinating its military movements with Turkey, and that Erdogan quietly agreed to place Turkish bases at US disposal for an operation in Syria. Soooooooooooooo, where is all this going? Barack Obama promised us that if he were elected President, then he would make sure that we would no longer be fighting in two foreign wars. As we appear to be approaching war number 4, it looks like that campaign promise is being kept. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=816 "15-Jun-11 News -- Syria pursues scorched earth policy, amid rumors of U.S. military intervention"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110615 15-Jun-11 World View -- Moody's puts France's banks on review over Greece =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110615.head 15-Jun-11 World View -- Moody's puts France's banks on review over Greece =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110615.keys Generational Dynamics, Moody's, Greece, France, Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Vietnam, South China Sea, Philippines, Hamas, Fatah, Palestinian Authority =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110615.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110615.date 15-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110615.txt1 Anti-government protesters flood Yemen's cities =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110615.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Anti-government protesters flood Yemen's cities" <#inc ww2010.pic g110614c.jpg right "" "Female protester with Arabic words 'The Revolution Youths' on her hands (AP)"#> Hundreds of thousands of Yemen protesters demonstrated in nearly every major city of the country on Tuesday, demanding trial for the family and close aides of the president Ali Abdullah Saleh. These are the largest protests since a bombing attack sent Salah to Saudi Arabia to recover. The US State Dept. is worried that the increasing unrest in Yemen could fuel connections between al-Qaida-linked militants there and al-Shabab insurgents in Somalia. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jNtrLh1WryZUkJAaVJ1PazYYfURQ?docId=f0faf2ec9425443fa21371fdde1dd48b "AP"#> Saleh has reportedly developed a "throat problem," although his overall condition is stable. The exact nature of the throat problem was not disclosed. The June 3 attack left much of his body badly burned. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g1b-QAscg7t9tjdv6rLj5hWcqwog?docId=4e645e2013564cb38c4224f7d949de16 "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Moody's puts France's banks on review over Greece" The euro crisis worsened on Tuesday, after a special meeting of euro zone finance ministers failed to make headway on the terms of the bailout of Greece: The Germans insist that Greece should have to go into some kind of default, and the ECB says that any default, by any name, would be a disaster for everyone. Now the Moody's Investors Service is placing France's three top banks on review for possible downgrade, because these banks have big exposure and would lose money if Greece defaulted. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/15/markets-ratings-frenchbanks-idUSL3E7HF0A420110615 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Vietnam wants to rename the 'South China Sea'" With the dispute over sovereignty of the islands in the South China Sea growing more bitter every day, Vietnam would like to propose a simple solution: Change the name of the South China Sea to the "Southeast Asia Sea." However, the Philippines has another proposal: When people keep referring to the South China Sea, there is a subliminal message that this sea belongs to a country whose name appears in the name. We in the Philippines should call it West Philippine Sea." <#stdurl http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/china/110614/south-china-sea-china-vs-vietnam "Global Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Hamas, Fatah reach deal on makeup of unity government" This is one of these strange stories where the headline says one thing, and the story says something else. Fatah and Hamas representatives say that they'll be announcing a unity government next week, but the text of the story reveals that there's very little agreement on the makeup of the government, especially the choice of Prime Minister. There's also concern that the West will cut off aid to the Palestinians, depending on the people in the government. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=224992 "Jerusalem Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Arab states not keeping aid promises to Palestinians" The Palestinian Authority (PA) is claiming that its having difficulty paying its employees because Arab states are not giving it the financial aid that they promised it. In 2010, he said, the PA only received $280 million of the $960 million promised by the Arabs. In 2011, which is almost half over, it has received no money at all. <#stdurl http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/144909 "Israel National News"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=816 "15-Jun-11 News -- Syria pursues scorched earth policy, amid rumors of U.S. military intervention"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110614b 14-Jun-11 News -- Revisiting the 'Principle of Maximum Ruin' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110614b.head 14-Jun-11 News -- Revisiting the 'Principle of Maximum Ruin' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110614b.keys Generational Dynamics, Bruce Berkowitz, Kenneth Heebner, Ben Miller, Principle of Maximum Ruin, Steve Keen, Maginot Line =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110614b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110614b.date 14-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110614b.txt1 Economics of the Maginot Line =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110614b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Revisiting the 'Principle of Maximum Ruin'" Hey kids, what time is it? It's time to revisit the "Principle of Maximum Ruin." The same principle applies today to America, to Europe and to China. If you listen to TV or read the newspaper, then you know that mainstream economists, politicians and analysts have been predicting an improving economy for the next quarter each quarter for the last four years. They've been predicting that housing prices would go up next quarter, for each of the last 12-16 quarters. <#inc ww2010.pic g110613a.jpg center "" "Berkowitz, Heebner, Miller funds down 11-12% this year (Bloomberg)"#> An item on Bloomberg TV on Monday morning about three major investment funds shows how dangerous such predictions are to the average investor. Here's the report that accompanied the screen shot above (my transcription):
"[We're seeing] a 'soft patch' in the economy. This has taken the returns of the 3 of the most well known stock pickers in the market. We're talking about Bruce Berkowitz, Kenneth Heebner and Ben Miller, each of them posting losses of about 11-12%. so far this year, for the worst big fund performance tracked by Morningstar. The problem is that they all made sizable bets on an economic recovery. Berkowitz has about 74% of his funds in financial stocks, Bill Miller about a third in financials. Heebner has bet large on automakers, and those groups are all down at double digit percentages this year."Several years ago, I formulated the concept of the "Principle of Maximum Ruin," after reading the following passage from John Kenneth Galbraith's 1954 book The Great Crash - 1929. It describes what happened in the years following 1929:
"A common feature of all these earlier troubles [previous panics] was that having happened they were over. The worst was reasonably recognizable as such. The singular feature of the great crash of 1929 was that the worst continued to worsen. What looked one day like the end proved on the next day to have been only the beginning. Nothing could have been more ingeniously designed to maximize the suffering, and also to insure that as few as possible escaped the common misfortune. The fortunate speculator who had funds to answer the first margin call presently got another and equally urgent one, and if he met that there would still be another. In the end all the money he had was extracted from him and lost. The man with the smart money, who was safely out of the market when the first crash came, naturally went back in to pick up bargains. ... The bargains then suffered a ruinous fall. Even the man who waited out all of October and all of November, who saw the volume of trading return to normal and saw Wall Street become as placid as a produce market, and who then bought common stocks would see their value drop to a third or fourth of the purchase price in the next twenty-four months. ... The ruthlessness of [the stock market was] remarkable." (p. 108)Based on this passage, which I've quoted many times, I began referring to the Principle of Maximum Ruin. During a financial crash following the implosion of a generational credit bubble, the markets act in an incredibly ingenious manner, to ruin the maximum number of people to the maximum extent possible. That's what Galbraith is describing. Today we're seeing the same thing happen again. When President Herbert Hoover predicted that "Prosperity is just around the corner," it wasn't because he was a stupid man. He was listening to economists of the day who advised him. When President Barack Obama scheduled his "Summer of Growth" political tour a year ago, he was listening to his own economic aides. And it's not just Democrats who are lying. I heard Republican candidate Tim Pawlenty predict that U.S. economic growth will exceed 6% per year for next few years, something that's utter nonsense. Investors in funds by Berkowitz, Heebner and Miller have lost a great deal of money, and it's not over. They depended on what they heard from the President and his advisers, and what they heard from "experts" on CNBC and Bloomberg TV who earn their seven-figure salaries by lying about price/earnings ratios and telling everyone that it's ok to buy stocks and pay brokers' commissions. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Economics of the Maginot Line" These erroneous predictions are based on mainstream macroeconomic models using data from the 1970s and 1980s. This is the "economics of the Maginot Line," as one commentator said, because you're assuming static data at a time of dynamic changes. As I've pointed out many times, the 70s-80s were dominated by generations of people who had lived through and survived the Great Depression, and so were extremely risk-averse. Those generations are long gone, and it's absurd to apply those static models to today's realities. Generational Dynamics is to macroeconomics as macroeconomics is to microeconomics. Macroeconomics models aggregate microeconomics models over the entire population, and Generational Dynamics models aggregate macroeconomic models over time. Macroeconomics models are completely static in time, and economists assume that the same macroeconomics model that worked in the 70s and 80s also work today, an assumption which is completely absurd on its face. As I've pointed out many times, economists have been consistently wrong about everything, at least since 1995. They didn't predict and can't explain the 1990s tech bubble, the real estate and credit bubbles, the financial crisis since 2007, where we are today, and what's coming next year. Their predictions are no better than flipping a coin. A web site reader has called my attention to a paper by economist Steve Keen called <#stdurl http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/DudeWheresMyRecovery.pdf "Dude! Where’s My Recovery? (PDF)."#> The following graph from the paper contrasts the prediction of economic growth from the January 2009 Economic Report of the President (ERP 2009) versus reality: <#inc ww2010.pic g110613b.gif center "" "Actual versus predicted GDP"#> In the above graph, the blue rectangle is the GDP predicted by the Economic Report of the President in 2009, while the red shows the actual results. Keen's paper is of great interest to me because it answers an important question for Generational Dynamics theory. I've been saying for years that mainstream economists have erroneously been using data from different generations (Great Depression survivors) in the models they use to analyze today's economy, and that error was causing them to get everything wrong. But I never knew the precise error that the mainstream economists were making, and Keen's paper describes it in detail. According to Keen, mainstream macroeconomic models do not take private debt into account. Keen quotes both Ben Bernanke and Paul Krugman as justifying this omission for the following reason:
"Neoclassical economists ignore the level of private debt, on the basis of the à priori argument that “one man’s liability is another man’s asset”, so that the aggregate level of debt has no macroeconomic impact. They reason that the increase in the debtor’s spending power is offset by the fall in the lender’s spending power, and there is therefore no change to aggregate demand."In other words, you can ignore private debt because it cancels out. If I owe you $1000, then I have $1000 less, and you have $1000 more, and so the amounts cancel out and shouldn't affect the macroeconomic models. Now, before going on with Keen's analysis, let me say how taken aback I am by this. To say that private debt can be ignored because it gets canceled out is near the top of the greatest statements of economic idiocy that I've heard. The amounts definitely do NOT cancel out. Suppose I have $1,000 and you have nothing. I deposit the $1,000 in the bank, and you borrow the $1,000 from the bank. Then $1,000 has turned into $2,000. That is, I still have $1,000 (it's in my bank account), and you have $1,000 (it's in your pocket). This is not a joke, or a gimmick, or a trick scenario. This is how money is "created" these days. When you purchase a corporate bond for $1,000, then the corporation gets $1,000 and you get a piece of paper, an asset, worth $1,000. You can't use the bond to buy groceries, but you can use it as collateral for a loan to get cash with which to buy groceries. Now multiply that little transaction by a trillion transactions, and you can see how tens or hundreds of trillions of dollars were created during the credit bubble. And when that credit bubble burst, then there was less money in the world every day. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Steve Keen's 'Credit Accelerator'" Steve Keen turns my informal exposition into a formal analysis by adopting the phrase "Credit Accelerator":
"The Credit Accelerator at any point in time is the change in the change in debt over previous year, divided by the GDP figure for that point in time."He points out that there are two sources of money:
"[T]here are two sources of money: incomes, and the change in debt. The second factor is ignored by neoclassical economics, but is vital to understanding a capitalist economy. Aggregate demand is therefore equal to Aggregate Supply plus the change in debt."Keen goes on to distinguish between a "well-functioning economy" versus a "Ponzi Scheme economy":
"Therefore the rate of change of asset prices is related to the acceleration of debt. ... Our great misfortune is that accelerating debt hasn’t been primarily used for that purpose, but has instead financed asset price bubbles. There isn’t a one-to-one link between accelerating debt and asset price rises: some of the borrowed money drives up production (think SUVs during the boom), consumer prices, the fraction of existing assets sold, and the production of new assets (think McMansions during the boom). But the more the economy becomes a disguised Ponzi Scheme, the more the acceleration of debt turns up in rising asset prices. As Schumpeter’s analysis shows, accelerating debt should lead change in output in a well-functioning economy; we unfortunately live in a Ponzi economy where accelerating debt leads to asset price bubbles. In a well-functioning economy, periods of acceleration of debt would be followed by periods of deceleration, so that the ratio of debt to GDP cycled but did not rise over time. In a Ponzi economy, the acceleration of debt remains positive most of the time, leading not merely to cycles in the debt to GDP ratio, but a secular trend towards rising debt. When that trend exhausts itself, a Depression ensues— which is where we are now. Deleveraging replaces rising debt, the debt to GDP ratio falls, and debt starts to reduce aggregate demand rather than increase it as happens during a boom."As I said above, Keen's analysis fills in a gap in Generational Dynamics theory, by describing exactly where the 1970s macroeconomic models go wrong in the 2000s. Keen doesn't relate his analysis to generational theory, but it's this transition from a "well-functioning economy" to a "Ponzi economy" that occurs as the survivors of the previous financial crisis (the Great Depression) all disappear, leaving behind younger generations that have no fear of unlimited debt acceleration. The "Principle of Maximum Ruin" says that these young generations have no fear of accelerating debt until the trend exhausts itself, causing them to lose everything in a new Depression. As Keen points out, this lesson has not yet been learned, and the worst of the financial crisis is yet to come. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=815 "14-Jun-11 News -- Revisiting the 'Principle of Maximum Ruin'"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110614 14-Jun-11 World View -- Vietnam escalates South China Sea dispute with China =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110614.head 14-Jun-11 World View -- Vietnam escalates South China Sea dispute with China =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110614.keys Generational Dynamics, Vietnam, Hanoi, China, South China Sea, Jim Webb, Germany, Libya, Transitional National Council, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, S&P, Greece, Lebanon, Hizbollah =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110614.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110614.date 14-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110614.txt1 Va. Senator Jim Webb urges U.S. action in South China Sea dispute =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110614.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Vietnam escalates South China Sea dispute with China" <#inc ww2010.pic g110613c.jpg right "" "Anti-China protesters in front of the Chinese embassy in Hanoi (AFP)"#> Vietnam’s navy has conducted live-fire artillery drills off the country’s central coast, in a challenge to China's claims of sovereignty over almost all of the South China Sea. Vietnamese government officials called the exercises "routine training," but Chinese state media, quoting academics, strongly criticized the drills as "a military show of force to defy Beijing." This is an escalation because it's the first time that military vessels have been brought into the conflict. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/southeast/Vietnam-Mounts-Artillery-Drill-Amid-Tensions-With-China-123738804.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Vietnam reduces imports of China's fruits and vegetables" Vietnamese consumers are turning their backs on fresh fruits and vegetables from China, giving quality issues, food safety concerns and cost as reasons. For example, Chinese fruits accounted for 30% of imported fruits sold at the market six years ago. That share has shrunk to less than 10% in May 2011. <#stdurl http://www.fruitnet.com/content.aspx?ttid=14&cid=10962 "FruitNet"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Va. Senator Jim Webb urges U.S. action in South China Sea dispute" Virginia Democratic Sen. Jim Webb said Monday that the U.S. should take action to make clear it opposes use of force by China in asserting its territorial claims in the South China Sea. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jvbyPmPGTjJqPv28WpGAfgc4_SgA?docId=2b7b5d18f03d47b78c3f717f7e74c387 "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Riot police rush to quell migrant worker riot in southern China" Riot police poured into a southern Chinese factory town crowded with migrant workers on Monday to quell a riot by 1,000 protesters. Hong Kong television showed crowds of workers, many from the rural southwestern province of Sichuan running through the streets of Zengcheng in Guangdong province over the weekend. The rioters smashed windows, set fire to government buildings and overturned police vehicles. China has tens of thousands of "mass incidents" every year, any one of which would be world news if it occurred in the U.S. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/13/us-china-labour-unrest-idUSTRE75C0KM20110613 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Germany Gives Diplomatic Recognition to Libyan Rebels" <#inc ww2010.pic g110613d.jpg right "" "German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle (L) shakes hands with rebel council members in Benghazi (Reuters)"#> Germany on Monday officially recognized Libya's rebel council as the legitimate representative of the Libyan people. Germany joins several other nations in recognizing the rebel Transitional National Council including France, Italy, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The Obama administration is supporting the rebel cause but has stopped short of recognition. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Germany-Gives-Diplomatic-Recognition-to-Libyan-Rebels-123756209.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Who tried to kill Yemen's president Saleh?" An FBI forensics team arrived in Sanaa, Yemen's capital, last week to investigate the attempted assassination of Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who is now convalescing in Saudi Arabia. Evidence indicates that the explosion was from a bomb planted inside the mosque where Saleh was praying, not by a mortar shell or rocket, as was initially reported. This indicates that someone in Saleh's inner circle was the perpetrator. Suspicion is falling on Gen. Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, who publicly defected from the Saleh regime three days after snipers gunned down peaceful protesters in Sanaa, killing more than 50 people. Ali Mohsen is the country's most powerful military leader and a distant cousin of Saleh. <#stdurl http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/06/13/who_tried_to_kill_ali_abdullah_saleh "Foreign Policy"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece looks increasingly likely to default" S&P has further lowered Greece's debt rating three notches, making it the lowest rated country in the world, putting it below Ecuador, Jamaica, Pakistan and Grenada. S&P said that European policymakers looked increasingly likely to impose some kind of restructuring of Greek debt, and that, "In our view, any such transactions would likely be on terms less favorable than the debt being refinanced, which we, in turn, would view as a de facto default according to Standard & Poor's published criteria." However, enormous pressure is increasing on European officials to bail out Greece and avoid default by the end of June. However, German politicians are opposing any bailout of Greece that doesn't impose some sort of default. The ECB has predicted that any kind of default would be disastrous for everyone. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/13/us-greece-ratings-sandp-idUSN1312685920110613 "Reuters"#> and <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-12/trichet-s-cold-war-with-germany-risks-damage-that-may-force-compromise.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "US reacts to Lebanon's new government, dominated by Hizbollah" Lebanon announced a new government with a 30-member cabinet dominated by Hizbollah and its allies. Hizbollah is considered to be a terrorist group by many in the West. State Department spokesman Mark Toner said, "We'll judge it by its actions. What's important in our mind is that the new Lebanese government abides by the Lebanese constitution, that it renounces violence, including efforts to exact retribution against former government officials, and lives up to all its international obligations." <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hBhFbzAj9B6zgx8A2lpYNChqkn5g?docId=CNG.e59fc62cfa8bb03e475fc4d96b489512.ab1 "AFP"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=815 "14-Jun-11 News -- Revisiting the 'Principle of Maximum Ruin'"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110613b 13-Jun-11 News -- Bahrain's Grand Prix race postponed, despite thousands rallying =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110613b.head 13-Jun-11 News -- Bahrain's Grand Prix race postponed, despite thousands rallying =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110613b.keys Generational Dynamics, Bahrain, Formula One, Grand Prix, Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA), U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110613b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110613b.date 13-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110613b.txt1 Morals versus commercial interests =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110613b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Bahrain's Grand Prix race postponed, despite thousands rallying" On Saturday, some 10,000 protesters crowded Pearl Square in Manama, the capital of Bahrain, for the first mass protest since March, according to <#stdurl http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2077140,00.html "AP."#> There was little regime violence when compared to past massacres, but even so, the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA) announced that the Formula One Grand Prix race that was scheduled for Bahrain in October would be postponed until next year. <#inc ww2010.pic g110612.jpg center "" "Manama's Pearl Square after March 15 protests. The beautiful Pearl monument was torn down by the regime on March 18, because it was thought to be encouraging protests."#> The protests began in February, after similar protests in Tunisia and Egypt had caused long-time leaders in both those countries to step down. At that time, word came out of both Bahrain and Saudi Arabia that under no circumstances would protesters be permitted bring down the Al Khalifa family, Bahrain's monarchy. The Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) sent 1,500 troops into Bahrain to take over non-combat roles, so that Bahrain's security forces would be freed to carry out bloody massacres, arrests and tortures against peaceful protesters. Bahrain has a Sunni Muslim government, although the country's population is 2/3 Shia Muslim, so almost all of the massacres, arrests and tortures were directed at Shia Muslims. Although Shia and Sunni Muslims have had good relations for many years, the protests have created a wide sectarian divide, according to <#stdurl http://af.reuters.com/article/tunisiaNews/idAFLDE74P22720110609 "Reuters."#> Thus, it's feared that there could be new violence in Bahrain at any time. Indeed, a top Bahraini Shia cleric said that trials of dozens of people and the breaking up of Shia religious marches were dragging the country towards destruction, not reconciliation, according to <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/shiite-cleric-warns-bahrain-nearing-abyss/ "Reuters."#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Morals versus commercial interests" <#inc ww2010.pic g110612b.jpg right "" "Jenson Button wins the Canadian Grand Prix on Sunday in an upset in the pouring rain (AP)"#> The opening race of Bahrain's Grand Prix had originally been scheduled for March 13, but the FIA canceled it on February 21 because of the protests and the massacres. Then, much to everyone's surprise, on June 4 the FIA reinstated the Bahrain Grand Prix, scheduling it for October 30, according to the <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/jun/04/bahrain-grand-prix-formula-one "Guardian."#> The Formula One commercial rights holder, Bernie Ecclestone, said the following:
"It's obvious that everybody feels they need to be safe when we get there. In the end we'll have to wait and see what happens in Bahrain. If there is peace and no problems then I suppose the teams will be all right."Officials in Bahrain were thrilled:
"By the time the grand prix arrives we will be able to remind the world about Bahrain at its best. The Bahrain Grand Prix has always been a source of national pride and it is an event than transcends politics. Its positive effect will be felt throughout the country."However, activist groups weren't pleased, especially because it appeared that the decision had been made for commercial reasons:
"Formula One's decision is a kick in the teeth for the Bahraini people. Now F1, plus Red Bull, McLaren, Ferrari, and every other team will be directly linked with a bloody crackdown that's ruined the lives of hundreds of innocent people."However, on Sunday, the FIA once again canceled the October Grand Prix in Bahrain, but according to <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2011/jun/12/bahrain-grand-prix-morals "The Guardian,"#> the new cancellation had nothing to do with morals:
"What we can say with confidence is that the ultimate decision to cancel the reinstatement had nothing to do with Formula One's distress over the deaths of more than 30 Bahrainis, the alleged arrests of many circuit employees because they happened to be of the wrong Islamic denomination, or the detaining of doctors and nurses who treated those injured in the protests and were thus deemed to have acted against the government's interests. ... Instead the decision was forced upon the FIA by image-conscious sponsors and by the teams' reluctance to make an extra long-haul trip which would shorten their hard-worked staffs' holidays."In many ways, the tension between morals and commercial interests reflects the tension between morals and political interests that many countries, including the U.S., have felt in dealing with the situation in Bahrain. Manama is the headquarters of the U.S. Navy's <#stdurl http://www.cusnc.navy.mil/ "Fifth Fleet,"#> with responsibility for the area stretching from the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, including the Arabian Sea and the entire Persian Gulf. There was little or no violence in Saturday's protests. A lot of people will be relieved if there isn't any more sectarian violence. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=814 "13-Jun-11 News -- Bahrain's Grand Prix race postponed, despite thousands rallying"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110613 13-Jun-11 World View -- Pro-Assad crowd attacks Turkey's embassy in Damascus =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110613.head 13-Jun-11 World View -- Pro-Assad crowd attacks Turkey's embassy in Damascus =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110613.keys Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Pakistan, Taliban, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Fatah, Hamas =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110613.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110613.date 13-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110613.txt1 Recep Erdogan wins by a landslide in Turkey =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110613.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pro-Assad crowd attacks Turkey's embassy in Damascus" <#inc ww2010.pic g110612c.jpg right "" "Syrian refugees living in tents in refugee camp in Yayladagi, Turkey (Reuters)"#> Some 2,000 supporters of the Assad regime in Syria rallied on Sunday near Turkey's embassy in Damascus, trying to bring down the Turkish flag. The attempt was repelled by embassy security and Syrian security forces. The protesters are angered because Turkey is providing protection to over 5,000 refugees in the refugee camp in Yayladagi. <#stdurl http://www.todayszaman.com/news-247116-pro-assad-crowd-attacks-turkish-embassy-in-syria.html "Zaman"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Assad likely to succeed in bid to quell Syria protests" Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is operating on the assumptions that time is on his side and that even if Turkey or other states sever ties with Syria it will still be able to count on cooperation from Iraq, Iran and Russia. Another assumption, presumably correct, is that Syria will not be subject to a Libya-style international military onslaught. This analysis concludes that Assad is likely to survive the current protests. <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/assad-likely-to-succeed-in-bid-to-quell-syria-protests-1.367160 "Haaretz"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Recep Erdogan wins by a landslide in Turkey" <#inc ww2010.pic g110612d.jpg right "" "Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Sunday"#> Recep Tayyip Erdogan has become the most successful prime minister in the history of Turkey's multiparty system after a landslide victory at the country's general election, though the result falls short of the two-thirds majority needed to rewrite Turkey's 1982 military constitution without having to consult parliament. His centre-right Justice and Development party (AKP -- pronounced "aak party" or "ay-kay party"), in power since 2002, won 49.9% of all votes, giving it 325 seats in parliament. Journalist Oral Çalislar said: "Prime minister Erdogan has already indicated that after the elections, the honeymoon with Syria will be over. Turkey will take a much harder stance, and side with the EU to solve the Syrian problem." The handling of Turkey's large Kurdish minority will also be a key issue. <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/13/recep-erdogan-turkey-general-election "Guardian"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iran's security forces attack silent rally with batons and teargas" It's the two-year anniversary of the alleged rigged reelection of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president of Iran, and tens of thousands of people came out on the streets of Tehran for a silent protest. According to one protester, "People were pretending that they were in the streets for a walk but it was obvious that they were out in protest to mark the rigged election in 2009." Security forces attacked the crowd with batons and teargas, and arrested dozens. <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/12/iranian-security-forces-rally-tehran "Guardian"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pakistan Taliban complain of being 'maligned' after suicide bombing" Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Pakistan's Taliban terrorist group, is complaining of being "maligned" by "foreign secret agencies" who are blaming TTP for the twin suicide bomb blasts in Peshawar that killed 39 people and injured dozens on Saturday. The attack was one of the deadliest since the killing of Osama bin Laden, for which TTP has promised revenge. A TTP spokesman said, "We did not carry out this attack in Peshawar. It is an attempt by foreign secret agencies who are doing it to malign us." <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hNGcfcz1OgljyTAKJVQxKKBCcpGA?docId=CNG.a3480941b264f97114dc745e57a0e3ca.c71 "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Palestinian reconciliation jeopardized by choice of unity head" After <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110612b "yesterday's news"#> that Palestinians are reconsidering their decision to apply to the U.N. General Assembly for a vote on unilateral statehood, it now appears that the Palestinian reconciliation agreement is jeopardized by a dispute over the nomination of Prime Minister Salam Fayyad to head the unity government. Fatah has nominated Fayyad, a former World Bank economist, because he's respected in the West, while Hamas opposes him because of his alleged cooperation with the Israelis against some Hamas members. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/fayyad-pm-candidacy-clouds-palestinian-unity-deal/ "Reuters"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=814 "13-Jun-11 News -- Bahrain's Grand Prix race postponed, despite thousands rallying"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110612b 12-Jun-11 News -- U.N. move to recognize Palestinian state may be in doubt =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110612b.head 12-Jun-11 News -- U.N. move to recognize Palestinian state may be in doubt =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110612b.keys Generational Dynamics, Mahmoud Abbas, United Nations, Palestinian Authority, Israel, Syria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110612b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110612b.date 12-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110612b.txt1 Everyone's greatest fear is an uprising on the West Bank =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110612b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.N. move to recognize Palestinian state may be in doubt" The move to ask the United Nations to recognize a Palestinian state based on 1967 borders is being questioned within the Palestinian Authority itself. <#inc ww2010.pic g101010.jpg center "" "Mahmoud Abbas shakes hands with Hillary Clinton (from last year). In the back is a picture of Yasser Arafat (Ynet)"#> Some Palestinian officials are coming to the conclusion that a vote by the United Nations General Assembly would be only a symbolic victory, and would leave them with no way to follow up, according to <#stdurl http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4080227,00.html "Ynet."#> A General Assembly resolution would not be binding. A Security Council resolution would be binding, but it would be vetoed by the United States. "We are trapped with September," said one Palestinian official. "We don’t know what to do after that." As a result, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas would like to find a way to drop the U.N. plans, but feels compelled to continue with the request in order to maintain his credibility, after being so insistent about it in the past. Instead, Abbas has indicated that he would like to revive the "peace process," along the lines suggested by President Obama's recent Mideast policy speech. Abbas has already indicated an interest in a proposal by France to convene Palestinian and Israeli negotiators in July, according to <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Palestinians-Accept-French-Proposal-for-Mideast-Talks-123165563.html "VOA."#> It's thought that there's no hope of a revived peace process if the Palestinians go ahead with request for unilateral state recognition. Not surprisingly, the Israelis would be very pleased by a decision not to pursue a General Assembly vote. The Israelis fear that the Palestinian initiative will harm Israel’s legitimacy and wreck any hope of reviving peace negotiations, according to the <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/israels-diplomatic-drive-to-block-palestinian-un-bid-2296143.html "Independent."#> Thus, Israel has been conducting an international diplomatic effort to convince as many nations as possible to oppose the initiative. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Arab uprisings" These decisions are all occurring in the context of widespread chaos throughout the entire Mideast region, brought about by numerous Arab uprisings. Recently, this has been particularly true in Syria. An international furor recently arose when Palestinian refugees and their descendants crossed into Israel from Syria, and other places, and were met with live fire from the totally surprised Israel Defense Force (IDF). A similar confrontation occurred last weekend, but international reaction was subdued after it became apparent that it was incited by Syrian president Bashar al-Assad to deflect attention from his own bloody massacres of peacefully demonstrating Syrians. However, there's at least one Arab uprising development that the Palestinians AND the Israelis are afraid of -- an Arab uprising in the West Bank. There's already been an uprising in Gaza, and Hamas put it down because it was targeted at Hamas. But an uprising in the West Bank would potentially target both the Palestinian Authority and Israel, and then anything could happen. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=812 "12-Jun-11 News -- U.N. move to recognize Palestinian state may be in doubt"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110612 12-Jun-11 World View -- Military assault on north Syrian town begins =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110612.head 12-Jun-11 World View -- Military assault on north Syrian town begins =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110612.keys Generational Dynamics, Syria, Russia, China, Security Council, Vietnam, Spratly Islands, Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Saudi Arabia, Puerta del Sol, Madrid, Alawis, Muslim Brotherhood, Lashkar-e-Toiba, Taliban, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Pope, Vatican, Roma, Gypsies =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110612.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110612.date 12-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110612.txt1 China threatens Vietnam with 'firmer actions' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110612.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Military assault on north Syrian town begins" <#inc ww2010.pic g110611b.jpg right "" "Syrian army approaches Jish al-Shughour (AP)"#> The anticipated Syrian military assault on the northern town of Jisr al-Shughour, near Turkey's border, began on Saturday. Although much of Jish al-Shughour is now deserted, with over 4,000 refugees having fled across the border into Turkey, there are still tens of thousands of people left. Witnesses report that government attack helicopters were being used to strafe targets, using large-caliber ammunition. Other reports say that the army is shooting at anything that moves, including animals. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Syrian-Forces-Tighten-Grip-on-Border-Town-123684659.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia and China snub UN Security Council talks on Syria" United Nations Security Council deliberations on a resolution condemning Syria's massacre of pro-democracy protesters was snubbed by Russia and China on Saturday. "The Syrians are firing into the crowds and they (Russia and China) don't care," an unnamed Western diplomat said. <#stdurl http://af.reuters.com/article/southAfricaNews/idAFN1127216920110611 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China threatens Vietnam with 'firmer actions'" The confrontation between China and Vietnam over the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea is threatening to boil over. (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110610b ""10-Jun-11 News -- Vietnam protests Chinese attack on Vietnamese survey ships""#>) On Saturday, a Beijing newspaper called Vietnam's attempt at oil exploration to be the "lowest form of nationalism to create new enmity between the people of the two countries." It said that Vietnam's stance was destroying goodwill among the Chinese public, and will cause China's leadership to respond with firmer actions. The article concluded with the threat, "If Vietnam insists on making trouble, thinking that the more trouble it makes, the more benefits it gains, then we truly wish to remind those in Vietnam who determine policy to please read your history." <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hvKWMcZN3XRwXHcoo7R4HQ1d-uiA?docId=df751e48ed924ff1975dc4b0c2ee3961 "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Yemen without President Saleh may not change much" Yemen's president Ali Abdullah Saleh is still convalescing in a hospital in Saudi Arabia, and still claims that he'll be returning to Yemen soon to take power again. But even if he doesn't return right away, Yemen's key military and security positions are filled by Saleh's relatives and loyal tribesmen. Yemen's Vice President Abed Rabbu Mansur al-Hadi has become acting president and supreme commander of the armed forces, but he's without a power base, and will be little more than a figurehead. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38035&tx_ttnews[backPid]=26&cHash=ec169dc9fb1b9737d48ff9a5b5c26fe2 "Jamestown"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Angry young people across Europe take to the streets" <#inc ww2010.pic g110611c.jpg right "" "Tent city in Puerta del Sol square in central Madrid (AFP)"#> In Madrid, Lisbon, Paris, Athens, and other cities, hundreds of thousands of young people have been gathering and protesting joblessness and austerity programs. These are angry young people who are now demonstrating mostly peacefully. As the crisis worsens, expect the crowds to get much larger and much more violent, as happened in 1932. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,767032,00.html "Spiegel"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Sunni Muslims in Syria now turning against the Alawis" The Alawi religous sect is followed by only 10% of Syria's population, and yet it has successfully maintained total control over Syria's large Sunni and Shia Muslim populations for over four decades. Alawism is a belief system that has merged Christianity with many Muslim beliefs, as well as traditional pre-Islamic beliefs. However, the violence of Syria's crackdown on protesters is allowing Sunni Salafists to turn against the Alawis in Syria, and Syria's branch of the Muslim Brotherhood is leading the armed resistance against the Alawi-dominated military. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38034&tx_ttnews[backPid]=515 "Jamestown"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Lashkar-e-Toiba becomes an international jihadist network" Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) started in the 1980s as a Pakistani sponsored militia to fight the Indians in the disputed regions of Kashmir and Jammu. But it has long outgrown it's narrow initial focus, and now aspires to become a global terrorist threat, matching al-Qaeda in spiration, resources and reach. LeT is believed responsible for the horrific three day terrorist attack on multiple targets in Mumbai, killing 166 and injuring hundreds. <#stdurl http://www.eurasiareview.com/lashkar-e-toiba-global-outreach-analysis-03062011/ "South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "IMU-Taliban alliance is destabilizing northern Afghanistan" Another Sunni terrorist group with international aspirations is the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). The group has linked with the ethnic Pashtun Taliban in Pakistan, and they've infiltrated the government forces in northern Afghanistan, which helps them in pulling off sophisticated attacks, such as the May 28 attack on the officies of the governor of a northern province. <#stdurl http://www.eurasiareview.com/afghanistan-imu-taliban-alliance-chips-away-at-the-stone-10062011/ "RFE/RL"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pope welcomes 2,000 European Roma Gypsies to the Vatican" Pope Benedict XVI welcomed over 2,000 gypsies to the Vatican on Saturday. The Pope listened to stories of Nazi persecution and other persecution throughout the 20th century, and said, "The European consciousness cannot forget all the pain! Never again will your people be subjected to harassment, rejection and contempt! For your part, always seek justice, the rule of law, reconciliation and try to never be the cause of another’s suffering!" <#stdurl http://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/pope-welcomes-the-gypsies-of-europe-to-the-vatican/ "Catholic News Agency"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=812 "12-Jun-11 News -- U.N. move to recognize Palestinian state may be in doubt"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110611b 11-Jun-11 News -- Defense Sec'y Robert Gates repudiates the Truman Doctrine =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110611b.head 11-Jun-11 News -- Defense Sec'y Robert Gates repudiates the Truman Doctrine =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110611b.keys Generational Dynamics, Robert Gates, Harry Truman, John Kennedy, Barack Obama, Douglas MacArthur =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110611b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110611b.date 11-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110611b.txt1 The Obama Doctrine =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110611b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Defense Sec'y Robert Gates repudiates the Truman Doctrine" At a Nato meeting in Brussels on Friday, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said, in effect, that the Truman Doctrine that's guided American foreign policy since it was formulated by President Harry Truman in 1947 has ended. <#inc ww2010.pic g110610.jpg center "" "President Harry Truman, March 12, 1947, speaking to Congress"#> Gates' statement was prompted by the disastrous performance of Nato in the Libyan campaign, which was originally promised to take "weeks, not months." Robert Gates' <#stdurl http://www.defense.gov/speeches/speech.aspx?speechid=1581 "speech"#> was a withering criticism of European conduct in the Libyan war, and European preparedness in general:
"Though we can take pride in what has been accomplished and sustained in Afghanistan, the ISAF mission has exposed significant shortcomings in NATO – in military capabilities, and in political will. Despite more than 2 million troops in uniform – NOT counting the U.S. military – NATO has struggled, at times desperately, to sustain a deployment of 25- to 40,000 troops, not just in boots on the ground, but in crucial support assets such as helicopters, transport aircraft, maintenance, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, and much more. Turning to the NATO operation over Libya, it has become painfully clear that similar shortcomings – in capability and will –have the potential to jeopardize the alliance’s ability to conduct an integrated, effective and sustained air-sea campaign. ... [W]hile every alliance member voted for Libya mission, less than half have participated at all, and fewer than a third have been willing to participate in the strike mission. Frankly, many of those allies sitting on the sidelines do so not because they do not want to participate, but simply because they can’t. The military capabilities simply aren’t there. ... We have the spectacle of an air operations center designed to handle more than 300 sorties a day struggling to launch about 150. Furthermore, the mightiest military alliance in history is only 11 weeks into an operation against a poorly armed regime in a sparsely populated country – yet many allies are beginning to run short of munitions, requiring the U.S., once more, to make up the difference."One television commentator said that Britain now has fewer planes in its inventory than it had before World War I. This kind of description reminds me of how unprepared the U.S. was for the attack on Pearl Harbor. The people at that time were almost 100% oblivious to the possibility of attack, even completely ignoring radar sightings of approaching Japanese planes, because they believed that an attack was completely inconceivable. In the Philippines, American General Douglas MacArthur was informed of the Pearl Harbor attack, but still was frozen into inaction for many hours, allowing the Japanese to conduct a devastating attack there as well. After WW II ended, the public mood was completely different, and wanted to prevent any recurrence. The United States effectively became "policeman of the world" when President Harry Truman announced the Truman Doctrine in a historic <#stdurl http://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/harrystrumantrumandoctrine.html "speech to Congress"#> in 1947:
"We have considered how the United Nations might assist in [the Turkey / Greece] crisis. But the situation is an urgent one, requiring immediate action, and the United Nations and its related organizations are not in a position to extend help of the kind that is required. ... As in the case of Greece, if Turkey is to have the assistance it needs, the United States must supply it. We are the only country able to provide that help. ... The peoples of a number of countries of the world have recently had totalitarian regimes forced upon them against their will. The Government of the United States has made frequent protests against coercion and intimidation in violation of the Yalta agreement in Poland, Rumania, and Bulgaria. I must also state that in a number of other countries there have been similar developments. ... I believe that it must be the policy of the United States to support free peoples who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressures. I believe that we must assist free peoples to work out their own destinies in their own way. I believe that our help should be primarily through economic and financial aid which is essential to economic stability and orderly political processes. ... This is a serious course upon which we embark. I would not recommend it except that the alternative is much more serious. The United States contributed $341,000,000,000 toward winning World War II. This is an investment in world freedom and world peace. The assistance that I am recommending for Greece and Turkey amounts to little more than 1 tenth of 1 percent of this investment. It is only common sense that we should safeguard this investment and make sure that it was not in vain. The seeds of totalitarian regimes are nurtured by misery and want. They spread and grow in the evil soil of poverty and strife. They reach their full growth when the hope of a people for a better life has died. We must keep that hope alive. The free peoples of the world look to us for support in maintaining their freedoms. If we falter in our leadership, we may endanger the peace of the world. And we shall surely endanger the welfare of this nation."President John F. Kennedy, in his <#stdurl http://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/jfkinaugural.htm "inaugural address"#> in 1961, echoed the Truman Doctrine:
"Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe, to assure the survival and the success of liberty. This much we pledge -- and more."=inc ww2010.h4 xxx "'Pay any price, bear any burden'" Kennedy's words were, in turn, echoed by Secretary Gates in his Friday speech: <#inc ww2010.pic g110610b.jpg right "" "Robert Gates, speaking to Nato on Friday (AP)"#>
"In the past, I’ve worried openly about NATO turning into a two-tiered alliance: Between members who specialize in 'soft' humanitarian, development, peacekeeping, and talking tasks, and those conducting the 'hard' combat missions. Between those willing and able to pay the price and bear the burdens of alliance commitments, and those who enjoy the benefits of NATO membership – be they security guarantees or headquarters billets – but don’t want to share the risks and the costs. This is no longer a hypothetical worry. We are there today. And it is unacceptable."Gates is specifically repudiating Truman's and Kennedy's words. It's no longer acceptable for America to be the only country willing to "pay the price and bear the burdens" that the former presidents talked about. Europe will have to do the same. Gates said that the situation has worsened every year:
"Part of this predicament stems from a lack of will, much of it from a lack of resources in an era of austerity. For all but a handful of allies, defense budgets – in absolute terms, as a share of economic output – have been chronically starved for adequate funding for a long time, with the shortfalls compounding on themselves each year."At its core, Gates is making a generational argument. The generations of World War II survivors were willing to "pay any price, bear any burden" to make sure that nothing so horrible could happen again, but the generations growing up after the war do not feel the same way:
"With respect to Europe, for the better part of six decades there has been relatively little doubt or debate in the United States about the value and necessity of the transatlantic alliance. The benefits of a Europe whole, prosperous and free after being twice devastated by wars requiring American intervention was self evident. Thus, for most of the Cold War U.S. governments could justify defense investments and costly forward bases that made up roughly 50 percent of all NATO military spending. But some two decades after the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the U.S. share of NATO defense spending has now risen to more than 75 percent – at a time when politically painful budget and benefit cuts are being considered at home. The blunt reality is that there will be dwindling appetite and patience in the U.S. Congress – and in the American body politic writ large – to expend increasingly precious funds on behalf of nations that are apparently unwilling to devote the necessary resources or make the necessary changes to be serious and capable partners in their own defense. Nations apparently willing and eager for American taxpayers to assume the growing security burden left by reductions in European defense budgets."=inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The Obama Doctrine" This raises the following question: What is President Barack Obama's policy? On March 28 of this year, Obama gave a <#stdurl http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/03/28/remarks-president-address-nation-libya "speech about Libya,"#> in which he described what's being called "The Obama Doctrine," and some in the administration have referred to it as "leading from behind":
"It’s true that America cannot use our military wherever repression occurs. And given the costs and risks of intervention, we must always measure our interests against the need for action. But that cannot be an argument for never acting on behalf of what’s right. In this particular country -– Libya -- at this particular moment, we were faced with the prospect of violence on a horrific scale. We had a unique ability to stop that violence: an international mandate for action, a broad coalition prepared to join us, the support of Arab countries, and a plea for help from the Libyan people themselves. We also had the ability to stop Qaddafi’s forces in their tracks without putting American troops on the ground. To brush aside America’s responsibility as a leader and -– more profoundly -– our responsibilities to our fellow human beings under such circumstances would have been a betrayal of who we are. Some nations may be able to turn a blind eye to atrocities in other countries. The United States of America is different. And as President, I refused to wait for the images of slaughter and mass graves before taking action. ... Of course, there is no question that Libya -– and the world –- would be better off with Qaddafi out of power. I, along with many other world leaders, have embraced that goal, and will actively pursue it through non-military means. But broadening our military mission to include regime change would be a mistake. The task that I assigned our forces -– to protect the Libyan people from immediate danger, and to establish a no-fly zone -– carries with it a U.N. mandate and international support. It’s also what the Libyan opposition asked us to do. If we tried to overthrow Qaddafi by force, our coalition would splinter. We would likely have to put U.S. troops on the ground to accomplish that mission, or risk killing many civilians from the air. The dangers faced by our men and women in uniform would be far greater. So would the costs and our share of the responsibility for what comes next. To be blunt, we went down that road in Iraq. Thanks to the extraordinary sacrifices of our troops and the determination of our diplomats, we are hopeful about Iraq’s future. But regime change there took eight years, thousands of American and Iraqi lives, and nearly a trillion dollars. That is not something we can afford to repeat in Libya."It's almost embarrassing to read these words today, almost three months later, and we can see the reason for Robert Gates' gloomy assessment on Friday. He was ridiculing Nato's catastrophic weakness. But in my opinion, he was also warning the world that that the generations growing up after World War II, as represented by the young, naïve, Gen-X President Barack Obama, don't know what's going on, and cannot be counted on to do what the WW II survivors COULD and DID do: follow the policy doctrine that they passionately announced only a few weeks earlier. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=811 "11-Jun-11 News -- Defense Sec'y Robert Gates repudiates the Truman Doctrine"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110611 11-Jun-11 World View -- Turkey may send troops into Syria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110611.head 11-Jun-11 World View -- Turkey may send troops into Syria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110611.keys Generational Dynamics, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Bashar al-Assad, Maher al-Assad, Syria, Yayladagi, Jisr al-Shughour, Giorgos Papaconstantinou, Jean-Claude Trichet, Wolfgang Schäuble, Sarah Palin =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110611.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110611.date 11-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110611.txt1 Bitter EU disputes escalate over Greece bailout =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110611.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey's PM Erdogan reverses position on Syria" <#inc ww2010.pic g110610c.jpg right "" "Map of Jisr al-Shughour in Syria and Yayladagi in Turkey"#> Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has now condemned, in the harshest terms, the man he used to call "a good friend of mine." Referring to Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, as well as his younger brother Maher, he said, "Sadly, their actions are inhumane. The savagery right now... think about it, the images they are playing in the heads of the women they kill is so ugly, these images are hard to eat, hard to swallow." He indicated that he now supports a UN Security Council resolution condemning Syria -- a reversal of his previous position. <#stdurl http://www.todayszaman.com/news-246828-turkey-deplores-inhumane-syrian-crackdown-reprimands-assad-family.html "Zaman"#> and <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2011/06/201161091735838652.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey may send troops into Syria" Nearly 3,000 Syrians have fled into southern Turkey, into the refugee camp at Yayladagi, fearing a military assault by regime armed forces, but Turkey now fears that thousands may turn into hundreds of thousands of refugees. Turkish officials have neither confirmed nor denied a report that they have drawn up plans for an operation that would send several battalions of Turkish troops into Syria itself to carve out a "safe area" or "buffer area" for Syrian refugees inside Assad’s "caliphate." From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Syria is in a generational Awakening era, and can't have a crisis civil war at this time. However, there's nothing stopping Syria from becoming the theatre of a proxy war between other countries which, like Turkey, are in generational Crisis eras. <#stdurl http://www.todayszaman.com/news-246900-turkey-mulls-buffer-zone-in-case-of-big-syrian-influx.html "Zaman"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.S. condemns Syrian crackdown" Syrian security forces dealt brutally with demonstrations in cities across Syria on Friday. Thousands of residents of Jisr al-Shughour have been fleeing, many into Turkey. A military siege is unfolding in the town. Military forces moved into the town after the government said "armed gangs" in the region had killed 120 security personnel. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Syrian-Forces-Fire-on-Protesters-Five-Dead--123643729.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece says it will cut 150,000 public sector jobs" Greece's Finance Minister Giorgos Papaconstantinou presented on Friday a fiscal plan to save 4 billion euros by 2015, in part by cutting some 150,000 jobs in the public sector. Papaconstantinou's plan would abolish public bodies that no longer serve a purpose. <#stdurl http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_19220_10/06/2011_394392 "Kathimerini"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Bitter EU disputes escalate over Greece bailout" A bitter political fight has broken into the open between Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), and Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany's Finance Minister. The ECB position is that Greece should be bailed out by European taxpayers, and that investors should not lose any money on their investments. Since most of the investors are banks (in Europe and the US), the ECB position is that all the banks should be protected. The German position is that they're not going to spend hard-earned German taxpayer euros on Greece unless investors also contribute -- which would mean that Greece would have to go into some form of debt default (though it would be given a different name, such as "reprofiling" or "soft restructuring"). Trichet has raised the stakes by refusing ECB participation in any bailout that involves default, while Schäuble told Germany's parliament that he will not back down to Trichet's demands. Somehow or other, an agreement has to be reached by the end of the month, or Greece will be forced into bankruptcy. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-09/trichet-rejects-ecb-participation-in-greece-bailout.html "Bloomberg"#> and <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/868e5d02-933e-11e0-a038-00144feab49a.html "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "24,000 Sarah Palin e-mail messages released" <#inc ww2010.pic g110610d.jpg right "" "Printed e-mail messages"#> Reporters for the mainstream media (MSM) must be very exhausted after staying up day and night covering the important geopolitical consequences of the hot tweets that Rep. Anthony Weiner sent to various good looking chicks. But their exhaustion didn't stop them from focusing on an even more cataclysmically important story, the release of e-mail messages from Sarah Palin's time as governor. These fine journalists certainly know what's important. <#stdurl http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/sarah-palin-emails-gods-got-all-control "Alaska Dispatch"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Germans confirm that bean sprouts were E.coli source" German authorities have confirmed that domestically grown bean sprouts were the most likely source of the E.coli epidemic that has killed 30 people. "It’s the sprouts," said Reinhard Burger, head of the Robert Koch Institute for disease control and prevention. <#stdurl http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2011/0611/1224298736466.html "Irish Times"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=811 "11-Jun-11 News -- Defense Sec'y Robert Gates repudiates the Truman Doctrine"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110610b 10-Jun-11 News -- Vietnam protests Chinese attack on Vietnamese survey ships =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110610b.head 10-Jun-11 News -- Vietnam protests Chinese attack on Vietnamese survey ships =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110610b.keys Generational Dynamics, China, South China Sea, Vietnam =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110610b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110610b.date 10-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110610b.txt1 China accuses Vietnam of escalating sea tensions =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110610b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Vietnam protests Chinese attack on Vietnamese survey ships" Vietnam has reported that China on Thursday of intentionally rammed and damaged a Vietnamese research ship operating within Vietnamese waters, in a "premeditated" incident, according to <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-06-09/vietnam-says-chinese-boat-harassed-petrovietnam-survey-ship.html "Bloomberg."#> The attacked ship was a survey ship operated by Vietnam Oil & Gas Group, and the attackers were three ships: a fishing boat equipped with specialized cable cutting equipment, and two enforcement vessels. Vietnam has lodged a protest. <#inc ww2010.pic g110609.jpg center "" "China/Vietnam clash at sea in May (Vietnam News)"#> The attack took place one day after China announced the deployment of an aircraft carrier, and four days after China's Defense Minister assured Vietnam and other Chinese neighbors that China's military buildup presents no threat to them. This attack took place just two weeks after a similar Chinese attack on a Vietnamese ship. On May 26, Chinese vessels attacked the Binh Minh 02, a PetroVietnam survey ship, and cut its cables, according to <#stdurl http://english.vietnamnet.vn/en/politics/8871/china-s-power-thirst-underpins-sovereignty-breach.html "Vietnam News."#> In the new attack, on Thursday, something went wrong, and the cable cutting device on the Chinese fishing vessel became entangled in the underwater cables of the Vietnamese ship, according to <#stdurl http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL3E7H916L20110609 "Reuters."#> Two Chinese ships then came to help the fishing vessel, and were able to free it. The Vietnam Foreign Ministry has handed over a diplomatic note to representatives from the Chinese embassy in Hanoi in protest against China's action, according to <#stdurl http://english.vietnamnet.vn/en/politics/8839/vn-condemns-chinese-intrusion.html "Vietnam News."#> The note demanded that China immediately cease and prevent the re-occurrence of activities that violate Viet Nam's sovereign right to its exclusive economic zone and continental shelf. The note also demanded compensation for damage caused. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Increasing Chinese belligerence" The confrontation comes at a time of increasing Chinese belligerence in claiming vast portions of the East China Sea and the South China Sea. China is claiming that its territorial borders extend more than 1,000 miles from the Chinese mainland. They support this claim by a kind of recursive "island chaining" strategy -- they claim one island, then claim all islands within 200 miles of it, then repeat the process with each of those. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e100628 ""28-Jun-10 News -- Military tensions increase in South China Sea.""#>) <#inc ww2010.pic SouthChinaSea2.gif center "" "South China Sea, with red line added to show region claimed by China as part of its sovereign territory (BBC)"#> The U.S. has also objected to China's aggressive claims in the South China Sea, because China is consequentially claiming control of what are now open sea lanes, and is demanding that any foreign ships, particularly American ships, be forbidden from entering the claimed region without China's permission. CIA director Leon Panetta, who has been nominated to succeed Defense Secretary Robert Gates, said this week that China appears to be building the capability "to fight and win short-duration, high-intensity conflicts" along its borders, according to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-08/china-building-ability-for-border-conflicts-panetta.html "Bloomberg."#> Panetta's remarks came a day after a <#stdurl http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/08/opinion/08iht-edbowring08.html "NY Times"#> op-ed saying, "China is trying hard to make up for its diplomatic setbacks in 2010, when, in quick succession, it picked territorial fights with Vietnam, the Philippines, Japan and India, and angered South Korea by not condemning Pyongyang's aggressions." China responded to both statements in an editorial in its state-sponsored organ <#stdurl http://world.globaltimes.cn/asia-pacific/2011-06/663291.html "Global Times."#> According to the editorial, Panetta has exaggerated Beijing's military threat, and his motive was to exacerbate frictions between China and its neighbors. The article quotes a Chinese analyst who says that Panetta's comments could be seen as a provocation by the US to exaggerate tensions between China and its neighbors. He adds that although there were some frictions between China and its neighbors, the Chinese government has put a strong emphasis on improving regional relations this year. The analyst concludes that the possibility of large-scale abiding tensions are small since China will never provoke conflicts and neighboring countries would not intensify frictions. This is the way it always is with China. They continually preach harmony and getting along, but what they always mean by that is that everyone can get along fine, as long as China always gets its way, and nobody criticizes China. When China says it will "never provoke conflicts," it's following the advice of Deng Xiaoping, Chinese leader in the 1980s, who said, "Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership." But the bottom line is that China will become increasingly belligerent and militaristic in supporting its claims to vast regions in the South China Sea and India, and other regions including Taiwan, and is preparing for war with the West to secure all of those claims. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China and Vietnam hack each other's web sites" China's attacks on Vietnam vessels have provoked large anti-Chinese protests in front of the Chinese embassy in Hanoi. The protests have now taken another step, as computer hackers from Vietnam and China have been attacking web sites run by each other's governments. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13707921 "BBC"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China accuses Vietnam of escalating sea tensions" Late on Thursday, China accused Vietnam of "gravely violating" its sovereignty and endangering the lives of Chinese sailors. A statement from China's Foreign Ministry says, "It must be pointed out that by conducting unlawful oil and gas surveys in seas around the Wan-an Bank of the Spratly archipelago and by driving out a Chinese fishing vessel, Vietnam has gravely violated China's sovereignty and maritime rights. China demands that Vietnam cease all violations." <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/10/china-vietnam-idUSL3E7H93GL20110610 "Reuters"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=810 "10-Jun-11 News -- Vietnam protests Chinese attack on Vietnamese survey ships"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110610 10-Jun-11 World View -- Nato will now directly target Libya's Gaddafi =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110610.head 10-Jun-11 World View -- Nato will now directly target Libya's Gaddafi =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110610.keys Generational Dynamics, Nato, Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, Syria, Yemen, AQAP, Robert Shiller, Housing prices, China, Property bubble, Greece, =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110610.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110610.date 10-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110610.txt1 America's 'covert war' in Yemen expands =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110610.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Nato says that air campaign will now directly target Gaddafi in Libya" The U.N. Security Council resolution authorizing the humanitarian mission in Libya says that "all necessary measures" could be used to protect civilians. On Thursday evening, a senior Nato military official told CNN that this is now being interpreted as permitting direct targeting of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. <#stdurl http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/06/09/libya.gadhafi/index.html?hpt=hp_t1 "CNN"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Thousands of Syrian refugees pour into Turkey" <#inc ww2010.pic g110609b.jpg right "" "Turkish soldiers guard border as Syrian refugees await authorization to enter (AP)"#> Following up on <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110609b "yesterday's report,"#> the hundreds of refugees fleeing into Turkey have now turned into thousands, fearing a brutal revenge attack by Syria's army on the town of Jisr al-Shughur. Eyewitnesses have said that a military column of 60 transporters with tanks and armored vehicles, and 10 trucks loaded with soldiers were headed toward Jisr al-Shughur, and were encircling the town, presumably in preparation for a massacre. <#stdurl http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0609/Fleeing-violence-Syrian-refugees-warn-of-potential-massacre "CS Monitor"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "America's 'covert war' in Yemen expands" The 'covert war' that we mentioned briefly yesterday seems to be getting less and less covert. With the government apparently disintegrating, Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Penninsula (AQAP) has the opportunity to take control of large areas of Yemen, especially in the south. In order to prevent that, the US has stepped up its covert air war against AQAP, and is reported to have killed militant suspects with US aircraft and pilotless drones. <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/us-targets-alqaida-as-yemen-faces-civil-war-2295518.html "Independent"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Mass protests planned in Yemen on Friday" Well, it's Friday again, and that means that it's time again for massive street protests as people stream out of mosques after midday prayers. This time Yemen should be the big show, after state media said that President Ali Abdullah Saleh would soon be well enough to return from Saudi Arabia, where he's being treated for burn and shrapnel wounds from a bomb blast. There will be anti-Saleh protests as usual, but this time there'll also be mass pro-regime protests, under the slogan, "Loyalty to Saleh" in Sanaa, the capital. <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/201169235253459255.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece's economy continues to collapse" <#inc ww2010.pic g110609d.gif right "" "Greece's 2-year bond interest rates at 26% (Bloomberg)"#> Greece’s unemployment jumped to a fresh record high of 16.2% in March, from 15.9% in the previous month, according to data published by the Hellenic Statistics Authority. It was at 42.5% for the 15-24 age group, and so there'll be plenty of fodder for coming anti-austerity riots. Separately, industrial production in April fell 11% from a year earlier. Meanwhile, in Brussels, EU officials continue to bicker on the terms of a bailout, and whether private investors will have to contribute, or whether the taxpayer will pay for the entire bailout. <#stdurl http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_08/06/2011_393998 "Kathimerini"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.S. housing prices to fall an additional 10-25%" Yale University professor Robert Shiller, co-author of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, says that an additional decline in property values of 10-25% in the next five years "wouldn't surprise me at all." Home prices have already fallen 33% since the 2006 peak, according to the index, after prices more than doubled from 2000 to July 2006 during the bubble. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a further substantial decline in housing prices is to be expected, by applying the Law of Mean Reversion to long-term housing price data. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-09/shiller-says-u-s-home-price-declines-of-10-to-25-wouldn-t-surprise-me-.html "Bloomberg."#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China's property bubble is crashing" <#inc ww2010.pic g110609c.gif right "" "China: Residential property prices (WSJ)"#> We've been reporting that China's humongous property bubble has been crashing this year, but now that WSJ is saying it, it's kind of official. In the surveyed cities, real estate prices fell 4.9% in 2011, after rising 21.5% in 2010. The collapse of America's housing bubble has had a disastrous effect on the US and world economy, and the collapse of China's housing bubble, which is now in progress, will have a much greater effect on the world. <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304906004576367121835831168.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=810 "10-Jun-11 News -- Vietnam protests Chinese attack on Vietnamese survey ships"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110609b 9-Jun-11 News -- Syrians flee to Turkey as thousands of Assad's troops approach =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110609b.head 9-Jun-11 News -- Syrians flee to Turkey as thousands of Assad's troops approach =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110609b.keys Generational Dynamics, Syria, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Ahmet Davutoglu, Jisr al-Shughur, Bashar al-Assad, David Cameron, Masher al-Assad, UN Security Council, Russia, China, Britain, France, Alain Juppé =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110609b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110609b.date 9-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110609b.txt1 Pressure builds for international response =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110609b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syrians flee to Turkey as thousands of Assad's troops approach" Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Wednesday that his country will will accept the hundreds of refugees fleeing violence in Syria, according to <#stdurl http://www.dawn.com/2011/06/08/turkey-will-not-close-its-borders-to-syrian-refugees-pm.html "AFP"#>: <#inc ww2010.pic g110608.jpg center "" "Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday (AP)"#>
"At this point, it is out of question for us to close the doors. The developments in Syria are really sad, we are following them with concern. We wish Syria to be more tolerant to civilians and (further) the reform steps he has already taken, as soon as possible in a more convincing way."However, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that Turkey is preparing to make security checks for Syrian refugees crossing the border.
"We have taken all necessary precautions in case of a massive flow of crossings. We have to determine their intention [in] seeking refuge.<#inc ww2010.pic g110608b.jpg right "" "Masher al-Assad"#> The refugees are particularly fleeing from the town of Jisr al-Shughur. As we reported recently, 120 Syrian security forces were killed in an ambush on Friday, and in gunfights over the weekend. The <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8564450/Thousands-of-troops-march-on-Syrian-town-led-by-murderous-brother-of-Assad.html "Telegraph"#> reports that a convoy of hundreds of tanks and thousands of Syrian soldiers are headed to the city to exact revenge. They are led by Maher al-Assad, the brother of the president Bashar al-Assad, and the most feared man in Syria. Jisr al-Shughur is now a ghost town. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pressure builds for international response" Because of the brutal slaughter that has gone on in Syria since the anti-government protests began on March 15, Britain and France are preparing a resolution to the U.N. Security Council condemning Syria's crackdown, according to <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/International-Community-Turns-Up-Pressure-on-Syria-123457519.html "VOA."#> British Prime Minister David Cameron said,
"There are credible reports of a thousand dead and as many as 10,000 detained and the violence being meted out to peaceful protesters and demonstrators is completely unacceptable. Of course, we must not stand silent in the face of these outrages - and we will not."In case these words sound familiar, they're not dissimilar to the words that Cameron was using several months ago when Britain and France were proposing a Security Council resolution for a humanitarian mission to prevent the people of Benghazi in Libya from being massacred. However, as a similar proposal is now being made for Syria, the international climate is quite different -- mainly because of the result of the Libyan resolution. Russian and China abstained on the Libyan resolution, but they've been saying that they're appalled at Nato's "overreaction" in Libya. The draft resolution being presented to the Security Council is fairly weak, with no talk of sanctions, military action, or referrals to the International Criminal Court (ICC), according to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-08/europeans-face-vetoes-of-un-measure-condemning-syrian-repression.html "Bloomberg."#> Instead, the text simply "condemns the systematic violation of human rights, including the killings, arbitrary detentions, disappearances and torture of peaceful demonstrators, human rights defenders and journalists by the Syrian authorities," and leaves it at that. In an effort to build support, the text adds language condemning violence against Syrian security forces and asking "all sides to act with the utmost restraint." The French government has gone further than the United States and Britain in condemning President Bashar al-Assad by saying that he has lost his legitimacy to rule and should step down, according to the <#stdurl http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2011/0609/1224298640764.html "Irish Times."#> France's foreign minister Alain Juppé believes that the resolution has the support of 11 of the 15 members on the Security Council. Russia, which regards Syria as a strategic ally, could veto the text, but Juppé said this was "a risk we are willing to take." He added,
"Russia will probably veto any resolution on Syria . . . so what should we do? We think we must go ahead and circulate the draft resolution at the security council. We think it will be possible to get 11 votes in favour of the resolution and we’ll see what the Russians do. If they veto, they will take that responsibility. Maybe if they see that there are 11 votes in favour of the resolution, they will change their mind."=inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey's strategy" Turkey was badly burned in handling the situation in Libya. At the beginning, it opposed the Nato humanitarian mission, and supported the Gaddafi regime. Only after Gaddafi's brutality became unbearable did Erdogan have to reverse position and support the Nato action. Now Erdogan has an even more difficult problem with Syria. Ergodan considers Bashar al-Assad a close personal friend, and has repeatedly urged his friend to institute reforms, but has never called for regime change. But now, Erdogan is moving in the direction of supporting regime change, according to an analysis by <#stdurl http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/06/08/uncomfortable_ottomans "Foreign Policy."#> There are many reasons why Erdogan has continued to support Assad. Turkey would like to regain some of the glory that it used to hold as leader of the Ottoman Empire, and Erdogan has been using Assad as a conduit to establish close relations with Arabs. Erdogan's confrontations with Israel have been especially helpful to Erdogan in this regard, especially after the flotilla incident a year ago, and many Arabs consider Erdogan to be a hero. But Erdogan has the same conflict that Europe, the U.S., Iran, Saudi Arabia, and other countries have, since the beginning of the Arab uprisings: Do you side with "the people," who want freedom and democracy, but may end up triggering violence and instability, or do you side with your old friends, the Mubaraks, Gaddafis, and Assads of the world, who keep everything under control, but do so through torture and mutilation? At what point do you switch allegiance from the torturer to the people? That's not an easy question to answer in real time. According to the article, Erdogan has attempted to play a delicate balancing act that maintains a good relationship with Assad, while helping the opposition. On June 1, Turkey sponsored a gathering of about 300 Syrian dissidents in the southern Turkish city of Antalya, as an attempt to construct a viable alternative to the Assad family's rule. However, this is a risky strategy. Erdogan hopes to remain friendly to both sides, but could end up alienating both sides. In other words, the article concludes, Turkey could lose both the Arab people and their rulers if it bets on the wrong horse. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=809 "9-Jun-11 News -- Syrians flee to Turkey as thousands of Assad's troops approach"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110609 9-Jun-11 World View -- Gates calls for more countries to joint Libya campaign =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110609.head 9-Jun-11 World View -- Gates calls for more countries to joint Libya campaign =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110609.keys Generational Dynamics, France, Britain, Canada, Italy, Denmark, Belgium, Spain, E.coli, John Kerry, Iran, Natanz, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Great Islamic Revolution, Great Islamic Revolution, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Gerald M. Feierstein, Yemen, Christiana Figueres, China, Qi Jianguo, Mexico =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110609.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110609.date 9-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110609.txt1 Senator Kerry turns against Obama's Afghanistan policy =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110609.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Sec'y Gates calls for more Nato allies to join Libya air campaign" <#inc ww2010.pic g110608c.jpg right "" "Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, right, and his British counterpart, Liam Fox, left, at Nato meeting in Brussels, June 8 (Reuters)"#> Complaining that the humanitarian air campaign in Libya was putting a strain on just seven members, out of the 28-nation alliance, who were carrying the burden. Those seven members are France, Britain, the U.S., Canada, Italy, Denmark and Belgium. Gates called on Germany and Poland to contribute. He also asked Spain, Turkey and the Netherlands, which are participating but not in airstrikes, to step up their role. Gates called the conflict a "war of attrition" and a "psychological war." He said that "crews are getting tired" and that "the stress on aircraft is significant." With only a few alliance members participating, he said, "it doesn't mean they can't continue the operation; they will, but it's stressful." <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-libya-nato-20110609,0,6023643.story "LA Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "German E.coli hunt focuses on cucumbers again" First it was Spanish cucumbers. Next it was German bean sprouts. And now German scientists are re-focusing on cucumbers as the source of the Germany's E.coli epidemic that has killed 25 people and sickened thousands. Farmers in Spain are furious about how they were initially implicated, costing them a huge part of their annual income. In Madrid on Wednesday, they gave away for free 30 tonnes of fruit and vegetables in danger of spoiling, in order to prove that Spanish produce is not to blame. <#stdurl http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2011/0609/1224298640432.html "Irish Times"#> With the cause of Germany's E.coli epidemic still undetermined, some health officials say it's just a matter of time before a similar outbreak happens in the U.S. There have been reported cases in the United States, and most of the victims had visited Germany. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/health/E-Coli-Outbreak-in-Europe-Causes-Concern-in-US-123485404.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Senator Kerry turns against Obama's Afghanistan policy" The Senate Foreign Relations Committee has issued a report questioning the value of the war in Afghanistan, and claiming that almost $19 billion in U.S. aid to Afghanistan may have undermined the government and promoted corruption. This is significant because Mass. Senator John Kerry has been the principal defender of President Obama's Afghanistan policy among the Democrats. Kerry is well-known as an antiwar liberal, since he compared American servicemen indirectly to Nazis in 1971, after serving in Vietnam. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-08/domestic-demands-clash-with-u-s-policy-on-afghanistan-correct-.html "Bloomberg"#> and <#stdurl http://foreign.senate.gov/download/?id=E8637185-8E67-4F87-81D1-119AE49A7D1C "Senate Foreign Relations Committee"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iran announces it will triple enrichment of 20% uranium enrichment" <#inc ww2010.pic g110608d.jpg right "" "Iran's nuclear logo"#> On Wednesday, Iran announced that it will speed up uranium enrichment efforts by a factor of three, to provide fuel for Tehran's nuclear medical research reactor. The announcement quotes the head of Iran's atomic energy agency as saying, "This year, under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency, we will transfer 20 percent enrichment from the Natanz site to the Fordow site and we will increase the production capacity by three times." <#stdurl http://www.presstv.ir/detail/183835.html "Press TV"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iran's Supreme Leader calls for unity" Seeking to end the increasingly bitter and widening conflict with president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, "In the country there are different political views... Do not deprive someone of security if he does not seek regime change or betrayal, or does not want to carry out enemy orders, but does not share your view. Piety is not trampling on one's opponents." Khamenei has been somewhat desperately seeking a return to the national unity of the generational Recovery Era that followed the end of the Great Islamic Revolution and the Iran/Iraq war (1979-1988). However, the young post-war generation is increasingly pro-Western, and doesn't particularly want to see Israel pushed into the ocean. This "generation gap" is widening in Iran's generational Awakeng Era. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jb_oc5ZUbLJ2exXLgkCF22rtc3xQ?docId=CNG.4110b3e99956903bdf5fbd9d268ff9c0.4d1 "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Yemen's tribal conflict intensifies in president Saleh's absence" A US official has acknowledged that President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s shrapnel wounds are far more serious than previously reported, and that he has burns over 40% of his body, making it unlikely that he can return to power for weeks, if ever. Furthermore, the attack was accomplished by means of a bomb placed by someone in the palace, not by mortar fire from an opposition tribe, as previously reported. Because of the power vacuum, tribal militias have been clashing with government forces in the southern cities of Taiz and Zinjibar, causing a large refugee problem. <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/991c7afa-91f2-11e0-b8c1-00144feab49a.html "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> and <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=224081 "Reuters"#> The U.S. is taking advantage of the power vacuum by intensifying a secret campaign of Yemen airstrikes against militants linked to Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Gerald M. Feierstein, the U.S. Ambassador in Yemen met recently with leaders of the opposition, partly to make the case for continuing American operations. Officials in Washington said that opposition leaders have told Feierstein that operations against AQAP should continue regardless of who wins the power struggle in Yemen. <#stdurl http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/09/world/middleeast/09intel.html "NY TImes"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "UN says that climate talks will miss Kyoto deadline" <#inc ww2010.pic g110608e.jpg right "" "Angry climate change official Christiana Figueres lectures delegates (Reuters)"#> The U.N. is saying that time has run out to put in place binding commitments on curbing greenhouse gases, following up to the Kyoto Protocol. Most people are blaming the U.S., the U.S. is refusing to make commitments unless China makes similar commitments, and China is refusing to make any commitments. Climate officials are particularly frustrated because the commitment failure is causing the international carbon exchange market is collapsing. Many bankers had hoped to create a new financial bubble by creating synthetic securities backed by carbon credits, but now their dreams of great wealth won't be realized. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/un-says-climate-talks-will-miss-kyoto-deadline/ "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China's first aircraft carrier is nearing launch" China has, for the first time, officially acknowledged the construction of an aircraft carrier. The 300-meter-long carrier is being built from a defunct Soviet-era carrier formerly named the Varyag, which was purchased from Ukraine in 1998. "All of the great nations in the world own aircraft carriers -- they are symbols of a great nation," says Qi Jianguo, assistant to the chief of the People's Liberation Army's general staff. <#stdurl http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/06/09/2011060900583.html "Chosun (Seoul)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Mexico's drug gangs building own tanks as war intensifies" Mexico's rival drug gangs are in an arms race, and the latest sign is that they're building their own homemade "Mad Max" type heavily armored vehicles that they deploy in clashes with each other. <#stdurl http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/06/06/115327/mexican-drug-gangs-building-own.html "McClatchy"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=809 "9-Jun-11 News -- Syrians flee to Turkey as thousands of Assad's troops approach"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110608b 8-Jun-11 News -- Sunni versus Shia divide splitting Kuwait =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110608b.head 8-Jun-11 News -- Sunni versus Shia divide splitting Kuwait =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110608b.keys Generational Dynamics, Kuwait, Iran, Sheikh Nasser al-Mohammed al-Sabah =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110608b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110608b.date 8-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110608b.txt1 Tension between Kuwait and Iran =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110608b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Sunni versus Shia divide splitting Kuwait" Three weeks ago, a fistfight broke out among seven members of Kuwait's parliament. It started when a Shia pro-government lawmaker referred to Kuwaitis being held by American armed forces at Guantanamo Bay prison as "terrorists." A pro-Sunni Salafist opposition lawmaker took offense at that characterization, according to <#stdurl http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/05/18/idINIndia-57106020110518 "Reuters,"#> and a sectarian fistfight quickly broke out. <#inc ww2010.pic g110607.jpg center "" "Kuwait Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser al-Mohammed al-Sabah"#> That incident was just a part of the larger story of hostility between Kuwait and Iran. During the Iran/Iraq of the 1980s, Kuwait sided with Saddam Hussein of Iraq against Iran. After the war ended, Saddam returned the favor by invading Kuwait in 1990, in order to make the country Iraq's 18th province, resulting in the American-led Desert Storm war with Iraq. After Desert Storm liberated Kuwait, Kuwait began reaching out to Iran, though their relationship has never been friendly. Things began going downhill last year, when Kuwait arrested seven people, charging them with being an "Iranian spy ring" that was stealing secrets about the Kuwaiti army and US troops, and passing the information on to Iran, according to the <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-10851217 "BBC."#> Iran denied involvement, but when a Kuwait court in March convicted them of spying and condemned them to death, Kuwait and Iran broke diplomatic relations, according to <#stdurl http://www.france24.com/en/20110330-kuwait-recalls-envoy-iran-over-spy-ring-report "AFP."#> Relations were restored in May, but last month Kuwait seized an Iranian ship smuggling guns into Kuwait, and two Iranians were arrested, according to the <#stdurl http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/kuwait/kuwait-seizes-iranian-ship-carrying-contraband-arms-and-ammunition-1.813314 "Gulf News."#> Relations are also strained because Kuwait is a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and has contributed troops to quelling the Shia anti-government demonstrations in Bahrain. Within Kuwait itself, the government is headed for a deep political crisis, according to <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/trustlaw/news/analysis-kuwait-in-crisis-as-ruling-family-splits-mps-rebel/ "Reuters,"#> because of a split within the al-Sabah family that has ruled Kuwait for 250 years. What Kuwaiti leaders fear most is that the Arab uprisings that have spread across Mideast will reach Kuwait, and perhaps they already have. Two weeks ago, 2,000 young people took to the streets of Kuwait City demanding that the Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser Mohammad Ahmad Sabah be sacked because of corruption allegations, according to the <#stdurl http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2011/05/kuwait-protest-pm-corruption-demonstration-sheikh-topple-.html "LA Times."#> Some demonstrators are going further and demanding that a new prime minister be chosen from outside the al-Sabah family, for the first time in 250 years. Kuwaiti protesters are reportedly staging new rallies next Friday that they have dubbed "Day of Departure." (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=806 "8-Jun-11 News -- Sunni versus Shia divide splitting Kuwait"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110608 8-Jun-11 World View -- Gaddafi will stay, dead or alive =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110608.head 8-Jun-11 World View -- Gaddafi will stay, dead or alive =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110608.keys Generational Dynamics, Muammar Gaddafi, Libya, David Eisenhower, Greece, privatization =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110608.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110608.date 8-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110608.txt1 Bitter privatization battles coming in Greece =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110608.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Libya bombing escalates, Gaddafi vows to stay, dead or alive" <#inc ww2010.pic g110607b.jpg right "" "Tripoli after Nato air strike, June 7 (EPA)"#> Nato raids on Tripoli were significantly escalated on Tuesday, with the heaviest bombing since the beginning of the humanitarian mission in March. Warplanes hit the city several times an hour, sending thundering sound waves across the capital. Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi said he was ready to unleash 250,000 to 500,000 armed Libyans to swarm across the country to cleanse it from "armed gangs," as he calls the rebels. "We only have one choice: we will stay in our land dead or alive. We will not kneel! We will not surrender. ... Whether we are martyred, killed or commit suicide, we care about our duty towards history." <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/06/20116716385680354.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Bitter privatization battles coming in Greece" <#inc ww2010.pic g110607c.jpg right "" "Planned privatizations by Greece (Spiegel)"#> With Greece's economy continuing to collapse, and northern EU neighbors balking at further bailouts, Greece has one major card to play in attempting to pay off its debts without defaulting: selling off state-owned assets, for planned receipts of some 50 billion euros. However, this will lead to extremely bitter, and probably violent, political battles, as too many employees making too much money on public payrolls in "workers' paradise" jobs are faced with salary reductions and job losses. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,767199,00.html "Spiegel"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "World War II And Its Meaning For Americans" An interesting perspective from David Eisenhower, the grandson of President Dwight D. Eisenhower. <#stdurl http://www.eurasiareview.com/world-war-ii-and-its-meaning-for-americans-analysis-06062011/ "Foreign Policy Research Institute"#> and <#stdurl http://www.fpri.org/multimedia/20070324.eisenhower.wwiimeaningamericans.html "Video"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=806 "8-Jun-11 News -- Sunni versus Shia divide splitting Kuwait"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110607b 7-Jun-11 News -- BIS report shows high US exposure to European defaults =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110607b.head 7-Jun-11 News -- BIS report shows high US exposure to European defaults =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110607b.keys Generational Dynamics, Germany, France, Britain, Bank of International Settlements, Greece, Portugal, Ireland =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110607b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110607b.date 7-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110607b.txt1 U.S. Bank Guarantees to European Banks =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110607b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "BIS report shows high US exposure to European defaults" Many people in Germany, France, Britain and the United States believe that European countries like Greece, Ireland and Portugal should simply be allowed to default, so that we can all get on with our lives. <#inc ww2010.pic g110606.jpg center "" "Bank of International Settlements, Basel, Switzerland"#> However, the new <#stdurl http://bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1106.htm "Bank of International Settlements Quarterly Review for June 2011,"#> released on Monday, shows that default would not be such a simple matter. The new BIS report contains new data on cross-border bank exposure that wasn't in previous reports. That is, it answers this question: If one country defaults on its debt, how much money will the banks of other countries lose? In the following table, I've extracted the exposures of France, Germany, Britain and the U.S. to defaults in Greece, Ireland and Portugal.
Defaulting country France Germany UK US ----------- -------- -------- -------- -------- Greece $ 65.047 $ 39.923 $ 19.018 $ 41.451 Ireland 45.030 158.548 194.483 105.955 Portugal 31.759 50.183 29.063 46.500 ----------- -------- -------- -------- -------- TOTAL $141.836 $227.534 $242.564 $193.906 All amounts are in billions of dollars(If you want to examine these figures for yourself, look at Table 9E in the "Detailed Tables" portion of the report.) The above totals are enormous. In the scenario where all three countries defaulted, and investors were forced to take a 50% "haircut," the U.S. would lose $97 billion (half of $194 billion). This would cause a convulsion that would be worse than the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, especially since the three European countries shown (France, Germany, UK) would lose $306 billion -- and that doesn't include the losses from many other countries around the world. If you've never read the article on <#hreftext ww2010.i.garrett071009 ""The bubble that broke the world,""#> now would be a good time to do it. This was written in 1932, and tells a great deal about what's going on today. Note how the collapse of Austria's Credit-Anstalt bank and Germany's Danatbank in 1931 brought about massive unemployment, and social tension that gave rise to Communism and Naziism. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.S. Bank Guarantees to European Banks" If you look at the figures in detail, you make an interesting and intriguing discovery that the exposure of U.S. banks is different in kind from the exposure of the European banks. The report distinguishes between two kinds of exposures: "Foreign Claims" are direct losses, such as in the value of bond holdings. "Other potential exposures" include "Guarantees Extended," and a Bank Guarantee is defined <#stdurl http://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Bank+Guarantees "online"#> as follows:
"A promise made by a bank to provide payment to another bank or lender on a bond, loan, or other liability in the event of default. Banks often make guarantees on behalf of certain clients to promise payment on loans. Bank guarantees reduce the risk to loans and liabilities and usually improve the credit agency ratings of bonds."Now, as it turns out, most of the European banks' exposure is in Foreign Claims, while most of the U.S. banks' exposure is in "Guarantees Extended." Now isn't that intriguing? We know that the Federal Reserve has been helping out European banks for the last three years in all sorts of ways. So a logical guess is that the Federal Reserve has provided over $100 billion in guarantees for these three countries, meaning that the U.S. will have to pay up if these European countries default. That's a surmise, but it seems to be what the BIS report is saying. And so, Dear Reader, if you've been cheering on defaults by Greece, Ireland and Portugal, then, as my mother used to say, you're threatening to "cut off your nose to spite your face." In other words, when these countries default, it will cause a major worldwide banking crisis, throughout Europe, across the United States, and around the world. But of course, as we've been saying for many, many months now, default can't be avoided. Default is 100% certain. All the Europeans (and the Fed) can do is continue to "kick the can down the road," by providing more bailouts. In the meantime, more and more debt is being piled on to these countries, so they can make payments on their old debt. Probably the Fed is continuing to provide new Bank Guarantees as well. What about China? Table 9E doesn't indicate China's exposure to these defaulting countries, possibly because China doesn't want to provide that kind of data. However, I have seen news stories about China investing in Greece and other European countries, so China probably has a large exposure as well. We're all in a movie theatre watching an incredibly fascinating disaster movie. But the doors are locked, and we can't leave the theatre, even when we begin to realize that we're not just WATCHING the disaster movie -- we're IN the disaster movie, and the disaster movie is happening to us. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=803 "7-Jun-11 News -- BIS report shows high US exposure to European defaults"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110607 7-Jun-11 World View -- Syria implicated in 'Naksa day' deaths =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110607.head 7-Jun-11 World View -- Syria implicated in 'Naksa day' deaths =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110607.keys Generational Dynamics, Syria, Naksa Day, Israel, Bashir al-Assad, Jisr al-Shughour, Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, E. coli =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110607.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110607.date 7-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110607.txt1 Syria says that 120 security officers were killed in ambush =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110607.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Reform Party of Syria says that Assad paid anti-Israeli protesters" <#inc ww2010.pic g110606b.jpg right "" "Syrian protesters on Sunday (IDF)"#> The anti-Assad Reform Party of Syria (RPS) is saying that the regime of Syrian president Bashir al-Assad paid hundreds of poverty-stricken Syrian farmers $1,000 each to join anti-Israel "Naksa Day" protests on Sunday, and promised $10,000 to the families of any protester who was killed by Israeli fire. <#stdurl http://reformsyria.org/syrian-opposition/rps-statement-concerning-the-assad-stompers-of-the-golan-heights "Reform Party of Syria"#> American and Israeli officials did not repeat the claim that Assad paid each protester $1,000, but both criticized Syria for provoking the fatal protests. U.S. State Department spokesman Mark Toner said, "As we did previously, we condemn what appears to be an effort by the Syrian government to incite events and draw attention away from its own internal issues. And it's clear that such behavior will not distract international attention on Syria's, Syrian government's condemnable behavior on its own citizens." <#stdurl http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/06/06/israel.palestinian.protests/ "CNN"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria says that 120 security officers were killed in ambush" Syria's government is vowing to retaliate decisively against "armed groups" who killed 120 security forces in an ambush on Friday, and in gunfights over the weekend. The deaths took place in the northern town of Jisr al-Shughour. According to Syria's state TV, "The armed groups are using weapons and grenades ... the people in Jisr al-Shughour are urging the army to intervene speedily." However, some protesters are saying that the gunfight was actually a mutiny by security forces that didn't want to continue firing on unarmed protesters. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13677200 "BBC"#> and <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/201166152649439258.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Yemen's president plans to return within days" Saudi Arabia's royal family had thought that they had finally gotten Yemen's president Ali Abdullah Saleh out of office for good, so that everyone could sign off on the peace plan that the Saudi's had put forth, and the tribal violence could be ended. But apparently Saleh plans to rise from his bed in a few days and return to Yemen to resume his role as president. This is all but certain to renew and worsen the tribal violence. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/yemen/8560053/Yemens-president-to-return-within-days-says-deputy.html "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Oooops! E.coli not coming from bean sprouts after all" German officials are beginning to appear increasingly incompetent, as they fail to identify the source of the E.coli outbreak that has sickened thousands and killed 22 people. At first they blamed Spain's cucumbers, causing an entire crop to be destroyed, but later retracted that claim. Then, over the weekend, they announced that the problem had been isolated to bean sprouts grown at a farm in northern Germany, but now on Monday they were forced to retract that claim as well. Each such mistake costs farmers a great deal of money, at a time when food prices are skyrocketing. German scientists are back at square one and, in the mean time, there is a growing food scare across Europe. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/8560069/E.coli-Germany-says-it-might-not-be-bean-sprouts.html "Telegraph"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=803 "7-Jun-11 News -- BIS report shows high US exposure to European defaults"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110606b 6-Jun-11 News -- Portugal throws out Socrates, hoping to avoid Greece's fate =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110606b.head 6-Jun-11 News -- Portugal throws out Socrates, hoping to avoid Greece's fate =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110606b.keys Generational Dynamics, Portugal, Greece, bailout =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110606b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110606b.date 6-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110606b.txt1 Greece's new bailout will be much more expensive than predicted =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110606b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Portugal throws out Socrates, hoping to avoid Greece's fate" I was watching a TV interview in Lisbon, Portugal, with an economist, who said the following:
"In Portugal, if you don't want to work, you'll receive money, you'll pay no taxes, you'll receive benefits, you'll get many things for free, and you'll probably receive a house. But if you do want to work, then you're heavily taxed, and you have to pay for everything. So there is no incentive to work."<#inc ww2010.pic g110605.jpg center "" "Pedro Passos Coelho, Portugal's new Prime Minister in waiting (AFP)"#> Well, Portugal's voters agree -- or at least, they SAY they agree. On Sunday, they threw out the left-wing Socialist Party, headed by current Prime Minister José Sócrates, and threw in the center-right Social Democrat Party (PSD), according to <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jKgQDlbGBL8rj2TBfnFM-DceApiA?docId=CNG.87fba47f458e91c953ff6a6f0ad2c0f7.121&index=0 "AFP."#> The PSD is expected to select Pedro Passos Coelho as the new Prime Minister. In his victory speech, Coelho said:
"I want to guarantee to those who are watching us from abroad that Portugal does not intend to be a burden for the future to other countries that lent us the means that we needed today to face up to our responsibilities. We will do everything possible to honour the agreement established between the Portuguese state, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, to regain the confidence of markets."<#inc ww2010.pic g110605b.gif right "" "Portugal 10-year bond yield, one year to June 3, 2011 (Bloomberg)"#> The problem is that Passos Coelho cannot possibly do that. Yields (interest rates) on Portugal's 10-year bonds have been rising steadily for a year, and are now close to 10%, indicating that investors increasingly believe that Portugal will default. Portuguese bond yields are not yet as high as the astronomical Greek bond yields, but they're getting there, and there is nothing on the horizon that's going to bring them down. It's worth remembering at this point that fraud is the norm these days, and politicians lie openly and easily. José Sócrates said for months that Portugal's finances were sound, and that Portugal would never have to ask the EU for a bailout. And he kept saying that over and over again, until just before the moment when he announced that he was asking the EU for a bailout. And so when Passos Coelho says that he wants "to guarantee to those who are watching us from abroad" that Portugal will not be a burden, he might as well have said, "Portugal's annual government debt is 102% of GDP and we're going to screw as many of you out there as we can, so that we can continue to live well. After all, why should we suffer austerity programs, when we're just going to default eventually anyway?" =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece's new bailout will be much more expensive than predicted" That brings us to Greece, the country that lied its way into the eurozone by selling fraudulent synthetic securities manufactured by Goldman Sachs, but didn't tell the EU auditors about them. Last year, Greece was granted a 110 billion euro bailout, and all the politicians promised that would be enough. However, a couple of weeks ago, it was disclosed that Greece would need another 60-70 billion euros of aid, according to <#stdurl http://www.marketwatch.com/story/greece-aid-may-top-100-billion-euros-report-2011-06-04 "MarketWatch."#> Well now an analysis by <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/0,1518,766645,00.html "Der Spiegel"#> shows that the new estimate of 60-70 billion euros is not nearly enough. Greece is going to need at least 100 billion euros more aid, according to the new estimate. Furthermore, it is still bitterly disputed whether private investors will be required to take a loss in this new aid package, or whether taxpayers will have to bear the entire burden. Some countries, especially Germany, are saying loudly that their taxpayers will bail out Greece unless private investors participate in the aid by losing some of the principal on the bonds they own. The European Central Bank (ECB) has been saying even more loudly that any private investor participation would be equivalent to a debt default, and would be devastating to banks across the eurozone, since many of them have Greek bonds in their vaults. According to the Spiegel article (rough translation):
"At a meeting of senior officials from the Euro-zone last Wednesday Germany's Financial Secretary Jörg Asmussen rejected any new program put forth by the participants, if private investors didn't make sacrifices as well, despite ECB demands. He stood alone against the rest of the euro zone. Asmussen indirectly threatened at the meeting to force Greece into bankruptcy. He made clear to his colleagues that without involvement of the private sector, there would be no approval by the Bundestag (German parliament) -- and without that, there would be no new program. And without new help, Greece would soon face bankruptcy. Asmussen had strict instructions from German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble not to agree to any solution where the private investors were unscathed. Money for the new program must not come from public funds alone, Schäuble announced before the meeting. The finance ministers met until 3 am Thursday morning, without result. Now the Finance Ministers will have to reach a final conclusion on their June 20th meeting."Greece will have to agree to implement harsh austerity measures to get any bailout at all, but now <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-05/greece-s-papandreou-is-facing-growing-backlash-as-final-eu-bailout-premier.html "Bloomberg"#> is reporting that a backlash is developing against prime minister George Papandreou of Greece's Socialist Party. Greek's parliament is rebelling, and he may forced to step down, just as Portugal's Sócrates was. There's an old saying that "Once you understand the problem, you're 90% of the way towards solving it." Actually, that isn't true. This problem is pretty well understood by now, but no solution exists. Just because you understand a problem doesn't mean that a solution even exists, and that's true in this case. I keep saying that history has been speeding up lately, and we've seen it again this weekend -- in Yemen, in the Golan Heights, and in the deteriorating eurozone. It won't be much longer now. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=801 "6-Jun-11 News -- Portugal throws out Socrates, hoping to avoid Greece's fate"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110606 6-Jun-11 World View -- Israeli kills protesters on Golan Heights =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110606.head 6-Jun-11 World View -- Israeli kills protesters on Golan Heights =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110606.keys Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Saudi Arabia, Golan Heights, China, Vietnam, Pope Benedict XVI, Jadranka Kosor, Croatia E. coli, IRS, tax refunds, Henry Kissinger =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110606.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110606.date 6-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110606.txt1 IRS is delaying income tax refunds for adoption tax credit =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110606.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Wild celebrations in Yemen over Saleh's departure" <#inc ww2010.pic g110605d.jpg right "" "Yemeni army soldiers lifted by anti-government protesters, celebrate Saleh's departure (AP)"#> The evacuation of Yemen's wounded president Ali Abdullah Saleh to a military hospital in Riyadh in Saudi Arabia has caused wild celebrations on the streets of Sanaa, the capital of Yemen. <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110605b ""5-Jun-11 News -- Yemen's VP takes power, as President Saleh is evacuated to Saudi Arabia""#>) Many supporters are expecting Saleh to return to Yemen, once the medical treatment is over. But Saleh's absense raises the specter of an even more violent power struggle between Saleh's forces and opposition tribes. <#stdurl http://www.saudigazette.com.sa/index.cfm?method=home.regcon&contentID=20110606102390 "Saudi Gazette"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israelis kill protesters entering the Golan Heights from Syria" When protesters crossed Syria's border into the Golan Heights on May 15, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) were completely unprepared. This time, the IDF was well prepared, but it seems to have made little difference. Sunday was "Naksa Day," commemorating the start of the 1967 Six-Day War, and hundreds of Syrian anti-Israeli protesters attempted to cross the border into the Golan Heights. Syria's government, whose figures are undoubtedly an exaggeration, claims that dozens of protesters were killed. <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/violence-on-syria-border-leaves-israel-in-a-no-win-situation-1.366176 "Haaretz"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Conflicts flare between China and Vietnam" Hundreds of Vietnamese demonstrated in front of China's embassy on Sunday, protesting China's aggressions in the South China Sea. Vietnam says a Chinese vessel intentionally cut a submerged cable of a Vietnamese oil survey ship last month while it was conducting seismic tests. This is just one of a growing number of territorial disputes, as China continues to claim sovereignty over vast regions in the South and East China seas, including public seaways, as well as islands that have been historically claimed by other countries. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/China-Irks-Neighbors-as-Tensions-Rise-in-South-China-Sea-123197918.html "VOA"#> At a meeting of 27 nations in Singapore, China sought to allay fears over its military buildup: "We do not intend to threaten any country with the modernisation of our military force. I would like to say that it is not our option. We did not seek to, we are not seeking to and we will not seek hegemony and we will not threaten any country." Peace in our time. <#stdurl http://www.todayonline.com/Singapore/EDC110606-0000044/China-allays-fears-with-message-of-peace "Today (Singapore)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pope Urges Croatia to Defend Christianity As EU Member" <#inc ww2010.pic g110605e.jpg right "" "Croatian Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor meets with Pope Benedict XVI in Zagreb, Croatia, June 4, 2011 (AP)"#> At the start of a two-day trip to Croatia, Pope Benedict says he supports Croatia's membership in the European Union (EU) if the mainly Catholic Balkan nation helps to defend Christian values. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Pope-Benedict-Arrives-in-Croatia--123155893.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "New Pakistan bombings avenge death of terrorist Ilyas Kashmiri" About 50 people were wounded in two terrorist bombing explosions in cities in northwestern Pakistan. Both attacks are apparently in revenge for the death of terrorist Ilyas Kashmiri from an American drone strike. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13662773 "BBC"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Cause of Germany's deadly E. Coli outbreak has been found" German officials are blaming the E. coli outbreak on a farm that grows bean sprouts in Lower Saxony state. There have been over 2,000 illnesses, and 21 deaths. More women than men have gotten sick, because women eat more bean sprouts than men do. <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-06-05/death-toll-from-german-e-coli-at-22-sprouts-eyed-as-source.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "IRS is delaying income tax refunds for adoption tax credit" The IRS is stalling on refunding taxes to people claiming the adoption tax credit. The tax credit is supposed to partially offset the $30,000 cost of adopting a special needs child. <#stdurl http://money.cnn.com/2011/06/02/pf/taxes/adoption_tax_credit_refund_delay/?section=money_latest "CNN"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Henry Kissinger may tackle World Soccer" <#inc ww2010.pic g110605c.jpg right "" "Henry Kissinger"#> I must admit that I've been ignoring the major scandal going on in the World Soccer Association (Fédération Internationale de Football Association - FIFA), since it had no discernible geopolitical significance. The scandal involves alleged kickbacks over choice of cities to hold the World Cup tournaments. But this is definitely worth a mention. Geopolitical expert and Nobel Peace Prize winner Henry Kissinger is considering an offer from FIFA to join their anti-corruption watchdog committee. Kissinger was also a member of the reform panel set up by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) after the scandal over Salt Lake City's winning bid to host the 2002 winter Olympics. I suppose that if Kissinger can't save FIFA, then no one can. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/05/us-soccer-fifa-kissinger-idUSTRE7541YZ20110605 "Reuters"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=801 "6-Jun-11 News -- Portugal throws out Socrates, hoping to avoid Greece's fate"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110605b 5-Jun-11 News -- Yemen's VP takes power, as President Saleh is evacuated to Saudi Arabia =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110605b.head 5-Jun-11 News -- Yemen's VP takes power, as President Saleh is evacuated to Saudi Arabia =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110605b.keys Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, Hashid tribal federation, Sadiq al-Ahmar, Gulf Cooperation Council, Al-Qaeda on Arabian Peninsula =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110605b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110605b.date 5-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110605b.txt1 Collapse of GCC Mediation Efforts =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110605b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Yemen's VP takes power, as President Saleh is evacuated to Saudi Arabia" It turns out that the injuries inflicted on Yemen's president Ali Abdullah Saleh were far more serious than anyone was admitting on Friday. There were injuries to his head and face, and shrapnel has punctured his lungs, near his heart. We reported that he gave a radio address on Friday, but there are suspicions that someone else gave it for him. He has been moved to Saudi Arabia for medical treatment, according to <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/201164164346765100.html "Al-Jazeera."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110604.jpg center "" "Yemen's Vice President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi"#> In the meantime, Vice President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi has taken power, according to <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/06/04/yemen.unrest/ "CNN."#> According to the constitution, if Saleh doesn't recover, then Hadi will be in charge for 60 days, at which it will be necessary to hold an election. Saleh was wounded on Friday, after several weeks of continually escalating violence in Yemen, appearing to approach a civil war between Saleh's forces and forces loyal to the Hashid tribal federation led by Sadiq al-Ahmar, a former Saleh ally, and now a bitter enemy. On Friday, mortar shells hit a mosque in the presidential palace where Saleh and his guards were at midday prayers. Several guards were killed or wounded. Al-Ahmar has denied being responsible for the attack, but the attack itself is considered to a violation of Islamic principles since the target was a mosque. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Collapse of GCC Mediation Efforts" The Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has been trying to mediate the conflict for a number of weeks. On three occasions, Saleh agreed verbally to step down, and promised he would sign the written agreement with those terms. On all three occasions, he made some feeble excuse at the last minute, and refused to sign. The GCC gave up the mediation effort, but the terms of the agreement that Saleh refused to sign called for Saleh to step down after 30 days, and then turn the government over to Vice President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, who would then call for an election. So, it's now beginning to look like Karma has taken charge, and is forcibly bringing about the the very agreement that Saleh refused to sign. Yemen is a highly unstable country, and is the headquarters of Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), currently the most dangerous al-Qaeda-branded jihadist group in the world. Thus, there's a feeling that anything could happen now. Here are some things to watch for in the days to come:
[youtube O5ZyqEQyKNM nolink]
=inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Hong Kong and Taiwan commemorate China's Tiananmen Square massacre" <#inc ww2010.pic g110604d.jpg right "" "Iconic photo of 'tank man' - student blocking row of tanks in Tiananmen Square"#> On June 4, 1989, the Chinese government sent tanks and soldiers into the square in central Beijing to crush weeks of pro-democracy demonstrations by massacring hundreds of young unarmed protesters. The massacre launched the Falun Gong anti-government movement in China, and the Wild Lily pro-independence movement in Taiwan. On Saturday, thousands of people in Hong Kong and Taiwan commemorated the event with a candlelight vigil. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Thousands-Mark-Anniversary-of-Chinas-Tiananmen-Square-Crackdown-123159818.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "DoD Secretary Gates promises to honor Asia commitments" At a 27-country Security Summit in Singapore on Saturday, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates promised that the U.S. will honor its commitments to Asia, by increasing its port calls, naval engagements and multilateral training with countries throughout the region. The remarks were apparently targeted at an increasingly militaristic China. Gates also said that it was urgently necessary for countries in the region to agree on a "multi-lateral mechanism" to settle territorial disputes with China. "I fear without rules of the road... that there will be clashes in the South China Sea," <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Gates-US-Putting-Money-Where-Mouth-Is-in-Asia-123150748.html "VOA"#> and <#stdurl http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Asia/Story/STIStory_676124.html "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "France proposes to lead a new Mideast peace process" The peace process is dead! Long live the peace process! Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has accepted a French proposal to convene Israeli and Palestinian negotiators in Paris in July to discuss reviving peace talks. Israel is considering the proposal. (What's that old saying about people who do the same things over and over, expecting different results?) <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Palestinians-Accept-French-Proposal-for-Mideast-Talks-123165563.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syrians, Lebanese cancel marches, while Israelis protest" As we've previously reported, Palestinian activists planned "Naksa Day" cross-border marches of Palestinian refugees and their descendants from Syria and Lebanon into Israel. Lebanon's march was canceled yesterday, in the face of Lebanese government steps to prevent it. Now, in response to the "setback," Syrian activists announced that their march will be postponed, and that rallies will be held instead. "Naksa Day" commemorates the 1967 six-day war. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/ArtsAndCulture/Entertainment/Article.aspx?id=223614 "Jerusalem Post"#> =// =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Thousands of Israelis protest in favor of a Palestinian state" On Saturday, thousands of left-wing Israelis protested in Tel Aviv, chanting, "Netanyahu says no - we say yes to a Palestinian state." The demonstration included members of The Labor Party, Meretz, Hadash and Peace Now. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/NationalNews/Article.aspx?id=223595 "Jerusalem Post"#> =// =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Obama's/Netanyahu's dueling speeches leave Arabs cold" While the speech by Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu infuriated Arabs and Palestinians, President Barack Obama's two speeches on Mideast peace left them cold. They applauded Obama's "direct and frontal assault on Netanyahu's hard-line positions." But the failure of Obama to say anything to advance the peace process made the entire message fall flat. Arabs and Palestinians were already disappointed in Obama's lack of action following his Cairo speech, and now they have given up. <#stdurl http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-zogby/letter-from-the-arab-worl_b_871288.html "HuffPost/James Zogby"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Palestinians storm gate at Gaza/Egypt Rafah Crossing" Egypt has permanently opened the Rafah crossing to allow travel back and forth between Gaza and Egypt, but the gate has been subject to frequent closures. On Saturday, Palestinians traveling to Egypt stormed a gate after waiting for hours in buses. They pushed through the gate, but Egyptians escorted them back into Gaza. <#stdurl http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/06/04/egypt.gaza.border/ "CNN"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syrian protesters turn against Iran and Hizbollah" Up until now, Hizbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah was worshipped in the Arab world, because he was seen as a hero of anti-Israeli resistance, especially after he freed South Lebanon from Israeli occupation in 2000. However, Nasrallah's full-throated support for Syria's Bashar al-Assad has turned Syria's protesters against Nasrallah for the first time. <#stdurl http://observers.france24.com/content/20110603-angry-syrian-protesters-turn-iran-hezbollah "France 24"#> Syria's protesters are also turning against Iran, a month after a delegation of the Iranian police and Revolutionary Guards went to Damascus and advised Assad how to crush the protesters. Iran's "method" for crushing protesters is very simple, according to the article: Do not fire into the crowd, but make targeted arrests of protesters who are then tortured. In short, it is to terrorize the demonstrators to avoid a bloodbath too conspicuous. (However, a number of recent news reports indicate that Syrian security forces have openly fired into the protesters' crowds.) <#stdurl http://tempsreel.nouvelobs.com/actualite/monde/20110511.OBS2894/quand-l-iran-aide-la-syrie-a-mater-la-contestation.html "Nouvel Observateur"#> / <#stdurl http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Ftempsreel.nouvelobs.com%2Factualite%2Fmonde%2F20110511.OBS2894%2Fquand-l-iran-aide-la-syrie-a-mater-la-contestation.html&sl=fr&tl=en&hl=&ie=UTF-8 "Translation"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=800 "5-Jun-11 News -- Yemen's VP takes power, as President Saleh is evacuated to Saudi Arabia"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110604b 4-Jun-11 News -- China's economy slowing, with possible worldwide consequences =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110604b.head 4-Jun-11 News -- China's economy slowing, with possible worldwide consequences =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110604b.keys Generational Dynamics, China, Commodities =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110604b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110604b.date 4-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110604b.txt1 It's beginning to look like 2008 all over again =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110604b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China's economy slowing, with possible worldwide consequences" I've often written that as bad as America's economy is, China's economy is in much more trouble. And now, after a week of extremely bad economic news in U.S. housing, manufacturing, and unemployment, it appears that China's economy is also showing signs of heading downward, with major consequences for the rest of the world. <#inc ww2010.pic g070808b.jpg center "" "Bird's Nest - Beijing Olympics stadium (Xinhua)"#> International commodities markets are "starting to look a lot like 2008," according to Standard & Poor's analyst Scott Sprinzen, quoted by <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-02/sudden-china-slowdown-may-mean-50-to-75-drop-in-commodities-s-p-says.html "Bloomberg."#> Recall that China's overheated economy was sucking up commodities early in 2008. But as the Beijing Olympics games approached in August, China's economy sank and China's commodities purchases fell. By the end of the year, trade and transportation had collapsed around the world, and the Baltic Dry Index (a measure of commodities shipping) had fallen an incredibly 95%. As I described it at the time, it was like the science fiction movie, "The Day the Earth Stood Still," except that it wasn't science fiction. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e081215 ""World wide transportation and trade sink farther into deep freeze.""#>) A slowdown in China's economy would have a similar effect today. Commodities prices could esily fall 25-40%, and might fall as much as 75%, according to Sprinzen. And a slowdown IS occurring. Two surveys released Wednesday reveal that Chinese manufacturers expanded in May at their slowest pace in nine months, according to the <#stdurl http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-news/wheels-start-to-slow-at-chinas-factories/article2042590/ "Globe&Mail."#> CBS Business News blogger <#stdurl http://www.bnet.com/blog/sports-entertainment/the-cracks-in-china-8217s-economy-are-already-beyond-repair/371 "Constantine von Hoffman"#> has provided a list of some of the signs that China's economy is melting down:Show No Mercy "Despite numerous setbacks to his disgraced regime, Moammar Gadhafi continued Tuesday to display his trademark obliviousness toward reality, and with his people’s suffering unabated, it is time for the international community to take decisive action to get this criminal out of office – and Libya – as soon as possible."It's pretty clear now that this is not going to happen. There's no clear objective on the part of Nato, but Gaddafi's forces are following their own clear objective that they stated right at the beginning: They're going to fight until the last bullet. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Car bomb explodes outside Benghazi hotel" A car bomb exploded outside an international hotel in Benghazi, Libya, destroying four cars, but causing only one injury. <#stdurl http://tripolipost.com/articledetail.asp?c=1&i=6101 "Tripoli Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Libyan migrants flood into Niger" <#inc ww2010.pic g110601c.jpg center "" "Truck carrying migrants fleeing Libya for Niger (BBC)"#> Niger's city of Agadez has been transformed from a bustling trade hub in the middle of the Sahara desert into a refugee centre for the thousands of African migrants fleeing the violence in Libya. Some 65,000 migrants have made the dangerous trip to Agadez since the beginning of May. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13586653 "BBC"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Defense Secretary Robert Gates disagreed with Obama on Libya" U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said his biggest disagreement with President Barack Obama was over the decision to intervene in Libya, which he strongly opposed. "[One disagreement] in two-and-a-half years isn’t bad," he said. He added: "I think one of the reasons it’s probably time for me to leave is that sometimes too much experience can get in the way, and you can get too cautious. It may … be making me more cautious that I ought to be." From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, that would indeed be a major difference between Gen-Xers and the Silent Generation. <#stdurl http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0511/55988.html "Politico"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=796 "2-Jun-11 News -- Fighting continues in Libya, amid chaotic international politics"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110602 2-Jun-11 World View -- Europeans close to deal on Greece =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110602.head 2-Jun-11 World View -- Europeans close to deal on Greece =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110602.keys Generational Dynamics, Greece, Moody's, Anonymous, Bahrain, Syria, Hamza Hamza al-Khateeb, Japan, Naoto Kan, Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110602.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110602.date 2-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110602.txt1 Bad economic data hits stock market =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110602.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Europeans close to a deal to give 12 billion euros to Greece" <#inc ww2010.pic g110601e.jpg right "" "Athens protests in front of the Greek Parliament (AFP)"#> On Thursday, European officials will present a deal to release 12 billion euros to Greece on June 29. That's the date of the next scheduled tranche or installment of the 110 billion euro bailout worked out a year ago. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had been indicating a refusal to pay its share of the tranche, because Greece had failed to meet any of its committed austerity objectives in the past year. Of particular importance was the commitment to lower Greece's debt sufficiently so that Greece could reenter the international bond markets next year, something that now seems impossible. The deal is not completely closed, however. It has to be approved unanimously by the eurozone's finance ministers, who have a meeting scheduled on June 20. <#stdurl http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2011/0602/1224298260341.html "Irish Times"#> Moody's Investor Service reduced Greece's credit rating again, by three notches, deep into junk territory, making it clear that that Greece would not stabilize its financial situation without defaulting. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/01/us-eurozone-idUSTRE74Q1YV20110601 "Reuters"#> A vigilante computer hacker group called "Anonymous" declared Wednesday that it's targeting the IMF website with a distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack, as punishment for forcing Greece to perform austerity measures in return for its 110 billion euro bailout. In a DDoS attack, thousands of computers simultaneously access the web site, so that it becomes unresponsive. "Anonymous" is the same group that called for DDoS attacks against Visa and Mastercard, after they withdrew services from Wikileaks. Anonymous has also targetd the Italian government, Iran and Egypt. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iHE50JFXITTuzkoikIpZmdfnMhTw?docId=CNG.29ed03faa78e78ea49d3f4c5bce8dc44.741 "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Bad economic data hits stock market" A slew of disappointing economic reports is leading to worries that we're not going to have that "V-shaped recovery" after all. GM auto sales for May were down 1.2%, when experts had predicted they would be up 1.5%. Unemployment and manufacturing indicators were poor as well. If you put together news like this with the rapidly deteriorating financial situation in Europe and political situation in the Mideast, as well as the possibility that China's huge real estate bubble might finally burst, then there's definitely a feeling that history is speeding up toward something. Wall Street stocks fell over 2% on Wednesday. <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-markets-20110602,0,774718.story "LATimes"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Bahrain lifts martial law, but brutalizes protesters anyway" Bahrain supposedly lifted the state of martial law on Wednesday, but it's had no effect on the actions of the security forces. Tanks and soldiers withdrew form the center of Manama, the capital city, but numerous police checkpoints remained around the city. Security forces used batons and tear gas to disperse any protests. <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/20116122426560161.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria calls for investigation of mutilated 13-year-old boy" In an effort to manage the international criticism of the killing of Hamza Hamza al-Khateeb (see <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110601b ""1-Jun-11 News -- Mutilated teenage boy becomes symbol for Syria's revolution""#>), the government of Bashar al-Assad has vowed to investigate the incident. The government also promised amnesty for protesters. However, neither of these promises is considered credible by the protesters. The alleged mutilation of Hazma by Assad's security forces has galvanized the protesters, and triggered international condemnation of Assad. <#stdurl http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/africa-mideast/how-a-13-year-old-became-a-symbol-of-syrian-revolution/article2043699/ "Globe and Mail"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Japan's Prime Minister Naoto Kan faces no-confidence motion" Facing defectors from his own party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), prime minister Naoto Kan will face a no-confidence vote on Thursday afternoon. Japan has had a parade of prime ministers in the last five years, as each one has been felled by a vote of no confidence. The principal themes have previously been a generational conflict between the aging war survivor generation and the nationalistic post-war generations, with issues arising out of the use of Korean and Chinese "comfort women" by Japan's armed forces during World War II. However, this time the problems appear to be different, and the main issue is competency in handling the Fukushima nuclear disaster. <#stdurl http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20110602a1.html "Japan Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iran's parliament votes to sue Mahmoud Ahmadinejad" The deeply bitter clash between Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei became even more bitter on Wednesday when the Iran's parliament voted 165-1 to sue Ahmadinejad for firing Iran's oil minister and naming himself as the replacement. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Iran is in a generational Awakening era, and is following a path similar to the political chaos in America in the 1960s, following the Summer of Love in 1967, and the decision of Lyndon Johnson not to run for reelection in 1968. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/8551149/Irans-parliament-votes-to-take-Mahmoud-Ahmadinejad-to-court.html "Telegraph"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=796 "2-Jun-11 News -- Fighting continues in Libya, amid chaotic international politics"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110601b 1-Jun-11 News -- Mutilated teenage boy becomes symbol for Syria's revolution =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110601b.head 1-Jun-11 News -- Mutilated teenage boy becomes symbol for Syria's revolution =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110601b.keys Generational Dynamics, Syria, Hamza al-Khatib, Hillary Clinton, Neda Agha-Soltan, Iran =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110601b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110601b.date 1-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110601b.txt1 Hillary Clinton says this signals 'total collapse' of Syrian regime =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110601b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Mutilated teenage boy becomes symbol for Syria's revolution" A video showing Syrian security services torturing and killing a 13-year-boy named Hamza al-Khatib has galvanized the opposition and has become a symbol for Syria's revolution, according to the <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/31/syria-unrest-teenage-victim-hamza "Guardian."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110531.jpg center "" "Protester holding up a picture of Hamza al-Khatib during his funeral (Guardian/AFP)"#> Hamza was picked up by security forces on 29 April. On May 27, his badly mutilated corpse was returned to his family, who were warned to keep silent. But instead of staying secret, the tortured and swollen body is appearing on a <#stdurl http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-39wdCPyvg "Youtube video."#> (Warning: This video is grossly sickening.) U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's statement, quoted by <#stdurl http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/05/31/idINIndia-57407520110531 "Reuters,"#> reflects an increasingly harsh position towards Syrian president Bashar al-Assad:
"I think what [Hamza's death] symbolizes for many Syrians is the total collapse of any effort by the Syrian government to work with and listen to their own people. Every day that goes by the position of the government becomes less tenable and the demands of the Syrian people for change only grow stronger. President Assad has a choice, and every day that goes by the choice is made by default. He has not called an end to the violence against his own people, and he has not engaged seriously in any kind of reform efforts."<#inc ww2010.pic g090622.jpg right "" "Neda Agha-Soltan - Killed during 2009 Iran uprisings"#> During the Iran uprisings in 2009, a pretty, young girl named Neda Agha-Soltan was shot dead in the streets by security forces, and the entire incident was captured in a graphic <#stdurl http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjQxq5N--Kc "youtube video."#> Neda became an international symbol of Iran's opposition, and opposition forces in Syria hope that Hamza's mutiliation and death will accomplish the same thing for them. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=791 "1-Jun-11 News -- Mutilated teenage boy becomes symbol for Syria's revolution"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110601 1-Jun-11 World View -- Ratko Mladic visits his daughter's grave =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110601.head 1-Jun-11 World View -- Ratko Mladic visits his daughter's grave =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110601.keys Generational Dynamics, Ratko Mladic, Israel, Flotilla, Turkey, Germany, Iran, Angela Merkel, Guido Westerwelle, Cyberwar =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110601.loc ww2010.weblog.log1106 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110601.date 1-Jun-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110601.txt1 Israel faces new aid flotilla from Turkey to Gaza =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110601.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Ratko Mladic visits his daughter's grave" <#inc ww2010.pic g110531b.jpg right "" "Ratko Mladic in court last week"#> Ratko Mladic was extradited to the UN war crimes tribunal in The Hague on Tuesday, to face charges of genocide and war crimes, after a court rejected his legal challenge. However, he was permitted to make a brief side trip to visit his daughter's grave. His daughter committed suicide in 1994 with her father's prized regimental honors pistol when she learned of the atrocities that her father was committing at that time in the Bosnian war. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/serbia/8548037/Mladic-visits-daughters-grave-as-extradition-appeal-is-rejected.html "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel faces new aid flotilla from Turkey to Gaza" A major new confrontation is developing at the end of June, when a new aid flotilla will be leaving Turkey for Gaza. Israel says that it will continue to use the military to enforce its economic embargo of Gaza. This is near the first anniversary of last year's flotilla, when clashes between the flotilla and Israel's army resulted in nine deaths. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Turkey-Israel-Set-for-New-Clash-Over-Second-Gaza-Aid-Flotilla-122879139.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iran 'breaches international protocol' by blocking Merkel's overflight" A routine plane trip by German Chancellor Angela Merkel to Afghanistan was forced to circle over Turkey for two hours on Tuesday morning, when Iran refused to give the plane permission to enter Iranian air space. German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle summoned the Iranian ambassador in Berlin and made clear to him that "such a breach of international protocol against Germany would absolutely not be accepted." <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,765823,00.html "Spiegel"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Cyber combat is an act of war" The Pentagon has concluded that computer sabotage coming from another country can constitute an act of war, a finding that for the first time opens the door for the U.S. to respond using traditional military force. <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304563104576355623135782718.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=791 "1-Jun-11 News -- Mutilated teenage boy becomes symbol for Syria's revolution"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110531b 31-May-11 News -- Yemen's president hangs on to power as clashes spread to other towns =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110531b.head 31-May-11 News -- Yemen's president hangs on to power as clashes spread to other towns =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110531b.keys Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Hashid tribe, Sadeq al-Ahmar, Zinjibar, Taiz, AQAP =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110531b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110531b.date 31-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110531b.txt1 Violence escalates cross Yemen =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110531b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Yemen's president hangs on to power as clashes spread to other towns" Dozens of people have been killed across Yemen on Monday. Previously, fighting had been largely confined to the capital city, Sanaa, but in the last few days, violence has spread to a number of other cities as well, indicating the possibility of a situation spiraling out of control. <#inc ww2010.pic g110530.jpg center "" "Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh (Al-Arabiya)"#> The peaceful demonstrations began in Sanaa in February, with protesters demanding that President Ali Abdullah Saleh step down, after 33 years ofrule. The demonstrators were following the pattern of the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt. Saleh's security forces began using live ammunition and teargas on the peaceful protests in March, and the use of violence has been increasing ever since. Once the killings mounted, the powerful al-Hashid tribe, headed by a former Saleh ally Sheikh Sadeq al-Ahmar, turned against Saleh and joined the protesters. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Yemen violence escalating" <#inc ww2010.pic g110530b.gif right "" "Yemen"#> Several escalations have occurred within the last week. Saleh's forces have begun using bombers to attack Hashid positions, according to <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/05/2011530222457210158.html "Al-Jazeera."#> A group of 300 militants, led by Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) attacked and devastated the town of Zinjibar on Saturday. On Monday, Saleh's forces bombed the militants in Zinjibar, and ground forces fired on peaceful protesters in the city of Taiz for the first time. Some of the military began to defect when the army started firing on unarmed protesters, but they've mostly been loyal to Saleh until recently. However, the militant takeover of Zinjibar has caused a group of dissident generals to defect, accusing Saleh of surrendering to the "armed terrorist group." Analysts who cover Yemen have been expressing different views on what's coming next. According to a <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13592935 "BBC"#> analyst in Sanaa,
"To some extent, the protests have been hijacked, not only by tribalists, but by military defectors and political Islamists. Yet amazingly, given the combined efforts of all these parties, the people in the squares are still trying to remain independent."An analysis by <#stdurl http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/05/30/151161.html "Al-Arabiya"#> says that Yemen is "rapidly descending into chaos and anarchy"#>:
"Deep divisions among his opponents are likely to ensure that Mr. Saleh’s ruling General People’s Congress (GPC) will retain power whether or not the president is around to lead it. GPC’s positioning is also enhanced by divisions within the armed forces with key units commanded by members of the president’s family loyal to the president. The split in the military has moreover deprived Yemen of a powerful institution that like in the case of ousted Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak could tell Mr. Saleh authoritatively that it is time to go. As a result, Mr. Saleh is showing no inclination to leave office before his term ends in 2013. He has several times backed out of a deal negotiated by the Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that would have eased him out of office in exchange for immunity against prosecution. Yemen is meanwhile rapidly descending into chaos and anarchy as a result of Mr. Saleh’s tenacity. It is a situation that the president believes works in his favor whether or not he retains power. It strengthens his claim that only he can prevent Yemen from disintegrating and Al Qaeda’s Yemeni affiliate, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Gulf (AQAP), from taking over parts of the country. It also deepens the divisions in the country and among the opposition which enhances the GPC’s ability to hold on to power if and when he is gone."Yemen has been an important strategic ally of the United States in the fight against terrorism. But it's also become the headquarters of Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula, the most dangerous al-Qaeda spinoff in the world right now. A civil war in Yemen would have dangerous consequences for the world. The offensive is being taken as a result of demands by the Obama administration, but some analysts say that the operation would subject the army to even more public criticism in a country where anti-US feeling runs deep. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=789 "31-May-11 News -- Yemen's president hangs on to power as clashes spread to other towns"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110531 31-May-11 World View -- Germans cave in on Greece bailout =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110531.head 31-May-11 World View -- Germans cave in on Greece bailout =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110531.keys Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Greece, Germany, ECB, Immigration, Mongols, Inner Mongolia, China, Carbon emissions, Climate change, Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt, Libya, China, Drought, Mistresses =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110531.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110531.date 31-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110531.txt1 Pakistan to launch a major military offensive in North Waziristan =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110531.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pakistan to launch a major military offensive in North Waziristan" The Pakistan army, working in conjunction with the U.S. military, will lanuch a military offensive against al-Qaeda and Taliban safe havens in Afghan border regions. Humanitarian agencies have been quietly told to prepare for up to 365,000 displaced people (refugees) as a result. <#stdurl http://www.dawn.com/2011/05/30/aid-agencies-told-to-prepare-for-n-waziristan-evacuation.html "Dawn/Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "At secret meeting Germans cave in to demands for another Greece bailout" In a move that's typical of our times, the German government is shifting positions and will now consider simply providing more money to Greece on June 29 to make its next loan payments. The Germans had previously objected to this approach, since Greece would simply be borrowing more money to pay off existing loans, and had been demanding that Greece default on its debt in some way, preferably by simply extending the time period when payments on its debt would be due. The hope in all of this is that Europe will experience the fabled "V-shaped recovery" that will wipe out existing debt through growth. But the European Central Bank (ECB) has been bitterly opposed to any Greek default, and the Germans are now apparently giving in. However, the fight isn't over yet, since the parliaments of Germany, the Netherlands and Finland will have to approve this new bailout. <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304563104576355514024153114.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> One of the demands to be imposed on Greece in exchange for the new bailout will be rapid privatization of some government assets, including Hellenic Postbank, the post office. Employees of Hellenic Postbank walked off the job on Monday, to protest privatization. Other companies subject to privatization joined the protests, which were peaceful. <#stdurl http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_30/05/2011_392811 "Kathimerini"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Immigration a growing problem in Greece" An outbreak of crime and violence in Athens, Greece, is being blamed on xenophobia stemming from a large influx of immigrants. Greece is the first point of entry for many immigrants, and there are more than 40,000 asylum applications pending in Greece. Racist violence has increasing followed the fatal knifing of a 44-year-old Greek man on May 10, resulting in a "vicious cycle of hatred and barbarism." <#stdurl http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_27/05/2011_392536 "Kathimerini"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Clashes between Mongols and police in China's Inner Mongolia" China's government has had to deal with clashes between Han Chinese and several ethnic minorities in the past few years -- the Tibetans in Tibet, and the Muslim Uighurs in Xinjian province. Now a new problem has arisen, with large anti-government demonstrations by Mongols in several towns in Inner Mongolia. Two people have been killed in clashes with police. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iltkJ33mPgcn8VEfzLDgOcPjM60w?docId=8b5b8c91d99a42288a7bb4095cb5f55b "AP"#> The Beijing government says that a comparison to the Tibet and Uighur riots is "improper." The Mongol riots were triggered by a traffic accident, and while there have been anti-government protests, there have not been clashes between ethnic groups, as there were in Tibet and Xinjiang. <#stdurl http://opinion.globaltimes.cn/editorial/2011-05/660386.html "Global Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Climate change experts shocked by rise in carbon emissions" The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that a record 30.6 gigatons of carbon dioxide was released in the atmosphere in 2010, a rise of 1.6 gigatons from the previous year. The new figures were a shock to climate change experts, who had believed that the poor world economy would like the burning of fossil fuels that cause most of the emissions. Experts called for more government controls, enforceable international agreements, and the spending of vast sums of money to control future emissions. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/emissions/8545585/Record-gas-emissions-puts-drive-to-halt-temperature-rise-at-risk.html "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Generation gap splits Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt" Last Friday's demonstrations in Cairo, Egypt, have caused a further split in Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood. The purpose of the demonstrations were to seek a "second revolution," because of activist impatience with the speed of governmental change. The Muslim Brotherhood had opposed the demonstrations, but the Muslim Brotherhood Youth took part in the demonstrations anyway. Now, the leadership is retaliating by suspending the membership of the Muslim Brotherhood Youth in the Revolution Youth Coalition. The Youth Coalition is deciding its next step. <#stdurl http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/13148/Egypt/Politics-/Muslim-Brotherhood-resists-another-split.aspx "Al-Ahram"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Over 100 Libyan army members defect from Gaddafi" Eight high-ranking Libyan army officers appeared in Rome on Monday saying they were part of a group of as many as 120 military officials and soldiers who had defected from Muammar Gaddafi's side in recent days in Libya. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/over-100-libyan-army-members-defect-from-gaddafi/ "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Drought grips stretches of central and eastern China" <#inc ww2010.pic g110530c.jpg right "" "Parched irrigation canal in central China's Hubei province (Reuters)"#> Harvests of fish and rice in central and eastern China are in danger because of an extended drought, affecting 34 million people across five provinces. The drought also threatens to cut into power production. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/chinas-land-of-fish-and-rice-parched-by-drought/ "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China's schools will try to curb the 'mistress epidemic'" Young girls in China's southern Guangdong province will be taught how to avoid becoming a mistress. Many school and college girls become mistresses because they can make so much money doing so. A mistress from a less renowned school costs a man $3,000 per year, and up to $26,000 for students from the best campuses. <#stdurl http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2072530,00.html "Time"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=789 "31-May-11 News -- Yemen's president hangs on to power as clashes spread to other towns"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110530b 30-May-11 News -- Decoration Day 2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110530b.head 30-May-11 News -- Decoration Day 2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110530b.keys Generational Dynamics, Decoration Day, Civil War, Memorial Day, Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace, Sri Lanka, Bosnia, Rwanda, Lebanon, Émile Geamil Lahoud =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110530b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110530b.date 30-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110530b.txt1 Crisis civil wars -- the worst of the worst wars =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110530b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Decoration Day 2011" Monday is Memorial Day, originally called Decoration Day, a day of remembrance for those who have died in our nation's service. Decoration Day was officially proclaimed on May 5th, 1868, by President Ulysses Grant, to honor and decorate with flowers the graves of fallen soldiers during the Civil War. Later on, this holiday came to include fallen soldiers from any war. <#inc ww2010.pic g110529a.jpg center "" "Brownsville, Texas, Decoration Day parade, 1917 (Robert Runyon #01326)"#> Even today, the American Civil War (or, as some call it, the War of Northern Aggression) stirs great passions and fury, and it's appropropriate to ask why that is, after 156 years. Is the "Stars and Bars" Confederate flag a symbol of heroism or a symbol of racism? It all depends on whom you ask, and don't be surprised if the person shouts his answer at you. <#inc ww2010.pic g110529b.jpg right "" "Confederate Reunion. North Carolina Veterans With Flags, 1917 (Harris & Ewing, LC-DIG-hec-08837)"#> From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the reason that it's so well remembered is because it's one of the three generational crisis wars that America has fought -- the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, and World War II. Other wars -- the Mexican war, even World War I -- are barely remembered except perhaps for their names. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e060727b ""Which war came first, Korea or Vietnam?""#>) Historians always look for the "cause" of a war, as if such a concept makes sense. Was the "cause" of the Civil War slavery, even though Abraham Lincoln had no intention of freeing the slaves? Was the cause economic? Or was there some other cause? For some wars you can name a cause, but for others you cannot. Leo Tolstoy, in his epic work War and Peace, about Napoleon's invasion of Russia, was completely baffled as to the cause of that war:
"It naturally seemed to Napoleon that the war was caused by England's intrigues (as in fact he said on the island of St. Helena). It naturally seemed to members of the English Parliament that the cause of the war was Napoleon's ambition; to the Duke of Oldenburg, that the cause of the war was the violence done to him; to businessmen that the cause of the war was the Continental System which was ruining Europe; to the generals and old soldiers that the chief reason for the war was the necessity of giving them employment; to the legitimists of that day that it was the need of re-establishing les bons principes, and to the diplomatists of that time that it all resulted from the fact that the alliance between Russia and Austria in 1809 had not been sufficiently well concealed from Napoleon, and from the awkward wording of Memorandum No. 178. It is natural that these and a countless and infinite quantity of other reasons, the number depending on the endless diversity of points of view, presented themselves to the men of that day; but to us, to posterity who view the thing that happened in all its magnitude and perceive its plain and terrible meaning, these causes seem insufficient. To us it is incomprehensible that millions of Christian men killed and tortured each other either because Napoleon was ambitious or Alexander was firm, or because England's policy was astute or the Duke of Oldenburg wronged. We cannot grasp what connection such circumstances have with the actual fact of slaughter and violence: why because the Duke was wronged, thousands of men from the other side of Europe killed and ruined the people of Smolensk and Moscow and were killed by them."Tolstoy was completely baffled, but from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, generational crisis wars are part of the human DNA, as much as sex is, and it makes as much sense to ask the "cause" of many such wars as the "cause" of why people have inappropriate sex. A generational crisis war is an elemental force of nature, like a hurricane or an earthquake. In that sense, there are neither "good wars" nor "bad wars." Politicians can neither cause them or prevent them. There are no distinctions over race, religion, creed, skin color, form of government, type of society, or geography. There are only distinctions based on time (generational era) -- a generational crisis war begins only when the generations that survived the previous one are gone. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Civil wars - the worst of the worst" If crisis wars are the worst wars, then crisis civil wars are often the worst of the worst. That's not to say that the Bataan Death March, the slaughter on Normandy's beaches, the firebombing of Dresden, or the nuking of Hiroshima were not horrible events. Atrocities are atrocities, no matter where they're committed. But what makes civil wars the worst of the worst is that people commit these atrocities on their neighbors and loved ones. How many brothers fighting brothers were among the tens of thousands slaughtered at Antietam or Gettysburg? In Rwanda and Bosnia, populations had intermarried, but that did not stop someone from picking up a machete, going next door, killing the father and children, raping the wife, killing her, and then cutting them all up into mangled pieces. Of course, we in the arrogant West think we're above all that. People on both the left and right often portray Africans and Arabs as uncivilized tribal warriors who practice slaughter as a way of life, while we would NEVER do anything of the sort. However, the only real difference is that Africa and the Mideast are on different generational timelines from the West. "We" did exactly the same things, but we crammed it all into World War II. And anyway, Belgrade and Sarajevo were not backward tribal cities. They were modern, cosmopolitan Western cities, and still are, if you forget what happened there in the 1990s. (As an aside, the Sri Lanka civil war that ended in 2009 is under investigation for war crimes. There were plenty of atrocities in the Sri Lanka civil war, but compared to some others I've looked at, it was almost civilized.) During the 2006 war in Lebanon between Israelis and Hizbollah, I was struck by a quote from Lebanese President Émile Geamil Lahoud:
"Believe me, what we get from [Israeli bombers] is nothing compared to [what would happen] if there is an internal conflict [a new civil war] in Lebanon. So our thanks comes when we are united, and we are really united, and the national army is doing its work according to the government, and the resistance [Hizbollah] is respected in the whole Arab world from the population point of view. And very highly respected in Lebanon as well."Lahoud was saying that Israeli warplanes bombing Lebanon's infrastructure really weren't so bad, compared to what could happen. He was reflecting on the day in 1982 when Lebanese Phalangists invaded Palestinian refugee camps, and raped, multilated and slaughtered hundreds or perhaps thousands of refugees. At least Israeli bombers weren't doing THAT in 2006. This is the impact of crisis civil wars, and why they cannot be forgotten. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Decoration Day" This brings us back to Decoration Day. If we're going to send our sons and daughters off to war in an explosion of mutual xenophobia that has no "cause" except the force of nature and the force of hormones on all sides, then we at least owe our veterans their rewards and our care, and our dead soldiers our memories. And Decoration Day is the least we can do for them. As we approach a new "clash of civilizations" world war, the Millennial generation will be the new generation of Heroes, taking their place as the next "greatest generation." These Heroes are our young darlings. Some of them have already gone off to war. When the time comes and the nation is facing its greatest danger, these Heroes will go off to war fearlessly and do their duty. Without any thought for themselves, they'll go proudly and valiantly into battle, and they won't even be sad about it. It's their parents and grandparents in the Gen-X and Boomer generations who'll be standing on the shore in tears, waving goodbye as their ships disappear over the horizon, knowing that we'll never see many of them again, but also knowing that there's no choice. And after it's all over, there'll be millions more reasons for Decoration Day. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=787 "30-May-11 News -- Decoration Day 2011"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110530 30-May-11 World View -- Library of Congress opens the National Jukebox =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110530.head 30-May-11 World View -- Library of Congress opens the National Jukebox =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110530.keys Generational Dynamics, Library of Congress, National Jukebox, Jerome Kern, George M Cohan, Nora Bayes, Serbia Ratko Mladic, Belgrade, AQAP, Yemen, Zinjibar, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Algeria, Qatar, Libya, Greece, ECB =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110530.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110530.date 30-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110530.txt1 Qatar and Algeria face off in Libya =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110530.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Library of Congress opens the National Jukebox" <#inc ww2010.pic g110529c.jpg right "" "Nora Bayes"#> Just in time for Memorial Day, the Library of Congress has opened a new web site containing digitized versions of over 10,000 records made from 1900 to the 1920s. For anyone like myself who love pop classics, this is a gold mine, with some of the greatest musical artists of the time. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/usa/National-Jukebox-Goes-Digital-121783559.html "VOA"#> Here are a couple of selections of songs that are still familiar today: <#stdurl http://www.loc.gov/jukebox/recordings/detail/id/4061 "They didn't believe me"#> is a charming love song from Jerome Kern's 1915 Broadway show, "The Girl from Utah," recorded by vocalists Alice Green (Olive Kline) and Harry Macdonough. It's great to hear this because there are a couple of verses beyond what you normally don't hear today.
"Saudi Arabia and Israel have been cooperating quietly on issues of shared interest for three years starting in the days of Netanyahu's predecessor, Ehud Olmert. But the basis of understanding has broadened and strengthened in the four months since the fall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and the falling-out between Abdullah and President Barack Obama over the latter's Middle East policy. When the Israeli prime minister met Obama at the White House Friday, May 20, ... he made no secret of the relationship he had set in motion with Riyadh. ... Netanyahu let it be understood that his own Palestinian steps had been coordinated with the Saudis and through them with the GCC Gulf emirates and Jordan's King Abdullah II. ... This new connection also gave Netanyahu the chance to disavow any impression of Israel scrapping its military option for preventing Iran attaining a nuclear bomb. ... The prime minister was very clear about this at the White House: Not only has Israel not abandoned this option, but it is determined to exercise it with Saudi assistance - in lieu of the United States if need be. This determination was reflected in his words to Congress: "The more Iran believes that all options are on the table, the less the chance of confrontation," he said. "This is why I ask you to continue to send an unequivocal message: American will never permit Iran to develop nuclear weapons. As for Israel, if history has taught the Jewish people anything, it is that we must take calls for our destruction seriously. We are a nation that rose from the ashes of the Holocaust. When we say never again, we mean never again. Israel always reserves the right to defend itself." [T]he accords Israel has reached with the Saudis do not constitute a formal pact or treaty but rather a row of strategic understandings hammered out in fairly regular, unpublicized encounters between Israeli and Saudi intelligence chiefs at which Netanyahu too has put in an appearance."When President Obama took office, he promised to make a series of steps, starting with his Cairo speech, that would make friends with the entire Arab and Muslim world. Ironically, these steps have backfired, and the U.S. now has fewer friends and allies in the Mideast than it did before. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=786 "29-May-11 News -- Israel and Saudi Arabia form an 'alliance of necessity' against Iran"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110529 29-May-11 World View -- New Fatah-Hamas crisis =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110529.head 29-May-11 World View -- New Fatah-Hamas crisis =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110529.keys Generational Dynamics, Fatah, Hamas, Gaza, Egypt, Rafah crossing, Greece, Libya, Tunisia, Lockheed Martin, cyber war =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110529.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110529.date 29-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110529.txt1 Greece's hopes of averting default dim further =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110529.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "New crisis on the road to Fatah-Hamas reconciliation" A major dispute has erupted between the Fatah and Hamas delegations to the talks in Cairo on implementing a Palestinian reconciliation. The dispute is over a procedural matter which will have major consequences, in that it will determine whether Hamas or Fatah has majority control of the government. <#stdurl http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/13108/World/Region/-New-crisis-on-road-to-Palestinian-reconciliation.aspx "Al-Ahram"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Rafah border crossing opens between Gaza and Egypt" For the first time in four years, the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt opened on Saturday on a permanent basis. According to a Palestinian border official, 450 people crossed from Gaza into Egypt, and only 23 were turned back because of Egyptian security concerns. Males between the ages of 18 and 40 required visas to pass through the crossing, but all others could pass through with no visa. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/VideoArticles/Video/Article.aspx?id=222631 "Jerusalem Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece's hopes of averting default dim further" Greece's finance minister is denying a report that international auditors will report next week that Greece has failed to meet any of its fiscal targets, a condition for getting the 12 billion euros on June 29 as the next tranche in last year's EU bailout commitment. The audit report will be published next week, so we should know within a few days. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/28/us-eurozone-idUSTRE74Q1YV20110528 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "UK denies that it's in secret talks to end Libya fighting" Apparently this all came about because an al-Jazeera reporter happened to be on the same plane as a senior Libyan government minister. He told the reporter that he was in Tunisia for secret talks with "British officials," but could say no more. A British official said: "No representatives of HMG, or intermediaries, are involved in negotiations with the Libyan regime about a ceasefire. Our position is clear. Gaddafi must go, so that the Libyan people can determine their own future." <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/05/201152822214151715.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Hackers steal sensitive data military contractors' networks" Lockheed Martin Corp, the world's biggest aerospace company and the Pentagon's No. 1 supplier by sales, was hit by an unspecified cyber incident, according to the Department of Homeland Security. Unknown attackers broke into sensitive networks of Lockheed Martin and several other U.S. military contractors. The networks contain data on arms under development, but it's not known how much data was stolen. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/29/us-usa-defense-hackers-idUSTRE74Q6VY20110529?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews "Reuters"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=786 "29-May-11 News -- Israel and Saudi Arabia form an 'alliance of necessity' against Iran"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110528b 28-May-11 News -- G8 promises aid to Tunisia, Egypt, but fails on Greece's June 29 deadline =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110528b.head 28-May-11 News -- G8 promises aid to Tunisia, Egypt, but fails on Greece's June 29 deadline =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110528b.keys Generational Dynamics, G8 meeting, Greece, Tunisia, Egypt, IMF, World Bank, Jean-Claude Juncker, George Papandreou, Stephen Harper =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110528b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110528b.date 28-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110528b.txt1 Canadian PM Harper causes a controversy at the G8 meeting =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110528b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "G8 promises aid to Tunisia, Egypt, but fails on Greece's June 29 deadline" At a two-day meeting in Deauville, France, G-8 leaders pledged $20 billion in aid to Egypt and Tunisia over the next three years, according to <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,765280,00.html#ref=nlint "Spiegel."#> The $20 billion will be provided by the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). <#inc ww2010.pic g110527.jpg center "" "G-8 Leaders (EU Observer)"#> The IMF has warned that countries with pro-democracy uprisings in the Mideast and northern Africa will need more than $160 billion in international aid over the next three years. In addition, to the $20 billion from the G-8 countries, there would be $10 billion from Gulf Arab states and $10 billion in bilateral aid to Tunisia and Egypt, according to the <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/27/tunisia-and-egypt-promised-g8-aid "Guardian."#> Jalloul Ayed, Tunisia's finance minister, is very satisfied with the results. "We are truly very satisfied with the very strong, clear and precise statements proffered by all of the G8 nations, and the financial institutions. It's very clear that everybody wants to help us." I think Ayed shouldn't get his hopes too high. The "wealthy" G-8 countries are the United States, Canada, Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy, Japan and Russia. They and other countries have some variation of one of these summit meetings every couple of months, and there are always lots of promises. But once the meeting ends, the pledges are all but forgotten. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "No agreement on how to meet Greece's June 29 deadline" <#inc ww2010.pic g110527b.gif right "" "Greece's debt burden (Spiegel)"#> We're now going to turn to the G-8's (non-) actions on Greece. But as we do so, remember that almost everything that any politician has said in the past year about Greece's debt problem has been a total lie. Also, recall that Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker recently was quoted as saying, "When it becomes serious, you have to lie," as we <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110511 "reported"#> recently. Well, things are VERY serious right now, so we have to assume that politicians are going to be lying like mad. I was amused on Thursday to hear a sound byte on TV from Greece's Socialist party Prime Minister George Papandreou saying something like the following at a press conference: "Please, just leave us alone to work. We're perfectly capable of getting ourselves out of this situation. Just leave us alone to work." I was scratching my head wondering whether by "leave us alone," he meant, "don't give us any more bailout money." But no, I'm sure what he meant was, "stop asking us embarrassing questions that we have no answer for, and just give us the money already." Well, there are big problems looming. Greece is scheduled to receive 12 billion euros on June 29 as the next tranche in last year's EU bailout commitment, and that money will be needed immediately for Greece to make it's next payment on its bonds, according to the <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13577853 "BBC."#> Now, everybody knows that this money will just go down the drain, and Greece will be no better off when the next bond payment is due. The IMF's share of the 12 billion euros is 3.3 billion euros, and the IMF is committed to not paying its share unless an audit proves that Greece will be solvent by 2012, which it will not be. So in an effort to apply pressure to Greece, Jean-Claude Juncker has said that the IMF was assuming that if it decided not to make the 3.3 billion euro payment, then the EU would step in and make it instead. But Juncker added that countries such as Germany, Finland and the Netherlands would oppose that, and such a payment would have to be approved unanimously by all eurozone countries. Therefore, Juncker concluded, the Greeks had better put in much harsher austerity measures. However, Papandreou's Conservative party opposition is refusing to go along with harsher austerity measures, saying that they would "flatten the Greek economy and destroy Greek society." And besides, the argument goes, why bother to suffer if we're just going to default a little later anyway? It's widely believed that a Greek debt default would have worldwide consequences. If Greece defaulted, then there would be a domino effect on Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Belgium, and one or more of them would probably default as well, putting pressure on the entire euro currency. Now that the G-8 has failed to come up with anything, and with the June 29 deadline looming, analysts that I heard were predicting either of two possibilities:
[youtube edFQTZpf8yM nolink]
However, outside of Serbia, Mladic is considered to be a war criminal for the atrocities he committed in the massacre at Srebrenica, considered by many to be the worst war crime since the Holocaust of World War II. The Europeans are cheering his capture as much as Americans cheered the killing of Osama bin Laden. For the most part, the East European crisis wars have been between two great civilizations: The Orthodox Christian civilization and the Muslim civilization. These wars have been fought not only in the Balkans, but also farther east in the Crimea and in the Caucasus. In the Balkans, there is a third great civilization, the Western Christians, represented by largely Roman Catholic Croatia. World War I was triggered when a Serb high school student assassinated Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand on June 28, 1914 in Sarajevo. The spreading war led to the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia, and the destruction of the Ottoman Empire. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the next Balkans war began pretty much right on time -- in 1992, just 78 years after the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand, and 70 years after the final collapse of the Ottoman Empire. The Siege of Sarajevo was directed by Serbian president Slobodan Milosevic, and was executed by his two generals, Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic. Milosevic was captured in 2001, and died in his cell in 2006. Karadzic was captured in 2008, and is still being tried in The Hague on genocide charges. The Orthodox Christian Serbs completely blockaded the city of Sarajevo, allowing no one to get out, or any supplies to get in. They then shelled the Muslim civilians in the city, and Serb soldiers went from one neighborhood to another committing horrendous atrocities. In her book, World on Fire, here's how author Amy Chua describes the Bosnian war: "In the Serbian concentration camps of the early 1990s, the women prisoners were raped over and over, many times a day, often with broken bottles, often together with their daughters. The men, if they were lucky, were beaten to death as their Serbian guards sang national anthems; if they were not so fortunate, they were castrated or, at gunpoint, forced to castrate their fellow prisoners, sometimes with their own teeth. In all, thousands were tortured and executed." =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The Srebrenica massacre." The Bosnian War climaxed in 1995 when tens of thousands of Bosnian Muslims had taken refuge in the Bosnian town of Srebrenica, supposedly a "United Nations Safe Area." The Serbs massacred thousands of Muslim men in what has become known as the Srebrenica massacre. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e050712 ""Srebrenica massacre: Survivors commemorate.""#> In July, 1995, the Bosnian Serb army claimed that the Muslim army was hiding out in Srebrenica, and began shelling the town. The Serbs distributed candy to the children as a trick to separate the men from the women and children. 23,000 women and children were bussed away, while the men were held in trucks and warehouses. By the time it was over, 7,000-8,000 men were massacred. 100,000 were killed during the entire war. Mladic faces 15 counts, including genocide, crimes against humanity and violation of the laws of war in Bosnia-Hercegovina between April 1992 and July 1995, according to <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13561875 "BBC."#> What has particularly infuriated Mladic's supporters is that Serbian President Boris Tadic cooperated in the capture of Mladic, and did so for purely political reasons -- to satisfy the demands of Brussels for Serbia to join the European Union. Thus, French President Nicolas Sarkozy is quoted by the <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/26/ratko-mladic-serbia-eu-membership "Guardian"#> as saying, "[It's] a very courageous decision by the Serbian president. It's one more step towards Serbia's integration one day into the European Union." President Tadic may be a hero to European officials, but to many in Serbia itself, he's comparable to the "Ustashas" - the Croat Nazis who sided with Hitler and betrayed the Serbs in World War II. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=784 "27-May-11 News -- Europe cheers the capture of Ratko Mladic, the butcher of Srebrenica"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110527 27-May-11 World View -- Pakistan shuts down intelligence sharing =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110527.head 27-May-11 World View -- Pakistan shuts down intelligence sharing =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110527.keys Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Syria, Egypt, Gaza, Rafah border crossing, Israel, Palestinian Investment Fund, Flowers =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110527.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110527.date 27-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110527.txt1 Egypt will permanently reopen Gaza border crossing =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110527.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pakistan shuts down intelligence sharing liaison centers" <#inc ww2010.pic g110526b.jpg right "" "Pakistanis in Lahore protesting the U.S. raid to kill Osama bin Laden" (AFP)"#> In further moves to end military and intelligence cooperation with the United States, Pakistan has told the U.S. to cut back its troops in the country, and is closing three military liaison centers, setting back U.S. efforts to eliminate Taliban and al-Qaeda sanctuaries in Pakistan's tribal areas. Pakistan has become increasingly nationalistic and anti-American since the military operation that killed Osama bin Laden. <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-us-pakistan-20110527,0,5278634.story "LA Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Protests are harming Syria's economy" It's Friday again, and time for massive new protests in Syria following midday prayers. The protests are eviscerating Syria's economy, as billions of dollars in projects by investors in Gulf nations are being shut down. <#stdurl http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Business/Middle-East/2011/May-27/Uprising-chills-investment-in-Syria-as-economy-falters.ashx "Daily Star (Lebanon)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Egypt will permanently reopen Gaza border crossing on Saturday" Egypt has announced that it will permanently reopen the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza on Saturday, allowing regular pedestrian traffic. Israelis have objected, saying that the open border will allow weapons to be smuggled into Gaza. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=222448 "Jerusalem Post"#> With the border crossing opening, Palestinian Investment Fund (PIF) is launching a $1 billion fund to invest in the reconstruction of Gaza Strip. Plans are to build an airport, seaport, water desalination plants and an expanded electric network. <#stdurl http://arabnews.com/economy/article432648.ece "Arab News"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Egypt's protesters seek a 'second revolution'" Mass demonstrations are planned for Friday in Cairo Egypt's Tahrir Square, and it's being called "the second revolution demonstration," because of activist impatience with the speed of governmental change. The Muslim Brotherhood is officially staying out of the protests but the Muslim Brotherhood's young guard will participate. <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/zvi-bar-el-is-egypt-looking-at-its-second-revolution-1.364304 "Haaretz"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "News you can use" News you can use: Don't bother buying your wife or girlfriend flowers...she'll only think you're cheating. <#stdurl http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-1390850/Dont-bother-buying-wife-girlfriend-flowers--shell-think-youre-cheating.html "Daily Mail"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=784 "27-May-11 News -- Europe cheers the capture of Ratko Mladic, the butcher of Srebrenica"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110526b 26-May-11 News -- Thailand election portends more ethnic clashes =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110526b.head 26-May-11 News -- Thailand election portends more ethnic clashes =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110526b.keys Generational Dynamics, Thailand, Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck Shinawatra, Abhisit Vejjajiva, Pheu Thai party =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110526b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110526b.date 26-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110526b.txt1 Thaksin Shinawatra's sister may become prime minister =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110526b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Thailand election portends more ethnic clashes" Thailand's politics have certainly been colorful, both figuratively and literally. And now the next exotic comedy scene is occurring. As Thailand approaches elections on July 3, the opposition Pheu Thai party is putting up the beautiful Yingluck Shinawatra for prime minister. <#inc ww2010.pic g110525.jpg center "" "Yingluck Shinawatra"#> Yingluck is the sister of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, who was toppled in an army coup five years ago. He is currently in exile to avoid a two-year jail term for graft, according to <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/25/us-thailand-election-yingluck-idUSTRE74O4D720110525 "Reuters."#> Thailand's last last generational crisis war was the bloody Cambodian "killing fields" civil war, followed by the Vietnamese invasion of Cambodia, in the late 1970s. This war split Thailand along its traditional fault line: The fair-skinned Thai-Chinese, market-dominant minority living mostly in Bangkok and to the south; and the vast majority, the poor dark-skinned indigenous Thai laborers, mainly from farms in Thailand's north and northeast. The fault line between the classes has turned into the now-famous rallies between the "yellow shirt" élites and the "red shirt" laborer class. In particular, this led to the bloody massacre of red shirts in Bangkok last May, leaving behind an enormously bitter class division. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e100524 ""24-May-10 News -- Les Miserables of Thailand at a turning point.""#>) The massacre followed nearly a decade of game-playing at the national level. Thaksin Shinawatra, the hero of the "red shirt" indigenous Thai class, became prime minister in 2001, and was reelected in 2005. With the red shirts having three times the population of the yellow shirts, it was obvious that they were going to win every election. Thaksin was overthrown in 2006 by the army. Thaksin's party won the next election, but the winner was removed from office because he had hosted a cooking show on TV. (Really!) Another Thaksin ally won the next election, but he was forced from office by large "yellow shirt" rallies. Along the way, the courts ruled that other Thaksin allies should be banned from office. The élites finally got one of their own elected, prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, in the Democrat Party. But now it's time for another election, and the Pheu Thai party is putting up Thaksin's sister Yingluck as their candidate!! Who could make this stuff up? It promises to be a very unpleasant campaign. The general secretary of the Democrat Party has said that Yingluck is not a real candidate, and has accused three other senior members of the Pheu Thai party of terrorism, according to the <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13540956 "BBC."#> Pheu Thai party leaders have filed a complaint with the Crime Suppression Division, accusing the Democrat Party leaders of defamation under the Criminal Code, according to the <#stdurl http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/238940/pheu-thai-asks-ec-to-disband-democrats "Bangkok Post."#> They've also asked the Election Commission to dissolve the Democrat Party. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The consequences of a Yingluck victory" Ever since Yingluck has gotten into the race, the Pheu Thai party has been rising in the polls, and there's a chance that the party will gain enough seats in Parliament to have a governing majority. What's interesting about this situation from the point of view of Generational Dynamics is that it's possible to see in real time how a country moves from one civil war to the next one, decades later. After the last war ended in 1979, Thailand went through a generational Recovery era and part way through an Awakening era with the war survivors trying to guarantee that there would never be another war. But starting about five years ago, the young "yellow shirt" élite minority began taking steps to take power away from the "red shirts," eventually leading to violence in Bangkok last year. The typical pattern is that there are alternating periods of violence and peace, with each period of violence worse than the previous one, until finally there's full scale war after a few decades. If Yingluck's party gains a governing majority, then the Thai-Chinese élites will not tolerate it this time, any more than they did the last time. In particular, they will not tolerate the sister of Thaksin Shinawatra to govern. This will surely lead to another round of political conflict, followed by real violence. The possible victory of Yingluck Shinawatra is a fascinating development, but it portends real ethnic conflict in the "Land of Smiles." (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=781 "26-May-11 News -- Thailand election portends more ethnic clashes"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110526 26-May-11 World View -- Greece deepens Europe's financial crisis =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110526.head 26-May-11 World View -- Greece deepens Europe's financial crisis =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110526.keys Generational Dynamics, Greece, Sisyphus, George Papandreou, ECB, Yemen, Sanaa, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Sadiq al-Ahmar, Hashid tribe, David Cameron, Bashar al-Assad, Tayyip Erdogan, Syria, Turkey, Sochi, Circassians, Kabardino-Balkaria, Russia, North Caucasus =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110526.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110526.date 26-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110526.txt1 Tribal violence in Yemen spreads outside the capital Sanaa =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110526.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Bitter fights over Greece's debt deepen Europe's financial crisis" Some analysts are comparing Greece's Prime Minister George Papandreou to the mythical Sisyphus, because every time he does something to try to reduce Greece's debt, he has to start all over again. <#stdurl http://www.eurointelligence.com/index.php?id=581&type=98&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=3135 "EuroIntelligence"#> Europe's financial crisis continues to grow, as bitter disagreements surface about whether to allow any kind of Greek debt default, and whether such a default would have catastrophic effects, as European Central Bank (ECB) officials are predicting. Moody's Investors Service warned that a Greek restructuring could have a domino effect, leading to downgrades elsewhere. "The full impact on Europe's capital markets would be hard to predict and harder still to control. The fallout would have implications for the creditworthiness [and hence the ratings] of issuers across Europe," Moody's said. <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304066504576343612137520314.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> The unforeseeable consequences of a Greek default are causing bitter fights within Greece as well. One of EU's conditions for a bailout was a consensus about austerity measures from Greece's political parties, but consensus is getting harder and harder to find. The reason is that more and more people believe that austerity measures are useless, since Greece is going to default anyway. According to one analyst, "The Eurogroup is caught on the horns of a dilemma. It has no power to threaten Greece because not paying the financial aid would have unforeseeable consequences for all the parties concerned." <#stdurl http://www.cnbc.com/id/43163652 "CNBC"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Tribal violence in Yemen spreads outside the capital Sanaa" Explosions from heavy shelling can be heard across town in the south of Sanaa, Yemen's capital, indicating that the conflict is now using heavier weapons than the machine guns and the mortars of the last few days. A full scale civil war may have already begun. Residents of Sanaa are now fleeing the city with their belongings, not believing that any part of the city is safe. The tribal violence pits the forces of president Ali Abdullah Saleh against his former ally, Sadiq al-Ahmar, head of the powerful Hashid tribe. <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/video/middleeast/2011/05/2011525221515600687.html "Al-Jazeera"#> The U.S. State Department on Wednesday ordered nonessential diplomats to depart Yemen, and urged all Americans to leave, as security conditions deteriorated. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5h3KiV2NXoiPEBKj-8G22mOFdrKpw?docId=710ce8d7267d4fcb98c6d39a952a9f96 "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "David Cameron confirms continued heavy U.S. role in Libya" At his press conference with President Obama on Wednesday, British PM David Cameron confirmed a continued heavy U.S. role in Libya:"In terms of the U.S. role, I would make this point, which I'm not sure is widely understood in Britain or in Europe — is already a huge number of the sorties and the support and the air assets that are actually bringing the pressure to bear are U.S. assets. There was this enormous effort at the beginning, as the president said, but also a sustained amount of assets that have been used. And as the president said, there are also the unique assets and capabilities that the U.S. has that others don't have that are so vital. And as he said, we all have to ask what is it that we can all do to make sure the pressure is really brought to bear. That is what the British are doing, the French are doing, the Americans are doing. And I know we'll discuss this in the margins of the G8."<#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jqckt3TdrSg636dAnJ_avclHjswQ?docId=0f8143119db14cc49e003a060a37f78c "Associated Press"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria's president Bashar Assad loses Erdogan's support" Turkey's Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan has been supporting Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, with the objective of helping Assad reach a peaceful settlement with the protesters. But now, after three months of "backing a regime which shoots to kill Muslims in the street," and with the number of Syrian deaths rising past 1100, Erdogan is changing policies, and is now actively opposing Assad. Most troublesome is Assad's repression of Kurdish regions in northern Syria, resulting in ferment among the Kurds of southern Turkey. Unless this repression stops immediately, Turkey will take overt action. <#stdurl http://debka.com/article/20967/ "Debka"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Circassians in Caucasus applaud Georgia's recognition of Russia's genocide" The recent resolution by Georgia's parliament, which passed by a vote of 95 to 0, recognizing the mass killings and deportations of Circassians from the North Caucasus in the nineteenth century as "genocide," is bring applause from the Circassians in the province of Kabardino-Balkaria. Estimates are that the bloody and prolonged war between the Russian empire and the Circassians exterminated or deported some 90% of the Circassian population. The war climaxed in 1864 with a victory parade in Sochi by the Russians. The Winter Olympics will be held in Sochi in 2014, on the 150th anniversary of the conflict, and the genocide claims are becoming increasingly important as the Olympics games approach. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37962&tx_ttnews[backPid]=27&cHash=efe53ef1e6df0446c365a41c2a8bd8d5 "Jamestown"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=781 "26-May-11 News -- Thailand election portends more ethnic clashes"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110525b 25-May-11 News -- Palestinians slam Netanyahu's speech to Congress =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110525b.head 25-May-11 News -- Palestinians slam Netanyahu's speech to Congress =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110525b.keys Generational Dynamics, Benjamin Netanyahu, Saeb Erekat, Will Herberg, William G McLoughlin, Nisreen El-Shamayleh =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110525b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110525b.date 25-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110525b.txt1 Netanyanu receives warm reception in Congress =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110525b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Palestinians slam Netanyahu's speech to Congress" America was always a religious nation, but prior to WW II, America was really a Protestant nation, and was fairly hostile to Jews and Catholics, according to historian William G. McLoughlin. (See my 2006 article, <#hreftext ww2010.i.awakening060919 ""President George Bush talks about a 'Third Awakening,' but he has his history wrong.""#>) <#inc ww2010.pic g110524.jpg center "" "Benjamin Netanyahu"#> Two major world events changed this about America: the victory of the godless Communists in the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia in 1917, and then the shock and horror of the Holocaust after WW II. The creation of the state of Israel in 1948 provided a link between conservative Evangelical Christians and Jews, and allowed a common front with Catholics as well to make defense of Israel the symbol of religious pluralism in America by the time of America's generational Awakening era in the 1960s. Jewish writer Will Herberg is quoted in 1955 as saying, "to be a Protestant, a Catholic, or a Jew are today the alternative ways of being an American." In his <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/americas/2011/05/2011524172626343616.html "speech"#> to both houses of Congress on Tuesday, Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu tapped into these emotions, and sought to emphasize that Arabs across the Mideast "Arab Awakenings" are beginning to experience the same thing:
"Israel has no better friend than America. And America has no better friend than Israel. We stand together to defend democracy. We stand together to advance peace. We stand together to fight terrorism. Congratulations America, Congratulations, Mr President. You got bin Laden. Good riddance! In an unstable Middle East, Israel is the one anchor of stability. In a region of shifting alliances, Israel is America's unwavering ally. Israel has always been pro-American. Israel will always be pro-American. ... Support for Israel's security is a wise investment in our common future. For an epic battle is now unfolding in the Middle East, between tyranny and freedom. A great convulsion is shaking the earth from the Khyber Pass to the Straits of Gibraltar. The tremors have shattered states and toppled governments. And we can all see that the ground is still shifting. Now this historic moment holds the promise of a new dawn of freedom and opportunity. Millions of young people are determined to change their future. We all look at them. They muster courage. They risk their lives. They demand dignity. They desire liberty."=inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Netanyahu's warm reception from Congress" Netanyanu's speech was warmly received by Congress, and he received dozens of standing ovations. In terms of the actual content of the speech, it was Netanyahu's turn to take a hard line, following the lead of President Barack Obama in Thursday's speech last week. In fact, Netanyahu took the most extreme hardline position on every issue. There would be no 1967 borders, no right of return for refugees' descendants, no compromise on East Jerusalem settlements, no withdrawal of Israeli troops from the West Bank, and no negotiations with a Hamas government. And the Palestinians would have to recognize Israel as a Jewish state. Responses from Palestinians were equally hard line. Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said that Netanyahu's speech indicated how unwilling the Israeli leader was to make peace, according to <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/americas/2011/05/2011524151456629671.html "Al-Jazeera"#>:
"We've not heard any new words in Netanyahu's speech in front of congress tonight. He's chosen to dictate, not negotiation. He can make peace with congress, but at the end of the day in terms of everything he said tonight he has proven that we don't have a partner for peace in Israel. ... Reconciliation with Hamas is our number one priority and those who want a two-state solution, who want peace, must know the way to that must go through reconciliation."Nisreen El-Shamayleh, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Ramallah, said that Netanyahu's demands would be seen by Palestinians as asking far too much:
"Netanyahu says he wants to negotiate, but as far as Palestinian officials are concerned there isn't much to negotiate about. He doesn't want to withdraw to 1967 borders, he wants to retain major settlements, he wants to keep Jerusalem as the undivided capital of Israel and he wants the Palestinians to declare that they relinquish the right of return ... and recognise Israel as a Jewish state."Erekat seemed particularly unhappy about Netanyahu's saying that the Palestinians would have to recognize Israel as a "Jewish state." He said that this was a "new condition," and implied that it was a trick to deny the right of return to Palestinian refugees. We now have maximally hardline positions on all sides. This is the outcome I was fearing as soon as I heard Obama's speech last Thursday. What we're witnessing very dramatically is what happens in a generational Crisis era. Whereas the 1990s Unraveling era was a time of maximum compromise, with the Silent generation of WW II survivors still in charge, today we're approaching a time of maximum confrontation, with Boomers and Gen-Xers in charge. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Avoiding panic" A couple of days ago, I wrote that Israel is playing out a generational Crisis era script in an extremely panicked form. The danger is that, even if Israel survives the approaching Crisis era war, it may not survive the subsequent Recovery era, if the United Nations, or its next incarnation, decide that Israel is at fault for starting the war. This would be a kind of "mirror image" of the action taken in 1948 in creating Israel. A couple of web site readers asked me what Israel could be doing differently. I don't know the answer to that question, but I can suggest one possibility:
OBAMA: Israel must accept the 1967 borders with agreed upon land swaps. NETANYAHU: That's fine, Mr. President. Let's agree on the 1967 borders with land swaps, and let's discuss what land swaps you have in mind that will guarantee Israel's security. EREKAT: Only the tiniest land swaps will be considered. The unmodified 1967 borders are sacrosanct.In this template, Netanyahu is the agreeable one and Erekat is the villain, not vice-versa. If I'm not mistaken, this is the kind of technique that Israel used in peace talks in the 1990s, with the result that the Palestinians were always blamed for the collapse of peace talks. If the Palestinians could not agree to a peace plan in the 1990s, then they won't agree today. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=778 "25-May-11 News -- Palestinians slam Netanyahu's speech to Congress"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110525 25-May-11 World View -- China: 'Any attack on Pakistan is an attack on China' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110525.head 25-May-11 World View -- China: 'Any attack on Pakistan is an attack on China' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110525.keys Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Peshawar, China, india, A K Antony, Sadiq Ahmar, Hashid tribe, Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Iran, Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, IMF, Christine Lagarde, Utah, Fox News Channel, Bill O'Reilly, Eurovision, Armenia, Azerbaijan =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110525.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110525.date 25-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110525.txt1 Tribal warfare in Yemen enters second day =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110525.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China: 'Any attack on Pakistan is an attack on China'" Pakistan media are reporting that China has issued an ultimatum to Washington that "Any attack on Pakistan would be construed as an attack on China." Saying that "US, Pakistan near open war," the reports say that the ultimatum was a demand that the US respect Pakistan's sovereignty in the aftermath of the bin Laden operation. This ultimatum was reportedly delivered at the May 9 China-US strategic dialogue and economic talks in Washington. <#stdurl http://paktribune.com/news/index.shtml?239616 "Pakistan Tribune."#> In today's <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110525b "main article,"#> I discussed how positions have hardened substantially in the last week between the Palestinians and Israelis, and that this hardening is going to continue. This is characteristic of generational Crisis eras. In the case of Pakistan, the success of American's violation of Pakistan's sovereignty was a great shock to them, and the anger appears to be growing. Positions are hardening in India, as well. India's Defence Minister A K Antony said that the killing of bin Laden was "a watershed in the global war on terror," and that, "the ripples of this event will have wide ranging impact on our strategic neighbourhood." He added that finding bin Laden in Abbottabad, deep inside Pakistan, has "internationally stamped Pakistan’s position as the core of terrorist activities in the region." <#stdurl http://news.outlookindia.com/item.aspx?722604 "Outlook India"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "New suicide bombing in Pakistan" A suicide car bomber struck a police facility in an army cantonment in Peshawar, in Pakistan's northwest, early Wednesday. One person was killed, and 14 injured, in the latest attack, only a couple of days after a major 18-hour attack on a naval base in Karachi. Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Pakistan's Taliban terrorist group, is assumed to be the perpetrator again, although no one has yet taken credit. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hiq2yiR9QpCxQIK5SBvvbYu8bgVg?docId=4cf68cfd30c7403d8bb0ed5ecf6a9c43 "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Tribal warfare in Yemen enters second day" Hundreds of tribesmen loyal to Sadiq Ahmar, head of the powerful Hashid tribe, are in open warfare with the security forces of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who is refusing to step down despite massive anti-government demonstrations. It's feared that the clashes of the last two days could spiral into worse violence, or full scale civil war. <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-yemen-fighting-20110525,0,4953269.story "LA Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Ahmadinejad escapes injury in Iran oil refinery explosion" An explosion at Iran's largest and oldest oil refinery killed at least four people and injured 25 during a visit by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to inaugurate an upgrade at the sprawling plant. Sabotage or an assassination attempt on Ahmadinejad's life are suspected, but state media says it was an accident caused by a gas leak. Either way, the explosion is highly embarrassing to the regime. <#stdurl http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/explosion-at-iran-oil-refinery-kills-four-during-ahmadinejad-visit "The National (UAE)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "France's Christine Lagarde plans to run for IMF chief" <#inc ww2010.pic g110524c.jpg right "" "Christine Lagarde"#> France's Finance Minister Christine Lagarde plans to announce on Wednesday her candidacy to be the new had of the International Monetary Foundation (IMF), following the resignation of Dominque Strauss-Kahn, who is embroiled in a criminal sex scandal. Sources say that the EU has reached a consensus supporting Lagarde. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/24/us-imf-lagarde-idUSTRE74N79P20110524 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Gold and silver coins to be legal currency in Utah" Crazy idea of the week: Utah legislators want to make Utah the first state in the country this month to legalize gold and silver coins as currency. One banker plans to offer a debit card that will be backed by the user's gold and silver coins. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iVwtsZHKs7A_uQEDwUlnH2P1jJ3Q?docId=fdc78f4b243f4e1facc5982a1fc02836 "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Poll: Fox News Channel and Bill O'Reilly are 'most trusted'" A poll by Boston's Suffolk University finds that network news is dying, and that Fox News Channel is the most trusted news source. Fox's Bill O'Reilly came out on top as the most trusted individual. <#stdurl http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2011/05/20/poll-fox-oreilly-most-trusted-news-sources "U.S. News"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Armenians grapple with Eurovision dilemma" <#inc ww2010.pic g110524b.jpg right "" " Nigar Jamal and Eldar Gasimov, also known as Ell/Nikki from Azerbaijan, 2011 Eurovision winners"#> Armenia and Azerbaijan are bitter enemies, technically still at war, even though a cease-fire agreement was signed in 1994, leaving the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory unresolved. But now Armenians are facing a major new problem, after Azerbaijan won this year's glitzy Eurovision pop music competition, meaning that next year's competition will be held in its capital, Baku. The dilemma has split Armenians, some of whom say that Armenians cannot compete in Baku, and others who say that competing is a matter of national honor. <#stdurl http://www.eurasianet.org/node/63525 "Eurasia Net"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=778 "25-May-11 News -- Palestinians slam Netanyahu's speech to Congress"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110524b 24-May-11 News -- Multiple financial crises in Europe affecting stock prices =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110524b.head 24-May-11 News -- Multiple financial crises in Europe affecting stock prices =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110524b.keys Generational Dynamics, Greece, Italy, Belgium, Spain, Tobin's q, Shiller's CAPE, China =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110524b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110524b.date 24-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110524b.txt1 Tobin's Q and Shiller's CAPE show market overvalued by 60-75% =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110524b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Multiple financial crises in Europe affecting stock prices" There was a pall over the usually bubbly financial analysts on Monday. It's not that I heard anyone say that financial disaster was imminent, though some hinted at that. It's that pretty much everyone I heard was painting an ominous picture, especially over what's been happening in Europe. <#inc ww2010.pic g110523.jpg center "" "Tobin's q and Shiller's CAPE indexes (Smithers & Co.)"#> And the bad news just poured out of Europe:
"Here are the facts we all must confront. First, the number of Palestinians living west of the Jordan River is growing rapidly and fundamentally reshaping the demographic realities of both Israel and the Palestinian Territories. This will make it harder and harder — without a peace deal — to maintain Israel as both a Jewish state and a democratic state. Second, technology will make it harder for Israel to defend itself in the absence of a genuine peace. Third, a new generation of Arabs is reshaping the region. A just and lasting peace can no longer be forged with one or two Arab leaders. Going forward, millions of Arab citizens have to see that peace is possible for that peace to be sustained. And just as the context has changed in the Middle East, so too has it been changing in the international community over the last several years. There’s a reason why the Palestinians are pursuing their interests at the United Nations. They recognize that there is an impatience with the peace process, or the absence of one, not just in the Arab World — in Latin America, in Asia, and in Europe. And that impatience is growing, and it’s already manifesting itself in capitals around the world. ... But the march to isolate Israel internationally — and the impulse of the Palestinians to abandon negotiations –- will continue to gain momentum in the absence of a credible peace process and alternative. And for us to have leverage with the Palestinians, to have leverage with the Arab States and with the international community, the basis for negotiations has to hold out the prospect of success. And so, in advance of a five-day trip to Europe in which the Middle East will be a topic of acute interest, I chose to speak about what peace will require."This is an interesting generational analysis, provided by President Obama, to explain why a peace deal is required very soon, and why the Israelis have to change direction. However, it's actually a generational analysis that explains why no peace deal is possible. Just because you understand the problem doesn't mean that a solution exists. And that's the real irrationality of this situation. Obama understood that the existing "peace process," which really involves kicking the can down the road, cannot possibly work. And so, the youthful Gen-X president sat down with his advisors, and they came up with a new "peace process." But surely it must have occurred to them that the new "peace process" has no more chance of working than the old one. But perhaps the youthful Gen-X president and his advisers, who were once promising to heal the world, could not admit to themselves that the solutions to some problems are beyond their reach. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The next steps" So what happens next? Generational Dynamics tells us that there will be a major new Mideast war, and that gives us a big advantage over most journalist, analysts and politicians, since at least we know where we're going to end up, and they have no idea. There were many people who were furious at President Obama's speech on Thursday because it appeared to sell out the Israelis. I was appalled by his speech, but for an entirely different reason. I don't care whom Obama seems to side with, because I know that a politician can neither cause nor predict what's coming -- in this case, an all out genocidal Mideast war. I couldn't care less what boundaries Obama recommends, because I know for certain, based on generational analysis, that those boundaries are just talk, and they won't be applied. What I was appalled about is, perversely, that Obama's speech was too clear. Instead of obfuscating the issue of boundaries, which is what a politician is supposed to do, he clearly stated the problem in a way that would produce a backlash. And the backlash came in the form of a scolding by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. And now, Obama had to provide a rebuttal on Sunday, and Netanyahu will give a surrebuttal when he speaks to Congress on Tuesday. It's a dreadful chain of events. A web site reader wrote on Sunday that it's important to watch what happens in Jordan. That's certainly true. Even though Jordan's government has had a long-time friendly relationship with the U.S., many of the people of Jordan are Palestinian refugees, and the country is a tinder box that might explode at any time. And a speech like the ones given recently might be the chaotic event that causes the chain reaction that triggers that explosion. As important as Jordan is, I would have to emphasize the importance of Saudi Arabia itself. The rapidity of the recent "tectonic shift" that turned Saudi Arabia from a trusted ally to a potential enemy in only a few weeks is truly frightening. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110521b ""21-May-11 News -- Saudi Arabia advances Gulf Cooperation Council, further cuts U.S. ties.""#>) From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, such rapid changes in attitudes and behaviors indicate that the hostility to the U.S. is much deeper than previously believed, and that some kind of trigger has already occurred (i.e., the incident involving Mubarak). Because of Saudi Arabia's strategic importance as an oil producer and its position on the Persian Gulf, combined with Jordan's strategic relationship with Israel, it's possible that we'll be seeing more major shifts in the next few weeks. Another web site reader wrote the following to me on Sunday, referring to this "tectonic shift":
"I think you should be working hard to figure this out. You are probably one of the only people on the planet that can get even close, and it would be a great boon to have some clarity on who is going to fighting who. I think you have enough analytical skill to come up with some actionable data that could be used to make yourself a bunch of money on the currency markets."I am REALLY flattered to receive this comment, but Generational Dynamics doesn't provide anything close to that level of precision. I've never made any money from Generational Dynamics, and I doubt that I ever will, and I certainly don't have a clue about the Mideast currency markets. But if that's asking too much, it's still appropriate to speculate, based on what we do know, and what we see happening. If Jordan is joining the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), then it's reasonable to speculate that Jordan and the GCC countries will be on one side (the side that opposes Israel and the West). Since the Palestinian factions (Fatah and Hamas) are essentially enemies, does that mean that one or the other will be on Israel's side? Stranger things have happened. I've said in the past that I believe that Egypt could go either way, based on generational reasons: The large majority of the Egyptian population is under 30, and they've never known Israel as anything but an ally. Despite some well-publicized rhetoric and anti-Coptic violence from Egyptian salafists, it's still my opinion that Egypt is more likely to be Israel's ally than Israel's enemy. The key is always the phrase "forced to choose." It's easy to be anyone's friend or enemy, when all that's at stake is rhetoric. Stalin may have hated Britain and the United States with all his heart, but when he was "forced to choose" because the Nazis were invading, he chose the Allies. Egypt may well do the same. But once again, this all speculation, albeit informed speculation. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The survival of Israel in a generational Crisis era" Beyond that, there are some other considerations. As I've discussed in the past with the 2006 invasion of Lebanon, and the recent response to the "invasion" by unarmed protesters, Israel is playing out a generational Crisis era script in an extremely panicked form. There is a Mideast war coming that Israel may not survive. But if the Israelis continue on their current path, and the country DOES survive the Crisis era war, then Israel may not survive the Recovery Era, if the United Nations, or its next incarnation, decide that Israel is at fault for starting the war (just as most people in 1945 blamed Germany for starting BOTH WW I and WW II). If the nation of Israel is going to continue to be in existence in the 2020s, in anything resembling its current form, then the Israelis and their defenders are going to have to become a lot more rational. Unfortunately I don't expect that to happen, and the irrational debate going on right now between Obama and Netanyahu over borders is a good example. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=775 "23-May-11 News -- Obama's new speech backs off on Thursday's Mideast policy announcement"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110523 23-May-11 World View -- Major terrorist attack in Karachi =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110523.head 23-May-11 World View -- Major terrorist attack in Karachi =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110523.keys Generational Dynamics, Karachi, Pakistan, Mehran naval base, Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, P-3 Orion aircraft, Spain, Socialists, Italy, PIIGS, Afghanistan, Taliban =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110523.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110523.date 23-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110523.txt1 Italy joins other PIIGS countries with ratings downgrades =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110523.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Major terrorist attack on Navy airbase in Karachi, Pakistan" <#inc ww2010.pic g110522b.jpg right "" "Pakistan's PNS Mehran naval base, Karachi (Tribune)"#> A well-planned professional terrorist attack was launched on the Pakistan's PNS Mehran naval base in Karachi, Pakistan, on Sunday evening. 12-15 militants attacked from three directions, and carried out simultaneous attacks on different targets. The militants also took some Chinese personel hostage in a building inside the base. Gunfire continued for hours. <#stdurl http://www.dawn.com/2011/05/23/terrorists-attack-navy-airbase-in-karachi-destroy-three-aircraft.html "Dawn"#> The banned terrorist group, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Pakistan's Taliban terrorist group, took credit for the attack. Intelligence reports had warned police and other security agencies that terrorist attacks were planned on army, navy and air force installations. <#stdurl http://tribune.com.pk/story/174154/intelligence-interior-ministry-raised-alert-a-week-ago/ "Express Tribune (Pakistan)"#> The huge explosions and firefights sent a wave of panic and shock through the area. One such explosion destroyed a P-3 Orion aircraft, which the navy had recently acquired from the United States. This is Pakistan's premier anti-submarine attack aircraft. It was feared that a second aircraft was also subsequently lost. <#stdurl http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=6176&Cat=13&dt=5/23/2011 "The News (Pakistan)"#> The assault on the Mehran naval airbase is the latest attack on Pakistan's military installations, and is raising fears about the safety of the country's nuclear arsenal. Pakistan has the fastest growing nuclear arsenal in the world and in a decade could pass France as the fourth-largest nuclear power, so such brazen attacks raise fears that al-Qaeda could acquire nuclear materials, or even a nuclear weapon. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/23/us-pakistan-attack-nukes-idUSTRE74M07J20110523 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Italy joins other PIIGS countries with ratings downgrades" In a surprise announcement on Saturday, S&P's rating service announced a decision to revise downward is outlook for Italy. Of the PIIGS countries (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain), only Italy has escaped the full brunt of the euro zone debt crisis so far. S&P's move does not cause any immediate debt crisis for Italy, but it does make the country more vulnerable. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/22/us-italy-sp-idUSTRE74K17720110522 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Socialists suffer major defeat in Spain" Exit polls indicate that Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero's Socialist party has suffered major losses in regional and local elections on Sunday. (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110522b ""22-May-11 News -- New 'Spanish Revolution' signals electoral change on Sunday""#>) The elections have not ended the anti-government protests, which have now been continuing for eight days. <#stdurl http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/05/22/bloomberg1376-LLM1PX1A74E901-5MURBQF08IG0N9TO1V9IUTT11D.DTL "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Taliban fighters expand their summer offensive in Afghanistan" The Taliban's summer offensive was expected, but that doesn't make it any less violent. On Saturday, a suicide bomber killed six medical students in a major hospital in Kabul, and on Sunday, suicide bombers disguised as border policemen attacked a local government office in eastern Afghanistan, killing seven Afghans. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/3-Police-Killed-in-Afghanistan-122411969.html "VOA"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=775 "23-May-11 News -- Obama's new speech backs off on Thursday's Mideast policy announcement"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110522b 22-May-11 News -- New 'Spanish Revolution' signals electoral change on Sunday =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110522b.head 22-May-11 News -- New 'Spanish Revolution' signals electoral change on Sunday =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110522b.keys Generational Dynamics, Spain, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, Francisco Camps, Guertel scandal, Jean-Claude Juncker, Christine Lagarde, Dominique Strauss-Kahn =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110522b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110522b.date 22-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110522b.txt1 EU official proposes forcing Greece to privatize =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110522b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "New 'Spanish Revolution' signals electoral change on Sunday" What started out as a small gathering last Sunday has ballooned into huge protests in Madrid's Puerta del Sol square, with tens of thousands of protests camped out, protesting austerity measures and government corruption. There were also large crowds in Barcelona, Valencia and smaller cities, according to <#stdurl http://www.tvspain.tv/blog/?p=3026 "TV Spain."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110521.jpg center "" "Protests in Madrid's Puerta del Sol (MarketWatch)"#> The protesters have been peaceful, mostly young people, but including families with small children. The quickly growing size of the spontaneous protests was a surprise to authorities, who declared that they would be illegal on Saturday, the day before Spain's regional elections on Sunday. But protesters ignored the demands to end the protests, and police have allowed them to continue unhindered. The size of the anti-government protests illustrates how deeply the anger at the government of Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero has grown. Polls show that on Sunday his ruling Socialist Party (PSOE) could suffer important losses to the center-right Popular Party (PP). But that's not the biggest threat, according to <#stdurl http://www.marketwatch.com/story/spain-pm-zapatero-on-edge-as-elections-loom-2011-05-19 "Market Watch."#> The biggest threat is a "reckoning of accounts" in the various regions, where in some cases the Socialists have been in power for decades. There is evidence that these governments have been hiding significant amounts of debt, so that as new regional governments take power, this additional debt will be revealed. Spain's economy is already in a precarious position. Unemployment is around 20%, and it's at 42% for people ages 15 to 24, the age group of the principal protesters, who see no hope for themselves in sight, and are referring to themselves as the "lost generation" and "los indignados" (the outraged). But lack of jobs and a devastatingly poor economy are not the only reason for the protests. "We protest against the political situation that allows more than 100 people who are accused of corruption across the country to stand in the next elections," says one protester quoted by the <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13482778 "BBC."#> In fact, one PP candidate, Francisco Camps, is likely to be re-elected as head of the regional government of Valencia, and by the end of the year he's likely to be in court facing bribery charges, according to the <#stdurl http://www.thestar.com/mobile/world/article/995021 "Toronto Star."#> He's just one of many PP politicians caught in what's known as the Guertel scandal. According to a 2009 description by <#stdurl http://www.barcelonareporter.com/index.php?/news/comments/13515/ "Deutsche Presse-Agentur,"#> PP politicians were given tailor-made suits and other clothing items in return for awards for contracts that paid kickbacks. The corruption network has been named Guertel, the German word for "correa" which means "belt." As one of Europe's PIIGS countries (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain), European officials are hoping against home that some miracle will happen, and it won't be necessary to bail out Spain, in the say that Greece, Ireland and Portugal have had to be bailed out. All the European politicians are claiming Spain is completely safe. But let's recall that European politicians have lied over and over again, and Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker recently was quoted as saying, "When it becomes serious, you have to lie," as we <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110511 "reported"#> two weeks ago. By their own admission, it's not possible to believe a word that European financial executives say. They will deny that anything is going to happen until it actually happens. And with a corruption scandal brewing in Spain, "it" might happen to Spain before too long. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Juncker proposes forcing Greece to privatize" One of the many conditions imposed by the EU in return for last year's bailout was that Greece would privatize gas and phone companies, and well as some state-owned banks, and would shut down loss-making state-owned enterprises. But the Greeks have been stalling on doing this, because of public sector union opposition to losing jobs and membership. Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker is now proposing to take the decision out of Greece's hands by creating a "privatization agency," independent of the Greek government, staffed by EU officials. "Henceforth, the European Union will escort Greece's privatization program as if we were conducting it ourselves," said Juncker. Wow! That's going to be one bloody fight. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/21/us-eurozone-greece-juncker-idUSTRE74K22Y20110521 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "France signals a shift toward approving a 'rescheduling' of Greece's debt" For the first time, a French official is suggesting that France might go along with the 'soft restructuring' of Greek debt that we've been hearing so much about these last few days. Under this plan, Greece would be given more time to pay off its debts, though it would still technically be a default. French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde, who is being named as a candidate to replace Dominique Strauss-Kahn as head of the IMF, said that France might support a restructuring, provided that the banks holding Greek debt agreed "voluntarily." However, the European Central Bank (ECB) has expressed bitter opposition to any kind of default, since it could trigger a chain reaction that could put all of Europe's financial system in danger. <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704816604576335361278895404.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iran applauds Spain's anti-government protests" Iran's state-run news service is applauding the Spain protests:
"It can't be ignored that the spontaneous burst of people on the streets draws strong parallels to the North African and the Middle East revolutions, which saw youngsters take a stand, initiating gatherings through social media, overnight camps and defying authorities - some are asking could this be the start of Europe's Tahir Square?"I have to say that these guys really have balls to say something like that, after Iran's similar protests were turned into a bloody massacre. <#stdurl http://www.presstv.com/detail/180894.html "Press TV"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=773 "22-May-11 News -- New 'Spanish Revolution' signals electoral change on Sunday"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110522 22-May-11 World View -- Greece commemorates Battle of Crete =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110522.head 22-May-11 World View -- Greece commemorates Battle of Crete =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110522.keys Generational Dynamics, Greece, Battle of Crete, Bahrain, Pakistan, India, China, Arab League, G-8, France, Marseille, Newt Gingrich, Abba =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110522.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110522.date 22-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110522.txt1 China-Pakistan alliance enhanced by 'Shaheen-1' war game =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110522.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece commemorates the 70th anniversary of the Battle of Crete" <#inc ww2010.pic g110521b.jpg right "" "Monument to the Greek victory over the Nazis at the Battle of Crete (Kathimerini)"#> On May 20, 1941, Hitler's elite paratroopers invaded Crete overnight and were thwarted by allied forces and Cretan civilians. The three day commemoration will end with several events on Sunday. <#stdurl http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite6_3_19/05/2011_391486 "Kathimerini"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Ships carrying Shia Iranian activists to Bahrain forced to return" Two ships carrying Shia Iranian activists on their way to support the anti-government protests in Bahrain were ordered to return to Iran by the Iranian government, after facing "threats" from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) warships. Bahrain's population is 2/3 Shia Muslim, but the government is Sunni Muslim, as are all the members of the GCC. <#stdurl http://www.paltelegraph.com/world/world-news/9210-iranian-aid-ships-turned-back-from-bahrain.html "Palestine Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Humiliation and desperation may turn Pakistan to strike India" Pakistan's army and intelligence services were severely humiliated by the U.S. raid that killed Osama bin Laden, since bin Laden lived openly near an army academy for years, and because the raid was not detected by the armed forces until it was over. According to an Indian analyst, the result is a desperation that may lead to Pakistan provoking a border incident with India, to give themselves an opportunity for a retaliatory strike against India, to regain some prestige. (In a generational Crisis era, a desperate act like this has a very high probability of leading to all out war.) <#stdurl http://www.eurasiareview.com/pakistan-army-and-isi-dangerous-mix-of-humiliation-and-desperation-analysis-18052011/ "Bahukutumbi Raman"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China-Pakistan alliance enhanced by 'Shaheen-1' war games" In March, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) and China's People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) conducted a joint combat aircraft war exercise over Pakistani soil, dubbed "Shaheen-1" (meaning "Eagle" in Urdu). Joint ground maneuvers are planned for later this year. 2011 is celebrated by both countries as the "Year of Pakistan-China Friendship." <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37959&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=c47cb66f48c4664af744aa1103dbfde7 "Jamestown"#> In a deal clinched on Friday, China will provide 50 more fighter jets to Pakistan, with delivery within six months. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hH7QDKhd7lptIUGT-nsHRKtoktMQ?docId=882475eab8634ddcae50e5c58349b42e "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Palestinians call for Arab League meeting following Obama's speech" Palestinian leaders are requesting a special meeting of the Arab League to discuss the consequences of Obama's speech, supporting a Palestinian state based on 1967 borders, and Netanyahu's firm rejection of the proposal. <#stdurl http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/05/21/mideast.peace.talks/ "CNN"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Thousands protest the G-8 summit in France." Thousands of anti-globalisation activists protested in the French city of Le Havre on Saturday against a G8 summit of rich nations to be held in Deauville at the end of the week. The Group of Eight nations, or "wealthy nations," are Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States. Saturday's protesters represented some 35 anti-globalisation, anti-nuclear, socialist, labour and human rights groups. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5grs-zjipfL7w6RVnn6MsdEINmEuQ?docId=CNG.66034d3cb939321c07cff1d39eac41c7.1a1 "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Migration spoiling the harmony in France's Marseille" France's southern port city of Marseille has been a model of successful integration, but with the latest influx of migrants from Algeria, Tunisia and Moroco, the era of harmony may be coming to an end. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,763442,00.html "Spiegel"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Newt Gingrich is an avid Abba fan" <#inc ww2010.pic g110521c.jpg right "" "Newt Gingrich and Abba"#> Newt Gingrich's cell phone ringtone is Abba's hit "Dancing Queen." The secret came out during a campaign stop when his cell phone rang. <#stdurl http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2011/05/newt-gingrich-hearts-his-abba-ringtone "NY Daily News"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=773 "22-May-11 News -- New 'Spanish Revolution' signals electoral change on Sunday"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110521b 21-May-11 News -- Saudi Arabia advances Gulf Cooperation Council, further cuts U.S. ties =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110521b.head 21-May-11 News -- Saudi Arabia advances Gulf Cooperation Council, further cuts U.S. ties =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110521b.keys Generational Dynamics, King Abdullah, Saudi Arabia, Hosni Mubarak, Bahrain, Nawaf Obaid, Gulf Cooperation Council, Arab League, Jordan, Morocco, Benjamin Netanyahu =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110521b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110521b.date 21-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110521b.txt1 The rise of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110521b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Saudi Arabia advances Gulf Cooperation Council, further cuts U.S. ties" A major realignment led by Saudi Arabia is in progress in the Mideast, triggered by the Arab uprisings and by anger in the Gulf states over President Obama's responses, especially with respect to Iran. <#inc ww2010.pic g110520.jpg center "" "Saudi King Abdullah"#> The incident that started the Saudis on the path to realignment was President Obama's humiliation of long-time ally Hosni Mubarak, calling for him to step down in the face of the student protests. This raised the fear the Obama would also call for Saudi King Abdullah to step down, and led to the conclusion that the U.S. could no longer be trusted. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110211 ""11-Feb-11 News -- Egypt 'contagion' threatens stability of Saudi Arabia.""#>) The uprising in Bahrain resulted in further sharp disagreements. The Saudis sent 1,000 troops into Bahrain to take over non-combat roles, so that the Bahraini security forces would be freed up to combat the protesters. Obama said that he opposed this move by the Saudis, and in his speech on Thursday, Obama condemned the "repressive military action." For the Saudis and the other Gulf nations, human rights for the Bahrain protesters is not the issue. What IS the issue is the concern that Iran is trying to destabilize the entire region, and that the Obama administration either does not care about this threat or is not concerned about it. According to Nawaf Obaid, senior fellow at the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, writing for the <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/amid-the-arab-spring-a-us-saudi-split/2011/05/13/AFMy8Q4G_story.html "Washington Post"#> earlier this week:
"A tectonic shift has occurred in the U.S.-Saudi relationship. Despite significant pressure from the Obama administration to remain on the sidelines, Saudi leaders sent troops into Manama in March to defend Bahrain’s monarchy and quell the unrest that has shaken that country since February. For more than 60 years, Saudi Arabia has been bound by an unwritten bargain: oil for security. Riyadh has often protested but ultimately acquiesced to what it saw as misguided U.S. policies. But American missteps in the region since Sept. 11, an ill-conceived response to the Arab protest movements and an unconscionable refusal to hold Israel accountable for its illegal settlement building have brought this arrangement to an end. As the Saudis recalibrate the partnership, Riyadh intends to pursue a much more assertive foreign policy, at times conflicting with American interests. ... Iran’s efforts to destabilize its neighbors are tireless. As Riyadh fights a cold war with Tehran, Washington has shown itself in recent months to be an unwilling and unreliable partner against this threat. The emerging political reality is a Saudi-led Arab world facing off against the aggression of Iran and its non-state proxies. Saudi Arabia will not allow the political unrest in the region to destabilize the Arab monarchies — the Gulf states, Jordan and Morocco. In Yemen, the Saudis are insisting on an orderly transition of power and a dignified exit for President Ali Abdullah Saleh (a courtesy that was not extended to Hosni Mubarak, despite the former Egyptian president’s many years as a strong U.S. ally). ... In Iraq, the Saudi government will continue to pursue a hard-line stance against the Maliki government, which it regards as little more than an Iranian puppet. In Lebanon, Saudi Arabia will act to check the growth of Hezbollah and to ensure that this Iranian proxy does not dominate the country’s political life. Regarding the widespread upheaval in Syria, the Saudis will work to ensure that any potential transition to a post-Assad era is as peaceful and as free of Iranian meddling as possible. ... Saudi Arabia has the will and the means to meet its expanded global responsibilities. In some issues, such as counterterrorism and efforts to fight money laundering, the Saudis will continue to be a strong U.S. partner. In areas in which Saudi national security or strategic interests are at stake, the kingdom will pursue its own agenda. With Iran working tirelessly to dominate the region, the Muslim Brotherhood rising in Egypt and unrest on nearly every border, there is simply too much at stake for the kingdom to rely on a security policy written in Washington, which has backfired more often than not and spread instability. The special relationship may never be the same, but from this transformation a more stable and secure Middle East can be born."=inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The rise of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)" The above is all just talk, but there is solid action being taken as well to support the talk. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is an alliance of six Sunni Muslim states around the Persian Gulf. There are two steps being taken to turn the GCC into a major military alliance not connected to the U.S.:
"Israel appreciates President Obama’s commitment to peace. Israel believes that for peace to endure between Israelis and Palestinians, the viability of a Palestinian state cannot come at the expense of the viability of the one and only Jewish state. That is why Prime Minister Netanyahu expects to hear a reaffirmation from President Obama of U.S. commitments made to Israel in 2004, which were overwhelmingly supported by both Houses of Congress. Among other things, those commitments relate to Israel not having to withdraw to the 1967 lines which are both indefensible and which would leave major Israeli population centers in Judea and Samaria beyond those lines. Those commitments also ensure Israel’s well-being as a Jewish state by making clear that Palestinian refugees will settle in a future Palestinian state rather than in Israel. Without a solution to the Palestinian refugee problem outside the borders of Israel, no territorial concession will bring peace."What's remarkable about this statement is that Netanyahu is essentially demanding that Obama retract his speech, something that obviously is not going to happen. The "U.S. commitments made to Israel in 2004," Netanyahu is referring to a commitment by the Bush administration that in exchange for withdrawal from Gaza. Netanyahu is saying that the U.S. is reneging on its previous commitments. If any political compromise on this issue is possible, it would have to be in the proposed concepts of "land swaps." Perhaps the Obama administration believes it has found a way to swap chunks of land so cleverly that Israel's security is preserved. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The aftermath" Ordinarily I would say that this speech will be completely forgotten within a week, but that can't happen because Netanyahu is visiting Washington over the weekend, and will be giving a speech to Congress on Tuesday. The situation in the Mideast is much worse today than it was in 2003, when the Mideast Roadmap was proposed, simply because many more of the generation of conciliatory war survivors are gone:
"Second, we do not want a democratic Egypt to be saddled by the debts of its past. So we will relieve a democratic Egypt of up to $1 billion in debt, and work with our Egyptian partners to invest these resources to foster growth and entrepreneurship. We will help Egypt regain access to markets by guaranteeing $1 billion in borrowing that is needed to finance infrastructure and job creation. And we will help newly democratic governments recover assets that were stolen. Third, we’re working with Congress to create Enterprise Funds to invest in Tunisia and Egypt. And these will be modeled on funds that supported the transitions in Eastern Europe after the fall of the Berlin Wall. OPIC will soon launch a $2 billion facility to support private investment across the region. And we will work with the allies to refocus the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development so that it provides the same support for democratic transitions and economic modernization in the Middle East and North Africa as it has in Europe."Both of these economies have been approaching bankruptcy since their respective uprisings began, so this aid is thought to be essential to prevent regional destabilization. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=770 "20-May-11 News -- Obama and Netanyahu in sharp disagreement after speech"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110520 20-May-11 World View -- Spain: huge amounts of hidden debt =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110520.head 20-May-11 World View -- Spain: huge amounts of hidden debt =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110520.keys Generational Dynamics, Spain, Greece, European Central Bank, South Africa, African National Congress, Democratic Alliance, Iraq, Kuwait, Mubarak port, North Korea, Kim Jong-il, Kim Jong-un, Kenya =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110520.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110520.date 20-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110520.txt1 Iraq and Kuwait in potential row over new deep water port =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110520.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Weekend elections in Spain may uncover huge amounts of 'hidden' debt" Weekend elections are threatening to drive Spain's ruling Socialist party from power in several regions. They're also threatening a nasty surprise: to uncover billions of dollars of "hidden debt" owed by local governments to health clinics and other suppliers. There is widespread, unrecorded debt among once-free-spending local governments. Some companies are complaining that fiscally frail administrations are pressuring them to do business off the books and not immediately bill for goods and services. This would be another potential disaster for the euro and the European Union. <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704281504576331280001740702.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Angry fight between EU and ECB over Greece becomes public" <#inc ww2010.pic g110519b.gif right "" "Yields (interest rates) on 10-year bonds for Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain (Reuters)"#> The European Central Bank (ECB) is "playing its last card" and threatening to refuse to accept Greek bonds as collateral, if the European Union (EU) approved the proposed "soft restructuring" of Greece's debt. ECB officials have been warning for weeks that any debt restructuring, or any form of default, would have catastrophic consequences for the euro zone. However, some economists are saying that the ECB threat is just a negotiating ploy, and that they'll be forced to accept Greek bonds, no matter what happens. <#stdurl http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_2_19/05/2011_391400 "Kathimerini"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "ANC losing ground among black voters in South Africa" South Africa's African National Congress (ANC) party has been winning elections by 60%+ majorities continually since 1994. But in Wednesday's municipal elections, the opposition Democratic Alliance began to successfully challenge the ANC for the first time, winning some victories. The ANC is the black liberation party following the end of apartheid, and originally led by Nelson Mandella. The DA opposition party is considered to be for whites and those of mixed race. Black voters are switching allegiance away from the ANC to the DA because the ANC is failing to provide basic services -- running water, sanitation, schools, health care, housing -- to the poor blacks, while all of these services are usually available in white neighborhoods. <#stdurl http://www.smh.com.au/world/anc-loses-ground-as-municipal-voters-register-their-discontent-20110519-1ev7o.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iraq and Kuwait in potential row over new deep water port" Plans by the Kuwaitis to begin construction of "Mubarak port," a deep water port just over the border from the site of a new Iraqi port currently under construction, is causing tempers to flare. The two ports would compete for shipping business. The move has caused historic tempers to flare. Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, leading to American intervention and the Iraq war. Iraqi activists have called for the closure of the Kuwaiti embassy in Bagdad, and expulsion of their ambassador. Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki ordered the formation of an emergency committee to travel to Kuwait immediately to tackle the dispute between the two countries. <#stdurl http://aknews.com/en/aknews/4/240890/ "Kurdish News Agency (Iraq)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Kim Jong-il's son makes first diplomatic visit to China" There are reports that Kim Jong-un, the heir apparent youngest son of North Korea's leader Kim Jong-il, is visiting China for the first time without his father. Last September, the son was named vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the ruling Worker's Party and a four-star general, apparently in preparation for becoming the new leader. <#stdurl http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2011/05/20/60/0401000000AEN20110520002000315F.HTML "Yonhap"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Kenya: Maize to run out in 10 days" According to Kenya's Cereal Millers Association that represents 26 millers, they are holding between 400,000 and 500,000 bags of maize, enough to last for ten days. "Supplies are fast drying up and farmers are not selling," said Diamond Lalji, the millers' chairman. "If we don't get more supplies, there will be no unga (flour) on the shelves in the coming days." <#stdurl http://allafrica.com/stories/201105190205.html "All Africa"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=770 "20-May-11 News -- Obama and Netanyahu in sharp disagreement after speech"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110519b 19-May-11 News -- India's Naxalite (Maoist) terrorists turn urban =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110519b.head 19-May-11 News -- India's Naxalite (Maoist) terrorists turn urban =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110519b.keys Generational Dynamics, India, Naxalites, Maoists =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110519b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110519b.date 19-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110519b.txt1 Growing Naxalite group is India's 'greatest internal security challenge' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110519b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "India's Naxalite (Maoist) terrorists turn urban" Naxalite terrorists killed five "jawans" (policemen) in India's Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), and critically wounded two more, with a landmine blast in the Dantewada district, according to <#stdurl http://english.samaylive.com/regional-news/chhattisgarh-news/676487183/landmine-blast-in-chhattisgarh-5-troopers-killed.html "Samay (Delhi)."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g100407.gif center "" "The 'Red Corridor' of regions fully or partially controlled by the Maoists (Naxalites) (Asia Times)"#> This is the biggest Naxalite terror attack since last April and May, when 44 and 75 jawans were killed, respectively, in two major terror attacks in the same district. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e100519 ""19-May-10 News -- Maoist terrorism puts India on high alert.""#>) That Naxalite (Maoist) terrorists, who occupy rural areas in the "Red Corridor," stretching along the entire southeast of the country, have become, in the words of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, India's "greatest internal security challenge." The Naxalite group was formed in 1967 in a split from the Communist Party of India (CPI). The CPI was aligned with Russian Communists, and they were increasingly moving away from violence and getting involved in India's political system. At that time, Russia and China were close to war with each other, and that split was reflected in the CPI itself. The breakaway group was aligned with China, and became known as Maoists. The initial peasant uprising that led to the Maoists occurred on May 27, 1967, in the town of Naxalbari, giving them the name "Naxalites." It was just a few years ago that the Naxalites were confined to rural areas, but now that's changing, according to a former director-general of police quoted by the <#stdurl http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2011-05-17/mumbai/29551605_1_gadchiroli-top-naxal-leader-naxal-movement "Times of India"#>:
"Certainly, it's a matter of serious concern. Prima facie, the Naxalites seem to have succeeded in ensuring the support of tribals and intellectuals in urban areas. As a result of that, their movement is getting support in big cities. It appears that their social networking is very strong, and as a result, they have been able to attract urban intellectuals."He adds that the Naxalite movement has grown because the government and industrialists are exploiting the poor tribal citizens. "It's a fact that they have been robbed of their livelihood. Their traditions and culture have been neglected. Therefore, they look to the Naxals for justice." (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=768 "19-May-11 News -- India's Naxalite (Maoist) terrorists turn urban"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110519 19-May-11 World View -- Obama to promise aid to Egypt and Tunisia =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110519.head 19-May-11 World View -- Obama to promise aid to Egypt and Tunisia =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110519.keys Generational Dynamics, Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Jean-Claude Juncker, European Central Bank, Somalia =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110519.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110519.date 19-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110519.txt1 President Obama announces sanctions on Syria's president =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110519.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "In tonight's speech, Obama will promise aid to Egypt and Tunisia" President Obama plans to propose new economic help to Tunisia and Egypt in his speech to the nation on Thursday evening. The economic proposals will include debt cancellations and loan guarantees. Egypt in particular is close to bankruptcy, as we've reported before. <#stdurl http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2011/05/obama-to-deliver-big-middle-east-speech-thursday/1 "USA Today"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "President Obama announces sanctions on Syria's president" President Obama has put economic sanctions on Syria's president Bashar al-Assad because of the "continuous escalation of violence against the people of Syria." The sanctions are largely symbolic, since Assad has few assets under the control of the United States. <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-syria-sanctions-20110519,0,5425854.story "LA Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Once again, Yemen's president refuses to sign transition deal" In a repeat of previous events, Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh refused, at the last minute, to sign an agreement to step down within 30 days. The deal was brokered by the Gulf Cooperation Council, along with the United States. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/yemen-transition-deal-falls-through-at-last-minute/ "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "EU officials' tempers rising over 'soft' restructuring for Greece" The European Central Bank (ECB) is criticizing proposals of former EU president Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg’s prime minister, to allow a "soft" restructuring of Greece's debt. This is a form of default that would give Greece more time to pay off its loans, but would not solve Greece's debt problem. The ECB is opposing default in any form, since the ECB is the biggest holder of Greek debt, and would lose the most money. The rising tempers in Europe are similar to the rising tempers in Washington. In both cases, politicians are only interested in what's best for them, not what's best for the nation or society. <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/64c62728-818b-11e0-9c83-00144feabdc0.html "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Piracy business is making more money" Already in the first quarter of 2011, pirates from Somalia have attacked more than 117 ships, killed 7 crew members and held 338 hostages for ransom. Ransom payments increased from an average of $150,000 in 2005 to $5.4 million in 2010. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,763063,00.html "Spiegel"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=768 "19-May-11 News -- India's Naxalite (Maoist) terrorists turn urban"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110518b 18-May-11 News -- Pakistan military demands 'flag meeting' over US incursion =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110518b.head 18-May-11 News -- Pakistan military demands 'flag meeting' over US incursion =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110518b.keys Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Flag meeting, China, Germany, John Kerry, Asif Ali Zardari =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110518b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110518b.date 18-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110518b.txt1 Germany limits information exchange with U.S. intelligence =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110518b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pakistan military demands 'flag meeting' over US incursion" On Monday, Pakistan's Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani told <#stdurl http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-05/17/c_13877917.htm "Xinhua,"#> "We are proud to have China as our best and most trusted friend and China will always find Pakistan standing beside it at all times." <#inc ww2010.pic g110517a.jpg center "" "Chinese warship docked in Karachi, Pakistan, harbor (VOA)"#> He said China was the first country to show its support and solidarity with the government and people of Pakistan, in the aftermath of the killing of Osama bin Laden by U.S. forces:
"To test a friend whether true or not, it needs time and means under crisis, we appreciate that in all difficult circumstances China stood with Pakistan, therefore we call China a true friend and a time-tested and all-weather friend."This comes at the same time as a military confrontation between Nato helicopters and Pakistan's military, injuring two of Pakistan's soldiers, causing the Pakistan military to demand a "flag meeting" with Nato commanders over Nato incursions into Pakistan's soil, according to the <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/8518862/US-Pakistan-relationship-further-tested-with-Nato-helicopter-strike.html "Telegraph."#> (A "flag meeting" is a meeting of military officials on their common border.) The incident involved two Nato helicopters at the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, though it's not clear which side they were on. According to the Pakistani statement, "The [Pakistani troops] fired upon the helicopters and, as a result of the exchange of fire, two of our soldiers received injuries." Last week, Pakistan's parliament threatened reprisals for American military actions on Pakistan's soil -- the drone strikes and the military action that killed Osama bin Laden. They threatened to prohibit Nato from ferrying military supplies from Karachi harbor, across Pakistan into Afghanistan. They also threatened to end sharing of intelligence with the CIA. As I've been writing for years, my expectation is that the coming Clash of Civilizations world war will pit the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni nations against the "allies" of the U.S., India, Russia, Iran and Israel, among others. The events of the last few weeks, since the killing of Osama bin Laden, appear to have pushed events very far along this trend line. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Germany limits information exchange with U.S. intelligence" The Pakistanis have threatened to limit sharing intelligence information with the CIA, and the Germans are doing the same thing. Opposition has been growing in Germany to America's use of unmanned drones in Pakistan and Yemen, especially since October 4 of last year, when a missile from a missile strike from an unmanned American drone killed German citizen Islamists sitting in a room in Waziristan, in Pakistan's tribal area. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,762873,00.html#ref=nlint "Spiegel"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pakistan promises to continue targeting sanctuaries" <#inc ww2010.pic g110517c.jpg right "" "Senator John Kerry meets with Pakistan's President Asif Ali Zardari and other officials (AP)"#> After an all-day meeting in Islamabad, Pakistan's capital, with Pakistan's President Asif Ali Zardari and other officials, Senator John Kerry said that progress had been achieved. These achievements were vague promises to continue cooperation on counter-terrorism, intelligence sharing and targeting terrorist sanctuaries. <#stdurl http://www.dawn.com/2011/05/17/us-assured-of-action-against-sanctuaries.html "Dawn (Pakistan)"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=766 "18-May-11 News -- Pakistan military demands 'flag meeting' over US incursion"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110518 18-May-11 World View -- EU proposes Greek 'soft' default =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110518.head 18-May-11 World View -- EU proposes Greek 'soft' default =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110518.keys Generational Dynamics, Greece, Jean-Claude Juncker, Austria, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Carla Bruni Sarkozy, Jack Lang, Elisabeth Guigou, Gang of Six, Tom Coburn, Kurdistan, Bill Gates, Neurowear =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110518.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110518.date 18-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110518.txt1 France's first lady, Carla Bruni Sarkozy, is pregnant =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110518.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "EU official proposes 'soft' default of Greece's debt" Top level European officials have been studiously avoiding any suggestion of a default on Greece debt, for fear that stating the obvious would panic investors. Instead, they've been buying time by giving Greece new credit cards to use to pay off the old one, in order to buy time. But on Tuesday, former EU president and current Prime Minister of Luxembourg Jean-Claude Juncker proposed a "soft" restructuring of Greece's debt, if it quickly presses ahead with its plan to privatize 50 billion euros ($70.8 billion) in assets and embark on other reforms that have been resisted so far. The soft restructuring would involved extending the due date of the loans. One BBC commentator called this an "elaborate pretense," since it's a default by another name, and because it will simply postpone the problem a little longer. <#stdurl http://www.marketwatch.com/story/eu-opens-door-to-soft-greek-debt-restructuring-2011-05-17?reflink=MW_news_stmp "Market Watch"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Austria: 'If you've cheated your way into the euro ...'" Greece will have to "do its homework" -- fulfill its previous promises to sell assets and lay off workers -- before it can receive any more bailout money, according to Austrian finance minister Maria Fekter. "Before Greece does its homework, no money can flow. You can't make promises and then not get privatisation on its way. Greece is still remaining in the state we had in the seventies. It doesn't work that way. If you've cheated your way into the euro, then you have to catch up on your homework now." <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/17/eu-finmins-austria-idUSBRU01149720110517 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "France's first lady, Carla Bruni Sarkozy, is pregnant" The political field for France's presidential campaign, which culminates in two rounds of voting on April 22 and May 6 next year, is changing rapidly. First, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, expected to run on the Socialist ticket, is sitting in a jail cell in New York, and may be there for some time. And now, Sarkozy's father has confirmed that Carla is pregnant, and will probably give birth right in the middle of the campaign. <#stdurl http://www.expatica.com/fr/news/french-news/secret-s-out-sarkozy-to-campaign-with-baby-on-the-way_149584.html "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "French politicians outraged at treatment of Strauss-Kahn" Perp walks may be common in America, but they're illegal in France before a man is found guilty, since they prejudice the jury, and French politicians are outraged at the treatment of Dominique Strauss-Kahn. One Former Culture Minister Jack Lang calls the treatment a "lynching" that had "provoked horror and aroused disgust." He said that the U.S. justice system was "politicized" and was determined to "make a Frenchman pay." Former Justice Minister Elisabeth Guigou, who drafted the French law on presumption of innocence, called the pre-trial publicity "absolutely sickening." One BBC commentator said that the accusations didn't make sense, since Strauss-Kahn would not have acted so recklessly, while the accuser was a single mother who had an opportunity to make a great deal of money. <#stdurl http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1388032/Dominique-Strauss-Kahn-Frances-fury-lynching-IMF-boss-rape-charge.html "Daily Mail"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The 'Gang of Six' bipartisan deficit group may be collapsing" Oklahoma Republican Senator Tom Coburn says that the "Gang of Six" could not reach agreement on how to achieve their objective of cutting the deficit by $4 trillion over the next decade. They were working on a plan to increase taxes of $1 trillion in return for cuts to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, but leaders in both parties were cool to these efforts. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this failure is expected. The generational paradigm in a Crisis era is that these agreements will always collapse in bitterness, until a "regeneracy" event occurs, an event that regenerates civic unity. In this case, the anticipated regeneracy event will be a financial collapse so enormous that both sides will have to agree, since no other choices will be available. At that point, my expectation is that Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security will all be thrown out, and marginal tax rates will return to the 95% levels of World War II. In the meantime, the "Gang of Six" is just a circus act. <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/coburn-pessimistic-as-budget-talks-involving-gang-of-six-senators-drag-on/2011/05/17/AFLMUw5G_story.html "Washington Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Kurds clash with Turkish troops in eastern Turkey" Hundreds of supporters of Kurdish separatists attacked police with stones and fire bombs on Tuesday in southeastern Turkey. The clash occurred after a funeral, attended by thousands of separatist supporters, of one of 12 Kurdish rebels killed by Turkish troops as they attempted to sneak into Turkey from their bases in northern Iraq. The rebels are seeking an autonomous Kurdistan. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5jCLC9SnZiNjH-3VimQ2TyD4d5SPg?docId=6872304 "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Bill Gates calls for worldwide vaccination program" In a speech on Tuesday, Bill Gates called for a worldwide vaccinations program to protect children from infectious diseases. "If donors are generous, we will prevent 4 million deaths by 2015. By 2020, we can prevent 10 million deaths." I met Bill Gates several times when I was a technology journalist, and he's a very interesting guy who is now devoting his life to a worthy cause that he believes in passionately. Unfortunately, it falls to me, the gloomiest person in the world, to point out that reducing child mortality only worsens the population explosion and the food shortage, and will mean hundreds of millions of additional deaths in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/17/us-gates-vaccine-investment-idUSTRE74G7DJ20110517 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Brain wave sensor technology being used in novelty cat ears" <#inc ww2010.pic g110517b.jpg right "" "Brainy chick with cat's ears"#> If you wear these Neurowear cat ears, and your brain concentrates on something, then these cat ears perk up. If your brain relaxes, so do the cat ears. This may be the first commercial product that uses the new brain technology that's been under development for a number of years. The cat ears come with a headband with a forehead brain wave sensor, and have built-in motors that can make the cat ears react to an appropriate (or inappropriate) change in brain waves. A Japanese company Neurowear, hopes to market the item by the end of the year. Price has not yet been determined. <#stdurl http://news.cnet.com/control-these-robot-cat-ears-with-your-brain/8301-17938_105-20062430-1.html "CNet"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=766 "18-May-11 News -- Pakistan military demands 'flag meeting' over US incursion"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110517b 17-May-11 News -- Greece headed for harsh new austerity measures, possible default =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110517b.head 17-May-11 News -- Greece headed for harsh new austerity measures, possible default =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110517b.keys Generational Dynamics, Greece, Angela Merkel, Eurogroup, Portugal =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110517b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110517b.date 17-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110517b.txt1 Euro group backs a bailout for Portugal =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110517b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece headed for harsh new austerity measures, possible default" Europeans are coming around to the idea that a new bailout of Greece will only pile on more debt, only making the euro / Greece financial crisis worse. Greece's problems are compounded by the weekend arrest of IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn, a major support of Greece and further Greek bailouts. <#inc ww2010.pic g110516.jpg center "" "Angela Merkel strongly opposes a Greek default"#> Negotiations are ongoing with the "troika," consisting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), European Central Bank (ECB), and the European Union (EU). Although no decisions have yet been made, sources indicate that new harsher austerity measures will be imposed on Greece, according to <#stdurl http://english.capital.gr/News.asp?id=1195401 "capital.gr"#>:
"It is important to note that these events are happening on the anniversary of the establishment of Israel. As the leaders of these violent acts themselves say – their battle is not for the 1967 lines, but rather, against Israel's existence, as they see that day as a disaster which must be rectified. We must keep our eyes open and see the reality, and know who and what we are dealing with."An analysis by <#stdurl http://debka.com/article/20934/ "Debka"#> claims that the IDF was almost completely unreprepared for the masses of protesters, especially on the Syrian border. The article points out that the IDF had previously been warned that Syria was planning some action against Israel to divert attention from its own troubles:
"Israeli forces on high alert for Nakba Day, Sunday, May 15, failed to seal three national borders on the Golan, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip against large-scale incursions. Dozens of Syrians and Hizballah invaders were able to overrun the Israeli Golan village of Majd al Shams and hoist Syrian and Palestinian flags in the main square; Hizballah-sponsored Palestinian demonstrators breached the Lebanese-Israeli border and damaged IDF installations; and hundreds of Palestinians battered the Erez crossing from the Gaza Strip. The interlopers sustained dozens of casualties including fatalities from Israeli fire these events in which Israelis too were injured. In the Gaza sector 40-50 casualties are reported. Lebanon reports five demonstrators killed. On the Syrian border, Israeli snipers and helicopters belatedly opened fire to halt the thousands attempting to cross the border, but dozens got through to Majd al Shams. Some were killed or injured by Israeli fire. Three Israel civilians were wounded. Israeli tanks were speeded to the Syrian border to halt the incident. debkafile reports that despite the high IDF border alert for Nakba Day invasions from neighboring Arab countries, Israeli forces were not deployed in sufficient strength on the Golan border, even though debkafile reported Saturday, May 14 that Damascus planned trouble on the border with Israel as a diversion from the rebellion against the Assad regime."What happened on Sunday is reminiscent of Israel's overreaction in the 2006 Lebanon war with Hizbollah. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e061223 ""How Israel panicked in pursuing the summer Lebanon war with Hizbollah.""#>) When the 2006 war between Israel and Hizbollah began, both sides immediately fought the war in a manner appropriate to their respective generational eras. Hizbollah warriors fought the war in a "cool" Awakening era fashion, launching missiles into Israel during the day, and then returning to their wives in the evening. By contrast, Israel fought the war in a "hot" Crisis era fashion. They panicked when two Israeli soldiers were kidnapped, and went to war in four hours, with no plan, no objective, and no idea what was going on. They then blundered from one objective to the next, until the war finally ended. If Lebanon had also been in a generational Crisis era, then Hizbollah warriors would have crossed the border into Israel and slaughtered Israelis in their homes, possibly triggering a regional and world war. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Panicked response" Sunday's panicked response by Israel appears to be very similar, but this time it's even more dangerous than it was in 2006. With the entire Mideast becoming inflamed with Arab uprisings, and many of the countries in generational Crisis eras, there is a very real possibility that Israel will be blamed for starting a regional war, if one breaks out because of Israel's panic and overreaction. As September approaches, and the United Nations heads for possible creation of a Palestinian state by international mandate, we can only expect the uprisings to continue, and the tension between Israel and Palestinians to escalate. Israel's border with Syria is an entirely new front. The border along the Golan Heights, which Israel annexed in 1981 in a move that was not recognized internationally, has been quiet for decades, until Sunday, when four people were killed, according to <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/factbox-five-facts-about-the-golan-heights/ "Reuters."#> Sunday's uprisings highlight a more general problem that we haven't heard much about lately -- the position of the Palestinian refugees, whose parents and grandparents were forced to leave their homes because of the 1948 war. There are some four million Palestinian refugees in refugee camps in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and the Palestinian territories. They are becoming more restive, and they are demanding the "right of return" to their grandparents' former homes, according to <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/palestinians-turn-back-clock-in-israel-struggle/ "Reuters."#> It's hard for me to see how this can end any way but badly. As I've been saying for years, the Generational Dynamics prediction is that there will be a new war refighting the genocidal war between Jews and Arabs that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel on May 14, 1948. The trend has been clearly in that direction for years, and the war may not be very far off. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=764 "16-May-11 News -- Israeli army fires on unarmed protesters crossing three borders"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110516 16-May-11 World View -- IMF chief charged with rape =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110516.head 16-May-11 World View -- IMF chief charged with rape =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110516.keys Generational Dynamics, Israel, Egypt, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, IMF, Greece, Libya, General Sir David Richards, Syria, Bashal al-Assad, Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Switzerland, assisted suicide =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110516.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110516.date 16-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110516.txt1 Protesters rally outside the Israeli embassy in Cairo, Egypt =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110516.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Euro crisis talks thrown into disarray by Strauss-Kahn rape charge" <#inc ww2010.pic g110515c.jpg right "" "Dominique Strauss-Kahn (Reuters)"#> The juiciest story to come out over the weekend was the arrest of Dominique Strauss-Kahn on sexual assault charges. Strauss-Kahn is head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Washington, and is widely regarded of having "saved the world" by guiding global policy through the financial crisis of 2008-2009. He was expected to step down from his position as IMF chief to run for President of France next year on the Socialist ticket. His political career is now thought to be finished, and his career at the IMF is probably finished as well. <#stdurl http://www.expatica.com/fr/news/french-news/arrest-torpedoes-strauss-kahn-french-presidential-hopes_149015.html "Agence France-Presse"#> He's charged with sexually assaulting a maid in a $3,000 per night suite at this New York City hotel on Saturday. He was arrested on Saturday evening as his plane was just about to take off for France. However, his plane trip is explained by his scheduled meetings with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Sunday, to discuss the euro debt crisis. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/trustlaw/news/factbox-timeline-of-events-in-strauss-kahn-case/ "Reuters"#> The arrest of Strauss-Kahn throws the IMF into disarray, as it tries to figure out how to respond to the situation. He strongly supported the Greek rescue, even in the face of growing doubts about the Greek government's ability and resolve to meet the commitments of the international aid package. His latest trip was likely to focus on whether to adjust the terms of Greece's loans in order to keep the country -- and the rest of the euro zone -- from falling into a deeper crisis. Although he was going to be stepping down in a couple of months anyway, his sudden disappearance could derail European finance negotiations, at least for a while. <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703421204576324400801330790.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Protesters rally outside the Israeli embassy in Cairo, Egypt" <#inc ww2010.pic g110515b.jpg right "" "Cairo protesters outside Israeli Embassy (AFP)"#> Israel's IDF faced protesters crossing the border into Israel on three fronts, as I wrote in <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110516b "today's main article."#> There were also demonstrations in Cairo, Egypt, on Sunday, when thousands of protesters massed outside of the Israeli embassy. Egyptian police used rubber bullets and tear gad when a group of demonstrators tried to storm the entrance of the embassy. Protesters responded by burning tires and throwing stones. <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/05/2011515131427646668.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "UK calls for further escalation of Libya military action" The Libya military intervention was supposed to be victorious almost overnight, but now that it's dragging through its third month as a stalemate with no end in sight, politicians are looking for ways to escalate, so that they find that elusive light at the end of the tunnel. UK Armed Forces chief Gen Sir David Richards says that Nato must intensify the military campaign against the Gaddafi regime by easing the restrictions on bombing targets. "The vice is closing on Gaddafi, but we need to increase the pressure further through more intense military action. We now have to tighten the vice to demonstrate to Gaddafi that the game is up and he must go." <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8514034/Nato-must-target-Gaddafi-regime-says-Armed-Forces-chief-Gen-Sir-David-Richards.html "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Al-Assad meets with artists to solve Syria's problems" <#inc ww2010.pic g110515d.jpg right "" "Assad meets with artists (Sana)"#> Syria's president Bashar al-Assad met on Saturday with a delegation of Syrian artists, actors and directors, to discuss the role of art and artists to uplift society, reflect its aspirations, bolster solidarity among the Syrian people, and promote awareness at plots that are targeting Syria and its security and stability. <#stdurl http://www.dp-news.com/en/detail.aspx?articleid=83794 "Sana (Syria)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iran's Supreme Leader says Ahmadinejad is 'under a spell'" Iran's Awakening-era political crisis continues to expand, as president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is refusing to obey orders to fire his chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, even after some of Mashaei's aides were accused of sorcery, using "supernatural powers," of being "magicians." (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110507b ""7-May-11 News -- Resignation of Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may be imminent""#>) Now Ahmadinejad himself stands accused of being "under a spell," for disobeying the Supreme Leader. According to Ayatollah Mohammad-Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi, "I've told some of my close friends that I am more than 90 per cent certain that he has been put under a spell. This is not natural at all. No sane person does such things unless his free will has been taken away." <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/8514929/Mahmoud-Ahmadinejad-under-a-spell-Ayatollah-Ali-Khamenei-says.html "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Switzerland votes to continue assisted suicide" In a referendum in Switzerland on Sunday, voters overwhelmingly rejected proposals to ban assisted suicide, and also overwhelmingly rejected a proposal to ban "suicide tourism," which permitted foreign nationals to visit the country to obtain help in ending their lives. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the suicide rate among seniors is expected to increase, as the financial crisis deepens, causing pension plans and other financial safety nets to go bankrupt. <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/swiss-vote-to-continue-assisted-suicide-2284752.html "Independent"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=764 "16-May-11 News -- Israeli army fires on unarmed protesters crossing three borders"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110515b 15-May-11 News -- Mideast envoy George Mitchell resigns, ending one more grand peace process =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110515b.head 15-May-11 News -- Mideast envoy George Mitchell resigns, ending one more grand peace process =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110515b.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110515b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110515b.date 15-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110515b.txt1 Mitchell is just the latest of envoys to fail =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110515b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Mideast envoy George Mitchell resigns, ending one more grand 'peace process'" George Mitchell, President Obama's Special Envoy for the Mideast, resigned on Friday, after two years on the job, accomplishing pretty much nothing. It comes as Palestinians commemorate the anniversary of the founding of Israel, the "Naqba" or catastrophe. It also comes shortly before President Obama's major Mideast speech on Thursday, as well as imminent planned visits to Washington from Jordan’s King Abdullah and Israel's Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. <#inc ww2010.pic g110514.jpg center "" "George Mitchell with President Obama"#> According to the President's <#stdurl http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/05/13/statement-president-resignation-middle-east-envoy-george-mitchell "statement"#>:
"He is – by any measure – one of the finest public servants that our nation has ever had. Even though he already had an extraordinary legacy – serving the people of Maine, leading the Senate, and bringing peace to Northern Ireland – he took on the toughest job imaginable and worked grueling hours to advance the interests of the United States and the cause of peace."The comparison to Northern Ireland is fatuous. When Mitchell was "bringing peace" to Northern Ireland in the 1990s, it was not a generational Crisis era, and the sectarian conflict between Catholics and Protestants was nowhere near a crisis war. By contrast, the Palestine region is in a full-fledged generational Crisis era, headed for a new war, refighting the war between Jews and Arabs that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the founding of the state of Israel, 63 years ago yesterday, on May 14, 1948. So Mitchell never had a chance to bring peace. The poor guy kept shuttling back and forth between Ramallah and Jerusalem, hoping to work his Northern Ireland magic again. But with the wrong generational constellation in place, there was no magic to be found. Let's not forget that there's another Mideast envoy, Tony Blair, who was appointed by the Middle East Quartet (United Nations, Russian Federation, United States, European Union) on the day in 2007 when he resigned as prime minister of Britain. Tony Blair was also going to bring peace to the Mideast. Blair is often given credit for ending the bloody Sierre Leone civil war in 1999. But the Sierre Leone civil war had already climaxed, so it was going to end anyway. As an aside, it's worth remembering the late Richard Holbrooke, who was appointed special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, because of his work brokering the Dayton Peace Accords that ended the Bosnian War in 1995. However, that war had ALSO already climaxed at the massacre at Srebrenica. I don't wish to take away from anyone's accomplishments, but I'm just saying that a genocidal crisis war is an elemental force of nature that must run its course, and it's just as much a part of human DNA as sex is. Peace is not an option in the Mideast. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, I sometimes compare a crisis war to a ball rolling down a hill. A war may begin with years or even decades of low level violence -- occasional terrorist acts or police actions, but with general restraint on both sides. In the analogy, the ball might start out very slowly, going back and forth, perhaps getting stuck in the tall grass. Soon it starts to pick up speed, going faster and faster, gathering momentum. Once it has enough momentum, it can't be stopped by any human force. Finally it reaches the bottom in a massive explosion. In the case of a crisis war, it starts out slowly, and becomes increasingly violent as time goes on, ending in a crisis climax, a massive genocidal explosion. But once the explosive climax has been reached and passed, a new phase begins, and the society enters a "recovery" phase. The survivors of the war vow that they'll never let anything so horrible ever happen again, and they set up institutions and define austere rules to guarantee it. People like Blair and Holbrooke were part of the generational Recovery Era in their respective negotiations. None of that applies in any way to the current situation between the Palestinians and Israelis. As I wrote in 2003 in <#hreftext ww2010.i.may01 ""Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?""#>, my first posted Generational Dynamics analysis, the region is headed for war that cannot be prevented. Mitchell and Blair were not the first Mideast envoys since then. In 2005, the Quartet appointed James Wolfensohn to be Mideast envoy. He actually accomplished quite a bit. He negotiated several agreements between the parties. And, as former President of the World Bank, he used his formidable list of contacts to get investors to purchase dozens of greenhouses left behind by Israeli settlers when they left Gaza, so that Palestinians could use them right away to get hard currency by growing food for exports. When Wolfensohn resigned in 2006, I wrote about it in <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e060505 ""International game of 'chicken' leading to disaster in Gaza""#>, and I quoted the following from an Israeli commentator:
"But Wolfensohn is leaving in apparent disgust with the Israelis, the Palestinians, and the international community, regarding the entire effort to isolate the Hamas government a punishment of the Palestinians, which will only lead to more despair and intransigence on the Palestinian side. Ever the diplomat, he is not stating outright how disgusted he is, but he has made clear that he is furious about broken Israeli promises to take steps to ease conditions for the Palestinians, particularly Gazans, where half the population is now living beneath the World Bank's own measure of poverty -- less than $2 a day. He's no less frustrated by the Palestinians, particularly their inability to rein in the lawlessness that took over in Gaza. Indeed, while some of the greenhouses he purchased were successfully handed over to Palestinians (who are going bankrupt because of Israeli security restrictions that make agricultural exports out of Gaza extremely slow and difficult) others were ruined by in fighting by rival gangs that nobody in Gaza can control. As for the international community, which 'hired' him as an expert in economic development, he is disgusted with its inability to intervene with anything other than isolation of the Hamas government."Wolfensohn got out just in time, as the war between Israel and Hizbollah in Lebanon began shortly thereafter. That was followed by the war between Fatah and Hamas in 2007, and then the Operation Cast Lead war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza early in 2009. See what I mean about the ball rolling down the hill, gathering momentum? Today we seem inexorably headed for the creation of a Palestinian state by international mandate in the United Nations by September. I cannot for the life of me see how that's going to work, based on pre-1967 borders. That's just a formula for another war. In the meantime, the entire Mideast region is inflamed. The Tunisian and Egyptian uprisings are showing signs of increased violence, the Libyan uprising is nowhere near an end, the Yemen uprising is growing more violent, and tensions are growing between Iran and Saudi Arabia over the situation in Bahrain. The Syrian uprising is leveling off (Syria itself is in a generational Awakening era, not a Crisis era), but it's spilling over into Lebanon, where the Palestinian population is becoming increasingly restive. It would be nice if mediators like Mitchell, Blair, Wolfensohn and Holbrooke could actually accomplish something, but once generational theory tells you what's really going on, you realize that they can neither cause nor prevent the events that they're supposed to influence. We hope that George Mitchell enjoys his retirement. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=763 "15-May-11 News -- Mideast envoy George Mitchell resigns, ending one more grand peace process"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110515 15-May-11 World View -- Syria refugees flee to Lebanon =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110515.head 15-May-11 World View -- Syria refugees flee to Lebanon =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110515.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110515.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110515.date 15-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110515.txt1 Pakistan reportedly drops intelligence sharing with the CIA =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110515.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Hundreds of refugees crossing border from Syria to Lebanon" Syria has been cracking down violently on protesters in the town of Talkilakh, on the border with Lebanon. Hundreds of women and children are fleeing into Lebanon, while the men remain in Syria to protect their homes. With at least 250,000 Palestinian refugees living in Lebanon, most of whom are deprived of basic human rights, and thousands of Iraqi refugees receiving insufficient attention and care, Lebanon is hardly capable of coping with its current refugee populations, much less new ones. <#stdurl http://www.palestinechronicle.com/view_article_details.php?id=16837 "Palestine Chronicle"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Two people injured in sectarian violence in Cairo" Violence erupted in a Cairo neighborhood on Saturday when some 2,000 pro-Coptic protesters clashed with several dozen unidentified men, leaving at least two people injured. Egyptian riot police were deployed and created a human barrier between the protesters of dozens of unidentified men, dressed in plain clothes, who began firing live ammunition into the air and attacking the demonstrators with sticks and stones. They also threw Molotov cocktails. It was not immediately clear who the attackers were or what their motive was. <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/05/14/egypt.clashes/ "CNN"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pakistan reportedly drops intelligence sharing with the CIA" Officials at Pakistan's ISI intelligence services are furious about being double-crossed by the CIA in misleading them about intelligence related to the killing of Osama bin Laden. There are reports that ISI is refusing to share details of suspects or plots with their American counterparts in protest, raising the potential threat of attacks on Western cities. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/al-qaeda/8513920/Osama-bin-Laden-dead-angry-Pakistan-drops-intelligence-sharing-with-West.html "Telegraph"#> Pakistan's parliament is threatening reprisals for American military actions on Pakistan's soil -- the drone strikes and the military action that killed Osama bin Laden. The lawmakers also threatened to prohibit Nato from ferrying military supplies into Afghanistan if Washington continued its campaign of drone strikes against militants. Military supplies have been reaching land-locked Afghanistan by overland routes through Pakistan, starting from Karachi. <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-pakistan-bin-laden-20110515,0,891057.story "LA Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia: Has the Putin-Medvedev war begun for real?" <#inc ww2010.pic g110514b.jpg right "" "Medvedev and Putin (Ria Novosti)"#> The relationship between Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has been called a "tandem leadership," since they seem to complement each other without friction. But now, with both of them eligible to run for president in next year's elections, there are signs of friction. Medvedev is withholding approval of some of Putin's initiatives, and has appeared to criticize Putin for his statements on Libya. <#stdurl http://en.rian.ru/russia/20110513/164006899.html "Ria Novosti"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "North Korea and Iran illegally exchanging missile technology" North Korea and Iran have been regularly exchanging ballistic missile technology in violation of U.N. sanctions. The illicit technology transfers had "trans-shipment through a neighboring third country," apparently China. "Prohibited ballistic missile-related items are suspected to have been transferred between the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) and the Islamic Republic of Iran on regular scheduled flights of Air Koryo and Iran Air," according to a U.N. report. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/14/us-korea-north-iran-un-idUSTRE74D18Z20110514 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Why Iran misses bin Laden" Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda is no friend of Iran, being a Sunni terrorist group that has targeted Shia Iran in the past. However, Iran cannot be pleased by the killing of bin Laden, since it gives greater prestige to President Obama, and because it raises the possibility of some similar kind of U.S. military operation in Iran. <#stdurl http://www.eurasiareview.com/why-iran-misses-bin-laden-analysis-13052011/ "Meir Javedanfar"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "How did bin Laden keep three wives under one roof?" Osama bin Laden must have been driven nuts by living in the same home as three wives and 17 children. <#stdurl http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2070880,00.html "Time"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=763 "15-May-11 News -- Mideast envoy George Mitchell resigns, ending one more grand peace process"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110514b 14-May-11 News -- Syria, Libya and Iraq aggravate the Turkey-Iran axis =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110514b.head 14-May-11 News -- Syria, Libya and Iraq aggravate the Turkey-Iran axis =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110514b.keys Generational Dynamics, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran, Turkey, Syria, Libya, Kurdistan, Bahrain =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110514b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110514b.date 14-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110514b.txt1 Erdogan and Ahmadinejad have very different Mideast strategies =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110514b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria, Libya and Iraq aggravate the Turkey-Iran axis" The warming relations between Turkey and Iran have been troubling to the West, but there is great potential for dispute between the two countries. <#inc ww2010.pic g110513.jpg center "" "Recep Tayyip Erdogan"#> In fact, the basic interests of Ankara and Tehran collide, in some if not most issues, according to an analysis by the <#stdurl http://www.eurasiareview.com/rise-and-future-fall-of-turkey-iran-axis-analysis-08052011/ "Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)"#>. These colliding interests could lead to disagreements, and in the long run even conflict, between these two major non-Arab powers in the Middle East. Today's most visible policy difference is in Syria. Both Iran and Turkey would like to see Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stay in power, but for different reasons: Turkey would like to see Assad take "a reformist, positive approach," while Iran wants Assad to resist Israel and strengthen Hezbollah as a proxy against the "Zionist entity." Libya presents even sharper differences. Turkey is cooperating with Nato's military intervention, while Iran called the Nato intervention "a big stupidity" and predicted "that the NATO-US invasion would throw them to the depth of an abyss," something which the Turks do not wish to hear. In fact, the uprisings in Syria and Libya are causing a number of foreign policy problems for Turkey in the Arab world, according to <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37910&tx_ttnews[backPid]=512 "Jamestown"#>. Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has tried to maintain his popularity in the Arab world by taking moderate positions on the Arab uprisings, but that has resulted in some criticisms, because of his slow response. He didn't support Nato's military intervention in Libya at first, but only reversed policy when Muammar Gaddafi's forces became particularly bloody, leading many to believe that Erdogan has no principled position on the Arab uprisings. The situation in Syria is posing an even more difficult dilemma as the Syrian response to its uprising becomes increasingly violent and bloody, risking a flood of Syrian refugees pouring across the border into Turkey. If Turkey and Iran come to a military confrontation, it will probably be over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Turkey supports a settlement between the Israelis and the Palestinians, while Iran opposes Israel's existence, and is trying its best to prevent a settlement. In a television interview on Thursday, Erdogan said he considered Hamas as a political party or a resistance movement instead of a terrorist organization, according to <#stdurl http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/115105/erdogan-sees-hamas-as-a-political-party-pleased-over-reconciliation-with-al-fatah.html "Turkish Weekly."#> He added, "I have exerted great efforts to unite Al Fatah and Hamas over the past years during my term in office and now I am very happy to see that happen. If peace would come to the Middle East, it would start from peace in Palestine." Another hot spot in Turkey-Iran relations is "Kurdistan," the region in northern Iraq that overflows into both Turkey and Iran. Turkey has been the target of numerous terrorist attacks by the PKK Kurds for years, and Kurdish rebel leader Ocalon is threatening a "big war" with Turkey, according to <#stdurl http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2011/may/12/eu-turkey-kurds/ "AP."#> Another Kurdish group, the Free Life Party of Iranian Kurdistan, known as PJAK, is considered the Iranian "branch" of the PKK, according to <#stdurl http://www.newsmax.com/KenTimmerman/Nourial-Maliki-iraq-iran-pjak/2011/05/11/id/395923 "Newsmax."#> The group is based in guerilla camps in northern Iraq, and Iran has recently moved tanks and artillery close to the guerilla camps, apparently in preparation for military action. American troops are scheduled to be out of Iraq by the end of this year. The fear is that the American troop withdrawal from Iraq will leave a power vacuum that will be filled by invasions of Kurdish regions by both Turkey and Iran. The departure of U.S. troops could leave Iraq vulnerable. It cannot yet protect its own airspace, and relies on the U.S. for intelligence-gathering capabilities and logistics and maintenance of its military equipment. For that reason, Iraq's prime minister Nouri al-Maliki is beginning to suggest that American troops should stay past the December 31 deadline, according to the <#stdurl http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/05/10/2210473/roadside-bomb-kills-policeman.html "AP."#> Other issues where Turkey's interests collide with Iran's are the following, according to <#stdurl http://www.eurasiareview.com/rise-and-future-fall-of-turkey-iran-axis-analysis-08052011/ "FPRI"#>:
"Currently, the majority view is that one country should not be in a position to make a decision like that. That might trigger a chain reaction that might shatter confidence in other countries. So we do not want to let it happen."The controversial Danish policy was lead by the right wing Danish People's Party (DPP), and one poll found that 75% of Danes backed the new policy, according to <#stdurl http://www.u.tv/News/Denmarks-populist-border-controls-reintroduced-but-many-remain-sceptical/8af42958-0907-4371-86af-d5e33560b41e "UTV (Ireland)."#> But some Danes fear that the legislation will be ineffective at fighting crime and will damage national reputation. According to a history teacher quoted by the article:
"It is an expression of xenophobia. I guess Pia Kjaersgaard [the DPP leader] is scared of all the people who will come flooding up from the Arab countries. Presumably, the idea behind this is to catch criminals but it is border control officers who are at the borders, not police. Unless the officers have police privileges it doesn't make any sense."<#inc ww2010.pic g110512b.gif right "" "Schengen countries and refugees from Africa (Spiegel)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Security threat: Flood of migrants from Africa" Indeed, it's the flow of refugee migrants from northern Africa and black Africa that's motivating this change in policy. Italy and France are planning to implement some border controls to stop the flow of migrants who travel to Italy hoping to reach France and then the UK. Some 25,000 Tunisians have already reached Italy, and thousands more are taking to the sea in overcrowded and unseaworthy boats, according to <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37920&tx_ttnews[backPid]=515 "Jamestown."#> According to the article,
"Last year, Mu’ammar Qaddafi struck a €50 billion deal with the European Union to regulate its borders as a “transit country” for refugees and economic migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa. Despite this payoff, Qaddafi has not hesitated to use it against Europe, threatening to “turn Europe black” if various demands are not satisfied (Der Spiegel, February 24). The French minister of foreign affairs, Laurent Wauquiez, has warned: “Libya is the funnel of Africa. Flows of illegal immigrants from countries such as Liberia, Somalia and Eritrea pass through Libya. We must defend our frontiers on a European level. What we're talking about isn't a few tens of thousands of illegal immigrants who could arrive in Europe; it's a potential 200,000 to 300,000 this year” (Radio France Internationale, March 2)."With the possibility that some of these migrants will be terrorists, there's a real security threat to Europe in this wave of migrants, although it's not clear to me how border controls between Italy and France will make much difference. In contrast to this security threat is the concern of a lot of people that ending Europe's "open borders" policy could mean the end of the entire EU project. (Imagine if the United States implemented border controls between states within the Union.) =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The end of the European project?" Referring to the photo at the top of this report, a <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,762179,00.html#ref=nlint "Spiegel"#> commentary tells how things have changed:
The photo has been reprinted enough to be branded into the collective memories of Germany and France. It shows Helmut Kohl and Francois Mitterand standing hand-in-hand during a 1984 commemoration ceremony at Verdun. Their gesture illustrates the astounding reconciliation that took place between their respective nations after two world wars. Today, its emotionalism is both moving and oddly foreign. Back then, what would ultimately become the European Union was more than just a body for administering financial transfers between member countries. When people talked about "Europe," they focused on the big issues: open borders, international understanding, war and peace. These weren't just empty words but, instead, things that statesmen like Kohl and Mitterand felt deeply about. And since it came from the heart, people believed in what they said. This passion has disappeared from the debate over the European Union. Indeed, these days, merely saying that the European idea transformed a war-torn continent into an island of freedom and stability would seem rather quaint to most. Now the issue is whether Europe can even be prevented from becoming a transfer union -- or, in the words of Germany's tabloid press, how much we want "to pay for the lazy Greeks?"This is generational change at its height. Kohl and Mitterand had lived through World War II, when they were enemies. America was traumatized by 9/11, but Kohl and Mitterrand lived through several 9/11's every day for several years. To them, this moment must have seemed the pinnacle of their lives. Today's officials, by contrast, have little sense of that history. "Today, everyone agrees that xenophobia and populist parties are gaining ground. Extremism and discrimination are major threats against our societies," says Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, quoted by <#stdurl http://www.todayszaman.com/news-243552-turkey-warns-against-rising-xenophobia-discrimination-in-europe.html "Zaman."#> "We all need to be in solidarity across Europe in regard to our common values." Davutoglu is talking about Muslims in Europe, but he might have said the same thing about Japanese in China, Han Chinese in Xinjiang, Americans in Mexico, Coptic Christians in Egypt, or any of hundreds of other examples around the world. I've been writing about xenophobia for years, because it's predicted by Generational Dynamics as occurring in every generational crisis era. Typically, xenophobia continues to worsen, exacerbated by population growth, shortages or resources like food and water, and increased nationalism, leading to wars of extermination. In today's world, those wars of extermination will spiral into the Clash of Civilizations world war. As the Europeans give up their most prized accomplishments, it's happening right before our eyes. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=761 "13-May-11 News -- Europe's immigration crisis strikes at heart of European Union"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110513 13-May-11 World View -- U.S. was prepared to fight Pakistani forces =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110513.head 13-May-11 World View -- U.S. was prepared to fight Pakistani forces =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110513.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110513.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110513.date 13-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110513.txt1 Egypt's Muslims may donate money instead of going to Mecca =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110513.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.S. was prepared to fight Pakistani forces" The Obama administration had "very detailed contingency plans" for military action against Pakistani forces if they had tried to stop the U.S. attack on Osama bin Laden's compound. "No firepower option was off the table" during the operation, according to an unnamed US official. <#stdurl http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/05/10/pakistan.us.military.fight/ "CNN"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Osama bin Laden mission agreed in secret 10 years ago by US and Pakistan" The US and Pakistan struck a secret deal almost a decade ago permitting a US operation against Osama bin Laden on Pakistani soil. The deal was struck between the military leader General Pervez Musharraf and President George Bush after Bin Laden escaped US forces in the mountains of Tora Bora in late 2001. Under its terms, Pakistan would allow US forces to conduct a unilateral raid inside Pakistan in search of Bin Laden, his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and the al-Qaida No3. Afterwards, both sides agreed, Pakistan would vociferously protest the incursion. <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/09/osama-bin-laden-us-pakistan-deal "Guardian"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "South Korea chooses between the U.S. and China" China's growing military and economic power is causing the South Koreans to reevaluate their relationship with the United States. Ideally, they would prefer not to have to choose between China and the U.S., but circumstances force a choice. Under the current Lee Myung-bak administration, Seoul has been conspicuously leaning closer toward Washington, but that could change. <#stdurl http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/ME12Dg01.html "Asia Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Egypt's Muslims may donate money instead of going to Mecca" The head of the International Union for Muslim Scholars has issued a fatwa saying that Egyptian Muslims who had been planning to make a pligrimage to Mecca may, instead, donate the money reserved for the pilgrimage toward supporting the country's economy, and this counts as if he has performed the pilgrimage. Muslims are required to make a pilgrimage to Mecca at least once in their lifetimes, but this ruling relieves them of having to go even once. <#stdurl http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5276.htm "Memri"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Palestinians may keep Fayyad as prime minister" Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is leaning towards retaining his prime minister, Salam Fayyad, in the unity government that's being formed as a result of the Fatah-Hamas reconciliation agreement. Hamas considers Fayyad to be a tool of the West, but he's a U.S.-educated economist, and keeping him would improve the Palestinians' chances of continue to receive Western aid. <#stdurl http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110511/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_palestinians_prime_minister "AP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Hizbollah's leader Nasrallah caught in a vortex of confusion over Arab uprisings" Like almost everyone else, the political and terrorist group Hizbollah, and its leader Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah, are having difficulty deciding which Arab uprisings to support. Nasrallah's has vocally criticized the governments of Tunisia, Libya, Bahrain, Egypt and Yemen over their uprisings, but he's been silent about the uprising directed against his own allies, Syria and Iran. This has cost him some credibility, but more important, it's derailed his plans for greater prominence in the entire region. <#stdurl http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/ME11Ak02.html "Asia Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Questioning the numbers of China's harvests" The Chinese authorities pointed to its seven consecutive years of grain harvests and huge grain reserves, but there are reasons to doubt that these claims are accurate. One reason for doubt is the increase in China's imports of grains. Another reason is the explosive real estate boom of the last few years, reducing the size of its total arable land. <#stdurl http://www.eurasiareview.com/chinas-food-security-questioning-the-numbers-analysis-09052011/ "Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS)" Adding further to the doubts is China's announcement that food prices are surging in China, up 11.5% in April from a year earlier. This is much higher than the rate of inflation, as non-food prices rose 2.7%. <#stdurl http://china.globaltimes.cn/society/2011-05/654212.html "Global Times (Xinhua)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia's defense industry faces deep crisis" More than 20,000 servicement marched on Red Square in Moscow on May 9, to commemorate victory in the Great Patriotic War (WW II), but the amount of military hardware on display was much less than in previous years. The present day Russian military is indeed a pale shadow of the once awesome Red Army of the Cold War era. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37916&tx_ttnews[backPid]=27&cHash=3a88b940f7d1c599fe2b7f18d369dc22 "Jamestown"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Man jumps from world's tallest skyscraper" <#inc ww2010.pic g110512c.jpg right "" "Dubai"#> A man has committed suicide by jumping from the world's tallest skyscraper in Dubai. He fell from the 147th floor, landing on a deck on the 108th floor. He jumped following a dispute with his employer. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13351139 "BBC"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russian sect believes Putin is the reincarnation of St. Paul" A founder of a religious cult glorifying Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin believes that he's the reincarnation of Saint Paul. The sect's founder, Mother Fotinya, was quoted as saying that there were certain parallels between the life of former president Putin and St. Paul. "According to the Bible, Paul the Apostle used to be a warlord and the fierce persecutor of Christians, and then he began preaching the Gospel. Putin also was not a saint during his service in the KGB. But when he became president, the Holy Ghost descended on him." <#stdurl http://en.rian.ru/russia/20110511/163979062.html "Ria Novosti"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=761 "13-May-11 News -- Europe's immigration crisis strikes at heart of European Union"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110512b 12-May-11 News -- Raj Rajaratnam conviction raises hopes of Pecora Commission revival =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110512b.head 12-May-11 News -- Raj Rajaratnam conviction raises hopes of Pecora Commission revival =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110512b.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110512b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110512b.date 12-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110512b.txt1 Regulators are as guilty as banksters =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110512b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Raj Rajaratnam conviction raises hopes of Pecora Commission revival" Billionaire hedge fund manager Raj Rajaratnam was convicted on Wednesday of 14 counts of insider trading, according to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-11/rajaratnam-is-found-guilty-of-all-counts-in-galleon-insider-trading-trial.html "Bloomberg."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110511.jpg center "" "Raj Rajaratnam leaving court after being found guilty (AFP)"#> He had a network of insiders at companies like Intel, Goldman Sachs, Google and Hilton Hotels who provided him with specific information about earnings, forecasts and mergers in advance of public information, and then he traded on that information. He made $63.8 million from illegal insider trading. He's expected to be sentenced to about 19 years in jail. One can understand and sympathize with a Jean Valjean who steals a loaf of bread to feed his family, or even an ordinary employee who makes a couple of thousand dollars by purchasing a some stock after hearing some insider news. But here you have a billionaire who blatantly broke the law to make $60 billion more. Listening to some of the wiretap recordings on TV, you can hear what contempt he has for the rules. This is a man who considers breaking the law for his own gain, f--king the system, f--king ordinary investors, to be like a fun video game where he had a higher score than other crooks. Even so, it's almost a miracle that he was charged with anything. As I wrote last year (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e101023 ""23-Oct-10 News -- Prof. William K Black on dereliction of duty by FBI""#>), William Black was the prosecutor was the senior regulator investigating the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s. He had thousands of criminal referrals, and got over a thousand priority felony convictions of the elites -- the top people at the savings and loans. By contrast, today's regulatory agencies had ZERO criminal referrals -- not a one. According to Black:
"This is a crisis that we know empirically involved million of fraudulent mortgages being made. We know that the losses are out there. We know that the industry extorted FASB to gimmick the accounting rules, so they didn't have to recognize the losses. We know that the Fed has huge positions as collateral in these fraudulent mortgages. We've seen the Fed, Ambac, Fannie, Freddie, Pimco, Blackrock -- all putting back after investigating tens of billions of dollars of mortgages, and saying, these were sold under false representations and warranties -- frauds, and absolutely no one has gone to jail for it."Black points to collusion between the FBI and the Mortgage Bankers Association -- "the trade association of the perps" -- as one reason. The reason that there were thousands of criminal referrals in the 1980s savings and loan crisis is because the Silent generation, who had a sense of ethics, were still in charge at that time. The reason that there are ZERO criminal referrals in today's crisis is because the Boomers and Gen-Xers are in charge, and today's regulators are just as crooked and incompetent as the perpetrators, and have NO morality or ethics. For an example of this, see my 2008 report, <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e080208 ""Bond insurer 'bailout' appears near crisis point.""#> In that report, I described how New York Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo repeatedly colluded with banks, including Citibank, and bond insurance firms, to lie to the public and defraud investors. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pecora Commission" This isn't the first time this has happened. It also happened in the 1930s. People were sent to jail then because of the <#stdurl http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publications/sensep/ "Pecora Commission."#> Here's how it was described in the 1939 book <#stdurl http://gutenberg.net.au/ebooks06/0600221.txt "Since Yesterday"#> by Frederick Lewis Allen:
"Intermittently throughout the year 1933 the Senate Committee on Banking and Currency, with the aid of its inexorable counsel, Ferdinand Pecora, had been putting on one of the most extraordinary shows ever produced in a Washington committee room: a sort of protracted coroner's inquest upon American finance. One by one, a long line of financial overlords--commercial bankers, investment bankers, railroad and public-utility holding-company promoters, stockbrokers, and big speculators--had filed up to the witness table; and from these unwilling gentlemen, and from their office files, had been extracted a sorry story of public irresponsibility and private greed. Day by day this story had been spread upon the front pages of the newspapers. The investigation showed how pool operators in Wall Street had manipulated the prices of stocks on the Exchange, with the assistance of men inside the companies with whose securities they toyed. It showed how they had made huge profits (which represented the exercise of no socially useful function) at the expense of the little speculators and of investors generally, and had fostered a speculative mania which had racked the whole economic system of the country--and this not only in 1928 and 1929, but as recently as the spring of 1933, when Roosevelt was in the White House and Wall Street had supposedly been wearing the sackcloth and ashes of repentance. The investigation showed, too, how powerful bankers had unloaded stocks and bonds upon the unwary through high-pressure salesmanship and had made millions trading in the securities of their own banks, at the expense of stockholders whose interests they claimed to be serving. It showed how the issuing of new securities had been so organized as to yield rich fruits to those on the inside, and how opportunities to taste these fruits had been offered to gentlemen of political influence. It showed how that modern engine of financial power, the holding company, had been misused by promoters: how some of these promoters had piled company upon company till their structures of corporate influence were seven or eight stories high; how these structures had become so complex that they were readily looted by unscrupulous men, and so unstable that many of them came crashing down during the Depression. It showed how grave could be the results when the holding-company technic was applied to banking. It showed how men of wealth had used devices like the personal holding company and tricks like the sale of stock (at a loss) to members of their families to dodge the tax collector--at the very moment when men of humbler station had been paying the taxes which supported the government. Again and again it showed how men occupying fiduciary positions in the financial world had been false to their trust."This is exactly what's happening today, except that there's no Pecora Commission to throw these people in jail. There are too many regulators, analysts, journalists and politicians, Democrats and Republicans, in bed with the crooks to risk delving too deeply. When the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission hearings began in Congress a couple of years ago, I had hoped that they would perform the same role as the Pecora Commission, especially when they elicited testimony that proved mathematically that the banksters had committed fraud. (See <#hreftext ww2010.i.smoking100414 ""Financial Crisis Inquiry hearings provide 'smoking gun' evidence of widespread criminal fraud.""#>) However, I was severely disappointed when the FCIC hearings essentially came to nothing. So call me a cockeyed optimist, but I'm hoping that the well-deserved conviction of Raj Rajaratnam will lead to a new Pecora Commission, and to sending a lot of perpetrator banksters to jail. But I won't hold my breath. Update: A new article by Mike Taibbi in <#stdurl http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-people-vs-goldman-sachs-20110511 "Rolling Stone"#> has just been posted today, detailing years of specific crimes by Goldman Sachs executives, as determined by the Senate Subcommittee on Investigations, chaired by Democrat Carl Levin. The investigation showed that Goldman executives created and sold billions of dollars worth of fraudulent synthetic securities (residential mortgage backed collateralized debt obligations squared), knew that the securities were fraudulent, and then "shorted" the market, betting that their own clients would be wiped out by the securities that Goldman sold them. The result was that Goldman made billions of dollars by knowingly screwing their own clients. During the Levin committee hearings, Goldman executives lied about material facts. Despite all this, the Obama Justice Department is refusing to prosecute. (Paragraph added - 12-May) (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=760 "12-May-11 News -- Raj Rajaratnam conviction raises hopes of Pecora Commission revival"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110512 12-May-11 World View -- Austerity riots in Greece =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110512.head 12-May-11 World View -- Austerity riots in Greece =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110512.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110512.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110512.date 12-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110512.txt1 Egypt faces starvation as economy collapses =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110512.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Austerity protesters clash with police in Athens, Greece, during nationwide strike" <#inc ww2010.pic g110511b.jpg right "" "Exploding petrol bombs during clashes with riot police in Athens on Wednesday"#> Police clashed with protesters in Athens and Thessaloniki in Greece on Wednesday as 20,000 people participated in street protests against a new wave of austerity cuts. When Greece received a bailout one year ago, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou confidently assured the people that the austerity measures announced at that time, in combination with the bailout, would solve Greece's debt problem, and no further austerity would be required. It's now evident that (a) Greece's debt problem is NOT solved; (b) Greece needs another bailout; (c) Greece will have to impose additional harsh austerity measures; but (d) the new bailout and new austerity measures will STILL not solve Greece's debt problem. <#stdurl http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/05/11/uk-greece-eu-imf-idUKTRE7497E620110511 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "With protests continuing, Syria threatens Israel" With large protests continuing in cities around Syria, president Bashar al-Assad is considering two strategic choices to remove the pressure from his administration: Going to war against Israel, and/or sending weapons to Palestinians and Israeli Arabs for use in terrorist attacks against Israel, to foment an armed uprising against both Israel and Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas. Hamas' political leader Khaled Meshaal is relocating from Damascus to Gada, providing Egypt with the opportunity to play a more active role in the Palestinian arena, and providing Assad with a conduit for weapons transfers. <#stdurl http://www.debka.com/article/20920/ "Debka"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Egypt faces starvation as economy collapses" <#inc ww2010.pic g110511c.gif right "" "Cairo stocks, 11-May-2011"#> Egypt is the most populous country in the Arab world, and imports half its wheat. But the country is showing all the symptoms of national bankruptcy and hyperinflation, and distribution of food supplies is being disrupted. The Ministry of Solidarity and Social Justice is already forming "revolutionary committees" to mete out street justice to bakeries, propane dealers and street vendors who "charge more than the price prescribed by law," as if that will work. Half of Egyptians live on $2 a day, and that $2 is about to collapse along with the national currency. At the rate Egypt is losing foreign exchange reserves, the country will be broke by September. <#stdurl http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/ME10Ak01.html "Asia Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Proposed defense bill authorizes clandestine cyberspace operations" A version of the fiscal 2012 defense authorization bill contains language expressly permitting the Defense Department to conduct clandestine cyberspace operations outside of the United States in support of military operations. <#stdurl http://www.fiercegovernmentit.com/story/mckeon-seeks-clarify-dod-cyber-war-authority/2011-05-10 "Fierce Government IT"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.S. Postal Service to go bankrupt by September" The U.S. Postal Service lost $2.2 billion in the most recent quarter. "Snail mail" has been getting less popular, as mail volume has spread to e-mail. Total mail volume in the last quarter fell to 41 billion pieces, from 42.3 billion in the same period last year. However, expenses have been rising as well, especially prepaid retiree health benefits. The service will run out of money by September. <#stdurl http://money.cnn.com/2011/05/10/news/companies/usps_earnings/?section=money_latest "CNN"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=760 "12-May-11 News -- Raj Rajaratnam conviction raises hopes of Pecora Commission revival"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110511b 11-May-11 News -- Syrian regime shooting at anything that moves =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110511b.head 11-May-11 News -- Syrian regime shooting at anything that moves =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110511b.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110511b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110511b.date 11-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110511b.txt1 EU imposes sanctions on Libyans, but not on the president =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110511b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syrian regime shooting at anything that moves" Syria might not be elected to the U.N.'s Human Rights Council after all. Syria has been poised for some time to be elected by the U.N. General Assembly to the "Arab seat" on the Human Rights Council. However, with Syria's streets filled with the blood of hundreds of peaceful pro-democracy protesters, the prospective election, scheduled for May 20, appears to have been too embarrassing for even the United Nations, as well as the Arab League. As a result, Syria is negotiating with the U.N. to concede the seat to Kuwait, in return for getting some equally prestigious post in the future. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/International/Article.aspx?id=219981 "Jerusalem Post"#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110510.jpg center "" "A Lebanese child with a Syrian flag painted on his face, and the phrase 'Bring down the regime' written on his hand, in solidarity with Syria's protesters (Xinhua)"#> It's getting harder for Syria's protesters to move around. Many have been arrested or killed. The army and security forces have sealed off the main cities with tanks and roadblocks. Snipers are on rooftops, shooting at anything that moves, according to <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/10/us-syria-assad-idUSTRE7493D520110510 "Reuters."#> Security forces are mowing down or rounding up protesters. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "EU Sanctions" The European Union has placed sanctions on 13 Syrian officials, but not on President Bashar al-Assad himself, according to <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/05/201151083236550487.html "Al-Jazeera."#> The targets include his brother, Maher al-Assad, who commands the Republican Guard and is considered the second most powerful man in the country. The EU sanctions described him as the "principal overseer of violence against demonstrators." EU officials have not imposed sanctions on the president himself, because they are hoping that he's a potential reformer held back by hardliners in his entourage. Concern is growing that the uprising in Syria might destabilize other Mideast nations, starting with Lebanon. Syria has already blamed Lebanon's "Future Movement" faction for the violence in Syria by arming and funding anti-regime protestors, according to <#stdurl http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-05/10/c_13866580.htm "Xinhua."#> The fear is that sectarian violence in Syria will spread to sectarian violence in Lebanon. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=759 "11-May-11 News -- Syrian regime shooting at anything that moves"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110511 11-May-11 World View -- Independence day versus al-Naqba =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110511.head 11-May-11 World View -- Independence day versus al-Naqba =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110511.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110511.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110511.date 11-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110511.txt1 Iran's 'Morality Police' will be working overtime this summer =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110511.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Independence day versus al-Naqba" On May 10, Israel celebrated the 63rd anniversary of the creation of Israel, with parties, fireworks and barbeques. On May 14, the Palestinians will also commemorate the 63rd anniversary of "al-Naqba," the catastrophe, with protest marches. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hsYc3S8VtlfRGrLJKyJHep66bwhA?docId=CNG.d9be2af4c7111ceebb9f06f4d37012ee.6a1 "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.S. says that Israel's decision to withhold Palestinian funds is 'premature'" U.S. State Dept. spokesman Mark Toner criticized Israel's decision, following the signing of the Hamas-Fatah reconciliation deal, to withhold $105 million in tax revenues that Israel collected on behalf of the Palestinians. Toner said that the U.S. government position is that:
"[W]e believe that we need to wait and see. We believe it's premature to make any decisions. What's important now is that the Palestinians ensure implementation in a way that advances the prospects of peace. We are looking to see what this reconciliation agreement looks like in practical terms, before we make any decisions about future assistance. We understand [Israel's] concerns, and I would just say, as the new Palestinian government's formed, we'll assess it based on its policies and we'll determine the implications for our assistance"<#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/u-s-israel-s-decision-to-withhold-pa-funds-premature-1.360803 "Haaretz"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Hillary Clinton makes unexpectedly harsh criticism of China's human rights" It slipped out during an interview on human rights in Libya, Syria, and other Mideast countries, when U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was asked about human rights in China, and whether the Chinese were frightened by the Arab uprisings:
"They’re worried. They’re trying to stop history, which is a fool’s errand. They cannot do it, but they’re going to hold it off as long as possible."<#stdurl http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2011/06/danger-falling-tyrants/8493/5/ "The Atlantic"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "EU may approve a new $86 billion bailout of Greece next week" European Central Bank (ECB) officials warned of catastrophic consequences if Greece is allowed to restructure its debt (a form of default), calling it "political suicide which leads many into poverty." It was almost exactly a year ago that Europe created a "gobsmacking" aid fund that was used to bail out Greece. (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e100510 ""10-May-10 News -- Europeans approve trillion dollar aid package""#>) It was clear from the beginning that it would only postpone, not solve, Greece's debt problems, but only now are politicians admitting it, since Greece will run out of money to pay debts about a year from now. It's now becoming increasingly clear that the EU will be forced to provide another bailout of Greece, so that Greece can continue paying debtors for an extra year. The amount is expected to be €60 billion ($86 billion), and it will probably be voted on next week at a regularly scheduled meeting of EU finance ministers <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-10/ecb-officials-reject-restructuring-as-greece-struggles-to-repay-its-debts.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Blowback grows from EU's political farce this weekend" We've commented several times on the repeated denials by EU officials on Friday, and how every one of them turned out to be a flat lie. Mainstream analysts and journalists are finally beginning to recognize what we've been saying for years -- that in this generational Crisis era, lying and fraud are the norm, not the exception. Here's how EuroIntelligence describes the situation:
"Guy Schuller, spokesman for Jean-Claude Juncker, admitted yesterday to lying about the secret meeting of finance ministers on Friday. The Wall Street Journal Real Time Brussels (<#stdurl http://blogs.wsj.com/brussels/2011/05/09/luxembourg-lies-on-secret-meeting/ "link"#>) blog has got it all, including the above quote from Mr Schuller, who was contacted by various media groups to whom he denied that the meeting was taking place. "There was a very good reason to deny that the meeting was taking place," Mr Schuller told the WSJ. "It was self-preservation." Helpfully, the WSJ also dug up an older press conference of Mr Juncker, who said "When it becomes serious, you have to lie." In his column on Monday, Wolfgang Münchau also commented on Mr Schuller's lie, adding that he did not believe the pronouncement that the meeting did not discuss a Greek exit from the eurozone either. Furthermore, he no longer believed any statement by any EU officials in respect of this crisis. We are in the stage of the crisis where officials are lying all the time. Lucas Zeise, in his column in FT Deutschland, says the outbreak of lies is the best metric for the pending break-up of the eurozone. He recalls various currency crises from the 1970s and 1980s, in which officials also lied that nothing would happen, until it happened. Zeise says two necessary conditions to avoid a break-up are the acceptance of a transfer union, financed, for example, by a tax on exporters, and the tolerance of large wage increases in northern European countries."<#stdurl http://www.eurointelligence.com "EuroIntelligence"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Finland's 'True Finns' threaten delay of Portugal's bailout" As we reported a few days ago (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110506 ""6-May-11 World View""#>), Portugal has requested a bailout from the EU, and was promised a €78 billion bailout in principle, although Portuguese Prime Minister José Sócrates lied about the details when he announced it. The Portugal bailout has been pushed off the front pages by the growing Greek debt crisis, but now it's time for the bailout in principle turn into a real cash bailout. All eurozone countries unanimously have to approve any bailout package, but Finland's approval depends on a vote by its legislature. The problem is that the nationalistic, euro-skeptic "True Finns" party made a strong showing in Finland's elections two weeks ago, and now they're threatening to hold up the bailout until Portugal goes into default and forces the investors to take a "haircut." <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/10/us-finland-bailout-idUSTRE7495BD20110510 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iran's 'Morality Police' will be working overtime this summer" <#inc ww2010.pic g070424b.jpg right "" "An obvious criminal at large on the streets of Tehran (France24)"#> Ever since Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected in 2005, he's been sending out morality police to arrest women who aren't dressed modestly enough. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e070425b ""Iranian police swoop down on women with loose headscarves.""#>) Now, the head of Tehran's "morality police forces" has announced that 70,000 officers would be deployed to enforce public morality regulations this summer. <#stdurl http://www.eurasiareview.com/iran-morality-police-to-work-overtime-this-summer-09052011/ "Radio Zamaneh"#> In a press conference in Istanbul on Monday, Ahmadinejad said that he doubted that the U.S. killed Osama bin Laden on May 1, that the U.S. is refusing to identify the "real" perpetrators of the 9/11 attacks, and that the West is still hiding the truth about the Holocaust, if it happened at all. He portrayed Iran as a cooperative nation of freedom and love and friendship, forced into a righteous battle against the eternally evil forces of global imperialism, led by the United States and Israel. <#stdurl http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0510/Ahmadinejad-Iran-fighting-a-righteous-battle-with-evil-forces "CS Monitor"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=759 "11-May-11 News -- Syrian regime shooting at anything that moves"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110510b 10-May-11 News -- US housing price fall accelerates, while Greece's euro debt crisis widens =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110510b.head 10-May-11 News -- US housing price fall accelerates, while Greece's euro debt crisis widens =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110510b.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110510b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110510b.date 10-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110510b.txt1 The return of toxic synthetic securities =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110510b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "US housing price fall accelerates, while Greece's euro debt crisis widens" For the last four years, politicians, journalists and analysts have been saying, almost on a daily basis, "housing prices have bottomed out," even though that's mathematically impossible in view of the 7-10 million homes that are in foreclosure or close to foreclosure. These are the same people who, in 2004-7, were saying that there was no housing bubble in the first place. <#inc ww2010.pic g110509a.gif center "" "Zillow home value index, 1996-present"#> In fact, the opposite is happening, according to <#stdurl http://www.zillow.com/blog/research/2011/05/08/no-respite-from-housing-recession-in-first-quarter/ "Zillow."#> Home values fell three percent in the first quarter of this year, accelerating to the fastest rate since 2008. 28% of homes are now "underwater," compared to just 22% a year ago. This means that the rate of foreclosures is going to INCREASE, not decrease. Last year's claims that housing prices had "bottomed out" were the result of being propped up in 2009 and early 2010 by federal stimulus programs, such as tax credits worth up to $8,000 for first-time homebuyers, according to Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries, in a <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-09/u-s-underwater-homeowners-increase-to-28-percent-zillow-says.html "Bloomberg"#> interview. That program "was stealing demand from the future." Now that the stimulus programs have ended, the housing crash is accelerating again. The housing bubble grew for 11 years before it popped (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e091012 ""The global housing bubble began in the mid-1990s.""#>), and by the Law of Mean Reversion, we can expect the housing collapse to continue for a roughly equivalent period of time, continuing through almost all of the current decade. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Euro crisis worsens, as S&P again cuts Greece's credit rating" Standard & Poor's ratings services cut Greece's credit rating by two notches on Monday, and said that further reductions are possible, according to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-09/greece-s-credit-rating-is-cut-to-b-from-bb-by-s-p-may-be-reduced-further.html "Bloomberg."#> According to S&P's John Chambers:
"The downgrade reflects our view of increasing sentiment among Greece’s key euro-zone official creditors to extend the debt payment maturities of their 80 billion euros ($115 billion) of bilateral loans pooled by the European Commission. As part of such an extension, we believe the euro-zone creditor governments would likely seek ‘comparability of treatment’ from commercial creditors in the form of their similarly extending bond and loan maturities."In other words, the EU governments are all going to have to take a "haircut" (lose a chunk of the principal they invested), and they're going to demand that private investors take the same "haircut." The historical average "haircut" in such situations is 40% recovery, meaning 60% loss of principal. So if you're a private investor, it might not be a good idea to invest in Greek bonds. Recall that a credit default swap (CDS) is a kind of insurance policy on debt that pays off when the underlying debt defaults. When CDS prices rise, it means that investors are increasingly afraid that the underlying debts will default. Once the market has set a CDS price, it's possible to compute what investors believe is the probability that the insurance policy will have to be paid off. The following chart shows the computed probability of default for the bonds of several European countries: <#inc ww2010.pic g110509b.gif center "" "Probability of government default for various European countries, based on CDS prices (Globe&Mail)"#> So, investors believe that the probability of default is 72% for Greece, and about 43% each for Ireland and Portugal. The deteriorating situation comes after a weekend of total farce. On Friday, Spiegel said that there would be a secret meeting of EU finance ministers in Luxembourg to discuss the possibility of Greece leaving the euro currency and reinstating its old drachma currency. EU officials immediately came out and claimed that there would be no meeting, that if there were a meeting it wouldn't be about Greece, if it were about Greece it wouldn't be about Greece defaulting, and that the idea of Greece leaving euroland was not under any consideration. By Saturday, it turned out that all those claims were complete lies, and that there had been a previously unscheduled meeting in Luxembourg to discuss a Greek default. However, they still insisted that Greece leaving euroland was not under any consideration. As I pointed out, why should we believe that, when everything else was a lie? On Monday on the BBC, I heard one financial analyst (whose name unfortunately I didn't catch) give a lengthy explanation of the latter option. He said that Greece was using the threat of leaving euroland to gain leverage for better terms from the EU negotiators. In other words, a Greek departure from the euro WAS under consideration, at least by Greece, and so even that last claim was a lie. So every statement by EU politicians on Friday was a flat lie. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The return of toxic synthetic securities" The biggest part of the financial crisis was the collapse in value of tens of trillions of dollars in fraudulent synthetic financial instruments (collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs), backed by residential mortgage loans. When the real estate market began to collapse, so did the banking system. (<#hreftext ww2010.i.smoking100414 ""Financial Crisis Inquiry hearings provide 'smoking gun' evidence of widespread criminal fraud""#>) Now JP Morgan and other investment banks are doing it again, creating synthetic securities, but this time they're backed by US junk bonds, rather than residential mortgage loans, according to the <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/168566e8-49bc-11e0-acf0-00144feab49a.html "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>. The article points out that, separate from the real estate market collapse, there was a collapse of the junk bonds market in the early 2000s, when the dot-com bubble burst. Investment bankers are saying that "this time it's different," and these new synthetic securities won't cause a crisis like the last ones did. But an analysis by Yves Smith's <#stdurl http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/03/shades-of-2007-synthetic-junk-bonds.html "Naked Capitalism"#> blog disagrees: "But you can achieve the same nasty outcomes via leverage. In the old collateralized obligation market..., investors would do correlation trades (going long one tranche and short another) and would borrow against the trade to enhance returns. So don’t assume the overall activity is less risky because the instruments aren’t as intrinsically dodgy." It needs to be pointed out again and again that the same people who perpetrated the widespread fraud seven or eight years ago are still in the same jobs perpetrating the same frauds. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the punishment has not yet been harsh enough, and so generational attitudes and behaviors haven't changed enough, just as an alcoholic doesn't stop drinking until he really hits bottom. That's another reason why we can be certain that the real financial crisis has barely begun. It will take a much larger financial disaster to permanently change the attitudes and behaviors of the current generations, and that will be coming soon. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=758 "10-May-11 News -- US housing price fall accelerates, while Greece's euro debt crisis widens"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110510 10-May-11 World View -- Syria's uprising violence spreads to Damascus =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110510.head 10-May-11 World View -- Syria's uprising violence spreads to Damascus =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110510.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110510.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110510.date 10-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110510.txt1 As Arab uprisings continue, Turkey loses credibility and Iran becomes alarmed =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110510.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria's uprising violence spreads to Damascus" <#inc ww2010.pic g110509c.gif right "" "Syrian cities where clashes are occurring (BBC)"#> The uprising in Syria has stayed away from the capital city Damascas, so far, because of the strong army presence. But now it's getting closer, as clashes occurred in a western suburb. Clashes continued in cities all across Syria. The regime continues to step up counter-measures by cutting off electricity and telephone lines, and by going from house to house and arresting hundreds of people. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13330069 "BBC"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "As Arab uprisings continue, Turkey loses credibility and Iran becomes alarmed" For years, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan won popularity in the Arab streets by confronting Israel. But now Erdogan is losing credibility by delaying any reaction to the Arab uprisings, first in Libya and now in Syria. Only last week did Erdogan reverse position and demand that Libya's Muammar Gaddafi step down, and he's still equivocating on the issue of Syria violence. His only comment on Syria's president Bashar al-Assad was an indirect one: "I find it necessary to repeat my warning to countries in the region: Equality, justice and democracy are not the right of some countries but of every nation." <#stdurl http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/middle-east/110507/turkey-libya-syria-arab-spring-protests "Global Post"#> As Turkey risks losing credibility, Iran is viewing the increasing violence in Syria with more and more alarm. Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has been Iran's closest Arab friend, and has provided a gateway into the Arab world and a partner to Iran in the support of Lebanon’s Hizbollah and of Palestinian groups. Even if al-Assad survives, he's going to have to be less accommodating to Iran to satisfy the Sunni protesters. <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b67e689c-7a64-11e0-af64-00144feabdc0.html "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Nato charged with war crimes after letting 61 migrants die of hunger and thirst" Nato ignored calls for help from a boat in the Mediterranean off the coast of Libya carrying 72 migrants trying to reach to Lampedusa island in Italy. As the migrants lost fuel and ran adrift, they contacted Nato via satellite phone, and were visited by a helicopter that lowered water and food to them. However, the helicopter left, and there was no further help, leaving them to die. Ignoring a cry for help is a violation of international law, and Nato may be charged with war crimes. The boat carried 47 Ethiopians, seven Nigerians, seven Eritreans, six Ghanaians and five Sudanese migrants. Twenty were women and two were small children, one of whom was just one year old. <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/08/nato-ship-libyan-migrants "Guardian"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Sectarian violence in Cairo worries Egypt's Supreme Council" The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which is Egypt's current interim government following the uprising that forced Hosni Mubarak to step down, is responding harshly to the sectarian violence between Muslims and Coptic Christians that occurred in Cairo over the weekend, killing 9 people. The violence was triggered by rumors that Christians had abducted a woman who had converted to Islam and married a Muslim man, which Christians say never happened. Fearing that sectarian violence might spread, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces arrested 190 people in connection with the violence, and will try them in military courts, "as a deterrent to all those who think of toying with the potential of this nation." <#stdurl http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0508/Sectarian-violence-in-Cairo-has-Egypt-on-edge "CS Monitor"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Vengeful Pakistan official fails to unmask CIA station chief" An apparent attempt by Pakistan's media to unmask the identity of the CIA station chief in Islamabad failed over the weekend, because the media reports did not provide the correct name. American officials suspect the attempt was the work of someone in the Pakistani government, possibly Pakistan's principal spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence directorate (ISI). <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/09/us-usa-pakistan-cia-idUSTRE7486LH20110509 "Reuters"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=758 "10-May-11 News -- US housing price fall accelerates, while Greece's euro debt crisis widens"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110509b 9-May-11 News -- World food price index holds steady at historic highs =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110509b.head 9-May-11 News -- World food price index holds steady at historic highs =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110509b.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110509b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110509b.date 9-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110509b.txt1 Unrest over food prices is growing =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110509b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "World food price index holds steady at historic highs" The food price index of the U.N. Food and Agriculture Association (FAO) held steady during April, after increasing in eight of the previous nine months. There was little change in the index because although international grain prices increased sharply in April, the rise was more than offset by declines in dairy, sugar, and rice, while oils and meat prices were mostly unchanged, according to the <#stdurl http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/73931/icode/ "FAO."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110508.gif center "" "FAO Food Price Index, April 2011"#> The outlook for cereal grain prices in 2011 is good, according to an analyst quoted by <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jmsywNxAEBLsrFK36ZmddzVvohjQ?docId=CNG.854889179a7ec590cda41e5232f39aed.01 "AFP,"#> but "Among all the cereals, maize is the most worrisome. This year we would need above-average, if not record, yields in the United States for the maize situation to improve, but maize plantings so far have been delayed considerably due to cool and wet conditions on the ground." The price index remains well the 2008 levels that caused riots across the developing world. The level of unrest hasn't been as high this time, because governments have reduced the severity of the problem by providing food subsidies, and by closer cooperation with neighboring countries. Still, the uprisings that have spread across the Arab world were originally triggered by high food prices. Black Africa (also called sub-Saharan Africa) has been particularly hard hit by the rise in food prices, according to the <#stdurl http://www.observer.org.sz/index.php?news=24404 "Swaziland Observer."#> High poverty rates will cause additional uprisings, according to the article, and in Uganda there have already been organized protests that have turned violent. Food prices have been increasing almost steadily since 2002, in good times and bad, in good weather or bad. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, we're continuing to see what I call the "Malthus Effect," a continuing increase in the price of food as the population grows faster than the supply of food, especially during a generational Crisis era. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=756 "9-May-11 News -- World food price index holds steady at historic highs"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110509 9-May-11 World View -- Iran's Ahmadinejad acquiesces to Khamenei =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110509.head 9-May-11 World View -- Iran's Ahmadinejad acquiesces to Khamenei =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110509.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110509.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110509.date 9-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110509.txt1 Hamas security forces break up pro-bin Laden rally in Gaza =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110509.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iran's Ahmadinejad acquiesces to Khamenei" <#inc ww2010.pic g110508b.jpg right "" "The winner -- Khamenei meets with members of the High Council of Mayors (leader.ir)"#> Iran's president Mahmoud Ahamadinejad has acquiesced in his bitter dispute with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110507b ""7-May-11 News -- Resignation of Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may be imminent""#>), and will keep his job for the time being. However, Ahmadinejad has angered a lot of conservatives for his disobeying Khamenei, so the bitter fighting is going to continue. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/08/us-iran-politics-idUSTRE7471IZ20110508 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Experts skeptical of Iran's new 'cyber attack' claim" Last week, Iran claimed to be the target of a new "cyber attack," following the Stuxnet attack last year that attacked and damaged Iran's nuclear capabilities. However, experts are skeptical of the new claims, and suspect that Iran is making the claim for domestic political purposes. As I've described many times (see details in my 2007 report, <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e070702 ""Iran's President Ahmadinejad facing a growing 'generation gap'""#>), many of Iran's policies represent a desperate attempt to restore national unity by mimicking the claims of Iran's last crisis war, the Great Islamic Revolution followed by the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s. Iran is particularly concerned about domestic unrest, in view of recent violence and the general unrest in the region. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/analysis-experts-sceptical-on-new-iran-cyber-attack-claim/ "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Hamas security forces break up pro-bin Laden rally in Gaza" Hamas on Saturday broke up a Salafist protest in Gaza against the killing of al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden. Hamas forces have clashed with Salafists numerous times in recent weeks, as talk of a reconciliation with the Fatah gathered momentum. The Salafists have advocated much more violent action against Israel. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?ID=219627 "Jerusalem Post"#> I've noticed that the word "Salafist" is appearing much more often in news stories in the last 2-3 weeks, as another way of distinguishing terrorists from ordinary Muslims. In this context, "Salafists" refers to hardline groups with links to al-Qaeda. This word is in contrast to "Islamist," which is a more general term for hardline Muslim terrorist groups. Now journalists seems to be using the world "Salafist" to distinguish between different kinds of Islamists. Hamas is not linked to al-Qaeda, and while it (sometimes) promotes violence against Israel, it does not sponsor international terror as al-Qaeda and Hizbollah have done. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russian firefighters battling dozens of wildfires in Siberia" Firefighters are battling 34 wildfires in Siberia on an area of over 1,300 hectares (3200 acres), with the fires spreading rapidly over larger areas. In the summer of 2010, an enormous heat wave in Central Russia caused massive wildfires across the country, which killed 62 people and left thousands homeless. This was one of the principal causes of Russia's wheat shortage last year, and caused Russia to ban wheat exports. <#stdurl http://en.rian.ru/russia/20110508/163921632.html "Ria Novosti"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia plans to deploy new warships in the Caspian Sea" Russia plans to deploy new coastal missiles and warships in the Caspian , over the next few years. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.subref e100625 e100625e ""25-Jun-10 News -- A naval arms race is growing on the Caspian Sea.""#>) The Caspian Sea is surrounded by Azerbaijan, Iran, Russia, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan and tensions have been growing for some years. <#stdurl http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90777/90853/7371060.html "Xinhua"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Xenophobia returns to South Africa" It's been three years since violence in Zimbabwe caused millions of refugees to flee to South Africa, where they were subjected to violent, gruesome attacks. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e080531 ""South Africa will create 'temporary shelters' for migrants, not 'refugee camps.'""#>) Now flareups of anti-immigrant xenophobia are flaring up again, though perpetrators claim that it's not xenophobia because it's really just business related. <#stdurl http://www.timeslive.co.za/local/article1057167.ece/Foreigners-under-threat "Times (S. Africa)"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=756 "9-May-11 News -- World food price index holds steady at historic highs"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110508b 8-May-11 News -- Libya forces breach no-fly zone and destroy Misrata's fuel depots =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110508b.head 8-May-11 News -- Libya forces breach no-fly zone and destroy Misrata's fuel depots =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110508b.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110508b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110508b.date 8-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110508b.txt1 Russia objects to the 'Libya Contact Group' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110508b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Libya forces breach no-fly zone and destroy Misrata's fuel depots" Libya's rebels in Misurata suffered a major setback early Saturday, when Gaddafi's forces breached Nato's no-fly zone and bombed fuel storage tanks, causing them to explode and burn, according to <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Libya-Criticizes-Aid-Plan-that-Skirts-Government--121434474.html "VOA."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110507.jpg center "" "Fuel depot explosion in Misrata Libya (AP)"#> It's not known how the no-fly zone was evaded, but some reports indicate that it was done with helicopters bearing the Red Cross emblems. Government forces have also been scattering land mines in and around Misrata harbor, preventing aid and evacuation ships from docking. The Chinese anti-vehicle mines are dropped by mini-parachutes from rockets that open during flight, according to the <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13323299 "BBC."#> Misrata is the third largest city in Libya, with a population over half a million. It's been under siege by Gaddifi's forces for weeks, and Gaddafi's forces have now destroyed much of Misrata's remaining supply of fuel. Some reports indicate that Misrata will be running out of food within a few weeks, along with other parts of eastern Libya, according to <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/interview-libyan-food-supplies-could-run-out-in-weeks-wfp/ "Reuters"#> The United Nations Security Council originally approved the no-fly zone to save the city of Benghazi from the kind of humanitarian disaster that Misrata is now facing. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The Libya Contact Group" Since the beginning of the military intervention, a way has been sought to aid the opposition so that they could pursue the fight with as little outside help as possible. One approach being considered has been to unfreeze some of Gaddafi's frozen assets and give the money to the rebels. Libya has over $34 billion in frozen assets in the U.S., more than $19.7 billion in the U.K., and about $412.3 million in Switzerland, according to the <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704810504576307251084940750.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>. <#inc ww2010.pic g110507b.jpg right "" "Libya Contact Group (Ahram)"#> In order to determine how to resolve legal issues and provide this aid, several European and Arab countries formed an international group called the "Libya Contact Group." The U.S., Britain, France, Italy, Qatar, Kuwait and Jordan are among the member countries. The Libya Contact Group met on Thursday and agreed to set up a new fund to aid Libya's rebels. It will initially be funded through donations and loans from the U.S. and Europe, according to <#stdurl http://english.ahram.org.eg/Media/News/2011/5/5/2011-634402079862964918-296.gif "Al-Ahram,"#> and frozen funds will be used later. However, only about $250 million were readily available, far less than the $3 billion that that the rebels are requesting. The Contact Group is also coordinating military contributions to the rebels, and this is raising the suspicions of the Russians. As we've reported several times in the past, the Russians are pursuing a policy objective of keeping the stalemate in Libya going on for as long as possible, so that Nato forces will be tied down there, giving Russia's armed forces a free hand in the Caucasus and Central Asia. To this end, the Russians are insisting that any expansion of the Nato military intervention must be approved by the U.N. Security Council, where Russia has a veto, thus giving Russia effective control over Nato. Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is complaining that the Libya Contact Group is seeking a way to set the course of the Libya intervention without having to go through the Security Council, and therefore not subject to a Russian veto. Lavrov said the conflict in Libya was a civil war and the international community should focus on stopping the fighting and not "taking sides," according to <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/russia-criticises-libya-contact-group/ "Reuters"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=755 "8-May-11 News -- Libya forces breach no-fly zone and destroy Misrata's fuel depots"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110508 8-May-11 World View -- EU moves forward with Greece debt default =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110508.head 8-May-11 World View -- EU moves forward with Greece debt default =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110508.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110508.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110508.date 8-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110508.txt1 Muslim-Christian clashes in Cairo kill 10 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110508.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "EU officials contradict Friday's denials on Greece debt meeting" On Friday, Greek and EU financial officials were denying that any unscheduled meeting would occur in Luxembourg, that the meeting had nothing to do with Greece, that Greece would be defaulting on its debt, or that Greece would be exiting euroland. (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110507 ""7-May-11 World View -- Greece denies the rumors that it's leaving euroland""#>) On Saturday it turns out that all of those claims were lies. The only thing that they're still denying is that Greece will be leaving euroland. But they lied about everything else, so why should we believe that? And politicians wonder why they're held in such contempt, and why they're never believed. The old joke that you can tell if a politician is lying by whether his mouth is moving is supposed to be just a joke, but it's far more true than false. According to statements made on Saturday, EU officials discussed a further bailout of Greece, either by extending the bond redemption dates, by imposing a "haircut" of around 50%, or by lending the country more bailout money. There would almost certainly be debt default in one form or another. <#stdurl http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_07/05/2011_389976 "Kathimerini"#> However, one German MP says that Berlin should do everything possible to help Greece leave the euro currency, and reinstate its old drachma currency. Many MPs in Chancellor Angela Merkel's opposition believe that Greece's debt trajectory is unsustainable and action needs to be taken sooner rather than later before the long-term cost becomes far greater. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/07/us-germany-greece-fdp-idUSTRE7461WK20110507 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Palestinian unity government moves toward 'nonviolent resistance'" Following the reconciliation agreement between Fatah and Hamas, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas wants to project to the world that the future unity government will be committed to the same plan as the current government, which is legitimized by Western countries. Although Hamas continues to believe in its right to "armed struggle" against Israel, Hamas officials accept nonviolent resistance, at least for now. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=219688 "Jerusalem Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Muslim-Christian clashes in Cairo kill 10" <#inc ww2010.pic g110507c.jpg right "" "Muslim-Christian clashes in Cairo (AFP)"#> Egypt's cabinet is in crisis talks after clashes between Muslims and Christians killed 10 people (6 Muslims and 3 Christians, according to state television) and injured 186 and set a church ablaze in a working class neighborhood of Cairo. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iLVbRP8BKQN4AkB8yP0tdHbN9HUw?docId=CNG.efeb0e8fb41ec2127d885bf3eec3a7d4.4b1 "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia sees vindication of its North Caucasus policies in bin Laden killing" Russian officials reacted favorably to the killing of Osama bin Laden, but the flow of contradictory statements from the White House about the details of the killing soon changed the mood in Moscow from praise to mockery to concern. The greatest concern is that western forces will withdraw sooner from Afghanistan, leaving it to Russia's faltering army to defend the secular Central Asian dictatorships from Islamists. However, Russia sees the bin Laden killing as a vindication of its own anti-terrorist activities in the North Caucasus provinces. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37888&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=4808049f7ffd5686b476a35a7088a09a "Jamestown"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iraqis humiliated over cancellation of Arab League summit" Iraq's mostly Shia government has sided with the Shia protesters in Bahrain, and against the Sunni rulers. This has angered the Gulf Arab countries, who are committed to using as much force as necessary to crush the protests in Bahrain. The result is that an Arab League summit that had been scheduled to be held in Iraq this year has been postponed until March 2012. Iraq had been hoping that the high prestige summit would restore Iraq's prestige among its neighbors after years of war and economic isolation, and had spent $450 million in preparation, planting palm trees along highways, re-paving roads and restoring Saddam Hussein's palace so that it could be used as a hotel for the Arab League delegates. Iraqi citizens are complaining that the money should have been spent on things like water, electricity, and more food. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/iraq-spent-lavishly-on-postponed-arab-summit/ "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "California's public pensions cost three times as much as private pensions" A study released on Thursday found that California's state government spends three times as much on pensions and other benefits for retired persons as the state's large private corporations. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/trustlaw/news/combatants-in-california-pension-battle-trade-blows/ "Reuters"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=755 "8-May-11 News -- Libya forces breach no-fly zone and destroy Misrata's fuel depots"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110507b 7-May-11 News -- Resignation of Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may be imminent =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110507b.head 7-May-11 News -- Resignation of Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may be imminent =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110507b.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110507b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110507b.date 7-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110507b.txt1 A major theological dispute is splitting the government =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110507b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Resignation of Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may be imminent" A bitter power struggle pitting Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad against the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may lead to the president's resignation as early as Sunday. <#inc ww2010.pic g110506.jpg center "" "Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei"#> It's been fairly clear for a long time that there was a growing coldness between Ahmadinejad and Khamenei. When Ahmadinejad was first elected in 2005, he and Khamenei kissed and embraced in a victory celebration. But there was no such affection when Ahmadinejad was reelected in 2009. Rumors of a split have been growing, but they burst out into the open early in April, when Ahmadinejad dismissed Heydar Moslehi, the head of the Intelligence Ministry, and faithful to Khamenei. Khamenei refused to accept Moslehi's forced resignation, and Moslehi was kept in his job, according to <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/iran-cleric-warns-ahmadinejad-not-to-overestimate-his-power-1.358882 "Haaretz."#> Ahmadinejad responded with his own power play -- he failed to show up at cabinet meetings and missed several scheduled public engagements, including a trip to Qom, home to Iran's religious establishment, where he is increasingly mistrusted, according to <#stdurl http://www.rferl.org/content/ahmadinejad_weakened_by_attacks_on_subordinates/24093844.html "RFERL."#> Then it was Khamenei's turn again. Khamenei's security forces arrested several presidential aides, including two close to Ahmadinejad's chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, whom Khamenei despises. The arrests were based on charges that seem completely bizarre. The aides were accused of sorcery, of using "supernatural powers," and of being "magicians" and invoking djinns (spirits), according to the <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/05/ahmadinejad-allies-charged-with-sorcery "Guardian."#> One of the men, Abbas Ghaffari, was charged as "a man with special skills in metaphysics and connections with the unknown worlds." =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The '12'th Imam' or 'Hidden Imam'" These charges of sorcery are related to Ahmadinejad's claimed devout belief in the Mahdaviat -- the Shia Muslim belief that the Mahdi (or "the 12'th Imam" or "the Hidden Imam") is coming to save mankind. This belief is roughly equivalent to the Christian belief in the second coming of Christ, or the Buddhist belief in the Maitreya -- that a new Buddha is to appear on earth, and will achieve complete enlightenment. This belief, which is shared by Rahim-Mashaei, has been the center of an increasingly widening theological dispute within the government. (See my 2009 report, <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e091109 ""Theological split in Iran widens as opposition protests continue""#> for details.) Ahmadinejad has disobeyed Supreme Leader Khamenei, which is considered to be equivalent to disobeying God. But Ahmadinejad has been paving the way for the return of the Hidden Imam, and as I understand it, he's using his claim that the Hidden Imam's return is imminent as a justification for disobeying Khamenei. Thus, the sorcery charges are related in some way to the beliefs about the Hidden Imam, and are complicated by the fact that, as I understand it, Khamenei himself has claimed in the past to be the Hidden Imam. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iran's Generational Awakening Era" The best way to understand all this craziness is to understand that Iran is in a generational Awakening era, 23 years after the end of climax of Iran's last generational crisis war, the Great Islamic Revolution followed by the Iran/Iraq war. Any Awakening era is characterized by a "generation gap," where the young people, born after the last crisis war, demonstrate against the austere rules laid down by the war survivors, who are committing their lives to do everything possible to preventing any similar war from occurring again. Thus, the huge demonstrations that followed Ahmadinejad's 2009 reelection, widely assumed to be fraudulent, are very similar to the huge demonstrations that occurred in America's last Awakening era. (See my 2007 report, <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e070612b ""Boomers commemorate the 40th anniversary of the Summer of Love.""#>) Every Awakening has a climax which establishes a "winner" between the older and younger generations. The climax of America's Awakening era would be President Nixon's resignation in 1974. However, the resignation of Ahmadinejad, if it occurs, would not be equivalent, and would not be a climax, since Khamenei would still be in power. There's no reason why there would have to be a one to one correspondence between all events in Awakening eras, but if one were to match this up to some event, the best choice would be President Lyndon Johnson's 1968 decision not to run again. At any rate, the generational conflict in Iran is far from over, and is still years away from reaching a climax. A climax where the older generation wins would be Khamenei's completely crushing any further opposition, as in the Tiananmen Square massacre. I personally do not expect this outcome, because most young people in Iran, even young people in the Revolutionary Guards, are generally pro-Western and generally have nothing against Israel. My expectation is that, at some point, Khamenei and his followers will be removed, probably via a "velvet revolution," and that, when forced to choose, Iran will be on the side of the West in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=751 "7-May-11 News -- Resignation of Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may be imminent"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110507 7-May-11 World View -- Greece denies the rumors that it's leaving euroland =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110507.head 7-May-11 World View -- Greece denies the rumors that it's leaving euroland =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110507.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110507.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110507.date 7-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110507.txt1 Protesters defy Syrian army by moving to another town =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110507.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece denies the rumors that it's leaving euroland" Friday was another one of those days where all you can do is just shake your head in disbelief. It all started with a <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,761201,00.html#ref=nlint "Der Spiegel"#> story that a secret meeting of finance ministers was to be held in Luxembourg on Friday evening to discuss Greece's massive problems, with the possibility that Greece would abandon the euro currency and reintroduce its old currency, the drachma. This set off a frenzy, as Greek officials denied the report, according to <#stdurl http://english.capital.gr/News.asp?id=1188476 "capital.gr"#>:
"The report regarding the forthcoming exit by Greece from the euro zone, beyond the fact that it is untrue, is written with inconceivable frivolity given that fact that it has been repeatedly denied by the Greek government as well as the other governments of the European Union. Such reports are a provocation and undermine the efforts of Greece and of the euro, and serve speculators. ... The report is not true, it's factually wrong. We have no intention to leave the euro zone. [The report is] ridiculous. ... I haven't heard anything about such a meeting taking place."Well, Dear Reader, hold on to your hat, because you're not going to believe this: There WAS a meeting in Luxembourg, attended by finance ministers from Germany, France, Netherlands, Finland, and ... wait for it! ... Greece, according to the <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/gilts/8499652/Europe-meets-to-discuss-Greece-debt-restructuring.html "Telegraph."#> The agenda for the meeting was restructuring Greece's debt -- a form of default that would write doen billions of euros, potentially imperilling Europe's banks, particularly those in Germany. However, officials denied that Greece leaving euroland was being considered. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Protesters defy Syrian army by moving to another town" <#inc ww2010.pic g110506b.jpg right "" "Protesters in Lebanon showing solidarity with Syrian protesters (Reuters)"#> Syria's government used blockades and tanks in the hope of preventing the regular Friday anti-government demonstrations after midday prayers, but tens of thousands of them protested in cities across Syria on Friday, as a "Day of Defiance." The city of Daraa, which has been the epicenter of the protests, was surrounded by tanks, but that didn't stop the protesters, who flocked to the nearby town of Tafas, and gathered in a square near the old mosque, carrying placards with the word "leave." <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/syrian-villagers-flock-outside-deraa-witnesses/ "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Tunisian police break up anti-government protest" Violence against anti-government protesters is increasing in Tunisia, whose "Jasmine Revolution" started the uprisings across the Arab world. Tunisian police with teargas and batons scattered protesters demanding the government's resignation on Friday in the most violent confrontation for weeks. The demonstrators say that they fear that July elections will bring Islamists into power. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/tunisian-police-break-up-anti-government-protest/ "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China begins 'military diplomacy' with its concerned neighbors" China's neighbors in Asia have been become increasingly alarmed about the increasingly confrontational actions in claiming sovereignty over islands in the South China Sea that have historically been claimed as sovereign terroritory of other countries. Thus, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has launched a military diplomacy program to convince neighbors that the PLA are really very nice guys after all. Whether this "smile diplomacy" is really propaganda warfare remains to be seend <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37899&tx_ttnews[backPid]=25&cHash=b70414e2b0d45356a838334e5dd03e25 "Jamestown"#> However, China's "military diplomacy" is not working with the Philippines, where there has been a military confrontation with the Chinese over Reed Bank, an island in the South China Sea claimed by the Philippines. On March 2, two Chinese patrol boats aggressively approached a Filipino survey ship near Reed Bank, forcing it to flee. The incident is causing the Philippines to increase its military strength in the South China Sea, with the help of the U.S. Vietnam and Malaysia have also upgraded their military strength in response to China's threat. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37902&tx_ttnews[backPid]=25&cHash=31e224a22e4a1dad429e5b71c7d8682a "Jamestown"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "EU gives extra 85 million euros to Palestinians" The reconciliation agreement between Hamas and Fatah has caused the Israelis to withhold tax collections from the Palestinian Authority, for fear that any money given to the PA would be channeled to Hamas's terrorist activities. The Israelis collect the customs duties and other levies on behalf of the PA, and currently owes the PA $105 million. However, the European Union, pointing out that the PA needs the money to pay salaries of essential workers and provide benefits, said on Friday that it would provide an extra $124 million to the PA. This is in addition to the $145 million already approved for 2011. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/eu-gives-extra-85-million-euros-to-palestinians/ "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pakistan's intelligence chief heads for Washington and possible resignation" <#inc ww2010.pic g110506c.jpg right "" "File photo of ISI chief Shuja Pasha. The photo on the desk next to him is of Benazir Bhutto, the assassinated wife of Pakistan's president Asif Ali Zardari."#> Chief Lt-Gen Shuja Pasha, the head of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, headed for Washington on Friday to smooth relations with the U.S. The apparent incompetence of the ISI following the killing of Osama bin Laden has thrown the agency into crisis, and there are rumors that Pasha will be used as a scapegoat and be forced to step down from his position. <#stdurl http://www.dawn.com/2011/05/07/isi-chief-leaves-for-us.html "Dawn (Pakistan)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "'Rich Nations' miss climate change fund deadline" The "rich nations" have missed a U.N. deadline for providing information on how much money they're going to give to a proposed $30 billion fund to help developing nations adapt to climate change. Everyone was supposed to provide a statement by May 1, but among the industrialized nations, only Russia and Ukraine provided statements, and both of those statements said that they weren't going to contribute anything. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/rich-nations-miss-un-climate-finance-deadline/ "Reuters"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=751 "7-May-11 News -- Resignation of Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may be imminent"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110506b 6-May-11 News -- Crash of silver prices may signal further market plunge =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110506b.head 6-May-11 News -- Crash of silver prices may signal further market plunge =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110506b.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110506b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110506b.date 6-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110506b.txt1 Contagion may spread from silver to commodities to stocks =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110506b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Crash of silver prices may signal further market plunge" It all started on Sunday evening, when a dramatic international price collapse began when silver fell 12% in Asian markets, according to <#stdurl http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970203390704576305213967197384.html "Barrons"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>. After reaching $48.35 last week on Friday, by Thursday it had fallen almost 30% to $34.95. <#inc ww2010.pic g110505.jpg center "" "Silver bars"#> The price collapse accelerated on Thursday and, as of this writing (on Thursday evening), the price of silver is still falling in after hours trading, according to the <#stdurl http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/05/05/silver-keeps-falling-after-hours-down-more-than-11-on-the-day/ "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>. The collapse of silver has had a "contagion" effect on other commodities prices, according to <#stdurl http://www.cnbc.com/id/42920693 "CNBC."#> On Thursday, oil fell 9%, gold fell 2%, rice fell 5%, and soybeans and wheat feel 2-3%. <#inc ww2010.pic g110505b.gif right "" "10-year historical silver (top) and gold price charts. (Monex)"#> A survey of economists by <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/05/us-commodities-view-idUSTRE74451D20110505 "Reuters"#> indicates that many of them expect the plunge in commodity prices to continue. According to Shawn Hackett of Hackett Financial Advisors:
"I've been pretty bearish over the last several months due to the unrealistic chasing of commodities that has taken place. My expectation is that ultimately from the highs that we've recently set to the lows that we will likely set, I am looking for a minimum of 20 percent down. The inflation trade got super crowded. There were record-long speculative positions in all commodities, the TV was telling you how hyper-inflation was around the corner ... they were all signs that markets were not going up based on fundamentals, but they were going up because money was chasing money. All of a sudden, all of the top-money leaves the market, and then the market has to find what the fundamental value is based upon supply and demand. Real demand is not supporting these prices and the speculators are getting out. My view is that a correction is going to take at least 6 months."=inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Danger to stock prices" The most relevant question for most people is whether the "contagion" is going to spread to stock prices. The stock price bubble actually achieved something of a milestone in the past week: The Dow Jones Industrial Average actually rose above 200% of its long-term trend value for the first time since the Lehman collapse in September, 2008. So, for the first time since then, stocks are overpriced by a factor of more than 2. (See my <#hreftext ww2010.i.djia "Dow Jones historical page."#>) Stocks have been overpriced by this measure continuously since 1995. Another way of looking at it is that the S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio index is at 17.16, according to the <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html?mod=topnav_2_3002 "Wall Street Journal."#> P/E ratios (also called valuations) have been above the historical average of 14 continuously since 1995, sometimes WAY above average. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e101104 ""4-Nov-10 News -- Fed announces $600 billion quantitative easing.""#>) So by applying the Law of Mean Reversion to either of these measures, we see that the market is overdue for a crash at least as far as the Dow 3000 level, and will stay there for many years. Obviously, there's no way to predict whether the current crash in silver prices, and the resultant selloff in other commodities, is going to be the trigger that leads to this panic and crash. The selloff in silver isn't the only ominous sign. The euro crisis worsens literally almost every day. It's almost impossible to believe the bond yields (interest rates) for Greece, Ireland and Portugal -- with Greece's 2-year bond yield well above an incredible 20%. And let's not forget that there could be a major Mideast crisis almost any day. So all I'm going to do is warn my readers, as I've done on three or four occasions in the past, that we're now at a particularly susceptible time, when a lot of factors appear to be converging in a dangerous way. You should take additional steps to protect yourself and your family for at least the next couple of months, until it becomes clear whether things are going to settle down again. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=750 "6-May-11 News -- Crash of silver prices may signal further market plunge"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110506 6-May-11 World View -- Turkey braces for Syrian refugees =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110506.head 6-May-11 World View -- Turkey braces for Syrian refugees =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110506.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110506.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110506.date 6-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110506.txt1 Republican terrorists in Northern Ireland raising money in U.S. =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110506.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey braces for possible refugee influx from Syria" <#inc ww2010.pic g110505c.jpg right "" "Syrian tanks and armored vehicles (CNN)"#> The Syrian military has arrested hundreds of protesters, and killed about 500. As it prepares for this week's massive demonstrations following Friday's midday prayers, the army is moving some 30 tanks and 40 armored vehicles from Daraa to Banias. <#stdurl http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/05/05/syria.unrest/ "CNN"#> We've heard a lot about masses of refugees from Tunisia and Libya reaching Italy, but now a new refugee problem is growing, as the government violence in Syria is causing a wave of refugees arriving in Turkey. Turkey has already set up a refugee camp for 300 Syrians. <#stdurl http://www.setimes.com/cocoon/setimes/xhtml/en_GB/features/setimes/features/2011/05/04/feature-03 "Southeast European Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Republican terrorists in Northern Ireland raising money in U.S." Terrorist splinter groups from the old Irish Republican Army (IRA) are threatening new attacks in both mainland U.K. and Northern Ireland, and are raising money in the United States to support their activities. In the 1960s-90s, in a period known as "the Troubles," there was sectarian violence between a Protestant majority that wished to remain a part of the U.K. and Catholic Republicans who wanted who sought union with the Republic of Ireland. The violence and terrorist attacks mostly ended with peace agreements in 1998 and 2005, but splinter groups are now threatening renewed violence. <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704322804576303083716808452.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Portugal's Jose Socrates apparently misrepresented bailout agreement" When Portuguese Prime Minister José Sócrates announced the EU/IMF bailout on Wednesday, without revealing details, he sold it as being almost painless, requiring few new austerity measures beyond those that had already been implemented. However, <#stdurl http://www.eurointelligence.com "EuroIntelligence"#> says that a Financial Times analysis proves that Socrates lied. (Quelle surprise!) The actual memorandum indicates harsh tax increases, special taxes on pensions and welfare benefits, freezes on public sector pay, and labor reforms that make it easier to dismiss workers. <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3e3f711c-7683-11e0-b05b-00144feabdc0.html "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey reverses position and calls for Libya's Gaddafi to step down" Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for Libya's Muammar Gaddafi to step down right away. This is a shift in Turkey's position, which previously had called for negotiation, and originally opposed any Nato military intervention at all. According to Erdogan:
"A new period started in the history of Libya. Words ran out on the Libya matter. At this point, what needs to be done is for Muammar Gaddafi, who is holding the government in Tripoli in Libya, to leave power immediately and to fulfil his historical and humanitarian responsibility. Gaddafi has ignored calls for change in Libya and instead preferred blood, tears and pressure against his own people. Under current conditions, the best way is to return power to its genuine owners, the Libyan people. Libya is not the property of a single man or one family.<#stdurl http://www.setimes.com/cocoon/setimes/xhtml/en_GB/features/setimes/features/2011/05/04/feature-01 "Southeast European Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "India considers hunting down terrorists on Pakistan's soil" America's successful military intervention in Pakistan that led to the death of Osama bin Laden has raised "tormented" questions among Indians, who wonder why they can't do the same. After the horrendous November, 2008, terrorist attack on Mumbai, India wanted to send its military into Pakistan to go after the Lashkar-e-Toiba terrorist group, but was stopped from doing so. Indian Army Chief Gen VK Singh said that Indian armed forces were "competent" to carry out a similar operation. "I would like to say only this that if such a chance comes, then all the three arms (of the military) are competent to do this," he said, but added, "Whether the US sought permission or not (from Pakistan), it has to be asked from them." <#stdurl http://tribune.com.pk/story/162161/taking-a-lesson-from-the-us-raid-can-india-hunt-down-terrorists-in-pakistan/ "Express Tribune (Delhi)"#> Pakistan's Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir responded to Singh in a press conference: "Of course, the United States is a friend and important partner in the fight against terror. But it’s worth stating here that any country, that any other country, that ever acts on the assumption that it has might and can mimic unilateralism of any sort, it will find that it has made a basic miscalculation. We feel that that sort of adventure and miscalculation would result in a terrible catastrophe." <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-05/pakistan-warns-against-further-unilateral-raids-after-bin-laden-operation.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Europeans consider resettling Roma Gypsies in Russia" This is really mind-blowing, but apparently is being seriously considered. Last year, France deported thousands of Roma Gypsies to their homes in eastern Europe, a move that was popular in France, but condemned by politicians in other countries. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e100905 ""5-Sep-10 News -- Thousands protest Gypsy expulsions from France.""#>) But now, with Russia's population facing some serious declines, the Russians and the Europeans are discussing the possibility of resettling all the Roma in Russia and the Ukraine, which have a tradition of tolerance for the Roma, as reflected in Russian novels and music. "In this way, by counting on our accommodating spirit and hospitality, ‘tolerant’ Europe wants on our account to resolve the problem of its own intolerance. And it is worth noting that in the circles in and around the powers that be in Russia, there is actively being prepared the basis for such decisions." <#stdurl http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2011/05/window-on-eurasia-are-eus-roma-about-to.html "Paul Goble"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "France considers early troop withdrawal from Afghanistan" The U.S. has about 90,000 troops in Afghanistan, while European countries, including France and Germany, have another 13,000 or so. The plan is to begin withdrawing troops this year, with complete withdrawal planned for 2014. But after the death of Osama bin Laden, France is reconsidering its options, and may withdraw its troops sooner. <#stdurl http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2011/0504/France-mulls-quicker-Afghan-withdrawal-after-Osama-bin-Laden-s-death "CS Monitor"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=750 "6-May-11 News -- Crash of silver prices may signal further market plunge"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110505b 5-May-11 News -- Palestinians celebrate Fatah-Hamas reconciliation ceremony in Cairo =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110505b.head 5-May-11 News -- Palestinians celebrate Fatah-Hamas reconciliation ceremony in Cairo =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110505b.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110505b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110505b.date 5-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110505b.txt1 Israeli prime minister expresses grave concern =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110505b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Palestinians celebrate Fatah-Hamas reconciliation ceremony in Cairo" Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank and refugee camps celebrated on Wednesday. In Gaza's Square of the Unknown Soldier, a demonstration turned into a raucous party of thousands cheering, chanting and waving flags, according to the <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/04/palestine-joy-fatah-hamas-reconciliation-pact "Guardian."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110504.jpg center "" "Palestinians celebrate"#> The occasion was a ceremony in Cairo, attended by representatives from the U.N., the EU, and the Arab League, for the signing of a reconciliation agreement between Fatah and Hamas. The two factions have been bitter rivals since a 2007 war, when Hamas defeated Fatah for control of Gaza. Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority (PA), the governing body associated with Fatah, and Khaled Meshaal, leader of the Hamas, identified by the U.S. as a terrorist group, met for the first time in five years to sign the agreement. The reconciliation agreement is an important step on the way to getting the United Nations General Assembly to unilaterally create a Palestinian state in September by international mandate. A reconciliation is an important prerequisite. Abbas said that they had forever turned "the black page of divisions." Meshall spelled out Hamas's goal:
"Our aim is to establish a free and completely sovereign Palestinian state on the West Bank and Gaza Strip, whose capital is Jerusalem, without any settlers and without giving up a single inch of land and without giving up on the right of return [of Palestinian refugees]."In fact, several years ago, the Middle East Quartet (United Nations, Russian Federation, United States, European Union) set three conditions for Hamas: recognize the state of Israel; renounce violence; and honor past Israeli-Palestinian agreements. Hamas has said that it will not agree to any of these conditions. Furthermore, Hamas officials have been openly criticial of the U.S. military action that led to Osama bin Laden's death, according to the <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=219235 "Jerusalem Post."#> On Monday, Hamas Gaza prime minister Ismail Haniyeh, said:
"We condemn the assassination and the killing of an Arab holy warrior. ... We regard this, as a continuation of the American policy based on oppression and the shedding of Muslim and Arab blood."<#inc ww2010.pic g110504b.jpg right "" "Benjamin Netanyahu in London with David Cameron"#> Thus, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu was extremely critical of the agreement:
"What happened today in Cairo is a tremendous blow to peace and a great victory for terrorism. I think the fate of the Middle East and the fate of peace hangs in the balance."Netanyahu made this statement while visiting British prime minister David Cameron. Cameron's office had issued a statement critical of Netanyahu that said:
"This is a time to pursue not ignore the Middle East peace process. That will be his main message to Mr Netanyahu today. We need to study the detail of the agreement but, as the prime minister was making clear in the House of Commons yesterday, we hope that Palestinian unity between Fatah and Hamas will be a step forward."However, after the meeting, Cameron was more conciliatory:
"The leaders discussed today's announcement on Palestinian unity. Prime Minister Cameron said that any new Palestinian government must reject violence, recognise Israel's right to exist and engage in the peace process, and that Britain would judge it by its actions."It's always interesting to watch politicians dance like this, waiting until they have a chance to conduct a public opinion poll, so they'll know what to believe. On the one hand, it almost seems that a Palestinian state in September has become an unstoppable train. On the other hand, there are many serious issues standing in the way. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=749 "5-May-11 News -- Palestinians celebrate Fatah-Hamas reconciliation ceremony in Cairo"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110505 5-May-11 World View -- Syrians head off Friday's protests =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110505.head 5-May-11 World View -- Syrians head off Friday's protests =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110505.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110505.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110505.date 5-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110505.txt1 Portugal is promised a 78 billion euro bailout =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110505.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria security forces try to head off Friday's protests" The protests following Friday's midday prayers in Syria have been growing larger every week, even as Syria's government launches bloodier and more brutal attacks on protesters. Security forces are setting up roadblocks in Damascus and other cities to prevent the spread of protests on Friday. <#stdurl http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2011/05/syria-damascus-uprising-students-freedom-human-rights.html "LA Times"#> According to Syrian government-controlled Sana news service, Syria's security forces "have continued today their hunting for armed terrorist groups, an official army source declared Monday evening." The result is that the security forces "have caused satisfaction to the citizens, who started to feel the restoration of security, and serenity to Daraa." <#stdurl http://www.dp-news.com/en/detail.aspx?articleid=82575 "Day Press (Syria)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Portugal is promised a €78 billion bailout" It used to be an "insult" to Portugal to suggest that it might need a bailout, but on Wednesday, Portugal became the third EU country, after Greece and Ireland, to be promised a bailout. The amount is a €78 billion ($116 billion), but the interest rate is being kept secret for now. Interim prime minister José Sócrates said that the bailout was a "good deal," and that Portugal had received "better terms" than Ireland or Greece. Sócrates said that the terms imposed by the IMF wouldn't be painful at all, but a BBC reporter said that Portugal would face huge austerity measures later this year. The bailout still needs approval from the EU and from Portugal's opposition parties. <#stdurl http://www.independent.ie/business/european/portugalrsquos-euro78-billion-bailout-on-lsquobetter-termsrsquo-than-ireland-2636836.html "Irish Independent"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "International Criminal Court will seek war crime charges against Libyans" The chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court announced Wednesday that the ICC will seek the arrest of three individuals for crimes against humanity in Libya. The crimes involve systematic arrests, torture, killings and forced disappearances. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/ICC-to-Seek-Arrests-for-Crimes-Against-Humanity-in-Libya-121274679.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Vietnam: Ethnic Hmong people hold autonomy protest" <#inc ww2010.pic g110504c.gif right "" "Vietnam"#> Thousands of ethnic Hmong people in Vietnam are holding a protest calling for autonomy, in the remote Dien Bien province. The demands of the protesting Hmong - who are mostly Christians - include more religious freedom, better land rights and more autonomy. The BBC report calls it a "rare protest," but Vietnam is still in a generational Awakening era, when protests are expected to increase. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13284122 "BBC"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russian scholars discuss the disintegration of Russia into independent states" With Russia's population continuing to fall, Russian analysts are increasingly considering "Russia’s disintegration into regional principalities, khalifates, republics and confederations." The most disturbing proposals are "the separation of Siberia from European Russia and a split along the Volga-Urals line." The North Caucausus will likely leave as soon as "the river of [aid] money from Moscow runs out." The most likely scenario will be the "Kosovo scenario," with "local referend[a], unilateral declaration[s] of independence, [and] recognition of sovereignty by the key powers, the US, China and the European Union." <#stdurl http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2011/04/window-on-eurasia-regional-paper.html "Paul Goble"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "More political prisoners and more torture in North Korea" Fifteen former inmates and prison guards in North Korean prisons have testified to Amnesty International of horrific torture. Prisons occupy an ever-growing number of vast wilderness sites, and house 200,000 or more prisoners. <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/05/04/north.korea.amnesty/ "CNN"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=749 "5-May-11 News -- Palestinians celebrate Fatah-Hamas reconciliation ceremony in Cairo"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110504b 4-May-11 News -- U.S. sues Deutsche Bank for $1 billion, as the EU investigates antitrust violations =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110504b.head 4-May-11 News -- U.S. sues Deutsche Bank for $1 billion, as the EU investigates antitrust violations =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110504b.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110504b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110504b.date 4-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110504b.txt1 Deutsche Bank's actions make you want to vomit =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110504b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.S. sues Deutsche Bank for $1 billion, as the EU investigates antitrust violations" The federal government sued Deutsche Bank on Tuesday, saying the bank committed fraud and padded its pockets with undeserved income as it repeatedly lied so it could benefit from a government program that insured mortgages, according to <#stdurl http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/money/51744005-79/bank-government-deutsche-fraud.html.csp "AP."#> This comes just five days after the European Commission opened antitrust investigations on 16 major financial institutions, including Deutsche Bank. <#stdurl http://euobserver.com/9/32243 "EU Observer."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110503.gif center "" "First page of complaint"#> As I've been writing for years, the massive fraud that led to the continuing financial crisis occurred at almost every financial and real estate institution in the world. The contempt for ethics and rules that Deutsche Bank, and its subsidiary MortgageIT, showed is typical of what happened in financial institutions around the world. It's worth extracting a few paragraphs from the <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/050311deutschebankcomplaint.pdf "complaint (PDF)"#>:
"1. ... Deutsche Bank and MortgageIT repeatedly lied to be included in a Government program to select mortgages for insurance by the Government. Once in that program, they recklessly selected mortgages that violated program rules in blatant disregard of whether borrowers could make mortgage payments. While Deutsche Bank and MortgageIT profied from the resale of these Government-insured mortgages, thousands of American homeowners have faced faced default and eviction, and the Government has paid hundreds of millions of dollars in insurance claims, with hundreds of millions of dollars more expected to be paid in the future. ... 9. Deutsche Bank and MortgageIT repeatedly lied to HUD to obtain and maintain MortgageIT's Direct Endorsement Lender status. Deutsche Bank and MortgageIT failed to implement the quality control procedures required by HUD, and their violations of HUD rules were egregious. For instance, Deutsche Bank and MortgageIT failed to audit MortgageIT's early payment defaults; Deutsche Bank and MortgageIT failed to dedicate sufficient staff to quality control; MortgageIT repeatedly failed to address dysfunctions in the quality control system, which were reported to upper management; MortgageIT took only the staff member dedicated to auditing FHA-insured mortgages, and reassigned him to increase production instead; and when an ouside auditor provided findings to MortgageIT revealing seroius problems, those findings were literally stuffed in a closet and left unread and unopened. ... 89. Until late 2005, MortgageIT had no personnel to conduct the required quality control reviews for closed FHA-insured loans. 90. In or about 2004, MortgageIT contracted with an outside vendor, Tena Companies, Inc. ("Tena"), to conduct quality control reviews of closed FHA-insured loans. 91. As noted above, those reviews did not include early payment defaults because MortgageIT failed to identify early payment defaults to Tena. 92. Throughout 2004, Tena prepared findings letters detailing underwriting violations it found in FHA-insured mortgages underwritten by MortgageIT. 93. The findings letters included the identification of serious underwriting violations. Among the serious underwriting violations identified in the Tema findings were violations by a MortgageIT underwriter in the MortgageIT Chicago branch. The underwriting violations involved mortgages in the Michigan market, including properties in and around Darborn, Michigan, and certain repeat brokers in that market. 94. No one at MortgageIT read any of the Tena findings letters as they arrived in 2004. 95. Instead, MortgageIT employees stuffed the letters, unopened and unread, in a closet in MortgageIT's Manhattan headquarters. 96. The letters remained unopened until December 2004 or January 2005. 97. In December 2004, MortgageIT hired its first quality control manager. The quality control manager asked to see the Tena findings, but was not provided with any findings. After searching throughout the office, the head of the credit department at MortgageIT showed the quality control manager to a closet. The quality control manager opened the closet and found a series of envelopes, unopened and still sealed, in the closet. 98. The envelopes were disorganized. They contained the unread Tena findings. 99. The quality control manager opened the Tena findings, for the first time, in December 2004 or January 2005. The quality control manager quickly identified serious underwriting violations, which had remained unread over the course of the preceding year. 100. MortgageIT's failure to read the audit reports from its outside vendor prevented MortgageIT from taking appropriate actions to address patterns of ongoing underwriting violations."If you skipped reading the above paragraphs, you ought to go back just to take in the sordid, sleazy attitudes of these people, and the depraved, debauched acts they committed. I've read many stories like this in the past few years, and they make me want to vomit. Deutsche Bank was hardly unique. Fraud was not the exception during the credit and real estate bubble years; it was THE RULE. Fraud was rampant all over the place, and still is. The housing bubble was caused by massive fraud throughout the entire financial and real estate industries, from top to bottom, whether it was homeowners lying on their applications, construction firms colluding with appraisers and brokers to get kickbacks by over-valuing homes, lenders who resold mortgages without checking any of the claims, lenders who adopted predatory lending practices, granting loans to people with no hope of making payments, "financial engineers" creating synthetic securities that could mathematically be proven fraudulent, investment banks that securitized loans based on the assumption that real estate prices would rise forever, ratings firms and monoline insurers that took fat fees to lie about these potentially worthless securities. The only possible explanation for such ubiquitous debauchery is generational. There's no other way that it could have reached every corner of every financial and real estate organization, except in the contemptuous attitudes of greedy, nihilistic Generation-Xers, perpetrating fraud right under the noses of their greedy, incompetent Boomer bosses, who condoned the crimes because they also gain. This lethal combination of Gen-X nihilism, combined with Boomer incompetence is what got us where we are. And it's far from over. The same people are still in the same jobs, adapting to new laws, and figuring out new ways to defraud. Stock brokers fraudulently ignore "one time expenses" when quoting valuations. Banks still have on their books many trillions of dollars of toxic assets that haven't been marked to market, meaning that quarterly statements are still defrauding investors. And bankers are charging usurious 30% interest rates and using the money to pay themselves million dollar bonuses, which they believe that they deserve, since they've been so successful at defrauding the public. The financial crisis has only begun. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=748 "4-May-11 News -- U.S. sues Deutsche Bank for $1 billion, as the EU investigates antitrust violations"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110504 4-May-11 World View -- Greece's bond yields at 25% =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110504.head 4-May-11 World View -- Greece's bond yields at 25% =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110504.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110504.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110504.date 4-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110504.txt1 Syria arrests hundreds, charging 'degrading the state' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110504.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece's bond yields fall from 26% to 24.78%" During the month of April, Greece's 2-year bond yields -- the interest rates demanded by investors to lend money to Greece for two years -- jumped 10 percentage points, to almost 26%. However, bond yields fell to 24.78% on Tuesday, because Greek and EU officials instituted that Greece will NOT restructure its debt (a form of default), even though it's mathematically impossible for Greece to avoid default. (As I wrote in today's <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110504b "main article,"#> the same financial officials who committed massive fraud during the credit and real estate bubbles are still in the same jobs today, committing different kinds of fraud.) An analysis shows that investors will be forced to take a 55% "haircut" (loss of principal), and that yields would have to increase to 45%. <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6cd219e4-75a7-11e0-80d5-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria arrests hundreds, charging 'degrading the state'" The Syrian government's destructive binge is continues, as hundreds of ordinary citizens are being arrested and charged with "degrading the state," which carries a three year prison sentence. In some cities, the police are going from door to door and arresting every male under 40, along with some females. There are thousands of political prisoners. The violence is also affecting the economy, as 8% of Syrian pound deposits in banks have been converted to dollars since the unrest began. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/04/us-syria-idUSLDE73N02P20110504 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Egypt's Hosni Mubarak could be executed" Egypt's ousted president Hosni Mubarak has said that he would die in Egypt, and he may get his wish soon. Egypt's justice minister says that Mubarak could receive a death sentence if he's convicted of "the crime of killing protesters." Mubarak is 82 years old. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hFXGXjmeqea9wZuRkPB6RbFmQ7_g?docId=CNG.8c42f3c8127e494787a7578a617196fb.771 "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Superman renounces U.S. citizenship" <#inc ww2010.pic g110503b.jpg right "" "Action Comics #1 - cover"#> Superman may not be celebrating the death of Osama bin Laden. Superman was a comic book hero appearing in Action Comics in 1933 as a fighter against social injustice and tyranny. He was an important American icon during World War II in the fight against the Nazis. In the 1950s, he was my favorite comic book hero. However, Superman will now renounce his American citizenship in a story line where the President's national security advisor is incensed that Superman appeared in Tehran to non-violently support the protesters demonstrating against the Iranian regime. <#stdurl http://www.comicsalliance.com/2011/04/27/superman-renounces-us-citizenship/ "Comics Alliance"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China's media reflect border disputes with India" On November 19, 2010, an Indian Air Force (IAF) helicopter crashed in India's Arunchal Pradesh, near the border with China, killing 12 people. In Xinhua's government controlled news coverage of the incident, there were differences between the English and Chinese versions. The English version quoted the AFP news coverage, saying that the accident occurred in a Russian-made helicopter in India's "northeast ... border areas." The Chinese version said that the accident occurred "in the so-called 'Arunachal Pradesh,' [which] is located in southern Tibet, China, which has always been Chinese territory. China’s repeated solemn declaration that China never recognized the illegal 'McMahon Line' and the Indian authorities in February 1987 announced the establishment of the so-called 'Arunachal Pradesh.'" <#stdurl http://www.eurasiareview.com/chinese-media-coverage-of-chopper-incidents-in-arunachal-pradesh-analysis-01052011/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+eurasiareview%2FVsnE+%28Eurasia+Review%29 "Bahukutumbi Raman."#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Map of China's 'String of Pearls' strategy" China's strategy plans a "String of Pearls," where each "pearl" is a naval facility running from the South China Sea, across the Indian Ocean, reaching the Mideast and Africa. Here's an interesting map, too big to display here, showing China's String of Pearls. <#stdurl http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/mapImages/4d9dc99a47818.pdf "Washington Institute"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=748 "4-May-11 News -- U.S. sues Deutsche Bank for $1 billion, as the EU investigates antitrust violations"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110503b 3-May-11 News -- Pakistan has embarrassed, schizophrenic reaction to bin Laden killing =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110503b.head 3-May-11 News -- Pakistan has embarrassed, schizophrenic reaction to bin Laden killing =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110503b.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110503b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110503b.date 3-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110503b.txt1 Waterboarding led to killing of bin Laden =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110503b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pakistan has embarrassed, schizophrenic reaction to bin Laden killing" News anchors in Pakistan didn't know what words to use. There are two ways to say "Osama has been killed" in Urdu and Hindi, with one less respectful than the other, and anchors would zigzag back and forth between the two, according to <#stdurl http://www.dawn.com/2011/05/02/gotcha.html "Dawn (Pakistan)."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110502.jpg center "" "Abbottabad, Pakistan - aerial view of of compound (highlighted) where Osama bin Laden was killed"#> This is only one of many examples of schizophrenia that Pakistanis are experiencing, now that Osama bin Laden has been found and killed on Pakistani soil, not far from the nation's capital. Pakistan is a country that almost appears to be disintegrating. Last year's floods flattened and washed away hundreds of villages. Sectarian violence is almost a daily occurrence, with militant Islamist Sunni terror groups attacking mosques and gatherings of Shia, Sufi, and other "apostate" branches of Islam, as well as Pakistan's security forces. Last week, for example, Taliban militants in Karachi perpetrated three bomb attacks targeting Pakistan Navy personnel, killing ten and injuring dozens, according to <#stdurl http://www.dawn.com/2011/04/29/another-attack-on-navy-claims-five-lives.html "Dawn."#> A Taliban spokesman claimed responsibility in a phone call. "Our men carried out this attack and all security forces are our target. They will be attacked everywhere in the country. Our organisation is still strong in cities of Pakistan." On top of this, polls show that Pakistanis are overwhelmingly opposed to American missile strikes from drones, since they blame the Taliban terror attacks on these strikes, and many believe (incorrectly) that the terrorism will stop when the drone attacks stop. But the government is "married" to the U.S. for the duration of the war on terror, and Pakistan must cooperate, including allowing drone strikes, in order to receive badly needed American aid -- about $2 billion a year. So into this mess of tangled pressures comes the news that Osama bin Laden has been killed where he was living in a mansion down the street from a military academy, just a few miles from the capital city Islamabad. The Pakistanis had been insisting for years that Osama bin Laden was not in the heart of Pakistan, that he was either in the mountainous tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, or in Afghanistan itself. So his location was just the first embarrassment. Did Pakistani government officials know that he was there? Certainly a lot of people think so, and some analysts are claiming that bin Laden was actually being kept there under a kind of house arrest by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency. The Pakistanis deny this, and Pakistan's ambassador to the United States points out that Boston gangland figure James J. "Whitey" Bulger has been on FBI's most wanted list since 1999, but the FBI hasn't been able to find him. The <#stdurl http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/05/pakistani-ambassador-america-cant-find-whitey-bulger-so-why-do-you-expect-us-to-locate-bin-laden/238156/ "Atlantic"#> quotes him as saying, "The fact is, Mafia figures manage to do this sort of thing in Brooklyn, and Pakistan is a country that does not have the highly-developed law enforcement capabilities that your country possesses." The next problem is that the attack was performed by American special forces. The Americans didn't inform the Pakistanis until the attack was under way, because the Americans believe that someone in Pakistan's government would have tipped bin Laden off, allowing him to escape. So American forces carried out a military operation on Pakistan's soil near the nation's capital, without notifying Pakistan in advance. Former Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf expressed surprise that bin Laden was near Islamabad, but said that the operation was a "violation of our sovereignty":
"America coming to our territory and taking action is a violation of our sovereignty. Handling and execution of the operation (by US forces) is not correct. The Pakistani government should have been kept in the loop. Foreign troops crossing the border into Pakistan will not be liked by the people of Pakistan. US forces should not have crossed over into Pakistan. ... If there is lack of trust, it is very bad. We are fighting the same enemy."There is indeed lack of trust -- not just between Pakistan and the U.S., but especially between Pakistan and India. After the horrendous terrorist attack on Mumbai on November 26, 2008, India's prime minister Dr. Manmohan Singh directly accused Pakistan of complicity. "There is enough evidence to show that, given the sophistication and military precision of the attack it must have had the support of some official agencies in Pakistan," he said. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e090107 ""India's Prime Minister Singh formally accuses Pakistan re Mumbai terrorist attacks.""#>) When Pakistan was slow to help India with the investigation into the Mumbai attacks, furious Indian officials threatened to go after the Lashkar-e-Toiba terrorist group on Pakistani soil. This would have led to a regional war, but it was nipped in the bud by hard intervention from Condoleezza Rice. One Indian official quoted by the <#stdurl http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Red-faced-Pakistan-claims-role-in-op-but-no-one-is-convinced/articleshow/8148142.cms "Times of India"#> says, "Pakistan stands exposed having harboured the most wanted terrorist in the world. The elimination of terrorist safe havens in Pakistan will now increasingly become an international priority." What's ironic is that the United States has taken action with bin Laden similar to what the Indians wanted to with Lashkar-e-Toiba two years ago. The U.S. got away with it, while the Indians were stopped. Pakistan has so much pressure on it that it always seems about to implode. Now they face new problems, as many U.S. and India officials believe that Pakistan knowlingly harbored Osama bin Laden, considered the most violent terrorist in the world. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Pakistan and India will be re-fighting the war that followed Partition, the 1947 war that following the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent, creating the states of India and Pakistan. Here are some related items: =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Scholars say that burial at sea is against Islamic rules" The United States says that bin Laden received Muslim religious rites and his body was "eased" into the Arabian Sea so that no one can build a shrine on his grave:
"Traditional procedures for Islamic burial were followed. The deceased’s body was washed and then placed in a white sheet. The body was placed in a weighted bag. A military officer read prepared religious remarks which were translated into Arabic by a native speaker. After the words were complete, the body was placed on a prepared flat-board… (and) eased into the sea."But some Muslim scholars say that burial at sea is not permitted by Muslim law. "Islam only accepts burials" at sea unless it is inevitable like for those who drown, he said. <#stdurl http://www.dawn.com/2011/05/03/burials-at-sea-against-islamic-rules-scholars.html "Dawn"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Waterboarding led to killing of bin Laden" The original information that led to finding Osama bin Laden came from Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, who provided crucial information after being subjected to "harsh interrogation tactics" inside CIA prisons according to Poland and Romania. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5ikAZCh0ww4Y1tnn_VhV3j8H5GTEg "AP"#> On Monday evening, representative Peter King (R-NY) appeared on Fox's the O'Reilly Factor, and said that the harsh tactics were waterboarding. <#stdurl http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/General+News/91143/VIDEO%3A-Peter-King-Says-Bin-Laden%27s-Death-Came-From-Waterboarding.html "YWN."#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Cindy Sheehan says that the bin Laden death was faked." According to Cindy Sheehan:
"I am sorry, but if you believe the newest death of OBL, you're stupid. Just think to yourself--they paraded Saddam's dead sons around to prove they were dead--why do you suppose they hastily buried this version of OBL at sea? This lying, murderous Empire can only exist with your brainwashed consent--just put your flags away and THINK!"Later, she added, "It's also easier just to swallow the lies of the Empire like Monica Lewinsky swallowed Clinton's sperm. It works for me." <#stdurl http://adamholland.blogspot.com/2011/05/cindy-sheehan-bin-laden-death-was-faked.html "Adam Holland"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=747 "3-May-11 News -- Pakistan has embarrassed, schizophrenic reaction to bin Laden killing"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110503 3-May-11 World View -- Drifting mines near Misrata =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110503.head 3-May-11 World View -- Drifting mines near Misrata =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110503.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110503.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110503.date 3-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110503.txt1 Marrakesh, Morocco, bombing was not suicide bombing =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110503.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Nato searches for drifting mines near Misrata, Libya" Aid ships are unable to reach port at Misrata in Libya, because Gaddafi forces have planted mines. Nato minesweepers have destroyed two of three mines laid by government forces, but a third drifting mine must be cleared before the aid ship can deliver supplies. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/02/libya-idUSLDE7411YX20110502 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Marrakesh, Morocco, bombing was not suicide bombing" The explosion that killed 15 people in Marrakesh, Morocco, was triggered by a remote control device, not a suicide bomber as previous reports suggested. The perpetrator has not yet been identified, but Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is assumed responsible. The bomb contained nails, ammonium nitrate and a high explosive called TATP that was also used in a series of bombings on the Paris underground system in 1995. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/30/france-morocco-idUSLDE73T02520110430 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Libya: Gaddafi declares war on Italy" In a speech delivered on Saturday on Libyan TV, Muammar Gaddafi called for war with Italy because of Italy's "colonization" attempts. Libya was a colony of Italy from 1911 to 1941. "We are already in a war with Italy since Italians kill our children in 2011 as they did in 1911, that is why I cannot forbid Libyans to defend their lives and carry the military actions on the enemy's territory," Gaddafi said. <#stdurl http://en.rian.ru/world/20110430/163800240.html "Ria Novosti"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russians view Orthodox Church as part of the state government" Most Russians increasingly do not consider the Russian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate as separate and distinct from the Russian state. This acts to the detriment of the Church, since citizens are concluding that Patriarch and the bishops are as dishonest as the politicians are. Thus, they want the Church to have fewer ties to the government. <#stdurl http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2011/04/window-on-eurasia-russians-no-longer.html "Paul Goble"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The Case for UN Reconsideration of the Zimbabwe's 'Liberation Hero' Robert Mugabe" Now that, under UN mandate, international force has been used to confront rutheless dictators Laurent Gbagbo in Ivory Coast and Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, it's time to consider using international force against an even more ruthless dictator, Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe. Mugabe's actions to transform Zimbabwe, the breadbasket of southern Africa, into into a starving disease-ridden country are almost beyond belief. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e081208 ""'Liberation Hero' Robert Mugabe now destroys Zimbabwe with cholera.""#>) Mugabe's neighbors have refused to deal with him because of his stature as an anti-American anti-Western anti-white 'Liberation Hero," even though militias affiliated with Mugabe's party, the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), operate as de facto enforcers of government policies and commit assault, torture, rape, extralegal evictions and executions without fear of punishment. <#stdurl http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/ISN-Insights/Detail?lng=en&ots627=fce62fe0-528d-4884-9cdf-283c282cf0b2&id=128723&contextid734=128723&contextid735=128592&tabid=128592 "International Relations and Security Network (ISN)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Libya: Gaddafi's soldiers given viagra" In the heated United Nations Security Council closed-door debate last week, the Russians and other countries objected that Nato was exceeding the UN mandate in Libya. But US ambassador Susan Rice said that Gaddafi's forces were "issuing viagra to soldiers so that they go out and rape." Similar reports have appeared in British tabloid newspapers. <#stdurl http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10722272 "AFP"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=747 "3-May-11 News -- Pakistan has embarrassed, schizophrenic reaction to bin Laden killing"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110502b 2-May-11 News -- Libya war controversy rages after missile strike on Gaddafi compound =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110502b.head 2-May-11 News -- Libya war controversy rages after missile strike on Gaddafi compound =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110502b.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110502b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110502b.date 2-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110502b.txt1 Senator Lindsey Graham thanks Nato =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110502b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Libya war controversy rages after missile strike on Gaddafi compound" Angry supporters of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi staged revenge attacks on Sunday, burning and looting the U.S., U.K., French, Italian and Qatari embassies in Tripoli on Sunday, according to <#stdurl http://abcnews.go.com/International/libyans-storm-us-embassy-report-gadhafi-son-killed/story?id=13503526 "AP."#> The UN was forced to evacuate its foreign staff from Tripoli, according to the <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/backlash-at-killing-of-gaddafis-son-2277675.html "Independent."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110501b.jpg center "" "Damaged Gaddafi house, after Nato airstrike"#> This comes one day after a Nato air strike on Gaddafi's compound in Tripoli. A Libyan government spokesman said that the air strike killed Muammar Gaddafi's youngest son, Saif al-Arab Gaddafi, and three of the Libyan leader's grandsons. Libyan rebels in Benghazi are saying that they're skeptical that Gaddafi's son is really dead, according to <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jtoidqHc3sCnqODD3GAv1hOtWFdg?docId=CNG.5531a5fdacd2913af0d710c9a6a041f8.a1 "AFP."#> And a Nato spokesman says that the reports of the deaths of Gaddafi's son and grandchildren are unconfirmed, according to <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/news/mideast-in-turmoil/nato-britain-no-confirmation-gadhafi-s-son-died-in-tripoli-strike-1.359158 "Haaretz."#> "We targeted a military command and control building with a precision strike. It was not targeted against any individual. It was a military target, clearly linked to the Gadhafi's regime's systematic attacks on the civilian population." =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Controversy: A violation of international war?" The controversy is arising because it appears that Nato targeted Gaddafi's compound in order to assassinate Gaddafi, which would be a violation of U.S. and international law, and would be beyond the U.N. resolution that mandated the Libyan operation. A Russian MP, Konstantin Kosachev, is quoted by <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/01/libya-russia-nato-idUSLDE74002M20110501 "Reuters"#> as saying that the strike was proof that the coalition was not protecting civilians. "(It is) a clear confirmation of the indiscriminate use of force by the anti-Libyan coalition," he said. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Senator Lindsey Graham thanks Nato" However, a leading Republican senator, Lindsey Graham, defended the action on <#stdurl http://fns.blogs.foxnews.com/2011/05/01/graham-gadhafi-not-legitimate-leader/ "Fox News Sunday"#>:
"Well, I think this is a good move by NATO to go after the source of the problem. If you want to protect the Libyan people, go after his inner circle. Do two things -- support the rebels, give them better air cover, get American aircraft back in the game to diminish Gadhafi's military, but also put pressure in Tripoli. In my view, wherever Gadhafi goes, he is the legitimate military target. He's the command and control source. He's not the legitimate leader of Libya. And the way to get to this to end is to go after the people around him and his support network. In my view, he is not a foreign leader. In my view, he's a murderer. He's killing his own people. He's acting outside of international law. He's bombing civilians. He is not the legitimate leader of Libya. ... I support what Nato did. This is a good use of the mandate. This is the way to end this. Thousands of people are subject to dying the longer this takes. No one in the world is going to regret Gaddafi being replaced, no matter how you do it. So I want to thank Nato for expanding the scope of these operations, and I wish we'd acted earlier, but we're now on the right track, supporting the rebels and going after the inner circle. Everything around him needs to be subject to attack."This continuing deterioration of the Libyan crisis comes at a time when military leaders of neighboring countries -- Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Algeria -- are on alert, according to <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jIcAiBVAFbjemuwia2lRezwXWmSQ?docId=CNG.279588144c0fd58d312ca2e921687d3b.741 "AFP."#> An officer from Mali is quoted as saying, "The situation in Libya is of great concern. There is a risk of destabilising the entire region." He indicated that the instability is providing opportunities for Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the group that's assumed responsible for the cafe bombing in Marrakesh, Morocco, a couple of days ago. "Because of the Libyan crisis, the security situation in the Sahel has deteriorated, so it is necessary to be careful. We are all on alert and we keep each other informed," he said. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=746 "2-May-11 News -- Libya war controversy rages after missile strike on Gaddafi compound"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110502 2-May-11 World View -- Osama bin Laden is dead =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110502.head 2-May-11 World View -- Osama bin Laden is dead =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110502.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110502.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110502.date 2-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110502.txt1 Syria's security forces arrest hundreds, shell Daraa =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110502.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Osama bin Laden is dead" <#inc ww2010.pic g110501d.jpg right "" "Osama bin Laden (file photo)"#> Late Sunday evening, President Barack Obama announced that Osama bin Laden was killed a week ago by a U.S. bomb delivered manually, not by a drone, based on actionable US intelligence. DNA tests have confirmed that it's really OBL. Bin Laden was killed in a mansion in Abbottabad, Pakistan, near Islamabad. American bases around the world have been told to be on high alert for revenge attacks. The death of OBL is an important symbolic act at this time, but it may not have much effect on the operations in Afghanistan. OBL's death by American attack in Pakistan will have repercussions in relations between the U.S. and Pakistan, and will cause a backlash among Pakistanis who object to U.S. missile strikes in Pakistan. Furthermore, the fact that OBL was killed near the Pakistani capital of Islamabad will raise suspicions that Pakistan's intelligence group suspected or knew where he was. Hundreds of joyful Washingtonians and students gathered outside the north lawn of the White House, cheering, chanting "USA!" and singing the Star Spangled Banner. (FNC/CNN) =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria's security forces arrest hundreds, shell Daraa" Thousands of Syrians continued pro-democracy protests on Sunday. Security forces arrested hundreds, and shelled the city of Daraa into submission with a tank-backed force. In the central city of Homs, thousands marched chanting "downfall of the regime." Signs of discontent are emerging in the army, a reaction to being forced to fire on and kill peaceful Syrian protesters. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/01/us-syria-idUSLDE73N02P20110501 "Reuters"#> As the situation in Syria appears to be going out of control, Arab leaders are being forced to break their silence. The Arab League was instrumental in facilitating the international military intervention in Libya, but has issued only a general statement saying peaceful protesters in Arab states deserved "support, not bullets." Arab officials are afraid of facing similar uprisings in their own countries. But a former Arab official says, "Everyone is concerned about Syria but everyone is also worried about the day after. Still, things are moving at a pace that is faster than anyone imagined and governments are making decisions hour by hour, not even day by day." <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5a6abdc8-7422-11e0-b788-00144feabdc0.html "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel halts transfer of tax funds to Palestinian Authority" Reacting to the reconciliation of Hamas and Fatah, and plans for a meeting in Cairo later this week to form a unity government, Israel has decided to temporarily halt the transfer of millions of dollars of tax revenue to the Palestinian Authority (the governing side of Fatah). Israel collects $80-100 million each month in taxes at border crossings, and turns the money over to the PA. The PA warned that it will not be able to pay the salaries of its civil services, and said that it as "an assault on the Palestinian economy." <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=218728 "Jerusalem Post."#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "European Union considers reinstating border controls" <#inc ww2010.pic g110501c.jpg right "" "Migrants travel from Italy to UK (Sun)"#> The flow of thousands of Tunisian and Libyan migrants to Italy, where they've received travel visas for travel throughout the European Union, is causing the EU to consider reinstating border controls that were abandoned in 1995 by the Schengen agreement. Many migrants speak French and wish to reach France, and so France is particularly interested in border controls. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/trustlaw/news/eu-executive-says-could-reinstate-border-controls/ "Reuters"#> Many migrants hope to reach the UK, where they believe that they'll be able to live on rich benefits without working. One is quoted as saying, "There is nothing for us in France. I sleep outside. I hear the Government in Britain gives money. I want to go to England. I will be rich. I will receive benefits." <#stdurl http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/3551833/Hordes-of-Arab-migrants-huddle-in-Paris-camps-poised-to-flood-into-Britain-to-live-on-state-benefits.html?OTC-RSS&ATTR=News "The Sun (UK)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Right-wing extremists in Hungary target Roma Gypsies" Last year's promises by Hungary's government for "a notable increase in public security" have gone unfulfilled, as the police and judiciary have lost control over the growing right-extremist citizen groups and paramilitary-style gangs. They've staged repeated anti-Roma marches against "Gypsy criminality," and police have stood aside as vigilante groups have attacked. Roma activist Aladár Horváth says that the country has been gripped by a "civil war-like atmosphere" and "rampant racism." <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,759586,00.html "Der Spiegel"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=746 "2-May-11 News -- Libya war controversy rages after missile strike on Gaddafi compound"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110501b 1-May-11 News -- Yemen's president Saleh reneges on agreement to step down =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110501b.head 1-May-11 News -- Yemen's president Saleh reneges on agreement to step down =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110501b.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110501b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110501b.date 1-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110501b.txt1 The move may be political theatre =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110501b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Yemen's president Saleh reneges on agreement to step down" In a rebuff to the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), led by Saudi Arabia, Yemen's president Ali Abdullah Saleh has refused to sign a peace agreement that the GCC had brokered. <#inc ww2010.pic g110430a.jpg center "" "Ali Abdullah Saleh"#> After "Arab uprisings" began in January, first in Tunisia and then in Egypt, Yemen became the third country to face tens of thousands of pro-democracy protesters demanding that the country's leader step down. Since then, over 145 protesters have been killed, making the demands that Saleh step down even louder. The GCC members, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, were becoming increasingly concerned that Yemen's government would collapse completely, leaving the country in a state of tribal chaos. So the GCC ministers worked with Saleh and with the opposition leaders to come up with a transition plan that would allow Saleh to step down peacefully. Saleh had informed the GCC a week ago that he would sign the plan, according to <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Yemens-President-Criticizes-Former-Lawmakers-Who-Joined-Opposition-120540379.html "VOA."#> The plan called for Saleh to step down with a month, after 32 years of rule, in return for a grant of immunity from prosecution. The opposition coalition had accepted the deal as well, although some protesters objected to allowing Saleh escape prosecution. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Political theatre?" Saleh was supposed to sign the agreement on Saturday, but found a cute way of backing out, according to <#stdurl http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/04/30/147351.html "Al-Arabiya."#> He said he would sign the agreement in his role as head of his political party, but not in his role as "president of the republic." In effect, he's reneging on his promise to step down. Many officials in the region believe that Saleh's turnabout may be temporary political theatre, according to the article, and that he's trying to secure more concessions from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Saleh is the beneficiary of a great deal of aid from oil-rich GCC countries, and other GCC leaders are unlikely to permit Saleh to humiliate them for long. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=745 "1-May-11 News -- Yemen's president Saleh reneges on agreement to step down"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110501 1-May-11 World View -- Saif al-Arab Gaddafi killed =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110501.head 1-May-11 World View -- Saif al-Arab Gaddafi killed by Nato strike =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110501.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110501.loc ww2010.weblog.log1105 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110501.date 1-May-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110501.txt1 Is Iran's president Ahmadinejad about to resign? =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110501.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Muammar Gaddafi's youngest son, Saif al-Arab, reportedly killed by Nato strike" <#inc ww2010.pic g110430b.jpg right "" "Saif al-Arab Gaddafi"#> A Libyan government spokesman said that a Nato air strike killed Muammar Gaddafi's youngest son, Saif al-Arab Gaddafi, and three of the Libyan leader's grandsons. Muammar Gaddafi and his wife were in the same house at the time, but they were unhurt. According to a Libyan government spokesman, "This was a direct operation to assassinate the leader of this country. This is not permitted by international law. It is not permitted by any moral code or principle. What we have now is the law of the jungle. We think now it is clear to everyone that what is happening in Libya has nothing to do with the protection of civilians." <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/04/2011430224755721620.html "Al-Jazeera."#> Some news reports have confused Saif al-Arab with Saif al-Islam, who has been a very visible international presence since the Libyan conflict began. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110311 ""11-Mar-11 News -- Saif Gaddafi declares all out war on Libya opposition.""#>) I've read that Saif al-Islam means "sword of Islam," so I assume that Saif al-Arab means "sword of Arabia." Saif al-Arab is the least known of the sons. Until recently, he lived in Munich where he reportedly attended university. He has a reputation as a party animal and was investigated in 2008, but never charged, in an arms smuggling case. In February, Germany revoked his residency status and he will not be allowed back into the country. <#stdurl http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/03/04/who-are-muammar-gaddafis-children/ "National Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Is Iran's president Ahmadinejad about to resign?" Rumors are spreading that Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is about to resign over bitter differences with the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. <#stdurl http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/Iran-president-to-resign-over-spat/articleshow/8131476.cms "Asian News International"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Climate change conference has little success raising large sums of money" Negotiators at the latest United Nations summit on climate change have been unsuccessful at raising large sums of money, purportedly to help poor nations adapt to climate change. The principal disagreement is that rich donor countries demand "cumbersome oversight," which the poor recipients refuse to tolerate. The next climate change conference is scheduled for December in Durban, South Africa. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/after-delays-little-progress-for-un-climate-fund/ "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Al-Jazeera rebukes columnist for favorable Israel comparison" In his April 27 column in the UAE-based <#stdurl http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/outdoing-israel-in-brutality-1.799514 "Gulf News,"#> Faisal Al Qasim wrote, "Zionist crimes pale in comparison with the manner in which some Arab regimes have cracked down on their own people for merely seeking change." He noted that "Israelis are very much less brutal" to Palestinians than some Arab regimes are to their own citizens. Because of this column, Al-Qasim was criticized for his column, and may have been forced to resign from his position at al-Jazeera.<#stdurl http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5236.htm "Memri"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Al-Jazeera English vs Al-Jazeera Arabic - two messages" Al-Jazeera, headquartered in Qatar, broadcasts different messages in its English and Arabic editions. Al-Jazeera English has thoroughly covered the uprisings across the Mideast, but Al-Jazeera Arabic overreports events in Libya and Yemen, countries unfriendly to Qatar, while reducing coverage of uprisings in Bahrain and Syria. (As I've noted in the past, al-Jazeera is completely in the tank for Hamas, and is relentlessly hostile to the Palestinian Authority.) <#stdurl http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3355 "Washington Institute"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Egypt proceeds to open Rafah crossing to Gaza" Egypt is rebuking Israel for objecting to Egypt's decision to permanently open the Rafah crossing to Gaza. This will essentially break Israel's blockade of Gaza, allowing people and goods to flow freely. Israeli officials fear that this will permit more weapons to be smuggled into Gaza. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=218563 "Jerusalem Post"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=745 "1-May-11 News -- Yemen's president Saleh reneges on agreement to step down"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110430b 30-Apr-11 News -- Libyan war spreads briefly into Tunisia =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110430b.head 30-Apr-11 News -- Libyan war spreads briefly into Tunisia =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110430b.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110430b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110430b.date 30-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110430b.txt1 Russia says that a ground war is near =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110430b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Libyan war spreads briefly into Tunisia" Tunisia's interim government issued a sharp rebuke to the Libyan regime of Muammar Gaddafi on Friday, after Gaddafi's forces crossed the border into Tunisia in pursuit of Libyan rebels, according to the <#stdurl http://www.startribune.com/business/120950304.html "AP."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110429.jpg center "" "In Dehiba, people gather around overturned car belonging to Libyan army (CS Monitor)"#> On Friday, 15 Libyan military vehicles, carrying troops armed with anti-aircraft guns and rocket launchers, crossed the Libyan border and reached the Tunisian town of in Dehiba (Dhuheiba) where many Libyan rebels were staying, with the intention of being out of reach of the Libyan army. When the military vehicles were spotted, angry Dehiba civilians set upon the Gaddafi troops, creating a "chaotic situation," according to the article. Finally the Tunisian army stopped "several members of Gadhafi's brigades, regrouping them and leading them back to Libyan territory," the Tunisian Defense Ministry said. The population of Dehiba "feels great solidarity" with the Libyan rebels, and they "detest Qaddafi's soldiers, they have a horror of them," according to a Dehiba doctor quoted by <#stdurl http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0429/Libyan-fighting-spills-into-Tunisia "CS Monitor."#> The Tunisian Foreign Ministry summoned Libya's ambassador to convey its "most vigorous protests" for the "serious violations" at the Dehiba border area Thursday and Friday, a ministry statement said. Tunisia itself is going through a regime change, and in fact was the first to experience an "Arab uprising" in January. Tunisia has pointedly remained neutral in the Libyan civil war, which is consistent with the fact that Tunisia is in a generational Awakening era. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110124 ""24-Jan-11 News -- Police join the protesters in Tunisia.""#>) Thus, there's very little or no chance that these border clashes will spiral into full scale war between the two countries. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Stalemate continues" The town of Misrata, in the western portion of Libya near Tripoli, has become the focus of fighting in the last week, as the war continues to settle into a stalemate. Gaddafi's forces have been shelling Misrata, and on Friday threatened to prevent humanitarian aid to be delivered to Misrata by sea, according to the <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/libya-threatens-ships-dlivering-aid-to-misurata/2011/04/29/AFlm01GF_story.html "Washington Post."#> Gaddafi's forces are being accused of laying mines in Misrata's port. This is apparently a war crime, although shelling Misrata is not a war crime, just war. Meanwhile Russia, whose strategy is to keep the stalemate in Libya going on as long as possible, in order to keep Nato forces pinned down, continued to apply pressure. Referring to a Nato plan to name a point of contact between Nato and the Libyan rebels in Benghazi, Viktor Litovkin, executive editor-in-chief of Russia's Independent Military Observer newspaper is certain about NATO`s true reason for naming a point contact in Benghazi, according to <#stdurl http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/04/29/49652127.html "Voice of Russia:"#>
"I see it as a step towards ground operation, no matter who will lead it. All these aides and experts are expected not just to teach the insurgents to fight Gaddafi but also explore Libyan territories to know where to dispatch troops and place weaponry."The article points out that Nato has no clear goal in Libya, and that the Nato-led campaign in Libya is "a war without a goal." (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=744 "30-Apr-11 News -- Libyan war spreads briefly into Tunisia"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110430 30-Apr-11 World View -- Sanctions on Syria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110430.head 30-Apr-11 World View -- Sanctions on Syria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110430.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110430.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110430.date 30-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110430.txt1 Iran seeks to renew diplomatic relations with Egypt =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110430.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.S. slaps sanctions on three Syrian officials" The United States slapped sanctions on Syria's intelligence agency and two relatives of President Bashar al-Assad on Friday. The sanctions include asset freezes and bans on U.S. business dealings. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/us-slaps-new-sanctions-on-syria-over-crackdown/ "Reuters"#> European Union member states, meeting in Brussels, gave preliminary approval to European sanctions on Libya. When formalized, these would apply an arms embargo and a ban on equipment used for repression such as body armour, explosives or vehicles that carry weapons. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/eu-reaches-initial-deal-on-syria-sanctions/ "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iran's president Ahmadinejad in dispute with supreme leader" A senior cleric in Iran is warning President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad not to overestimate his power. "The president should know that the majority vote for him was not absolute but conditional on his obedience towards the orders by the supreme leadership." Like America in the 1960s and 1970s, Iran is in a generational Awakening era that triggered massive student-led riots beginning in 1969. Just as this "generation gap" split apart America's government at that time, finally leading to the resignation of President Richard Nixon, Iran's government appears to be experiencing the same kind of turmoil. <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/iran-cleric-warns-ahmadinejad-not-to-overestimate-his-power-1.358882 "Haaretz"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iran seeks to renew diplomatic relations with Egypt" Iran's foreign minister has announced its desire to renew diplomatic relations with Egypt, and is now waiting for the Egyptians to take a similar decisions. However, some officials in Egypt are hesitant, for fear that renewing relations with Iran might isolate Egypt from the other Arab countries; undermine its leading position in the region; compromise its sovereignty, as a result of Iranian interference; lead to "Shi'itization" and thus to sectarian schism; and compromise Egypt's interests in the Gulf. With the last concern in mind, Egyptian officials hurried to assure the Gulf states that Cairo had no intention of forming a strategic alliance with Tehran. <#stdurl http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5223.htm "Memri"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel threatens 'arsenal of measures' in retaliation for Hamas-Fatah pact" Israel has threatened to use an "arsenal of measures" against the Palestinian territories, in retaliation for the plans for Fatah and Hamas to reconcile and form a unity government. Measures include withholding $800 million in taxes, and lifting the VIP status of Palestinian leaders, thus subjecting them to humiliating border checks. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/palestinianauthority/8481114/Israel-threatens-arsenal-of-measures-in-wake-of-Fatah-Hamas-pact.html "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Major Taliban attacks expected in Afghanistan" Senior Nato military officials in Afghanistan said that they are expecting Taliban-led insurgents to launch a series of major attacks across the country over the next week. This surge in attacks occurs every year around May 1. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/exclusive-major-taliban-attacks-expected-in-afghanistan/ "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pakistan tests a nuclear-capable missile" Pakistan's military announced that it successful tested a nuclear-capable cruise missle with a range of over 200 miles. <#stdurl http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/Pakistan-tests-Hatf-8-cruise-missile/articleshow/8115020.cms "Times of India"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia bans petroleum exports" As Russia grapples with fuel shortages in several regions, the government banned exports of refined petroleum products on Thursday. <#stdurl http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/petroleum-exports-banned-as-fuel-crisis-deepens/436034.html "Moscow Times"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=744 "30-Apr-11 News -- Libyan war spreads briefly into Tunisia"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110429b 29-Apr-11 News -- Hamas declares Quartet 'obsolete', while West mulls aid cutoff to Palestinians =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110429b.head 29-Apr-11 News -- Hamas declares Quartet 'obsolete', while West mulls aid cutoff to Palestinians =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110429b.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110429b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110429b.date 29-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110429b.txt1 Skepticism over Fatah-Hamas reconciliation =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110429b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Hamas declares Quartet 'obsolete', while West mulls aid cutoff to Palestinians" Wednesday's announcement of a Fatah-Hamas reconciliation, and plans for a unity government, has thrown international Mideast politics into disarray -- or perhaps I should say "further disarray," because it's been in disarray for a long time. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110428b ""28-Apr-11 News -- Palestinian factions announce surprise 'reconciliation' on path to statehood.""#>) <#inc ww2010.pic g110428a.jpg center "" "Palestinian Authority officials Mahmoud Abbas and Saeb Erekat"#> The West has been dealing with the Palestinian Authority (the governing body associated with Fatah) for years, and many countries list Hamas as a terrorist organization. Once the unity government is formed, these countries will then have to deal with a named terrorist organization, or not deal with the Palestinians at all. Thus, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle released a statement saying, "Hamas is not a dialogue partner for us because we don’t work with organizations that fight with violence against Israel’s right to exist." (<#stdurl http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4062033,00.html "Ynet"#>) The situation is even more complicated in the United States, where it's against the law to provide aid to organizations that have been designated as terrorist. The State Department was asked what would happen to the $400 million in funding promised for this year, and an e-mail message received by <#stdurl http://af.reuters.com/article/egyptNews/idAFN2828181320110428 "Reuters,"#> did not directly answer the question:
"The current Palestinian government remains in place and our assistance programs continue. If a new Palestinian government is formed, we will assess it based on its policies at that time and will determine the implications for our assistance based on U.S. law."In order for Hamas to be acceptable to the U.S. and other Western nations, it has to agree to the conditions set down by the Middle East Quartet (United Nations, Russian Federation, United States, European Union) several years ago: recognize the state of Israel; renounce violence; and honor past Israeli-Palestinian agreements. Hamas has said that it will not agree to any of these conditions. A month ago, <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/abbas-willing-to-give-up-u-s-aid-for-unity-with-hamas-1.352372 "Haaretz"#> was quoting Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas's adviser as saying, "The Palestinians need American money, but if they use it as a way of pressuring us, we are ready to relinquish that aid." On Wednesday, a Hamas spoken appearing on Al-Jazeera, quoted by <#stdurl http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5232.htm "Memri,"#> went even farther, saying that the Quartet and its terms and conditions are obsolete:
"We know that one of the main issues that was in dispute was the fact that every government must have a political platform, and that if it has no political platform, the platform of the president becomes that of the Palestinian government. The Palestinian political platform was in dispute, due to the terms set by the Quartet. "Now the Quartet has become obsolete, along with its terms, and it is not taken too much into consideration. The Quartet and its terms were not mentioned in these [reconciliation negotiations], even once."However, other Palestinian officials appear to be scrambling to try to find a political formula that will keep Western aid and support continuing to the unity government. Mahmoud Abbas told reporters on Thursday that he would be the one conducting peace negotiations with Israel, according to <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/abbas-fatah-will-continue-to-handle-mideast-peace-talks-1.358620 "Haaretz."#> I interpreted his remarks as trying to say that "it's a unity government, but really it's just me, so you can keep the aid flowing." But senior Hamas figure Mahmoud Al-Zahhar seemed to be saying something different, in a statement to Al-Jazeera quoted by <#stdurl http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5232.htm "Memri:"#>
"I should make it clear that the political platforms [of Fatah and Hamas] will remain different. The question is how to manage the platforms so that they do not conflict with one another... Our perspective is entirely different from that of Fatah. Fatah believes in negotiations, while we believe that negotiations with the Israeli enemy are in vain. We believe in armed struggle, in addition to responsible governing, as well as making the government's resources available to the resistance."This statement would appear to make aid to the unity government impossible, since it explicitly says that "government's resources [will be made] available to the resistance." This appears to be a direct statement that aid to the unity government will go to the militants attacking Israel. Hamas has a lot of supporters, especially in South America and in parts of Europe. In the media, Al-Jazeera is completely in the tank for Hamas. If the U.S. cuts off aids to the Palestinians, then perhaps these other supporters will fill the gap by providing their own money, thus allowing the Palestinians to eat their cake and have it too. However, many countries like to talk, talk, talk, especially when they can verbally attack the United States, but when it comes to putting their money where their mouth is, they aren't as ardent. The common wisdom is that Fatah and Hamas will do everything possible to paper over differences, in order to get the United Nations General Assembly to create a Palestinian State by international mandate in September. But as Hamas's Mahmoud Al-Zahhar said above, "Our perspective is entirely different from that of Fatah." The prospect of losing American aid and Western support, and having to depend on the likes of Venezuela, is going to make it very difficult to paper over the very great differences between the two factions. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=743 "29-Apr-11 News -- Hamas declares Quartet 'obsolete', while West mulls aid cutoff to Palestinians"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110429 29-Apr-11 World View -- Explosion in Marrakesh, Morocco =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110429.head 29-Apr-11 World View -- Explosion in Marrakesh, Morocco =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110429.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110429.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110429.date 29-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110429.txt1 U.S. GDP growth falls sharply in Q1 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110429.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "A terrorist explosion in Marrakesh, Morocco, kills 14 people" <#inc ww2010.pic g110428b.jpg right "" "Marrakesh, Morocco, bombing"#> An explosion, the suspected work of a suicide bomber, took the lives of 14 people in a popular cafe in a cultural heritage site that draws a million tourists a year. The explosion took place in Marrakesh, a tourist city 220 miles south of the capital. 14 people were killed, making this the deadliest attack since 33 people were killed by 12 suicide bombers in Casablanca in 2003. No one has yet taken credit, but Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is suspected. <#stdurl http://www.france24.com/en/20110429-marrakesh-terrorist-blast-kills-14 "Agence France-Presse"#> AQIM is another terrorist group, like al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) using the "Al-Qaeda" brand name. (See my 2007 article, <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e071214 ""Algeria bombings are from new generation of young al-Qaeda terrorists.""#>) Formerly called the "Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC)," it changed its name to "Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb" (Maghreb is the Arabic word for North Africa), and began much more visible terrorist activities, beginning with <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e070413 "terrorist bombings in Algiers and Casablanca"#> on April of 2007. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syrian protesters in Daraa may have anti-tank guns" According to some reports, some protesters in Daraa, Syria, are now carrying anti-tank weapons, indicating that the country may be approaching full scale war, as has occurred in Libya. <#stdurl http://debka.com/article/20876/ "Debka"#> A new "Day of Rage" is planned for Friday, after midday prayers, probably the biggest ever. With the estimated death toll already exceeding 500, much more bloodshed is expected on Friday. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=218329 "Jerusalem Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.S. GDP growth falls sharply in Q1" U.S. GDP growth fell to 1.8%annual rate in the first quarter of 2011, after a 3.1% fourth quarter rise. Economists blamed the slower growth on the weather, as well as on food and gas prices. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/28/us-usa-economy-instant-idUSTRE73R3FF20110428 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Jimmy Carter blames South Korea for starvation in North Korea" South Korean officials are bristling at comments made by Jimmy Carter as he and "Elders" travel to North Korea. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110426b ""26-Apr-11 News -- Jimmy Carter's 'Elders' visit N. Korea, as S. Korea deploys multiple rocket launcher systems.""#>) Carter said that the food crisis in North Korea was due to the lack of aid being donated, seemingly referring to South Korea, which stopped large-scale food aid to the North last May, after the North Korean attack on the South Korean ship Cheonan. <#stdurl http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2935405 "JoongAng"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=743 "29-Apr-11 News -- Hamas declares Quartet 'obsolete', while West mulls aid cutoff to Palestinians"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110428b 28-Apr-11 News -- Palestinian factions announce surprise 'reconciliation' on path to statehood =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110428b.head 28-Apr-11 News -- Palestinian factions announce surprise 'reconciliation' on path to statehood =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110428b.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110428b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110428b.date 28-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110428b.txt1 U.S. may end relations with Palestinians if unity government includes Hamas =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110428b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Palestinian factions announce surprise 'reconciliation' on path to statehood" Following several weeks of secret Egypt-brokered meetings in Cairo and Damascus, Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas announced on Wednesday that they have "reconciled" and that they will form a unity government, according to the <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=218114 "Jerusalem Post."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110427a.jpg center "" "Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on March 18"#> Hamas is the organization that has been governing the Gaza Strip since it defeated Fatah (the military wing of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank) in a 2007 war. However, Hamas is losing control of Gaza, largely because of its own internal complexity, with various wings promoting anything from war with Israel to total peace and coexistence with Israel. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110416b ""16-Apr-11 News -- Killing of Italian activist exposes splits among Gaza militants.""#>) Fatah negotiator Azzam al-Ahmed said that the two sides have reached agreement on all points of contention, including the make-up of the unity government, fixing a date for presidential and parliamentary elections and restructuring the PLO. Also, the two parties agreed to release each others jailed prisoners. Hamas' leaders has opposed reconciliation with Fatah since the 2007 war, because they feared losing control of Gaza after they'd won a war to get it. But according to an analysis by <#stdurl http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4061557,00.html "YNet,"#> Egypt may have made some concessions to Hamas to convince them to take the deal. Speculatively, the concession might have been to open the border between Gaza and Egypt at the Rafah crossing, so that people and goods can flow freely back and forth. Fatah and Hamas are pushing the reconciliation process because it's an essential step in preparing for a hoped-for vote by the United Nations General Assembly in September to recognize a Palestinian state unilaterally. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israeli response" Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had already scheduled trips to European capitals soon, followed by an address to the U.S. Congress, to lobby against recognition of a Palestinian state, according to <#stdurl http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/143712 "Israel National News."#> Netanyahu, along with everyone in the West, was evidently caught by surprise by Wednesday's announcement, and he issued the following <#stdurl http://www.pmo.gov.il/PMOEng/Communication/Spokesman/2011/04/spokepeace270411.htm "statement:"#>
"The Palestinian Authority needs to choose between peace with Israel and peace with Hamas. Peace with both is impossible because Hamas aspires to destroy the State of Israel and says so openly. It fires missiles at our cities; it fires anti-tank rockets at our children. I think that the very idea of this reconciliation shows the weakness of the Palestinian Authority and causes one to wonder if Hamas will seize control of Judea and Samaria like it seized control of the Gaza Strip. I hope that the Palestinian Authority chooses correctly, i.e. that it chooses peace with Israel. The choice is in its hands."Israeli and United States officials on Wednesday did not directly answer questions about whether they would continue to talk to a unity government that contained Hamas, or whether the U.S. will continue to provide billions of dollars in aid to the Palestinian Authority, when unified with Hamas. Several years ago, the Middle East Quartet (United Nations, Russian Federation, United States, European Union) set the following conditions for recognition of Hamas as a legitimate government:
CASE: We had a sharp decline [in housing prices] after the peak in 2006, but that ended with the housing tax credit [in 2009]. Then we had a pretty good rebound at that point, and that's now turned around and it's almost back to where it was. So in a sense , we've already had a second dip [in prices], and I think it's in large measure due to this incredible decline in households. If you look at the housing as a market as a whole, and you look at household formations as the demand side -- new households being formed, and coming to the market to the market with income -- and on the other side of the market, housing production. Housing production has been zero basically for the last 33 months. Housing starts are down around 500,000 -- we're not building any new houses. But the vacancy rates are still going up, despite the fact that there's very little production. We've always been able to count on new households coming into the market, and they're not coming now. SHILLER: There are numerous other factors that I see. The unemployment rate is at 8.8%; long term unemployment rate is 4%, which is quite high; it's hard to get financing; lenders say that they've raised the credit score that's required to get a mortgage; people are just worried, and holding. The household formation is one symptom of that. CASE: [For things to change,] I think that households have to come back, and it may be that price has to go down more to bring them back. If you look at housing today, relative to what it was 3 years ago -- first of all, prices are down 30% -- no one imagined they'd go down that far. Rates are at all time record low. So affordability is terrific relative to the last four years, but people aren't buying, because the sentiment has changed completely -- they know there's risk now.This analysis doesn't even count the "shadow inventory" of 7 or 8 million homes that are in foreclosure or close to them. (See <#hreftext ww2010.i.housing091221 ""'Shadow inventory' of unsold homes continues to grow.""#>) The last part of this interview really emphasizes the generational aspects of the housing crash. People have been burned and continue to be burned, and this will make them risk-averse for the rest of their lives. The net of this is that housing prices are still falling, and will continue to fall for many years. Housing prices today are around their year 2000 price levels; my own estimate is that they'll fall to their levels in the late 1980s. Meanwhile, China's housing bubble a year ago was large enough so that there's enough commercial real estate under construction to give every man, woman and child in the 1.4 billion population country a 5x5 cubicle. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e100205 ""5-Feb-10 News - China's nationalism and real estate bubble grow.""#>) There are similar figures for residential housing. The housing bubble continues to grow in China, where the price-to-income ratio has now reached a stratospheric 27:1, according to <#stdurl http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2011/04/26/chinas-unaffordable-housing-to-drive-consumer-boom/ "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>, putting homes out of reach for all but the wealthiest people. It's almost impossible to get analysts to concede that China has a serious housing bubble, just as it was impossible in 2006 to get any mainstream economists or analysts to recognize a housing bubble in America. But the article quotes one Hong Kong analyst who agrees that China's housing is in a huge bubble, but according to him, that's a GOOD thing. The reasoning is that since middle class Chinese can't afford a house, they'll have money left over that they can spend on more consumer goods, which is good for China. There seems to be just no end to the number and absurdity of excuses that mainstream analysts can provide to explain away bubbles -- until the bubble crashes, and then it's too late. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=741 "27-Apr-11 News -- US housing crash accelerates, while China's housing bubble continues to grow"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110427 27-Apr-11 World View -- Eurozone debt worsens =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110427.head 27-Apr-11 World View -- Eurozone debt worsens =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110427.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110427.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110427.date 27-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110427.txt1 Russia offers 'mediation services' in the Libya Crisis =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110427.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Eurozone government debt continues to be much worse than expected" Just as today's US housing data is much worse than expected (see today's main article), euro zone government debt is much worse than expected, reaching new record levels. Debt in all 16 euro zone countries rose last year, lifting the bloc's average debt to 85.1% of GDP, up from 79.3% in 2009. Greece's debt ballooned to 142.8% of GDP, and Ireland's debt surged 30.6 percentage points to 96.2% of GDP. Greece and the Europeans are still stalling on the question of restructuring Greece's debt, which seems to become more and more of a crisis each hour. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-26/euro-area-governments-debt-reaches-record-85-1-of-gdp-as-crisis-festers.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria poised to join the United Nations Human Rights Council" The bloody assaults and massacres by Syria's government on its own people continue on a daily basis. However, Syria is now on target to become a member of the United Nations Human Rights Council if, as is quite possible, the U.N. General Assembly votes to put Syria there next month. <#stdurl http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2011/0426/Amid-brutal-crackdown-Syria-poised-to-join-UN-Human-Rights-Council "CS Monitor"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia offers 'mediation services' in the Libya Crisis" Pursuant to its strategy of bogging the U.S. and the West in a protracted stalemate situation in Libya, Russia is offering "mediation services." Russia is hurrying to do this out of fear that the West will escalate the military action and bring it to an decisive end. By offering to mediate, they can guarantee that no decisive action will be taken, and the military intervention will continue indefinitely. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37847&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=f5c8168c2379510a1bd6951f4918dcf5 "Jamestown"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Kuwait gives Libyan rebels $181 million" Kuwait has given Libya's opposition leadership $181 million to help pay state employees who have not been paid in months. <#stdurl http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/kuwait-gives-libya-181-million-to-pay-employees "The National (UAE)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Canada embarrassed by jailbreak in Kandahar, Afghanistan, prison" Monday's jailbreak at the Kandahar prison in Afghanistan is particularly embarrassing to the Canadians because they spent at least $4 million upgrading the prison and training its staff after a previous jailbreak by the Taliban in 2008 that freed more than 800 inmates. Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said, "Obviously we’re disappointed with this particular failure there. But, you know, this is a long learning experience and we’ll continue to plug away and continue to work with Afghan authorities to make progress on these issues." <#stdurl http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/canada-will-continue-to-plug-away-despite-afghan-jailbreak-harper/article1999402/ "Globe and Mail"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Real estate bubble near Buckingham Palace?" <#inc ww2010.pic g110426b.jpg right "" "Temporary TV Studios"#> The three-story green buildings you see are brand new temporary buildings. They've just been built across the street from Buckingham Palace, housing 22 glass-fronted TV studios. They're painted green so that they blend in with the trees. They blend in well, don't they? No word on how much it costs to rent one. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i9zzbVlAl6gAf5Ky_ikVMM1C648g?docId=CNG.b7f8883a534f988792a4fc532c3e061e.131 "AFP"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "California's SETI Institutes abandons search for extraterrestrial life" Lacking the money to pay its operating expenses, Mountain View's SETI (Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence) Institute is shutting down its array of radio dishes that scan the skies for signals from extraterrestrial civilizations. <#stdurl http://www.mercurynews.com/science/ci_17926565?source=most_viewed "Mercury News"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=741 "27-Apr-11 News -- US housing crash accelerates, while China's housing bubble continues to grow"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110426b 26-Apr-11 News -- Jimmy Carter's 'Elders' visit N. Korea, as S. Korea deploys multiple rocket launcher systems =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110426b.head 26-Apr-11 News -- Jimmy Carter's 'Elders' visit N. Korea, as S. Korea deploys multiple rocket launcher systems =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110426b.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110426b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110426b.date 26-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110426b.txt1 North Koreans may be preparing new provocation =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110426b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Jimmy Carter's 'Elders' visit N. Korea, as S. Korea deploys multiple rocket launcher systems" The South Korean military has deployed multiple rocket launcher systems on two northwestern islands that are near the maritime boundary with North Korea, according to unnamed government sources of the <#stdurl http://www.koreaherald.com/national/Detail.jsp?newsMLId=20110425000733 "Korea Herald."#> North Korea launched an artillery attack on one of the islands, Yeonpyeong Island, last November, killing four South Koreans including two civilians. <#inc ww2010.pic g110425a.jpg center "" "L-to-R: Mary Robinson, Jimmy Carter, Dr. Gro Brundtland and Martti Ahtisaari -- Carter and 'The Elders'"#> In addition, the military plans to establish a special military command in June, which is dedicated to protecting the border islands from possible North Korean provocations including amphibious infiltrations by its special warfare troops. If the North Koreans follow their usual pattern, then they'll issue a few days worth of hysterical accusations that the South Koreans and the Americans are warmongers, while saying that their own artillery attack on Yeonpyeong Island, as well as the sinking of the warship Cheonan last May, were fully justified. In fact, and unnamed North Korean force is quoting a top army official as saying, "A tense situation is being created on the Korean Peninsula, where nobody knows when a war could break out," according to <#stdurl http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/04/25/2011042501050.html "Chosun."#> This follows reports that leader Kim Jong-il has recently visited "Building No. 3," in order to plan future provocations with the agency in charge of armed provocations against the South. This comes at a time when former President Jimmy Carter is leading a delegation of "The Elders" to North Korea, to encourage Pyongyang to engage in a meaningful dialogue with Seoul and to address the country’s food shortage, according to <#stdurl http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2935352 "JoongAng."#>
"At a time when official dialogue with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea appears to be at a standstill, we aim to see how we may be of assistance in reducing tensions and help the parties address key issues including denuclearization."Another "Elder," former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari, added, "Clearly there is a great level of mistrust and suspicion between North and South Korea. But the stakes are too high to allow this standoff to continue." It's possible that the starving North Koreans might make some minor concession in order to food aid restarted, after it was discontinued last year because of the Cheonan sinking. But beyond that, this effort is so completely unrealistic that it's hard to believe that anyone would seriously consider it, but it illustrates how deeply the attitudes of World War II survivors different from attitudes of those growing up after the war. In addition to Jimmy Carter (born 1924), the members of "The Elders" are former President of Ireland Mary Robinson (born 1944), former Prime Minister of Norway Dr. Gro Brundtland (born 1939), and former President of Finland Martti Ahtisaari (born 1937). The Elders group was formed four years ago by Nelson Mandela (born 1918). These people all lived through the World War II years of horror, and they've devoted their lives to [[the futile task of]] doing everything possible to keep anything like that from happening again. The Elders group are firmly in the "peace through conciliation" camp for keeping anything like that from happening again, while Presidents like John Kennedy and Ronald Reagan were much more in the "peace through strength" camp. By contrast, the Boomers and Gen-Xers know absolutely nothing of the horrors of WW II, and so they are much more confrontational, and much more willing to cross red lines that risk war, than the GI and Silent generations that lived through the war. This is also true of the North and South Koreans. Even though Kim Jong-il (born 1942) was a WW II survivor, almost all the middle and high level managers and commanders that report to him were born after WW II. The same kind of thing is true in South Korea, China, Japan, and other countries. In this context, the South's permanent deployment of multiple rocket launcher systems has to be regarded as one more step in a confrontational direction. The North Korean army official who said, "A tense situation is being created on the Korean Peninsula, where nobody knows when a war could break out" is probably correct, but since a war will probably break out because of one of North Korea's provocations, they may know more than we do about when a war could break out. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=740 "26-Apr-11 News -- Jimmy Carter's 'Elders' visit N. Korea, as S. Korea deploys multiple rocket launcher systems"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110426 26-Apr-11 World View -- Kandahar prison escape 'disaster' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110426.head 26-Apr-11 World View -- Kandahar prison escape 'disaster' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110426.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110426.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110426.date 26-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110426.txt1 Kandahar prison escape a 'disaster' for Afghanistan war plans =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110426.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Kandahar prison escape a 'disaster' for Afghanistan war plans" <#inc ww2010.pic g110425c.jpg right "" "Escaped Taliban Militants (from Taliban website)"#> Taliban Mujahideen militants, "with the help of Allah," broke into the supposedly secure Kandahar prison on early Monday morning and freed 541 Taliban prisoners, including 106 commanders. They accomplished this by renting a house near the prison and then digging a 360 meter tunnel to the prison over a 5 month period. It took four hours for the prisoners to flee through the tunnel, and no prison guards noticed anything going on during that period. <#stdurl http://nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/International/25-Apr-2011/Kandahar-prison-break-541-prisoners-freed-Taliban "Nation (Pakistan) from Taliban website"#> Afghan President Hamid Karzai is calling the prison escape a "disaster," especially because it frees some of the most dangerous Taliban commanders that have been captured in the last year. It raises doubts about Karzai's ability to govern Afghanistan, and puts into question plans to begin coalition withdrawal later this year. <#stdurl http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-South-Central/2011/0425/Taliban-tunnel-frees-Kandahar-prisoners-in-blow-to-NATO-and-Afghan-forces "CS Monitor"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria's army smashes into protesters, killing dozens" <#inc ww2010.pic g110425b.jpg right "" "Amateur video -- Syrian soldiers take up position in Daraa on Monday"#> In an overwhelming coordinated assault on Daraa and other cities, thousands of Syria's army troops used tanks and live gunfire to attack unarmed protesters, killing at least 18. President Barack Obama is said to be considering financial sanctions on Syria, but so far there are no plans for Libya-style military intervention, even though the massacres in Daraa are now at the level that the "humanitarian" mission into Libya were intended to avoid. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/in-transition/Witnesses-Say-5-Killed-in-Syria-Security-Crackdown--120590904.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Arab media dismayed that Western, not Arab, planes are in Libya" Arab media continues to express dismay that it is Western, not Arab, air power that is assisting the rebels. Arab governments point out that NATO nations have more equipment and experience with modern warfare. But Arab critics point out that Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states have over a thousand modern jet fighters between them, and plenty of smart bombs. Here is an opportunity to use all this stuff, in a good cause. But many Arabs insist that Arab air forces aren't ready, and some even mention what many fear; that Arab pilots will reveal that they really are not ready. Arabs don't want to risk Iran finding that out. <#stdurl http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/libya/20110425.aspx "Strategy Page"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Australians fear war between China and the U.S." A new poll shows that Australians believe that the United States and China are on a course for war, and that their military pact with the U.S. would force Australia into the conflict. The poll also shows that they dislike China's policy of buying up Australia's farms, mines and real estate, and overwhelmingly believe that China could invade Australia in the future to secure land and resources. <#stdurl http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/asiapacific/news/article_1634975.php/Australians-fear-China-s-growing-power-poll-shows "DPA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Rise of nationalist right-wing parties in Europe puts entire euro project in danger" Nationalist right-wing populist parties are gaining votes in Finland, Denmark, Netherlands, Sweden and other European countries. In France, Marine Le Pen, daughter of National Front founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, is growing in popularity, and she is strongly opposed to the euro currency and the European Union. At the very least, these trends are putting the entire program to rescue the euro in jeopardy, because it has to be approved unanimously by the entire European Union. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,758883,00.html#ref=nlint "Spiegel"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=740 "26-Apr-11 News -- Jimmy Carter's 'Elders' visit N. Korea, as S. Korea deploys multiple rocket launcher systems"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110425b 25-Apr-11 News -- Skyrocketing food and fuel prices spur inflation fears =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110425b.head 25-Apr-11 News -- Skyrocketing food and fuel prices spur inflation fears =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110425b.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110425b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110425b.date 25-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110425b.txt1 The inflation versus deflation debate =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110425b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Skyrocketing food and fuel prices spur inflation fears" Global wheat prices are "on fire," according to <#stdurl http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/markets/newsfeeditem.aspx?id=138501958159810 "Barrons,"#> because of a relentless drought in Europe, Oklahoma and Texas. Wheat futures are now approaching $10 per bushel, up from around $4 just a few years ago, and the fear is that wheat prices will go even higher as the May harvest approaches. <#inc ww2010.pic g110424a.jpg center "" "Trees that were once mostly submerged are now high and dry (Texas Tribune)"#> All of Texas is extremely dry, and since the beginning of October, barely one-tenth of an inch of rain has fallen on Midland, according to the <#stdurl http://www.texastribune.org/texas-environmental-news/water-supply/drought-plagued-midland-texas-is-running-out-of/ "Texas Tribune."#> It's hoped that the La Niña weather pattern that has contributed to the severe drought will be weak or gone by summer, but that will be too late for the next wheat harvest. Europe is experiencing the worst drought for a century, with almost no rainfall in April, according to <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hH5_kom_7dpPZ0vyldBg3EPkY9jg "AFP."#> The wheat harvest is at risk, and there's fear of widespread, devastating wild fires. <#inc ww2010.pic g110424b.png center "" "Oil and food prices, 2000 to present (Seeking Alpha)"#> The world food price index is now larger than it was during the food crisis of 2008, when there were widespread food riots, especially in developing countries. However, the price of rice, a staple in many developing countries, has remained fairly stable, and so developing countries are not being as badly hit this time, according to an analysis by Carnegie’s International Economics Program appearing in <#stdurl http://seekingalpha.com/article/265070-the-surge-in-food-prices-what-s-different-this-time "Seeking Alpha."#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Inflation versus Deflation" Many politicians and mainstream analysts are pointing to the rise in oil and food prices as proof that the dollar is weakening and (hyper)inflation is setting in, even though the consumer price index (CPI) has remained low. The price rise in these commodities does not necessarily indicate inflation, especially since wages have remained flat. With wages flat, high food/fuel prices simply mean that consumers have less money to spend on other goods, pushing those prices down, canceling the rising prices on food and fuel. As I wrote in 2004 (see <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e040717 ""CPI data points to deflation trend""#>), a Law of Mean Reversion analysis on the CPI indicates that it will fall. I still expect the CPI to fall 30% in three years after the real financial crisis occurs, just as it rose 30% in three years from 1977-80. The inflation versus deflation debated has been extremely animated in the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=12&start=270#p8482 "Generational Dynamics forum"#> for several years. It's worthwhile repeating here a few recent postings. Member "richard5za," an investor in South Africa, expects a great deal of inflation in the U.S. dollar. He said that investors would soon begin to "flee from the dollar." I asked him what investors would flee the dollar into. He wrote,
"You would flee the dollar into what is called "inflation hedges" as we did in the 70s with pounds and rands etc to protect the value of our money. That was a period of little economic growth and quite high inflation, which came to be called stagflation. Real estate is a favourite inflation hedge especially that in prime positions; when all is settled at the end of the economic abberation, whether that is 5, 10 or 15 years, its still worth what it was in real terms. Zimbabwe had massive inflation, but using google go onto a website selling houses in Harare and you will see respectable dollar prices for the houses. The value has been retained for the owners across the period of inflation devastation. Gold is another inflation hedge but can be risky; for instance in the early eighties when it was clear that the inflationary period was over, the gold price dropped sharply. Also some commodities and precious stones e.g. diamonds. ... Rare antiques are another favourite - there's a world shortage and they'll get their value back in times of stability."Richard explained further by telling some of his personal history:
"I finished all my studies in 1968 and secured employment with a successful British multinational group. In 1971 the "big boss" said to me "Boy, do you own a house?" I said "No, Sir" He said "Well, I think inflation may increase and I am strongly advising you to buy a house. If you need to borrow money for the deposit then the company will help you." "Thank you very much, Sir." So I bought a middle class house on 1000 sq m of ground. In 1973 the "big boss" said to me "Richard (I had graduated from boy to Richard) I am very worried about inflation and I am organising for all management the opportunity to buy good quality antiques as an inflation hedge." I bought the most magnificient 1695 long case clock (grandfather) It was a London maker and the case was exquisite. it was a business matter with business disciplines so when I sold it in 1987 for 12 times what I paid I told myself to be very grateful for the 14 years of wonderful stewardship."Richard says that he made a great deal of money investing further in real estate, and also made money in stocks in the 1980s. He concluded,
"I was now very busy with my career, having become CEO, and my funds were being handled by a finacial advisor. In 2006 I retired (for the first time) and took over my personal finacial management again, and in 2007 I sold all my stocks except for 5% which I put into gold and gold miners. That amount has done well and doubled. So what I am trying to say is that it doesn't matter what the economic circumstances may be, you can flee what ever currency you want, put your money into hedges. commodities, property, whatever is the right decision for the circumstances."From the point of view of Generational Dynamics analysis, this 1970s inflation hedging strategy wouldn't work today. I explained by telling my own 1970s story. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The other side of the 1970s" When I was working for Digital Equipment Corp. (may it rest in peace) in the 1970s, there was a girl who had an entry level job as a computer operator. After she'd been there a couple of years, she left DEC and went to Data General (RIP) with a good salary increase. After a few months, she left DG and went to Wang (RIP), with a good salary increase. After a few more months, she left Wang and came back to DEC. The net effect is that in the space of a year she had changed jobs three times and almost doubled her salary at DEC. There were lots of stories of that kind in the 1970s. It was well known that anyone with good skills and willing to work hard could change jobs and get a good salary increase. I don't agree with the "stagflation" characterization of the 1970s. There was plenty of inflation, and it's true that the stock market fell during the 1970s (which I believe is why people use the word 'stagnation'), but the economy was extremely vibrant in the 1970s. Everyone knew that people who had bought IBM or DEC or Xerox stocks had made out like bandits (to use a phrase I heard at the time) -- not because speculators had created a stock market bubble, but because these companies had scored some real technological achievements. In the 1970s, almost every company was still "young". Almost every business had gone bankrupt in the 1930s, and the ones that hadn't had to totally restructure. By the 1970s, all of these businesses were at their peak of robustness and productivity. New products and technologies were coming out all the time. Skilled workers were in high demand, and even unskilled workers had no trouble getting a job. There were plenty of job openings, and not enough workers to fill them. As a result, salaries increased -- based on merit, not based on social skills -- resulting in inflation. The other thing about the 1970s is that everyone was worried about a new stock market crash. You could walk into a bookstore and find several books on "How to survive the next Great Depression." Now today, all of those indicators are flipped on their heads. Each job opening gets hundreds of applicants. If you change jobs, then you have to take a salary cut. Jobs in the last decade have fled overseas, seeking low salaries rather than high skills. Today's businesses are no longer "young." This is something I haven't written about lately, but I used to call it the "crusty old bureaucracy" effect, using a phrase that I'd seen in a description of some company. Lots of employees do little or nothing but sit around. Salaries are increased based on longevity only, with little relationship to skills. There's little innovation going on, with something like the iPad providing a rare exception. Today we have REAL stagnation. In the 1970s, people worried about a new Great Depression, because that's what they remembered from the 1930s. Today, people are worried about a new Great Inflation, because that's what they remember from the 1970s. A new Great Depression couldn't have occurred in the 1970s because the wrong generational constellation was in place, and a new Great Inflation can't occur today for the same reason. Everything is in a bubble. Stocks have had historically high valuations since 1995. Real estate has been in a bubble internationally since 1995, and has only partially recovered. Gold's long-trend trend value is about $500/oz, but now it's in a bubble at three times its trend value. So now assume a hypothetical scenario where there is 10% inflation, and you follow Richard's hedging strategy. You're talking about assets that are already in a bubble, and by the time that 10% inflation is reached (as if that's possible), the bubble would be much bigger. With huge amounts of liquidity flowing into gold, for example, the price would go from 3 times trend to 10 times trend. And this is where you run into the logical contradiction. The inflation hedge assets are already in a bubble, the bubble would be growing even larger, investors would realize that these hedges are way overpriced, and many would stay in the "safe" dollar rather than risk a bursting bubble. Of course you can always invest in real estate or gold, knowing that its price will eventually go up. But you could have invested in stocks in 1929, and you would have made money by the mid-1950s. So now, to close the circle, the businesses with a "crusty old bureaucries" are going to be destroyed or forced to restructure, like similar businesses in the 1930s. With layoffs increasing and salaries decreasing, there's no chance of anything close to 10% inflation. Investors will not flee the dollar. From the point of view of generational theory, what we're going through now is a generational financial crisis. At it's core, a generational crisis is based on widespread abuse of credit and securitization -- tulip certificates in Tulipomania (1637), South Sea shares in the 1721 South Sea bubble, "assignats" (credit based on lands confiscated from the clergy) in the bankruptcy of the French Monarchy in 1789, railway shares in the Panic of 1857, and stock shares and foreign bonds in 1929. Today we still have tens of trillions of dollars in toxic assets, in the form of CDOs, CDSs, and other synthetic securities. So you can't have a generational financial crisis that leads to inflation. A generational crisis, at its core, is based on widespread abuse of credit, creating a huge bubble. When the bubble bursts, there must be deflation. It can't happen any other way, as far as I know. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=739 "25-Apr-11 News -- Skyrocketing food and fuel prices spur inflation fears"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110425 25-Apr-11 World View -- Northern Ireland Bombmaking =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110425.head 25-Apr-11 World View -- Northern Ireland Bombmaking =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110425.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110425.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110425.date 25-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110425.txt1 Sen. Lindsey Graham recommends strong U.S. military action in Libya =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110425.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "N. Ireland security forces find caches of bombmaking equipment" Security forces in Northern Ireland have found three caches of weapons and bombmaking equipment in two days as police on both sides of the Irish border remain on high alert over a renewed dissident republican terror campaign. This comes as republicans commemorate the anniversary of the 1916 Rising against British Rule. <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/apr/24/northern-ireland-caches-bombmaking-equipment "Guardian"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Sen. Lindsey Graham recommends strong U.S. military action in Libya" Appearing on TV Sunday morning, Sen. Lindsey Graham said:
"The military's strategy of taking U.S. air assets out of NATO I think was a big mistake. ... So my recommendation to NATO and the administration is to cut the head of the snake off, go to Tripoli, start bombing Gadhafi's inner circle, their compounds, their military headquarters in Tripoli. The way to get Gadhafi to leave is have his inner circle break and turn on him. And that's going to take a sustained effort through an air campaign. I think the focus should now be to cut the head of the snake off. That's the quickest way to end this. ... Let's get this guy gone and the way to get him out of Libya is to go after him militarily through the air. You don't need ground troops to do that."<#stdurl http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1104/24/sotu.01.html "CNN"#> =// =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Nato missiles strike Gaddafi compound in Tripoli, Libya" Two missiles struck Muammar Gaddafi's compound early on Monday, badly damaging the buildings, and temporarily putting three television stations off the air. The blasts are the biggest to hit Tripoli so far. It's not known if there were casualties. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13184594 "BBC"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria's anti-government uprising creates dilemma for Iran" When the Arab uprisings occurred in Tunisia and Egypt, Iran framed them as an "Islamic awakening," a renew of the Iran's own 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, the rise of a new "Islamic Middle East," and a great blow to the U.S. However, the uprising in Syria is a problem, since Syria is a strategic ally. Iran first blamed the Syria uprising on Israel and the U.S.; next they blamed it on Saudi Arabia and al-Jazeera; next it was the fault of Lebanon's prime minister Saad Hariri. Tehran is helping Syria deal with the uprising, and officials believe they must do so to avert the rise of anti-Iranian sentiment in the Arab region. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37834&tx_ttnews[backPid]=61&cHash=97c133b69d620482529c3429a114ffd0 "Jamestown"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Iraqi Shia want Saudis to withdraw from Bahrain" Like Bahrain, Iraq before 2003 has a Shia majority population that was government by an oppressive Sunni ruling class. Since Saddam Hussein was toppled in 2003, the Shia majority has taken power in Iraq, and Baghdad has uneasy relations with its Sunni neighbors. The Shia majority in Iraq is increasingly sympathetic with the Shia uprising in Bahrain, and hundreds of Shia Iraqs rallied in Baghdad on Saturday to demand the immediate withdrawl of Saudi troops from Bahrain. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/iraqi-shiites-want-saudis-to-withdraw-from-bahrain/ "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "King of Bahrain declines to attend Royal Wedding" <#inc ww2010.pic g110424c.jpg center "" "Royal Wedding seating plan"#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110424d.jpg right "" "Bahrain's Prince Salman bin Hamad Al-Khalifa"#> Bahrain's Prince Salman bin Hamad Al-Khalifa declined his invitation next weekend's royal wedding in London, after public criticism because of Bahrain's violent crackdown on peaceful anti-government protesters. This comes after the Cambodian King Norodom Sihamoni declined to attend, saying that he had more important things to do. <#stdurl http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1380145/Another-snub-Royal-Wedding-Crown-Prince-Bahrain-refuses-attend-maybe-theres-seat-Brown-Blair.html?ito=feeds-newsxml "Daily Mail"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Imran Khan urges Pakistan to deal openly with US drone strikes" Imran Khan, former cricket superstar and now a politician, led a sit-in over the weekend in Peshawar, blocking the major road used by Western forces to deliver supplies to land-locked Afghanistan. Khan is leading the political opposition to U.S. drone strikes. "If the government supports drone strikes, it should come clean and say so. If, on the other hand, it genuinely opposes them, then it should order the Pakistan Air Force to shoot them down." <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/imran-khan-urges-pakistan-to-speak-out-over-us-drone-strikes-2274448.html "Independent"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Cambodia and Thailand renew border clashes" It's been a while since the February border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110217 ""17-Feb-11 News -- Thailand vs Cambodia border clash damages ancient Hindu temple.""#>) But now the clashes have begun again have begun again, killing 10 shoulders and forcing thousands of civilians to evacuate the area. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/Cambodia-Thailand-Continue-Border-Clashes-120569219.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Turkey's citizens increasingly commemorate Armenian massacre" Turkey's citizens are increasingly willing to acknowledge that the killing of over a million Armenians during World War I was genocidal. Some are commemorating the start, when hundreds of Armenian professions in Istanbul were rounded up and sent to their deaths on April 24, 1915. Turkey has been under a great deal of international pressure to acknowledge the killings as genocide, and it's become a sensitive issue in the negotiations for Turkey to join the European Union. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hxZANcpXOyPmmi3Is5HEzcsyzYNg?docId=a58c2c96c84048c088ed536a9cefa214 "AP"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=739 "25-Apr-11 News -- Skyrocketing food and fuel prices spur inflation fears"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110424b 24-Apr-11 News -- In Easter TV Q&A, Pope asks Iraqi Christians not to emigrate =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110424b.head 24-Apr-11 News -- In Easter TV Q&A, Pope asks Iraqi Christians not to emigrate =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110424b.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110424b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110424b.date 24-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110424b.txt1 Iraqi history is full of migrations. =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110424b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "In Easter TV Q&A, Pope asks Iraqi Christians not to emigrate" In an event apparently designed to bring the Vatican into the 21st century, Pope Benedict XVI answered questions from Roman Catholic bloggers and Facebook users last week, according to the <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/religion/the-pope/8468913/What-the-Pope-was-asked-during-his-historic-QandA-session.html "Telegraph."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110423a.jpg center "" "Pope Benedict XVI answering questions from Facebook users (Telegraph)"#> During the Q&A, a group of Christian students in Iraq told the Pope: “We Christians in Baghdad are persecuted like Jesus," and they asked for advice on emigration. The Pope urged Christians in Iraq "to resist the temptation to emigrate, which is very understandable in the conditions they are living in." In fact, thousands of Christians have been emigrating from Iraq, to escape violence such as last October's massacre at a Our Lady of Salvation Church in Baghdad. As reported by <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/11/01/us-iraq-violence-idUSTRE69U1YE20101101 "Reuters,"#> "Fifty-two hostages and police were killed when an attempt by Iraqi security forces to free more than 100 Catholics held in a Baghdad church by al Qaeda-linked gunmen turned into a bloodbath." According to the <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c550b90a-6d13-11e0-83fe-00144feab49a.html "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>, most Christians blame such as the fault of the Americans and British, because of the Iraq war:
"We are in a new era of persecution of Christians," says Rifa’t Bader, a Jordanian Catholic priest whose congregation is now mainly made up of refugees from jihadist savagery in Iraq. "We are victims of things we are not responsible for, whether the Israeli occupation [of Palestinian land] or American policy in the Middle East, especially [the occupation of] Iraq." Iraq is a case apart. Following the Anglo-American invasion of 2003, indigenous Assyrian Christians, mostly Chaldean, have endured a backlash that has reduced their numbers from close to 1m to about 400,000. One refugee in Amman, a 66-year-old chemistry professor who gives his name as Abu Sinan, says: "In my country, 1,400 years of co-existence and common endeavour with Muslims disintegrated in just five years." To Arab Christians around the region, this was a tragedy foretold. Riah Abu el-Assal, a Palestinian and former Anglican bishop of Jerusalem, says one month before the invasion he personally warned Tony Blair, British prime minister of the time, that "you will be responsible for emptying Iraq, the homeland of Abraham, of Christians." After almost 2,000 years, Iraqi Christians now openly contemplate extinction. Some of their prelates even counsel flight.I'm always bemused by this sort of stuff, because it has absolutely no basis in history. Is it really true that, as Abu Sinan say, "In my country, 1,400 years of co-existence and common endeavour with Muslims disintegrated in just five years"? =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "History of Iraq" When doing a Generational Dynamics analysis of something like this, a good starting place to look for answers to questions like these is to look back at a similar generational era. Iraq's last generational Crisis war was the Iran/Iraq war that climaxed in 1988, so Iraq is in a generational Awakening era today. So let's go back to the Awakening era that followed Iraq's previous crisis war, the Great Iraqi Revolution of 1920. Here's a description from the <#stdurl http://lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/iqtoc.html#iq0020 "Library of Congress"#> history of Iraq that describes what happened in the 1930s and 1940s, with regard to the Assyrian Christians:
"On October 13, 1932, Iraq became a sovereign state, and it was admitted to the League of Nations. Iraq still was beset by a complex web of social, economic, ethnic, religious, and ideological conflicts, all of which retarded the process of state formation. The declaration of statehood and the imposition of fixed boundaries triggered an intense competition for power in the new entity. Sunnis and Shias, cities and tribes, shaykhs and tribesmen, Assyrians and Kurds, pan-Arabists and Iraqi nationalists--all fought vigorously for places in the emerging state structure. ... From the start, the relationship of the Iraqi government with the Assyrians was openly hostile. Britain had resettled 20,000 Assyrians in northern Iraq around Zakhu and Dahuk after Turkey violently quelled a British-inspired Assyrian rebellion in 1918. As a result, approximately three-fourths of the Assyrians who had sided with the British during World War I now found themselves citizens of Iraq. The Assyrians found this situation both objectionable and dangerous. Thousands of Assyrians had been incorporated into the Iraqi Levies, a British-paid and British-officered force separate from the regular Iraqi army. They had been encouraged by the British to consider themselves superior to the majority of Arab Iraqis by virtue of their profession of Christianity. The British also had used them for retaliatory operations against the Kurds, in whose lands most of the Assyrians had settled. Pro-British, they had been apprehensive of Iraqi independence. The Assyrians had hoped to form a nation-state in a region of their own. When no unoccupied area sufficiently large could be found, the Assyrians continued to insist that, at the very least, their patriarch, the Mar Shamun, be given some temporal authority. This demand was flatly refused by both the British and the Iraqis."And so, what Abu Sinan said about 1400 years of peaceful coexistence isn't really true. Actually, it bears no resemblance to the truth whatsoever. Actually, what appears in Financial Times is complete crap. Today's Iraqis are repeating the same sorts of things that their parents and grandparents told them about, and are exhibiting the same sort of venom and xenophobia that they learned as children. By the way, this is one of those rare years when Western Easter and Orthodox Easter coincide. Happy Easter everyone! (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=738 "24-Apr-11 News -- In Easter TV Q&A, Pope asks Iraqi Christians not to emigrate"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110424 24-Apr-11 World View -- Reenacting Jesus' crucifixion =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110424.head 24-Apr-11 World View -- Reenacting Jesus' crucifixion =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110424.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110424.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110424.date 24-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110424.txt1 Both sides in Libya conflict are being supplied with weapons =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110424.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Christians in Philippines re-enact Jesus's crucifixion in Easter ritual" If you have a weak stomach, then you may wish to skip this one. On Good Friday, nearly two dozen Filipinos were nailed to crosses, with five-inch nails through their hands, in what they see as an extreme display of devotion to Jesus. One person quoted in the article says that because of his sacrifice and devotion, he hopes the Lord will "grant my wish to make me win big in 'jueteng' [lottery] this year." <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/trustlaw/news/filipinos-re-enact-jesuss-crucifixion-in-easter-ritual/ "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria's security forces shoot mourners at funerals for previous victims" <#inc ww2010.pic g110423c.gif right "" "Syria hot spots (BBC)"#> Friday's huge street protests in Syria led to over 90 killings from security forces using live ammunition and teargas on the protesters. Funerals were held for the victims on Saturday, and dozens more people were killed when security forces fired on the mourners during the funerals. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13175677 "BBC"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Both sides in Libya conflict are being supplied with weapons" While the U.S., Britain, France, Italy and Qatar are supplying arms and military equipment to the rebels in Libya, China, Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Serbia are supplying military hardware to the pro-Gaddafi forces. <#stdurl http://debka.com/article/20862/ "Debka"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Yemen accepts Gulf Cooperation Council peace plan" Representatives of the government of Yemen president Ali Abdullah Saleh, as well as representatives of opposition parties, all say that they've agreed to a peace proposal that was presented to them on Thursday by the six nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), led by Saudi Arabia. President Saleh will step down within 30 days, and in exchange, he, his family and his senior aides will be granted immunity from prosecution. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Yemens-President-Criticizes-Former-Lawmakers-Who-Joined-Opposition-120540379.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "European nations are split over UN recognition of Palestinian state" Europe is emerging as a major political battleground over the plan for United Nations unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state in September. So far, France has come out strongly in favor of recognition, while Germany opposes it. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=217680 "Jerusalem Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "India patents 1,300 yoga moves" <#inc ww2010.pic g110423b.jpg right "" "Yoga moves"#> Hindu gurus and some 200 scientists in India have examined ancient texts and compiled a list of 1,300 yoga moves and poses. India plans to patent the yoga moves, to prevent yoga teachers in the U.S. and Europe from patenting them on their own. <#stdurl http://en.rian.ru/world/20110421/163630520.html "Ria Novosti"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pakistani experts respond to American concerns about Pakistani nuclear weapons" The U.S. State Department frequently expresses concern over likely threats to Pakistani nuclear assets from militant groups. But according to a report prepared by the Pakistanis, "Pakistan has improved the technique of safeguarding its nuclear installations in the past five years so much so that Pakistan's command and control system [of its nuclear weapons] is now better than that of the U.S.." <#stdurl http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5217.htm "Memri"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Former IRA militants in Ireland step up attacks on police officers" Former Irish Republican Army (IRA) militants in Ireland are stepping up terrorist attacks against police officers, and officials are fearful that they'll continue. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/nirish-police-step-up-security-fear-more-killing/ "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.S. State Dept. updates travel warning for Mexico" On Friday, the U.S. State Dept. updated its travel warning for Mexico to include parts of five additional states. <#stdurl http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/tw/tw_5440.html "U.S. State Dept."#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=738 "24-Apr-11 News -- In Easter TV Q&A, Pope asks Iraqi Christians not to emigrate"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110423b 23-Apr-11 News -- Sri Lanka has deep split with U.N. on war crimes report =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110423b.head 23-Apr-11 News -- Sri Lanka has deep split with U.N. on war crimes report =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110423b.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110423b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110423b.date 23-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110423b.txt1 The Sri Lanka civil war was similar to other crisis wars =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110423b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Sri Lanka has deep split with U.N. on war crimes report" Next week, the United Nations will release a report accusing both sides in the Sri Lanka civil war of war crimes. The report is threatening to cause a breach between Sri Lanka's government and the U.N. <#inc ww2010.pic sri2.gif center "" "Areas of conflict in Sri Lanka civil war (Economist)"#> The report says that the Tamil Tigers recruited children to its fighting forces, held civilians as human shields, used them as forced labor, and exposed them to danger by firing heavy weapons from nearby positions, according to the <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/21/sri-lanka-un-war-crimes-report "Guardian."#> It says that the government launched full-scale shellings of no-fire zones, including hospitals and food distribution lines. The Sri Lanka civil war presented a valuable opportunity for me and Generational Dynamics, because I was able to track it and report on it, as it grew from low-level violence into a full-scale generational crisis war that finally climaxed in May, 2009, with the surrender of the Tamil Tigers. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e090517 ""Tamil Tigers surrender, ending the Sri Lanka crisis civil war.""#>) From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Sri Lanka war followed a familiar pattern for a civil war in a country in a generational Crisis era. This war was fought between two ancient races: The Sinhalese (Buddhist) and the Tamils (Hindu). WW II was a crisis war for India and for Ceylon, the former name of Sri Lanka. There was relative peace on the island until 1976, when the Tamils began demanding a separate Tamil state, and formed a separatist group called the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), or just "Tamil Tigers." A non-crisis civil war began in 1983, and the low-level violence continued until a peace treaty was signed in 2002. As in most civil wars, peace agreements alternated with periods of conflict, with each period of conflict more violent than the previous one. In this case, the peace treaty started falling apart in 2005, and violence took a big surge upward in summer 2006. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e060803 ""While world watches Lebanon, Sri Lanka goes to war.""#>) Low-level violence becomes extremely wearing on a society, especially in this case where the Tamil Tigers were blowing up buses and perpetrating other terrorist acts. Once a society enters a generational Crisis era, the population loses all fear of all out war, and demands victory at all costs from its politicians. At that point, the war turns into a full-scale generational crisis war, as happened in January, 2008, when the government announced they would win the war by the end of the year. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e080104 ""Sri Lanka government declares all out war against Tamil Tiger rebels.""#>) =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Genocidal crisis wars" This is the point where the war -- like any generational crisis war -- became increasingly genocidal. As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics doesn't use the strict legal definition of the word "genocidal." In generational theory, "genocidal" refers to any action that clearly gives little value to individual life. Generally this means that the society gives much higher political priority to scoring a victory in a battle than it gives to the goal of preserving individual lives, especially civilian lives. Returning to the Sri Lanka civil war, in 2008 the Tamil Tigers used civilians as human shields, and therefore the government couldn't attack the Tigers without attacking civilians. These are the actions that are now being called "war crimes" by the United Nations, but they're at the core of every generational crisis war. The genocidal actions get worse and worse, until a crisis war climax is reached. As far as I know, every analyst in the world was predicting that once the Tamil Tigers were defeated, the civil war would continue as low-level violence. That prediction was completely wrong, as I wrote repeatedly as the climax was approaching. The correct analogy was the surrender of the Nazis and Japan in 1945, the climax of WW II. That's what happened in Sri Lanka. Just as there was a Marshall Plan after WW II, both sides called for reconciliation after the Sri Lanka war ended. Once the climax occurs, the genocidal fury of each side turns into revulsion at their own actions during the war, and the survivors vow that they will devote their lives to guaranteeing that nothing so horrible will ever happen again. And the survivors keep that promise, as long as they're alive. When I was in school in the 1950s, the whole concept of "war crimes" never made sense to me. The purpose of war, it seemed to me, was to kill as many of the enemy as you can, so how could anything be a greater crime than that? I've since learned that "war crime" is a term of political art, often having little to do with actual crimes. It's easy to see why the Nazis were accused of war crimes for committing the Holocaust. But why weren't the Nazis also accused of war crimes for bombing London and other British cities? It the Sri Lankan government is being accused of "full-scale shellings of no-fire zones" as a war crime, then surely the Nazi bombing of British cities was also a war crime. Why do we never hear that? Well, actually, the reason is pretty obvious, isn't it. If the Nazi bombing of London was a war crime, then the Allied fire bombing of Dresden and Tokyo would also be a war crime, not to mention the nuking of two Japanese cities. So I've personally come full circle, and the concept of "war crime" still doesn't make any sense to me, just as it didn't in the 1950s. The Tamil Tigers were internationally identified as terrorists, and they were blowing up buses and killing civilians, so of course the Sinhalese army was going to do anything it had to in order to stop them. If the Sri Lankan army was guilty of "war crimes," then the Allies were even more guilty of "war crimes" in WW II. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The UN report" Thus, the UN report is infuriating the Sri Lankan government, as shown in this editorial in the <#stdurl http://www.dailynews.lk/2011/04/23/fea03.asp "Sri Lanka Daily News"#>:
"[The UN is] dealing with a country that has decidedly defeated terrorism, which countries such as the UK and USA, and their allies are failing to achieve; despite all their fire and economic power, while also carrying out regular and brutal attacks on civilians whether by unmanned drones or helicopter gunships. What matters much more than the blatant hypocrisy of the UN Secretary General’s Office in this matter, when considering what’s happening just now in Bahrain and for so long at Guantanamo, is the deliberate use of the facilities and instruments of the United Nations, to serve the needs and interests of those who continue threaten the territorial integrity of a sovereign member state of the UN, and are acknowledged even by the UN as having held Tamil civilians as human shields leading to so much death and injury to them, using child soldiers till the very defeat of their terror, and spreading the cult of the suicide killer, as well as designing, producing and marketing the equipment of the suicide killer, as reported by the US State Department. It is a tide of international deceit that is sweeping the Office of the [UN Secretary General] in New York, seeking to destroy the efforts at reconciliation and inclusive democracy in a country that is emerging from the ravages of a 30-year war against terror, where UN staffers, Western donors and the great missionaries of democracy were themselves working with and for the forces of terror."The government has called for demonstrations against the U.N. in Colombo (Sri Lanka's capital), but from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the politics of "war crimes" will have little effect on the reconciliation effort now occurring in the post-war (first turning) generational Recovery Era. (See <#hreftext ww2010.i.basics ""Basics of Generational Dynamics.""#>) What will happen, though, is that there will be a long-lasting political rift between the Sri Lankans and the United Nations, according to an analysis by the <#stdurl http://www.ipcs.org/article/china/sri-lankas-post-war-foreign-policy-strategy-europeans-out-and-3359.html "Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS)"#>:
"In sum, the present regime under President Mahinda Rajapaksa is astutely pursuing a two-pronged strategy to achieve new foreign policy goals in the post-war period. First, it prefers to keep the Europeans and Americans out of Sri Lanka, who have been constantly criticizing the government for war crimes and human rights abuses. ... Second, it wants to keep China in to defend itself against such allegations and possible actions as its veto power in the UNSC provides a perfect balance against the Western human rights lobby in international forums. China therefore has emerged as an indispensable factor in Sri Lankan post-war foreign policy strategy vis-à-vis the West. For China, Sri Lanka is a big pearl in its string of pearl strategy though not in traditional military sense of building bases but in terms of building favorable (authoritarian) regimes for its own grand strategic interest in the region."The Buddhist Sinhalese government of Sri Lanka is naturally more compatible with China than with mostly Hindu India, and so we can expect Sri Lanka to be a major strategic ally in the Indian Ocean during the Clash of Civilizations world war. Update: A reader says that the reference to Buddhism in the last paragraph is overreaching. The Buddhist religion may play a part, but the final conclusion is really based on the previous analysis, and the fact that Sri Lanka is very important to China's "string of pearls" strategy in the Indian Ocean. War-weary Sri Lanka, in a generational Recovery Era, will do everything possible to avoid taking sides in a war between India and China, but China today is laying the groundwork to coerce Sri Lanka onto their side when the time comes. (Added 23-Apr-2011) (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=737 "23-Apr-11 News -- Sri Lanka has deep split with U.N. on war crimes report"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110423 23-Apr-11 World View -- Explosive protests in Syria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110423.head 23-Apr-11 World View -- Explosive protests in Syria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110423.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110423.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110423.date 23-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110423.txt1 John McCain calls for more American involvement in Libya war =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110423.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Over 90 killed in massive street protests in Syria" On Friday, tens of thousands of Syrians poured into the streets after midday prayers in cities across the country and chanted anti-government slogans, "Freedom, freedom," and "God, Syria, freedom, that’s all." The government of President Bashar al-Assad had hoped that the announced ending of the 48 year old emergency rule law would soothe the protests, but this is a generational Awakening era for Syria, so that was never going to happen. At least 90 people were killed and dozens injured when Syrian security forces fired live bullets and teargas at the protesters. <#stdurl http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/04/22/146329.html "Al-Arabiya"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "President Obama names Syria's president Assad in condemnation" In a major change of policy, President Barack Obama has personally condemned the violence against peaceful demonstrators in Syria, and named President Bashar al-Assad:
"The United States condemns in the strongest possible terms the use of force by the Syrian government against demonstrators. This outrageous use of violence to quell protests must come to an end now. ... Over the course of two months since protests in Syria began, the United States has repeatedly encouraged President Assad and the Syrian Government to implement meaningful reforms, but they refuse to respect the rights of the Syrian people or be responsive to their aspirations. ... We strongly oppose the Syrian government’s treatment of its citizens and we continue to oppose its continued destabilizing behavior more generally, including support for terrorism and terrorist groups."<#stdurl http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/04/22/statement-president-obama-syria "White House"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "John McCain calls for more American involvement in Libya war" Friday's escalation du jour in the Libyan military action was Senator John McCain's visit to Benghazi, and his calling on the U.S. government to recognize the rebel Transitional National Council as the country’s government and provide financial assistance and more military aid to the insurgents. This followed Thursday's announcement that America is now providing armed drones to the Nato coalition. McCain's statements put additional pressure on the Americans and Europeans to do more, and leads the way for ground action if the rebels experience a sudden reversal. <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-04-22/obama-condemns-syria-for-violence-mccain-backs-libyan-rebels.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Mossad warns of Hizbollah attacks on Jewish targets" Israel's security agency Mossad issued a warning on Thursday night to travelling Israelis to be wary of a major terrorist attack on Jewish or Israeli targets that Hizbollah has already set in motioin at some undisclosed location. <#stdurl http://debka.com/article/20865/ "Debka"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.S. personnel said to be abandoning a base in Pakistan" CNN is quoting a senior Pakistani intelligence official as saying that U.S. military personnel have abandoned a southern base said to be crucial for American drone operations in the northwestern tribal areas. The Pakistan public has been demanding an end to the drone strikes, and if confirmed, this departure from the base would be a significant result of those demands. <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/04/22/pakistan.drone.strike/?hpt=T2 "CNN"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Americans give Iraq a deadline for 2011 troop withdrawal" There are still 47,000 American troops in Iraq, and under an agreement with Iraq made several years ago, they will be withdrawn by the end of this year, unless Iraq's government requests that they stay. Admiral Mike Mullen has warned Iraq that they have to decide within a few weeks whether they want to keep any U.S. troops past the end of 2011, and that otherwise, the U.S. would make some "irrevocable" logistics and operation decisions. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/22/us-iraq-usa-mullen-idUSTRE73L2PN20110422 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Easter warning: Dark chocolate can kill your dog" A small dog can die after eating a single chocolate Easter egg. The chemical in chocolate that gives humans a pleasant buzz – theobromine – has a highly toxic effect on dogs. <#stdurl http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peterwedderburn/100084825/an-easter-warning-dark-chocolate-can-kill-your-little-dog/ "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Falling egg consumption at Easter means that egg prices are falling" <#inc ww2010.pic g110422.jpg right "" "Easter Eggs"#> One of the busiest times for egg producers each year is just prior to Easter, but egg consumption has been decreasing since 2006, resulting in falling egg prices, at a time when other food prices have been surging. However, costs to produce eggs have been rising, and so egg producers have been losing money. <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703387904576279010199312374.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "'Birther' polls are consistent with polls in previous administrations" One in four Americans say that they believe that President Obama was not born in the United States. But a poll in 2006 found that one in three Americans said that President Bush had known about the 9/11 attacks, and did nothing about them or assisted in them. Similar findings in other polls: 40% of Americans suspect that officials in the federal government were directly responsible for the assassination of President Kennedy, and 38% say that the federal government is withholding proof of the existence of intelligent life from other planets. <#stdurl http://www.newspolls.org/articles/19604 "News Polls (2006)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Getting into the spirit of the Royal Wedding" <#inc ww2010.pic g110422b.jpg right "" "Souvenir tea bags"#> Here are ten ways for you to get into the spirit of the Royal Wedding. #7: Have tea time with souvenir tea bags. #1: Become a "CopyKate". <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/europe/10-Ways-You-Can-Get-Into-The-Spirit-of-the-Royal-Wedding-119921564.html "VOA"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Happiest Places Have Highest Suicide Rates" New research shows that the happiest countries and U.S. states have the highest suicide rates. Thurs, Canada, the United States, Iceland, Ireland and Switzerland display relatively high happiness levels and yet also have high suicide rates. Within the U.S., Hawaii and Utah have high average life satisfaction, and among the highest suicide rates, while New York and New Jersey score low on both measures. <#stdurl http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/04/110421082641.htm "Science Daily"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=737 "23-Apr-11 News -- Sri Lanka has deep split with U.N. on war crimes report"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110422b 22-Apr-11 News -- Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110422b.head 22-Apr-11 News -- Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110422b.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110422b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110422b.date 22-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110422b.txt1 Russia says that Europeans are violating the UN Security Council resolution =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110422b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics" Russia'a Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the current plan for Britain and France to send military advisers to Libya was going beyond the UN Security Council mandate, and was dragging the world into a ground war of indefinite duration. <#inc ww2010.pic g110421.jpg center "" "Vladimir Putin and Muammar Gaddafi (Jamestown)"#> At a news conference in Slovenia on Thursday, Lavrov said the following, according to <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/21/us-russia-libya-idUSTRE73K3E320110421 "Reuters"#>:
"We are not happy about the latest events in Libya, which are pulling the international community into a conflict on the ground. This may have unpredictable consequences. We can remember how instructors were first sent to some other countries, and later soldiers were sent there and hundreds of people died on both sides."In fact, Russian analysts are stating openly that the US/Nato ground invasion of Libya has all but begun, according to an analysis by <#stdurl http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=24436 "Global Research."#> The article lists several reasons that Russian analysts give:
"It's fairly well known that the ISI has a longstanding relationship with the Haqqani network. Haqqani is supporting, funding, training fighters that are killing Americans and killing coalition partners. And I have a sacred obligation to do all I can to make sure that doesn't happen."The U.S. has been pushing Pakistan to take on the Haqqani network and suspected al-Qaeda sanctuaries in North Waziristan, according to an analyst quoted by <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2011/04/201142016503942929.html "Al-Jazeera,"#> but the Pakistani government has refused, citing a lack of resources. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=735 "21-Apr-11 News -- Admiral Mullen accuses Pakistan of aiding militants who kill Americans"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110421 21-Apr-11 World View -- Greek bond yields to 22% =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110421.head 21-Apr-11 World View -- Greek bond yields to 22% =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110421.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110421.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110421.date 21-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110421.txt1 Israel intellectuals and artists back Palestinian state =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110421.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Greece's bond yields surge to over 22%, Portugal's to 10.6%" Bond yields (interest rates) continue to surge to MasterCard levels in a number of euroland countries, furthering the euro currency crisis, and putting the euro project into danger. Greek 2-year bond yields surged to 22.02%, and 10-year bond yields to 14.8%, both of them the highest yields since the birth of the euro. Portugal's rose to 10.58% and 9.28%, respectively. By comparison, German bonds are at 1.83% and 3.3%, respectively. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-20/german-bund-yields-rise-a-second-day-before-spanish-portuguese-debt-sales.html "Bloomberg"#> As Greece's bond yield surge, more and more analysts are predicting a Greek debt restructuring, a form of default that would force investors to take a 30-50% "haircut," losing that much of the principal they invested. European banks could handle the 100 billion or so euros that they would lose from the haircut, but the bigger danger is that the process would set a precedent, and would force them to mark to market all their other toxic assets. In 2008, regulators told American and European banks to keep toxic assets on their books at nominal values, essentially continuing to defraud investors. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/20/us-europe-banks-idUSTRE73J4BZ20110420 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel intellectuals and artists back Palestinian state" Dozens of Israeli intellectuals and artists have signed a petition calling for a Palestinian state based on 1967 borders and an end to the occupation. They plan to sign the petition on Thursday in front of the building where the state of Israel was proclaimed in May 1948. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13144615 "BBC"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "De facto settlement freeze in Jerusalem" Israel's Housing Minister Ariel Attias is accusing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of "surrendering" to U.S. President Barack Obama, and implementing a de facto settlement freeze in Jerusalem. Netanyahu's office denies the charges. <#stdurl http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/143605 "Israel National News"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.S. Treasury designates Bank of East Land as facilitating North Korean arms trafficking" The US Dept. of Treasury has designated the Bank of East Land as a major conduit for facilitating North Korea’s illegal arms trafficking." Activities include money laundering, the counterfeiting of goods and currency, bulk cash smuggling, and narcotics trafficking. This kind of designation has infuriated the North Koreans in the past. <#stdurl http://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/tg1146.aspx "U.S. Treasury"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "GCC, US and UK are close to brokering a deal on Yemen crisis" A deal on the Yemen crisis brokered by the six member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and backed by the U.S. and U.K. is close to being agreed on. The deal would have president Ali Abdullah Saleh step down, the principle demand of the protesters. <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/04/201142017275344133.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Protests continue in Syria, despite demands that they end" In Homs, Syria, large numbers of protesters took to the streets and chanted demands for "the downfall of the regime," defying security forces again on Wednesday. In Syria's second city, Aleppo, security forces beat several university students and arrested 37. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/20/us-syria-idUSTRE72N2MC20110420 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.S. multinationals shift hiring to overseas" U.S. multinational corporation have cut their work forces in the U.S. by 2.9 million during the 200s, while increasing employment overseas by 2.4 million, according to the Commerce Department. The multinationals say that the reason is that their customers are increasingly overseas. <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704821704576270783611823972.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "UN's feared climate change migration hasn't occurred" In 2005, the United Nations issued a dramatic warning that climate change would create 50 million climate refugees by 2010, fleeing the effects of climate change. The refugees never materialized, embarrassing the UN. When this story was reported last week, the UN removed from from its web site the map showing the places that were most at risk. <#stdurl http://asiancorrespondent.com/52189/what-happened-to-the-climate-refugees/ "Gavin Atkins"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Saudi Commodore: US and British think talks don't know what they're talking about" In 2007, articles in the Congressional Quarterly and the London Times showed that Washington and London analysts and "experts" on Iraq were ignorant of even the simplest facts about Iraq. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e070114b ""Guess what? British politicians and journalists are just as ignorant as Americans.""#>) What most analysts (left or right, Republican or Democrat) was ideological and completely nonsense. Now a Saudi Arabian Navy commodore is saying the same thing about analysts commenting on the Arab uprisings. He says that American analysts in Bahrain have had no idea what's going on, don't speak Arabic, and sometimes don't even know that there's a country called Oman. Some analyses of Saudi Arabia are so ridiculous they're laughable. <#stdurl http://arabnews.com/opinion/columns/article333488.ece "Arab News."#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Armenia strives to become a 'chess superpower'" Chess is being added as a compulsory subject in primary schools in Armenia to strengthen children's intellectual development, and to "create a solid basis for the country to become a chess superpower." <#stdurl http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/chess-has-become-a-mandatory-subject-in-armenia-in-a-bid-to-become-a-chess-superpower/story-e6frg6so-1226041555571 "Australian"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Swearing can help relieve pain" A new study shows swearing triggers not only an emotional response, but also a physical, relieving pain. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/8458163/Swearing-can-help-relieve-pain-study-claims.html "Telegraph"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=735 "21-Apr-11 News -- Admiral Mullen accuses Pakistan of aiding militants who kill Americans"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110420b 20-Apr-11 News -- Bahrain riots raise tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110420b.head 20-Apr-11 News -- Bahrain riots raise tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110420b.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110420b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110420b.date 20-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110420b.txt1 Iran's government splits over how to take advantage of Arab uprisings =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110420b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Bahrain riots raise tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia" The riots and demonstrations that consumed Manama, the capital of Bahrain, a few weeks ago have quieted down, but Bahraini officials are still arresting dozens of Shia professionals, including lawyers and doctors. Bahrain citizens who are students at universities and colleges in Britain are having their funding canceled and are ordered to return home immediately if they took part in peaceful protests, according to the <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/18/bahrain-hunger-strikes-students-protest "Guardian."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110419.jpg center "" "Bahrain's Imam Jawad mosque was demolished by Bahrain's tanks, according to Iran"#> Furthermore, the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE, sent troops to Bahrain on March 15 to suppress the riots, and those troops are there to stay, at least until the "external threat" is gone. The <#stdurl http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/NewsDetails.aspx?storyid=304123 "Gulf News"#> quotes Bahrain's Foreign Minister Shaikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa as saying:
"There are no Saudi forces, there are GCC forces and they will leave when they are done with any external threat. ... The external threat is a regional one. The external threat is a complete misunderstanding between the GCC and Iran. This is a threat. I am not pointing fingers here, but what we are seeing from Iran, on Bahrain, on Saudi Arabia, on Kuwait, the occupation of the islands of the UAE, doesn't make the situation a positive one. It keeps it a constant threat, and an ongoing one."Bahrain has a Sunni Muslim government, although the country's population is 2/3 Shia Muslim. Iran has a Shia Muslim government and population, and has historically claimed to have sovereignty over Bahrain. Bahrain has been destroying Shia mosques in Iran, according to Iran's state-run <#stdurl http://www.presstv.ir/detail/175672.html "Press TV."#> The Imam Jawad mosque (pictured above), was destroyed, as well as several other Shia mosques. However, Iran's claim is getting no sympathy from Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah, who has pledged unwavering support for Bahrain, according to <#stdurl http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/NewsDetails.aspx?storyid=304111 "Gulf News."#> "The security of Bahrain and Saudi Arabia is indivisible - being two bodies with one soul," he said. In fact, Saudi Arabia has threatened to take measures that might include withdrawing the Saudi diplomatic mission from Iran. This comes after Iranians protested in front of a Saudi embassy, and threw stones, breaking some windows, according to <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/18/us-saudi-iran-idUSTRE73H11520110418 "Reuters."#> "We hope that these continuous violations will not lead us to take other positions," said the Saudi foreign minister. Furthermore, Iran has been taking advantage of the turmoil caused by the Arab uprisings to step up arms smugglings to its proxies in the region, including Hizbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, according to <#stdurl http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2011/04/19/Iran-steps-up-gunrunning-to-Arab-proxies/UPI-45011303240105/ "UPI."#> When Hosni Mubarak was still in power in Egypt, he attempted to block Iran's arms shipments from reaching Hamas, but since he stepped down, arms trafficking has become easier. An analysis by <#stdurl http://www.debka.com/article/20817/ "Debka,"#> indicates that tensions are growing so high between the GCC, led by Saudi Arabia, and Iran that armed clashes between the two countries are a possibility. Iran may have to engage in some kind of military action, or lose credibility with the Shia communities in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE. Like many countries with interests in the Mideast, Iran has been schizophrenic about the uprisings in various Mideast countries. When the uprisings began in Tunisia and Egypt, Iran congratulated itself as being the inspiration for those uprisings, and encouraged them. However, Iran has not been so sympathetic with the uprisings in Syria, and reportedly has supplied weapons to the Syrian government to smash the uprisings. And, of course, Iran has said nothing about the violent behavior of its own security forces in response to the protests to the alleged fixing of the June, 2009, re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president. However, exactly what tangible action Iran should take in the face of popular unrest in Bahrain and elsewhere in the Arab world is causing a war of words in Tehran, according to <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37818&tx_ttnews[backPid]=61&cHash=6a62c5fbbfbd17eb7b9a90765106c563 "Jamestown."#> The public debate is largely along the political fault line that divides the Ahmadinejad government from reformist parliamentarians and those aligned with the Green opposition movement. Domestic political rivalries are preventing Iran's government from developing an effective strategy, and are only generating anger and threats from the GCC states. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=734 "20-Apr-11 News -- Bahrain riots raise tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110420 20-Apr-11 World View -- Increased concern over riots in Yemen =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110420.head 20-Apr-11 World View -- Increased concern over riots in Yemen =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110420.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110420.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110420.date 20-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110420.txt1 Britain and France sending military advisers to Libya =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110420.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Britain and France sending military advisers to Libya" Britain and France will send military teams to join the rebels in Benghazi, Libya, to provide advice, logistics and intelligence training. British Foreign Secretary William Hague insists that this is not an escalation, and is compliant with the UN enabling resolution, even though it forbids foreign occupation forces, since the military teams will not be involved in any fighting. However, Libya's foreign minister said that the plan would prolong fighting, and once again called for a ceasefire. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13138254 "BBC."#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "UN Security Council and Gulf Cooperation Council concern over Yemen" Security forces in Yemen have killed at least four people and wounded hundreds more after opening fire on demonstrations on Tuesday. The six-nation Gulf Security Council has offered to mediate, but the protesters refuse to consider any mediation until president Ali Abdullah Saleh steps down. Uprisings are going on all around the Mideast, but a sign of the seriousness of the one in Yemen is that the United Nations Security Council is meeting to discuss this particular crisis. <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/04/201141917134761300.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Violence continues in Syria after 48-year-old emergency rule law lifted" Syria's government says that it is close to lifting its draconian emergency rule law, instituted 48 years ago, thus fulfilling the promise made last week by president Bashar al-Assad in his nationwide television address. However, there was a fresh massacre on Tuesday, as security forces opened live fire against protesters in Homs, Syria's third largest city. Syria is in a generational Awakening era (like America in the 1960s-70s), and al-Assad's concession will only infuriate the young demonstraters further. <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/19/syria-lift-emergency-rule-violence "Guardian"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Cuba's Communist Party Congress ends with promises, promises" Last September, Cuba surprised the world by announcing the end of Cuba's communist economy. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e100916 ""16-Sep-10 News -- Cuba's seismic shift has global implications.""#>) On Sunday, the first Communist Party Congress in 25 years ended, with promises of nearly 200 economic reforms aimed at boosting Cuba's freefalling economy. However, reform promises were not kept in previous party congresses. <#stdurl http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/04/18/2174170/a-historical-look-at-the-cuban.html "Miami Herald"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Donald Trump surges in presidential public opinion polls" Donald Trump's potential run for president in 2012 is widely considered to be a joke, and for all I know, it is. But he is surging in public opinion polls, and from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the significance of his candidacy is that he's highly nationalistic. Highly nationalistic candidates do poorly in most eras, but in a generational Crisis era, anxious, xenophobic voters often turn to nationalistic candidates in a big way. This has happened in many European countries, most recently Finland. "The world is just destroying our country. These other countries are just sapping our strength. OPEC is sapping our strength. Let the other countries worry about themselves," said Trump. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/usa/Trump-Stirs-Interest-as-Presidential-Contender-120223464.html "VOA"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=734 "20-Apr-11 News -- Bahrain riots raise tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110419b 19-Apr-11 News -- Deflationary spiral approaches crisis levels in U.S. and Europe =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110419b.head 19-Apr-11 News -- Deflationary spiral approaches crisis levels in U.S. and Europe =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110419b.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110419b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110419b.date 19-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110419b.txt1 Standard & Poor's puts U.S. government debt on negative watch =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110419b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Deflationary spiral approaches crisis levels in U.S. and Europe" Markets experienced several shocks on Monday. China raised its banking reserve requirements, Greece was rumored to be close to a default, Moody's downgraded Ireland's debt to junk status, and S&P put U.S. government debt on negative watch. <#inc ww2010.pic g110418.jpg center "" "Will Greece have to sell the Parthenon to pay its debts?"#> The People’s Bank of China increased the amount of money that lenders are required to set aside as reserves, according to the <#stdurl http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2011/04/19/2003501102 "Taipai Times."#> This effectively restricts the amount of money that Chinese banks can lend, making it harder to get credit. Many analysts believe that China will be the engine that returns the world economy to growth, and the reserve requirement change puts that theory into doubt. As we've been reporting for weeks (months, really), investor confidence in Greece's ability to avoid debt default has been plummeting, and it reached new depths over the weekend, as reports surfaced that German Chancellor Angela Merkel appeared to be preparing the Germany public for a Greek default, according to the <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/apr/18/greece-debt-default-eurozone "Guardian."#> This follows Moody's downgrade on Friday of Ireland's debt to junk status, according to the <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8453619/EU-debt-costs-rise-after-Ireland-downgrade-Greek-delays.html "Telegraph."#> Other shocking news from Europe included the strong showing of the nationalistic "True Finns" party in Finland's elections on Sunday, according to the <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5giM-qDTuPAOWjna9QQ1HhF-TRGvw?docId=d0cd9945660f4ae5b975f14b26e771ec "Associated Press."#> The True Finns are strongly opposed to bailouts. This victory throws the EU's entire bailout program into doubt, since all eurozone countries unanimously have to approve any bailout package. But the biggest shock on Monday was the threat, by Standard & Poor's' ratings service, to downgrade U.S. debt from its current AAA rating, according to <#stdurl http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCATRE73H2JT20110418 "Reuters"#>. According to S&P:
"Because the U.S. has, relative to its AAA peers, what we consider to be very large budget deficits and rising government indebtedness, and the path to addressing these is not clear to us, we have revised our outlook on the long-term rating to negative from stable."For the rest of Monday, analysts and politicians were stumbling over themselves to downplay the change. White House economist Austan Goolsbee called it a "political judgment" that "we don't agree with." Other analysts said that it was a good thing, because it serves as a wake-up call to Washington, which will cause all problems to be solved. I have no way of knowing whether politics was part of the S&P decision, but I do know that every downgrade draws similar statements from politicians. European politicians have been harshly critical of downgrades of Greek, Irish and Portuguese debt, sometimes threatening to create a "European ratings agency" that presumably wouldn't apply such downgrades to European countries. A number of television analysts repeatedly expressed surprise on Monday that the dollar currency strengthened against the euro and some other currencies. A strengthening of the dollar is consistent with the global deflationary spiral. In a deflationary environment, prices stay low (or fall), making currency more valuable. As the world's reserve currency, the US dollar is much less susceptible to inflationary pressure, and U.S. debt default is not necessarily related to the strength of the dollar. In other words, the U.S. may well be on its way to default, but that doesn't necessarily affect the strength of the dollar currency, which has almost become an international currency. There is no solution to the financial crisis. I sometimes use the analogy of a tsunami launched decades ago. You know that it's coming, and politicians will demand that bucket brigades be set up on the beach, but it can't be stopped. All you can do, as an individual, is run for higher ground -- and that will mean different things to different people, depending on their circumstances. As I've said many times, treasure the time you have left, and use it to prepare yourself, your family, your community and your nation. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Inflation versus deflation" I need to review a couple of things. In the 2004-2007 period, a few people (like me) were saying that we're in the middle of a huge real estate and credit bubble. But mainstream financial analysts, economists and journalists ridiculed that idea, saying, "Housing prices can't go down -- people have to live somewhere," and "Banks won't foreclose -- it's not in their interest to do so" and "These housing construction firms know what they're doing, and they wouldn't be building houses if it were just a bubble." But today, it's become common wisdom that there was a housing bubble in the 2004-2007 period. These "experts" have done a 180-degree U-turn. A big part of the credit bubble was fraud by bankers who created fraudulent mortgage-backed synthetic securities, and sold them to investors as AAA investments. Today, we know that these securities were based on mathematically impossible assumptions, and that the financial engineers who created them must have known what they were doing. (See <#hreftext ww2010.i.smoking100414 ""Financial Crisis Inquiry hearings provide 'smoking gun' evidence of widespread criminal fraud.""#>) Analysts and journalists on CNBC and Bloomberg tv ALWAYS lie when they talk about price/earnings ratios (also called valuations). (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e101005 ""5-Oct-10 News -- Goldman Sachs's Cohen gives price/earnings fantasy""#> and <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e100824 ""24-Aug-10 News -- Ariel's Bobrinskoy gives price/earnings fantasy.""#>) Mainstream economists have been consistently wrong at least for 15 years. As I've said many times, they didn't predict and can't explain the tech bubble of the late 1990s, or the credit and real estate bubble of 2000s. They didn't predict and can't explain the financial crisis since 2007. They've incorrectly predicted economic growth, rising unemployment, and rising inflation almost every day for three years, and they've been wrong almost every time, or at best no more accurate than the flip of a coin. They have no idea whatsoever what the economy will look like next year. Thus, we have to return to these fundamentals: As I wrote in 2007 (see <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e070910 ""Understanding deflation: Why there's less money in the world today than a month ago""#>), there is less and less money in the world every day, thanks to deleveraging, and the collapse of the huge credit bubble. The reason that debt levels keep going up in most countries is that there's less money available in the world to pay off debts. The reason that bond yields (interest rates) keep going up is that there's less money, and by the law of supply and demand, the price of money (as measured by interest rates) keeps going up. Politicians, analysts and journalists who talk about (hyper)inflation are engaging in exactly the same kind of wishful thinking that they did when they were saying that there's no real estate bubble. They're all hoping that hyperinflation will occur, because that will dissolve debts and will boost stock prices. But hyperinflation is impossible with less and less money in the world every day. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Bernanke versus the World" A couple of weeks ago, a member of the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=12&p=8366#p8364 "Generational Dynamics forum"#> called my attention to a posting by <#stdurl http://blog.markdcook.com/?p=236 "Mark D. Cook,"#> called "Bernanke versus the World":
"The world clearly has a firm chasm between global perception by other capitalistic economies and Bernanke’s cavalier approach to the U.S. economy. Clearly, Mr. B. has no fear or respect for inflation. ... Bernanke feels his role is to ignore inflation and intervene socialistically to create artificially unstable environments. ... Personality is at the core of this power move by Bernanke. ... Bernanke has a very stubborn nature. The more he is questioned the more stubborn resolve he possesses. This will always put a person behind the curve. He will not go into a neutral state of tempering the QE2 or his monetary policy quick enough. That would require him to eat crow. His nature prohibits him from acknowledging humility, let alone the remote possibility his approach has long term devastating effects. ... Won’t some entity, A.K.A. Congress, introduce a new word to Bernanke and explain its meaning? That word is inflation. Americans will ponder this as they pay $4.00 for gasoline, guess Bernanke does not buy gasoline but instead has a full tank of ego."I have to laugh at this silly rant. He ridicules Bernanke for being stubborn, and implies that anyone who doesn't believe in his inflation religion must be a socialist. <#inc ww2010.pic bernanke.jpg right "" "Ben Bernanke"#> Bernanke has been wrong about a number of things in the last decade. He believed that a so-called "fiat currency" could never suffer deflation, but this has been disproven by Japan's experience. He believed that verbal statements by the Fed could control inflation and deflation. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e040917 ""Bernanke / Federal Reserve congratulates itself on jawboning policy.""#>) He <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e050314 "blamed America's debt"#> on a "global savings glut in other countries." And he believed that the Great Depression could have been cured in 1930 by a very simple fix of lowering interest rates, and this has been mostly disproven by his own experience as Fed chairman since 2007. However, it's not clear that he's been "wrong" for the last three years. He's been doing what he had to do, and saying what he had to say. There's nothing he could have done differently at any point, because of political pressure. After all I've disagreed with Ben Bernanke, it's majorly ironic that it sometimes seems the only person in the world who agrees with me that we're not headed for inflation is Ben Bernanke. I was listening to some commentators ridiculing him a while ago. "His problem is that he doesn't have to drive to work every day -- if he did, then he'd know that there's inflation going on." That's what Mark Cook is saying as well. I guess that must be my problem too, since I don't drive to work every day either. I've frequently wondered whether Bernanke really understands that we're headed for a crash and deflationary spiral, and just isn't able to say so, for fear of being blamed for triggering a crash. I guess my personal appraisal of this situation is that if Bernanke is willing to stand up to so much heat from people like Mark Cook, then he must know a lot more about what's going on than people give him credit for. He may yet rescue his historical reputation. So it isn't "Bernanke versus the World" as Cook says. It's "Bernanke and Xenakis versus the World." Whew! What irony! (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=733 "19-Apr-11 News -- Deflationary spiral approaches crisis levels in U.S. and Europe"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110419 19-Apr-11 World View -- 'Boots on the ground' in Libya =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110419.head 19-Apr-11 World View -- 'Boots on the ground' in Libya =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110419.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110419.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110419.date 19-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110419.txt1 Chinese organized crime grows substantially in Russia =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110419.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "More talk of 'boots on the ground' in Libya" Muammar Gaddafi's forces are pounding the port city of Misrata with salvoes of rockets and artillery, including cluster bombs. Up to 1,000 people are thought to have died there, 80% of them civilians, including children. The logical solution is for Nato to provide "close air support" to the rebels, requiring "boots on the ground" in the form of special forces as forward air controllers to direct air strikes. However, technically this would require another United Nations Security Council resolution. <#stdurl http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2011/0419/1224294979012.html "Irish Times"#> Axel Poniatowski, chairman of France's foreign affairs committee, agrees, saying that Gaddafi plans to destroy Misrata, and will succeed without boots on the ground. He says that French commandos should be deployed on the ground in Libya to help guide air strikes. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13124447 "BBC."#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Libyan assets will be hard to unfreeze" One of the proposals to help the Libyan rebels is to unfreeze Libyan assets that were frozen last month to keep them out of reach of Muammar Gaddafi, and make the assets available to the rebels. The U.S. is holding $34 billion in frozen assets, and billions more are held by European countries. However, any attempt to unfreeze those assets and make them available to the rebels would run into significant legal delays from Gaddafi supporters, and Gaddafi might even win in court. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/12/us-libya-usa-assets-idUSTRE73B7VU20110412 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Palestinians reaffirm plans to seek Palestinian state through U.N. in September" Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas reaffirmed his plans to seek recognition from the United Nations for an independent Palestinian state in September. According to Abbas, the attempt might be blocked in the U.N. Security Council by a U.S. veto, but approval by the U.N. General Assembly would be legally binding. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-18/palestinians-to-seek-statehood-approval-in-september-abbas-says.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Chinese organized crime grows substantially in Russia" Over the last several years, the number and brazenness of ethnically based Chinese criminal groups in Russia have grown substantially, to the point where Beijing-Moscow ties are threatened. Much of the crime involves "complete financial schemes and technical cleverness, the use of contemporary Internet technology, electronic payment systems, and a deep knowledge of financial monitoring and exchange procedures." <#stdurl http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2011/04/window-on-eurasia-chinese-organized.html "Paul Goble"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Number of Violent Neo-Nazis Rising in Germany" The head of Germany's domestic intelligence agency reports that the number of violent neo-Nazis increased by 600 to 5,600 in 2010. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,757655,00.html "Spiegel"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Young generation of Russians more intolerant of other ethnic groups" A survey of 1500 Russians found that younger people are less tolerant of people of other nationalities than their parents and other older people. 33% of young people said that they felt "anger" toward non-Russians, and 43% support a ban on immigration. These figures are lower for older generations. These findings are consistent with the Generational Dynamics principle that survivors of a generational crisis war reject xenophobia, and devote their lives to preventing any such horrible war of happening to their children, while each generation born after the war (Boomers and Gen-Xers in the case of the West) are increasingly xenophobic. <#stdurl http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2011/04/window-on-eurasia-young-russians-less.html "Paul Goble"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=733 "19-Apr-11 News -- Deflationary spiral approaches crisis levels in U.S. and Europe"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110418b 18-Apr-11 News -- Russia's Muslims vs Christians on the National Emblem and on polygamy =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110418b.head 18-Apr-11 News -- Russia's Muslims vs Christians on the National Emblem and on polygamy =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110418b.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110418b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110418b.date 18-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110418b.txt1 A sign of increasing Muslim-Orthodox xenophobia =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110418b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia's Muslims vs Christians on the National Emblem and on polygamy" Russia's Chief Mufti, Talgat Tadzhuddin, has requested that the Russian National Emblem be modified to include both a Muslim crescent and a Christian Orthodox cross. <#inc ww2010.pic g110417a.jpg center "" "Russia's Chief Mufti, Talgat Tadzhuddin (Ria Novosti)"#> "Our ancestry has lived here for ages. We have united into one state by Divine will. So our neighbor is like a brother," says Tadzhuddin, according to <#stdurl http://en.rian.ru/russia/20110415/163540921.html "Ria Novosti."#> Muslims in Russia have long complained about the emblem, which dates back to Czarist times and is thought to contain Christian symbols, according to <#stdurl http://www.rferl.org/content/article/1063610.html "RFERL"#> in a 2005 article. The current coat of arms was adopted in November 1993, and represents a double-headed eagle with three cross-tipped crowns. A shield on its breast features a horseman slaying a dragon, a figure many identify as St. George. <#inc ww2010.pic g110417b.gif right "" "Russia's national emblem"#> Thus, Tadzhuddin's request is his attempt to have the emblem represent both of Russia's two major religions equally. According to the <#stdurl https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rs.html "CIA Fact Book,"#> Russia's people are 15-20% Orthodox and 10-15% Muslim, with a large non-practicing population, resulting from the Soviet legacy of atheism. However, Muhammedgali Khuzin, the head of the executive committee of the Russian Association of Islamic Consensus, and another mufti (expert in Muslim law), opposes the idea of modifying the emblem, saying that it would lead to accusations of ecumenism and would increase xenophobia, according to <#stdurl http://vestnikkavkaza.net/news/society/12949.html "Vestnik Kavkaza (Moscow)."#> Tadzhuddin is requesting that the crowns on the heads of the double-headed eagle be replaced by the Muslim crescent and the Orthodox cross, respectively, "capped by the crown in the middle," according to <#stdurl http://www.interfax-religion.com/?act=news&div=8378 "Interfax Religion."#> The article quotes Orthodox Christian Archpriest Vsevolod Chaplin as saying,
"The Russian state emblem has a history of many centuries and it has stood the test of time. It has not been supplanted by Soviet symbols, which are falling into oblivion at an enormous speed, while the symbols, historically justified, are again finding their due place in Russia's life."At the same time, Chaplin criticized Mufti Tadzhuddin as backing polygamy, quoting Tadzhuddin as saying, "Four lawfully-wedded wives are better than 40 mistresses. Russian men have 40 mistresses, each." That would be a good trick. I doubt that any man could survive long with 40 mistresses. In Malaysia in 1984, Islamic Family Law listed five conditions to be followed by a Muslim wanting more than one wife, according to <#stdurl http://english.pravda.ru/society/family/13-04-2011/117556-polygamy-0/ "Pravda."#> The conditions, some of which were subsequently modified, are:
"What do women think of the issue of polygamy? Of course, there are women who are willing to share their husband with other women. There are cases where Russian ladies were not the only wives of Muslims husbands and even converted to Islam. They explained their choice by the fact that all Russian young men were drunks and there were no normal Russian men left, while polygamous marriage, even with an older man of a different confession, gave them hopes to experience a happy family life and raise children."Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the colorful leader of one of Russia's opposition parties, has repeatedly called for legalization of polygamy in Russia. In 2000 he introduced a bill that allowed men to have up to four wives, with mandatory consent of all existing spouses. The proposal was rejected. So it seems that both proposals will continue to be rejected. There will be no sanctioned polygamy (though there may still be Russian men with 40 mistresses), and there will be no change to the Russian national emblem. What will happen is that there will be increasing tension at ecumenical levels between Muslims and Russian Orthodox Christians, and there will be increasing mutual xenophobia and violence between Muslims and Christians at civil levels. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=733 "18-Apr-11 News -- Russia's Muslims vs Christians on the National Emblem and on polygamy"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110418 18-Apr-11 World View -- Pak-India release fishermen =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110418.head 18-Apr-11 World View -- Pak-India release fishermen =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110418.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110418.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110418.date 18-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110418.txt1 Cuba's Bay of Pigs Generation Celebrates 50 Years =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110418.txt2 This morning's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pakistan and India release each other's fishing prisoners" On Monday, India released 39 Pakistani prisoners who had allegedly been fishing in India's territorial waters in the Arabian Sea. Pakistan released 89 Indian prisoners who had been caught fishing in India's territorial waters in the Arabian Sea. One fisherman had been imprisoned by Pakistan for 23 years. <#stdurl http://www.dawn.com/2011/04/14/pakistan-releases-89-indian-prisoners.html "Dawn"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Cuba's Bay of Pigs Generation Celebrates 50 Years" April 17 is the 50th anniversary of the Bay of Pigs invasion, when the forces of Fidel Castro and Che Guevara defeated a small army of 1,500 CIA-trained Cuban exiles. Cuba's current leader, Raul Castro, is celebrating by holding the first Cuban Communist Party Congress in 14 years. <#stdurl http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2011/04/15/party-time-in-havana-cubas-bay-of-pigs-generation-hopes-to-get-it-right/?xid=newsletter-daily "Time"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria's security forces fire again on protesters" Syrian officials had hoped that President Bashar al-Assad's 'conciliatory' speech to the nation on Sunday would be enough to calm the protests. But the fury of protesters only seemed to increase on Sunday -- nor surprising during a generational Awakening era. Syria's security forces fired on protesters with live bullets, injuring two people. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/17/us-syria-idUSTRE72N2MC20110417 "Reuters"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "As Greece heads for debt default, the path has plenty of pitfalls" <#inc ww2010.pic g110417c.gif right "" "Greece's gross debt, 2009-14"#> That Greece will have to restructure its debt (a form of default) is now almost a foregone conclusion, as evidenced by the continued rise of bond yields on Friday. Last year's bailout allowed Greece to make a few loan payments, but it only increased the size of Greece's debt. The restructuring will have political consequences, since the politicians all told their citizens that they wouldn't lose money. The bailout comprised direct loans from 15 eurozone countries. A restructuring could well mean losses for those 15 lenders, which would be deeply resented in Germany, Finland, the Netherlands and other strong countries whose voters were wary of the bailouts to begin with. <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703648304576265070634571908.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Upset victory in Finland puts European bailouts in doubt" The "True Finns" party, which opposes EU bailouts for any European country, won an upset victory in Finland elections on Sunday, throwing the EU bailout negotiations into disarray. Finland worked its own way through a 1990s recession, triggered by a banking meltdown that coincided with an export slump as the Soviet Union collapsed. Finns feel that the Greeks, the Irish and the Portuguese should do the same. <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-04-17/finland-s-euro-skeptics-set-for-government-after-election-upset.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "France stops all Italian trains carrying north African immigrants" Italy, which has been dealing with a flood of 20,000 Tunisian migrants pouring into Italy following the uprising in Tunisia, has followed through on its threat to provide travel visas to the migrants, allowing them to travel freely around Europe. Most of them speak French, and so most of them want to go to France, so Italy's actions have infuriated French officials. So French border guards and riot police have been stopping migrants from Italy, and sending them back. All train services from Italy have been canceled. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/8457138/France-stops-all-Italian-trains-carrying-north-African-immigrants.html "Telegraph"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Financial crisis: US blames China, Brazil blames the US" Global finance chiefs, at the weekend meeting of the International Monetary Fund, disagreed as to who was most to blame for the financial crisis. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner blamed China and other developing nations for allowing their currencies to become too strong. Brazil Finance Minister Guido Mantega blamed loose monetary policies in the U.S., and other rich nations. (This reminds of 2005, when Fed Chairman-to-be Ben Bernanke <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e050314 "blamed America's debt"#> on a "global savings glut.") <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-16/finance-chiefs-at-imf-split-over-forces-behind-capital-flows.html "Bloomberg"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel strives to foil new Turkish flotilla plan" Turkey plans to try again to break Israel's blockade of Gaza by launching an aid flotilla after their June 12 elections. Israel is stepping up diplomatic efforts to derail the plan. <#stdurl http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/israel-strives-to-foil-turkish-flotilla-plan "The National (UAE)"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The 'birther' issue" This "birther" issue has become incredibly crazy, with charges and counter-charges all over the map. There's only one set of facts that make sense to me. As I wrote last year in <#inc ww2010.weblog.subref e100821 e100821b "this report,"#> a New York Times article from 2008 says that President Barack Obama was a Muslim at birth, and later chose to become Christian. So the only thing that makes sense to me is that Obama was born in Hawaii, as he's said, but that his birth certificate gives Muslim as his religion, as Donald Trump has suggested. That would explain why Obama does not wish to release his birth certificate. This is the only set of facts that explain the craziness for me. <#stdurl http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/12/opinion/12luttwak.html "NY Times"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Coldplay fans least likely to have sex on first date" News you can use: According to a new survey by a dating web site, Coldplay music fans are least likely to have sex on a first date. Fans of Adele, Lady Gaga, Katy Perry, Kings Of Leon are also very unlikely to have sex on the first date. Fans of Nirvana, Metallica, Linkin Park, Kanye West, Gorillaz are most likely to be willing to have sex on the first date. <#stdurl http://www.nme.com/news/coldplay/56066 "NME Magazine"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=733 "18-Apr-11 News -- Russia's Muslims vs Christians on the National Emblem and on polygamy"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110417b 17-Apr-11 News -- Syria's president Assad adopts conciliatory tone to nation =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110417b.head 17-Apr-11 News -- Syria's president Assad adopts conciliatory tone to nation =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110417b.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110417b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110417b.date 17-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110417b.txt1 Activists are demanding that Assad step down completely =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110417b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria's president Assad adopts conciliatory tone to nation" After one month of atrocities and bloody suppression of protests under his orders, killing over 200 people, President Bashar al-Assad took a more conciliatory tone in a televised speech to the nation on Saturday, according to <#stdurl http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/04/16/syria.government/ "CNN."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110416.jpg center "" "Bashar al-Assad in televised address to nation of Syria"#> Al-Assad said the following:
"We (will) lift the state of emergency contrary to the opinion of many others who think this might lead to imbalance in the state of security. I disagree with this, and I think this will consolidate the security of the country. ... We have to distinguish between reform and chaos. The Syrian people are civilized people. They don't like chaos, they don't like instability. ... This period we pass through, the blood that has been shed in Syria, has been painful for all Syrians. We are saddened by the death of any person who has been sacrificed."However, according to <#stdurl http://www.dp-news.com/pages/detail.aspx?l=2&articleid=80967 "Day Press (Damascus),"#> he warned that new laws in the works would not be lenient towards what he called "sabotage". Presumably this leaves the door open to further violence against protesters. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Syria is in a generational Awakening era, since its last generational crisis war was the Lebanese civil war. In Syria, the climax was the 1982 massacre of tens of thousands of civilians in Hama by Syria's army, under the orders of the current president's father. Although there's talk in the press that Syria's violence might spiral into a civil war, that's impossible during a generational Awakening era, since there are too many survivors of the last crisis war still alive, and they've dedicated their lives to making sure that nothing so horrible happens again. America's last generational Awakening era occurred in the 1960s and 1970s, and climaxed in the resignation of President Richard Nixon. This provides a clue to what's going to happen in Syria. Saturday's announcement of reforms will not satisfy the protesters, who will continue to demand that Assad step down, and the opposition will grow until it does, even if it takes several years. It's a basic principle of Generational Dynamics that even in a dictatorship, major policies are determined by masses of people, entire generations of people, and not by politicians. In Syria, we're seeing that in action, as dictator Assad is forced by young protesters to back down. It's worth pointing out that Iran is in the same situation, in a generational Awakening era, with young protesters who are generally pro-Western. The hardline government has been using violence to try to permanently end the protests, but the protests will go in different forms for some time, probably until the hardline regime of crisis war survivors is replaced. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=732 "17-Apr-11 News -- Syria's president Assad adopts conciliatory tone to nation"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110417 17-Apr-11 World View -- Nato running out of bombs =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110417.head 17-Apr-11 World View -- Nato running out of bombs =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110417.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110417.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110417.date 17-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110417.txt1 Yemen women complain president is degrading them =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110417.txt2 Today's key headlines from <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com "GenerationalDynamics.com"#>. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Nato is running short of precision bombs in Libya" A month ago, when the Libya campaign began, it was expected to end quickly, and the United States, which was already involved in two wars in Muslim nations, was to be involved for only a few days. But now Nato is in charge, but the Libyan action appears to be stalemated, and Nato is running short of precision laser-guided bombs and other munitions. The US has significant stockpiles of laser-guided missiles, but they don't fit on British- and French-made planes. The result is that there are increasing demands for the US to return to fully active participation in the air campaign. <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com./world/nato-runs-short-on-some-munitions-in-libya/2011/04/15/AF3O7ElD_story.html "Washington Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Hamas PM urges support of swap deal for Gilad Shalit" Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh urged Palestinians to support a deal to release Israeli Soldier Gilad Shalit, held in a Palestinian since he was captured in 2006, in exchange for Israel's release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, including 300 top militants and political leaders. <#stdurl http://maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=379284 "Ma'an News"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "South Korea enhances military after Cheonan attack" It's been over a year since North Korea's attack on the South Korean warship Cheonan, killing 46 sailors. The Cheonan attack was a wake-up call to the South's military to improve combat preparedness and security awareness. The military is introducing spy drones and stealth fighters, and drastically strengthening the fire power of 650,000 member military. It's been several months since the last North Korean military provocation, so it may be time for a new one. <#stdurl http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/03/19/60/0301000000AEN20110319002000315F.HTML "Yonhap"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Women in Yemen complain that president Saleh is degrading them" Thousands of Yemeni women protested in Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, on Saturday, saying that President Ali Abdullah Saleh should be punished for being a misogynist. This follows his remarks on Friday that women who were participating in anti-government protests alongside men were violating Islamic principles that men and women should not mix. He advised women to stay at home. <#stdurl http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/04/16/yemen.women.protesters/ "CNN"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=732 "17-Apr-11 News -- Syria's president Assad adopts conciliatory tone to nation"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110416b 16-Apr-11 News -- Killing of Italian activist exposes splits among Gaza militants =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110416b.head 16-Apr-11 News -- Killing of Italian activist exposes splits among Gaza militants =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110416b.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110416b.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110416b.date 16-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110416b.txt1 Terrorist acts put Hamas-Fatah reconciliation in danger =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110416b.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Killing of Italian activist exposes splits among Gaza militants" Vittorio Arrigoni, an Italian pro-Palestinian activist who has been living in Gaza for three years, was abducted and killed on Thursday. A Salafist militant group called Al-Tawhid and Al-Jihad took credit, according to <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/europe/Italian-Activist-Found-Dead-in-Gaza-119904369.html "VOA."#> They offered to spare Arrigoni's life only if Hamas would release all Salafists in prison in Gaza, but then killed him a few hours later. <#inc ww2010.pic g110415.jpg center "" "Vittorio Arrigoni in 2008 (VOA)"#> There is widespread Palestinian condemnation of the killing, according to the <#stdurl http://www.paltelegraph.com/world/middle-east/77-middle-east/8940-widespread-palestinian-condemnation-of-arrigoni-killing-in-gaza.html "Palestine News Network,"#> which quotes a Hamas spokesman as saying, "This is a clear attempt to create chaos in Gaza and to destroy the strong relations between the Palestinian people and their friends all over the world." Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) described the murder as an absurd and shameful crime, according to <#stdurl http://www.agi.it/english-version/world/elenco-notizie/201104151756-cro-ren1070-abu_mazen_calls_arrigoni_murder_absurd_and_disgraceful "Agenzia Giornalistica Italia (AGI)."#> He added, "This shameful crime goes against all the values of our people who are fighting for freedom and independence." Arrigoni has been working to end the Israeli blockade of Gaza. Salafi beliefs are similar to the Wahhabi sect beliefs of al-Qaeda, and in both cases these beliefs have been reinterpreted to support terrorist and violent acts in support of the most extreme and radical forms of Islam. Hamas is the organization that has been governing the Gaza Strip since it defeated Fatah (the military wing of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank) in a 2007 war, according to an analysis by <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/strenger-than-fiction/hamas-is-missing-the-train-of-history-1.356172 "Haaretz."#> However, Hamas is losing control of Gaza, largely because of its own internal complexity, with various wings promoting anything from war with Israel to total peace and coexistence with Israel. The result is that more militant Gaza groups are asserting their independence from Hamas. Today the Palestinian Authority is focused on one major goal: To get the United Nations, in September, to recognize a Palestinian state by international mandate, base on pre-1967 borders. A prerequisite to that goal is for Hamas and Fatah to reconcile, and the Palestinian Authority, in cooperation with the Egyptians, are pressing hard to accomplish that. However, different militant wings in Gaza have been sabotaging that effort, and it seems likely that the murder of Vittorio Arrigoni has the same motivation. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=731 "16-Apr-11 News -- Killing of Italian activist exposes splits among Gaza militants"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110416 16-Apr-11 World View - Gaddafi's cluster bombs =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110416.head 16-Apr-11 World View - Gaddafi's cluster bombs =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110416.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110416.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110416.date 16-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110416.txt1 Saudis sign nuclear cooperation pact with China =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110416.txt2 "World View" is an experiment, putting what used to be called "Additional links" into a separate posting. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Gaddafi using cluster bombs on residential areas in Misrata, Libya" Muammar Gaddafi's forces in Libya have been using cluster bombs on residential areas of the rebel-held city of Misrata, according to accusations by human rights groups. Cluster bombs are banned by more than 100 countries. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13102328 "BBC"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israel Air Force strikes Hamas military bases in Gaza City" The Israeli air force (IAF) attached two Hamas military bases on Friday overnight, with no reported casualties. The strikes were in response to Grad rockets fired from Gaza into southern Israel earlier on Friday. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=216789 "Jerusalem Post"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Saudis sign nuclear cooperation pact with China" Saudi Arabia announced plans to sign a nuclear cooperation agreement with China. Saudi Arabia and the U.S. have had a very public cooling in relations, and this new agreement puts the Saudis closer to China's camp, along with Pakistan. This development is consistent with the expectation that China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be opposed to America, India and Russia in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war. <#stdurl http://arabnews.com/saudiarabia/article354625.ece "Arab News"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Putin-Medvedev tandem ruling relationship disintegrates" Russia’s tandem rulers -- President Dmitry Medvedev and former president and current Prime Minister Vladimir Putin -- are increasingly at odds as the 2012 election approaches. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37790&tx_ttnews[backPid]=512 "Jamestown"#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Survey: Financial newsletter writers rush to become bullish" The number of financial newsletter writers who were bearish plunged dramatically within one week, according to a survey released on April 5. This flood in the bullish direction is the biggest since the survey began in 2003. Bears are now just 15.7% of those surveyed, down from 23.1% a week earlier. This happened despite a deluge of recent bad news -- Mideast turmoil, Irish bailout, and fears of a municipal bond crisis. If you want to understand why analysts in the 1930s kept saying that prosperity was just around the corner, even though stock prices kept falling, then just look at this survey. <#stdurl http://www.cnbc.com/id/42459309/Bears_Give_Up_Biggest_Switch_in_Sentiment_in_7_Years "CNBC."#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Cyber crime 'botnet' of 2 million PCs shut down" U.S. authorities scored a major victory against a major cyber crime ring. A computer virus, known as Coreflood, has infected more than 2 million PCS, enslaving them as "zombies" into a "botnet" that allowed foreign criminals to take control of the infected computers and steal funds via fraudulent banking and wire transactions. Once US officials took control of the botnet, they were able to command the zombies to stop sending stolen passwords and financial data. However, the foreign criminals are probably a Russian crime ring, and they have not been caught. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/13/us-cybersecurity-coreflood-idUSTRE73C7NQ20110413 "Reuters."#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "You may be chatting with a 'social bot'" If you've never had a chat with Eliza, you should go <#stdurl http://nlp-addiction.com/eliza/ "here"#> and try her out. Eliza was a computer program written in 1967, and although it was extremely primitive, it still fooled some people into thinking that they were communicating with a real person. Today's "chatbots" are far more sophisticated, and they're being used as "social bots." A computerized social bot can take on multiple personalities and post messages on many Facebook accounts, for commercial or political purposes. <#stdurl http://m.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2011/05/are-you-following-a-bot/8448/ "The Atlantic."#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=731 "16-Apr-11 News -- Killing of Italian activist exposes splits among Gaza militants"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110415 15-Apr-11 News -- Euro crisis grows as Greece approaches debt restructuring =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110415.head 15-Apr-11 News -- Euro crisis grows as Greece approaches debt restructuring =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110415.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110415.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110415.date 15-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110415.txt1 A Greek default could have serious consequences. =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110415.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Euro crisis grows as Greece approaches debt restructuring" Talk of restructuring Greece's debt (a form of default) has been increasing since two days ago when, as we reported, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble broke the politicians' code of silence and said that debt restructuring would probably be necessary. <#inc ww2010.pic g110414.jpg center "" "Greek government bond yield curve (Reuters)"#> The yield (interest rates) on Greece's 10 year bonds rose to a euro lifetime high of 13.61% on Thursday and, surprisingly, the yield on Greece's 2-year bond hit 18.4%, up almost a full percentage point on the day, according to <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/14/markets-bonds-euro-idUSLDE73D1W320110414 "Reuters."#> These interest rates are displayed on the graph above. The reason that this is surprising is because normally short-term bonds yield lower interest rates than longer-term bonds. If I'm going to lend you money for 10 years, I'll usually want to charge you a higher interest rate than if I'm only going to lend you money for 2 years. However, the situation with Greece is, shall we say, all screwed up. The talk is that Greece is going to give bond investors a 50% "haircut," meaning that if they invested $100,000 in bonds, then they'll lose $50,000. The reason that yields for 2-5 year bonds are much higher than the yields for 10 year bonds is because the rumors are that the greatest part of the haircut will be focused on the 2-5 year bonds, according to the article. Since last year's bailout of Greece, it's been obvious to anyone who could count that the bailout would only be enough to make a few debt payments, after which Greece would be in as much trouble as before. Politicians have a practice of lying about problems until an actual crisis forces them to admit the truth, and then they say, "Who saw that coming?" Thus, Olli Rehn, Europe's Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, said the following on Thursday, according to <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/14/greece-restructuring-rehn-idUSWEA472720110414 "Reuters:"#>
"I am aware of the public debate and recent public statements as regards debt sustainability in Greece. We do not see debt restructuring as an option. Instead we are engaged in a revised and updated debt sustainabilty analysis, which we will do with the IMF and present in due course."Ooooooooooooooooooooooh. He's going to do a revised and updated debt sustainabilty analysis. Gosh, I didn't know that he was going to do a new debt sustainabilty analysis. Well, that changes everything, doesn't it. Meanwhile, back in Washington, everything you hear coming from Washington is bullshit. I mean total crap. They're arguing over nothing. It's as if you had $100,000 in credit card debt, with $20,000 per year interest payments, and you argued with your wife whether next year you were only going to charge an extra $49,000 on your credit card, rather than $50,000 more. Nobody in Washington is saying anything about the existing debt and interest payments; all they're talking about is a tiny bit more or less ADDED ON to the existing debt. It's bad enough that it's happening, but we have to listen to politicians in Washington posture with one another and give us lectures that are total crap. One of the most bizarre stories that we hear all the time is that there was a federal budget surplus in the last 1990s because of clever agreements by Bill Clinton and the Republican Congress, and that the big federal deficit in the last decade was from the Afghan/Iraq wars and the Bush tax cuts. (See, for example, my 2007 article, <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e070916 ""Alan Greenspan blames the Republicans for the financial crisis.""#>) That makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Everyone seems to believe this, even though it couldn't possibly be true, since the deficit began to increase in 2000, but the wars didn't begin until 2002, and the tax cuts didn't begin until 2003. Here's a graph that appeared on the <#stdurl http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2005/02/overview-national-debt-budget-deficit.html "Calculated Risk blog"#> in 2005, showing government income and outlays, but not including Social Security: <#inc ww2010.pic g070916a.gif "center" "" "Income vs Outlay as %-age of GDP for Federal Government, 1971-2005, not including Social Security (Source: Calculated Risk)"#> This graph shows that the huge deficit, which was supposedly caused by the Iraq war, actually began in 2000, the last year of the Clinton administration, with the Nasdaq crash. The outlays caused by the Iraq war were not particularly large by the standards of the preceding three decades. What mattered was the collapse of tax revenues, starting in 2000. In fact, tax revenues depend on the state of the economy, and have almost nothing to do with anything else. Tax revenues went up in 2006 because of the credit bubble, and in 2009 they crashed dramatically. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e090804 ""US tax revenues fall sharply, the most since 1932.""#>) And there have been some news stories recently hinting that tax revenues are again falling. If that's true, then deficits this year will be much higher than politicians are predicting. And then there's the health care bill. As I've written several times, most recently in <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e101001 ""1-Oct-10 News -- McDonald's threatens end to worker health benefits,""#> until last year, by far the dumbest and most destructive economic policy enacted in Washington in my lifetime was the imposition, by President Richard Nixon's administration, of wage-price controls, to counter the national "emergency" represented by an inflation rate of about 4.5%. The controls program was an utter disaster. The inflation rate spiked up during the period of wage-price controls. It caused numerous shortages and mini-calamities, and did enormous damage until it was ended three years later. The health care bill, which is wage-price controls for doctors, hospitals and health services, is in the process of doing even greater damage to the American economy. I've heard one commentator after another complain that businesses, especially small businesses, don't understand the health care bill, don't know how to comply with it, are afraid to hire people because it might obligate them to enormous health care costs. Many commentators have pointed out that it was to the benefit of many small businesses to drop health care coverage altogether, and pay a fine of $2000 per employee, rather than pay the ill-defined cost of health care. None of this matters, though, to the politicians in Washington, in this case the Democrats. It's the same on Wall Street. They literally ALWAYS lie on CNBC and Bloomberg TV when they talk about price/earnings ratios (also called valuations). I've written about this before, even naming names in <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e101005 ""5-Oct-10 News -- Goldman Sachs's Cohen gives price/earnings fantasy""#> and <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e100824 ""24-Aug-10 News -- Ariel's Bobrinskoy gives price/earnings fantasy.""#> Are these people crooks or simply incompetent? I report, you decide. So what happens now? Maybe the Republicans and Democrats can get together and do a revised and updated debt sustainabilty analysis. That should fix everything. Jerks. And over in Europe, the situation in Greece has the potential of being a major crisis, even bigger than the crisis that followed the Lehman Brothers bank collapse in 2008. If Greece imposes a 50% "haircut," then banks around Europe will lose a great deal of money, and investors will assume that Ireland, Portugal and Spain will default as well. Things are moving more quickly now. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=723 "15-Apr-11 News -- Euro crisis grows as Greece approaches debt restructuring"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110414 14-Apr-11 News -- Hillary Clinton acts to kill unilateral endorsement of Palestinian state =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110414.head 14-Apr-11 News -- Hillary Clinton acts to kill unilateral endorsement of Palestinian state =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110414.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110414.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110414.date 14-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110414.txt1 Air strikes by U.S. fighter jets continue in Libya =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110414.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Hillary Clinton acts to kill unilateral endorsement of Palestinian state" With Palestinian efforts going full steam ahead to get United Nations recognition of a Palestinian state in September, the Obama administration is attempting to refocus world attention on a negotiated agreement between Israel and the Palestinians, according to <#stdurl http://www.npr.org/2011/04/13/135382799/u-s-attempting-to-reignite-israel-palestinian-talks "NPR."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110413.jpg center "" "Hillary Clinton speaking at the U.S.-Islamic World Forum in Washington"#> Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was supposed to have attended a meeting of the <#stdurl http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2010/sg2162.doc.htm "Middle East Quartet"#> (United Nations, Russian Federation, United States, European Union), which issued a statement in September, 2010, calling for recognition of a Palestinian state based on pre-1967 borders by September, 2011. However, Clinton stayed away from the meeting, and instead announced that President Barack Obama would be giving a speech soon on the Mideast and North Africa, and to relaunch the "peace process." Speaking to the U.S.-Islamic World Forum, she indicated that U.N. recognition would be inappropriate in the current climate, where the entire region is consumed by uprisings:
"The status quo between Palestinians and Israelis is no more sustainable than the political systems that have crumbled in recent months. Neither Israel’s future as a Jewish democratic state or the legitimate aspirations of Palestinians can be secured without a negotiated two-state solution. And while it is a truism that only the parties themselves can make the hard choices necessary for peace, there is no substitute for continued active American leadership. And the president and I are committed to that."The so-called "peace process" has been dead as a doornail for some time. The Palestinians blame the collapse of the peace process on the refusal of the Israelis to stop building housing settlements in east Jerusalem, and the Israelis refuse to stop building the settlements until a peace agreement is reached. Clinton's speech was well received, according to the <#stdurl http://arabnews.com/middleeast/article358259.ece "Arab News,"#> and Muslim leaders at the meeting said that they want Washington to take a more active role in seeking enduring solutions to the Middle East problems. Speaking personally, I find this development astonishing. It's like a broken record, where the same words are used over and over. As I've written many times, <#hreftext ww2010.i.may01 "starting in 2003,"#> when President George Bush announced his "Mideast Roadmap to Peace," a Mideast peace is impossible, since Arabs and Jews will be refighting the genocidal 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. There have been three wars since then -- the war between Israelis and Hizbollah, fought largely on Lebanon's soil in 2006; the war between Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah in Gaza in 2008, that led to Hamas control of Gaza; and Operation Cast Lead, the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza early in 2009. So now, apparently President Obama is going to be putting forth a new "Roadmap to Peace," which I assume will sound very much like the old one. At the same time, tension is growing on the border between Gaza and Israel. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110409 ""9-Apr-11 News -- Gaza violence escalates after anti-tank missile strikes school bus.""#>) The realities on the ground are likely to be much more important than anything that the politicians do. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Czech president 'steals' expensive pen at ceremony" For today's entertainment, here's a <#stdurl http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFPH8rNEQd4&feature=player_embedded "video"#> of Czech president Vaclav Klaus stealing an expensive pen during an official ceremony in Chile. This video has gone viral.
[youtube 8j36Erxd5rc nolink]
More than 5,000 Czechs have signed up to a Facebook campaign to mail pens to the president, according to <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5jcZdJ_c-301M4sNi244vuNFMw9ow?docId=6552952 "Associated Press."#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Air strikes by U.S. fighter jets continue in Libya Air strikes in Libya by U.S. fighter jets were supposed to have ended when the U.S. turned command of Libya operations over to Nato on April 4. But now it turns out that U.S. fighter jets have continued to conduct strikes on Libya's air defenses. <#stdurl http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE73C0M520110413 "Reuters"#> =// .h4 Increasingly bitter Sunni/Shia divide in Bahrain Sunni Muslims and Shia Muslims used to get along pretty well in Bahrain, but the uprising and subsequent violent crackdown by security police has created an increasingly bitter sectarian divide between the two. <#stdurl http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2064934,00.html "Time"#> =// .h4 Public unrest in Iran over 10-fold increase in natural gas prices Public unrest in Iran is increasing over the 10-fold increase in the price of natural gas since December, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad cut off state subsidies. In addition to natural gas, prices have risen on fuel, electricity and bread. <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in-iran-anger-builds-over-natural-gas-price-hikes/2011/04/12/AFoE5DRD_story.html "Washington Post"#> =// .h4 Hillary Clinton angry because State Dept. workers can't have iPads Hillary Clinton got angry when she was sitting on an airplane next to someone from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) who was using an iPad. It seems that USAID workers are allowed to have iPads, while people in the State Department are not. <#stdurl http://www.fiercegovernmentit.com/story/usaid-waives-fisma-ipads/2011-04-13?utm_medium=nl&utm_source=internal "Fierce Government IT"#> =// .h4 RoboEarth -- a world wide web for robots If it takes you a month to learn a new skill, and your friend wants to learn the same skill, then it will probably take him a month also. But that's not true of intelligent robots: If one takes a month to learn a new skill, it can simply upload the skill to another robot in a few seconds. That's the idea behind RoboEarth, which is an online database of knowledge and skills that robots can exchange with one another. The project is sponsed by the European Union's Cognitive Systems and Robotics Initiative. <#stdurl http://www.roboearth.org/ "RoboEarth"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=722 "14-Apr-11 News -- Hillary Clinton acts to kill unilateral endorsement of Palestinian state"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110413 13-Apr-11 News -- White House report on terror strains US-Pakistan relations to breaking point =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110413.head 13-Apr-11 News -- White House report on terror strains US-Pakistan relations to breaking point =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110413.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110413.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110413.date 13-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110413.txt1 Tony Blair to endorse a Palestinian state =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110413.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "White House report on terror strains US-Pakistan relations to breaking point" A meeting between CIA Director Leon Panetta and Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) head Lt. Gen. Ahmad Shuja Pasha in Washington was cut short on Monday, apparently over disagreements about joint US-Pakistan cooperation on the war on terror within Pakistan itself. <#inc ww2010.pic g110412.jpg center "" "Raymond Davis in custody in Lahore"#> Pasha has demanded a sharp reduction in the number of US Special Forces operatives in Pakistan, as well as a halt to drone strikes against militants, according to <#stdurl http://www.rferl.org/content/intel_disagreements_cast_pall_over_us-pakistan_relations/3555196.html "RFERL."#> However, <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/pakistans-request-for-fewer-us-trainers-reflects-fear-of-spying "Reuters"#> quotes a senior Pakistani intelligence official as saying that the demands might be more about appearances than genuine pique, since many Pakistanis object to foreign troops on Pakistani soil. These demands come after a major scandal involving Raymond Davis, an America CIA security contractor. On January 27, 2011, he shot and killed two Pakistani motorcyclists while waiting for a traffic light in Lahore. He said that they had been following him, and that they were intending to kill him. The Pakistanis wanted to prosecute Davis for murder, but the Obama administration demanded that he be returned to the U.S. under diplomatic immunity. Finally, he was released to the U.S., after the relatives of the two victims received $2.3 million in "blood money," according to <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/03/17/pakistan.us.shooting "CNN."#> The Raymond Davis affair has frightened and infuriated the Pakistanis for two reasons. First, the public had been demanding a trial, and many believe that Davis has gotten away with the murder of two Pakistanis. And second, the existence of one covert CIA operative on Pakistani soil indicates that there may be many more of them, spying on Pakistan for the United States. Pakistan's nuclear capability is very sensitive, since many Pakistanis believe that American policy is to some how destroy Pakistan's nuclear capability, according to the <#stdurl http://tribune.com.pk/story/148217/pakistan-us-and-their-intelligence-agencies/ "Express Tribune (Pakistan)."#> Then on March 17, a missile strike from a US drone killed 39 people, including civilians, according to <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jVU70o7Thjih5Xpq9QrD7k7NnK8w?docId=CNG.d6cfecdd02c9dc0e1843bd3599023777.141 "AFP,"#> once again infuriating the Pakistani public. The last straw came last week. The White House issued a bi-annual report on terrorism, harshly condemning Pakistan. The report says that Pakistan has "no clear path" to defeating the Taliban and al-Qaeda along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan, according to <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/Pakistan-Rejects-White-House-Report-on-Terror-119417739.html "VOA."#> The White House report accuses Pakistan of not following through when targeting militant strongholds. The report claims the Pakistani military takes territory ,but falls short of completely securing the area, creating a power vacuum that allows the insurgents to return when the army moves out. The result is the US-Pakistani relations are facing the biggest crisis since 9/11, according to the <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/12/us-pakistan-relations-crisis "Guardian."#> Pakistan's foreign secretary, Salman Bashir, is quoted as saying, "We will not accept the stigmatising of Pakistan. We need to re-examine the fundamentals of our relationship with the United States to get greater clarity. There has been a pause. Now we must start again." The article quotes Rehman Malik, Pakistan's interior minister, as saying that Americans should stop blaming others for their difficulties in Afghanistan, where the situation has worsened in the last year. Pakistan and the United States are bound together in a deadly embrace. The U.S. needs Pakistan as an ally on the war on terror. Pakistan's economy has been devasted by the financial crisis and by massive floods last year, and Pakistan depends on the U.S. as its largest aid-giver. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Pakistan and India are headed for a major ethnic and religious war, refighting the genocidal war between Muslims and Hindus that followed Partition, the 1947 partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into Pakistan and India. Since India is a close ally of the United States and Russia, and Pakistan is a close ally of China and Saudi Arabia, the war between Pakistan and India will be a significant component of the coming Clash of Civilizations world war. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Deposed president Laurent Gbagbo arrested in Ivory Coast" Deposed president Laurent Gbagbo was arrested on Monday and taken into custody in Ivory Coast. Alassane Ouattara had been declared the winner of last November's presidential election, but Gbagbo refused to step down. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110307 ""7-Mar-11 News -- Escalating violence in Ivory Coast leads to enlarged U.N. peacekeeping force.""#>) According to a report that I heard on al-Jazeera on Monday, the arrest was actually accomplished by French armed forces. But credit for the arrest was given to Ouattara's "Republican Forces," so that Ouattara wouldn't be called a tool of France. Gbagbo has been taken to an undisclosed location, and is under the protection of the United Nations, according to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-12/ivory-coast-violence-damps-prospect-of-quick-recovery-after-civil-war-ends.html "Bloomberg."#> Since the arrest, there has been gunfire and looting. Some of the fighting appears to be Gbagbo's militias firing on Ouattara's troops, dashing hopes of a quick peace. The hope is now that with United Nations humanitarian aid, the violence will tamp down, and there will be peace in the land. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, that's not what's going to happen. When a country goes through a civil war, there are aften peace agreements and periods of relative calm separating periods of violence, with each violent period worse than the previous one. The war doesn't end until there's a massive genocidal climax that's so horrible that all the survivors vow that they'll never let anything like it happen again. I dicussed these concepts frequently in the context of the Sri Lanka civil war. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e090517 ""Tamil Tigers surrender, ending the Sri Lanka crisis civil war.""#>) As I described, the climax is comparable to the surrender of the Germans and Japanese in 1945, following slaughter on the beaches of Normandy and the firebombing and nuking of German and Japanese cities. Gbagbo's arrest is nowhere close to a crisis war climax. There's still a great deal of genocidal energy remaining in both sides of the Ivory Coast civil war, and we can expect violence to continue until a real climax is reached. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Tony Blair to endorse a Palestinian state The momentum for the unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state will take a major step forward, when Mideast peace envoy and former British prime minister Tony Blair endorses a Palestinian state, in a report to Brussels. <#stdurl http://www.theaustralian.com.au/tony-blair-to-endorse-palestinian-state-in-brussels-report/story-fn7ycml4-1226038287204 "Australian"#> =// .h4 White House sends personal letter to King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia As we've reported, relations between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia have worsened precipitously because of the Obama adminstration's rapid abandonment of long-time ally Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, and after the administration criticized the deployment of Saudi troops to quell the Bahrain uprising. On Tuesday, a personal letter from President Obama was sent to Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah, in an attempt to repair the relationship. <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2011/04/08/AF5KD9SD_story.html "Washington Post"#> =// .h4 Granddaughter of Benito Mussolini criticizes Carla Bruni As we've reported in past days, France is closing its border to Italy to keep thousands of Tunisian migrants who flee to Italy from crossing the border into France. Alessandra Mussolini, the granddaughter of Benito Mussolini, is furiously criticizing Carla Bruni-Sarkozy, the wife of French president Nicolas Sarkozy, for not talking her husband into keeping the borders open. (One can just imagine that conversation. Carla to Nicolas: "I won't have sex with you unless you open the borders to Italy.") <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/8432553/Benito-Mussolinis-granddaughter-criticises-Carla-Bruni.html "Telegraph"#> =// .h4 The best computer software for learning a foreign language Reviews of the best computer software for learning a foreign language, RocketLanguages, Rosetta Stone, Tell Me More, and others. <#stdurl http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2381904,00.asp "PC Magazine"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=721 "13-Apr-11 News -- White House report on terror strains US-Pakistan relations to breaking point"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110412 12-Apr-11 News -- Italy fights EU over Tunisian migrants =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110412.head 12-Apr-11 News -- Italy fights EU over Tunisian migrants =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110412.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110412.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110412.date 12-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110412.txt1 Libya's rebels reject African Union cease fire plan =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110412.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Italy fights EU over Tunisian migrants" Germany is already at odds with the "Club Med" nations, since Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy are considered to be profligate spenders requiring bailouts, in contrast to the disciplined savers in Germany. And the anger is growing anyway, because it's becoming increasingly clear that Greece needs a new bailout (see below), and the Germans are absolutely bitterly opposed to giving them another euro. <#inc ww2010.pic g110411.jpg right "" "Migrants protesting in a temporary shelter on Lampedusa Island (AFP)"#> Now there's a new bitter dispute over immigrants from northern Africa. Some 25,000 people, mostly from Tunisia, have arrived on the Italian island of Lampedusa, usually in overloaded fishing boats. Recently, migrants from Libya have been arriving as well. Their purpose is to gain entrance to Italy and the European Union to seek jobs, according to <#stdurl http://af.reuters.com/article/libyaNews/idAFLDE73A12U20110411 "Reuters."#> The problem has overwhelmed Italy's resources, and so the Italians requested help from the EU and from neighboring countries. When the EU refused, Italy decided to use a "dirty trick," according to <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,756254,00.html#ref=nlint "Der Spiegel."#> Under the EU treaties, Italy is allowed to issue travel visas to visitors, allowing them to travel freely around large parts of Europe. And so Italy plans to issue 25,000 travel visas to the 25,000 migrants This has infuriated the Germans, the French, and other EU neighbors. France feels particularly vulnerable, since it already has a large Tunisian community, and many of the migrants will be trying to join their relatives. Thus, France has already announced that it will shut down its border with Italy, according to <#stdurl http://www.euractiv.com/en/global-europe/france-prepares-shut-border-italy-news-503909 "EurActiv."#> The French authorities are already sending back some migrants who try to cross its border from Italy. The German interior minister simply said that the migrants are "Italy's problem," according to <#stdurl http://www.thelocal.de/politics/20110411-34307.html "The Local (Germany)."#> "Italy must sort out its refugee problem itself," he said. To that, Roberto Maroni, Italy's interior minister, said on Monday that his country had to "consider if it is still worth being part of the EU," according to <#stdurl http://euobserver.com/9/32155 "EU Observer."#> "It's fine when Italy contributes to euro bail-outs, to wars, but on this very specific issue of helping us out, EU states are absolutely not willing to show solidarity." It's fun to watch this war of words, but this is clearly a battle that's only going to grow, since the surge of migrants from north Africa is only going to grow. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Germans: Greece might need another bailout" Ever since Greece was given a $158 billion bailout last May, it's been perfectly obvious to anyone who can count that the bailout would allow Greece to postpone default by making some debt payments, but would not solve any structural problems, and that default was going to come anyway. Still, the norm today among politicians, analysts and journalists is to lie, and so the official word by all European officials has always been that Greece's austerity program would allow it to escape default. So it was a surprise when German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble broke the code of silence this weekend, and suggested that Greece might need another bailout, or else it would have to restructure its debt (which is equivalent to a default). According to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-10/germany-warns-on-greek-debt-defying-efforts-to-snuff-out-crisis.html "Bloomberg,"#> Schaeuble's statement conflicts with official assertions that Greece is on the right track. However, <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/11/us-greece-restructuring-idUSTRE73A4AI20110411 "Reuters"#> reports that officials within the Greek government are increasingly talking about the best ways to default. Options include delaying payments or reducing interest payments. However, any kind of default by Greece could cause a chain reaction. Many countries' banks are heavily invested in Greek bonds, and so a Greek default would risk pushing banks in other countries into bankruptcy. And all this comes at a time when Portugal has requested a $114 billion bailout, after spending months saying that no bailout would ever be needed. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110407 ""7-Apr-11 News -- Portugal requests bailout after disastrous bond auction.""#>) And it also comes at a time when the people of Iceland voted to reject an agreement to repay €4 billion, as we reported yesterday. According to EuroIntelligence, "This is the second No vote on the Icesave scheme, and has met with severe disappointment by British and Dutch ministers. For us in the eurozone, the interesting question is whether the popular uprising in Iceland might be replicated in the eurozone, especially in Ireland, where a majority of the population wants the bank bondholders to share the costs." Like the migrant problem, the debt problem is only going to grow, and positions are hardening all around. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Europe is due for another major war. People who find this statement surprising should recall that Europe has had wars regularly for millennia, the latest one having ended only a short 66 years ago. When the Treaty of Rome was signed in 1957, it was with the intention of creating a "European project" that would guarantee that there would never be another European war. But as the the migrant problem grows and the debt problem grows, we can see that nothing has really changed, and that Europe is experiencing the same problems that it always has. All that's needed is for something to light the fuse. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Libya's rebels reject African Union cease fire plan" The African Union presented a cease fire plan on Monday and proclaimed that Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi had accepted it. But when the AU officials traveled to Benghazi to sell the plan to the rebels, it was soundly rejected, because it didn't require Gaddafi to step down immediately. The <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8443982/Libya-opposition-rejects-African-Union-peace-plan.html "Telegraph"#> quotes Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the Nato secretary general, as saying that three conditions must be met: "It must be credible, including an effective protection of the civilian population. It must be supervised and controlled effectively. Finally, it must facilitate a political process aiming to implement the necessary political reforms to satisfy the legitimate demands of the Libyan population." So the situation is this: Gaddafi will never voluntarily step down, and the rebels will never agree to a ceasefire until Gaddafi steps down. There doesn't seem to be an end in sight. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "San Francisco to Paris in 2 minutes - by way of the Northern Lights" For today's entertainment, we have a mind-blowing <#stdurl http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8j36Erxd5rc "video"#> by someone who shot a photo every two miles or so between take-off in San Francisco and landing in Paris. Part of the show is some shots of the Northern Lights.[youtube 8j36Erxd5rc nolink]
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=720 "12-Apr-11 News -- Italy fights EU over Tunisian migrants"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110411 11-Apr-11 News -- Tiny Iceland rejects demands of the European Union bullies =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110411.head 11-Apr-11 News -- Tiny Iceland rejects demands of the European Union bullies =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110411.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110411.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110411.date 11-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110411.txt1 Europe's financial crisis grows =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110411.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Tiny Iceland rejects demands of the European Union bullies" On Saturday, Icelanders voted 60% to 40% in favor of rejecting a negotiated agreement to repay the UK and Dutch governments for losses incurred by citizens of those countries who had invested in Iceland's "Icesave" program, according to <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-04-10/icelanders-reject-depositor-bill-forcing-year-long-court-fight.html "Bloomberg."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110410.jpg right "" "Reykjavik, Iceland"#> Many Europeans, especially in Britain and Netherlands, had deposited their savings into Iceland's bank in an "Icesave" program that provided interest rates of well over 10%. When Iceland defaulted, these depositors lost their money, and Iceland was forced to agree to reimburse the depositors. During the halcyon days of the credit bubble, Iceland was playing games with the international currency carry trade In February, 2006, there was a major international currency crisis triggered by Iceland's policies. I wrote about this at the time in <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e060227 ""Sudden collapse of Iceland krona portends bursting of 'carry trade' bubble.""#> The crisis occurred in conjunction with an announcement by Fitch Ratings that it was revising the outlook for Iceland's banks from "stable" to "negative." According to Fitch, the new ratings "[took] into account Iceland's macro-prudential risks, including rising inflation, rapid credit growth, buoyant asset prices, a steep current account deficit and escalating external indebtedness And so, I knew that Iceland's banks were in trouble. Fitch Ratings knew that Iceland's banks were in trouble. That's why this whole situation is so pathetic. Gordon Brown had been Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer from 1997 to 2007, which supposedly meant that he was an expert in international finance. Then he became Prime Minister in June, 2007. So when Iceland's carry trade bubble collapsed late in 2008, Brown feigned surprise, saying that he had no idea that would happen -- even though Fitch Ratings knew, and I knew and had written about it several times. In fact, Gordon Brown may have been the only person who didn't know. It was clear that the British and Dutch governments were going to screw Iceland as much as they could. In my August 2009 report, <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e090815 ""Iceland begs for mercy as Europe turns the screws,""#> I listed several of the indignities that Iceland was suffering:"With Bahrain in the midst of a violent uprising, many Pakistanis are being targeted by protesters who see them as collaborators of the unpopular regime. Most of the Pakistanis targeted are labourers or other civilians in low-paying jobs. Although the Pakistan Embassy in Bahrain is providing shelter to about 40 Pakistani families, the vast majority are helpless and defenceless. Much of the blame has to be directed at the Pakistan government. Even before the uprising broke out, many Pakistanis were serving in the Bahraini police force. Since the troubles began, Bahrain has been recruiting mercenaries from Pakistan to bolster its police and armed forces. We have allowed them to do so unhindered. Bahrainis are understandably enraged that foreigners are being employed to oppress them and so are lashing out at all Pakistanis. The government needs to immediately ban any more Pakistanis from being recruited in Bahrain’s security forces. Additionally, it is the job of the embassy and the government to make sure its citizens are safe in a foreign country. As soon as the situation turned ugly, all Pakistanis should have been evacuated from Bahrain, just as the US had done with its citizens in Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries that are in the throes of revolution. By allowing mercenaries to serve the Bahraini monarchy, Pakistan has dangerously taken sides in what may turn out to be a geopolitical, ethnic nightmare. The population of Bahrain is overwhelmingly Shia while the ruling family is Sunni. Iran is naturally supporting the protesters while Saudi Arabia is on the side of the king. Thanks to the mercenaries, the impression will now stick that Pakistan is on the anti-Iran side. This will only hurt relations with Iran, with whom we hope to reach a deal on a gas pipeline. It is time to put potential new alliances on par with existing ones. The government needs to cite its own law-and-order problems at home and a desire to remain neutral in a delicate part of the world. Above all, its foremost priority should be to safely bring home Pakistani citizens."According to an analysis by the <#stdurl http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5177.htm "Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI),"#> mercenaries are being recruited by the Fauji Foundation, which was set up in 1954 to help Pakistani ex-servicemen and their families:
In March 2011, the Overseas Employment Services (OES) of the Fauji Foundation placed advertisements in Urdu-language Pakistani newspapers to "immediately" recruit Pakistani youth for the Bahrain National Guard. On such advertisement specified recruitments for the following job categories: "officers (majors), Pakistan Military Academy drill instructors, anti-riot instructors, security guards, and military police as well as cooks and mess waiters…" A Pakistani newspaper report noted: "The requirement for anti-riot instructors was NCOs (non-commissioned officers) from the Sindh Rangers or officers of an equivalent rank from the Elite Police Force."The report concludes that the Fauji Foundation is playing the lead role of recruiting security men from Pakistan to confront the protesters in Bahrain. The flow of Pakistani military mercenaries into the Arabian Peninsula is consistent with the expectation that China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be opposed to America, India and Russia in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=718 "10-Apr-11 News -- In dramatic reversal, Germany agrees to supply ground troops to Libya"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110409 9-Apr-11 News -- Gaza violence escalates after anti-tank missile strikes school bus =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110409.head 9-Apr-11 News -- Gaza violence escalates after anti-tank missile strikes school bus =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110409.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110409.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110409.date 9-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110409.txt1 Debka: Breach between U.S. and Saudi Arabia deepens =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110409.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Gaza violence escalates after anti-tank missile strikes school bus" The chances of a new Israeli war with Gaza are much higher today, a day after a Kornet anti-tank missile launched from Gaza struck a school bus southen Israel, injuring the driver and critically injuring a 16 year old boy. Hamas claimed responsibility. <#inc ww2010.pic g110408.jpg right "" "Benjamin Netanyahu"#> In the past, militants in Gaza have been launching into southern Israel Qassam missiles, which are simple home-made missles with no guidance system. These missiles landed pretty much at random locations, and only occasionally harmed someone. What makes the school bus attack different is that the Kornet missile does have a guidance system, and it was apparently deliberately aimed at a location where the bus would be parked. The missile attack was followed by numerous rocket and mortar attacks. This attack has infuriated the Israelis. President Shimon Peres said that "Gaza has become a terrorist state," according to a statement by Israel's <#stdurl http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Government/Communiques/2011/President_Peres_meets_Security_Council_ambassadors_7-Apr-2011.htm "Ministry of Foreign Affairs."#> Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the attack on children "crossed a line" and warned that "whoever tries to harm and murder children will pay with their life," according to the <#stdurl http://www.newser.com/article/d9mfjqog0/fighting-surges-in-gaza-as-israeli-military-responds-to-rocket-attack-on-bus-14-die-in-2-days.html "Associated Press."#> The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stepped up their air attacks on Gaza on Friday, killing nine Palestinians, including some civilians, according to <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/08/us-palestinians-israel-violence-idUSTRE7363AS20110408 "Reuters."#> Israel promised to teach Hamas a lesson for the attack on the school bus on Thursday. The violence is increasing to levels not seen since Cast Lead, the three-week war between Israel and Gaza that ended in early 2009. It is widely feared that a new "Cast Lead II" war is quickly approaching. Each side claims that it doesn't want war, but each side has to respond to the attacks by the other side, and full scale war may be the result. Hizbollah would join Hamas in a war against Israel, and has a 20,000 missile arsenal ready to be used, according to a Wikileaks cable quoted by the <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=215724 "Jerusalem Post."#> Because of the widespread international hostility directed at Israel, it's possible that Hamas sees increased violence with Israel as a no-lose proposition, since Israel will be blamed, no matter what happens. The violence occurs at the same time that a diplomatic track is being pursued by the Palestinians to gain U.N. recognition of a Palestinian state by September. The Palestinians have completely given up on the "Mideast peace process," which has been dead as a doornail for some time anyway, and they blame Israel's policy of building settlements in east Jerusalem for the collapse of the peace process. Thus, they've been taking a number of steps to prepare for statehood. The plan took a big step forward this week, when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a report praising Palestinian fiscal reform, and declaring that Palestinian financial institutions are ready for statehood, according to <#stdurl http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=375942 "Ma'an News."#> An even more important issue is reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah, a requirement for a Palestinian state. Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa announced Wednesday that he will help Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and that the Arab League will help mediate a reconciliation, according to <#stdurl http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/04/07/144562.html "Al-Arabiya."#> According to an analysis by <#stdurl http://www.debka.com/article/20831/ "Debka"#>, Egypt would help with reconciliation as follows:
"[T]he new Egyptian leaders are willing to help negotiate Hamas' reconciliation with Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah on the following basis: Hamas would accept the two-state solution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict but Egypt would not press for the second part of the formula endorsed by Washington and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, namely that "the two states live alongside each other in peace and security." This amended formula would leave Hamas and the other radical Palestinian organizations free to continue their violent campaign of "resistance" against Israel while making peace with the rival Fatah and gaining a Palestinian state on the West Bank. These days, Hamas is sure it is on a win-win course and has little to fear from stepping up its war on Israel until it gets what it wants."This would be an ambitious path for Hamas, but it's far from clear that it can be achieved. A spokesman for Hamas is quoted by the <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=215228 "Jerusalem Post"#> as saying that Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas does not actually want reconciliation. According to an analysis by <#stdurl http://www.middleeastmonitor.org.uk/articles/middle-east/2224-palestinian-reconciliation-is-there-light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel "Mideast Monitor,"#> Abbas wants to quickly reach agreement on a timetable for holding parliamentary and presidential elections, while Hamas is reluctant to risk its control of Gaza. The same factors that drove Hamas and Fatah to war in 2007 still exist, and it's just as likely as the two factions will have another war as reconcile. And it's not clear what the outcome will be if the United Nations is asked to create a Palestinian state which may immediately be at war with Israel. September is still a very long way off. In the meantime, violence between Israel and Gaza is increasing, and there may be a war long before the United Nations has an opportunity to vote on any proposal. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Debka: Breach between U.S. and Saudi Arabia deepens" According to an analysis in the <#stdurl http://debka.com/ "Debka"#> subscriber-only newsletter, forwarded to me by a subscriber, the recent visit by US Defense Secretary Robert Gates to Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah failed in its attempt to improve Saudi-US relations. What triggered the visit was word that the Saudis were cancelling a $60 billion order for American military hardware, and that they plan to shop elsewhere for lower prices, possibly from China or Russia. Relations between King Abdullah and President Barack Obama have been cold ever since Obama turned his back on former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak. Abdullah was furious that Obama had thrown Mubarak under the bus so quickly, and has not forgiven him yet. According to the newsletter:
"Abdullah was harshly critical of the US presidential advisers' counsel to the White House to withhold endorsement from Saudi military intervention in Bahrain. As long as Washington hopes to topple the Bahraini and Saudi kingdoms by promoting pro-democracy revolutions on the Egyptian pattern, why would you expect the Persian Gulf rulers to support America and treat it as an ally? he asked the US defense secretary. ... King Abdullah explained that once he had realized the Obama administration had no intention of acting in consideration of the security interests of the Saudi and Gulf nations, he resolved to take their affairs into his own hands. He said he now feels free to do what he thinks necessary to advance those interests without resorting to - or even consulting with - Washington. Gates confirmed that the US did have "evidence" of Iranian meddling in the turmoil besetting Bahrain and other Middle Eastern countries, refuting the Obama administration's public statements denying Iran was a primary factor. But this admission most probably came too late. Abdullah has set his course on a new policy that distances the kingdom from the United States. Even though Gates disagrees with Obama on the Middle East - and especially on military intervention in Libya - the Saudi monarch knows that his time is almost up at the Pentagon."These events are consistent with the expectation that China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be opposed to America, India and Russia in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Egyptian protesters march on Israeli Embassy There was another mass demonstration by tens of thousands of protesters in Tahrir Square in Cairo, Egypt, on Friday, after midday prayers, demanding that ousted president Hosni Mubarak and his family be put on trial for alleged corruption. About 2,000 protesters broke away from the mass demonstration and marched to the Israeli Embassey to protest Israeli air strikes on the Gaza Strip. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gHRq05JJIVorpVQ7RWpadRT643lQ?docId=cb7bf6de68e244a1be0384e8e90e68b5 "AP"#> =// .h4 Portugal will have to accept harsh terms to get EU bailout Now that Portugal has asked for a bailout, its troubles are far from over. European Union finance ministers will approve the bailout, but only if Portugal's political parties agree to a package of severe austerity measures and reforms. The austerity measures to be demanded are much harsher than those proposed last month by prime minister Jose Socrates, but his milder measures were rejected, leading to a collapse of the government. Portugal has new elections planned for June, and it's far from clear that the candidates will be able to agree to accept the EU's harsh austerity measures in the middle of an election. <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/eu-to-drive-hard-bargain-in-bailout-of-portugal-2265484.html "Independent"#> =// .h4 New poisoned milk scandal in China kills 3 children In 2008, China experienced a food disaster almost beyond comprehension. Chinese manufacturers of milk products added a chemical call melamine to their products. Melamine is poison, but it gives the appearance of high protein levels to government food quality inspectors. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e081117 ""A generational view of China's growing melamine food disaster.""#>) Now there's a new scandal, where three children have died from drinking tainted milk with nitrates, once again to give the appearance of high protein levels. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/east-pacific/Latest-Tainted-Milk-Fatalities-Rock-China119467779.html "VOA"#> =// .h4 South Korean tech companies pick up Japan's slack Japan's nuclear crisis is a boon for South Korea's high tech companies. Japan's position as supplier of devices such as memory chips or LCD screens has been put into question by the nuclear disaster, and South Korean firms are planning to take up the slack. <#stdurl http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2011/0408/South-Korean-tech-companies-pick-up-slack-left-by-Japan "CS Monitor"#> =// .h4 France prepares to shut down border with Italy Thousands of migrants have been fleeing Tunisia and landing in Italy, hoping to relocate to Europe. France is preparing to shut down its border with Italy, in order to prevent the migrants from entering France. <#stdurl http://www.euractiv.com/en/global-europe/france-prepares-shut-border-italy-news-503909 "EurActiv"#> =// .h4 Another bloody Friday in Syria as 17 protesters are killed It was another bloody Friday in Syria. Anti-government protests broke out in several locations across the country. Witnesses said that Syrian security forces killed at least 17 protesters. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/At-Least-3-Dead-in-Anti-Government-Protests-Across-Syria-119472679.html "VOA"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=716 "9-Apr-11 News -- Gaza violence escalates after anti-tank missile strikes school bus"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110408 8-Apr-11 News -- Egypt poll: Arab League's Amr Moussa in lead for presidency =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110408.head 8-Apr-11 News -- Egypt poll: Arab League's Amr Moussa in lead for presidency =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110408.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110408.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110408.date 8-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110408.txt1 IMF says that Palestinians are ready for statehood =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110408.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Welcome to new web site readers" For reasons that are unknown to me, the traffic to this web site is suddenly up 30% in the last couple of days. Whatever the reason, let me welcome the new visitors. If you have any questions, send me a comment and I'll get back to you, though it may take a while. Also, feel free to post in the Generational Dynamics forum, where the discussion in the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2&p=7624#p7621 "Financial Topics"#> thread is particularly heated and informative. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Egypt poll: Arab League's Amr Moussa in lead for presidency" A telephone poll of a random sample of 615 Egyptians, conducted from March 9-20, indicates that there's very little reason for the West to be concerned about Egypt becoming a hardline Muslim country. In particular, there's absolutely nothing that supports any concerns that Egypt will become "another Iran." <#inc ww2010.pic g110407.jpg center "" "Amr Moussa (Al Arabiya)"#> The poll by the New York based <#stdurl http://www.ipacademy.org/news/general-announcement/226-ipi-polls-new-mood-in-egypt.html "International Peace Institute"#> surveys attitudes of Egyptians as they approach elections in the fall. Generally, Egyptians are optimistic, and believe that the country is moving in the right direction. We're going to look at the responses to two questions.
Q4. In your view, what is the biggest problem facing Egypt?
Economy / Inflation/ unemployment/ poverty/oil price/
homelessness ............................................. 35%
Demonstrations / strikes/ unrest/ riots /
govt has no control ...................................... 17%
Corruption / bribery / dishonest officials ................... 8%
Women’s rights and freedoms compromised ...................... 7%
Crimes/ violence/ insecurity ................................. 5%
Formation of new government/ absence of democracy/
elections ................................................ 5%
Terrorism/ no peace/ insurgency .............................. 3%
Social justice / Growing inequality in society ............... 2%
Freedom / free speech ........................................ 2%
Water ........................................................ 1%
Schools / Bad education/ educated people emigrate ............ 1%
Rule of law/ injustice/ frauds/ judiciary not independent .... 1%
Healthcare ................................................... 1%
Relations with Israel/Palestine/Israeli-Palestinian
relations/peace process .................................. 0%
Roads/ transportation ........................................ 0%
Other ........................................................ 7%
Don’t know /refused .......................................... 6%
This is interesting because this list of problems is not much
different from a list produced by people in Europe or America. The
economy and terrorism are high on the list of concerns, and relations
with Israel and the Palestinians are so far down the list, they're
almost irrelevant.
As I reported several days ago, Egypt's youth uprising has split the
Muslim Brotherhood along generational lines. But as we described,
even in that case, the major issue dividing the generations is not
Israel, but corruption and honesty in government, number 3 on the
above list. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110404 ""4-Apr-11 News
-- Egypt's 'Save the Revolution' movement splits Muslim
Brotherhood.""#>)
Q17. If the Presidential election was held today, who would you vote for?The poll is led by Amr Moussa, the secretary-general of the Arab League. The photo of Moussa at the top is from <#stdurl http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/02/23/138819.html "Al-Arabiya,"#> at a time several weeks ago, when the Arab League was voting unanimously to support the American and European intervention in Libya. In early March, when Moussa declared his candidacy for Egypt's presidency, he declared his vision to rebuild Egypt into a fully functioning democracy. According to <#stdurl http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/7527.aspx "Al-Ahram"#>:Amr Moussa ...................... 37% Marshal Mohamed Tantawi ......... 16% Ahmed Zewail .................... 12% Essam Sharaf .................... 7% Omar Suleiman ................... 5% Wael Ghoneim .................... 2% Mohammed el Baradei ............. 2% Ayman Nour ...................... 1% Other ........................... 0% Won’t vote ...................... 0% Refused ......................... 5% Don’t know ...................... 14%
"In both meetings, held in the shadow of the attacks on Copts in the village of Soul, and in the Cairo district of Manshiyat Nasser, Moussa, who asked participants to address him as "Citizen" Amr Moussa, rather than as Secretary General, warned against the dangers of counter-revolution. As he pointed out also in an official statement on Thursday, Moussa asserted that these incidents were not spontaneous eruptions, but rather deliberate, well-planned attempts at subversion and counter-revolution instigated and waged by the “remnants of the old regime”. In substantiating this assertion, Moussa pointed to the spirit of tolerance and unity shown by millions of protesters during the revolution, with Muslims and Christians praying alongside one another, and with Coptic youth creating human shields to protect Muslims as they conducted their prayers. He referred further to the fact that “the Jewish synagogue in Adly street, a few minutes walk from Tahrir, and along which waves of protesters would pass daily on their to the square, was not touched, despite the total absence of any police protection around it.” For Moussa, this was evidence of the new spirit generated by the revolution, which stood in marked contrast to the attempts at sectarian and religious incitement, which were hallmarks of the old regime."The election is still far off, and Moussa may have won the poll simply because he's the most well-known, as secretary-general of the Arab League. I've been watching Egypt, just like everyone else, to see if there are any signs that Egypt is going to turn into another Iran, or if Egypt is going to fall under the control of a radical Muslim group like al-Qaeda. As it's turned out, it's been very difficult to find any sign of a trend in that direction, beyond an occasional isolated incident of some kind. A couple of months ago, I compared Egypt today to Iran in 1979, at the time of the Great Islamic Revolution. It's worthwhile summarizing the differences briefly Iran in 1979 was in a generational Crisis era, and Egypt today is in a generational Crisis era, so that much is the same. But there are also significant differences that I've written about before at length. Egypt has no historic fault line between monarchy and clerics, as in Iran, and there's no charismatic clerical leader like Iran's Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Egypt lacks any strong radical Muslim presence, which Iran had, and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has long ago renounced violence. There's no sign of a civil war, which the Great Islamic Revolution was. The crowds in Tehran yelled "Death to America." If the crowds in Tahrir Square massively started yelling "Death to Israel," then I'd have to change my opinion, but there's been no sign of that. Quite the contrary, I get the feeling that the leaders of all the political parties are going out of their way to reassure everyone that the Egyptian revolution will most definitely NOT be another Iran, and the poll results support that view. The Generational Dynamics prediction is that the region is headed for a new war between Arabs and Jews, re-fighting the genocidal war that followed the partitioning of Palestine in 1948 and the creation of the state of Israel. As part of that war, we can expect to see conflicts between Sunni and Shia Muslims, and between Palestinian factions. But right now, based on all the information available today, it seems more likely that the Egyptians will be fighting WITH us, rather than AGAINST us. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "A wooden xylophone in the forest" The following video is well worth two minutes of your time. A Japanese company is selling cell phones made of wood, and to illustrate the concept, the company built a giant wooden xylophone in the forest. As the wooden ball rolls down the xylophone, it plays Bach. Truly amazing.
[youtube C_CDLBTJD4M nolink]
=inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Egypt applauds GCC intervention in Bahrain Egypt's foreign minister is applauding the actions by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to to send troops to Bahrain to stop the Shia protests against the Sunni government. The statement accuses Iran of trying to destabilize Bahrain. According to the statement, "The stability and Arabhood of the Arab Gulf countries is a red line against which Egypt rejects any trespass." <#stdurl http://www1.albawaba.com/main-headlines/egypt-fm-hails-gcc-intervention-bahrain "Al Bawaba"#> =// .h4 60% of China's farmers have had their land confiscated A survey of 1,564 villages in 17 provinces of China reveals that 60% of farmers have had their land confiscated by the government, and that they were unsatisfied with the compensation that they received. According to the report, "Illegal land confiscation has become the biggest threat to Chinese farmers’ land rights and conflicts related to land have become a threat to the stability of China’s rural society." <#stdurl http://www.eurasiareview.com/chinas-rural-land-grabs-endangering-social-stability-analysis-06042011/ "South Asia Analysis Group (SAAG)"#> =// .h4 Turkey's new role in European-Muslim relations Turkey is centrally located, with geographic links with the Mediterranean, Mesopotamia, the Southern Caucasus and the Black Sea. This is enabling Turkey to take a leading role in relations between Europeans and Muslims. <#stdurl http://www.eurasiareview.com/turkeys-new-role-in-geostrategic-landscape-of-euro-muslim-relations-analysis-07042011 "ISN (Zurich)"#> =// .h4 IMF says that Palestinians are ready for statehood The Palestinians have completely given up on the Mideast peace process, and instead are focusing on a September goal of asking the United Nations to declare, by international mandate, a Palestinian state on pre-1967 borders. The plan took a big step forward this week, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a report praising Palestinian fiscal reform, and declaring that Palestinian financial institutions are ready for statehood. <#stdurl http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=375942 "Ma'an News"#> =// .h4 Sex selection in India creates a threat to stability Sex selection by parents in India has reduced the gender ratio substantially, to 914 girls aged 0-6 for every 1000 boys. There are also severaly skewed gender ratios in China, Vietnam Taiwan, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Even Indian emigrants to the United States exhibit similarly imbalanced birth sex ratios. <#stdurl http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8429/indias-sex-ratio-imbalance-a-threat-to-stability "World Politics Review"#> =// .h4 European Commission: All Roma Gypsy children should go to school There was a huge political battle last year over France's attempt to return much of its Roma Gypsy population from their countries of origin. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e100915 ""15-Sep-10 News -- Europe bitterly attacks France on Roma Gypsy expulsions.""#>) Now the European Commission has made it a top priority that all Roma children should go to school, especially in countries where Roma live in significant numbers – Romania, Bulgaria, Spain, Hungary, Slovakia, France and Greece. <#stdurl http://www.euractiv.com/en/node/503825 "EurActiv"#> =// .h4 Is Japan hiding a nuclear weapons program? Is Japan hiding a nuclear weapons program inside its nuclear power plants? <#stdurl http://newamericamedia.org/2011/04/is-japans-elite-hiding-a-weapons-program-inside-nuclear-plants.php "New America Media"#> =// .h4 How to tell if your neighbor is a bombmaker Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has been promoting the idea of jihadist attackers performing terrorist attacks on their own, without having to make contact with al-Qaeda trainers or to coordinate with others. For example, a homemade bomb can be made from chemicals found in the home -- peroxide and acetone or chlorine and brake fluid. By watching out for neighbors using these and other dangerous chemicals, you can help identify these lone wolf jihadists before they do any damage. <#stdurl http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110406-how-tell-if-your-neighbor-bombmaker "Stratfor"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=715 "8-Apr-11 News -- Egypt poll: Arab League's Amr Moussa in lead for presidency"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110407 7-Apr-11 News -- Portugal requests bailout after disastrous bond auction =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110407.head 7-Apr-11 News -- Portugal requests bailout after disastrous bond auction =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110407.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110407.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110407.date 7-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110407.txt1 Spain will be the new target of 'the markets' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110407.txt2 Sorry for the delay in posting this -- the need for sleep ruled. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Portugal requests bailout after disastrous bond auction" As late as Wednesday morning, Portugal's finance ministry was saying that the country can meet all its financing needs without any aid from the European Union, and that there were no plans to ask for a bailout, according to the <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110406-710378.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>. <#inc ww2010.pic g110406.jpg right "" "Portugal's prime minister José Sócrates on Wednesday"#> However, several hours later, Portugal's prime minister José Sócrates announced that Portugal would ask for a bailout. Portugal thus becomes the third eurozone country, after Greece and Ireland, to require rescue. Socrates is quoted by the <#stdurl http://www.palmbeachpost.com/money/portugal-pm-says-his-country-will-ask-for-1379679.html "Associated Press"#> as follows:"I want to inform the Portuguese that the government decided today to ask ... for financial help, to ensure financing for our country, for our financial system and for our economy ... This is an especially grave moment for our country ... and things will only get worse if nothing's done."Portugal, which needed no aid whatsoever in the morning, suddenly needed €80 billion ($114.4 billion) by the end of the day. That must have been one hell of a three-martini lunch. The immediate problem is that Portugal's government is obligated to repay a €4.5 billion loan that falls due later this month, and must make a €7 billion loan payment in June. So Portugal tried to borrow €1 billion on Wednesday, by selling 12-month Treasury bills. The bills were all sold, but investors demanded yields (interest rates) of almost 6% -- an astronomical amount for 12-month bills. By comparison, yields on America's 12-month bills were at 0.28% on Wednesday, and yields on Germany's 12-month bills were at 1.32%. Portugal's Treasury yields have been rising steadily for over a year, as we reported last week. Yields on Portugal's 10-year bonds were at 8.54% on Wednesday. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110401 ""1-Apr-11 News -- Portugal's and Ireland's bond yields soar, but VIX remains low.""#>) There was really never any doubt that Portugal would need to be bailed out at some point. What's only remarkable is the lies and deception of the politicians who said that a bailout could be avoided. Or maybe that's not remarkable either, since lying and deception are the norms for politicians today, in Lisbon as in Washington and other capitals. The following is a translation from an editorial titled "Who's next?" in <#stdurl http://www.elpais.com/articulo/economia/Quien/proximo/elpepieco/20110407elpepieco_2/Tes "El País (Madrid)"#> in reaction to Portugal's announcement:
"The cold war between governments and financial markets continues, and markets continue to claim victims [in the form of high yields]: Greece 12.5%. Ireland, 8.9%. Portugal, 8.3%. Those are the three numbers of fear in Europe: the countries have been forced to seek assistance from the EU and the IMF. This is interest paid on public debt [bond yields] to 10 years: the best thermometer of fear in the markets that a default will occur is that investors are charging high interest rates. There is a fourth number, 5.2%: it is what Spain pays, which for months was identified as the next in the list. Italy and Belgium are not far from [Spain's situation]. The 10-year Spanish bond has an interest of 5.2% compared to the 8.3% for the Portuguese bond. But Spain has, for the moment, distanced itself from the last fire in the markets that has swept Portugal away, thanks to the reforms undertaken since it has gotten out of the crisis (although the recovery is still fraught with danger) but also thanks to other intangibles. Spain is too big to fail; too big to be rescued. So it's likely that an attack on Spanish debt would be actually a threat to the whole euro: Spain is the boundary between the cold war and a full-scale conflict against the euro and against the European project. And yet, the numbers -- and the [models], which to economists are equally or more important than numbers -- identify Spain as the next domino in the fiscal crisis. Athens asked for rescue in May, and immediately markets targeted Ireland. Dublin came six months later, in November. And Portugal was also unable to avoid the same self-fulfilling prophecy: it was next on the list and has been forced to ask for help just five months later. "Portugal has resisted because the bailouts did not work for Greece and Ireland, whose debt is still under pressure. But neither Portugal's reforms nor its crisis management has been suitable," said Angel Ubide, researcher at the Peterson Institute in Washington. The problem is that Portugal worked as a shield for Spain. In the short term, pressure could resume on Spanish debt, although in recent weeks before the rescue we haven't seen any kind of infection. "The links between the Spanish and the Portuguese economy require think that the prospects for Spain are not independent of happens to Portugal. Still, markets will continue to differentiate between large and small countries: it is not as predictable contagion in the early stages of crisis," according to a note from Barclays Capital."The tone of this editorial is quite remarkable. It never says anything remotely close to the truth -- that with 20% unemployment, and the crashing of a huge real estate bubble, Spain has no hope of paying off its debts without default. The editorial simply blames "the markets." If only it weren't for those darn markets, the editorial implies, then we could continue going into debt forever. Everybody knows not only that Spain will require rescue, but also that Spain is so big that a rescue will not be possible. According to the timetable described by the El País editorial, this crisis should occur in about six months. The same debate is going on in Washington, as a possible government shutdown looms. One side is saying that we can keep spending as before. The other side is saying that it we cut a little here and there, then we can keep spending as before, and we'll have the darn problem solved by 2050, or by 2099 at the latest. But the mathematics tells a different story. Before this crisis is over, Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment, food stamps, and other government social programs, will all be ended or effectively ended, since it will be impossible to pay for them any more, especially since all the nation's resources will be needed for fighting an existential war. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=714 "7-Apr-11 News -- Portugal requests bailout after disastrous bond auction"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110406 6-Apr-11 News -- Bahrain protest movement appears to have been crushed =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110406.head 6-Apr-11 News -- Bahrain protest movement appears to have been crushed =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110406.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110406.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110406.date 6-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110406.txt1 State Dept. 'deeply concerned' about Jewish settlement plans =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110406.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Bahrain protest movement appears to have been crushed" On March 9, al-Jazeera broadcast a show that interviewed several Bahraini protesters. Since then, all those interviewed have been arrested, or beaten or are in hiding, according to <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/programmes/peopleandpower/2011/04/20114511175261498.html "al-Jazeera."#> That shows how thorough Barain's security forces have been. <#inc ww2010.pic g110405.jpg right "" "Protester allegedly beaten after appearing on al-Jazeera"#> Since the protests began on February 14, several dozen protesters have been killed, hundreds have been arrested, and thousands have been injured. Almost all of the protesters have been Shia Muslims. Bahrain is governed by Sunni tribal leaders, although the population of Bahrain is 2/3 Shia. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110218 ""18-Feb-11 News -- Bahrain's government chooses the massacre scenario.""#>) The uprising escalated substantially on March 14, when the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) intervened, and a thousand Saudi troops arrived to help quell protests. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110315 ""15-Mar-11 News -- Bahrain uprising becomes explosive as Saudi troops arrive.""#>) On Tuesday, Bahraini official deported two journalists working for the opposition's main newspaper, according to <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iIFVU5L-GFlgTQw-WH2EwK3eMLCQ?docId=35a09a80ef5443bb94d440f781bc9285 "AP."#> A government spokesman said that the paper was running fabricated news reports" and "false pictures." Today, the protest movement is in tatters, according to <#stdurl http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/how-hardliners-ruined-chance-of-compromise-in-bahrain "The National (UAE)."#> Many of its leaders and activists are in prison, and the protesters are subject to harsh emergency laws. The Saudi population is 15% Shia, and the Saudi rulers have said that they will not tolerate a Shia coup in Bahrain, since it might spill over into Saudi Arabia. Iran is thought to be encouraging exactly that kind of outcome. Pakistan is taking an interest in the situation, according to the <#stdurl http://www.eurasiareview.com/pakistan-reasserts-military-intrusiveness-in-gulf-region-regional-implications-analysis-04042011/ "South Asia Analysis Group (SAAG)."#> Pakistan's army is recruiting two divisions on standby alert for immediate deployment to Saudi Arabia, if there's an outbreak of political upheaval in that country. In addition, Pakistan is recruiting retired soldiers for service in the Bahrain National Guard, to protect the Sunni monarchy. These recruitments are being restricted to Sunni Muslims only; Shias are not being recruited. Genrational Dynamics predicts that the region is headed for a war between Sunni and Shia Muslims. Historically, Hindus have been aligned with Shia Muslims, so it's expected that India will ally with Iran, Russia and the West, while Pakistan will ally with China and the Sunni Muslim countries, in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 State Dept. 'deeply concerned' about Jewish settlement plans The Jerusalem Planning and Building Committee discussed plans to construct 942 new housing units in east Jerusalem. The U.S. State Department issued a statement saying, "the United States is deeply concerned by continuing Israeli actions with respect to settlement construction." It added, "not only are continued Israeli settlements illegitimate, Israel’s actions run counter to efforts to resume direct negotiations." <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/u-s-deeply-concerned-about-israel-settlement-expansion-1.354174 "Haaretz"#> =// .h4 Yemen: Hundreds more protesters injured, six killed In Yemen, anti-riot police used batons to attack protesters among 40,000 people marching in Sanaa, the capital. In Sanaa and Taiz, at least six more people were killed and hundreds were indjured from live gunshot wounds. <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/2011/US/04/05/yemen.protests/ "CNN"#> =// .h4 ElBaradei: We'll fight back if Israel attacks Gaza Former International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei, who is now running for president in Egypt, said that if he's elected president then, "if Israel attacked Gaza we would declare war against the Zionist regime." <#stdurl http://www.ynetnews.com/Ext/Comp/ArticleLayout/CdaArticlePrintPreview/1,2506,L-4051939,00.html "YNet"#> =// .h4 Claim: More than one million Ukrainians have converted to Islam A Russian news agency reports that "more than one million Slavs" in Ukraine have converted to Islam since 1991, a figure that almost certainly is an exaggeration. approximately one in 30 Ukrainian residents is Muslim, while the figure is one in five for Russia. <#stdurl http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2011/04/window-on-eurasia-have-more-than.html "Paul Goble"#> =// .h4 Russia: Separatist movement in Siberia is growing Although Russia has separatist movements in the Caucasus provinces, the biggest separatist threat is from the residents of Siberia. "Siberians do not even want money from the state. They can take care of themselves if they are given the opportunity to conduct free economic activity," according to one Siberian activist. <#stdurl http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2011/04/window-on-eurasia-sibirians-leading.html "Paul Goble"#> =// .h4 Somali pirates hold 56 vessels, 886 hostages According to a recent accounting, Somali pirates are now holding 56 foreign vessels and two barges, along with at least 886 hostages. <#stdurl http://www.eurasiareview.com/somali-pirates-hold-at-least-56-vessels-886-hostages-04042011 "Eurasia Review"#> =// .h4 How to build a nuclear reactor at home - from scratch You can build your own nuclear reactor at home How to build a nuclear reactor at home - from scratch. Your best bet? Use beta-decaying isotopes. <#stdurl http://3.14.by/en/read/building-nuclear-reactor-at-home "Svarychevski Michail Aleksandrovich"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=713 "6-Apr-11 News -- Bahrain protest movement appears to have been crushed"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110405 5-Apr-11 News -- Yemen's government appears near collapse, as Obama administration turns its back =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110405.head 5-Apr-11 News -- Yemen's government appears near collapse, as Obama administration turns its back =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110405.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110405.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110405.date 5-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110405.txt1 France's troops and aircraft enter Ivory Coast conflict =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110405.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Yemen's government appears near collapse, as Obama administration turns its back" In a sharp about-face of policy, the Obama administration is backing away from President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen, America's long-time ally in the war against terror. The administration had fully supported Saleh until news leaked out this weekend, confirmed on Monday, that the administration was calling for Saleh to step down, according to <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hELHao9OcX82QpQc1OgNxyeQ9iYA?docId=CNG.7230d9828bd6255bbc7388f9c1d4bcea.521 "AFP."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110404.jpg center "" "Tawakkol Karman, protest leader in Sanaa, Yemen (New Yorker)"#> The White House is hoping that Saleh's replacement will continue to work with the U.S. in fighting al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is headquartered in Yemen, and is training militants for terrorist acts in Europe and North America. White House spokesman Jay Carney said the following:
"We are obviously concerned that in this period of political unrest that Al-Qaeda and other groups will attempt to take advantage of that power vacuum. That is one of the reasons why we urge political dialogue to take place and a timetable for this transition that President Saleh has talked about to be begun. We believe we can and will work with the government of Yemen on these important matters. We are not focused on one individual."The change in policy comes when the bloodbath in Yemen has substantially worsened in the last few days. Tens of thousands of protesters have been demanding for weeks that Saleh step down. Since the start of the protests, gangs of Saleh supporters had attacked unarmed demonstrators with truncheons, sticks and guns. Over the weekend, security forces used round after round live fire, killing at least 12 protesters and injuring hundreds, according to the <#stdurl http://yemenpost.net/Detail123456789.aspx?ID=3&SubID=3377&MainCat=3 "Yemen Post"#>, It's far from clear that Yemen's government will continue to exist if Saleh steps down. Saleh's great strength is in manipulating and holding together the powerful tribal confederations, and tribal conflict may follow his departure. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Pakistan's army to defend Sunnis in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain Pakistan's army is recruiting two divisions on standby alert for immediate deployment to Saudi Arabia, if there's an outbreak of political upheaval in that country. In addition, Pakistan is recruiting retired soldiers for service in the Bahrain National Guard, to protect the Sunni monarchy. These recruitments are being restricted to Sunni Muslims only; Shias are not being recruited. This development is consistent with the expectation that China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be opposed to America, India and Russia in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war. <#stdurl http://www.eurasiareview.com/pakistan-reasserts-military-intrusiveness-in-gulf-region-regional-implications-analysis-04042011/ "South Asia Analysis Group (SAAG)"#> =// .h4 France's troops and aircraft enter Ivory Coast conflict French troops and aircraft are entering the conflict in Ivory Coast, as it escalates into full scale civil war. France is now heavily involved in two African wars -- in Libya and Ivory Coast. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/France-and-UN-Join-Fight-Against-Ivory-Coast-Incumbent-President-119206849.html "VOA"#> =// .h4 Western military advisers are becoming visible in Benghazi Western military advisers are becoming visible in Benghazi, Libya. <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/western-military-advisers-become-visible-in-benghazi-2260810.html "Independent"#> =// .h4 Italy recognizes Libya's rebels as official government In a surprise, Italy's government has officially recognized Libya's rebels, as represented by the Libyan National Transitional Council, as the only legitimate representative of the nation. Italy is the third nation, after France and Qatar, to recognize the rebel government. Italy has a lot at stake in Libya, so the decision must have been very closely calculated. On the one hand, Italy fears a flood of refugees leaving Libya and arriving on Italy's shores, hoping to live in Europe. On the other hand, Italy is Libya's former colonial power, and has substantial economic ties in the country. <#stdurl http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0404/Italy-rejects-Qaddafi-recognizes-Libyan-rebel-government "CS Monitor"#> =// .h4 Blogger: Libya action prepares for war with China According to one anti-American blogger, the principal motivation behind the West's military action in Libya is to deprive China of its economic engagement with Africa, in preparation for war with China. The author says that the West used the same strategy in the 1930s, preparing for war with Japan. <#stdurl http://app.bronto.com/public/?q=preview_message&fn=Link&t=1&ssid=12927&id=30t6dwm4nq26ij134c7ddwsoprwvo "Paul Craig Roberts"#> =// .h4 IMF pressures Greece to restructure / default on its debt The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been pushing Greece behind the scenes to restructure its debt, which would be a form of default. The IMF has decided that the austerity measures and EU bailout are not enough to escape default, something that many people have been saying for a long time. The IMF is reluctant to make its position public, because doing so would increase pressure on Portugal, which will probably be the next country requiring an EU bailout. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,754864,00.html "Spiegel"#> =// .h4 Hillary Clinton: the most popular figure in the administration Hillary Clinton has become the most popular and trusted figure in the Obama administration, with a favorable rating higher than President Obama, Vice President Biden, or Secretary of Defense Gates. She was a polarizing figure during the Clinton administration, but her work as Secretary of State around the world has won her admirers. <#stdurl http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2011/0402/Hillary-Clinton-now-most-popular-figure-in-Obama-administration "CS Monitor"#> =// .h4 How to avoid identity theft scammers during the tax season. How to avoid identity theft scammers during the tax season. <#stdurl http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/04/04/earlyshow/living/money/main20050403.shtml "CBS News"#> =// .h4 Fake girlfriend service employs actual women The easiest way to get a girlfriend is to already have one. So if you need a girlfriend to post cute messages on your Facebook site, you can get a virtual girlfriend from CloudGirlfriend.com soon. The service will employ real women. <#stdurl http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/mimssbits/26590/ "Technology Review"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=712 "5-Apr-11 News -- Yemen's government appears near collapse, as Obama administration turns its back"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110404 4-Apr-11 News -- Egypt's 'Save the Revolution' movement splits Muslim Brotherhood =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110404.head 4-Apr-11 News -- Egypt's 'Save the Revolution' movement splits Muslim Brotherhood =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110404.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110404.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110404.date 4-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110404.txt1 Over 100,000 protesters returned to Tahrir Square on Friday =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110404.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Egypt's 'Save the Revolution' movement splits Muslim Brotherhood" An estimated 100,000 protesters demanding to "Save the Revolution" demonstrated in Tahrir Square in Cairo, Egypt, on Friday, according to <#stdurl http://english.ahram.org.eg/~/NewsContent/1/64/9204/Egypt/Politics-/Egypt-revolution-fortunes-swing-back-up-despite-Br.aspx "Ahram."#> The protesters have called for another rally next Friday. <#inc ww2010.pic g110403.jpg center "" "Tahrir Square on Friday (Ahram)"#> There had been no large scale demonstrations ever since the armed forces emptied the square on March 9, and it had been widely assumed that the revolution had fizzled out, but Friday's huge crowds proved that assumption wrong. The reborn revolution fervor was triggered by a return to some of the abuses that had been common during the presidency of Hosni Mubarak, whom the January uprising forced to resign. Several people have come forward to say that they were detained and tortured by the military that had assumed power when Mubarak resigned, according to <#stdurl http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/middle-east/egypt/110401/egypt-protests-mubarak "Global Post."#> Even Mubarak's own National Democratic Party (NDP), widely criticized for corruption, is regrouping for a return to political prominence. Of greater concern to some young people is the potential rise in power of the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist political parties. The median age of Egyptians is 24, so most Egyptians are young, and have grown up in a secular Egypt with a Muslim Brotherhood that gave up violence decades ago. Young Egyptians wish to retain their secular freedoms, and to continue to coexist with Coptic Christians and other religious groups. The result has been a serious generational rift within the Muslim Brotherhood. On Saturday, two key leaders of the Brotherhood resigned, with the intention of joining a new political party, the Hahda Party, according to <#stdurl http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/383380 "Al-Masry Al-Youm."#> This party will be conservative, but it will uphold the freedom of its members, and will represent a strong competitor to the Brotherhood, because it will draw large numbers of Brotherhood youth. In fact, the Brotherhood has been facing a rift since the Revolution began in January, according to an analysis by <#stdurl http://english.ahram.org.eg/~/NewsContent/1/64/8949/Egypt/Politics-/Is-the-Muslim-Brotherhood-internally-divided.aspx "Ahram."#> Within a few days of the overthrow of Mubarak, a Facebook event called "Brotherhood Youth Revolution" was established, calling on the Muslim Brotherhood Youth to overthrow it leaders and senior members. The rift grew when Mubarak's police and thugs were attacking the protesters in Tahrir Square. The leaders and senior members of the Brotherhood sided with the military, but the decision to back down was rejected by the Brotherhood youth. The result was a deadly battle of Tahrir Square that killed several dozen demonstrators. Young Egyptians are sick of the corruption and abuse of the Mubarak regime, and they want to see it replaced. But they've lived their entire lives enjoying a secular society, at peace with Israel and the West. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.subref e110214 e110214c ""14-Feb-11 News -- Reader question about the Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood.""#>) My expectation is that there will be no significant changes to these policies. =// (See "14-Feb-11 News -- Reader question about the Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood.") Youth groups have listed five demands for the military and the interim government, according to <#stdurl http://bikyamasr.com/wordpress/?p=31743 "Bikya Masr"#>:
"Today's young grew up freer than we did. They did not develop the same rage that inspired us. Even the Islamic movement is seeing things differently. It's trying to speak to our current times. Before, we thought you could remove the infidel ruler only through force. Today, we see we can do it through peaceful protest and the ballot box."Young Egyptians today have as little desire to return to the harsh practices and attitudes of the Muslim Brotherhood of the 1950s and 1960s, any more than today's young Americans or Europeans would like to return to the attitudes and behaviors of the 1950s. However, Egyptian society, especially the Muslim Brotherhood, is going through a kind of societal identity crisis along generational lines. The young people always win these generational battles since, after all, the old people die off. We should begin to see the early resolutions to some of these disputes when elections are held later this year. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=711 "4-Apr-11 News -- Egypt's 'Save the Revolution' movement splits Muslim Brotherhood"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110403 3-Apr-11 News -- Russia's army crippled by alcoholism and grim census results =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110403.head 3-Apr-11 News -- Russia's army crippled by alcoholism and grim census results =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110403.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110403.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110403.date 3-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110403.txt1 Is Russia still preparing to fight World War II? =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110403.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia's army crippled by alcoholism and grim census results" If you're a guy looking for a wife, you might wish to consider a trip to Russia. Preliminary results of the 2010 census show that Russia's population is 142.9 million, 2.2 million less than in 2002. Furthermore, only 46.3% are male, while 53.7% are female, according to the <#stdurl http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/census-shows-population-fall-of-16/433927.html "Moscow Times."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110402.jpg center "" "Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev speaks to a census worker (Moscow Times)"#> The growing gender imbalance is due primarily to "the high incidence of premature death among men." A Moscow expert quoted by <#stdurl http://www.rferl.org/content/russia_census_results_demographic_crisis/3543674.html "RFERL"#> explains the plunging population as follows:
"The demographic process today -- and I mean the decline in population -- is fantastically powerful, and it is connected not only with the allocation or nonallocation of budget resources, but also with the problem of culture. We have become a hedonistic consumer culture and, as is always the case in these situations, the birthrate is in decline. This is also happening in Europe and, to a lesser extent, the United States."You can tell this guy is a politician, if he believes that government misallocation of resources is causing a massive decline in birthrate. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what we're seeing is actually the flip side of the postwar "baby boom." During the generational Crisis era of the 1930s and 1940s, and again in today's generational Crisis era, couples are extremely anxious about finances, terrorism, xenophobia, and war, and are marginally less willing to bring a new baby into the world. This is particularly true in Russia, which has gone through one crisis after another since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Once the approaching world war has run its course, then there'll be a new postwar baby boom, and the cycle will repeat. A big reason for the the high incidence of premature death among men is alcoholism is widespread alcholism, according to <#stdurl http://www.newsbcm.com/doc/725 "BCM (Moscow)."#> Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has spoken out on alcoholism, and is recommending a package of measures to combat it. "You know my attitude to the alcoholization of the population: we have, of course, to fight that. But there is no simple, linear solutions," he said. Both alcoholism and the population decline are taking their toll on Russia's army. Russia requires an annual conscription of about 555,000, according to <#stdurl http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/ISN-Insights/Detail?lng=en&id=128116&contextid734=128116&contextid735=127098&tabid=127098 "ISN (Zurich)."#> There will be 11.6 million men of conscription age, from 18 to 27 years, in Russia this year, which should be plenty. However, when you deduct those found to be unfit for service, those with a college exemption, and those dodging the draft, there are only 1.7 million men left. That's not all. 70% of those drafted are 18 years old. Only 855,000 men will turn 18 in 2011, 34.5% fewer than in 2002. In fact, the draft has become so unpopular that some 200,000 younr Russians avoided military service in the fall of 2010, according to <#stdurl http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2011/01/window-on-eurasia-only-repression-or.html "Paul Goble."#> Moscow can only save the situation by provinding a massive infusion of new funds for the armed forces. In particular, one proposal is to pay soldiers an amount equal to half the amount given to mothers to encourage having children. That would be something like $6,000 for each soldier, for a year of service. If that step is not taken, then Moscow will have to find a way to use more force to push people into the military. The sophistication of America's military intervention in Libya has exposed even more serious problems with Russia's army, according to Chief of General Staff Army-General Nikolai Makarov, quoted by <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37727&tx_ttnews[backPid]=512 "Jamestown."#> Makarov is saying that Russia still has a World War II army:
"Last week Serdyukov’s first deputy, the Chief of General Staff Army-General Nikolai Makarov gave a much more somber assessment of the present state of the Russian military addressing the annual session of the Russian Military Science Academy – an influential semi-official think tank. Makarov complained that Russian military analysts continue to base international military balances on gross inventories of tanks, guns, jets and infantry manpower, while Western information technologies of data distribution, command and control are largely ignored. The war with Iraq in 1991 should have awakened, according to Makarov, the Russian military to new ways of conducting warfare, but it did not. Makarov contended there were some 11,200 generals and officers with military science degrees serving in Russia’s military academies continuing to research World War II (The Great Patriotic War) tactics that are practically useless today (VPK, March 30). Twenty years since 1991 have been wasted, stated Makarov. The Russian military continued to prepare mass armies armed with outdated weapons. Makarov commended the US-led coalition’s use of modern intelligence-gathering, command and control systems and precision-guided weapons against the Russian-armed forces of Colonel Gaddafi, while Russian forces do not have such capabilities or an understanding of how to use them. Makarov complained that General Staff officers were forced to hastily put together military reforms plans without any help from Russia’s numerous active service military theoreticians and were often blundering by using “trial and error methods.” To effectively meet new threats Russia needs new ideas, weapons and soldiers (VPK, March 30)."All of these issues point to increasingly serious problems in Russia's armed forces. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=710 "3-Apr-11 News -- Russia's army crippled by alcoholism and grim census results"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110402 2-Apr-11 News -- US pulls its planes and missiles, as Libya war appears stalemated =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110402.head 2-Apr-11 News -- US pulls its planes and missiles, as Libya war appears stalemated =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110402.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110402.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110402.date 2-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110402.txt1 Gaddafi rejects call for cease fire =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110402.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "US pulls its planes and missiles, as Libya war appears stalemated" US officials have confirmed that American war planes, ground-attack aircraft and Tomahawk cruise missiles will be pulled out the Libya operation, starting this weekend. In addition, US naval ships and submarines are being withdrawn from the seas off Libya according to <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hJs2nfL5q5ZB2nqbzWqcCX9k0-rw?docId=CNG.3bf4105ffa63410f8b0d2165e00d15f5.721 "AFP."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110401.jpg center "" "Rebel fighters gather around two of their dead on the road to Brega in Libya (Telegraph)"#> These steps are being taken, now that NATO took command of the entire coalition effort on Thursday. The US will continue to play a supporting role - providing planes for mid-air refueling, jamming and surveillance. However, air support for the rebels will have to be provided by the remaining coalistion forces, including Qatar, UAE, Sweden, Britain, and France. In Libya on Friday, rebels called for a ceasefire, after they were driven back by Gaddafi's forces for the third day in a row. Gaddafi's forces have rejected the ceasefire request, according to the <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8422874/Libya-Gaddafi-forces-reject-ceasefire.html "Telegraph."#> There's an opinion column that asks the question, "Will Libya become Obama’s Iraq?", in Friday's <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/will-libya-become-obamas-iraq/2011/03/30/AFEjkhIC_story.html "Washington Post."#> That's the wrong question. The right question is, "Will Libya become Obama's Vietnam?" As I wrote several days ago, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Iraq war could never have been "another Vietnam," because the Vietnam was in a generational Crisis era during that war, while Iraq was in a generational Awakening era during the Iraq war. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110331 ""31-Mar-11 News -- US deepens involvement in Libya, as rebels suffer decisive reversal.""#>) Libya is in a generation Crisis era, meaning that, as in Vietnam, the old ethnic civil wars of the past are going to be repeated, and the U.S. can neither cause nor prevent a new crisis civil war. All the U.S. can do is get caught in the middle, as happened in Vietnam. The talk of a ceasefire offers a thin reed of hope that the U.S. might be able to extract itself. Every crisis civil war always begins with peace agreements alternating with periods of violence, until finally both sides tire of peace agreements and the real slaughter begins. Libya currently appears to be headed towards a stalemate. If that can be translated into a peace agreement, then the U.S. and the West can extricate itself. Once we're out, the Libyans can then go ahead and massacre each other, which is what's going to happen anyway, whether we're there or not. This proposal is all fantasy, of course. The people of the U.S., France and Britain have become highly nationalistic about the Libyan uprising. (Though, as many people are pointing out, not about the Syrian, Bahrani or Yemeni uprisings, nor the Ivory Coast war.) So we're not about to let Gaddafi get the upper hand against the rebels. However, the most interesting news today is the withdrawal of America's war planes, missiles and ships from the battle. This will substantially reduce the firepower available to Nato and the rebels. There are powerful nationalistic forces at play in America today, and it will be interesting to see whether those nationalistic attitudes end up overriding the decision to keep America in a supporting role for long. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=708 "2-Apr-11 News -- US pulls its planes and missiles, as Libya war appears stalemated"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110401 1-Apr-11 News -- Portugal's and Ireland's bond yields soar, but VIX remains low =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110401.head 1-Apr-11 News -- Portugal's and Ireland's bond yields soar, but VIX remains low =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110401.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110401.loc ww2010.weblog.log1104 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110401.date 1-Apr-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110401.txt1 Oblivious investors continue to push stock prices up =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110401.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Portugal's and Ireland's bond yields soar, but VIX remains low" The euro crisis increased on Thursday, as yields (interest rates) demanded by investors to lend money to Portugal or Ireland through 10-year bond purchases soared to new highs. Higher yields on government bonds indicate that investors believe that the country is more likely to default. <#inc ww2010.pic g110331a.gif center "" "Ireland, Portugal, 10-year bonds, 3/31/2011"#> Portugal announced that its budget deficit for the year 2010 was considerably higher than officials had previously predicted, or committed to, according to the <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8420147/Portugal-pressured-to-take-EU-bail-out-after-new-data.html "Telegraph."#> This was just the latest blow to Portugal's government, just one week after Portugal's Prime Minister Jose Socrates was forced to resign, because the parliament rejected his austerity plan. The parliament was dissolved on Thursday, and new elections are scheduled for June 5. The news pushed Portugal's 10-year bond yields to an astronomical 8.6%. (By contrast, yields on US 10-year Treasuries are around 3.4%.) Ireland's government announced that it must spend $34 billion more to bail out its banks, according to the <#stdurl http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1372029/Ireland-s-banks-set-bailout-scale-debts-revealed.html "Daily Mail."#> This lifts the cost of staving off a financial collapse to almost $100 billion. Ireland's 10-year bond yield exceeded 10% for the first time, even though Ireland was already bailed out last year. However, none of this disastrous news had any noticeable effect on bubbleheaded, oblivious Wall Street investors, where stock prices rose another 0.6%. Several commentators have been pointing out that the <#stdurl http://www.cboe.com/micro/VIX/vixintro.aspx "Volatility Index, or VIX,"#> has been extremely low recently. The VIX indicates how nervous traders are that stock prices might fall. A high VIX means that traders are using hedge funds to hedge their stock purchases, while a low VIX means that traders feel safe just owning stock, without any hedging. The following graph from <#stdurl http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/03/31/532591/why-is-the-vix-so-low/ "FT Alphaville"#> shows the VIX since early 2008: <#inc ww2010.pic g110331b.gif center "" "VIX - 2008 - Present"#> The VIX spiked on three occasions since then:
"I guess I'm emotionally reluctant to accept your conclusions because if you're right then it means that the current Libya war is a full-fledged crisis civil war, which means that things are certain to go very, very badly. So I think that for emotional reasons I'm going to postpone a decision a while longer, until it's clearer which way things are going, now that we're in three simultaneous wars in Muslim countries."To put this conclusion into perspective, let's take a quick look at the Vietnam war and the recent Iraq war. North and South Vietnam have had different ethnic origins, with North Vietnam (Vietnamese Kingdom) originally populated by ethnic Chinese, and South Vietnam (Champa Kingdom) populated by Polynesian settlers from Indonesia and Malaysia. These ethnic differences resulted in one crisis civil war after another over the centuries. Prior to the 1960s, Vietnam's last crisis war was the French conquest of Indochina in the 1880s and 1890s. By the 1960s, Vietnam was deep into a generational Crisis era, and so there was bound to be a crisis civil war, and the U.S. could neither have caused it nor prevented it. All the U.S. could do was to get caught in the middle, which we did. The Iraq war was frequently called "another Vietnam," but it was nothing like the Vietnam war. Iraq's previous crisis war was the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, so Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, where a crisis civil war is literally impossible. Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and al-Qaeda in Iraq did all they could to trigger a sectarian civil war, but it fizzled within a year, as expected. Now we come to the Libya intervention, which is increasingly becoming a civil war with the U.S. being caught in the middle. Iraq could never have become "another Vietnam," but ironically Libya can. Generational Dynamics forecasting is at best probabilistic. It can predict things with certainty over a long time frame, or with some uncertainty in a shorter time window. So at this point, I don't completely buy into the Libyan disaster scenario. There are too many uncertainties, and I've come to have too much respect for the power of chaotic events and political interventions to delay trend events and the inevitable. Furthermore, it's my fault that I haven't tracked down whatever books or histories or whatever of Libya in the 1920s and 1930s to be able to reach a definitive conclusion on what happened there. (As long as I'm blaming myself, I'll take the liberty of whining a little, because I simply don't have the time to do a lot of the research that needs to be done. I make no money from Generational Dynamics, which is a public service, and I'm like everyone else having to work hard at my day job just to pay bills.) At this point, all I can really say is that, based on the information I have so far, there is a non-trivial probability that the Libyan intervention will degenerate into a bloody crisis civil war. In the case of the Iraq war, I could say that the probability of that happening was zero. In the case of Libya, I don't know whether that probability is 30% or 50% or 70%, but I know for certain that it's well above zero. However, one bit of good news is that I totally discount any credible involvement by al-Qaeda in Libya. The key to refining this analysis is to thoroughly study what happened in Libya in the 1920s and 1930s, Libya's last generational Crisis era, in order to understand the historical relationship between the Arabs, Berbers, Bedouins, Italians, and other ethnic and tribal groups in Libya. Perhaps I'll have the time and opportunity to do that analysis soon. In the meantime, what I can tell you now, based on what I know now, is that the Libya war is much more like the Vietnam war than Iraq ever was, and that I'm not very optimistic about what's coming soon. And with the entire Mideast in a generational Crisis era, it could be much worse than Vietnam. It's a shame that no one in the Administration knows anything about generational theory, or they might be pursuing a different policy. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=706 "31-Mar-11 News -- US deepens involvement in Libya, as rebels suffer decisive reversal"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110330 30-Mar-11 News -- A Palestinian state in the United Nations by September? =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110330.head 30-Mar-11 News -- A Palestinian state in the United Nations by September? =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110330.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110330.loc ww2010.weblog.log1103 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110330.date 30-Mar-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110330.txt1 Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas consider reconciliation =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110330.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "A Palestinian state in the United Nations by September?" While the eyes of the world are focused on Libya, Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas have been moving ahead with plans to discuss reconciliation, with the expectation that the United Nations will create a Palestinian state in September. <#inc ww2010.pic g110329.jpg center "" "Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas on Sunday"#> The so-called Mideast peace process has been dead as a doornail for some time, and many people in the international community blame Israel's policies of permitting the construction of new settlements in East Jerusalem. The Palestinians were doing nothing until the "Arab Revolution" reached Gaza and the West Bank, in the form of young Palestinians demanding that the two warring Palestinian factions reconcile. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110321 ""21-Mar-11 News -- March 15 reconciliation movement triggers Hamas attacks on Israel.""#>) Hamas, which has been governing the Gaza strip since the 2007 war with Fatah, has previously been completely opposed to any reconciliation, but the March !5 protests have divided Hamas leaders, and forced some of them to consider the possibility. The result is that Hamas leader Mahmud Zahar traveled to Cairo to meet with the Arab League, and the Arab League will host reconciliation talks between Hamas and Fatah in Cairo some time in April, according to <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iPk6GwXE0Lv5F3UWytlSzt-rginQ?docId=CNG.de1bc45a4642d8ad00be85bc0b2fc49d.861 "AFP."#> The idea of reconciliation, which wasn't even being considered until recently, is now highly significant in view of a statement issued on September 21, 2010, by the <#stdurl http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2010/sg2162.doc.htm "Middle East Quartet"#> (United Nations, Russian Federation, United States, European Union). This statement called for recognition of a Palestinian state based on pre-1967 borders by September of this year, with reconciliation being one of the conditions. The statement has been specifically endorsed by President Barack Obama. Here are some excerpts:
"The Quartet expressed its strong support for the resumption of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, which can resolve all final status issues within one year. The Quartet reaffirmed its full commitment to its previous statements, which provide that negotiations should lead to an agreement that ends the occupation that began in 1967 and results in the emergence of an independent, democratic, contiguous and viable Palestinian State living side by side in peace and security with Israel and its other neighbours. ... Recalling that change on the ground is integral to peace, the Quartet reaffirmed its support for the Palestinian Authority’s August 2009 plan for building the institutions of a Palestinian State within two years. The Quartet commended the significant progress towards that goal as reported by international institutions to the 21 September 2010 meeting of the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee. The Quartet took particular note of the statement in the Economic Monitoring Report of the World Bank that: “If the Palestinian Authority maintains its current performance in institution-building and delivery of public services, it is well-positioned for the establishment of a State at any point in the near future.” ... The Quartet reiterated its support for efforts to restore Palestinian unity based on the commitments of the Palestine Liberation Organization."In view of this statement, the Palestinian Authority (PA) is studying what steps have to be taken to meet its obligations by September, according to the <#stdurl http://english.pnn.ps/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=9795&Itemid=61 "Palestine News Network,"#> with the expectation that a Palestinian state will become a member nation of the United Nations by a vote in September. A reconciliation between the Palestinian factions is one of the steps. Another step, already ordered by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, is to draw up the constitution for a future Palestinian state, according to the <#stdurl http://arabnews.com/middleeast/article333616.ece "Arab News."#> However, talk of a reconciliation has drawn a sharp reaction from Israel, according to <#stdurl http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=425129&version=1&template_id=37&parent_id=17 "AFP."#> Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the following in a speech on Monday evening:
"We hear in recent days that the Palestinian Authority is thinking of uniting with Hamas. It’s thinking of effecting peace, not with Israel, but with Hamas. Well, I say to them something very simple: you can’t have peace with Israel and Hamas. It’s one or the other, but not both. Choose peace with Israel. Abandon unity with Hamas because Hamas is the antithesis of peace."This highlights one of the difficulties with "unity," because the nature of the unity is a factor. The Quartet statement, excerpted above, calls for "efforts to restore Palestinian unity based on the commitments of the Palestine Liberation Organization." One of these commitments, for example, is recognition of Israel and its right to exist, something that Hamas has refused to do. Thus, Netanyahu has threatened to take unspecified unilateral actions, if the UN creates a Palestinian state in September, governed by a unified government, especially if it doesn't recognize Israel's right to exist. Furthermore, the PA is willing to give up hundreds of millions of dollars of US aid, if that's the cost of reconciliation, according to the <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=214180 "Jerusalem Post."#> This decision was necessary because the U.S. has in the past indicated that it would not provide aid to a unity government that included Hamas. So, in summary, the plan being pursued by Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas appears to be the following: Pursue a unity government with Hamas, despite opposition from Israel and potentially from the U.S., and then go the United Nations in September and demand that they fulfill their commitment to create a Palestinian state on pre-1967 borders, and make it a member of the United Nations. It sounds like a straightforward plan, but from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Mideast is headed for a new war between Arabs and Jews, re-fighting the genocidal war that followed the 1948 partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. With the entire Mideast in turmoil with "Arab Revolutions," any plan that stretches out to September is sure to have to deal with many unexpected complications. As the old saying goes, planning is what you do when life happens. (Note: For simplicity, this report did not attempt to make any distinction between the following organizations: Fatah, the Palestinian Authority, the PA, the Palestine Liberation Organization, the PLO.) (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=705 "30-Mar-11 News -- A Palestinian state in the United Nations by September?"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110329 29-Mar-11 News -- Yemen weapons factory explosion raises fears of al-Qaeda rise =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110329.head 29-Mar-11 News -- Yemen weapons factory explosion raises fears of al-Qaeda rise =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110329.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110329.loc ww2010.weblog.log1103 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110329.date 29-Mar-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110329.txt1 This 'catastrophe' will affect the uprising in the capital, Sanaa =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110329.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Yemen weapons factory explosion raises fears of al-Qaeda rise" On Monday, more than 100 people were killed, and dozens injured, from an explosion in a weapons factory in Abyan province in Yemen, according to <#stdurl http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/03/28/yemen.unrest/ "CNN."#> <#inc ww2010.pic yemen5.gif center "" "Yemen (CS Monitor)"#> There is a bizarre story behind this explosion. On Sunday, around 30 hooded gunmen stormed that weapons factory, as well as some other sites in the region, according to <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Suspected-al-Qaida-Attack-Kills-Yemeni-Troops------118733514.html "VOA."#> They drove off in four vehicles with cases of weapons. On Monday, local residents were ransacking and looting the factory. It's believed that one of them lit a cigarette, triggering the explosion. The explosion has become part of the politics of the "Arab Revolution" that's occurring in Sanaa, the country's capital. For almost two months, tens of thousands of demonstrators have been protesting to demand that President Ali Abdullah Saleh step down, after 38 years in power. The outcome of this uprising is crucially important for the United States, since Saleh is a close ally in fighting the war on terror, especially since Yemen became the headquarters for al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in 2009. In a remarkable change in assessment last year, CIA analysts now see AQAP as a greater threat to US security than the core al-Qaeda group in Pakistan and Afghanistan. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e100827 ""27-Aug-10 News -- U.S. considering escalating military role in Yemen""#>) The fear is that if Saleh steps down, then he may be replaced by someone more sympathetic to al-Qaeda. Even worse, the country may descend into a civil war that permits an al-Qaeda takeover. Opposition leaders have been accusing Saleh of playing the "al-Qaeda card," according to <#stdurl http://www.newsyemen.net/en/view_news.asp?sub_no=3_2011_03_27_40337 "News Yemen,"#> by using the possible rise of al-Qaeda as a means of discrediting the opposition. Thus, here have accusations and counter-accusations regarding the weapons factory. Abyan province is the biggest stronghold of AQAP, and the pro-Saleh side is saying that the gunmen were al-Qaeda militants who will perpetrate more crimes of this type, if Saleh is forced to step down and the country becomes more unstable. The anti-Saleh side is hinting that the Saleh government pulled back its security forces from the weapons factory on purpose, in order to create a crisis that would benefit Saleh. Whether the gunmen were al-Qaeda militants or "ordinary" militants is also called into question. Whatever the truth about the militants, the subsequent explosion was not anticipated by anyone. One doctor quoted by the <#stdurl http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2011/03/yemen-scores-killed-in-explosion-at-weapons-factory.html "Associated Press"#> says, "This accident is a true catastrophe, the first of its kind. There are so many burned bodies. I can't even describe the situation.” A "catastrophe" of this kind is certain to have an effect on the growing political instability of Yemen. But it remains to be seen which side will benefit, as the truth comes out about the weapons factory. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=704 "29-Mar-11 News -- Yemen weapons factory explosion raises fears of al-Qaeda rise"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110328 28-Mar-11 News -- Libya's rebels sweep towards Tripoli, as Nato reaches some mysterious agreement =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110328.head 28-Mar-11 News -- Libya's rebels sweep towards Tripoli, as Nato reaches some mysterious agreement =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110328.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110328.loc ww2010.weblog.log1103 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110328.date 28-Mar-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110328.txt1 China's food imports keep rising, while exports fall =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110328.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Libya's rebels sweep towards Tripoli, as Nato reaches some mysterious agreement" In the last couple of days, rebels have been sweeping towards Tripoli, capturing or recapturing one town after another -- Ajdabiya, Brega, Uqayla, Ras Lanuf and Bin Jawad, according to the <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12860014 "BBC."#> Sirte is still a Gaddafi stronghold, while Misrata is the scene of bitter fighting. <#inc ww2010.pic g110327.jpg center "" "Libya military actions - March 26 (BBC)"#> However, no one is doubting that the rebels were successful only because of the air strikes provided by the US-led coalition and operation "Odyssey Dawn," based on authorization last week by the UN Security Council, according to <#stdurl http://www.boston.com/news/world/africa/articles/2011/03/27/libyan_rebels_take_back_oil_town_in_westward_push "AP."#> Al-Jazeera on Sunday showed rows of tanks along the coast road demolished by coalition missiles. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made the rounds of the Sunday morning news talk shows, appearing on every one (but not permitted to appear on Fox News Sunday -- apparently the war is still going on). Here are the excerpts from <#stdurl http://www.cbsnews.com/sections/ftn/main3460.shtml "Face the Nation"#> that I found most interesting:
"BOB SCHIEFFER: Well, let’s talk about Libya a little then. We have-- the U.N. resolution is in place. It’s established a no-fly zone. NATO is going to take over the operations there. But it does not call for regime change. And the President has said that Mister Mac-- Qaddafi has to go. That seems a bit contradictory. ROBERT GATES: Well, I don’t think so. I think you-- what you’re seeing is the difference between a military mission and a policy objective. The military mission is very limited and restricted to the establishment of the no-fly zone and for humanitarian purposes to prevent Qaddafi from being used to his armed forces to slaughter his own people. That’s it. And-- and, one of the things that I think is central is you don’t in a military campaign set as a mission or a goal something you’re not sure you can achieve. And if we’ve learned anything over the past number of years, regime change is very complicated. And-- and can be very expensive and can take a long time. And so I think the key here was establishing a military mission that was achievable was achievable on a limited period of time and that could be sustained. ... BOB SCHIEFFER: What-- what would be an acceptable outcome? You want him out. But would you be satisfied if the country wound up partitioned or something of that nature? HILLARY CLINTON: I think it’s too soon to predict that. I mean one of the reasons why we are forming a political contact group in London this coming week is because we want to get a unified political approach just as we have forged a unified military approach. And as-- as both Bob and I have said, there are many ways that this could move toward the-- the end state. If you think about what happened in the nineties, you know, it-- it took a while for Milosevic to leave but you could see his days were numbered even though he wasn’t yet out of office. And so, there’s a lot of ways that this could unfold. What is clear is that Qaddafi himself is losing ground."This is very interesting. I don't believe that I've heard an argument like this before. It makes a virtue out of not having an objective for the Libyan intervention. I actually have some sympathy for this argument, but it seems strange to hear it, after hearing for years that every military action should have clearly defined objective. The other bit of very strange news on Sunday was that command for the entire operation was to be turned over to Nato. You'll recall that it had already been decided that implementation of the "no-fly zone" was to be commanded by Nato, so what was new on Sunday is that Nato will also command the part of the mission where fighter jets go into Libya and blow up Gaddafi's tanks and troops. Or, at least that's what we assume the agreement means, based on the following description from NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, according to <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/03/27/libya.nato/ "CNN"#>:
"Our goal is to protect civilians and civilian-populated areas under threat of attack from the Gadhafi regime. NATO will implement all aspects of the U.N. resolution. Nothing more, nothing less."The problem with all this is Turkey. It was just three days ago that a French fighter jet destroyed a Libyan air force plane that was violating the no-fly zone. It was destroyed by a French air-to-ground missile, just after it landed, according to the <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/24/turkey-france-clash-libya-campaign "Guardian."#> Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan vitriolically attacked French president Nicolas Sarkozy:
"I wish that those who only see oil, gold mines and underground treasures when they look in [Libya's] direction, would see the region through glasses of conscience from now on."Thus, it's not surprising that the announcement of Nato command on Sunday conspicuously did not provide any details of what will be permitted. Before today, Erdogan was bitterly opposed to Nato command, because it would mean that Turkish forces might be used against the Libyans. But on Sunday, Erdogan demanded Nato command, so that Turkey could influence the course of the action. The <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/27/libya-turkey-mediators-prime-minister "Guardian"#> quotes him as follows:
"We have been opposed to any unilateral action and we could never accept appeals such as that by the French minister for a new crusade. But for Turkey, it's out of the question to shoot at Libyan people or drop bombs on the Libyan people. Turkey's role will be to withdraw from Libya as soon as possible [and] restore the unity and integrity of the country based on the democratic demands of the people. [It's vital that] this deployment should not be carried out for Libya's oil. Of course there will be a price for these actions and no one can guarantee that Libya won't have to pay a price. ... I'm afraid we could see another Afghanistan or a second Iraq emerging. When western forces entered Afghanistan nearly 10 years ago, people were talking of it being over in days, and people said the same in Iraq. But a million have died and a civilisation has as good as collapsed. We don't want to see a similar picture in Libya."It's hard for me, at least, to see how all this is going to be sorted out. I agree with those commentators who say that Gaddafi will never agree to back down, since he's obviously enjoying himself right now, playing the international victim. President Obama has announced that he will give a televised speech on Monday evening. Perhaps then we'll know everything. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China bitterly attacks Libya military intervention" China could have vetoed the UN resolution authorizing the Libya military intervention, but was talked into abstaining through the charms of two women, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and UN Ambassador Susan Rice. But now the Chinese appear to regret this action, if we're to judge from the following, appearing in the state-run media <#stdurl http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-03/28/c_13800622.htm "Xinhua"#>:
"The ongoing West-led "Odyssey Dawn" military operation against Libya, which was launched on March 19, apparently is adding fuel to the fire of the Libyan crisis instead of bringing the light of "dawn" to the North African country. The operation, dominated by Western powers including France, Britain, the United States and Italy, has caused huge civilian casualties, building and infrastructure damage and hundreds of thousands of refugees. It has escalated the Libyan conflict, which started in mid-February. It apparently has overstepped the authorization of the UN resolution on Libya adopted on March 17, raised questions and triggered disturbance in the region and around the world at large. ... Meanwhile, the operation was initiated under the pretext of "humanitarian" assistance and protecting Libyan civilians, but the results, ironically, turned out to be more civilian deaths and a deteriorating humanitarian crisis. Libyan authorities said over 100 civilians had been killed by the air strikes, and the UN Refugee Agency said over 350,000 Libyan refugees had fled the country up to Wednesday. ... In Homer's glorious ancient Greek epic poem "The Odyssey," the Greek hero Odysseus, after the fall of the Troy city, finally managed to return home and accomplished his long-cherished dream after a 10-year arduous trek. However, the West-led Odyssey Dawn operation is complicating and worsening the situation in Libya and bringing about more sufferings to the Libyan people. The real "dawn" for the Libyan people, alleged as the operation's aim, apparently is still far, far away."Imagine that - a Beijing blogger quoting Homer! =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 China's food imports keep rising, while exports fall <#inc ww2010.pic g110327b.gif right "" "China's corn imports and exports (WSJ)"#> A high level agricultural official, Chen Xiwen, is criticizing China's policy of demanding that each year's grain harvest be larger than the previous year's setting a new record each year. "Chasing ever-higher output levels may mean over-fertilization and unsafe agriculture," said Chen, indirectly referencing the Law of Diminishing Returns. China's grain imports have risen substantially in recent years, while exports have fallen. "China used to be the world's largest soybean producer, now it's the world's largest soybean importer," said Chen. <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703784004576220291166000526.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =// .h4 Iran speaks out against Syria's pro-democracy protesters 12 more protesters were killed on Sunday by Syria's army, after two days of fierce anti-government protests in the port city of Latakia. Iran, which considers Syria an ally, is portraying Syria's protesters as "agitators." But Iran has spoken out in support of protesters in Bahrain, Yemen, Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. Of course, Iran's government has never had a kind word for peaceful protesters at home. <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/27/syrian-army-protest-spreads "Guardian"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=703 "28-Mar-11 News -- Libya's rebels sweep towards Tripoli, as Nato reaches some mysterious agreement"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110327 27-Mar-11 News -- South Korea commemorates Cheonan warship attack, while North starves =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110327.head 27-Mar-11 News -- South Korea commemorates Cheonan warship attack, while North starves =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110327.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110327.loc ww2010.weblog.log1103 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110327.date 27-Mar-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110327.txt1 South Korea still demands an apology from the North =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110327.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "South Korea commemorates Cheonan warship attack, while North starves" The sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan, which occurred a year ago on March 26, has had a profound effect on relations between the U.S. and China, as well as between North and South Korea. <#inc ww2010.pic g100415.jpg center "" "South Koreans raise the sunken ship, the Cheonan, in April 2010"#> The Cheonan sank when a torpedo exploded, killing 46 people. Few people doubt that the torpedo was launched by the North Koreans, but war between North and South Korea was avoided by a strange diplomatic dance by the South Koreans. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e100501 ""1-May-10 News -- S. Korean and Chinese leaders meet to discuss warship sinking""#>) North and South Korea were still technically at war, since the Korean war of the 1950s resulted in an armistice, not a peace agreement. North and South Korea had appeared to be moving toward some kind of peace agreement, and some people fantasized that the North and South could be reunited without bloodshed. The sinking raised strong nationalistic feelings among the South Koreans, and many were demanding military retaliation. In order to avoid military action, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak artfully avoided accusing the North of being responsible for the explosion, for fear that merely saying so would also compel him to a declaration of war. He promised "resolute and unwavering" action over the warship sinking, once the international investigation has been completed, but then extended the investigation for many weeks. By the time the investigation was completed, tempers had cooled. The investigation found that the torpedo exploded beneath the warship, causing a "shockwave and bubble effect" that fractured and split the ship. As part of the investigation, South Koreans trawled the sea floor beneath the site of the explosion and were able to recover torpedo parts that could be unambiguously identified as North Korea. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e100521 ""21-May-10 News -- S. Korea accuses N. Korea of sinking warship""#>) Finally the South Koreans had no choice but to accuse the Norks of sinking the Cheonan. This infuriated the Norks, who threatened war -- which they do on a regular basis anyway. The Chinese refused to endorse the findings of the international investigation. The South Koreans have adopted a number of "retaliatory" measures, short of military reprisals. They've conducted navy military drills off the coast, near the North Korean line, including joint exercises with American aircraft carriers. They've conducted a propaganda campaign, sending balloons with propaganda messages across the border into the North. Each of these acts brings as a response a hysterical threat of war from the North. In November, the North Koreans shelled Yeonpyeong Island, a South Korean island near North Korea's maritime border. The attack killed several South Korean civilians, and almost did result in war. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e101124 ""24-Nov-10 News -- South Korean civilians shelled by North Koreans.""#>) China refused to condemn the North Koreans. The Chinese proposed a resumption of the 6-way talks, but that proposal was rejected by the U.S. and South Korea, since it would appear to be rewarding North Korea for their attack. The South Koreans became increasingly frustrated with the Chinese, who seem more interested in diverting attention away from the North Korean actions. The South Koreans are particularly angry at the Chinese for apparently sabotaging a United Nations investigation of the Yeonpyeong Island attack. These events have significantly worsened US-Chinese relations, although Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was able to convince the Chinese recently not to veto the resolution authorizing military intervention in Libya -- a decision which the Chinese now probably regret. All of this comes at a time when much of North Korea is close to starvation, according to a report by the <#stdurl http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/retrieveattachments?openagent&shortid=VVOS-8FALSH&file=Full_report.pdf "World Food Program (PDF)."#> According to the report, North has suffered a series of agricultural shocks in recent months, including very heavy rains in September and October of last year, reducing the rice and maize crops, and much colder than normal temperaturs in December and January, resulting in an expected 25% reduction in winter wheat yields. The Public Distribution System will run out of food in May, and more than six million people will be in urgent need of international food assistance. South Korea has provided food to the North in the past, but last year refused any further food aid until the North apologizes for the Cheonan and Yeonpyeong Island attacks. Because of the severity of the food situation in the North, the South Koreans have announced that they will resume humanitarian aid for North Korean children only -- powdered milk, nutritional cookies, and medical supplies -- according to <#stdurl http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/03/24/2011032400497.html "Chosun."#> It's now been four months since the attack on Yeonpyeong Island. If we're to judge from history, it's almost time for a new North Korean provocation of some kind. I've felt for a long time that the North Koreans believe that they have nothing to lose by a war with the South. They know that the 1950s Korean War ended in an armistice, and they know that they've paid no price for subsequent provocations. I have little doubt that in some file cabinet in Pyongyang there's plan that says they can capture Seoul overnight by sending a few hundred thousand N. Korean troops south across the border. They may even believe that once they've done that, the Americans will simply leave and let the Koreans work things out by themselves -- with the North Koreans running the show. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=702 "27-Mar-11 News -- South Korea commemorates Cheonan warship attack, while North starves"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110326 26-Mar-11 News -- Syrian troops shoot to kill as tens of thousands protest across Syria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110326.head 26-Mar-11 News -- Syrian troops shoot to kill as tens of thousands protest across Syria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110326.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110326.loc ww2010.weblog.log1103 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110326.date 26-Mar-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110326.txt1 Protesters try to topple statue of president Assad's father =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110326.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syrian troops shoot to kill as tens of thousands protest across Syria" Syrian troops opened fire on demonstrators on Friday, as tens of thousands of people poured out of the mosques after midday prayers and staged protests against the government of president Bashar al-Assad, according to the <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/protests-sweep-through-syria-as-troops-open-fire-2253431.html "Independent."#>
[youtube 9flGn0y2_d0 nolink]
The BBC and other news organizations were prevented from covering the protests, but Assad's security forces were reported to have killed at least 20 people near Deraa in southern Syria. The conciliatory atmosphere surrounding the concessions that were made on Thursday (see <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110325 ""25-Mar-11 News -- Syria's desperate president Assad tries concessions to appease protesters""#>) apparently did not last more than a few hours. The protests were triggered over a week ago when security forces arrested a dozen children in Deraa for writing anti-government graffiti on a wall. Since then, Deraa has been the center of most of the protests. Around Damascus, police used batons to break up demonstrations of around a thousand people. There were rallies in most other Syrian cities. In an extraordinary show of defiance, footage posted on Youtube (see video above) shows protesters in Deraa trying to topple a statue of the late president Hafez Assad, the current president's father. The protestors were driven off by gunfire, presumably from the security forces, according to the <#stdurl http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2011/03/syria-.html "LA Times."#> I can remember nostalgically periods last year when days would go by and there was hardly anything to write about. Now there are about ten crises going on simultaneously, and it's very hard to keep up. The world is changing very quickly and very dramatically. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=701 "26-Mar-11 News -- Syrian troops shoot to kill as tens of thousands protest across Syria"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110325 25-Mar-11 News -- Syria's desperate president Assad tries concessions to appease protesters =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110325.head 25-Mar-11 News -- Syria's desperate president Assad tries concessions to appease protesters =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110325.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110325.loc ww2010.weblog.log1103 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110325.date 25-Mar-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110325.txt1 Circus continues as Nato takes command of Libya No-Fly Zone =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110325.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria's desperate president Assad tries concessions to appease protesters" Syria's president Bashar al-Assad made historic concessions to young protesters on Thursday, in a desperate effort to head off the fate of leaders of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and other targets of "Arab Revolutions," according to the <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12856553 "BBC."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110324.jpg center "" "Left: Bouthaina Shaaban speaking at press conference on Thursday. Right: Dead protesters in Deraa on Wednesday. (EuroNews)"#> The concessions come as democracy activists have called for massive demonstrations on Friday, celebrating "Dignity Friday." The demonstrations are to start after midday prayers, when thousands of people pour out of mosques onto the streets. The concessions were announced by Buthaina Shaaban, Assad's media advisor, according to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-24/syrian-protest-demands-legitimate-after-death-reports-assad-adviser-says.html "Bloomberg."#> They include economic reforms and political reforms, including the dismissal of a deeply unpopular governor. Most surprising were the announced intentions to provide political freedoms, including a draconian "state of emergency" that's been in effect since 1963. The democracy protests began last Friday, and have been growing. They were entirely unexpected, since demonstrations have been rare in Syria. Thousands took to the streets on Wednesday in Deraa in southern Syria, near the Jordan border. Protesters chanted, "Traitors do not kill their own people. God, Syria, Freedom. The blood of martyrs is not spilled in vain!" The <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/24/syria-shootings-daraa-government "Guardian"#> quotes rights activists as saying that security forces shot and killed more than 100 people. In her press conference on Thursday, Shaaban denied that security forces had killed anyone, and she blamed the killings on al-Qaeda and other foreign terrorists. The concessions are not expected to satisfy the protesters, according to an analyst quoted by <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/24/us-syria-idUSTRE72N2MC20110324 "Reuters."#> "When you first hear it you think they're making major concessions, but when you look at it you realize there's not a lot there besides the salary boost. You understand the regime is in a very difficult spot and they're flustered." =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Circus continues as Nato takes command of Libya No-Fly Zone" In a bizarre twist of diplomacy, Nato member states agreed on Thursday to assume command of a no-fly zone over Libya, according to <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/NATO-Takes-Command-of-Libya-No-Fly-Zone-118621849.html "VOA."#> However, the US will retain command for other operations, especially protecting Libyan civilians from Muammar Gaddafi's forces on the ground. Turkey, in particular, was opposed to authorizing Nato to take any action that might allow "Turkish bombs" to kill any Libyan civilians, even as collateral damage. The current compromise meets Turkey's objections. However, the U.S. still has the major part of the command responsibility, and also supplies most of the assets. The administration has said that it intends to turn all command responsibility over to someone else, but so far it is not known how that will occur. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Portugal's Prime Minister Jose Socrates resigns Portugal's Prime Minister Jose Socrates resigned on Thursday, throwing Portugal and the euro currency into a new crisis. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-24/bunds-rise-on-safety-demand-as-portugal-s-prime-minister-quits-over-cuts.html "Bloomberg"#> =// .h4 Turkey launches air strikes against PKK Kurds in northern Iraq Turkey is objecting to Nato air strikes in Libya, but they're launching their own air strikes aainst the PKK Kurds in northern Iraq. <#stdurl http://www.todayszaman.com/news-238856-report-turkey-launches-airstrikes-in-northern-iraq.html "Zaman"#> =// .h4 Israel and Hamas exchange attacks The Israel/Gaza border war continued on Thursday. The Israel Air Force bombed a Hamas arms depot, after two rockets and several mortars were fired from Gaza into southern Israel. <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/israel-strikes-arms-depot-in-gaza-following-palestinian-rocket-fire-1.351632 "Haaretz"#> =// .h4 France asks UN to stop the fighting in Ivory Coast As the numbers of deaths and atrocities grow in Ivory Coast, France is seeking a United Nations committment to do more to stop the fighting. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-24/france-seeks-un-steps-to-end-ivory-coast-unrest-amid-attacks-on-civilians.html "Bloomberg"#> =// .h4 Relations between U.S. and Saudi Arabia worsen As we reported several times, Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah was furious with the Obama administration for throwing Egypt's president Hosni Mubarak under the bus so quickly. As the administration has repeatedly failed to side with Arab leaders in the "Arab Revolutions," the gulf in Saudi-American relations is growing larger. The Gulf nations have always depended on the US for protection, but now the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) of nations is planning to take on the responsibility of protecting itself. This development is consistent with the Generational Dynamics prediction that Sunni Muslim countries will be allied with Pakistan and China, while Iran, India and Israel will be allied with the West in the Clash of Civilizations world war. <#stdurl http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/03/24/2132691/arab-spring-drives-wedge-between.html "McClatchy"#> =// .h4 China and Indonesia to strengthen defense cooperation China and Indonesia have agreed to strengthen their defense cooperation, including the joint production of missiles. <#stdurl http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/03/23/indonesia-china-strengthen-defense-cooperation.html "Jakarta Post"#> =// .h4 Putin and Medvedev pull farther apart When Russian President Dmitry Medvedev publicly criticized Prime Minister Vladimir Putin for comparing the Libyan intervention to "a medieval call for a crusade," he revealed a larger split between the two leaders. Putin wanted Russia to veto the UN revolution, but Medvedev overruled him and allowed an abstention. Putin wishes to pursue a more confrontational policy with the West, while Medvedev wishes a friendlier policy. This policy disagreement is fundamental, and pulling them apart, as the 2012 presidential election approaches. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37691&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=4768501f1f1ec9ca463cba79d8f6a855 "Jamestown"#> =// .h4 Russia's North Caucasus slips further into chaos The conflict between Russian authorities and the Muslim population of the North Caucasus (Russia's southern provinces) is deepening. Just in the first half of March alone there were dozens of victims resulting from the confrontation between the authorities and the armed opposition as the North Caucasus slips further and further into chaos. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37693&tx_ttnews[backPid]=27&cHash=ee530af0de42bab639fe98b5de743e00 "Jamestown"#> =// .h4 Florida courts going bankrupt from foreclosure robo-signer scandal The Florida court system is going bankrupt because the number of mortgage foreclosures has fallen dramatically. Filing fees for each foreclosure is $400-$2000, and the number of foreclosure filings has fallen from a high of 39,114 in March 2009 to a recent low of 8,205 February. The number of foreclosure filings has plummeted because several banks have imposed foreclosure moratoriums on themselves, following the "robo-signing" crisis. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e101022 ""22-Oct-10 News -- Foreclosure mess turns into a major crisis.""#>) Banks used computerized "robo-signers" to process tens of thousands of foreclosure notices without having each set of documents reviewed by a human being, and that's become a crisis, causing a foreclosure moratorium, and bankrupting the courts. Schadenfreude, anyone? <#stdurl http://www.tampabay.com/news/courts/state-courts-declare-financial-emergency-seek-help/1158797 "St. Petersburg Times"#> =// .h4 Detroit's population falls 25% to World War I levels Detroit was once the fourth largest city in the United States, but economic problems have caused Detroit to lose 25% of its population in the last decade, after losing population steadily since the 1950s. Detroit's population is now at World War I levels. <#stdurl http://www.detnews.com/article/20110323/METRO01/103230387/1409/METRO/Detroit%E2%80%99s-population-falls-25---Bing-wants-recount "Detroit News"#> =// .h4 Chavez blames capitalism for no life on Mars Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez says that capitalism is to blame for why there's no life on Mars. <#stdurl http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/03/22/chavez-says-capitalism-destroyed-life-mars/ "Fox News"#> =// .h4 Yes, sex can kill you Yes, sex can kill you. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/22/us-heart-exercise-idUSTRE72L6KR20110322 "Reuters"#> =// .h4 Men may be jerks ... but women are insane. Men may be jerks ... but women are insane. <#stdurl http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/03/23/men_may_be_jerksbut_women_are_insane__109324.html "Real Clear Politics"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=700 "25-Mar-11 News -- Syria's desperate president Assad tries concessions to appease protesters"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110324 24-Mar-11 News -- Jerusalem bombing comes as Gaza/Israel border war may escalate =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110324.head 24-Mar-11 News -- Jerusalem bombing comes as Gaza/Israel border war may escalate =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110324.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110324.loc ww2010.weblog.log1103 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110324.date 24-Mar-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110324.txt1 Europe's bonds, Cairo's stocks, and America's homes show worsening financial trends =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110324.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Jerusalem bombing comes as Gaza/Israel border war may escalate" A bomb blast at a Jerusalem bus stop on Wednesday killed one person and wounded dozens others, according to <#stdurl http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/jerusalem-bomb-kills-one-injures-at-least-35 "The National (UAE)."#> Nobody has claimed responsibility fo the bombing, but Israeli police suspect Palestinian terrorists. <#inc ww2010.pic g110323d.jpg right "" "Jerusalem bomb kills one, injures dozens"#> According to a report by <#stdurl http://debka.com/article/20793/ "Debka"#>:"[T]he attack was professionally executed by a team of three to five with local aid from East Jerusalem Palestinians. While the authorities have reassured the city that it was a one-off attack, intelligence and terror experts are certain a terrorist organization activated trained bombers and may do so again. The 1-2 kilogram device planted in a suitcase was detonated at one of the busiest corners of Jerusalem, where taxis wait to pick up out-of-town arrivals and two buses take on passengers. The site of attack must have been picked in advance, with the bomber waiting in a getaway car nearby to detonate the device as one of the buses was pulling away and drive off to Arab Jerusalem or the West Bank before the police arrived. This method is familiar from the 2003-2006 Palestinian war of terror. The police initially set up road blocks on the highway to Tel Aviv before realizing too late that the bombers had headed east."Many analysts believe that a splinter terrorist group planted the bomb, and that Hamas was not responsible, according to <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/mess-report/hamas-unlikely-to-be-behind-jerusalem-bombing-1.351459 "Haaretz."#> Nonetheless, the bombing comes at a time when a border conflict between Gaza and Israel is escalating, for the first time since the war between Israel and Gaza ended early in 2009. It began last week, when some Palestinian analysts were saying that Hamas was launching mortar shells into southern Israel in order to provoke an Israeli response to end youth protests demanding Hamas/Fatah reconciliation. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110321 ""21-Mar-11 News -- March 15 reconciliation movement triggers Hamas attacks on Israel.""#>) Al-Quds Brigades of Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility for some of the missile attacks on Israeli towns. In response, the Israel Air Force has been stepping up attacks on Gaza, according to the <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=213546 "Jerusalem Post."#> Israeli airstrikes have targeted smuggling tunnels along the Gaza-Egypt border, and a Hamas training camp in central Gaza. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Violence in southern Syria escalates" The escalation along this border comes at a time when violence is also escalating in Deraa in southern Syria, near the border to Jordan. On Wednesday, Syrian security forces attacked a mosque that had been the focus of anti-government demonstrations, according to the <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/24/syria-crackdown-shooting "Guardian."#> Syrian security forces opened fire on scores of young protesters from surrounding towns as they offered support to the protests. At least 15 protesters were shot dead on Wednesday, and dozens more were injured. Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a new war, re-fighting the genocidal war between Arabs and Jews that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel in 1948. A couple of weeks ago I pointed out that it was the periphery of the Mideast (Tunisia, Yemen, Bahrain, Libya) that was becoming unstable first, and I suggested that the instability would begin to spread toward the "center." That now appears to be happening, as the instability is spreading to Palestine and Jerusalem, with Israel in conflict with Hamas, and the United States and Europe involved in Libya. Everyone is expecting all of these conflicts and revolutions to simmer down after a while, and possibly they will. But the US, Europe and the Mideast are in a generational Crisis era, which makes this time quite different from the 1990s. In the 1990s, with the Silent Generation still in place, people were much more conciliatory and willing to compromise. But today, with the Boomers and Gen-Xers in positions of power, people are "attracted" towards confrontation and conflict, rather than conciliation and compromise. This means that a conflict that might have fizzled out in the 1990s is more likely to escalate in 2011. So it's possible that the various Arab Revolutions and border conflicts will simmer down, but in a generational Crisis era, it's more likely that they will continue to escalate and reach full scale war. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Europe's bonds, Cairo's stocks, and America's homes show worsening financial trends" Many of the financial problems that have been getting ignored began to reassert themselves this week. <#inc ww2010.pic g110323a.gif center "" "Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Spain 10-year bonds, 3/23/2011"#> Portugal's government is close to collapse on Wednesday, after the Parliament rejected an austerity ("stability and growth") plan proposed by prime minister José Sócrates, according to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-23/portugal-faces-lawmaker-vote-threatening-to-push-toward-election-bailout.html "Bloomberg."#> It's thought that this major political defeat will force Socrates to dissolve the government and call early elections. Portugal has been playing the same game the Ireland and Greece played, to no avail, last year before they were bailed out by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The game is to pretend, for as long as possible that there's no debt problem, and that there's no chance of default. However, as can be seen in the above array, the yield (interest rate) on Portugal's 10-year bonds has been increasing steadily during the last year, and now exceeds 7.5%. When investors demand higher yields, it means that investors believe that the likelihood of the country's default is increasing. A 7.5% bond yield is not per se a sign of crisis, but the continuing, steady increase is a cause for great concern. What REALLY creates the crisis atmosphere is the bond yields for Ireland and Greece. Those two countries were bailed out last year, and the politicians promised that the bailouts would guarantee that the two countries would NOT default. Ireland's bond yields now exceed 10%, and Greece's exceed 12%. The yields keep increasing even though both countries were "bailed out," and even though both countries have implemented sharp austerity programs to reduce debt. So, you can imagine being an MP in Portugal, deciding whether to vote for Socrates' austerity proposal, and looking at the above array of graphs, and thinking, "It's perfectly obvious that Portugal is not going to do any better than Greece or Ireland did, so why even bother to pass an austerity program? I might as well vote against it, and say we can do well without an austerity program. That's a lie, but who cares, as long as I get re-elected next time?" Certainly lying politicians, analysts and journalists are the norm these days, but in this case, it's really obvious. When these bailouts occurred last year, a number of analysts did the math and reported that both Ireland and Greece were in a debt spiral that was inescapable, and that it's IMPOSSIBLE for them to avoid default. Still, they all play the game, and aver that their countries will avoid default. Are they just lying, or do they have any justification at all for their aversion to the truth? There are two unrealistic assumptions that they and others make, either consciously or unconsciously. First, they believe that the current "recession" will pass, and that the global economy will return to the days of the huge real estate and credit bubbles. That's obviously impossible, but it's a visceral hope. Second, they believe that quantitative easing and other government programs are going to lead to inflation and hyperinflation, which would wipe all debts out. Once again, that's impossible, since financial institutions are still rapidly deleveraging, meaning that each week there's less money in the world than there was the week before, and the world is in a deflationary spiral. See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110214 ""14-Feb-11 News -- Bangladesh stock market continues free fall, while Cairo's remains closed""#> for further information. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Cairo stock exchange opens and crashes" As the riots began in Egypt, Cairo's stock exchange crashed, falling 20% in a few days. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110128 ""28-Jan-11 News -- Egypt stock market crashes as riots spread through Mideast.""#>) <#inc ww2010.pic g110323b.gif center "" "Cairo and Saudi Arabia stocks, 1/23/2011"#> The stock exchange reopened on Wednesday for the first time since January 27, and fell an additional 8.9% in a shortened trading day, according to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-23/egyptian-shares-slump-index-drops-to-lowest-since-april-09-after-closure.html "Bloomberg."#> Saudi Arabia's stock exchange has partially recovered from the collapse that occurred when the riots occurred in neighboring Bahrain. Officials are hoping that it will recover further, but that may depend on whether the Mideast "Arab revolutions" begin to stabilize. So far, they show no sign of doing so. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Real estate continues its decline from the huge bubble" I saw Robert Shiller, co-author of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, on Bloomberg TV a few days ago, and he said that the real estate bubble in 2004-2007 was the "biggest bubble in world history." Huh? How is that possible? At the time it was going on, there were a few people (like me) around who were calling it a huge bubble, but if you listened to the journalists and analysts and politicians on CNBC and Bloomberg TV, you were told that there was no real estate bubble at all. Mainstream financial analysts, economists and journalists would say, "Housing prices can't go down -- people have to live somewhere," and "Banks won't foreclose -- it's not in their interest to do so" and "These housing construction firms know what they're doing, and they wouldn't be building houses if it were just a bubble." What I mean is this: If it was the biggest real estate bubble in history, then it must have been bigger than a tsunami, and we don't have trouble seeing what a tsunami does. How come we can't see the biggest bubble in history? Well, sorry for the rant, but existing home sales fell 9.6% in February from January, much more than expected, according to the <#stdurl http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2011/03/feb_decline "National Association of Realtors,"#> the organization which, in 2005-2007, was the most notorious in claiming that there was no real estate bubble. Prices for existing homes fell 5.2% from February 2010. "Distressed homes" accounted for 39% of the sales. The percentage of all-cash sales was at an all-time record of 33%, because mortgages are generally unavailable to most buyers. That was existing home sales. Sales of new homes fell a phenomenal 16.9% to a record low in February, the lowest since records began in 1963, according to <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/23/usa-economy-idUSN2314144720110323 "Reuters."#> Bill McBridge at the <#stdurl http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/03/home-sales-distressing-gap.html "Calculated Risk"#> blog, has provided the following graph of the "Distressing Gap": <#inc ww2010.pic g110323c.gif center "" "'Distressing' Gap (Calculated Risk)"#> He describes this graph as follows:
"[T]his graph shows existing home sales (left axis) and new home sales (right axis) through February. This graph starts in 1994, but the relationship has been fairly steady back to the '60s. Then along came the housing bubble and bust, and the "distressing gap" appeared (due mostly to distressed sales). The gap is due mostly to the flood of distressed sales. This has kept existing home sales elevated, and depressed new home sales since builders can't compete with the low prices of all the foreclosed properties."On almost every day for the last three years, I've been hearing that "real estate has reached a bottom and will start to go up." The people saying this are the same people who said that there wasn't a housing bubble in the first place. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the worst of the financial crisis has not yet occurred. There's no way to know what the trigger will be, but in this report I've described three different possibililties -- a European debt crisis, stock market crashes in developing nations, and continuing collapse of the real estate market. The "Arab Revolutions" are destabilizing the Mideast more almost every day. Unless the Mideast begins to stabilize, the financial crisis trigger may be close. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=699 "24-Mar-11 News -- Jerusalem bombing comes as Gaza/Israel border war may escalate"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110323 23-Mar-11 News -- After massive disarray, Sarkozy announces Nato agreement for Libya =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110323.head 23-Mar-11 News -- After massive disarray, Sarkozy announces Nato agreement for Libya =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110323.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110323.loc ww2010.weblog.log1103 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110323.date 23-Mar-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110323.txt1 Border war between Gaza and Israel is escalating =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110323.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "After massive disarray, Sarkozy announces Nato agreement for Libya" Late on Tuesday, France's president Nicolas Sarkozy announced that he and president Barack Obama had reached an agreement to transfer from the United States to Nato the command of the military campaign in Libya. <#inc ww2010.pic g110322.jpg center "" "Libya military action, March 21-22 (BBC)"#> The statement said, "The two presidents have come to an agreement on the way to use the command structures of NATO to support the coalition," without giving any additional details, according to the <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12826744 "BBC."#> For several days, Obama has been seeking such a command transfer, to occur as quickly as possible. The administration has indicated that it does not want the U.S. to have a leadership role in the third simultaneous invasion of a Muslim country. This demand has led to something of a political circus in Brussels, as Nato ministers from different countries jockeyed with one another to demand that Nato take or not take command of the Libyan invasion. Turkey is a member of Nato, and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has led the way in opposing Nato involvement the invasion. <#stdurl http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=pm-criticizes-air-strikes-says-un-should-be-umbrella-for-humanitarian-operation-2011-03-22 "Hurriyet"#> quotes him as saying that the distribution of humanitarian aid in Libya is acceptable, but nothing more:
"We do not want Libya to become a second Iraq ... A civilization in Iraq collapsed within eight years. More than a million people were killed there. We will not participate with our fighting forces. It is impossible for us to think that our fighters would drop bombs over the Libyan people."Sarkozy has also been opposed to a Nato command, saying that it would send "the wrong message" to the Arab world. British prime minister David Cameron has been the strongest supporter of a Nato command. Thus, Sarkozy made a proposal early on Tuesday to have Britain and France jointly command the Libyan action, leaving Nato out of it. And so Sarkozy's evening announcement was quite a surprise. Sarkozy would like to take the lead in action on Libya because he's running for reelection next year, and has been suffering ruinous poll ratings, according to <#stdurl http://af.reuters.com/article/libyaNews/idAFLDE72K0EK20110322 "Reuters."#> Still the announcement of Nato involvement seems to indicate a defeat for him. Additional details on the Nato agreement were made available by the <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/22/libya-nato-us-france-uk "Guardian."#> According to the article:
"It resembles a medieval appeal for a crusade in which somebody calls upon somebody to go to a certain place and liberate it. ... In Bill Clinton's times. Yugoslavia and Belgrade were bombed. Bush sent armed forces into Afghanistan. A far-fetched and totally false pretext was used to invade Iraq, and the entire Iraqi leadership was eliminated, even children in Saddam Hussein's family died. "And now, it's Libya's turn -- under the pretext of protecting civilians. But it's the civilian population who dies during those airstrikes against (Libyan) territory. Where is the logic and the conscience? There is neither."However, Medvedev scolded Putin a few hours later:
"It is absolutely inexcusable to use expressions that, in effect, lead to a clash of civilizations -- such as 'crusades,' and so on. That is unacceptable. [Otherwise,] everything could end up in far worse shape than it is now. It is important to remember this."Both Putin and Medvedev are expected to be running for president in Russia's 2012 election. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Turkey blocks Nato participation in Libya The Obama administration would like to hand over command of the Libya intervention to another country in a matter of days, but finding an appropriate leader is proving to be difficult. The most obvious candidate is Nato, but Turkey is part of Nato, and Turkey is blocking Nato's participation in Libya. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,752222,00.html "Spiegel"#> =// .h4 Yemen's government continues to collapse Yemen's government continues to collapse, amid violence directed at protesters. On Monday, Yemen's ambassadors to Jordan, Egypt, Emirates, Algeria, China, Saudi Arabia, Czech Republic, and Syria all resigned, in protest to the violence. On Sunday, Yemeni Ambassadors in Pakistan, Qatar, Oman, Lebanon, Japan, UN, and Spain announced their support of the protesters. The protesters are demanding that President Ali Abdullah Saleh step down. <#stdurl http://yemenpost.net/Detail123456789.aspx?ID=3&SubID=3315&MainCat=3 "Yemen Post"#> =// .h4 Thousands continue protests in Syria For the fourth consecutive day, thousands of protesters took to the streets in Deraa in southern Syria, to protest corruption and to demand that Syria's president Bashar al Assad step down. Although most of the population is Sunni Muslim, the ruling elite in Syria are composed primarily of people who follow the Allawi religious sect, which is an independent religion with some elements of both Islam and Christianity. <#stdurl http://www.thenational.ae/featured-content/national-conversation/middle-contributors/reason-to-be-sceptical-about-a-new-dawn-in-syria?pageCount=0 "The National (UAE)"#> =// .h4 Clinton woman to be Playboy Playmate Clinton woman to be Playboy Playmate. <#stdurl http://new.bangordailynews.com/2011/03/17/news/waterville/clinton-woman-to-be-playboy-playmate/?ref=mostReadBox "Associated Press"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=697 "22-Mar-11 News -- Russian offer of Japanese resettlement raises xenophobic tensions"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110321 21-Mar-11 News -- March 15 reconciliation movement triggers Hamas attacks on Israel =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110321.head 21-Mar-11 News -- March 15 reconciliation movement triggers Hamas attacks on Israel =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110321.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110321.loc ww2010.weblog.log1103 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110321.date 21-Mar-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110321.txt1 Arab League support for attack on Libya is fraying =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110321.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "March 15 reconciliation movement triggers Hamas attacks on Israel" Israel has vowed to lash back at Hamas, after Hamas reversed a two-year old policy and took credit for launching anti-tank missiles and mortars into southern Israel, according to the <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=212933 "Jerusalem Post."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110320.jpg center "" "Gaza Palestinians demand reconciliation between factions"#> These were the worst attacks since Operation Cast Lead, the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, which ended in early 2009. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he viewed seriously the "criminal attacks by Hamas on Israeli citizens. Israel will take all necessary measures to defend its citizens." He added that the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) will consider resuming ground action in Gaza. Hamas announced that the reason for the attacks was the Israel Air Force attack Wednesday on a Hamas training camp. But that attack was a tit-for-tat result of Hamas missile strike a few hours earlier, according to an analysis by <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/hamas-attacked-israel-fearing-palestinian-reconciliation-1.350325 "Haaretz,"#> which points out that neither side wants a wider war at this time. However, the motivation for Hamas's attacks is far more complex, according to an analysis by the <#stdurl http://english.pnn.ps/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=9735 "Palestine News Network."#> While the world media have been focused on the "Arab Revolutions" occurring in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen and Libya, there is also one growing in the Palestinian territories. Known as the "March 15 Movement," it's a youth-driven movement demanding that the competing Palestinian factions, Fatah (Palestinian Authority (PA) / Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO)) versus Hamas, reconcile with one another. Fatah governs the West Bank, while Hamas governs Gaza, following a 2007 war between the two factions. The March 15 youth movement is still demonstrating against the Israelis, but this particular movement has as its objective the reconciliation of the two Palestinian factions. Hamas is opposed to any reconciliation, and so Hamas has reversed its position and is launching mortars into southern Israel, in the hope of triggering an Israeli incursion into Gaza, according to the analysis. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Fatah and Hamas represent two different generations. In America, the Republican party largely represents the older Boomer/Silent generations, while the Democratic party largely represents middle generation, Generation-X. The young Millennial generation is split between the two, but is mostly pissed off by the extreme ideological division and bickering between the two groups. In the Palestinian territories, Fatah represents the older generations, while Hamas represents the middle generation. The younger generation are pissed off at the division between the two, and are demanding reconciliation. Just as in America people on each side are loathe to give up their comfortable ideologically extreme positions, members of Hamas, particularly, are not willing to give up their ideological positions and their control of Gaza. Thus, they're promoting a conflict with Israel in order to end the March 15 movement. However, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas is pressing very hard for a reconciliation, according to the <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=212931 "Jerusalem Post."#> Abbas is asking for help from Egypt, and is planning to visit the Gaza Strip in the near future, to discuss reconciliation. According to the <#stdurl http://english.pnn.ps/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=9723&Itemid=58 "Palestine News Network,"#> thousands of non-partisan youth flooded into Gaza's central square as March 15 approached, but were driven back by Hamas security forces with batons and metal rods. Journalists were also attacked, and their cameras and tapes were confiscated. Apparently the only images of the demonstration that weren't destroyed are from the <#stdurl http://www.maanimages.com/ShowImage.php?photoid=121386 "Maan News Agency,"#> including the one shown at the beginning of this report. Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast will re-fight the genocidal war between Jews and Arabs that followed the 1948 partitioning of Palestine, and the creation of the state of Israel. As usual, Generational Dynamics tells you the final destination, but doesn't tell you the scenario that will occur to get there. Recent events since the beginning of the "Arab Revolution" indicate that the coming regional war will not be split simply along Arab/Jewish lines. The passions that surrounded the creation of the state of Israel in 1948 are in the past, and it would be a mistake to assume that the same behaviors and attitudes that were prevalent in the 1950s and 1960s are still prevalent today. The Arab nations have some of the highest birth rates in the world, meaning that the large young generations feel little or no connection to the attitudes of the past. I've previously suggested that it appears likely that Egypt will side with Israel and the West in the coming war. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.subref e110214 e110214c ""14-Feb-11 News -- Reader question about the Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood.""#>) It's also worth noting that al-Qaeda's influence appears to be collapsing in the region, though the terrorist group is still dangerous. =// (See "14-Feb-11 News -- Reader question about the Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood.") The Hamas/Fatah split, and the working relationship that the PA has had with Israel, indicate that even among the Palestinians, there may be some that take the side of Israel, when forced to make a choice between what they consider to be the lesser of two evils. In treacherous times like these, every assumption must be questioned, and nothing can be taken for granted. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Arab League support for attack on Libya is fraying" Qatar is the first Arab country to announce that it will join the Western coalition against Libya, according to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-20/qatar-says-it-will-join-libya-military-operations-as-arabs-back-offensive.html "Bloomberg."#> However, Arab League Secretary General Amre Moussa is now objecting to the amount of force being used in Libya, according to the <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/arab-league-condemns-broad-bombing-campaign-in-libya/2011/03/20/AB1pSg1_story.html "Washington Post."#> He said that the amount of force being used is not justified to implement a no-fly zone, and he would call a new Arab League meeting to reconsider their approval of the intervention. The Arabs are far from united about the Libyan invasion, according to a <#stdurl http://www.debka.com/article/20786/ "Debka"#> analysis. In particular, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Egypt are opposed to the operation, although they're keeping quiet for now. Furthermore, another weakness in the alliance is that it lacks an African partner. US officials had originally spoken of support form the African Union, but all governments of Africa are opposed to the ouster of Gaddafi, according to the analysis. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Yemen's ambassador to United Nations resigns over violence" President Ali Abdullah Saleh sacked his entire cabinet on Sunday, after continuing violence against anti-government protesters have left around 100 dead, many shot dead by government snipers, according to the <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/president-sacks-ministers-over-yemen-slaughter-2247781.html "Independent."#> Saleh has been in power since 1978, and the departure of his cabinet ministers leaves him increasingly isolated. The protesters are demanding that he step down. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Syria protesters torch buildings" Thousands of protesters took to the streets on Sunday in the city of Deraa in southern Lebanon, near the border of Jordan, One person was killed and scores injured when security forces used live rounds against protesters, according to <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/03/2011320113138901721.html "Al-Jazeera."#> Dozens were also treated for tear gas inhalation. Tunisia and Egypt are two countries where the trends are not worsening, but those are also the only two countries where the leaders stepped down almost immediately. These seems little chance of that happening in Bahrain, Yemen, Syria or Libya. Since January, the Mideast has become more unstable almost every day. This is a major trend in a generational Crisis era, when this kind of instability is likely to increase. If the trend continues, then there will be regional war by the end of the year. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=696 "21-Mar-11 News -- March 15 reconciliation movement triggers Hamas attacks on Israel"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110320 20-Mar-11 News -- U.S. launches operation 'Odyssey Dawn' against Libyan targets =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110320.head 20-Mar-11 News -- U.S. launches operation 'Odyssey Dawn' against Libyan targets =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110320.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110320.loc ww2010.weblog.log1103 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110320.date 20-Mar-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110320.txt1 Hamas resumes mortar attacks on southern Israel =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110320.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "U.S. launches operation 'Odyssey Dawn' against Libyan targets" On Saturday, there were two major themes in the news. One: The U.S. took the lead in the military attack on Libya, launching 110 Tomahawk cruise missiles against Gaddafi's missile and communications sites. Two: U.S. officials stumbled over themselves to say that the U.S. was not really leading the attack, except temporarily. <#inc ww2010.pic g110319.jpg center "" "Navy Vice Adm. William E. Gortney at Pentagon press briefing"#> French warplanes carried out the first air strkes on Saturday, just hours after French President Nicolas Sarkozy announced the launch of military action against Libya, according to <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g2YNGurSbI1DjBrJLW42uky4a-eA?docId=CNG.4ff2e782ea3c513ce60adb517b709f8e.911 "AFP."#> That was followed an hour later by the announcement by the U.S. <#stdurl http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=63225 "Dept. of Defense"#>:
"U.S. military forces are on the leading edge of the coalition operation, taking out Libya’s integrated air and missile defense system, Defense Department officials said. The ordnance is aimed at radars and anti-aircraft sites around the capital of Tripoli and other facilities along the Mediterranean coast. ... Cruise missiles from U.S. submarines and frigates began the attack on the anti-aircraft system. A senior defense official speaking on background said the attacks will “open up the environment so we could enforce the no-fly zone from east to west throughout Libya.” In addition to the cruise missiles, the United States will provide command and control and logistics. American airmen and sailors also will launch electronic attacks against the systems. The United Kingdom, France, Italy and Canada already have announced that they are part of the coalition. Officials expect Arab countries will publicly announce their participation soon."President Barack Obama made <#stdurl http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/03/19/remarks-president-libya "a statement"#> to explain why the U.S. military appears to be leading the military attack:
"As a part of this effort, the United States will contribute our unique capabilities at the front end of the mission to protect Libyan civilians, and enable the enforcement of a no-fly zone that will be led by our international partners. And as I said yesterday, we will not -- I repeat -- we will not deploy any U.S. troops on the ground. ... I've acted after consulting with my national security team, and Republican and Democratic leaders of Congress. And in the coming hours and days, my administration will keep the American people fully informed. But make no mistake: Today we are part of a broad coalition. We are answering the calls of a threatened people. And we are acting in the interests of the United States and the world."Commentators have emphasized that the success of this operation depends on participation by Arab countries. No Arab countries have yet announced that they will participate. However, representatives from Jordan, Morocco, Qatar and United Arab Emirates attended a Paris summit on Saturday to discuss the Libya operation, according to <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g2YNGurSbI1DjBrJLW42uky4a-eA?docId=CNG.4ff2e782ea3c513ce60adb517b709f8e.911 "AFP."#> The article quotes an unnamed diplomat as saying that Qatar will participate militarily, as will other European nations, including Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark and Norway. There's always a lot of euphoria whenever a war starts. When the American Civil War started, there was cheering and partying in Charleston, while the ladies of Washington considered the whole thing to be a joke. They all changed their minds a few months later, after the bloody Battle of Bull Run had 5,000 casualties. Perhaps the euphoria I heard today is justified. Perhaps all the Arab nations will join in, perhaps Muammar Gaddafi will be quickly forced to step down, and perhaps the quick and easy result that everyone is anticipating will occur. Or, perhaps there'll be problems, perhaps there'll be mission creep, and perhaps all the Arab nations that promised to help will back out, and will turn on the U.S. Perhaps there'll even be a American military catastrophe of some kind. With the U.S. involved in three simultaneous wars in three Muslim countries, there is very little to feel euphoric about. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia now regrets the Security Council resolution on Libya" Russia abstained during the vote on Thursday's UN Security Council resolution, authorizing the military assault on Libya. But now <#stdurl http://en.rian.ru/world/20110319/163099454.html "Ria Novosti"#> reports that a spokesman from Russia's Foreign Ministry is backing down from "the hastily adopted UN Security Council resolution." =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Hamas resumes mortar attacks on southern Israel" In other news on Saturday, Israel threatened to launch a new ground offensive against Hamas in Gaza, after Hamas reversed a two-year old policy and resumed mortar attacks into southern Israel, according to the <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-hamas-mortars-20110320,0,848642.story "LA Times."#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Saudi King Abdullah offers money to head off protests Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah promised a multibillion dollar package of reforms, raises, cash, loans and apartments on Friday, in an attempt to head off the violent protests that are occurring in other Arab nations. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hrx9RREP-XjNlAZi7owo0fQI7wrQ?docId=04bc687293f14301b0d2e68ee080364f "AP"#> =// .h4 Violence and refugee crisis grow in Ivory Coast Violence in Ivory Coast continues to escalate, and the United Nations refugee agency reports a significant rise in the number of refugees fleeing to neighboring Liberia and Ghana, straining resources there. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Exodus-Grows-As-Violence-Escalates-In-Ivory-Coast-118294464.html "VOA."#> =// .h4 Gender gap in the Obama administration There's a gender gap in the Obama administration, where women (Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and UN Ambassador Susan Rice) pushed hard for the assault on Libya, while the men (Defense Secretary Robert Gates, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen, and White House chief of staff William Daley) opposing the assault. Despite what feminists claim, women are more warlike than men, but that's no surprise to any man who's been through a divorce. <#stdurl http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/The-Vote/2011/0319/A-gender-gap-in-Obama-administration-s-approach-to-war "CS Monitor"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=695 "20-Mar-11 News -- U.S. launches operation 'Odyssey Dawn' against Libyan targets"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110319 19-Mar-11 News -- Obama takes international leadership for Libya military action =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110319.head 19-Mar-11 News -- Obama takes international leadership for Libya military action =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110319.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110319.loc ww2010.weblog.log1103 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110319.date 19-Mar-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110319.txt1 Bloody Friday spreads to Yemen and Syria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110319.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Obama takes international leadership for Libya military action" A week ago, the Obama administration had no position on a no-fly zone over Libya. The situation changed rapidly, and by Thursday the administration was in favor, but was working behind the scenes, allowing Britain and France to take the lead. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110318 ""18-Mar-11 News -- UN declares war after Gaddafi threatens 'moment of truth'""#>.) <#inc ww2010.pic g110318.jpg center "" "Cheering Benghazi residents watch President Obama live on large screen"#> On Friday, President Obama took the international lead in advocating military action against the regime of Muammar Gaddafi. In his <#stdurl http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/03/18/remarks-president-situation-libya "speech"#> on Friday, he said the following:
"Once again, Qaddafi chose to ignore the will of his people and the international community. Instead, he launched a military campaign against his own people. And there should be no doubt about his intentions, because he himself has made them clear. For decades, he has demonstrated a willingness to use brute force through his sponsorship of terrorism against the American people as well as others, and through the killings that he has carried out within his own borders. And just yesterday, speaking of the city of Benghazi -- a city of roughly 700,000 people -- he threatened, and I quote: “We will have no mercy and no pity” -- no mercy on his own citizens. Now, here is why this matters to us. Left unchecked, we have every reason to believe that Qaddafi would commit atrocities against his people. Many thousands could die. A humanitarian crisis would ensue. The entire region could be destabilized, endangering many of our allies and partners. The calls of the Libyan people for help would go unanswered. The democratic values that we stand for would be overrun. Moreover, the words of the international community would be rendered hollow. ... Now, once more, Moammar Qaddafi has a choice. The resolution that passed lays out very clear conditions that must be met. The United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Arab states agree that a cease-fire must be implemented immediately. That means all attacks against civilians must stop. Qaddafi must stop his troops from advancing on Benghazi, pull them back from Ajdabiya, Misrata, and Zawiya, and establish water, electricity and gas supplies to all areas. Humanitarian assistance must be allowed to reach the people of Libya. Let me be clear, these terms are not negotiable. These terms are not subject to negotiation. If Qaddafi does not comply with the resolution, the international community will impose consequences, and the resolution will be enforced through military action. In this effort, the United States is prepared to act as part of an international coalition. American leadership is essential, but that does not mean acting alone -– it means shaping the conditions for the international community to act together. ... Let me close by saying that there is no decision I face as your Commander in Chief that I consider as carefully as the decision to ask our men and women to use military force. Particularly at a time when our military is fighting in Afghanistan and winding down our activities in Iraq, that decision is only made more difficult. But the United States of America will not stand idly by in the face of actions that undermine global peace and security. So I have taken this decision with the confidence that action is necessary, and that we will not be acting alone. Our goal is focused, our cause is just, and our coalition is strong. Thank you very much."Big crowds of cheering Libyans watched the speech on a huge television screen in central Benghazi. Although Obama took pains to mention that the US was not acting alone, it seemed clear to the cheering crowds this was Obama's show. President Obama's speech is receiving criticism because he did not demand that Gaddafi step down. Libya's foreign minister announced on Friday that Libya would abide by the UN Security Council resolution, and would abide by a cease-fire. However, al-Jazeera kept reporting continuing attacks by Gaddafi's forces on civilians. Susan Rice, America's ambassador to the U.N., accused Gaddafi of violating the cease-fire. She told <#stdurl http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/03/18/libya.civil.war/ "CNN"#> that the "U.S. is ready to act" and that Gadhafi "should be under no illusions that if he doesn't act immediately he will face swift and sure consequences, including military action." She added, "We are focused immediately on protection of civilians, on ensuring that the march to Benghazi does not continue and that those who are most vulnerable have the rights and protections that they deserve." The U.S. is now fully committed to preventing a massacre, or anything that appears to be sufficiently like a massacre, against Libyan civilians. Any military action is permitted except, apparently, the use of foreign troops on the ground in Libya. British and French aircraft will participate, but it remains to be seen whether any Arab League countries will participate. Either way, the US is now in the lead in foreign wars in three different Muslim countries. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Bloody Friday spreads to Yemen and Syria" Many of the biggest protests have occurred on Fridays, as people pour out of the mosques after midday prayers. On this Friday, violence in Yemen reached a new high, and the first large demonstration occurred in Syria. Yemen's president Ali Abdullah Saleh declared a nationwide state of emergency, after a violent crackdown on anti-government protests killed at least 41 people, and left scores more wounded, in the capital Sanaa, according to <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/03/2011318115434957754.html "Al-Jazeera."#> This is the worst violence in Yemen in decades. There was no indication how long the state of emergency would last. Public protests were almost unknown in Syria, until now. On Friday in the city of Deraa in the south of Syria, near the border with Jordan, several thousand people conducted anti-government demonstrations, chanting, "God, Syria, Freedom," according to <#stdurl http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFLDE72H1U520110318 "Reuters."#> Security forces were reinforced with troops flown in by helicopters. At least three people were killed, and dozens more were wounded. So if you're keeping score, the "Arab Revolution" has now spread to the following countries: Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen, Libya and Syria. The U.S. is involved in wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Young protesters in Iraq develop Iraq-based identity Young protesters in Iraq's generational Awakening period are developing their own voice: "What we have passed through is like a dark dream. We believe in Iraq as the primary identity, not sect or religion." In 2006 and 2007, when the NY Times, NBC News, and others on the left were saying that Iraq was in a worsening Sunni/Shia civil war, I pointed out that a civil war was impossible, and that Iraqis have historically considered themselves to be Iraqis first, and Sunnis or Shia second. (See <#hreftext ww2010.i.iraq070401 ""Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq""#> from 2007.) This new youth movement would be repeating that historical trend. <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in-iraq-protests-a-younger-generation-finds-its-voice/2011/03/13/ABfImre_story.html "Washington Post"#> =// .h4 Al-Qaeda has been irrelevant in recent Arab uprisings Al-Qaeda has essentially been irrelevant in the recent Arab uprisings, with its regional appeal declining and its networks under severe pressure everywhere. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37661&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=6b105a3963f525f1f8250b4a33ccb533 "Jamestown"#> =// .h4 Saudi/US relations are still frosty Saudi Arabian officials, led by King Abdullah, are still furious that President Obama threw Egypt's president Hosni Mubarak under the bus so quickly, and now Obama has almost no influence in Saudi Arabia. In particular, "King Abdullah has been clear that Saudi Arabia will never allow Shia rule in Bahrain — never." <#stdurl http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/18/world/18diplomacy.html "NY Times"#> =// .h4 Japan nuclear disaster caps decades of faked reports, accidents The unfolding disaster at the Fukushima nuclear plant follows decades of falsified safety reports, fatal accidents and underestimated earthquake risk in Japan’s atomic power industry. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-17/japan-s-nuclear-disaster-caps-decades-of-faked-safety-reports-accidents.html "Bloomberg"#> =// .h4 Guardian: US military 'manipulates' social media London's left-wing Guardian newspaper whines that the US military has developed software allowing it to control separate identities on online social networks. (LOL! Everyone does this, and you don't need special software.) <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2011/mar/17/us-spy-operation-social-networks "Guardian"#> =// .h4 Russia considers the US, not Japan, to be its main enemy in Pacific Russia considers the United States, not Japan, to be its main enemy in the Pacific region. However, Russia's relationship with Japan is challenged by an acute crisis over the South Kurile islands, which used to belong to Japan, but which Russia took over after World War II. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37656&tx_ttnews[backPid]=27&cHash=6ab4e05330f746ddd5275a159162d741 "Jamestown"#> =// .h4 Salt water tsunami threatens Japan's rice production Adding to Japan's problems, the salt water tsunami may have ruined enough Japanese farmland that its national rice production will be threatened, requiring more imports of rice. <#stdurl http://www.agrimoney.com/news/tsunami-risk-to-japans-self-sufficiency-in-rice--2941.html "AgriMoney"#> =// .h4 News you can use: 25 techniques for disinformation. News you can use: 25 techniques for disinformation. <#stdurl http://preventdisease.com/news/10//081010_everything_is_a_lie.shtml "PreventDisease.com"#> =// .h4 Why would you date a man who can't punctuate? Why would you date a man who can't punctuate? <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/bryonygordon/8386585/Why-would-I-date-a-man-who-cant-punctuate.html "Telegraph"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=694 "19-Mar-11 News -- Obama takes international leadership for Libya military action"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110318 18-Mar-11 News -- UN declares war after Gaddafi threatens 'moment of truth' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110318.head 18-Mar-11 News -- UN declares war after Gaddafi threatens 'moment of truth' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110318.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110318.loc ww2010.weblog.log1103 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110318.date 18-Mar-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110318.txt1 Residents of Benghazi cheer the UN Security Council resolution =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110318.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "UN declares war after Gaddafi threatens 'moment of truth'" Libya's leader Muammar Gaddafi's televised speech on Thursday, threatening that "the moment of truth had come" for Benghazi, motivated the United Nations Security Council to quickly approve a resolution permitting "all necessary means" to be used to prevent the "slaughter of civilians." <#inc ww2010.pic g110317.jpg center "" "Defiant Benghazi residents shout angry slogans at Gaddafi, as they listen to his speech."#> Early reports indicate that Gaddafi's air force is striking targets and dropping bombs in Benghazi, but that ground forces are still too far away. Commentators do not believe that Saif Gaddafi's claims on Wednesday of victory within 48 hours will be realized. The U.N. vote was met with wild cheers and celebratory gunfire in Benghazi. Al-Jazeera is reporting is that Egypt began shipping weapons across the border to opposition fighters minutes after the U.N. vote. France says that air strikes will begin within hours. The vote by the Security Council was 10-0, with five abstentions. The US, UK, France, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Gabon, Lebanon, Nigeria, Colombia, South Africa and Portugal voted to approve the resolution, while China, Russia, Brazil, Germany and India abstained. The following are the important excerpts from the UN resolution:
"The Security Council, ... Expressing grave concern at the deteriorating situation, the escalation of violence, and the heavy civilian casualties, ... Condemning the gross and systematic violation of human rights, including arbitrary detentions, enforced disappearances, torture and summary executions, ... Recalling the condemnation by the League of Arab States, the African Union, and the Secretary General of the Organization of the Islamic Conference of the serious violations of human rights and international humanitarian law that have been and are being committed in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, ... 4. Authorizes Member States that have notified the Secretary-General, acting nationally or through regional organizations or arrangements, and acting in cooperation with the Secretary-General, to take all necessary measures ... to protect civilians and civilian populated areas under threat of attack in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, including Benghazi, while excluding a foreign occupation force of any form on any part of Libyan territory. 5. Recognizes the important role of the League of Arab States in matters relating to the maintenance of international peace and security in the region, ... requests the Member States of the League of Arab States to cooperate with other Member States in the implementation of paragraph 4; 6. Decides to establish a ban on all flights in the airspace of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya in order to help protect civilians; ... 13. Calls upon all Member States, in particular States of the region, ... in order to ensure strict implementation of the arms embargo ..., to inspect in their territory, including seaports and airports, and on the high seas, vessels and aircraft bound to or from the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, if the State concerned has information that provides reasonable grounds to believe that the cargo contains items the supply, sale, transfer or export of which is prohibited, ... including the supply of armed mercenary personnel, calls upon all flag States of such vessels and aircraft to cooperate with such inspections and authorises Member States to use all measures commensurate to the specific circumstances to carry out such inspections; ... 17. Decides that all States shall deny permission to any aircraft registered in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya or owned or operated by Libyan nationals or companies to take off from, land in or overfly their territory unless the particular flight has been approved in advance by the Committee, or in the case of an emergency landing; ..."Commentators are indicating that the phrase "all necessary means" takes this much farther than the minimum necessary to establish a no-fly zone. However, the resolution specifically excludes ground troops, much to the relief of a lot of people. Nonetheless, so much is allowed by this resolution, that almost anything can happen in the next few weeks. Here's the rousing conclusion of Gaddafi's speech to the people of Benghazi earlier in the day, according to <#stdurl http://blogs.aljazeera.net/live/africa/libya-live-blog-march-17 "Al-Jazeera's live blog"#>, where he refers to the opposition forces:
"They are finished, they are wiped out. From tomorrow you will only find our people. You all go out and cleanse the city of Benghazi. A small problem that has become an international issue. And they are voting on it tonight ... because they are determined. As I have said, we are determined. We will track them down, and search for them, alley by alley, road by road, the Libyan people all of them together will be crawling out. Massive waves of people will be crawling out to rescue the people of Benghazi, who are calling out for help, asking us to rescue them. We should come to their rescue. And I, Muammar Gaddafi, I will die for my people. With Allah's help. No more fear, no more hesitation, we are no longer reluctant. The moment of truth has come. If you see the cars with loudspeakers, destroy them, destroy their communications points that are spreading lies to you. Our children are the one's who have destroyed these planes. Just like Franco in Spain, who rolled into Madrid with external support. And they asked how did you manage to liberate Madrid? He said: 'There was a fifth column, the people of the city.' You are the fifth column within the city. This is the day on which we should liberate the city. We've been looking forward to that day. And tomorrow we will communicate again, and our cause will continue towards the south. With our bare chests and heads we were confronting the dangers, facing the challenge, we did not initiate this violence, they started it. Of course, these words will have an impact on the traitors and infidels. Tonight they will panic and they will collapse. You are capable of doing it. You are capable of achieving this. Let's set our women and daughters free from those traitors. God is great."As we've seen in the past, Gaddafi seems to be deeply in denial about what's going on in Benghazi, and how unpopular he is. In other news on Thursday, <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/17/us-kuwait-bahrain-idUSTRE72G8NR20110317 "Reuters"#> reports that Kuwait is sending its navy to Bahrain to protect Bahrain's waters. Kuwait is thus the second country from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), joining Saudi Arabia in injecting its armed forces into the growing Shia vs Sunni conflict in Bahrain. It was just a few days ago that the United States administration had no position on a no-fly zone in Libya, and China, Russia and Germany were adamantly opposed. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, we're in a generational Crisis era, and the Middle East seems every day closer to an explosion. How quickly things can change in a Crisis era! (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=693 "18-Mar-11 News -- UN declares war after Gaddafi threatens 'moment of truth'"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110317 17-Mar-11 News -- Saif Gaddafi says his forces will win within 48 hours =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110317.head 17-Mar-11 News -- Saif Gaddafi says his forces will win within 48 hours =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110317.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110317.loc ww2010.weblog.log1103 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110317.date 17-Mar-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110317.txt1 China buying cropland in Latin America =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110317.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Saif Gaddafi says his forces will win within 48 hours" Muammar Gaddafi's forces bombarded Benghazi, the stronghold of Libya's opposition, on Wednesday, and spread leaflets around the city suggesting to residents that they give up the fight against Gaddafi now, according to <#stdurl http://www.gmanews.tv/story/215458/world/gaddafi-shells-city-threatens-rebel-stronghold "Reuters."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110316.jpg center "" "Pro-Gaddafi forces celebrating victory in Ajdabiyah on Wednesday (Reuters)"#> In an interview with <#stdurl http://www.timeslive.co.za/africa/article970122.ece/Gaddafi-son-says-revolt-will-be-over-in-48-hours--TV "Reuters,"#> Saif al-Islam Gaddafi said, "The military operations are finished. In 48 hours everything will be over. Our forces are close to Benghazi. Whatever decision is taken [with respect to the no-fly zone], it will be too late." The prospect of a Gaddafi victory is causing some tempers to fray, because no decision is being reached on instituting a no-fly zone over Libya. Both BBC and al-Jazeera have been running interviews with people of Benghazi begging for help. A typical interview, usually of a young woman, goes something like, "Please don't forget us. We just want our freedom like everyone else. Please give us a no-fly zone so that Gaddafi can't kill us." In the European Parliament on Wednesday, some MEPs have been expressing disgust. <#stdurl http://english.ahram.org.eg/~/NewsContent/2/8/7878/World/Region/Angry-Euro-MPs-blast-EU-inaction-on-Libya.aspx "AFP"#> quotes ex-premier Guy Verhofstadt:
"There are thousands of heroes. We know who they are but Gaddafi knows as well. He knows their names and their families. If he takes Benghazi it will be nothing more than a massacre, a new Srebrenica, a new Rwanda, a new Darfur. This makes me sick of the EU. We have learnt nothing at all from history. When Gaddafi is back shall we say business as usual? Are we going to close our eyes again? Will we add one black page more to European history? I count on France, on Britain, on the US to take action — not on the EU!"This shows how the no-fly zone question is much more emotional in Europe than in the U.S., where most Americans couldn't find Libya on a map, or tell you what continent it's on. Europeans are still torn over WW II issues, with some younger Europeans often expressing xenophobia towards Muslims, and some older Europeans fearing that the lessons of the Holocaust have been forgotten. Indeed, France and Britain have been the main proponents of military intervention with a no-fly zone. The Obama administration has not taken a position either way, something that's drawn accusations of dithering. An analysis by the <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/15/no-fly-zone-over-libya "Guardian"#> lists the major players in each camp:
"The second point is we don't have the expertise to make any decisions about what kind of chemical agents were used the other day in the demonstrations. We are reasonably confident that the allegations that there was sarin or mustard gas used are not correct. First of all, if sarin were used, it's a highly lethal nerve gas, there would have been five hundred people dead, not one person dead. Secondly, mustard gas is a blistering agent that is very obvious if it's been used. Nobody has presented any evidence, nobody has presented anybody who demonstrated any of the symptoms of exposure to mustard gas or also of course to sarin. Based on our own best guess, we believe that probably what was used was tear gas and smoke."That there's public discussion of the use of sarin gas against unarmed protesters illustrates how hyperbolic the accusations on both sides have become. On Tuesday, gunfights between pro-regime loyalists and opposition forces resulted in the death of a major opposition leader, according to <#stdurl http://arabnews.com/middleeast/article318353.ece "Arab News."#> In other tribal violence on Tuesday, armed men attacked an oil pipeline carrying 120,000 barrels of oil per day to the Red Sea, forcing two oil fields to be shut down, according to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-15/yemen-attack-halts-120-000-barrel-a-day-oil-pipeline-marib-says.html "Bloomberg."#> The increased level of violence is devastating Yemen's economy, especially the local banks, according to the <#stdurl http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidZAWYA20110315084004/Yemen%3A%20%27Unrest%20creating%20chronic%20instability%27 "Islamic Globe."#> Investors and savers are withdrawing large amounts of cash in US dollars from the Yemeni banking system and ceasing contributions, creating "chronic instability" which is "paralyzing the local banks." =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Bahrain declares three month state of emergency and martial law" Violence also escalated on the streets of Bahrain on Tuesday, causing two more deaths, and over 200 new injuries, according to <#stdurl http://nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Politics/16-Mar-2011/Bahrain-slaps-martial-law "AFP."#> The three-month state of emergence will hand wholesale power to Bahrain's security forces, and this will undoubtedly stoke further conflicts. The world has changed very rapidly in the last couple of months. Japan is melting down, countries on the Arabian Peninsula, including Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Yemen, are facing anything from protests to sectarian violence, and global stock markets have become extremely volatile. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these are the kinds of breakdowns that occur in generational Crisis eras. Earthquakes, tsunamis and protests can occur in any era, and in non-crisis eras, countries and societiets can take them in their stride. But in a Crisis era, with the survivors of the previous crisis war (WW II) almost completely gone, countries and societies cannot take these events in stride, but allow them to turn into greater crises. That's what happening today, and what's expected to continue to happen in the months to come. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Thousands of Tunisian migrants land on Lampedusa Island <#inc ww2010.pic g110215b.gif right "" "Lampedusa Island"#> Thousands of migrants from Tunisia are landing on the tiny island of Lampedusa, which is Italian territory, hoping to be able to live and work in Europe. <#stdurl http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/03/15/tunisia.italy.migrants/ "CNN."#> =// .h4 Muammar Gaddafi's forces move to recapture east Libya Muammar Gaddafi's forces appear increasingly likely to win in Libya, as government forces are almost poised to recapture Benghazi back from the rebels. The UN Security Council is considering a no-fly zone resolution, but opposition by Germany, Russia and China makes it unlikely to pass. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/16/us-libya-idUSTRE7270JP20110316?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews "Reuters"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=691 "16-Mar-11 News -- Yemen fighting escalates after Saturday's attack on protesters"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110315 15-Mar-11 News -- Bahrain uprising becomes explosive as Saudi troops arrive =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110315.head 15-Mar-11 News -- Bahrain uprising becomes explosive as Saudi troops arrive =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110315.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110315.loc ww2010.weblog.log1103 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110315.date 15-Mar-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110315.txt1 Israel's army on high alert over Palestinian unity demonstrations =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110315.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Bahrain uprising becomes explosive as Saudi troops arrive" =// <#inc ww2010.pic PersianGulf.gif center "" "Persian Gulf region. =// Bahrain's 33 small islands are a tiny dot in this map"#> <#inc ww2010.mappic bahrain.gif right "" "Bahrain (Source: CIA Fact Book)"#> The Bahrain uprising dramatically escalated on Monday, when 1,000 Saudi troops poured across the King Fahd Causeway into Bahrain to help quell protests by mainly Shia demonstrators, according to <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/14/us-bahrain-protests-forces-analysis-idUSTRE72D83320110314 "Reuters."#> Bahrain's population is 2/3 Shia, but the government is led by Sunni tribal leaders. The Saudi intervention had been approved by the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which is dominated by Saudi Arabia. The GCC members are also part of the larger Arab League, which, on Saturday, approved international intervention in Libya. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110313 ""13-Mar-11 News -- Arab League unanimously requests a no-fly zone over Libya.""#>) The Saudis are motivated by concern that their own Shia population, making up 15% of the total population, will be "infected" by the Bahrain protests and start protesting themselves. Bahrain's responses to peaceful protests have been particularly violent, and have even shocked the international community. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110218 ""18-Feb-11 News -- Bahrain's government chooses the massacre scenario.""#>) Now, once again, the international community is shocked by this new development. The entry of foreign troops into Bahrain has surprised the Pentagon, according to <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/03/14/us.reaction.bahrain/ "CNN."#> Both the Obama administration and the United Nations are calling for restraint, but those calls are obviously not being heeded. The Generational Dynamics prediction, which I have been discussing for years, is that there will be a new Mideast war re-fighting the genocidal war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel in 1948. As usual, Generational Dynamics tells you what your destination will be, but doesn't tell you the scenario that will occur to get you there. I had always assumed that the war would start in the "center" -- in Israel, the Palestinian territories, Jordan, perhaps Egypt -- and spread outward to the other Mideast countries. But now we see the opposite happening: The wars are starting on the periphery of the Mideast -- Bahrain, Yemen, Libya -- and presumably will spread toward the center. Either way, the level of tension and conflict across the Mideast is growing. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Israel's army on high alert over Palestinian unity demonstrations Israel's armed forces (IDF) will be on high alert throughout the West Bank on Tuesday, as thousands of Palestinians are expected to participate in demonstrations against Israel and in support of Fatah-Hamas unity. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=212165 "Jerusalem Post"#> =// .h4 Poll: Europeans moving from Israelis to Palestinians A new poll shows that Europeans are increasingly turning away from support for Israel towards support for the Palestinians. The article puts forth a variety of unconvincing explanations for the change in attitude, but I'll stick with the most obvious explanation, the generational one. The tremendous worldwide sympathy for Israel, and indeed the original impetus for the approval of the creation of Israel, was the reaction to the Nazi Holocaust. But today, with the survivors of World War II almost gone, the memory of the Holocaust has lost its power. <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/mar/14/europe-israel-palestine-european-disconnect-public "Guardian"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=690 "15-Mar-11 News -- Bahrain uprising becomes explosive as Saudi troops arrive"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110314 14-Mar-11 News -- Mideast turmoil raises concerns in China over oil =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110314.head 14-Mar-11 News -- Mideast turmoil raises concerns in China over oil =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110314.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110314.loc ww2010.weblog.log1103 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110314.date 14-Mar-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110314.txt1 Tensions grow in the South China Sea and East China Sea =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110314.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Mideast turmoil raises concerns in China over oil" On Thursday, Libyan authorities sent a Chinese oil tanker back to China without its intended cargo of 2 million barrels of oil, according to <#stdurl http://af.reuters.com/article/algeriaNews/idAFTOE72904C20110310 "Reuters."#> The ship will go to Algeria instead, to purchase oil there. <#inc ww2010.pic SouthChinaSea.gif center "" "South China Sea, with blue line added to show region claimed by China as part of its sovereign territory, including oil and gas deposits"#> Events like this, arising out of the turmoil in the Mideast, are of great concern to China because of its enormous dependence on imported oil. China imports about 2.9 million barrels of oil a day from the Mideast, including 1.1 million barrels a day from Saudi Arabia alone, according to the <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704893604576198354263145980.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>. So the turmoil in the Mideast, and especially in Saudi Arabia, represents something of an existential threat to the Chinese. China's dependence on the Mideast is only going to increase, because China's oil imports will increase. The increasing anxiety on the part of the Beijing government over its dependence on imported oil is undoubtedly a big part of the reason why China has become extremely aggressive in claiming sovereignty over large regions in the South China Sea and the East China Sea. Last year, a confrontation was growing with China on one side, and with the US, Vietnam and other Asian countries on the other side. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e100724 ""24-Jul-10 News -- US confronts China on South China Sea claims.""#>) China is very aggressively claiming that the entire South China Sea region, including the Paracel and Spratly Islands and some 200 other islands, is China's sovereign terrority, and that they have the right to prohibit foreign ships from entering that region. The islands themselves may be of little value, but the region is suspected of being rich in oil and gas. Thus, they're claimed in whole or in part by China, Taiwan, Brunei, the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia. Now that confrontation is growing once again. On Tuesday of last week, the heads of state for Indonesia and the Philippines met in Jakarta to discuss cooperation on combating terrorism, but also to discuss forming a common front to counteract China's claims to the Spratly and Paracel islands, according to the <#stdurl http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3048&Itemid=367 "Asia Sentinel."#> Just as important as the oil and gas rights to the region is the issue of freedom of navigation across the South China Sea, one of the world's busiest waterways. If China were allowed to assert sovereignty over the region, then the interests of all Asian nations, as well as those of the United States, would be harmed. China repeated its previously stated hard line on the issue. A Chinese Foreign Ministry official is quoted as saying that they're willing to talk about it, but the bottom line is: "China holds indisputable sovereignty over the South China Sea islands and their adjacent waters." China is not stopping with claims to the islands in the South China Sea. China also is in a simmering dispute with Japan over the issue of sovereignty over the Senkaku Islands (called the Diaoyu Islands by the Chinese) in the East China Sea. In 2005, the dispute became so bitter that military action was being threatened on both sides. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e050716 ""China and Japan head for military confrontation over disputed islands.""#>) Then a new confrontation developed last year, when the Japanese arrested a Chinese fishing trawler captain, but was forced by the Chinese to return him to China. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e100926 ""26-Sep-10 News -- China turns the screws on a humiliated Japan.""#>) Last week, the conflict flared again, when Japanese jets confronted Chinese planes near the disputed islands. However, the Chinese planes didn't enter Japanese air space, and so the Japanese decided not to lodge a complaint, according to the <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12632042 "BBC."#> This conflict could end up involving the United States. The disputed islands are currently administered by the Japanese, and last year Secretary of State Hillary Clinton confirmed that America is committed to defending Japan, under a 1960 treaty, if China attacks the disputed islands. So the turmoil in the Mideast doesn't just threaten the world with having to shiver in winter. It also threatens military confrontations between China and other Asian nations, as well as the United States. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=688 "14-Mar-11 News -- Mideast turmoil raises concerns in China over oil"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110313 13-Mar-11 News -- Arab League unanimously requests a no-fly zone over Libya =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110313.head 13-Mar-11 News -- Arab League unanimously requests a no-fly zone over Libya =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110313.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110313.loc ww2010.weblog.log1103 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110313.date 13-Mar-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110313.txt1 Government payouts make up more than a third of US wages =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110313.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 e110313a "Arab League unanimously requests a no-fly zone over Libya" <#inc ww2010.pic g110312.jpg right "" "Convoy of rebel fighters in Libya (AFP)"#> An emergency meeting of the Arab League on Saturday passed a unanimous resolution demanding a no-fly zone over Libya, to protect the civilians in Libya, at the time of a "very bloody situation." The <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8378392/Libya-Arab-League-calls-for-United-Nations-no-fly-zone.html "Telegraph"#> quotes the official statement as saying, "The Arab League has officially requested the United Nations Security Council to impose a no-fly zone against any military action against the Libyan people." The White House hailed the request as an "important step," according to the <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/03/12/AR2011031203621.html "Washington Post."#> The White House statement says that now there's a clear international message that the violence in Libya must stop. The Arab League vote fulfills one of the major conditions imposed by the European Union before they would agree to a no-fly zone. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110312 ""12-Mar-11 News -- Europeans split on recommending a military no-fly zone over Libya.""#>) At the emergency EU summit on Friday, the British and French favored establishing a no-fly zone, but the Germans strongly opposed it. The final statement said, "The European council expresses its deep concern about attacks against civilians, including from the air. In order to protect the civilian population, member states will examine all necessary options, provided there is demonstrable need, a clear legal basis and support from the region." The Arab League vote provides the necessary "support from the region," and Gaddafi's tanks and air strikes provide the "demonstrable need," especially as Libya's armed forces appear to be recapturing cities lost in the east. All that's now required is a "clear legal basis." For that, the ambassador from Lebanon, the only Arab country currently represented on the UN Security Council, will request an emergency meeting, and submit a draft resolution approving a no-fly zone. Russia and China usually veto such resolutions, but in this case it's thought that they will simply abstain, allowing the resolution to pass. If and when that happens, the last political obstacle to the establishment of a no-fly zone over Libya will presumably be eliminated. I watched much of the Arab League press conference on al-Jazeera, and here are some interesting things that I heard that are not being widely reported in the media:
[youtube dQU8UG_70xc nolink]
Some excerpts:"The French, the Europeans, they should talk to the Libyan people. ... If they want to support the militia, do it. But I tell you: you are going to lose. We will win. And we are not afraid of the American fleet, NATO, France, Europe. This is our country. We are here, we will die here." "We will never ever give up. We will never ever surrender. This is our country. We fight here in Libya. The Libyan people, we will never ever welcome NATO, we will never ever welcome Americans here. Libya is not a piece of cake. We are not a Mickey Mouse." "It's time for liberation. It's time for action. We are moving now. Everybody is very excited." "In a few days ... you will see a surprise, you will see people in the east ... defeating the militia. ... They don't represent anybody. They are self-appointed people. ... It's a joke, it's a Mickey Mouse council. Nobody is with them." "But the West still lives in this fantasy. You will see a big surprise. Nobody welcomes NATO, the Americans to occupy Libya. ... Now it's too late for them. We are so united, we are so strong. And Libya will be free and peaceful soon." "The army is very patient. They gave them (rebels) two weeks ... trying to reach a peaceful end. Two weeks. Even with terrorists, they were still patient."Gaddafi was saying that the Libyan government was going to defeat the rebels, not something the West wants to hear. Unfortunately, America's National Intelligence Director, James Clapper, agrees with Saif. Testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Clapper said that Gaddafi would "prevail" over the rebels in Libya, according to <#stdurl http://www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/03/10/graham.clapper.libya/ "CNN."#> This was shocking to Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, and to Democrat Carl Levin. Apparently Graham and Levin, like so many other people in Washington, want to believe their own fantasies as long as possible. According to an analysis in the <#stdurl http://debka.com/ "Debka"#> subscriber-only newsletter, forwarded to me by a subscriber, Gaddafi is militarily well prepared to fight the rebels, and particularly has very sophisticated spy tools:
"It is time for him to go and give the country back to the people of Libya, allowing democratic forces to chart out a future course. The situation we are seeing in Libya is simply outrageous. We cannot accept this. I think it is our duty to say to the Arab peoples that we are on their side! From Brussels, I want to specifically say this to the young Arabs that are now fighting for freedom and democracy: 'We are on your side'."Wow! A statement like that takes your breath away, doesn't it. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton indicated that a no-fly zone was definitely on the table, according to <#stdurl http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/03/09/pentagon-gates-ruled-fly-zone-libya/ "Fox News,"#> but it needs the backing of the international community, especially the United Nations Security Council:
"I think it's very important that this not be a U.S.-led effort, because this comes from the people of Libya themselves. This doesn't come from the outside. This doesn't come from some Western power or some Gulf country saying this is what you should do, this is how you should live."Defense Secretary Robert Gates was thought to be opposed to military action in Libya, after some statements that he made last week criticizing "loose talk" about such a move. But Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell told reporters on Tuesday that Gates "has not staked out opposition to any particular course of action," according to the <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-gates-libya-20110310,0,5816685.story "LA Times."#> Last week, it was hoped that Gaddafi would step down as Libya's leader, thus putting an end to the crisis. It now appears that he's going to "fight till the last bullet," as his son promised a couple of weeks ago. Since Gaddafi will undoubtedly continue to use air power against the rebels and civilians, it appears likely that, sooner or later, the US and Nato will stumble into military action in Libya. Apparently Gaddafi is worried about that too. Nato ministers are meeting in Brussels on Thursday to discuss imposing a no-fly zone over Libya, with or without a United Nations resolution, according to the <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8371883/Libya-Nato-considers-no-fly-zone-without-UN-resolution.html "Telegraph."#> On Wednesday, Gaddafi sent envoys to Cairo and Brussels carrying messages to the Arab League and Nato, respectively, to try to head off any military action. Unfortunately, the messages will probably only serve to aggravate the people he's trying to soothe, and may increase the probability of military intervention. Still, it's unlikely that the Nato ministers will recommend anything more than applying some kind of band aid to the situation, for the time being. In both the global financial and geopolitical areas, the survivors of WW II were well aware how small problems can spiral out of control into major crises and wars. However, the experience since WW II is that small problems tend to disappear by themselves, without causing much damage. Hence, when a small problem occurs, international officials apply band aids, in order to supply a temporary solution, until the problem disappears by itself. The band aid itself may do harm or be harmless, but either way, the resolution of the problem is postponed, and the crisis is worse when it finally occurs. Listening to various commentators, my sense is that it's generally assumed that the various Arab "revolutions" going on around the Mideast will soon peter out, and things will return to "normal." From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, we're seeing just the opposite. Violence is growing in Libya. There have been clashes between Muslims and Coptic Christians in Cairo. Muslim extremists have burned dozens of churches in Ethiopia. Anti-government demonstrations and violence is growing in Yemen. Iran's government is becoming increasingly split and divided. Tensions are growing between Iran and the Arab countries. And Saudi Arabia has a "day of rage" scheduled for Friday. And the underlying causes haven't changed, especially the continuing rise in food prices that are driving large populations into poverty. What we're seeing is a trend toward growing instability in the Mideast during a generational Crisis era, at a time when the Generational Dynamics prediction is that there'll be a new Mideast war re-fighting the 1948 war between Israelis and Arabs. This trend may not continue, but if it does, then the region may be at full-scale war within a few months. <#inc ww2010.pic ConflictRisk-110212.gif right "" "World Conflict Risk"#> The next question is: When does this regional war threaten to become a world war? That would be when the U.S. or Nato gets involved (as we might do in Libya), or when Israel gets involved. It's interesting to note that as the various "revolutions" occur around the Arab world today, al-Qaeda is almost completely irrelevant, almost as if it didn't exist. This was particularly evident, for example, in a set of demands presented by the "coordinators of the Muslim Brotherhood youth revolution" last month in Egypt. The revolutionary demands, translated by <#stdurl http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5080.htm "MEMRI,"#> don't even mention the U.S. or Israel, let alone jihad. It's possible that al-Qaeda will succeed in its objective of creating a Sunni Muslim Arab country on the model of Iran's Great Islamic Revolution. But it's also possible, in the chaos of a regional ethnic and religious war, that, except for the 9/11 attack, jihadism will turn out to be just a footnote to the coming world war. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Demand for "synthetic" financial securities is growing Investors are increasingly demanding a new form of "synthetic" financial instrument that are backed by US corporate junk bonds in the same way that the CDOs that played a major part in the credit bubble were backed by residential mortgages. As we keep saying, the same people whose fraud caused the last crisis are still in the same jobs, committing new forms of fraud. <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/168566e8-49bc-11e0-acf0-00144feab49a,s01=1.html "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>. =// .h4 Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, increasingly downcast Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is increasingly downcast, because of Israel's poor international image. His concerns are confirmed by a BBC poll showing that Israel has one of the worst public images of any country. As a result, Netanyahu is preparing to lay out a plan for the phased creation of a Palestinian state. <#stdurl http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/downcast-benjamin-netahyahu-under-increased-pressure-over-israels-poor-image "The National (UAE)"#> =// .h4 Abbas hints at resignation As he has several times in the past, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas is hinting at resignation, if an independent Palestinian state is not established by September. <#stdurl http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=366798 "Ma'an News Agency"#> =// .h4 Saudi Arabia will not tolerate foreign interference Saudi Arabia's foreign minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal says that they will not allow any foreign intervention into the affairs of their country. "We’ll cut off the fingers of those who try to interfere in our internal matters and we reject dictates from any foreign party, be it small or big. We’ll also reject any move that would undermine the Kingdom’s sovereignty," he said. He was apparently referring to Iran. <#stdurl http://arabnews.com/saudiarabia/article309980.ece "Arab News"#> =// .h4 Our robot overlords will walk like us--and among us Our robot overlords will walk like us--and among us. <#stdurl http://www.fastcompany.com/1736328/now-our-robot-overlords-will-have-smooth-moves-so-we-trust-em "Fast Company"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=684 "10-Mar-11 News -- The U.S. and Nato stumble toward military intervention in Libya"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110309 9-Mar-11 News -- New violence makes Ivory Coast increasingly unstable =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110309.head 9-Mar-11 News -- New violence makes Ivory Coast increasingly unstable =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110309.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110309.loc ww2010.weblog.log1103 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110309.date 9-Mar-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110309.txt1 Muslims and Coptic Christians clash in Cairo =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110309.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "New violence makes Ivory Coast increasingly unstable" The security forces of Laurent Gbagbo, who has refused to step down as president of Ivory Coast after losing an election last November, fired on demonstrators again on Tuesday, killing three men and a woman, according to <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Four-Killed-in-Latest-Ivory-Coast-Violence-117596798.html "VOA."#> Ivory Coast is becoming increasingly unstable by the day, as more refugees are forced to flee their homes for safety. An estimated 450,000 people have been forced to flee from the growing conflict in Ivory Coast, according to <#stdurl http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFLDE7271O620110308 "Reuters."#> Some 300,000 are displaced from the city of Abidjan alone. President Barack Obama announced that he was making $12 million in aid available to help with the growing humanitarian crisis, according to <#stdurl http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2011/03/08/Obama-releases-aid-to-Ivory-Coast/UPI-83121299613129/ "UPI."#> 40,000 to 70,000 refugees are pouring into the neighboring country of Liberia, according to <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Butty-Liberia-Refugees-Goddard-7march11-117505018.html "VOA."#> Officials are afraid that the large volume of refugees will destabilize Liberia, triggering a new civil war in that country. However, Liberia's last generational crisis war was the civil war that ended in 2003, and so a new civil war in Liberia is impossible at this time, or if one starts, it will fizzle quickly. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Military trials at Guantanamo Bay prison will resume President Obama has issued an executive order reinstating military trials for alleged terrorists at Guantanamo Bay prison. Obama had repeatedly promised his supporters that he would close the prison within a year, but he's found it impossible to do so. Reinstating military trials is a major reversal of a campaign promise. As I've written many times, starting from the time of his campaign, Obama will not achieve any of his major promises, including universal health insurance. Events are out of the control of any politician. <#stdurl http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/08/world/americas/08guantanamo.html "NY Times"#> =// .h4 Muslims and Coptic Christians clash in Cairo Muslims and Coptic Christians clashed violently in Cairo on Tuesday, killing one person. 1,000 Copts had gathered to protest the burning of a church last week, and to protest discrimination against Copts. <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/03/201138211326148908.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =// .h4 Police fire on protestors in Sanaa, Yemen Police opened fire on protesters in Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, during anti-government protests. Three people were killed, and dozens more injured. <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/03/201138141157510167.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =// .h4 Black African refugees in Libya are being attacked and persecuted. Black African refugees in Libya are being attacked and persecuted. Armed Libyans are going door to door, forcing black Africans to leave immediately. Muammar Gaddafi had recruited black Africans to serve as mercenaries. <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/03/08/libya.refugees/ "CNN"#> =// .h4 Jewish and Muslim leaders meet to fight Islamophobia and anti-Semitism Jewish and Muslim leaders in Europe announced plans for a series of public events to fight growing Islamophobia, anti-Semitism, xenophobia and racism. <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/jewish-world/jewish-and-muslim-leaders-vow-to-fight-growing-racism-in-europe-1.347758 "Haaretz"#> =// .h4 Why is the turtle revered in Vietnam? Why is the turtle revered in Vietnam? <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/8368265/Why-is-the-turtle-revered-in-Vietnam.html "Telegraph"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=683 "9-Mar-11 News -- New violence makes Ivory Coast increasingly unstable"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110308 8-Mar-11 News -- Moody's downgrades Greece's debt, triggering chain reaction =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110308.head 8-Mar-11 News -- Moody's downgrades Greece's debt, triggering chain reaction =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110308.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110308.loc ww2010.weblog.log1103 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110308.date 8-Mar-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110308.txt1 With the 'peace process' a joke, Palestinians try to reorganize =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110308.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Moody's downgrades Greece's debt, triggering chain reaction" Moody's Investors Service suprised officials in Greece on Monday by slashing Greece's credit rating by three notches to "highly speculative," according to <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/07/us-eurozone-idUSTRE72345N20110307 "Reuters."#> Greece's debt is now rated lower than Egypt's debt. Politically, Moody's move will increase pressure on eurozone leaders to ease repayment terms on Greece's bailout last May. However, as we've reported several times recently, the Germans are increasingly unwilling to spend their hard-earned and hard-saved euros on the profligate Greeks, and they'll resis any easing. The move had a domino effect in Europe. Greece's bond yields (interest rates) rose to new highs, but so did yields on Portuguese and Irish bonds, according to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-07/german-two-year-note-yield-gains-relative-to-bunds-ahead-of-trichet-speech.html "Bloomberg."#> When investors demand high yields for a country's bonds, it means that investors are betting that the country will default. A statement exhibiting a masterpiece of logic was issued Monday by Greece's <#stdurl http://www.ana-mpa.gr/anaweb/user/showprel?service=3&maindoc=9678307 "Ministry of Finance,"#> criticizing Moody's decision:
"The rating downgrade announced by Moody’s today is completely unjustified as it does not reflect an objective and balanced assessment of the conditions Greece is presently facing. Furthermore, its timing and the multi-notch nature of the downgrade are incomprehensible and raise a number of questions. ... The arguments made can in no way be justified by the additional information available since Moody’s last downgrade in June 2010 and the progress achieved since. Instead, the announcement also anticipates the failure of specific policies - while a large number of reforms have already been implemented - including those relating to decisions at the European Union level that have not yet been taken and while critical discussions are ongoing before the March European Council meeting. Specifically, the first reason that Moody’s cites to explain the downgrade is the scale of Greece’s structural reform programme and implementation risks it entails, both of which were well-known since May 2010 when the agreement with the EC/ECBIMF was signed. In the nine months since then Greece has showed its determination in both fiscal consolidation and in implementing reforms on an extraordinary scale. The reduction in the budget deficit by 6 percentage points of GDP and the primary deficit by more than 7 percentage points of GDP in 2010 are the strongest evidence that relative to last year the risk of sovereign default has not increased but rather decreased as Greece is on an bold path towards fiscal consolidation."The logic of Greece's argument is that there's been no additional information since last May's bailout that justifies the lower rating. The problem with that argument is that I and a number of other people pointed out last May that there wasn't a snowflake's chance in hell that Greece was going to be able to meet the terms of the bailout, and that Greece was going to default anyway. So, Greece's Ministry of Finance is right. Moody's should not be lowering Greece's rating today. In truth, Moody's should have given Greece the low rating last May. What Moody's did last year is that they lied to investors, as they've done so many times before. They gave Greece a higher rating than they should have, and any investors who put their faith in the ratings by Moody's Investors Services have gotten screwed. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "With the 'peace process' a joke, Palestinians try to reorganize" Two weeks ago, West Bank Palestinian Authority prime minister Salam Fayyad proposed forming a unity government between West Bank's Fatah and Gaza's Hamas, accorind to <#stdurl http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/0/6163/World/0/PM-Fayyad-proposes-unity-government-with-Hamas-.aspx "AFP."#> Hamas gained control of Gaza in 2006 by unexpectedly winning legislative elections, and expelled Fatah entirely from Gaza in a war in 2007. Not surprisingly, Hamas immediately rejected the suggestion. A Hamas spokesman is quoted as saying, "These declarations lack seriousness and credibility, they make no sense in light of the continued arrests and torture (of Hamas members) in Fatah prisons in the West Bank. The only real way towards reconciliation is to stop the arrests, free the detainees and allow the movement's charities to start helping the Palestinian people again." However, a few days later, Fatah also rejected the suggestion, according to the <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=210090 "Jerusalem Post,"#> accusing Fayyad of trying to take charge of both Fatah and Hamas by leading the unity government. But that isn't the end of the story. The idea of reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas appealed to many youth in both Gaza and the West Bank, and over the weekend, a Facebook site calling for "all the Palestinian factions to unite" got 20,000 supporters, according to the <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=211087 "Jerusalem Post."#> Like many Arab countries, the Palestinian territories are planning for their own "Day of Rage" on March 15. But instead of calling for the government to step down, the demonstrators plan to demand that the government unite. The youth movment, called "End the Division," is demanding that both Fatah and Hamas release each other's prisoners. The group is also demanding an end to "all forms of security coordination with the Zionist enemy." My personal view is that the only thing that West Bank and Gaza Palestinians hate more than Israel is each other, and there is little chance of a meaningful unity government coming to pass. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 'Robo-signer' foreclosure crisis is growing As I wrote last year in <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e101022 ""22-Oct-10 News -- Foreclosure mess turns into a major crisis,""#> the banks' use of "robo-signers" to process tens of thousands of foreclosure notices without having each set of documents reviewed by a human being is turning into a crisis. Some 62 million mortgages are entered into the national MERS system, and many of the mortgages have an inadequate paper trail showing who owns the property and who owns the mortgage. Since then, legal challenges to the MERS system have been mounting, and many homeowners who should have lost their homes are being told by judges that they can rip up their mortgages and walk away debt-free. <#stdurl http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/06/business/06mers.html "NY Times"#> =// .h4 Can we 'inflate our way out of it?' The same politicians, investment bankers and financial reporters who are lying about stock valuations are also desperately clinging to hopes about inflation or hyperinflation. The message is that there's no reason to worry about debt, and no reason to stop spending on everything in sight, since we can just "Inflate our way out of it." Japan's experience indicates that won't happen. <#stdurl http://www.zerohedge.com/article/were-just-gonna-inflate-our-way-out-it-or-are-we "Zero Hedge"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=682 "8-Mar-11 News -- Moody's downgrades Greece's debt, triggering chain reaction"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110307 7-Mar-11 News -- Escalating violence in Ivory Coast leads to enlarged U.N. peacekeeping force =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110307.head 7-Mar-11 News -- Escalating violence in Ivory Coast leads to enlarged U.N. peacekeeping force =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110307.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110307.loc ww2010.weblog.log1103 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110307.date 7-Mar-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110307.txt1 Police fire on hundreds of women protesters in Abidjan =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110307.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Escalating violence in Ivory Coast leads to enlarged U.N. peacekeeping force" While the world has been transfixed by the drama in Libya, a violent massacre took place in Côte d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) last week. <#inc ww2010.pic g110306.jpg center "" "Laurent Gbagbo, right, and Alassane Ouattara in 2000, before they became bloody enemies. (Reuters)"#> A group of hundreds of women were gathering and preparing to start a demonstration, thinking that no one would shoot at a crowd of women. But shoot they did, killing six women and injuring others, according to <#stdurl http://www.portalangop.co.ao/motix/en_us/noticias/africa/2011/2/9/Women-Fatally-Shot-Rally,c669b5a7-f0b4-4844-8694-95cabed06e3b.html "Angola Press."#> If it weren't for the horrors of so much blood being spilled, what's happening in Ivory Coast might be the plot of a situation comedy. Like other countries in that region of Africa, Ivory Coast's population is split into a number of ethnic groups, and those are split by religious divisions, with the population in the north largely Muslim, and the population in the south largely Christian (Catholic). <#inc ww2010.mappic ivory.gif right "" "Ivory Coast (Côte d'Ivoire) (Source: CIA Fact Book)"#> Dating back to French colonial days and the beliefs of French cultural superiority, the France-allied southern population has been market dominant and government dominant. There was an election last year on November 28, and that's when things turned ugly, according to <#stdurl http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/Africa-Monitor/2011/0303/In-Ivory-Coast-Gbagbo-cranks-propaganda-machine-into-full-gear "CS Monitor."#> Laurent Gbagbo, a Catholic, had been president since 2000. The November election was close, but the winner was declared to be Alassane Ouattara, a Muslim. However, Gbagbo refused to step down, and instead empowered his police force to use whatever violence was necessary to keep him in power. It was Gbagbo's police supporters that massacred the women protesters last week. There is widespread fear that the Ivory Coast conflict could spiral into a full-fledged civil war, and that's certainly a possibility, as Ivory Coast is in a generational Crisis era. As a result, the United Nations plans to deploy an additional 2,000 soldiers to its peacekeeping mission in the country, according to <#stdurl http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/03/06/ivory.coast.un.soldiers/ "CNN."#> Some 800 peacekeepers are already there, and many of them are stationed around the hotel in Abidjan where Ouattara is barricaded, to keep him safe from Gbago's police, according to <#stdurl http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE72502K20110306 "Reuters."#> Ivory Coast officially became a French colony in 1893, as part of French West Africa. In that generational Crisis period, the crisis climaxed in the north in 1881, with the conquest of numerous tribes by Samori Touré, the founder of the Wassoulou Empire, an Islamic state. The crisis climaxed in the south by 1898, with the French conquest of Touré and the collapse of the last of his empire. France ruled with an assumption that French culture is superior to all others, an assumption that the population largely accepted. However, the illusion was destroyed by World War II, when France was quickly defeated by Germany. Like France itself, the colony was split between supporters of the Nazi-linked Vichy government, and the Free French under General Charles de Gaulle. Although the government élites supported the Vichy government, it appears that most Ivorians favored the Free French, especially after they experienced the harsh realities of living under Nazi rule. Ivory Coast followed a pattern that's typical of many countries during a generational cycle, following the end of a crisis war. The country gained independence in 1960. Félix Houphouët-Boigny, a Catholic, became President and virtual dictator, but maintained an even-handed, non-discriminatory policy toward Muslims from the north. This kind of balance is typical of the recovery period that follows a crisis war, as the survivors do everything possible to prevent any such war from occurring again. However, on Houphouët-Boigny's death in 1993, old divisions began to reappear, and those divisions have magnified into today's crisis. Henri Konan Bédié became president after a brief power struggle with Alassane Ouattara, the Muslim who is internationally considered the winner of the November 2010 election. Bedié developed the concept of "Ivority" (Ivoirité in French), and arranged for laws that required political candidates to have a sufficient amount of Ivority to be qualified for office. The major criterion for Ivority was that both the candidate's parents had to have been born in Ivory Coast. Since many northerners, including Ouattara, had parents who were born in Burkina-Faso, many Muslims were automatically excluded. Thus, Ouattara, who had been the country's Prime Minister under Houphouët-Boigny, was no longer qualified to hold office. Laurent Gbagbo supported the "Ivority" policy, and won the election in 2000. However, bitter divisions had developed, and by 2002, the civil war officially began. The rebels quickly took control of the northern half of the country. The civil war has followed a familiar generational pattern of periods of low-level violence alternating with periods of less violence after a "peace agreement" has been signed. Each period of violence is more violent than the previous one. Probably the only thing worse than an Ivory Coast civil war would be an Ivory Coast civil war with thousands of United Nations peacekeepers caught in the middle. A full scale generational crisis civil war is an elemental force of nature, and if it comes to that, then there's nothing that the peacekeepers or anyone else can do to stop it, until it's run its course. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=681 "7-Mar-11 News -- Escalating violence in Ivory Coast leads to enlarged U.N. peacekeeping force"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110306 6-Mar-11 News -- Saudi Arabia locks down in advance of Friday's 'Day of Rage' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110306.head 6-Mar-11 News -- Saudi Arabia locks down in advance of Friday's 'Day of Rage' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110306.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110306.loc ww2010.weblog.log1103 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110306.date 6-Mar-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110306.txt1 Senior commander in Iran's Revolutionary Guards warns of violence =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110306.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Saudi Arabia locks down in advance of Friday's 'Day of Rage'" It appears that the string of uprisings that Arab countries have been experiencing will finally reach Saudi Arabia on Friday. <#inc ww2010.mappic saudi.gif right "" "Saudi Arabia (Source: CIA Fact Book)"#> Several thousand people have joined Facebook groups calling for a "day of rage" in the kingdom, with the first one planned for Friday, according to the <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-saudi-protest-20110306,0,3128624.story "LA Times."#> Hoping to head off the protests, the government announced on Saturday that it would enforce existing laws that prohibit protests, according to the <#stdurl http://arabnews.com/saudiarabia/article302393.ece?comments=all "Arab News."#> According to the statement:
"Laws and regulations in the Kingdom totally prohibit all kinds of demonstrations, marches and sit-in protests as well as calling for them as they go against the principles of Shariah and Saudi customs and traditions. ... [Such] demonstrations not only breach the Kingdom’s law and order but also encroach on the rights of others. ... They will also lead to spreading chaos and confusion in the country, causing bloodshed, breaching honor, pillaging wealth and destroying public and private properties."The Saudis have also drafted as many as 10,000 security personnel to try to control Friday's protests, according to Robert Fisk in the <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/saudis-mobilise-thousands-of-troops-to-quell-growing-revolt-2232928.html "Independent."#> The protests are expected to be heaviest in the northeast of the country, in the region closest to Iran. That's where a large Shia Muslim population is living, within this mostly Sunni Muslim kingdom. It's thought that the riots and demonstrations pitting Shias against Sunnis in neighboring Bahrain have been the trigger for the protests in Saudi Arabia. The Iranians are positively gloating over this development. An article in the <#stdurl http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=236871 "Tehran Times"#> begins:
"Saudi Arabia's musk revolution “The king is dead, long live the king,” is a call which, in its Arabic form, is sure to be heard before too long in Saudi Arabia. In the latest chapter of the saga of the House of Saud, the ailing and aged King Abdullah returned to the kingdom on Feb. 23 after a three-month absence, which included two back operations in New York City and a month's recuperation at his palace in Morocco. It wasn't quite a triumphant return. Upon his arrival in Morocco, the king was brought down to earth in a wheelchair, carried from his aircraft in a scissor-lift disabled-passenger vehicle modeled on the design of a catering truck. A similar contraption was employed on his return home to Riyadh. The gerontocratic monarch is, obviously, on his last legs."However, the article does add that "it is unlikely that much will come" of the protests planned for Friday. Widespread unrest in Saudi Arabia could have a major effect on the world economy, since Saudi Arabia supplies much of the world's oil. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Senior commander in Iran's Revolutionary Guards warns of violence The Green Movement protests in Iran in 2009 were triggered by an election that many people believed had been "fixed" in advance. There's a new parliamentary election coming up this year, and a senior commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards is warning that the election may bring "bloodshed." This would be consistent with what happened in America's Awakening era protests. The Summer of Love took place in 1967, and then there were very violent protests at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in 1968. <#stdurl http://www.eurasiareview.com/world-news/middle-east/iran-revolutionary-guards-warn-possible-bloodshed-in-future-elections-05032011/ "Radio Zamaneh"#> =// .h4 Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez proposes support for Gaddafi Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is leading a proposed commission of several Latin American nations to provide support for Muammar Gaddafi of Libya. <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/03/05/libya.venezuela.chavez/ "CNN"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=680 "6-Mar-11 News -- Saudi Arabia locks down in advance of Friday's 'Day of Rage'"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110305 5-Mar-11 News -- Russia unleashes 'Black Hawk' vigilantes against Caucasus terrorists =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110305.head 5-Mar-11 News -- Russia unleashes 'Black Hawk' vigilantes against Caucasus terrorists =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110305.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110305.loc ww2010.weblog.log1103 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110305.date 5-Mar-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110305.txt1 The 'Black Hawks' say they'll target the families of suspected terrorists =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110305.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia unleashes 'Black Hawk' vigilantes against Caucasus terrorists" The conflict in the North Caucasus (Russia's mostly Muslim southern provinces) has taken a dangerous turn, as a group of grass-root vigilantes threaten, with apparent Kremlin approval, to retaliate against the families of suspected terrorists. <#inc ww2010.pic g110304.jpg center "" "Leader of 'Black Hawks'"#> The armed, masked, and black-clad vigilante group, calling themselves the "Black Hawks," appeared in the province of Kabardino-Balkaria (KBR). They call themselves an "anti-Wahhabi" group. Wahhabism is the hard-line sect of Islam adopted by jihadists who distort Islam to justify terrorism. They've received widespread attention in the last couple of days, ever since the leader was interviewed anonymously on television, and the <#stdurl http://www.youtube.com/user/rentvchannel#p/u/3/UN1QQpY0Y-0 "video (Russian)"#> was posted on the internet. He says the following, according to <#stdurl http://www.interfax-religion.com/?act=news&div=8252 "Interfax"#>:
"There is no faith there. The Quran says that children's and women's blood cannot be shed. The Quran has only one definition of a holy war - jihad. This implies the liberation of one's land. Who is oppressing them here? Who prevents them from living peacefully and safely?" the leader of Black Hawks said on the television channel REN-TV during a news program on Tuesday evening. Let them [the militants] collect tributes from businessmen and vodka tycoons, but they can't kill our children. If they continue this way, we will be killing their children, so they feel on their own back how painful this is. We are sick and tired of the lawlessness committed by this bearded scum who doesn't let the republic live in peace."Violence by the Black Hawks has already received some tacit approval from at least one senior Kremlin official. Alexander Torshin, whom we recently quoted as accusing Georgia of plotting the Moscow airport bombing (see <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110303 ""3-Mar-11 News -- Instability in Russia puts 2014 Olympics at Sochi in doubt""#>), is quoted by Interfax as at least partially supporting the Black Hawks, but also saying that their appearance will escalate the violence in the region, possibly to civil war:
"The people who have joined the Black Hawks are a real force, they are a young people's organization consisting mainly of young people who want to live according to civilized laws, not according to radical Islamic rules. The bearded terrorists are carrying a tough Islamic order, which has nothing in common with European values, and therefore the appearance of such an underground structure in Kabardino-Balkaria is very natural. ... At the same time, they already have conflicts with the law enforcement system because they practice lynch law, which will be toughly curbed by the law enforcement agencies. We have a question: why are they so quick to punish them, but are doing nothing to stop the bearded men? ... It's a civil war with underground bandits. I will give my paradoxical opinion. I believe the local law enforcement agencies should not fight these good people from the Black Hawks, who are fighting Wahhabis, but use them because they could become a good information channel."The Black Hawks have struck several times already. The <#stdurl http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/new-threat-as-caucasus-vigilantes-vow-to-fight-back/431977.html "Moscow Times"#> lists several attacks against the relatives of suspected terrorists in Kabardino-Balkaria. These attacks set off fires and grenades at the homes of these families and relatives, but so far nobody has been hurt. There is some suspicion that the Black Hawks are not civilians at all, but are Russian security forces in disguise, performing violent acts that they couldn't do in their official capacity. However, this has not been proven. Doku Umarov, veteran of the Chechnya wars and self-styled head of the "Islamic Caucasus Emirate," is currently the leader of the jihadist movement in the North Caucasus, and the man who has claimed responsibility for the Moscow airport bombing. He is not going to end his terrorist activities because the families of some of his subordinates are in danger. Historically, the Caucasus is one of the most dangerous regions on earth. It's been the site of centuries of major generational crisis wars between Orthodox Christians and Muslims, but has also been the site of wars between ethnic groups, even of the same religion. The appearance of vigilante groups approved by Kremlin officials cannot be regarded as a good thing in a region that might explode at any time. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=679 "5-Mar-11 News -- Russia unleashes 'Black Hawk' vigilantes against Caucasus terrorists"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110304 4-Mar-11 News -- Food prices surge again in February =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110304.head 4-Mar-11 News -- Food prices surge again in February =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110304.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110304.loc ww2010.weblog.log1103 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110304.date 4-Mar-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110304.txt1 Arab League says that it may impose its own 'no fly zone' in Libya =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110304.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Food prices surge again in February" World food prices once again rose to fresh historic highs, for the eighth consecutive month. Prices rose 2.2% in one month from January to February, according to the UN <#stdurl http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/51913/icode/ "Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110303.gif center "" "FAO Food Price Index - 1991 - February 2011"#> Of particular importance were the prices of cereals, which rose 3.7% in one month. The cereal price index includes prices of the main food staples in many countries, such as wheat, rice and maize. Food prices are expected to continue to climb even if harvests expand, according to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-03/food-prices-to-extend-gains-as-stockpiles-rebuilt-led-by-corn-ubs-says.html "Bloomberg."#> That's because after three years of poor harvests, stockpiles are low, and it will take at least two or three years of good harvests to rebuild stockpiles. The original Tunisia uprising began as food riots in January, and high food prices have fueled the Arab uprisings in country after country. This is having a feedback effect, since the uprisings themselves are affecting the production of food in those countries, pushing prices still higher. The uprising in Libya is causing the price of oil to surge, and higher oil prices leading to spiralling shipping costs that will drive food inflation even higher, according to <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/analysis-rising-freight-rates-add-to-agflation-worries "Reuters."#> A new <#stdurl http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2011/03/helbling.htm "IMF report"#> says that high food prices are here to stay because of structural issues:
"Gadhafi's air force is a serious threat to us. We will welcome a no-fly zone on Gadhafi's warplanes over the whole of Libya. The only thing we object to is foreign troops on Libyan soil."British Prime Minister David Cameron has been very vocally calling for the establishment of a no-fly zone, to prevent the Libyan air force from firing on protesters and rebels from aircraft. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/28/us-libya-britain-cameron-idUSTRE71R4YU20110228 "Reuters"#> quotes him as saying on Monday:
"We do not in any way rule out the use of military assets. We must not tolerate this regime using military force against its own people. In that context I have asked the Ministry of Defense and the Chief of the Defense Staff to work with our allies on plans for a military no-fly zone."Susan Rice, America's ambassador to the UN, is in agreement, according to <#stdurl http://blogs.abcnews.com/george/2011/03/amb-susan-rice-us-considering-no-fly-zone-gadhafi-behavior-crazy.html "ABC News:"#>
"We are in discussions with our allies and NATO and elsewhere about planning for all sorts of military contingencies including a no-fly zone and should we decide that it is necessary to take the step we will proceed with the proper international steps that go with that including consultations at the United Nations."However, Defense Secretary Gates is definitely not in favor of this kind of miltary action. According to the <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/sc-dc-0302-gates-libya-20110301,0,1722274.story "LA Times,"#> he said, "All of the options beyond the humanitarian assistance and evacuation are complex," indicating that US involvement in a third war might affect operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. On Tuesday, Cameron backed down, after senior military sources expressed concern about the dangers of being sucked into a long and potentially dangerous operation, according to the <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/mar/01/cameron-backtracks-libya-zone-us "Guardian."#> Officials from France, Turkey and Russia also rejected the no-fly-zone idea, and China is expected to do so as well. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the decision to intervene militarily in Libya is no more under the control of the politicians than the path of a hurricane would be. If the refugee problem continues to grow, and a civil war appears close, then the West will be forced to intervene whether it wants to or not. On the hand, if the violence begins to fizzle, then intervention will be avoided. To that end, I heard one commentator say the following on Al-Jazeera on Tuesday (paraphrasing): "Gaddafi will end his life soon. He might commit suicide, but that's very unlikely, because that's a sin in Islam. Otherwise, he might go out into the battle and get into a gunfight and get himself killed. This is almost certain to happen." That would be a very dramatic end to Gaddafi, if it happens, but it would not end the crisis in Libya. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Cairo Stock Exchange reopening postponed till next week <#inc ww2010.pic g110127.gif right "" "Cairo Stock Exchange - to January 27, 2011"#> The Cairo Stock Exchange has been shut down since January 27, when the stock index fell over 10% in one day. Officials had promised to reopen the stock market on Tuesday, but at the last minute the reopening was postponed to next week. This can't go on forever. Sooner or later they'll have to face the music. <#stdurl http://www.cnbc.com/id/41849360 "CNBC"#> =// .h4 Turkey evacuates 17,500 from Libya Turkish officials are very pleased with the successful evacuation of over 17,500 Turkish citizens from Libya. However, the large size of the evacuation carries an ominous message: Turkey risks being harder hit by the economic side-effects of political instability in the region than other countries. <#stdurl http://www.eurasianet.org/node/62971 "Eurasia Net"#> =// .h4 Erdogan said Turks in Germany should learn Turkish first Germany has 3 million people of Turkish descent. Three years ago, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan angered Germany citizesn by saying during a speech in Cologne that assimilation of Turks into Germany society is a "crime against humanity," meaning that Turkish citizens of Germany were Turkish first and German second. Now he's renewed the controversy with a new speech in Dusseldorf, where he said, "Yes, integrate yourselves into German society but don't assimilate yourselves. No one has the right to deprive us of our culture an our identity." The line generating the most controversy was this: "Our children must learn German, but they must first learn good Turkish." <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,748379,00.html#ref=nlint "Spiegel"#> =// .h4 US/S. Korea joint military drills have new focus South Korea and the U.S. will conduct joint military exercises again, but this time there's a sudden change in focus. In the past, the drills focused on a full-scale war between South and North Korea, essentially a restarting of the Korean War of the 1950s. But the new drill will focus on a contingency plan that prepares for a collapse in the North Korean government, possibly following the death of Kim Jong-il. <#stdurl http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/02/15/2011021501027.html "Chosun"#> =// .h4 Iran courts left-leaning powers in Latin America While the U.S. continues to isolate Iran over its nuclear program, Iran is courting left-leaning powers in Latin America. <#stdurl http://www.fpif.org/articles/irans_adventures_in_latin_america "Foreign Policy in Focus"#> =// .h4 Where have the good men gone? "Where have the good men gone?" is another article about women whining because young men don't fit into whatever mold they think they want this week. I get annoyed by this stuff because these young men are the next "Greatest Generation," like the GI generation of WW II, a generation waiting for their meeting with destiny. When the time comes and the nation is facing its greatest danger, these Heroes will go off to war fearlessly and do their duty. Without any thought for themselves, they'll go proudly and valiantly into battle, and they won't even be sad about it. So whether you're a girlfriend or a parent, enjoy your time with these young men, because it won't last forever. <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576146321725889448.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=676 "2-Mar-11 News -- Massive refugee crisis in Libya increases international calls for intervention"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110301 1-Mar-11 News -- Mideast riots and violence spreads to Oman =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110301.head 1-Mar-11 News -- Mideast riots and violence spreads to Oman =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110301.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110301.loc ww2010.weblog.log1103 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110301.date 1-Mar-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110301.txt1 Government changes by Sultan Qaboos fails to satisfy demonstrators =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110301.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Mideast riots and violence spreads to Oman" <#inc ww2010.mappic oman.gif right "" "Oman (Source: CIA Fact Book)"#> About 1,000 protesters set a supermarket on fire in Sohar, on the northwest coast of Oman, on Monday, in the third day of clashes with police. According to <#stdurl http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/lulu-supermarket-set-ablaze-by-oman-protesters "The National (UAE),"#> the protesters were mostly young people, claiming that most jobs are given to migrant workers from other countries, leaving Omanis without jobs. In an effort to head off further demonstrations, Sultan Qaboos bin Said al-Said has ordered a reorganization of the government, the creation of 50,000 new government jobs, and a monthly stipend of about 150 rials ($390) for unemployed job seekers, according to the <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/oman/8352860/The-Middle-East-in-crisis-Looters-take-control-of-Omans-streets.html "Telegraph."#> Since 1744, Oman has been ruled by the powerful Al Said dynasty. Historically, they ruled the coastal areas around Muscat, the capital city, while the interior portions of the country were run by individual tribes governed by imams (Muslim religious leaders). The tribes were unified under a central government by a generational crisis civil war in 1870-71. Oman's most recent crisis war was the Dhofar Rebellion of 1962-75. The war involved military forces from Britain, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Sultan Qaboos, who overthrew his father in a coup d'état in 1970, has been in power ever since. In the end, Oman became a close ally of Britain and the United States. Oman is currently near the end of its generational Awakening era. The current unrest has a good chance of leading to an Awakening climax, that will lead to some kind of change in Oman's government. It might be a simple change of leadership from Sultan Qaboos to someone else, or it might be a major change in the form of government. A lot depends on whether Sultan Qaboos decides to use a massacre scenario, such as is being used in Libya, or was used briefly in neighboring Bahrain. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=675 "1-Mar-11 News -- Mideast riots and violence spreads to Oman"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110228 28-Feb-11 News -- Peripheral stock markets continue to plunge, pressuring the center =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110228.head 28-Feb-11 News -- Peripheral stock markets continue to plunge, pressuring the center =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110228.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110228.loc ww2010.weblog.log1102 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110228.date 28-Feb-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110228.txt1 Turkish businessmen experience xenophobia in Morocco =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110228.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Peripheral stock markets continue to plunge, pressuring the center" In the wake of the turmoil in the Mideast, stock prices in peripheral stock markets have continued to plunge, often by several percentage points in a day. <#inc ww2010.pic g110227.gif center "" "Recent stock market plunges"#> The Cairo stock exchange, which has been shut down for over a month, is going to reopen on Tuesday, according to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-27/egypt-s-stock-market-to-resume-trading-on-march-1-after-one-month-shutdown.html "Bloomberg."#> There's one paragraph in this news story that I found amusing:
"The regulator announced a list of rules on Feb. 19 aimed at managing a possible selloff when trading resumes, including putting in place a 10 percent circuit breaker on the daily price movement of shares, reducing trading hours by one to three, and banning margin trading."The reason that this is amusing is because officials at the Dhaka (Bangladesh) stock exchange did all the same steps when that market started crashing. The circuit breaker did no good, because the index crashed through the circuit breaker within five minutes of opening. Dhaka had banned margin trading (buying stocks on credit), but then decided to permit and even expand margin trading, in the hopes that investors would borrow a lot of money and pour it into stock purchases. It didn't work though, and the Dhaka stock exchange kept crashing, 6% on Sunday alone. Saudi Arabia is a relatively recent member of the stock crash club, triggered by the protests in Libya, Yemen and Bahrain. The market fell 5.2% on Sunday, according to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-27/dubai-shares-rise-on-investor-bets-declines-are-overdone-deyaar-advances.html "Bloomberg."#> The article points out that protests are also growing in next-door neighbor Oman, where stock market index has fallen to its lowest level in months. "Higgenbotham," a contributor to the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2&start=3080#p7706 "Generational Dynamics forum,"#> described the situation as follows:
"It's because of all the various things we are seeing that indicate the periphery is once again beginning to collapse. This would be the same type of thing I wrote about in this forum on April 26, 2010 but instead of involving just Greece it involves many more areas on the periphery and it is spreading very quickly and unpredictably (small countries, states, local governments, and individuals). In order to keep the center of the system afloat, resources are being sucked from the periphery of the world into the center. As the periphery collapses, the center can't hold either because it runs out of resources to suck in. However, with the heavy government involvement in the markets, it's a lot harder to read the situation. It's like trying to monitor a backyard pond that had fish in it and now there is a whale in it."This is a very profound description of what's going on. As I've been describing for years, each day there's less money in the world than there was the day before. In 2007, the Bank of International Settlements was reporting that there were over one quadrillion dollars nominal value (that's quadrillion with a "Q") of synthetic credit derivatives in portfolios around the world. That figure included about $60 trillion in credit default swaps, and about $500 trillion in interest rate swaps. These synthetic securities are not often thought of as "money," but they were at the heart of the credit bubble, since they were used as collateral or in trade for purchases of stock and other assets. During the credit bubble, these were the reason that there was more money in the world each day than there was the day before. That's when the credit crunch began, and the "deleveraging" process began in financial institutions around the world. Today, the above figures have been approximately cut in half, meaning that there's about $500 trillion less in the world today. And that's only part of it. The latest S&P/Case-Shiller release indicates that home prices fell 1% from November to December of last year, and Shiller is predicting another 15-20% fall in home prices, according to the <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703529004576160160322836914.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>. So, the collapse of the housing bubble has already removed some $10 trillion in value in the U.S. alone, and there may be another $5-10 trillion or so lost. When you hear someone on CNBC whine because so many investment firms are "keeping money on the sidelines," it's because the people in those firms are viscerally aware that they'd better hold on to what they have, while they still have it. So, when all that money poured out of Washington in the form of quantitative easing, that money wasn't spent on factories, as politicians fantasized; it was redirected into the Wall Street Ponzi scheme, and into bubbles in various peripheral countries. And now, as Higgenbotham points out, that money is being sucked back out of the periphery into the center -- to London, Frankfurt and Wall Street. In the diagram above, I included a graph of Portugal's 10-year bond yield (interest rate), which has now reached 7.54% and continues to grow steadily. It continues to follow the same path as Greece and Ireland, and the same is happening in other euroland countries as well, indicating that the Europeans are unable to suck money back in fast enough to keep yields down. This is at a time when <#stdurl http://www.eurointelligence.com/ "Euro Intelligence"#> reports that Germany's "academic establishment and business community are in open revolt against Angela Merkel's policy to bolster the European rescue [bailout] mechanism." The Germans, you'll recall, were absolutely furious at having to give their hard-saved euros to the profligate Greeks, and they're not going to be supportive of bailouts for Portugal or any other Club Med countries. Meanwhile, back here in America, state budgets are crashing, as anyone who turns on a TV these days can see. Thanks to the Republican victory last November, Washington is as much in open revolt against bailouts as the Germans are. It's just as well. Bailouts wouldn't do any good for long. Just as setting circuit breakers in Dhaka was a total failure, just as quantitative easing was a total failure, bailouts of states would also be a total failure. There's less and less money in the world every day, so there's less and less money to go around for bailouts. There's a massive deflationary spiral in progess that nothing can stop. Here are some excerpts from an interview of Michael Lewis, author of "The Big Short", by <#stdurl http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1102/27/fzgps.01.html "CNN's"#> Fareed Zakaria on Sunday:
"LEWIS: So there is - very clear that there's reckoning in the future, exactly what form it takes is less clear. I mean, it is incredible where we sit right now. If you told me in - in early 2009 that all of these big Wall Street firms would be back even bigger and paying big bonuses and essentially socialized, and then their loss is socialized but the gains privatized and that the American people would put up with it? That's the incredible thing is that there isn't a social revolution. ... That's right. And the question I have is what happens if the United States Treasury ceases to be a credible backstop? What happens when marketers say we don't really want to lend to the United States anymore? Then you have - then you get the depression. They you get - then you get a much, much bigger problem. ...Lewis makes two important points. One is that we're headed for a depression -- something that few in Washington or New York want to admit. Second, he points out that the bankers are back committing the same kind of fraud that they did in the credit bubble years. This is something that can't be repeated often enough: The same people who caused the last crisis are still in the same jobs, committing the same kind of fraud again, and are causing a new crisis. The credit crisis was caused by generational fraud committed in practically every financial and real estate firm in the world. The nihilistic Generation-Xers, beset by hatred and contempt for Boomers and Silents, created synthetic securities (mortgage-backed and others) that they knew were fraudulent, and sold them to investors around the world, making huge amounts of money. Their Boomer bosses, who were totally incompetent at anything except arguing with their parents and each other, just went along with the fraud because they were making huge amounts of money as well. It was just a few years ago when I was ridiculed for the above characterizations, but today few people who would doubt them. In fact, a new article in <#stdurl http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/why-isnt-wall-street-in-jail-20110216 "Rolling Stone"#> by Mike Taibbi called "Why Isn't Wall Street in Jail?" is a compendium of crimes by people who are still in their jobs, committing new crimes. I see this all the time when I watch CNBC or Bloomberg TV. As I <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110214 "recently reported,"#> financial executives come on and openly lie about stock valuations. It astounds me these crooks can openly commit new crimes right in front of our eyes, though it's no more astonishing than the crimes we see committed every day in Washington. Here's a coincidence. As I'm typing this, the movie "Inside Job," about the financial crisis, has just won the Oscar for best documentary, and the producer Charles Ferguson says, "Forgive me, I must start by pointing out that three years after a horrific financial crisis caused by massive fraud, not a single financial executive has gone to jail, and that's wrong." I write about the financial crisis all the time, as well as geopolitical crises around the world, and I just can't believe how fucked up the world is. I have to keep asking myself whether I'm crazy or the world's crazy, and it depresses me that it's the world that's crazy. As I write my web log every day, I feel like I'm watching an awful movie and they've locked the theatre doors and won't let me out. I'll close by repeating my favorite quotation from Friedrich Nietzsche: "Insanity in individuals is something rare - but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule." =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional notes" =// .h4 Turkish businessmen experience xenophobia in Morocco Turkish businessmen are experiencing increasing anti-Turkish xenophobia in Morocco, a country where previously they've been welcomed. The result is that many Turks are fleeing the country, and they fear that some spark could launch widespread violence. <#stdurl http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=turkish-businessmen-fear-a-spark-to-launch-uprising-in-morocco-2011-02-25 "Hurriyet (Istanbul)"#> =// .h4 Food prices surge in India while food rots in storage There's a growing political crisis in India over claims that food prices are surging, while food is rotting in storage. <#stdurl http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/sugar-worth-rs-8400-crore-rots-in-maharashtra/425900/ "Business Standard"#> =// .h4 Foreign reporters at rally assaulted by China government thugs The internet call by China's netizens to stage their own "Jasmine Protests" is apparently panicking Chinese Communist Party officials, who acted like thugs during Sunday's attempted rallies. Foreign reporters were singled out and assaulted. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12593328 "BBC"#> =// .h4 Kids targeted by iPhone and iPad scams A number of iPhone and iPad scams are targeting kids. The scam is illustrated by the Smurf's Village app. The app is free, but it's made the vendor huge amounts of money. How? Because kids who play the app have to spend $10-100 of real money each time they want to buy some Smurf Berries to play in the game. This kind of crap infuriates me, but it fits well today because the main article is about the financial crisis. <#stdurl http://www.padgadget.com/2011/02/23/ftc-to-review-marketing-delivery-of-mobile-applications/ "Pad Gadget"#> =// .h4 Ten things Americans waste the most money on Ten things Americans waste the most money on. <#stdurl http://247wallst.com/2011/02/24/ten-things-americans-waste-the-most-money-on/ "24/7 Wall Street"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=674 "28-Feb-11 News -- Peripheral stock markets continue to plunge, pressuring the center"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110227 27-Feb-11 News -- China cracks down ahead of planned 'Jasmine' protests on Sunday =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110227.head 27-Feb-11 News -- China cracks down ahead of planned 'Jasmine' protests on Sunday =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110227.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110227.loc ww2010.weblog.log1102 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110227.date 27-Feb-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110227.txt1 US Ambassador to China Jon Meade Huntsman Jr. becomes involved in Beijing rallies =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110227.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "China cracks down ahead of planned 'Jasmine' protests on Sunday" China's authorities have blocked access to the internet search term "John Huntsman," after word had spread that Huntsman, the US Ambassador to China, was present at a pro-democracy rally in Beijing last Sunday according to <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/25/us-china-huntsman-idUSTRE71O11620110225?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews "Reuters."#> Last Sunday's rally was the first of what is supposed to be a series of weekly multi-city rallies, to be held each Sunday, if the wishes of anonymous Chinese activists are to be followed. The call for a "Jasmine Revolution," named after the series of Mideast revolutions that began last month with Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution. In fact, last Sunday's rallies were poorly attended, but that fact hasn't stopped Chinese authorities from cracking down hard, according to the <#stdurl latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fgw-china-crackdown-20110227,0,4764714.story "LA Times,"#> by arresting human rights activists, by imposing greater internet censorship, and by harassing foreign journalists. The involvement of US Ambassador Jon Meade Huntsman Jr. is generating some internet discussion, since it is not know whether Huntsman "just happened" to be in the area at the time of the rally, or whether he attended on purpose. President Obama appointed Huntsman as ambassador to China, based on his experience as a politician and diplomat, including a great deal of Asian experience. However, Huntsman is also a moderate Republican, who may be planning to run for President in 2012. Huntsman may not be ambassador much longer. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 UN Security Council votes unanimously on sanctions for Libya The UN Security Council voted unanimously on Saturday night to impose sanctions on Libya, and called for an international war crimes investigations. Even Russia and China voted for the sanctions, and it's though that they did that because Libya's own UN Ambassador, a personal friend of Muammar Gaddafi, expressed outrage at the violence against Libya's people, and begged the Security Council to impose the sanctions. <#stdurl http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/world/africa/27nations.html "NY Times"#> =// .h4 Korea threatens to shell South Korean border towns North Korea is threatening to fire artillery at South Korean border towns and destroy them, in retaliation for sending hundreds of thousands of balloons with propagand leaflets from the South into the North. The South Koreans began the propaganda campaign after the North Korean shelling of Yeonpyeong Island in December, killing several South Koreans, with the result that positions have substantially hardened on both sides. <#stdurl http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/top/all/7447916.html "Associated Press"#> =// .h4 China permits exhibition of controversial 3,500 year old mummies An international crisis was averted when China reversed its decision to forbid the display of 3,500 year old mummies Xinjiang province at a University of Pennsylvania museum. The exhibition had been planned for months, but suddenly China withdrew permission to display the mummies. The reason was apparently that the mummies displayed Caucasoid (non-Chinese) characteristics, and thus they would provide support for the claim of Muslim Uighurs nationalists that their Turkic ancestors had been the first to settle the region, rather than the Han Chinese. High level discussions took place between US and Chinese officials, and nine days later the Chinese relented and gave permission for the mummies to be displayed. <#stdurl http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/when-millennia-old-mummies-threaten-national-identity "Yale Global"#> =// .h4 Wave of violence sweeping Kabardino-Balkaria puts 2014 olympics at risk A growing wave of violence sweeping through Russia's Kabardino-Balkaria (KBR) province in the North Caucasus has raised further doubts about the stability of the whole region, and brings into question whether the 2014 Olympics can be held in Sochi. <#stdurl http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2011/02/window-on-eurasia-kbr-violence-worse.html "Paul Goble"#> =// .h4 The lost art of pickpocketing Pickpocketing in America was once a proud criminal tradition, but it's dying out in favor of more violent crimes. <#stdurl http://www.slate.com/id/2286010/ "Slate"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=673 "27-Feb-11 News -- China cracks down ahead of planned 'Jasmine' protests on Sunday"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110226 26-Feb-11 News -- Gaddafi's bloody fanaticism makes US/Nato military action increasingly likely =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110226.head 26-Feb-11 News -- Gaddafi's bloody fanaticism makes US/Nato military action increasingly likely =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110226.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110226.loc ww2010.weblog.log1102 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110226.date 26-Feb-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110226.txt1 Growing Palestinian population is destabilizing Jordan =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110226.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Gaddafi's bloody fanaticism makes US/Nato military action increasingly likely" <#inc ww2010.pic g110225.jpg right "" "Muammar Gaddafi on Friday"#> Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi continued his defiant rhetoric on Friday, saying that he would "crush any enemy," according to <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/26/us-libya-protests-idUSTRE71G0A620110226 "Reuters."#> He spoke to thousands of supporters in Tripoli's Green Square, and threatened to open his military arsenals and make weapons available to his supporters and tribesmen. He shouted and waved his fists. "Get ready to fight for Libya, get ready to fight for dignity, get ready to fight for petroleum! We can crush any enemy. We can crush it with the people's will." Many observers now fear that, unlike the leaders in Tunisia and Egypt, Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi will refuse to step down, and will fight to the death -- his own death, and the deaths of many Libyans. As this opinion becomes more commonly held, and as the grisly violence on the streets creates a potential humanitarian crisis, there is increasing international pressure for military action to prevent further genocide. Even if Gaddafi does step down, there is a danger that Libya will collapse into tribal civil war, and this would probably be an even worse scenario. <#inc ww2010.pic g110220b.gif right "" "Libya, showing the three historic divisions: Tripolitania, Fezzan and Cyrenaica"#> If the United States intervened militarily, it would almost certainly be done through Nato, according to <#stdurl http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/02/24/libya.military.intervention/index.html "CNN."#> Initially, the only military action being considered is enforcement of a no-fly zone, to try to keep the Libyan air force from attacking protesters. The U.N. Security Council is also considering possible sanctions, including an arms embargo, travel bans and freezing top officials' assets, and threatened the Libyan leadership with indictments for crimes against humanity. Indeed, <#stdurl http://www.debka.com/article/20708/ "Debka"#> is reporting that hundreds of US, British and French military advisers have already arrived in Cyrenaica to help organize the eastern tribes into a functioning government. If true, this force would also try to prevent a spillover of a civil war into Egypt. Friday's riots and demonstrations weren't limited to just Libya. Hundreds of thousands of Arabs in countries across the Mideast poured out of mosques after midday prayers on Friday, according to <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j_hCDFgXp_BIc5eHvDtJm5wTtuyQ?docId=0c3a9b2bc11c426bad55073a2333453b "Associated Press."#> So what we see are two very dangerous major trends going on. The first trend is increasing unrest and volatility in one country after another in the Mideast. This is particularly critical in Yemen, the headquarters of Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), the terrorist organization that has replaced the Pakistan al-Qaeda as the most dangerous international terror organization. With Houthi rebels fighting in the north, and AQAP and secessionists fighting in the south, Yemen's government in Sanaa has almost lost control of the country. The second dangerous trend is economic collapse in the region. The original riots in Tunisia and Egypt were triggered by food riots, as international food prices reached historic highs. Since then, the economies of Tunisia, Libya and Egypt have been devastated, with knock-on effects in the Palestinian territories and Jordan. And a cutoff of Libyan oil could create knock-on effects around the world. Now, add to that mix a new military front for American and Nato forces to add the big existing commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan. If American and Nato forces truly are being injected into Libya, then it won't be long for the Arab world to turn against those actions, irrespective of what Arab leaders may be saying today. Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major new regional war with 100% certainty, re-fighting the genocidal war between Arabs and Jews that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel in 1948. World leaders are going to be rushing to do anything possible to stabilize the current unrest in the Mideast. However, it's hard for me, at least, to see how they're going to stop the two dangerous trends that I've described. If they can't, then the situation could spiral into a regional war this year. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Growing Palestinian population is destabilizing Jordan King Abdullah II of Jordan is facing another dangerous trend: the tribal structure is being stressed by the country's large and growing population of Palestinians. Officially, 49% of the population of Jordan is Palestinian, many believe that the figure has reached 60% and is growing. <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-jordan-tribes-20110225,0,4453115.story "LA Times"#> =// .h4 Former Soviet countries vastly increase arms spending The countries of the former Soviet Union, from Kyrgyzstan to Azerbaijan, have boosted their arms spending six times faster than their economies are growing, making very likely a renewal of conflicts in both the South Caucasus and Central Asia regions. <#stdurl http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2011/02/window-on-eurasia-post-soviet-states.html "Paul Goble"#> =// .h4 Russian Orthodox churches pushes 'Ethnic Orthodox' concept As mutual xenophobia between ethnic Russians and North Caucasus Muslims increases and leads to spurts of violence, the leadership of the Russian Orthodox Church is pushing the idea of a new term, "ethnic Orthodox," to combine nationality and religion. <#stdurl http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2011/02/window-on-eurasia-moscow-patriarchate.html "Paul Goble"#> =// .h4 Germany is in open revolt against European bailout "It looks this week as though the spirit of revolution has hit Germany, where first the Bundestag and the Bundesbank, and now the country's academic establishment and business community are in open revolt against Angela Merkel's policy to bolster the European rescue / bailout mechanism. This is a very serious situation in our view, on the verge of getting out of control. The conservative establishment is in open rebellion against a weak government about to face a string of electoral defeats. German business associations are also coming out in protest against an increase in the rescue umbrella." <#stdurl http://www.eurointelligence.com/ "Euro Intelligence"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=672 "26-Feb-11 News -- Gaddafi's bloody fanaticism makes US/Nato military action increasingly likely"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110225 25-Feb-11 News -- Libya's Muammar Gaddafi uses the 'Nescafé defense' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110225.head 25-Feb-11 News -- Libya's Muammar Gaddafi uses the 'Nescafé defense' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110225.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110225.loc ww2010.weblog.log1102 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110225.date 25-Feb-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110225.txt1 Stock market margin debt highest since 2008 financial crisis =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110225.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Libya's Muammar Gaddafi uses the 'Nescafé defense'" In a telephone interview on Thursday, Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi described the protesters, according to <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/24/us-libya-protests-gaddafi-idUSTRE71N4NI20110224 "Reuters"#>:
"Their ages are 17. They give them pills at night, they put hallucinatory pills in their drinks, their milk, their coffee, their Nescafe. They are criminals ... is it logical that you let this phenomenon continue in any city? ... We do not see what is happening in Egypt and Tunisia happening in Libya, ever! Those (in Egypt and Tunisia) are people needing their governments and they have demands; our power is in the hands of the people. ... What is happening [violent clashes] in Zawiyah is a farce ... Sane men don't enter such a farce. You people of Zawiyah, stop your children, take their weapons, bring them away from Bin Laden, the pills will kill them. Leave the country calm."This is a very interesting generational exhortation. This might have worked 20 years ago, when the parents' generation was the same as his generation. But today, the parents' generation are much younger, and probably have the same contempt for Gaddafi that the young protesters have. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Europeans fear a 'Biblical exodus' of migrants from Libya Europeans fear a 'Biblical exodus' of hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants fleeing to Europe, if the situation in Libya deteriorates further. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,747459,00.html#ref=nlint "Spiegel"#> =// .h4 Stock market margin debt highest since 2008 financial crisis Stock market margin debt has surged 4.7% in January, climbing to the highest level since the financial crisis in 2008. This means that investors are borrowing more and more money to invest in the stock market. This is what happened in 1929, and what happened in 2007. <#stdurl http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=201102231330dowjonesdjonline000441&title=nysemargin-debt-up-47in-januaryagain-at-highest-since-2008 "Nasdaq/DJ"#> =// .h4 Poll indicates most Palestinians will participate in elections According to poll results, most Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza are planning to participate in the elections planned for July and September, and 75% want a change in leadership. 37% said that they "trusted Fatah," 9% said they trusted Hamas, and 36% said that they didn't trust any faction. <#stdurl http://english.pnn.ps/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=9587&Itemid=56 "Palestine News Network"#> =// .h4 China's leadership increasingly fearful of the internet China's leadership is getting increasingly concerned that they're losing control over the internet, and they fear that use of the internet will trigger a major rebellion. <#stdurl http://www.eurasiareview.com/analysis/china-will-it-cross-the-rubicon-of-its-history-24022011/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+eurasiareview%2FVsnE+%28Eurasia+Review%29 "Bahukutumbi Raman."#> =// .h4 Delhi workers protest high food prices in India Tens of thousands of trade unionists demonstrated in Delhi on Wednesday, protesting high food prices in India. <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/indian-trade-unions-rally-over-food-prices-2223702.html "Independent (London)"#> =// .h4 How to build your own 'Watson Jr.' in your basement For super-geeks: If you enjoyed watching IBM's Watson supercomputer win at Jeopardy! last week (see <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110219 ""19-Feb-11 News -- IBM's Watson supercomputer bests human champions on Jeopardy!""#>), then here's how to build your own "Watson Jr." in your basement. <#stdurl https://www.ibm.com/developerworks/mydeveloperworks/blogs/InsideSystemStorage/entry/ibm_watson_how_to_build_your_own_watson_jr_in_your_basement7?lang=en "IBM Developer Works"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=670 "25-Feb-11 News -- Libya's Muammar Gaddafi uses the 'Nescafé defense'"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110224 24-Feb-11 News -- Clashes in Jos, Nigeria, pit Christians against Muslims =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110224.head 24-Feb-11 News -- Clashes in Jos, Nigeria, pit Christians against Muslims =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110224.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110224.loc ww2010.weblog.log1102 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110224.date 24-Feb-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110224.txt1 Iran's Ahmadinejad tells Arab leaders to respect protesters =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110224.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Clashes in Jos, Nigeria, pit Christians against Muslims" <#inc ww2010.pic g110223.gif right "" "Nigeria, showing major historic tribes. Northern tribes (Fulani, Hausa) are generally Muslim, southern tribes (Yoruba, Igbo, Berom) are generally Christian."#> On Tuesday, attackers armed with rifles killed 18 people in a village just outside of Jos, in central Nigeria. The attackers are believed to be members of the mostly Muslim Fulani ethnic group, according to <#stdurl http://af.reuters.com/article/nigeriaNews/idAFLDE71L1TD20110222 "Reuters."#> This is presumably revenge for attacks by Christian gangs last month. According to <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748703833204576114403560540140.html "Reuters,"#> Christian youth gangs from the Berom ethnic group set up illegal roadblocks around Jos, stopping vehicles, and pulling out and killing people believed to be Muslims. Violence and atrocities between Muslims and Christians are a frequent occurrence in Jos, where at least 200 people have been killed since the beginning of December. Jos is in the middle of Nigeria, right on the fault line between Muslims who live in the north and Christians who live in the south. The northern part of Nigeria is mostly Muslim, because of centuries of migration from the Maghreb, the region in northern Africa that was conquered by Arab Muslims in the centuries following the death of Mohammed. The southern part of Nigeria, especially around the Port Harcourt area, is predominantly Christian, following centuries of colonization by the Europeans, taking advantage of opportunities for mining and the slave trade. Over time, many of the southern tribes were converted to Christianity. In the middle of Nigeria is the city of Jos, heavily populated by both Muslims and Christians. There have been a number of secular confrontations in Jos over time, so the current clashes are nothing new. A farm owner in Jos writes the following in the blog for the <#stdurl http://ndwgnews.blogspot.com/2011/02/normas-letter-from-jos-23-february-2011.html "Niger Delta Working Group"#>:
"The situation is actually more frightening than open fighting because every day there are silent killings of individuals, mainly youth, who go into areas of the other faith. Muslim okada riders are killed in Christian areas, and Christian youth (also mainly on motorcycles) are killed in Muslim areas. This happens both at night and during day times. There is incredible bitterness on both sides. A lot of the killing is done between youth who actually know each other and were previously friends before the crisis intervened. Everyone is afraid to move freely around the town, and most people stay in their immediate environment where they have a sense of some security. Jos town is traumatised and divided. Life in the town has been completely disrupted. Public transportation is very difficult, as Muslim drivers won't go into Christian areas and vice versa. The same for Okada riders. People try to find out the religion of the motorcyclist before engaging them for a journey for fear of being kidnapped and killed."This is an example of the enormous level of mutual xenophobia that can develop between two ethnic or religious groups. You might think that Nigeria is very close to civil war, and many people do think so, but Generational Dynamics tells us that Nigeria is actually very far from a civil war. (See <#hreftext ww2010.i.basics ""Basics of Generational Dynamics.""#>) Nigeria's last generational crisis war as the Nigerian civil war, or Biafran war, fought from 1967-69 between Muslims and Christians. The survivors of that extremely violent, bloody, genocidal war never want to see anything like it happen again. 40 years have now passed. The young post-war children are the Christian and Muslim gangs that are going out killing each other in gang fights. But as long as their parents are around, the gang fights will not take the next step into full scale civil war. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Iran's Ahmadinejad tells Arab leaders to respect protesters The laugh of the day is from Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He condemned the brutal violence going on in Libya, and said, "How can a leader subject his own people to a shower of machine-guns, tanks and bombs? How can a leader bomb his own people, and afterwards say 'I will kill anyone who says anything?'. I seriously want -- from all heads of states -- to pay attention to their people and cooperate, to sit down and talk, and listen to their words. Why do they act so badly that their people need to apply pressure for reforms?" It's too bad that Ahmadinejad won't take his own advice and listen to Iran's people, instead of committing atrocities against them. <#stdurl http://af.reuters.com/article/tunisiaNews/idAFLDE71M0J620110223 "Reuters"#> =// .h4 If Muammar Gaddafi could find refuge in Israel If Muammar Gaddafi is forced to flee Libya, and wonders who will take him in, one country that would have to take him in and provide refuge is Israel. <#stdurl http://www.israeltoday.co.il/NewsItem/tabid/178/nid/22668/Default.aspx "Israel Today"#> =// .h4 Russia to evacuate hundreds of engineers from Libya Russia plans to evacuate hundreds of engineers working on investment projects in Libya, but it's not yet known how it will be able to execute the evacuations. <#stdurl http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russians-pulled-out-of-rebellious-libya/431429.html "Moscow Times"#> =// .h4 100,000 people demonstrate against Bahrain's government Bahrain is an island nation with only 500,000 citizens, so it's astonishing that more than 100,000 demonstrators packed Pearl Square in Manama, the capital city. <#stdurl http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/world/middleeast/23bahrain.html "NY Times"#> =// .h4 Tens of thousands in India protest high food prices Tens of thousands of trade unionists in India, linked both with the opposition Communist Party and with the governing Congress Party, marched through Delhi on Tuesday, protesting high food prices. <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/indian-trade-unions-rally-over-food-prices-2223702.html "AP"#> =// .h4 Catholic Church to blame for collapse of Catholic mission to Inca Empire According to a new study, the principal blame for the collapse of the Catholic mission to the Inca Empire in 16-17th century Peru goes to the policy of the Church itself, rather than to failings of the missionaries. <#stdurl http://www.eurasiareview.com/life-and-style/religion/the-catholic-mission-in-the-inca-empire-lacked-responsible-church-leadership-23022011 "Eurasia Review"#> =// .h4 Violent clashes between unions and police in Athens, Greece It's been almost a year since Greece was bailed out by the European Union, and there is still plenty of discontent over the austerity measures that the government was forced to impose. On Wednesday, tens of thousands of union members attended a rally in Athens to protest the austerity measures. Violent clashes broke out. Some 15 policemen were injured, and nine suspected rioters were arrested, including a man who was allegedly armed with a longbow, arrows and an axe, police said. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5htHKEXBGVM9zoZ1HwmcWX54pYt4w?docId=fdd1d46fa3bc4f8cb47703313b1adf60 "AP"#> =// .h4 Democratic party leader advocates union violence I wrote last year about <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e100530 ""The rise of left-wing violence around the world.""#> No violence has yet occurred in the bitter union battle going on in Wisconsin but one Massachusetts Democratic party leader appears to be advocating violence. Rep. Michael Capuano is quoted as saying, "I’m proud to be here with people who understand that it’s more than just sending an email to get you going. Every once and awhile you need to get out on the streets and get a little bloody when necessary." <#stdurl http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/145627-dem-lawmaker-on-labor-protests-get-a-little-bloody-when-necessary "The Hill"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=669 "24-Feb-11 News -- Clashes in Jos, Nigeria, pit Christians against Muslims"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110223 23-Feb-11 News -- Libya's Muammar Gaddafi gives a psychopathic speech to his people =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110223.head 23-Feb-11 News -- Libya's Muammar Gaddafi gives a psychopathic speech to his people =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110223.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110223.loc ww2010.weblog.log1102 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110223.date 23-Feb-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110223.txt1 Germany's Merkel calls the speech 'very, very frightening' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110223.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Libya's Muammar Gaddafi gives a psychopathic speech to his people" It's fashionable these days for anyone to compare his political enemies to Hitler. But as I watched Libya's Muammar Gaddafi give his 75 minute speech on Tuesday on Al-Jazeera, all I could think was that Hitler had been resurrected. Gaddafi is truly a psychopath, and feels no guilt for the atrocities that he's launched against his own people. <#inc ww2010.pic g110222.jpg right "" "Muammar Gaddafi on Tuesday"#> I assume that comparison also crossed the mind of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whom <#stdurl http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFLDE71L2GN20110222 "Reuters"#> quotes as saying, "The news we've had from Libya yesterday and today is worrying and the speech by Colonel Gaddafi this afternoon was very, very frightening, especially because he virtually declared war on his own people." Gaddafi spent half an hour bragging about his exploits. He had created Libya. He had fought in this battle or that battle. He had killed this and that enemy. He had brought safety, security and propserity to the Libyan people. So why aren't you people grateful? We are still building Libya. Why are young people burning it down? If young people don't follow me, then who will they follow? Someone with a beard? He blamed the media, he blamed the Islamists. He said that he would never surrender. He said that drugged young people are acting against the constitution, threatening the military, threatening the country -- when they're caught, they will be begging for mercy, "and we will not be merciful." He said that he's leader of the revolution, and he'll always be leader of the revolution, and he'll die a martyr. He was very bitter about the sycophants who used to kiss his hand, but have now turned against him. He was bitter and threatening. <#inc ww2010.pic g110220b.gif right "" "Libya, showing the three historic divisions: Tripolitania, Fezzan and Cyrenaica"#> Here are some more quotes from the <#stdurl http://blogs.aljazeera.net/africa/2011/02/22/live-blog-libya-feb-22 "Al-Jazeera"#> live blog.
"Muammar Gaddafi is not the president, he is the leader of the revolution. He has nothing to lose. Revolution means sacrifice until the very end of your life We challenge America with its mighty power, we challenge even the superpower Muammar Gaddafi is not a normal person that you can poison.. or lead a revolution against I will fight until the last drop of blood with the people behind me I haven't even started giving the orders to use bullets - any use of force against authority of state will be sentenced to death They are just imitating Egypt and Tunisia Protesters want to turn Libya into an Islamic state If you love Muammar Gaddafi you will go out and secure Libya's streets"Here's one more quote from the speech, where he referred to the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre by the Chinese: "People in front of tanks were crushed. The unity of China was more important than those people in Tiananmen Square. ... When Tiananmen Square happened, tanks were sent in to deal with them. It's not a joke. I will do whatever it takes to make sure part of the country isn't taken away." This is the first time, as far as I can recall, that I've ever heard anyone, even the Chinese, speak of the Tiananmen Square massacre in a positive, approving manner. I wish I could convey in words the screaming, ranting man that I saw. This is a guy who is capable of anything, without remorse. He's already using outside mercenaries to kill protesters, since he can't count on his own police to kill their fellow Libyans. Some commentators said that they feared that he might turn to poison gas to stop the protesters. The best thing that can happen is for someone close to him to put a bullet in his head. Besides Hitler, Gaddafi also reminds me of Saddam Hussein. When Iraq annexed Kuwait in 1990, President Bush warned him months in advance that an invasion is coming. Up until the last day, Saddam could have stopped the 1991 Iraq war by retreating from Kuwait, but he refused to do so. During the Clinton administration, Saddam was constantly blocking the U.N. from conducting WMD inspections, with the result that the Clinton administration was bombing Iraq on almost a daily basis. This eventually led to the ground invasion of Iraq in 2003. Once again, Saddam could have stopped the invasion instantly, by fully permitting inspections. Even when he was captured and put on trial, there were news stories indicating that he was convinced that the people would save him. Like Gaddafi and Hitler, Saddam never felt any remorse for the atrocities that he committed. By the way, Gaddafi's name is spelled in many different ways in different media: Gaddafi, Kadafi, Qaddafi, Khadafi, and so forth. For now, I'm using the spelling that al-Jazeera uses. Al-Jazeera's anchors and commentators were very critical and contemptuous of the United States for not intervening militarily to stop the Libya massacre. I guess they temporarily forgot how critical and contemptuous of the United States they've been for intervening militarily in Iraq and Afghanistan. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=668 "23-Feb-11 News -- Libya's Muammar Gaddafi gives a psychopathic speech to his people"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110222 22-Feb-11 News -- Libya's Gaddafi shoots to kill protesters with massive firepower =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110222.head 22-Feb-11 News -- Libya's Gaddafi shoots to kill protesters with massive firepower =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110222.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110222.loc ww2010.weblog.log1102 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110222.date 22-Feb-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110222.txt1 Banks told to stress-test for 11% jobless rate =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110222.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Libya's Gaddafi shoots to kill protesters with massive firepower" <#inc ww2010.pic g110220b.gif right "" "Libya, showing the three historic divisions: Tripolitania, Fezzan and Cyrenaica"#> Two Libyan air force pilots landed their jets in the island of Malta on Monday, according to <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/02/2011221222542234651.html "Al-Jazeera."#> They were defecting, after refusing to follow orders to attack civilian protesters in Benghazi. It now appears that Gaddafi has completely lost control of the eastern portion of Libya. News reports indicate that most of the fighting has stopped. Protesters in Tripoli aren't so lucky, however. Air force jets targeted demonstrators, and bombed entire residential neighborhoods, according to the <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/21/libya-protests-blood-fears-gone "Guardian."#> People are afraid of staying in their homes for fear of being bombed, and they're afraid to leave their homes, for fear of being shot by snipers or by helicopter gunships. Estimates are that about 250 people were killed in Tripoli on Monday alone. Many hundreds more were killed in other cities during the five days of the Libyan uprising. Libyans are reluctant to shoot and kill other Libyans, and so the snipers are apparently foreign mercenaries hired and paid by Khamis Gaddafi, another son of leader Muammar Gaddafi. <#stdurl http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/114681/20110221/khamis-gaddafi-mercenaries-chad-benghazi.htm "International Business Times (S. Africa)"#> reports that the exact country of origin of the mercenaries is not known, but Chad is suspected. The Arab League has scheduled an emergency meeting for Tuesday to discuss the situation in Libya. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Libya threatens to suspend EU migration cooperation Illegal immigration from North Africa has become an increasingly difficult issue for Europe. The government of Libya is now threatening to suspend its cooperation with the European Union in stopping illegal immigration if the EU continues to encourage pro-democracy protests in Libya. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/libya-threatens-to-suspend-eu-migration-cooperation/ "Reuters"#> =// .h4 Tunisian government protects brothels from Islamists In Tunisia last week, military helicopters and security forces were called in to protect brothels in the capital city of Tunis from a mob of zealots. After the Tunisian revolution, Islamists are demanding that the government abandon its liveral social policies and adopt strict Islamic law. <#stdurl http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/21/world/africa/21tunisia.html?_r=1&ref=world "NY Times"#> =// .h4 Banks told to stress-test for 11% jobless rate The Federal Reserve is requiring banks undergoing mandated "stress tests" of their survivability to conduct new stress tests, this time assuming a recession scenario in which the unemployment rate rises to 11%. <#stdurl http://www.marketwatch.com/story/banks-told-to-test-for-11-unemployment-report-2011-02-17 "Market Watch"#> =// .h4 Number of investors fearing a catastrophic stock market crash is rising The number of investors fearing a catastrophic stock market crash is rising. <#stdurl http://www.cnbc.com/id/41655262/ "CNBC"#> =// .h4 China plans to launch a Mars-exploration space probe in November China plans to launch a Mars-exploration space probe in November of this year. <#stdurl http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/02/21/2011022100578.html "Chosun"#> =// .h4 Russia's police defuse powerful bombs in Caucasus Russia's police defused three powerful bombs found in a car in Kabardino-Balkaria, one of Russia's southern provinces (in the North Caucasus). Kabardino-Balkaria is particularly important in relation to the seaside resort of Sochi, where Russia is to host the 2014 winter Olympics. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e101030 ""30-Oct-10 News -- Caucasus terrorism / politics becomes embroiled in 2014 Olympics""#>.) Terrorism in the North Caucasus has been increasing dramatically in the last year, despite the claims of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin that it has been brought under control. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/russia-tightens-caucasus-security-3-bombs-defused/ "Reuters"#> =// .h4 Japanese minister flies over the Kuril islands The Japanese are still furious over the visits by Russian officials to the Kuril islands, which are held by the Russians, but claimed by the Japanese, since the Russians annexed the islands after World War II. On Saturday, Japan's chief cabinet secrety flew over the Kuril Islands, " hammering home Tokyo's unwavering attitude toward the disputed Kurils." <#stdurl http://world.globaltimes.cn/asia-pacific/2011-02/625226.html "Global Times"#> =// .h4 Italy's Berlusconi under fire for not "disturbing" Gaddafi Already battered by multiple sex scandals, Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is being criticized by opposition lawmakers for failing to condemn violence in Libya, saying that he did not want to "disturb" Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi during the Libyan uprising. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/berlusconi-under-fire-for-not-disturbing-gaddafi/ "Reuters"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=667 "22-Feb-11 News -- Libya's Gaddafi shoots to kill protesters with massive firepower"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110221 21-Feb-11 News -- Libya's bloodbath spreads to Tripoli as tribal leaders turn against government =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110221.head 21-Feb-11 News -- Libya's bloodbath spreads to Tripoli as tribal leaders turn against government =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110221.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110221.loc ww2010.weblog.log1102 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110221.date 21-Feb-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110221.txt1 Son of Libya's leader Gaddafi gives a harsh, rambling speech on television. =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110221.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Libya's bloodbath spreads to Tripoli as tribal leaders turn against government" On Saturday, Libya's armed forced pursued a violent crackdown on unarmed demonstrators in eastern portion of Libya, especially in Benghazi, Bayda and Tobruk. Long convoys of military vehicles fired on demonstrators with high powered weapons. <#inc ww2010.pic g110220a.jpg center "" "Saif al-Islam Qaddafi, speaking to Libya on Sunday"#> <#stdurl http://blogs.aljazeera.net/middle-east/2011/02/17/live-blog-libya "Al-Jazeera"#> reports: "Further reports suggest the 500,000-strong Tuareg tribe in south Libya has heeded the call from the million-strong Warfala tribe to join the uprising. Protesters in Ghat and Ubary, home to Libyan Tuareg clans are reportedly attacking government buildings and police stations." On Sunday, the bloodbath spread to the capital city, Tripoli, where the army fired on thousands of anti-government protesters. However, another report indicates that fighting has stopped in the east in Benghazi, because the Tripoli army has been driven back by the Benghazi army. Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be a new Mideast war, refighting the war between Arabs and Jews that followed the 1948 partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. None of the uprisings we've seen so far -- in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain -- have seemed likely to trigger a regional war, but the Libya uprising appears to be the most dangerous so far, and threatens to pit the eastern "Egyptian" portion of Libya versus the western "African" portion of Libya, which means that it could spread to neighboring countries. Saif El Islam Gaddafi, the son of Libya's leader Muammar Gaddafi, gave a 30 minute televised speech to Libyans. His speech was rambling and harsh, and was widely ridiculed by commentators, although there's no way of knowing whether some "silent majority" were pleased with it. The following are translated snippets from the <#stdurl http://blogs.aljazeera.net/middle-east/2011/02/17/live-blog-libya "Al-Jazeera"#> live blog:
"Citizens tried to attack the army and they were in a situation that was difficult. The army was not used to dealing with riots." "Libyan citizens died and this was a tragedy." "There is a plot against Libya. People want to create a government in Benghazi and others want to have an Islamic emirate in Bayda. All these [people] have their own plots. Of course Arab media hyped this. The fault of the Libyan media is that it did not cover this. Libya is not like Egypt, it is tribes and clans, it is not a society with parties. Everyone knows their duties and this may cause civil wars. Libya is not Tunisia and Egypt. Libya has oil - that has united the whole of Libya. "I have to be honest with you. We are all armed, even the thugs and the unemployed. At this moment in time, tanks are driven about with civilians. In Bayda you have machine huns right in the middle of the city. Many arms have been stolen. "No one will come to Libya or do any business with Libya. "We will call for new media laws, civil rights, lift the stupid punishments, we will have a constitution... We will tomorrow create a new Libya. We can agree on a new national anthem, new flag, new Libya. Or be prepared for civil war. Forget about oil. "The country will be divided like North and South Korea, we will see each other through a fence. You will wait in line for months for a visa. "The Libyans who live in Europe and USA, their children go to school and they want you to fight. They are comfortable. They then want to come and rule us and Libya. They want us to kill each other then come, like in Iraq."During the course of the speech, which I heard live on al-Jazeera, he blamed the BBC, Al-Jazeera, the US, the Europeans, the Arab League, and even drug dealers. He repeatedly said that Libya was not like Tunisia or Egypt. He threatened civil war and starvation. He said that tribal wars may bring Libya back to "the civil war of 1937." I cannot find any reference to this war. It's possible that there was a translation error, or it may be that 38 year old Gaddafi is like many people and has no idea of any history prior to his birth. <#inc ww2010.pic g110220b.gif center "" "Libya, showing the three historic divisions: Tripolitania, Fezzan and Cyrenaica"#> His logic was that the country's well-being depended on oil income. He said that the oil was not in the east or the west, but in the middle, and the unrest will cause the oil exports to be cut off, causing people in the east and the west to starve. There may be some truth to this. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/20/libya-protests-idUSLDE71J00J20110220 "Reuters"#> reports that the leader of the Al-Zuwayya tribe in eastern Libya, Shaikh Faraj al Zuway, threatened to cut oil exports to Western countries within 24 hours unless authorities stopped what he called the "oppression of protesters." Commentators are predicting further massacres in the next couple of days in Libya, and the continued export of Libyan oil is in question. An analysis of the Libyan situation requires additional information about the tribal dynamics of the country, something about which I have limited information. If you're familiar with the situation in Libya, and particularly if you've lived in Libya, then I would welcome your comments, directed to me in private comments or in the public forum on my web site. Finally, here's a neat <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/20/libya-protests-idUSLDE71J00J20110220 "Reuters"#> graphic: <#inc ww2010.pic g110220c.jpg center "" "Major Arab state hotspots"#> This shows all the Arab countries that experienced uprisings and unrest since the beginning of the year. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=666 "21-Feb-11 News -- Libya's bloodbath spreads to Tripoli as tribal leaders turn against government"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110220 20-Feb-11 News -- Bloodbath in Libya, while Bahrain's government backs down =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110220.head 20-Feb-11 News -- Bloodbath in Libya, while Bahrain's government backs down =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110220.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110220.loc ww2010.weblog.log1102 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110220.date 20-Feb-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110220.txt1 Saudi Arabia surrounded by riots in Yemen, Jordan, Iran, Bahrain and more =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110220.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Bloodbath in Libya, while Bahrain's government backs down" <#inc ww2010.mappic libya.gif right "" "Libya (Source: CIA Fact Book)"#> Government armed forced pursued a violent crackdown on unarmed demonstrators in eastern portion of Libya on Saturday, especially in Benghazi, Bayda and Tobruk. According to the <#stdurl http://www.arabmonitor.info/news/dettaglio.php?idnews=32999&lang=en "Arab Monitor,"#> long convoys of military vehicles went into eastern regions and fired on demonstrators with high powered weapons. The death toll may be well over 100, although exact numbers cannot be confirmed. Bahrain's royal family bowed to international pressure on Saturday and pulled its tanks out of Pearl Square in Manama, the capital city, allowing the protesters to continue their peaceful demonstrations. Riots and demonstrations have been spreading throughout the Mideast. A country-by-country summary by <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/02/19/mideast.africa.unrest/ "CNN"#> summarizes protests in the following countries: Libya, Yemen, Iran, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Djibouti, Algeria, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, and Palestinian territories. There have been no major riots in Saudi Arabia, mainly because of the country's vast oil wealth, according to the <#stdurl http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/20/world/middleeast/20saudi.html "NY Times."#> However, the Saudis are feeling increasingly isolated and concerned, according to the article, and fear that the United States may no longer be a reliable backer. I heard something of a joke on the BBC on Saturday, interviewing an analyst talking about all the demonstrations in the Mideast:
ANALYST: You know, I really wonder what George Bush thinks about everything that's going on. INTERVIEWER: Well, he probably would say that this is exactly what he wanted -- to start from the war in Iraq, and see democracy spread throughout the Middle East. ANALYST: Then he simply should have raised food prices.Good point. It's somewhat romantic to claim that all of this unrest comes from a desire for liberty and freedom beating in the hearts of the oppressed masses, but it's much more likely that it comes from a desire to feed their families, as food prices continue at historically high levels. This is consistent with the claim that there are no riots in Saudi Arabia because of the nation's wealth. (Paragraph updated - 20-Feb)]] (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=665 "20-Feb-11 News -- Bloodbath in Libya, while Bahrain's government backs down"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110219 19-Feb-11 News -- IBM's Watson supercomputer bests human champions on Jeopardy! =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110219.head 19-Feb-11 News -- IBM's Watson supercomputer bests human champions on Jeopardy! =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110219.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110219.loc ww2010.weblog.log1102 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110219.date 19-Feb-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110219.txt1 US vetoes UN resolution declaring Israeli settlements illegal =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110219.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "IBM's Watson supercomputer bests human champions on Jeopardy!" <#inc ww2010.pic g110218.jpg right "" "Ken Jennings, Watson's avatar, and Brad Rutter prepare to play Jeopardy!"#> IBM's Watson supercomputer performed spectacularly well on the Jeopardy! television programs aired earlier this week. Watson played against two former champions, and won $77,147 versus their winnings of $24,000 and $21,600, respectively. Watson was by no means omniscient, as the <#stdurl http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/17/science/17jeopardy-watson.html "NY Times"#> pointed out. In one case, the clue was: “Its largest airport is named for a World War II hero; its second largest for a World War II battle," within the category of "U.S. Cities." Watson guessed "What is Toronto," drawing laughter. (The designer explained that Watson understood that the response had to be related to a US city, but didn't really that to actually be a US city.) Those moments were in the minority. In question after question, Watson was able to parse through layers of meanings and double meanings to come up with the correct response. People who pooh-pooh this accomplishment because it's just a robot that can solve problems in one particular game are completely missing the point. This is version one of a very powerful capability. It's quite reasonable to assume that ten years from now, you'll be carrying an iPhone-like device which will answer any question you ask it. Between now and then, there'll be all sorts of special-purpose applications developed. Within a couple of years, expect to see everything from online technical support web sites to Home Depot kiosks answering your questions. As I wrote last year in <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e101227 ""27-Dec-10 News -- IBM vs Jeopardy! brings robotic warfare and the Singularity closer,""#> this accomplishment is a highly significant event. The Singularity is the point in time when computers will be more intelligent and more creative than humans. At that point there will be a sharp bend in the technology curve, since super-intelligent computers will be able to develop new technologies exponentially faster than humans, including technologies to make themselves faster. After that, they will essentially be running the world. As I wrote in that article, based on algorithms that I've developed, I estimate that the Singularity will occur around 2030. But the Jeopardy! accomplishment calls that date into question, and makes an earlier date more likely, in my opinion. Comedian Conan O'Brien invited "Watson" to appear on his program as a guest announcer, but "Watson" got into a big fight with the human announcer, Andy Richter. Here's the video:
[youtube B6RCBOC-MAM nolink]
Both Tunisia and Egypt have chosen a non-massacre scenario, and both of those governments have been overthrown. The Bahrain government decided to learn that lesson, and follow the path of Thailand and Iran. And like both of the latter countries, Bahrain is in a generational Awakening era. This means that the riots and demonstrations will only continue, with increasing violence over a period of years. And this puts into question of the U.S. Navy's <#stdurl http://www.cusnc.navy.mil/ "Fifth Fleet,"#> which is headquartered in Manama, with responsibility for the area stretching from the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, including the Arabian Sea and the entire Persian Gulf. Bahrain is just a group of 33 small islands. For millennia, Bahrain has alternated between Arab rulers and Persian rulers. For almost two centuries, it's had a government of Sunni tribal leaders, although the population is 2/3 Shia. Thus, unlike Tunisia and Egypt, Bahrain has a substantial ethnic fault line between the monarchy and the majority population. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.subref e110214 e110214c ""14-Feb-11 News -- Reader question about the Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood.""#>) <#inc ww2010.pic PersianGulf.gif center "" "Persian Gulf region. Bahrain's 33 small islands are a tiny dot in this map"#> This is the difference that motivated Bahrain's government to take the massacre route. Furthermore, unrest in Bahrain could easily spread to its neighbors, especially Saudi Arabia. The <#stdurl http://arabnews.com/middleeast/article269061.ece "Arab News"#> reports that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) foreign ministers met in Manama on Thursday, and took a unified stand to counter any threat to the bloc's member countries. According to Bahrain's foreign minister, "The GCC ministerial council declared its total support to Bahrain because GCC's security and stability is indivisible." =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Britain may require elderly to pay for medical care Britain is adopting policies that may force its elderly to pay for their own medical care. <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/8326605/Baby-boomers-must-pay-for-their-own-elderly-care.html "Telegraph"#> =// .h4 Iran's Natanz nuclear facility recovered quickly from Stuxnet cyberattack Thanks to a feverish recovery effort, Iran's Natanz nuclear facility has recovered more quickly than expected from the cyberattack by the Stuxnet virus. <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/15/AR2011021506501.html "Washington Post"#> =// .h4 Russia considers fingerprinting its migrants Because of growing xenophobia between ethnic Russians and Caucasus Muslims, and because of the recent terrorist attack on Moscow's airport, Russian policy are considering a policy of requiring mandatory fingerprinting and DNA registration of all migrants who seek work in the country. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jPCAdy0w7EuO2hOUapYcxmsdVzWQ?docId=CNG.2feda1c6289a29f15f093bf828524495.3d1 "AFP"#> =// .h4 Russian concern about China's J-20 stealth fighter Like the US, Russian analysts are concerned about the capabilities of China's recently announced J-20 stealth fighter. But unlike the US, they're keeping quiet about their concerns, following a policy of not discussing any China threat in public. This isbased on an old Russian saying about not calling the bear out of the woods. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37517&tx_ttnews[backPid]=512 "Jamestown"#> =// .h4 Liberal religions losing membership According to a study by the Catholic League, the religions that gaining the most in membership are the ones that hold conservative views on abortion and gay marriage, while many of the religions that have liberal views have declined in membership. Of the major religions, the ones gaining in membership are: the Catholic Church, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, the Assemblies of God, the Jehovah's Witnesses and the Seventh-Day Adventist Church. Those witnessing a decline include: the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.), the Episcopal Church, the United Church of Christ. the United Methodist Church, the Evangelical Lutheran Church, the Lutheran Church-Missouri Synod and the American Baptist Churches U.S.A. <#stdurl http://xy4.us/p/?__p=_1795-523/1EMO50Y4Y-7/LIBERAL%20RELIGIONS%20IN%20FREE%20FALL.html "Catholic League"#> =// .h4 NYC launches app for free condoms In case you unexpectedly get lucky, New York City is launching a new iPhone/Android app that will tell you the nearest place giving out free condoms. <#stdurl http://af.reuters.com/article/oddlyEnoughNews/idAFTRE71E2NA20110215 "Reuters"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=660 "18-Feb-11 News -- Bahrain's government chooses the massacre scenario"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110217 17-Feb-11 News -- Thailand vs Cambodia border clash damages ancient Hindu temple =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110217.head 17-Feb-11 News -- Thailand vs Cambodia border clash damages ancient Hindu temple =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110217.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110217.loc ww2010.weblog.log1102 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110217.date 17-Feb-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110217.txt1 Both Thailand and Cambodia claim the Preah Vihear Hindu temple =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110217.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Thailand vs Cambodia border clash damages ancient Hindu temple" Nationalist feelings in both Cambodia and Thailand have resulted in border clashes, thanks to a disagreements about the ownership of the ancient Preah Vihear Hindu temple, on what is today the border between the two countries, according to <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/02/16/cambodia.thailand.violence/ "CNN."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110216a.jpg center "" "Preah Vihear temple, Cambodia, Thailand"#> Historically, the temple was built by the Khmer (Cambodians) in the 11th century. In 1907, French surveyors determined the border between Siam (Thailand) and Cambodia, but "bent" the border in order to put the temple on the Cambodian side. However, the temple is on a cliff on the Cambordian side, so the only way to access the temple easily is from the Thai side. Thailand's army took control of the temple in 1954, causing Cambodia to appeal to the United Nations. The International Court of Justice ruled that the temple was in Cambodian territory, which infuriated the Thai. =// http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Thailand_since_1973 The two countries' last generational crisis war was the bloody Cambodian "killing fields" civil war, followed by the Vietnamese invasion of Cambodia, in the late 1970s. <#inc ww2010.pic g110216b.gif center "" "Map of Preah Vihear temple, Cambodia, Thailand"#> This war split Thailand along its traditional fault line: The fair-skinned Thai-Chinese, market-dominant minority living mostly in Bangkok and to the south; and the vast majority, the poor dark-skinned laborers, mainly from farms in Thailand's northeast. A bloody massacre on October 6, 1976, led students and other leftists to join Communist party forces in the northeast. Refugees from the war in Cambodia fled into Thailand, only to be treated violently and forced to return. The fault line between the classes has turned into the now-famous rallies between the "yellow shirt" élites and the "red shirt" laborer class. In particular, this led to the bloody massacre of red shirts in Bangkok last May, leaving behind an enormously bitter class division. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e100524 ""24-May-10 News -- Les Miserables of Thailand at a turning point.""#>) Border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia began in 2008, when Unesco agreed with a request by Cambodia, and declared that the Preah Vihear temple was a "world heritage site," once again infuriating the Thais. There are now thousands of troops on each side of the border, according to <#stdurl http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v5/newsindex.php?id=564107 "Bernama (Myanmar)."#> <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/khmer-english/news/Cambodia-To-Seek-Asean-Monitors-at-Border-116309619.html "VOA"#> reports that in border clashes earlier this month, seven people were killed, and the temple itself was damaged. The deep ethnic and class divisions from the last crisis war are plainly apparent in Bangkok today, according to <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Rival-Protests-Held-in-Thai-Capital-116112794.html "VOA."#> Thousands of protesters on both sides have been demonstrating in Bangkok. Some 15,000 "Red Shirts" from the laborer class staged mass anti-government protests, demanding the release of their jailed movement leaders. Nearby, the "Yellow Shirts" from the élite class were demonstrating and making nationalistic demands for the resignation of the prime minister over his wimpy handling of the dispute with Cambodia over the border and the temple. In other words, the political situation today in Thailand is totally chaotic. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is very typical of a generational Awakening era. Readers who were around during America's last Awakening era in the 1960s will recall that the politics then were equally chaotic, with civil rights marches, the Vietnam war, political assassinations, student protests, and bombings by the Weather Underground. With both Cambodia and Thailand in a generational Awakening era, there is no chance today of a major war between the two countries, or for a new civil war in either country. There may be brief conflicts, and it's even possible that the there will be further damage to the temple, but the clashes will fizzle fairly soon. <#inc ww2010.pic g110207b.jpg right "" "Thai schoolgirl uniforms"#> A poll conducted by a Japanese news web site found that college girls in Thailand wear the sexiest uniforms in the world, according to <#stdurl http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2956&Itemid=392 "Asia Sentinel."#> Now, Dear Reader, you may be wondering why I mention this in a story about a border war. Am I just looking for an excuse to add a picture of sexy college girls to my report? Well, believe it or not, Dear Reader, this is quite relevant. Once again, recall America's last Awakening era in the 1960s. Those of you who were around then will recall the introduction of miniskirts, hot pants, and bra-burning during that period. It was the age of "women's lib," when young girls rebelled against the austere rules laid down by their war-survivor parents. This is the kind of thing that happens in Awakening eras. Iran is also in an Awakening era. After Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected president, he began to crack down on young women who didn't entirely cover their hair. (See my 2007 report, <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e070425b ""Iranian police swoop down on women with loose headscarves.""#>) This has been one of the funniest stories to come out of Iran in recent years. This is in contrast to America today, in a generational Crisis era. Women today are moving in the opposite direction, and becoming increasingly modest, while both men and women are increasingly adopting their stereotypical roles that they supposedly abandoned after the 1960s. It will be interesting the watch the fallout from the horrible sexual assault of CBS reporter Lara Logan in Egypt on Friday (<#stdurl http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/02/15/ap/celebrities/main7352886.shtml "Associated Press"#>) My expectation is that it will lead to widespread questioning about whether beautiful women should be present in crisis-torn regions of the world as American reporters. As for Thailand and Cambodia, their fate is sealed on a highly predictable course. The border clashes will increase in severity as the years go by, and the violence between the classes in both countries will also increase over the years. This is the manner in which one genocidal crisis war eventually leads to the next one, decades later. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=659 "17-Feb-11 News -- Thailand vs Cambodia border clash damages ancient Hindu temple"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110216 16-Feb-11 News -- Tunisian refugees flood into Italy =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110216.head 16-Feb-11 News -- Tunisian refugees flood into Italy =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110216.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110216.loc ww2010.weblog.log1102 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110216.date 16-Feb-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110216.txt1 Commodity and import price increases signal lower corporate earnings =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110216.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Tunisian refugees flood into Italy" <#inc ww2010.pic g110215b.gif right "" "Lampedusa Island"#> Since the uprising began in Tunisia in mid-January, thousands of French-speaking Tunisians have taken advantage of the chaos to migrate to Italy through the Mediterranean island of Lampedusa, mostly for economic reasons, according to <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/UN-Smugglers-Taking-Advantage-Of-Tunisian-Migrants-116238819.html "VOA."#> Lampedusa Island is part of Italy. However, some of them may be seeking asylum, for having been part of the regime of Tunisia's former president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who was forced to flee the country after the uprising began. Smugglers are making huge profits, charging Tunisians about $1,800 to get to Italy, according to the article. Migrants are packed into small boats for the trip from Tunisia to Lampedusa. There have been several drownings. Once they reach Lampedusa, they're packed into overcrowded refugee camps. Then, under international law, Italy is obligated to fly migrants from Lampedusa to the Italian mainland as quickly as possible, according to the <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12446555 "BBC."#> Thus, the Italians are saying that the sudden wave of migrants is an EU problem, not just an Italy problem. <#stdurl http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,14843170,00.html "Deutsche-Welle"#> reports that the EU has offered to fast-track funds for Italy to help deal with the problem. "Emergency financial envelopes" from existing EU funds will be given to refugees. However, the German government has rejected a proposal that Tunisian refugees in Italy be automatically apportioned to other countries in the EU. The increasing flow of Tunisian refugees is only part of the problem, according to <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,745669,00.html#ref=nlint "Spiegel."#> Refugees are beginning to arrive from Egypt, and it's feared that with unrest spreading to other Mideast countries from Algeria to Bahrain, there will be a flood of tens of thousands of refugees attempting to reach Europe to find a job and a better life. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Commodity and import price increases signal lower corporate earnings" The Dept. of Labor announced on Wednesday that the cost of imported goods rose almost twice as much as expected, according to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-15/import-prices-in-u-s-rose-1-5-in-january-led-by-fuels-food.html "Bloomberg."#> Import prices increased 1.5% during the month of January, compared to December, while economists had expected only a 0.8% increase. The biggest contributors to the price increases were imported commodities, including oil, food and building materials. [[Update: A web site reader cleared up some confusion by posting in the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=655&p=7879#p7879 "Generational Dynamics forum"#> an explanation of why we're importing building materials: "We import huge quantities of concrete from Mexico, much of our lumber comes from Canada, China is sending literally boat loads of plywood,sheetrock, steel etc.........not to mention wiring and other electrical components as well as plumbing components." (Paragraph added - 16-Feb)]] According to the article, the jobless rate of 9% will mean that US companies will have limited ability to pass along the higher costs to consumers. Higher commodity prices have already had significant effects on fourth quarter earnings, according to the <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703515504576142172222436668.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>. With limited ability to pass along price increases, many companies are being forced to report lower operating margins, with consequent effects on their stock prices. The article quotes a Citibank expert as saying, "I think this quarter was a wake-up call. We're seeing these stocks get hit on margins and sell off dramatically. It's definitely picking up steam and becoming much more on the tops of investors' minds, and it's only going to continue as we move through 2011." According to the article, many analysts are not taking these lower margins into account, and they're overestimating future profits. This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone, since financial analysts almost always overestimate future earnings, in order to justify the fees and commissions that companies pay them. As we've been saying repeatedly, most recently in <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110214 ""14-Feb-11 News -- Bangladesh stock market continues free fall, while Cairo's remains closed,""#> the stock market is overpriced by a factor of almost 200%, and has been in a bubble that could explode in panic at any time. <#inc ww2010.pic g110215c.gif right "" "Dhaka stock market, 15-Feb-11 "#> By the way, the Dhaka stock market index rose 6% on Tuesday, after the Bangladesh government announced that four state-controlled commercial banks would provide support for the stock market by investing several hundred million dollars. The Dhaka stock exchange is in the midst of a full scale stock market crash, after stock prices almost doubled last year, bring 3.5 investors into the market. It remains to be seen whether the government can stop the market from crashing further. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=655 "16-Feb-11 News -- Tunisian refugees flood into Italy"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110215 15-Feb-11 News -- Tens of thousands in Iran demonstrate against government and face violence =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110215.head 15-Feb-11 News -- Tens of thousands in Iran demonstrate against government and face violence =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110215.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110215.loc ww2010.weblog.log1102 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110215.date 15-Feb-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110215.txt1 Clinton: Iran's government shows 'hypocrisy' after applauding Egypt's demonstrations =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110215.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Tens of thousands in Iran demonstrate against government and face violence" US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton criticized the "hypocrisy" of Iran's government on Monday, as the government used violent police tactics to suppress anti-government rallies in Tehran and other cities in Iran, according to <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Clinton-Accuses-Iranian-of-Hypocrisy-Over-Egypt-Protests-116194189.html "VOA"#>:"What we see happening in Iran today is a testament to the courage of the Iranian people and an indictment of the hypocrisy of the Iranian regime - a regime, which over the last three weeks has constantly hailed what went on in Egypt. And now, when given the opportunity to afford their people the same rights as they called for on behalf of the Egyptian people, [Iran's leaders] once again illustrate their true nature."Tens of thousands of anti-government protesters, calling for solidarity with the demonstrations in Egypt, clashed with police in central Tehran on Monday. Police fired tear gas and paintballs at protesters, according to <#stdurl http://www.jordantimes.com/?news=34497 "AFP."#> This was the first mass anti-government protest since 2009. The protests began following the reelection of president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in an election which many people believed was fraudulent. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e090614 ""Iran: Violent street demonstrations follow Ahmadinejad's landslide election victory.""#>) When the protests first erupted, almost all analysts predicted that the protests would soon end once and for all, comparing the situation in Iran to the Tiananmen Square massacre in China in 1989. However, Tiananmen Square is the wrong comparison, since that occurred in China's generational Unraveling era, while Iran today is in a generational Awakening era. The correct historical analogy for Iran is to America's 1967 Summer of Love, and the 1968 riots and demonstrations throughout the year, including the famous demonstrations in Chicago at the Democratic Party convention. Those protests continued off and on for years, only climaxing in 1974 with the resignation of President Richard Nixon. Every society and country goes through this experience, starting around 20-25 years after the end of the previous crisis wars. The war survivors wil have imposed austere institutions and rules supposedly to prevent a new crisis war from occurring, and this is the point when the first post-war generation comes of age, and rebels against the austerity of their parents. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e090623 ""A generational explanation of Iran's political crisis.""#>) Expect the anti-government protests to continue for years until they reach a climax -- probably some kind of "velvet revolution" replacing the hardline government. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=654 "15-Feb-11 News -- Tens of thousands in Iran demonstrate against government and face violence"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110214 14-Feb-11 News -- Bangladesh stock market continues free fall, while Cairo's remains closed =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110214.head 14-Feb-11 News -- Bangladesh stock market continues free fall, while Cairo's remains closed =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110214.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110214.loc ww2010.weblog.log1102 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110214.date 14-Feb-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110214.txt1 Reader question about the Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110214.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 e110214a "IBM Watson supercomputer will be on Jeopardy! on M-W, Feb 14-16" Be sure to watch Jeopardy! on television this week. On Monday-Wednesday, February 14-16, when one of the contestants will be the IBM Watson supercomputer. It should be a lot of fun. See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e101227 ""27-Dec-10 News -- IBM vs Jeopardy! brings robotic warfare and the Singularity closer""#> for more information. =inc ww2010.h4 e110214b "Bangladesh stock market continues free fall, while Cairo's remains closed" For the third time, Egyptian officials have postponed the reopening of the Cairo stock exchange. It was closed on January 27 after having fallen 20% in a few days. It's now scheduled to reopen on Wednesday. <#inc ww2010.pic g110213.gif center "" "Cairo / Dhaka stock markets"#> The Dhaka stock exchange was in a huge bubble last year, but now is in a full scale stock market crash. It has fallen over 30% in the last few weeks, including an additional 7.27% dive on Sunday, Feb 13. I'd like to quote some excerpts from the <#stdurl http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCATRE71C0RN20110213 "Reuters"#> article describing Sunday's dive:
"DHAKA (Reuters) - Hundreds of Bangladeshi small investors, angry at a new plunge in share prices, set fire to tires and pelted police with bricks on Sunday outside the stock exchange and demanded the resignation of the finance minister. Police with batons dispersed the protesters in pitched battles that snarled traffic for hours. The country's main Dhaka Stock Exchange General Index dived by more than 474.77 points or 7.27 percent to 6052.41 on Sunday, the steepest one-day fall since January 20. "Who is to blame for the continuing fall of share prices? Why haven't they been found and punished?" shouted Shafiqur Rahman, a small investor. Demonstrators called for the resignation of Finance Minister Abul Maal Abdul Muhith. "He assured us that the market will see an uptrend this week," said investor Rakibul Haq. "It makes me so frustrated and angry that this has not happened." Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina last week asked the relevant authorities to take immediate steps to stabilize markets, with about 3.3 million people, mostly small-time investors new to stock trading, relying on it to supplement meager incomes. Share prices nearly doubled in 2010, encouraging new investors into the market. ... Hasina and her rival Begum Khaleda Zia, a former prime minister and contender in parliamentary elections due by the end of 2013, accuse each other of prompting the price declines. "They (Khaleda and her allies) are fuelling the unrest in the stock market, trying to cause greater anarchy and make gains out of it," Hasina told parliament last week. Khaleda said at the weekend that the slide in the bourses was further proof that the government was incapable of managing anything."What I think is absolutely incredible about this story is that nobody seems to have the vaguest idea what's going on, even though it's completely obvious. Stock prices doubled last year, so of course it was a bubble, and of course it's in a full-fledged crash, and yet none of these people, including the supposed experts at Reuters, seem to grasp that simple concept. They keep talking ridiculous nonsense about politicians doing this or that, as if politicians could ever prevent a stock market crash. The same insane mood is prevalent on Wall Street today. Those who follow my <#hreftext ww2010.i.djia "Dow Jones historical page"#> are aware that the DJIA is just shy of 200% of the long-term trend value, meaning that, for the first time since 2008, stocks are overpriced by a factor of 2. Furthermore, stocks have been overpriced since 1995, so by the Law of Mean Reversion, stock prices are going to fall to Dow 3000 or below, and stay there for many years. People on Wall Street are as oblivious to all this, just like officials in Dhaka. Here's a graph of the S&P 500 price/earnings index from 1871 to 2010: <#inc ww2010.pic dppr1-100801.gif center "" "S&P 500 Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E1) 1871 to August 2010"#> Anyone who can't see a stock market bubble since 1995 is blind. By the Law of Mean Reversion, P/E ratios (also called "valuations") will fall to lower than the 5-6 range to which they've fallen three times in the last century, most recently in 1982. Perhaps the thing that shocks and infuriates me the most is to see managers from investment firms go on to CNBC or Bloomberg TV and simply lie about valuations. I won't name names here, but I have in the past, (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e101005 "here"#> and <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e100824 "here"#>). And I'm 99% certain that these people, or their PR departments, have seen these reports, but I've never heard from anyone to explain why I'm wrong, and ask me to post a correction. They undoubtedly earn 7-digit salaries. Are they crooks or just incompetent? I report, you decide. During the 2005 to early 2007 period, I was writing about a credit bubble, a real estate bubble, and a stock market bubble, and about lying and fraud that was going on. I was called a psychopath, but today the credit and real estate bubbles are finally acknowledged, as is the massive generational fraud. The stock market also took a dive, but now it's going way up into bubble territory again, and the people on Wall Street are the same kinds of dim-witted crooks that are selling stocks to gullible investors in Dhaka. When I was growing up in the 1950s, my parents and teachers would tell me how "experts" in the 1930s kept predicting that the stock market would go up again. I didn't understand then, but I certainly understand now. The criminal activity going on in Washington and on Wall Street was the same in the 1930s decade as it has been in the 2000s decade, and the results will be just as devastating, if not more so. =inc ww2010.h4 e110214c "Reader questions about the Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood" I've received a number of questions about Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood. <#inc ww2010.pic MuslimBrotherhood.jpg right "" "Muslim Brotherhood logo"#> Here's one that arrived today:
"I subscribe to your RSS feed and happen to find your analysis interesting. However, I am curious how you can so confidently apply your methodology to vastly different cultures and peoples? I live in Israel, and I happen to find your analysis of Egypt comforting, but my understanding of Arab and Muslim culture leads me to different conclusions. ... Anyway, we'll see. Egypt is a good case. If you're right, you will prove MANY people wrong who think that the Arab idea of democracy is to vote one time for an Islamic state. So far, that has been the case every time a predominantly Muslim state has had a free election."That's an interesting way of looking at it, although perhaps Iraq can be considered an exception these days. Also, non-Arab Muslim states such as Turkey, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Indonesia appear to be exceptions, at least so far. However, it's not entirely clear that Egypt is headed for a democracy. The army has just dissolved the parliament, suspended the constitution, and promised elections in six months, though there's no way to predict whether the elections will happen. And a massacre scenario is still a possibility. What I've said is that there are very significant generational reasons why there won't be an Islamic state like Iran, and that it's very unlikely that Egypt will abrogate its peace treaty with Israel. News events in the last few days have supported those predictions so far. I need to write something that's going to generate hate mail, but it's a point I need to make, so I ask those of you who insist on writing to me to at least limit yourselves to just 1-2 epithets per person. Sunday is the 66th anniversary of the Allied bombing of Dresden, according to the <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5ie9_dDke8ATJXXbV2cijCt-7wIig?docId=CNG.e6210a294125e6051fab15d1b9c3fb5a.b41 "AFP,"#> and some people consider that to be an act of genocide. Also, a web site reader has called my attention to the 1946 Zionist <#stdurl http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_David_Hotel_bombing "bombing"#> of the King David Hotel, which some people claim is an act of terrorism. So the point I need to make is that, while I have absolutely no love for the Muslim Brotherhood, they have renounced their past violence like others have. However, that's not enough. What's most important is the generational point: With the vast majority of the population of Egypt under age 30, most Egyptians, including Egyptians that support the Brotherhood, have never known a violent Brotherhood. It's a basic principle of Generational Dynamics that even in a dictatorship, major policies are determined by masses of people, entire generations of people, and not by politicians. The generational trends in Egypt are clearly away from an Islamic state. Even if the Brotherhood gained power, and some of the old geezers in the top level of the Brotherhood wanted to relive their glory days of fighting the Jews, the vast majority of Brotherhood supporters would oppose terrorism or abrogating the treaty. Finally, the other reasons I've mentioned before are that there's no jihadist constituency in Egypt, there's no ethnic division that would affect the government, there's no fault line between the monarchy and the clergy, as there is in Iran and Saudi Arabia, and there's no popular charismatic leader like Iran's Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. These are very powerful generational reasons for the conclusions I've reached, as I've been describing in this series of reports. Quite honestly, my expectation increasingly is that questions like parliamentary elections in Egypt will be determined by events outside of Egypt, because of the increasing instability of the entire region, exacerbated by surging global food prices. I've written in the last couple of days about the instability of Saudi Arabia and about Egyptian police clashes with Bedouins in northern Sinai. In addition, the news today is that there are Sunni-Shia clashes in Bahrain, and that the entire Palestinian cabinet plans to resign on Monday. As I've written many times, the Mideast is headed for a new war, refighting the 1948 war between Arabs and Jews. This will be one component of the "Clash of Civilizations" world war, pitting the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni nations against the "allies" of US, India, Russia and Iran, Israel, among others. The current instability in the Mideast is very worrisome in view of that prediction. The REALLY INTERESTING question, which I haven't yet attempted to address, is the following: When forced to choose one side or the other, will the Egyptians side with the "axis" or the "allies"? On the one hand, Egypt fought against the Israelis in three wars, making it more likely that they will again. On the other hand, the generational reasons described above make it more likely that Egypt will side with Israel. In fact, I've seen little mutual xenophobia between Israelis and Egyptians, while I've seen lots of mutual xenophobia between Israelis and Palestinians. That gives a clue as to how things will line up. On balance, I'm somewhat surprised to find myself leaning towards the second scenario. The generational trends are just too powerful. We'll see. =inc ww2010.h4 e110214d "Additional links" =// Iran's opposition leaders call for nationwide marches on Monday Opposition leaders in Iran have called for nationwide marches against the government on Monday, in solidarity with the protests in Egypt and Tunisia. Iran's government has promised brutal crackdowns on demonstrators. <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/02/2011212162526150718.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =// .h4 Cairo's cats choke on teargas during demonstrations Cairo's cats choke on teargas during demonstrations. <#stdurl http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2048792,00.html?xid=newsletter-daily "Time"#> =// .h4 Mieast countries ramp up their use of Facebook In the wake of the Egypt demonstrations, governments of Syria, Sudan, and other Mideast countries have ramped up their own use of social media sites like Facebook. <#stdurl http://www.fiercegovernmentit.com/story/state-department-middle-eastern-governments-ramp-social-media-efforts-wake-/2011-02-09?utm_medium=nl&utm_source=internal "Fierce Government IT"#> =// .h4 The cyberweapon that could take down the internet The cyberweapon that could take down the internet. <#stdurl http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20113-the-cyberweapon-that-could-take-down-the-internet.html "New Scientist"#> =// .h4 For Valentine's Day: Geekiest marriage proposals of all time For Valentine's Day: Geekiest marriage proposals of all time. <#stdurl http://www.arnnet.com.au/article/376176/just_valentine_day_geekiest_marriage_proposals_all_time/ "Network World"#> =// .h4 10 Thrifty Ways To Deliver Big On Valentine's Day 10 Thrifty Ways To Deliver Big On Valentine's Day. <#stdurl http://consumerist.com/2011/02/how-to-not-get-screwed-on-valentines-day.html "Consumerist"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=653 "14-Feb-11 News -- Bangladesh stock market continues free fall, while Cairo's remains closed"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110213 13-Feb-11 News -- Lead Palestinian negotiator Saed Erekat resigns over the 'Palestine Papers' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110213.head 13-Feb-11 News -- Lead Palestinian negotiator Saed Erekat resigns over the 'Palestine Papers' =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110213.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110213.loc ww2010.weblog.log1102 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110213.date 13-Feb-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110213.txt1 'Contagion' riots spread to Algeria and Yemen =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110213.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Lead Palestinian negotiator Saed Erekat resigns over the 'Palestine Papers'" Al-Jazeera scored a big victory on Saturday in its bitter conflict with the Palestinian Authority, when the chief Palestinian negotiator Saed Erekat was forced to resign because of the "Palestine Papers." Ten years' worth of previously secret documents, 1600 in all, on the Mideast peace process from the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Fatah were leaked to Al-Jazeera, who released them to the public during the week of January 23. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110127 ""27-Jan-11 News -- 'Palestine Papers' reveal major splits between Arab and Palestinian factions.""#>) I watched quite a bit of al-Jazeera's news coverage of the release. As I wrote at the time, I wasn't surprised by al-Jazeera'a open hostility to Israel and America, nor was I surprised by their release of papers themselves, which any news organization would have done if given the opportunity. What DID surprise me was the unwavering hostility by all commentators to the Palestinian Authority (PA), and to its president Mahmoud Abbas, as well as to Erekat, with not a single negative word about Hamas. It was perfectly clear that al-Jazeera was acting as the public relations arm of Hamas. Erekat resigned on Saturday, after an investigation showed that the leaked documents had come from someone in Erekat's own office, according to <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/02/2011212135152355248.html "al-Jazeera."#> A senior Hamas official welcomed the resignation, saying that Erekat's negotiations were not "in the national interest." He added that, "There is clearly a feeling here on the ground that the peace process has broken down, that there is no more point in negotiating unless the Israelis are willing to bring more to the table." =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Palestinian election announced for September" The Palestinian leadership in the West Bank announced plans to hold elections by September, according to <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jlNVedQZfU1Y6iuRI0EiYMsc2ZfQ?docId=CNG.34b0a7cfb441605b61894f84b5a9eda2.b71 "AFP."#> The elections would replace Mahmoud Abbas as president, and would also elect a new parliament. Hamas has rejected the announcement, and said that they will not participate in the election. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "'Contagion' riots spread to Algeria and Yemen" Thousands of demonstraters filled the streets of Algiers, the capital city of Algeria, on Saturday, inspired by the events in Egypt. But the protests were blocked by riot police, and ended after about three hours, according to the <#stdurl http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=415727&version=1&template_id=37&parent_id=17 "Gulf Times."#> Algeria's last crisis war was the extremely bloody civil war for Algeria's independence, that climaxed in 1962, and so Algeria is in a generational Unraveling era. It's therefore not possible for a new civil war to break out at this time. In Sanaa, the capital city of Yemen, clashes erupted between hundreds of pro-government and anti-government demonstrators, who staged rival rallies. Thousands of anti-government demonstrators marched in other parts of the city. Here's a brief action-packed Euronews <#stdurl http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xfs4AQDjEqk "video"#> of the clashes in Sanaa: =//
"In the name of God the merciful, the compassionate, citizens, during these very difficult circumstances Egypt is going through, President Hosni Mubarak has decided to step down from the office of president of the republic and has charged the high council of the armed forces to administer the affairs of the country. May God help everybody."The resignation bypasses the parliament and constitutional processes and puts the country in the control of the "high council of the armed forces." Whether this military committee can govern the country, especially when the young protesters discover that the disappearance of Mubarak will not make any real difference in their lives, remains to be seen. News organizations around the world have been laser-focused on Cairo's Tahrir (Freedom) Square, squealing with delight in practically every sentence. Meanwhile, many important developments have been occurring in other countries. In yesterday's <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110211 "report,"#> I described how the events in Egypt could destabilize Saudi Arabia. There have been conflicting reports over the last couple of days over whether the 87 year old Saudi King Abdullah has died. What is known is that Abdullah was furious about President Obama's handling of the Egypt situation. Some sources, like the <#stdurl http://www.islamtimes.org/vdcc1sqp.2bq048y-a2.html "Islam Times,"#> are claiming that Abdullah was so infuriated that he suffered a sudden heart attack and died. But nothing has been confirmed. <#inc ww2010.pic g110211.jpg right "" "Sinai (WSJ)"#> Another area of increasing instability is the North Sinai region of Egypt that borders both Gaza and Israel. The unrest in Egypt has forced the Egyptian police to withdraw from most of the region. Last weekend, a natural gas pipeline that supplies Egyptian gas to Israel, Jordan and Syria was bombed. The perpetrators have not been identified, but both Hamas and Bedouins are suspected. There are hundreds of thousands of people from the nomadic Bedouin ethnic group living in the northern Sinai region of Egypt, where they have long felt mistreated by Egyptian authorities, complaining about heavy-handed treatment by the police, according to <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704570104576124363132383924.html "WSJ"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>. Because of the unrest, police have lost control of this region, and the Bedouins are now preparing to take control themselves, with the help of operatives from Hamas. There have already been firefights between the Bedouins and Egyptian security forces. For Israel, these events open up an whole new southern front for Israel. In 30 years of peace along this border, Israel has completely dismantled its defensive apparatus, according to the <#stdurl http://debka.com/ "Debka"#> subscriber-only newsletter, forwarded to me by a subscriber:
"The Egyptian army and its security forces lost control of the Sinai Peninsula, excepting only the Sharm el Sheikh pocket. Much of the territory was seized by Hamas gangs, the Army of Islam which takes orders from Al Qaeda in Iraq, and Bedouin militias. The last group established a form of local government calling itself 'The Bedouin Force for Socialist Reform.'"The report adds that Israel's Defense Forces (IDF) are stretched too thin to adequately defend this border, while also defending against threatened attacks by Hamas, Hizbollah, Syria and Iran. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Updating the Conflict Risk Graphic for the Mideast" The examples of instability that we've discussed in Saudi Arabia and Sinai are not unique. The 'contagion' from Egypt is also spreading to Bahrain, Gaza, the West Bank and Jordan, resulting in renewed instability in the entire region. Because of this regional instability, I'm raising the Conflict Risk Level for this region from 2 (medium risk) to 3 (high risk). On January 1, the conflict risk graphic was changed to the following: <#inc ww2010.pic ConflictRisk-110101.gif center "" "Conflict Risk Graphic, January 1, 2011"#> I designed this graphic in 2004 as a way of depicting my view of the chances of a crisis within 6-12 months in each of six regions, as well as in the area of global finance and disease. The six regions were chosen because a regional conflict in any of those areas had a high probability of spiraling into a world war. On January 1, there were only two areas with high risk of major crisis:
"Oxen are so important in North Korea’s agricultural industry that the government owns them all. During the rice planting season you can see more oxen than tractors in the country. It is no doubt that the outbreak will have a negative impact on North Korea's food shortages. It is likely to worsen the nutritional imbalance of North Koreans, whose consumption of animal protein already falls far below the recommended levels."North Korea has reported the outbreak to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), according to the <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/686f09e8-35c9-11e0-b67c-00144feabdc0.html "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>. According to the article,
"South Korean media reported that the UN agency will dispatch a team next week to evaluate the situation and help the North contain the disease. It was unclear whether the disease had spread from the South to the North. South Korea has been battling a severe outbreak of the disease since November, described as Asia’s worst in half a century by Juan Lubroth, chief veterinary officer of the FAO. It has culled 3 [million] animals, prompting a UN warning that all Asian nations should tighten import controls and begin vaccinations to prevent the disease from spreading to the whole continent."As we <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110210 "reported"#> yesterday, for the last two months, North Korea has been frantically begging for food around the world, and this comes at a time when their best friend forever China is having major food problems because of a severe drought. According to an official quoted by the <#stdurl http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10705728 "New Zealand Herald,"#> "This year, all 40 North Korean embassies have been ordered by Pyongyang to ask Governments for food. They have each been given a quota." The events in Egypt and Tunisia have shown everyone how quickly things can change. With North Korea deep into a generational Crisis era, and with much of the population facing malnutrition and starvation, the Korean peninsula remains, along with the Mideast, the most dangerous place in the world today. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=651 "12-Feb-11 News -- As Egypt's president Mubarak resigns, tension grows in the Sinai"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110211 11-Feb-11 News -- Egypt 'contagion' threatens stability of Saudi Arabia =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110211.head 11-Feb-11 News -- Egypt 'contagion' threatens stability of Saudi Arabia =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110211.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110211.loc ww2010.weblog.log1102 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110211.date 11-Feb-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110211.txt1 Iran's opposition leader under house arrest =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110211.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Egypt 'contagion' threatens stability of Saudi Arabia" Egypt is in chaos today, after Egyptian officials first signaled president Hosni Mubarak's intention to "meet all the protesters' demands" (i.e., step down), but then did not step down. In his speech, he said he'd stay on until the September elections, but would transfer (unspecified) powers to the vice president, Omar Suleiman. It was only clarified several hours later by the Egyptian ambassador to the U.S., that Mubarak had transferred all presidential powers to Suleiman. The clarification only seemed to increase the fury of the protesters, and there is a real possibility of violence on Friday after midday prayers, when millions of worshippers will pour out into the streets. Many commentators have expressed the concern that Egypt is going to undergo a revolution similar to Iran's 1979 Great Islamic Revolution. I've written in the past (see <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110204 ""4-Feb-11 News -- The lull before the storm in Egypt as 'Friday of Departure' approaches""#>) that this appears to be impossible, because Egypt is lacking two indispensable things that were present in 1979 Iran: A historic fault line between monarchy and clerics, and a charismatic clerical leader like Iran's Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. In particular, Egypt lacks any strong jihadist presence, and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has long ago renounced violence. However, while those indispensables are not present in Egypt, they ARE present in Saudi Arabia, along with its neighbor, Yemen. Saudi Arabia has had numerous civil wars, including the crisis civil war that ended with the Ibn Saud conquest in 1925, leaving the al-Saud dynasty in control of Arabia. <#inc ww2010.pic g110210.jpg right "" "Naser Al-Wahishi (Yemen Times)"#> Today, those ethnic divisions have morphed into a clear fault line between the Saudi monarchy, which wants to continue the country's modernization program, and the hardline Wahhabi community, currently led by Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which is headquartered in Yemen. And AQAP has a charismatic leader, Naser Al-Wahishi, who may have been injured in December, but is still very much alive, according to the <#stdurl http://www.yementimes.com/defaultdet.aspx?SUB_ID=35365 "Yemen Times."#> Add to that, the fact that Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah is 87 years old, unemployment is high and food prices are high, and you have the right mix for a possible Sunni Islamic Revolution in Saudi Arabia. That's why this week's revelations of concerns about Saudi Arabia's instability are significant. According to the <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=207647 "Jerusalem Post,"#> King Abdullah has spoken with President Obama, and told him not to humiliate Egyptian president Mubarak. Abdullah also promised that if the U.S. cuts financial aid to Egypt, then the Saudis will provide the same aid. Other sources indicate that the disagreement between the Abdullah and Obama is more serious. One Saudi analyst told the <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/95d0ee5c-3541-11e0-aa6c-00144feabdc0.html "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> that Abdullah was alarmed that the US, a long-time supporter of Mubarak, would throw him under the bus so quickly. The fear is that the US would do the same to Abdullah just as quickly. According to <#stdurl http://www.debka.com/article/20650/ "Debka,"#> drawing on intelligence sources in London, Thursday's conversation between Abdullah and Obama was "the most acerbic the US president has ever had with an Arab ruler." Debka, which is a generally reliable news source, but has occasionally predicted imminent wars that never occurred, says that the rift places in jeopardy the entire American policy in the Mideast. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these developments would support the trend that I've discussed many times. (See, for example, <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e080405 ""China 'betrays' Iran, as internal problems in both countries mount""#> from 2008.) The world is headed for a "Clash of Civilizations" world war, pitting China, Pakistan, and Sunni Muslim nations against the US, India, Russia and of course Israel. Iran, which has a hardline anti-American government, but a large pro-American population, will side with the West when forced to choose one side or the other. A Great Sunni Islamic Revolution on the Arabian Peninsula, led by jihadist Naser Al-Wahishi, is one possible outcome that would support this trend, and lead to certain regional war in the Mideast. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Iran's opposition leader under house arrest An Iranian opposition leader, Mehdi Karroubi, was placed under house arrest on Thursday, because he called for a rally in support of the uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia. <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iranian-opposition-leader-under-house-arrest-2210951.html "AP"#> =// .h4 France's president Sarkozy says that multiculturalism is a failure France's president Nicolas Sarkozy declared that multiculturalism has failed, joining with British prime minister David Cameron's speech last week. (<#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110206 ""6-Feb-11 News -- UK Prime Minister David Cameron attacks 'Multiculturalism' in Britain""#>.) He said, "We have been too concerned about the identity of the person who was arriving and not enough about the identity of the country that was receiving him." <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/8317497/Nicolas-Sarkozy-declares-multiculturalism-had-failed.html "Telegraph"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=650 "11-Feb-11 News -- Egypt 'contagion' threatens stability of Saudi Arabia"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110210 10-Feb-11 News -- From Korea to Egypt, high food prices are driving policies =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110210.head 10-Feb-11 News -- From Korea to Egypt, high food prices are driving policies =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110210.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110210.loc ww2010.weblog.log1102 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110210.date 10-Feb-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110210.txt1 27% of US homes are 'under water,' up sharply from previous quarter =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110210.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "From Korea to Egypt, high food prices are driving policies" For the last two months, North Korea has been frantically begging for food around the world, according to South Korea's <#stdurl http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2932022 "JoongAng Daily."#> The request has extended to dozens of countries, including China, the U.S., EU, and countries in southeast Asia. The North Koreans' desperate need for food is apparently responsible for initiating the silly charade that went on the last few days. The North Koreans have a history of wanting to "talk" only when they can use the talks to extort aid, especially food aid. Still, the Norks have been so insistent for the last few weeks, that finally the South agreed to "talk." For the last few days, we've had bubbly stories on the BBC and elsewhere about how things have finally turned around, and a new era of sunshine was opening on the Korean Peninsula. The talks collapsed in two days, when the Norks stormed out of the meeting, after the South wanted to discuss last year's sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan, and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, killing about 50 South Koreans, according to the <#stdurl http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2011/02/113_81091.html "Korea Times."#> The South's demands for an apology reflect a significant hardening of policy since previous talks. Nor are the North Koreans likely to get much food aid from China, which is deep into its own problems, according to <#stdurl http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/video/2011-02/07/c_13721543.htm "Xinhua."#> China is suffering the worst drought in 60 years, crippling the country's major agricultural regions, leaving many of them parched. <#inc ww2010.pic g110209.jpg right "" "Striking museum workers in Cairo on Wednesday (AP)"#> China is the world's largest wheat producer, according to the <#stdurl http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/09/business/global/09food.html?ref=world "NY Times,"#> and if they're forced to import large amounts of wheat, it could send shock waves through the world's grain markets. "They can buy whatever they need to buy, and they can outbid anyone," according to one expert, which means that they can bid prices up as high as they want. Wheat prices are also playing a role in the Egyptian revolution, as wildcat strikes are spreading around the country, and are threatening closure of the Suez Canal. Closure of the canal would be a crisis for Europe, according to <#stdurl http://www.euractiv.com/en/energy/eu-faces-prospect-black-swan-shutdown-suez-canal-news-501997 "EurActive,"#> because Europe depends on oil supplies shipped through the canal. It would also be a crisis for Egypt, not only because of the loss of canal revenue, but also because Egypt depends on wheat imports from other countries. Suez Canal workers have, in fact, gone on strike, according to <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-02-08/suez-canal-still-operating-as-service-workers-strike.html "Bloomberg,"#> but so far the canal is operating normally. <#inc ww2010.pic g110204.jpg center "" "FAO Food Price Index - 1991 - January 2011"#> Food prices are only going to go higher. Food prices were already at historic highs in December, and then they rose an additional 3.4% in January, according to the <#stdurl http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/50519/icode/ "U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization."#> And now, on Wednesday, the US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA) announced that supplies of corn and wheat this year will be well below previous forecasts, according to <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/09/usa-crops-idUSL3E7D901920110209 "Reuters,"#> thanks to increased demand for cattle feed and ethanol production. David Dawe of the FAO explained what has happened in an interview on Bloomberg TV (my transcription):
"Food prices got really low of around 2000. That is about when they hit their trough, and a lot of that was due to investment in technology through agricultural research. [For example,] governments building roads to move extra production to markets. But certainly a big factor was much higher yields for rice. that was the culmination of a lot of research. The research funding has fallen off in recent years, especially for some of the cereals and that gradually lead to high prices. We saw prices go from 2000 to about 2007, more or less steadily."Professor Art Barnaby of Kansas State University provided some additional reasons:
"What's driving the [prices] are the corn numbers. When you look at the supply demand numbers, we are now putting two Iowa corn crops in the gas tanks. And if you look at the history going back to 2002, the ethanol number is growing every year, and that's what's really driven the whole market. Now the question becomes, if you change government policy, and reduce some of the tax incentives that are built into this ethanol climate, what will that do to the demand for ethanol in this corn complex. And I'm sure that it will back off the demand. I'm not sure we're going to back to where we were in 2002, but on the other hand we've discovered we can produce a lot more corn. It's those corn numbers though, that are dragging acres out of wheat and soybeans, and maintaining those prices. Even cotton now has some really strong prices. Again corn is out there bidding more acres into production."And so, since the year 2000, research funding on food production has been cut off, and huge amounts of existing food production have been diverted to ethanol. If anybody ever had difficulty understanding the significance and importance of generational factors in the flow of history, then surely this example will resolve those difficulties. It is truly mind-boggling that, since the year 2000, food production has been taken for granted by world officials, It's like Mad Magazine's Alfred E Neuman saying, "What, me worry?" The survivors of World War II (GI and Silent generations) saw how destructive famines can be, and they set up the Green Revolution and the FAO to make sure that everyone would be fed. But no sooner did the Silents retire in the 1990s, then officials abandoned food research and diverted the remaining food production. It's truly amazing. I like to compare high food prices to high blood pressure in an individual -- a kind of silent killer, until it's no longer silent. A great famine in 1788 led to the French Revolution. The Tunisia and Egypt revolutions began as food riots. When a man can't feed himself and his family, he will not sit quietly. From Korea to Egypt, and around the rest of the world, the greatest threat to world stability today is the continual surge in food prices. Unless food prices fall this year, which nobody is predicting as far as I know, the world could be a different place by the end of the year. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 27% of US homes are 'under water,' up sharply from previous quarter 27% of US homes are "under water," with home values less than the amount due on their mortgages, as of the fourth quarter. This is a substantial increase over the previous quarter, when the figure was 23.2%. The reason for the substantial increase in the number of homes underwater is because home values fell 2.6% during the fourth quarter. Home values declined all year, but declines have accelerated during the last half of 2010, once the government's home buyer tax credit ended in mid-year. The number of homes sold at a loss also accelerated during the last half of the year. These trends are expected to continue in 2011. <#stdurl http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=159&item=221 "Zillow.com"#> =// .h4 India preparing to fight a war on 'two and one half fronts' India's army is undertaking its first strategic transformation in more than two decades. The goal is to provide enough capacity to fight a war on "two and one half fronts" -- meaning simultaneous wars with Pakistan and China, at the same time as managing an internal counter-insurgency effort. The Diplomat =// .h4 Wikileaks reveal how hostile neighbors are to Iran Wikileaks revelations make awkward reading for Iran because they reveal how hostile the neighboring countries are to Iran, and how determined they are to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. The Diplomat =// .h4 Iran's opposition plans demonstrations next week Iran's Awakening era demonstrations are far from over. As <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110205 "we reported"#> recently, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, has been bragging that the Tunisia Revolution and Egypt uprising are the result of Iran's 1979 Great Islamic Revolution. Opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi is taking advantage of that declaration to plan a demonstration in Tehran next week, in solidarity with the protest movements in Egypt and Tunisia. <#stdurl http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/09/world/middleeast/09iran.html?_r=1&ref=world "NY Times"#> =// .h4 Mosque fight in UK reveals growing xenophobic policies David Cameron's recent speech attacking multiculturalism reflects growing xenophobic policies and behaviors in Eurpoe. In east London, local campaigners are arguing that an Islamic group should be barred from getting an extension of the land-use permit for their mosque because, the campaigners allege, the group doesn't let women worship, and because its teachings have inspired terrorists, and it preaches isolation from the wider community. <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703716904576134400934623230.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =// .h4 Debka: US warships in Suez Canal, anticipating a military coup According to Debka, US naval, marine and air forces are arriving in the Suez Canal's Great Bitter Lake, to protect the Suez Canal in case of a military coup in Egypt. <#stdurl http://debka.com/article/20646/ "Debka"#> =// .h4 Russian region bans Valentine's day The Belgorod region of Russia is banning Valentine's day festivities and promtions, because it promotes promiscuity rather than love. According to a government spokesman, "It’s designed to swell the emotions, and you know what kind of teenage liaisons happen then." <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-08/russian-region-bans-valentine-s-day-for-promoting-promiscuity.html "Bloomberg"#> =// .h4 Russia's Medvedev scolds Japan over Kuril islands Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has scolded Japan for unrealistic claims to the South Kuril islands, which are claimed by both Russia and Japan. At the same time, Medvedev ordered the deployment of sufficient weaponry to secure the islands. <#stdurl http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-02/09/c_13724842.htm "Xinhua"#> =// .h4 Rebel attacks in Kabardino-Balkaria skyrocket In Russia's Kabardino-Balkaria province, in the North Caucasus, militant activity has increased four to five times over the past year. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37460&tx_ttnews[backPid]=512 "Jamestown"#> =// .h4 Your guide to the seven types of malicious hackers For techies: Your guide to the seven types of malicious hackers <#stdurl http://infoworld.com/d/security-central/your-guide-the-seven-types-malicious-hackers-636 "InfoWorld"#> =// .h4 Study: people who drink diet soda have higher risk of stroke Study suggests that people who drink diet soda have higher risk of stroke. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g9aBamOuas5Dd0HKCSRKT_31Q_aQ?docId=7f65fea35367463a8961ff3dbdab5247 "AP"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=649 "10-Feb-11 News -- From Korea to Egypt, high food prices are driving policies"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110209 9-Feb-11 News -- Chechnya terrorist Doku Umarov takes credit for Moscow airport bombing =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110209.head 9-Feb-11 News -- Chechnya terrorist Doku Umarov takes credit for Moscow airport bombing =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110209.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110209.loc ww2010.weblog.log1102 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110209.date 9-Feb-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110209.txt1 Putin's popularity is threatened by Umarov and by Egypt's revolution =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110209.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Chechnya terrorist Doku Umarov takes credit for Moscow airport bombing" Doku Umarov, a terrorist from Chechnya, claimed responsibility the Moscow airport bombing on January 24. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110125 ""25-Jan-11 News -- Suicide bomber kills 35 people in Moscow airport.""#>) According to the <#stdurl http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/umarov-claims-domodedovo-bombing/430648.html "Moscow Times,"#> the claim appears in a <#stdurl http://youtube.com/watch?v=M7WWdux5o8g "Russian language video"#> posted on Caucasus rebel web sites, though some investigators cast doubt on the claim. Umarov is a veteran of the Chechen wars fought in the 1990s and early 2000s by rebels wishing to separate Chechnya from Russia, and make it a separate state. Umarov has been on Russia's most wanted criminal list for various terrorist attacks and assassinations. But in the video, Umarov referred to foreign occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan, indicating that he's "promoting" himself from being a nationalist rebel to being a jihadist rebel. Tuesday's video was the second Umarov video in a week. The <#stdurl http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/doku-umarov-vows-year-of-tears/430475.html "Moscow Times"#> reports that Umarov posted a video on Friday, in which he said, "We will make this the year of blood and tears. I won't say there are hundreds of us, but some five to six dozen can be found, and special operations will be carried out monthly and weekly." =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Putin's popularity threatened by terrorism and by Egypt's revolution" Prime Minister Vladimir Putin rose to popularity by leading Russia in the second war against Chechnya separatist rebels. Putin has repeatedly promised to end terrorism from the mostly Muslim North Caucasus (Russia's southern provinces) once and for all. The January 24 airport explosion shows that attacks on Moscow are going to continue, whether by Umarov or others, according to <#stdurl http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/02/08/idINIndia-54744820110208 "Reuters,"#> and these will make Putin look bad. But that's not Putin's only problem. Ironically, the revolution in Cairo Egypt's Tahrir (Freedom) Square is also bad news for Putin, according to <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37470&tx_ttnews[backPid]=27&cHash=6eac83fcf8 "Jamestown."#> The revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt are being freely and widely reported in Russia (unlike China), and it's becoming clear to many Russians that the same conditions of governmental corruption and autocracy that caused the revolutions in the Mideast are also prevalent in Russia. In the past, Putin has responded to nascent rebellions by killing or corrupting their leaders. But the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt are an uprising of the lower-middle class population, with no leader. The Kremlin would be powerless to stop a similar revolution, if it occurred in Moscow, according to the article. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=648 "9-Feb-11 News -- Chechnya terrorist Doku Umarov takes credit for Moscow airport bombing"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110208 8-Feb-11 News -- Bangladesh riots over stock market crash and food inflation =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110208.head 8-Feb-11 News -- Bangladesh riots over stock market crash and food inflation =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110208.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110208.loc ww2010.weblog.log1102 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110208.date 8-Feb-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110208.txt1 Japan furious over Russian president Medvedev's visit to disputed islands =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110208.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Bangladesh riots over stock market crash and food inflation" <#inc ww2010.pic g110207.gif right "" "Dhaka Stock Exchange - to January 26 and February 7, 2011"#> The headline in the <#stdurl http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news-details.php?nid=173298 "Daily Star (Dhaka)"#> reads: "Stock investors go berserk again." The headline alludes to the previous time when investors went "berserk" -- see <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110121 ""21-Jan-11 News -- Bangladesh stock market crashes 9% in 5 minutes.""#> According to the story:
"A steep fall in share prices sent hundreds of investors out on the street in Motijheel to protest the plunge yesterday, with many taking to vandalism for the second day. They vowed to continue their demonstration until the market bounces back. The General Index (DGEN) of Dhaka Stock Exchange came down to 6,394 points, registering a 324 points or 4.8 percent fall at the end of a four-hour trading session yesterday. With yesterday's fall, the market remained in the red for a third trading session, marking a cumulative drop of 915 points. ... Although the investors started gathering in front of the premier bourse from the opening bell of the trading session, the demonstration began at around 1:30pm after the DGEN plunged over 300 points. The aggrieved investors set fire to paper and wood, burnt an effigy of the finance minister, and chanted slogans demanding resignations of the finance minister, central bank governor, market regulator's chairman and presidents of two bourses. They also smashed up a bus and a pickup van in the area and broke windowpanes of some buildings adjacent to the DSE by throwing brickbats. "My portfolio has been wiped out by 75 percent. I have invested Tk 20 lakh, but now the value is Tk 5 lakh only," said Mizanur Rahman, a shocked investor who was in tears. "I am losing everything. I don't know what to do.” Many others were expressing their feelings the same way, most of whose money was lost to the recent slump in share prices. Stockbrokers said share prices kept declining without any let-up. "Frightened investors started offloading the shares from the opening bell. Sliding confidence of investors prompted huge sell pressure and buyers were inactive in fear of further debacle," a leading stockbroker said in its regular analysis."The stock market bubble is crashing at exactly the same time that global food prices are skyrocketing. Food prices in Bangladesh have increase 11% in just the 5 weeks since the year began, and they were already at historically high levels. The stock exchange riots coincided with a nationwide strike called by the main opposition political party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), according to <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/south/Opposition-Sponsored-Strike-Shuts-Down-Bangladesh-115478579.html "VOA."#> BNP has called for nationwide demonstrations again on Wednesday, according to the <#stdurl http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/latest_news.php?nid=28351 "Daily Star."#> =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Cairo stock exchange remains closed as banks reopen in Egypt" <#inc ww2010.pic g110127.gif right "" "Cairo Stock Exchange - to January 27, 2011"#> The headline in the the Cairo paper <#stdurl http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/5165/Business/Economy/Egypt-pound-hits-year-low,-but-market-stable.aspx "Ahram"#> reads, "Egypt pound hits 6-year low, but market stable." The headline was referring to the Egyptian companies that are listed on the London stock exchange. It certainly wasn't referring to the Cairo stock exchange, because the Cairo stock exchange was closed after it crashed on January 27. It was supposed to reopen two days ago (on Sunday), but the reopening was postponed until next Sunday -- presumably because officials asked around and couldn't find any investors who wanted to buy stocks. Banks reopened on a limited basis on Sunday, but some ran out of cash when long lines of depositors withdrew their savings. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "'Emerging markets' losing their popularity" The "experts" have really changed their views, haven't they. Last year, all the experts were saying that emerging markets were "hot," the best place to invest, because American and European markets weren't growing enough. Quantitative easing money poured into emerging markets, creating the stock market bubbles that are now crashing. Investors are now fleeing emerging markets, according to <#stdurl http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/funds/2011-02-08-emerg08_ST_N.htm "USA Today."#> This means that investors are pulling money out of emerging markets, and putting it -- where? Probably Wall Street stocks, expanding the huge Wall Street bubble even larger. The Wall Street bubble has grown to truly alarming levels again. The same kind of crash that occurred in Dhaka and Cairo will surely be coming to Wall Street. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Japan furious over Medvedev's visit to disputed islands The Japanese are furious that Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev visited one of the four Russian-held Kuril Islands, which Japan claims are Japanese territory. Russia seized the islands at the end of World War II, and the territorial dispute has prevented the two countries from signing a postwar peace treaty. Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan called Medvedev's visit in November an "unforgivable outrage," and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov criticized Kan's outburst as "not diplomatic." <#stdurl http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110208p2g00m0in009000c.html "Mainichi"#> =// .h4 China suffers worst drought in 60 years Crop production in China has fallen sharply, as the worst drought in six decades shows no sign of letting up. <#stdurl http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/video/2011-02/07/c_13721543.htm "Xinhua"#> =// .h4 The fastest growing demographic at US divinity schools are Boomers The fastest growing demographic at US divinity schools are Boomers. <#stdurl http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2043476,00.html?xid=newsletter-daily "Time"#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110207b.jpg right "" "Thai schoolgirl uniforms"#> =// .h4 Thai college girl uniforms are sexiest in the world A poll conducted by a Japanese news web site finds that college girls in Thailand wear the sexiest uniforms in the world. This has resulted in outrage in Thailand, which has the largest organized sex industry in the world. One Thai columnist calls for greater moral teaching to stem the rise of eroticism. "The most practical solution could be to educate and make students appreciate the value of wisdom and good deeds, instead of external beauty, stardom and fame." <#stdurl http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2956&Itemid=392 "Asia Sentinel"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=647 "8-Feb-11 News -- Bangladesh riots over stock market crash and food inflation"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110207 7-Feb-11 News -- Cameron's attack on 'Multiculturalism' advances the theory of suicide bombers =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110207.head 7-Feb-11 News -- Cameron's attack on 'Multiculturalism' advances the theory of suicide bombers =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110207.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110207.loc ww2010.weblog.log1102 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110207.date 7-Feb-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110207.txt1 Why do some cultures celebrate terrorism, and others don't? =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110207.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Cameron's attack on 'Multiculturalism' advances the theory of suicide bombers" Yesterday, I described the speech by British Prime Minister David Cameron attacking 'multiculturalism' as being the most well thought out description of the Islamist terrorism issue that I've seen. I added that I can't recall the last time I was so impressed by a speech by a politician. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110206 ""6-Feb-11 News -- UK Prime Minister David Cameron attacks 'Multiculturalism' in Britain.""#>) Unfortunately, the policies that Cameron recommended could not be implemented at this late date, and even if they could, they would have no effect. However, the following statement by Cameron is particularly insightful: "[S]ome young men find it hard to identify with the traditional Islam practiced at home by their parents, whose customs can seem staid when transplanted to modern Western countries. But these young men also find it hard to identify with Britain too, because we have allowed the weakening of our collective identity." This statement is consistent with research on suicide bombers performed by University of Chicago professor Robert A. Pape, published in his 2004 book, <#stdurl http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1400063175 "Dying to Win : The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism."#> As I described in 2005 in <#hreftext ww2010.i.050718pape ""Robert Pape's 'Dying to Win' sheds light on suicide bombers,""#> the form of suicide practiced by suicide bombers is "altruistic suicide," suicide performed by someone who willingly accepts a voluntary death because society supports and honors the act. A person commits suicide terrorism in order to become a hero within a social organization at odds with the target society. Putting Cameron's remarks together with Pape's conclusions, we see that the London subway bombers were totally disoriented kids, under the influence of al-Qaeda "instructors" in Pakistan and London, who did what they did because they wanted to be a hero to their neighbors and parents. But of course, as it later turned out, they weren't heroes to their parents and neighbors. Their parents were first and second generation immigrants from Pakistan who were as shocked as everyone was, and their neighbors had to ask their kids whether they were planning anything similar. Pape asks the question, "Why do suicide attacks receive mass support in some societies and not others?" This is the wrong question, because it overlooks the fact that societies will support suicide attacks in some generational eras and not others. In fact, Pape acknowledges that there's an important time component from his own data -- after all, he says that there were no suicide terrorists between 1945 and 1980, and his data shows that their incidences have been growing steadily (perhaps exponentially) since then. He says that he can't explain why "the overwhelming majority of societies -- even those experiencing political violence -- exhibit no suicide terrorism but a handful of societies have experienced dozens of attacks each." On the time scale, he writes, "[W]hile the supply of suicidal individuals may vary somewhat over time, psychological expanations cannot account for why over 95 percent of all suicide terrorist attacks occur in organized campaigns that are concentrated in time." An analysis from generational theory answers all of these questions. (I wrote to Pape in 2005 to tell him, but he never responded.) Pape's database of suicide bomber attacks reveals an startling fact about their nationalities: They come from 11 different countries, but that they overwhelmingly come from just two countries: Saudi Arabia and Morocco. What makes this fact startling is that these are precisely the two countries that have gone the longest time since their last generational crisis wars. Saudi Arabia's last crisis war was the Ibn Saud conquest, ending in 1925, and Morocco's was the Rif War, ending in 1927. Musical intermission: Gordon MacRae sings <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/gdgraphics/TheDesertSong-1963-12-TheRiffSong.mp3 "The Riff Song"#> from the play Desert Song. Enjoy! End of intermission. I've developed a "violence profile" that should apply to any society or nation at any time. This has not been rigorously proven -- that will be someone's Ph.D. thesis some day -- but it's consistent with Pape's research, and it's consistent with dozens of examples that I've posted on my web site over the years. (See, for example, my recent discussions of the lack of suicide bombers with Iraqi or Afghan nationalities in <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110106 ""6-Jan-11 News -- Pakistan melts down as US/Nato forces struggle in Afghanistan.""#>)
"But the biggest threat that we face comes from terrorist attacks, some of which are, sadly, carried out by our own citizens. It is important to stress that terrorism is not linked exclusively to any one religion or ethnic group. My country, the United Kingdom , still faces threats from dissident republicans in Northern Ireland . Anarchist attacks have occurred recently in Greece and in Italy , and of course, yourselves in Germany were long scarred by terrorism from the Red Army Faction. Nevertheless, we should acknowledge that this threat comes in Europe overwhelmingly from young men who follow a completely perverse, warped interpretation of Islam, and who are prepared to blow themselves up and kill their fellow citizens. ... We will not defeat terrorism simply by the action we take outside our borders. Europe needs to wake up to what is happening in our own countries. Of course, that means strengthening, as Angela has said, the security aspects of our response, on tracing plots, on stopping them, on counter-surveillance and intelligence gathering. But this is just part of the answer. We have got to get to the root of the problem, and we need to be absolutely clear on where the origins of where these terrorist attacks lie. That is the existence of an ideology, Islamist extremism. We should be equally clear what we mean by this term, and we must distinguish it from Islam. Islam is a religion observed peacefully and devoutly by over a billion people. Islamist extremism is a political ideology supported by a minority. At the furthest end are those who back terrorism to promote their ultimate goal: an entire Islamist realm, governed by an interpretation of Sharia. Move along the spectrum, and you find people who may reject violence, but who accept various parts of the extremist worldview, including real hostility towards Western democracy and liberal values. It is vital that we make this distinction between religion on the one hand, and political ideology on the other. Time and again, people equate the two. They think whether someone is an extremist is dependent on how much they observe their religion. So, they talk about moderate Muslims as if all devout Muslims must be extremist. This is profoundly wrong. Someone can be a devout Muslim and not be an extremist. We need to be clear: Islamist extremism and Islam are not the same thing. This highlights, I think, a significant problem when discussing the terrorist threat that we face. There is so much muddled thinking about this whole issue. On the one hand, those on the hard right ignore this distinction between Islam and Islamist extremism, and just say that Islam and the West are irreconcilable – that there is a clash of civilizations. So, it follows: we should cut ourselves off from this religion, whether that is through forced repatriation, favoured by some fascists, or the banning of new mosques, as is suggested in some parts of Europe . These people fuel Islamophobia, and I completely reject their argument. If they want an example of how Western values and Islam can be entirely compatible, they should look at what’s happened in the past few weeks on the streets of Tunis and Cairo : hundreds of thousands of people demanding the universal right to free elections and democracy. The point is this: the ideology of extremism is the problem; Islam emphatically is not. Picking a fight with the latter will do nothing to help us to confront the former. On the other hand, there are those on the soft left who also ignore this distinction. They lump all Muslims together, compiling a list of grievances, and argue that if only governments addressed these grievances, the terrorism would stop. So, they point to the poverty that so many Muslims live in and say, ‘Get rid of this injustice and the terrorism will end.’ But this ignores the fact that many of those found guilty of terrorist offences in the UK and elsewhere have been graduates and often middle class. They point to grievances about Western foreign policy and say, ‘Stop riding roughshod over Muslim countries and the terrorism will end.’ But there are many people, Muslim and non-Muslim alike, who are angry about Western foreign policy, but who don’t resort to acts of terrorism. They also point to the profusion of unelected leaders across the Middle East and say, ‘Stop propping these people up and you will stop creating the conditions for extremism to flourish.’ But this raises the question: if it’s the lack of democracy that is the problem, why are there so many extremists in free and open societies? Now, I’m not saying that these issues of poverty and grievance about foreign policy are not important. Yes, of course we must tackle them. ... But let us not fool ourselves. These are just contributory factors. Even if we sorted out all of the problems that I have mentioned, there would still be this terrorism. I believe the root lies in the existence of this extremist ideology. I would argue an important reason so many young Muslims are drawn to it comes down to a question of identity."This is probably the most well thought out description of the Islamist terrorism issue that I've seen. I can't recall the last time I was so impressed by a speech by a politician. Cameron then went on to specifically criticize multiculturalism policies in Britain:
"What I am about to say is drawn from the British experience, but I believe there are general lessons for us all. In the UK , some young men find it hard to identify with the traditional Islam practiced at home by their parents, whose customs can seem staid when transplanted to modern Western countries. But these young men also find it hard to identify with Britain too, because we have allowed the weakening of our collective identity. Under the doctrine of state multiculturalism, we have encouraged different cultures to live separate lives, apart from each other and apart from the mainstream. We’ve failed to provide a vision of society to which they feel they want to belong. We’ve even tolerated these segregated communities behaving in ways that run completely counter to our values. So, when a white person holds objectionable views, racist views for instance, we rightly condemn them. But when equally unacceptable views or practices come from someone who isn’t white, we’ve been too cautious frankly – frankly, even fearful – to stand up to them. The failure, for instance, of some to confront the horrors of forced marriage, the practice where some young girls are bullied and sometimes taken abroad to marry someone when they don’t want to, is a case in point. This hands-off tolerance has only served to reinforce the sense that not enough is shared. And this all leaves some young Muslims feeling rootless. And the search for something to belong to and something to believe in can lead them to this extremist ideology. Now for sure, they don’t turn into terrorists overnight, but what we see – and what we see in so many European countries – is a process of radicalisation. Internet chatrooms are virtual meeting places where attitudes are shared, strengthened and validated. In some mosques, preachers of hate can sow misinformation about the plight of Muslims elsewhere. In our communities, groups and organisations led by young, dynamic leaders promote separatism by encouraging Muslims to define themselves solely in terms of their religion. All these interactions can engender a sense of community, a substitute for what the wider society has failed to supply. Now, you might say, as long as they’re not hurting anyone, what is the problem with all this? Well, I’ll tell you why. As evidence emerges about the backgrounds of those convicted of terrorist offences, it is clear that many of them were initially influenced by what some have called ‘non-violent extremists’, and they then took those radical beliefs to the next level by embracing violence. And I say this is an indictment of our approach to these issues in the past. And if we are to defeat this threat, I believe it is time to turn the page on the failed policies of the past. So first, instead of ignoring this extremist ideology, we – as governments and as societies – have got to confront it, in all its forms. And second, instead of encouraging people to live apart, we need a clear sense of shared national identity that is open to everyone."Cameron goes on to discuss public policy options. He's particularly critical of showering Muslim organizations with money, "despite doing little to combat extremism. As others have observed, this is like turning to a right-wing fascist party to fight a violent white supremacist movement." He urges evaluating the actions and objectives of organizations that receive public money to determine whether they promote British values. He says that this must be done within Islam as well. "So let us give voice to those followers of Islam in our own countries – the vast, often unheard majority – who despise the extremists and their worldview." Other policies that he advances are:
"Today, developments in North Africa, [including] Egypt, Tunisia and some other countries have a special meaning for the Iranian nation. This is what was always referred to as the Islamic awakening created by the victory of the great Revolution of the Iranian nation. ... In Tunisia, which is a Muslim nation with a long Islamic history with great Muslim scholars coming from Tunisia; people had to carry a special card to go to mosques under Ben Ali's rule, a card that the government did not give to everyone. ... As soon as this traitor (Ben Ali) fled, female students went to university wearing hijab. ... [Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is the] lackey of the Zionist regime [Israel]."According to the article, he added that Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak was a tool in the hands of the US, and that the US and Israel have become helpless in the face of freedom-seeking Egyptians. He said that defeat awaits the US and Israel in Tunisia and Egypt. There's a lot of dark humor associated with this story, after Khamenei's government massacred Iranian protesters last year. It never ceases to astonish me that the Iranian leadership, including Khamenei and president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, actually believe that the Sunni Arab states are going to allow Iran to be their leader, just as the Caliphate in Istanbul in Ottoman Turkey used to be their leader. This policy is particularly outlandish in the case of supplying money and weapons to Hamas. Hamas will, of course, happily take their free money and weapons. (If Iran offered me free money, I'd take it too.) But Sunni Muslim Gazans will never side with Iran against their fellow Arabs. The only country that the Sunni Arabs hate more than Israel is Iran. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Food prices surge +3.4% in January to fresh historic highs" World food prices surged to a new historic peak in January, for the seventh consecutive month, according to the <#stdurl http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/50519/icode/ "U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110204.jpg center "" "FAO Food Price Index - 1991 - January 2011"#> Food prices were already at historic highs in December. Many politicians were predicting that food prices would start to fall again by now, as the result of new rice and wheat crops. Instead, food prices surged by 3.4% in one month, with almost all categories showing increases. According to FAO economist Abdolreza Abbassian, moderation in food prices is nowhere to be seen:
"The new figures clearly show that the upward pressure on world food prices is not abating. These high prices are likely to persist in the months to come. High food prices are of major concern especially for low-income food deficit countries that may face problems in financing food imports and for poor households which spend a large share of their income on food. The only encouraging factor so far stems from a number of countries, where - due to good harvests - domestic prices of some of the food staples remain low compared to world prices."The last sentence is very weird, and it just goes to show how screwed up these politicians are. He's saying that it's good news that food prices in some countries are lower than average world prices. Good news, right? But that means that food prices in some other countries must be HIGHER than average world prices. Well, despite the spin, high and surging food prices are the most destabilizing factor in the world today. If you search the news, you can find that there are news stories about how almost every country in the world is adversely affected. Just to take one example, <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/04/bangladesh-tender-idINSGE71304U20110204 "Reuters"#> reports that Bangladesh's food inflation rate was 11.01% in December, which they blame on hoarding, speculating and panic buying. So Bangladesh is going to do some panic buying itself, and purchasing 100,000 tonnes of wheat, rather than the previously planned 50,000 tonnes, putting the excess into storage. This kind of panic buying will push prices even higher. Prices of vegetables and fruits have almost doubled in Saudi Arabia, because most of those products are imported from Egypt, which is in chaos, according to the <#stdurl http://arabnews.com/saudiarabia/article251455.ece "Arab News."#> Problems have been made even worse because some city warehouses in south Jeddah were flooded last week. As I've written many times, most recently in <#inc ww2010.weblog.subref e110110 e110110c ""10-Jan-11 News -- Governments around the world struggle with increasing food prices,""#> food prices have been rising steadily since 2002, with no end in sight. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what we're seeing is what I call the "Malthus effect," a continuing increase in the price of food as the population grows faster than the supply of food, especially during a generational Crisis era. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// Bernanke says Fed not to blame for high food prices In answering questions from reporters this week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the Fed was not to blame for food price inflation. <#stdurl http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2011/0203/Bernanke-Federal-Reserve-not-to-blame-for-food-price-inflation "CS Monitor"#> =// .h4 Anti-government protesters jubilant in Cairo, Egypt Anti-government protesters in Cairo, Egypt, were jubilant on Friday, even though they didn't achieve their primary objective of forcing president Hosni Mubarak to step down. The pro-government protesters, with whom they had fought in previous days, had disappeared, and the army protected the anti-government protesters. They sang protest songs, changed anti-Mubarak slogans, and promised to remain in Tahrir Square until Mubarak leaves. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Cairo-Protesters-In-Jubilant-Mood-115337359.html "VOA"#> =// .h4 PKK terrorist attacks up in Turkey in 2010 The PKK terrorist group in Turkey was thought to have been subdued, but 2010 was a very "successful" year for them, with 90 Turkish soldiers and dozens of civilians killed in terrorist attacks. <#stdurl http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/ISN-Insights/Detail?lng=en&ots627=fce62fe0-528d-4884-9cdf-283c282cf0b2&id=126502&contextid734=126502&contextid735=126499&tabid=126499 "ISN"#> =// .h4 Tribal elders turning against Taliban in Sangin, Afghanistan There's an interesting story about how tribal elders in the Sangin district in Afghanistan, who are supposedly Taliban sympathizers, have turned against the Taliban (presumably Pakistani Taliban, though that's not mentioned). This is consistent with the fact that Afghanistan is in a generational Recovery era, with no desire for war. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110106 ""6-Jan-11 News -- Pakistan melts down as US/Nato forces struggle in Afghanistan.""#>) <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/taliban-killing-their-own-in-bid-to-wrest-back-control-in-sangin-2199016.html "Independent"#> =// .h4 Clashes on the border between Thailand and Cambodia The Cambodian "Killing Fields" civil war of the 1970s was a generational crisis war for both Cambodia and Thailand. Now, as both countries are in generational Awakening eras, some border violence is flaring up again. <#stdurl http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-02/04/c_13719179.htm "Xinhua"#> =// .h4 Resentment builds against Germany in European financial talks As European officials continue to meet and try to figure out how to head off the next major crisis, a lot of resentment is growing against German Chancellor Angela Merkel because "the solution seems to be relatively simple: for the eurozone to thrive in its second decade, Spain, Greece, Italy and all the rest need to turn into Germany.." <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/feb/05/germany-eurozone-angela-merkel "Guardian"#> =// .h4 Tens of thousands protest in Yemen 'Day of Rage' Tens of thousands of people in Yemen held street protests for Thursday's "Day of Rage." There were both anti- and pro-government protesters. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/03/us-yemen-groups-idUSTRE7123P820110203 "Reuters"#> =// .h4 China's huge housing bubble continues to expand Home prices in China, already at bubble levels, rose another 1% in January, the biggest one month gain in six months. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-01/china-s-january-home-prices-post-biggest-gain-in-six-months-soufun-says.html "Bloomberg"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=644 "5-Feb-11 News -- Food prices surge +3.4% in January to fresh historic highs"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110204 4-Feb-11 News -- The lull before the storm in Egypt as 'Friday of Departure' approaches =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110204.head 4-Feb-11 News -- The lull before the storm in Egypt as 'Friday of Departure' approaches =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110204.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110204.loc ww2010.weblog.log1102 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110204.date 4-Feb-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110204.txt1 Comments from readers on the Muslim Brotherhood =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110204.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "The lull before the storm in Egypt as 'Friday of Departure' approaches" There was bloodshed in Egypt again on Thursday, as pro- and anti-Mubarak fought each other in Cairo and Alexandria. Still, the streets were quieter on Thursday than they had been for the preceding couple of days. <#inc ww2010.pic g110203.jpg right "" "Cairo (AP)"#> It may have been the lull before the storm. The protesters have declared this to be "Friday of Departure," the day when Mubarak must step down if massive demonstrations are to be avoided. The demonstrations are scheduled to begin after Friday Muslim prayers and Christian services, at a time when huge numbers of people pour out of mosques and churches into the streets. On Thursday, president Hosni Mubarak was informally interviewed by Christiane Amanpour at <#stdurl http://abcnews.go.com/International/egypt-abc-news-christiane-amanpour-exclusive-interview-president/story?id=12833673 "ABC News."#> According to Amanpour:
"He told me he felt strong and that he was relieved he had made his decision and that speech on Monday to step down. I asked him afterwards whether I could report our conversation. He said yes. He told me that he is fed up with being president and would like to leave office now, but cannot, he says, for fear that the country would sink into chaos. When I asked him what he thought seeing the people shouting insults about him and wanting him gone, he said, "I don't care what people say about me. Right now I care about my country, I care about Egypt." ... And he pledged his loyalty to Egypt. "I would never run away," he said, "I will die on this soil." He also defended his legacy, recounting the many years he has spent leading his country."My previous articles (see <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110203 ""3-Feb-11 News -- Violence between protester factions kills three in Egypt""#> and <#inc ww2010.weblog.subref e110131 e110131b ""31-Jan-11 News -- Millions riot in Egypt as the West fears a Muslim Brotherhood victory.""#>) on Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood generated a variety of opinions expressed in comments by readers. Those opinions were similar to opinions being expressed by the public as a whole. In those articles, I reached the following conclusions, using Generational Dynamics analysis: The violence most likely will fizzle in a few days, or at most a few weeks; and a Muslim Brotherhood political victory will not cause more than cosmetic changes to the peace treaty with Israel. I would be forced to reexamine and possibly change some of my conclusions if either of the following two things happened: The young protesters suddenly started shouting "Death to Israel" en masse; or there was evidence that the pro- and anti-Mubarak protesters were split along ethnic or religious lines. Some web site readers rejected the whole argument:"
"I'm NOT buying what is being sold here. Let's see --Al Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood are bitter enemies. OK-- I hope they ALL send each other to their reward of 72 virgins.---But just because they don't get along gives me NO reason to hold ANY affection for either of these towel head groups. MB remain at peace with Israel???? OH PLEASE!" "The Brotherhood? seriously? A peaceful religion, are you serious? The world is watching the dreams of all these radicals come true. Peaceful my foot, the world is letting them sneak into their governments, and neighborhoods without much a fight. It will too late if it isn't already. This can be stopped if we only a leader of the free to step up . Obama is not that leader, way to America. Perhaps we should be paying more attention to what our own candidats are really saying and then hold them accountable when they do not. The Tea Party can't do it all." "I have no doubt that the Muslim Brotherhood will soon get their hands on what is left of the money we have given to Mubarak and use it to buy arms to kill Americans with,you could not make this up" "'Thus, I don’t see any particular danger from the political ascendency of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt' - This is so stunningly clueless, I'm speechless." "Expecting the Muslim Brotherhood and their current "partner" for head of government El Baradei to come to the table demanding anything but regime change and more "freedom" would be assuming they had suddenly gone stupid, and were reversing their openly declared program of the last few decades. Expecting them not to reveal their true program once they are in power . . ." "Islam exists to enslave its' followers and to kill the infidel. Any surprise here? I hope Jews come together and remember their history so they can unite against a common foe." "This whole crisis is media generated. The military controls Egypt. Mubarak came out of the military and was elected as a frontman. The military will replace Mubarak with another straw man and the ball will keep rolling. The Muslim Brotherhood does not have the ability to take power away from Egypt's military."A few comments were more positive:
"I am praying that your assessment is correct and holds, Mr. Xenakis. I am praying for a solution with a very low body count.." "As always your analysis is spot on. I've been sharing your insights with my influence group to give a great perspective. When you understand generational theory, you understand a lot! The food prices in Egypt must have skyrocketed." "I believe you are right on with this assessment Mr. Xenakis. Egypt is a little different than say Syria, or Iran. There is a vast majority of blood-thirsty throwbacks, no denying, but there is the Ancient Egyptian culture that gives some of the people a better sense of overall history and pride not just the death-cult lunacy which Islam provides. Sharia will be coming to Cairo however, I'm bullish on the burka market."Many commentators are comparing what's happening in Egypt to what happened in Iran in 1979:
"I AM hearing death to Israel and death to America. I am hearing from rioters that Mubarak is a stooge for the Israelis and the Americans and needs to go because of that. Like the Palestinians, these people have been raised to hate Israel and America and this is instinctive. This IS another Iran. And that is the good news. This Might be the start of the Caliphate and a new dark ages for mankind. That is the bad news."The narrative for the comparison is that in both cases there was a popular uprising against the American-supported leader (the Shah and Mubarak, respectively). In Iran, the opposition was a group of Shia Muslim clerics led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and the opposition only showed its true colors after they had gained power. The analogy would be that the Muslim Brotherhood would take control of Egypt, and only then would reveal their Islamist intentions, leading to the Great Islamic Revolution. However, the comparison fails because there are significant differences:
"I've found a voice of reason in a sea of madness... 'No evidence to support claims that having the MB in some postion of power transitionally or permanently would result in chaos for the region.' Cautious, but optimistic, willing to stake a position without the fear-mongering. I disagree that the protests will fizzle out inconclusively within a short time, but we'll see. ... I'm curious about how your position might change if, not due to any change along ethnic or generational lines, the violence escalates to a higher level. That is, there were no immediate end in sight yet there was a sharp increase in casualties for instance, where would you see a "line" crossed and a need for a different course to be taken, if any, and what might that entail?"If you're talking about a Tiananmen Square style massacre, recall that the massacre did not lead to civil war, and kept the Chinese Communist Party in power, crushing the opposition. So the analogy in Egypt today would be a massacre by the Mubarak administration, keeping it in power, and crushing the opposition, including the Brotherhood. That outcome would not contradict any of the conclusions I've reached, but it seems unlikely anyway. Mubarak has not stepped down, but he has taken several conciliatory measures, and is under enormous international pressure to continue to be conciliatory. Furthermore, even if he changes his mind and orders the army to massacre the protesters, it's far from clear that they would obey those orders -- in fact, they've announced several times that they will not shoot at peaceful Egyptian protesters. Despite all that, a massacre scenario is still a possibility.
"I just wanted to understand why, one day (16th) you wrote that Tunisia movement could create a civil war in Egypt, and then "suddenly" (without transition, without explanation) you jumped into Egypt saying that there were no risk of civil war."The short answer is that the conclusions changed as the facts about Egypt's demonstrations became clearer. Generational Dynamics forecasting is not a set of formulas. It's a process and a collection of tools that match news events to long-term trends, to produce a short-term forecast. (See <#hreftext ww2010.i.forecast090503 ""Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology.""#>) One way to understand certain kinds of forecasts is by means of the quote from Sherlock Holmes: "Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth." Sometimes Generational Dynamics cannot tell you what WILL happen, but can tell you what WON'T happen. Once you've eliminated the impossible, you can conclude that what remains will happen. I've used this technique frequently in Lebanon, for example, where a civil war at this time is impossible, since Lebanon is in a generational Awakening era. It's not that simple in the case of Egypt today, because Egypt is in a generational Crisis era, so it's impossible to eliminate a civil war, and that's what I had in mind at the time I was writing about the effect of the Tunisia uprising in Egypt. At that time, there were a number of dangerous possibilities. It might have been possible that the Egypt riots pitted a large, organized Muslim Brotherhood organization against the government. Or it might have been possible that the Coptic Christians might be fighting the Muslims. As it became clear that those possibilities were impossibilities, one could reach the current conclusions. As usual, this analysis can only be improved with additional information. If you're familiar with the situation in Egypt, and particularly if you've lived in Egypt, then I would welcome your comments, either privately or in the public forum. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=643 "4-Feb-11 News -- The lull before the storm in Egypt as 'Friday of Departure' approaches"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110203 3-Feb-11 News -- Violence between protester factions kills three in Egypt =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110203.head 3-Feb-11 News -- Violence between protester factions kills three in Egypt =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110203.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110203.loc ww2010.weblog.log1102 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110203.date 3-Feb-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110203.txt1 Russia building its navy for a challenge to China =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110203.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Violence between protester factions kills three in Egypt" As we described yesterday, no sooner had Egypt's president Hosni Mubarak finished his speech on Tuesday evening vowing to step down in September, then pro-Mubarak and anti-Mubarak protesters started throwing sticks and rocks at each other. The factional violence increased substantially through the day on Wednesday, according to <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-egypt-square-scene-20110203,0,3157253.story "LA Times."#> Rocks, sticks and Molotov cocktails were used, as well as occasional gunfire. At one point, pro-Mubarak protesters joined the fray riding atop camels from the tourist attractions at the Pyramids of Giza. By the end of the day, three people had been killed. Where did the pro-Mubarak protesters come from? Reporters from <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/02/02/egypt.pro.mubarak/ "CNN"#> questioned a number of pro-Mubarak protesters and found that many of them had been paid or ordered by the Mubarak government to go out and oppose the anti-Mubarak protesters. On the other hand, there are many civil servants whose jobs depend on a continuing Mubarak government, and they also participated in the confrontations with the anti-Mubarak protesters. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what's important here is that there is no sign that the pro- and anti-Mubarak protesters are split along some ethnic or religious fault line. Without that kind of fault line fueling the violence, it appears that it's a political disagreement that got out of control, and I would expect the violence to fizzle within a couple of weeks. The situation is far more dangerous in countries which do have ethnic and religous fault lines, as the youth rebellion "contagion" spreads. In war-torn Yemen, President Ali Abdullah Saleh was forced to announce that he would step down, according to <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Yemeni-President-Will-Not-Seek-New-Term-115089099.html "VOA."#> After weeks of street protests in Jordan, King Abdullah II was forced to sack his cabinet and call for a new government, although the King himself remains popular, according to <#stdurl http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0201/Jordan-s-King-Abdullah-shuffles-cabinet-but-few-see-an-Egypt-in-the-making "CS Monitor."#> And in Gaza, Hamas leaders are concerned that young Palestinians will turn against Hamas, just as young Egyptians have turned against Mubarak, according to <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/hamas-concerned-upheaval-in-arab-world-will-spill-into-gaza-1.340690 "Haaretz."#> In my report two days ago, <#inc ww2010.weblog.subref e110131 e110131b ""31-Jan-11 News -- Millions riot in Egypt as the West fears a Muslim Brotherhood victory,""#> I explained in detail why it appears likely that a Muslim Brotherhood political victory in Egypt would not result in more than cosmetic changes to the Israeli peace treaty and relations with America. Several web site readers wrote to me to point out that the Muslim Brotherhood web site says different things on the Arabic and English language pages (and there's also a <#stdurl http://bigpeace.com/cbrim/2011/01/30/muslim-brotherhood-deception-they-say-different-things-in-english-and-arabic/ "BigPeace"#> article on this subject). However, the argument that I made has nothing to do with Brotherhood's stated policies. It was based on Egypt's own self-interest, and the attitudes and behavior of the young generation. From what I've seen, all of these factors indicate the conclusion that a Brotherhood involvement in Egypt's politics will not mean a change in policies towards Israel. A special commentary by <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37446&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=4c123a2066 "Jamestown Foundation"#> puts the question very succintly: "If the MB were to join a democratically elected government, which Brotherhood would appear: the moderate organization of recent times or the extremist movement of the past?" These are all very serious concerns. However, I would say that people should not underestimate the importance of the generational factor, which is highly significant in this case. The vast majority of Egyptians are under age 30. That means that the vast majority of Egyptians have known only an Egypt that was at peace with Israel, and have known only a Muslim Brotherhood that was non-violent. There is absolutely nothing, in my opinion, that could convince the young protesters, whether pro- or anti-Mubarak, to suddenly abrogate the peace treaty with Israel, or support a violent Muslim Brotherhood. Going back to the Muslim Brotherhood web site, it's true that the web page in Arabic is much more bellicose towards Israel than the English language page. The implication is that the Arabic page is the "true" policy, while the English page is the "deceptive" page, because it targets a Western audience. First, I would point out that there's no such distinction in al-Qaeda's web sites. Everything coming from al-Qaeda, whether in Arabic or English, reads "Death to America." Nor is there any such distinction made by the administration in Iran. So my response to the Brotherhood situation is that the evidence on the ground in Egypt supports the conclusion that it's the Brotherhood's English page that represents the "true" policy, while the Arabic page, targeted to a broad anti-American Arabian audience, is the one that's deceptive. I'm guided by what I'm hearing from the kids who are rioting in Egypt. If suddenly they change direction and start saying "Death to America," then I would have to change my conclusion. But right now, the evidence supports my conclusion that the Brotherhood would remain at peace with Israel. The Jamestown Foundation article referenced above points out the following:
"The Brotherhood and al-Qaeda are political enemies. Al-Qaeda has not been a factor in any of the MB’s actions during the recent days of anger across the Egyptian landscape. Ayman al-Zawahiri wrote a bitter book covering 60 years of history of the MB, entitled The Bitter Harvest, containing over 200 pages of vitriolic attack on the Brotherhood. The Brotherhood regularly publishes anti-al-Qaeda articles on its official website. The MB General Guide signed a statement after 9/11 that condemned “in the strongest terms and sorrow, these events, which are against all human and Islamic values” (Quds al-Arabi, London, September 14, 2001, in Arabic). The Arabic word translated as “events” in the statement is very weak and the MB placed its signature among many. Nevertheless, the organization went on the record against attacks on innocents. One of the characteristics of the Brotherhood in Egypt that most infuriates al-Qaeda is its willingness to participate in the democratic process. In a slight nod toward political reform by President Mubarak, 2005 marked the first time Egyptians could vote for more than one candidate. In the election for parliament, MB members running as independents captured approximately one-fifth of the seats (88 out of 444). Banned as a political party, the Brotherhood was the only opposition party to be organized in every region of Egypt."So anyone who uses the Brotherhood web site as evidence of something should also consider that the Brotherhood web site is harshly critical of al-Qaeda, and particularly condemns attacks on innocent victims. I would be forced to reexamine and possibly change some of my conclusions if either of the following two things happened: The young protesters suddenly started shouting "Death to Israel"; or there was evidence that the pro- and anti-Mubarak protesters were split along ethnic or religious lines. As things stand today, my conclusions remain the same: The violence most likely will fizzle in a few days, or at most a few weeks; and a Muslim Brotherhood political victory will not cause more than cosmetic changes to the peace treaty with Israel. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Russia building its navy for a challenge to China Russia is increasing its naval forces, and is reorienting its naval priorities to the Asia-Pacific Region, with a new emphasis on meeting the challenge posed by China’s naval buildup. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37445&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=1615f4f821 "Jamestown Foundation"#> =// .h4 China, Pakistan, Iran not invited to India air show South Asia's biggest air show will be held in India next week. About 350 official and trade delegations from 30 countries including Australia, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, Germany and the United States will participate in the five-day event. However, China, Pakistan and Iran have not been invited. <#stdurl http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/01/pakistan-blocked-from-indian-airshow.html "AFP"#> =// .h4 Can a computer do your job? Can a computer do your job? Many experts make the simple complicated, because they fear that they could be replaced by a computer. <#stdurl http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/can-computer-do-your-job.html "Falkenblog"#> =// .h4 Al Gore blames cold weather and snow on man-made global warming Al Gore blames cold weather and snow on "man-made global warming." <#stdurl http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/677-e2-wire/141529-al-gore-responds-to-bill-oreilly-on-snow-climate-nexus "The Hill"#> =// .h4 Real men eat meat; vegetarians are wimps Women consider men who eat meat to be more manly, according to research at University of British Columbia. Vegetarian men are seen as wimps and less macho than meat-eaters, even by vegetarian women. <#stdurl http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-1352393/Real-men-eat-meat-say-women-turn-noses-vegetarians.html?ITO=1490 "Daily Mail"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=642 "3-Feb-11 News -- Violence between protester factions kills three in Egypt"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110202 2-Feb-11 News -- Disastrous health care law struck down by Florida judge =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110202.head 2-Feb-11 News -- Disastrous health care law struck down by Florida judge =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110202.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110202.loc ww2010.weblog.log1102 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110202.date 2-Feb-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110202.txt1 Mubarak vows to step down, to die on the soil of Egypt =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110202.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Disastrous health care law struck down by Florida judge" I'd be willing to be that there are a bunch of Democrats in the White House and Congress who are quietly thanking Florida federal judge Roger Vinson under their breath. He found the disastrous "ObamaCare" health care bill unconstitutional, according to the <#stdurl http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/01/us/01ruling.html "NY Times."#> The full opinion can be found in <#stdurl http://s3.amazonaws.com/nytdocs/docs/569/569.pdf "this PDF."#> The entire process was melting down anyway. The Administration had granted an additional 500 waivers to the law's provisions, according to <#stdurl http://thehill.com/blogs/healthwatch/health-reform-implementation/140533-hhs-grants-new-reform-waivers-amid-heightened-scrutiny "The Hill,"#> bringing the total to 722. The waivers heavily favor labor unions and state governments. This is exactly the kind of mess that sank President Nixon's wage-price controls. When you have some politician in Washington deciding which people in Kansas are going to be exempt from a law and which are going to have to follow the law, then the number of complaints increases exponentially. As I've written several times, most recently in <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e101001 ""1-Oct-10 News -- McDonald's threatens end to worker health benefits,""#> until last year, by far the dumbest and most destructive economic policy enacted in Washington in my lifetime was the imposition, by President Richard Nixon's administration, of wage-price controls, to counter the national "emergency" represented by an inflation rate of about 4.5%. The controls program was an utter disaster. The inflation rate spiked up during the period of wage-price controls. It caused numerous shortages and mini-calamities, and did enormous damage until it was ended three years later. The health care bill, which was wage-price controls for doctors, hospitals and health services, was in the process of doing even greater damage to the American economy. I've heard one commentator after another complain that businesses, especially small businesses, don't understand the health care bill, don't know how to comply with it, are afraid to hire people because it might obligate to enormous health care costs. Many commentators have pointed out that it was to the benefit of many small businesses to drop health care coverage altogether, and pay a fine of $2000 per employee, rather than pay the ill-defined cost of health care. Unfortunately, the decision does not yet mean that the health care bill is dead. There will be appeals, and eventually the Supreme Court will decide. It's possible that the Supreme Court will side with the Administration, in which case the disaster will continue. The part of the law that was struck down was the "individual mandate," that requires Americans to purchase health insurance. Proponents of the law had argued that requiring people to buy health insurance was no different than requiring them to purchase automobile insurance. However, the judge found that purchasing car insurance was related to obtaining the privilege to drive a car, while buying health insurance was not linked to any similar privilege. Another judge had also struck down the individual mandate, but Vinson went farther. He pointed out that the Administration had argued that the individual mandate was tightly integrated into the entire law, and that many other parts of the law could not be implemented without the individual mandate. Vinson said that he could not sort out which provisions of the law could be implemented without the individual mandate, and which could not. And so he struck down the entire law. There are many popular reforms in the health care law. The best thing for the country right now would be for Congress to start from scratch and create a replacement law. This is favored by Republicans, and opposed by Democrats, and so there's little chance that it will be done. And so the nihilism, the harm to the nation in a time of crisis will continue. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Mubarak vows to step down, to die on the soil of Egypt" Egypt's president Hosni Mubarak vowed not to run for reelection in September, and promised to institute electoral reforms that would allow more frequent elections, according to the <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/8297375/Egypt-crisis-Hosni-Mubarak-vows-to-step-down.html "Telegraph:"#>
"My first responsibility is to restore the stability of the country and to ensure a peaceful transition of power. I have no intent to stand for those elections because I have spent enough time serving Egypt."<#inc ww2010.pic g110201b.jpg right "" "Hosni Mubarak giving speech on Tuesday (Telegraph)"#> However, it's far from clear that this promise will satisfy the young anti-Mubarak protesters. They want to see Mubarak gone as quickly as possible, although they have no idea what will come after that. Mubarak also said:
"I take take pride in the long years I spent in the service of Egypt and its people. This beloved homeland is my homeland, as it is the homeland of all Egyptians. I defended its soil and sovereignty, and I will die on the soil of Egypt, and I will be judged by history for my merits and demerits."This was a significant declaration. Its intention was to contrast himself against Tunisia's former president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who fled from Tunisia in disgrace and humiliation. Mubarak alluded to his status as war hero, and appeared to indicate not only that he wouldn't flee, but that he would fight and die, if necessary and forced to do so. After Mubarak's speech, Al-Jazeera was showing scenes of violence between anti-Mubarak and pro-Mubarak protesters -- sticks and rock-throwing. Since Egypt is in a generational Crisis era, it's possible that this could escalate. The fluid situation in Egypt could go in several different directions now, especially since there's no clear path for Egypt is Mubarak is forced to step down immediately. However, it's still my expectation that the situation in Egypt will not spiral out of control, that it will stabilize and generally continue its existing policies with Israel and the West, with some adjustments for appearances. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Palestinian Authority no longer has any purpose The Palestinian Authority was having trouble justifying its existence anyway, but after the release of the "Palestine Papers" by al-Jazeera, making it clear that the "Mideast Peace Process" is completely dead, the Palestinians are at a crossroad that could give control of the West Bank to Hamas. <#stdurl http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/palestinian-authoritys-back-to-wall-after-al-jazeera-revelations "The National (UAE)"#> =// .h4 Young Palestinians may turn against Hamas Hamas leaders are concerned that young Palestinians will turn against Hamas, just as young Egyptians have turned against Mubarak. <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/hamas-concerned-upheaval-in-arab-world-will-spill-into-gaza-1.340690 "Haaretz"#> =// .h4 Secret 2008 China document plans for 2012 invasion of Taiwan The people of Taiwan are shocked by a new book, "2012 Taiwan Disaster," written by Yuan Hongbing, who has been exiled by China and lives in Australia. The book reveals a secret Beijing document from 2008 that plans for an invasion of Taiwan in 2012. The deadline of 2012 was set by revered former leader Deng Xiaoping (now deceased), who said that solving the Taiwan problem as quickly as possible was "an issue of life and death for the Communist Party and for the Socialist system in China." His fear was that an independent Taiwan, with its democratic political system, would "infect" the mainland, and cause mainlanders to demand the right to pick their own leaders. Ironically, the thaw in relations that allows thousands of mainlanders to visit Taiwan and experience freedom for themselves actually increases the chance of an invasion, rather than making it more unlikely. <#stdurl http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2946&Itemid=386 "Asia Sentinel"#> =// .h4 South Korea's 'Sunshine Policy' towards the North is over South Korea's "Sunshine Policy" towards North Korea is over. Under that policy, aid was extended to the North, and South Korean civilians could visit their families in the North. After last year's sinking of the Cheonan warship and shelling of Yeonpyeong Island. The Sunshine Policy was supposed to lead to reunification, but it failed. The new policy is much more harsh, and its objective is to force the North Koreans to consider reunification. <#stdurl http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2950&Itemid=182 "Asia Sentinel"#> =// .h4 Kim Jong-Il's oldest son signals North Korean regime split North Korean leader Kim Jong-il recently selected his younger son, Kim Jong-un, to succeed him upon his death. Now, the oldest son, Kim Jong-nam, is denouncing officials in the government who are too "hawkish." The denunciation signals a split and possible battle for succession. <#stdurl http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/01/31/2011013101031.html "Chosun"#> =// .h4 Anti-government dissent increasing in North Korea A survey of North Korean defectors indicates that anti-government dissent is growing in North Korea. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jzugn93r1TLXSxDLCaaYU-3zaMlg?docId=CNG.ddc0305146893ec9e9e6796d743e6af7.851 "AFP"#> =// .h4 Pakistan increasing size of nuclear arsenal With China's help, Pakistan has increased its nuclear arsenal beyond 100 deployed weapons, pushing them ahead of India, which is thought to have 60-100 weapons. Pakistan becomes the fifth largest nuclear power, behind the U.S., Russia, China, and Israel (with 200 weapons). <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/30/AR2011013004136.html "Washington Post"#> =// .h4 American drones watch over former Soviet nuclear test site in Kazakhstan A region in Kazakhstan the size of Israel is littered with plutonium and other nuclear waste left behind by the detonation of 500 nuclear bombs in tests by the former Soviet Union. The American defense department is patrolling this no-man's land with drones, watching for any possible terrorists who might be gathering this material for use in a dirty bomb. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,741679,00.html "Spiegel"#> =// .h4 Putin appears to be lead in 2012 Russian presidential election Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev appears to be getting increasingly invisible and irrelevant, as the 2012 presidential election approaches, and Vladimir Putin appears to be winning. <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37431 "Jamestown"#> =// .h4 Young Russians avoiding the draft Enormous numbers of young Russians are avoiding the military service, indicating that the draft has become so unpopular that Moscow can save the situation only by employing ever more repressive measures or providing a massive infusion of new funds for the armed services. <#stdurl http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2011/01/window-on-eurasia-only-repression-or.html "Window on Eurasia"#> =// .h4 Russia's booksellers report that Russia is moving to the left Booksellers in Moscow report that demand is growing substantially among their young educated customers for Marxist and neo-Marxist literature, indicating that Russia is moving to the left. <#stdurl http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2011/01/window-on-eurasia-reading-habits.html "Window on Eurasia"#> =// .h4 Venezuela's Chavez tells homeless people to squat in the homes of wealthy people Venezuela's president Hugo Chavez is telling homeless people to take over the homes of wealthy people and become squatters. <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/26/venezuela-chavez-housing-crisis-squats-caracas "Guardian"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=641 "2-Feb-11 News -- Disastrous health care law struck down by Florida judge"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110201 1-Feb-11 News -- Russia claims to have identified the Moscow airport bomber =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110201.head 1-Feb-11 News -- Russia claims to have identified the Moscow airport bomber =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110201.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110201.loc ww2010.weblog.log1102 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110201.date 1-Feb-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110201.txt1 All international airports are vulnerable to the same kind of attack =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110201.txt2 I'm having a lot of internet problems, apparently because of the snowstorms, so posting may be spotty for a couple of days. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Russia claims to have identified the Moscow airport bomber" Russian investigators say that the suicide bomber responsible for killing 35 people last week at Moscow's Domodedovo international airport has been identified. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110125 ""25-Jan-11 News -- Suicide bomber kills 35 people in Moscow airport.""#>) The suicide bomber has been identified as a 20-year-old from the North Caucasus (Russis's mostly Muslim southern provinces). However, the terrorist’s name has not been released while the investigation and the hunt for the masterminds continues, according to the article. The suicide attack exposed a weakness existing at every international airport in the world, according to <#stdurl http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/01/31/42225588.html "Voice of Russia."#> At most airports, there's a long line of people waiting to go through the airport metal detectors. That's the crowd of people that were targeted by the January 24 attack in Moscow, and the same crowd of people could be targeted anywhere in the world. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=640 "1-Feb-11 News -- Russia claims to have identified the Moscow airport bomber"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110131 31-Jan-11 News -- Rift grows between Palestinian Authority and Al-Jazeera =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110131.head 31-Jan-11 News -- Rift grows between Palestinian Authority and Al-Jazeera =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110131.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110131.loc ww2010.weblog.log1101 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110131.date 31-Jan-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110131.txt1 Millions riot in Egypt as the West fears a Muslim Brotherhood victory =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110131.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 e110131a "Rift grows between Palestinian Authority and Al-Jazeera" Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is quoted by the <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=205920 "Jerusalem Post"#> as accusing al-Jazeers of trying to topple the Palestinian Authority government:
"They [Al-Jazeera] thought that Palestine was like Tunisia. They tried to spread lies because they thought that what happened in Tunisia could happen in Palestine. Al-Jazeera thought that they could finish us off, but the Palestinian people have responded to their lies and distortions."I watched quite a bit of the al-Jazeera coverage of the Palestine Papers, and I reported on it in detail in several reports last week. But I was really shocked by the lack of professionalism of al-Jazeera. I'm not referring to the release of the previously secret papers. Any news organization would have done that, given the opportunity. I'm referring to their own news coverage of the release. As I indicated in my reports, there was not a single positive word about the Palestinian Authority, and not a single negative word about Hamas. I've complained about the bias of the New York Times over the years, and their strong anti-Americanism, sometimes siding with the terrorists during the Iraq war. But even the NY Times has token conservatives on its writing staff. But al-Jazeera didn't even bother with a fig leaf. The people at al-Jazeera hate the Palestinian Authority, and they love Hamas, and of the many commentators I heard, not a single one expressed a different point of view. Al-Jazeera has essentially become an arm of Hamas. =inc ww2010.h4 e110131b "Millions riot in Egypt as the West fears a Muslim Brotherhood victory" (This is my BigPeace article on the subject. It includes some material from my reports from the last few days.) Some of the Western press is treating the riots in Egypt as a blessed event. "A new Egypt is likely to emerge from Revolution that seeks not Islam but Freedom," gleefully proclaims the <#stdurl http://www.nysun.com/foreign/a-new-egypt-likely-to-emerge-from-revolution/87220/ "New York Sun."#> At the other extreme, <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,742186,00.html "Der Spiegel,"#> says that the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt could take power and start supplying arms to Hamas in the Gaza Strip. <#inc ww2010.pic g110130.jpg center "" "Egyptians defying the curfew in Tahrir Square, Cairo"#> Many news stories deal endlessly with what the Obama administration should do. Needless to say, what the Obama administration does will have no predictable effect whatsoever on what happens in Egypt. Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast region is headed for a major war, refighting the genocidal 1948 war between Arabs and Jews that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. Thus, my job in this article is to analyze, as accurately as possible, whether this particular event, the chaos in Egypt, is the event that's likely to trigger this war at this time. I often characterize Gaza's population as a bunch of kids running around with guns and missiles. That's because the average age is 17, according to the <#stdurl https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/gz.html "CIA Fact Book,"#> meaning that the majority of the population are from an earlier generation than the Hamas leadership. Thus, it's not surprising that the latest poll by the <#stdurl http://www.pcpsr.org/survey/polls/2010/p38e.html "Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR)"#> finds that these kids really have little faith in either the Palestinian Authority or Hamas, and don't believe that either of them is telling the truth. These kids are like America's young Millennial generation (Gen-Y), who are sick and tired of the bitter, vitriolic fighting between Boomers and Gen-Xers, and don't particularly trust either of them. The same kind of dynamic holds in Egypt. The median age is a little older than Gaza -- 24 -- but then again, the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood are older as well. And the young people in Egypt feel little connection with either the Mubarak government, or the main opposition, the Muslim Brotherhood. For the West, the major event of the 20th century was World War II. News stories constantly talk about the "post World War II era," as if the world had been created in 1945. But for most of the Mideast Muslim world, WW II was just another war. There were two other wars that were far more important. The first was the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and Istanbul Caliphate in 1922, leaving Turkey as a secular state. The effect on the Muslim world can be compared to the effect on the Catholic world if the Vatican were suddenly to become a secular organization, and the Pope decided to get married. Where there used to be an empire that tied all Muslims together, after the Ottoman Empire collapsed, the Muslim world was nothing more than a collection of unconnected islands. The Muslim Brotherhood, founded in 1928, filled that void. The Brotherhood grew rapidly and had millions of members. Once again, there was a world Muslim community. The political goal was to expel the British from the Mideast. Is the Muslim Brotherhood violent? They will tell you that outside of a couple of particular events, especially their involvement in the war between Jews and Arabs following the creation of the state of Israel, that they are not violent. They will tell you that they completely renounced violence in the 1980s. Others disagree, and many in the West consider the Muslim Brotherhood to be a terrorist organization. The Muslim Brotherhood has been banned in Egypt, but with a huge membership, they are tolerated by the Mubarak government, as long as there is no violence. About 20% of the population belongs to the Brotherhood, and they field candidates in elections as "independents." The second important 20th century war in the Muslim world was Iran's 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, followed by the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s. This war electrified the entire Muslim world because it showed that it's possible once again to have an Islamic state to replace the Ottoman Empire in leading the Muslim world. But the Iran/Iraq war showed something else: that Shia Muslim Iran could never be the leader of the Sunni Muslim world. Just as the Muslim Brotherhood came out of the wreckage of the Ottoman collapse, al-Qaeda came out of the wreckage of the Iran/Iraq war. Osama bin Ladin rejected the non-violent doctrines of the Muslim Brotherhood. His political objective was to expel the British, the Americans, and the Israelis from the Mideast. Any means possible could be used, but the first step would be to trigger a revolution in some Sunni Muslim country, to replicate the success of Iran's Great Islamic Revolution. It's worth noting that al-Qaeda has eclipsed the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist group. Al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood both have linked organizations in many Muslim countries, but the Brotherhood is mostly viewed as a political organization, while al-Qaeda is the brand name of choice for anyone who wants to blow something up. In the Palestinian territories, there are three clearly identifiable generations, as I first described in 2006:
"This year is turning into a critical one for Israel, which is becoming more isolated in the ME. Turkey is gone and Egypt appears to be on the way. The collapse of Hosni Mubarak’s regime in Egypt is not yet about Israel but soon will be, depending on his successor. If the Muslim Brotherhood grabs the reins in the massive Arab country, Israel will face an enemy with one of the largest and strongest militaries around, built on some of the most advanced American-made platforms. The impact on Israel will be immediate – the IDF will need to undergo major structural changes, new units will need to be created and forces in the South will likely need to be beefed up. Since the Yom Kippur War in 1973, the IDF has not had to worry about two fronts at once. Until now."The substance of this article, that Israel is becoming increasingly isolated from its neighborsis true, and is consistent with the Generational Dynamics prediction that Arabs and Jews will be fighting a major new, refighting the genocidal 1948 war that followed the partitioining of Palestine and the creation of Israel. However, there is little evidence that this particular event, the riots in Egypt, will be the trigger for this war. So far, the riots in Egypt seem to be purely about Egyptian politics, not about the Israelis, Palestinians or Americans. And so far, the widespread concerns about the Muslim Brotherhood seem almost paranoid. However, the danger is far from over. The crowd reactions that we're seeing in Egypt are typical of a generational Crisis era. We've seen this kind of crowd reaction right here in America, when Obama was campaigning. Obama drew huge, enthusiastic crowds of young people who didn't have the vaguest idea what Obama was saying, except that they heard the word "Change," and concluded that any change was better than what was going on. The young people of Egypt are having a similar experience. They're demanding "change" -- specifically regime change -- without having any idea what kind of change they're demanding, or whether the change will make things better or worse. In fact, it will almost certainly make everything worse -- global food prices are still surging to fresh historic highs, the riots will hurt the financial markets and increase unemployment, and in a worst case scenario, the Suez Canal will be shut down. What will the young people do when it becomes clear that even regime change hasn't improved their lives? What "change" will they want next? Perhaps at that point, the Muslim Brotherhood will be able to take advantage of the situation. But unless MB officials can convince the public that threatening Israel in some way will lower the price of food or lower unemployment for Egyptians, then it's unlikely that any such threat will materialize. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Global food crisis continues to grow" In my opinion, the biggest threat to world stability today is not riots in Egypt but surging food prices that are already at historic highs and are expected to go even higher. High prices were the trigger for riots in Tunisia and Egypt, and they're causing further riots in Jordan and Yemen. On the one hand, some countries are imposing export restrictions on food. Thanks to a drought last year, Russia and Ukraine have both imposed export restrictions, according to <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/wto-chief-urges-alternatives-to-food-export-curbs/%5D "Reuters."#> On the other hand, some countries are stockpiling large amounts of food, according to the <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/8288555/Authoritarian-governments-start-stockpiling-food-to-fight-public-anger.html "Telegraph."#> This is amounting to panic buying. Algeria last week purchased 800,000 tonnes of milling wheat, enough to provide the country with a 12 month reserve. Bangladesh is tripling its rice imports, and Indonesia this week bought 820,000 tonnes of Thai rice. All of these factors are contributing to lower available supply of food, causing further higher prices. According to an analysis by the <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7116b68c-29ed-11e0-997c-00144feab49a.html "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>, the signs of a full-scale food crisis are appearing. According to the article, the 2007-2008 food crisis followed a chain of events that are being repeated today:
"SECRETARY CLINTON: Well, I think we have been answering those concerns for quite some time. And as President Obama said yesterday very clearly, and as I said in Doha, it is absolutely vital for Egypt to embrace reform, to ensure not just its long-term stability, but also the progress and prosperity that its people richly deserve. Now, Egypt has been a strong partner of the United States on a range of regional and strategic interests. And as a partner, we believe strongly, and have expressed this consistently, that the Egyptian Government needs to engage with the Egyptian people in implementing needed political, economic, and social reforms. We have consistently raised this with the Egyptian Government over many years. We also have raised it with other governments in the region. And there is a constant concern about the need for greater openness, greater participation on the part of the people, particularly young people, which is something I was very clear about in Doha. And we want to continue to partner with the Egyptian Government and the Egyptian people. Now, what will eventually happen in Egypt is up to Egyptians. But it is important for us to make very clear that as a partner of Egypt, we are urging that there be a restraint on the part of the security forces, there not be a rush to impose very strict measures that would be violent, and that there be a dialogue between the government and the people of Egypt. At the same time, we also would urge the protesters to engage in peaceful protests, which they have every right to do, and the deep grievances that they are raising deserve to be addressed. But the real question we’re focused on is: How can we support a better future for the people of Egypt that responds to their aspirations? And as I’ve said before and as the President has also said, the Egyptian Government has a real opportunity in the face of this very clear demonstration of opposition to begin a process that will truly respond to the aspirations of the people of Egypt. We think that moment needs to be seized, and we are hoping that it is."Clinton's statement had only the purpose of trying not to get blamed for doing the wrong thing, whatever happens. Still, the question of what the Obama Administration should do to make sure that democracy wins in Egypt has been a major topic of discussion on Friday. Needless to say, what the Obama administration does will have no predictable effect whatsoever on what happens in Egypt. I often characterize Gaza's population as a bunch of kids running around with guns and missiles. That's because the average age is 17, according to the <#stdurl https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/gz.html "CIA Fact Book,"#> meaning that the majority of the population are from an earlier generation than the Hamas leadership. Thus, it's not surprising that the latest poll by the <#stdurl http://www.pcpsr.org/survey/polls/2010/p38e.html "Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR)"#> finds that these kids really have little faith in either the Palestinian Authority or Hamas, and don't believe that either of them is telling the truth. These kids are like America's young Millennial generation (Gen-Y), who are sick and tired of the vitriolic fighting between Boomers and Gen-Xers, and don't particularly trust either of them. The same kind of dynamic holds in Egypt. The median age is a little older than Gaza -- 24 -- but then again, the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood are older as well. And the young people in Egypt feel little connection with either the Mubarak government, or the main opposition, the Muslim Brotherhood. For the West, the major event of the 20th century was World War II. News stories constantly talk about the "post World War II era," as if the world had been created in 1945. But for most of the Mideast Muslim world, WW II was just another war. There were two other wars that were far more important. The first was the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in 1922, leaving Turkey as a secular state. The effect on the Muslim world can be compared to the effect on the Catholic world if the Vatican were suddenly to become a secular organization. Where there used to be an empire that tied all Muslims together, after the Ottoman Empire collapsed, the Muslim world was nothing more than a collection of unconnected islands. The Muslim Brotherhood, founded in 1928, filled that void. MB grew rapidly and had millions of members. Once again, there was a world Muslim community. The political goal was to expel the British from the Mideast. Is the Muslim Brotherhood violent? They will tell you that outside of a couple of particular events, particularly their involvement in the war between Jews and Arabs following the creation of the state of Israel, that they are not violent. They will tell you that they completely renounced violence in the 1980s. Others disagree, and many in the West consider the Muslim Brotherhood to be a terrorist organization. The Muslim Brotherhood has been banned in Egypt, but with a huge membership, they are tolerated by the Mubarak government, as long as there is no violence. They field candidates in elections as "independents." The second important 20th century war in the Muslim world was the Iran's 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, followed by the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s. This war electrified the entire Muslim world because it showed that it's possible to have an Islamic state to replace the Ottoman Empire in leading the Muslim world. But the Iran/Iraq war showed something else: that Shia Muslim Iran could never be the leader of the Sunni Muslim world. Just as the Muslim Brotherhood came out of the wreckage of the Ottoman collapse, al-Qaeda came out of the wreckage of the Iran/Iraq war. Osama bin Ladin rejected the non-violent doctrines of the Muslim Brotherhood. His political objective was to expel the British, the Americans, and the Israelis from the Mideast. Any means possible could be used, but the first step would be to trigger a revolution in some Sunni Muslim country, to replicate the success of Iran's Great Islamic Revolution. It's worth noting that al-Qaeda has eclipsed the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist group. Al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood both have organizations in many Muslim countries, but the Brotherhood is mostly viewed as a political organization, while al-Qaeda is the brand name of choice for anyone who wants to blow something up. In the Palestinian territories, there are three clearly identifiable generations, as I first described in 2006:
"Over the last several months, Al Jazeera has been given unhindered access to the largest-ever leak of confidential documents related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. There are nearly 1,700 files, thousands of pages of diplomatic correspondence detailing the inner workings of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. These documents – memos, e-mails, maps, minutes from private meetings, accounts of high level exchanges, strategy papers and even power point presentations – date from 1999 to 2010. The material is voluminous and detailed; it provides an unprecedented look inside the continuing negotiations involving high-level American, Israeli, and Palestinian Authority officials. Al Jazeera will release the documents between January 23-26th, 2011. They will reveal new details about:The Al-Jazeera coverage has been, unsurprisingly, highly sympathetic to the Palestinian point of view. Here, for example, are excerpts from an analysis by <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/palestinepapers/2011/01/2011123135633144648.html "Robert L. Grenier,"#> formerly Director of the CIA Counter-Terrorism Center (CTC), and a life member of the Council on Foreign Relations:Because of the sensitive nature of these documents, Al Jazeera will not reveal the source(s) or detail how they came into our possession. We have taken great care over an extended period of time to assure ourselves of their authenticity."
- the Palestinian Authority’s willingness to concede illegal Israeli settlements in East Jerusalem, and to be “creative” about the status of the Haram al-Sharif/Temple Mount;
- the compromises the Palestinian Authority was prepared to make on refugees and the right of return;
- details of the PA’s security cooperation with Israel;
- and private exchanges between Palestinian and American negotiators in late 2009, when the Goldstone Report was being discussed at the United Nations
"I have spent many hours reading The Palestine Papers, the recent 10-year record of the so-called Israeli-Palestinian peace process. The picture which clearly emerges from these pages of the Palestinian leadership and of the peace process negotiators themselves is that these are no quislings. For month after month, year after year, through endless, mind-numbing subcommittee meetings and plenary sessions, through interminable exchanges of letters and legal briefs, slogging from hotel meetings in Jerusalem to conferences in Egypt to “summit meetings” in Washington, the Palestinian negotiators tirelessly advocate on behalf of their people’s interests. In the face of Israeli condescension, obfuscation, and endless legalistic pettifogging they continually push back, insisting on application of relevant international law, despite the Israelis’ obvious contempt for their international obligations. They persist in the face of the Americans’ blatant advocacy on behalf of the Israelis, refusing to cave in to consistent American pressure designed to force the Palestinians to compensate for Israeli inflexibility with ever-greater concessions of their own. ... All of us approach this record burdened with our own backgrounds and experiences. I assess them as an American, and as a former government practitioner. As an American, the reaction I draw, frankly, is one of shame. My government has consistently followed the path of least resistance and of short-term political expediency, at the cost of decency, justice, and our clear, long-term interests. More pointedly, The Palestine Papers reveal us to have alternatively demanded and encouraged the Palestinian participants to take disproportionate risks for a negotiated settlement, and then to have refused to extend ourselves to help them achieve it, leaving them exposed and vulnerable. The Palestine Papers, in my view, further document an American legacy of ignominy in Palestine."I'm sure that the US government will respond to charges like this in the next few days, but there are a couple of points that I would make. First, these are ten years of papers from Palestinian sources. If Grenier had access an equivalent collection of Israeli or American papers (where's WikiLeaks when you need them?), his conclusions might have been different. But more important are the conclusions that I heard from other analysts, and I heard many of them on <#stdurl http://www.livestation.com/channels/3 "Al-Jazeera English"#> television on Sunday. The substance of the analysis was that the Palestinian Authority, its president Mahmoud Abbas, and its chief negotiator, Saeb Erekat, were acting in an illegitimate manner. They had no right to make the concessions they did -- giving chunks of Jerusalem to the Israelis, or conceding the right of return -- without the approval of the Palestinian people themselves. Grenier blames the Israelis for dismissing the Palestinian concessions without even considering them, but this commentary provides one possible explanations: The Israelis, like this commentator, may have concluded that the concessions weren't serious, since the Palestinian people would never approve of them. In fact, some of the al-Jazeera commentary that I heard today implied that the real winners of this document release would be the terrorist group Hamas, since they would gain politically, as the Palestinian Authority was discredited. Grenier claims that the Israelis have never made any concessions to the Palestinians. Well, that's obviously untrue, the clearest example being the return of the entire Gaza Strip to the Palestinians in 2005. So I don't blame either the Palestinians or the Israelis -- or the Americans. I wrote about this subject in 2003, when President Bush announced the Mideast Roadmap to Peace. (See <#hreftext ww2010.i.may01 ""Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?""#>) As I wrote at the time, and have repeated many times since then, the Arabs and the Jews will be re-fighting the bloody war that took place after the partitioning of Palestine in 1948 and the creation of the state of Israel. This is an absolute certainty, and there's nothing that any of the players can do to prevent it. All the different negotiators can do is play their parts like actors in a scripted play that can end in only one way. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "12 places to go if the world goes to hell" Every now and then, someone asks me where they should move their families to be safe, and I really don't have an answer. Now I can refer them to a <#stdurl http://www.businessinsider.com/12-places-to-go-if-the-world-goes-to-hell-2010-9?slop=1 "Business Insider"#> article that lists the 12 places to if the world goes to hell: <#inc ww2010.pic g110123b.jpg right "" "Puncak Jaya"#>
"I will assume the list is a joke. Living in some of these places could get nasty real quick - population vs resources issues. Recently I spent some time in Tierra del Fuego. Yes it is a beautiful location but the current population is dependent on resources coming in from the outside. It was originally founded as a prison colony because of the relatively hostile climate and its remote location. Currently it survives on tourism and is the major jumping off point for Antarctica. During the prison colony period much of the natural resources were depleted, the forests were clear cut, what worked then can't be done now. If a person wants to live at a subsistence, almost stone age level there are many places to go. One of the important things one should do is leave the areas between 20 and 60 degrees north latitude, that's where most people live. One should also enjoy eating fish and grubs, and not be bothered by dense clouds of blood sucking mosquitoes or flies. You can't imagine how bad it can be until you have experienced it. It has driven people to suicide."Well, something to think about. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 110 nations recognize the State of Palestine As of last week, 110 countries in the United Nations have extended diplomatic recognition to the State of Palestine, on its pre-1967 borders. <#stdurl http://www.eurasiareview.com/opinion/opinion-opinion/serving-up-palestine-one-slice-at-a-time-22012011/ "Palestine Chronicle"#> =// .h4 More homeowners are willing to walk away from under water mortgages Homeowners are increasingly willing to walk away from "under water mortgages" -- situations where the price of their home has fallen so much that the value of the home is smaller than the amount owed on the mortgage. In may, only 31% of Americans said they would consider a "strategic default," even if they can afford to pay the mortgage, while the number has now risen to 48%, according to a RealtyTrac/Trulia surve. <#stdurl http://www.mlive.com/business/west-michigan/index.ssf/2010/12/growing_number_of_homeowners_w.html "MLive"#> =// .h4 15 signs the housing market is headed for total collapse 15 signs that the US housing market is headed for complete and total collapse. Lots of graphs. <#stdurl http://www.businessinsider.com/15-signs-that-the-us-housing-market-is-headed-for-complete-and-total-collapse-2010-8?slop=1 "Business Insider"#> =// .h4 Earth cracks open up in eastern Sri Lanka <#inc ww2010.pic g110123.jpg right "" "Earth cracks in eastern Sri Lanka (Colombo Page)"#> Several cracks in the earth have opened up in eastern Sri Lanka. This looks pretty scary to me. <#stdurl http://www.colombopage.com/archive_11/Jan23_1295794619CH.php "Colombo (Sri Lanka) Page"#> =// .h4 Twilight Zone: Woman attacked by her own hand In a story that appears to be out of Twilight Zone, a woman in New Jersey is being attacked by her own hand, after an operation. <#stdurl http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12225163 "BBC"#> =// .h4 Steampunk Palin - a comic book story based on Sarah Palin 'Steampunk Palin' -- a comic book story based on Sarah Palin -- is more insane than you imagined. <#stdurl http://www.comicsalliance.com/2011/01/20/steampunk-palin-comic/ "Comics Alliance"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=629 "24-Jan-11 News -- Police join the protesters in Tunisia -- how this provides lessons for Sri Lanka"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110123 23-Jan-11 News -- International Iran nuclear talks collapse =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110123.head 23-Jan-11 News -- International Iran nuclear talks collapse =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110123.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110123.loc ww2010.weblog.log1101 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110123.date 23-Jan-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110123.txt1 Sixteen reasons why a Wall Street panic may be close =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110123.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "International Iran nuclear talks collapse" Turkey had hoped to act as mediator between Iran and the international community in reaching some kind mutual agreement on nuclear development by Iran. To that end, the Turks convened a two-day meeting of European and Iranian officials in Istanbul. The talks ended on Saturday, according to <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Iran-Nuclear-Talks-Enter-Final-Day----114412244.html "VOA,"#> with the following announcement from European Union Foreign Policy Chief Catherine Ashton:
"We had hoped to embark on a discussion of practical ways forward, and have made every effort to make that happen. I am disappointed to say that this has not been possible. "We had hoped to have a detailed and constructive discussion of those ideas. But it became clear that the Iranian side was not ready for this, unless we agreed to preconditions relating to enrichment and sanctions. Both these preconditions are not the way to proceed."Iran's top negotiator Saeed Jalili held a press conference on Saturday. Iran's <#stdurl http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8911021416 "Fars"#> news agency quotes him as follows:
"We have always stressed that talks can be useful, successful and progressive only when they are based on a common logic. If you decide to use another instrument instead of common logic, this would result in dictation and not negotiation, and dictation does not deserve a kind of talks based on the nations' cultures. On the very same basis, we proposed the Istanbul talks in the Geneva meeting because we believed that a majority of talks over international issues can be held on the basis of the Islamic civilization. Our Geneva agreement included several key points, including talks for cooperation on common points. This was our agreement in Geneva, which surely inspires everybody's mind with the idea that when cooperation on common points is the agenda of talks, such negotiations should advance and be progressive. When the decision has been made to talk over common points and talk for cooperation, then such talks can certainly be progressive, successful and constructive. ... [The talks can be successful] when the requirements of this common logic are clear. When you speak of cooperation, you must avoid whatever causes confrontation and animosity towards a nation, when you speak of cooperation on common points, you must surely respect the nations' rights. What has been enshrined in the international rules and regulations in a straightforward manner provides the necessary grounds for talks. I don't think that if you tell the international community and the world that talks should be based on the nations' rights, the world would interpret it as a precondition for talks. Respect for the nations' rights provides the necessary grounds for negotiations. Common logic can help provide a constructive ground for more talks and cooperation. On the same basis, we came to Istanbul with a positive look and initiative and with certain proposals. We thought and do think that Iran's capacities today are undeniable and can provide very good opportunities for cooperation at the international level and we entered the talks with a really constructive view and presented our proposals. Jalili said Tehran has stressed during the talks that international rules and regulations should form the basis of a common logic for talks while both sides should respect the nations' rights and avoid wrong attitudes in the course of negotiations. ... A rigid cooperation should be launched among nations to prevent proliferation of nuclear weapons. One of the basic discussions emphasized in these talks was the need for the recognition of the NPT member states. [i.e., states that have signed the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty.] The NPT members are entitled to certain rights, and there should be a balance between the member states' rights and undertakings. Lack of balance between these two would hurt the NPT. These are not preconditions, rather they are requirements for talks and discussions."And so, another international meeting has turned out to be an almost total waste of time, except to provide proof that these meetings are an almost total waste of time. The thing to be watching in the weeks to come is how Israel will react to this collapse. International observers have expressed concern that the Americans or the Israelis will launch a military strike against Iran's nuclear installations. In fact, <#stdurl http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/141874 "Israel National News,"#> in a story on the collapse of Iran talks, quotes former British PM Tony Blair as saying the following on Friday:
"Extremism can't be managed. It has to be confronted and changed. Iran is a looming challenge. It is negative and destabilizing. It supports terrorists,” Blair said, adding that Britain needed to stand as strongly against Iran as it had against Iraq. "I say this to you with all of the passion I possibly can; at some point the West has to get out of what I think is a wretched policy or posture of apology for believing that we are causing what the Iranians are doing, or what these extremists are doing, that we have to get our head out of the sand. They disagree fundamentally with our way of life and will carry on unless met with determination and, if necessary, force."And so, Dear Reader, anything might happen at this point. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Sixteen reasons why a Wall Street panic may be close" "Higgenbotham" in the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2&p=7624#p7621 "Financial Topics"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum was asked why he believes that a Wall Street panic could be near. Here are his reasons, from most important to least important:
Date DJIA (Change) (% of trend) (% of 1929 high) ----------------- -------------- ---------------- ---------------- Mon 1929-10-21 320.91( -3.71%) (213% of 150.23) ( 84% of 1929-09-03) Tue 1929-10-22 326.51( +1.75%) (217% of 150.25) ( 85% of 1929-09-03) Wed 1929-10-23 305.85( -6.33%) (203% of 150.26) ( 80% of 1929-09-03) Thu 1929-10-24 299.47( -2.09%) (199% of 150.28) ( 78% of 1929-09-03) Black Thursday Fri 1929-10-25 301.22( +0.58%) (200% of 150.30) ( 79% of 1929-09-03) --------------------------------------------------------------------- Mon 1929-10-28 260.64(-13.47%) (173% of 150.36) ( 68% of 1929-09-03) Black Monday Tue 1929-10-29 230.07(-11.73%) (152% of 150.38) ( 60% of 1929-09-03) Wed 1929-10-30 258.47(+12.34%) (171% of 150.40) ( 67% of 1929-09-03) Thu 1929-10-31 273.51( +5.82%) (181% of 150.41) ( 71% of 1929-09-03) (half-day) --------------------------------------------------------------------- Mon 1929-11-04 257.68( -5.79%) (171% of 150.49) ( 67% of 1929-09-03) Wed 1929-11-06 232.13( -9.92%) (154% of 150.53) ( 60% of 1929-09-03) Thu 1929-11-07 238.19( +2.61%) (158% of 150.55) ( 62% of 1929-09-03) Fri 1929-11-08 236.53( -0.70%) (157% of 150.57) ( 62% of 1929-09-03) --------------------------------------------------------------------- Mon 1929-11-11 220.39( -6.82%) (146% of 150.62) ( 57% of 1929-09-03) Tue 1929-11-12 209.74( -4.83%) (139% of 150.64) ( 55% of 1929-09-03) Wed 1929-11-13 198.69( -5.27%) (131% of 150.66) ( 52% of 1929-09-03) Thu 1929-11-14 217.28( +9.36%) (144% of 150.68) ( 57% of 1929-09-03) Fri 1929-11-15 228.73( +5.27%) (151% of 150.70) ( 60% of 1929-09-03) ---------------------------------------------------------------------You can see the wild ups and downs, with the up days causing people to think that the worst was over, and the down days generating even more panic. In the period from September 3 to November 15, the market fell 40%. Wall Street investors today are in dreamland, thinking that they're protected from a similar crash.
"Vulgar external appearance and vulgar behavior is a straight path to misery. To empty `one-night stands.' To short marriages followed by rat-like divorces. To children with broken fates. To loneliness and madness. To catastrophes in life."He added that a woman who is "barely wearing any clothes or is painted like a clown" in the hopes of meeting a man risks meeting a "drunk idiot" or at best a "sober idiot." Chaplin, a top aide to Patriarch Kirill, was responding to criticisms for statements that he made last month, in the wake of racial riots in central Moscow:
"If she wears a mini-skirt, she might provoke not only a man from the Caucasus, but a Russian as well. If she is also drunk, she is all the more likely to provoke them. If she is also actively seeking contact and is then surprised that this contact ends in rape, then she is all the more wrong."Chaplin's remarks triggered the usual outrage from feminist groups, but this statement, widely interpreted as implying that Muslims from the Caucasus are more likely to rape Russian women than Russian men are, has provoked charges of racism. <#inc ww2010.pic caucas7b.gif center "" "Northern Caucasus -- Russia's southern provinces - Sochi 2014 logo at left is site of 2014 winter Olympics"#> The Moscow riots had resulted from surging xenophobic tensions between Orthodox Christian ethnic Russians and mostly Muslim ethnic groups from the North Caucasus (Russia's southern provinces). They were triggered by the shooting death of a Russian football (soccer) fan during a fight between football fans and Caucasian migrants. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e101214 ""14-Dec-10 News -- Medvedev warns that nationalist pogroms are destabilizing Russia.""#>) =// http://bigpeace.com/jxenakis/2010/12/16/moscow-police-arrest-hundreds-to-head-off-ethnic-violence/ =// Moscow Police Arrest Hundreds to Head Off Ethnic Violence The controversy over Chaplin's statements comes after a year when Moscow's position in its North Caucasus provinces has worsened dramatically, according to an analysis from <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37324 "Jamestown."#> The number of militant actions against Russian authorities, as well as the number of people killed, rose substantially in 2010. Moscow's promises to invest large sums of money in the North Caucasus economy were not kept, with resulting increases in poverty and unemployment. The dominant factor in the deterioration of Moscow's position in the North Caucasus is the intensified armed resistance movement. While in 2009, the violence and unrest was concentrated mainly in tiny Ingushetia, according to the article, it spread to several much larger provinces in 2010. This has been particularly true among the Circassian ethnic group, who are outraged that Russia is holding the 2014 Olympics in the Sochi resort on the Black Sea. It was a Circassian stronghold until a well-remembered genocidal battle in 1864, where Russians exterminated many Circassians and expelled the rest. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e101030 ""30-Oct-10 News -- Caucasus terrorism / politics becomes embroiled in 2014 Olympics.""#>) =// North Caucasus Terrorism Becomes Embroiled with 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi =// http://bigpeace.com/jxenakis/2010/11/04/north-caucasus-terrorism-becomes-embroiled-with-2014-winter-olympics-in-sochi/ In 2010, evidence mounted that nationalistic Circassian militant groups have become more active, bombing a train near Sochi in November. Caches of weapons have repeatedly been found in the Sochi area, and interethnic and inter-ideological tensions have been growing. In addition to a growing insurgency, there's also been a generational change in the ideological Islamist portion of the insurgency, according to a Russian analysis described by <#stdurl http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2011/01/window-on-eurasia-moscow-losing-battle.html "Paul Goble."#> Moscow is losing the battle for the "hearts and minds" of the Caucasians. The middle-aged Islamists of the last decade are being supplanted by young people who are being recruited for the long term. Some 1500 young people from Dagestan alone have gone to study in foreign Muslim centers, and about 500 have already returned, according to the article. So we see a violent confrontation building up on both sides. In Moscow, we have violent ethnic Russians targeting migrants from the Caucasus, and in the North Caucasus provinces, we have violent young militants targeting Russian authorities. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is the buildup to a major genocidal civil war. It's somewhat comical that analysts are surprised that Moscow's position in the North Caucasus deteriorated in 2010, since it would have been a shock if the opposite had happened. This is a trend that's been in place for over a decade, in a region where bloody wars have been fought between Russians and Caucasians for centuries, so you can be certain that the situation will continue to deteriorate in 2011. Returning now to Archpriest Vsevolod Chaplin's remarks about a dress code for women, this is consistent with another trend: Increased modesty in women. During a generational Awakening era (like America in the 1960s), society demands gender equality, and moves in the direction of putting individual rights above survival of the society. In a generational Crisis era, like today, society increasingly places the survival of the society and its way of life above individual rights, and men and women adopt more stereotypical gender roles. See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e041011 ""'It's going to be the 1950s all over again'""#> for more information. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Former Haiti president Jean-Bertrand Aristide coming home Yesterday we reported that former dictator Jean-Claude "Baby Doc" Duvalier had returned to Haiti, amid the chaos, the violence, the earthquake destruction, and the cholera. But now another former leader, Jean-Bertrand Aristide, plans to return, "to contribute to serving my Haitian sisters and brothers as a simple citizen in the field of education." These people are coming out of the woodwork. What fun! <#stdurl http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/20/world/americas/20haiti.html "NY Times"#> =// Iran says goodbye to 10 cent gasoline Iranians say goodbye to 10 cent per litre gasoline, as energy and food subsidies are phased out. <#stdurl http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/iranians-say-goodbye-to-10-cent-gasoline/ "Reuters"#> =// .h4 Amazon.com is selling a gastric bypass surgery kit Amazon.com is selling a gastric bypass surgery kit, for just $264, cheap at twice the price. <#stdurl http://www.mynorthwest.com/category/local_news_articles/20110117/Amazon-selling-gastric-bypass-surgery-kit/ "KIRO Radio (Seattle)"#> =// .h4 Uncensored Playboy Magazine coming to IPad in March Uncensored Playboy Magazine coming to IPad in March. <#stdurl http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/217074/uncensored_playboy_magazine_coming_to_ipad_in_march.html "PC World"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=623 "20-Jan-11 News -- Top Russian Orthodox priest warns women about rape by men from Caucasus"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110119 19-Jan-11 News -- Haiti's former dictator returns for a visit =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110119.head 19-Jan-11 News -- Haiti's former dictator returns for a visit =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110119.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110119.loc ww2010.weblog.log1101 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110119.date 19-Jan-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110119.txt1 South Korea and U.S. discuss increasing limits on ballistic missiles =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110119.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Haiti's former dictator returns for a visit" In the midst of discontent and violence resulting from an allegedly rigged election last month, surrounded by the devastation of a major earthquake a year ago, along with a cholera epidemic that's still killing people living in tent camps, former dictator Jean-Claude "Baby Doc" Duvalier dropped from the sky, like a deus ex machina, on Sunday. Duvalier is the son of Francois "Papa Doc" Duvalier, who ruled Haiti as dictator from 1957 until his death in 1971. At that point, Jean-Claude took over, where he was responsible for jailing, torturing and murdering thousands of people, according to the <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/18/haiti-baby-doc-duvalier-court "Guardian."#> Finally, he was forced from office in 1986, and he's been living in France ever since. Duvalier flew into Port-au-Prince, the capital of Haiti, on Sunday, with no advance warning and no explanation for why he was returning, though it's thought that he wants to take advantage of the confusion following the accusations of a rigged election, and perhaps return to power himself. However, he said, "I'm not here for politics. I'm here for the reconstruction of Haiti." On Tuesday, police went to Duvalier's hotel and took him to court, where he was charged with government corruption, embezzlement of funds, money laundering, and assassination. These are the same that Duvalier was charged with in 2008, but the case files were lost when the courthouse was destroyed in the 2010 earthquake, according to the <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704678004576089862810900474.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>. One of Duvalier's lawyers said that the government hadn't been able to reconstruct the legal dossier that was destroyed in the earthquake, and that "They have nothing." The real danger in Haiti is a new civil war fought along the fault line between the two distinct ethnic groups -- the Creole-speaking dark-skinned "noirs" or blacks, the descendants of slaves imported from Africa by the French colonizers in the 1700s, and the French-speaking light-skinned "mulattoes," resulting from intermixing of French and slave bloods. The mulattoes are a market-dominant minority: under 5% of the population, but controlling over 50% of the nation's wealth. Haiti is deep into a generational Crisis era, and so a full-scale civil war could begin at any time. This is being held off by the presence of international peacekeeping forces, as well has massive amounts of international food aid. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Tunisia's 'unity government' is near collapse Tunisia's government is near collapse again, after four ministers resigned from the one-day old "unity government." Thousands of people protested in Tunis, and the protests have gotten more violent. Protesters said, "The dictator is gone, but the dictatorship is still here," referring to the fact that many people in the unity government were part of the old administration. <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Tunisias-President-PM-Quit-Ruling-Party-114148909.html "VOA"#> =// .h4 South Korea and U.S. discuss increasing limits on ballistic missiles South Korea has been operating under a treaty with the U.S. that limits the range and power of South Korea's ballistic missiles. The limitations were put in place in 1979 to prevent an arms race between South and North Korea. However, North Korea's capability already fax exceed the maximum permitted in the South, and so talks are on to discuss revising the 1979 agreement. <#stdurl http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/01/19/2011011900629.html "Chosun Ilbo"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=622 "19-Jan-11 News -- Haiti's former dictator returns for a visit"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110118 18-Jan-11 News -- Municipal bonds appear to be in free fall =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110118.head 18-Jan-11 News -- Municipal bonds appear to be in free fall =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110118.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110118.loc ww2010.weblog.log1101 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110118.date 18-Jan-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110118.txt1 China to station troops in North Korea =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110118.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Municipal bonds appear to be in free fall" <#inc ww2010.pic g110114.gif right "" "MUB - Muncipal bond fund corresponding to the S&P Muncipal Bond Index (Bloomberg)"#> As shown by the adjoining municipal bond index graph from <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=MUB:US "Bloomberg,"#> muncipal bonds have been crashing since November, and appear to be in free fall. Municipal bonds are a popular investment since, in most cases, any money earned is free of federal and state income taxes. They're issued by muncipalities as a way of borrowing money for such things as roads, schools, sewage treatment plants, and so forth. The fall in the value of municipal bonds indicates that investors are increasingly afraid that many municipalities are going to go bankrupt, and the bonds will go into default. Normally, few people pay attention to the municipal bond market, but this time there's a lot of interest because analyst Meredith Whitney appeared on the CBS show <#stdurl http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/12/19/60minutes/main7166220.shtml "60 minutes"#> a month ago, where she said:
"There's not a doubt in my mind that you will see a spate of municipal bond defaults ... You could see 50 sizeable defaults. Fifty to 100 sizeable defaults. More. This will amount to hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of defaults."I saw Whitney on CNBC last week, and she was talking about how much anger is directed at her because she makes predictions that people don't want to hear. (I know the feeling very well.) Whitney is famous for having predicting the failures of CitiBank and other large banks in 2007, at a time when analysts on CNBC were saying that the idea that these banks would fail was utter nonsense. Since Whitney turned out to be right, she's now taken more seriously. Whitney was ridiculed for her prediction about CitiBank, and now she's being similarly ridiculed for her predictions about municipal bonds. Her biggest critic is Bill Gross of PIMCO, the largest bond fund in the world, who disagreed with Whitney, according to <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-01-12/pimco-s-gross-clashes-with-whitney-over-municipal-bond-outlook.html "Bloomberg"#>:
"Ultimately, municipal bankruptcies will be at a lower level. I don’t subscribe to the theory that there will be lots of them."Despite the fact that municipal bonds appear to be crashing, some analysts are still recommending that investors buy municipal bonds, calling the current crash a "buying opportunity." For example, Deborah Levine, an analyst for <#stdurl http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-investors-shouldnt-break-with-muni-bonds-2011-01-14?reflink=MW_news_stmp "MarketWatch,"#> says that "History is on investors’ side when it comes to municipal-bond defaults. From 1999 to 2009, only 10 rated entities failed to make debt-service payments, resulting in an average annual default rate of 0.04%, according to Fitch Ratings." <#inc ww2010.pic g110102.gif right "" "Home price index versus long-term trend (WSJ)"#> People who say such things aren't paying attention. We reported recently on a study of the Case-Shiller home price index by Peter Schiff in the <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304173704575578190261574342.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>, which indicates that home prices have been increasing much faster than the historical trend during the last ten years, and that home prices are still going to fall sharply, by as much as 30%. Since muncipalities depend on housing values for most of their revenue, the fall in housing values will cause Whitney's prediction to come true. In fact, her prediction will probably turn out to be optimistic. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the global financial crisis has only begun, and the collapse of the municipal bond market will be just one part of it. Stocks today are still overpriced by over 150%, as described in <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e100803 ""Updating the 'real value' of the stock market.""#> Thus, as bad as it's been, far worse is to come. It's impossible to predict what will trigger this crisis, but a municipal bond crash is one possibility. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Tunisia announces interim government Violence in Tunisia seems to have simmered down on Monday. The country's interim prime minister announced a national unity government, and promised to hold elections within six months. <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-tunisia-politics-20110118,0,3744911.story "LA Times"#> =// .h4 China to station troops in North Korea China is in talks to station Chinese troops in North Korea, nominally to protect Chinese port facilities. But the location would give access to the Sea of Japan, and would allow intervention in North Korea in case of instability. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5ijUliMg55CWwoJRuioSfwiNgYlyQ?docId=CNG.8178ab0795262e58b0e2f027a051b2ff.541 "AFP"#> =// .h4 Palestinians to submit resolution to UN condemning Israeli settlements The Palestinian Authority is expected to submit to the United Nations Security Council its long awaited resolution to declare Israeli settlements illegal and demand a halt to their construction. <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/palestinians-to-submit-un-draft-condemning-israeli-settlements-this-week-1.337557 "Associated Press"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=621 "18-Jan-11 News -- Municipal bonds appear to be in free fall"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110117 17-Jan-11 News -- Gun battles erupt in Tunisia amid fears of regional instability =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110117.head 17-Jan-11 News -- Gun battles erupt in Tunisia amid fears of regional instability =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110117.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110117.loc ww2010.weblog.log1101 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110117.date 17-Jan-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110117.txt1 IBM's supercomputer wins practice round against Jeopardy! champions =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110117.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Gun battles erupt in Tunisia amid fears of regional instability" Gunfights erupted in major Tunisia cities on Sunday, two days after president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fled the country from deadly protests, after 23 years in power. It appears that the gun battles were between the army and security forces loyal to Ben Ali, according to <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/01/2011116191514949896.html "Al-Jazeera."#> The gunfights seemed to die down later in the evening. There's widespread looting in the capital city, Tunis, according to the <#stdurl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/tunisia/8263035/Tunisian-army-fight-running-street-battles-with-gunmen-loyal-to-the-ousted-president.html "Telegraph."#> Food and fuel are in short supply, and with world food prices at historic highs, chaos is expected to continue. However, the greater fear is that the instability will spread around the region, especially to other Arab countries that have a history of corruption and repression. Israel's Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is quoted by the <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=203796 "Jerusalem Post"#> as saying, "The region in which we live is unstable. We see this at several points throughout the Middle East. I would say that there is a great island of instability in the geographic expanse in which we live. We hope that there will be quiet and security." <#inc ww2010.pic g110116.jpg center "" "Man burns himself to death in Algeria (Guardian)"#> There were riots in Algeria, and a man burned himself to death in an apparent echo of a suicide that began the Tunisian protests, according to <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/16/tunisia-protests-suicide-algeria-arab "Guardian."#> The <#stdurl http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/16/weekinreview/16shadid.html?ref=global-home "NY Times"#> quotes leftist Beirut journalist Alfadel Chalak as follows:
"What we are witnessing is the collapse of the Arab state. Wherever we look across the Arab world, we see wars. We see civil wars, wars among ethnicities, wars between sects and ethnicities, wars among sects, and wars among authorities, sects, ethnicities and the poor. Wars among an Arab world that doesn’t have an elite or leadership that draws strategies and tactics that lead to salvation. Therefore, it looks as if we are going to witness for years and maybe decades to come a great deal of devastation, destruction and killing."This is particularly true in North Africa (the Islamic Maghreb), according to Fordham University professor John P. Entelis, writing for <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/01/16/entelis.north.africa.intifada/index.html?hpt=C1 "CNN."#> "From Morocco to Egypt, North Africa has recently been rocked by a series of violent disturbances that have left scores dead, government leaders shaken and outside observers puzzled by the scope, timing and intensity of upheavals in a region normally viewed as stable, moderate and pro-Western." As I wrote <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e110116 "yesterday,"#> countries like Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, in generational Awakening eras, will not have prolonged violence beyond political chaos. But countries like Egypt, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia, in generational Crisis eras, may react with civil wars of their own. As for Tunisia itself, the country's last generational crisis war was the Algerian war for independence that climaxed in 1962, so Tunisia is in a generational Unraveling era. Thus, it's almost impossible for the violence to spiral into a full-scale civil war. However, one reader, posting in the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=618&p=7558#p7557 "Generational Dynamics Forum,"#> disagreed with me, saying that Tunisia's last crisis war was WW II. You can read my response, which I won't repeat here, but this is the kind of problem that requires a lot more research. If you are familiar with Tunisia's history, especially if you've lived in Tunisia, then I would be interested in hearing from you on this subject, either through a comment or in the forum. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "IBM's supercomputer wins practice round against Jeopardy! champions" IBM's Watson supercomputer played a practice round of Jeopardy! against two former champions of the game and won handily, according to <#stdurl http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/ibms-watson-wins-jeopardy-practice-round-can-humans-hang/43601 "ZDNet."#> The actual contest will appear on television in February. As I wrote last month, this event, if successful, marks a significant advance towards computer intelligence and the Singularity, the point in time, around 2030, when computers become more intelligent and creative and capable than human beings. For details about history and algorithms, see <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e101227 ""27-Dec-10 News -- IBM vs Jeopardy! brings robotic warfare and the Singularity closer.""#> The following video from <#stdurl http://www.viddler.com/explore/engadget/videos/2393/ "Engadget"#> is fun to watch. It shows the practice round, and you can see how Watson beat the two champions.
"After 23 years of his corrupt and authoritarian reign, the president has at last bowed to the serious and widespread popular pressure. Television footage around the world is showing tens of thousands of Tunisians disgruntled with Ben Ali’s tyranny, and dozens of citizens have died since the rioting and demonstrations began. This new picture of Tunisia could not clash more with the image that Ben Ali pushed for the last two decades; he regaled the world with tales of the honeyed and perfumed existence of his people. The portrait – sketched similarly in too many other Arab nations – was never convincing. Aside from the economic hardship and near-total absence of human rights, Tunisians had to suffer silently as Ben Ali, his wife and many relatives became grossly – and illegally – wealthy. Ben Ali threw money at media campaigns to sugarcoat his country’s many ills and instead attract tourists to see its alluring shores; however, ignoring problems usually fails to make them go away. In the case of Tunisia and many other Arab states, the unspoken troubles have only grown. ... Other Arab monarchs and presidents-for-life should learn the lesson unfolding on the streets of Tunisia: It is past time to institute democratic reforms in the Arab world, and the region’s leaders should do so before it becomes too late for them, as it has with Ben Ali."The Tunisian uprising may well have lit a fire that could spread around the Arab world. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the effect of that fire in each country will depend on its generational era. In countries like Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, in generational Awakening eras, the Tunisian uprising may trigger riots and political chaos, but no prolonged violence. In countries like Egypt, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia, in generational Crisis eras, the uprising may trigger sustained violence, even a civil war. My guess is that many Arab governments are hoping that the excitement from the Tunisian uprising will die quickly. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "NY Times: Stuxnet attack on Iran was a joint U.S.-Israeli project" Stuxnet, a major computer virus, attacked Iran's nuclear power plants last year, causing centrifuges to spin wildly out of control and destroy themselves. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e100927 ""27-Sep-10 News -- Iran's nuclear plant attacked by Stuxnet computer virus.""#>) However, the origin of Stuxnet has been a mystery. The virus was too sophisticated to have been done by a lone hacker in his basement. In fact, reverse engineering on the virus indicated that it needed so many resources that only a government could have designed and launched it. There were many suspects, including the U.S., Israel and China, but it's remained a mystery. Now the <#stdurl http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/16/world/middleeast/16stuxnet.html "NY Times"#> is reporting that the Stuxnet virus is the result of a joint project by U.S. and Israeli experts. The research was done at Israel's Dimona nuclear power plant, whose existence has not been admitted. Stuxnet is thought to be a huge success, because it set back Iran's development of nuclear weapons by 2-3 years, thus delaying the need for a miltary attack on Iran's nuclear power plants. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=619 "16-Jan-11 News -- Effects of Tunisia uprising spread around the Arab world"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110115 15-Jan-11 News -- Tunisia's president flees country after mass protests =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110115.head 15-Jan-11 News -- Tunisia's president flees country after mass protests =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110115.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110115.loc ww2010.weblog.log1101 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110115.date 15-Jan-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110115.txt1 Greece's ratings are cut to junk status =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110115.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Tunisia's president flees country after mass protests" The Arab world is shocked by the overthrow of Tunisia's dictator President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who had held an iron grip on power since 1987. Ben Ali was forced to flee the country after an unprecedented popular uprising mobbed the capital Tunis with protesters, leading to riots and violent confrontations with the police, according to <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9KOCJC80.htm "Associated Press."#> <#inc ww2010.mappic tunisia.gif right "" "Tunisia (Source: CIA Fact Book)"#> The riots were triggered by the mid-December suicide of a vegetable salesman when police confiscated the fruits and vegetables he was selling without a permit. The riots turned into food riots for a while, as the worldwide price of food has been surging to historically high levels, but they soon turned into a general protest against the government, because of the poor economy and high unemployment. The departure of Ben Ali leaves open the question of "What's next?" There's really nowhere to go now for Tunisia's caretaker government, which is controlled by Ben Ali's ministers. The price of food is still at historic highs, unemployment is still high, and the economy is still poor. Thus, it seems that there's a pretty good chance that the violence will continue, and may get a lot worse. Tunisia's last generational crisis war was the Algerian war for independence that climaxed in 1962, so Tunisia is in a generational Unraveling era. Thus, it's almost impossible for the violence to spiral into a full-scale civil war. The situation in Tunisia reminds me of the violence that broke out in Kenya at the end of 2007, because Kenya at that time was at approximately the same point on the generational timeline (51 years after the end of their last crisis war) as Tunisia is today (49 years). (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e080102 ""Post-election massacre in Kenya raises concerns of tribal war.""#>) The violence in Kenya became explosive for a while, resulting in numerous atrocities and massacres. But, as expected, the violence fizzled out after a few days. That would be the pattern that we might expect in Tunisia today. It's possible that the violence will grow, but I would expect it to fizzle out in a relatively short period. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Impact on other Muslim countries" There has been some very interesting media commentary surrounding the overthrown of the Ben Ali -- namely that the same thing might happen in other Arab countries. Here's an interesting example from the <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/14/AR2011011405084.html "Washington Post:"#>
"Tunisia is a typical Middle East country in that its population is composed largely of young people. Half the population is under 25 years of age and so have known no leader other than Ben Ali, who is only Tunisia's second president since it gained independence from France in 1956. For decades, a host of Arab dictators have justified their endless terms in office by pointing to Islamists waiting in the wings to take over. Having both inflated the egos and power of Islamists and scared Western allies into accepting stability over democracy, those leaders were left to comfortably sweep "elections." Ben Ali was elected to a fifth term with 89.62 percent of the vote in 2009. All around him is a depressingly familiar pattern. Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi (68 years old) has been in power since 1969; Yemen's Ali Abdullah Saleh (64) has ruled since 1978 and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak (82) since 1981. Algeria's Abdelaziz Bouteflika (73) is a relative newcomer, having been in power only since 1999. Not so much fathers as grandfathers of their nations, these autocrats cling to office - and are increasingly out of touch with their young populaces. No doubt, every Arab leader has watched Tunisia's revolt in fear while citizens across the Arab world watch in solidarity, elated at that rarity: open revolution. "Goosebumps all over. I can't believe I lived through an Arab revolution!! Thank you, Tunisia!" Gigi Ibrahim, a young Egyptian woman whose handle is Gsquare86 tweeted. "The power of the masses is capable of toppling any dictatorship. Today was Tunisia. Tomorrow is Egypt, Jordan. LONG LIVE REVOLUTION!"Indeed, these mass protests are already spreading. On Wednesday, thousands of people demonstrated in Amman and other cities of Jordan to protest rising food and commodity prices, unemployment and poverty, according to <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/01/20111141219337111.html "Al-Jazeera."#> However, there was no violence. In fact, with food prices rising to historical levels, there may well be an increasing level of unrest in the developing world. If a man is unable to feed himself and his family, he will not just sit around twiddling his thumbs. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Violence breaks out in Haiti slum A running street battle between police and protesters broke out in a slum district of Haiti's capital on Friday. Unlike Tunisia, Haiti is deep into a generational Crisis era, and so a civil war is a real possibility. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70D5R420110114 "Reuters"#> =// .h4 Greece's ratings are cut to junk status Fitch Ratings downgraded Greece's ratings to BB+, which is junk status. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-14/greece-s-long-term-debt-ratings-are-cut-to-junk-by-fitch-outlook-negative.html "Bloomberg"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=618 "15-Jan-11 News -- Tunisia's president flees country after mass protests"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110114 14-Jan-11 News -- Israeli troops on high alert after Lebanon's government collapses =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110114.head 14-Jan-11 News -- Israeli troops on high alert after Lebanon's government collapses =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110114.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110114.loc ww2010.weblog.log1101 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110114.date 14-Jan-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110114.txt1 Will the U.S. military reenter Lebanon? =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110114.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Israeli troops on high alert after Lebanon's government collapses" Israel Defense Forces (IDF) troops stationed near the Lebanon border were put on high alert on Thursday, following the collapse of Lebanon's government on Wednesday. The fear was that the political turmoil might cause renewed violence that could spill over into Israel, according to <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/idf-troops-on-alert-following-collapse-of-lebanon-government-1.336788 "Haaretz."#> However, no reserves have been called up, as would be necessary if violence were immediately threatened. The Prime Minister of Lebanon is Saad Hariri, the son of the national hero Rafiq Hariri, who was killed in 2005 by a terrorist bomb. (See <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e050216 ""Massive Beirut explosion killing Rafiq Hariri puts Lebanon into state of shock" for more details."#>) The terrorist group Hizbollah, supported by Syria and Iran, was assumed to have perpetrated the assassination. The United Nations appointed a "Special Tribunal for Lebanon" (STL), whose purpose was to investigate and determine guilt. The investigation is now complete. The final report of the STL has been completed. The conclusions have not yet been made public, but it's widely expected that some high-level Hizbollah figures are going to be indicted. In order to derail the STL report, the political wing of Hizbollah pulled its members out of Said Hariri's governing coalition on Wednesday, just when Hariri was visiting Washington, causing the government to collapse. Hariri is now the "caretaker prime minister," until a new government can be formed. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Will the United States reenter Lebanon?" According to <#stdurl http://www.debka.com/article/20538/ "Debka,"#> an analyst group that has contacts within Israeli intelligence but sometimes gets things wrong, the U.S. is considering getting involved in Lebanon for the first time since the 1980. At that time, American peacekeeping troops were in Lebanon, but in 1984, the bombing of the American embassy in Beirut killed 19 top CIA agents, and the bombing of the Marine headquarters killed 241 American troops. According to the Debka report, the American military will "use force to defend the Saad Hariri government in Lebanon and if necessary deploy aerial forces and the marines to avert a Hizballah takeover in Beirut." According to the report, "Over the weekend, the US president ordered US vessels to buttress the Sixth Fleet stationed in the eastern Mediterranean with the USS Enterprise carrier and its strike group with 6,000 sailors and marines aboard and 80 fighter-bombers." In addition, "The French fleet was also ordered to bolster its naval strength opposite Lebanon." However, the Pentagon is denying the Debka report, and saying that no American warships had been sent to the waters off Lebanon, according to <#stdurl http://www.naharnet.com/domino/tn/NewsDesk.nsf/0/DE54ED80527C462BC225781700721516?OpenDocument "Naharnet (Lebanon)"#> and <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jN2AyUHJuSoDhiJxxY7xUgPCNU0Q?docId=CNG.b7ab9f89dccc945f6545ca445a6fac5a.441 "AFP."#> The Pentagon spokesman added, "We continue to monitor the situation very closely," It's always difficult to know what to make of these Debka reports. On the one hand, they're highly authoritative, but on the other hand, they've often predicted imminent attacks by or on Iran, by or on Israel, and by or on Gaza, almost none of which have materialized. Lebanon itself is in a generational Awakening era, and so an internal (civil) war is impossible, and indeed, Hizobollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah is categorically saying that the government collapse won't lead to civil war, according to <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/hezbollah-chief-nasrallah-there-won-t-be-a-civil-war-in-lebanon-1.336860?localLinksEnabled=false "Haaretz."#> However, there are still plenty of opportunities for war. Israel and Hizbollah already fought a war in 2006, and now Iran and Syria are playing a game of <#stdurl http://www.ericberne.com/games/games_people_play_LYAHF.htm "Let's You and Him Fight"#> with a re-armed Hizbollah and a newly confident Israel and, just as happens with the sexual game, the erotic lure of one or both parties finishing up what they started in 2006 may be irresistible. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=617 "14-Jan-11 News -- Israeli troops on high alert after Lebanon's government collapses"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110113 13-Jan-11 News -- Test flight embarrasses China's Hu Jintao in front of Secretary Gates =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110113.head 13-Jan-11 News -- Test flight embarrasses China's Hu Jintao in front of Secretary Gates =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110113.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110113.loc ww2010.weblog.log1101 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110113.date 13-Jan-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110113.txt1 Baltic Dry Index seems to be crashing again =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110113.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "J-20 Test flight embarrasses China's Hu Jintao in front of Secretary Gates" China's President Hu Jintao was possibly hugely embarrassed on Tuesday during a meeting with US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates in Beijing. <#inc ww2010.pic g110112.jpg center "" "Robert Gates and Hu Jintao on Tuesday (VOA)"#> The People's Liberation Army (PLA) conducted a major test of their J-20 stealth fighter on Tuesday. That alone would be a big signal to both Hu and Gates, given that it occurred just before their meeting. But even worse, Hu appeared not to be even aware that the test had occurred when Gates asked him about it, according to the <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704428004576075042571461586.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>. Hu later acknowledged that the test flight had occurred, and assured Gates that the test was not directed at the U.S. The sequence of events indicates that hawkish elements in the PLA are taking control of military policy, overriding Hu's civilian control. During their meeting, Gates also said that within five years, North Korea will likely have a nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the United States, according to <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/east-pacific/Gates-Says-North-Korea-Will-Be-Threat-to-US-within-5-Years-113270684.html "VOA."#> Gates asked Hu for help with this situation but, not surprisingly, no such help was offered. According to an analysis in the <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/11/AR2011011107271.html "Washington Post,"#> the surprise flight test incident illustrates the weakness of Hu as a leader:
"The bizarre drama that Gates - a former U.S. intelligence chief who has dealt with China for decades - witnessed highlights a significant trend in Chinese politics as the fourth handover of power in communist China's 62-year history approaches: the increasingly assertive voice of the People's Liberation Army in the country's foreign policy. Throughout the past year, the PLA has been a catalyst in a series of national security crises. Chinese fishing vessels have clashed with Japanese and South Korean coast guard cutters near disputed islands in the Western Pacific. PLA officers have engaged in verbal fisticuffs with senior American officials from Singapore to Beijing. And PLA officers have appeared on Chinese state television, enunciating, much to the chagrin of China's senior diplomats, what appears to be an ever-expanding list of China's core interests. ... To that end, the PLA has found a perfect foil in Hu - considered the weakest leader in communist China's short history, said Andrei Chang, editor of Kanwa Asian Defense magazine. Chang said Hu's apparent ignorance of the test was part of a "soap opera" that is unfolding as China changes leaders. Hu is slated to step down, and China's vice president, Xi Jinping, who met with Gates on Monday, is expected to succeed him."Calling Hu "the weakest leader in communist China's short history" is an interesting statement, but one that I fundamentally disagree with in the form stated. A more accurate description is that Hu is a fine leader but an anachronism, someone who would have been more successful ten years ago. Hu, born in 1942, is a member of China's "Artist generation," having been born and raised during China's last crisis war, Mao's bloody Communist Revolution that climaxed in 1949. As such, he is like America's Silent Generation -- people who are mediators and conciliators and implementers, but not decision makers. (See <#hreftext ww2010.i.basics ""Basics of Generational Dynamics.""#>) Hu would never lead China's central committee to declare war on the U.S., but once such a decision were made, he would implement it ruthlessly, as I described in my 2006 report, <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e060420 ""Eerie similarity: Chinese President Hu Jintao and Donald Rumsfeld.""#> Four years have passed since I wrote that report, and since that time, China's "Nomad generation," like America's Generation-X, have moved powerfully into middle management positions throughout society. And just as the West's Generation-X perpetrated the massive fraud in real estate securities that led to the global financial crisis (which is far from over and has barely begun), China's new middle managers are exhibiting similar nihilism and destructiveness in their increasingly hegemonistic military policy. Unlike Hu, they are almost oblivious to the consequences of launching a war, and they would not hesitate to do so. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Baltic Dry Index seems to be crashing again" The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) crashed in 2008, signaling a worldwide collapse of trade and transportation. It appears to be crashing again, but today it means something different. The Baltic Dry Index is a measure of shipping costs for cargoes in "capesize" vessels -- vessels that are too large to fit through the Suez or Panama canals, and so must go around the Cape of Good Hope or Cape Horn. These vessels transport the huge cargoes of copper, iron ore and other commodities. In 2007-8, the BDI was strongly correlated to China's commodity purchases. And after the Beijing Olympics, China cut back on construction, and there was a worldwide collapse in trade and transportation, reflected in the BDI. But today it's not clear that the BDI is related to a fall in trade and transportation. There are two OTHER factors pushing down the BDI these days. One is the floods in Australia that have shut down the coal mines. And the other is that a number of new ships are coming online -- these are ships that were commissioned during the 2008 bubble. In fact, there's an amazing 20 mile long line of 132 ships floating off the coast of Australia, according to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-12/shipping-rates-poised-to-plunge-32-on-glut-off-australia-freight-markets.html "Bloomberg."#> As a result, shipping rates are expected to plunge an additional 32% from where they are now. This means that the BDI should continue in free fall, but it's not completely clear exactly what that will be telling us. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Popping champagne corks in Portugal" They're popping champagne corks in Portugal on Wednesday, thanks to their "very successful" bond auction, where they borrowed €1.25 billion ($1.6 billion) by selling bonds, according to <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0643695e-1e7b-11e0-87d2-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=rss "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>. They had feared that they would have to pay yields (interest rates) at the head-crushing rate of 7%. But instead, they will only have to pay ... wait for it! ... just 6.71%!! That's substantially higher than the 2-4% yields that are typical of such auctions, and will push Portugal ever deeper into systemic debt. But apparently there's a very good reason why the yields came in just a hair lower than 7%. The European Central Bank (ECB) averted disaster by buying Portuguese bonds earlier in the week, according to the <#stdurl http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jan/12/viewpoint-portugal "Guardian."#> In fact, the worst is yet to come for Portugal, according to <#stdurl http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2011/0112/Portugal-bond-sale-offers-respite-for-debt-ridden-nation "CS Monitor."#> Just to meet current debt payments, Portugal will have to borrow an additional $6 billion in March, and $8 billion more in April. And this is at a time when Portugal's economy is entering a recession. This week's danger for the eurozone isn't over yet. On Thursday, Italy and Spain will both be going to the bond market. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Investments in Asian stock markets are risky The Dhaka (Bangladesh) Stock Exchange rallied a small amount on Wednesday, partially further recovering the huge loss when the market was in free fall on Sunday and Monday. The Bangladesh experience, along with similar but less severe experiences in India and smaller Asian countries, provides a warning to investors that these stock markets may have surged last year, but the risks are great. <#stdurl http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/13/business/global/13emerge.html "NY Times"#> =// .h4 Use of leverage by hedge funds is increasing One of the villainous practices of the credit bubble was the use of leverage, so that a small investment could yield huge profits. Once the real estate bubble started bursting, the high leverage had the reverse effect -- resulting in huge losses. Hedge funds were "deleveraging" early in the global financial crisis, but last year they started "releveraging" again, and now they're almost as highly leveraged as they were before. As I keep saying over and over, the same practices that led to the financial crisis in the first place are now being practiced more than ever. That's one of the ways that we know that the worst of the financial crisis is yet to come. <#stdurl http://www.cnbc.com/id/41040746 "CNBC"#> =// .h4 Abbas is 'invigorated' and 'like a young man again' Just recently, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas seemed exhausted, ready to resign, and ready to dissolve the Palestinian Authority. But now Abbas's popularity has been increasing, and he appears to be "invigorated" and acting "like he's a young man again." <#stdurl http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/invigorated-abbas-has-regained-his-authority "The National (UAE)"#> =// .h4 Gaza militants agree to stop rocket attacks on Israel Hamas held "urgent" talks with militant groups in Gaza on Wednesday to pass on a warning from Arab leaders that firing rockets into Israel is "very dangerous," and risks triggering a big counter-attack by Israel. The militant groups agreed to stop the rocket attacks, but maintained the right to "launch resistance attacks" if Israel invades Gaza Strip. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gi_bw6SMvEUXC9DG7rfZEp9KlPDQ?docId=CNG.4eca79977b5fe8b1e78c0bc181523a9a.01 "AFP"#> and <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=203310 "Jerusalem Post"#> =// .h4 North Korea's game playing is wearing thin North Korea has repeatedly followed a well-calculated path of extortion to get whatever it wants, usually a lot of money. It creates a crisis, raises tensions with threats of war, and then when everyone is anxious, proposes "peace talks" to present its demands. This may not work next time, as the South Korean population has become increasingly bellicose after last year's North Korean attacks on South Korea. <#stdurl http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/MA12Dg02.html "Asia Times"#> =// .h4 Taseer murder reveals depth of Pakistan's extremist drift Last week's murder of Pakistan's Punjab governor Salman Taseer reveals the depth of Pakistan's extremist drift. <#stdurl http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2041558,00.html "Time"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=616 "13-Jan-11 News -- Test flight embarrasses China's Hu Jintao in front of Secretary Gates"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110112 12-Jan-11 News -- Euro crisis grows in Portugal and Belgium =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110112.head 12-Jan-11 News -- Euro crisis grows in Portugal and Belgium =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110112.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110112.loc ww2010.weblog.log1101 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110112.date 12-Jan-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110112.txt1 Bangladesh stock market rallies 15% in 78 minutes =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110112.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Euro crisis grows in Portugal and Belgium" On Tuesday, Prime Minister José Socrates of Portugal defended his country's economy, according to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-11/socrates-says-portugal-won-t-seek-eu-aid-dismisses-speculation-of-bailout.html "Bloomberg:"#>
"The budget deficit will clearly be below forecast. The country is doing its job and doing it well. Portugal will not request financial aid for the simple reason that it’s not necessary."According to on <#stdurl http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/01/11/portugal-bailout-denial-sure-sign-one-is-coming-soon/ "WSJ"#> blogger, this denial is a sure sign that a bailout is coming soon, based on what happened last year:
"A look at what happened when Ireland and Greece officials made similar statements last year shows that when those two European sovereigns declared they were fine on their own, it took less than a week for them to start sounding a different tune. Within a month of their statements, both had done full about-faces and sought financial aid from the European Union and International Monetary Fund."Indeed, there's plenty of reason not to believe Socrates. Portugal is going to go to the bond market on Wednesday to borrow 1.25 billion euros. The yields (interest rates) on Portuguese bonds has been steadily rising into crisis levels. And not only Portugal: Belgium's bond yields have been surging as well. Higher bond yields mean that investors are increasingly betting that the country is going to default. <#inc ww2010.pic g110111a.gif center "" "10-year bond yields for Portugal and Belgium -- year preceding January 11, 2011 (Bloomberg)"#> As you can see from this graph, bond yields for Portugal are now at 7%. This was roughly the point where Greece and Ireland turned into crises last year. Even more important, you can see the trend. Portugal's bond yields have been going up steadily for a year, and because of Portugal's budget deficit, there's absolutely nothing on the horizon that's going to improve the situation, other than hoping for a miracle. As for Belgium, bondy yields have been exploding in the last few days, causing great alarm among the analysts. Belgium's bond yields appear to be where Portugal's were a year ago, so it will be interesting to see what happens next with Belgium. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Bangladesh stock market rallies 15% in 78 minutes" Yesterday we reported that the Dhaka (Bangladesh) Stock Exchange appeared to be crashing, as panic selling for two days had caused sharp falls, resulting in thousands of investors rioting violently in the streets. Trading had to be suspended on Monday when the index fell by 660 points in 50 minutes. On Tuesday, the index gained 992 points in 78 minutes, reversing the losses of the previous day, according to <#stdurl http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/global-markets/bangladesh-stock-markets-recover-a-day-after-record-fall/articleshow/7259719.cms "India Times."#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110111b.gif center "" "Dhaka Stock Exchange - One year preceding January 11, 2011"#> According to a <#stdurl http://blogs.wsj.com/exchange/2011/01/11/dhaka-market-scene-of-protests-recovers/ "WSJ"#> blog:
"The recovery in the stock market comes after Bangladesh’s Securities and Exchange Commission extended the limit that investors could borrow from brokers, according to a statement on its website."In other words, investors could borrow more money to pour into the stock market. This sounds like the perfect solution to a crisis! The violent up/down moves are typical of a complete crash. For example, that's exactly what happened in the days of the 1929 crash of Wall Street, as you can see in my <#hreftext ww2010.i.djia "Dow Jones historical page."#> Here is a short, frightening <#stdurl http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WmxTLgEySag "Al-Jazeera"#> video of what's happening in Dhaka:
"The American weapons that Mr. Gates was referring to included investments in a new long-range nuclear-capable bomber aircraft, which the Pentagon had stopped developing in 2009, as well as a new generation of electronic jammers for the Navy that are designed to thwart a missile from finding and hitting a target. At a Pentagon briefing on Thursday, Mr. Gates said that the jammers would improve the Navy’s ability to “fight and survive” in waters where it is challenged. Mr. Gates was also referring to continued investment in the Joint Strike Fighter, the Pentagon’s newest radar-evading fighter jet."From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, China is arming and planning for a major war with the United States. However, hope springs eternal. Secretary Gates arrived in Beijing on Sunday for discussions with China's president and defense minister. According to <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Gates-Says-US-Moves-to-Counter-Chinese-Military-Advances-113149669.html "VOA,"#> Gates says that he wants to persuade China to engage in regular military talks with the United States to prevent misunderstandings that could lead to conflict. In ten days, China's president Hu Jintao will arrive in Washington for discussions with President Obama. =inc ww2010.h4 e110110b "Japan and South Korea unite against China and North Korea" Japan and South Korea have had very bitter relations since the end of World War II, because Japan had colonized Korea during the first half of the 20th century, and because the Japanese army used Korean women as "comfort women" during WW II. But now Japan and South Korea are faced with new realities. These include China's military buildup, North Korea's nuclear weapons buildup, and China's close relationship with North Korea. As a result, Japan and South Korea are being forced to choose sides, and they're choosing each other, according to <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-09/china-and-kim-jong-il-help-japan-s-korea-forge-military-ties.html "Bloomberg."#> Japan and South Korea are boosting military and economic ties in ways that would have been politically impossible just a few years ago. =inc ww2010.h4 e110110c "Governments around the world struggle with increasing food prices" =// *** Food riots begin again as food prices reach historic highs Riots continued in Algeria for a fifth day on Sunday over high food prices and unemployment. Since they began on Tuesday, three young people have been killed, and more than 1,000 have been arrested, according to the Interior Minister quoted by <#stdurl http://www.magharebia.com/cocoon/awi/xhtml1/en_GB/features/awi/features/2011/01/09/feature-01 "Magharebia."#> =// <#inc ww2010.pic g110106a.jpg right "" "Food prices rose rapidly =// in India during December (Calcutta Telegraph)"#> Fourteen people were killed on Sunday in clashes with security forces in Tunisia, near the border with Algeria, according to <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/11-Killed-in-Tunisia-Protests-113162684.html "VOA."#> In both countries, policemen were killed as a result of the clashes. This comes as the <#stdurl http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/FoodPricesIndex/en/ "U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)"#> announces that its food price index has reached its highest level since it was begun in 1991. Prices have risen 32% in just the last half of 2010. High prices sparked worldwide food prices in 2008. Everyone hoped that food prices would come down, and they did for a while in 2009, and again early in 2010, but they really surged in the last half of 2010. They're now up to new highs, higher than in 2008, and governments around the world are looking for ways to head off problems. <#inc ww2010.pic g110109.gif right "" "World food situation (FAO)"#> In Bangladesh, the Prime Minister announced a rationing system on Sunday, according to the <#stdurl http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news-details.php?nid=169477 "Daily Star."#> Rice will be distributed to "the destitute and ultra-poor" at subsidized prices through ration cards. India, which still has in effect from the 2008 crisis an export ban on rice, is also considering a plan to distribute food grains at subsidized prices to the BPL (people Below Poverty Line), according to <#stdurl http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/pranab-urges-cms-to-act-toughhoarders/421293/ "Business Standard (India)."#> India's consumers have been particularly hit by a doubling of the price of onions in the last month, according to <#stdurl http://www.sify.com/news/onion-price-hike-hits-indian-consumers-news-national-lbjs4cbfdca.html "Sify (India)."#> However, the General Secretary of the Vegetable Traders Association is quoted as saying that the rise in onion prices is only temporary, as a fresh crop is ready to be harvested. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what we're seeing is what I call the "Malthus effect," a continuing increase in the price of food as the population grows faster than the supply of food. (See <#hreftext ww2010.i.food040628 ""Food: Green revolution v Malthus effect.""#>) Food prices were steady or declining until 2002. Since 2002, food prices have been surging much faster than inflation. The survivors of World War II (GI and Silent generations) were well aware of the horrors of famine and starvation that occurred during the war, and they developed the Green Revolution to make sure that everyone in the world would be fed. The Green Revolution led to huge increases in food production in the 1960s and 1970s, but for some reason, many people believe that the Green Revolution is some magic potion that will last forever. In many ways it was a one shot deal -- improve crop yields by using a lot more water, fertilizer and insecticides. Since then, water has gotten scarcer, and fertilizer and insecticides have been overused. New, modern equipment that was made available in the 1970s is now worn out and rusting. It's really not surprising that the surge in food prices occurred in the same time frame as the tech, real estate and credit bubbles that have developed into the current global financial crisis. The same generational greed and nihilism that led to the global financial crisis has also led to the collapse of the Green Revolution. =inc ww2010.h4 e110110d "Additional links" =// .h4 Euro zone crisis returns of Portugal's debt After a relaxing holiday season, the euro zone financial crisis is coming to the fore again. Germany, France and other euro zone countries are pressuring Portugal to seek a bailout from the EU and IMF to prevent Portugals financial problems from spreading to other countries. This is the same kind of game that was played with Ireland last year, and if it plays out in a similar way, then Portugal will stall on asking for aid in order to gain leverage in having to pay lower interest rates on the bailout money. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE7081X420110110 "Reuters"#> =// .h4 30,000 Red Shirt protesters demonstrate in Thailand Tensions are also rising again in Thailand. On Sunday, some 30,000 red-shirt anti-government protesters filled the streets of downtown Bangkok in a peaceful demonstration. Red Shirt organizers say that they plan to hold regular demonstrations twice a month. <#stdurl http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/01/09/thailand.red.shirts.return/ "CNN"#> =// .h4 Israeli academics protest 165 Israeli academics are refusing to participate in academic functions at the Ariel University Center of Samaria, because it's across the "Green Line" in the West Bank, in territory claimed by the Palestinians. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/NationalNews/Article.aspx?id=202778 "Jerusalem Post"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=611 "10-Jan-11 News -- Defense Secretary Gates announces an arms race with China"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110109 9-Jan-11 News -- Food riots kill two in Algeria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110109.head 9-Jan-11 News -- Food riots kill two in Algeria =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110109.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110109.loc ww2010.weblog.log1101 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110109.date 9-Jan-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110109.txt1 Algerians cut duties to reduce food prices =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110109.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Food riots in Algeria kill two and injure hundreds" Two people were killed and hundreds injured in the fourth day of food riots in Algeria on Saturday, according to <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Two-Killed-Hundreds-Injured-in-Algerian-Food-Riots-113133109.html "VOA."#> An additional body was found in a hotel burned down by rioters. The riots come as the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) food price index reached historic highs, higher than when the worldwide food riots occurred in 2008. World food prices have increased by 32% in just the last half of 2010. The rioting began this week after the sudden price hike of food staples such as flour, sugar and oil. A panicked Algerian government reacted by saying it will cut taxes and import duties on some staple foods, according to <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/01/20111820132025240.html "Al-Jazeera."#> Officials claim that this will reduce the price of sugar and cooking oil by 41%. However, many people claim that the riots go beyond high food prices to general discontent with the Algerian government. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=610 "9-Jan-11 News -- Food riots kill two in Algeria"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110108 8-Jan-11 News -- Bernanke emphatically rejects bailing out states and cities =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110108.head 8-Jan-11 News -- Bernanke emphatically rejects bailing out states and cities =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110108.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110108.loc ww2010.weblog.log1101 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110108.date 8-Jan-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110108.txt1 First anniversary of the daily news summary =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110108.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "First anniversary of the daily news summary" Here's what <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e100107 "I wrote"#> exactly one year ago:
"Dear Reader, I'm going to try this for a while and see if it works for me. Ideally I'll produce a news summary every day, but that's probably unrealistic. I'll try to do it as often as possible. Every day I come across one or more stories that I believe are very important (or just amusing). Often web site readers refer such articles to me. But my work schedule keeps me from writing a full article on them. The news summary will briefly cover stories that I believe are of international geopolitical or financial significance, and will provide a link to one or more articles."Much to my own amazement, I've only missed five days or so in the last year, even though I do this in addition to my full time job. (By that, I'm referring to my software engineering job that pays me a salary, as opposed to this full time job that pays nothing -- except for the donations that I receive from those of you who are kind enough to provide them.) Each evening as I write an article, I ask myself why the hell I keep doing this, and think it's about time to quit. But then I get the article written and posted, and it (hopefully) looks good, and then I decide that it was all worth it, for at least another day. I should mention that even after all this time, I still respond to most e-mail and comment questions that I receive. However, I'm very often a few days or weeks behind, but in almost all cases I do respond (eventually). By the way, I give a higher priority to queries posted in the Generational Dynamics forum, since in that case the response is seen by more people. I know that I've helped a lot of people, because many people have written to me thanking me for this service, which is entirely altruistic. The nation and the world are entering a truly terrible time, and I always say that you should treasure the time you have left, and use the time to prepare yourself, your family, your community and your nation. The purpose of this web site is to help you prepare, and I'm pleased to be able to provide that help. Happy new year to everyone. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Bernanke emphatically rejects bailing out states and cities" Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was appearing on Friday before the Senate Budget Committee, and was asked whether the Fed could provide money through quantitative easing to bail out state and municipal budgets. It's a serious problem. States are collectively forecasting a budget gap of an enormous $113 billion for the fiscal year starting in July, according to <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE7065VY20110107 "Reuters."#> I've heard several financial analysts and pundits say that there will have to be many municipal bankruptcies this year, especially in California. There's apparently a severe political compulsion that's going to lead to these bankruptcies. The problem in many municipalities is that they're bound by enormous union contracts that demand cadillac salaries and cadillac benefits far in excess of corresponding salaries and benefits in the private sector. Most unions have been playing hardball and refusing to agree to any cuts whatsoever, under the assumption that either the state or the federal government will be forced to provide a bailout. That's why so many municipalities are considering bankruptcies. The money to pay these salaries and benefits simply does not exist, and cannot be raised. By going into bankruptcy court, a municipality can ask the judge modify or eliminate the union contracts to affordable levels. Naturally, this becomes a big issue for the Democrats in Congress, who are politically pressured to provide bailouts to the cities and states. The Reuters article referenced above points out that last year's $814 stimulus plan included the largest transfer of federal funds to states in U.S. history. There is little appetite to repeat this. So Democratic Senators on Friday asked Bernanke if the Fed could bail out the states and municipalities. His response:
"They should not expect loans from the Fed. It's going to be difficult, but on the other hand there is some improvement in the economy and tax revenues have actually picked up. ... "I don't think the Federal Reserve has the authority. And I don't think it would be appropriate for us to do that. This is something that would take place over a period of time ... And there'd be plenty of time, I think, for Congress and for the state legislature to look at alternative solutions."Almost all Republicans and many Democrats are coming out against any fiscal bailout of the states as well, according to <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704739504576067602380461160.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>. Republican House Budget Committee chairman said, "If we bail out one state, then all of the debt of all of the states is almost explicitly put on the books of the federal government." =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Thousands of foreclosures on hold after Massachusetts court ruling" The Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court on Friday ruled that two foreclosures were invalid because the paper trail for the too tangled, and the foreclosing banks could not establish clear ownership, according to the <#stdurl http://www.boston.com/business/ticker/2011/01/sjc_ruling_may.html "Boston Globe."#> Although only two mortgages are involved, this court ruling could affect thousands of foreclosures, and may have national implications. As I described in <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e101022 ""22-Oct-10 News -- Foreclosure mess turns into a major crisis,""#> this problem may be good news for homeowners, who now will be able to stay in their homes a while longer, but it's bad news for the real estate market as a whole, since it puts many purchases of foreclosed homes into question. The <#stdurl http://voices.washingtonpost.com/political-economy/2011/01/ruling_in_massachusetts_forecl.html?hpid=topnews "Washington Post"#> quotes one analyst as saying that this case is "enough to put serious cloud on title through the whole system and that's a problem." =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Goldman Sachs investment plan for Facebook shows that little has changed" There's an SEC rule that says that once a privately held company has 500 investors, then the company is required to open its books and divulge financial information. This makes sense because you don't want a company to mislead or defraud thousands of investors. However, as we're well aware, the people on Wall Street consider rules to be an annoyance to be avoided, and they've now found a way to get around this rule. Well, Facebook is generating so much profit that a lot of investors want to invest in the company, but they don't want to have to divulge their financials, according to <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70359V20110107 "Reuters."#> "No problem!" says Goldman Sachs, one of the leaders among the many banks that five years ago sold defective mortgage-backed collateralized debt obligations to millions of investors, causing the global financial crisis. Goldman has created a special investment vehicle in which investors can buy shares. The special investment vehicle will then use the money to invest in Facebook. Voilà! You can have thousands of investors, but there's only one investor in Facebook itself, so there's no problem. As I keep saying on this web site, the global financial crisis was caused by massive fraud in almost every major financial institution in the world, perpetrated by nihilistic, greedy Gen-Xers, enabled by their incompetent, greedy Boomer bosses. And the point is that the same people are still in the same jobs, looking for news ways to screw investors for their own personal gain. That's one way that you know that there's still a worse major financial crisis yet to come. Even apart from this deal, Facebook looks to me like a disaster in the making. I don't have anything against the company -- as far as I know, they're a fine company run by a fine management team. But Facebook appears to me to be a one-company bubble. It's a social networking web site with more than 500 million users, and it has rock star popularity. The problem is that there may be a different rock star next year, and the next generation of teenagers may decide to leave Facebook just as fast as they joined. The situation is even worse because the Goldman deal shows that they're willing to cut corners to make money unethically. It wouldn't take much for that bubble to burst, causing investors to lose a lot of money. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Investment firm predicts repeat of 2005-2007 stock market bubble" As I've pointed out a number of times, financial pundits and analysts seem to believe that "prosperity is just around the corner," because they believe that the real estate and credit bubbles of the mid 2000s decade can be reflated. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is impossible, but that doesn't stop the analysts from predicting it. Here's a <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-04/s-p-500-to-echo-2004-in-lasting-bull-market-mkm-says-technical-analysis.html "Bloomberg"#> article that says it explicitly:
"The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will rally back up to “mid-2008 levels,” in part because conditions resemble those at the end of 2004, when shares gained almost three more years, said MKM Partners. The S&P 500 broke to new highs at the end of 2010, just as in 2004. In both years, the index’s Moving Average Convergence/Divergence line, calculated by subtracting the index’s average level during the past 26 months from the average over the past 12 months, rose above zero and its stochastics chart shows usually strong momentum. The similar pattern suggests the current bull market may have more room to rally, said Katie Stockton, MKM’s chief market technician. “The uptrend is equally mature” as it was at the end of 2004, Stockton, who is based in Stamford, Connecticut, wrote in a note dated Jan. 2. “We are thus encouraged by the ability of the market to extend its uptrend from 2005 through 2007 and would not be scared away from the market simply because it has already seen two years of impressive gains.”"Believe me, Dear Reader, this is a pile of crap. Katie Stockton, who is quoted in the article, doesn't have the vaguest idea what's coming, but she's developed this mathematical model that justifies her six or seven-digit salary, since it tells people what they want to hear. It reminds me of the super-sophisticated mathematical models that were used to justify the sales of collateralized debt obligations five years ago. Those models, it turned out, were based on mathematically impossible assumptions. (See <#hreftext ww2010.i.smoking100414 ""Financial Crisis Inquiry hearings provide 'smoking gun' evidence of widespread criminal fraud.""#>) As I keep saying, over and over, the same people who caused the financial crisis in the first place are still in the same jobs, doing the same kinds of things, looking for new ways to skirt the rules and defraud investors. That's how we know for sure that the worst of the financial crisis is far from over. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 European countries face major financial test next week Yields (interest rates) on the bonds of several European countries rose sharply this week, indicating that investors are betting that there will be defaults. The euro currency fell sharply against the dollar. The reason is that the euro is facing a major test next week: Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Spain and Portugal are all going into the bond market next week, seeking to borrow 20-22 billion euros. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0724618420110107 "Reuters"#> =// .h4 Analysts deeplly disappointed by Friday's jobs report Despite the fall in the unemployment rate to 9.4%, analysts are deeply disappointed by the Friday's jobs report, because employers added only 103,000 jobs in December, when analysts had predicted a figure closer to 200,000. The fall in the employment rate is apparently caused by a shrinkage in the nation's workforce by 260,000 persons from November, as more Americans retired, went back to school or simply gave up looking for jobs. <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-unemployment-rate-20110108,0,4357677.story "LA Times"#> =// .h4 Brazil's credit bubble may be about to burst Financial superstar nation Brazil may be facing a financial crisis. Consumer credit has shot up fivefold since 2002, and the credit bubble is showing signs of being about to burst. <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_03/b4211042048732.htm "Bloomberg"#> =// .h4 Turkish and Greek PMs meet over illegal migrant problem As we've reported, Greece has generated a great deal of controversy by proposing to build a fence (similar to the one on the US border with Mexico) along the border with Turkey, to prevent illegal migration. This has triggered a meeting between Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou and Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, at which they showed unity over the problem of illegal migrants. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE7064TV20110107 "Reuters"#> =// .h4 Pakistan's government avoids collapse Pakistan's government had been close to collapse this week, because a key party, the MQM, had pulled out of the PPP's governing coalition. The split had been triggered when Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani had imposed a fuel surcharge as an austerity measure, so that Pakistan can avoid bankruptcy. Gilani has caved in and rescinded the fuel surcharge, and the MQM will rejoin the coalition. I guess the MQM is hoping for a bailout from either China or the U.S. What this shows, as much as anything, is that unpopular austerity programs will not survive long, until there's a crisis that forces austerity. <#stdurl http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Politics/08-Jan-2011/MQM-rejoins-govt-not-Cabinet "Nation (Pakistan)"#> =// .h4 Older generations in Pakistan mourn a once tolerant, relaxed nation. Older generations in Pakistan are mourning the loss of a once tolerant, relaxed nation. <#stdurl http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/07/AR2011010702823.html "Associated Press"#> =// .h4 Algeria food riots spread to Tunisia Food riots in Algeria spread into Tunisia on Friday, as protests and strikes driven by unemployment and high food prices swept across the country. Videos of demonstrations are appearing on the internet, despite attempts by Tunisia's government to control internet postings. <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-tunisia-riots-20110108,0,1279820.story "LA Times"#> =// .h4 Tunisia conducts 'phishing' attacks on its own citizens Tunisia's government is conducting a vigorous attack on internet users to prevent information unfavorable to the government from reaching the internet. The Tunisian authorities have allegedly carried out targeted "phishing" operations: stealing users passwords to spy on them and eradicate online criticism. <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/01/20111614145839362.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =// .h4 Muslim girls in Europe lead a double life Muslim girls are often forced to lead double lives in Europe. They have sex in public restrooms and stuff mobile phones in their bras to hide their secret existences from their strict Muslim families. They are often forbidden from visiting gynecologists or receiving sex ed. In the worst cases, they undergo hymen reconstruction surgery, have late-term abortions or even commit suicide. Says one mother to her daughter, "An unmarried woman who has lost her virginity might as well be a whore." <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,737683,00.html#ref=nlint "Spiegel"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=609 "8-Jan-11 News -- Bernanke emphatically rejects bailing out states and cities"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110107 7-Jan-11 News -- Food riots begin again as food prices reach historic highs =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110107.head 7-Jan-11 News -- Food riots begin again as food prices reach historic highs =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110107.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110107.loc ww2010.weblog.log1101 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110107.date 7-Jan-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110107.txt1 China's military developments catch Americans by surprise =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110107.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Food riots begin again as food prices reach historic highs" Riots over rising food prices and chronic unemployment spread across Algeria on Thursday, with youths torching government buildings and shouting "Bring us Sugar!" according to <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hYcqi9dvY3siCDBCTrzYpUqjY1uQ?docId=495d428ea4ed4eb2bd5bcef59be1f15f "Associated Press."#> The food price index of the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has risen 32% in just the last half of 2010, according to <#stdurl http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_03/b4211006108971.htm "Bloomberg."#> Here's a graph that I posted in November, showing food prices through October: <#inc ww2010.pic FaoFood-101120.gif center "" "FAO Food Price Index versus CPI, 1990 to October 2010"#> It had been hoped at that time that food prices would start to fall again, but they didn't. Instead, the price index continued to climb, reaching new highs in December. <#inc ww2010.pic g110106a.jpg right "" "Food prices rose rapidly in India during December (Calcutta Telegraph)"#> In India, food inflation increased to 18.32% for the week ending December 23, primarily due to a steep rise in onion prices, according to the <#stdurl http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/food-inflation-soars-to-1832/421036/ "Business Standard (Delhi)."#> This was about twice the rate in November. Chief Economic Adviser Kaushik Basu said: "It is an utter mistake to think that it is fully within the control of the government to move prices of food up and down." It had been hoped that food inflation would moderate in 2010, after a significant rise in 2009. During the summer it did moderate, but in recent weeks it's surged. Pakistan's government, which is in near total paralysis after the assassination of Salman Taseer that we've been reporting on, banned onion exports to India over land routes on Thursday, in order to lower onion prices in Pakistan. This move, which was completely unexpected, is being criticized in both India and Pakistan, according to the <#stdurl http://www.telegraphindia.com/1110107/jsp/frontpage/story_13404005.jsp "Calcutta Telegraph."#> Food prices are now higher than they were in 2008, when surging prices caused food riots around the world. Officials are claiming that the situation is not as bad today, since there are larger stocks of wheat and other commodities available. (However, I'm not sure why food prices are increasing, if there are these huge stocks available.) From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what we're seeing is what I call the "Malthus effect," a continuing increase in the price of food as the population grows faster than the supply of food. (See <#hreftext ww2010.i.food040628 ""Food: Green revolution v Malthus effect.""#>) As you can see from the above graph, food prices were steady or declining until 2002. Since 2002, food prices have been surging much faster than inflation. The survivors of World War II (GI and Silent generations) were well aware of the horrors of famine and starvation that occurred during the war, and they developed the Green Revolution to make sure that everyone in the world would be fed. It's really not surprising that the surge in food prices occurred in the same time frame as the tech, real estate and credit bubbles that have developed into the current global financial crisis. The same generational greed and nihilism that led to the debauched use of credit has also led to the collapse of the Green Revolution. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 China's military developments catch Americans by surprise American officials have been caught by surprise by China's development of a stealth fighter, along with news of advances in anti-ship missiles. The fighter is only a prototype that won't see service for years, but the missile is nearly operational. As we've said many times, China is preparing to lead a new world war against the United States and the West. <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-china-military-20110107,0,3324067.story "LA Times"#> =// .h4 Assassination in Pakistan raises concerns about nuclear weapons The assassination of Pakistani Punjab's governor Salman Taseer by his "Elite Force" bodyguard is raising concerns in Washington and around the world that a similar assassination attack may give al-Qaeda linked terrorists access to Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. <#stdurl http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/Taseer-assassination-raises-spectre-of-N-heist-in-Pak/articleshow/7233069.cms "Times of India"#> =// .h4 Coptic Christians attend Christmas Eve mass Thousands of Coptic Christians packed churches across Europe and the Middle East to celebrate Christmas Eve mass on Wednesday evening. Tensions were high after last week's bombing of a Coptic church in Alexandria, and continued internet threats by al-Qaeda linked groups that more churches would be bombed. Muslims had offered to visit churches in Egypt to act as "human shields" against further attacks, but church officials said that the presence of Muslims would be harmful to "the feelings and the sensitivities of the relatives of the victims." <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/01/20111704759563917.html "Al-Jazeera"#> =// .h4 Floods in Australia shut down coal export industry Floods in Australia, the worst in 50 years, have affected about 200,000 people and caused $5 billion. The coal industry has been particularly hard hit, and coal exports have been brought to a standstill. <#stdurl http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6BU09620110107 "Reuters"#> =// .h4 Little-known strategy for cutting mortgage payments Homeowners who would like to reduce mortgage payments, but don't qualify for refinancing, can use a little-known strategy called "recasting" or "re-amortization." <#stdurl http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/02/realestate/mortgages/02Mort.html "NY Times"#> =// .h4 Women's tears turn men off New research says that when a woman cries, a man's sexual desire for her decreases. <#stdurl http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/womens-tears-are-a-real-turn-off-for-men-new-research-claims/story-fn3dxity-1225983602989 "Australian"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=608 "7-Jan-11 News -- Food riots begin again as food prices reach historic highs"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110106 6-Jan-11 News -- Pakistan melts down as US/Nato forces struggle in Afghanistan =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110106.head 6-Jan-11 News -- Pakistan melts down as US/Nato forces struggle in Afghanistan =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110106.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110106.loc ww2010.weblog.log1101 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110106.date 6-Jan-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110106.txt1 Muslims will attend Coptic Christmas mass in Egypt =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110106.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pakistan melts down as US/Nato forces struggle in Afghanistan" Islamist lawyers showered Mumtaz Qadri with roses when he arrived in court on Wednesday to face charges of having assassinated Salman Taseer, the governor of the province of Punjab in Pakistan, according to <#stdurl http://www.dawn.com/2011/01/05/lawyers-shower-roses-for-governors-killer.html "Dawn (Pakistan)."#> And <#stdurl http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/4896.htm "MEMRI"#> has translated a statement by 500 Pakistani religious scholars, mostly belonging to the terrorist organization Jamaat Ahle Sunnat Pakistan, praising Qadri for keeping alive a "tradition of 1,400 years in Islam" which requires the killing of anyone committing an act of blasphemy against Prophet Mohammed. <#inc ww2010.pic g071230.jpg right "" "Protesting female students at Red Mosque seminary wearing burkas and carrying bamboo sticks in 2007"#> The assassination is only the latest in an almost weekly stream of terrorist attacks by al-Qaeda linked groups in Pakistan. Many of them have been particularly targeted shrines and worshippers of Sufi and Shia Muslim sects, considered by Islamists to be apostasies. Pakistan has been a troubled nation since its birth, where there have been militias particularly targeting Indians in Kashmir. Pakistan really began turning against itself in 2007, with the bloody confrontation between police and students in Lal Masjid or the Red Mosque in Islamabad. (See my 2007 article, <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e071230 ""Pakistanis are increasingly joining forces with al-Qaeda.""#>) Trouble began when female students began wearing head-to-toe black burkas and, in a move heavy with sexual symbolism, began carrying bamboo sticks. They demanded that all the Islamabad prostitutes be arrested for violating Islamic law, but they weren't taken seriously until they began abducting prostitutes and locking them in the seminary. This led to a 36-hour siege and gunfight with police -- the male students were carrying guns, not bamboo sticks -- that ended up killing more than 100 people. A seminary student interviewed before the gunfight said that she was prepared to die for God. After the six hour gun battle she said, "We are never afraid. One day all lives will end, and if this is the case, then why not give our life to Islam?" Since then, there have been numerous news stories about boys and girls, having been trained in Islamist madrassas, saying that they were ready to become martyrs to Allah. Sunni Islamist groups in Pakistan seem to have an endless supply of young people willing to become suicide bombers. Now let's contrast all this to what's happening next door in Afghanistan. =// <#inc ww2010.pic g110105.jpg center "" "Helmand's Sangin district =// in Afghanistan (McClatchy)"#> <#inc ww2010.pic g110105.jpg right "" "Helmand's Sangin district in Afghanistan (McClatchy)"#> On Monday, an influential Afghan tribe leader agreed to put a stop to Taliban attacks in the Sangin district of Helmand, according to <#stdurl http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/01/03/106135/us-marines-report-peace-deal-with.html "McClatchy."#> The deal is being compared to the "Anbar Awakening" in Iraq, where Sunni Iraqis turned against al-Qaeda in Iraq. This is raising hopes that there'll be a similar "Awakening" in Afghanistan, bringing the war to an end. There's another major similarity to Iraq that, to my knowledge, has never been reported except on my web site. According to a July, 2007, <#stdurl http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=4285&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=182&no_cache=1 "study by the Jamestown Foundation"#> entitled "The Taliban Fedayeen: The World's Worst Suicide Bombers?":
"An analysis of the attacks carried out in the last two years reveals a curious fact. In 43% of the bombings conducted last year and in 26 of the 57 bombings traced in this study up to June 15, the only death caused by the bombing was that of the bomber himself. Astoundingly, approximately 90 suicide bombers in this two year period succeeded in killing only themselves. This number exceeds 100 when you factor in those who succeeded in killing only one person in addition to themselves. There was one period in the spring of 2006 (February 20 to June 21) when a stunning 26 of the 36 suicide bombers in Afghanistan (72%) only killed themselves. ... These statistics also represent a uniquely Afghan phenomenon that warrants investigation."What almost nobody has noticed is that a very similar phenomenon occurred in Iraq. In April, 2007, I wrote <#hreftext ww2010.i.iraq070401 ""Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq.""#> I was able to show by quoting documents from a variety of sources that the Iraqis themselves had little interest in fighting against each other, though al-Qaeda did everything possible to provoke them. One of the most interesting examples was a letter of complaint from al-Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi to Osama bin Laden, including the following:
"Jihad here unfortunately [takes the form of] mines planted, rockets launched, and mortars shelling from afar. The Iraqi brothers still prefer safety and returning to the arms of their wives, where nothing frightens them. Sometimes the groups have boasted among themselves that not one of them has been killed or captured. We have told them in our many sessions with them that safety and victory are incompatible, that the tree of triumph and empowerment cannot grow tall and lofty without blood and defiance of death, that the [Islamic] nation cannot live without the aroma of martyrdom and the perfume of fragrant blood spilled on behalf of God, and that people cannot awaken from their stupor unless talk of martyrdom and martyrs fills their days and nights."It was shown that Iraqis were refusing to allow their children to become suicide bombers, and so al-Zarqawi had to import suicide bombers from Saudi Arabia and Jordan. The experiences of Afghanistan and Iraq are dramatically different from what's happening in Pakistan, which is increasing turning against itself with its never-ending supply of young suicide bombers. This dramatic difference has been possibly the most fascinating aspect of my development of Generational Dynamics over these last nine years. When a country has had a recent generational crisis war -- as in the case of Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Lebanon and Thailand -- then the population is strongly attracted away from violence. In particular, a civil war is impossible or, if one occurs, then it fizzles quickly. But Pakistan's last generational crisis war was the genocidal war between Hindus and Muslims that followed Partition, the 1947 partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan. In many current and historical examples that I've studied, the pattern is overwhelmingly consistent. Even when a generational crisis civil war ends, there is little or no internal violence for about 25-30 years. We've seen this quite dramatically in Sri Lanka, whose civil war ended last year. Pundits and analysts predicted that fighting would continue, but there has been no fighting whatsoever. After about 25-30 years after a crisis civil war, low level violence can begin. This violence gradually increases, often punctuated by short-lived peace agreements, until a new war begins decades later. So what does this mean for the war in Afghanistan? Can that war wind down the same as the war in Iraq seems to be doing? As I've said many times, the answer is no, because of two very important differences between the two countries. The first difference is that Afghanistan's last crisis war was an extremely bloody civil war (1992-96), while Iraq's last crisis war as an external war (the Iran/Iraq war, 1980-88). This means that Iraq's Sunni and Shia population can comfortably form a shared government, at least for the time being. With Afghanistan still in a generational Recovery era, there is almost no taste for war of any kind, even between people who, just 15 years ago, were literally slitting each others throats. This is where the second difference becomes important. The Iraqi Sunnis were Iraqis first and Sunnis second, and had little identity with external Arab Sunni groups. But the Sunni group in Afghanistan is the Pashtuns, and there is a strong identity group connection with the Pashtuns in Pakistan. The Taliban terrorist group is drawn from the Pashtun ethnic group. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is a fascinating research subject, since the Afghan Pashtuns are in a generational Recovery era, while the Pakistan Pashtuns are in a generational Crisis era. But the Afghan Pashtuns will not be able to eject the Pakistani Pashtuns in the way that the Iraqis ejected al-Qaeda in Iraq. This means that Pakistan's never-ending supply of suicide bombers becomes Afghanistan's never-ending supply of suicide bombers. My expectation is that there will be more deals with Afghan tribal leaders like the one that was announced on Monday, especially in the western regions far from the Pakistani border. But I expect no such deals near the Pakistani border, or if there are any, they will be quickly sabotaged by the Pakistani Pashtuns. If only the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan could somehow be closed, then the Afghan war would end quickly. But that's not possible. The larger picture is that Afghanistan is to play a secondary role to the major war, the one between Pakistan and India. This will refight the 1947 war between Hindus and Muslims, with Pakistan itself torn between Sunni and Shia Muslims. Pakistan has not yet recovered from last year's devastating floods that covered 20% of the country. That lawyers, supposedly committed to upholding the law, would be throwing rose petals at the man who killed the governor of Punjab is almost too much to believe. And this comes as the government is close to collapse because a political party has pulled out of the governing coalition. Pakistan is truly staring into the abyss. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Muslims will attend Coptic Christmas mass in Egypt Christmas is January 6 for Coptic Christians. After the bombing of the Coptic Christian church in Egypt last week, many Egypt Muslims are planning to attend the Christmas mass in sympathy with the Christians. <#stdurl http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/3216/Egypt/Politics-/Egypt-Muslims-to-act-as-human-shields-at-Coptic-Ch.aspx "Ahram"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=607 "6-Jan-11 News -- Pakistan melts down as US/Nato forces struggle in Afghanistan"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110105 5-Jan-11 News -- Pakistan's crisis worsens as senior politician is assassinated =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110105.head 5-Jan-11 News -- Pakistan's crisis worsens as senior politician is assassinated =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110105.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110105.loc ww2010.weblog.log1101 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110105.date 5-Jan-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110105.txt1 Egypt Christian church bombing blamed on Salafi terrorists =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110105.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Pakistan's crisis worsens as senior politician is assassinated" Salman Taseer, the governor of Punjab province and a senior politician in the governing Pakistan People's Party (PPP),was assassinated on Tuesday by one of his own bodyguards, significantly worsening Pakistan's financial and political crises. This is the highest profile assassination since the the December, 2008, assassination of Benazir Bhutto, a leading Shia Muslim figure and daughter of the founder of the PPP. She was assassinated just two weeks prior to an election in which she was expected to win the office of Prime Minister. After her death, her widowed husband, Asif Ali Zardari, became president of Pakistan. Syed Yousuf Raza Gillani, another PPP associate of Bhutto, later became Prime Minister. And Tasser became governor of Punjab, Pakistan's largest and most important province. Taseer was shot in broad daylight on an Islamabad street by Malik Mumtaz Qadri, a member of the "Elite Force" that were supposed to protect him, according to Pakistan's <#stdurl http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2011\01\05\story_5-1-2011_pg1_1 "Daily Times."#> Taseer was shot 27 times in the back. Qadri was arrested along with nine other members of the Elite Force, who had allegedly conspired with Qadri. Qadri confessed to the killed, and blamed it on Taseer's opposition to Pakistan's blasphemy law, which forbids blaspheming Mohammed or Islam. Taseer had been in the center of a major national controversy on this law. According to <#stdurl http://www.dawn.com/2011/01/04/murder-most-foul.html "Dawn"#>:
"Mr Taseer had few friends left in his last days. His outspoken defence of the Christian woman, Aasia Bibi, who was accused of blasphemy under questionable charges leveled against her by fellow Muslim villagers and who has been on the death row in a Punjab prison for over a year awaiting appeal in a higher court, made him a hate figure for extremist and Islamist outfits and parties. Major religious parties called out nationwide strikes on Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve to demand Aasia Bibi’s execution under the controversial blasphemy law, and to condemn her sympathisers, Mr Taseer being one of the foremost public figures amongst the latter group and thus the object of hate."In the past few weeks, the validity of Pakistan's blasphemy law in Islam has been debated by Pakistani scholars. Two articles have been translated by <#stdurl http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/4851.htm "MEMRI,"#> and summarized as follows:
"In the following two articles, Pakistani writers Abbas Zaidi and Dr. Mohammad Taqi debate the implications and rationale of the controversial blasphemy law in Pakistan. In the first article, titled "The Blasphemer Must Not Be Pardoned," Abbas Zaidi, a sociolinguist, argues that the clerics should not be allowed to have their way, as it will embolden the clerics, causing further such threats to the nearly five billion people who are not Muslim. In the second article, titled "Blasphemy Laws: What Does the Koran Say?" prominent writer Dr. Mohammad Taqi argues that the Holy Koran and Sunnah, i.e. the deeds and sayings of the Prophet Muhammad, do not prescribe any punishment for a blasphemer. He reasons that the clerics are misusing a Koranic verse dealing with war and sedition to call for the death penalty for blasphemy."What's always significant about these issues is that Islamist extremists are always justifying their mass murders, even of civilians, by claiming the most extreme interpretations of Islamic history and beliefs, and these interpretations are almost never supported by other Muslim scholars. Pakistan has been the target of a steady stream of al-Qaeda and Taliban linked terrorist attacks, often targeting Sufi and Shia Muslim shrines and worshippers. Pakistan is already in the middle of major financial and political crises. The government is close to collapse anyway, as two political parties pulled out of the PPP's governing coalition. Pakistan has a huge budget deficit, and the economy is also collapsing as well, according to <#stdurl http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a549737c-1845-11e0-88c9-00144feab49a.html "Financial Times"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stopped a payment of $3.5 billion of its $11.3 billion loan to Pakistan, because has not raised taxes as demanded by the IMF. As if that weren't enough, major floods last year affected 20% of Pakistan's land mass, making 7.5 million people homeless. In Sindh province, the heart of the PPP, hundreds of thousands of refugees fled into the port city of Karachi, making the city almost ungovernable. Hundreds were killed in the ensuing violence. =// <#stdurl =// http://www.dawn.com/2011/01/05/panic-grips-karachi-after-taseer%E2%80%99s-murder.html =// "Dawn."#> So it's not surprising that the assassination of Taseer has caused panic in Karachi, according to Dawn. Many stores were closed and people stayed at home, fearing a violent backlash against the assassination. However, no signficant violence has occurred so far. Troubles just seem to just pile upon troubles in Pakistan. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Pakistan and India are headed for a genocidal ethnic and religious war, refighting the war between Muslims and Hindus that followed Partition, the 1947 partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into Pakistan and India. It's impossible to predict exactly what scenario will lead to that war, but the continuing deterioration of Pakistan is certainly part of it. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Egypt Christian church bombing blamed on Salafi terrorists Saturday's bombing of a Coptic Christian church in Alexandria, Egypt, is being blamed on an al-Qaeda linked Egyptian terrorist group known as Salafis. They had been calling for violence against Christians, and they are thought to be behind online instructional videos explaining how to build a bomb, and providing the locations of churches to target, including the one that was bombed. <#stdurl http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iohMy5LGHFB_K6a0GyOr8taaAISg?docId=0de41fe06ea6435c815293fcf76e1fa1 "Associated Press"#> =// .h4 Palestinian Authority accuses Dahlan of planning a coup Internal divisions within the Palestinian Authority are growing, as Former security strongman Muhammad Dahlan was interrogated on Tuesday on charges of planning a military coup against president Mahmoud Abbas. <#stdurl http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=202152 "Jerusalem Post"#> =// .h4 Netanyahu blames U.S. for failure of Mideast peace talks One of the most peculiar facets of the recent collapse in Mideast peace talks was the story that the Obama administration offered Israel a squadron of jet fighters in return for a 90-day extension to the West Bank settlement freeze. The story at the time was that Israel refused the offer, but on Monday, prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he was willing to agree to the 90-day extension, but that U.S. officials withdrew the offer. "The Americans were right in saying that the settlement freeze will lead to a dead end, in which we would have entered an endless path of settlement freezes, but despite it all I agreed to go through with it," he said. <#stdurl http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/netanyahu-israel-agreed-to-new-settlement-freeze-but-u-s-retracted-offer-1.334965 "Haaretz"#> =// .h4 Russian Orthodox Church refuses to forgive Leo Tolstoy A campaign to reverse the excommunication 110 years ago of the great Russian writer Leo Tolstoy has been refused by the Russian Orthodox Church, who blame him for aiding the Bolshevik Revolution. As the centennial anniversary of his November 20, 1910, death approached, the church issued a statement acknowledging Tolstoy’s “unforgettable, beautiful works,” and said that Russian Orthodox readers were allowed to say solitary prayers for him on the anniversary of his death. <#stdurl http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/04/books/04tolstoy.html?ref=global-home "NY Times"#> =// .h4 Record code January is forecast On the heels of a record-cold December, long-range forecasts indicate that January could be the coldest across the United States since the 1980s. <#stdurl http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/43933/this-january-could-be-coldest.asp "AccuWeather"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=606 "5-Jan-11 News -- Pakistan's crisis worsens as senior politician is assassinated"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110104 4-Jan-11 News -- Republicans say they'll cut government spending =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110104.head 4-Jan-11 News -- Republicans say they'll cut government spending =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110104.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110104.loc ww2010.weblog.log1101 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110104.date 4-Jan-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110104.txt1 Palestinians to submit anti-settlement resolution to U.N. Security Council =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110104.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Republicans say they'll cut government spending" Now that the Republicans are in the substantial majority in the House of Representatives, they're planning to cut spending, in order to reduce the budget deficit. Here's what the Republicans plan to do, according to an analysis in the <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704111504576060222252953518.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#>:
"House Republicans are pledging to cut spending, and one early sign they're serious is the rules package they are bringing to the House floor tomorrow. More than the last time it held power, the GOP is changing the rules to make it harder to tax and spend. ... In their new rules, Republicans are giving paygo the heave-ho and substituting a rule called "cut as you go." From now on, increases in mandatory spending—for new or existing entitlements—will require that spending be cut by an equal or greater amount elsewhere in the budget. ... These new rules are ... a welcome sign that Republicans understand their November mandate and are thinking strategically about how to fulfill it."The article lists a few more rules changes that I've omitted, in order to avoid tedium. So the Republicans are "pledging to cut spending," but nowhere in this sympathetic analysis is anything that points to any places where actual spending will be cut. The most that can be said is that in a few trivial cases, some small spending increases will be avoided. In 2008, I wrote the article, <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e081125 ""One, Two, Three ... Infinity,""#> in which I compared to the ever-increasing government spending plans to a book by George Gamow that I read in school in the 1950s. My use of that particular phrase was to convey the idea that American debt was on an exponential growth path that would not be stopped except by a major financial collapse and crisis. A few rules changes will not stop the deficit's exponential growth path. The whole idea is a big joke, typical of the jokes that we always see in Washington. It's easy now, at the beginning of 2011, to fantasize reducing the deficit. But it's politically impossible to cut any government spending program or to increase taxes. Therefore, the deficit will only increase. Furthermore, there's no way of knowing what crises will occur during 2011. The global economy is far more fragile today than it was a year ago. In the US, the shadow inventory of foreclosed and distressed real estate has grown to something like 7-8 million homes. Those foreclosed homes are being held off the market by bankers who are waiting for home prices to increase. Once it sinks in that home prices are only going to decrease, there's a possibility of a full scale panic, with a million or two homes suddenly dumped on the market. China has a massive real estate bubble that could burst at any time. China's quantitative easing program has pushed up the prices of real estate and commodities, and I understand that food prices have increased 30% in the last year. Europe's financial crisis has been out of the news for the holidays, but few people believe that there won't be major crises coming, like the ones that Greece and Ireland experienced last year, requiring bailouts. Pundits have also been pointing out that US states like California and Illinois may also go bankrupt in 2011. As far as I can tell, the assumption that almost everyone is making is that the economy is going to take off in 2011. The next assumption is that this will cause all financial problems to simply melt away. But as we've said many times, what they're hoping for is a reflating of the real estate and credit bubbles of five years ago, and that cannot happen. One way that we know that a major financial crisis is yet to come is because no serious effort is really being made to reduce the budget deficit. However, the deficit budget must come down, one way or another, and therefore a major financial crisis of some kind, probably forcing a US Treasury default, must occur. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Palestinians to submit anti-settlement resolution to U.N. Security Council The Palestinians are drafting a carefully worded resolution, to be presented to the U.N. Security Council, declaring that Jewish settlements in the West Bank are a major obstacle to ending the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The wording of the resolution will mirror criticisms of Israel by the Obama administration in recent months, so that the U.S. will be politically unable to veto the resolution in the Security Council. "It's a very moderate resolution by design because we don't want the U.S. to veto it," Palestinian chief negotiator Saeb Erekat said Sunday. "We want the international community to tell Israel that the settlements are against international law." <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-0103-mideast-palestinians-20110103,0,6548893.story "LA Times"#> =// .h4 Germany's Coptic Christians receiving threats from radical Muslims Following Saturday's bombing of a Coptic Christian church in Egypt, killing 21, Germany's Coptic Christian community has also reported receiving threats from radical Muslims. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,737493,00.html "Spiegel"#> =// .h4 Greece plans fence along border with Turkey The government of Greece plans to build a 206 km (128 mile) wall along the land border between Greece and Turkey, in order to keep out unwanted migrants. Each month, thousands of migrants, many from Africa and Asia, have been crossing from Turkey into Greece, using it as an entry point into the European Union. Many of them have been put into detention camps that have been called "degrading." The fence will be modeled along the 1,050 km fence along the U.S. border with Mexico. <#stdurl http://euobserver.com/9/31588 "EU Observer"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=605 "4-Jan-11 News -- Republicans say they'll cut government spending"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110103 3-Jan-11 News -- Britain celebrates the 400th anniversary of the King James Bible =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110103.head 3-Jan-11 News -- Britain celebrates the 400th anniversary of the King James Bible =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110103.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110103.loc ww2010.weblog.log1101 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110103.date 3-Jan-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110103.txt1 Home prices expected to fall another 30% =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110103.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Britain celebrates the 400th anniversary of the King James Bible" The year 2011 marks the 400th anniversary of the completion of the King James Bible, possibly the most influential English language book in history. <#inc ww2010.pic g110102b.jpg center "" "Psalm 23, King James Version"#> In his 2011 New Year message, the <#stdurl http://www.archbishopofcanterbury.org/3107 "Archbishop of Canterbury"#> said:
"When we try to make sense of our lives and of who we really are, it helps to have a strongly-defined story, a big picture of some kind in the background. As the King James Bible took hold of the imaginations of millions of people in the English-speaking world, it gave them just that - a big picture, a story in which their lives made sense."An article in the <#stdurl http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/books/features/battles-of-a-book-the-king-james-bibles-history-of-dissent-and-inspiration-2171902.html "Independent"#> has collected together some of the common English language phrases that originally appeared in the 1611 edition of the King James Bible:
"Today it is a commonplace to note that the words and rhythms of the KJB and its source translations shape the speech of countless millions who never open a bible or enter a church. Somehow, the language of the 1611 version never falls from grace (Galatians 5.4) even if its message falls on stony ground (Mark 4.5). In a secular age where ignorance of religion goes from strength to strength (Psalms 84.7) among lovers of filthy lucre (1 Timothy 3.8) who only want to eat, drink and be merry (Luke 12.19), we know for a certainty (Joshua 23.13) that these resonant words endure as a fly in the ointment (Ecclesiastes 10.1) and a thorn in the flesh (2 Corinthians 12.7) of the powers that be (Romans 13.1). They can still set the teeth on edge (Jeremiah 31.29) of those who try to worship God and Mammon (Matthew 6.24). But does this ancient book, proof that there is no new thing under the sun (Ecclesiastes 1.9), now cast its pearls before swine (Matthew 7.6), and act as a voice crying in the wilderness (Luke 3.4) – a drop in a bucket (Isaiah 40.15) of unbelief, no longer a sign of the times (Matthew 16.3) but a verbal stumbling-block (Leviticus 19.14) or else all things to all men (1 Corinthians 9.22) while the blind lead the blind (Matthew 15.14)?"From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the King James Bible was the product of a generational Awakening era. Awakening eras are those spectacular times of new ideas and new revolutions that appear midway between two crisis wars. Important Awakening eras in world history include the golden age of ancient Greece, the ministry of Jesus Christ, and the life of Mohammed and birth of Islam. (See <#hreftext ww2010.book.awakenings "Generational Dynamics: Great Awakenings in World History."#>) When King James took the throne of England in 1603, England was just recovering from the previous crisis war with Spain, which had climaxed with the failed attack of the 'Invincible' Spanish Armada in 1588. The war was seen as confrontation between the Catholics and the heretical Protestants, and the Armada attack was strongly supported by the Catholics and seen as the will of God. In the generational Recovery era that followed the disastrous collapse of the Armada attack, both sides concluded that the English victory was through divine intervention. In England, this resulted in the strengthening of the doctrine of divine right of Kings. The King would be second in authority only to God, and certainly not second in authority to the Pope in Rome. King James particularly adopted this doctrine. But as always happens, the kids growing up after a generational crisis war rebel against the austere rules and institutions set up by the survivors, who only wish to guarantee that no such war will ever happen again. This leads to a "generation gap," such as happened in America and Europe in the 1960s, and in Iran in the last two years. In 1603, this generation gap led to a remarkable event known as the <#stdurl http://history.hanover.edu/texts/ENGref/er88.html "Millenary Petition."#> Hundreds of Puritan reformist clergy expressed their outrage at what they called "popisms" -- rituals and procedures that too closely resembled the practices of the Pope and the Catholic Church. At the heart of the political dispute were arguments over the best translation of the Bible into English. There were several translations available, including one favored by the Puritans and one favored by King James and the traditionalists. In order to resolve the political dispute, the King created a committee of Puritan and traditional religious leaders, the Hampton Court Conference of January 1604. It soon became clear that none of the reforms requested by the Puritans would be granted. This led to the flight of Puritans to Amsterdam three years later, and after that to the migration to North America. But there was one major reform that everyone at the Conference agreed on: An authoritative version of the Bible was required, something in every day English that anyone could understand. This led to the commissioning of a new Bible translation, resulting in the King James Bible in 1611. The conflict over the doctrine of divine right of Kings did not go away, however, as Parliament was demanding greater power over taxation and policy. Disagreements between the King and Parliament led to England's next crisis war, the bloody English Civil War (also called the "Puritan Revolution") of the 1640s, climaxing in the beheading of King Charles I in 1649. The monarchy was abolished, and England had no King until the monarchy was restored in 1660 with Charles' son, Charles II, as King, but with vastly reduced powers. The divine right of Kings remained in name only until the next generational Awakening era climaxed in 1689 with the Glorious Revolution. The relationship between the monarchy and Parliament was finally sealed for good in the next crisis war, the War of the Spanish Succession, of the 1700s decade. In generational theory, great ideas are launched during Awakening eras, and either established or extinguished during subsequent Crisis eras. The Awakening era of the 1600s and 1610s decades was one of the most important in English history, resulting in the King James Bible and the Puritan Revolution. It was also important in American history, because it led to the Puritan migration to North America, and to the rejection of the monarchy that created the United States of America. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Role of English Catholics in Armada attack" While researching this report, I came across the article from the Catholic <#stdurl http://www.newadvent.org/cathen/01727c.htm "New Advent encyclopedia"#> on the Spanish Armada attack on England in 1588. The article describes how Catholics throughout Europe supported the Spanish Armada attack against the hated Protestant Queen Elizabeth. But the article contains the following paragraph:
"There is no doubt that all the exiles for religion at that time shared Allen's sentiments, but not so the Catholics in England. They had always been the most conservative of English parties. The resentment they felt at being persecuted led them to blame the queen's ministers, but not to question her right to rule. To them the great power of Elizabeth was evident, the forces and intentions of Spain were unknown quantities. They might, should, and did resist until complete justification was set before them, and this was in fact never attempted. Much, for instance, as we know of the Catholic clergy then laboring in England, we cannot find that any of them used religion to advance the cause of the Armada. Protestant and Catholic contemporaries alike agree that the English Catholics were energetic in their preparations against it."According to another <#stdurl http://www.britishbattles.com/spanish-war/spanish-armada.htm "source,"#> an English Catholic nobleman, Viscount Montague, led the defense against the Armada. In other words, the supposedly fanatical, ideological English Catholics, at war with the heretical Protestants, sided with their nation against the Catholics. I've previously mentioned that German-Americans overwhelmingly sided with America against the Nazis in World War II. (Another example is that millions of Catholics go to Church every Sunday, but they still use birth control at home.) We should be careful before we condemn all Muslims who are citizens of America or Europe. These people are going to be on our loyal allies, and we're going to need their help when the time comes. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Additional links" =// .h4 Home prices expected to fall another 30% <#inc ww2010.pic g110102.gif right "" "Home price index versus long-term trend (WSJ)"#> Home prices will have to fall another 30% from their current values, according to an analysis of the Case-Shiller home price index by Peter Schiff. Historically, US home prices have increased an average of 3.35% per year, just a little bit more than the rate of inflation. But since 1998, home prices have risen an average of 19.2% per year, putting them way above the long-term trend line, as shown by the adjoining graph. Home prices would have to decline 20% just to get back to the historic trend line, but Schiff says they're likely to overshoot the trend line, and fall by 30%. (This is an application of the Law of Mean Reversion.) According to Schiff, if the government hadn't intervened in the housing market, and had allowed prices to fall, then a lot more people would be able to afford homes now, and the real estate crisis would end sooner. <#stdurl http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304173704575578190261574342.html "Wall Street Journal"#> <#hreftext ww2010.wk.access "(Access)"#> =// .h4 Real estate out of reach of Beijing, China, college graduates Bubble real estate prices in Beijing are putting homes out of reach of college graduates. It used to be that college graduates with degrees in English, international trade and computer science were in high demand. But now supply has surpassed demand, and the average monthly wage of a recent graduate from a top Chinese university is around $400 per month -- just enough to buy half a square meter of an apartment in downtown Beijing. <#stdurl http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/12/30/china.economy/ "CNN"#> =// .h4 Anarchist and left-wing violence are on the rise in Europe Anarchist and left-wing violence are on the rise in Europe. <#stdurl http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2040403,00.html?xid=newsletter-daily "Time"#> =// .h4 Coptic Christians in Cairo clash with Egyptian police Dozens of Coptic Christians clashed with Egyptian riot police in Cairo on Sunday, following the Saturday bomb attack at a church in Alexandria that killed 21 people. Coptic Christians will be celebrating Christmas on January 6. <#stdurl http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-02/egyptian-christians-in-clashes-with-police-after-church-attack.html "Bloomberg"#> =// .h4 Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán becomes EU president The six-month rotating presidency of the European Union has just been assumed by Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, whom some call the last dictator in Europe. Orban has vowed to solve the "Roma problem" in Europe, but Hungary itself has a bit Roma Gypsies problem, with discrimination and numerous hate crimes directed against the Roma Gypsies. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,737283,00.html "Spiegel"#> =// .h4 Berlin, Germany, mosques targeted for arson and hate crimes German officials suspect that mosques in Berlin are becoming the targets of arson and hate crimes. <#stdurl http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,736337,00.html "Spiegel"#> (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=604 "3-Jan-11 News -- Britain celebrates the 400th anniversary of the King James Bible"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110102 2-Jan-11 News -- Worldwide condemnation for terrorist attack on Coptic Christian church in Alexandria, Egypt =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110102.head 2-Jan-11 News -- Worldwide condemnation for terrorist attack on Coptic Christian church in Alexandria, Egypt =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110102.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110102.loc ww2010.weblog.log1101 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110102.date 2-Jan-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110102.txt1 Accusations of a pattern of attacks against Christians =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110102.txt2 =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Worldwide condemnation for terrorist attack on Coptic Christian church in Alexandria, Egypt" Raw sectarian tensions in Egypt have been exposed by the car bombing of a Coptic Christian church that killed 21 people in Alexandria, Egypt, according to <#stdurl http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/01/20111114553109742.html "Al-Jazeera."#> The bombing sparked violent protests by furious Coptic Christians, and clashes with police in Alexandria. Coptic Christians make up about 10% of Egypt's 80 million population. Politicians and Muslim leaders throughout the Middle East condemned the bombing, according to <#stdurl http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Egyptian-President-Urge-Citizens-to-Denounce-Terrorism-Following-Church-Bombing------112743749.html "VOA."#> Hamas issued a press statement condemning the bombing, according to <#stdurl http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/2978/Egypt/Politics-/Hamas-denounces-attack-on-Coptic-church-in-Egypt-.aspx "Al-Ahram."#> However, many politicians in the West saw this as part of a continuing pattern of radical Muslim extremist attacks on Christians. An <#stdurl http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-egypt-church-attack-20110102,0,2931888.story "LA Times"#> analysis points to recent terrorist attacks on Christians in Iraq, Nigeria and other countries, and point out that Christian communities in countries such as Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Iran are shrinking, as Christians emigrate. A terrorist group linked to al-Qaeda is suspected of being responsible for the Alexandria bombing, according to <#stdurl http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4007435,00.html "Ynet."#> The accusation that al-Qaeda is attacking Christians is true, but it's only a small part of the picture. Al-Qaeda linked groups attack Shia Muslims, Sufis, Sikhs, Hindus and other religious groups in different countries. As we've said many times, the al-Qaeda strategy is to replicate Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, in order to turn another country into an Islamic state, this time a Sunni state. They've tried this, and continuted to try it, in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Yemen, Somalia and other countries, and now Egypt. The methodology is to trigger violence on the left and xenophobia on the right, and al-Qaeda appears to be succeeding. (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=603 "2-Jan-11 News -- Terrorist attack on Coptic Christian church in Alexandria, Egypt"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =// &&2 e110101 1-Jan-11 News -- Andrew Breitbart: Even Muslims are afraid to stand up to Islamists =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110101.head 1-Jan-11 News -- Andrew Breitbart: Even Muslims are afraid to stand up to Islamists =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110101.keys =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110101.loc ww2010.weblog.log1101 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110101.date 1-Jan-2011 =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110101.txt1 Updating the home page Conflict Risk Graphic =data ww2010.weblog.y2011.e110101.txt2 Today we have a couple of reports that will set the stage for the new year. Happy New Year everyone! =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Updating the Conflict Risk Graphic" =inc ww2010.cf.cf080811 p right On the right you see my little Conflict Risk graphic that appears on the home page of this web site. The last time that I updated it was in August, 2008, and today it's sadly out of date. It's time to update it. For each of the six regions named in the graphic, the risk level is supposed to reflect the level of risk that a war will occur in that region in the next six to twelve months. The six regions were chosen because, unlike other regions of the world, any local war in one of the six regions is likely to escalate into a world war a few months later. (See <#hreftext ww2010.i.danger041120 ""Six most dangerous regions in world.""#>) The Conflict Risk Level is not a Generational Dynamics prediction. It summarizes my personal views of the chances of war in each of the regions specified. In 2008, it seemed that full scale war could break out at any time in the Mideast, in the Caucasus and in Kashmir (between India and Pakistan). That's why, in all of these cases, I assigned a risk level of 3, the highest level. Today I have a slightly different view of those three regions. I've reduced the risk level to 2, but not because the underlying problems are any closer to resolution in any of the three regions. To the contrary, the underlying problems are much worse today, and when war finally comes, it will be worse than it would have been if it had started in 2008. What HAS happened is that I've become very impressed with the ability of world institutions to rush to any crisis and paper over the problems. Thus, crises in Kashmir, the Mideast and the Caucasus have all been quieted by means of such things as money or appeasement. There was a brief war in Gaza in early 2009, but it was kept carefully contained by world institutions. Thus, I have to conclude that there is not a high risk of war in the three regions in the next 6-12 months. I have to conclude that the chances are that any crisis that might occur will be papered over again. Or course, "medium risk" is not a trivial matter. Each of those regions is susceptible to a full-scale war that cannot be stopped by international institutions. But, in my opinion, the likelihood is medium, not high. Korea is a different matter. The North Koreans have made clear their intentions to provoke a full-scale war with the South. You can see the international institutions rushing to try to prevent such a war. The North Koreans seem to attack the South at will, and the response from the U.N., the U.S., Russia and China is to tell the South Koreans to sit still and not overreact. The Chinese even refuse to blame the North Koreans for their military attacks. Nonetheless, in my opinion, the North Koreans appear to be determined to thwart all of these international institutions. Therefore, the Conflict Risk Level for Korea is 3 (high). With regard to the global financial system, the ability for international institutions to paper over problems using quantitative easing, bailouts, and other measures, has been mind-boggling. These steps have held off financial panic so far, but they've created enormous new bubbles and distortions, so that when full-scale panic comes, it will be much worse than it would have been if it had happened in 2007 or 2008. However, financial crises in Europe and Asia are worsening, and Generational Dynamics predicts that a full-scale panic must occur. Thus, the risk for a major financial crisis is High, level 3. Finally, in 2008, World Health Organization (WHO) were warning of a coming H1N1 swine flu pandemic that winter. The worst didn't happen, but the risk level remains at Medium, level 2, since a severe pandemic could occur during this winter season. Here is the revised Conflict Risk graphic: =inc ww2010.cf.cf110101 p center In my opinion, the only high level dangers during the next 6-12 months are in Korea and in the global financial system. However, there are numerous medium level dangers. And if any one of these turns into a major crisis, then all of the others will immediately turn to risk level High - level 3. =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Introduction to article on Andrew Breitbart and Islamists" As readers know, I've been cross-posting many of my articles on the site <#stdurl http://BigPeace.com BigPeace.com#> , run by Andrew Breitbart, who is generally described by the press as a "right-winger." I requested an interview with Breitbart, and ended up with a very interesting discussion of his view of how the mainstream press is handling the problem of Islamist terrorism. My article has already appeared on <#stdurl http://bigpeace.com/jxenakis/2010/12/31/andrew-breitbart-even-muslims-are-afraid-to-stand-up-to-islamists/ "BigPeace,"#> and it drew a number of comments. The general tenor of these comments is that unless we expel all the Muslims, then the Muslims are going to replace American law with Sharia law. As I discussed in <#inc ww2010.weblog.ref e101107 ""American xenophobia on the Left and on the Right,""#> I have no idea what these people are talking about, or how they think this change is going to occur. On the other hand, the comments are probably no crazier than what we see and hear every day in Washington and on Wall Street. Once again, I have to quote Friedrich Nietzsche: "Insanity in individuals is something rare - but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule." Here is the article that I posted on BigPeace: =inc ww2010.h4 xxx "Andrew Breitbart: Even Muslims are afraid to stand up to Islamists" According to Andrew Breitbart, two of the bravest people in the world are Irshad Manji and M. Zuhdi Jasser, because they're outspoken Muslims who are standing up to the standard pro-Islamist narrative adopted by much of the mainstream media. Breitbart says that he started the BigPeace.com site because he wanted to provide a platform for other important narratives. <#inc ww2010.pic Breitbart.jpg center "" "Andrew Breitbart"#> He contrasts Manji and Jasser to Ibrahim Hooper, the National Communications Director for the <#stdurl http://www.cair.com/aboutus/cairnationalboardandstaff.aspx "Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR)"#>:
"Ibrahim Hooper has the ability to wield cultural Marxism, to cow reporters and newsrooms. He understands America's susceptibility to this brand of Orwellian newsthink - and uses alleged rights and illegitimate demands for "tolerance" in order to shut people up. These are rights that Muslim countries don't grant their own citizens. Their collective attacks use the American systems as a weapon against our own country, when they don't stand up to their own people's rights. This is a war in the broad sense of the term. Our way of life has been effectively challenged by a pervasive radical Islamist mindset that's going unopposed by Western societies. That war is being fought in a sophisticated way using media and technology and civil rights in the United States, and it's being used in the United Nations. We're at war in Afghanistan, and to a lesser extent now in Iraq, because of this greater often unspoken philosophical battle. It's a war against modernity that's being waged in countless ways. People claim plausible deniability that this war is not happening, and I refuse to accept that premise."Breitbart says that many Westerners are afraid to challenge this Islamist mindset. Not all Muslims are terrorists, he says, but just saying that some Muslims support terrorism is enough for the mainstream media to label you as a hater and intolerant.
"You can't be on a college campus and challenge the Islamist mindset without being shouted down. We're in a world that's in a constant state of something akin to permanent warfare. We're in multiple cold wars right now. And the mainstream press is self-editing itself to conform to the peace and love gobbledy-gook of the 60s and 70s that I disagree with. Do I believe that every Muslim is a terrorist? Of course not. I have Muslim friends. But they are afraid to stand on a soapbox and criticize their own religion for fear of their own lives. It's taken immense courage for Muslims like Irshad Manji and Zuhdi Jasser to criticize the radical mindset."Irshad Manji is a Muslim feminist and author of a <#stdurl http://www.pbs.org/weta/crossroads/about/show_faith_without_fear.html "PBS documentary"#> called "Faith Without Fear." She criticizes the culture of Islam that condones death threats against any Muslim who exhibits independent thinking, thus stripping Muslims of their God-given right to free expression. Manji herself has received death threats as a result of her work. M. Zuhdi Jasser is a devout Muslim, and President and Founder of the <#stdurl http://www.aifdemocracy.org/about/members.php "American Islamic Forum for Democracy (AIFD)."#> He founded AIFD in the wake of the 9/11 attacks on the United States as an effort to provide an American Muslim voice advocating for the preservation of the founding principles of the United States Consitution, liberty and freedom, and the separation of mosque and state. He was a Lieutenant Commander in the United States Navy, and received the Meritorious Service Medal. Breitbart says that he created <#stdurl http://BigPeace.com "BigPeace.com"#>, to provide a platform for other narratives avoided by the mainstream press, and he contrasts it to his other web sites, <#stdurl http://BigHollywood.Breitbart.com "BigHollywood"#>, <#stdurl http://BigJournalism.com "BigJournalism.com"#>, and <#stdurl http://BigGovernment.com "BigGovernment.com"#>.
"BigPeace is the one web site that I knew that I would have the least hands on involvement. So that's why I teamed up with three entities -- Frank Gaffney of the <#stdurl http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/index.xml "Center for Security Policy,"#> the military bloggers at <#stdurl http://www.blackfive.net/ "BlackFive,"#> and Peter Schweizer, a research fellow at the <#stdurl http://www.hoover.org/fellows/9706 "Hoover Insitution."#> The contributors to BigPeace are people you can trust because they have a "peace through strength" attitude. It's certainly not a site for doves. I'm a media guy, a cultural guy, a media analyst. I complain about a country where there's a 2 to 1 ratio of conservatives to liberals, and the majority is treated like a marginal minority. Only in the state of Israel is the situation worse - which constantly puts Israel on the defensive - they're held to a much higher standard than their adversaries. I created BigPeace because the press, especially during the Bush administration, put national security by the wayside. So there was a lot of stuff that needed to be corrected, and there needed to be more streams of information coming in. I certainly see the pervasive matrix of political correctness, making it impossible for certain narratives to come out, because of the multicultural Marxist attitudes that create a chilling effect in America's newsrooms. They're able to dictate what we can report, and dictate through pop media what our policies are."Breitbart referred to a 2003 controversy where <#stdurl http://edition.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0304/20/rs.00.html "CNN News exec Eason Jordan"#> admitted that CNN had withheld news stories of Saddam Hussein's brutality. CNN says that it had been protecting individual sources. But Breitbart sees it as part of the larger picture of distortions by the mainstream media.
"Saddam Hussein benefited greatly through intimidation of his own people, and he was able to even bribe CNN. Eason Jordan admitted that he wanted to keep the status of having CNN as the sole Bagdhad bureau, so he did Saddam's bidding. CNN treated Saddam with more respect and dignity than they did the President of the United States, and also [Israeli prime minister] Benjamin Netanyahu."My conversation with Andrew became most spirited when I suggested that the media have much less policy making power than he presumes. This is the Generational Dynamics view that major policies are driven by massive generational changes in attitude, and that journalists and politicians are followers, not leaders. However, Breitbart insists that this isn't true, and that the internet is a major world-changing phenomenon:
"So my big problem is the structure of the media, and how they're easily cowed. They have a much stronger position in fashioning policy than politicians do. The politicians react to the narrative. I'm less worried about politicians than I am about anchors and news reporters. And the more you realize how the sausage is made in the media, you realize that the media is the problem. I want them to get out there and start telling the truth - tell stories that the corrupt old media don't want to tell. The internet allows bloggers and citizen reporters to tell the truth. It has been an exceptional boon to the spread of democracy around the world. And the press, which should be at the forefront of celerating these advances, are opposed, because it encroaches on their monopoly."In explaining why he created BigPeace.com, Breitbart vividly describes hidebound, traditional mainstream journalists unable to escape the old ideas that they formulated in their childhoods in the 1960s and 1970s. They're now doubling down on these outdated ideas because they're no longer working. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these outdated ideas, and the political conflicts that result, are going to continue until a "regeneracy event" occurs, an event that regenerates civic unity for the first time since the end of World War II. (See <#hreftext ww2010.i.basics ""Basics of Generational Dynamics.""#>) Whatever this regeneracy event may turn out to be -- perhaps a new massive terrorist attack on American soil, or perhaps a disastrous military defeat overseas -- it will immediately terminate the political bickering and unite all Americans for the preservation of the United States and its way of life. And on that note, Happy New Year! (Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the <#stdurl http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=602 "1-Jan-11 News -- Andrew Breitbart: Even Muslims are afraid to stand up to Islamists"#> thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod =eof